Today, Igor Girkin aka Strelkov was arrested under Section 2 of Article 280 for ‘public incitement of extremism’, fulfilling his long-sought-after martyrdom. Soon afterwards, his right hand man Pavel Gubarev was also arrested for creating an illegal picket for Strelkov’s release, though it’s said Gubarev was quickly released with a mere citation:
Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin:
"Mr President, colleagues.
According to information provided to the service by several sources, officials in Warsaw are gradually coming to an understanding that no kind of Western assistance to Kiev can support Ukraine in reaching the goals of this assistance. Moreover, they are beginning to understand that Ukraine will be defeated in only the matter of time.
In this regard, the Polish authorities are getting more intent on taking the western parts of Ukraine under control by deploying their troops there. There are plans to present this measure as the fulfillment of allied obligations within the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian security initiative, the so-called Lublin Triangle.
We see that plans also call for significantly increasing the number of personnel of the combined Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, which operates under the auspices of this so-called Lublin Triangle.
We believe that it is necessary to keep a close eye on these dangerous plans of the Polish authorities."
Whatever the fuck Strelkov's story was? Just like Gonzalo Lira. You push your luck far enough, and it runs out. I have zero sympathy. The Chinese have a saying. The high nail gets the hammer. If you are going to fuck with them? You have to go grey man. Lone wolf. Use a rifle, not your mouth.
What the heck is going on with these guys like Priggo, Gubarev and Strelkov? It's like they're asking to be sent off to a Siberian work prison or something. I mean, seriously what is it that they think they're going to accomplish by goading Putin's administration? So they want the "slow" pace picked up - Okay, but that by nature involves more risks of a certain type. Grown men being this impatient reminds me of the American Neocons during the Bush/Cheney years. Listening to people like that never ends well and I'm sure Putin knows this.
Not a lot of good news for Ukraine. Would assume that Poland wouldn't be mad enough to want to take on a direct war with Russia, however they could well believe, perhaps rightly, that they could take Western Ukraine without a direct confrontation. Things may not be likely to get any prettier soon but more convoluted is certainly on the cards.
Poland coming in to "save" Western Ukraine could well be spun as a NATO victory. Ukraine due to its incompetence and corruption wasted the generous NATO assistance and completely ignored the superior military strategy suggested, Poland comes in to bravely stop the Russian hordes from their planned invasion of Europe. Russia balks with fear at the sight of an actual NATO force etc.
I am really curious what this point from Putin refers to...... I have no idea RE Czechoslovakia! --- “Poland seized part of Lithuania, seized its historical lands from Russia and participated in the division of Czechoslovakia, taking advantage of the civil war.” Any suggestion, please?
Poor Igor, he was given more than enough time to repent. Thus, rather than wasting resources to feeding people like him, it would be beneficial to get him an AK, a vest strapped with remote-detonated-TNT and march him to the front. His death will cleanse his name.
So you're saying that because Strelkov was stridently critical of Putin, this make it somehow less than outrageous that he's being imprisoned for stating his opinion?
If it's illegal to criticize Putin, how does this effect the public opinion polls claiming that Putin has a high approval rating? Does the average Russian feel safe to state a true opinion? Or does every nail that sticks up, get hammered down in one way or another?
This arrest only plays into the hands of the Neocons who claim that Russia is a totalitarian state led by a despot.
Stelkov is a bump in the road—significantly insignificant. What matters is how Russia does over the next 6 months—little else. And what matters, too, is Washington's assessment of the war. Will they apply a tourniquet or encourage bleed-out? If it's bleed out, proxies will bleed--particularly those next in line—the Poles and the Lithuanians. And would expect truly horrific terrorist attacks on Mother Russia. The main threat of a push toward recklessness is not nutty Strelkov and his group, it is the prospect of major terror attacks in Russia. The outrage will be well nigh impossible to bottle up. Terror (and economics) has always been The Empire's trump card in international affairs. The slaughter of innocents plays to The Hegemon's interest--provoking a reckless response. Kremlin, forewarned is forearmed. This path would be standard operating procedure if not for...yes...China. Shoot your wad with Russia, oops, now how do we screw with China? Perhaps The Empire will see that cut and run—“oh well, we tried”—is advantageous. Then the tap goes dry for Ukraine and the terror option is turned off. We'll see.
"The more likely thing will be the continual expansion of Russian operations in the Svatove-Kremennaya region and gradually branching out from there, but we’ll see if we get wind of any new indications to point to something greater."
