Quite apart from the fact that faking an audio is now almost trivially easy (I was just listening to Hank Williams sing gansta rap) who is releasing this and why? Is it a bluff or even a double bluff?
Remember, anytime genuine communications are leaked it also reveals that channel has been compromised.
Poroshenko was prevented from leaving Ukraine recently by Zalensky. He probably either faked or leaked the audio to ensure the destruction of his political image.
If AFU manages to create defensive lines all along the front, of the kind the Russian have in Zaporozhzie, then this is going to end up in a stalemate.
Russians hardly make progress even now when defenses are just at the frontlines. Unless there is some kind of breakthrough before these defensive lines are completed, but highly unlikely.
The "battle for Kupiansk" has been fought for almost a year to nought. The "battle for Chasov Yar" won't probably ever begin
Serious ,? no lessons learned from near 2 years of NATO pumping everything they got I to Ukraine.. what will Ukraine stalemate with ? Pregnant women and kids ?
Even people who are "smart" enough to read things other than US corporate media, are still "dumb" (brainwashed) by the same. I know so many people still judge this SMO by territory gains. This is told to them daily by all the usual losers, and even IF they read a variety of sources guess which 1 is their default???
They don't understand attrition, demilitarisation of all ukies armies...people in the West only view wars à la WWI or WWII or Gulf wars (fake wars no real ennemy). Territory gains,not the rest. They don't even know that in the 20 % liberated by RU till now you find 12 trillions of minerals, the rest of Ukraine is poor except wheat and co which are NOT ukrainians assets anymore. The future of the failed state ukraine is: a third world country, no freedom, no free elections, no opposition or a fake one, no free press,who lost 20 millions refugees + kia/mia who will never return(refugees) to risk their life, work for 150 usd a month as they got for some up to 3.000 euros monthly without even working. Only pensionners, wounded of war, oligarchs, politicians, old women, very little kids, lack of men, no army, no money, no EU, no NATO.
Ruskies took Marinka. According to Liveuamap, they have two fingers north of Avdeevka, and have a tentacle north of Bakhmut. They are also expanding north of Piski. In addition, Martyanov claims Ruskies started to form reinforced artillery brigades and he elaborates that this means Russia is planning an offensive. A proper offensive.
Martianov's been a bit late: there are reports those brigades started to deploy. Why not? All the weaponry was ready, personnel had been trained for decades since late USSR.
The time for the Russians to attack is almost here. The UKies won't have time to put up a Christmas tree never mind put up defences such as the Russians have.
We shall see but what better Christmas present to give the Russian people than Kiev and Odesa? The Ukie paper tiger has already blown away in the wind and NATO needs a final kick to blast it into a trillion pieces.
60 year old men, young boys and women can't move that quickly in the muddy season. It took the UA 8 years to fortify the major cities in the UA.
"Russians hardly make progress even now when defenses are just at the frontlines." Suggest you do some homework regarding the defense networks set up by the UA.
how wonderful it is that in the western-nato-ua headquarters sit a big lot of the same "experts" with the same level of judgment about war! praying for quantitative progress is the only thing foreign militaries are trained to do. But progress comes in many forms. No matter, gradually everyone will learn these lessons, even those who had no intention of learning anything.
I will make a prediction, you are going to wear your "username" (frantic) very soon as all your myths and fairy tales about NATO weapons and training all come crashing down. If you were even slightly objective or open minded you would realize how ridiculous your "Russians hardly make progress" statement is
- In the north there has been an accumulation of Russian forces around Kupiansk since past winter, simultaneous to the time when Wagner was battling it out in Bakhmut. This past Spring/Early Summer there was talk of a massive build up and offensive by Russia in this direction. A town 3 km to the North East, Sinkivka was being harshly contested. Guess what? Sinkivka is still in Ukraine's control and nothing has been heard since from this axis, big Russian buildup notwithstanding. Reaching the Oskil river again, Izium? ahaha..
- To the South of Bakhmut, that's where the Ukraine's summer counteroffensive had most success, not around Rabotino in Zaporizhzia! When Wagner declared the city fully occupied, on the 20 May of this year, Russians controlled everything South of the city up to the South-Eastern tip of Ivanivske... now it's the AFU that extends control to the South Western tip of Bakhmut, plus got past Klischivka and Andreevka (or what remains of them) and in certain points even crossed the railway embankment running in the north-south direction from Bakhmut to Donetsk. That's an AFU advance of 3-4 km in a sensible territory that should provide the springboard for Russians to tackle the Kostantinovka-Druzhovka-Kramotorsk-Sloviansk last line of AFU defence in the Donbas.
- The AFU still attacks in Kherson, beyond the river, and defends effectively in Liman and Siversk sectors. Doesn't look to me an army in disarray. Maybe in perspective, if the Western support ends. But if there is still a trickle of shells, ammo, drones and replacement guns for those destroyed still coming in (and it appears this is not in question) + the AFU intelligently digs in and shelter itself, the war will end up being a stalemate even worse than it is now.
Current Russian capabilities seem to be such that do not allow them to launch more than one localised offensive at the time: Bakhmut (W), Kupiansk (L), now Avdeevka. They are building themselves up, sure, but I don't see any sign yet of them possibly achieving a breakthrough in the Donbas and then rush towards to the Dnepr or other kind of unrealistic expectation like that.
This above I reckon would be an objective assessment. Instead, all triumphalism I hear from you true believers I find to be just wishful thinking.
Certainly Russia is not trying to genocide the AFU, not at this pace of a few dozen casualties per day even with the Avdveevka offensive going on. They cannot do WW2 style encirclement battles because they would then have to attack across all the width of the front from Niu York to Marinka, in order to avoid their pincers being attacked on their own Western flanks by the AFU. It's rather clear by now, that Russia has not enough shells or infantry brigades for this kind of annihilation battle, so they need to slog it out for months, and the cauldron created is useful for creating concentric artillery fire, it's not meant for encirclement (which would mean taking entire AFU first rate brigades captive, and effectively destroy it encirclement after encirclement).
Also, don't forget that Russia was supposed to launch some kind of very big winter offensive around this time last year, when the Balakija and Kherson retreats had just happened, and people wouldn't even dream yet of thinking the AFU was amassing troops for an even bigger counteroffensive in Zaporizhia in the summer. The Russians at the time, then, just invested Bakhmut and launched some local attacks in Kupiansk and Ugledar that failed. Nothing I see makes me think this year will be different. The Russians are just waiting for Kiev to crumble politically.
