Today, Igor Girkin aka Strelkov was arrested under Section 2 of Article 280 for ‘public incitement of extremism’, fulfilling his long-sought-after martyrdom.
Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin:
"Mr President, colleagues.
According to information provided to the service by several sources, officials in Warsaw are gradually coming to an understanding that no kind of Western assistance to Kiev can support Ukraine in reaching the goals of this assistance. Moreover, they are beginning to understand that Ukraine will be defeated in only the matter of time.
In this regard, the Polish authorities are getting more intent on taking the western parts of Ukraine under control by deploying their troops there. There are plans to present this measure as the fulfillment of allied obligations within the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian security initiative, the so-called Lublin Triangle.
We see that plans also call for significantly increasing the number of personnel of the combined Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, which operates under the auspices of this so-called Lublin Triangle.
We believe that it is necessary to keep a close eye on these dangerous plans of the Polish authorities."
"Yes. We should elaborate on what Mr Naryshkin has just said. This information has already appeared in the European media, in particular, the French.
I believe it would be suitable in this context to also remind everyone about several history lessons from the 20th century.
It is clear today that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with the results of the counteroffensive that the current Ukrainian authorities announced in previous months. There are no results, at least for now. The colossal resources that were pumped into the Kiev regime, the supply of Western weapons, such as tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles and missiles, and the deployment of thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers, who were most actively used in attempts to break through the front of our army, are not helping.
Meanwhile, the commanders of the special military operation are acting professionally. Our soldiers, officers and units are fulfilling their duty to the Motherland courageously, steadfastly and heroically. At the same time, the whole world sees that the vaunted Western, supposedly invulnerable, military equipment is on fire, and is often even inferior to some of the Soviet-made weapons in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics.
Yes, of course, more Western weapons can be supplied and thrown into battle. This, of course, causes us some damage and prolongs the conflict. But, firstly, NATO arsenals and stockpiles of old Soviet weapons in some countries are already largely depleted. And secondly, the West does not have the production capacities to quickly replenish the consumption of reserves of equipment and ammunition. Additional, large resources and time are needed.
The main thing is that formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered huge losses as a result of self-destructive attacks: tens of thousands of people.
And, despite the constant raids and the incessant waves of total mobilisation in Ukrainian cities and villages, it is increasingly difficult for the current regime to send new soldiers to the front. The country’s mobilisation resource is being depleted.
People in Ukraine are asking a legitimate question more often: for what, for the sake of whose selfish interests, are their relatives and friends dying. Gradually, slowly, but clarity comes.
We can see the public opinion changing in Europe, too. Both the Europeans and European elites see that support for Ukraine is, in fact, a dead end, an empty, endless waste of money and effort, and in fact, serving someone else’s interests, which are far from European: the interests of the overseas global hegemon, which benefits from the weakening of Europe. The endless prolongation of the Ukrainian conflict is also beneficial to it.
Judging by the actual state of affairs, this is exactly what today’s US ruling elites are doing. Anyways, this is the logic they follow. It is largely questionable whether such a policy is in line with the American people’s true, vital interests; this is a rhetorical question, and it is up to them to decide.
However, massive efforts are being taken to stoke the fire of war – including by exploiting the ambitions of certain East European leaders, who have long turned their hatred for Russia and Russophobia into their key export commodity and a tool of their domestic policy. And now they want to capitalise on the Ukrainian tragedy.
In this regard, I cannot refrain from commenting on what has just been said and on media reports that have come out about plans to establish some sort of the so-called Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian unit. This is not about a group of mercenaries – there are plenty of them there and they are being destroyed – but about a well-organised, equipped regular military unit to be used for operations in Ukraine, including to allegedly ensure the security of today’s Western Ukraine – actually, to call things by their true name, for the subsequent occupation of these territories. The outlook is clear: in the event Polish forces enter, say, Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good.
And we will actually see nothing new. Just to remind you, following WWI, after the defeat of Germany and its allies, Polish units occupied Lvov and adjacent territories that had been part of Austria-Hungary.
With its actions incited by the West, Poland took advantage of the tragedy of the Civil War in Russia and annexed certain historical Russian provinces. In dire straits, our country had to sign the Treaty of Riga in 1921 and recognise the annexation of its territories.
Even earlier, back in 1920, Poland captured part of Lithuania – the Vilnius region, a territory surrounding the present-day Vilnius. So they claimed that they fought together with the Lithuanians against so-called Russian imperialism, but then immediately snatched a piece of land from their neighbour as soon as the opportunity presented itself.
As is well known, Poland also took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia following the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler in 1938, by fully occupying Cieszyn Silesia.
In the 1920-1930s, Poland’s Eastern Borderlands (Kresy) – a territory that comprises present-day Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and part of Lithuania – witnessed a tough policy of Polonisation and assimilation of local residents, with efforts to suppress local culture and Orthodoxy.
I would also like to remind you what Poland’s aggressive policy led to. It led to the national tragedy of 1939, when Poland’s Western allies threw it to the German wolf, the German miliary machine. Poland actually lost its independence and statehood, which were only restored thanks in a large measure to the Soviet Union. It was also thanks to the Soviet Union and thanks to Stalin’s position that Poland acquired substantial territory in the west, German territory. It is a fact that Poland’s western lands are a gift from Stalin.
Have our Warsaw friends forgotten this? We will remind them.
oday we see that the regime in Kiev is ready to go to any length to save its treacherous hide and to prolong its existence. They do not care for the people of Ukraine or Ukrainian sovereignty or national interests.
They are ready to sell anything, including people and land, just like their ideological forefathers led by Petlyura, who signed the so-called secret conventions with Poland in 1920 under which they ceded Galicia and Western Volhynia to Poland in return for military support. Traitors like them are ready now to open the gate to their foreign handlers and to sell Ukraine again.
As for the Polish leaders, they probably hope to form a coalition under the NATO umbrella in order to directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine and to bite off as much as possible, to 'regain,' as they see it, their historical territories, that is, modern-day Western Ukraine. It is also common knowledge that they dream about Belarusian land.
Regarding the policy of the Ukrainian regime, it is none of our business. If they want to relinquish or sell off something in order to pay their bosses, as traitors usually do, that’s their business. We will not interfere.
But Belarus is part of the Union State, and launching an aggression against Belarus would mean launching an aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond to that with all the resources available to us.
The Polish authorities, who are nurturing their revanchist ambitions, hide the truth from their people. The truth is that the Ukrainian cannon fodder is no longer enough for the West. That is why it is planning to use other expendables – Poles, Lithuanians and everyone else they do not care about.
I can tell you that this is an extremely dangerous game, and the authors of such plans should think about the consequences.
Mr Naryshkin, I hope that your service, just as the other special services, will closely monitor the developments.”
Great comments Mike. As I wrote in my recent article, the US
MIC needs wars to stay profitable. Ukraine is losing. The Russians likely not want or need Galicia. Let the Western Ukrainians go there and let the Poles try and deal with them. Belarus is anothe matter, of course. The US -- Biden at least-- would love to see the Poles fight the Russians. But since the Russians would win handily, the Poles will not be so ambitious.
I quoted your timeline on another substack before you posted this :)
I just finished rewatching the 'Wolyn' movie wherein normal Ukrainians, during WW2, were impossibly stuck between the Germans, Poles and Russians... with the Banderites being the most savage.
Maybe what I next say is not true, but my impression was he said all this off-the-cuff as we've seen Putin do before. Then I try (really hard) to imagine this sort of mental ability and agility from any (but esp. the Clown-in-Chief) of our dear Western leaders. Sad.
Whatever the fuck Strelkov's story was? Just like Gonzalo Lira. You push your luck far enough, and it runs out. I have zero sympathy. The Chinese have a saying. The high nail gets the hammer. If you are going to fuck with them? You have to go grey man. Lone wolf. Use a rifle, not your mouth.
Good point bringing up Lira. I mean on one side I respect his courage and willingness to speak truth to power. And he was telling the truth (Strelkov isn't). But sticking around in Ukraine after you've already been picked up and shaken down by the nazis wasn't very bright of him and now has anyone heard from him in a while? Point being, your Chinese saying applies whether or not what "the high nail" says is true or false.
Thr sbu had him on house arrest. If he violated it, his family may be implicated. Are you under naxi or romania house arrest or ever were persecuted by rhe state police?
My understanding was that he was put under *temporary* house arrest after which point he began videos again. If he still couldn't leave Ukraine (how much family does he have there? He's Chilean American - like a girlfriend or something?) then he should have STFU at that time. Instead he kept 'vlogging' and doing interviews where he was critical of the Ukrainian side. Not too bright.
And that's fair, but there remain a few questions. IIRC, he was only temporarily put under house arrest. At some point his computer and internet connection were returned/restored and he began making critical public statements about the Ukro regime again. It's possible that during the period after he was first detained or put under house arrest they monitored him and his wife/mother in law closely to the degree that escaping Ukraine would've been difficult and dangerous. But again, if so, why start doing what got you in trouble to begin with again, and especially knowing the brutality of the ukro-nazis inclusive of their all-out war on information (which he was putting out)? That's where I begin to question his intelligence or at least his ability to keep his ego in check.
And context is important too. It wasn't like anything he was saying was actionable to Russia or any Ukrainian dissenters that may still exist. It was simply situational reportage and commentary/opinion that was highly critical of the Zelensky regime and the proxy Ukrainian position from geopolitical standpoint. IOW, just saying "mean things" about them while knowing he was being watched carefully, that they have crushed and even killed dissenting journalists, and that the consequences to him and his family could be dire if he kept going. So I still question either his intelligence or ego and he might have had as good a chance of escaping the country with his family as he would have had in staying and continuing to publicy criticize the government without them taking further action against him up to and including disappearing him and/or killing him.
This makes sense, but maybe you could clarify. Once you are on the list you're there until you die. So were they merely waiting to kill him no matter what he did once he got his laptop, phone and camera back? If so he didn't seem to say as much in his video dispatches after he was picked up the first time. I mean if he knew he was going to die anyway, I can see why he might keep on criticizing the Ukros after the first "warning", but I didn't get that impression from him in his various interviews and videos afterwards.
What do you think has happened to him? Did they not simply kill him the first time because it would have been a PR (public relations) disaster for the Ukro-nazis? I know they are trying to control and manage all information coming from the country (see Chris Hedges article today on the film "20 Days in Mariupol" where he says that they intentionally avoid showing any Ukrainian crimes or atrocities for example).
I think the difference between the two is whom the Kremlin etc. feels is FUNDING Strelkov. Under no illusion that Lira was being funded by anyone but his patrons and audience.
What the heck is going on with these guys like Priggo, Gubarev and Strelkov? It's like they're asking to be sent off to a Siberian work prison or something. I mean, seriously what is it that they think they're going to accomplish by goading Putin's administration? So they want the "slow" pace picked up - Okay, but that by nature involves more risks of a certain type. Grown men being this impatient reminds me of the American Neocons during the Bush/Cheney years. Listening to people like that never ends well and I'm sure Putin knows this.
Prigozhin is not the same category as the other 2. He had literally a billion dollars of annual revenue getting taken away - given the general gangster nature of oligarchs plus a real possibility of him losing his shit to some degree - I personally had zero surprises over anything he did including his aborted coup.
