The USA will soon expend it's munition arsenal (the last time in March-April they had stock for 6 weeks). Replacement production is minimal and would need $1.5 trl investment within the next 4 years. So Trump is fast disarming it's army.
Boots on ground, but not American one, but from some NATO countries, in 2 months they might be ready for deployment to Middle East. Pretext for mass mobilisation would be street riots and false flag terrorist attacks on underground metro systems.
The next option left to USA/Israel on Iran is escalation to nukes, including dirty ones and attacking nuclear power stations and nuclear laboratories. That caused by Israels false flag on it's own nuclear facilities. They might also nuke Yemen, and even Somalia, to open the Red Sea. And Trump trying to charge 20% for traffic passing Suez Canal.
And experimental weapons, which Trump is mentioning from time to time since 2019, now known yet publicly, will be used. Probably related to neutron bomb, killing all life, but minimal physical blast and radiation. That ones are left for East Asia, closer to Chinese border, and on China itself.
East Asia? China? tRump has expended half of his munitions on Iran and gotten how far? What do you think would happen if he challenged China? Nukes aren't just available to the USA exclusively, and tangling with China would be his costliest, biggest and absolutely last mistake
I suspect backchannels are being heavily used these days between Russia, China and USrael, warning USrael against just that. Iran is a critical asset to Russia and China - neither can afford to lose Iran.
Agreed. Indeed, if I were Iran, I think I might consider bombing israel every time the US bombs Iran, further degrading israel and ultimately threatening its existence - the US has too much invested in israel to abandon it - in fact, the zionists in America would never allow that to happen. And if the US starts bombing Iranian power plants, then Iran should immediately turn on israel's power plants.
Hitting israel is the bast way to inflict pain on the US in that region.
I have read that there is large movements of planes and munitions heading into Israel from Europe . More and more fuel on the fire . The middle east is going to get toasted.
The most effective weapon in that category is an EMP weapon. Kills all electronics that are not heavily shielded. Electrical grids and infrastructure get cooked. Much of the communications will be destroyed too. Neutron weapons have a smaller blast and kill range and are a tactical nuke. Israel is believed to have a large stock of these and that increases the possibility of their being used.
Although neutron bombs have a mysterious aura about them, they only have a killing range of less than 1500 meters - I suspect that it would take an immense number of these to make a significant impact in war, and the fact that they are equated to nukes, makes the attacker subject to a nuclear response. Practically, they would only be used in specific conditions of war.
It's a secret, experimental, new quality weapon, related to nuclear or rather neutron bombs, but much more powerful from known neutron bombs. Comparable in killing effect to Tsar Bomba, which was 55 megatons, but many times over.
It was likely already tested during Trump's first presidency. Classified documents about nuclear weapons were confiscated at Mar a Lago.
"But I have built a nucle-, a weap-, I have built a weapons system, weapons system, that nobody's ever had in this country before," Trump said.
"We have stuff that you haven't even seen or heard about. We have stuff that Putin and Xi have never heard about before. There's nobody. What we have is incredible."
Yeah, I put this in the same category as his statement that he has weapons that bend time and space, bend them like nobody has ever bent them before, bending them like Beckham! Next we will be hearing about his alliances with the aliens at the South Pole bringing them into the Coalition of the Willing.
These weapons, if they really exist, have to be nuclear in essence, so are not likely to be used as they would result in a massive nuclear response. And if they are non-nuclear (extremely unlikely), they are probably prohibitively expensive and will have only limited use - if they really work at all. The US does not have a good track record at developing affordable weapons that actually work on the battlefield.
Many times, I have allowed others to start the conversation, so nobody whines about my making the first comment. But, today, I assert my domination like Billy, the kid, with a gun.
Instead of focusing on Trump's "madness" and "delusional" plans and statements, why don't you look at what the US is actually doing, which is killing people and degrading Iran's power. He'd probably like to grab their oil - it is Trump after all - but the plan is to neutralize Iran as a great power. That process is underway. Whether Iran can make it stop is questionable. Doubtful even.
The optics as told by the US is one thing and reality is totally another. I think your perception is clouded by mainstream media because trump has admitted to not knowing what Iran's capabilities are and Iran has been preparing for this for decades where the US is working on tRump impulsivity.
I never watch mainstream media. And the alt media is pretty piss poor too. You might need to check your own perception. The empire does not work on "impulsivity."
The empire may not but tRump certainly does. How many truths has he told? None. How many times has the war been on again off again to manipulate the stock market so he could profit from the fluctuations? I don't need to check anything because the receipts are there if you care to look.
Iran's Trump card is their 6000+ MRBMs and 80,000 drones. If "the empire" puts them into the Stone Age, they'll take out Israel's desalinization plants and those of the gulf states while still maintaining hold of the Hormuz and probably Bab Al-Mandeb Strait. Definitely going to be a full blown Middle East war at that point and possibly a third world war. I don't see Russia and China allowing Iran to fall without some level of say in the matter as well. However, they might just let us collapse our own empire in doing so and scoop up the remains. At least China will.
A term they use for US treatment of Russia via Ukraine is "salami slicing," meaning just continuous small steps over the various red lines which don't draw a full response. I think that's what they have in mind for Iran, too - just short of something triggering widespread destruction of desalinization plants. I could be wrong about that, though. And the strategy should be wrong both in Iran and Russia, but it's worked so far.
Iraq is not Iran and to compare one to the other is to compare chalk to cheese. Iran came back from a regime change that broke Iraq, came back stronger, more determined and far better prepared. Persia is so much older than anything around it and has withstood armies far more powerful than the tRump clown show.
I fought in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. We could sit safely on our bases with only suicide car bomb infiltration attacks and indirect fire munitions to worry about. Iran? You can't get an amphibious or carrier within 300 Km of the country. Unless we start WW3 with a nuke, you will need a ground invasion. Any troop carrier coming within anti-ship missile range is going to be sent to Davy Jones's locker with 600 Americans KIA
Have you ever been there? I worked in customs clearance in Basra, Iraq, from August 1985 to April 1988. Is winning a war determined solely by numbers?
At the time, the living conditions and mental state of the local Iraqi population were so chaotic that Saddam Hussein had no choice but to invade Kuwait.
Nah Feral that's bullshit. Iran was a different situation. Much more like Cuba or Venezuela than Iraq who had already had their asses kicked in real kinetic war lasting many years with Iran. And with western help (although the perfidious gringos "helped" both sides as needed, politically).
To Madeleine Albright: "Was it worth it?"
Albright: "Yes."
Iraq was virtually destroyed by the first "Gulf War" (highway of death and total destruction of infrastructure MALreported by western media) and then the follow-on post-USSR collapse sanctions/blockade/sabotage.
That's not how the Gulf state and other Arab satrapies work. In most cases, you've got a highly unpopular minority ruling over the majority with US military, surveillance and police apparatus assistance (money, weapons, technology, propaganda) suppressing the popular will of the actual majority in these respective countries. If that wasn't the case, they'd have combined to bomb Tel Aviv years ago. It has very little to do with the Arab public and almost everything to do with bought off elites ruling those countries often with an iron fist, and doing the bidding of the US and "Israel."
What you say is true, but it does not negate what I said, other than your claim that if the majority were ruling they would have combined. There's no real evidence of that, and the new rulers would be as susceptible to corruption as the old ones were. Plus, if there were revolutions they'd be neutralized for many years just from that. Israel's first action after the fall of Assad was to destroy all of Syria's weapons. That's what Iran is doing to the other Gulf states.
We have evidence of it from the 1950s and 1960s. Before those countries fell under the rule of propped up, bought off elites - which in some cases simply means a new generation of leaders decided that anti-Zionism and support for their fellow Muslims/Arabs was less important than a posh, modernized lifestyle - there were several attempts and ongoing plans to attack and disband the Zionist Entity.
Iran is primarily destroying the US's weapons that happen to be stationed in those countries since their elites stupidly fell for the ruse that US bases there would protect them from _____ (insert the manufactured villain du jour, Iraq and now Iran). I highly doubt that Iran is the primary entity attacking desalination or electricity generation mainly geared to civilian use, either. That to me sounds a lot more like the false flag MO of USrael. Yes, Iran is degrading SOME of that stuff with a military use, and likely responding tit-for-tat when its civilian infrastructure is targeted, but nowhere near as much as the narrative masters would have us believe.
And concurrent to the buy-off/prop-up campaigns the US and "Israel" (with former EU colonial powers' help) there have been massive psyop operations being run by "western intelligence" services using easily bought off or blackmailed citizens. So Iran is actually weakening the ruling minorities in most of those places. Where you do have a good point is that once those majorities rise up and take over, they won't be able to get enough weapons to fight off the collective waste and capitalist or "Israeli" expansionism.