You do not seem to have been following either simplicius, BigSerge, Larry at sonar21 or moonofalabama. All have stated that the western view is ground taken. But, the logical view is men/equipment decimated and THEN take land with next to no opposition. Russia has succeeded in this aim very well.
There was a recent leak on Ukrainian TV where it showed the total killed and MIA on screen as 1,126,000. That's decimated by anyone's reckoning. Shown here:
Yes. We went from Russia is already beaten in 2022 to How come if Russia is ostensibly so tough yet it has not been able to conquer Ukraine, Poland and Germany ? in 2023 from the exact same trolls on X.
Not really, from what I recall Russia has been constantly about to reach the Dnepr since the war started, and the AFU has been on the brink to collapse since 2022
Obviously you have not been trolled on X by a constant barrage of glorious counter attaques. Otherwise you would have firmly believed the ukros squadrons were already rioting the Kremlin. So much for a collapsing army.
It sounds like all the claims that this guy who changes his title from Rolo Slavski to Rurik Skywalker(?????what????) repeats at his blog ad infinitum. He was saying there was going to be a Wagner march on Moscow & overthrow of Putin - combined with a revolt within the Russian army because the soldiers hate the government. Then he had to walk it back.
Then he claimed that the Ukr "counteroffensive" was going to deliver a death blow to Russian forces, & compel the Kremlin & Putin to capitulate to the West by the end of this year (about now). Well, we saw how the counter offensive turned out.
I haven't been reading his blog for months, but the other day I checked & he is now saying the Kremlin will secretly negotiate a surrender to the West/US/NATO by the end of this year - 27 days from now. And I guess this is just one more prediction by the Strelkov fan club which will never materialize & never be acknowledged by them.
Ultimately, a guy who is not Russsian but pretends to be of "Russian descent" using this as his credential for discussing Russia at all is pretty pathetic - & your arguments echo his. Presumably you are one of the club.
Simplicius himself related in this post that Russia and Ukraine are holding backroom talks through their respective chiefs of staff. This isn't Strelkov that says it but S. Hersh who is the FBI's preferred point of leakage for sensitive information when they want to spread it, so he is reliable. Obviously I would say that, if anything, this is a way for Ukraine to ask for mercy, certainly not a "Russian surrender".
I have lost touch with the Doomer camp since the time I basically realised they are grifters. And by the way, you still follow one of them. I don't know why you keep giving these people exposure by citing them by name, you seem to be obsessed. Suffice to say, I briefly commented on a satellite blog in that group once - a blog Simplicius used to comment in too -, and lo and behold, I was drawn into a spurious argumentative back&forth against the author of that blog and finally banned. The very next day, a new podcast featuring this guy that banned me and the character you so much hate appeared on their blogs. So then I realised I had been "punished" by the sect for having left them for good.
That's weird because I know the full identity of the character you refer to. He is not Russian but full-blooded Ukrainian, has tried for ages to get a Russian passport but in vain, and was also kicked out of the country. Factor in the fact that he cannot read a map and has no eye for tactics and strategy, and you have got explained why he keeps making these ridiculous doomer points on the Russian war effort taken from Strelkov or now the Strelkovites.
You watch the new weapons come in - 223mm canon, huge transport planes dropping paratroopers, FABs, thousands of lancets, the waning of Ukrainian anti-aircraft assets, cluster bombs entering the low armor trench warfare, and the lack of heavy missile strikes lately, this could be "shock and awe" winter. What if they just go around the big city fortifications and cut them off from everything. And why not let the people in Kiev feel a little cold and pain? That is where the government is. I'd rather not see the meat grinder continue to blow Ukrainian people up. This is tragic, and it will get even more tragic with shock and awe. The financial side of it tell the total corruption of project Ukraine. Do you get to Soros/ Blackrock through Zelensky, or all those dead soldiers?
Where is this defensive line going to be located? Even when the Germans constructed the Hindenburg Line they had to do it behind the active front, then withdraw to it.
The AFU will have to give up ground, and that is the ONE thing they have tried to avoid throughout the war. Abandoning the Donbass would be a serious and very public black eye.
Russians building up reserves in certain areas forces the AFU to divert reserves to counter them, which means they aren't available for elsewhere. And they do everything under artillery and air bombardment, whether they move or don't move. This will only increase.
This war isn't just about Ukraine. Europe wants out and the US is trying to back away too. Why expend lives for Kupyansk when it will be ceded in the peace negotiations anyway?
Ukie manpower, less weapons, west requests to negociate, far less money, currency going to hyperinflation, moral at the lowest....are you dreaming or on cope?
watch some military analysis channels that aren't run out of Brussels. Look at the territory Russia now holds and it isn't stopping. It is going to take Odessa and all those river ports. What is left of Ukraine will be NATO-less, no security guarantees except those in a peace treaty. And let this be a lesson to all you smaller countries who think that the US giving you weapons and aiming you at your rivals will make you safe. You are all pawns for somebody else.
The euro freakies need to send their spiders into the jar and to fight up the front lines, send Lindsey Graham too. Send cUrsula wonder liar and Nazie pelosie to throw screws. Send Gavin to UKraine, send Josef borrell to fight in hell .
Send annalina to watch her scream. She cares more about Ukraine, she needs to join the other female fighters and she can talk her trash therein.
Let Olaugh Shultz drive a leopard, or a canine. He is a dog.
Let strangela Angela lead that procession. And all them other bitch ass whores I neglected to mention....
Rutte is probably slated to replace Stoltenberg as a new NATO GS, perfect Davos cult member to accelerate demise of NATO and EU. Cannot wait to see that farse unraveling... they are so predictable and more hilarious in the Western Empire Collapse episodes.
That is a great idea , and as a special forces unit send in Bill Gate , George and Alexander Soros , and a banker speculators . They have money, they don't need nobody to wait around until get financed . They can have they own chauffeur , electric battery operated fighting vehicles to save the planet , from unnecessary pollution . Build in golden toilets that would be used extensively upon approaching the front lines . If FSB would be informed about the coming snake storm the Russians very likely run all the way back to Mongolia .
