A clearer picture of the outlook for the next term of the war is starting to resolve before us. We’ve long reported rumors that the issue of offense vs. defense had become a breaking point between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, and now Zelensky has finally bitten the bullet and announced a full change of posture to a defensive one, with the mandate to begin building vast fortifications and defenses all throughout Ukraine:
Quite apart from the fact that faking an audio is now almost trivially easy (I was just listening to Hank Williams sing gansta rap) who is releasing this and why? Is it a bluff or even a double bluff?
Remember, anytime genuine communications are leaked it also reveals that channel has been compromised.
If AFU manages to create defensive lines all along the front, of the kind the Russian have in Zaporozhzie, then this is going to end up in a stalemate.
Russians hardly make progress even now when defenses are just at the frontlines. Unless there is some kind of breakthrough before these defensive lines are completed, but highly unlikely.
The "battle for Kupiansk" has been fought for almost a year to nought. The "battle for Chasov Yar" won't probably ever begin
The euro freakies need to send their spiders into the jar and to fight up the front lines, send Lindsey Graham too. Send cUrsula wonder liar and Nazie pelosie to throw screws. Send Gavin to UKraine, send Josef borrell to fight in hell .
Send annalina to watch her scream. She cares more about Ukraine, she needs to join the other female fighters and she can talk her trash therein.
Let Olaugh Shultz drive a leopard, or a canine. He is a dog.
Let strangela Angela lead that procession. And all them other bitch ass whores I neglected to mention....
'[Blinken] gave a green light to the radical Netanyahoo regime's intent to genocide more people in Gaza.' -- b
In 1968, the world was shocked when Czech student Jan Palach self-immolated to protest the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the Warsaw Pact. Now it has happened in the US:
'A protester with a Palestinian flag self-immolated on Friday outside the Israeli consulate in Atlanta, injuring a security guard who attempted to intervene, authorities said.
"We are saddened to learn of the self-immolation at the entrance to the office building," the consul general of Israel to the southeastern US, Anat Sultan-Dadon, told ABC News. "It is tragic to see the hate and incitement toward Israel expressed in such a horrific way. The sanctity of life is our highest value." -- Jerusalem Post
what the hell Simp, these automatic translations to English of tweets and the likes are total rubbish, why do you insist in posting them, just write a recap.
For instance I just went through the twit of mariana beglusova "discrediting the afu command" but I didn't understand a goddamn thing from the translation
Morons and fantasists in Washington and EU still think they can set the terms for the end of the conflict. They will be imposed by Russia to suit Russia and taking account of the very significant loss of Russian life forced by the West.
Hopefully Black Rock will be left with nothing but Banderite territory. That may be exciting for both.
No mention of the incident with Budanov's wife being poisoned? That was certainly curious and it's difficult to know how it fits in with all the political intrigues.
" I highly doubt these all-powerful consortiums will allow Ukraine to fall into the enemy’s hands..."
They don't have any say in the matter. It's Russia that will decide what happens. All these western "investors" are going to have to take their losses and like it, because Russia isn't going to pay them anything.
Meanwhile, Simplicius' delusions remain: "So it’s really preferable that Russia finish this before 2026 or so, in my eyes. From now until the end of 2025 is my self-professed ‘golden window’ of opportunity."
Oh, please. The Ukrainians "going on the defensive" is not going to extend this war. Bernhard at MoA covered the reasons why today. And Martyanov points out that Russia is now forming "heavy artillery brigades" - units with massive artillery pieces such as the Pion, the 203mm self-propelled cannon. He says there is only one reason for that: a Russian winter offensive intended to devastate whatever lame "defenses" the Ukrainians can throw up in the short time they have left between when Avdiivka - the last major stronghold in Donetsk - falls and the push by the Russians to the Dnieper (and beyond).
Add to that incidents of Ukrainian units surrendering in ever larger units or refusing to move forward on the battlefield, and no amount of "mobilization" of teens, women and old men is going to extend this war much beyond the next several months.
I estimated 3-6 months before the Ukraine military collapses back in August, and I'm sticking to that timetable. Let's see what happens if the Russian actually do launch a winter offensive in January or February.