Very important point! The US is using Israel to bring in new forces and for sure to refit and repair the existing forces. The civilian airport Ben Gurion is so overfilled with US warplanes, that the normal civilian flights have to be reduced. But Israel ist "neutral" and therefore Irans hands are not free. But Israel is destroying Hezbolla.
Perhaps one reason Iran is targeting the Gulf states is that they are a vital component of the petro-dollar iarchitecture, perhaps Iran is illustrating what a bad deal the GCC states have and encouraging them to start hedging. Also, given Israel has nukes it would make sense if Iran is exercising some restraint.
I agree, too much emphasis on what Trump says, what Trump writes, what Trump knows or doesn't know. What Trump says on TV. Trump is a showman and a front man. He doesn't know anything and he isn't making any military decisions. Why do so many analysts in alt-media continue to act as if Trump is making all the decisions? He isn't planning anything militarily, and he isn't making any strategic decisions on his own.
It is the Office of the President that is making the decisions, as required by the US Constitution. Trump just happens to be the chump occupying that office today and speaks on behalf of the Office. In actuality and on a practical basis, the Office is controlled by outside interests. And as the zionists weave themselves further and deeper into the American ruling fabric, you can guess who those "outside interests" are.
But you're missing the point that short of nukes, dirty bombs or some other wunderweeeponz, the US simply cannot do that alone. That is why Trump and Co. whine so frequently to try to get other nations, including NATO partners, to join up. Why? Because as stated above, the US simply doesn't have, nor can it manufacture, sufficient conventional munitions to keep this up. This should be evidenced to any thinking and observant person by the fact that they have switched to primarily civilian or dual-use "targets" like cancer hospitals, train stations, vehicle bridges, desalination plants and electricity generation. It's a last hurrah at least in terms of "standard" warfare.
That's where the dirty tricks come in. Actual nuclear missiles/bombs? Unlikely. Perhaps a "suitcase" nuke in Tehran, helped by whatever Mossad/CIA assets remain in the country. Or "Israel" (or the US) staging a major false flag designed to provoke other nations to commit their military power to topple the "terror regime" in Iran once and for all. Because right now, on both an absolute and relative scale, in a before-vs-after comparison, the US (meaning most US civilians and military members) is losing this war of choice militarily and economically.
TL/DR version - IF in fact the US (and "Israel") do succeed in "neutralizing" Iran and/or stealing its oil - means very different than the standard military ones we've seen thus far will be needed. They've tried multiple coups, they've hit civilian targets and murdered numerous Iranian leaders, and they've claimed to have severely depleted Iran's ability to strike back or cause damage. None of that bears out in terms of degrading/toppling Iran's capabilities in reality, so something "different" is going to be needed.
You're not thinking in long enough terms. This is not Trump's will o the wisp, it's the empire's business. Think of Syria. It wasn't munitions that finally brought it down, it was economic strangulation and dirty tricks, various military escapades, funding every dissident, bribing everyone they could. All of those things remain options for the US. Time is the something different that's needed, and the US has it despite what people here love to think.
And they will get help from their various vassals.
Russia is facing the same danger. Unlike Iran, Russia COULD hit back, but it doesn't.
That only strengthens my points. But you are correct about the long game, and this is one that's been running since before 1979. That's the problem here. They've tried over and over to topple the Iranian government and religious leadership so that they could rape and pillage Iran for its resources, for its geostrategically important location, and because Iran represents the last major impediment to regional Zionist expansion. None of it has worked.
And you're exactly right about Syria. It wasn't necessarily munitions that ENDED UP forcing Assad to flee, although that was how it started. But Iran isn't Syria for too many reasons to name. They've been at this on and off (mostly on) since the 1950s, and have succeeded only for a short period (thinking in the long term) when the Shah was installed and propped up.
Further, Russia is a vastly different situation, abeit one which the "west" views through the same lens. For one thing, I think Russia is actually in more danger given the recent (again in long term thinking) manufactured and engrained-then-inflamed Russophobia gripping the EU. But even then, they have failed to topple Putin's government or weaken Russia again - in large part due to the civilizational memory of the Russian people, which is one aspect they share with Iran. Both know that the US and "west" are not agreement capable.
But sure, if we're talking the REALLY long game, as in a century or more starting within the past year's timeframe, who knows what will happen. Big money does have a great overall win rate. The bankers lose a military war and they just shift forms and rebrand. That's globo-cap acting like The Borg in Star Trek. They want everyone to assimilate, and with ever increasing wealth concentration and a corresponding/concurrent push toward total surveillance and police states which is of course what they want for Iran and Russia so long as both are open to exploitation and extraction - the window in which to push back seems to be shrinking. Just looking at the arc of modern history, I wouldn't bet against it EVENTUALLY happening in either place. It's just not going to be within either of our lifetimes, let alone as the result of the two respective wars being waged on them.
The Russian civilizational memory should include that many states of the USSR were stripped away from them (by the dissolution) and are now hostile to Russia and in many cases western puppets. My bet is that within fifteen years there will be more of that unless some more vigorous leader replaces Putin.
Not making any bets about Iran, but I don't like their chances and don't think we're talking about a long time, either. The US goal there is simply to neutralize Iran as a regional power, though. Maybe US action should be regarded as "mowing the grass," to use Israel's demonic language, rather than an attempt to topple leadership. I don't think they care about the leadership much.
It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive. Yes, of course USrael want to "mow the grass" and weaken Iran's role as a regional power, but they also want to overthrow the government and hope it gets replaced by one that will bend the knee to western private finance and Zionist expansionism. That's exactly what they hoped would happen starting with the ginned up "protests" (read violent riots carried out mostly by Mossad/CIA assets which started as legitimate economy based demonstrations) and then again when they murdered as many Iranian leaders as they could, who were to USRael's dismay, replaced by harder-line anti-USrael people.
While I don't want to get into the Russia/Putin thing in depth, I do agree that if this Ukraine thing runs on for too much longer at the current scale, Russia will need a much harder line leader than Putin if they want to preserve their sovereignty and do their own thing economically outside of the current western-dominated financial system and "rules based order."
I would "like" this comment if the system would let me. I'm sure they'd be happy to replace Iranian government with puppets, and I'm sure they'll keep trying. The main strategic interest is to neutralize them as a power, though.
In the end logistics will determine the outcome . We are now looking at declining supplies of many resources due to our extraction of the easy sources . Both energy and many minerals and metals are getting more expensive to mine and refine (both in money and energy) and USA and the west is heavily invested in expensive energy and ever increasing debt. This latest gamble is probably a "hail mary" for Trump as the USA needs copious amounts of diesel and heavy fuels to run its agriculture, mining and transport . Demand destruction also means production destruction . Israel relies heavily on the protection and financing of the USA and that will be curtailed by the inability to provide the required resources. Money can't buy what doesn't exist . I liked the following comment for you...
Why should Russia “hit back” now while the US is busy literally disarming itself against what should be a 4th rate foe?
Ukraine has ZERO AD stock left. The US is not far behind. This is the ideal scenario for China to win without firing a shot.
Every day that passes brings us closer to an economic calamity. That calamity will educate the first world on what it’s like to live in the third. And everyone knows who is behind this. They are all awaiting their chance to twist the knife in our back.
What's changed since a few months ago in Iran's capability? You've been taking every chance you have to call Russia ie Putin a coward, etc, compared to the impressive Iranian response bombing of the Zionist entity in r12-day war. Why can't Iran do the same now? As you say, they're playing right into Israel's hands. Maybe Iran are cowards too? Or maybe they're running the same calculus as Russia has been doing?
And btw I'd like nothing better than for Boom, Boom TEL Aviv 2, trust me.
Iran is a major industrial nation backed up by Russia and China, it already showed how quickly it can rebuild and many destroyed military targets were really dummies. The US has an extremely restricted amount of stand-off weapons left, not enough to disable Iran.
The US has no real plan apart from disarming itself against Iran and running down global oil stocks. Next Iran closes the Red Sea and bombs the Saudi East-West pipeline. Things will stop pretty quickly after that.
Saudi Arabia? There is a defense agreement between the Saudis and Pakistan. If Pakistan is drawn into this war on the US side, then Trump got his ground troops. The Pakistani army is one of the best in the region.
I'm not convinced America is degrading Iran's power yet. Nearly all their power is located underground. That which is being hit by the US today is but a tiny portion of their power. That will, however, change if the US decides to start bombing their energy infrastructure. But in that case, I suspect the gloves would come off and Iran would massively retaliate against US assets in the region including their vassal states and esp israel. And if that didn't work and Iran's existence as a sovereign state were truly threatened, then I believe Russia and China would have to step into the theatre as Iran is critical to both countries.
"...then I believe Russia and China would have to step into the theatre as Iran is critical to both countries."
People used to say that about Russia protecting Syria, but one of the purposes of the Ukraine war was to neutralize it in just this way. I'm confident that Russia, under Putin, would never under any circumstances step meaningfully into the war with the US on behalf of Iran. And China, which surely must view Russia as even more important to it than Iran is, is the main supplier of drones to Ukraine.
