Do you know that ukranians are fucked up people who teach even their children to butcher russians, right? There are sick videos of this. They have cheered the killing of their own people în the Donbass for 8 years, so they are not innocent angels. What will Russia do? Exaust themself trying to beat that shithole of a country? And then what? Will the West back of?
So we nuke a city full of civilians because an unknown percentage are rabid NAZI supporters?
Many are not. Many are play acting so as to incur the wrath of the NAZI minded and the SBU.
Many just want this to end. Don't forget they voted for the khaki midget as he said he would end the Donbass conflict. But then the NAZi enablers reined the midget in and said he would be killed if he tried to stop the neo=con Zionist pet project.
Lol, twitter cope is great, its why i get banned so much. Those trucks cant carry any grain unless someone shovels it into sacks. People are so dumb.
Whatever happens it wont be what we expected, i learned that in 2014.
In this day and age i would have trucks trucking everywhere BUT where i was really going. Same with the field hospitals, you can wait until it starts before putting one of those up if you want, probably takes 2 hrs with enough guys and a plan. And Russians can drill better than anyone.
The one thing i would do is eliminate all the reasons the us wants ukraine, destroy cargils elevators, destroy everything monsanto owns etc.
I agree. There's a potential here for a massive maskirovka dupe, and I've stated in the previous reports there is even a strong chance that Russia wants everyone to think they're attacking soon but in fact an attack won't happen til later in the Spring. But with that said, I do believe it's going to be go time, and on top of which, if UA is as depleted as it's believed they might be, then it may not matter too much about having the element of surprise because they're so utterly 'fixed in place' in the new Bakhmut / Kremennaya / Ugledar axes that they may have much good troops to send to other directions no matter WHERE you open up the front.
BUT I HAVE been following the many new brigades UA is building in the west, and they're set to have as many as 23++ new brigades by springtime, this is upwards of 50-80k troops, many of which are training all over Europe, U.S., west Ukraine, etc., so they definitely have SOME reserves but the biggest question of all is how big is the mobilized army really going to be that Russia brings. If it's as big as some claim (500k) then no amount of UA reserves will withstand it. But if it's only 200-250k and parceled out even fewer because Russia keeps a major portion back as reserves/for rotation, then we could see many pitched battles as it won't quite be enough to "overrun" UA's reserves but rather get into positional, incremental battles with them like we've been seeing this whole time.
Re the " many new brigades UA is building in the west, and they're set to have as many as 23++ new brigades by springtime, this is upwards of 50-80k troops.." it does sound impressive on paper, however with different languages, command structures, mix and match weapons, and equipment, plus the mercs who are in it only for the money (they will run as soon as it gets too 'hot') I don't reckon it will be anywhere as good as a force that size should be.
Perhaps not such a big problem if commanded by NATO officers who are used to working together. Maybe even NATO officers from just one or two countries like the US and/or Britain?
A RuAF offensive now rather than later may be intended to preempt that.
Yep that's one of the main reasons I'm still very strongly leaning towards the offensive starting soon is because I believe RF has a short window to completely cut off alot of that new Western aid and Western trained brigades whose timetable is set for around late march / early april to actually begin percolating down into Ukraine. If RF can get the initiative between now and then they will be in a really strong place strategically. And I believe they know that which is why it's almost certain they will launch a new large action a.s.a.p.
Yep, it has to happen before you are actually dealing with nato everything just dressed as ukies. Otherwise they are just making more work for themselves.
John Titus at "Best Evidence" has examined FRED data and concluded the US TBTF are insolvent. There's been an extend and pretend since 08, but something hinting at collapse is in the air. I'm sure that the escalation elevator is unstoppable. That we'll see rationing in the west and a switch to a war economy - all fingers into the expanding cracks in the dike.
The EU in 2022 lost 800 billions to bailout energy bills.Good to add to their losses: vat, IR, bankrupted companies, shops closed en masse, less tourism,inflation between 8 and 25%(with no salary increase), food banks, collapse of car sales, diesel, gas increases etc etc...we can count of a more or less 1.6/1.8 trillions Euros losses. If it lasts 5 years, they will lose a good 10 trillions eur. Well done US vassals.US has no allies only slaves.
Ukrops forces ready to attack Transnistria, to steal the weapons and expel russian forces.Macron is behind this, new PM asked to night for RU army to leave asap.French légion is there to 'help'.
The main reasons US Regime wants Ukr is for 1. Biolabs and slavs to use as biowar Guinea pigs 2. Massive money laundering for the Regime 3. Staging area for infiltration and sabotage of Russia.
Sure there are corporate interests in Ukr but those pale in comparison.
But the corporations pay for the politicians. Ukraine recently changed the laws on farm land so foreigners and corporations could buy it., im sure that wasnt their own idea. Someone paid off the US advisors to get that done. As Russia/DPR/LPR move forward everything behind them owned by outside entities is confiscated. USA has 300 biolabs, presumably 200 of them are in other former soviet countries.
"Hence, I suspect Russia has its main vectors/objectives set in a fluid Jeet Kune Do fashion, such that they can be swapped momentarily. "
To quote Bruce Lee, "You know, baby. This bamboo is longer, more flexible, and very much alive. And when your flashy routine cannot keep up with the speed and elusiveness of this thing here; all I can say is you will be in deep trouble."
Lee was a student of Sun Tzu. And as this SMO escalates into actual open warfare, I'm truly impressed at how the Russian leadership is applying the lessons from the Art of War in real time.
Tonight Russia announced officialy that the SBU was the only perpetrator of the attack on the Crimea bridge. It is important as no more talk about UK MI6 involment, VP can use that to declare war on ukraine tuesday, the next day the Duma in special assembly meeting can legalize VP statement and declares war on 404.
Crimean bridge terror attack proved to be organized by Ukrainian special service
12 people involved in this crime identified, eight of them in custody.
Yep that's insightful of you. Personally I'm skeptical they'll "declare war" though anything is possible, but Putin will likely use it as a steady build up of the pressure and critical mass toward justifying a more aggressive posture. I wish I was wrong and he did declare it but, don't think that's happening particularly because at this point it doesn't open up any particularly useful options. The only real thing a declaration of war can add is the full usage of Russia's conscript forces, but that would seem illogical considering Russia hasn't even put into action its full mobilized force yet, let alone needs any help from conscripts at this time.
Lee is usually overrated. Check it out on the Internet. Only one recording of him in a real fight exists. This went down as a far less lop-sided affair than his movie stunts. Even disregarding that, he was very much a counter-striker and never wrestled. This style of fighting, while innovative in his day, has been superseded by more holistic approaches, notably MMA. Lee would hardly stand a chance against modern-day MMA fighters like Khabib and McGregor.
At his heaviest, Lee was 145lb but because of his crazy work load between 1971 and 1973 - he was filming TV shows in L.A. and completed four movies and filming a 5th one in Hong Kong when he died - he lost a lot of weight and actually suffered two heat strokes. The second one was fatal.
That film wasn't of him in a real fight. It was of him doing full contact sparring which he did a lot of at a time when no one in the U.S. martial arts circles were doing it.
I'm not saying Bruce Lee was the same superhuman as his movie characters. Only that his ideas regarding fitness and combatives were legit. And that he was an apt student of Sun Tzu.
In real life, Lee carried both a pistol and a belt buckle knife for self defense because he knew the differences between the movies and the streets. I only cited him because of the JKD reference.
Also, his contemporary, Michael Chan, who was a gangster, a movie star and a kickboxer agreed that Lee would have often lost in the ring but would be hard to beat in a street fight.
There are numerous people that knew Lee personally in Hong Kong, and in the USA, and have testified to his rep as a notoriously good street fighter, they witnessed the action.
In fact that's the main reason his father sent him out of HK to San Francisco, to get him out of that 'lifestyle'.
Once he became 'famous' he was constantly challenged by thugs and he never backed down and always gave them beatings.
He wasn't superhuman, correct, but he was a capable street fighter and extremely strong and fit. I can't remember who said it, but he had the strength of a 14 plus stone man but was only 10-11 stone in weight.