You have to put the hideous Vicky Nudelman at the FRONT of that charge! She can shriek *uck the EU as they all line up behind her to die in her broad wake. And why not invite Mrs. Clinton with all the blood on her hands from No. Africa and beyond!!
that's funny - but the neonazis are mostly in the east Urkaine - my understanding is that west of Kiev nothing is damaged. And Blackrock ( zionist ) is busy because it owns all of it. And George Soros - is he affiliated with Blackrock ? Yeah - good point. I don't know what's going on there but did you see this video ?https://www.bitchute.com/video/DedUlpGZzGxQ/
No, they're actually in Western Ukraine (including Kiev, and especially in Galicia). The further west you go, the more "pure" the Ukrainian blood, and the stronger the sense of Aryan pride.
'[Blinken] gave a green light to the radical Netanyahoo regime's intent to genocide more people in Gaza.' -- b
In 1968, the world was shocked when Czech student Jan Palach self-immolated to protest the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the Warsaw Pact. Now it has happened in the US:
'A protester with a Palestinian flag self-immolated on Friday outside the Israeli consulate in Atlanta, injuring a security guard who attempted to intervene, authorities said.
"We are saddened to learn of the self-immolation at the entrance to the office building," the consul general of Israel to the southeastern US, Anat Sultan-Dadon, told ABC News. "It is tragic to see the hate and incitement toward Israel expressed in such a horrific way. The sanctity of life is our highest value." -- Jerusalem Post
Yeah, right. That's so transparently untrue that I'm surprised Anat Sultan-Dadon managed to say it with a straight face. I imagine that the number of people who actually believe her is in the single digits.
what the hell Simp, these automatic translations to English of tweets and the likes are total rubbish, why do you insist in posting them, just write a recap.
For instance I just went through the twit of mariana beglusova "discrediting the afu command" but I didn't understand a goddamn thing from the translation
Morons and fantasists in Washington and EU still think they can set the terms for the end of the conflict. They will be imposed by Russia to suit Russia and taking account of the very significant loss of Russian life forced by the West.
Hopefully Black Rock will be left with nothing but Banderite territory. That may be exciting for both.
No mention of the incident with Budanov's wife being poisoned? That was certainly curious and it's difficult to know how it fits in with all the political intrigues.
Heavy metal poison…. Occurs over time, a longer period of time? Chelation therapy was recommended to a friend who had this…could be “in the water pipes”; like so many here in the States, in the USA. We have a “issue” with lead based pipes. Or perhaps, the radioactive air particles from the ammunition we (USA) so graciously bestowed upon the good people…? Carry on❤️🐈⬛ Oops, forgot, perhaps the ocean fish from the Japan area as well. The ones from the area around the release of the nuclear waste. Perhaps she was fond of fish? How symbolic…
" I highly doubt these all-powerful consortiums will allow Ukraine to fall into the enemy’s hands..."
They don't have any say in the matter. It's Russia that will decide what happens. All these western "investors" are going to have to take their losses and like it, because Russia isn't going to pay them anything.
Meanwhile, Simplicius' delusions remain: "So it’s really preferable that Russia finish this before 2026 or so, in my eyes. From now until the end of 2025 is my self-professed ‘golden window’ of opportunity."
Oh, please. The Ukrainians "going on the defensive" is not going to extend this war. Bernhard at MoA covered the reasons why today. And Martyanov points out that Russia is now forming "heavy artillery brigades" - units with massive artillery pieces such as the Pion, the 203mm self-propelled cannon. He says there is only one reason for that: a Russian winter offensive intended to devastate whatever lame "defenses" the Ukrainians can throw up in the short time they have left between when Avdiivka - the last major stronghold in Donetsk - falls and the push by the Russians to the Dnieper (and beyond).
Add to that incidents of Ukrainian units surrendering in ever larger units or refusing to move forward on the battlefield, and no amount of "mobilization" of teens, women and old men is going to extend this war much beyond the next several months.
I estimated 3-6 months before the Ukraine military collapses back in August, and I'm sticking to that timetable. Let's see what happens if the Russian actually do launch a winter offensive in January or February.
Richard, I don't recall either of the writers suggesting the war will be over by spring. 'Not extending' is something quite different than almost over. That being said, you could well be correct, we'll see.
The Russkies also need to make an all-out effort to neutralize Ukr's AD too. Perhaps what the stockpile of cruise missiles is for? Then they can fully apply a combined arms for the finish.
That also implies that Russia will just sit back and allow the Ukrainians bring heavy equipment and construction crews to build defensive fortifications.
Thanks you. I realize this Russian decisive win are scaring many people into delusions. They can't imagine this post world. We are so used to western hegemony
What are these 'fortifications' and defenses? Seem to be in the main merely tunnels, trenches. Death traps.
It is different war.
Your fortifications nowadays would be the ability to 'project power' at will to any particular place.
So a 'well fortified' place would fall with the circles of effectiveness of a number of things:
long, medium, short range artillery.
missiles.
drones of all kinds: recon, observe, attack.
ecm measures from drone killing to aircraft killing and via missile killing.
It grows more like a chessboard than ever before in the history of the world of war.
You can now have a square so 'covered', so menaced it would be ludicrous suicide to venture there.
And just like chess it would be to the enemy's advantage for him to pretend he's not aware how well he has that square covered. In order to entice you perhaps to venture in there.
For he can call down the fire on it in an instant today. He doesn't need to truck tanks and troops and munitions, etc. etc..
It can be all blue skies and peaceful one day and your army proceeds cautiously along the broad valley floor meeting the usual resistance and not too bothered by it.
Getting in there. Establishing trench lines. Bringing up munitions and store. Establishing command posts and staging areas. Going well. Enjoying yourself. Like the approach to verbove perhaps, something like that.
All unaware that you're being minutely watched every minute of every day.
And then suddenly: bang. Every agglomeration of men, materials, munitions, command posts, all individually targeted from 5,10, 15, 20, 30 kilometres away. All wiped out in half a day.
It cuts both ways.
That's how you would wipe them out perhaps. But now for you to 'take' that ground in the old fashioned way you have to move your men and materials across it.
And how will you fare if they have it as well covered as you?
So the war has to be one of dissolving 'remote threat' to perhaps coin a phrase and once that is dissolved then you can proceed swiftly to take the land.