Whether the US is meaningfully degrading Iran's power at this stage I'm not sure. Not attending to mainstream media and disregarding so much of the alt media does have a price. :) Probably not in understanding, though.
I don't know of anyone ever saying that Syria was essential to Russia, certainly not to the same degree as Iran. The Iran/Russia/China relationship is an optimal mix of power against the West. Taking out any leg of that structure (politically or militarily) would be a huge blow and would not likely be tolerated.
China might be the main supplier of toy-sized drones to Ukraine, but I think that the larger, longer range drones are mainly supplied by Europe and the UK and even Ukraine itself.
Simplicius is simplifying what US does as a nation. He focuses, by accident or purpose, on Trump and by that making him look a fool himself.
” Trump continues plying his neocon ‘forever war’ against Iran, with no plan or end in sight.” And in the article you find passages like ”Trump thinks” and ”Trump plans”.
And then readers jump on that train and directly loses their perspective and whats really going on.
US always had plans for Iran. Toppling the Ayatollahs has been the goal since 1979. And having the big Israeli cyst crying ”Irans nukes” for 20 years have nothing to do with what Trump ”thinks”. What we see is two nations performing an illegal War (all are) against Iran and their people. The alleged 52 000 dead demonstrators is the smoking gun and the Israeli operation to instigate those demonstration made sure that no opposition or other leaders will appear after an eventual downfall of the Iranian regime. By killing the moderates Israel secured that the War can continue without an end in sight. Hell, even V.P Vance stated recently that Israe sabotage any attempts to negoiate an agreement between US and Iran.
Iran is doing better than many expected. In fact this war has turned Iran into a stronger state, not weaker. I agree that there is some plan the anglo-american-zionists are following but it does not seem to be a good one. An area where the trump regime has been impressive is the way in which the financial markets have been manipulated. But even that can't go on for too long. Who knows though....
Sorry, Trump is not going to become the Master of Asia. He's not Alexander of Macedon. If he actually tries to invade then the Western economy will be devastated. The Western debt & credit system is already on the ropes, an invasion would cause it to all come crashing down.
Right now Iran is offering the US a pretty rough recession and currency devaluation. That offer will get worse as time goes on.
On the other hand there's a certain irony in all of this. The US government despises China, yet this war is massively subsidizing gold purchases by the Chinese state and the Chinese people.
Trump is making China richer by making the American people poorer.
‘...yet this war is massively subsidizing gold purchases by the Chinese state and the Chinese people.’
Do you mean that by devaluing the dollar, in which gold is priced, he makes gold cheaper for Chinese to buy with their dollar surpluses? Surely the dollar value of gold would tend to rise as the value of the dollar falls.
When Simplicius writes ”Trump thinks” and ”Trump plans” readers here actually believe its him doing it and that Trump has personal goals he wants to achieve at all cost.
Irrespective of President, US has been under the Israeli spell of ”Irans nukes” the last 20 years and US Deep state have never lost the goal of toppling the Ayatollahs of Iran (and getting their hands on the oil). It is US who thinks and plans and execute.
Isn't it the other way around? The Western system needs collateral for the gigantic debt bubble. No matter if this is Russian or Iranian oil/gas/uran/rare earth (...). The situation resembles that of the US during WWI. After the US adopted a "deliver now and pay later" policy, it needed to ensure that the side accumulating debt was victorious, as the credits represented the savings of ordinary citizens. At the end, many young American men were sent to Europe to fight and die, ultimately protecting the retirement savings of their fathers.
Watch Dmitri Lascaris interview Vanessa Beely (a long standing Western journalist out of Syria) today (The last 15-20 minutes....the first 1/2 is horrifying but should we expect anything less from Israel?). According to her Trump & Erdogan & Saudia Arabia agreed to get Jolani/HTS to amass 70,000 troops to go after Lebanon. I hope they get the same treatment as the Kurds are getting now. Treacherous bastards.
Al Qaeda has that many troops? Are IDF and Al Qaeda going to he fighting side by side in Southern Lebanon? Is Al Qaeda prepared to stomach the cruel methods the IDF uses against innocent women and children.
What is the point of a ground invasion when the Houthis can shut down the other strait? I suppose they can throw the Kurdish militias to the wolves but they aren't going to accomplish much.
The US has effectively accomplished its mission in the region. The oil, fertilizer, and LNG supply is severly reduced. This is only part of a larger war against the multipolar world. The US can't put all of its eggs in the Iranian basket when China is the main target.
Ground invasion of Hormuz coast would look like Gallipoli!
US could not degrade tiny Houthi rosketry.... Iran is huger and has a lot more than Houthi which are a version of hamas.... with rockets smuggled by Uiran.
The point of this operation is to reduce oil, LNG, fertlizer supply on the global market to the benefit of US corporate and geostrategic interests. Obviously the US does not very concerned if the supply is reduced in Qatar, UAE, or Kuwait. It is the total reduction that is important.
There is no point in doing a ground invasion if all they need to do is something egregious that would force Iran to order the Houthis to shut down the other strait. This dramatically reduces more supply to global markets. There is no need to take a storage island to accomplish this task.
the purpose of this war was juish- to destroy Iran
there is no master plan and no intelligent design in effect. The juze just want iran to be a destroyed, failed state. This is no more than libya or syria or iraq
ffs it's all part of the GD PNAC document....why is it that you people seem gd ignorant of that?
What is truly wild about this is, is that it seems to me that the US is not actually hitting anything of value most of the time. The bridges and the army bases are about the only thing I have seen that are clearly of some worth for expending munitions.
They even put out a video of USVs hitting an already blown up naval base and bragged about it.
The only indication I have seen that they have degraded anything, is that for whatever the reason the IRGC will not shoot down any of the tankers or AWACS that are just across the strait trying to make the southern route a 'thing.'
The IRGC will also, for whatever the reason, not actually shoot anything meaningful at warships. To this maybe they are trying to completely attrit all the SM-6 and SM-3 missiles that the warships have before lobbing any advanced cruise missiles or ASBMs at the fleet, or maybe the backchannel has indicated sinking a ship is a redline that might involve nukes and the IRGC is being cautious, though to that later point I doubt it.
The IRGC has been remarkably intense in bombing the American bases in the region: even claiming an operation against Al-Tanf in Syria. The fast pace of the satellite proof pics is also different than before.
This time some of the claims about hitting aircraft and hangars and barracks seem very credible. It is certainly true that the IRGC is blinding American radar systems, to the point that soon we might have practically no radar except for AWACS and whatever jet airframes are scanning with their phased array systems.
It does seem to me like Trump is on a terminal path: how long can this go on before we are right back at tank bottoms being a threat? How long can this campaign go on before it would be practically impossible for America to intervene against Russia or China? Both are far less afraid of a US campaign that has no JASSMs or Tomahawks which are apparently being dispensed like candy now.
I give it until the middle of August before Trump actually threatens real life nukes - then the situation we will know is truly bad for the US.
Shoot down AWACS and tankers! What Napoleon said about allowing your enemy to keep making the mistakes.
Those ISR and Tankers are keeping dozens of fighter wearing themselves out flying patrols to either sink fishing boats like in the Caribbean or try to shoot cruise missiles if Iran decides to waste any.
The important thing is to wear the US' assets out!
How long?
This campaign has sucked up all the critical spares for the US' fighter/attack aircraft to the extent that the mission capable rate for F-35 fleet is down to 25% (from 50%). Of course, the IDF and US' Iran deployed F-35's are wearing out the spares pool as well as consuming the older JASSM. They are already too low on JASSM ER. Four years to ramp up JASSM Er production to a fraction of the firing rate in a small war. JASSM maker is rolling on profit!
Iran (and Kiev) is showing a 250 pound warhead that hits really close is mostly too little.
US force employment is a fraction used on North Vietnam in 1972! While Iran is hugely bigger and lore hardened!
“The only indication I have seen that they have degraded anything, is that for whatever the reason the IRGC will not shoot down any of the tankers or AWACS…”
Yeah, this is almost certainly not possible for Iran. The US has something close to air supremacy there. The exception is at low altitudes where certain aircraft are vulnerable to drones. But the big SAMs that have the range to hit an AWACS or a refueler just can’t operate there right now. The moment any radar is turned on, it becomes a target for an anti radiation missile.
“The IRGC will also, for whatever the reason, not actually shoot anything meaningful at warships.”
This would be difficult but quite possible for Iran to do. But Iran isn’t doing this because it would result in a major escalation from the US. The sight of a burning warship on the evening news would make a reasonable fraction of Americans very angry and cause them to support a wider war. The USA has a long history with that actually: the USS Maine, the USS Arizona, etc.
US cannot defeat Iran, Iran cannot defeat the US. But, Iran wins by not being defeated.