Yeah, I've met and trained with some folks who were friends with Lee's family.
When Wong Jock Man and Lee had their fight, Lee's student, Jimmy Lee locked the door to their school and stood near where he had a gun hidden in case things got ugly and Wong had some of his guys nearby to storm them.
What made Lee formidable was that not only was he a fitness fanatic but, aside from being a teacher, he was also always a student of anyone he could learn from.
Whether it was Judo from Hayward Nishioka or Filipino Kali from his student Dan Inosanto, he was always down to pick up new skills.
Anyways, regarding the quote about the fluidity of a Jeet Kune Do strategy that was in the article..........it brought to mind Lee's Sun Tzu inspired mindset which we see being played out in real warfare. Maskirovka was beautifully illustrated in these sequences.
Will Russia declare NATO a hostile combatant in the coming announcement? They've sent out many warnings, only to be ignored and/or laughed at like Munich 2007. Will they begin targeting decision making centers? Hypersonics make it easy. Wondering also if Moon's observation regarding AFU/NATO tanks missing from the clobber list lately means they're holding back hoping to use a mobile reserve in case of breakthrough.
Declaring it a hostile combatant could happen. Striking decision centers, if you mean Ukrainian ones like in Kiev--could be, but I personally doubt it. For 2 reasons:
1. firstly I believe Putin wants the 'image' of having power handed over in a more 'proper' way, rather than assassinating his rival leadership.
2. I believe there's no real point in doing so because everyone knows guys like Zelensky are just vapid puppets anyway. Who cares if he gets taken out in an airstrike? There's far worse radical militant nationalists that would just take power behind him. And taking him out would only anger the globe as the optics of it would look really bad. So I highly doubt that'll happen.
But with the mention of hypersonics, coincidentally today a statement came out from chief of Rostec:
"The Russian Federation has increased the production of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system, said the head of Rostec Sergey Chemezov.
"I got into production a long time ago, initially there was no need for such a quantity. We are now increasing it," Chemezov said in an interview with the Military Acceptance program. He stated that Rostec is currently producing colossal volumes of products for the RF Ministry of Defense. "Volumes have grown significantly, in some cases by 50 times," Chemezov said."
As for your 'NATO tanks missing from clobber list', I didn't quite understand what you mean? Who is holding back, AFU or Russia?
How about striking NATO decision centers located in Ukraine? Russia doesn't seem to have done that, or perhaps only to some smaller degree. Killing NATO officers would be a form of escalation for sure.
As for Moon, what he means is the Russian MoD clobber list. It has also been noted by other commentators. Ukrainian tanks sudenly seem to have gone missing from the battlefield as witnessed by none of them being reported as having been destroyed over the last few days or so. That's unless they have been fitted with some new-fangled cloaking device, of course <IRONY OFF>. Moon does speculate to what extent it's due to UAF running out of tanks, or having decided to pull them back in anticipation of a Russian offensive.
I'm almost certain they're definitely pulling a lot back in preparation for defense. Don't underestimate AFU. There's tons of nonsense and amateurishness among them, but they're also extremely capable leaders/fighters of the Soviet tradition melded with the best of the best of NATO leadership controlling them at every point. They're not stupid, which is why Russia hasn't completely 'run them through' yet, and why they were able to inflict certain embarrassing pseudo-defeats on Russia up to this time.
They definitely have tanks left. Not a great deal of course, comparatively speaking (compared to Russia) but by my estimates they likely have at least 200+ and some people believe it's even much more like 500-800.
That might sound like a lot but considering Russia has thousands it's really nothing. I believe they started with about 1200-1500 usable ones (2500-3500 on paper, pre-war, but most were mothballed or not in working order), and Russia destroyed somewhere in the 1000-1300 range of them, but they also captured some and Poland and others gave them another few hundred. So when you do all the addition/substraction in my opinion it leaves them with ~200-300 at the most, and of course they were hoping for another 300-500 from NATO desperately but now it's looking like NATO will only realistically deliver 50-70 if not less (well Leopards and such, Poland is set to allegedly send another 120 of T-72 variants)
Their elites are all vassals of D.C. and most of their people are starting to resent it.
Biden and Norway fucked over Germany worse than any action by Russia.
And because we are forcing Europe to buy our petrol after closing down domestic oil production, our trucks which deliver goods might be in grave danger from fuel shortages.
Nord Stream 2 is operable as we speak…Germany could start importing gas through it tomorrow if they wanted to. Putin is the only party with motives to blow up the pipeline:
Russia didn't blow it up, although that WAS an option I myself considered initially long ago, prior to major revelations and too much other proof that shows NATO was responsible. However, with that said, that's not to say Russia is not benefiting from or even happy to some extents with the outcome, and arguably even 'aiding' some of the fallout for a variety of reasons you likely touched on.
If Russia was truly indignant about the incident they would have reacted much more fiercely but are treating it pretty nonchalantly. I think because they have all these scenarios gamed out and they know how to benefit from it no matter which way it goes, of course the destruction of Nord Stream would've been an obvious and easily foreseen culmination. In fact it may have been a sort of 'trap' set by Russia by goading the U.S. into it, to destroy U.S./German relations
Well, Hurricane Ian didn’t hit Louisiana and so the price of natural gas was only juiced for a few days. Putin blowing up NS paid for itself with risk premium but had Ian hit Louisiana Putin would have won the war.
It would've been an attractive hypothesis if it weren't for the now abundance of evidence showing NATO aircraft circling the area, new eyewitness testimony just released 2 days ago of an anonymous U.S. servicemen who witnessed the Nato divers go into the water during the Baltops 22 exercises, etc. There's just too big a preponderance of evidence and cui bono now, but like I said, there's good chance Russia is 'judo-throwing' the outcome either way in a favorable direction
Keep the Americans in the Russians out and the Germans down and I would add, pick feckless, Quisling, compradors for leadership.. I'm pointing at you Schultz the sausage.
A political ultimatum for NATO is the only way out of the current situation - Alexey Pilko
The results of the Munich Security Conference allow us to draw an unambiguous conclusion - NATO will wage a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, regardless of the risks. Moreover, there are no risks for the countries of the alliance, Russia does not create them. This is why the United States and its allies are quite confident. And they behave boldly - the volume of arms supplies is growing, and the entire intelligence complex of the North Atlantic bloc is working in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In fact, Moscow was forced to play by someone else's rules, although Moscow was to blame for that. It was necessary to respond more harshly to the increased escalation of NATO, and not to speak of "red lines" which no longer frighten anyone. Russia reacts late to the actions of the enemy, and its political apparatus is in a kind of inhibited state and cannot get out of it.
Since the start of the war, in response to multiple rate hikes from the West, the Russian side has reacted only twice: it has started a partial mobilization (with a six-month delay) and an infrastructure war (which is obviously not carried out to full force). At the same time, she made many critical mistakes, which in world politics are interpreted as a clear weakness: the withdrawal of troops from Kiev after the Istanbul negotiations, the conclusion of a "grain agreement", abandonment of Kherson. And this is not a complete list.
It is very difficult to correct the current situation. Most likely, without using the nuclear asset (where Russia has certain advantages) it is simply impossible. Playing the "nuclear card" does not necessarily mean the use of weapons of mass destruction, but a set of measures intended to convince the enemy of the necessity of their use under certain conditions clearly defined at the highest political level.
What can be the algorithm of actions? First, in the very near future Russia is expected to officially withdraw from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Secondly, immediately after that, large-scale nuclear tests should be carried out. On a large scale - this means comparable to that of Khrushchev on Novaya Zemlya of the 1961 model. Thirdly, exercises should also be conducted using tactical nuclear weapons. In addition, it is to be made available to Russian troops in the Kaliningrad region, Crimea and Belarus, as well as to equip Russian Navy ships with it.
Once these measures have been taken, the time will come for a political ultimatum which will make it clear that if arms deliveries to Ukraine continue, Russia will launch limited strikes with conventional precision weapons against logistics centers in the countries of NATO. If the alliance responds with strikes against Russian troops in Ukraine or an attack on Russian territory, limited nuclear strikes against NATO military infrastructure in Europe will follow.
