An Embraer Legacy business jet registered to Prigozhin on its way from Moscow to Pulikovo airport outside St. Petersburg crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino, in Tver region northwest of Moscow. The earliest reports jumped the gun claiming Russian air defense shot it down, which spurred theories that this was payback for the Russian airmen killed in Prigozhin’s revolt on June 23. But we’ll get to that theory.
I think a traitor was executed. A man responsible for the deaths of soldiers in Russian helicopters. The Moon of Alabama is especially hilarious about this. The CIA did it! The Ukrainians did it! Anyone but Putin did it! And he’s alive! And will spring forth soon in the offensive that goes to the gates of Paris!
I think Putin did it. I think Putin was justified. That traitor was supposed to stay out of Russia after his failed coup. And he has been flying all over Russia.
And Putin does not care. Putin will never be able to leave Russia again. There will be threats of arrest or assassination. That is the problem of fucking with a man to a certain level. Putin has Zero Fucks Left To Give.
And by the way? It is good to have a reputation of a man not to cross. I was a very angry, large, and violent man early in both police and the military. That reputation stayed with me. (I was called River Dance on TPD). But oddly, in my later years I rarely had to put the wood on anyone. Tulsa is a small town. Word gets around.
And my ethnic Russian friends are ecstatic. I served with a Russian emigre that was on the police department. He did his tour in the Russian military as a young man before he came here. He would have beat Prizoghin to death with a baseball bat. He was literally incoherent the day of the coup.
So, I respectfully disagree. I think the simple story is the story. This is not a set of Russian nesting dolls. It’s just a dead traitor.
Out here on the Left Coast, I had full faith you'd drop something by nightfall regarding this. My first instinct was/is NATO/Ukraine, for there's zero chance the Ukies could do this solo. The timing of this after Prig was down in Africa is just too quick and crazy. That's my initial angle. But I'm no authority at all, that's why I dwell in this here Garden!
Aug 24, 2023·edited Aug 24, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Very comprehensive article Mr December. It was like having all my thoughts and then some mirrored back to me . This has to be Russian military with or with out Mr Putins knowledge . The SBU is very unlikely to have been able to carry this off . I remember Andrei Martyanov saying ,at the time of the coup, that the military would not forgive Prigozhin for the deaths of those pilots and that he was a marked man .He was a traitor and such is their fate.
I spent 5 years as ground service at a business jet only airport FBO (where you get gas, the lav dumped and the carpet vacuumed between flights). I can easily put a bomb on a plane and if you dont see me and dont have sniffer dogs you wont find it and i will get away with it.
Each chapter is very suspenseful. Each moment, each breath. At times I must disengaged. The Great Work continues. The wheel turns; I myself have but a few spins on the blue marble left. Heaviness, loss, deep bone marrow grief. Being of elder years I am not one to sway; steady she goes. Perhaps attributed to all those years floor nursing; especially OR Room Number 10; the morgue. God will guide, Lightspeed. 💙🇷🇺❤️
One thing to note is the Western corporate media is openy gloating - IMMEDIATELY. Almost no surprise. What is ALSO noteworthy is that there is a studied avoidance of even remotely 'trying to claim the credit', when it is obvious that if they had nothing to do with the assassination, they would have claimed it as their 'Great Victory for Ukrainian Liberation'.
Knowing how Western PR works, and adding it all together - it smells very much like a Western payback for the fake "coup" that uncovered MI6's operation in Ukraine.
BTW, the events in Georgia was that the Bush Regime persuaded the Georgians to attack South Ossetia, catching Putin by surprise, and the RMoD rushed reinforcements to the area to protect the civilians.
Later, Putin arrived at the Olympics and immediately barged in to confront Chimpy, who - without his 'brains' around, simply took it, and never annoyed Russian interests again.
Wagner was perhaps the strongest military force in the world. It consisted of ex-spetsnaz soldiers discharged at one point or another. These are soldiers who got a "new lease at life" and where able to serve their country in an unofficial light. Indeed, I would argue that Wagner itself was an extension of the Russian State and was partially controlled from the MOD with individual commanders on the ground given more control (indeed Wagner commanders are for the most part ex-Spetsnaz/GRU themselves. There is only one man who was not special forces, and he has been fighting in Donbass since 2014 but then joined Wagner and served in Syria before being promoted) to act according to the situation on the ground. Since many Wagner commanders are very experienced (see below for more on this), it would make sense to give them more autonomy to act in Russia's strategic interests abroad.
