Hello, all. Welcome to another edition of the paid subscriber’s mailbag. Firstly, I want to let everyone know that the comments section on the answers portion here is open to everyone, including free subscribers, so everyone may feel free to discuss the post.
Regards European conflict, that always seemed more likely than World War 3. However, despite both been a possibility, I expect the real change to be political, a switch from liberal to more conservative politics, with an emphasis on identity.
Yesterday, I wrote an article about German State TV posting an English language version of their 2021 documentary about the Ibiza Affair, the trap for Austria's right-wing that led to the downfall of the coalition government.
Despite new evidence showing that those politicians refused to participate in the corruption, and that the niece of the Russian oligarch was an actress, it has been presented to us again. I can only assume that's in response to Germany's politicians fear of the rise of their AFD, and its kindred spirit with the Austrian FPO.
It was the FPO that walked out of parliament, in protest against Zelensky being invited to speak, and in defence of their country's neutrality. So the documentary associate the right-wing with Russia again. It's a smear campaign.
It's happening across Europe. Belgium may split into two countries.
If war spreads through Europe, it will become a world war by default. A direct official war between the US & Russia would be a world war, all countries in the world would be forced to chose a side. It doesn't bare thinking about, but, it is becoming increasingly likely. This is why, in my humble opinion, Russia conducts the SMO in Ukraine the way it does, Russia is doing all it can to avoid escalation & to keep the conflict confined to Ukraine. With the whole Girkin/Strelkov controversy, what his advocates have never appreciated, is that had Russia defeated Ukraine rapidly, we would have seen an equally rapid escalation with the west, much more severe than what has actually occurred - they just don't get this, or don't want to get it. By going slow, being thorough, Russia gives itself time to build itself & prepare for potential conflict with the US directly, whilst at the same time they, the US/NATO get gradually weaker. In time I think this will come to be seen as an excellent strategy, it just may not seem that obvious now. Russia is trying to keep the conflict confined to the Ukraine theatre, & even Putin's comments about Poland entering western Ukraine can be seen in this context.
I agree completely. The most likely scenario for a panicked entry into Ukraine was Russia rolling everything up in the summer of 2022. I think that reaction potential is fading and even a wholesale collapse of the Ukrainian army or even the Zelensky government won’t necessarily prompt that anymore. For multiple reasons including the heat of the subject and the mood of western publics isn’t what it was then.
The US missed its chance to jump in with both feet (if it wanted that) and now it’s all complicated by hard reality, including it won’t be a cakewalk and there will be dead Americans and downed aircraft. Within a month or two Biden has to start thinking domestic politics. Dead US military in Ukraine is not a winning topic.
Bravo. I'm beginning to think you're a force of nature. So much good stuff here. Your disquisition on Western "democracy" in answer to question 5 is classic. For the US would add, gerrymandering (whoever wins the state legislature draws the map) , ID requirements (for which there is zero evidence of voter fraud), the electoral college, and limited polling places where the opposition votes. Additionally, Election Day is a work day and lines are often prohibitively long. And of course third-parties are virtually impossible. But the biggie is that it takes 10s of millions of dollars to run for Congress and billions to run for president--which is a fundamental reason the country is run by billionaires. Loved the CIA lady. Believe it is from "On Company Business", an absolute classic from the 80's. Where's Philip Agee when you need him? Speaking of the CIA and manipulated elections, Frank Church, the CIA's nemesis, was not re-elected. Whodathunk?
Agree completely. In line with ‘fraudulent democracy’ argument that Simplicius so effectively details, as well as your comments, I would add the suppression of third parties. For example, third parties’ candidates are required to collect thousands of petition signatures under differing and complicated formulas to qualify for the ballots. These signatures are then often challenged in court by the two main duopoly parties, so third party candidates must then spend precious campaigns funds to defend these signatures in court. The two main duopoly parties are always automatically qualified and have no such petition requirements. This is obvious election rigging that is never mentioned in the MSM regime media.