The other 2 are clearly just pond scum making a living by pushing the extremes in the blogosphere. There's a reason why isolated groups trend towards ever greater radicalism.
The spies like Larry Johnson want to believe it is a story, but they're hammers looking at nails.
The reality is Prigozhin's actions in the coup hurt Russia materially: dead Russian pilots, reinvigorated neocons and Ukrainians, and gullible people on the internet in the rest of the world wasting time analyzing nothing.
If this is maskirovka - the architect should be shot.
Uh huh-- 🤣🤣 re-invigorated neocons-- seriously-- how's that false flag op going? how's that Ukrainian push (didnt even get past the 1st line) going? Oh how did Vilieus NATO meeting go? 🤣🤣
That's the point: without the renewed "evidence of Russia/Putin teetering" - Vilnius and the failed counteroffensive would have been much harder to overlook.
"Grown men being this impatient reminds me of the American Neocons during the Bush/Cheney years. "
What are the options for lapdogs raised in the lap of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN ... same applies to 99.99% of puppets all over the world ... worse in some places than others!
Alcoholics, drug addicts, sex addicts.... the whole range straight out of the belly of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN!
It isn't unusual for chancers to advocate a strategy that they will never have to account for, like De Valera and Lloyd George. It's a way of disowning the cost and preparing to appropriate the results.
Its called ego, greed, the dying need to be/feel essential/important. Its human hubris-- look to the west for SO many like this. Neil Young, Chomsky, Hedges re COVID, Stern re: anything. They alll have a deep need to be front and centre. Ego --plays have been written forever about its fall.
Everyone needs a feeling of importance in one way or another. Strelkov probably has never successfully processed his cowardice in battle and knows the disdain for him is strong. That sort of inner denial/struggle sometimes comes out in self-destructive ways.
To your point, and to c1ue (regarding Priggo having a huge financial stake) elsewhere in this comment subthread, that's understandable. But I'm trying to find analogous situations in other countries at war. Where 'important' public voices and actors (meaning Priggo who did important things) begin to openly and loudly criticize the prosecution of a war and seemingly attempt to destroy morale and/or turn public opinion against the sitting government when they know that the government (meaning Putin's administration in this case) are also under intense 'regime change' pressure from outside the country and have been for a while; to the point that the war they are fighting has, as one of its precise aims/goals, ousting Putin and ostensibly installing a new Yeltsin type figure that will allow the predatory Western finance-capital-energy-agriculture interests to balkanize the RF and swoop in to buy up all the pieces.
I guess the TL/DR question is one of context. These guys know what's at stake and if they don't they're absolute morons. This includes Priggo. Which brings to mind another angle and that is - as so-called insiders do they know something we don't know and that the Putin administration doesn't want us to know? I find that hard to believe, but again I'm struggling to find another recent historical example of *this many* people within a nation involved in an existential war so openly criticizing their own country's prosecution of that war at such a critical time in the war. So it's not only the psychology that fascinates me, or the seeming lack of precedent, but also the notion that something might be going on behind the scenes that is altogether different from the picture being painted for us by both the Western regime-change media/governments - AND - the "official" narrative coming from the Russian government. The fog of war is thick, I guess...
Not a lot of good news for Ukraine. Would assume that Poland wouldn't be mad enough to want to take on a direct war with Russia, however they could well believe, perhaps rightly, that they could take Western Ukraine without a direct confrontation. Things may not be likely to get any prettier soon but more convoluted is certainly on the cards.
Poland coming in to "save" Western Ukraine could well be spun as a NATO victory. Ukraine due to its incompetence and corruption wasted the generous NATO assistance and completely ignored the superior military strategy suggested, Poland comes in to bravely stop the Russian hordes from their planned invasion of Europe. Russia balks with fear at the sight of an actual NATO force etc.
The moment poles crossed the border should "coincide" with a massive missile strike along ukr border that sobers up their pretensions quickly. Poland will not be invited to NUTO's VE victory parade, same as in 1945, but for a different reason. There won't be any victory this time. Polish governments have always been like Ukraine, they learn nothing from past failures, including their current covert operation in Donbass.
The time to take out some strategic bridges in the west & north east is now. Same with infrastructure of power generating plants. SMO in this uncivil war is done; this is war & should be waged as such.
I am really curious what this point from Putin refers to...... I have no idea RE Czechoslovakia! --- “Poland seized part of Lithuania, seized its historical lands from Russia and participated in the division of Czechoslovakia, taking advantage of the civil war.” Any suggestion, please?
AHA! Apologies. My question was already answered above: “As is well known, Poland also took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia following the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler in 1938, by fully occupying Cieszyn Silesia.”
"With its actions incited by the West, Poland took advantage of the tragedy of the Civil War in Russia and annexed certain historical Russian provinces. In dire straits, our country had to sign the Treaty of Riga in 1921 and recognise the annexation of its territories."
Depends on how one defines "civil war". Both the Poles and Czechs were conducting major "ethnic cleansing" (i.e., dispossession, expulsion, and killing) activities against the original ethnic Germans within their countries well prior to the official start of the war in 1939. Contrary to Allied propaganda, Hitler didn't just wake up one morning and decide to invade Czechoslovakia in 1938 for no reason at all. Actual numbers of just how many of these Germans perished at the hands of the Poles and Czechs cannot be substantiated, but I have read of claims ranging from many tens of thousands to millions.
If you mean the bodies of the Wehrmacht, I would tend to agree that they are capable of helping a lot. If, however, you mean any other bodies, I'm afraid you are the victim of the 20th century's greatest Psyops that paved the way to the Western world as we know it today - crumbling before our eyes.
And then you have to account all the bodies strewn around which don’t get a grave (other in those so called mass graves which are in these wars an acute necessity) or much later on after the war.
Poor Igor, he was given more than enough time to repent. Thus, rather than wasting resources to feeding people like him, it would be beneficial to get him an AK, a vest strapped with remote-detonated-TNT and march him to the front. His death will cleanse his name.
So you're saying that because Strelkov was stridently critical of Putin, this make it somehow less than outrageous that he's being imprisoned for stating his opinion?
If it's illegal to criticize Putin, how does this effect the public opinion polls claiming that Putin has a high approval rating? Does the average Russian feel safe to state a true opinion? Or does every nail that sticks up, get hammered down in one way or another?
This arrest only plays into the hands of the Neocons who claim that Russia is a totalitarian state led by a despot.
Historically, freedom of opinion during war has always been sacrificed. And for practical reasons - opinions matter and once the decision has been made to go to war, almost any government will restrict those rights to some degree, especially where the morale of the population and the military is affected. It is unfortunate, but necessary, I'm afraid. I am more concerned about freedom of opinion during peace - the kind you see disappearing from virtually every Western nation today.
In the minds of their public, no. But that is irrelevant. The fact is that free speech is already being seriously challenged in all NATO countries and more in the Western alliance. Think social media.
The arguments used to suppress free speech are always framed in warlike terms. We're fighting the virus. We're fighting global warming, and racism, and gender wars.
Are we here to make excuses for the censors, or to stand up for everyone's right to speak freely without fear of imprisonment?
You're allowed to criticize Putin in Russia, but that's not all Strelkov did. He repeatedly called for Putin's dismissal and underhandedly calling for him to be deposed/overthrown. That's crossing the line into inciting insurrection.
Furthermore, there's a clear Russian law that states you're now allowed to spread false/fraudulent propaganda about the SMO/Russian troops that's harmful to their safety/wellbeing by virtue of ...being false, i.e. lies.
Strelkov spread numerous lies about the SMO and Russian troops, thus breaking the law. He did so by often falling for fake Ukrainian propaganda himself, an example of which I gave in the article, which makes it even worse because it means he's literally amplifying enemy intelligence service psyops which in some ways indirectly makes him an accomplice.
I have never heard of Strelkov before this article, possibly because Russian source news (?) is mainly blocked in the free democracy where I live. However you hint that he is effectively working for Ukraine, probably unwittingly. Follow the money.
I find that Strelkov has appeared to be more quoted and discussed in Western press than in Russian media. He is always used as a prime example of Russians who want regime change and pointing out the 'corruption' of the Russian government and military.
"Russian law that states you're now allowed to spread false/fraudulent propaganda about the SMO/Russian troops that's harmful to their safety/wellbeing by virtue of ...being false, i.e. lies." ??????
Obviously, but definitely THE wrong word to make a typo in that comment. Not nit picking, just questioning180 degree change of meaning. Spelcheque is a pain in the arse at the best of times.
By "underhandedly", you mean that he didn't specifically plan for any insurrection.
I don't know what's true and what's false about the "SMO". This is a law that places the Russian government in charge of determining what's true and what isn't. And furthermore, there's a huge difference between "false statements" and "lies". If Strelkov repeated Ukrainian news sources in good faith, believing that they were accurate, then that is not lying.
By your standards, your own blog should absolutely be illegal in the West, and you too should be rotting in jail. Which would be tragic, and outrageous: because ultimately, this war is not Russia vs. NATO. It's a war of extermination: the oligarchs against all.
This is the line of shit that this fake non-Russian Rolo Slavskiy spews on his crap blog - that this is an oligarchs war. No one believes that accept for a small number of cretins who think Strelkov was some kind of significant historical figure, & not an old burned out traitor. Russian soldiers, commanders, & the Russian populace know this is an actual war for Russia's survival. Russian soldiers know what they are fighting for.
I think Rolo, Strelkov and Simplicius would agree that this is an actual war for Russia's survival. It's also an actual war for Ukraine's survival, right? Every dead body is an actual dead body.
My point is, the oligarchs are not fighting for their survival, they're thriving on the chaos. Rolo's point is that the Russian oligarchs are largely loyal to the West, more than they are to Russian peasants.
'Rolo Slavskiy' is obviously a pen name, but Rolo claims he has Russian ancestry.
Whatever brings them the most wealth, power and safety.
Claiming that Russian oligarchs are "loyal" to the West is as ridiculous as claiming that they are "loyal" to Russia.
A few sold their Russian assets and left at the beginning.
A few got fully sanctioned and are now completely dependent on the Russian state to guarantee their wealth and safety.
Most are under some kind of sanctions but are hedging their bets by having their wealth both in Russia and in some neutral country like the UAE (Dubai, etc.).
"By your standards, your own blog should absolutely be illegal in the West, and you too should be rotting in jail. "
FFS. Simplicius is thorough in his research, doesn't rely on single sources (or at least says so if his information is uncomfirmed), is obviously biased but fair and is not calling for anyone to be deposed or worse. Strelkov is an entirely different animal, shouting at the top of his lungs his hatred for Putin and doing it off of not one, but several Uke-sponsored fake sites.
Simplicius wants NATO to lose, and the existing governments are doing a pretty good job of screwing up the war effort in every possible way. It's so bad that the Russians might win in spite of themselves.
So why would he agitate for change? His stuff would be illegal because it is obviously going to undermine the morale of any Western soldier who reads it. It doesn't even matter if it's entirely factual. Censors hate the truth most of all.
