590 Comments

I think a traitor was executed. A man responsible for the deaths of soldiers in Russian helicopters. The Moon of Alabama is especially hilarious about this. The CIA did it! The Ukrainians did it! Anyone but Putin did it! And he’s alive! And will spring forth soon in the offensive that goes to the gates of Paris!

I think Putin did it. I think Putin was justified. That traitor was supposed to stay out of Russia after his failed coup. And he has been flying all over Russia.

And Putin does not care. Putin will never be able to leave Russia again. There will be threats of arrest or assassination. That is the problem of fucking with a man to a certain level. Putin has Zero Fucks Left To Give.

And by the way? It is good to have a reputation of a man not to cross. I was a very angry, large, and violent man early in both police and the military. That reputation stayed with me. (I was called River Dance on TPD). But oddly, in my later years I rarely had to put the wood on anyone. Tulsa is a small town. Word gets around.

And my ethnic Russian friends are ecstatic. I served with a Russian emigre that was on the police department. He did his tour in the Russian military as a young man before he came here. He would have beat Prizoghin to death with a baseball bat. He was literally incoherent the day of the coup.

So, I respectfully disagree. I think the simple story is the story. This is not a set of Russian nesting dolls. It’s just a dead traitor.

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in fairness to MOA - it is a diverse crowd too... this will probably never be figured out -like 9-11 -ripe for conspiracy theorists, or coincidence theorists...

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They already know. Bomb in the landing gear planted by one of Prigozhin's pilots. He's wanted by FSB.

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good alibi for the fsb if it is not the case... puts fsb in the frame..

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Not buying that. FSB would not killed him. They killed a few Chechen guerrillas in Europe but that’s it.

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I know many Russians and pro-Russian supporters who would beat Shoigu/Gerasimov to death with a stick after sodomizing them for not acting decisively and killing "thousands of our guys" in the early days of the war rather than just flattening Ukraine. They also have alot of questions to them about why Zelensky and Biden still walk. And to them Wagner's coup was a means of getting "justice" for "our dead guys" and they see Wagner as the heroes of Bakhmut who gave the Ukrainian Nazis and their NATO masters a run for their money.

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Well that sounds civilised doesn't it. I'm sure if those people you know were in control of Russia then everything would be just fine. They can act from emotion and flatten Ukraine and no worries, everything will turn out well for Russia, Russia doesn't need to think about its allies, economy, the big picture, nope, not at all. Just act on emotion and stupid strategy, no need to be concerned with any risks. Brilliant...

Why does Biden still walk? Yes Russia should assassinate the President of the United States, seriously idiotic..... You know what the greatest threat to the world is, that a vast majority of people are morons.

Wagner was PR on a grand scale for people of low intellect to cling onto like they were super heroes... The Russian army hasn't been dispatching Ukrainians in industrial quantities, nope all Wagner.... Brilliant mate...

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Well said

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Another nato cuck child saying things like mate. Clowns

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Well stated!

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Simon👍👏👏👏

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Any more around who really suck...

Whuuu Haaa

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Shoigu has zero experience for prosecuting a combat strategy. That's not his job. And both Gerasimov and Shoigu answer to Putin, who did not want to pull a page from NATO's playbook and burn the Bandera territories to the ground.

The world is watching. Putin wants nations to have the better choice, not more of the same.

Priggy was never going to make it to Moscow or even close to Moscow. His ego was writing checks that reality wasn't going to cash.

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Russia and the MOD absolutely do not want to 'flatten' Ukraine and the millions of innocent civilians that reside there.

They openly despise those in Ukraine who wish harm on the ethnic Russian populace that reside in the former Eastern Ukraine territories, newly annexed during this SMO.

A SMO, which has set one of it's public goals as 'demilitarizing Ukraine' - ergo setting up Zones and areas of combat to destroy the service men, 'mercenary' volunteers and military assets of Ukraine.

Ridiculous, knee jerk emotion based reactions belong on the school yard and in low IQ circles.

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The only way to quickly win the war and minimize the damage and casualties is by ironically flattening it. The longer it drags on the more the Ukrainian people are brainwashed to hate Russia. In contrast, the USA flattened Japan during WW2, dropped an atimic bomb on them and now the Japanese love them.

Also, there are no "innocent" civilians if they support Ukraine. In some ways they become combatants, and should be treated as such

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'Also, there are no "innocent" civilians if they support Ukraine. In some ways they become combatants, and should be treated as such.'

Factually Incorrect. Only those tasking up arms against Russia is a 'combatant'.

Why Ukrainians might conceivably 'support' the regime, it's patently asinine to suggest that children and those who want nothing to do with the conflict as well as those Ukraine's who fervently disagree with zelensky, should all be unilaterally 'flattened' because you lack maturity - your absurd way of thinking is why Govts and organized groups can get away with committing acts of genocide and is similar to 'all Americans deserve death because biden is the US President'. Smh.

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Yeah, I also know this kind of Russians and lots of this kind of journo-bloggers. In Russia they're called turbo-patriots , -- meaning pseudo-patriots. They're the equivalent to liberals and neocons in the U.S. Every one of thise journo-bloggers think he is Scipio Africanus or Hannibal , the only difference is none of them have any military education, none of them have any understanding of strategic plans of Russian Center's generals like Gen.Gerasimov ( a genius !) or even tactical movements of Russian Forces, and none of them can comprehent how Minister of Deffence Gen.Shoigu runs the Deffence Industry & production of Russia. All of those turbo-patriotic military " experts " & " advisers" talk just like you , mister Africanus. All of them are in Prigozhin's social media net and, btw, there is the term for it in Russia , it's called prigozhinshina / prigozhinism. Any chance they get , they start selling hype to Russian public, aiming to divide the people , hoping for internal turbulence in Russia, hoping for the civil war in the country. Yeah, I know this kind of Russians very well.

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Preggo wasn't tossed out of the window of a tall building. He wasn't poisoned. He didn't die mysteriously in Africa. The scales of justice have been balanced by his manner of death. When this happens, people lose interest in seeking out those involved, in doxing the hang men.

Anything beyond perceived biblical eye for an eye justice is almost always perceived as morally wrong. Doing so would unbalance the scales.

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Putin won’t care about not being able to leave Russia soon, because odds are most of Europe will be a Russian vassal by the end of the decade.

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From Europe............thanks to the USA

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Europeans are not without blame and complicity.

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Personally I think te Russian government did it and did it right.

Prigozhin was a traitor, no matter how he tried to sell himself in the “patriotic side” he WAS a traitor.

He made a open rebellion against the legitime government of Russia. He killed Russian services men. Since that day he was living in borrowing time.

Additionally I am almost sure that he was connected to other oligarch in pursuing re olyrgachisation of Russia.

This very week the richest oligarch of Russia has been seized of all his assets by corruption (typical oligarch that live abroad)

These 2 things for sure are connected, Russian government is pursuing all aspects of the rebellion.

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You're absolutely right. The "deal" was for Prigozhin to be exiled in Belarus--not to be meddling around in Africa and Russia. And the punishment was meted out with artistic clarity. The simple story is the story.

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Yeah, could be. If it was a bomb planted on the plane, not many non state actors could have done it (surveillance of Priogzhin, getting into the airport with official documents, get near people next to Prigozhin, having that much explosives anyways, having specialists who can build and let it explode remotely, etc.).

But there still are non state actors who can do it. So I am not entirely sure, could be some faction inside the Kremlin, without Putin knowing. There are always actors in big organizations who think they do the best for the leader and the organization if they do stuff like that. Sometimes the leader knows and ignores it or even dislikes it, but lets it slide because of positive stuff the person did for the organization before that. Sometimes he doesn't know it. Hard to say to be honest. Could of course be Putin directly. Who knows. Maybe we will never find out.

Could be Western intelligence also of course. To plant mistrust inside Russias power structure. Could be Ukrainian intelligence, they obviously have many people in Russia. Could be SAS/Navy Seals ordered by MI5/MI6/CIA. Who knows.

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Bomb was planted in the landing gear. One of Prigozhin's pilots is the suspect. He's wanted by FSB.

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founding

Per what source?

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https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1694649720067731822

His personal pilot, Artem Stepanov, is wanted by the FSB. Source is a pro-Russian Telegram channel, Military Informant.

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They think he left the country.

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Was Priggy's personal pilot on the plane?

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Robert, is this you?

https://beyondhighbrow.com/

Also interested in this source. Not reported anywhere I have seen.

