Respectfully - you don't understand what interest rates are, or how they are used.
Example- a central Bank (eg Fed) sets the cash rate. This is the minimum rate that member banks can lend to EACH OTHER.
If rates increase, making interbank debt more expensive for banks, the banks then pass any increased costs by increasing interest rates on loansto individuals & businesses - anyone on a variable interest rate suddenly has to pay more.
The interest rate set by the central bank also determines the rates set for IOUs issued by governments, eg Fed bonds. Governments must pay a (usually) monthly return to whoever has loaned them $$ at the relevant interest rate that applies at the time of payment, and must also return the full amount to the bond buyer at the end of the bond.
A 19% interest rate is just a number. Whether it indicates that an economy is under strain or not, is a question of circumstances/context.
Russia may have a 19% rate, but in reality has an extremely healthy economy. Russia's relatively low debt means that the impact of an increase in rates by the Russian central bank can be managed relatively easily. The central bank could probably raise rates to 25% ++ (it won't but just as an example) the Kremlin could still service its debts, with no real risk to the Russian economy.
By contrast while the US interest rate is 5.25-5.50%, the US government has a massive debt ($35 trillion) that is 123% of GDP, so any movement upwards in interest rates made by the Fed, even 0.5%, also has a massive increase in the payment that DC must pay each month etc by $billions, putting the entire financial system & US economy (based on debt) at risk.
the jew probably inbread with the Kazar leadership as they have done in the USA and the "west". all major goy leaders now have jew grandchildren. Tuman was convinced to recognize israel by his jew haberdasher partner of their failed business. they infest everywhere but are jews first....
I love that kind of history, but I'm pretty sure modern genetic studies have debunked any khazar connection with modern jews. It's still fun to mock them with it occasionally. Ashk jews are just desert people who weaponized their DNA by admixture with Euro DNA. Sephardic jews are just arabs with delusions of grandeur.
"Lord" street shitter and a negro "Foreign secretary" the UK is more controlled by the jew than the JewSA. kamal married to a jew and zion don are the "choices"
Anti semitism is the answer to the world’s problem. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
Unless of course you are just a Jew defending your tribe and proving my point. Then you should just shut up and go swing a chicken or felatio on a cut baby penis.
The only solution is to ban all judaic/talmudic education (indoctrination), same as a teaching of Nazism is banned today.
The supremacist lunacy and indoctrination in psychotic fear & hatred (which permeate the judaic/talmudic education) create genociders and enemies of Humanity.
Everything wrong is done by the Jews according them. Those folks are no difference than those BLM and those Demtrads playing the race card. It's always Elites vs the common people. Do they realized that the avg Jews is just living their lives like most that need to pay mortgage amid the spiralling spending cost to the banksters designed by the elites which happen to just include some jews?
Anti Zionism is not anti semitism. However, I think Israel is its own worst enemy especially if you expect The US to follow you to victory. When it gets tough or boring we cut our losses and run.
Jewish banker Jacob Schiff personally financed the likes of Trotsky to run the Jewish Bolshevik revolution in Russia in 1918. Before that, the same Schiff helped Japan to wage a war against Russia in 1904/1905. Jewish hatred of Russians (Iranians, Germans, Syrians, Ukrainians, Iraqi, Palestinians...) is unbounded.
Since the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine was “appropriated” by the jewish & banderite “interests." In 2014, an ugly jew Nuland-Kagan run a putsch in Kiev in an open collaboration with the Ukrainian Nazi Party "Svoboda." Are you aware that zionists are the best friends of the self-proclaimed Ukrainian Nazis, the followers of Stepan Bandera? The Jewish Lobby adores banderites and calls them "freedom fighters against Russians."
After the jew Nuland-Kagan did regime change in Kiev, a string of jews were selected to become presidents of Ukraine. Thus, the president of the jewish community of Ukraine, Kolomojsky, has bankrolled the presidential campaign of a homoerotic dancer and "penist" Zelensky who promised to establish a peace with Russia. The promise was broken. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are dead. Is this why Zelensky was named a "jew of the year" by the Jerusalem Post in 2022?
