Because I’m a stickler for getting to the root of things, and will always follow up on important issues as they develop, I wanted to start with a continuation of a previous line. In one of the last reports we talked about the potential mobilizations on both sides, troop numbers, and how that relates to upcoming conflict developments in the medium-term future.
I've said this on the last post, and I'll say this again:
"You can project losses of about 800,000: - out of which 400,000 would be wounded, roughly half can return - 400,000 killed" - Bebo
Do you honestly believe a 1:1 casualty ratio?
For reference, the US had a 1:2 casualty ratio (kia to wia) in WW2. 80 years ago. With no sterile gauze, no tourniquets, no modern antibiotics, no thermal blankets, chest sealants, blood packs, little to no possibility to ever call in medevac. So tell me, how can you possibly claim that Ukraine, where they have all of the above, even if not in abundance, but infinitely more than the US army of 1940 ever did, has the worse survival rate?
How can you claim that despite all the advances in medicine and first aid in combat compared to nearly a century ago, the amount of wounded that are saved was somehow cut in half?
"That’s why I stand by my reporting of Russia only using 70-80k men in the opening stages of the SMO, and not much more than that even by the time of the first year anniversary."
At one point last year, Lavrov quoted a figure of 100-120K troops - and I believe he was not including the Donbass militias, although he may have been including the Rosqvardia, the Volunteer Battalions, the Chechens and Wagner, who knows. So that's the figure I've assumed since then. I consider 70-80K to be unlikely due to being low, but again who knows - no one but the Russian General Staff. And it's mostly irrelevant anyway - except for the below issue.
The other figure I always dispute is that Russia was "out-numbered 3 to 1" at the outset of the war. Since Ukraine only had 250,000 troops in the field and only half of them at the contact line, I fail to see how Russia's 100K - give or take 20K - could be "outnumbered 3 to 1" (not to mention the Donbass militias who numbered anywhere from 25-50,000 depending on another "who knows" figure). Maybe later when Ukraine mobilized its 400K reserves, but not during the first couple weeks. But it's become the standard view that Russia was heavily outnumbered. People forget that troops scattered all over Ukraine don't actually count except in logistic matters until they reach the front.
If Ukraine had that many troops, why did they have such a hard time with the 40K Russians that came down from Belarus? It probably took Ukraine weeks to get those Territorials and reserves mobilized.
I find all this bean-counting of bodies to be a waste of time. What matters is performance on the field and that depends on strategy and operations. Speaking of which, you might find this article of interest that I ran across the other day on the NATO Defense College site:
As wounded rates are always at least 3X higher than KIA, if KIA is 400,000, which I believe is correct, then WIA must be at least 1.2 million. That leaves us with 1.6 million total casualties. Keep in mind that they are sending most of the wounded back to the front.
Moldava and Armenia have been on the flip list of the West since way back, seems it is about to happen. It gets to the point where you wonder if the West just thinks "Fuck it" Just declare war and get it over with.
I have never understood why everyone doesn't roll about laughing every time Zelensky says they are fighting to keep the planet safe for democracy.
But not only does no one laugh but no one comments on it afterwards. Not even in places like this where I'd expect some derisive comment perhaps, or better, some dry as dust precise dissection of the facts to demonstrate what a ludicrous contention it is.
But nothing. Why?
And he says 'where will Putin stop?' Like Putin is a rabid invader sweeping through the land. Does he not understand the invader in Ukraine is Kiev, which is invading Donbas? And Putin/Russia has invaded nothing/nowhere (barring that initial farcical thing) but is everywhere behind the lines, the borders of States that not only welcome them but are now Federated with them?
Does he not understand that the Russians after their initial 'invasion' quickly retreated behind lines that had been establish in 2014 by Kiev's invasion ?
Of course he knows.
Everyone knows.
Just as they know of Russia's peace proposals Kiev twice rejected.
So what is he talking about? Is he lunatic or just a consummate liar/actor?
"According to the people's deputy, Zelensky will be given weapons and will stop insisting on the mandatory elections next year in exchange for total mobilization and sending everyone to the front - from women and teenagers to the disabled and the elderly."
That's one of the saddest things I've read recently. It doesn't even make me feel angry, though there is a bit of that. It's just SAD as Hell, man. SAD.