Another and very unique strength, of Wagner was its entirely meritocratic military structure. A man could go from a trooper to a general thanks to his intelligence and valor. This is an echo of the ancient method of waging war. This has not been a fixture of military forces since the medieval era/pirate era. Indeed, discipline was harsh as well. Breach of discipline in Wagner was met with death. This generates both an espirits de corps, plus motivates a man to great deeds - indeed as we saw with accounts of Roman soldiers storming enemy positions, each man would strive to outdo the other for the accolades that it would award him, both in terms of the ability to boast, male hierarchy and the real world tangible benefits that it would net him. This is very much the case in Wagner too and part of the reason why they are able to accomplish difficult tasks like the Siege of Bakhmut with a numerically inferior force.
The combination of these factors created a well disciplined and deadly force, going back to the military tradition of the Roman Republic/early Roman Empire.
To continue with the theme of the Roman Republic/early Roman Empire - Prigozhin and the various PMCs that Russia had - heavily reminded me of how the Repbulican era had many consuls with their troops exclusively loyal to them. This was both a strength in the Roman system, as it allowed Consuls to compete and win accolades for military feats, but it also caused problems like the famous instability of the Roman system that required an iron fist to rule.
While Prigozhin broke discipline, "cast the dice" and "crossed the Rubicon" with his forces much like Julius Caesar did (Rome's own Prigozhin) in Rome 2000 years ago but unlike Caesar he never took it to the end. By not taking it to the end, Prigozhin signed his own death warrant. It is not a question in my mind that Prigozhin was assassinated by Putin or even by orders of Shoigu (acting outside of Putin's knowledge) to eliminate an opponent.
Simplicus, I think you miss an important point - when Prigozhin "crossed the Rubicon" with his forces, there was great support from the population for his actions - hence the reactions of people within Rostov or the military block posts letting him through. It was only after Prigozhin did not take things to the end did people sigh in disappointment, "wake up" and disapprove of his actions - as usually happens with the loser. I would be willing to wager that support for Shoigu and Gerasimov gang is lower than that of Prigozhin - would be interesting to see polls in this regard. Indeed, if rumors are to be believed it was Gerasimov who screwed over Wagner in Syria when they "fought the Americans" by not mediating the situation over phone with them and leaving Wagner hanging without the support/reinforcements they were promised. If US media is to be believed, this resulted in the deaths of 200 Wagner boys and could have been the start of Prigozhin's hostility to Gerasimov.
Surovikin/Mizintsev should have replaced Shoigu/Gerasimov as heads of the Ukraine campaign/MOD as this would have been the meritocratic thing to do, given their performance in Bakhmut vis a vis Gerasimov's poor command earlier in the SMO. In the Roman Republic/early Empire, both Shoigu and Gerasimov would have been executed for their poor performance/errors and rightfully so, while Surovikin/Mizintsev would have been rewarded. For Putin, it seems like doubling down on Shoigu/Gerasimov is a political act rather than what is better for the military as a whole. I still do not remain convinced that these men are the best the Russian army has to offer.
I believe that the death of Prigozhin will see an end to Wagner, and I do not believe this a good thing as Wagner influence would have been good to increase the meritocracy of the Russian Army rather than having it be simply another rigid state institution.
While being an oligarch himself, Prigozhin was a "persona non-grata" to the remainder of the Russian oligarchs - I remember hearing that he was not frequently invited to the parties/social events of the other oligarchs and when he did come they were extremely wary of him. As a result, Prigozhin represented a sort of countering force on the remainder of the Oligarchs and balanced them out - Prigozhin's death is a huge blow to countering the strength of the oligarchs within Russia itself.
If Russian government was involved in an assassinaion, it chose a strange and complicated method in performing the deed. Is it possible that Yevgeny and his cohorts secretely intended to flee to Finland , were exposed and were stopped by a missile? More interesting and dramatic possibility.
I think a traitor was executed. A man responsible for the deaths of soldiers in Russian helicopters. The Moon of Alabama is especially hilarious about this. The CIA did it! The Ukrainians did it! Anyone but Putin did it! And he’s alive! And will spring forth soon in the offensive that goes to the gates of Paris!