Can run swiftly up to the enemy's 'fortifications'. Bunker bust them. TOS them. Bulldoze over them. Then sit your men down to demonstrate this land is yours.
And that's what the men are: flags, messages, signposts. Signs to say 'this is our land now'.
They didn't take it. They won't really keep it. For all their heroics the question is decided 'remotely'.
I would be happy to see the enemy entrenched in his fortifications everywhere as long as I have the 'remote threat' supremacy. I would know where he was and where by god he was going to stay for I wouldn't let him move. My army in reality being my remote threat, my ability to project power as the americans love to say.
Given my supremacy there the battlefield is mine. I'll roam at will and just put the lid on their graves.
I remember when in high school there was a year 10/11 typing class, all girls except for one boy, a mate of mine. When asked why did he elect that subject he said,"cos it's all girls" LOL.
Well, I sense the winds of change. What will be the event to call off the 2024 elections here in the USA? Not the virus, not the Ukraine. Middle East? what am I missing? What will be the event that adds a new dimension to the chaos of civilization change/spiritual revitalization? Cue…Neuland? What is unseen…all fall down…❤️🐈⬛old lady with a virtual cat.
Check out Whitney Webb on Redacted The Basement Crazies are planning to shut down the Internet via cyber attack ! The Banksters and Western Intell agencies with their Corporate clients have to collapse the Financial system before the Dollar dominated financial system collapses on it own So that the Elite can escape responsibility and blame whom ever they want to go to war with , most likely Iran
All this talk of peace or a ceasefire, with Russian elections coming up in a few months, seems quite delusional...The Russian public is not going to buy it, and Putin's popularity would plummet...When Adveeka falls, I expect panic to set in within the upper ranks of Ukrainian politics..and in Russia, Medvedev and friends will be available to fill any vacancies created at the top...
Talk of a ceasefire is completely bunk as the unlikely event would cause the free money to stop, which is not what the grifters in Kiev want - and provoking the local nazis to commit a provocation and stop any agreement is too easy.
The carefully coordinated media campaign we're seeing, I think, is to "scare" the most pro-UA population in the west, legislators, into dispensing more money. I'm sure western MIC will find a way to make that decision easier on them, too.
And now, Kiev has two very nice new ways to absorb the money
(1) construction contracting for work that will be demolished (defenses)
(2) centralized recruitment (ie bribe collection)
So, unfortunately, just like Afghanistan. The lowest common denominator solution that works out for everyone is to keep the war going at a steady pace.
Whether Zelensky gets defenestrated to satisfy the Ukie public for another year of this sadistic con, that's an open question. But doesn't change the situation, IMO
Incredible reporting. I've loved and trusted your work from the first time i became aware of it. I cannot thank you enough. I'm sorry i can't pay you financially at this time. Even sharing with others is lost to me because many people i know could not comprehend, read or understand it. Very sad. The rest I'm also sorry to say could not be bothered. Very, very sad. But here i am trying to change that one small step at a time. With your help.
Remember the 100 monkeys. Once 100 monkeys can comprehend something the rest of the monkeys can comprehend it much more easily and so the ability spreads. If you are one of that hundred initial monkeys you are helping the rest. There is a reason birds can build nests without ever being taught how to do it.
Forgot the /sarc.
They will TRY.
Good point. What would be encouraging is a poll that demonstrated that the public majority opinion was "None of the above".
Quite apart from the fact that faking an audio is now almost trivially easy (I was just listening to Hank Williams sing gansta rap) who is releasing this and why? Is it a bluff or even a double bluff?
Remember, anytime genuine communications are leaked it also reveals that channel has been compromised.
Poroshenko was prevented from leaving Ukraine recently by Zalensky. He probably either faked or leaked the audio to ensure the destruction of his political image.
Medvedev is on record saying that Ukraine can only join NATO minus Kiev.
and so well!
?
Any source or you are just farting into Internet?
https://tass.com/politics/1660993
Thank you.
ha ha, the Bear was kidding. Ukraine can't join NATO at all, and it is going to lose Kiev -- that's what he meant to say.
He doesn't speak for NATO...who will never ever admit Ukraine under any conditions.
If AFU manages to create defensive lines all along the front, of the kind the Russian have in Zaporozhzie, then this is going to end up in a stalemate.
Russians hardly make progress even now when defenses are just at the frontlines. Unless there is some kind of breakthrough before these defensive lines are completed, but highly unlikely.
The "battle for Kupiansk" has been fought for almost a year to nought. The "battle for Chasov Yar" won't probably ever begin
Serious ,? no lessons learned from near 2 years of NATO pumping everything they got I to Ukraine.. what will Ukraine stalemate with ? Pregnant women and kids ?
Even people who are "smart" enough to read things other than US corporate media, are still "dumb" (brainwashed) by the same. I know so many people still judge this SMO by territory gains. This is told to them daily by all the usual losers, and even IF they read a variety of sources guess which 1 is their default???
Yes, perhaps the most often repeated mistake in their perception of this war. Too much TV/movies.
They don't understand attrition, demilitarisation of all ukies armies...people in the West only view wars à la WWI or WWII or Gulf wars (fake wars no real ennemy). Territory gains,not the rest. They don't even know that in the 20 % liberated by RU till now you find 12 trillions of minerals, the rest of Ukraine is poor except wheat and co which are NOT ukrainians assets anymore. The future of the failed state ukraine is: a third world country, no freedom, no free elections, no opposition or a fake one, no free press,who lost 20 millions refugees + kia/mia who will never return(refugees) to risk their life, work for 150 usd a month as they got for some up to 3.000 euros monthly without even working. Only pensionners, wounded of war, oligarchs, politicians, old women, very little kids, lack of men, no army, no money, no EU, no NATO.
Ukrain would only have to slight problems of no new manpower, no new weapons, and little in the way of ammo....
Ruskies took Marinka. According to Liveuamap, they have two fingers north of Avdeevka, and have a tentacle north of Bakhmut. They are also expanding north of Piski. In addition, Martyanov claims Ruskies started to form reinforced artillery brigades and he elaborates that this means Russia is planning an offensive. A proper offensive.
Martianov's been a bit late: there are reports those brigades started to deploy. Why not? All the weaponry was ready, personnel had been trained for decades since late USSR.
They took Marinka! Finally!