Thank you very much for your reply to my question Simplicius. I did not truly suggest that some members of the BRICS are "pawns" of the US, yet the level of influence of said country differs very much among its members, India included if we are honest. Be as it may, India retains some high-level strategic thinking among its diplomatic corp, while this is alas not the case any longer when it comes to Brazil (in fact, "Paraty", the Brazilian foreign ministry, has turned into a bit of a joke over the past 20 years or so). While you correctly note that BRICS is probably not the end solution to all problems, it does indeed remind us there once was an attempt at non-alignement, which may this time prove successful and truly disruptive.
We need to learn how to live in a FREE multipolar world (just the ordinary world back in human history). It doesn't mean we have no differences: JUST the opposite .
BRICS is only about dedollarization. There is no other component to it and even the dedollarization is completely voluntary and situational. Note no demand for S. Africa to leave the ICC treaty nor even any decision to move the summit.
Members, current and new, will begin to act more independently when they are able. But it probably won’t ever be a classic bloc making major decisions in concert or at the behest of a “leader”. It’s an informal, single issue club. And there significant advantages to the set up. Nobody is going to be forced to choose over an issue and room to maneuver in diplomacy and politics is of great value.
There’s no modern equivalent so it’s hard to compare. It’s probably closest to the original non-aligned (“third world”) movement of the early Cold War but even that was more ideological than specifically economic on a single issue.
I have no idea what happened to my comment....maybe I did not hit post?! So, I hope, it is not going to be sent twice. I really would like to ask if someone can help to locate more information on the Russian film on Bucha, which Simplicius posted preview here: свидетель (Witness).
It is not an easy matter to determine. I like to call him Simp (as long as he doesn't tell me otherwise), it seems like a warm display of affection and trust. On the other hand, I would not like to be called Mr. Simp: that sounds too pathetic...
The "private" sector still exists within the context of the state.
Nothing can be supplied (at least directly) without the approval of the state where that private producer is located.
In terms of weapons there's no real way of knowing. We saw some armoured cars (not on the battlefield but still) and (maybe) some "Iranian" shells produced in China. No clue if the latter turned out to be real or not.
I live in China. The "state" is not omnipotent. Dual use are not controlled. Buyers don't need a chit from CPC to buy. Look at AliExpress website. China's business is too big.
Things that are illegal are openly advertised on their e-commerce sites. You can buy full tactical gear including plates and webbing from these e-commerce sites.
That's the reality of China. Not some bullshit US version of evil commie watching everything you do.
But anything obvious weapons is made in state own enterprises. Chechen showed off Chinese made armoured cars but they could have gotten them from Moscow off a batch they bought from the Chinese earlier.
(👏🏼 .. Subscribers questions, especially Navalny, for me 🙏🏼)
(👏🏼 .. Simplicius) I honestly don’t know how much sleep you get but it couldn’t be a lot 😵💫
( 👏🏼 .. also, I know that Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris take a lot of your information onboard, so if you don’t mind I’d like to thank those guys for keeping us informed with well balanced views)
I’m sure most of the subscribers have their own strong opinions but without our ‘analysts’, ‘mentors’, ‘influencers’, ‘guides’ etc we’d all feel a little disjointed if not for these people putting the pieces together, or at least validating our own thoughts.
Alex is currently walking around Moscow. I had no idea it was such a beautiful city, and the people seem much healthier and fit than in the West. Americans need to see this.
These tend to be best value for time spent. Each of them can be a little self-indulgent in terms of the viewer's time when not disciplined by the other.
Another huge ammo dump hit by drones in Crimea. Ukrainians are getting better at targeting dumps, either by local intel, SBS/SAS ops or by targeting supply by West images.
You'd think the staff would learn by now "eggs in one basket" rule.
Keep in mind that we are talking about several MILLION individual pieces of "ammo" (shells, flares, mines, grenades, bullets, etc) being moved into the theater on a monthly basis. There is ALWAYS going to be a place where some of it is stored, if only temporarily.
Just have a gander at WW2 statistics on Allied ammo dumps that self-exploded (i.e. not attacked by the enemy) and you'll realize just what a top-notch job Russia is actually doing on a purely logistical level.