Of course I'm for Russia and I completely hate these Nazis, but in general I refuse to watch most of the war footage, even drone footage of material being hit because I know there are humans near that material. I can't watch anything that shows Ukrainian troops dying or their dead bodies. I just can't handle it. They're human beings, whatever their ideology is, and God knows even WHAT their ideology is at this point.
Keep in mind that a majority of Americans, I think 58%, oppose further military aid to Ukraine. But boy you sure never hear one word about that in the media, do you?
Some of those foreign volunteers come across as mind numbingly naive. You'd think they would do a little homework before fighting for the murderous, authoritarian regime in Kiev, or perhaps most accurately DC's puppets in Kiev.
Those British mercs must be SAS forces if they're being targeted by Russians. I'm not sure what 'vile volunteers' that guy was referring to but funny enough he wasn't blaming Russians.
Seems like Wagner and MoD still need to sort out the wrinkles between them but is anyone surprised how the whole Prigozhyn saga went stone cold and nobody talks anymore about who killed him? As if everyone knows, accepts and approves...Is Surovikin taking over Wagner in Africa?
The military recruitment ads were pretty interesting..at least we're getting some information out of Russian MoD :)
The best reaction in the last civilian opinion was the Russian guy who said its bad because they're our future cities 😀
If Russian KIA's had been anywhere near that level that the West likes to throw out, then it would be all over the net. Even the Russian ability to suppress negative information is limited, it's not the NKVD and Pravda times anymore.
Thank you SOOO much for the videos. This line ''British mercenaries are fleeing Ukraine because they are terrified for their lives due to the recent uptick in mercenaries being extrajudicially killed, or rather assassinated by their own people" brought such JOY to my heart. THANK YOU!!!
Thank you for yet another superbly comprehensive analysis.
A couple of comments:
1) Croatia has now also joined the banning of Ukrainian grain. Romania, meanwhile, has tentatively decided to do it as well but only due to extreme domestic political pressure (i.e. the US-puppet gov't is purely in favor of unlimited grain imports from Ukraine, but the populace is opposed).
2) Don't forget both Poland and Slovakia are going to have really consequential general elections soon, so a lot of the grandstanding going on is related to that.
3) Brazil's president also canceled a 1-on-1 with Zelensky in New York due to Zelensky acting like an ass, as usual.
4) The whole Artsakh situation is incredibly complex and difficult to understand precisely because there is a seemingly incomprehensible desire on the part of Yerevan to ditch Stepanakert once and for all despite the fact that they're all ethnic Armenians, members of the Armenian church, speak the same language, etc. Armenia is always a bit weird as well because more Armenians live abroad than in Armenia (and Artstakh) itself.
5) At this point, I believe that >50% of all the munitions being produced on the planet right now are in the Korean peninsula (both North and South combined), which is... NOT GOOD (for world peace).
6) A friend of mine from Western Europe just got back from Kiev (just went to visit a good friend), and the stories he told me were beyond surreal - just think "Masque of the Red Death" by Edgar Allen Poe.
There is a SERIOUSLY large number of people in Kiev who are now very, very rich and living it up to the max, with long lines at trendy restaurants and upscale grocery stores with hugely inflated prices, and the more expensive, the longer the line (because it's cool/trendy/upscale). Luxury cars are on every street. Everyone ignores the air raid sirens and anyway, they're turned off on the weekends to "let people sleep." In short, from Kiev (the city's) POV, it's "LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL."
My buddy asked his (Ukrainian local) friend to take him somewhere to get a photo of some bomb or missile damage or some other kind of photographic "souvenir" of the war, and it was a hard task to fulfill. Eventually, my buddy got taken to an apartment building with obviously missile damage, and the Ukrainian friend openly admitted it was caused by an errant Ukrainian AD missile, not a Russian one. In other words, my friend couldn't find even a single Russian-damaged building to photograph in all of Kiev.
If you're in Kiev, it truly DOES appear like Ukraine is kicking Russia's ass, and life is good. Literally everyone remaining has a pipeline to foreign money, whether it's directly via corruption/nepotism or via channels like foreign NGOs (which are FLUSH with money), the UN, or online jobs where you can charge triple because you're Ukrainian (and thus hiring you is "helping the war effort" and something you can brag about on your corporate webpage). But the whole thing has a ghastly danse macabre feel to it.
No surprise then at all that Kiev residents think bombing Russian cities is a jolly affair.
