Lol, twitter cope is great, its why i get banned so much. Those trucks cant carry any grain unless someone shovels it into sacks. People are so dumb.
Whatever happens it wont be what we expected, i learned that in 2014.
In this day and age i would have trucks trucking everywhere BUT where i was really going. Same with the field hospitals, you can wait until it starts before putting one of those up if you want, probably takes 2 hrs with enough guys and a plan. And Russians can drill better than anyone.
The one thing i would do is eliminate all the reasons the us wants ukraine, destroy cargils elevators, destroy everything monsanto owns etc.
"Hence, I suspect Russia has its main vectors/objectives set in a fluid Jeet Kune Do fashion, such that they can be swapped momentarily. "
To quote Bruce Lee, "You know, baby. This bamboo is longer, more flexible, and very much alive. And when your flashy routine cannot keep up with the speed and elusiveness of this thing here; all I can say is you will be in deep trouble."
Lee was a student of Sun Tzu. And as this SMO escalates into actual open warfare, I'm truly impressed at how the Russian leadership is applying the lessons from the Art of War in real time.
Will Russia declare NATO a hostile combatant in the coming announcement? They've sent out many warnings, only to be ignored and/or laughed at like Munich 2007. Will they begin targeting decision making centers? Hypersonics make it easy. Wondering also if Moon's observation regarding AFU/NATO tanks missing from the clobber list lately means they're holding back hoping to use a mobile reserve in case of breakthrough.
Whatever is planned, by both sides, it is a dangerous time. Biden visit is awkward as he will come with lots of mil support/protection = US/RU clash risk. If POTUS hints at talks/ceasefire then all RU plans will have to be put on hold, as RU is rational (USA has 'de-escalation dominance' I call it)? Or, with the heightened tension having POTUS there, a false-flag decapitation strike on B&Z would be manipulated into WW3 - what western country would have the mettle to say 'hang on let's investigate this'. How should RU counter such a scenario....?
"Note, the specific confirmation of something we predicted here in one of the recent reports, which is that the offensive is likely to kick off, not all at once but in several stages in order to maximize confusion, allow a little lead time for AFU to frantically send reserves to one direction to caulk the flow, only for a completely different direction to massively kick off into un-reinforced territory."
I would argue that this has already been going on for a while now. Russia has been attacking at points all along the front, except for Kherson. This has drawn off many Ukrainian reserve brigades, two for Ugledar alone, for example.
What I find interesting is that where the Russian met only light resistance, from weak territorial formations or heavily depleted regular infantry brigades, they kept pushing. But they stopped, or even fell back, when faced with more capable resistance, which usually came from hastily brought in Ukrainian reserves. That very strongly suggests that along most of the front at least, the primary objective for these Russian attacks were not specific geographical locations (Ugledar, Marinka, Kupyansk, etc), but to force the Ukrainians into spending their reserves.
And if Russia were to launch a major offensive soon, a smart general would, if he had the opportunity to do so, start with some preliminary 'faints' which would force the Ukrainians to spend their reserves prematurely, or lose those important locations. It's not proof of an imminent offensive though, as the greater Russian objective with these 'faints' may simply have been to draw these Ukrainian reserve formations into artillery range, and do some more 'demilitarising'. Or, as we talked about earlier, going from 'death by a thousand paper cuts', to 'death by a hundred knife cuts'.
But it doesn't contradict the possibility of an imminent offensive either. Nevertheless, I'm still hesitant about any single 'big arrow' offensive setting off soon, along just one front sector. Major attacks along a number of different axis in different places seems more likely to me.
Thanks for the analysis. It will be very interesting to see what Biden/Blinken/Neuland decide to do in response. This is their shit show, and they won't just back down now. The question is, what are the options they are considering?
hope springs eternal. Babyface Tsar's fake and gay liddle war on Ukraine has been such a bust so far, that any kind of westward motion will be amazing.
WHICH BIDEN is meeting with Zelensky on the 21st? Hope they pick the "conscious one " for the meet. Are they going to discuss the situation in Ukraine or is for another round of money laundering? (wink wink).
I usually spend a lot of time mocking "5D Bloggers" with their breathless predictions about how Russia is going to turn everything around in exactly two weeks.
But you bring up a lot of good arguments.
I do think that you get lost in the details. The most important factors is simply troop numbers, force concentration. Russia can't advance against fortified positions against superior numbers.
I mean look at Bakhmut. Months of a meat grinder to eke out a hundred meters here and there. And now Prigozhin says he's not sure he can even take it.
The offensive in the south? No progress either.
We've all been waiting for something big swooping down from Belarus, but, again, where are the troop numbers?
Also, I strongly disagree with your analysis that the Russians are about to start sending planes deep into Ukraine and again and targeting bridges and so on.
Lol, twitter cope is great, its why i get banned so much. Those trucks cant carry any grain unless someone shovels it into sacks. People are so dumb.
Whatever happens it wont be what we expected, i learned that in 2014.
In this day and age i would have trucks trucking everywhere BUT where i was really going. Same with the field hospitals, you can wait until it starts before putting one of those up if you want, probably takes 2 hrs with enough guys and a plan. And Russians can drill better than anyone.