Iran CAN, however, defeat the US' allies. And they KNOW it. When they start to forget or think otherwise, Iran lobs a drone at a DeSal plant to remind them.
"The sight of a burning warship on the evening news would make a reasonable fraction of Americans very angry and cause them to support a wider war."
Americans are waking up to this game - they now know the real history of the Gulf of Tonkin, the Maine and Pearl Harbor. I think the opposite would happen in today's climate - the American public might well react hugely to such an event and rise up in total opposition to continuing this war.
radar can operate at ranges sufficient to be OUT of range of ARGMs and still provide weapons grade tracks to missile systems
but those launch systems have to be close to the action. this is how Ukranus ambushes RuAF planes. Remote Patriot radars illuminate attack jets and launchers closer to the LoC take the shot using data links
the US is already pretty much without theater radar. AWACS will have to park at some point and will be subjected to attrition as well
the munitions depletion is already to the point where Russia should have struck the UK or something bc there don't exist sufficient supplies for any effective counterattack.
also, if RF is not giving Iran every last piece of ISR it can muster then they are fucking stupid given how the JUSA simply laughed and spit on them over Anchorage
they're no better or worse than ANY of the professional military!
look at the fuckin IDF- it's like the Ukranus war does not exist to these people....they marched into lebanon seemingly oblivious to the very EXISTENCE of FPVs...not even basic cope cages on their armor. They were supposedly the best military on the planet and chock full of EXPERT professionals
Hasn't Iran alredy been reduced as a "great power?" Iran's oil exports have already been reduced by 50%. Sure, Iran may have escalation dominance over the region but why does that matter when the objective is to drastically reduce the fertilizer, LNG, and oil supply that is coming out of West Asia? The mission is accomplished.
On the subject of "mission accomplished," a shortage of diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products in the US is not a problem for the current administration. In fact, scarcity will give the government new leverage over the masses. It will force wealth upward. For one example, US energy companies will add a comfortable margin to any price increases and will suddenly be awash in funds for investment as well as nefarious purposes, such as influence buying. Like a bellows, each swing of the economy produces huge winners. I believe the US and Israeli planners of this debacle, together with the allied financiers, have decided that an unprecedental global disruption to energy supplies presents alluring opportunities for privileged players to syphon off more than ever before.
Brian Berletic is correct when he says interrupting Hormuz was planned years ago. He regularly shows the think tank documents that predict US warmaking and influence strategies, for example, causing China to suffer from reduced energy imports.
I know what he is Simp. I know what happened and why some of us were fooled including me.
He burst onto the scene not to be taken seriously. The Powers That Be (TPTB) hated him from the get go for spouting populism. Up until that time they had us in a 2 party corral setup which made us easy to control. Very few slipped outside it. To be frank, it worked quite well.
He began to push it tho. Then he started slashing both political parties by divulging inner secrets (War in Iraq). The Plebes (me and you) were enthralled by this. Many of us assumed he must be a positive and allied force.
They decided to let him win. Do you remember the rumor from HRC she said “I knew they would not let me win.” The goal was to make an embarrassment outta him but more importantly Populism. Bernie Sanders was committing the same atrocity from the other side.
I could be wrong but I simply don't believe the US populace has the stomach for a ground invasion of mainland Iran, Kharg Island perhaps, but the outcome will be the same. The US would no longer be able to claim "no casualties" as Iranian missile impacts or FPV drone footage would flood the internet showing the last pathetic moment of someone's son or daughter succumbing to the inevitable. The bodies will stack up and questions of "what did they die for" will flood politicians inboxes.
Americans love watching that footage when it shows Russians on the receiving end but when it is their own they see, they will abandon the sense that war is like a football game, no cheering only sadness.
America isn't the same as the 60s and 70s, and even back then there was a class/race divide. The AWFULs won't care if its people from the Midwest or South who are killed. Indeed, they would likely celebrate.
I think you seriously underestimate the stomach that Boomers have for war in the Middle East to Israel's advantage. And they hold the political power in the country.
I also have a prediction. Another comment here mentioned the possibility of a coalition forming made up of Jolani's HTS fighters to attack Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah. I do not think this is a bad prediction, though I wonder if the Lebanese state could survive letting actual head-choppers roam about the Lebanese country-side to kill all the Shia muslims there, but certainly Aoun will find a way if there is one.
To me the most likely thing to happen soon, given the enormous build up in Djibouti, is a campaign against Ansarallah.
Saudi Arabia and its proxies already have a ground force available to join, and domestically Trump declaring a victory by keeping the Bab El Mandeb would be a great PR win and distraction from Hormuz. It fits right in with Trump's short term thinking.
This is not to say I don't think that America will shy away from some kind of ground operation in Western Iran using the kurds, mercs, and whatever Israel could be forced to contribute, just that attacking Ansarallah is much more logistically feasible than hoping that coalition forces could do something in Western Iran given the enormous logistical chain they would need to make any meaningful advances anywhere. Yemen is on paper, much easier.
Sulfur, aluminum, fertilizer, and helium can't be sent via pipeline. Idiots who suggest a pipeline across the region as a solution to bypass the closure of the Strait of Hormuz need to lay off the crackpipe.
The Strait sees a massive amount of non-petroleum cargo traffic going to and from Gulf ports in Kuwait, Iraq, and the emirates. Imports and exports both.
There is no replacement for the Strait of Hormuz, and no one's even going to try an alternative because:
1. It would require hideous amounts of money that would all be wasted the moment peace breaks out, and
2. Iran can destroy both the terminals and any alternate route with their ballistic missiles.
Two alternative petroleum pipelines coming out of the Gulf already exist. One goes to Fujairah on the Oman Sea, and one transits Saudi Arabia all the way to the Red Sea. Their continued existence rests solely on the good will of Iran's missile forces. But as you say, pipelines cannot move many of the Gulf's key products.
Hello, everyone.
The devil made me do it.
Badabing, badaboom.
You da man, D man.
“Pleased to meet you…”
Sweet.
The USA will soon expend it's munition arsenal (the last time in March-April they had stock for 6 weeks). Replacement production is minimal and would need $1.5 trl investment within the next 4 years. So Trump is fast disarming it's army.
Boots on ground, but not American one, but from some NATO countries, in 2 months they might be ready for deployment to Middle East. Pretext for mass mobilisation would be street riots and false flag terrorist attacks on underground metro systems.
The next option left to USA/Israel on Iran is escalation to nukes, including dirty ones and attacking nuclear power stations and nuclear laboratories. That caused by Israels false flag on it's own nuclear facilities. They might also nuke Yemen, and even Somalia, to open the Red Sea. And Trump trying to charge 20% for traffic passing Suez Canal.
And experimental weapons, which Trump is mentioning from time to time since 2019, now known yet publicly, will be used. Probably related to neutron bomb, killing all life, but minimal physical blast and radiation. That ones are left for East Asia, closer to Chinese border, and on China itself.
East Asia? China? tRump has expended half of his munitions on Iran and gotten how far? What do you think would happen if he challenged China? Nukes aren't just available to the USA exclusively, and tangling with China would be his costliest, biggest and absolutely last mistake
Usage of a neutron bomb is probably functionally equivalent to a full nuke. Allows Iran to launch a nuke. Maybe this is how it will go tho.
Whatever happens we can be sure the Iranians have wargamed being nuked, and no doubt Russia and China were part of the discussion.
I suspect backchannels are being heavily used these days between Russia, China and USrael, warning USrael against just that. Iran is a critical asset to Russia and China - neither can afford to lose Iran.
Russian/Chinese and Pakistani reply will be sudden, fast and hard.
No need for warnings and disclosing it's plans. Israel would be the main target, ending existence of state and it's relocation to Eastern Europe
Agreed. Indeed, if I were Iran, I think I might consider bombing israel every time the US bombs Iran, further degrading israel and ultimately threatening its existence - the US has too much invested in israel to abandon it - in fact, the zionists in America would never allow that to happen. And if the US starts bombing Iranian power plants, then Iran should immediately turn on israel's power plants.
Hitting israel is the bast way to inflict pain on the US in that region.
I have read that there is large movements of planes and munitions heading into Israel from Europe . More and more fuel on the fire . The middle east is going to get toasted.
I sincerely hope that is the case.
The most effective weapon in that category is an EMP weapon. Kills all electronics that are not heavily shielded. Electrical grids and infrastructure get cooked. Much of the communications will be destroyed too. Neutron weapons have a smaller blast and kill range and are a tactical nuke. Israel is believed to have a large stock of these and that increases the possibility of their being used.
Although neutron bombs have a mysterious aura about them, they only have a killing range of less than 1500 meters - I suspect that it would take an immense number of these to make a significant impact in war, and the fact that they are equated to nukes, makes the attacker subject to a nuclear response. Practically, they would only be used in specific conditions of war.