Leland

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Yes, that is me! Come on over if you wish. We could always use smart new commenters.

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1694649720067731822

Source looks good. It is pro-Russian from a pro-Russian Telegram account called Military Informant.

Artem Stepanov, Prigozhin's personal pilot is wanted by the FSB.

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Stepanov could have been in touch with US authorities based on court case against US Treasury to end sanctions against him:

https://baza.io/posts/c7b81b83-0a82-4ca3-8dcf-1e5a4352af0f

Translation:

“Pilot Prigozhin” sued the Ministry of Finance and demands to be excluded from the US sanctions lists

The base

July 18, 12:34

The pilot of private jets, Russian Artyom Stepanov, filed a lawsuit against the US Treasury Department because of the sanctions imposed on him. The lawsuit was filed at the end of June [2023] in the District Court of Columbia.

One meeting and thirty minutes of conversation with the founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin radically changed the life of Artyom Stepanov. According to the Russian in the statement of claim, some acquaintances refuse to communicate with him, he cannot take out loans and mortgages, and is also unable to do business with international partners. He experienced all these consequences after he fell under US sanctions for "association with Prigozhin."

--

However, Prigozhin and the team were on their way to see an important person according to this interview:

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27546/4813705/

- How did Prigogine look, how was his mood? This is the first time you've met since the attempted mutiny?

- Yes. He is energetic, thinner, but just as assertive. But these issues that you have just touched on (rebellion - ed.), we practically did not discuss. We parted warmly, and to be honest, I read about this tragedy early this morning. Condolences to the family members of Yevgeny Viktorovich and all the passengers of this flight, and the crew. Somewhere at 17 with a little they took off, already at 18.20 the plane crashed. Therefore, I was one of the ... (the last people he saw.)

We talked with him for 40 minutes, and he hurried to go to the next meeting. Somewhere along the way, he met again, apparently with that person whose name I will not name.

- Do you know this name?

- Of course I know. This is a well-known person in our country who is involved in the administration of our state.

--

And according to this Russian language website:

https://www.rucriminal.info/ru/material/gibel-prigojina-xronika

"Prigogine had something to fear.

A VChK-OGPU source said that Prigozhin's hasty departure to Africa and his rapid return were due to the fact that under the leadership of the Deputy Head of the GRU - Head of the Special Activities Service Andrei Averyanov, a set of measures was being developed to completely replace the Wagner PMC contingent in Africa. It was planned to create and train an army corps of more than 20 thousand people. Prigogine was extremely opposed to this and made every effort to prevent it.

Andrei Averyanov is known for such GRU operations as the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury, the explosion at a warehouse in Vrbetica in the Czech Republic, and the poisoning of the Bulgarian arms dealer Yemelyan Gebrev."

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So he killed himself?

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He's another one of his pilots. He wasn't the one flying the plane. FSB is looking for him right now.

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Or an accident.

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Back in June I was as confused as anyone else about Prig and the coup, but am on record here and elsewhere as saying it was in fact a coup attempt (albeit lamentable) and it took place just after the UAF started their counter offensive. I am also on record as saying if my interpretation of events was correct then Prig was a dead man walking. There are many plausible theories of how he died but the simplest is staring us in the face.

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Seems out of character for Putin to use such a method. He would want to do things lawfully.

SBU? Doubtful as they would not have insider info as to when and on what plane Priggy was travelling. Whoever it was knew all three (Priggy, Utkin and Chekalov) would be on board and which plane they would be on - that all three were killed is beyond coincidental. That fact alone would seem to point to an intelligence agency, most likely a Russian one since all this took place within Russian territory.

Of course, it can't be discounted that it could have been an inside job with a rogue element of Wagner doing the honours - perhaps an insider working with the GRU or FSB. Not likely, but it should be considered.

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Yeah, could be a faction in Wagner also, being angry because of the lying of Prigozhin, allegedly he told the soldiers who partook on the protest/coup they were doing something against Ukrainian army groups or something.

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Both planes could have been prepped and once clarification was made on which plane Prig boarded that device was activated. The other plane returned to the airport and the other device recovered.

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I agree

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It was one of his pilots. Bomb in landing gear. He's wanted by FSB now.

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The pilot couldn't have been working alone (planning, bomb preparation, logistics, etc). It will be interesting to find out who planned all this.

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Probably correct. He was working for somebody. Last seen on a flight to Kamchatka three days ago. Assumption is he’s left the country.

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I have a little more sympathy to Prigozhin the man simply because I think, from all descriptions, that he was a manic-depressive and given the circumstances in which he was acting out -- an international stage, all the world watching -- he was like a loose nuke. Instead of getting help, he got himself booted permanently from the stage. But yep, I agree with your analysis. He couldn't follow the rules, they knew he wouldn't, they had it all planned.

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The simple story is for idiots.

The Russian government has enormous resources; it would surely have chosen a venue different than a few miles from Moscow. Mercouris and Christoforou both accurately note that Progozhin having an accident in Africa or even a "jihadi hit" would be taken in stride.

From my view - this makes it more likely it was a revenge hit by a small group much further down the ladder. Likelihood of say, an angry Russian air force group (angry over pilots killed in the Prigozhin insurrection for which he was not obviously and brutally punished) having contacts in Moscow airports is very high. These contacts in turn, very possible that disaffection against Prigozhin could be found and cultivated. You ain't gonna achieve security if the airport staff itself (some part of it) is out to get you.

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This happened near the Khotilovo military airfield which is halfway between St.Petersburg and Moscow. About 300 km from Moscow, in the middle of nowhere.

The wreckage was riddled with holes compatible with hits from shrapnel. The aeroplane can be seen falling down with a wing torn off.

Everything points to a surface to air antiair missile shot from the airbase.

Hit happened at 10 km altitude so difficult to see the missile contrail. Not much people on the ground at this very rural location to film it anyway.

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Holes in a small plane - not credible that they absolutely must be caused by a missile hit. Among other things, the plane has turbojet engines spinning at enormous RPM. Failure of these engines due to FOD (from say, an explosion) would cause debris damage. The engines on the plane in question were less than 40 feet from the nose tip because the entire plane is 42 feet long.

Furthermore Simplicius article specifically states that the plane was at 30 km - well out of range of anything but a Buk type long range missile. Even 10 km is not reachable by hand held missiles because of parallax and the plane's speed.

Next: the plane having a missing wing just before it hits the ground (2000 feet or less) is not relevant. Any plane that has lost structural integrity (again, for example, due to an explosion) is likely to lose parts especially if it is going high speed. Kind of like how water has the softness of concrete at high speed...

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I haven't gone back checking the article, but he probably specified 30,000 feet altitude there, which is common cruise altitude for a jet aeroplane.

Obviously my mentioning of the incident happening close to a military airfield implies they shot at it with something more robust than hand-held missiles.

Turbines don't just explode like grenades with blades acting as shrapnel if a bomb detonates a bit next to them inside the fuselage. 9/11 "combustion of the jet fuel caused the main support steel beam of the skyscraper to melt and collapse" eery vibes felt here.

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Turbines are relatively thin metal blades - blades which disintegrate when they are moving at high speed and encounter even soft objects like birds. Jet engine blades spin at 3000 rpm or more - this is VERY fast.

Here is an airplane dude talking about his bird strike experiences:

https://www.quora.com/What-happens-to-an-aircraft-engine-after-a-bird-strike

"When I was based at Clark Air Base, Philippines, I was on the flight line during a war game exercise, and a friend of mine from college ran past me. Hey! I caught up to him as he was congratulating a fellow fighter pilot for surviving a bird strike.

Whatever bird it was had struck just to the right of the cockpit, just to the left of the right-hand jet intake. The airspeed was, IIRC, supersonic. The bird had gone THROUGH a half-dozen solid bulkheads before disintegrating. If the pilot were flying just a foot or two to the right, his head would have been torn off.

...

A good sized bird went through the engine of an FB-111 light bomber when I was stationed in Germany. The whole engine shelled out. That is, the bird broke off a blade, then that blade broke some more blades, and the damage was instantly massive. That’s why I like airplanes with two engines."

These were caused by squishies - birds. Now consider what happens when you inject metal - say a piece of landing gear - into said jet engine.

And yes, 9/11 jet fuel combustion does cause structural steel to weaken. Not melt, but weaken - and that's good enough especially if there is insufficient margin due to construction fuckery.

Proof is very straightforward: bits of missiles, pictures of missiles being from the air field, that kind of thing. Speculation based on clearly uninformed analysis = junk.