The time for the Russians to attack is almost here. The UKies won't have time to put up a Christmas tree never mind put up defences such as the Russians have.
Not cold enough yet and Putin will avoid at all costs big losses before the elections in March, expect April Easter offensive or even May.
We shall see but what better Christmas present to give the Russian people than Kiev and Odesa? The Ukie paper tiger has already blown away in the wind and NATO needs a final kick to blast it into a trillion pieces.
60 year old men, young boys and women can't move that quickly in the muddy season. It took the UA 8 years to fortify the major cities in the UA.
"Russians hardly make progress even now when defenses are just at the frontlines." Suggest you do some homework regarding the defense networks set up by the UA.
how wonderful it is that in the western-nato-ua headquarters sit a big lot of the same "experts" with the same level of judgment about war! praying for quantitative progress is the only thing foreign militaries are trained to do. But progress comes in many forms. No matter, gradually everyone will learn these lessons, even those who had no intention of learning anything.
The Soldier (last video) would make a better job of it than these so-called 'military experts'.
I will make a prediction, you are going to wear your "username" (frantic) very soon as all your myths and fairy tales about NATO weapons and training all come crashing down. If you were even slightly objective or open minded you would realize how ridiculous your "Russians hardly make progress" statement is
but I am objective
If you look at the map https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&ll=49.7394081227248%2C37.74332590374469&z=12
- In the north there has been an accumulation of Russian forces around Kupiansk since past winter, simultaneous to the time when Wagner was battling it out in Bakhmut. This past Spring/Early Summer there was talk of a massive build up and offensive by Russia in this direction. A town 3 km to the North East, Sinkivka was being harshly contested. Guess what? Sinkivka is still in Ukraine's control and nothing has been heard since from this axis, big Russian buildup notwithstanding. Reaching the Oskil river again, Izium? ahaha..
- To the South of Bakhmut, that's where the Ukraine's summer counteroffensive had most success, not around Rabotino in Zaporizhzia! When Wagner declared the city fully occupied, on the 20 May of this year, Russians controlled everything South of the city up to the South-Eastern tip of Ivanivske... now it's the AFU that extends control to the South Western tip of Bakhmut, plus got past Klischivka and Andreevka (or what remains of them) and in certain points even crossed the railway embankment running in the north-south direction from Bakhmut to Donetsk. That's an AFU advance of 3-4 km in a sensible territory that should provide the springboard for Russians to tackle the Kostantinovka-Druzhovka-Kramotorsk-Sloviansk last line of AFU defence in the Donbas.
- The AFU still attacks in Kherson, beyond the river, and defends effectively in Liman and Siversk sectors. Doesn't look to me an army in disarray. Maybe in perspective, if the Western support ends. But if there is still a trickle of shells, ammo, drones and replacement guns for those destroyed still coming in (and it appears this is not in question) + the AFU intelligently digs in and shelter itself, the war will end up being a stalemate even worse than it is now.
Current Russian capabilities seem to be such that do not allow them to launch more than one localised offensive at the time: Bakhmut (W), Kupiansk (L), now Avdeevka. They are building themselves up, sure, but I don't see any sign yet of them possibly achieving a breakthrough in the Donbas and then rush towards to the Dnepr or other kind of unrealistic expectation like that.
This above I reckon would be an objective assessment. Instead, all triumphalism I hear from you true believers I find to be just wishful thinking.
Certainly Russia is not trying to genocide the AFU, not at this pace of a few dozen casualties per day even with the Avdveevka offensive going on. They cannot do WW2 style encirclement battles because they would then have to attack across all the width of the front from Niu York to Marinka, in order to avoid their pincers being attacked on their own Western flanks by the AFU. It's rather clear by now, that Russia has not enough shells or infantry brigades for this kind of annihilation battle, so they need to slog it out for months, and the cauldron created is useful for creating concentric artillery fire, it's not meant for encirclement (which would mean taking entire AFU first rate brigades captive, and effectively destroy it encirclement after encirclement).
Also, don't forget that Russia was supposed to launch some kind of very big winter offensive around this time last year, when the Balakija and Kherson retreats had just happened, and people wouldn't even dream yet of thinking the AFU was amassing troops for an even bigger counteroffensive in Zaporizhia in the summer. The Russians at the time, then, just invested Bakhmut and launched some local attacks in Kupiansk and Ugledar that failed. Nothing I see makes me think this year will be different. The Russians are just waiting for Kiev to crumble politically.
You do not seem to have been following either simplicius, BigSerge, Larry at sonar21 or moonofalabama. All have stated that the western view is ground taken. But, the logical view is men/equipment decimated and THEN take land with next to no opposition. Russia has succeeded in this aim very well.
they are not going to decimate anyone, as I painstakingly detailed in my previous comment
There was a recent leak on Ukrainian TV where it showed the total killed and MIA on screen as 1,126,000. That's decimated by anyone's reckoning. Shown here:
https://en.topwar.ru/231093-ukrainskij-telekanal-v-beguschej-stroke-pokazal-cifry-poter-vsu-s-nachala-rossijskoj-specoperacii.html
Yes. We went from Russia is already beaten in 2022 to How come if Russia is ostensibly so tough yet it has not been able to conquer Ukraine, Poland and Germany ? in 2023 from the exact same trolls on X.
Not really, from what I recall Russia has been constantly about to reach the Dnepr since the war started, and the AFU has been on the brink to collapse since 2022
Permanently stuck in the territory mindset.
I have a very long reply to commenter Jay above, in which I touch upon why the "annihilation mindset" cannot be applied here
Don't feed the troll either strelkovite 6 th column, brainwashed ukie, nato troll in baltics nafo troll factories.
Obviously you have not been trolled on X by a constant barrage of glorious counter attaques. Otherwise you would have firmly believed the ukros squadrons were already rioting the Kremlin. So much for a collapsing army.
make yourself a favour and unsubscribe from X
It sounds like all the claims that this guy who changes his title from Rolo Slavski to Rurik Skywalker(?????what????) repeats at his blog ad infinitum. He was saying there was going to be a Wagner march on Moscow & overthrow of Putin - combined with a revolt within the Russian army because the soldiers hate the government. Then he had to walk it back.
Then he claimed that the Ukr "counteroffensive" was going to deliver a death blow to Russian forces, & compel the Kremlin & Putin to capitulate to the West by the end of this year (about now). Well, we saw how the counter offensive turned out.