It's a secret, experimental, new quality weapon, related to nuclear or rather neutron bombs, but much more powerful from known neutron bombs. Comparable in killing effect to Tsar Bomba, which was 55 megatons, but many times over.
It was likely already tested during Trump's first presidency. Classified documents about nuclear weapons were confiscated at Mar a Lago.
"But I have built a nucle-, a weap-, I have built a weapons system, weapons system, that nobody's ever had in this country before," Trump said.
"We have stuff that you haven't even seen or heard about. We have stuff that Putin and Xi have never heard about before. There's nobody. What we have is incredible."
https://www.france24.com/en/20200910-did-trump-disclose-secret-us-nuclear-weapon-in-interview
Yeah, I put this in the same category as his statement that he has weapons that bend time and space, bend them like nobody has ever bent them before, bending them like Beckham! Next we will be hearing about his alliances with the aliens at the South Pole bringing them into the Coalition of the Willing.
These weapons, if they really exist, have to be nuclear in essence, so are not likely to be used as they would result in a massive nuclear response. And if they are non-nuclear (extremely unlikely), they are probably prohibitively expensive and will have only limited use - if they really work at all. The US does not have a good track record at developing affordable weapons that actually work on the battlefield.
Wunderwaffen? In Ukraine we saw again and again the introduction of this "game changing weapons" - result: ZERO.
What a total retard. Now I know how Rome fell.
Hahaha, Corskter.
Many times, I have allowed others to start the conversation, so nobody whines about my making the first comment. But, today, I assert my domination like Billy, the kid, with a gun.
Bang, bang, adios gringo.
Instead of focusing on Trump's "madness" and "delusional" plans and statements, why don't you look at what the US is actually doing, which is killing people and degrading Iran's power. He'd probably like to grab their oil - it is Trump after all - but the plan is to neutralize Iran as a great power. That process is underway. Whether Iran can make it stop is questionable. Doubtful even.
The optics as told by the US is one thing and reality is totally another. I think your perception is clouded by mainstream media because trump has admitted to not knowing what Iran's capabilities are and Iran has been preparing for this for decades where the US is working on tRump impulsivity.
No comparison
I never watch mainstream media. And the alt media is pretty piss poor too. You might need to check your own perception. The empire does not work on "impulsivity."
The empire may not but tRump certainly does. How many truths has he told? None. How many times has the war been on again off again to manipulate the stock market so he could profit from the fluctuations? I don't need to check anything because the receipts are there if you care to look.
Trump is a criminal as far as I'm concerned, but he's doing the empire's business, and the empire is not impulsive.
Iran's Trump card is their 6000+ MRBMs and 80,000 drones. If "the empire" puts them into the Stone Age, they'll take out Israel's desalinization plants and those of the gulf states while still maintaining hold of the Hormuz and probably Bab Al-Mandeb Strait. Definitely going to be a full blown Middle East war at that point and possibly a third world war. I don't see Russia and China allowing Iran to fall without some level of say in the matter as well. However, they might just let us collapse our own empire in doing so and scoop up the remains. At least China will.
A term they use for US treatment of Russia via Ukraine is "salami slicing," meaning just continuous small steps over the various red lines which don't draw a full response. I think that's what they have in mind for Iran, too - just short of something triggering widespread destruction of desalinization plants. I could be wrong about that, though. And the strategy should be wrong both in Iran and Russia, but it's worked so far.
You never watch mainstream news. You don't care for alt media. Do you read books and magazines for your news insights? Or is all this gut feelings?
I credited you with better sense than to ask this question.
Elena, I have never been credited with sense - just ask my wife. 🙃
Elena: The empire does not work on "impulsivity."
The British decision to back the AIIB and thus a key pillar of the Belt and Road Initiative surprised the US leadership.
What will happen to the US according to your perception?
Iraq was preparing for over a decade as well. Fat lot of good that did them.
Iraq is not Iran and to compare one to the other is to compare chalk to cheese. Iran came back from a regime change that broke Iraq, came back stronger, more determined and far better prepared. Persia is so much older than anything around it and has withstood armies far more powerful than the tRump clown show.
Iraq won the iran-iraq war, btw. Whatever you have to tell yourself. Persia is an old civilization. So was pharonic Egypt. That didn't help them.
Saying "Iraq" won the Iraq-Iran War is like saying Canada won WW2.
I fought in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. We could sit safely on our bases with only suicide car bomb infiltration attacks and indirect fire munitions to worry about. Iran? You can't get an amphibious or carrier within 300 Km of the country. Unless we start WW3 with a nuke, you will need a ground invasion. Any troop carrier coming within anti-ship missile range is going to be sent to Davy Jones's locker with 600 Americans KIA
SAY WUH?!!!
HOW did Iraq win the Iran Iraq war? Please expound.
Have you ever been there? I worked in customs clearance in Basra, Iraq, from August 1985 to April 1988. Is winning a war determined solely by numbers?
At the time, the living conditions and mental state of the local Iraqi population were so chaotic that Saddam Hussein had no choice but to invade Kuwait.
Alternate history is an interesting hobby. Inaccuracies, but interesting to some.
Nah Feral that's bullshit. Iran was a different situation. Much more like Cuba or Venezuela than Iraq who had already had their asses kicked in real kinetic war lasting many years with Iran. And with western help (although the perfidious gringos "helped" both sides as needed, politically).
To Madeleine Albright: "Was it worth it?"
Albright: "Yes."
Iraq was virtually destroyed by the first "Gulf War" (highway of death and total destruction of infrastructure MALreported by western media) and then the follow-on post-USSR collapse sanctions/blockade/sabotage.
Last sentence should be Iraq instead of Iran.
Yeah sorry correcting.
The president works for the JCS, certainly on matters like these.
But I say Iran can hold out. They can blast Tel Aviv every night. Iran will be resupplied via Central Asia. The Muslim world publics are with Iran.
But they are not bombing Tel Aviv. They're doing Tel Aviv's dirty work by creaming all the gulf states which should be combining to destroy Tel Aviv.
That's not how the Gulf state and other Arab satrapies work. In most cases, you've got a highly unpopular minority ruling over the majority with US military, surveillance and police apparatus assistance (money, weapons, technology, propaganda) suppressing the popular will of the actual majority in these respective countries. If that wasn't the case, they'd have combined to bomb Tel Aviv years ago. It has very little to do with the Arab public and almost everything to do with bought off elites ruling those countries often with an iron fist, and doing the bidding of the US and "Israel."
What you say is true, but it does not negate what I said, other than your claim that if the majority were ruling they would have combined. There's no real evidence of that, and the new rulers would be as susceptible to corruption as the old ones were. Plus, if there were revolutions they'd be neutralized for many years just from that. Israel's first action after the fall of Assad was to destroy all of Syria's weapons. That's what Iran is doing to the other Gulf states.
We have evidence of it from the 1950s and 1960s. Before those countries fell under the rule of propped up, bought off elites - which in some cases simply means a new generation of leaders decided that anti-Zionism and support for their fellow Muslims/Arabs was less important than a posh, modernized lifestyle - there were several attempts and ongoing plans to attack and disband the Zionist Entity.
Iran is primarily destroying the US's weapons that happen to be stationed in those countries since their elites stupidly fell for the ruse that US bases there would protect them from _____ (insert the manufactured villain du jour, Iraq and now Iran). I highly doubt that Iran is the primary entity attacking desalination or electricity generation mainly geared to civilian use, either. That to me sounds a lot more like the false flag MO of USrael. Yes, Iran is degrading SOME of that stuff with a military use, and likely responding tit-for-tat when its civilian infrastructure is targeted, but nowhere near as much as the narrative masters would have us believe.
And concurrent to the buy-off/prop-up campaigns the US and "Israel" (with former EU colonial powers' help) there have been massive psyop operations being run by "western intelligence" services using easily bought off or blackmailed citizens. So Iran is actually weakening the ruling minorities in most of those places. Where you do have a good point is that once those majorities rise up and take over, they won't be able to get enough weapons to fight off the collective waste and capitalist or "Israeli" expansionism.
Very important point! The US is using Israel to bring in new forces and for sure to refit and repair the existing forces. The civilian airport Ben Gurion is so overfilled with US warplanes, that the normal civilian flights have to be reduced. But Israel ist "neutral" and therefore Irans hands are not free. But Israel is destroying Hezbolla.
Perhaps one reason Iran is targeting the Gulf states is that they are a vital component of the petro-dollar iarchitecture, perhaps Iran is illustrating what a bad deal the GCC states have and encouraging them to start hedging. Also, given Israel has nukes it would make sense if Iran is exercising some restraint.
I agree, too much emphasis on what Trump says, what Trump writes, what Trump knows or doesn't know. What Trump says on TV. Trump is a showman and a front man. He doesn't know anything and he isn't making any military decisions. Why do so many analysts in alt-media continue to act as if Trump is making all the decisions? He isn't planning anything militarily, and he isn't making any strategic decisions on his own.