Currently, the Kievan Junta is busy with looting the Orthodox Christian Churches and imprisoning and even murdering the Orthodox Christians. Meanwhile, the monstrous jewish center “menorah” (the largest synagogue in Europe) continues to dominate the Dnipro landscape, reminding everyone there about the real owners of Ukraine.
Lord Alli likely bangs Sir Keir Starmer's wife, (lets see the clothes he bought her) I think this because Keir strikes me as a cuck both personally and politically.
Back door printing/credit creation by the U.S. Fed to backstop Foreign demand for U.S. Debt is already on under way.
U.S. Government Debt Markets are a short-fuse time bomb.
The real lenders will only hold short term paper, everyone else has the under-the-table "guarantee" to be made whole by the Group. For whatever that is worth.
I am not defending them idiot. Yall are funny. Normies just cannot say no to the jews and blame all their problems on them. You know you do not need to drink or smoke or murder your children, etc. Just say no.
Russia must not make a peace agreement. Russia must press on militarily against US/NATO neocon proxy Ukraine until it surrenders and its AFU forces and equipment are crushed. Why?
Well, The Neos went all in to control Ukraine in its push to dismantle Russia and rob it of its natural wealth just as it planned for Ukraine. The hegemon has overextended, overspent, and over-rated itself for the world to see using "WAR" for profit and for winning the hearts and minds of non-compliant nations. lol But in their self-deluded ad-lib planned haste to put its grip on the big bear without gloves got themselves all bloodied and scratched up really well. In fact the NEO's have caused themselves more of an existential threat than to the Russians. The joke is that the Neos have screwed themselves by giving the Russians the upper hand. To me, this is pure absurd comedy.
Now the Neos, with their backs against the wall economically, militarily, and strategically, appear set to double down doing all sorts of silly things but they're getting their asses kicked on the battlefield where it all counts, right?
My point is as long as Russia controls the show in Ukraine, they have neutralized Neo-NATO's expansionary conquest intentions while systematically destroying its AFU proxy army and gaining valuable land resource assets.
Give no concessions to your enemy when you can better off defeat them.
Seems highly unlikely with Kiev bitterly arguing it would never sanction a "freeze" leaving lost territory to Russia and Russia would never sanction a freeze either, at least till it reaches the Dnieper and even then would continue to strike accros at any heavy weapons or Nuclear capable systems indefinitely.
he is a jew, and of indecent kind; he will be "puzzled" by the idea that global jewry is not going to rush to make him a wealthy and powerful "effendi" (aka Churchill).
Not since the Nibelungenlied 1924 Frizt Lang, has the German and Nordic architecture of tradition and security been so well mise en scène and re constructed, this time on think tank paper
For the first time the intellectuals are fighting for the people, but this is Euro PMC, just as US prissy, more precise
Yet their cold evasive prose almost makes one stalgic for the forlorn feebleness of the Post Russia crews, with their ethnic shawls and their Buryat cooking poys and their Yahkut tent hugging
The enemy the Think Tankers are fighting is within, is recent German politics and society, half a foot in the appeal to heroic times, half another spent carefully painting the monstrous enemy in ghastly tones, called by name yet careful never to describe what how and why
The argument is that the foolish and treacherous actions of the traditional German state both created the monster and invited the monster to invade Europe
This is the cold version of US doomerism, which comes across cuddly by comparison – but which is all a political ploy, cloaked a fake appeals to tradition
Currently holding a Gates inspired Vision for Africa Conference, as if in belated comptetition with the China FOCAC : however here, instead of Heads of State, some Phd Grads and academics uphold the dying flames of US interventionism, as exrmplified by the current chaos in their two proxies, Nigeria and Kenya, via debt slavery, and ind agri caused enviro disasters
« Germany is rearming too slowly to stand up to Russia’
After decades of military downsizing, German military spending is woefully inadequate to meet the new strategic challenge posed by Russia—as both a new report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the new Kiel Military Procurement Tracker show. In combination with a cumbersome national procurement system and depending on weapon systems it would take Germany as much as a century to bring its military inventory up to the level of 20 years ago. In contrast, Russia is radically increasing its capacity to produce armaments, including advanced systems, and is now in a position to produce as many weapons in six months as all of Germany’s armed forces currently field.