Re: the Vatican role, that was discussed. I think if you come from an Orthodox Christian culture, you are likely to be more aware of how important a factor this is - it doesn't mean others can't gain an understanding, it's just that in the Russian, or say Serbian cultural context (that I come from) we happen to be sensitive to the extremes to which the Vatican has obsessed with destroying Orthodox Christianity. The Vatican does not view the Islamic "threat" as at all acute, as evidence by their ambivalence towards the eradication of Catholic Christianity in Syria, in which they barely raised their voice, & the Islamic migrations into Europe, which they have voiced concern about but to no where near the extent as the issue would require of them. The Vatican in & of itself does not have much power, like certain banking families we could mention, their power is mainly subversive. But this subversive power is huge, & its reach goes far & wide. In the context of Ukraine, the Vatican is at the centre of the civilisational aspect of this war, which underlies the west/NATO crusade against Russia. So it is not the Vatican individually that is critical, it is the Vatican as a key pillar of perceived western civilization that is crucial here. This may seem a bit vague & insubstantial, but if one takes all the activities concerning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the role of the Constantinople Patriarchate of Bartholomew - the Vatican is central to all of this. Although Orthodox Christianity is comparatively weak, it is the central institution in the national consciousness of Russians & Serbs, that is why NATO went to such lengths to attack Serbia back in 1999 & occupy Kosovo-Metohija. From a western perspective, break the back of Orthodox Christianity, you will break the back of Russian civilization & nationhood. The west used their assault against us Serbs in the 1990s as a prototype live exercise for taking on Russia. The subversion of western intel against the Serbian Orthodox Church is huge, books could be written about it, western embassies in Serbia have over the years pressurised the government into abandoning the Cyrillic script, even though it is constitutionally designated as the official script, you wouldn't know it if you visit Serbia, you see the Latin script everywhere. All this relates to Ukraine.
All the way back to the original split and the conversion of Eastern Europe. Not to mention actual crusades against Orthodoxy. I think it’s just not a facet well understood by westerners unless they’ve spent significant time in Orthodox countries and/or studied religion and religious history. Even if/when it’s not a prime factor in geopolitics it’s always beneath the surface.
Re Taiwan-China, have you heard about Tom Luongo's theory that the Chinese showed some muscle with their Treasury debt holdings in the market when Janet Yellen went to Beijing? and moved the spread/yield (if I understand this correctly), in order to demonstrate that they could make or break the US dollar. Apparently, according to this line of thinking, the Vilnius summit was such a disaster for Ukraine and NATO because the Chinese exerted pressure to limit the assistance that the US could offer Zelenski et al.
Does anyone have any evidence to support or refute this explanation?
You can look at a chart of the 10 year yield and it did have a rise starting on June 28th that peaked on July 7th. However there was an even more dramatic rise and fall back in March. The rise in rates in July doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary. But who knows?
I have been keenly interested in global macroeconomics and the way the world works since 2007. I notice BRICS and de-dollarisation getting a lot of attention when discussing broader Russian strategy. I would like to draw attention therefore to the fact manufacturing powerhouses, such as Vietnam, have enormous dollar denominated trade surpluses with the US. It is not just that the figures are eye watering, but it was this surge in printing press dollar liquidity over the last few decades that lifted these nations out of poverty. This bond is the reason that words like Chimerica exist. It is not something that they want instantly broken and so we must see de-dollarisation as more of a long term strategy of weaning off. It is possible that banking system instability in the west could force a crash and switch to CBDC, and thus could ultimately force a decoupling, but this scenario seems obscure. So if we are to tie the Ukraine situation to this general de-dollarisation strategy, we are saying that the Ukraine situation will go on for decades. Or that the BRICS and other nations have a strategy for replacing USD as reserve currency of choice more rapidly.
Well, it's all about perspective. We know Russia greatly degraded Ukraine but in the grand over all scheme, I was simply pointing out that Ukraine is still functioning as a state, most cities still function as if there's no war even going on. So my point is that, it takes exponentially more missiles than that to truly completely collapse a country into the stone age or something along those lines. And the West simply doesn't have and will never have that many munitions (without talking about nukes) which can do that to Russia
“So my point is that, it takes exponentially more missiles than that to truly completely collapse a country into the stone age or something along those lines.”