Well, I sense the winds of change. What will be the event to call off the 2024 elections here in the USA? Not the virus, not the Ukraine. Middle East? what am I missing? What will be the event that adds a new dimension to the chaos of civilization change/spiritual revitalization? Cue…Neuland? What is unseen…all fall down…❤️🐈⬛old lady with a virtual cat.
All this talk of peace or a ceasefire, with Russian elections coming up in a few months, seems quite delusional...The Russian public is not going to buy it, and Putin's popularity would plummet...When Adveeka falls, I expect panic to set in within the upper ranks of Ukrainian politics..and in Russia, Medvedev and friends will be available to fill any vacancies created at the top...
Incredible reporting. I've loved and trusted your work from the first time i became aware of it. I cannot thank you enough. I'm sorry i can't pay you financially at this time. Even sharing with others is lost to me because many people i know could not comprehend, read or understand it. Very sad. The rest I'm also sorry to say could not be bothered. Very, very sad. But here i am trying to change that one small step at a time. With your help.
"But the problem is the EU is in fact slowly losing support, rather than gaining it for this adventure, with the steady entree of a new class of skeptics like Wilders and Fico.
However, I do think that Russia will have a “golden moment” that lasts two years or so, but then if Ukraine were to survive past 2025 into 2026, the tide may start to turn.?"
Hi Simplicius,
My pardon, but I found this passage confusing with the 'However' clause, as if the golden moment element contradicted the previous two paragraphs. After reading the rest of the piece, I see you meant you envision Russia having a two-year window of opportunity before additional NATO support and war weariness pushes them to negotiations. That certainly makes sense, but where is the manpower to come from? The cupboard appears to be going dry now, and it's not like they have a ton of youth coming into fighting age as Germany did at the end?
Zelensky was won over by Boris promise that he would be a modern Churchill, defiant and leading his country to victory. I remember the British media articles endlessly comparing him.
Instead, his fate appears to trend towards the other national leader of that era, who was also defiant till the last, not that it did him any good
Quite apart from the fact that faking an audio is now almost trivially easy (I was just listening to Hank Williams sing gansta rap) who is releasing this and why? Is it a bluff or even a double bluff?
Remember, anytime genuine communications are leaked it also reveals that channel has been compromised.
Medvedev is on record saying that Ukraine can only join NATO minus Kiev.
If AFU manages to create defensive lines all along the front, of the kind the Russian have in Zaporozhzie, then this is going to end up in a stalemate.
Russians hardly make progress even now when defenses are just at the frontlines. Unless there is some kind of breakthrough before these defensive lines are completed, but highly unlikely.
The "battle for Kupiansk" has been fought for almost a year to nought. The "battle for Chasov Yar" won't probably ever begin
The euro freakies need to send their spiders into the jar and to fight up the front lines, send Lindsey Graham too. Send cUrsula wonder liar and Nazie pelosie to throw screws. Send Gavin to UKraine, send Josef borrell to fight in hell .
Send annalina to watch her scream. She cares more about Ukraine, she needs to join the other female fighters and she can talk her trash therein.
Let Olaugh Shultz drive a leopard, or a canine. He is a dog.
Let strangela Angela lead that procession. And all them other bitch ass whores I neglected to mention....
I heard there were Jews pouring into Ukraine - west Ukraine and that they were being given money and housing - Great Israel 2.0
'[Blinken] gave a green light to the radical Netanyahoo regime's intent to genocide more people in Gaza.' -- b
In 1968, the world was shocked when Czech student Jan Palach self-immolated to protest the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the Warsaw Pact. Now it has happened in the US:
'A protester with a Palestinian flag self-immolated on Friday outside the Israeli consulate in Atlanta, injuring a security guard who attempted to intervene, authorities said.
"We are saddened to learn of the self-immolation at the entrance to the office building," the consul general of Israel to the southeastern US, Anat Sultan-Dadon, told ABC News. "It is tragic to see the hate and incitement toward Israel expressed in such a horrific way. The sanctity of life is our highest value." -- Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-776148
Savor that quote: "The sanctity of life is our highest value," says Israel, as it resumes shelling civilian homes in Gaza.
One essential word was dropped from this sentence. To properly understand it, and make it true, insert 'Jewish' between 'of' and 'life.'