LOL!! How does criticizing Biden work for you? Ask Matt Taibbi-- IRS next day. 🤔 Be careful of being too "on the side of the angels"-- not too much about the US or anyone else (same here in Canada) about being" lily white" (so to speak)
Uh no-- love your straw man. Its apples and oranges-- no comparison between the two. Taibbi has a clear income, Strelkov doesnt have one 🤔 as Simplicius points out-- how does he fund his spacious flat? Inquiring minds want to know. I am sure the Russian authorities know exactly where he gets his money from, who he meets. The ego and spite of the 5th/6th columnists in any country is eye-rolling. To compare Taibbi to this is laughable. And frankly that the US sets IRS guys on him tells you everything.
We do have a little bit of evidence as to Strelkov's funding. That is, the Wagner doctor's claim that Strelkov collects donations to help the soldiers, and provides no accountability for the proceeds. What sort of people are giving donations to Strelkov to help soldiers at the front? That wouldn't be the Ukraine or US, it would be the Russian "patriots".
How is that any different from Taibbi, who collects donations and subscription fees from his supporters in the West? Does Taibbi provide an accounting, how much money is coming in and where it goes? And how is there anything criminal or morally wrong about any of this?
For that matter, isn't Taibbi's political position in the West, almost exactly analogous to Russian "6th columnist" authors? That is, he advocates for reform in the government, and for the truth wherever it leads; which in this case, as Taibbi and Strelkov would presumably agree, points to Western culpability in sabotaging the Minsk agreements and carrying out sustained terrorist attacks against the Donbass.
And furthermore, what about the many US authors who have worked for RT or Strategic Culture, and presumably gotten paid for it? Should they all be thrown in prison?
The announcement says he was charged for "public calls to extremism", whatever that means. Simplicius goes on to quote an article from Strelkov lamenting that "the country won't survive another 6 years" if Putin stays in power. Strelkov regrets that Putin doesn't see this, do the honorable thing, and resign.
Simplicius speculates that the arrest may be related to a complaint submitted to the prosecutor's office by a Wagner doctor, who alleged that Strelkov was accepting donations without accountability. This doctor also said he thought insulting Putin was a crime. Yes, Strelkov certainly did insult Putin.
But where exactly is the incitement to insurrection? If Strelkov called for an armed uprising to get rid of Putin and the entire government, where are the quotes?
Stelkov is a bump in the road—significantly insignificant. What matters is how Russia does over the next 6 months—little else. And what matters, too, is Washington's assessment of the war. Will they apply a tourniquet or encourage bleed-out? If it's bleed out, proxies will bleed--particularly those next in line—the Poles and the Lithuanians. And would expect truly horrific terrorist attacks on Mother Russia. The main threat of a push toward recklessness is not nutty Strelkov and his group, it is the prospect of major terror attacks in Russia. The outrage will be well nigh impossible to bottle up. Terror (and economics) has always been The Empire's trump card in international affairs. The slaughter of innocents plays to The Hegemon's interest--provoking a reckless response. Kremlin, forewarned is forearmed. This path would be standard operating procedure if not for...yes...China. Shoot your wad with Russia, oops, now how do we screw with China? Perhaps The Empire will see that cut and run—“oh well, we tried”—is advantageous. Then the tap goes dry for Ukraine and the terror option is turned off. We'll see.
Exactly, I agree. At the end of the day the propagandists make a much bigger deal about Strelkov and his arrest than there really is. Ultimately he's a rather irrelevant figure and it will have no real effect on anything. As you said, what's important is what's happening on the line and in the rear, insofar as Russia's wrangling of the logistical/supply issues and streamlining it in order to fashion a smoothly running war machine that can up the pressure and take full offensive initiative in the future, to take advantage of the AFU's combat exhaustion.
"The more likely thing will be the continual expansion of Russian operations in the Svatove-Kremennaya region and gradually branching out from there, but we’ll see if we get wind of any new indications to point to something greater."
This does indeed seem the more likely scenario at this point. Recall that one of the reasons Russia pulled back from these areas last year is that they did not have the manpower in place to defend them properly. It would seem they appear to be preparing to expand the frontline now well into Kharkov, so they are amassing the necessary forces to support that effort and defend it later. I have heard estimates from 100K to 160K troops massed. I am not a military expert, but I don't believe this is enough to take a city like Kharkov, unless of course the Ukrainian defenses collapse on the way, so perhaps they will be best utilised in driving towards Lyman and Izyum, taking the towns and preparing for the final offensive towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. I believe the first objective will always be to liberate the remaining Donbass regions along with Kherson and Zaporizhia. But of course, this is war - and plans change and methods adapt.
I recommend looking up the history of the Teutonic Knights, the Polish Lithuanian kingdom and the generalized feudal nonsense that historical Lithuania and Poland exerted over the Slavic peasants. There's a reason why they were taken down by the USSR at the beginning of WW2, and furthermore a reason why Poland was part of Tsarist Russia even before Napoleon went down in 1810.
Note I am not saying the Russians are blameless.
What I am saying is that there are literally hundreds of years of animosity between Lithuania/Poland and Russia - with the 2 former being the bitches of the latter for the last several hundred years because there are a hell of a lot more Russians, and these Russians are now industrialized as opposed to the hordes of wooden stick armed peasants in the Teutonic Knight/Polish-Lithuanian empire era.
It's a joke, and a pretty good one, given Poland's chequered history
Your idea that gvmts may be more or less bad, but that 'the people' are universally 'fine' (which I'll take as an equivalent for good) is a fallacy, and poor one at that, and, if it comes to it, a peculiar westie fallacy..
...reaching back to homey rough spoken settler sentiments, best summed up by homey etc ruling class types such as Lincoln
I've actually been to Poland and know Polish people - so my views are not based on theory but fact. Most people everywhere are perfectly content to live and let be so long as they aren't faced with direct personal economic shortfalls or overt political persecution.
I don't really understand why the possibility of Polish leaders acting against the interests of their own people is so hard to understand - given that the same is going on all over Europe and the West in general.
You do not restrict your 'the people are just fine' homily to the Polish, it's the whole of humankind for you is just fine: but perhaps, also, you have been everywhere as well as to Poland
That the ruling class does not act in the interests of the 'people', and not just not in the westies, is a well known fact,
People are 'perfectly content to live and let be' - they wish....
For they will not be, ruled as they are by a class which exploits and impoverishes them, and who are invariably fools, as well
Yet they put up with their lot and this class, not knowing any better, or fearing they would do worse
If Poland is such a "bitch" weak country full of proverbially dumb Polacks, why is it you come together as a pack of hyaenas every other post to dunk gratuitous spite and contempt on her?
"Viel Feind, viel Ehr" as the saying goes chez another, more respectable Polish neighbour, this one responsible for an order of magnitude less horrors on her than the Soviet Union.
Poland is a bitch to Russia because they think they can reprise the Polish Lithuanian empire when this is utterly ludicrous - only slightly more so than Baltic fantasies of same.
Nor am I terribly impressed with your assertions of Polish innocence:
Poles were responsible for plenty of atrocities against Ukrainians and Russians what not when the Polish Pancerny ruled the steppes; that the sovereignty of Poland was relegated to nonexistence for most of the recent several hundred years under the Tsars, then the USSR does not mean the historical ethnic animosity has gone away on either side.
Poland had a choice to be a hostile but neutral nation with Russia; they've clearly chosen a different path and will have to accept whatever consequences result.
Wilsonian madness this is, trying to weight atrocities from each side, in order to justify one side's or the other's moral high ground.
Going West to East, say from Ireland to Japan, each border you pass there will be historical massacres still vividly remembered and ethnic rivalries seething under the surface: Irish vs English, Scots vs English, Icelanders vs Norwegians, French vs anyone bordering them or across the Channel ... Polacks vs Russians ... all the way to Koreans vs Japanese.
The only place this natural pattern of international relations does not happen is in North America, with its artificial "nations" composed of people imported from elsewhere and melted together during the last one or two centuries. This imported people, being deracinated and maladjusted, can obviously only fantasize on what it is like to have a true nationality, with its rivalries, its millennial history, in the way you did with your comment, for instance.
Do you really think that if Russia and China win a hypothetical world war and the USA is defeated, they are going to let this childish Wilsonian mentality stand? That you will happily be able to keep on spouting crap about stuff you have no clue about, and no one will pretend to notice like the world does now?
I do agree - there are an infinity of grievances in Europe from a historical standpoint.
As for the US: there are less but they do actually still exist. The Civil War, for example, was a very traumatic bloodletting but it is literally the only one. Europe, in contrast, had Civil War like occurrences every couple of decades for literally centuries.
But I think the unity of the US is enormously over-rated. It is not because of "deracination" and "maladjustment" in my view, but rather because most Americans are simply oblivious to anything that doesn't directly affect them.
Why should they be, when world and government events have so rarely made a tangible difference for the vast majority?
Furthermore, my view is that this purported unity is more a function of the idea of the "American Dream" - an explicit bargain where everyone and their children are going to get a better life if they follow the rules and work hard. Not so much different than the bargain the present China government has with its people, for example.
But the difference between China and the US now is that the US bargain is broken. Wages for the majority of the population - i.e. those not in the top 1% to3% - have been flat to down for decades. Financial and social mobility have plummeted, ever more tiny minority affirmative action notwithstanding.
Americans today, I suspect, are becoming far more French/European in understanding that government, social institutions, corporations, and every other organization imaginable are not their friends per se - and that progress only occurs by fighting for space at the trough with every one of those institutions. Mercouris has noted something similar in the UK only it is faith in the monarchy/government representing overall popular interests.
As for "Wilsonian" - I care very little for such labels. WW1 was very little different than the Spanish American war or the subsequent suppression of the Phillippines rebellion or the Manifest Destiny/Indian subjugation era - they are all examples of overt economic interest driving national policy, dressed up in whatever will sell to the public. R2P and "human rights" are simply the latest incarnation, and will depart the scene just as summarily as those past previous incarnations did.
The difference this time around is that the US does not have a frontier to grow into or a massive rebuilding effort to sell into as well as drive international changes. China overtaking the US as the leading (but not hegemonic) power on Earth is as inevitable as the US overtaking the UK in the WW1 to WW2 period - a transition massively accelerated by UK idiocy in attempting to forestall the outcome by waging wars much as this US transition seems doomed to repeat the UK's mistakes of the past.
I am not quite sure why you called me a bitch (or „suka”). Perhaps this is because I love Dostoyevsky and Tchechov while I am not particularly fond of the democracy of the tsars or the bolsheviks? I agree it might be difficult for you to understand Western democracy, its pros and cons, its successes and fails. Perhaps because there has never been any democracy in Russia ever? And you seem to again believe
in yet another dictator - Putin - rather than building a space within Russia for yourself? Btw, I have never called any Russian the way you called me. And I never will.
If Poles got together with Amercians, French, Germans, Italians, English and Russians late in the evening we would all probably argue if we prefer to drink Italian or French wine. But all of us would definitely agree our governments suck and our Western democracy struggles. Probably you would be the only person at the table being proud of your government and the politics of your country explaining to all of us that you have the solution; Putin. I would laugh, I woulld laugh at you as a bitch, because it has been the same solution as you always have had; over the centries, whoever was rulling your country, whatever foreign or demestic dictator occupied Russia, you have always followed him and trusterd him at 100% calling everyone around a bitch, espacially your nearest neighbours. It
Is more difficult for you to call an Amercain a bitch, obviously it has always bern much easier for you
to call Ukrainians or Poles with this word. We know It. Trust me that every stupid Pollack knows Putin taking about our borders with Germany and Ukrainę and Belafus serves ONLY one purposes:to encourge radicals and more war in Europe. Every suka in my country kmows your dictator is just looking for sth - to use all powers of the Russia to continue the war. Everyone in Europe and US see the propaganda around. But in Russia, people seem to forget about propaganda of ussr or tsar?