Moreover, this ultimatum should not be some kind of rationalization, but rather specific in nature: with an indication of the timetable and goals. The task of such a policy is to create critical risks for the existence of the countries of Europe and North America if they continue to provide military support to Ukraine. As an intermediate stage of escalation, one can also use the demonstrative destruction of part of the enemy's satellite constellation, which provides information to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, ”explains analyst Alexei Pilko
Pretty good though it gets a few things wrong. Kiev withdrawal had nothing to do with Istanbul, it was a foregone conclusion already as Russia's tiny expeditionary force was not going to accomplish the long term objectives there and a massive re-orientation of force/objectives was already a long gone conclusion before that.
As for nuclear tests, there was much discussion a few months ago already that RUssia had reportedly 'signaled' that it could consider conducting new nuclear tests in the medium term future, so that's a possibility.
We'll see what Putin says in the upcoming address as there's possibility for new elevated rhetoric that matches some/many of the points outlined in this article.
Whatever is planned, by both sides, it is a dangerous time. Biden visit is awkward as he will come with lots of mil support/protection = US/RU clash risk. If POTUS hints at talks/ceasefire then all RU plans will have to be put on hold, as RU is rational (USA has 'de-escalation dominance' I call it)? Or, with the heightened tension having POTUS there, a false-flag decapitation strike on B&Z would be manipulated into WW3 - what western country would have the mettle to say 'hang on let's investigate this'. How should RU counter such a scenario....?
Lot of people in the US would be very happy to get rid of the zombie, including in the Dems party as they don't want him as candidate for 2024.Lot of ukies also would be very happy to see ZE gone.
"Note, the specific confirmation of something we predicted here in one of the recent reports, which is that the offensive is likely to kick off, not all at once but in several stages in order to maximize confusion, allow a little lead time for AFU to frantically send reserves to one direction to caulk the flow, only for a completely different direction to massively kick off into un-reinforced territory."
I would argue that this has already been going on for a while now. Russia has been attacking at points all along the front, except for Kherson. This has drawn off many Ukrainian reserve brigades, two for Ugledar alone, for example.
What I find interesting is that where the Russian met only light resistance, from weak territorial formations or heavily depleted regular infantry brigades, they kept pushing. But they stopped, or even fell back, when faced with more capable resistance, which usually came from hastily brought in Ukrainian reserves. That very strongly suggests that along most of the front at least, the primary objective for these Russian attacks were not specific geographical locations (Ugledar, Marinka, Kupyansk, etc), but to force the Ukrainians into spending their reserves.
And if Russia were to launch a major offensive soon, a smart general would, if he had the opportunity to do so, start with some preliminary 'faints' which would force the Ukrainians to spend their reserves prematurely, or lose those important locations. It's not proof of an imminent offensive though, as the greater Russian objective with these 'faints' may simply have been to draw these Ukrainian reserve formations into artillery range, and do some more 'demilitarising'. Or, as we talked about earlier, going from 'death by a thousand paper cuts', to 'death by a hundred knife cuts'.
But it doesn't contradict the possibility of an imminent offensive either. Nevertheless, I'm still hesitant about any single 'big arrow' offensive setting off soon, along just one front sector. Major attacks along a number of different axis in different places seems more likely to me.
you're right there's been some 'confirmation' recently that alot of Russia's new actions like the Ugledar direction was in fact to draw UA forces, which worked as they had to drastically pull down forces from Kremennaya to Ugledar and shuffle them around, which led to Krem front collapsing quite a bit, etc.
Thanks for the analysis. It will be very interesting to see what Biden/Blinken/Neuland decide to do in response. This is their shit show, and they won't just back down now. The question is, what are the options they are considering?
With the spate of train derailments, and the chemical fire and poisonous clouds and contaminated air/water/soil threatening 250 million people east of the Mississippi River, there is more opposition to our involvement in this war than ever.
Only the shitlibs in Blue Cities are still flying the Ukrainian flag.
I can only hope the poisonous gas and acid rain falls on Washington D.C. and Delaware.
America has grown much stronger thanks to Putin’s asinine invasion of Ukraine as it turbocharged our LNG export industry. Putin is as big a dumbass as George W Bush!
LNG is liquid natural gas—natural gas isn’t expensive in America right now. It was expensive but that also had a lot to do with Hurricane Ida and Texas Deep Freeze…now it’s back to being inexpensive and we are the biggest LNG exporter!
They don't control the military. They are a shell. All they have is the CIA to LARP as military. Trump got on Air Force One with the Nuclear Football on "Inauguration Day" and Putin knows it. There's video of it. The whole thing is a pageant.
Yep, I agree BUT it all depends how much forces Russia really has hidden away. Whether it's the 200k+ mobiks we think, or the 'stealth mobilized' 500-700k some (like Macgregor) think might be the case. If it's on the lower end then I don't think it's enough to pull off such vast disparate campaigns
hope springs eternal. Babyface Tsar's fake and gay liddle war on Ukraine has been such a bust so far, that any kind of westward motion will be amazing.
And 12 trillions in minerals gone in the Donbass, welcome in the real world.Wheat has been sold to monsanto and cargill, ukies in fact has zero wheat anymore.It was the most corrupted country in the world, now western ukieland will become the poorest one, even Chisinau will do better.
How much wheat does Switzerland have?? Ukraine will end up better as America and the EU invest billions in their country so they can better integrate with the West.
WHICH BIDEN is meeting with Zelensky on the 21st? Hope they pick the "conscious one " for the meet. Are they going to discuss the situation in Ukraine or is for another round of money laundering? (wink wink).
I usually spend a lot of time mocking "5D Bloggers" with their breathless predictions about how Russia is going to turn everything around in exactly two weeks.
But you bring up a lot of good arguments.
I do think that you get lost in the details. The most important factors is simply troop numbers, force concentration. Russia can't advance against fortified positions against superior numbers.
I mean look at Bakhmut. Months of a meat grinder to eke out a hundred meters here and there. And now Prigozhin says he's not sure he can even take it.
The offensive in the south? No progress either.
We've all been waiting for something big swooping down from Belarus, but, again, where are the troop numbers?
Also, I strongly disagree with your analysis that the Russians are about to start sending planes deep into Ukraine and again and targeting bridges and so on.
First of all, NAZI NAZI NAZI isn't an argument. Most of the men are conscripts. Normal Ukrainians forced to fight and die by Zelensky who is not even ethnically Ukrainian. Am I a Nazi for pointing our that the entire Kiev government is from the same tribe as Zelensky?
>And they have made progress. Don't you think destroying two iterations of Ukie armies, and their air force and navy too, progress?
They didn't though. Ukraine is closing in on 100k losses with Russia probably 70k.
>Russia has hundreds of thousands champing at the bit waiting for the Go signal.
Well, I can see why you'd field some of the opinions you do because your logic is premised on a lot of very faulty foundations. Russian losses are definitely not 70k, not even half of that. But it depends on what you consider 'Russian' and what you consider 'losses'. If 'losses' to you are casualties, and if casualties are defined in the broadest sense, as they often are, which doesn't merely limit it to KIA -- and if by 'Russian' you mean all allied forces, which includes LPR, DPR, Wagner, all paramilitary, volunteer, PMC, etc., then total casualty in broadest sense of the word, which includes permanent debilitating injuries as 'irrecoverable losses' are likely in the 50k+ range.
But for RUSSIAN forces only, their current KIA is somewhere in the 12-17k range, their further 'irrecoverable' (limbless, etc) could be another 5-10k, although we've had many different reports attesting to Russia's combat medicine abilities ("98% injured return to combat" etc), so it could be even less than that.
LPR/DPR has an additional 10kish KIA casualties and maybe another 10-15k 'irrecoverable' (let's call it 20k total "casualties") and another 5-10k for various paramilitary/volunteer forces. So total KIA for all Allied forces is in the 25k range, maybe 30k at very most. Probably 40k-50k "irrecoverable" if you count lost limbs etc.
Ukraine is likely 50-100k KIA and another 100k irrecoverable (an insider leak long ago showed they had 60k with lost limbs/legs, and that was at least 5 months ago).