Sure, I do not dispute it. Nevertheless, there WAS an attack of Moscow with a drone that got through the Russian defense.
I would have expected you to at least mention it with perhaps a short comment in the last section, “Odds and Ends” (my term) you always end your articles with. Today, for example, you very briefly mentioned Gonzalo Lira who got out of detention.
With all respect, Lira's liberation is of far less material importance on the war than the drone attack that got through. “Well, it's all about perspective.”
While Russian economy certainly held well against the sanctions so far it's not immune to the overall problems the world is facing.
While many claim that Russian Central Bank is simply subservient to the IMF, which is true, since Russia is a member of the WTO, there's more to it that that. Recent raise of the interest rate by 1p.p, with an expected additional raise later this Autumn, is a desperate attempt to balance what cannot be balanced by monetary authorities.
With an economy dependent on importation Russia must maintain a strong Ruble. Strong Ruble makes people buy more imported goods. This gives the economy a certain boost, but raises inflation. Central banks only have one way to beat that - by raising interest rates, slowing the economy down. That, in turn, hurts the small/medium businesses who can't access cheap loans, hurting Russia's attempts to become more independent from imports. Thus the cycle continues.
Another issue is the worker shortage. Impressively low unemployment numbers are the other side of that coin - many sectors of Russian economy report up to 70% worker shortages. Basically, everyone who can be monetarily motivated to work are already doing so.
These issues are not unique to Russia, of course - pretty much every country faces them. Even China is not immune, but in its own unique way - 30% unemployment amongst the fresh graduates is serious. However, Russia is uniquely damaged by sanctions and restrictions, cutting many potential ways for them to try and improve the situation.
On the other hand, it forces them to think out of the box, even though they're not doing it so far, relying on old methods. Perhaps some new economic model will arise out of necessity, or the Western sanctions might yet succeed.
It’s interesting because there are heterodox economic thinkers in Russia and in relatively influential positions. It’s probably a debate inside the Kremlin that we’re just not privy to, and so far the standard economic model is winning the debate.
"With an economy dependent on importation Russia must maintain a strong Ruble."
Russia does not have an economy dependent on importation though. They have a positive balance of trade which is another way to say they are net exporters. They export more than they import.
Net exporting countries tend to like a weaker currency for themselves. It makes their exports more affordable to other countries, which in turn creates more jobs.
Regards European conflict, that always seemed more likely than World War 3. However, despite both been a possibility, I expect the real change to be political, a switch from liberal to more conservative politics, with an emphasis on identity.
Yesterday, I wrote an article about German State TV posting an English language version of their 2021 documentary about the Ibiza Affair, the trap for Austria's right-wing that led to the downfall of the coalition government.
Despite new evidence showing that those politicians refused to participate in the corruption, and that the niece of the Russian oligarch was an actress, it has been presented to us again. I can only assume that's in response to Germany's politicians fear of the rise of their AFD, and its kindred spirit with the Austrian FPO.
It was the FPO that walked out of parliament, in protest against Zelensky being invited to speak, and in defence of their country's neutrality. So the documentary associate the right-wing with Russia again. It's a smear campaign.
It's happening across Europe. Belgium may split into two countries.
What really fascinates me is - like no one learnt any lesson from WWI and the slide from politics into the world conflagration!
Europe is a history of war and identity politics. Consequently, it's the best history lesson but the neocons aren't interested in education.
If war spreads through Europe, it will become a world war by default. A direct official war between the US & Russia would be a world war, all countries in the world would be forced to chose a side. It doesn't bare thinking about, but, it is becoming increasingly likely. This is why, in my humble opinion, Russia conducts the SMO in Ukraine the way it does, Russia is doing all it can to avoid escalation & to keep the conflict confined to Ukraine. With the whole Girkin/Strelkov controversy, what his advocates have never appreciated, is that had Russia defeated Ukraine rapidly, we would have seen an equally rapid escalation with the west, much more severe than what has actually occurred - they just don't get this, or don't want to get it. By going slow, being thorough, Russia gives itself time to build itself & prepare for potential conflict with the US directly, whilst at the same time they, the US/NATO get gradually weaker. In time I think this will come to be seen as an excellent strategy, it just may not seem that obvious now. Russia is trying to keep the conflict confined to the Ukraine theatre, & even Putin's comments about Poland entering western Ukraine can be seen in this context.