I've said this on the last post, and I'll say this again:
"You can project losses of about 800,000: - out of which 400,000 would be wounded, roughly half can return - 400,000 killed" - Bebo
Do you honestly believe a 1:1 casualty ratio?
For reference, the US had a 1:2 casualty ratio (kia to wia) in WW2. 80 years ago. With no sterile gauze, no tourniquets, no modern antibiotics, no thermal blankets, chest sealants, blood packs, little to no possibility to ever call in medevac. So tell me, how can you possibly claim that Ukraine, where they have all of the above, even if not in abundance, but infinitely more than the US army of 1940 ever did, has the worse survival rate?
How can you claim that despite all the advances in medicine and first aid in combat compared to nearly a century ago, the amount of wounded that are saved was somehow cut in half?
Interestingly, Zelensky acting more and more extreme and unhinged gives away the severity of his situation. Quite a far cry from the man of 2022
Great article!
Good report. Lots of interesting stuff.
"That’s why I stand by my reporting of Russia only using 70-80k men in the opening stages of the SMO, and not much more than that even by the time of the first year anniversary."
At one point last year, Lavrov quoted a figure of 100-120K troops - and I believe he was not including the Donbass militias, although he may have been including the Rosqvardia, the Volunteer Battalions, the Chechens and Wagner, who knows. So that's the figure I've assumed since then. I consider 70-80K to be unlikely due to being low, but again who knows - no one but the Russian General Staff. And it's mostly irrelevant anyway - except for the below issue.
The other figure I always dispute is that Russia was "out-numbered 3 to 1" at the outset of the war. Since Ukraine only had 250,000 troops in the field and only half of them at the contact line, I fail to see how Russia's 100K - give or take 20K - could be "outnumbered 3 to 1" (not to mention the Donbass militias who numbered anywhere from 25-50,000 depending on another "who knows" figure). Maybe later when Ukraine mobilized its 400K reserves, but not during the first couple weeks. But it's become the standard view that Russia was heavily outnumbered. People forget that troops scattered all over Ukraine don't actually count except in logistic matters until they reach the front.
If Ukraine had that many troops, why did they have such a hard time with the 40K Russians that came down from Belarus? It probably took Ukraine weeks to get those Territorials and reserves mobilized.
I find all this bean-counting of bodies to be a waste of time. What matters is performance on the field and that depends on strategy and operations. Speaking of which, you might find this article of interest that I ran across the other day on the NATO Defense College site:
Defining the “Special Military Operation”
https://www.ndc.nato.int/research/research.php?icode=777
If this “sampling of Ukrainian vs. Russian populations in the street” is true; it is really sad!
As wounded rates are always at least 3X higher than KIA, if KIA is 400,000, which I believe is correct, then WIA must be at least 1.2 million. That leaves us with 1.6 million total casualties. Keep in mind that they are sending most of the wounded back to the front.
Moldava and Armenia have been on the flip list of the West since way back, seems it is about to happen. It gets to the point where you wonder if the West just thinks "Fuck it" Just declare war and get it over with.
I have never understood why everyone doesn't roll about laughing every time Zelensky says they are fighting to keep the planet safe for democracy.
But not only does no one laugh but no one comments on it afterwards. Not even in places like this where I'd expect some derisive comment perhaps, or better, some dry as dust precise dissection of the facts to demonstrate what a ludicrous contention it is.
But nothing. Why?
And he says 'where will Putin stop?' Like Putin is a rabid invader sweeping through the land. Does he not understand the invader in Ukraine is Kiev, which is invading Donbas? And Putin/Russia has invaded nothing/nowhere (barring that initial farcical thing) but is everywhere behind the lines, the borders of States that not only welcome them but are now Federated with them?
Does he not understand that the Russians after their initial 'invasion' quickly retreated behind lines that had been establish in 2014 by Kiev's invasion ?
Of course he knows.
Everyone knows.
Just as they know of Russia's peace proposals Kiev twice rejected.
So what is he talking about? Is he lunatic or just a consummate liar/actor?
What is going on?
"According to the people's deputy, Zelensky will be given weapons and will stop insisting on the mandatory elections next year in exchange for total mobilization and sending everyone to the front - from women and teenagers to the disabled and the elderly."
That's one of the saddest things I've read recently. It doesn't even make me feel angry, though there is a bit of that. It's just SAD as Hell, man. SAD.