I would be more than happy we all have a drink rather than war but before we do Let’s please forget about yet anothet prophet in Russia as Putin is No diffwrent to anything that we have all seen here and there before.
With the qualifier Wilsonian I meant the policies of self-determination of local people that were applied in the treaty of Versailles that decided territorial outcomes after WW1.
The concept basically translates in a very naive interpretation of international politics, whereby polities are like little kids that are expected not to bicker among themselves and to behave well in class.
So thanks to Wilson the grown-up child, who all European statists viewed as some kind of novelty, Frankensteins like Jugoslavia, a powder keg of rival ethnicities no less explosive than the Hausburg Monarchy it substituted, and Czechoslovakia, a country militarily indefensible, came into being.
This also among other perplexing decisions, like adjudicating Transylvania to Romania, after it had been part of the crown of Hungary for how long, 500 years maybe... yes Romanians were the majority over there, but this is not the way to handle things.
Only an American... that is, someone outside of the normal flow of human history, incapable to perceive nuances like the need to preserve legitimacy .. could take such radical decisions, that led to a major war WW2 20 years later, and isolated regional conflicts ever since.
No decision so radical as to redraw the map of Europe had been taken before, when decisions were made by those who had skin in the game: the concert of Britain and the main continental powers.
Now Americans when interacting with Old World people, often come across as "Wilsonian" even in the small facets of every day life... your gratuitous spiteful comment against Poland comes across as Wilsonian, for instance: a sweeping, loaded remark made by someone who has nothing to do with the topic and can never hope to gain an inner understanding of it
Wow, gave the good ol' USA a pass on massacres and atrocities? Think again grasshopper. Start with the indigenous people, move to all the wars of expansion, how about slavery and the Civil War. Then there's all the demonic ideological wars, does Laos ring a bell, 2 million civilians bombed to their deaths (in secret) because USA didn't like their gov't, on and on and on ...
Documented estimates put the number of dead worldwide since WW2 at the hands of America at between 20-30 million! And their still at it obviously.
Isn’t it laughable when we roll back the clock to 2008:
“WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland’s then leader that they divide Ukraine between themselves as far back as 2008, Poland’s parliamentary speaker, Radoslaw Sikorski, said in an interview published by the U.S. Politico website.”
“He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine. … This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow.”
“We made it very, very clear to them — we wanted nothing to do with this,” Sikorski said.
Sikorski’s account is not the first suggestion that Russia was seeking Poland’s support in partitioning Ukraine.
Then you miss my point. If he lied then current events show them to be hypocrites ... if he didn’t lie then they changed their mines when it suits them ..
Again, while he did great work fighting 8 years ago - this has never meant he has the least bit of credibility in strategy, tactics, politics or anything else above unit level leadership. Nor has he demonstrated any since then.
Re: Poland
I would note that Polish troops in West Ukraine aren't necessarily just to replace/augment Ukraine's military. Let's not forget that Polish troops "defending" West Ukraine could effectively also mean Poland annexing it - de facto if not de jure - along the lines of: we'll (Poles) hold down the fort here in Lvov and Ivano-Frenkel while you poor Ukrainian saps continue to die on the front lines. And then when Ukraine collapses, those "protected" regions vote to join Poland.
While I agree that Poland's leaders are among the more rabid yapping dogs of the West - it is still far from clear to me that either the Polish people or the Polish military share this enthusiasm. It isn't like Poles don't know full well the full can of whup-ass that's been opened up by Russia in Ukraine.
Re: Wagner and northern front out of Belarus
I agree, this is low probability of the extreme. I don't see Belarus allowing offensive actions by anyone out of their territory unless they really want to join in the SMO. And why would they want to join in the SMO?
Re: miltary situation on the ground
Mercouris has noted that Ukraine has lost in the order of 200 Bradleys so far in roughly 6 weeks of offensive. I don't know where he gets this from, but if true - this makes the vaunted 2000 Bradley reserve of the US military look pretty small in comparison. I don't see easily accessible Bradley annual production information - but this 2019 link talks about a contract to make 168. Even if this is just for production in 1 year - which I significantly doubt - it would be far below the loss rate Mercouris notes: https://www.baesystems.com/en-uk/article/u-s--army-extends-contract-for-bradley-fighting-vehicle-upgrades
And this talks about the Bradley replacement: full production to start in 2030 LOL
Again, not the least bit clear to me that Russia needs to execute large arrow offensives. In the short term - so long as Ukraine is being forced to attack, the meat grinder grinds on.
Secondly, even Western sources are of the belief that support given to Ukraine will continue to reduce. It is particularly notable that Europe has literally hit the wall with tank and armored vehicle contributions; it is now just Uncle Sam giving goodies, and Sam's goodie bag is visibly smaller each month. F16s are pretty much all that is left - and there are indications that both the saner/business minded MIC and US military are starting to understand that the full blown reputational dumpster fire of US military power will only blaze hotter if pictures of shot-down F16s join the burning Leapord, burning Bradley, burning M777 and burning HIMARS slide shows. The UK has clearly recognized this danger since it seems very clear that the double handful of Challengers are still guarding depots somewhere in the rear - I never thought the term REMF would apply to tanks. UK armor LOL.
"While I agree that Poland's leaders are among the more rabid yapping dogs of the West - it is still far from clear to me that either the Polish people or the Polish military share this enthusiasm. It isn't like Poles don't know full well the full can of whup-ass that's been opened up by Russia in Ukraine."
Nobody will ask the average frustrated Pole his opinion. The average frustrated Pole will be given his opinion.
The average frustrated Pole is the one that has to make real sacrifices should Poland's leaders lead them into direct conflict with Russia - whether it is standard of living or literal life sacrifices.
This is not the same as junk spending so typical of governments in peacetime, which are a "boiling a frog in water" setup.
And my response will be the same: the collective madness of Adolf's Germany is not replicated anywhere in the world since or before - Ukraine of today included.
Trying to draw lessons from that historical aberration is highly speculative.
What I recall is that Adolf's methods failed - and so why should I believe his main propagandist?
Every charlatan says they're right - but they lie for a living.
Why should a serial liar be believed for anything? Why exactly does this loser have any credibility because as I have clearly noted, and which you have yet to even dispute - that Adolf's Germany has never been replicated?
If the East German Stasi couldn't do it even with literally half of the exact real estate and the same people as Adolf - I see zero reason to believe that numbskull.
I'm afraid it will not be that simple. Bandera who carried out massacres of Poles in Volhynia and other ethnic cleansing against Poles (using his UPA army) and who was nazi collaborator during WWII is literally a national hero in Western Ukraine. They name streets after him, create his monuments, celebrate his birthday and so on. Poles and Western Ukrainians are not best friends to be honest.
from wiki:
The massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia (Polish: rzeź wołyńska, lit. 'Volhynian slaughter'; Ukrainian: Волинська трагедія, romanized: Volynska trahediia, lit. 'Volyn tragedy') were carried out in German-occupied Poland by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) with the support of parts of the local Ukrainian population against the Polish minority in Volhynia, Eastern Galicia, parts of Polesia and Lublin region from 1943 to 1945.[3] The peak of the massacres took place in July and August 1943. The massacres were exceptionally brutal and affected primarily women and children.[4][1] The UPA's actions resulted in about 50,000 to 100,000 deaths.[5][6][7] Other victims of the massacres included several hundred Jews, Russians, Czechs, Georgians, and Ukrainians who were part of Polish families or opposed the UPA and sabotaged the massacres by hiding Polish escapees.[1]
You're quite right, but the West doesn't care about polls that are "manipulated" if the outcome is one the West likes.
A Western Ukraine scoured clean of Ukrainian men, and significantly depopulated overall anyway due to refugees, seems like a fantastic place for a "free and fair election". /sarc
Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin:
"Mr President, colleagues.
According to information provided to the service by several sources, officials in Warsaw are gradually coming to an understanding that no kind of Western assistance to Kiev can support Ukraine in reaching the goals of this assistance. Moreover, they are beginning to understand that Ukraine will be defeated in only the matter of time.
In this regard, the Polish authorities are getting more intent on taking the western parts of Ukraine under control by deploying their troops there. There are plans to present this measure as the fulfillment of allied obligations within the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian security initiative, the so-called Lublin Triangle.
We see that plans also call for significantly increasing the number of personnel of the combined Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, which operates under the auspices of this so-called Lublin Triangle.
We believe that it is necessary to keep a close eye on these dangerous plans of the Polish authorities."
Putin responds:
"Yes. We should elaborate on what Mr Naryshkin has just said. This information has already appeared in the European media, in particular, the French.
I believe it would be suitable in this context to also remind everyone about several history lessons from the 20th century.
It is clear today that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with the results of the counteroffensive that the current Ukrainian authorities announced in previous months. There are no results, at least for now. The colossal resources that were pumped into the Kiev regime, the supply of Western weapons, such as tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles and missiles, and the deployment of thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers, who were most actively used in attempts to break through the front of our army, are not helping.
Meanwhile, the commanders of the special military operation are acting professionally. Our soldiers, officers and units are fulfilling their duty to the Motherland courageously, steadfastly and heroically. At the same time, the whole world sees that the vaunted Western, supposedly invulnerable, military equipment is on fire, and is often even inferior to some of the Soviet-made weapons in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics.
Yes, of course, more Western weapons can be supplied and thrown into battle. This, of course, causes us some damage and prolongs the conflict. But, firstly, NATO arsenals and stockpiles of old Soviet weapons in some countries are already largely depleted. And secondly, the West does not have the production capacities to quickly replenish the consumption of reserves of equipment and ammunition. Additional, large resources and time are needed.
The main thing is that formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered huge losses as a result of self-destructive attacks: tens of thousands of people.
And, despite the constant raids and the incessant waves of total mobilisation in Ukrainian cities and villages, it is increasingly difficult for the current regime to send new soldiers to the front. The country’s mobilisation resource is being depleted.
People in Ukraine are asking a legitimate question more often: for what, for the sake of whose selfish interests, are their relatives and friends dying. Gradually, slowly, but clarity comes.
We can see the public opinion changing in Europe, too. Both the Europeans and European elites see that support for Ukraine is, in fact, a dead end, an empty, endless waste of money and effort, and in fact, serving someone else’s interests, which are far from European: the interests of the overseas global hegemon, which benefits from the weakening of Europe. The endless prolongation of the Ukrainian conflict is also beneficial to it.
Judging by the actual state of affairs, this is exactly what today’s US ruling elites are doing. Anyways, this is the logic they follow. It is largely questionable whether such a policy is in line with the American people’s true, vital interests; this is a rhetorical question, and it is up to them to decide.