I think Putin did it. I think Putin was justified. That traitor was supposed to stay out of Russia after his failed coup. And he has been flying all over Russia.
And Putin does not care. Putin will never be able to leave Russia again. There will be threats of arrest or assassination. That is the problem of fucking with a man to a certain level. Putin has Zero Fucks Left To Give.
And by the way? It is good to have a reputation of a man not to cross. I was a very angry, large, and violent man early in both police and the military. That reputation stayed with me. (I was called River Dance on TPD). But oddly, in my later years I rarely had to put the wood on anyone. Tulsa is a small town. Word gets around.
And my ethnic Russian friends are ecstatic. I served with a Russian emigre that was on the police department. He did his tour in the Russian military as a young man before he came here. He would have beat Prizoghin to death with a baseball bat. He was literally incoherent the day of the coup.
So, I respectfully disagree. I think the simple story is the story. This is not a set of Russian nesting dolls. It’s just a dead traitor.
Out here on the Left Coast, I had full faith you'd drop something by nightfall regarding this. My first instinct was/is NATO/Ukraine, for there's zero chance the Ukies could do this solo. The timing of this after Prig was down in Africa is just too quick and crazy. That's my initial angle. But I'm no authority at all, that's why I dwell in this here Garden!
Thank you - excellent as usual. And -- a question:
Ukro-Nazi drones are repeatedly attacking Moscow. From WHERE -- where/how - are they launched??
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive."
Very comprehensive article Mr December. It was like having all my thoughts and then some mirrored back to me . This has to be Russian military with or with out Mr Putins knowledge . The SBU is very unlikely to have been able to carry this off . I remember Andrei Martyanov saying ,at the time of the coup, that the military would not forgive Prigozhin for the deaths of those pilots and that he was a marked man .He was a traitor and such is their fate.
You wrote that you didn't think Putin would take down Progozhin in such a public way. Possible.
But also possible that he wanted to send a clear message.
I spent 5 years as ground service at a business jet only airport FBO (where you get gas, the lav dumped and the carpet vacuumed between flights). I can easily put a bomb on a plane and if you dont see me and dont have sniffer dogs you wont find it and i will get away with it.
That is what i assume happened here.
Two months ago I wrote, "the hammer will come down." Then I was shocked by Putin's liberalism. Not any more.
Zelynsky will end in similar circumstances... a schrodinger departure when their usefulness or the money has run out.
Each chapter is very suspenseful. Each moment, each breath. At times I must disengaged. The Great Work continues. The wheel turns; I myself have but a few spins on the blue marble left. Heaviness, loss, deep bone marrow grief. Being of elder years I am not one to sway; steady she goes. Perhaps attributed to all those years floor nursing; especially OR Room Number 10; the morgue. God will guide, Lightspeed. 💙🇷🇺❤️
thanks simplicius.. it's complicated and although everyone is entitled to an easy answer - there are no easy answers here - as i see it.
One thing to note is the Western corporate media is openy gloating - IMMEDIATELY. Almost no surprise. What is ALSO noteworthy is that there is a studied avoidance of even remotely 'trying to claim the credit', when it is obvious that if they had nothing to do with the assassination, they would have claimed it as their 'Great Victory for Ukrainian Liberation'.
Knowing how Western PR works, and adding it all together - it smells very much like a Western payback for the fake "coup" that uncovered MI6's operation in Ukraine.
BTW, the events in Georgia was that the Bush Regime persuaded the Georgians to attack South Ossetia, catching Putin by surprise, and the RMoD rushed reinforcements to the area to protect the civilians.
Later, Putin arrived at the Olympics and immediately barged in to confront Chimpy, who - without his 'brains' around, simply took it, and never annoyed Russian interests again.
Excellent work again, remember Putin said there was 1 thing he does not forgive. A TRAITOR
Wagner was perhaps the strongest military force in the world. It consisted of ex-spetsnaz soldiers discharged at one point or another. These are soldiers who got a "new lease at life" and where able to serve their country in an unofficial light. Indeed, I would argue that Wagner itself was an extension of the Russian State and was partially controlled from the MOD with individual commanders on the ground given more control (indeed Wagner commanders are for the most part ex-Spetsnaz/GRU themselves. There is only one man who was not special forces, and he has been fighting in Donbass since 2014 but then joined Wagner and served in Syria before being promoted) to act according to the situation on the ground. Since many Wagner commanders are very experienced (see below for more on this), it would make sense to give them more autonomy to act in Russia's strategic interests abroad.