Of course I'm for Russia and I completely hate these Nazis, but in general I refuse to watch most of the war footage, even drone footage of material being hit because I know there are humans near that material. I can't watch anything that shows Ukrainian troops dying or their dead bodies. I just can't handle it. They're human beings, whatever their ideology is, and God knows even WHAT their ideology is at this point.
Keep in mind that a majority of Americans, I think 58%, oppose further military aid to Ukraine. But boy you sure never hear one word about that in the media, do you?
Some of those foreign volunteers come across as mind numbingly naive. You'd think they would do a little homework before fighting for the murderous, authoritarian regime in Kiev, or perhaps most accurately DC's puppets in Kiev.
Those British mercs must be SAS forces if they're being targeted by Russians. I'm not sure what 'vile volunteers' that guy was referring to but funny enough he wasn't blaming Russians.
Seems like Wagner and MoD still need to sort out the wrinkles between them but is anyone surprised how the whole Prigozhyn saga went stone cold and nobody talks anymore about who killed him? As if everyone knows, accepts and approves...Is Surovikin taking over Wagner in Africa?
The military recruitment ads were pretty interesting..at least we're getting some information out of Russian MoD :)
The best reaction in the last civilian opinion was the Russian guy who said its bad because they're our future cities 😀
If Russian KIA's had been anywhere near that level that the West likes to throw out, then it would be all over the net. Even the Russian ability to suppress negative information is limited, it's not the NKVD and Pravda times anymore.
Thank you SOOO much for the videos. This line ''British mercenaries are fleeing Ukraine because they are terrified for their lives due to the recent uptick in mercenaries being extrajudicially killed, or rather assassinated by their own people" brought such JOY to my heart. THANK YOU!!!
Thank you for yet another superbly comprehensive analysis.
A couple of comments:
1) Croatia has now also joined the banning of Ukrainian grain. Romania, meanwhile, has tentatively decided to do it as well but only due to extreme domestic political pressure (i.e. the US-puppet gov't is purely in favor of unlimited grain imports from Ukraine, but the populace is opposed).
2) Don't forget both Poland and Slovakia are going to have really consequential general elections soon, so a lot of the grandstanding going on is related to that.
3) Brazil's president also canceled a 1-on-1 with Zelensky in New York due to Zelensky acting like an ass, as usual.
4) The whole Artsakh situation is incredibly complex and difficult to understand precisely because there is a seemingly incomprehensible desire on the part of Yerevan to ditch Stepanakert once and for all despite the fact that they're all ethnic Armenians, members of the Armenian church, speak the same language, etc. Armenia is always a bit weird as well because more Armenians live abroad than in Armenia (and Artstakh) itself.
5) At this point, I believe that >50% of all the munitions being produced on the planet right now are in the Korean peninsula (both North and South combined), which is... NOT GOOD (for world peace).
6) A friend of mine from Western Europe just got back from Kiev (just went to visit a good friend), and the stories he told me were beyond surreal - just think "Masque of the Red Death" by Edgar Allen Poe.
There is a SERIOUSLY large number of people in Kiev who are now very, very rich and living it up to the max, with long lines at trendy restaurants and upscale grocery stores with hugely inflated prices, and the more expensive, the longer the line (because it's cool/trendy/upscale). Luxury cars are on every street. Everyone ignores the air raid sirens and anyway, they're turned off on the weekends to "let people sleep." In short, from Kiev (the city's) POV, it's "LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL."
My buddy asked his (Ukrainian local) friend to take him somewhere to get a photo of some bomb or missile damage or some other kind of photographic "souvenir" of the war, and it was a hard task to fulfill. Eventually, my buddy got taken to an apartment building with obviously missile damage, and the Ukrainian friend openly admitted it was caused by an errant Ukrainian AD missile, not a Russian one. In other words, my friend couldn't find even a single Russian-damaged building to photograph in all of Kiev.
If you're in Kiev, it truly DOES appear like Ukraine is kicking Russia's ass, and life is good. Literally everyone remaining has a pipeline to foreign money, whether it's directly via corruption/nepotism or via channels like foreign NGOs (which are FLUSH with money), the UN, or online jobs where you can charge triple because you're Ukrainian (and thus hiring you is "helping the war effort" and something you can brag about on your corporate webpage). But the whole thing has a ghastly danse macabre feel to it.
No surprise then at all that Kiev residents think bombing Russian cities is a jolly affair.