Maybe on paper but my estimate is they had closer to 200k on the eve of SMO, despite what Zelensky might bluster about with his inflated numbers. From that 200k they lost 100-150k by my estimates but also mobilized another 100-150k via their 11+ rounds of mobilization, so in my book that would put them at around 200-250k now as we speak. On the actual frontlines, I believe the only have somewhere in 150k range or less at this point but they do have some reserves, of at least another 100k depending how you count them. As Macgregor I believe said in one video, he said Zelensky's claim of "700k" personnel is if you count every non military 'combat capable' individual like various police, border guards, MP (military police) and other law enforcement type of units, but strictly speaking of real combat units it's much less.
It's impossible to say for certain though. All I know is there's strong allegations they have somewhere in the range of 20-25 new brigades slowly building in the rear and various EU countries, which is equivalent to anywhere from 50-80k+ troops, meant to be used in the 'Spring offensive'.
"As Macgregor I believe said in one video, he said Zelensky's claim of "700k" personnel is if you count every non military 'combat capable' individual like various police, border guards, MP (military police) and other law enforcement type of units, but strictly speaking of real combat units it's much less. "
When we see the quality of 'mobilized' ukies, like kidnapped in daylight in the street, taken by force in supermarkets, offices etc...i doubt these 'mobs' will be of very high quality and motivation near zero even after training even on nato standards...don't forget that the only goal of the neocons + nato is to kill as many russians as possible to 'weaken' Russia, and for VP not being reelected(if candidate of course?) in 2024.These idiots seems to believe once VVP gone a miracle will happen and king Navalny or any other stooge will take over without any reaction from Stavska and co..keep on dreamin nato, neocons.Nobody in the West cares about Ukraine even less about ukies.They just want a 'double header' in their dreams steal all energy, minerals etc from both 404 and Russia.
But, yes I've seen many estimates of losses as high as 300-600k, Anything's possible as none of us know with 100% certainty but my personal estimates are 100-150k irrecoverable losses most likely and from various algorithmic extrapolations I've seen, like this one: https://twitter.com/ZaTritsa/status/1627225815652962304
We're very confident of our figures, they're not guesses or conjecture but based on long accurate and proven analysis. Anyone who thinks Russia has more than 20k casualties is far removed from reality and is mostly just grasping/coping as there is zero evidence to suggest that. But like I said, this topic is so heavily vested in semantics and wordplay it really has to be extremely clearly defined what each side is referring to when they say "Russian" and when they say "casualty".
How can there be such a gaping disparity in casualties between the two warring sides? Russian preponderance in artillery doesn't justify a whopping 4:1 favourable casualty ratio. Any army would self-disintegrate when placed under such adversity, that's common sense. But the AFU is still standing and more, doesn't give up an inch of ground without furious fighting.
Months ago the Ukrainians were even rumoured to have managed to reduce the shelling ratio from 1:9 to 2:7 against them. Now they are suffering again, probably because of the lull in waiting a new Western dispatch, after having exhausted munitions and shells from the previous one. Russian offensives through open ground at the beginning of the war failed with high losses. L/DPR in Marinka and Avdivka have suffered grievously throughout the whole year.
So a bit more Ukrainian losses, but definitely not in the 4:1 proportions discussed here, that Russia would achieve fighting spear-hurling Yanomamos from the Amazonas.
Thanks buddy, I really enjoy your articles too even though I find myself disagreeing with alot/most of it hehe, but it gives me a lot of food for thought. And I like to "keep myself honest" so to speak by rejecting the echochamber and keeping my ears to the ground for other perspectives.
While you're right UA has superior numbers currently, I'm not sure how you're dismissing the likely 200-250k (or 500-700k depending on who you ask, though admittedly I'm skeptical of that number) mobiks that haven't entered the fray yet? Even Shoigu announced only 40k out of the 300k were put into action thus far, that means at minimum, even IF we presuppose the 300k number as accurate and no 'stealth mobilization' occurred, that leaves a whopping 240k still sitting on the sidelines ready to enter combat. And that number is more than double what Russia has used previously in theater. So the logic goes that, if Russia can be doing pretty well and winning with 100k or less, then how can one doubt their successful advancement with 400-500k total?
"Offensive in the south? No progress." - You appear to be treating it as if all Russian troops are in theater. Do you know something we don't? Like I mentioned, I'm operating under the premise that 250k mobiks are still sitting out. I assume you're of the assumption that ALL mobilized have been committed to combat already? That's definitely not the case.
As for the planes, well we're already seeing it happen. In fact just as I type this there's new reports on twitter from Ukrainian minister crying about Russia's big uptick in tactical aircraft strike usage.
Of course it remains a matter of volume or intensity. To you it may not count if it's not 'all out mass air assault with complete impunity', etc. For me the standards are a little lower, I'd consider it a big doctrinal shift and escalation even if we start seeing a decently noticeable upswing.
With that said, IF and only IF the rumors of massive new air assets being stationed on the borders are true, then I can't see any other possibility than an escalation of the sort we're discussing because there would be nothing else for such massive amounts of aircraft to hit OTHER than things deeper in the rear. They can't ALL be doing frontline CAS, etc.
But a lot of this stuff is premised on the big "IFS" of whether the various rumors/reports about force numbers are true or not.
"Why don t they just nuke Kiev?"
Why? Because they are not amoral, sick, genocidal scum as are the US military.
Nuking a city a city full of civilians is a vile, despicable act. But surely you know this?
Do you know that ukranians are fucked up people who teach even their children to butcher russians, right? There are sick videos of this. They have cheered the killing of their own people în the Donbass for 8 years, so they are not innocent angels. What will Russia do? Exaust themself trying to beat that shithole of a country? And then what? Will the West back of?
So we nuke a city full of civilians because an unknown percentage are rabid NAZI supporters?
Many are not. Many are play acting so as to incur the wrath of the NAZI minded and the SBU.
Many just want this to end. Don't forget they voted for the khaki midget as he said he would end the Donbass conflict. But then the NAZi enablers reined the midget in and said he would be killed if he tried to stop the neo=con Zionist pet project.
We are lucky you are not in charge.
Lol, twitter cope is great, its why i get banned so much. Those trucks cant carry any grain unless someone shovels it into sacks. People are so dumb.
Whatever happens it wont be what we expected, i learned that in 2014.
In this day and age i would have trucks trucking everywhere BUT where i was really going. Same with the field hospitals, you can wait until it starts before putting one of those up if you want, probably takes 2 hrs with enough guys and a plan. And Russians can drill better than anyone.
The one thing i would do is eliminate all the reasons the us wants ukraine, destroy cargils elevators, destroy everything monsanto owns etc.
I agree. There's a potential here for a massive maskirovka dupe, and I've stated in the previous reports there is even a strong chance that Russia wants everyone to think they're attacking soon but in fact an attack won't happen til later in the Spring. But with that said, I do believe it's going to be go time, and on top of which, if UA is as depleted as it's believed they might be, then it may not matter too much about having the element of surprise because they're so utterly 'fixed in place' in the new Bakhmut / Kremennaya / Ugledar axes that they may have much good troops to send to other directions no matter WHERE you open up the front.
BUT I HAVE been following the many new brigades UA is building in the west, and they're set to have as many as 23++ new brigades by springtime, this is upwards of 50-80k troops, many of which are training all over Europe, U.S., west Ukraine, etc., so they definitely have SOME reserves but the biggest question of all is how big is the mobilized army really going to be that Russia brings. If it's as big as some claim (500k) then no amount of UA reserves will withstand it. But if it's only 200-250k and parceled out even fewer because Russia keeps a major portion back as reserves/for rotation, then we could see many pitched battles as it won't quite be enough to "overrun" UA's reserves but rather get into positional, incremental battles with them like we've been seeing this whole time.
Re the " many new brigades UA is building in the west, and they're set to have as many as 23++ new brigades by springtime, this is upwards of 50-80k troops.." it does sound impressive on paper, however with different languages, command structures, mix and match weapons, and equipment, plus the mercs who are in it only for the money (they will run as soon as it gets too 'hot') I don't reckon it will be anywhere as good as a force that size should be.