I agree that Putin has shown restraint, even in the face of pressure from his own people.
Vladimir Vladimirovich follows the sage advice from The Traveling Wilburys: “Handle with Care”
Proof that there are still good American teachers :)
I agree completely. The most likely scenario for a panicked entry into Ukraine was Russia rolling everything up in the summer of 2022. I think that reaction potential is fading and even a wholesale collapse of the Ukrainian army or even the Zelensky government won’t necessarily prompt that anymore. For multiple reasons including the heat of the subject and the mood of western publics isn’t what it was then.
The US missed its chance to jump in with both feet (if it wanted that) and now it’s all complicated by hard reality, including it won’t be a cakewalk and there will be dead Americans and downed aircraft. Within a month or two Biden has to start thinking domestic politics. Dead US military in Ukraine is not a winning topic.
Big Simp. Ok, that made me laugh. Now, back to reading and viewing.
Great questions and superb answers, thank you so much, Simplicius! The Garden of Knowledge is well nourished and watered, in pristine condition.
Great questions and superb answers and… wonderful comments!
Bravo. I'm beginning to think you're a force of nature. So much good stuff here. Your disquisition on Western "democracy" in answer to question 5 is classic. For the US would add, gerrymandering (whoever wins the state legislature draws the map) , ID requirements (for which there is zero evidence of voter fraud), the electoral college, and limited polling places where the opposition votes. Additionally, Election Day is a work day and lines are often prohibitively long. And of course third-parties are virtually impossible. But the biggie is that it takes 10s of millions of dollars to run for Congress and billions to run for president--which is a fundamental reason the country is run by billionaires. Loved the CIA lady. Believe it is from "On Company Business", an absolute classic from the 80's. Where's Philip Agee when you need him? Speaking of the CIA and manipulated elections, Frank Church, the CIA's nemesis, was not re-elected. Whodathunk?
Agree completely. In line with ‘fraudulent democracy’ argument that Simplicius so effectively details, as well as your comments, I would add the suppression of third parties. For example, third parties’ candidates are required to collect thousands of petition signatures under differing and complicated formulas to qualify for the ballots. These signatures are then often challenged in court by the two main duopoly parties, so third party candidates must then spend precious campaigns funds to defend these signatures in court. The two main duopoly parties are always automatically qualified and have no such petition requirements. This is obvious election rigging that is never mentioned in the MSM regime media.
My favorite: "Elections Are Like A Toy Steering Wheel For Babies."--Caitlin Johnstone
I was told by a lawyer 10 years ago that it costs 100,000 just to walk into a Federal court. Is that Democratic ?
Thank you very much for your reply to my question Simplicius. I did not truly suggest that some members of the BRICS are "pawns" of the US, yet the level of influence of said country differs very much among its members, India included if we are honest. Be as it may, India retains some high-level strategic thinking among its diplomatic corp, while this is alas not the case any longer when it comes to Brazil (in fact, "Paraty", the Brazilian foreign ministry, has turned into a bit of a joke over the past 20 years or so). While you correctly note that BRICS is probably not the end solution to all problems, it does indeed remind us there once was an attempt at non-alignement, which may this time prove successful and truly disruptive.
We need to learn how to live in a FREE multipolar world (just the ordinary world back in human history). It doesn't mean we have no differences: JUST the opposite .
BRICS is only about dedollarization. There is no other component to it and even the dedollarization is completely voluntary and situational. Note no demand for S. Africa to leave the ICC treaty nor even any decision to move the summit.