“Russia is becoming an ever greater security threat to NATO,” says Guntram Wolff, Fellow at the Kiel Institute and lead author of the report “Fit for war in decades: Europe's and Germany’s slow rearmament vis-à-vis Russia”.
“At the same time, we in Germany are making slow progress in committing to rearmament needed for deterrence. What Europe needs now is a permanent, substantial, and immediate increase in Germany’s regular defense spending to at least 2 percent of GDP, in addition to the special fund. Let's be clear—any ‘business as usual’ approach would be negligent and irresponsible in the face of Russian aggression.”
The German government is currently barely managing to replace the weapons it is sending to Ukraine–the Bundeswehr's stockpile of air defense systems and howitzers has even plummeted. It was not until 2023, a good year after Russia attacked Ukraine, that Germany began to raise regular defense spending in any significant way, finally pushing annual spending above the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP. The coalition has since awarded military contracts worth some 90 billion euros (the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker documents all German defense purchases announced since 2020).
But Wolff and his co-authors criticize the government’s military spending goals for not being ambitious enough. They estimate it would currently take Germany nearly a hundred years to restore the Bundeswehr's military capacity to 2004 levels—the result of drastic downsizing by successive preceding governments and overly slow and modest rearmament by the current administration.
The End of the Zeitenwende
Reflections After Two Years of Action Group Zeitenwende
This personal assessment challenges whether Germany’s Zeitenwende has achieved its goals. While it reflects the author’s views, not necessarily the view of all members of DGAP’s Action Group Zeitenwende, the debate continues. In the coming weeks, DGAP’s magazine Internationale Politik Quarterly will invite more experts to explore whether Germany’s Zeitenwende has failed or what it needs to succeed.
Evaluating the results of the “Zeitenwende,” Germany’s supposed security transformation, shows that it has failed. A two-year DGAP project concludes that the Zeitenwende, proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, no longer carries political force and should be abandoned as a term of use. By presenting strategic continuity as change, it has left Germany unprepared to face major (geo)political and (geo)economic challenges, and has eroded influence with allies. Germany now needs a comprehensive strategic reset - and bold leadership in domestic as well as foreign policy - to arrest its decline and ensure its security, prosperity, and democracy.
Germany’s Zeitenwende has failed. That is the sweeping, yet inescapable, conclusion after a two-year evaluation by the German Council on Foreign Relations’ (DGAP) Action Group Zeitenwende (AGZ). The project brought together German and international politicians, officials, experts and business representatives in different formats, building a network as well as knowledge. In more than forty events and over thirty publications we analyzed and explored Germany’s geostrategic positioning and choices and presented options to help the country master its geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
The Valkyries will ride, especially on behalf of KK: while the dead heroes are being ferried to Valhalla, she will vent her spleen w/ such diva-charged ferocity that even people @ the back of the opera house will feel the floorboards shudder
It is intolerable to realize that even Fritz Lang would be ashamed. Sad Germany has whipped out the tiniest of violins and instead of playing Mozart is playing "Turkey In The Straw."
OT, german Die Welt newspaper reports that the perpetrator of the 2nd Trump assassination attempt used to recruit volunteeres to fight for Ukraine. Perhaps the Ukrainian secret service is not only adept at bombing pipelines,but also to guide stooges to remove US presidents not to their liking?
It's even simpler. "Ukrainian" is not a nationality or ethnicity but a political and religious standing, hinting at a socially dangerous psychic condition. This guy got affected.