Another and very unique strength, of Wagner was its entirely meritocratic military structure. A man could go from a trooper to a general thanks to his intelligence and valor. This is an echo of the ancient method of waging war. This has not been a fixture of military forces since the medieval era/pirate era. Indeed, discipline was harsh as well. Breach of discipline in Wagner was met with death. This generates both an espirits de corps, plus motivates a man to great deeds - indeed as we saw with accounts of Roman soldiers storming enemy positions, each man would strive to outdo the other for the accolades that it would award him, both in terms of the ability to boast, male hierarchy and the real world tangible benefits that it would net him. This is very much the case in Wagner too and part of the reason why they are able to accomplish difficult tasks like the Siege of Bakhmut with a numerically inferior force.
The combination of these factors created a well disciplined and deadly force, going back to the military tradition of the Roman Republic/early Roman Empire.
To continue with the theme of the Roman Republic/early Roman Empire - Prigozhin and the various PMCs that Russia had - heavily reminded me of how the Repbulican era had many consuls with their troops exclusively loyal to them. This was both a strength in the Roman system, as it allowed Consuls to compete and win accolades for military feats, but it also caused problems like the famous instability of the Roman system that required an iron fist to rule.
While Prigozhin broke discipline, "cast the dice" and "crossed the Rubicon" with his forces much like Julius Caesar did (Rome's own Prigozhin) in Rome 2000 years ago but unlike Caesar he never took it to the end. By not taking it to the end, Prigozhin signed his own death warrant. It is not a question in my mind that Prigozhin was assassinated by Putin or even by orders of Shoigu (acting outside of Putin's knowledge) to eliminate an opponent.
Simplicus, I think you miss an important point - when Prigozhin "crossed the Rubicon" with his forces, there was great support from the population for his actions - hence the reactions of people within Rostov or the military block posts letting him through. It was only after Prigozhin did not take things to the end did people sigh in disappointment, "wake up" and disapprove of his actions - as usually happens with the loser. I would be willing to wager that support for Shoigu and Gerasimov gang is lower than that of Prigozhin - would be interesting to see polls in this regard. Indeed, if rumors are to be believed it was Gerasimov who screwed over Wagner in Syria when they "fought the Americans" by not mediating the situation over phone with them and leaving Wagner hanging without the support/reinforcements they were promised. If US media is to be believed, this resulted in the deaths of 200 Wagner boys and could have been the start of Prigozhin's hostility to Gerasimov.
Surovikin/Mizintsev should have replaced Shoigu/Gerasimov as heads of the Ukraine campaign/MOD as this would have been the meritocratic thing to do, given their performance in Bakhmut vis a vis Gerasimov's poor command earlier in the SMO. In the Roman Republic/early Empire, both Shoigu and Gerasimov would have been executed for their poor performance/errors and rightfully so, while Surovikin/Mizintsev would have been rewarded. For Putin, it seems like doubling down on Shoigu/Gerasimov is a political act rather than what is better for the military as a whole. I still do not remain convinced that these men are the best the Russian army has to offer.
I believe that the death of Prigozhin will see an end to Wagner, and I do not believe this a good thing as Wagner influence would have been good to increase the meritocracy of the Russian Army rather than having it be simply another rigid state institution.
While being an oligarch himself, Prigozhin was a "persona non-grata" to the remainder of the Russian oligarchs - I remember hearing that he was not frequently invited to the parties/social events of the other oligarchs and when he did come they were extremely wary of him. As a result, Prigozhin represented a sort of countering force on the remainder of the Oligarchs and balanced them out - Prigozhin's death is a huge blow to countering the strength of the oligarchs within Russia itself.
Live by the sword, die by the sword.
If Russian government was involved in an assassinaion, it chose a strange and complicated method in performing the deed. Is it possible that Yevgeny and his cohorts secretely intended to flee to Finland , were exposed and were stopped by a missile? More interesting and dramatic possibility.