As for 9/11 - if you don't understand that heat can absolutely cause the strength of structural steel to significantly decrease without actually melting - especially under load, that's your problem not mine.

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Turbines are not blades, they contain blades. Turbines are made out of a heavy steel nickel alloy resisting the highest temperatures of air flowing out the combustion chamber (> 1k Celsius) without deforming and with added moving parts.

A bird is combustible and when entering the jet engine it alters the airflow symmetry. Heat goes where it is not suppose to (we are talking of air compressed, heated and then expanded at at least hundreds of Celsius degrees at every stage inside the engine - peaking in the combustion chamber at ~1000-1500 C degrees) and causes moving parts failures, but definitely nothing exploding.

Also an explosion in the fuselage won't cause metal debris inside the engines, placed to the sides of it... the fuselage is made of aluminium so it's light, also if exploding will tend to fall downward with gravity... the engines eat only air directly in front of them... air to the side cannot enter because of different conditions of pressure and velocity... only birds can be sucked in in the direct trajectory, but flying at 10 km cruise altitude helps with avoiding them.

About 9/11, clearly heat in the beam cannot increase after the crash because it's open to environment conditions outside that act as a heat sink... a basic heat partial differential equation situation with fixed pressure and temperature boundary conditions.

If a cylinder of aluminium filled with gasoline (an aeroplane) can destroy the biggest skyscraper on Earth, then why buildings in Ukraine hit by infinitely more damaging ballistic and cruise missiles, FABs and the like take substantial damage, but are still standing after the hits? If you are not acquainted with the Physics behind impact phenomena, just ponder over this simple question.

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c1ue

A sober and possible reflection on what happened.

WBJ

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“The Moon of Alabama is especially hilarious about this.”

Consider that you too are “hilarious about this”. Any speculation at this juncture absent substantive evidence either way is purely speculative, and one individual’s conspiracy theory is as valid/invalid as the next

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They already have an MO and a suspect.

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At the time of my comment they did not, so my reply remains valid.

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Damn... you suck!

WBJ

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Sorry, mean of me to make you cry.

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nwwoods

Sorry too, my comment was not meant for you. The comment traffic was pretty heavy so it got put in the wrong line up ... my guess.

So from now on I will address my comment to anyone properly.

WBJ

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:) no harm done

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Given the timing, I think he got a fair trial - he did get to appeal to Putin - but in the end he was what Putin said he was originally - a traitor. I think plane crashes are a common way security insiders are done in. The US did the same thing with the entire Ukraine Internal Security forces about a year and a half ago - they went down in a helicopter. It reminds me very much of how the mob takes care of things, which is perhaps natural for both sides. But then again, it's also possible they are alive. I think it the equivalent of an inside security hit at 87%. In the world of spy versus spy, it is all percentages.

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Putin will need to go to the Hague to accept apologies and tribute from the EU when this is over and the morons who voted for the morons running the EU realize what they did

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I am sure glad we never crossed paths. You lay a hand on me or mine and I will reach out and touch you.

This is the problem with some of the police in America, they usually hire easily triggered high school bullies with way low IQs; or those who have been bullied. Those bullies never remember that their job is not that of a Judge, Jury or Executioner. There job is to observe and apprehend regardless if the man was a traitor or not.

Also, a great deal of US police trainers have been trained in Israel. Look at any photo of Israeli soldiers subduing a Palestinian kid and you will see the Knee on the Neck technique. These Israeli trained trainers come back with their idol worship of how great the Israelis are only to dress up with fatigues, equip as if in a combat zone and then treat Americans as if they are under occupation. Some of their names are "blue Rambo" and "Wana be Navy Seal". Steroids and its side effects, one of which is aggression, are part of the culture. This practice of being infected by Israeli occupation personnel has been trimmed back quiet a bit, but it still happens in big cities.

Policing used to be an art and a service. It will never improve unless an associate degree is required from candidates, preferably an associate degree in Law with an emphasis on the US constitution. This one requirement will improve IQ across the board and reduce municipalities' exposure to Civil Rights violation multi million Dollar lawsuits.

A trully powerful man commands his anger and desires. Also remember, old age, is when a long forgotten vendetta might just jump up and bite your head off.

I asked a retired officer once if he had shot anyone? He said: I am grateful, I didn't. I asked: how come? I trained my self to only point my gun if I was going shoot. How many times, a group of US cops, surrounded a knife wielding man suffering a mental brake down, with their weapons drawn to the disrespect of any combat veteran. Almost always.

Policing is another aspect of American institutions that has been deliberately destroyed from without and within.

To avoid being remiss, I have had the honor to have known some police officers whom I admire and proud to call my friends.

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Out here on the Left Coast, I had full faith you'd drop something by nightfall regarding this. My first instinct was/is NATO/Ukraine, for there's zero chance the Ukies could do this solo. The timing of this after Prig was down in Africa is just too quick and crazy. That's my initial angle. But I'm no authority at all, that's why I dwell in this here Garden!

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Another left coaster here. I also am pleased that I looked to see if STT (hope you don't mind that) would give an initial analysis. Pretty sure Alexander Mercouris will be pleased to see this when he wakes up in London in a few hours. He maybe reading now with his coffee.

Sweet dreams

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Yes I'm looking forward to The Duran's take too

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Mercouris talked about this already extensively in his live stream yesterday, and Christoforou in his as well.

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You may correct.

Did you consider time zone in my response to the other left coaster? I did not see it at the time of this writing. I listened to both when I woke up after I posted this. It's still 24.08.23 where I am and will be for several hours.

I don't want to sound unkind, but are you always this petty?

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Yes, I did consider time zone. Mercouris talked about Prigozhin in his live stream on locals 24 hours before I posted, and 12 hours before you did.

The live stream was on August 23 literally hours after the news first broke out:

Live Streamed August 23, 2023 4:06 PM

(from the Locals video that is still available)

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"My first instinct was/is NATO/Ukraine, for there's zero chance the Ukies could do this solo." That was my first instinct..

"several corpses without heads, inside and away from the cabin" sounds like a bomb was planted under the seat. Interesting fact with suicide bombers, their head gets blown clean off and strangely has very little damage apart from black soot, however, they would be recognizable.

Someone said Prigozhin was a dead man walking. Judging from his skin pallor in the recent "African" video, he looks like he could be suffering from cancer or liver disease. And why would he be dressed like that in temperatures of 50 degrees?

The so-called coup sounds like classic a maskirovka: https://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_062723_hr2.mp3

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/maskirovka-the-hidden-key-to-soviet-victory/

Operation Berezino

Promoted to full colonel in the German Army and an award of the prestigious Knight’s Cross were significant accomplishments, even in the waning days of World War II. Yet, Lt. Col. Heinrich Scherhorn managed to get the promotion and the Knight’s Cross while languishing well behind the lines in a Soviet prisoner of war camp, and his promotion was fully aided and abetted by his Soviet captors.

The Soviets had deceived the Germans into believing that Scherhorn had rallied a group of some 1,800 German soldiers who were behind enemy lines in Belorussia and surrounded near the Berezino River in the summer of 1944. The group was reportedly making a determined yet desperate attempt to reach German lines. The report was based, in part, on truth. However, Soviet forces had earlier destroyed the unit near Minsk, with Scherhorn and 200 troops taken captive. The Soviets seized upon the opportunity, knowing that the Germans already believed that some Wehrmacht soldiers were stranded in the forests near Berezino.

Before Operation Berezino was over nine months later, the hard-pressed Germans had been convinced to fly 39 sorties to the fictitious fighters, dropping 13 radio sets and 225 cargo packs consisting of ammunition, food, medicine, and more than two million rubles, according to Robert W. Stephan, a former CIA counterintelligence specialist. In addition, 25 German agents and intelligence officers were rounded up in the successful deception, adds Stephan, author of Stalin’s War: Soviet Counterintelligence Against The Nazis, 1941-1945.

As the Germans slowly took the bait, the Soviets further added to the ruse, with the trapped unit supposedly growing nearly 40 percent in size, including 16 officers—all quietly captured earlier—and 884 wounded. This supposed growth, in turn, created the need for even more medicine, ammunition, and supplies.

The German sense of duty, and the potential political and military value of rescuing 2,500 troops trapped behind Soviet lines, proved stronger than the suspicions surrounding the operation,” reports Stephan. Despite some serious doubts and rapidly depleting resources, the Germans continued to supply food and ammunition to the nonexistent unit. Whenever the Germans asked detailed questions about various officers supposedly working with Scherhorn, the Soviets would isolate them and obtain the information requested by the Germans.