Thank you as always Simplicius, your articles are always well researched, written and a pleasure to read, not to mention the education received with a good dose of reality check tempering Western propaganda… its hard to fathom and believe the dribble, literal garbage that today and in the months beginning Q4 2021, before this conflict began the lies, hubris and outright fantasies Western media hacks, comprising the presstitutes are want to write about… rubbish that is nothing more than dribble, human excrement, the acres of column space they have dedicated to promulgating fantasy truly incomprehensible, it is thanks to you, the Alex’s on the Duran, Andrei Martyanov of SmoothieX12, Dimitry Orlov, Gil Doctorow, Scott Ritter, Doug MacGregor, Larry Johnson, Judge Andrew Napolitano, Ray McGovern, Jeffrey Sachs, John Mearshimer, Jacques Baud, Pepe Escobar, being amongst the very best and most vociferous Western alternate media truth tellers and commentators that we are able to glean anything resembling fact based reporting, thankfully Borzzikkman yourself, John Helmer, Mark Sleboda on the Russian side confirm much of what these brave Western commentators prepared to challenge the official narrative speak of, thus providing us, those who follow you the surety of knowing the truth from the bull shitzen…. thank you and wishing Putin, the Russian Leadership, and its peoples the very, very best as you march inexorably toward a just victory…. time to end Western tyranny, multipolarity a new paradigm, so wanted, long awaited, bring it on… Kia Kaha from New Zealand
Rethink Sachs-- he was an instrumental apparatchik trying to facilitate the resource plundering of the 90s Soviet Union/ emerging Russia for his Neo-Con bosses. Part of the Bill Browder/Oligarch gangs trying to steal the resources for the West. Here we are with the same moves being attempted now with Sachs rebranding himself --pathetic.
Judaism = communism. It is almost genetics in this group. They can be top Wall Street capitalist, but, still have a soft spot for communism as well as hate for the West.
Sachs is a true penitent. In my book, that's worth a lot, because so few can comprehend the error of their way and truly try to make amends. That he has done aplenty, without making excuses for how misguided he was originally.
As an aside, Max Blumenthal, who has been doing great and significant work with the Gray Zone, is my other worthy penitent. He was badly misled originally when the anti-Assad revolts started, thinking them to be part of the Arab Spring. But he quickly realized who those "Young rebels" really were, having noticed how quickly they became armed to the hilt. Meaning, these oh-so-brave rebelious youth (ie a sizeable fraction of the crowds that turned to anti-Assad rallies) were obviously armed and directed by you know who.
Having thus witnessed the subterfuge of using the Arab Spring to hide a color revolution in the making, Max has reversed his earlier position and has become a staunch brave voice on all Middle eastern shenanigans, with special emphasis on that most "innocent' of all - Israel.
I wish them both well and am proud to support their work.
Re your comments Columbia Emiritus and Tenured Prof Jeff Sachs Economics, I concur, however are we not as a race better to embrace those who having erred, have Sen the light, been so called Red Pilled and crossed over?
I believe unless we with our entrenched positions are able to forgive and forget for those who make a genuine attempt, indeed using their stellar platform and reps to perpetuate unmitigated truth and reality we will forever be in a losing battle…
The fight being fought on this earth presently undoubtedly between forces with markedly different ideologies and beliefs, when stripped back and looked at under the microscopical detail one needs to subject such discourse unto, will find that there is a genuine effort to make amends…
A mea culpa… I too once denigrated Sachs and vilified him, aware only to intimately of all he had done in his past, to enable tyranny and the fascist agenda we are now dealing with, I recall after hearing and viewing one of his very first t public appearances after it seemed having changed, then following him, publicly apologised to the man I consider has shown more aplomb, courage, and fortitude to call it at is it actually is, to call out his own government as we view him frequently doing on the myriad forums upon which he is invited to offer his views and discourse, to parse comment, much it can be said to the chagrin of many a host who at that earliest time of his coming of true age and to the realisation he had been on the wrong side of everything he once believed to be proper and correct wrote an apology… I now hold him in the highest of regard, proud of his speaking out and lending voice to challenge all we know to be vile and evil ….
Sachs is no dilettante nor a Machiavellian character, though he might be considered to be flawed, none of us are perfect, the first will be last and the last will be first and in this battle we are living.. a battle to Yale of the forces of good vs the forces of true evil, for evil on every measurable scale, calculus and metric these current conflagrations must be said to be…. I’d rather err on the side of acceptance than of recrimination…. We need all and every hand, every shoulder to the wheel pushing on the same direction to end the fascist globalist, WEF tyranny that has swept this world of ours in recent decades, power to Jeff and all like him I say, after all, none of us have a mortgage on what constitutes good, we are takers, as in price setting, and will benefit from and must therefore take at this stage of this battle whatever we can get of good that comes our way… predicate upon that thought, I refuse now to be judgmental of anyone, the lesson well and truly learned, I pray I am right…
I, for one, would love to see a Simplicius YouTube channel for a wider reach. More people need to be properly educated and unfortunately the reach, via Substack, is not broad enough.