This does indeed seem the more likely scenario at this point. Recall that one of the reasons Russia pulled back from these areas last year is that they did not have the manpower in place to defend them properly. It would seem they appear to be preparing to expand the frontline now well into Kharkov, so they are amassing the necessary forces to support that effort and defend it later. I have heard estimates from 100K to 160K troops massed. I am not a military expert, but I don't believe this is enough to take a city like Kharkov, unless of course the Ukrainian defenses collapse on the way, so perhaps they will be best utilised in driving towards Lyman and Izyum, taking the towns and preparing for the final offensive towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. I believe the first objective will always be to liberate the remaining Donbass regions along with Kherson and Zaporizhia. But of course, this is war - and plans change and methods adapt.
Isn’t it laughable when we roll back the clock to 2008:
“WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland’s then leader that they divide Ukraine between themselves as far back as 2008, Poland’s parliamentary speaker, Radoslaw Sikorski, said in an interview published by the U.S. Politico website.”
“He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine. … This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow.”
“We made it very, very clear to them — we wanted nothing to do with this,” Sikorski said.
Sikorski’s account is not the first suggestion that Russia was seeking Poland’s support in partitioning Ukraine.
Again, while he did great work fighting 8 years ago - this has never meant he has the least bit of credibility in strategy, tactics, politics or anything else above unit level leadership. Nor has he demonstrated any since then.
Re: Poland
I would note that Polish troops in West Ukraine aren't necessarily just to replace/augment Ukraine's military. Let's not forget that Polish troops "defending" West Ukraine could effectively also mean Poland annexing it - de facto if not de jure - along the lines of: we'll (Poles) hold down the fort here in Lvov and Ivano-Frenkel while you poor Ukrainian saps continue to die on the front lines. And then when Ukraine collapses, those "protected" regions vote to join Poland.
While I agree that Poland's leaders are among the more rabid yapping dogs of the West - it is still far from clear to me that either the Polish people or the Polish military share this enthusiasm. It isn't like Poles don't know full well the full can of whup-ass that's been opened up by Russia in Ukraine.
Re: Wagner and northern front out of Belarus
I agree, this is low probability of the extreme. I don't see Belarus allowing offensive actions by anyone out of their territory unless they really want to join in the SMO. And why would they want to join in the SMO?
Re: miltary situation on the ground
Mercouris has noted that Ukraine has lost in the order of 200 Bradleys so far in roughly 6 weeks of offensive. I don't know where he gets this from, but if true - this makes the vaunted 2000 Bradley reserve of the US military look pretty small in comparison. I don't see easily accessible Bradley annual production information - but this 2019 link talks about a contract to make 168. Even if this is just for production in 1 year - which I significantly doubt - it would be far below the loss rate Mercouris notes: https://www.baesystems.com/en-uk/article/u-s--army-extends-contract-for-bradley-fighting-vehicle-upgrades
And this talks about the Bradley replacement: full production to start in 2030 LOL
Again, not the least bit clear to me that Russia needs to execute large arrow offensives. In the short term - so long as Ukraine is being forced to attack, the meat grinder grinds on.
Secondly, even Western sources are of the belief that support given to Ukraine will continue to reduce. It is particularly notable that Europe has literally hit the wall with tank and armored vehicle contributions; it is now just Uncle Sam giving goodies, and Sam's goodie bag is visibly smaller each month. F16s are pretty much all that is left - and there are indications that both the saner/business minded MIC and US military are starting to understand that the full blown reputational dumpster fire of US military power will only blaze hotter if pictures of shot-down F16s join the burning Leapord, burning Bradley, burning M777 and burning HIMARS slide shows. The UK has clearly recognized this danger since it seems very clear that the double handful of Challengers are still guarding depots somewhere in the rear - I never thought the term REMF would apply to tanks. UK armor LOL.
Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin:
"Mr President, colleagues.
According to information provided to the service by several sources, officials in Warsaw are gradually coming to an understanding that no kind of Western assistance to Kiev can support Ukraine in reaching the goals of this assistance. Moreover, they are beginning to understand that Ukraine will be defeated in only the matter of time.
In this regard, the Polish authorities are getting more intent on taking the western parts of Ukraine under control by deploying their troops there. There are plans to present this measure as the fulfillment of allied obligations within the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian security initiative, the so-called Lublin Triangle.