Luck certainly played a part when a German intelligence officer landed on a primitive airfield to meet Scherhorn. The excited Oberleutnant Barfeldt jumped out of the aircraft a bit too early as it was taxiing, and a propeller blade decapitated him. The rattled crew quickly recovered the body and flew off, perhaps saving Operation Berezino from being uncovered.

The Soviets invested considerable resources to Operation Berezino, including 32 intelligence officers and more than 250 servicemen. These included high-ranking Leonid Aleksandrovich Eitingon, who had earlier coordinated the assassination of Leon Trotsky, Stalin’s political rival. A number of POWs were pressed into service to create a convincing camp, complete with dugouts and tents to further convince the Germans.

Adding even greater authenticity to the troops’ predicament, Soviet counterintelligence convinced the Germans that some of the planned airdrops needed to be postponed because of approaching enemy troops. The Soviets even managed, according to reports, to have the cooperative Scherhorn initially talk with recently dropped German parachutists who radioed back that everything was as stated. The fresh Germans were then captured by NKVD (Soviet Intelligence) security troops hidden nearby.

The Soviet deception skills had developed to the point that they were able to continue the ruse for nine months while convincing their wily opponents to supply ammunition and food desperately needed elsewhere.

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When a plane falls from 30000 feet, necks tend to snap off.

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Thank you - excellent as usual. And -- a question:

Ukro-Nazi drones are repeatedly attacking Moscow. From WHERE -- where/how - are they launched??

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author

We don't know with 100% certainty, as it depends on the type of drone as well. The larger ones hitting Moscow recently would seem like they'd be launched from Ukraine simply because smuggling something that large into Russia to launch it from within would be difficult. However, the reason I caution on this is because we have specific acknowledgment from Ukraine/West sources that Ukraine also has agents with drones they smuggle into Russia, which they launch from Russian territory. Most likely this latter type are the ones they hit industrial plants with because you can cause a lot of damage to an oil facility for instance just by launching a small drone with an explosive from nearby and guiding it into the fuel storages, etc.

So we know for a fact they do have people with small drones inside Russia launching them all the time. But the much larger 'Beaver' drone (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bober_(drone)) they're using to strike Moscow with has a lesser chance of being launched from within Russia though it's possible, as they can perhaps smuggle it in disassembled in parts and then assemble it in Russia.

Of course it would seem easier to just launch it from Ukraine but that's the crux fo the whole argument is that they should theoretically be getting shot down if they're flying all the way from the Ukrainian border. However, using sophisticated U.S./NATO satellite mapping systems, the likely explanation is they're mapping flightpaths around the edges of Russian air defense zones, into 'deadzones' where the drone won't be detected. Unfortunately, for a smallish drone that flies very low, the detection range for them is extremely short simply owing to the physics of radar horizon. Something that's only 50-100ft off the ground can only be seen from a few kilometers at the most because radar travels in a straight line and can't see "over the horizon", etc.

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Speaking of drones attacking Moscow, did you all see this video circulating on Twitter, purportedly posted by Ukraine and promising a massive drone strike on Russia to commemorate the anniversary of Ukraine's independence on Aug 24?

https://twitter.com/PatriaeFilius/status/1694526418502234184

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and isn't that sad? it's like a juvenile delinquent heading off to reform school who toilet papers the neighbor's house in revenge.

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Many, many thanks “Simplicius” -- I hope we will learn more how it is done.

By now Russian authorities have a lot of these drones and have analyzed them extensively by type, size, etc., etc.

Thanks once again.

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Ukraine's luckiest drone was travelling to Moscow when it accidentally encountered a jet... :)

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Nice one, Mike🤣

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"Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive."

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Very comprehensive article Mr December. It was like having all my thoughts and then some mirrored back to me . This has to be Russian military with or with out Mr Putins knowledge . The SBU is very unlikely to have been able to carry this off . I remember Andrei Martyanov saying ,at the time of the coup, that the military would not forgive Prigozhin for the deaths of those pilots and that he was a marked man .He was a traitor and such is their fate.

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Even if the SBU managed to rig a case of "wine" with explosives etc., how would they get that onto a tarmac on a Moscow airport, past security, detection etc.? Who knows, anything's possible but simply unlikely, at least one would think.

Honestly if this happened anywhere else I would be almost certain that FSB/Russian military were responsible, the only thing that gives me slight pause is the obvious nature of the hit right near Moscow, which has typically been MI6 M.O.

With that said, given that Prigozhin may be viewed as an enemy/traitor, perhaps Putin/Russia don't care at all where he dies. Remember, it was Putin himself that famously said he would kill the Chechen warlords even "on the toilet" if he had to.

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If you recall in the Pentagon Papers, the US said that it has "almost fully" infilitrated the Russian MOD/command. I do not think it impossible that they ordered their own agents to assassinate Prigozhin - I think it unlikely but it is a possibility.

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The problem with that sort of argument is that it presupposes some sort of magical omnipotence of the US/CIA to infiltrate the MOD. If they had such power, why hasn't Putin himself been assassinated by now? Why waste such a thing on a relatively lesser player, and one who had already been essentially sidelined from the Ukrainian game board?

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There are reports that there have been attempts on Putin in the past, but they failed.

As for why Putin has not been assassinated - there could be many reasons. For example, Putin is excellent for American strategic interests as they know that someone who would replace him would be an ultranationalist with more hardline policies towards the United States. We have to remember, that Putin is a liberal and was part of Yeltsin's gang back in the day - his more relatively "hardline" positions are a result of necessity and his miscalculation in declaring a "multipolar world" in 2008. This is just one theory. Could be entirely wrong.

Another reason, is that while Putin has loyal men close to him that protect him, that does not exclude the possibility that both the remainder of the FSB/MOD has been infiltrated and the loyalty of Putin's men prevents assassinations.

Another possibility is that it is not in the interest of US assets within the FSB/MOD to kill Putin as this would put their own positions in peril

As you can see there are multiple possibilities that have a certain amount of likelihood.

It is very much the same question I ask myself - why has Zelensky/Zaluzhniy/Budanov not been assassinated? This would be a big blow to Ukrainian morale if done in a public manner. Why has Biden or US officials not have been hit by a accidental missile strike that "missed"? Why does Putin not publish secret and embarassing US documents that would reduce their reputation/undermine their effort to support Ukraine - much like Stalin did on the eve of WW2 to discredit the Chamberlain and the Brits?

Perhaps similar reasons play a role in this too.

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Those are all good points, it is inscrutable. I do think that inside the more reasonable minds of the CIA they probably recognize that offing Putin would just lead to a worse outcome; the whole personalizing the war by portraying him as some sort of mad dictator is a classic psy-op aimed at the American people, not aimed at rational minds capable of discerning propaganda.

Another question unrelated to my reply is why Wagner would be sloppy in putting their top 3 commanders in the same plane. Seems like amateurish opsec. Which makes me think the "faked death" scenario might not be so farfetched.

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It is quite possible that the three commanders flew together as Utkin played a double role of "bodyguard" to Prigozhin as well as commander. In addition, it is possible they use those plane flights to hash out various plans. Finally, as far as I understand the intelligence that Wagner got for its operations, came from their connections to the GRU. The GRU/FSB are in constant competition and it might have wrankled the FSB to have GRU "winning" internally. This "tension" between the GRU and KGB/FSB has been present since the Soviet era but at the time it was deftly managed by the Soviet military command. It is entirely possible the MOD wanted Prigozhin gone and the FSB saw an opportunity to "help out" the MOD and weaken the GRU and "restore balance" and eliminated Prigozhin. Add to that US assets having infilitrated the FSB, it could also help out their Western curators as well. This accounts why it was done so publically near Moscow.

It is possible it was done without Putin's blessing - many things seem to be done in Russia without Putin's blessing - this is why calling him a "tsar" or an "autocrat" makes no sense.

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Assassinating Putin might lead to WW3. Or so I read here (I think) once. Not the way the game is played. And Z is alive IMHO because he is the gift that keeps giving as far as Russia is concerned.

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Cause there is still a chance both sides are part of a grand script, written by Schneerson in 1994, decimating the slavs so great Khazaria can arise and Isreal being relocated. One of Zelenskys Advisors also mentioned Isreal 2.0 on being the past Ukraine. Time will tell, Chabads are more powerful than most think or know.

Even RFK jr visited Schneersons grave 3 weeks ago, just a requirement to kiss some feet if you want to have a chance in the election.