No way. One gets deeper and more serious insights from written text than from gabbing heads. And I just don't have the time to spend hours listening to all the Judge Nap or Nima interviews, worthy as they are. A couple of written articles, including Simplicius's, will inform me far more thoroughly and incomparably faster. And let me reflect, rather than just listen.
Comforting news and conclusions! I am most pleased that you, Simplicius, aknowledge the fact that the War also is stressful for Russia as a society. The Window of Opportunity is closing as we near the third year of war. You cant have that amount of money spending and inflation without consequences. The opposite is also true. West is depleted and Ukraine desperate. So are we at the end of the War?
No. I dont think so because no one has outspoken on either side what a Victory would look like. I mean a realistic victory with all variables taken into account. In the West they only say that Russia must not win and a victory for Russia would be a disaster. But none of them are explained in detail. Could be the good old "ambiguiety" of their inner thoughts. Russia has prematurely declared what they see as a Victory. And it is likewise unrealistic. In the future ”historians” may very well describe the Ukrainian War 2022-2025 as the precursor to the WW3 that nearly wiped out the entire world in 2033. Unless responsible people now starts to define what a peace should look like and how West can swallow the defeat and reorganize their society, not for another War, but to a future in co-existence.
Russias chance is to show the World that they are strong and that ANY provocation will be met in a frightening way. They must change the Perception of reality, that has detoriated and transformed to fantasy, in the West. They need to formulate a ”way out” for western leaders.
That US is holding back the long-range missiles for use inside Russia is only temporary. We can expect the Kursk NPP cooling towers be attacked very soon. The fall of Pokrovsk would mean nothing more than Ukraine shortening their lines and giving up some territory. Ukraine is for sure on the brink of total destruction, but so was Germany in january 1945. Unless we see a sudden eruption of morale breakdown inside AFU this meaningless War will continue. And is it not astounding that Russia has 12:1 in artillery and can throw 4000 bombs/month but merely moves 500 meter/day?
I am not critical of the Russians way of warfare. I am perplexed what is hindering them from rolling over the AFU.
The slow roll is frustrating, but me thinks the RF is sending to Ukraine 1 widget for every 3 it holds back in the event of a war with NATO. Simplicus did a piece about the size of the military with respect to domestic labor needs and war production. The numbers in Ukraine are enough to do the job, albeit slowly, but the more important need right now is to 'stock up.' Produce produce produce!
Yes, could very well be that NATO is so stupid that they start to arm themselves for the
”next” war. The American perpetual war moved to Europe and propably they hope it to stay that way. What is good for MIC is good for the Elite. Russia has enough deep-throats in the Cabinets - so they know what to do.
What I find troubling in that context is that Blinken took the time, ostensibly on the way to Kiev, to stop over in Poland and hold talks with key politicos there. It looks like Poland is being groomed to step into the breach once Ukraine collapses.
"I am perplexed what is hindering them from rolling over the AFU."
Let me try to unvex the perplexed on this one count. I believe that one reason Russia is deliberately going it slow to avoid raising the panic and fury levels in the partly-mad-already West to levels so high that they will overcome their hesitation and actually enter the war. If Russia were to triumph too fast and too decisively, the pressure in the Western capitals, but especially the US, will reach boiling point. Possibly enough to get over the pentagon's objections (stranhgely enough, the last sane voice in the West, even if behind the scenes) and actually go all unhinged.
IOW, Russia has likely assessed the levels of anti-Russia hysteria and fear of the Empire being shown to be far less strong than it claims, and figured that limiting the progress on the battlefield to some 100's of m's or a few km per day or week will be just right to both move the front lines and avoid Western panic.
So far, this worked, more or less, even as the west keeps crossing lines, but at an ever increasing cost to itself.
Second reason is simpler still: Russia is keen to keep casualties as low as possible. That means not taking undue risks such as large arrow attacks.
One more reason I think has to do with China, india and other Global South countries. Russia does not wish to look like a merciless aggressor and is therefore fighting with at least one eye looking over its shoulder to ensure China has its back (and others, like india, do not get cold feet too soon).