It is the Office of the President that is making the decisions, as required by the US Constitution. Trump just happens to be the chump occupying that office today and speaks on behalf of the Office. In actuality and on a practical basis, the Office is controlled by outside interests. And as the zionists weave themselves further and deeper into the American ruling fabric, you can guess who those "outside interests" are.
Who do you think prepare those chunks of Presidential orders?
Its a thousand headed administration thinking and planning.
Exactly my point.
Simplicius is doing the readers a disfavour when he writes Trump thinks and plans and have no goals…
But you're missing the point that short of nukes, dirty bombs or some other wunderweeeponz, the US simply cannot do that alone. That is why Trump and Co. whine so frequently to try to get other nations, including NATO partners, to join up. Why? Because as stated above, the US simply doesn't have, nor can it manufacture, sufficient conventional munitions to keep this up. This should be evidenced to any thinking and observant person by the fact that they have switched to primarily civilian or dual-use "targets" like cancer hospitals, train stations, vehicle bridges, desalination plants and electricity generation. It's a last hurrah at least in terms of "standard" warfare.
That's where the dirty tricks come in. Actual nuclear missiles/bombs? Unlikely. Perhaps a "suitcase" nuke in Tehran, helped by whatever Mossad/CIA assets remain in the country. Or "Israel" (or the US) staging a major false flag designed to provoke other nations to commit their military power to topple the "terror regime" in Iran once and for all. Because right now, on both an absolute and relative scale, in a before-vs-after comparison, the US (meaning most US civilians and military members) is losing this war of choice militarily and economically.
TL/DR version - IF in fact the US (and "Israel") do succeed in "neutralizing" Iran and/or stealing its oil - means very different than the standard military ones we've seen thus far will be needed. They've tried multiple coups, they've hit civilian targets and murdered numerous Iranian leaders, and they've claimed to have severely depleted Iran's ability to strike back or cause damage. None of that bears out in terms of degrading/toppling Iran's capabilities in reality, so something "different" is going to be needed.
You're not thinking in long enough terms. This is not Trump's will o the wisp, it's the empire's business. Think of Syria. It wasn't munitions that finally brought it down, it was economic strangulation and dirty tricks, various military escapades, funding every dissident, bribing everyone they could. All of those things remain options for the US. Time is the something different that's needed, and the US has it despite what people here love to think.
And they will get help from their various vassals.
Russia is facing the same danger. Unlike Iran, Russia COULD hit back, but it doesn't.
That only strengthens my points. But you are correct about the long game, and this is one that's been running since before 1979. That's the problem here. They've tried over and over to topple the Iranian government and religious leadership so that they could rape and pillage Iran for its resources, for its geostrategically important location, and because Iran represents the last major impediment to regional Zionist expansion. None of it has worked.
And you're exactly right about Syria. It wasn't necessarily munitions that ENDED UP forcing Assad to flee, although that was how it started. But Iran isn't Syria for too many reasons to name. They've been at this on and off (mostly on) since the 1950s, and have succeeded only for a short period (thinking in the long term) when the Shah was installed and propped up.
Further, Russia is a vastly different situation, abeit one which the "west" views through the same lens. For one thing, I think Russia is actually in more danger given the recent (again in long term thinking) manufactured and engrained-then-inflamed Russophobia gripping the EU. But even then, they have failed to topple Putin's government or weaken Russia again - in large part due to the civilizational memory of the Russian people, which is one aspect they share with Iran. Both know that the US and "west" are not agreement capable.
But sure, if we're talking the REALLY long game, as in a century or more starting within the past year's timeframe, who knows what will happen. Big money does have a great overall win rate. The bankers lose a military war and they just shift forms and rebrand. That's globo-cap acting like The Borg in Star Trek. They want everyone to assimilate, and with ever increasing wealth concentration and a corresponding/concurrent push toward total surveillance and police states which is of course what they want for Iran and Russia so long as both are open to exploitation and extraction - the window in which to push back seems to be shrinking. Just looking at the arc of modern history, I wouldn't bet against it EVENTUALLY happening in either place. It's just not going to be within either of our lifetimes, let alone as the result of the two respective wars being waged on them.
The Russian civilizational memory should include that many states of the USSR were stripped away from them (by the dissolution) and are now hostile to Russia and in many cases western puppets. My bet is that within fifteen years there will be more of that unless some more vigorous leader replaces Putin.
Not making any bets about Iran, but I don't like their chances and don't think we're talking about a long time, either. The US goal there is simply to neutralize Iran as a regional power, though. Maybe US action should be regarded as "mowing the grass," to use Israel's demonic language, rather than an attempt to topple leadership. I don't think they care about the leadership much.
It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive. Yes, of course USrael want to "mow the grass" and weaken Iran's role as a regional power, but they also want to overthrow the government and hope it gets replaced by one that will bend the knee to western private finance and Zionist expansionism. That's exactly what they hoped would happen starting with the ginned up "protests" (read violent riots carried out mostly by Mossad/CIA assets which started as legitimate economy based demonstrations) and then again when they murdered as many Iranian leaders as they could, who were to USRael's dismay, replaced by harder-line anti-USrael people.
While I don't want to get into the Russia/Putin thing in depth, I do agree that if this Ukraine thing runs on for too much longer at the current scale, Russia will need a much harder line leader than Putin if they want to preserve their sovereignty and do their own thing economically outside of the current western-dominated financial system and "rules based order."
I would "like" this comment if the system would let me. I'm sure they'd be happy to replace Iranian government with puppets, and I'm sure they'll keep trying. The main strategic interest is to neutralize them as a power, though.
Elena,
In the end logistics will determine the outcome . We are now looking at declining supplies of many resources due to our extraction of the easy sources . Both energy and many minerals and metals are getting more expensive to mine and refine (both in money and energy) and USA and the west is heavily invested in expensive energy and ever increasing debt. This latest gamble is probably a "hail mary" for Trump as the USA needs copious amounts of diesel and heavy fuels to run its agriculture, mining and transport . Demand destruction also means production destruction . Israel relies heavily on the protection and financing of the USA and that will be curtailed by the inability to provide the required resources. Money can't buy what doesn't exist . I liked the following comment for you...
Why should Russia “hit back” now while the US is busy literally disarming itself against what should be a 4th rate foe?
Ukraine has ZERO AD stock left. The US is not far behind. This is the ideal scenario for China to win without firing a shot.
Every day that passes brings us closer to an economic calamity. That calamity will educate the first world on what it’s like to live in the third. And everyone knows who is behind this. They are all awaiting their chance to twist the knife in our back.
What's changed since a few months ago in Iran's capability? You've been taking every chance you have to call Russia ie Putin a coward, etc, compared to the impressive Iranian response bombing of the Zionist entity in r12-day war. Why can't Iran do the same now? As you say, they're playing right into Israel's hands. Maybe Iran are cowards too? Or maybe they're running the same calculus as Russia has been doing?
And btw I'd like nothing better than for Boom, Boom TEL Aviv 2, trust me.
This time the time is not on the empire's side. They are literally insolvent
Iran is a major industrial nation backed up by Russia and China, it already showed how quickly it can rebuild and many destroyed military targets were really dummies. The US has an extremely restricted amount of stand-off weapons left, not enough to disable Iran.
The US has no real plan apart from disarming itself against Iran and running down global oil stocks. Next Iran closes the Red Sea and bombs the Saudi East-West pipeline. Things will stop pretty quickly after that.
Saudi Arabia? There is a defense agreement between the Saudis and Pakistan. If Pakistan is drawn into this war on the US side, then Trump got his ground troops. The Pakistani army is one of the best in the region.
I'm not convinced America is degrading Iran's power yet. Nearly all their power is located underground. That which is being hit by the US today is but a tiny portion of their power. That will, however, change if the US decides to start bombing their energy infrastructure. But in that case, I suspect the gloves would come off and Iran would massively retaliate against US assets in the region including their vassal states and esp israel. And if that didn't work and Iran's existence as a sovereign state were truly threatened, then I believe Russia and China would have to step into the theatre as Iran is critical to both countries.
"...then I believe Russia and China would have to step into the theatre as Iran is critical to both countries."
People used to say that about Russia protecting Syria, but one of the purposes of the Ukraine war was to neutralize it in just this way. I'm confident that Russia, under Putin, would never under any circumstances step meaningfully into the war with the US on behalf of Iran. And China, which surely must view Russia as even more important to it than Iran is, is the main supplier of drones to Ukraine.
Whether the US is meaningfully degrading Iran's power at this stage I'm not sure. Not attending to mainstream media and disregarding so much of the alt media does have a price. :) Probably not in understanding, though.