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US institutions and agencies have turned to shit. There is no way the US has the competency to infiltrate the Kremlin.

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That could be true - but the US unfortunately maintains huge military and intelligence assets abroad. Moreover, it still maintains the illusion of a "desirable place to live". Just today I saw an article that talked about how Chinese citizens would try to enter the US as illegals through South America to try to get into the US because they thought life "would be better", while objectively speaking life in Tier 2 cities is better than the best US cities. Why is this? To many US still maintains that lustre/mythology around itself and this mistaken comparison can still motivate people to serve it.

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It seems unlikely. The same pentagon papers confirmed that the US has virtually NO intelligence within its puppet state of ukraine and use such laughable public "intel" as oryx to determine casualties in the SMO.

The US turned away from HUMINT 30 years ago because it was so massively advanced in the field of SIGINT and other technological espionage fields. Now, 30 years later, the rest of the world has caught on and caught up in the tech field and US intel is basically blind at this point unless it is engaging against utterly stupid 3rd world goat herders with zero signal discipline.

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While you are right, I'd argue that the US doesn't need HUMINT within Ukraine for a number of reasons:

1. Ukraine is a vassal state in the best traditions of vassals from the ancient era - as a result it can be mostly trusted to follow US policy/provide accurate intelligence when needed

2. HUMINT still plays a big role for the CIA - this is evidenced by how the CIA got embarassed by China breaking into its private message network after Chinese operatives stole a CIA assets laptop a few years ago. Besides, there were plenty of articles before the war about how the CIA was preparing Ukrainian snipers to resist the Russians.

3. I do agree that SIGINT is much stronger for the CIA than HUMINT, the US maintains "attractiveness" by momentum such that many people still seek to work/immigrate to the US due to the mythology it is able to create about itself. This generates a great amount of HUMINT and the CIA doesn't really need to cultivate assets that actively.

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... or Israel ...

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I follow a guy who has been to the Darien Gap (Panama) countless times. He's former Green Beret and now war correspondent. He's been going back a forth for over a year. One thing I am confident in repeating is that the Chinese migrants stand out from the rest. They seem to take different (perhaps easier) routes They all seem to have quite a bit of cash on hand in the realm of several thousand dollars each.

Something about that doesn't make sense to me. Like I said very confident in Michael Yon's story. He can be a bit colorful in his predictions sometimes but this is just reporting facts. It's troubling to me because I would assume if they had access to that kind of money doubt a Chinese City would be too bad to reside in. Not even certain their Govt would allow a successful citizen to up and leave, but NOT sure about that.

Some guy (no clue) wrote a pretty descriptive post couple months back. Saw about 5 recent Chinese migrants at a rifle range. Only one of the men spoke any English and very little. However at least 3 of them had already had their Florida CCW (concealed carry) license. Again, this is all hearsay and its possible they were avid firearm enthusiasts. But it does seem unlikely they would be so well connected with their state license and have their own AR platform rifles after being here such a short time. The guy who spoke English said several months.

Many any of the paranoid types think they're planning an invasion and/or the migrants will attack. I am not amongst them. However I do believe there is a possibility of a flash attack on our power grid infrastructure. The actor Dennis Quaid just made a movie about how vulnerable our grid really happens to be. And no I do not have faith our government would figure it out. We are ruled by power hungry egomaniacs that have become both incompetent and mad simultaneously. This might explain the power grid scenario as well. Maybe they're are here to stop the US from initiating a nuclear first strike on the mainland?

I know it sounds far fetched but to my understanding it really wouldn't take much to cause quite a stir. All you really need to do is have few dozen men spread strategically throughout the country and know what to shoot at (in a substation). Certain transformers are weeks to replace in bulk and already on backorder from the manufacturer, which just so happens to be in China haha.

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Interesting stuff, although one reason why you might be a cashed up Chinese undocumented migrant who then later is well connected in Florida is that they were crooked businessmen, suspect members of the party or military who got out just before the hammer fell. Although that's an excellent cover story for a double agent so who can really know ?

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Even though I’m just a civilian, I’m quite confident that US intelligence has zero insight into Kremlin / MOD decision-making. The reason I’m sure is, we keep getting surprised.

Total shock in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and successfully supported Donbas militias. Total shock in 2008 when Georgia decided to crush those uppity Ossetians and wound up with Russian tanks a few minutes’ drive from Tbilisi.

Total shock in Feb 2022, when - even as the Ukronazis intensified their shelling of Donbas in obvious preparation for a NATO-backed assault - at least one senior western intel official was physically in Kiev when the invasion began.

Total cluelessness thereafter, with western officials gibbering that Russia ‘failed to achieve its Day 1 objectives’ when it was plain they had no clue what Russia’s Day ‘Any’ objectives were.

That is, they didn’t understand the distinction between the SMO - which initially combined elements of recon-in-force and economy-of-force operations, with few outright full-on asssults - and a plain old invasion intent on conquest.

Then there was the utterly bizarre, demonstrably absurd ‘Putin’s not well’ chorus that began as soon as the Russians stepped off.

More recently, Seymour Hersh’s US intel sources are telling him we have no clue what’s going on, that we rely mostly on Ukrainian input. Obviously that’s an overstatement: There are lots of NATO advisers not far behind the front lines.

But how much insight do they really have? How much of whatever insight they possess makes it from the military to the US intel community? And given the latter’s total corrupt careerism, how much of that reaches Langley? How much of THAT is then suppressed because it’s politically unacceptable?

If the west had a hand in Prigozhin’s death - as I suspect they did - it’s likely because they approached him last year and sponsored his June coup attempt.

But the coup failed, he outlived his usefulness, and he could have embarrassed western intel with revelations of their contacts. So he had to die.

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WRT Chinese sneaking across the southern border (actually I guess they don't have to sneak anymore), they are also characterized as "spies" and "saboteurs" depending on who's doing the talking. IOW pure propaganda.

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No way no one serious believe such papers.

CIA infiltrating the Russian MoD is hilarious

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Eh, even in leaks the claim that CIA has fully penetrated any organization except US allies and western media needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. It has never been very good at such operations.

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I make no claims of special knowledge. Putin is capable and justified based on Prigozhin's actions (and Utkn's). On the other hand, so is most of the West - particularly the US and UK.

What doesn't make great sense is the timing. Russia is in need of strength and stability during BRICS and in Africa. Wagner was a key part of establishing that stability. Offing the leadership of Wagner during BRICS while events in Africa are fluid, does not help Russian geopolitical interests.

There is a lot to unpack. Sometimes the target of opportunity is the one you take when it presents itself. This could be a simple story of squashing betrayal. It could just as well be an effort to destabilize Russia.

Time will tell... maybe.

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As I don't expect that you will read all comments here, I want to copy my main comment here as you paraphrase Puntin's words about Chechen warlords, and I would love to know what you think about my thinking.

"I don't know what organization or who did it. Let me say this:

Putin said you have to answer to the "law and the people" and if he is supposed to be someone who means what he says, then, imho, you just cannot take someone out like this. You get him in front of a court. Full stop.

Secondly, not wanting to forgive something also doesn't automatically mean blowing their plane up while in the air. I think I can't forgive betrayal either, but the punishment is not to kill that someone.

Thirdly, he told them, if they stand down, they will be pardoned, which is what they did. If Putin's words are to mean something he cannot take them out like that.

That said, I am not saying it wasn't Putin. But if he was, then my opinion of Putin changes dramatically. This is not how you lead a country lawfully and with integrity."

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Inside job?

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Prigozhin’s pilot planted a bomb on the plane.

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"how would they get that onto a tarmac on a Moscow airport, past security, detection etc.?"

Doesn't have to be the SBU.

The people killed by Wagner during their insurrection were Russian pilots. Russian pilots certainly are part of the ecosystem/social circle around Moscow airport. It is not a stretch to think that some airport workers (who may or may not be ex Russian air force) would share Russian air force anger over the blood on Prigozhin's hands as well as the outrage that Prigozhin was not brought to justice for this. Unless Prigozhin was cleaning, fueling, inspecting, loading baggage, maintaining hangar security, etc etc in Moscow airport himself - there are innumerable opportunities to stick a bomb on board or on the plane - say on an engine. Or do something during routine maintenance. Or having someone slip something in/on while guards are distracted. etc etc. Airport workers are also in position to accurately determine which plane Prigozhin is actually on.

Just saying.