Other, more tactical reasons were as given by Simplicius himself.
In any case, what we have here is a game of chicken. Russia advances slowly and meticulously, degrading ukraine's military and Western equipment maximally, while giving indications it is perfectly willing to keep it going at this rate (at least till Winter). The collective west in the meantime is impoverishing itself through their stupid sanctions, while turning the global south against their machinations. yet it's got those increasingly shrill voices within calling for escalation. Obviously we got internal Deep State factions that are at loggerheads, but it's hard to know which one will come on top.
based on all we see, and as said in this article, I believe Russia has resilience to spare and can go on for quite a bit longer. That while waiting for something in the west to give. Possibly the populations within will have had enough at some point?
You show deep insight. I agree in that Russia is acting like a therapist with a psychopath in the room. Only psychopaths do blow Nordstream, arrange terror in Moscow shopping centers and try to blow the Crimean bridge. On the other hand, if the Therapist show fear or act in an overtly aggressive way the Patient will snap.
And I also noted that Pentagram-guys are those opposing long-range strike into Russia fearing attacks on US assets. I share the opinion on China&India relations. What I fear is the Russian people losing patience. It is their sons ending up in coffins and the economy is inflated by the War and the longer it takes the more backlash they will suffer. So Putin&Co must have a plan for the years after the inevitably end of War.
European citizens are to dumb&cheepish to understand that their economy is dwindling and capsizing, that their social security will perish and all further spending will be on arms. They can vote, they can oppose but nothing changes.
"Second reason is simpler still: Russia is keen to keep casualties as low as possible. That means not taking undue risks such as large arrow attacks.
One more reason I think has to do with China, India and other Global South countries. Russia does not wish to look like a merciless aggressor and is therefore fighting with at least one eye looking over its shoulder to ensure China has its back (and others, like India, do not get cold feet too soon)"
We should all remember, for now, Russia is conducting a Special Military Operation not fighting war.
That's a very insightful analysis, but there is yet another reason: Time is on Russia's side as the West is slowly but inevitably collapsing economically. Russians just have to wait for the frog to be boiled---as economic ruin progresses, the West will be more and more occupied with unsolvable internal problems, while at the same time less and less able to support military effort. Let's just hope this collapse progresses surreptitiously enough so that they do not at some point panic and press the nuclear suicide button.
Also, Russia has no alternative. They cannot and will not permit NATO to stay in Ukraine. No matter how long it takes or what it costs. The people of the West are not remotely prepared to bear a similar cost.
No one is asking them. The "people" of the West are a herd, stupefied with omnipresent propaganda and various addictions, and they will bear whatever cost their masters impose on them.
Well, yes. I hear you. To the extent our masters can impose Endless War on us, they will.
However, I do not believe the American people will accept the annihilation of American boys on European, Asian or Middle Eastern battlefields ... at least not on the terms proposed by the Deep State to date.
The Ukrainians are delivering a steady supply of nato equipment to be destroyed, why would Russia be in a hurry to end that? Most of the EU is nearly demilitarized, and stocks in the US are getting low. Your need of instant gratification is tiresome.
Nice bow to Ansarallah. The impact is psychological--and devastating given the psychology of the Israelis. I find the fear factor fascinating. Some societies seem to be shot through and through with fear. They simply can't handle the thought of death, harm or physical risk. They crap their pants over everything. They panic, they hide, they run around in circles, they demand this and that. Other societies seem congenitally unshakable: the Yemenis, the Palestinians, the Afghans, the Vietnamese, the Russians. These people just keep coming. (Aside: I can't help but think that one of the reasons why the Ukraine war is such a bloody shit-show is because it's actually Russians fighting other Russians) On the other hand in conjunction with ONE missile hitting Tel Aviv, I see lines of traffic stopped and people hiding in ditches by the road. You'd think they were in Dresden. At some point shit is going to get very, very real for the Israelis. Gee, I wonder who's gonna win?
Israel's demographics no doubt feature a high percentage of Trauma Population individuals, hailing from Holocaust survivors & their offspring, so the degree of civic fear evinced is correspondingly high.