However, massive efforts are being taken to stoke the fire of war – including by exploiting the ambitions of certain East European leaders, who have long turned their hatred for Russia and Russophobia into their key export commodity and a tool of their domestic policy. And now they want to capitalise on the Ukrainian tragedy.
In this regard, I cannot refrain from commenting on what has just been said and on media reports that have come out about plans to establish some sort of the so-called Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian unit. This is not about a group of mercenaries – there are plenty of them there and they are being destroyed – but about a well-organised, equipped regular military unit to be used for operations in Ukraine, including to allegedly ensure the security of today’s Western Ukraine – actually, to call things by their true name, for the subsequent occupation of these territories. The outlook is clear: in the event Polish forces enter, say, Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good.
And we will actually see nothing new. Just to remind you, following WWI, after the defeat of Germany and its allies, Polish units occupied Lvov and adjacent territories that had been part of Austria-Hungary.
With its actions incited by the West, Poland took advantage of the tragedy of the Civil War in Russia and annexed certain historical Russian provinces. In dire straits, our country had to sign the Treaty of Riga in 1921 and recognise the annexation of its territories.
Even earlier, back in 1920, Poland captured part of Lithuania – the Vilnius region, a territory surrounding the present-day Vilnius. So they claimed that they fought together with the Lithuanians against so-called Russian imperialism, but then immediately snatched a piece of land from their neighbour as soon as the opportunity presented itself.
As is well known, Poland also took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia following the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler in 1938, by fully occupying Cieszyn Silesia.
In the 1920-1930s, Poland’s Eastern Borderlands (Kresy) – a territory that comprises present-day Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and part of Lithuania – witnessed a tough policy of Polonisation and assimilation of local residents, with efforts to suppress local culture and Orthodoxy.
I would also like to remind you what Poland’s aggressive policy led to. It led to the national tragedy of 1939, when Poland’s Western allies threw it to the German wolf, the German miliary machine. Poland actually lost its independence and statehood, which were only restored thanks in a large measure to the Soviet Union. It was also thanks to the Soviet Union and thanks to Stalin’s position that Poland acquired substantial territory in the west, German territory. It is a fact that Poland’s western lands are a gift from Stalin.
Have our Warsaw friends forgotten this? We will remind them.
oday we see that the regime in Kiev is ready to go to any length to save its treacherous hide and to prolong its existence. They do not care for the people of Ukraine or Ukrainian sovereignty or national interests.
They are ready to sell anything, including people and land, just like their ideological forefathers led by Petlyura, who signed the so-called secret conventions with Poland in 1920 under which they ceded Galicia and Western Volhynia to Poland in return for military support. Traitors like them are ready now to open the gate to their foreign handlers and to sell Ukraine again.
As for the Polish leaders, they probably hope to form a coalition under the NATO umbrella in order to directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine and to bite off as much as possible, to 'regain,' as they see it, their historical territories, that is, modern-day Western Ukraine. It is also common knowledge that they dream about Belarusian land.
Regarding the policy of the Ukrainian regime, it is none of our business. If they want to relinquish or sell off something in order to pay their bosses, as traitors usually do, that’s their business. We will not interfere.
But Belarus is part of the Union State, and launching an aggression against Belarus would mean launching an aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond to that with all the resources available to us.
The Polish authorities, who are nurturing their revanchist ambitions, hide the truth from their people. The truth is that the Ukrainian cannon fodder is no longer enough for the West. That is why it is planning to use other expendables – Poles, Lithuanians and everyone else they do not care about.
I can tell you that this is an extremely dangerous game, and the authors of such plans should think about the consequences.
Mr Naryshkin, I hope that your service, just as the other special services, will closely monitor the developments.”
👍Much appreciated, text gives an opportunity to digest a lot of info without distraction of video.
Thanks for this
Great comments Mike. As I wrote in my recent article, the US
MIC needs wars to stay profitable. Ukraine is losing. The Russians likely not want or need Galicia. Let the Western Ukrainians go there and let the Poles try and deal with them. Belarus is anothe matter, of course. The US -- Biden at least-- would love to see the Poles fight the Russians. But since the Russians would win handily, the Poles will not be so ambitious.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/bidens-war-wwiii
I quoted your timeline on another substack before you posted this :)
I just finished rewatching the 'Wolyn' movie wherein normal Ukrainians, during WW2, were impossibly stuck between the Germans, Poles and Russians... with the Banderites being the most savage.
Maybe what I next say is not true, but my impression was he said all this off-the-cuff as we've seen Putin do before. Then I try (really hard) to imagine this sort of mental ability and agility from any (but esp. the Clown-in-Chief) of our dear Western leaders. Sad.
Stoicism.
For info: Journo 'Merchet' is a russophobe, neocon, cia asset zero credibility. Like BH Levy or even worse.
The news outlet is 24/7 pro ukrops his name is LCI(la chaine info), people call LCI now LCU La chaine(network) Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/russophobieorg/status/1630292550996172800/photo/1
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=lcu+la+chaine+ukraine&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiiztn2u6GAAxWC7LsIHUQ5C2MQ0pQJegQIQRAB&biw=1227&bih=567&dpr=1.3
Whatever the fuck Strelkov's story was? Just like Gonzalo Lira. You push your luck far enough, and it runs out. I have zero sympathy. The Chinese have a saying. The high nail gets the hammer. If you are going to fuck with them? You have to go grey man. Lone wolf. Use a rifle, not your mouth.
Good point bringing up Lira. I mean on one side I respect his courage and willingness to speak truth to power. And he was telling the truth (Strelkov isn't). But sticking around in Ukraine after you've already been picked up and shaken down by the nazis wasn't very bright of him and now has anyone heard from him in a while? Point being, your Chinese saying applies whether or not what "the high nail" says is true or false.
Thr sbu had him on house arrest. If he violated it, his family may be implicated. Are you under naxi or romania house arrest or ever were persecuted by rhe state police?
My understanding was that he was put under *temporary* house arrest after which point he began videos again. If he still couldn't leave Ukraine (how much family does he have there? He's Chilean American - like a girlfriend or something?) then he should have STFU at that time. Instead he kept 'vlogging' and doing interviews where he was critical of the Ukrainian side. Not too bright.
I believe I read a wife and mother-in-law? But that's enough to have a strongly-linked extended family in Ukraine.
And that's fair, but there remain a few questions. IIRC, he was only temporarily put under house arrest. At some point his computer and internet connection were returned/restored and he began making critical public statements about the Ukro regime again. It's possible that during the period after he was first detained or put under house arrest they monitored him and his wife/mother in law closely to the degree that escaping Ukraine would've been difficult and dangerous. But again, if so, why start doing what got you in trouble to begin with again, and especially knowing the brutality of the ukro-nazis inclusive of their all-out war on information (which he was putting out)? That's where I begin to question his intelligence or at least his ability to keep his ego in check.
And context is important too. It wasn't like anything he was saying was actionable to Russia or any Ukrainian dissenters that may still exist. It was simply situational reportage and commentary/opinion that was highly critical of the Zelensky regime and the proxy Ukrainian position from geopolitical standpoint. IOW, just saying "mean things" about them while knowing he was being watched carefully, that they have crushed and even killed dissenting journalists, and that the consequences to him and his family could be dire if he kept going. So I still question either his intelligence or ego and he might have had as good a chance of escaping the country with his family as he would have had in staying and continuing to publicy criticize the government without them taking further action against him up to and including disappearing him and/or killing him.
What u should have questioned is why you think u have a grasp of facts. They are incorrect.
Once u r on sbu nazi sht list. It is permanent until u die. He was also on the mirovets kill list. Along with vladimir and elon musk.
His former wife and child are somewhere in ukraine.
If he tried to run, he would end up dead.
This makes sense, but maybe you could clarify. Once you are on the list you're there until you die. So were they merely waiting to kill him no matter what he did once he got his laptop, phone and camera back? If so he didn't seem to say as much in his video dispatches after he was picked up the first time. I mean if he knew he was going to die anyway, I can see why he might keep on criticizing the Ukros after the first "warning", but I didn't get that impression from him in his various interviews and videos afterwards.
What do you think has happened to him? Did they not simply kill him the first time because it would have been a PR (public relations) disaster for the Ukro-nazis? I know they are trying to control and manage all information coming from the country (see Chris Hedges article today on the film "20 Days in Mariupol" where he says that they intentionally avoid showing any Ukrainian crimes or atrocities for example).
It is quite clear he said at times he is making himself very loud so that they cannot disappear him easily.
Lira is captivr at kharkiv awaiting federation liberation. Or ideally an exchange for assange and lira. Azov already had many released for prisoners.
That's nice of you.
He was definitely brave. Brave but stupid in the end.
I still have a use for him so it is not the end. Nor for tate.
Who has Tate now? The Romanians? Or did they hand him over to someone else?
Tate and his brother was in solitary confinement for 3 months. Released on house arrest so tuvker flew in and interviewed tate. Good conversation.
M
Romania still has him and he also refuses to flee the country as he likes romania and thinks the charges are bogus. Lira also likes ukrainians.
I think the difference between the two is whom the Kremlin etc. feels is FUNDING Strelkov. Under no illusion that Lira was being funded by anyone but his patrons and audience.
What the heck is going on with these guys like Priggo, Gubarev and Strelkov? It's like they're asking to be sent off to a Siberian work prison or something. I mean, seriously what is it that they think they're going to accomplish by goading Putin's administration? So they want the "slow" pace picked up - Okay, but that by nature involves more risks of a certain type. Grown men being this impatient reminds me of the American Neocons during the Bush/Cheney years. Listening to people like that never ends well and I'm sure Putin knows this.
All extremists are of the same basic mindset - a mixture of narcissist, paranoia and psychopathy. Thus, reason and common sense exit stage left.
Yep. And the Russian extremists are pretty crazy too! :)
Prigozhin is not the same category as the other 2. He had literally a billion dollars of annual revenue getting taken away - given the general gangster nature of oligarchs plus a real possibility of him losing his shit to some degree - I personally had zero surprises over anything he did including his aborted coup.
The other 2 are clearly just pond scum making a living by pushing the extremes in the blogosphere. There's a reason why isolated groups trend towards ever greater radicalism.
Did he? Is the story over yet? maskirovka
The spies like Larry Johnson want to believe it is a story, but they're hammers looking at nails.
The reality is Prigozhin's actions in the coup hurt Russia materially: dead Russian pilots, reinvigorated neocons and Ukrainians, and gullible people on the internet in the rest of the world wasting time analyzing nothing.
If this is maskirovka - the architect should be shot.
Uh huh-- 🤣🤣 re-invigorated neocons-- seriously-- how's that false flag op going? how's that Ukrainian push (didnt even get past the 1st line) going? Oh how did Vilieus NATO meeting go? 🤣🤣
That's the point: without the renewed "evidence of Russia/Putin teetering" - Vilnius and the failed counteroffensive would have been much harder to overlook.
"Grown men being this impatient reminds me of the American Neocons during the Bush/Cheney years. "
What are the options for lapdogs raised in the lap of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN ... same applies to 99.99% of puppets all over the world ... worse in some places than others!
Alcoholics, drug addicts, sex addicts.... the whole range straight out of the belly of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN!
It isn't unusual for chancers to advocate a strategy that they will never have to account for, like De Valera and Lloyd George. It's a way of disowning the cost and preparing to appropriate the results.