I haven't been reading his blog for months, but the other day I checked & he is now saying the Kremlin will secretly negotiate a surrender to the West/US/NATO by the end of this year - 27 days from now. And I guess this is just one more prediction by the Strelkov fan club which will never materialize & never be acknowledged by them.
Ultimately, a guy who is not Russsian but pretends to be of "Russian descent" using this as his credential for discussing Russia at all is pretty pathetic - & your arguments echo his. Presumably you are one of the club.
Simplicius himself related in this post that Russia and Ukraine are holding backroom talks through their respective chiefs of staff. This isn't Strelkov that says it but S. Hersh who is the FBI's preferred point of leakage for sensitive information when they want to spread it, so he is reliable. Obviously I would say that, if anything, this is a way for Ukraine to ask for mercy, certainly not a "Russian surrender".
I have lost touch with the Doomer camp since the time I basically realised they are grifters. And by the way, you still follow one of them. I don't know why you keep giving these people exposure by citing them by name, you seem to be obsessed. Suffice to say, I briefly commented on a satellite blog in that group once - a blog Simplicius used to comment in too -, and lo and behold, I was drawn into a spurious argumentative back&forth against the author of that blog and finally banned. The very next day, a new podcast featuring this guy that banned me and the character you so much hate appeared on their blogs. So then I realised I had been "punished" by the sect for having left them for good.
That's weird because I know the full identity of the character you refer to. He is not Russian but full-blooded Ukrainian, has tried for ages to get a Russian passport but in vain, and was also kicked out of the country. Factor in the fact that he cannot read a map and has no eye for tactics and strategy, and you have got explained why he keeps making these ridiculous doomer points on the Russian war effort taken from Strelkov or now the Strelkovites.
You watch the new weapons come in - 223mm canon, huge transport planes dropping paratroopers, FABs, thousands of lancets, the waning of Ukrainian anti-aircraft assets, cluster bombs entering the low armor trench warfare, and the lack of heavy missile strikes lately, this could be "shock and awe" winter. What if they just go around the big city fortifications and cut them off from everything. And why not let the people in Kiev feel a little cold and pain? That is where the government is. I'd rather not see the meat grinder continue to blow Ukrainian people up. This is tragic, and it will get even more tragic with shock and awe. The financial side of it tell the total corruption of project Ukraine. Do you get to Soros/ Blackrock through Zelensky, or all those dead soldiers?
Wait when did they get a 223 mm cannon?
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/11/ominous-developments-for-west.html
damn...
Where is this defensive line going to be located? Even when the Germans constructed the Hindenburg Line they had to do it behind the active front, then withdraw to it.
The AFU will have to give up ground, and that is the ONE thing they have tried to avoid throughout the war. Abandoning the Donbass would be a serious and very public black eye.
Russians building up reserves in certain areas forces the AFU to divert reserves to counter them, which means they aren't available for elsewhere. And they do everything under artillery and air bombardment, whether they move or don't move. This will only increase.
This war isn't just about Ukraine. Europe wants out and the US is trying to back away too. Why expend lives for Kupyansk when it will be ceded in the peace negotiations anyway?
Ukie manpower, less weapons, west requests to negociate, far less money, currency going to hyperinflation, moral at the lowest....are you dreaming or on cope?
They can just attack from Belarus. Ukraine can't possibly hold such a massive line.
watch some military analysis channels that aren't run out of Brussels. Look at the territory Russia now holds and it isn't stopping. It is going to take Odessa and all those river ports. What is left of Ukraine will be NATO-less, no security guarantees except those in a peace treaty. And let this be a lesson to all you smaller countries who think that the US giving you weapons and aiming you at your rivals will make you safe. You are all pawns for somebody else.
The euro freakies need to send their spiders into the jar and to fight up the front lines, send Lindsey Graham too. Send cUrsula wonder liar and Nazie pelosie to throw screws. Send Gavin to UKraine, send Josef borrell to fight in hell .
Send annalina to watch her scream. She cares more about Ukraine, she needs to join the other female fighters and she can talk her trash therein.
Let Olaugh Shultz drive a leopard, or a canine. He is a dog.
Let strangela Angela lead that procession. And all them other bitch ass whores I neglected to mention....
nice job
macron and his mother
the clown Rutle(?) of the netherlands
the baltic bumpkins
the coke queen of Finland
One like for Rutte, he can lie this war to victory.
Rutte is probably slated to replace Stoltenberg as a new NATO GS, perfect Davos cult member to accelerate demise of NATO and EU. Cannot wait to see that farse unraveling... they are so predictable and more hilarious in the Western Empire Collapse episodes.
Indeed, that's why he pulled the plug on his 'kabinet' as we call it.
Resistance is growing against the globalists, that's why Wilders won the elections.
I hope to see Rutte signing capitulation papers in front of Putin one day. :)
That is a great idea , and as a special forces unit send in Bill Gate , George and Alexander Soros , and a banker speculators . They have money, they don't need nobody to wait around until get financed . They can have they own chauffeur , electric battery operated fighting vehicles to save the planet , from unnecessary pollution . Build in golden toilets that would be used extensively upon approaching the front lines . If FSB would be informed about the coming snake storm the Russians very likely run all the way back to Mongolia .
Give Alex soros a daily golden showers and snow, the yellow snow for that thing with the glasses that looks like a Muppet charachaturr
Victoria "Cookies" Nuland, too. And her vile spouse, Kagan.
The vilest couple, miss piggy and her dildo
Did not heard of vikie for weeks if not months..sick maybe?
Maybe miss piggy be gettin a bacon Botox...she likely getting ready to coup Armenia with uncle Samantha powerless.
The girls gone out dancing to sweet love hangover,, the Dianna Ross disco classic.
Miss piggy nuland spilled the bacon grease all over the floor a the restaurant.
The retirement homes reject them all
BREAKING: ''institute of wars'' has just been rebranded 'institute of defeats'. source S Cia Hersh
You have to put the hideous Vicky Nudelman at the FRONT of that charge! She can shriek *uck the EU as they all line up behind her to die in her broad wake. And why not invite Mrs. Clinton with all the blood on her hands from No. Africa and beyond!!
Iss miss piggy bringing home all that dead bacon and meat?