Perhaps not such a big problem if commanded by NATO officers who are used to working together. Maybe even NATO officers from just one or two countries like the US and/or Britain?
A RuAF offensive now rather than later may be intended to preempt that.
Yep that's one of the main reasons I'm still very strongly leaning towards the offensive starting soon is because I believe RF has a short window to completely cut off alot of that new Western aid and Western trained brigades whose timetable is set for around late march / early april to actually begin percolating down into Ukraine. If RF can get the initiative between now and then they will be in a really strong place strategically. And I believe they know that which is why it's almost certain they will launch a new large action a.s.a.p.
Yep, it has to happen before you are actually dealing with nato everything just dressed as ukies. Otherwise they are just making more work for themselves.
John Titus at "Best Evidence" has examined FRED data and concluded the US TBTF are insolvent. There's been an extend and pretend since 08, but something hinting at collapse is in the air. I'm sure that the escalation elevator is unstoppable. That we'll see rationing in the west and a switch to a war economy - all fingers into the expanding cracks in the dike.
The EU in 2022 lost 800 billions to bailout energy bills.Good to add to their losses: vat, IR, bankrupted companies, shops closed en masse, less tourism,inflation between 8 and 25%(with no salary increase), food banks, collapse of car sales, diesel, gas increases etc etc...we can count of a more or less 1.6/1.8 trillions Euros losses. If it lasts 5 years, they will lose a good 10 trillions eur. Well done US vassals.US has no allies only slaves.
Ukrops forces ready to attack Transnistria, to steal the weapons and expel russian forces.Macron is behind this, new PM asked to night for RU army to leave asap.French légion is there to 'help'.
Yep thanks, I'll have to talk about this in the next one
@spam
The main reasons US Regime wants Ukr is for 1. Biolabs and slavs to use as biowar Guinea pigs 2. Massive money laundering for the Regime 3. Staging area for infiltration and sabotage of Russia.
Sure there are corporate interests in Ukr but those pale in comparison.
But the corporations pay for the politicians. Ukraine recently changed the laws on farm land so foreigners and corporations could buy it., im sure that wasnt their own idea. Someone paid off the US advisors to get that done. As Russia/DPR/LPR move forward everything behind them owned by outside entities is confiscated. USA has 300 biolabs, presumably 200 of them are in other former soviet countries.
You forgot about Crowdstrike.
All areas producing wheat are US Australia owned, zelensky only forgot to tell his people.He also sold the country to Blackrock.
Russia must finaly go for regime change in Kiev, decapitate the power (junta) otherwise it will be a neverending story
and capture the evidence but then make the bio-labs into mini exhibits open for visits.
"Hence, I suspect Russia has its main vectors/objectives set in a fluid Jeet Kune Do fashion, such that they can be swapped momentarily. "
To quote Bruce Lee, "You know, baby. This bamboo is longer, more flexible, and very much alive. And when your flashy routine cannot keep up with the speed and elusiveness of this thing here; all I can say is you will be in deep trouble."
Lee was a student of Sun Tzu. And as this SMO escalates into actual open warfare, I'm truly impressed at how the Russian leadership is applying the lessons from the Art of War in real time.
haha! Nice..
Tonight Russia announced officialy that the SBU was the only perpetrator of the attack on the Crimea bridge. It is important as no more talk about UK MI6 involment, VP can use that to declare war on ukraine tuesday, the next day the Duma in special assembly meeting can legalize VP statement and declares war on 404.
Crimean bridge terror attack proved to be organized by Ukrainian special service
12 people involved in this crime identified, eight of them in custody.
https://tass.com/russia/1578535
Yep that's insightful of you. Personally I'm skeptical they'll "declare war" though anything is possible, but Putin will likely use it as a steady build up of the pressure and critical mass toward justifying a more aggressive posture. I wish I was wrong and he did declare it but, don't think that's happening particularly because at this point it doesn't open up any particularly useful options. The only real thing a declaration of war can add is the full usage of Russia's conscript forces, but that would seem illogical considering Russia hasn't even put into action its full mobilized force yet, let alone needs any help from conscripts at this time.
Lee is usually overrated. Check it out on the Internet. Only one recording of him in a real fight exists. This went down as a far less lop-sided affair than his movie stunts. Even disregarding that, he was very much a counter-striker and never wrestled. This style of fighting, while innovative in his day, has been superseded by more holistic approaches, notably MMA. Lee would hardly stand a chance against modern-day MMA fighters like Khabib and McGregor.
Well to be fair, Lee is probably about 6 weightclasses below Khabib/Macgregor, he seems like around 110lbs soaking wet lol.
At his heaviest, Lee was 145lb but because of his crazy work load between 1971 and 1973 - he was filming TV shows in L.A. and completed four movies and filming a 5th one in Hong Kong when he died - he lost a lot of weight and actually suffered two heat strokes. The second one was fatal.
It wasn't heat stroke that killed Bruce Lee. He suffered a brain edema possibly caused by a reaction to a prescription painkiller.
Could be. But odds were greater that it was heat stroke.
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/bruce-lee-may-have-died-from-a-heat-stroke-new-book-claims
That film wasn't of him in a real fight. It was of him doing full contact sparring which he did a lot of at a time when no one in the U.S. martial arts circles were doing it.
I'm not saying Bruce Lee was the same superhuman as his movie characters. Only that his ideas regarding fitness and combatives were legit. And that he was an apt student of Sun Tzu.
In real life, Lee carried both a pistol and a belt buckle knife for self defense because he knew the differences between the movies and the streets. I only cited him because of the JKD reference.
Also, his contemporary, Michael Chan, who was a gangster, a movie star and a kickboxer agreed that Lee would have often lost in the ring but would be hard to beat in a street fight.
There are numerous people that knew Lee personally in Hong Kong, and in the USA, and have testified to his rep as a notoriously good street fighter, they witnessed the action.
In fact that's the main reason his father sent him out of HK to San Francisco, to get him out of that 'lifestyle'.
Once he became 'famous' he was constantly challenged by thugs and he never backed down and always gave them beatings.
He wasn't superhuman, correct, but he was a capable street fighter and extremely strong and fit. I can't remember who said it, but he had the strength of a 14 plus stone man but was only 10-11 stone in weight.
Yeah, I've met and trained with some folks who were friends with Lee's family.
When Wong Jock Man and Lee had their fight, Lee's student, Jimmy Lee locked the door to their school and stood near where he had a gun hidden in case things got ugly and Wong had some of his guys nearby to storm them.
What made Lee formidable was that not only was he a fitness fanatic but, aside from being a teacher, he was also always a student of anyone he could learn from.
Whether it was Judo from Hayward Nishioka or Filipino Kali from his student Dan Inosanto, he was always down to pick up new skills.
Anyways, regarding the quote about the fluidity of a Jeet Kune Do strategy that was in the article..........it brought to mind Lee's Sun Tzu inspired mindset which we see being played out in real warfare. Maskirovka was beautifully illustrated in these sequences.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec4qwXAxY50
True dat. Many have argued that he was the first MMA fighter.
He is a fascinating subject, but unfortunately this isn't the place as we risk hijacking the thread.
p.s. is this AltaiShanyu? hehe
Yes sir.👍🏽
Will Russia declare NATO a hostile combatant in the coming announcement? They've sent out many warnings, only to be ignored and/or laughed at like Munich 2007. Will they begin targeting decision making centers? Hypersonics make it easy. Wondering also if Moon's observation regarding AFU/NATO tanks missing from the clobber list lately means they're holding back hoping to use a mobile reserve in case of breakthrough.
Declaring it a hostile combatant could happen. Striking decision centers, if you mean Ukrainian ones like in Kiev--could be, but I personally doubt it. For 2 reasons:
1. firstly I believe Putin wants the 'image' of having power handed over in a more 'proper' way, rather than assassinating his rival leadership.
2. I believe there's no real point in doing so because everyone knows guys like Zelensky are just vapid puppets anyway. Who cares if he gets taken out in an airstrike? There's far worse radical militant nationalists that would just take power behind him. And taking him out would only anger the globe as the optics of it would look really bad. So I highly doubt that'll happen.