Its called ego, greed, the dying need to be/feel essential/important. Its human hubris-- look to the west for SO many like this. Neil Young, Chomsky, Hedges re COVID, Stern re: anything. They alll have a deep need to be front and centre. Ego --plays have been written forever about its fall.
Everyone needs a feeling of importance in one way or another. Strelkov probably has never successfully processed his cowardice in battle and knows the disdain for him is strong. That sort of inner denial/struggle sometimes comes out in self-destructive ways.
Or, he's just a grade-A asshole.
To your point, and to c1ue (regarding Priggo having a huge financial stake) elsewhere in this comment subthread, that's understandable. But I'm trying to find analogous situations in other countries at war. Where 'important' public voices and actors (meaning Priggo who did important things) begin to openly and loudly criticize the prosecution of a war and seemingly attempt to destroy morale and/or turn public opinion against the sitting government when they know that the government (meaning Putin's administration in this case) are also under intense 'regime change' pressure from outside the country and have been for a while; to the point that the war they are fighting has, as one of its precise aims/goals, ousting Putin and ostensibly installing a new Yeltsin type figure that will allow the predatory Western finance-capital-energy-agriculture interests to balkanize the RF and swoop in to buy up all the pieces.
I guess the TL/DR question is one of context. These guys know what's at stake and if they don't they're absolute morons. This includes Priggo. Which brings to mind another angle and that is - as so-called insiders do they know something we don't know and that the Putin administration doesn't want us to know? I find that hard to believe, but again I'm struggling to find another recent historical example of *this many* people within a nation involved in an existential war so openly criticizing their own country's prosecution of that war at such a critical time in the war. So it's not only the psychology that fascinates me, or the seeming lack of precedent, but also the notion that something might be going on behind the scenes that is altogether different from the picture being painted for us by both the Western regime-change media/governments - AND - the "official" narrative coming from the Russian government. The fog of war is thick, I guess...
Not a lot of good news for Ukraine. Would assume that Poland wouldn't be mad enough to want to take on a direct war with Russia, however they could well believe, perhaps rightly, that they could take Western Ukraine without a direct confrontation. Things may not be likely to get any prettier soon but more convoluted is certainly on the cards.
Poland coming in to "save" Western Ukraine could well be spun as a NATO victory. Ukraine due to its incompetence and corruption wasted the generous NATO assistance and completely ignored the superior military strategy suggested, Poland comes in to bravely stop the Russian hordes from their planned invasion of Europe. Russia balks with fear at the sight of an actual NATO force etc.
The moment poles crossed the border should "coincide" with a massive missile strike along ukr border that sobers up their pretensions quickly. Poland will not be invited to NUTO's VE victory parade, same as in 1945, but for a different reason. There won't be any victory this time. Polish governments have always been like Ukraine, they learn nothing from past failures, including their current covert operation in Donbass.
The time to take out some strategic bridges in the west & north east is now. Same with infrastructure of power generating plants. SMO in this uncivil war is done; this is war & should be waged as such.
I would let them have galicia. Lira s analysis is correct. Ujraine nazis would fight poles then.
The fascist Second Republic is eyeing western Ukraine again, like Grendel.
And NATO gets to move one step closer to Russia, at no material cost to themselves.
Washington would not need to try hard to spin that as a win.
You know what they say about Ass-u-me right?
I am really curious what this point from Putin refers to...... I have no idea RE Czechoslovakia! --- “Poland seized part of Lithuania, seized its historical lands from Russia and participated in the division of Czechoslovakia, taking advantage of the civil war.” Any suggestion, please?
AHA! Apologies. My question was already answered above: “As is well known, Poland also took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia following the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler in 1938, by fully occupying Cieszyn Silesia.”
But what “civil war”? In Czechoslovakia? Huh?🧐
In Russia:
"With its actions incited by the West, Poland took advantage of the tragedy of the Civil War in Russia and annexed certain historical Russian provinces. In dire straits, our country had to sign the Treaty of Riga in 1921 and recognise the annexation of its territories."
Indeed! A good point. Back to history books. There was no civil war at the beginning of WWII. Still, Putin knowledge is impressive.
Depends on how one defines "civil war". Both the Poles and Czechs were conducting major "ethnic cleansing" (i.e., dispossession, expulsion, and killing) activities against the original ethnic Germans within their countries well prior to the official start of the war in 1939. Contrary to Allied propaganda, Hitler didn't just wake up one morning and decide to invade Czechoslovakia in 1938 for no reason at all. Actual numbers of just how many of these Germans perished at the hands of the Poles and Czechs cannot be substantiated, but I have read of claims ranging from many tens of thousands to millions.
P.S. Always love a good Jim Cramer reference. LOL. Whatever that dumbfuck says - do the opposite and enjoy the best night's sleep you've had in years.
Regarding the Ukrainian cemetery crisis, perhaps their allies in Berlin can provide some suggestions for disposing of large numbers of bodies.
Nurse! Meds Trolley now!
If you mean the bodies of the Wehrmacht, I would tend to agree that they are capable of helping a lot. If, however, you mean any other bodies, I'm afraid you are the victim of the 20th century's greatest Psyops that paved the way to the Western world as we know it today - crumbling before our eyes.
Antisemite provocateur.
AshkeNAZIs are not Semitic.
Zionists aren't Jewish.
LOL
Since zionism was invented by Theodore Herzl and his cronies as a replacement for Judaism it follows that it is an antisemite ideology. QED
Unconfirmed reports by Donbass are 20 +/- cremation units are deployed in the south to lighten the cargo 200 real estate problem.
I think this question is best put directly to the Berlins by the Russians
And then you have to account all the bodies strewn around which don’t get a grave (other in those so called mass graves which are in these wars an acute necessity) or much later on after the war.
Poor Igor, he was given more than enough time to repent. Thus, rather than wasting resources to feeding people like him, it would be beneficial to get him an AK, a vest strapped with remote-detonated-TNT and march him to the front. His death will cleanse his name.
So you're saying that because Strelkov was stridently critical of Putin, this make it somehow less than outrageous that he's being imprisoned for stating his opinion?
If it's illegal to criticize Putin, how does this effect the public opinion polls claiming that Putin has a high approval rating? Does the average Russian feel safe to state a true opinion? Or does every nail that sticks up, get hammered down in one way or another?
This arrest only plays into the hands of the Neocons who claim that Russia is a totalitarian state led by a despot.
Historically, freedom of opinion during war has always been sacrificed. And for practical reasons - opinions matter and once the decision has been made to go to war, almost any government will restrict those rights to some degree, especially where the morale of the population and the military is affected. It is unfortunate, but necessary, I'm afraid. I am more concerned about freedom of opinion during peace - the kind you see disappearing from virtually every Western nation today.
But isn't NATO also at war? And if that's the case, shouldn't Simplicius be shut down too? Be careful what you're applauding, or at least justifying.
In the minds of their public, no. But that is irrelevant. The fact is that free speech is already being seriously challenged in all NATO countries and more in the Western alliance. Think social media.
The arguments used to suppress free speech are always framed in warlike terms. We're fighting the virus. We're fighting global warming, and racism, and gender wars.
Are we here to make excuses for the censors, or to stand up for everyone's right to speak freely without fear of imprisonment?
You're allowed to criticize Putin in Russia, but that's not all Strelkov did. He repeatedly called for Putin's dismissal and underhandedly calling for him to be deposed/overthrown. That's crossing the line into inciting insurrection.
Furthermore, there's a clear Russian law that states you're now allowed to spread false/fraudulent propaganda about the SMO/Russian troops that's harmful to their safety/wellbeing by virtue of ...being false, i.e. lies.
Strelkov spread numerous lies about the SMO and Russian troops, thus breaking the law. He did so by often falling for fake Ukrainian propaganda himself, an example of which I gave in the article, which makes it even worse because it means he's literally amplifying enemy intelligence service psyops which in some ways indirectly makes him an accomplice.
I have never heard of Strelkov before this article, possibly because Russian source news (?) is mainly blocked in the free democracy where I live. However you hint that he is effectively working for Ukraine, probably unwittingly. Follow the money.
I find that Strelkov has appeared to be more quoted and discussed in Western press than in Russian media. He is always used as a prime example of Russians who want regime change and pointing out the 'corruption' of the Russian government and military.
Most probably you've heard about him before, he is the guy found guilty for downing MH17 by District Court of The Hague (in absentia).
"Russian law that states you're now allowed to spread false/fraudulent propaganda about the SMO/Russian troops that's harmful to their safety/wellbeing by virtue of ...being false, i.e. lies." ??????
Obviously a typo
now = not
Obviously, but definitely THE wrong word to make a typo in that comment. Not nit picking, just questioning180 degree change of meaning. Spelcheque is a pain in the arse at the best of times.
Sorry, nitpicking. Especially given how much (and how well) he writes. And spell-check (Spelcheque?) wouldn't necessarily pick that up.
exactly
By "underhandedly", you mean that he didn't specifically plan for any insurrection.
I don't know what's true and what's false about the "SMO". This is a law that places the Russian government in charge of determining what's true and what isn't. And furthermore, there's a huge difference between "false statements" and "lies". If Strelkov repeated Ukrainian news sources in good faith, believing that they were accurate, then that is not lying.
By your standards, your own blog should absolutely be illegal in the West, and you too should be rotting in jail. Which would be tragic, and outrageous: because ultimately, this war is not Russia vs. NATO. It's a war of extermination: the oligarchs against all.
This is the line of shit that this fake non-Russian Rolo Slavskiy spews on his crap blog - that this is an oligarchs war. No one believes that accept for a small number of cretins who think Strelkov was some kind of significant historical figure, & not an old burned out traitor. Russian soldiers, commanders, & the Russian populace know this is an actual war for Russia's survival. Russian soldiers know what they are fighting for.
Now we know how stalin came to power
I think Rolo, Strelkov and Simplicius would agree that this is an actual war for Russia's survival. It's also an actual war for Ukraine's survival, right? Every dead body is an actual dead body.
My point is, the oligarchs are not fighting for their survival, they're thriving on the chaos. Rolo's point is that the Russian oligarchs are largely loyal to the West, more than they are to Russian peasants.
'Rolo Slavskiy' is obviously a pen name, but Rolo claims he has Russian ancestry.
Any oligarchy is "loyal" to only one thing.
Whatever brings them the most wealth, power and safety.
Claiming that Russian oligarchs are "loyal" to the West is as ridiculous as claiming that they are "loyal" to Russia.
A few sold their Russian assets and left at the beginning.
A few got fully sanctioned and are now completely dependent on the Russian state to guarantee their wealth and safety.
Most are under some kind of sanctions but are hedging their bets by having their wealth both in Russia and in some neutral country like the UAE (Dubai, etc.).
"By your standards, your own blog should absolutely be illegal in the West, and you too should be rotting in jail. "
FFS. Simplicius is thorough in his research, doesn't rely on single sources (or at least says so if his information is uncomfirmed), is obviously biased but fair and is not calling for anyone to be deposed or worse. Strelkov is an entirely different animal, shouting at the top of his lungs his hatred for Putin and doing it off of not one, but several Uke-sponsored fake sites.