I heard there were Jews pouring into Ukraine - west Ukraine and that they were being given money and housing - Great Israel 2.0
they and the banderites will have a great time together. lol
They are two sides of the same coin.
Heard the same thing. Hole Jewish area's and villages, barred from anyone entering who is not a jew...
do you remember where you heard that ?
Sure, my friend's daughter in law, who is Ukranian, but currently living in Ireland...
What it was always about. Kill the goys.
I'm sure that's going over really well with the hardcore Neo Nazis who live in Western Ukraine.
that's funny - but the neonazis are mostly in the east Urkaine - my understanding is that west of Kiev nothing is damaged. And Blackrock ( zionist ) is busy because it owns all of it. And George Soros - is he affiliated with Blackrock ? Yeah - good point. I don't know what's going on there but did you see this video ?https://www.bitchute.com/video/DedUlpGZzGxQ/
No, they're actually in Western Ukraine (including Kiev, and especially in Galicia). The further west you go, the more "pure" the Ukrainian blood, and the stronger the sense of Aryan pride.
'[Blinken] gave a green light to the radical Netanyahoo regime's intent to genocide more people in Gaza.' -- b
In 1968, the world was shocked when Czech student Jan Palach self-immolated to protest the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the Warsaw Pact. Now it has happened in the US:
'A protester with a Palestinian flag self-immolated on Friday outside the Israeli consulate in Atlanta, injuring a security guard who attempted to intervene, authorities said.
"We are saddened to learn of the self-immolation at the entrance to the office building," the consul general of Israel to the southeastern US, Anat Sultan-Dadon, told ABC News. "It is tragic to see the hate and incitement toward Israel expressed in such a horrific way. The sanctity of life is our highest value." -- Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-776148
Savor that quote: "The sanctity of life is our highest value," says Israel, as it resumes shelling civilian homes in Gaza.
One essential word was dropped from this sentence. To properly understand it, and make it true, insert 'Jewish' between 'of' and 'life.'
Are we all clear now
Lol the number of people who've heard about Jan Palach outside of Czechoslovakistan is around 4.
At college Jan Palach was a big deal. I was supposed to play his girlfriend in a play by Joan Littlewood.
Glad you got out of there😅
Parents wouldn't let me :)
FJB should be a term to retire in exchange for FGJB.
"The sanctity of life is our highest value."
Yeah, right. That's so transparently untrue that I'm surprised Anat Sultan-Dadon managed to say it with a straight face. I imagine that the number of people who actually believe her is in the single digits.
what the hell Simp, these automatic translations to English of tweets and the likes are total rubbish, why do you insist in posting them, just write a recap.
For instance I just went through the twit of mariana beglusova "discrediting the afu command" but I didn't understand a goddamn thing from the translation
Simply don’t read translations but Simplicius’ interpretation -- also allows for faster reading endlessly long posting... ;-))
yes, lesson learned. However often Simplicius doesn't provide commentary to the odd AI-translated blorb
After so studiously studying simplicious you still reach such an contrary position, obviously I must be missing something in my reading then.
Morons and fantasists in Washington and EU still think they can set the terms for the end of the conflict. They will be imposed by Russia to suit Russia and taking account of the very significant loss of Russian life forced by the West.
Hopefully Black Rock will be left with nothing but Banderite territory. That may be exciting for both.
Agree. We're discussing who will captain the Titanic. But the iceberg (Russia) determines the fate of the ship.
Exactly
No mention of the incident with Budanov's wife being poisoned? That was certainly curious and it's difficult to know how it fits in with all the political intrigues.
Heavy metal poison…. Occurs over time, a longer period of time? Chelation therapy was recommended to a friend who had this…could be “in the water pipes”; like so many here in the States, in the USA. We have a “issue” with lead based pipes. Or perhaps, the radioactive air particles from the ammunition we (USA) so graciously bestowed upon the good people…? Carry on❤️🐈⬛ Oops, forgot, perhaps the ocean fish from the Japan area as well. The ones from the area around the release of the nuclear waste. Perhaps she was fond of fish? How symbolic…
She took drugs and od'd.
Ukraine's an industrial wasteland, heavy metal poisoning's probably not too uncommon.
" I highly doubt these all-powerful consortiums will allow Ukraine to fall into the enemy’s hands..."
They don't have any say in the matter. It's Russia that will decide what happens. All these western "investors" are going to have to take their losses and like it, because Russia isn't going to pay them anything.
Meanwhile, Simplicius' delusions remain: "So it’s really preferable that Russia finish this before 2026 or so, in my eyes. From now until the end of 2025 is my self-professed ‘golden window’ of opportunity."
Oh, please. The Ukrainians "going on the defensive" is not going to extend this war. Bernhard at MoA covered the reasons why today. And Martyanov points out that Russia is now forming "heavy artillery brigades" - units with massive artillery pieces such as the Pion, the 203mm self-propelled cannon. He says there is only one reason for that: a Russian winter offensive intended to devastate whatever lame "defenses" the Ukrainians can throw up in the short time they have left between when Avdiivka - the last major stronghold in Donetsk - falls and the push by the Russians to the Dnieper (and beyond).
Add to that incidents of Ukrainian units surrendering in ever larger units or refusing to move forward on the battlefield, and no amount of "mobilization" of teens, women and old men is going to extend this war much beyond the next several months.
I estimated 3-6 months before the Ukraine military collapses back in August, and I'm sticking to that timetable. Let's see what happens if the Russian actually do launch a winter offensive in January or February.
I hope you're right. A decisive loss under Biden's regime would deal a blow to the entrenched regime not seen in a long.... long time. Perhaps ever.
Will not happen unfortunately as now EU elites are even more neocons than the US (elections in all EU countries in june 24).
Is it not true that current crop of neocons globally derive their power through the US-led regime?
Richard, I don't recall either of the writers suggesting the war will be over by spring. 'Not extending' is something quite different than almost over. That being said, you could well be correct, we'll see.
Simplicius is right but far too optimist for me 2025/26 is too late as even if Trump is elected nothing will really change.mid 24 is the maximum.
The Russians have no choice , they have to press on without giving them a break . Infinitely much cheaper for them , and make it a final round .
The Russkies also need to make an all-out effort to neutralize Ukr's AD too. Perhaps what the stockpile of cruise missiles is for? Then they can fully apply a combined arms for the finish.