Members, current and new, will begin to act more independently when they are able. But it probably won’t ever be a classic bloc making major decisions in concert or at the behest of a “leader”. It’s an informal, single issue club. And there significant advantages to the set up. Nobody is going to be forced to choose over an issue and room to maneuver in diplomacy and politics is of great value.
There’s no modern equivalent so it’s hard to compare. It’s probably closest to the original non-aligned (“third world”) movement of the early Cold War but even that was more ideological than specifically economic on a single issue.
my apologies, I didn't mean to phrase it like you had suggested it, it was more of a rhetorical thing I myself was suggesting for the sake of argument
No offence was taken :)
I have no idea what happened to my comment....maybe I did not hit post?! So, I hope, it is not going to be sent twice. I really would like to ask if someone can help to locate more information on the Russian film on Bucha, which Simplicius posted preview here: свидетель (Witness).
United States War College just uploaded 5 videos on Future war fighting. May 2023 symposium on landpower.
Thank you Simplicius, this has been a fascinating and granular read for me. Don’t think people should call you Simp but maybe you don’t mind!
😁 (Simp) I was thinking the same thing ..
This topic may be the subject of a question in the next edition of Subscriber Mailbag Answers 😁
It is not an easy matter to determine. I like to call him Simp (as long as he doesn't tell me otherwise), it seems like a warm display of affection and trust. On the other hand, I would not like to be called Mr. Simp: that sounds too pathetic...
Hehe yep agreed, I’m sure Simplicius has broad shoulders.
Broad shoulders, of course. That is beyond any doubt!
Or Big Simp!
Big S should suffice
What does China supplies to Russia? Russia can buy any amounts of chips from private sector Aliexpress as long as Russia can pay.
155mm artillery shells?
The "private" sector still exists within the context of the state.
Nothing can be supplied (at least directly) without the approval of the state where that private producer is located.
In terms of weapons there's no real way of knowing. We saw some armoured cars (not on the battlefield but still) and (maybe) some "Iranian" shells produced in China. No clue if the latter turned out to be real or not.
I live in China. The "state" is not omnipotent. Dual use are not controlled. Buyers don't need a chit from CPC to buy. Look at AliExpress website. China's business is too big.
Things that are illegal are openly advertised on their e-commerce sites. You can buy full tactical gear including plates and webbing from these e-commerce sites.
That's the reality of China. Not some bullshit US version of evil commie watching everything you do.
But anything obvious weapons is made in state own enterprises. Chechen showed off Chinese made armoured cars but they could have gotten them from Moscow off a batch they bought from the Chinese earlier.
No state is omnipotent.
But most relatively rich states have the power to restrict business if they really want to do so.
Export controls do work most of the time if there is no significant 3rd party intermediaries.
China is not applying any restrictions on trade with Russia.
(👏🏼 .. Subscribers questions, especially Navalny, for me 🙏🏼)
(👏🏼 .. Simplicius) I honestly don’t know how much sleep you get but it couldn’t be a lot 😵💫
( 👏🏼 .. also, I know that Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris take a lot of your information onboard, so if you don’t mind I’d like to thank those guys for keeping us informed with well balanced views)
I’m sure most of the subscribers have their own strong opinions but without our ‘analysts’, ‘mentors’, ‘influencers’, ‘guides’ etc we’d all feel a little disjointed if not for these people putting the pieces together, or at least validating our own thoughts.
For 30 min summaries Alex Christoforou - https://m.youtube.com/c/AlexChristoforou/videos
For 60 min detailed summaries Alexander Mercouris - https://m.youtube.com/c/AlexanderMercourisReal/videos
You’re welcome
Alex is currently walking around Moscow. I had no idea it was such a beautiful city, and the people seem much healthier and fit than in the West. Americans need to see this.
Oh same here, it’s absolutely amazing !! ... and I’ve never seen so many e-scooters or e-bikes 😝
Don't forget their discussions with each other - https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos
and with guests -
https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/streams
These tend to be best value for time spent. Each of them can be a little self-indulgent in terms of the viewer's time when not disciplined by the other.
I watch every video they produce as soon as it comes out.