The one thing i would do is eliminate all the reasons the us wants ukraine, destroy cargils elevators, destroy everything monsanto owns etc.
"Hence, I suspect Russia has its main vectors/objectives set in a fluid Jeet Kune Do fashion, such that they can be swapped momentarily. "
To quote Bruce Lee, "You know, baby. This bamboo is longer, more flexible, and very much alive. And when your flashy routine cannot keep up with the speed and elusiveness of this thing here; all I can say is you will be in deep trouble."
Lee was a student of Sun Tzu. And as this SMO escalates into actual open warfare, I'm truly impressed at how the Russian leadership is applying the lessons from the Art of War in real time.
Will Russia declare NATO a hostile combatant in the coming announcement? They've sent out many warnings, only to be ignored and/or laughed at like Munich 2007. Will they begin targeting decision making centers? Hypersonics make it easy. Wondering also if Moon's observation regarding AFU/NATO tanks missing from the clobber list lately means they're holding back hoping to use a mobile reserve in case of breakthrough.
Jeet Kune Do. I trained with Dan Inosanto family of martial artists.
Whatever is planned, by both sides, it is a dangerous time. Biden visit is awkward as he will come with lots of mil support/protection = US/RU clash risk. If POTUS hints at talks/ceasefire then all RU plans will have to be put on hold, as RU is rational (USA has 'de-escalation dominance' I call it)? Or, with the heightened tension having POTUS there, a false-flag decapitation strike on B&Z would be manipulated into WW3 - what western country would have the mettle to say 'hang on let's investigate this'. How should RU counter such a scenario....?
"Note, the specific confirmation of something we predicted here in one of the recent reports, which is that the offensive is likely to kick off, not all at once but in several stages in order to maximize confusion, allow a little lead time for AFU to frantically send reserves to one direction to caulk the flow, only for a completely different direction to massively kick off into un-reinforced territory."
I would argue that this has already been going on for a while now. Russia has been attacking at points all along the front, except for Kherson. This has drawn off many Ukrainian reserve brigades, two for Ugledar alone, for example.
What I find interesting is that where the Russian met only light resistance, from weak territorial formations or heavily depleted regular infantry brigades, they kept pushing. But they stopped, or even fell back, when faced with more capable resistance, which usually came from hastily brought in Ukrainian reserves. That very strongly suggests that along most of the front at least, the primary objective for these Russian attacks were not specific geographical locations (Ugledar, Marinka, Kupyansk, etc), but to force the Ukrainians into spending their reserves.
And if Russia were to launch a major offensive soon, a smart general would, if he had the opportunity to do so, start with some preliminary 'faints' which would force the Ukrainians to spend their reserves prematurely, or lose those important locations. It's not proof of an imminent offensive though, as the greater Russian objective with these 'faints' may simply have been to draw these Ukrainian reserve formations into artillery range, and do some more 'demilitarising'. Or, as we talked about earlier, going from 'death by a thousand paper cuts', to 'death by a hundred knife cuts'.
But it doesn't contradict the possibility of an imminent offensive either. Nevertheless, I'm still hesitant about any single 'big arrow' offensive setting off soon, along just one front sector. Major attacks along a number of different axis in different places seems more likely to me.
Thanks for the analysis. It will be very interesting to see what Biden/Blinken/Neuland decide to do in response. This is their shit show, and they won't just back down now. The question is, what are the options they are considering?
Instead of difficult destruction of Dnieper bridges, a combination of options III (eatern cauldron) and II (McGregor) might work well.
Dutch:
Situatierapport: Update 18/2 – Grote oorlog op komst bevestigd – Kalmte voor de storm
https://www.frontnieuws.com/situatierapport-update-18-2-grote-oorlog-op-komst-bevestigd-kalmte-voor-de-storm/
Pretty good, Simplicius. You are being quoted on https://voxday.net/2023/02/19/the-offensive-begins-next-week/ and Alexander Mercouris yesterday or day before.
The New Moon is tomorrow. It starts then.
hope springs eternal. Babyface Tsar's fake and gay liddle war on Ukraine has been such a bust so far, that any kind of westward motion will be amazing.
WHICH BIDEN is meeting with Zelensky on the 21st? Hope they pick the "conscious one " for the meet. Are they going to discuss the situation in Ukraine or is for another round of money laundering? (wink wink).
Excellen Sitrep, Congrats.
Glad I found your blog.
I usually spend a lot of time mocking "5D Bloggers" with their breathless predictions about how Russia is going to turn everything around in exactly two weeks.
But you bring up a lot of good arguments.
I do think that you get lost in the details. The most important factors is simply troop numbers, force concentration. Russia can't advance against fortified positions against superior numbers.
I mean look at Bakhmut. Months of a meat grinder to eke out a hundred meters here and there. And now Prigozhin says he's not sure he can even take it.
The offensive in the south? No progress either.
We've all been waiting for something big swooping down from Belarus, but, again, where are the troop numbers?
Also, I strongly disagree with your analysis that the Russians are about to start sending planes deep into Ukraine and again and targeting bridges and so on.
But hey, let's see.
I'd love to be proven wrong on this one.