I don't know of anyone ever saying that Syria was essential to Russia, certainly not to the same degree as Iran. The Iran/Russia/China relationship is an optimal mix of power against the West. Taking out any leg of that structure (politically or militarily) would be a huge blow and would not likely be tolerated.
China might be the main supplier of toy-sized drones to Ukraine, but I think that the larger, longer range drones are mainly supplied by Europe and the UK and even Ukraine itself.
This is why I like your writing Elena!
Simplicius is simplifying what US does as a nation. He focuses, by accident or purpose, on Trump and by that making him look a fool himself.
” Trump continues plying his neocon ‘forever war’ against Iran, with no plan or end in sight.” And in the article you find passages like ”Trump thinks” and ”Trump plans”.
And then readers jump on that train and directly loses their perspective and whats really going on.
US always had plans for Iran. Toppling the Ayatollahs has been the goal since 1979. And having the big Israeli cyst crying ”Irans nukes” for 20 years have nothing to do with what Trump ”thinks”. What we see is two nations performing an illegal War (all are) against Iran and their people. The alleged 52 000 dead demonstrators is the smoking gun and the Israeli operation to instigate those demonstration made sure that no opposition or other leaders will appear after an eventual downfall of the Iranian regime. By killing the moderates Israel secured that the War can continue without an end in sight. Hell, even V.P Vance stated recently that Israe sabotage any attempts to negoiate an agreement between US and Iran.
Iran is doing better than many expected. In fact this war has turned Iran into a stronger state, not weaker. I agree that there is some plan the anglo-american-zionists are following but it does not seem to be a good one. An area where the trump regime has been impressive is the way in which the financial markets have been manipulated. But even that can't go on for too long. Who knows though....
Sorry, Trump is not going to become the Master of Asia. He's not Alexander of Macedon. If he actually tries to invade then the Western economy will be devastated. The Western debt & credit system is already on the ropes, an invasion would cause it to all come crashing down.
The problem is Trump has no good offramp. The Iranians only seem to be offering humiliation.
Right now Iran is offering the US a pretty rough recession and currency devaluation. That offer will get worse as time goes on.
On the other hand there's a certain irony in all of this. The US government despises China, yet this war is massively subsidizing gold purchases by the Chinese state and the Chinese people.
Trump is making China richer by making the American people poorer.
‘...yet this war is massively subsidizing gold purchases by the Chinese state and the Chinese people.’
Do you mean that by devaluing the dollar, in which gold is priced, he makes gold cheaper for Chinese to buy with their dollar surpluses? Surely the dollar value of gold would tend to rise as the value of the dollar falls.
When Simplicius writes ”Trump thinks” and ”Trump plans” readers here actually believe its him doing it and that Trump has personal goals he wants to achieve at all cost.
Irrespective of President, US has been under the Israeli spell of ”Irans nukes” the last 20 years and US Deep state have never lost the goal of toppling the Ayatollahs of Iran (and getting their hands on the oil). It is US who thinks and plans and execute.
You have to ask at some point - is all this deliberate?
Cui bono?
The usual suspect is always Khazaristan.
We know Donnie works for them.
Isn't it the other way around? The Western system needs collateral for the gigantic debt bubble. No matter if this is Russian or Iranian oil/gas/uran/rare earth (...). The situation resembles that of the US during WWI. After the US adopted a "deliver now and pay later" policy, it needed to ensure that the side accumulating debt was victorious, as the credits represented the savings of ordinary citizens. At the end, many young American men were sent to Europe to fight and die, ultimately protecting the retirement savings of their fathers.
Watch Dmitri Lascaris interview Vanessa Beely (a long standing Western journalist out of Syria) today (The last 15-20 minutes....the first 1/2 is horrifying but should we expect anything less from Israel?). According to her Trump & Erdogan & Saudia Arabia agreed to get Jolani/HTS to amass 70,000 troops to go after Lebanon. I hope they get the same treatment as the Kurds are getting now. Treacherous bastards.
Al Qaeda has that many troops? Are IDF and Al Qaeda going to he fighting side by side in Southern Lebanon? Is Al Qaeda prepared to stomach the cruel methods the IDF uses against innocent women and children.
AQ and IOF are equal in barbarity as both are Zionist militias.
AQ is applying the same zionist cruelty and barbarism to the Syrian minorities as the genocide masters apply against Gaza and the West Bank.
Obama's head choppers: al Nusra who Obama and Trump fed in Idlib would not get past chopping Druze and Maronite heads, because Hizbollah shoots back!
Of course the amateurs running the empire con't look at map and don't know that head choppers need to eat and drink H2O!
That doesn't seem outlandish. Hard to sell that with the Turkish public tho. Rank and file Turkish army.
Since when does the Turkish public and army rand and file matter in such decisions?
Do you have a link to the interview?
Here.
I did the work for you.
https://reason2resist.substack.com/p/ritual-child-abuse-scandal-rocks
i don't believe they'll be interested in that.
the Turds didn't bite on this stupid shit either and everyone knows that you get in bed with the juish devil your soul stays behind
What is the point of a ground invasion when the Houthis can shut down the other strait? I suppose they can throw the Kurdish militias to the wolves but they aren't going to accomplish much.
The US has effectively accomplished its mission in the region. The oil, fertilizer, and LNG supply is severly reduced. This is only part of a larger war against the multipolar world. The US can't put all of its eggs in the Iranian basket when China is the main target.
Ground invasion of Hormuz coast would look like Gallipoli!
US could not degrade tiny Houthi rosketry.... Iran is huger and has a lot more than Houthi which are a version of hamas.... with rockets smuggled by Uiran.
The point of this operation is to reduce oil, LNG, fertlizer supply on the global market to the benefit of US corporate and geostrategic interests. Obviously the US does not very concerned if the supply is reduced in Qatar, UAE, or Kuwait. It is the total reduction that is important.
There is no point in doing a ground invasion if all they need to do is something egregious that would force Iran to order the Houthis to shut down the other strait. This dramatically reduces more supply to global markets. There is no need to take a storage island to accomplish this task.
Amateurs for empire, grand strategy of the deluded is not my thing
no it fucking isn't
the purpose of this war was juish- to destroy Iran
there is no master plan and no intelligent design in effect. The juze just want iran to be a destroyed, failed state. This is no more than libya or syria or iraq
ffs it's all part of the GD PNAC document....why is it that you people seem gd ignorant of that?
Gallipoli on the menu. Then comes Suez and a series of sovereign debt defaults.
What is truly wild about this is, is that it seems to me that the US is not actually hitting anything of value most of the time. The bridges and the army bases are about the only thing I have seen that are clearly of some worth for expending munitions.
They even put out a video of USVs hitting an already blown up naval base and bragged about it.
The only indication I have seen that they have degraded anything, is that for whatever the reason the IRGC will not shoot down any of the tankers or AWACS that are just across the strait trying to make the southern route a 'thing.'
The IRGC will also, for whatever the reason, not actually shoot anything meaningful at warships. To this maybe they are trying to completely attrit all the SM-6 and SM-3 missiles that the warships have before lobbing any advanced cruise missiles or ASBMs at the fleet, or maybe the backchannel has indicated sinking a ship is a redline that might involve nukes and the IRGC is being cautious, though to that later point I doubt it.
The IRGC has been remarkably intense in bombing the American bases in the region: even claiming an operation against Al-Tanf in Syria. The fast pace of the satellite proof pics is also different than before.
This time some of the claims about hitting aircraft and hangars and barracks seem very credible. It is certainly true that the IRGC is blinding American radar systems, to the point that soon we might have practically no radar except for AWACS and whatever jet airframes are scanning with their phased array systems.
It does seem to me like Trump is on a terminal path: how long can this go on before we are right back at tank bottoms being a threat? How long can this campaign go on before it would be practically impossible for America to intervene against Russia or China? Both are far less afraid of a US campaign that has no JASSMs or Tomahawks which are apparently being dispensed like candy now.
I give it until the middle of August before Trump actually threatens real life nukes - then the situation we will know is truly bad for the US.
Shoot down AWACS and tankers! What Napoleon said about allowing your enemy to keep making the mistakes.
Those ISR and Tankers are keeping dozens of fighter wearing themselves out flying patrols to either sink fishing boats like in the Caribbean or try to shoot cruise missiles if Iran decides to waste any.
The important thing is to wear the US' assets out!
How long?
This campaign has sucked up all the critical spares for the US' fighter/attack aircraft to the extent that the mission capable rate for F-35 fleet is down to 25% (from 50%). Of course, the IDF and US' Iran deployed F-35's are wearing out the spares pool as well as consuming the older JASSM. They are already too low on JASSM ER. Four years to ramp up JASSM Er production to a fraction of the firing rate in a small war. JASSM maker is rolling on profit!
Iran (and Kiev) is showing a 250 pound warhead that hits really close is mostly too little.
US force employment is a fraction used on North Vietnam in 1972! While Iran is hugely bigger and lore hardened!