I use Telegram
https://t.me/alexchristoforouofficial
And I belong to the Locals Community
https://theduran.locals.com
Thanks 👍🏼, I would too but I enjoy listening to Alex & Alexander while I’m on the road, they are the ones who mentioned Simplicius and here I am.
I found the Duran channel earlier this year and consider it a superb channel with extremely insightful commentary.
Another huge ammo dump hit by drones in Crimea. Ukrainians are getting better at targeting dumps, either by local intel, SBS/SAS ops or by targeting supply by West images.
You'd think the staff would learn by now "eggs in one basket" rule.
Keep in mind that we are talking about several MILLION individual pieces of "ammo" (shells, flares, mines, grenades, bullets, etc) being moved into the theater on a monthly basis. There is ALWAYS going to be a place where some of it is stored, if only temporarily.
Just have a gander at WW2 statistics on Allied ammo dumps that self-exploded (i.e. not attacked by the enemy) and you'll realize just what a top-notch job Russia is actually doing on a purely logistical level.
Re: the Vatican role, that was discussed. I think if you come from an Orthodox Christian culture, you are likely to be more aware of how important a factor this is - it doesn't mean others can't gain an understanding, it's just that in the Russian, or say Serbian cultural context (that I come from) we happen to be sensitive to the extremes to which the Vatican has obsessed with destroying Orthodox Christianity. The Vatican does not view the Islamic "threat" as at all acute, as evidence by their ambivalence towards the eradication of Catholic Christianity in Syria, in which they barely raised their voice, & the Islamic migrations into Europe, which they have voiced concern about but to no where near the extent as the issue would require of them. The Vatican in & of itself does not have much power, like certain banking families we could mention, their power is mainly subversive. But this subversive power is huge, & its reach goes far & wide. In the context of Ukraine, the Vatican is at the centre of the civilisational aspect of this war, which underlies the west/NATO crusade against Russia. So it is not the Vatican individually that is critical, it is the Vatican as a key pillar of perceived western civilization that is crucial here. This may seem a bit vague & insubstantial, but if one takes all the activities concerning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the role of the Constantinople Patriarchate of Bartholomew - the Vatican is central to all of this. Although Orthodox Christianity is comparatively weak, it is the central institution in the national consciousness of Russians & Serbs, that is why NATO went to such lengths to attack Serbia back in 1999 & occupy Kosovo-Metohija. From a western perspective, break the back of Orthodox Christianity, you will break the back of Russian civilization & nationhood. The west used their assault against us Serbs in the 1990s as a prototype live exercise for taking on Russia. The subversion of western intel against the Serbian Orthodox Church is huge, books could be written about it, western embassies in Serbia have over the years pressurised the government into abandoning the Cyrillic script, even though it is constitutionally designated as the official script, you wouldn't know it if you visit Serbia, you see the Latin script everywhere. All this relates to Ukraine.
I have allowed myself to refer to this matter in point 2 of my comment (see below)
All the way back to the original split and the conversion of Eastern Europe. Not to mention actual crusades against Orthodoxy. I think it’s just not a facet well understood by westerners unless they’ve spent significant time in Orthodox countries and/or studied religion and religious history. Even if/when it’s not a prime factor in geopolitics it’s always beneath the surface.
Re Taiwan-China, have you heard about Tom Luongo's theory that the Chinese showed some muscle with their Treasury debt holdings in the market when Janet Yellen went to Beijing? and moved the spread/yield (if I understand this correctly), in order to demonstrate that they could make or break the US dollar. Apparently, according to this line of thinking, the Vilnius summit was such a disaster for Ukraine and NATO because the Chinese exerted pressure to limit the assistance that the US could offer Zelenski et al.
Does anyone have any evidence to support or refute this explanation?
You can look at a chart of the 10 year yield and it did have a rise starting on June 28th that peaked on July 7th. However there was an even more dramatic rise and fall back in March. The rise in rates in July doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary. But who knows?
All I know is Yelled said her meeting was a success, ergo it wasn't.