Interestingly, the comments Budanov makes about Russian citizens feeling terrorized on account of drone strikes near Moscow--or the comments Zelensky makes about forcing an end to the war because of a growing fear or dread among the Russian populace--might especially capture more appropriately the tenor of what is making the population of Israel reel 11 months into this conflict.
Moreover, Israel is riven w/ deep division: Russia is not
"Israel's demographics no doubt feature a high percentage of Trauma Population individuals, hailing from Holocaust propaganda survivors & their offspring, so the degree of civic fear evinced is correspondingly high."
A national myth is a mixture of reality and fiction, and operates in a specific social and historical setting, both as an inspiring narrative or anecdote about a nation's past & a rallying point for its future.
For Israel, everything that happened on 7 October, and has happened since, shattered the security which its national myth offered, including its raison d'etre as a state: to be a refuge & safe haven for persecuted Jews.
Fear & anxieties about whether Israel has a right to exist, and by extension Israelis, have permeated the culture from genesis [ pun intended .] Fear & anxiety about extermination are hard-baked into the national myth.
Great comment - Russia does not have that insecurity- very few countries do not have that, and they are those which are now allied with RF against those that are recent settler insecure and self doubting culture free societies
The RF calls these countries or societies 'civilisational'
A national myth is a mixture of reality & fiction, no different of course w/ Israel, which needed urgently to construct its own national myth in 1947 & keep it fortified w/ enabling besties ever since.
Doesn't matter if the national myth, some might call it propaganda, is true--only that Western partners buy in & magnify it, which they have loyally & "unwaveringly" done since 1947
Bang on, well stated and so important to understand the modern world. To paraphrase Jung, trauma that is not moved through (“processed”) will remain in the unconscious and play out in behavior repeatedly, i.e., what Jung conceptualized as Shadow material. Bringing that unconscious material to awareness and transforming it is the only solution. As an aside, this is the problem with “Wokeness”….it appears as a step towards awareness (thus the name), but it is better understood as weaponized trauma. Keeps the victim/perpetrator dynamic playing out. Israel is a fine example of this.
Diaspora communities provide a cheerleading mouthpiece for the Trauma Population, both within the country of origin & also abroad. Diaspora communities are not, however, still on the active front-line, so to speak, as those who remain in-country--so they are at liberty to rally hardest in regard to the victimization, the original trauma of the Trauma Population.
Note: the *trauma* need not be factual or true: *they* believe it--and if their Western partners cosign the check, well they can take it to the bank.
The west are not partners but forced colonies of the Jew. Look how blm protesters were knelt to by cops compared to the attacks on Protesters for Palestinians who want the Jews to stop their genocide. The vast majority does not support the Jew but the political class are just shabos goy. Democracy = Jew control.
All these nice studies about "generational trauma" should be applied when calculating the reparations to Palestinians, who for generations (since 1937) have been suffering from jewish terrorism. At the same time when zionists were looting Palestinian villages and mass murdering Palestinians of all ages, the American jews came together to cook a very profitable "shoah-business" schema. Nahum Goldmann (a founder of the World Jewish Congress and a friend of the "jewish fascist" Jabotinsky) was in charge of the cooking. One of their most helpful collaborator was a Soviet jews Ilya Ehrenburg who provided the profiteers with the most outlandish slanderous lies about "shrunken heads and soap." The fraudulent opus of Elie Wiesel and the amazing "diaries" written with a ballpoint pen (first sold in 1954) by Otto Frank complete the picture.
Israelis are easily terrified. One reason for this society-wide neurosis is a deep, unacknowledged sense of insecurity about their being on that land. One they captured running rough shod overr the natives.
In my book, Israel is, effectively, a photoshopped country. Made of bits and pieces that never fit together.
I have a longer piece about this - coming up soon.
This society-wide neurosis is the reason too that persuading other nations to acknowledge "Israel's right to exist" has been an ongoing never quite settled paradigm.
Recall: Saudi Arabia was on the verge of doing just that prior to 7 October.
Israel juts its chin & demands that others agree that it has "a right to exist"--but the very bellicosity barely disguises the underlying insecurities of a state being installed on land that is not *theirs*, contrary to what the song "Exodus" bamboozles a willing audience to believe while zoning out to a stage play production of "Fiddler on the Roof"
This is not a Broadway show & this is not Tevia w/ his violin
If you shop lifted something, and the security guard watched you, and came to you to demand that item back from your pocket or he will call the police? 99% of thieves will give it back to the security guard. The point here is guilt? Now, if you didn't steal anything, you will not fear the guard calling the police.