We see that plans also call for significantly increasing the number of personnel of the combined Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, which operates under the auspices of this so-called Lublin Triangle.
We believe that it is necessary to keep a close eye on these dangerous plans of the Polish authorities."
For info: Journo 'Merchet' is a russophobe, neocon, cia asset zero credibility. Like BH Levy or even worse.
The news outlet is 24/7 pro ukrops his name is LCI(la chaine info), people call LCI now LCU La chaine(network) Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/russophobieorg/status/1630292550996172800/photo/1
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=lcu+la+chaine+ukraine&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiiztn2u6GAAxWC7LsIHUQ5C2MQ0pQJegQIQRAB&biw=1227&bih=567&dpr=1.3
Whatever the fuck Strelkov's story was? Just like Gonzalo Lira. You push your luck far enough, and it runs out. I have zero sympathy. The Chinese have a saying. The high nail gets the hammer. If you are going to fuck with them? You have to go grey man. Lone wolf. Use a rifle, not your mouth.
What the heck is going on with these guys like Priggo, Gubarev and Strelkov? It's like they're asking to be sent off to a Siberian work prison or something. I mean, seriously what is it that they think they're going to accomplish by goading Putin's administration? So they want the "slow" pace picked up - Okay, but that by nature involves more risks of a certain type. Grown men being this impatient reminds me of the American Neocons during the Bush/Cheney years. Listening to people like that never ends well and I'm sure Putin knows this.
Not a lot of good news for Ukraine. Would assume that Poland wouldn't be mad enough to want to take on a direct war with Russia, however they could well believe, perhaps rightly, that they could take Western Ukraine without a direct confrontation. Things may not be likely to get any prettier soon but more convoluted is certainly on the cards.
Poland coming in to "save" Western Ukraine could well be spun as a NATO victory. Ukraine due to its incompetence and corruption wasted the generous NATO assistance and completely ignored the superior military strategy suggested, Poland comes in to bravely stop the Russian hordes from their planned invasion of Europe. Russia balks with fear at the sight of an actual NATO force etc.
I am really curious what this point from Putin refers to...... I have no idea RE Czechoslovakia! --- “Poland seized part of Lithuania, seized its historical lands from Russia and participated in the division of Czechoslovakia, taking advantage of the civil war.” Any suggestion, please?
P.S. Always love a good Jim Cramer reference. LOL. Whatever that dumbfuck says - do the opposite and enjoy the best night's sleep you've had in years.
Regarding the Ukrainian cemetery crisis, perhaps their allies in Berlin can provide some suggestions for disposing of large numbers of bodies.
Poor Igor, he was given more than enough time to repent. Thus, rather than wasting resources to feeding people like him, it would be beneficial to get him an AK, a vest strapped with remote-detonated-TNT and march him to the front. His death will cleanse his name.
So you're saying that because Strelkov was stridently critical of Putin, this make it somehow less than outrageous that he's being imprisoned for stating his opinion?
If it's illegal to criticize Putin, how does this effect the public opinion polls claiming that Putin has a high approval rating? Does the average Russian feel safe to state a true opinion? Or does every nail that sticks up, get hammered down in one way or another?
This arrest only plays into the hands of the Neocons who claim that Russia is a totalitarian state led by a despot.
Stelkov is a bump in the road—significantly insignificant. What matters is how Russia does over the next 6 months—little else. And what matters, too, is Washington's assessment of the war. Will they apply a tourniquet or encourage bleed-out? If it's bleed out, proxies will bleed--particularly those next in line—the Poles and the Lithuanians. And would expect truly horrific terrorist attacks on Mother Russia. The main threat of a push toward recklessness is not nutty Strelkov and his group, it is the prospect of major terror attacks in Russia. The outrage will be well nigh impossible to bottle up. Terror (and economics) has always been The Empire's trump card in international affairs. The slaughter of innocents plays to The Hegemon's interest--provoking a reckless response. Kremlin, forewarned is forearmed. This path would be standard operating procedure if not for...yes...China. Shoot your wad with Russia, oops, now how do we screw with China? Perhaps The Empire will see that cut and run—“oh well, we tried”—is advantageous. Then the tap goes dry for Ukraine and the terror option is turned off. We'll see.
"The more likely thing will be the continual expansion of Russian operations in the Svatove-Kremennaya region and gradually branching out from there, but we’ll see if we get wind of any new indications to point to something greater."