Are we all clear now
what the hell Simp, these automatic translations to English of tweets and the likes are total rubbish, why do you insist in posting them, just write a recap.
For instance I just went through the twit of mariana beglusova "discrediting the afu command" but I didn't understand a goddamn thing from the translation
Morons and fantasists in Washington and EU still think they can set the terms for the end of the conflict. They will be imposed by Russia to suit Russia and taking account of the very significant loss of Russian life forced by the West.
Hopefully Black Rock will be left with nothing but Banderite territory. That may be exciting for both.
No mention of the incident with Budanov's wife being poisoned? That was certainly curious and it's difficult to know how it fits in with all the political intrigues.
" I highly doubt these all-powerful consortiums will allow Ukraine to fall into the enemy’s hands..."
They don't have any say in the matter. It's Russia that will decide what happens. All these western "investors" are going to have to take their losses and like it, because Russia isn't going to pay them anything.
Meanwhile, Simplicius' delusions remain: "So it’s really preferable that Russia finish this before 2026 or so, in my eyes. From now until the end of 2025 is my self-professed ‘golden window’ of opportunity."
Oh, please. The Ukrainians "going on the defensive" is not going to extend this war. Bernhard at MoA covered the reasons why today. And Martyanov points out that Russia is now forming "heavy artillery brigades" - units with massive artillery pieces such as the Pion, the 203mm self-propelled cannon. He says there is only one reason for that: a Russian winter offensive intended to devastate whatever lame "defenses" the Ukrainians can throw up in the short time they have left between when Avdiivka - the last major stronghold in Donetsk - falls and the push by the Russians to the Dnieper (and beyond).
Add to that incidents of Ukrainian units surrendering in ever larger units or refusing to move forward on the battlefield, and no amount of "mobilization" of teens, women and old men is going to extend this war much beyond the next several months.
I estimated 3-6 months before the Ukraine military collapses back in August, and I'm sticking to that timetable. Let's see what happens if the Russian actually do launch a winter offensive in January or February.
"the mandate to begin building vast fortifications and defenses all throughout Ukraine"
I can't see that happening. They will be destroyed as soon as construction starts.
Well, I sense the winds of change. What will be the event to call off the 2024 elections here in the USA? Not the virus, not the Ukraine. Middle East? what am I missing? What will be the event that adds a new dimension to the chaos of civilization change/spiritual revitalization? Cue…Neuland? What is unseen…all fall down…❤️🐈⬛old lady with a virtual cat.
All this talk of peace or a ceasefire, with Russian elections coming up in a few months, seems quite delusional...The Russian public is not going to buy it, and Putin's popularity would plummet...When Adveeka falls, I expect panic to set in within the upper ranks of Ukrainian politics..and in Russia, Medvedev and friends will be available to fill any vacancies created at the top...
Incredible reporting. I've loved and trusted your work from the first time i became aware of it. I cannot thank you enough. I'm sorry i can't pay you financially at this time. Even sharing with others is lost to me because many people i know could not comprehend, read or understand it. Very sad. The rest I'm also sorry to say could not be bothered. Very, very sad. But here i am trying to change that one small step at a time. With your help.
"But the problem is the EU is in fact slowly losing support, rather than gaining it for this adventure, with the steady entree of a new class of skeptics like Wilders and Fico.
However, I do think that Russia will have a “golden moment” that lasts two years or so, but then if Ukraine were to survive past 2025 into 2026, the tide may start to turn.?"
Hi Simplicius,
My pardon, but I found this passage confusing with the 'However' clause, as if the golden moment element contradicted the previous two paragraphs. After reading the rest of the piece, I see you meant you envision Russia having a two-year window of opportunity before additional NATO support and war weariness pushes them to negotiations. That certainly makes sense, but where is the manpower to come from? The cupboard appears to be going dry now, and it's not like they have a ton of youth coming into fighting age as Germany did at the end?
Zelensky was won over by Boris promise that he would be a modern Churchill, defiant and leading his country to victory. I remember the British media articles endlessly comparing him.
Instead, his fate appears to trend towards the other national leader of that era, who was also defiant till the last, not that it did him any good