I have been keenly interested in global macroeconomics and the way the world works since 2007. I notice BRICS and de-dollarisation getting a lot of attention when discussing broader Russian strategy. I would like to draw attention therefore to the fact manufacturing powerhouses, such as Vietnam, have enormous dollar denominated trade surpluses with the US. It is not just that the figures are eye watering, but it was this surge in printing press dollar liquidity over the last few decades that lifted these nations out of poverty. This bond is the reason that words like Chimerica exist. It is not something that they want instantly broken and so we must see de-dollarisation as more of a long term strategy of weaning off. It is possible that banking system instability in the west could force a crash and switch to CBDC, and thus could ultimately force a decoupling, but this scenario seems obscure. So if we are to tie the Ukraine situation to this general de-dollarisation strategy, we are saying that the Ukraine situation will go on for decades. Or that the BRICS and other nations have a strategy for replacing USD as reserve currency of choice more rapidly.
Excellent Q&A piece from you, as usual, well thought through, based on facts, just like the Western narrative 😉
Joking aside, you flummoxed me with this comment:
“…… even with this mass amount of 5000+ missiles, Russia has hardly damaged the relatively tiny and underdeveloped country of Ukraine.”
Huh? Hardly damaged? The part of the Ukraine that is subject to Russia's attacks has been just about turned into a big pile of rubble.
So, there must be a misunderstanding from my side.
Well, it's all about perspective. We know Russia greatly degraded Ukraine but in the grand over all scheme, I was simply pointing out that Ukraine is still functioning as a state, most cities still function as if there's no war even going on. So my point is that, it takes exponentially more missiles than that to truly completely collapse a country into the stone age or something along those lines. And the West simply doesn't have and will never have that many munitions (without talking about nukes) which can do that to Russia
“So my point is that, it takes exponentially more missiles than that to truly completely collapse a country into the stone age or something along those lines.”
Sure, I do not dispute it. Nevertheless, there WAS an attack of Moscow with a drone that got through the Russian defense.
I would have expected you to at least mention it with perhaps a short comment in the last section, “Odds and Ends” (my term) you always end your articles with. Today, for example, you very briefly mentioned Gonzalo Lira who got out of detention.
With all respect, Lira's liberation is of far less material importance on the war than the drone attack that got through. “Well, it's all about perspective.”
One thing i want to add is about Russian economy.
While Russian economy certainly held well against the sanctions so far it's not immune to the overall problems the world is facing.
While many claim that Russian Central Bank is simply subservient to the IMF, which is true, since Russia is a member of the WTO, there's more to it that that. Recent raise of the interest rate by 1p.p, with an expected additional raise later this Autumn, is a desperate attempt to balance what cannot be balanced by monetary authorities.
With an economy dependent on importation Russia must maintain a strong Ruble. Strong Ruble makes people buy more imported goods. This gives the economy a certain boost, but raises inflation. Central banks only have one way to beat that - by raising interest rates, slowing the economy down. That, in turn, hurts the small/medium businesses who can't access cheap loans, hurting Russia's attempts to become more independent from imports. Thus the cycle continues.
Another issue is the worker shortage. Impressively low unemployment numbers are the other side of that coin - many sectors of Russian economy report up to 70% worker shortages. Basically, everyone who can be monetarily motivated to work are already doing so.
These issues are not unique to Russia, of course - pretty much every country faces them. Even China is not immune, but in its own unique way - 30% unemployment amongst the fresh graduates is serious. However, Russia is uniquely damaged by sanctions and restrictions, cutting many potential ways for them to try and improve the situation.
On the other hand, it forces them to think out of the box, even though they're not doing it so far, relying on old methods. Perhaps some new economic model will arise out of necessity, or the Western sanctions might yet succeed.
It’s interesting because there are heterodox economic thinkers in Russia and in relatively influential positions. It’s probably a debate inside the Kremlin that we’re just not privy to, and so far the standard economic model is winning the debate.
"With an economy dependent on importation Russia must maintain a strong Ruble."
Russia does not have an economy dependent on importation though. They have a positive balance of trade which is another way to say they are net exporters. They export more than they import.
Net exporting countries tend to like a weaker currency for themselves. It makes their exports more affordable to other countries, which in turn creates more jobs.