You have the Flightradar videoclip…
Why not send 10-20 ballistic missiles loaded with phosphourus and splinters and detonate them over Ben Gurion, Nevatim and Tel Nof?
Crippling the tankers and AWACS is of course good but destroying the fleet of C17 is much better.
are you fucking stupid? without tankers the mission available rate of these planes is 0%
for fuck's sake stop seeing grand strategy in something that is just simple incapacity
“The only indication I have seen that they have degraded anything, is that for whatever the reason the IRGC will not shoot down any of the tankers or AWACS…”
Yeah, this is almost certainly not possible for Iran. The US has something close to air supremacy there. The exception is at low altitudes where certain aircraft are vulnerable to drones. But the big SAMs that have the range to hit an AWACS or a refueler just can’t operate there right now. The moment any radar is turned on, it becomes a target for an anti radiation missile.
“The IRGC will also, for whatever the reason, not actually shoot anything meaningful at warships.”
This would be difficult but quite possible for Iran to do. But Iran isn’t doing this because it would result in a major escalation from the US. The sight of a burning warship on the evening news would make a reasonable fraction of Americans very angry and cause them to support a wider war. The USA has a long history with that actually: the USS Maine, the USS Arizona, etc.
Exaclty.
US cannot defeat Iran, Iran cannot defeat the US. But, Iran wins by not being defeated.
Iran CAN, however, defeat the US' allies. And they KNOW it. When they start to forget or think otherwise, Iran lobs a drone at a DeSal plant to remind them.
"The sight of a burning warship on the evening news would make a reasonable fraction of Americans very angry and cause them to support a wider war."
Americans are waking up to this game - they now know the real history of the Gulf of Tonkin, the Maine and Pearl Harbor. I think the opposite would happen in today's climate - the American public might well react hugely to such an event and rise up in total opposition to continuing this war.
the US public is ALREADY against this war
everyone kinda now knows, except for some persistent idiots, that it's simply another Ju war.
OMG. Why shoot them down when you can bomb them on the tarmac in Israel and Jordan?
radar can operate at ranges sufficient to be OUT of range of ARGMs and still provide weapons grade tracks to missile systems
but those launch systems have to be close to the action. this is how Ukranus ambushes RuAF planes. Remote Patriot radars illuminate attack jets and launchers closer to the LoC take the shot using data links
I bet they level the embassy compound in Beirut next
it's just tit for tat crap right now
the US is already pretty much without theater radar. AWACS will have to park at some point and will be subjected to attrition as well
the munitions depletion is already to the point where Russia should have struck the UK or something bc there don't exist sufficient supplies for any effective counterattack.
also, if RF is not giving Iran every last piece of ISR it can muster then they are fucking stupid given how the JUSA simply laughed and spit on them over Anchorage
Delusions.
SecWar is a national guard major who had a TV show.
Chair of JCS is a retired national guard general who supported trump.
US is deluded run by amateurs who fire anyone questioning.
They pay weapons makers based on delusions the stuff works.
Denis could run the pentagon!
they're no better or worse than ANY of the professional military!
look at the fuckin IDF- it's like the Ukranus war does not exist to these people....they marched into lebanon seemingly oblivious to the very EXISTENCE of FPVs...not even basic cope cages on their armor. They were supposedly the best military on the planet and chock full of EXPERT professionals
Hasn't Iran alredy been reduced as a "great power?" Iran's oil exports have already been reduced by 50%. Sure, Iran may have escalation dominance over the region but why does that matter when the objective is to drastically reduce the fertilizer, LNG, and oil supply that is coming out of West Asia? The mission is accomplished.
On the subject of "mission accomplished," a shortage of diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products in the US is not a problem for the current administration. In fact, scarcity will give the government new leverage over the masses. It will force wealth upward. For one example, US energy companies will add a comfortable margin to any price increases and will suddenly be awash in funds for investment as well as nefarious purposes, such as influence buying. Like a bellows, each swing of the economy produces huge winners. I believe the US and Israeli planners of this debacle, together with the allied financiers, have decided that an unprecedental global disruption to energy supplies presents alluring opportunities for privileged players to syphon off more than ever before.
Brian Berletic is correct when he says interrupting Hormuz was planned years ago. He regularly shows the think tank documents that predict US warmaking and influence strategies, for example, causing China to suffer from reduced energy imports.
because that ISN'T THE GOAL, dude
why tf do you keep insisting that it is?
Breakdown of the Iran War by panel of Special Forces vets. The cynical, antiwar sentiment is telling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIwf6EOFwp0
df do specops goons know about war strategy?
i'll answer that for you- absofuckinglutely nothing. they can stick to CQB and how to shoot sleeping children and stfu about everything else
I know what he is Simp. I know what happened and why some of us were fooled including me.
He burst onto the scene not to be taken seriously. The Powers That Be (TPTB) hated him from the get go for spouting populism. Up until that time they had us in a 2 party corral setup which made us easy to control. Very few slipped outside it. To be frank, it worked quite well.
He began to push it tho. Then he started slashing both political parties by divulging inner secrets (War in Iraq). The Plebes (me and you) were enthralled by this. Many of us assumed he must be a positive and allied force.
They decided to let him win. Do you remember the rumor from HRC she said “I knew they would not let me win.” The goal was to make an embarrassment outta him but more importantly Populism. Bernie Sanders was committing the same atrocity from the other side.
Let me know if i should continue
I am curious if Trump will do an invasion. I mean it’s foolish but it would be very interesting.
Depends on what his jew handlers have got on him.
Zion Don is just one of them.
I could be wrong but I simply don't believe the US populace has the stomach for a ground invasion of mainland Iran, Kharg Island perhaps, but the outcome will be the same. The US would no longer be able to claim "no casualties" as Iranian missile impacts or FPV drone footage would flood the internet showing the last pathetic moment of someone's son or daughter succumbing to the inevitable. The bodies will stack up and questions of "what did they die for" will flood politicians inboxes.
Americans love watching that footage when it shows Russians on the receiving end but when it is their own they see, they will abandon the sense that war is like a football game, no cheering only sadness.
America isn't the same as the 60s and 70s, and even back then there was a class/race divide. The AWFULs won't care if its people from the Midwest or South who are killed. Indeed, they would likely celebrate.
no they won't....stfu
I think you seriously underestimate the stomach that Boomers have for war in the Middle East to Israel's advantage. And they hold the political power in the country.
they aren't a majority. and a fuckton of them hate dump and have blue fucking hair
who tf do you think funds the stupidity in the west coast and NYC and shit? BOOMERS
The broad majority of the US population disliked the engagement in the two World Wars, the same is true for Vietnam, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan ....
I also have a prediction. Another comment here mentioned the possibility of a coalition forming made up of Jolani's HTS fighters to attack Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah. I do not think this is a bad prediction, though I wonder if the Lebanese state could survive letting actual head-choppers roam about the Lebanese country-side to kill all the Shia muslims there, but certainly Aoun will find a way if there is one.
To me the most likely thing to happen soon, given the enormous build up in Djibouti, is a campaign against Ansarallah.
Saudi Arabia and its proxies already have a ground force available to join, and domestically Trump declaring a victory by keeping the Bab El Mandeb would be a great PR win and distraction from Hormuz. It fits right in with Trump's short term thinking.
This is not to say I don't think that America will shy away from some kind of ground operation in Western Iran using the kurds, mercs, and whatever Israel could be forced to contribute, just that attacking Ansarallah is much more logistically feasible than hoping that coalition forces could do something in Western Iran given the enormous logistical chain they would need to make any meaningful advances anywhere. Yemen is on paper, much easier.
The Jolanhi Isis brigade are the actual bearded retards
they'll both lose. houthis and hezbollah are simply better fighters
jolani is dogshit and his isis jackasses are dogshit. they only won bc the SAA fled due to their corruption
Sulfur, aluminum, fertilizer, and helium can't be sent via pipeline. Idiots who suggest a pipeline across the region as a solution to bypass the closure of the Strait of Hormuz need to lay off the crackpipe.
The Strait sees a massive amount of non-petroleum cargo traffic going to and from Gulf ports in Kuwait, Iraq, and the emirates. Imports and exports both.
There is no replacement for the Strait of Hormuz, and no one's even going to try an alternative because:
1. It would require hideous amounts of money that would all be wasted the moment peace breaks out, and
2. Iran can destroy both the terminals and any alternate route with their ballistic missiles.
Two alternative petroleum pipelines coming out of the Gulf already exist. One goes to Fujairah on the Oman Sea, and one transits Saudi Arabia all the way to the Red Sea. Their continued existence rests solely on the good will of Iran's missile forces. But as you say, pipelines cannot move many of the Gulf's key products.
BINGO. Helium and petrochemcals neither
this is absurd shit said by idiots, this pipeline crap...anyone who says that should be ridiculed