This does indeed seem the more likely scenario at this point. Recall that one of the reasons Russia pulled back from these areas last year is that they did not have the manpower in place to defend them properly. It would seem they appear to be preparing to expand the frontline now well into Kharkov, so they are amassing the necessary forces to support that effort and defend it later. I have heard estimates from 100K to 160K troops massed. I am not a military expert, but I don't believe this is enough to take a city like Kharkov, unless of course the Ukrainian defenses collapse on the way, so perhaps they will be best utilised in driving towards Lyman and Izyum, taking the towns and preparing for the final offensive towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. I believe the first objective will always be to liberate the remaining Donbass regions along with Kherson and Zaporizhia. But of course, this is war - and plans change and methods adapt.
Contrary to early Beltway hopes and expectations,
Russia neither collapsed internally nor capitulated to the collective West’s demands for regime change in Moscow.
Washington underestimated Russia’s societal cohesion, its latent military potential, and its relative immunity to Western economic sanctions.
As a result, Washington’s proxy war against Russia is failing.
All my life I felt sorry for the Poles because of WW2 and the Iron Curtain. Apparently, they're dicks.
(👏🏼 Simplicius) ...
Isn’t it laughable when we roll back the clock to 2008:
“WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland’s then leader that they divide Ukraine between themselves as far back as 2008, Poland’s parliamentary speaker, Radoslaw Sikorski, said in an interview published by the U.S. Politico website.”
“He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine. … This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow.”
“We made it very, very clear to them — we wanted nothing to do with this,” Sikorski said.
Sikorski’s account is not the first suggestion that Russia was seeking Poland’s support in partitioning Ukraine.
🤔.. now it appears, times may be changing .. 😉
Excellent writeup - keep up the great work!
Re: Strelkov
Again, while he did great work fighting 8 years ago - this has never meant he has the least bit of credibility in strategy, tactics, politics or anything else above unit level leadership. Nor has he demonstrated any since then.
Re: Poland
I would note that Polish troops in West Ukraine aren't necessarily just to replace/augment Ukraine's military. Let's not forget that Polish troops "defending" West Ukraine could effectively also mean Poland annexing it - de facto if not de jure - along the lines of: we'll (Poles) hold down the fort here in Lvov and Ivano-Frenkel while you poor Ukrainian saps continue to die on the front lines. And then when Ukraine collapses, those "protected" regions vote to join Poland.
While I agree that Poland's leaders are among the more rabid yapping dogs of the West - it is still far from clear to me that either the Polish people or the Polish military share this enthusiasm. It isn't like Poles don't know full well the full can of whup-ass that's been opened up by Russia in Ukraine.
Re: Wagner and northern front out of Belarus
I agree, this is low probability of the extreme. I don't see Belarus allowing offensive actions by anyone out of their territory unless they really want to join in the SMO. And why would they want to join in the SMO?
Re: miltary situation on the ground
Mercouris has noted that Ukraine has lost in the order of 200 Bradleys so far in roughly 6 weeks of offensive. I don't know where he gets this from, but if true - this makes the vaunted 2000 Bradley reserve of the US military look pretty small in comparison. I don't see easily accessible Bradley annual production information - but this 2019 link talks about a contract to make 168. Even if this is just for production in 1 year - which I significantly doubt - it would be far below the loss rate Mercouris notes: https://www.baesystems.com/en-uk/article/u-s--army-extends-contract-for-bradley-fighting-vehicle-upgrades
And this talks about the Bradley replacement: full production to start in 2030 LOL
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/10/11/us-army-gets-its-first-look-at-bradley-replacement-options/
Lastly: Russian offensives
Again, not the least bit clear to me that Russia needs to execute large arrow offensives. In the short term - so long as Ukraine is being forced to attack, the meat grinder grinds on.
Secondly, even Western sources are of the belief that support given to Ukraine will continue to reduce. It is particularly notable that Europe has literally hit the wall with tank and armored vehicle contributions; it is now just Uncle Sam giving goodies, and Sam's goodie bag is visibly smaller each month. F16s are pretty much all that is left - and there are indications that both the saner/business minded MIC and US military are starting to understand that the full blown reputational dumpster fire of US military power will only blaze hotter if pictures of shot-down F16s join the burning Leapord, burning Bradley, burning M777 and burning HIMARS slide shows. The UK has clearly recognized this danger since it seems very clear that the double handful of Challengers are still guarding depots somewhere in the rear - I never thought the term REMF would apply to tanks. UK armor LOL.