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This happened near the Khotilovo military airfield which is halfway between St.Petersburg and Moscow. About 300 km from Moscow, in the middle of nowhere.

The wreckage was riddled with holes compatible with hits from shrapnel. The aeroplane can be seen falling down with a wing torn off.

Everything points to a surface to air antiair missile shot from the airbase.

Hit happened at 10 km altitude so difficult to see the missile contrail. Not much people on the ground at this very rural location to film it anyway.

Everything points to a straightforward assassination ordered by the Kremlin, in order to make Prigozhin an example of what happens if subordinates try to cross them.

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You don't shit where you sleep. Russians did not need to do this inside Russia.

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You wrote that you didn't think Putin would take down Progozhin in such a public way. Possible.

But also possible that he wanted to send a clear message.

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I agree, I actually edited in a new line a few moments ago of that same slant where I said that it's possible this was actually done deliberately to coincide with the Surovikin dismissal to send a message to all potential traitors in the future.

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Putin, coincidentally or intentionally, was speaking about revenge at that commemoration in Kursk. Though he was speaking of Hitler.

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Would not taking him down for treason in a public court of law achieve the same message? There are fates worse than instant death...

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Good point, but there are obvious problems in slapping the cuffs on a man who is at the center of a massive private army and media organization. Knocking on his door with a warrant in your pocket is unlikely to be effective.

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He met privately with Putin post-"coup" to explain his behavior. Nothing to have prevented Putin's security from stopping him right then & there.

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That doesn't show that Putin could have safely arrested Prigozhin then or later. It could have been that he wanted to know where they stood, then concluded that they couldn't be removed by legal means and waited for the best opportunity to eliminate them permanently.

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I spent 5 years as ground service at a business jet only airport FBO (where you get gas, the lav dumped and the carpet vacuumed between flights). I can easily put a bomb on a plane and if you dont see me and dont have sniffer dogs you wont find it and i will get away with it.

That is what i assume happened here.

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so who do you think put the bomb their then?

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My first choice is poland, they are a bit bent out of shape about wagner and generally somewhat insane.

Most of these size planes have a lav dump outlet thats takes about a 5 or 6 inch hose, push the explosives up the pipe, shut the spring loaded lower flap and then the cover.

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To me the question wouldn't be how to get it on the plane, which is the easy part, but how they'd get it into an airport, past security. Even ground crew have to go through security checks, I assume

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If it’s anything like US airports you could just toss the package over the fence and pick it up once you get past security.

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Bwahahahahaha true.

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This is why it was an FSB/MOD job is most likely. It seems very likely that Prigozhin was eliminated not even by Putin's order, but rather by a "rogue" General in the MOD/FSB tasked by their respective commanders.

After all, I do believe that Wagner was an "unofficial" arm of the GRU (I am basing this on the previous roles that Wagner commanders had within the GRU) - which explains how it got access to Putin, prisons, Surovikin, ammo, Africa, etc.

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i never worked at a all airline airport, so i cant say. But the one airport i worked at where i had a biometric id card. Iris scans to get to the baggage etc, all they checked was the id card. usually against your fingerprint for the mobile checker, or the iris in the terminal. But ive been out of that line of work for 15 years now, could all be different in Moscow.

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Prighozin’s pilot planted the bomb!

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he had a death wish? unlikely..

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It was one of his pilots apparently. Not the one on the plane. Another one of his pilots. FSB is looking for him right now. Bomb was planted in the landing gear.

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Exactly. Now add in very possible connections in Moscow airports with Russian air force - angry over literal Russian blood on Prigozhin's hands.

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Two months ago I wrote, "the hammer will come down." Then I was shocked by Putin's liberalism. Not any more.

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Zelynsky will end in similar circumstances... a schrodinger departure when their usefulness or the money has run out.

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Putin should take revenge by sending FAB 500's to every rada members home tonight.

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I dunno, Ghani and Saakashvili are both alive.

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Each chapter is very suspenseful. Each moment, each breath. At times I must disengaged. The Great Work continues. The wheel turns; I myself have but a few spins on the blue marble left. Heaviness, loss, deep bone marrow grief. Being of elder years I am not one to sway; steady she goes. Perhaps attributed to all those years floor nursing; especially OR Room Number 10; the morgue. God will guide, Lightspeed. 💙🇷🇺❤️

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thanks simplicius.. it's complicated and although everyone is entitled to an easy answer - there are no easy answers here - as i see it.

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One thing to note is the Western corporate media is openy gloating - IMMEDIATELY. Almost no surprise. What is ALSO noteworthy is that there is a studied avoidance of even remotely 'trying to claim the credit', when it is obvious that if they had nothing to do with the assassination, they would have claimed it as their 'Great Victory for Ukrainian Liberation'.

Knowing how Western PR works, and adding it all together - it smells very much like a Western payback for the fake "coup" that uncovered MI6's operation in Ukraine.

BTW, the events in Georgia was that the Bush Regime persuaded the Georgians to attack South Ossetia, catching Putin by surprise, and the RMoD rushed reinforcements to the area to protect the civilians.

Later, Putin arrived at the Olympics and immediately barged in to confront Chimpy, who - without his 'brains' around, simply took it, and never annoyed Russian interests again.

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In 2008, Bush was nearing the end of his presidency and it looked as if he would be replaced by Obama. Neocons affected great panic, fearing that peace might break out at any moment.

We all know how that ended.

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Excellent work again, remember Putin said there was 1 thing he does not forgive. A TRAITOR

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Wagner was perhaps the strongest military force in the world. It consisted of ex-spetsnaz soldiers discharged at one point or another. These are soldiers who got a "new lease at life" and where able to serve their country in an unofficial light. Indeed, I would argue that Wagner itself was an extension of the Russian State and was partially controlled from the MOD with individual commanders on the ground given more control (indeed Wagner commanders are for the most part ex-Spetsnaz/GRU themselves. There is only one man who was not special forces, and he has been fighting in Donbass since 2014 but then joined Wagner and served in Syria before being promoted) to act according to the situation on the ground. Since many Wagner commanders are very experienced (see below for more on this), it would make sense to give them more autonomy to act in Russia's strategic interests abroad.

Another and very unique strength, of Wagner was its entirely meritocratic military structure. A man could go from a trooper to a general thanks to his intelligence and valor. This is an echo of the ancient method of waging war. This has not been a fixture of military forces since the medieval era/pirate era. Indeed, discipline was harsh as well. Breach of discipline in Wagner was met with death. This generates both an espirits de corps, plus motivates a man to great deeds - indeed as we saw with accounts of Roman soldiers storming enemy positions, each man would strive to outdo the other for the accolades that it would award him, both in terms of the ability to boast, male hierarchy and the real world tangible benefits that it would net him. This is very much the case in Wagner too and part of the reason why they are able to accomplish difficult tasks like the Siege of Bakhmut with a numerically inferior force.

The combination of these factors created a well disciplined and deadly force, going back to the military tradition of the Roman Republic/early Roman Empire.

To continue with the theme of the Roman Republic/early Roman Empire - Prigozhin and the various PMCs that Russia had - heavily reminded me of how the Repbulican era had many consuls with their troops exclusively loyal to them. This was both a strength in the Roman system, as it allowed Consuls to compete and win accolades for military feats, but it also caused problems like the famous instability of the Roman system that required an iron fist to rule.

While Prigozhin broke discipline, "cast the dice" and "crossed the Rubicon" with his forces much like Julius Caesar did (Rome's own Prigozhin) in Rome 2000 years ago but unlike Caesar he never took it to the end. By not taking it to the end, Prigozhin signed his own death warrant. It is not a question in my mind that Prigozhin was assassinated by Putin or even by orders of Shoigu (acting outside of Putin's knowledge) to eliminate an opponent.

Simplicus, I think you miss an important point - when Prigozhin "crossed the Rubicon" with his forces, there was great support from the population for his actions - hence the reactions of people within Rostov or the military block posts letting him through. It was only after Prigozhin did not take things to the end did people sigh in disappointment, "wake up" and disapprove of his actions - as usually happens with the loser. I would be willing to wager that support for Shoigu and Gerasimov gang is lower than that of Prigozhin - would be interesting to see polls in this regard. Indeed, if rumors are to be believed it was Gerasimov who screwed over Wagner in Syria when they "fought the Americans" by not mediating the situation over phone with them and leaving Wagner hanging without the support/reinforcements they were promised. If US media is to be believed, this resulted in the deaths of 200 Wagner boys and could have been the start of Prigozhin's hostility to Gerasimov.