Simplicius wants NATO to lose, and the existing governments are doing a pretty good job of screwing up the war effort in every possible way. It's so bad that the Russians might win in spite of themselves.
So why would he agitate for change? His stuff would be illegal because it is obviously going to undermine the morale of any Western soldier who reads it. It doesn't even matter if it's entirely factual. Censors hate the truth most of all.
LOL!! How does criticizing Biden work for you? Ask Matt Taibbi-- IRS next day. 🤔 Be careful of being too "on the side of the angels"-- not too much about the US or anyone else (same here in Canada) about being" lily white" (so to speak)
So you're saying that because Matt Taibbi is being investigated by the IRS, so it's OK that Strelkov is in jail?
Uh no-- love your straw man. Its apples and oranges-- no comparison between the two. Taibbi has a clear income, Strelkov doesnt have one 🤔 as Simplicius points out-- how does he fund his spacious flat? Inquiring minds want to know. I am sure the Russian authorities know exactly where he gets his money from, who he meets. The ego and spite of the 5th/6th columnists in any country is eye-rolling. To compare Taibbi to this is laughable. And frankly that the US sets IRS guys on him tells you everything.
We do have a little bit of evidence as to Strelkov's funding. That is, the Wagner doctor's claim that Strelkov collects donations to help the soldiers, and provides no accountability for the proceeds. What sort of people are giving donations to Strelkov to help soldiers at the front? That wouldn't be the Ukraine or US, it would be the Russian "patriots".
How is that any different from Taibbi, who collects donations and subscription fees from his supporters in the West? Does Taibbi provide an accounting, how much money is coming in and where it goes? And how is there anything criminal or morally wrong about any of this?
For that matter, isn't Taibbi's political position in the West, almost exactly analogous to Russian "6th columnist" authors? That is, he advocates for reform in the government, and for the truth wherever it leads; which in this case, as Taibbi and Strelkov would presumably agree, points to Western culpability in sabotaging the Minsk agreements and carrying out sustained terrorist attacks against the Donbass.
And furthermore, what about the many US authors who have worked for RT or Strategic Culture, and presumably gotten paid for it? Should they all be thrown in prison?
He's charged for insurrection, not criticism. Two different animals.
The announcement says he was charged for "public calls to extremism", whatever that means. Simplicius goes on to quote an article from Strelkov lamenting that "the country won't survive another 6 years" if Putin stays in power. Strelkov regrets that Putin doesn't see this, do the honorable thing, and resign.
Simplicius speculates that the arrest may be related to a complaint submitted to the prosecutor's office by a Wagner doctor, who alleged that Strelkov was accepting donations without accountability. This doctor also said he thought insulting Putin was a crime. Yes, Strelkov certainly did insult Putin.
But where exactly is the incitement to insurrection? If Strelkov called for an armed uprising to get rid of Putin and the entire government, where are the quotes?
Stelkov is a bump in the road—significantly insignificant. What matters is how Russia does over the next 6 months—little else. And what matters, too, is Washington's assessment of the war. Will they apply a tourniquet or encourage bleed-out? If it's bleed out, proxies will bleed--particularly those next in line—the Poles and the Lithuanians. And would expect truly horrific terrorist attacks on Mother Russia. The main threat of a push toward recklessness is not nutty Strelkov and his group, it is the prospect of major terror attacks in Russia. The outrage will be well nigh impossible to bottle up. Terror (and economics) has always been The Empire's trump card in international affairs. The slaughter of innocents plays to The Hegemon's interest--provoking a reckless response. Kremlin, forewarned is forearmed. This path would be standard operating procedure if not for...yes...China. Shoot your wad with Russia, oops, now how do we screw with China? Perhaps The Empire will see that cut and run—“oh well, we tried”—is advantageous. Then the tap goes dry for Ukraine and the terror option is turned off. We'll see.
Exactly, I agree. At the end of the day the propagandists make a much bigger deal about Strelkov and his arrest than there really is. Ultimately he's a rather irrelevant figure and it will have no real effect on anything. As you said, what's important is what's happening on the line and in the rear, insofar as Russia's wrangling of the logistical/supply issues and streamlining it in order to fashion a smoothly running war machine that can up the pressure and take full offensive initiative in the future, to take advantage of the AFU's combat exhaustion.
Not sure-- he makes a great example for the rest of the money taking 5th/6th columnists don't you think?
"The more likely thing will be the continual expansion of Russian operations in the Svatove-Kremennaya region and gradually branching out from there, but we’ll see if we get wind of any new indications to point to something greater."
This does indeed seem the more likely scenario at this point. Recall that one of the reasons Russia pulled back from these areas last year is that they did not have the manpower in place to defend them properly. It would seem they appear to be preparing to expand the frontline now well into Kharkov, so they are amassing the necessary forces to support that effort and defend it later. I have heard estimates from 100K to 160K troops massed. I am not a military expert, but I don't believe this is enough to take a city like Kharkov, unless of course the Ukrainian defenses collapse on the way, so perhaps they will be best utilised in driving towards Lyman and Izyum, taking the towns and preparing for the final offensive towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. I believe the first objective will always be to liberate the remaining Donbass regions along with Kherson and Zaporizhia. But of course, this is war - and plans change and methods adapt.
Contrary to early Beltway hopes and expectations,
Russia neither collapsed internally nor capitulated to the collective West’s demands for regime change in Moscow.
Washington underestimated Russia’s societal cohesion, its latent military potential, and its relative immunity to Western economic sanctions.
As a result, Washington’s proxy war against Russia is failing.
All my life I felt sorry for the Poles because of WW2 and the Iron Curtain. Apparently, they're dicks.
I recommend looking up the history of the Teutonic Knights, the Polish Lithuanian kingdom and the generalized feudal nonsense that historical Lithuania and Poland exerted over the Slavic peasants. There's a reason why they were taken down by the USSR at the beginning of WW2, and furthermore a reason why Poland was part of Tsarist Russia even before Napoleon went down in 1810.
Note I am not saying the Russians are blameless.
What I am saying is that there are literally hundreds of years of animosity between Lithuania/Poland and Russia - with the 2 former being the bitches of the latter for the last several hundred years because there are a hell of a lot more Russians, and these Russians are now industrialized as opposed to the hordes of wooden stick armed peasants in the Teutonic Knight/Polish-Lithuanian empire era.
The only good Pole is a deed pole.
Great!
I don't agree with this.
Again, the regular Polish citizens seem like perfectly fine people - just like the regular citizens all over the world are perfectly fine people.
That Poland's leaders today are fools doesn't make Poland any different than most of the other EU nations.
It's a joke, and a pretty good one, given Poland's chequered history
Your idea that gvmts may be more or less bad, but that 'the people' are universally 'fine' (which I'll take as an equivalent for good) is a fallacy, and poor one at that, and, if it comes to it, a peculiar westie fallacy..
...reaching back to homey rough spoken settler sentiments, best summed up by homey etc ruling class types such as Lincoln
Fools for people get fools for leaders....
I've actually been to Poland and know Polish people - so my views are not based on theory but fact. Most people everywhere are perfectly content to live and let be so long as they aren't faced with direct personal economic shortfalls or overt political persecution.
I don't really understand why the possibility of Polish leaders acting against the interests of their own people is so hard to understand - given that the same is going on all over Europe and the West in general.
You do not restrict your 'the people are just fine' homily to the Polish, it's the whole of humankind for you is just fine: but perhaps, also, you have been everywhere as well as to Poland
That the ruling class does not act in the interests of the 'people', and not just not in the westies, is a well known fact,
People are 'perfectly content to live and let be' - they wish....
For they will not be, ruled as they are by a class which exploits and impoverishes them, and who are invariably fools, as well
Yet they put up with their lot and this class, not knowing any better, or fearing they would do worse
If Poland is such a "bitch" weak country full of proverbially dumb Polacks, why is it you come together as a pack of hyaenas every other post to dunk gratuitous spite and contempt on her?
"Viel Feind, viel Ehr" as the saying goes chez another, more respectable Polish neighbour, this one responsible for an order of magnitude less horrors on her than the Soviet Union.
Poland is a bitch to Russia because they think they can reprise the Polish Lithuanian empire when this is utterly ludicrous - only slightly more so than Baltic fantasies of same.
Nor am I terribly impressed with your assertions of Polish innocence:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poland-honors-world-war-ii-group-that-collaborated-with-nazis/
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5077683,00.html
Poles were responsible for plenty of atrocities against Ukrainians and Russians what not when the Polish Pancerny ruled the steppes; that the sovereignty of Poland was relegated to nonexistence for most of the recent several hundred years under the Tsars, then the USSR does not mean the historical ethnic animosity has gone away on either side.
Poland had a choice to be a hostile but neutral nation with Russia; they've clearly chosen a different path and will have to accept whatever consequences result.
Wilsonian madness this is, trying to weight atrocities from each side, in order to justify one side's or the other's moral high ground.
Going West to East, say from Ireland to Japan, each border you pass there will be historical massacres still vividly remembered and ethnic rivalries seething under the surface: Irish vs English, Scots vs English, Icelanders vs Norwegians, French vs anyone bordering them or across the Channel ... Polacks vs Russians ... all the way to Koreans vs Japanese.
The only place this natural pattern of international relations does not happen is in North America, with its artificial "nations" composed of people imported from elsewhere and melted together during the last one or two centuries. This imported people, being deracinated and maladjusted, can obviously only fantasize on what it is like to have a true nationality, with its rivalries, its millennial history, in the way you did with your comment, for instance.
Do you really think that if Russia and China win a hypothetical world war and the USA is defeated, they are going to let this childish Wilsonian mentality stand? That you will happily be able to keep on spouting crap about stuff you have no clue about, and no one will pretend to notice like the world does now?
I do agree - there are an infinity of grievances in Europe from a historical standpoint.
As for the US: there are less but they do actually still exist. The Civil War, for example, was a very traumatic bloodletting but it is literally the only one. Europe, in contrast, had Civil War like occurrences every couple of decades for literally centuries.
But I think the unity of the US is enormously over-rated. It is not because of "deracination" and "maladjustment" in my view, but rather because most Americans are simply oblivious to anything that doesn't directly affect them.
Why should they be, when world and government events have so rarely made a tangible difference for the vast majority?
Furthermore, my view is that this purported unity is more a function of the idea of the "American Dream" - an explicit bargain where everyone and their children are going to get a better life if they follow the rules and work hard. Not so much different than the bargain the present China government has with its people, for example.
But the difference between China and the US now is that the US bargain is broken. Wages for the majority of the population - i.e. those not in the top 1% to3% - have been flat to down for decades. Financial and social mobility have plummeted, ever more tiny minority affirmative action notwithstanding.
Americans today, I suspect, are becoming far more French/European in understanding that government, social institutions, corporations, and every other organization imaginable are not their friends per se - and that progress only occurs by fighting for space at the trough with every one of those institutions. Mercouris has noted something similar in the UK only it is faith in the monarchy/government representing overall popular interests.
As for "Wilsonian" - I care very little for such labels. WW1 was very little different than the Spanish American war or the subsequent suppression of the Phillippines rebellion or the Manifest Destiny/Indian subjugation era - they are all examples of overt economic interest driving national policy, dressed up in whatever will sell to the public. R2P and "human rights" are simply the latest incarnation, and will depart the scene just as summarily as those past previous incarnations did.