But with the mention of hypersonics, coincidentally today a statement came out from chief of Rostec:
"The Russian Federation has increased the production of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system, said the head of Rostec Sergey Chemezov.
"I got into production a long time ago, initially there was no need for such a quantity. We are now increasing it," Chemezov said in an interview with the Military Acceptance program. He stated that Rostec is currently producing colossal volumes of products for the RF Ministry of Defense. "Volumes have grown significantly, in some cases by 50 times," Chemezov said."
As for your 'NATO tanks missing from clobber list', I didn't quite understand what you mean? Who is holding back, AFU or Russia?
How about striking NATO decision centers located in Ukraine? Russia doesn't seem to have done that, or perhaps only to some smaller degree. Killing NATO officers would be a form of escalation for sure.
As for Moon, what he means is the Russian MoD clobber list. It has also been noted by other commentators. Ukrainian tanks sudenly seem to have gone missing from the battlefield as witnessed by none of them being reported as having been destroyed over the last few days or so. That's unless they have been fitted with some new-fangled cloaking device, of course <IRONY OFF>. Moon does speculate to what extent it's due to UAF running out of tanks, or having decided to pull them back in anticipation of a Russian offensive.
I'm almost certain they're definitely pulling a lot back in preparation for defense. Don't underestimate AFU. There's tons of nonsense and amateurishness among them, but they're also extremely capable leaders/fighters of the Soviet tradition melded with the best of the best of NATO leadership controlling them at every point. They're not stupid, which is why Russia hasn't completely 'run them through' yet, and why they were able to inflict certain embarrassing pseudo-defeats on Russia up to this time.
They definitely have tanks left. Not a great deal of course, comparatively speaking (compared to Russia) but by my estimates they likely have at least 200+ and some people believe it's even much more like 500-800.
That might sound like a lot but considering Russia has thousands it's really nothing. I believe they started with about 1200-1500 usable ones (2500-3500 on paper, pre-war, but most were mothballed or not in working order), and Russia destroyed somewhere in the 1000-1300 range of them, but they also captured some and Poland and others gave them another few hundred. So when you do all the addition/substraction in my opinion it leaves them with ~200-300 at the most, and of course they were hoping for another 300-500 from NATO desperately but now it's looking like NATO will only realistically deliver 50-70 if not less (well Leopards and such, Poland is set to allegedly send another 120 of T-72 variants)
Europe is self-destructing.
Their elites are all vassals of D.C. and most of their people are starting to resent it.
Biden and Norway fucked over Germany worse than any action by Russia.
And because we are forcing Europe to buy our petrol after closing down domestic oil production, our trucks which deliver goods might be in grave danger from fuel shortages.
Nord Stream 2 is operable as we speak…Germany could start importing gas through it tomorrow if they wanted to. Putin is the only party with motives to blow up the pipeline:
https://genefrenkle.substack.com/p/putin-obviously-blew-up-nord-stream
Conspiracy theory...just one question: cui bono?
http://johnhelmer.net/seymour-hersh-defends-cia-in-plot-to-attack-biden-re-election-hersh-also-attacks-investigative-journalists-with-his-own-plot-to-feed-them-crumbs/
Russia didn't blow it up, although that WAS an option I myself considered initially long ago, prior to major revelations and too much other proof that shows NATO was responsible. However, with that said, that's not to say Russia is not benefiting from or even happy to some extents with the outcome, and arguably even 'aiding' some of the fallout for a variety of reasons you likely touched on.
If Russia was truly indignant about the incident they would have reacted much more fiercely but are treating it pretty nonchalantly. I think because they have all these scenarios gamed out and they know how to benefit from it no matter which way it goes, of course the destruction of Nord Stream would've been an obvious and easily foreseen culmination. In fact it may have been a sort of 'trap' set by Russia by goading the U.S. into it, to destroy U.S./German relations
Well, Hurricane Ian didn’t hit Louisiana and so the price of natural gas was only juiced for a few days. Putin blowing up NS paid for itself with risk premium but had Ian hit Louisiana Putin would have won the war.
It would've been an attractive hypothesis if it weren't for the now abundance of evidence showing NATO aircraft circling the area, new eyewitness testimony just released 2 days ago of an anonymous U.S. servicemen who witnessed the Nato divers go into the water during the Baltops 22 exercises, etc. There's just too big a preponderance of evidence and cui bono now, but like I said, there's good chance Russia is 'judo-throwing' the outcome either way in a favorable direction
Keep the Americans in the Russians out and the Germans down and I would add, pick feckless, Quisling, compradors for leadership.. I'm pointing at you Schultz the sausage.
A political ultimatum for NATO is the only way out of the current situation - Alexey Pilko
The results of the Munich Security Conference allow us to draw an unambiguous conclusion - NATO will wage a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, regardless of the risks. Moreover, there are no risks for the countries of the alliance, Russia does not create them. This is why the United States and its allies are quite confident. And they behave boldly - the volume of arms supplies is growing, and the entire intelligence complex of the North Atlantic bloc is working in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In fact, Moscow was forced to play by someone else's rules, although Moscow was to blame for that. It was necessary to respond more harshly to the increased escalation of NATO, and not to speak of "red lines" which no longer frighten anyone. Russia reacts late to the actions of the enemy, and its political apparatus is in a kind of inhibited state and cannot get out of it.
Since the start of the war, in response to multiple rate hikes from the West, the Russian side has reacted only twice: it has started a partial mobilization (with a six-month delay) and an infrastructure war (which is obviously not carried out to full force). At the same time, she made many critical mistakes, which in world politics are interpreted as a clear weakness: the withdrawal of troops from Kiev after the Istanbul negotiations, the conclusion of a "grain agreement", abandonment of Kherson. And this is not a complete list.
It is very difficult to correct the current situation. Most likely, without using the nuclear asset (where Russia has certain advantages) it is simply impossible. Playing the "nuclear card" does not necessarily mean the use of weapons of mass destruction, but a set of measures intended to convince the enemy of the necessity of their use under certain conditions clearly defined at the highest political level.
What can be the algorithm of actions? First, in the very near future Russia is expected to officially withdraw from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Secondly, immediately after that, large-scale nuclear tests should be carried out. On a large scale - this means comparable to that of Khrushchev on Novaya Zemlya of the 1961 model. Thirdly, exercises should also be conducted using tactical nuclear weapons. In addition, it is to be made available to Russian troops in the Kaliningrad region, Crimea and Belarus, as well as to equip Russian Navy ships with it.
Once these measures have been taken, the time will come for a political ultimatum which will make it clear that if arms deliveries to Ukraine continue, Russia will launch limited strikes with conventional precision weapons against logistics centers in the countries of NATO. If the alliance responds with strikes against Russian troops in Ukraine or an attack on Russian territory, limited nuclear strikes against NATO military infrastructure in Europe will follow.
Moreover, this ultimatum should not be some kind of rationalization, but rather specific in nature: with an indication of the timetable and goals. The task of such a policy is to create critical risks for the existence of the countries of Europe and North America if they continue to provide military support to Ukraine. As an intermediate stage of escalation, one can also use the demonstrative destruction of part of the enemy's satellite constellation, which provides information to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, ”explains analyst Alexei Pilko
Pretty good though it gets a few things wrong. Kiev withdrawal had nothing to do with Istanbul, it was a foregone conclusion already as Russia's tiny expeditionary force was not going to accomplish the long term objectives there and a massive re-orientation of force/objectives was already a long gone conclusion before that.
As for nuclear tests, there was much discussion a few months ago already that RUssia had reportedly 'signaled' that it could consider conducting new nuclear tests in the medium term future, so that's a possibility.
As for equipping ships, we know by the claims of Norway that the new Russian ship just sailed off into Barents Sea armed with nukes for the first time since cold war so that's happening too. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-nuclear-ships-norway-ukraine-war/
We'll see what Putin says in the upcoming address as there's possibility for new elevated rhetoric that matches some/many of the points outlined in this article.