Surovikin/Mizintsev should have replaced Shoigu/Gerasimov as heads of the Ukraine campaign/MOD as this would have been the meritocratic thing to do, given their performance in Bakhmut vis a vis Gerasimov's poor command earlier in the SMO. In the Roman Republic/early Empire, both Shoigu and Gerasimov would have been executed for their poor performance/errors and rightfully so, while Surovikin/Mizintsev would have been rewarded. For Putin, it seems like doubling down on Shoigu/Gerasimov is a political act rather than what is better for the military as a whole. I still do not remain convinced that these men are the best the Russian army has to offer.

I believe that the death of Prigozhin will see an end to Wagner, and I do not believe this a good thing as Wagner influence would have been good to increase the meritocracy of the Russian Army rather than having it be simply another rigid state institution.

While being an oligarch himself, Prigozhin was a "persona non-grata" to the remainder of the Russian oligarchs - I remember hearing that he was not frequently invited to the parties/social events of the other oligarchs and when he did come they were extremely wary of him. As a result, Prigozhin represented a sort of countering force on the remainder of the Oligarchs and balanced them out - Prigozhin's death is a huge blow to countering the strength of the oligarchs within Russia itself.

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"Wagner was perhaps the strongest military force in the world."

You've got some serious issues mate...

You have one angle, Prigo/Wagner good, can do no wrong, MOD/ Gera/Shogio hopeless, can do nothing right. That about sums it up. No one should listen to someone as biased as you. But with people like you i'm sure you know best and whatever you say must be right. You know best mate, you know best...

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LOL.

Wagner doesn't make its own ammunition. It doesn't make its own tanks, AFVs, IFVs, planes, helicopters etc.

Don't confuse a convenient, if capable, tool for the actual force behind it.

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WAGNER GROUP, THE RUSSIAN STATE AND AFRICA: THE PAST, THE PRESENT AND THE (POSSIBLE) FUTURE

JUL 31 • CHIMA

https://sharpfocusafrica.substack.com/p/wagner-group-the-russian-state-and

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Live by the sword, die by the sword.

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it has yet to arrive on the usa in a fully literal manner..

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This US girl continues to dream of biblical justice, most literally.

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If Russian government was involved in an assassinaion, it chose a strange and complicated method in performing the deed. Is it possible that Yevgeny and his cohorts secretely intended to flee to Finland , were exposed and were stopped by a missile? More interesting and dramatic possibility.

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Given that Prigozhin's cohorts killed ~29 Russian airmen by shooting down multiple aircraft during his coup attempt (two in the Ka-52, three in each Mi-8 and the Mi-35, and 12 for the Il-22), there's poetic justice in dispensing of the traitors with an anti-aircraft missile, if that's indeed what happened.

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Think of the professionalism of Wagner forces that they were able to shoot down 29 Russian airmen in the course of hours whilst Ukraine's best could not do it in months.

Much of the Armed Forces within Russia supported Wagner as evidenced by how Wagner met no resistance on the way (outside the airmen). There were even reports about how men on block posts would let Wagner through due to respect for them/disgruntlement at Gerasimov/Shoigu being percieved as "oligarchs" rather than "one of the men". True or not it is difficult to say, but since I am a fluent Russian speaker/reader and know many Russian people - I wouldn't put it outside the realm of possibility.

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Well considering that half those shoot downs were said to be ambushes on craft that were flying toward the front/Ukraine and had nothing to do with the Wagner rebellion, it's a bit immodest to brag about them. It's more like a craven backstab.

And Wagner was not as effective as you claim in general. They relied on a host of ex-cons as essentially cannonfodder, took 20k casualties to take a single town.

They were the best armed and supplied, as related by many adjacent units. I like Wagner, am proud of what they did but let's not get carried away, or rather swept away by the clever myth that wily old Prigozhin constructed. He's a great salesman though, I'll give him that.

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My understanding was the Helis that were shot down where actively engaging Wagner on the way to Moscow? And even if they were ambushed, the fact that Ukrainian special forces guys are not able to do the same on the front lines speaks volumes to the professionalism of Wagner's men.

Indeed, while Wagner used expendable convicts as cannon fodder, they are not supermen and it is simply impossible to avoid casualties from artillery, mines, drones, air strikes, etc. As far as I unerstand, had extremely limited resources that Wagner had (no TOS-1 systems, de-mining vehicles, etc), and the expendable nature of poorly trained convicts, they decided to improvise to preserve the lives of their best trained men. Wagner is a light infantry force after all as it consists mainly of ex-Spetsnaz guys - so it would make sense they would employ cannon fodder to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.

Of the 20k Wagner men that died (I still maintain this number is Ukrainian propaganda, as even MediaZona indicates that only about 2k Wagnerians died overall, but lets run with it), I wonder how many are part of the "core" group of highly skilled men that presumably marched on Moscow.

Again, I might be wrong and havne't looked into it as much as you, so i'd like your input on the matter.

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No one knows for certain, but the Russian side stated that some of the aircraft, particularly the Mi-8MTPR-1 EW variants were said to not even have known about the Wagner column nor be involved in it and were simply passing toward the front, possibly same goes for the Il-22 plane. The Ka-52s are the only ones I know of that were actively engaging and were shot down.

Wagner was stated by several adjacent units as having been astoundingly lavished by the Russian MOD with armaments. They were the only units given their own daily allotments of Iskander ballistic missiles, Kalibr missiles, etc. They had "on call" airstrike capability in that regard. Not to mention far larger allotments of ammunition than other units. Once again, no one knows for certain and the info could be wrong, but this is what soldiers of adjacent Russian units who are "in the know" reported.

Of course this was by design. The Russian MOD knew that Wagner had the most difficult job at that phase of operations (Bakhmut) and needed to be armed and outfitted accordingly, so there's nothing wrong with that. But I'm simply saying it's disingenuous to then compare them to units who got the short end.

Russian Marines and other units took Mariupol against the most elite Azov and Ukrainian Marine units, with far less losses than Wagner took in Bakhmut, despite the fact that Wagner went up against some of Ukraine's worst cannon fodder units for a large portion of the time (they did face elite ones too, to be fair).

Btw the 20k deaths is not Ukrainian propaganda, it's the number Prigozhin himself openly stated numerous times. In fact a new Wagner memorial just opened in Krasnodar Krai that is said to have 20,000 tokens placed as symbols for the lost Wagnerites:

"In the chapel of PMC "Wagner" in Goryachy Klyuch the first monument in Russia to those who died in the SVO was installed

It is a pyramid of the "Wagner Line" with a drum inside. Over 20,000 tokens in memory of the fallen fighters of the PMC "Wagner" are engraved on the planes.

Later the monument will be moved to the urban environment."

With that said, I myself have expressed the opinion that Prigozhin's 20k number could have been propaganda as at the time he was repeating it, he was really railing against the Russian MOD and exaggerating the narrative of Wagner losses to suit his ends, so it's hard to know for certain. But like I said, they are his official numbers at the end of the day, not Ukraine's.

If the numbers are real that means Wagner lost more taking one town than the Russian army possibly lost in the entire SMO. Not sure that that's tantamount to an 'effective fighting force'.

In my opinion Wagner is good in urban fighting, it's their specialty. Outside of that, when they attempted to fight for Ivanovsk and Klescheyevka, they were slaughtered in the open fields on the outskirts of Bakhmut. There were videos showing piles of dead Wagner infantry caught out in the open.

So to the question of "are they the best fighting unit", I would say in open territories they're not even in the top 5. In cities, maybe they're in the top 3, though I'd probably still pick VDV and Russian naval infantry units over them. Not out of any spite or resentment, like I said I like Wagner. But having watched them both in action, VDV/Marines have demonstrated what to me looks like better professionalism and discipline.

Part of Wagner's mystique came from their brutality, which made them feared because the AFU was afraid to be captured by them. But that's not due to fighting prowess, it's due to what they do to prisoners https://www.bitchute.com/video/mJDz7z5SK6Re/

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Regarding Wagner being engaged during the insurrection: how many Wagnerians died due to MOD attacks? Are there any pictures/video of such attacks on Wagner on Russian soil?

Or were those morons just shooting at every aircraft they saw?

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argh!

that middle para, ugly shite. karen-esque in response. ffs sake my December 1991, what is really at hand with you? urgh.. not the first time noticed...

Ffs check yosel before ye wreck yosel Simps, seriously, . ..

Context and consistence count a long way, . . . .you choose?? ha

get with truth..

Not agenda.