That also implies that Russia will just sit back and allow the Ukrainians bring heavy equipment and construction crews to build defensive fortifications.
Thanks you. I realize this Russian decisive win are scaring many people into delusions. They can't imagine this post world. We are so used to western hegemony
From your keyboard to God’s ears
"the mandate to begin building vast fortifications and defenses all throughout Ukraine"
I can't see that happening. They will be destroyed as soon as construction starts.
I don't see that it matters if it does happen.
What are these 'fortifications' and defenses? Seem to be in the main merely tunnels, trenches. Death traps.
It is different war.
Your fortifications nowadays would be the ability to 'project power' at will to any particular place.
So a 'well fortified' place would fall with the circles of effectiveness of a number of things:
long, medium, short range artillery.
missiles.
drones of all kinds: recon, observe, attack.
ecm measures from drone killing to aircraft killing and via missile killing.
It grows more like a chessboard than ever before in the history of the world of war.
You can now have a square so 'covered', so menaced it would be ludicrous suicide to venture there.
And just like chess it would be to the enemy's advantage for him to pretend he's not aware how well he has that square covered. In order to entice you perhaps to venture in there.
For he can call down the fire on it in an instant today. He doesn't need to truck tanks and troops and munitions, etc. etc..
It can be all blue skies and peaceful one day and your army proceeds cautiously along the broad valley floor meeting the usual resistance and not too bothered by it.
Getting in there. Establishing trench lines. Bringing up munitions and store. Establishing command posts and staging areas. Going well. Enjoying yourself. Like the approach to verbove perhaps, something like that.
All unaware that you're being minutely watched every minute of every day.
And then suddenly: bang. Every agglomeration of men, materials, munitions, command posts, all individually targeted from 5,10, 15, 20, 30 kilometres away. All wiped out in half a day.
It cuts both ways.
That's how you would wipe them out perhaps. But now for you to 'take' that ground in the old fashioned way you have to move your men and materials across it.
And how will you fare if they have it as well covered as you?
So the war has to be one of dissolving 'remote threat' to perhaps coin a phrase and once that is dissolved then you can proceed swiftly to take the land.
Can run swiftly up to the enemy's 'fortifications'. Bunker bust them. TOS them. Bulldoze over them. Then sit your men down to demonstrate this land is yours.
And that's what the men are: flags, messages, signposts. Signs to say 'this is our land now'.
They didn't take it. They won't really keep it. For all their heroics the question is decided 'remotely'.
I would be happy to see the enemy entrenched in his fortifications everywhere as long as I have the 'remote threat' supremacy. I would know where he was and where by god he was going to stay for I wouldn't let him move. My army in reality being my remote threat, my ability to project power as the americans love to say.
Given my supremacy there the battlefield is mine. I'll roam at will and just put the lid on their graves.
What I said but with many more words LOL
yeah, I got a bit carried away there... sort of 'stream of consciousness..'
It's all good.
Soooooo accurate and quite succinct, not my idea of stream of consciousness. Too on the mark for that. Please contribute again!!!!
Thank you, rakyat. that was nice to hear. :)
Well it’s good typing practice...
'typing'. the word reminds me of the past, pre - computer. do you know it used to be considered girly and unmanly for a guy to type?
Ah right..the Clerical Arts were for the women folk….well I have developed a mean Advanced Hunt and Peck!!
I remember when in high school there was a year 10/11 typing class, all girls except for one boy, a mate of mine. When asked why did he elect that subject he said,"cos it's all girls" LOL.
Not to mention Russia has the most advanced thermobaric warheads that will just kill everyone inside a tunnel.
Do they have the gear to build such a line?
Do they have the time and personal?
Will Russia allow it?
What if funding gets cut, and we are hearing noises to that effect...?
Well, I sense the winds of change. What will be the event to call off the 2024 elections here in the USA? Not the virus, not the Ukraine. Middle East? what am I missing? What will be the event that adds a new dimension to the chaos of civilization change/spiritual revitalization? Cue…Neuland? What is unseen…all fall down…❤️🐈⬛old lady with a virtual cat.
Check out Whitney Webb on Redacted The Basement Crazies are planning to shut down the Internet via cyber attack ! The Banksters and Western Intell agencies with their Corporate clients have to collapse the Financial system before the Dollar dominated financial system collapses on it own So that the Elite can escape responsibility and blame whom ever they want to go to war with , most likely Iran
Thank you💙🇷🇺❤️
Simp reckons its going to be AI.
All this talk of peace or a ceasefire, with Russian elections coming up in a few months, seems quite delusional...The Russian public is not going to buy it, and Putin's popularity would plummet...When Adveeka falls, I expect panic to set in within the upper ranks of Ukrainian politics..and in Russia, Medvedev and friends will be available to fill any vacancies created at the top...
Talk of a ceasefire is completely bunk as the unlikely event would cause the free money to stop, which is not what the grifters in Kiev want - and provoking the local nazis to commit a provocation and stop any agreement is too easy.
The carefully coordinated media campaign we're seeing, I think, is to "scare" the most pro-UA population in the west, legislators, into dispensing more money. I'm sure western MIC will find a way to make that decision easier on them, too.
And now, Kiev has two very nice new ways to absorb the money
(1) construction contracting for work that will be demolished (defenses)
(2) centralized recruitment (ie bribe collection)
So, unfortunately, just like Afghanistan. The lowest common denominator solution that works out for everyone is to keep the war going at a steady pace.
Whether Zelensky gets defenestrated to satisfy the Ukie public for another year of this sadistic con, that's an open question. But doesn't change the situation, IMO
Medvedev is not very popular in Russia because he is known as the most ideological pro-American liberal. He even has a nickname - iPhone!
Incredible reporting. I've loved and trusted your work from the first time i became aware of it. I cannot thank you enough. I'm sorry i can't pay you financially at this time. Even sharing with others is lost to me because many people i know could not comprehend, read or understand it. Very sad. The rest I'm also sorry to say could not be bothered. Very, very sad. But here i am trying to change that one small step at a time. With your help.
Remember the 100 monkeys. Once 100 monkeys can comprehend something the rest of the monkeys can comprehend it much more easily and so the ability spreads. If you are one of that hundred initial monkeys you are helping the rest. There is a reason birds can build nests without ever being taught how to do it.