The difference this time around is that the US does not have a frontier to grow into or a massive rebuilding effort to sell into as well as drive international changes. China overtaking the US as the leading (but not hegemonic) power on Earth is as inevitable as the US overtaking the UK in the WW1 to WW2 period - a transition massively accelerated by UK idiocy in attempting to forestall the outcome by waging wars much as this US transition seems doomed to repeat the UK's mistakes of the past.
I am not quite sure why you called me a bitch (or „suka”). Perhaps this is because I love Dostoyevsky and Tchechov while I am not particularly fond of the democracy of the tsars or the bolsheviks? I agree it might be difficult for you to understand Western democracy, its pros and cons, its successes and fails. Perhaps because there has never been any democracy in Russia ever? And you seem to again believe
in yet another dictator - Putin - rather than building a space within Russia for yourself? Btw, I have never called any Russian the way you called me. And I never will.
If Poles got together with Amercians, French, Germans, Italians, English and Russians late in the evening we would all probably argue if we prefer to drink Italian or French wine. But all of us would definitely agree our governments suck and our Western democracy struggles. Probably you would be the only person at the table being proud of your government and the politics of your country explaining to all of us that you have the solution; Putin. I would laugh, I woulld laugh at you as a bitch, because it has been the same solution as you always have had; over the centries, whoever was rulling your country, whatever foreign or demestic dictator occupied Russia, you have always followed him and trusterd him at 100% calling everyone around a bitch, espacially your nearest neighbours. It
Is more difficult for you to call an Amercain a bitch, obviously it has always bern much easier for you
to call Ukrainians or Poles with this word. We know It. Trust me that every stupid Pollack knows Putin taking about our borders with Germany and Ukrainę and Belafus serves ONLY one purposes:to encourge radicals and more war in Europe. Every suka in my country kmows your dictator is just looking for sth - to use all powers of the Russia to continue the war. Everyone in Europe and US see the propaganda around. But in Russia, people seem to forget about propaganda of ussr or tsar?
I would be more than happy we all have a drink rather than war but before we do Let’s please forget about yet anothet prophet in Russia as Putin is No diffwrent to anything that we have all seen here and there before.
With the qualifier Wilsonian I meant the policies of self-determination of local people that were applied in the treaty of Versailles that decided territorial outcomes after WW1.
The concept basically translates in a very naive interpretation of international politics, whereby polities are like little kids that are expected not to bicker among themselves and to behave well in class.
So thanks to Wilson the grown-up child, who all European statists viewed as some kind of novelty, Frankensteins like Jugoslavia, a powder keg of rival ethnicities no less explosive than the Hausburg Monarchy it substituted, and Czechoslovakia, a country militarily indefensible, came into being.
This also among other perplexing decisions, like adjudicating Transylvania to Romania, after it had been part of the crown of Hungary for how long, 500 years maybe... yes Romanians were the majority over there, but this is not the way to handle things.
Only an American... that is, someone outside of the normal flow of human history, incapable to perceive nuances like the need to preserve legitimacy .. could take such radical decisions, that led to a major war WW2 20 years later, and isolated regional conflicts ever since.
No decision so radical as to redraw the map of Europe had been taken before, when decisions were made by those who had skin in the game: the concert of Britain and the main continental powers.
Now Americans when interacting with Old World people, often come across as "Wilsonian" even in the small facets of every day life... your gratuitous spiteful comment against Poland comes across as Wilsonian, for instance: a sweeping, loaded remark made by someone who has nothing to do with the topic and can never hope to gain an inner understanding of it
Wow, gave the good ol' USA a pass on massacres and atrocities? Think again grasshopper. Start with the indigenous people, move to all the wars of expansion, how about slavery and the Civil War. Then there's all the demonic ideological wars, does Laos ring a bell, 2 million civilians bombed to their deaths (in secret) because USA didn't like their gov't, on and on and on ...
Documented estimates put the number of dead worldwide since WW2 at the hands of America at between 20-30 million! And their still at it obviously.
excellent reminder thanks
(👏🏼 Simplicius) ...
Isn’t it laughable when we roll back the clock to 2008:
“WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland’s then leader that they divide Ukraine between themselves as far back as 2008, Poland’s parliamentary speaker, Radoslaw Sikorski, said in an interview published by the U.S. Politico website.”
“He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine. … This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow.”
“We made it very, very clear to them — we wanted nothing to do with this,” Sikorski said.
Sikorski’s account is not the first suggestion that Russia was seeking Poland’s support in partitioning Ukraine.
🤔.. now it appears, times may be changing .. 😉
Well you are taking it for granted the Pole was not lying.
How is that? ...
You are quoting Sikorski as if it a true and factual account. Maybe he lied.
Then you miss my point. If he lied then current events show them to be hypocrites ... if he didn’t lie then they changed their mines when it suits them ..
Get it 💡
The Sikorsky whose wife is the proverbially truthful Anne Applebaum ? :)
Obviously he told the truth ! :)
Oh yes, Applebaum 🤢
The Sikorski who is a total russophobe, along with his wife.
Excellent writeup - keep up the great work!
Re: Strelkov
Again, while he did great work fighting 8 years ago - this has never meant he has the least bit of credibility in strategy, tactics, politics or anything else above unit level leadership. Nor has he demonstrated any since then.
Re: Poland
I would note that Polish troops in West Ukraine aren't necessarily just to replace/augment Ukraine's military. Let's not forget that Polish troops "defending" West Ukraine could effectively also mean Poland annexing it - de facto if not de jure - along the lines of: we'll (Poles) hold down the fort here in Lvov and Ivano-Frenkel while you poor Ukrainian saps continue to die on the front lines. And then when Ukraine collapses, those "protected" regions vote to join Poland.
While I agree that Poland's leaders are among the more rabid yapping dogs of the West - it is still far from clear to me that either the Polish people or the Polish military share this enthusiasm. It isn't like Poles don't know full well the full can of whup-ass that's been opened up by Russia in Ukraine.
Re: Wagner and northern front out of Belarus
I agree, this is low probability of the extreme. I don't see Belarus allowing offensive actions by anyone out of their territory unless they really want to join in the SMO. And why would they want to join in the SMO?
Re: miltary situation on the ground
Mercouris has noted that Ukraine has lost in the order of 200 Bradleys so far in roughly 6 weeks of offensive. I don't know where he gets this from, but if true - this makes the vaunted 2000 Bradley reserve of the US military look pretty small in comparison. I don't see easily accessible Bradley annual production information - but this 2019 link talks about a contract to make 168. Even if this is just for production in 1 year - which I significantly doubt - it would be far below the loss rate Mercouris notes: https://www.baesystems.com/en-uk/article/u-s--army-extends-contract-for-bradley-fighting-vehicle-upgrades
And this talks about the Bradley replacement: full production to start in 2030 LOL
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/10/11/us-army-gets-its-first-look-at-bradley-replacement-options/
Lastly: Russian offensives
Again, not the least bit clear to me that Russia needs to execute large arrow offensives. In the short term - so long as Ukraine is being forced to attack, the meat grinder grinds on.
Secondly, even Western sources are of the belief that support given to Ukraine will continue to reduce. It is particularly notable that Europe has literally hit the wall with tank and armored vehicle contributions; it is now just Uncle Sam giving goodies, and Sam's goodie bag is visibly smaller each month. F16s are pretty much all that is left - and there are indications that both the saner/business minded MIC and US military are starting to understand that the full blown reputational dumpster fire of US military power will only blaze hotter if pictures of shot-down F16s join the burning Leapord, burning Bradley, burning M777 and burning HIMARS slide shows. The UK has clearly recognized this danger since it seems very clear that the double handful of Challengers are still guarding depots somewhere in the rear - I never thought the term REMF would apply to tanks. UK armor LOL.
No problem if the F16s burn, they still have the invincible, mighty, stealthy F35 to save the day. Hoorah!
Not really sure this matters since the F16 is the primary export airplane for the US - outside of first tier allies.
Furthermore, the US itself still has nearly 1000-F16s vs. the 450-F35s in the US now.
LOL!
"While I agree that Poland's leaders are among the more rabid yapping dogs of the West - it is still far from clear to me that either the Polish people or the Polish military share this enthusiasm. It isn't like Poles don't know full well the full can of whup-ass that's been opened up by Russia in Ukraine."
Nobody will ask the average frustrated Pole his opinion. The average frustrated Pole will be given his opinion.
The average frustrated Pole is the one that has to make real sacrifices should Poland's leaders lead them into direct conflict with Russia - whether it is standard of living or literal life sacrifices.
This is not the same as junk spending so typical of governments in peacetime, which are a "boiling a frog in water" setup.
Do I really have to trot the Gõring quote again?
You can trot it out all you want.
And my response will be the same: the collective madness of Adolf's Germany is not replicated anywhere in the world since or before - Ukraine of today included.
Trying to draw lessons from that historical aberration is highly speculative.
Recall the end of the quote "It works the same in any country."
Moreover, i suspect that Göring had more practical experience in these matters than some dude on the internet.
What I recall is that Adolf's methods failed - and so why should I believe his main propagandist?
Every charlatan says they're right - but they lie for a living.
Why should a serial liar be believed for anything? Why exactly does this loser have any credibility because as I have clearly noted, and which you have yet to even dispute - that Adolf's Germany has never been replicated?
If the East German Stasi couldn't do it even with literally half of the exact real estate and the same people as Adolf - I see zero reason to believe that numbskull.
"those "protected" regions vote to join Poland"
I'm afraid it will not be that simple. Bandera who carried out massacres of Poles in Volhynia and other ethnic cleansing against Poles (using his UPA army) and who was nazi collaborator during WWII is literally a national hero in Western Ukraine. They name streets after him, create his monuments, celebrate his birthday and so on. Poles and Western Ukrainians are not best friends to be honest.
from wiki:
The massacres of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia (Polish: rzeź wołyńska, lit. 'Volhynian slaughter'; Ukrainian: Волинська трагедія, romanized: Volynska trahediia, lit. 'Volyn tragedy') were carried out in German-occupied Poland by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) with the support of parts of the local Ukrainian population against the Polish minority in Volhynia, Eastern Galicia, parts of Polesia and Lublin region from 1943 to 1945.[3] The peak of the massacres took place in July and August 1943. The massacres were exceptionally brutal and affected primarily women and children.[4][1] The UPA's actions resulted in about 50,000 to 100,000 deaths.[5][6][7] Other victims of the massacres included several hundred Jews, Russians, Czechs, Georgians, and Ukrainians who were part of Polish families or opposed the UPA and sabotaged the massacres by hiding Polish escapees.[1]
You're quite right, but the West doesn't care about polls that are "manipulated" if the outcome is one the West likes.
A Western Ukraine scoured clean of Ukrainian men, and significantly depopulated overall anyway due to refugees, seems like a fantastic place for a "free and fair election". /sarc
Sounds like future of florida
No idea what you are referencing since Florida is gaining population and economy, not losing it.
When usa breaks apart ala donbass secession, military will be used on states like florida.
If the US breaks apart - not really obvious to me which side(s) the military will be on.
It should be noted that Florida has a lot of military bases unlike, say, Washington DC or New York City.