Thanks
Jeet Kune Do. I trained with Dan Inosanto family of martial artists.
Whatever is planned, by both sides, it is a dangerous time. Biden visit is awkward as he will come with lots of mil support/protection = US/RU clash risk. If POTUS hints at talks/ceasefire then all RU plans will have to be put on hold, as RU is rational (USA has 'de-escalation dominance' I call it)? Or, with the heightened tension having POTUS there, a false-flag decapitation strike on B&Z would be manipulated into WW3 - what western country would have the mettle to say 'hang on let's investigate this'. How should RU counter such a scenario....?
Lot of people in the US would be very happy to get rid of the zombie, including in the Dems party as they don't want him as candidate for 2024.Lot of ukies also would be very happy to see ZE gone.
what's funny is it already happened last year, Biden was in Poland as Russia slammed Lvov (on Polish border) with huge strikes just a few kilometers away. So we might get a replay of that https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/26/rocket-attacks-ukraines-lviv-biden-poland-00020680
"Note, the specific confirmation of something we predicted here in one of the recent reports, which is that the offensive is likely to kick off, not all at once but in several stages in order to maximize confusion, allow a little lead time for AFU to frantically send reserves to one direction to caulk the flow, only for a completely different direction to massively kick off into un-reinforced territory."
I would argue that this has already been going on for a while now. Russia has been attacking at points all along the front, except for Kherson. This has drawn off many Ukrainian reserve brigades, two for Ugledar alone, for example.
What I find interesting is that where the Russian met only light resistance, from weak territorial formations or heavily depleted regular infantry brigades, they kept pushing. But they stopped, or even fell back, when faced with more capable resistance, which usually came from hastily brought in Ukrainian reserves. That very strongly suggests that along most of the front at least, the primary objective for these Russian attacks were not specific geographical locations (Ugledar, Marinka, Kupyansk, etc), but to force the Ukrainians into spending their reserves.
And if Russia were to launch a major offensive soon, a smart general would, if he had the opportunity to do so, start with some preliminary 'faints' which would force the Ukrainians to spend their reserves prematurely, or lose those important locations. It's not proof of an imminent offensive though, as the greater Russian objective with these 'faints' may simply have been to draw these Ukrainian reserve formations into artillery range, and do some more 'demilitarising'. Or, as we talked about earlier, going from 'death by a thousand paper cuts', to 'death by a hundred knife cuts'.
But it doesn't contradict the possibility of an imminent offensive either. Nevertheless, I'm still hesitant about any single 'big arrow' offensive setting off soon, along just one front sector. Major attacks along a number of different axis in different places seems more likely to me.
Transiting Ukranian reserves along roads would be perfect targets for a newly active and deeper striking Russian air force.
you're right there's been some 'confirmation' recently that alot of Russia's new actions like the Ugledar direction was in fact to draw UA forces, which worked as they had to drastically pull down forces from Kremennaya to Ugledar and shuffle them around, which led to Krem front collapsing quite a bit, etc.
Thanks for the analysis. It will be very interesting to see what Biden/Blinken/Neuland decide to do in response. This is their shit show, and they won't just back down now. The question is, what are the options they are considering?
With the spate of train derailments, and the chemical fire and poisonous clouds and contaminated air/water/soil threatening 250 million people east of the Mississippi River, there is more opposition to our involvement in this war than ever.
Only the shitlibs in Blue Cities are still flying the Ukrainian flag.
I can only hope the poisonous gas and acid rain falls on Washington D.C. and Delaware.
America has grown much stronger thanks to Putin’s asinine invasion of Ukraine as it turbocharged our LNG export industry. Putin is as big a dumbass as George W Bush!
How does it help us when our truckers have to pay more for fuel because all of it is being shipped to Europe?
If our supply chain for food breaks down the cities are going to implode.
LNG is liquid natural gas—natural gas isn’t expensive in America right now. It was expensive but that also had a lot to do with Hurricane Ida and Texas Deep Freeze…now it’s back to being inexpensive and we are the biggest LNG exporter!
We grow weaker by the day. What kind of fantasy world are you living in?
They don't control the military. They are a shell. All they have is the CIA to LARP as military. Trump got on Air Force One with the Nuclear Football on "Inauguration Day" and Putin knows it. There's video of it. The whole thing is a pageant.
Instead of difficult destruction of Dnieper bridges, a combination of options III (eatern cauldron) and II (McGregor) might work well.
Yep, I agree BUT it all depends how much forces Russia really has hidden away. Whether it's the 200k+ mobiks we think, or the 'stealth mobilized' 500-700k some (like Macgregor) think might be the case. If it's on the lower end then I don't think it's enough to pull off such vast disparate campaigns
Dutch:
Situatierapport: Update 18/2 – Grote oorlog op komst bevestigd – Kalmte voor de storm
https://www.frontnieuws.com/situatierapport-update-18-2-grote-oorlog-op-komst-bevestigd-kalmte-voor-de-storm/
Pretty good, Simplicius. You are being quoted on https://voxday.net/2023/02/19/the-offensive-begins-next-week/ and Alexander Mercouris yesterday or day before.
Thanks buddy, that's big!
Biden just arriving in Kiev.
The New Moon is tomorrow. It starts then.
Interesting
hope springs eternal. Babyface Tsar's fake and gay liddle war on Ukraine has been such a bust so far, that any kind of westward motion will be amazing.
Putin is now Xi’s gimp and if he gets out of line the ball gag will go back in!
It doesn't take long for the trolls to find any sensible blogs/substacks.
welcome to these two twats.
Putin is as big a dumbass as George W Bush! But at least Iraq had oil, all Ukraine has is mouths to feed and bodies to warm!
And 12 trillions in minerals gone in the Donbass, welcome in the real world.Wheat has been sold to monsanto and cargill, ukies in fact has zero wheat anymore.It was the most corrupted country in the world, now western ukieland will become the poorest one, even Chisinau will do better.
How much wheat does Switzerland have?? Ukraine will end up better as America and the EU invest billions in their country so they can better integrate with the West.
LOL troll, there will be no Ukraine for your NAZI loving heroes to invest in
Ukie troll
WHICH BIDEN is meeting with Zelensky on the 21st? Hope they pick the "conscious one " for the meet. Are they going to discuss the situation in Ukraine or is for another round of money laundering? (wink wink).
Excellen Sitrep, Congrats.
Thanks! and good to see you here
Glad I found your blog.
I usually spend a lot of time mocking "5D Bloggers" with their breathless predictions about how Russia is going to turn everything around in exactly two weeks.
But you bring up a lot of good arguments.
I do think that you get lost in the details. The most important factors is simply troop numbers, force concentration. Russia can't advance against fortified positions against superior numbers.
I mean look at Bakhmut. Months of a meat grinder to eke out a hundred meters here and there. And now Prigozhin says he's not sure he can even take it.
The offensive in the south? No progress either.
We've all been waiting for something big swooping down from Belarus, but, again, where are the troop numbers?
Also, I strongly disagree with your analysis that the Russians are about to start sending planes deep into Ukraine and again and targeting bridges and so on.
But hey, let's see.
I'd love to be proven wrong on this one.
Rolo you're concentrating on how much 'land' Russia has taken; they focus on attrition of NAZI troops. held/gained ground isn't the aim currently.
And they have made progress. Don't you think destroying two iterations of Ukie armies, and their air force and navy too, progress?
And as for troop numbers, past numbers are not important, Russia has hundreds of thousands champing at the bit waiting for the Go signal.
First of all, NAZI NAZI NAZI isn't an argument. Most of the men are conscripts. Normal Ukrainians forced to fight and die by Zelensky who is not even ethnically Ukrainian. Am I a Nazi for pointing our that the entire Kiev government is from the same tribe as Zelensky?
>And they have made progress. Don't you think destroying two iterations of Ukie armies, and their air force and navy too, progress?
They didn't though. Ukraine is closing in on 100k losses with Russia probably 70k.
>Russia has hundreds of thousands champing at the bit waiting for the Go signal.
Russia is outnumbered. Ukraine has more.
With your previous post I thought you were just innocently misinformed. Now it is clear you are either a troll, a dreamer, or just a moron.