Too much one-sided-ness on here. A certain whitewashing.

Losing credibility.

rapidly.

consider the lillies my Dec 91, wagner gero are now mere war economy fodder? dead useless scum? ffs, did we waste jabs on them? asked WHO??

and anthony oliver , that Artificial Organism, as a direct feed. . .? mmmmm

this is another pile of shite site methinks.

: (

Z

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For christ sake mate can you worship Wagner at your own private shrine, this is getting ridiculous.

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Yeah...I'm not impressed with Wagner's professionalism. They ambushed their own country's aircraft on friendly territory. From the videos I've seen, even the helicopters weren't "actively engaging" the Wagner column. They were ambushed on approach by the cowards involved in the insurrection.

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During war, no sound and sane person voices the comments attributed to Prigozhin. A person of his reputation can find avenues to inject criticism without bringing the nation to factional war. His belief that the Wagner Group, which has been cited as having 8000 soldiers that entered Russia from Ukraine, and, needed several months to dislodge the Ukraine army from a town, could take command of all of Russia is a bit of stretch, no? His chances of winning were infinitesimal and sure to lose everything — military contracts, his private army in Russia, and its reputation overseas. Who wants to contract an army that overthrows its contractor? Why would any soldier want to be associated with that type of army? All that is relatively harmless compared to the final blow ─ a noose around the neck. Does his method of “resolving the chaos,” which he is emphasizing in spades, reflect the activities of a balanced person?

When the Wagner Group was on the front lines and remained armed, nothing could be done to bring it under military control. Realizing he was not wanted and at a disadvantage, Prigozhin proceeded to move his troops to the nearest city, which was Rostov. The media continued catering to his neurotic impulses when it announced that Prigozhin, “seized military headquarters without a fight and was in control of the headquarters and the airport. All flights proceeded without interruption.”

Being in a place does not mean controlling the place. Nowhere had it been shown that Southern Command HQ operating personnel surrendered control to Prigozhin and that he was instituting any form of control. Did he give a single order to anyone?

Why did he have his forces leave the military HQ of the Southern Command, an important place he already controlled and which could serve as a springboard for galvanizing further action? When his forces left Rostov to move on to Moscow the media showed the populace cheering him on, leaving the impression that the Rostov population sided with his adventure. Cheers are easily explained by noting that it is not every day that a heroic and idolized military force and their hardware come to town.

On the road to Moscow, everything becomes murky and “does not add up.” Why did this small force expect to reach Moscow and what did they expect to accomplish? The Russian military could easily block the M-4 highway and all its exits and trap the entire Wagner contingent in a fixed stretch of concrete. Why head into an obvious trap? Could it be that those who don’t know want to do and have no idea of what they are doing, do the ridiculous?

Even if the Wagner troops entered Moscow, how would they navigate traffic and where would they go? What was their objective and their strategy to fulfill the objective?

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I think you're misunderstanding a lot. The goal wasn't to take on the entire Russian military with a few thousand Wagner troops. Prigozhin was planning to go to the Kremlin and demand to see Shoigu and Gerasimov. Once inside his troops were to take both of them out and he was supposed to declare himself in charge of the Russian military. And then use that leverage to force Putin to resign or be arrested. Whether Surovikin would have switched allegiances and joined him is unclear, but it's a possibility.

Prigozhin expected (i.e., was promised by his SBU/CIA handlers) that many Russian military units and government leaders would switch sides and join him and that much of the population would hail him as a hero and support him as he marched into Moscow. And that he would simultaneously have the support of the Ukrainian military and the NATO planes that were still in Europe after the Air Defender exercises to help secure control

Then reality set in...No generals defected. No military units joined him. No government leaders pledged their allegiance. The people that came out dug trenches in the roadway and placed obstacles to slow his forces down. By the time he got close to Moscow, it began to dawn on him how alone and f`*cked he was. Which is what caused him to chicken out.

The crowds that were cheering Wagner's departure from Rostov were happy because Prigozhin left Rostov without bloodshed - they weren't supporting his cause, and they showed up in the first place to criticize him for being a traitor. There were videos of that from earlier in the day.

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"Prigozhin was planning to go to the Kremlin and demand to see Shoigu and Gerasimov. Once inside his troops were to take both of them out and he was supposed to declare himself in charge of the Russian military. And then use that leverage to force Putin to resign or be arrested. Whether Surovikin would have switched allegiances and joined him is unclear, but it's a possibility."

Unless you have a clear communication with Prigozhin, it would be worthwhile to know how you know these intimate details? How could Prigozhin know Shoigu and Gerasimov would be at the Kremlin? Why would Prigozhin be allowed to even move through the streets of Moscow and be allowed into the Kremlin with armaments? I don't have the facts but your thesis seems illogical.

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This has been covered ad nauseum in many, many places. All of us have to infer to some degree, because Prigozhin didn't sign a full confession outlining his master plan, at least publicly. Prigozhin said he was going to Moscow to confront Shoigu and Gerasimov directly. He was delusional to think that he could march into Moscow with 2,000 men "to have a discussion" with the heads of the Russian MoD. That doesn't mean that wasn't his intent. Obviously, he was stopped, and his plans (whatever you choose to believe they were) fell apart.

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Have you seen reliable information on those "downed by Wagner" aircraft and helicopters? I have only seen old pics with "BBC" instead of "BKC" and fires beside the roads looking like truckloads of old tires burning.

Theater requires not only actors, but also light effects, sound effects and stage design.

As the downed aircraft are the single remaining argument for the mutiny having been real, this piece of evidence should be proofed beyond doubt.

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Go back to the post on this - there are pics.

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May be you should go back and look at those pictures asking yourself what you really SEE and not what you IMAGINE seeing

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Maybe you should look up the videos of the Wagner column shooting at one of the attack helicopters on their way to Moscow. Of course, then you'll come back and claimed that the videos were doctored using a green screen and CGI and crisis actors.

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you are capable of SEEING Wagner there? There is a helicopter dropping flares and something (several pixels out of focus) that passes fast through the pic. That could be a missile - but not flying in any reasonable direction. It could be just that, several pixels.

IMAGINATION does miracles

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Are you asserting that Wagner never shot down the aircraft as documented by Simplicious?

Be clear.

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I didn't assert anything. However, I stated that I haven't seen any evidence towards the claim "Wagner shot down several helis and planes". In the absence of such evidence this claim should be entitled a claim and not a fact. Whatever is provided as "evidence" looks more like stage setting and as such part of maskirovka. OTOH, I do not claim, having evidence that no heli was shot done.

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Media reports of the Wagner Group downing one transport aircraft and six helicopters near Voronezh did not seem logical. The initial report surfaced from a social media site on Telegram and slowly gained media credibility.

President Putin, in a speech the day after Russia returned to normal, talked of “bravery and sacrifice of the fallen heroes, pilots saved Russia.” His words seem to connect to incidents in which Russian military personnel were killed.

How can soldiers riding at great speed in covered trucks perceive threatening aircraft and manage to operate tracking equipment? Where is the power to operate the equipment and guide the weapons that target the aircraft?

Images of a downed II-22 aircraft and several helicopters in a field have appeared as certifications of the shootouts. Who took these pictures and how were they able to get them to a Telegraph site in a short time? Could anybody from the moving convoy take the pictures and quickly pass them on to a website? How would anyone else know about downed aircraft and where to locate them?

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So much nonsense in this that there's not much point trying to rebut it.

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I am surprised and bothered by your malicious manner to honest comments that had no malice and certainly no nonsense contained in them. Insults are not acceptable behavior, never an acceptable answer, and a clear indication the writer does not have an acceptable answer. A moderator should not permit this type of behavior. Disgraceful! Please answer one question: "Who took these pictures and how were they able to get them to a Telegraph site in a short time?" Was someone in the field with a smartphone at the exact spot where the aircraft were downed? Needed that to get the images to telegraph in the short time involved.

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The Il 18/22 shotdown video was a reuse of a old an26 shotdown . But the plane was really shot down , together with a KA52 , all hands lost . I seen a video of a strela trying to down it and failing - probably they got it later or in another place . A mi 8 burned , other landed to save itself but seems like both crews survived on them . No damages on wagner columns except a truck and a technical - afaik .Seem they shot the helis "preventively"

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Good answer. I know the plane was shot down; I didn't believe the specific images were credible.

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It could be that killing Prigozhin with Utkin and associated aides was a bonus feature and not a bug in the plan.

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Or just not interfering with what was telegraphed by the enemy.

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