Russia is outnumbered? LOL
Strelkov gang anti Putin, 6th column idiots 'hurrah patriot' like the Saker used to say..
ah yes, the patriots are the true traitors to Russia! t. Saker.
Russia has less troops in the field, yes.
LMAO
Well, I can see why you'd field some of the opinions you do because your logic is premised on a lot of very faulty foundations. Russian losses are definitely not 70k, not even half of that. But it depends on what you consider 'Russian' and what you consider 'losses'. If 'losses' to you are casualties, and if casualties are defined in the broadest sense, as they often are, which doesn't merely limit it to KIA -- and if by 'Russian' you mean all allied forces, which includes LPR, DPR, Wagner, all paramilitary, volunteer, PMC, etc., then total casualty in broadest sense of the word, which includes permanent debilitating injuries as 'irrecoverable losses' are likely in the 50k+ range.
But for RUSSIAN forces only, their current KIA is somewhere in the 12-17k range, their further 'irrecoverable' (limbless, etc) could be another 5-10k, although we've had many different reports attesting to Russia's combat medicine abilities ("98% injured return to combat" etc), so it could be even less than that.
LPR/DPR has an additional 10kish KIA casualties and maybe another 10-15k 'irrecoverable' (let's call it 20k total "casualties") and another 5-10k for various paramilitary/volunteer forces. So total KIA for all Allied forces is in the 25k range, maybe 30k at very most. Probably 40k-50k "irrecoverable" if you count lost limbs etc.
Ukraine is likely 50-100k KIA and another 100k irrecoverable (an insider leak long ago showed they had 60k with lost limbs/legs, and that was at least 5 months ago).
I have heard of 150 Ukie KIA. McGregor for one IIRC. And wounded more so. 30K MIA too apparently.
They had 600K prior to the SMO didn't they?
Maybe on paper but my estimate is they had closer to 200k on the eve of SMO, despite what Zelensky might bluster about with his inflated numbers. From that 200k they lost 100-150k by my estimates but also mobilized another 100-150k via their 11+ rounds of mobilization, so in my book that would put them at around 200-250k now as we speak. On the actual frontlines, I believe the only have somewhere in 150k range or less at this point but they do have some reserves, of at least another 100k depending how you count them. As Macgregor I believe said in one video, he said Zelensky's claim of "700k" personnel is if you count every non military 'combat capable' individual like various police, border guards, MP (military police) and other law enforcement type of units, but strictly speaking of real combat units it's much less.
It's impossible to say for certain though. All I know is there's strong allegations they have somewhere in the range of 20-25 new brigades slowly building in the rear and various EU countries, which is equivalent to anywhere from 50-80k+ troops, meant to be used in the 'Spring offensive'.
"As Macgregor I believe said in one video, he said Zelensky's claim of "700k" personnel is if you count every non military 'combat capable' individual like various police, border guards, MP (military police) and other law enforcement type of units, but strictly speaking of real combat units it's much less. "
Ah yes, he did make that point.
When we see the quality of 'mobilized' ukies, like kidnapped in daylight in the street, taken by force in supermarkets, offices etc...i doubt these 'mobs' will be of very high quality and motivation near zero even after training even on nato standards...don't forget that the only goal of the neocons + nato is to kill as many russians as possible to 'weaken' Russia, and for VP not being reelected(if candidate of course?) in 2024.These idiots seems to believe once VVP gone a miracle will happen and king Navalny or any other stooge will take over without any reaction from Stavska and co..keep on dreamin nato, neocons.Nobody in the West cares about Ukraine even less about ukies.They just want a 'double header' in their dreams steal all energy, minerals etc from both 404 and Russia.
But, yes I've seen many estimates of losses as high as 300-600k, Anything's possible as none of us know with 100% certainty but my personal estimates are 100-150k irrecoverable losses most likely and from various algorithmic extrapolations I've seen, like this one: https://twitter.com/ZaTritsa/status/1627225815652962304
UKR defense minister reported 3 weeks ago: 257k KIA + 35k MIA, reported to Pentagon.No nr for WIA +POW.
Wow. That KIA number gels with the often reported 5K killed a week.
I'm sorry but even 20k dead for Russia is so untethered from reality idk what to even respond.
I guess I'd share a Russian saying: the true believers always get shot first.
We're very confident of our figures, they're not guesses or conjecture but based on long accurate and proven analysis. Anyone who thinks Russia has more than 20k casualties is far removed from reality and is mostly just grasping/coping as there is zero evidence to suggest that. But like I said, this topic is so heavily vested in semantics and wordplay it really has to be extremely clearly defined what each side is referring to when they say "Russian" and when they say "casualty".
Are your sources MacGregor and Ritter?
I'm genuinely curious.
Also, perhaps we could have a podcast chat? I don't know if you do that sort of thing, but I love to do them myself.
How can there be such a gaping disparity in casualties between the two warring sides? Russian preponderance in artillery doesn't justify a whopping 4:1 favourable casualty ratio. Any army would self-disintegrate when placed under such adversity, that's common sense. But the AFU is still standing and more, doesn't give up an inch of ground without furious fighting.
Months ago the Ukrainians were even rumoured to have managed to reduce the shelling ratio from 1:9 to 2:7 against them. Now they are suffering again, probably because of the lull in waiting a new Western dispatch, after having exhausted munitions and shells from the previous one. Russian offensives through open ground at the beginning of the war failed with high losses. L/DPR in Marinka and Avdivka have suffered grievously throughout the whole year.
So a bit more Ukrainian losses, but definitely not in the 4:1 proportions discussed here, that Russia would achieve fighting spear-hurling Yanomamos from the Amazonas.
Oh, and they were forced to get aged-looking Nazi Tattoos? Ok. lol
you think there are 800k Aryan Nation Nazis in the Ukrainian army?
Bandera was imprisoned by the Nazis for being an unhinged psycho, just FYI.
very low IQ comment.
Aryan Nation? LMAO! Nice strawman. They're called Azov Battalion. Ukraine is already lost, pal. Let it go.
TWO MORE WEEKS!
TRUST THE PLAN!
#WWG1WGA #MAGA #5DCHESS
Thanks buddy, I really enjoy your articles too even though I find myself disagreeing with alot/most of it hehe, but it gives me a lot of food for thought. And I like to "keep myself honest" so to speak by rejecting the echochamber and keeping my ears to the ground for other perspectives.
While you're right UA has superior numbers currently, I'm not sure how you're dismissing the likely 200-250k (or 500-700k depending on who you ask, though admittedly I'm skeptical of that number) mobiks that haven't entered the fray yet? Even Shoigu announced only 40k out of the 300k were put into action thus far, that means at minimum, even IF we presuppose the 300k number as accurate and no 'stealth mobilization' occurred, that leaves a whopping 240k still sitting on the sidelines ready to enter combat. And that number is more than double what Russia has used previously in theater. So the logic goes that, if Russia can be doing pretty well and winning with 100k or less, then how can one doubt their successful advancement with 400-500k total?
"Offensive in the south? No progress." - You appear to be treating it as if all Russian troops are in theater. Do you know something we don't? Like I mentioned, I'm operating under the premise that 250k mobiks are still sitting out. I assume you're of the assumption that ALL mobilized have been committed to combat already? That's definitely not the case.
As for the planes, well we're already seeing it happen. In fact just as I type this there's new reports on twitter from Ukrainian minister crying about Russia's big uptick in tactical aircraft strike usage.
Of course it remains a matter of volume or intensity. To you it may not count if it's not 'all out mass air assault with complete impunity', etc. For me the standards are a little lower, I'd consider it a big doctrinal shift and escalation even if we start seeing a decently noticeable upswing.
With that said, IF and only IF the rumors of massive new air assets being stationed on the borders are true, then I can't see any other possibility than an escalation of the sort we're discussing because there would be nothing else for such massive amounts of aircraft to hit OTHER than things deeper in the rear. They can't ALL be doing frontline CAS, etc.
But a lot of this stuff is premised on the big "IFS" of whether the various rumors/reports about force numbers are true or not.
You WILL be proven wrong.