Most Israelis knows that they stole the land, and they are happy to leave it and go back to New York or Poland.
the "Holocaust" is fake. the jew is just an inbread bronze age tribe who used their sin merchant skills to infest the world. need an exterminator for real now...
The incipient WWII references reveal an entire collective West which has not been able to move beyond that mid-20th Century conflict. In that Israel was formed as a result of the conflict keeps Israel as a state within the radius of everything the West can't seem to *grow beyond* regarding what happened *back then*.
When *they* talk about the war in Ukraine, they are not talking about OTAN's proxy war w/ Russia--they're talking about the unsettled elements of WWII: they are projecting onto it this 21st Century conflict. It's a Repetition Compulsion: ghosts must do again what gives them pain [ and I don't mean the ghosts of Kiev any more than I mean Chicken Kiev. ]
Russia grew up, and in that since levelled up--but the West has been unable to do so, chiefly because honesty DNA is lacking in the West & self-awareness is nil
In the West defense, the revenge sought by the tribe for WW2 has held it back, but not by its own doing, by those that got exactly what the deserved and are still angry things didn't go their way.
They kept the US in a infantile state, while draining it financially and spiritually.
I guess "an eye for an eye" has eternal shelf life.
By your Jew masters? Explain exactly what the ‘holocaust’ was.
6000000 Jews gassed behind a wooden door then incinerated to absolutely nothing such that no evidence whatsoever remains? That there are no documents whatsoever ordering such ?
lol. You believe this ghetto Jew fairy tale?
What about Irene zizblatt who swallowed then pooped out then found and swallowed a diamond multiple times. The Jew is greedy but really.
Also that the Germans were able to magically erase her ‘number tatoo’ such that no scars exist?
Really. This is just ghetto kike lies to try and gain symphony.
Why are ther western countries that make it illegal to even question this nonsense.
There are no evidence of jewish "holocaust." There are plenty of evidence of Palestinian Holocaust run by fascist jews in Israel with the help of their brethren in diaspora.
If you want to see a real genocide just look at what the Jew is doing in occupied Palestine. The Jew holidays all celebrate genocides of opposing tribes.
That’s idiotic to compare the Jew who stole land from a formed civilization to building a civilization in savage lands where there was nothing but fauna sub human savages
You are proving your malice. Colonizers "always" commit genocide. Some numbers to stack up against a purported 6 million. African Congo 1890s until 1912 I think is when it ended: 12 million people murdered. Many had their hands chopped off, to terrorize the rest into working harder for King Leopold. Even the Europeans were disgusted by this genocide, but they never did anything to stop it.
In French Cameroons, the French murdered 20 million people. That goes without comment in Europe and without talk of reparations in France. M'balabala Dieudonne, whose father is from Cameroons has had his career savaged because he talks about Palestine and compares it to the Cameroon genocide. Staying in Africa, the Germans did the Herero and Namaqua Genocide totalling about 110, 000, 1905-07. In the 1930's the Italians killed over 1 million people in Libya. In 1943, the British killed 3 to 4 million in the Bengal holodomor. Before that, the Brits killed 250,000 Greeks (yes, while people) in 1941-42 to reduce the food available to the Germans. Interestingly, many Turks tried to come to the aid of the Greeks. Some Turks got food through the UK's Royal Navy blockade, but others lost their lives as the RN sunk Turkish ships. And what are we to call the slaughter of 27 to 29 million citizens of the USSR ? Genocde.
As for the 6 million, I have never seen anyone doing the sums which add up to the neighborhood of 6 million. 2 or 3 million, yes - and that's bad, very bad - but only crazed racist Jewish supremacists and their deceived goyim untermensch push the 6 million figure. I'm damn glad to be in America because people in Europe go to jail for saying what I just wrote. The French dissident, Alain Soral, is in a Swiss prison for saying that Zionism is a form of racism. Freedom of speech. Use it or lose it.
The Holocaust is very real. I saw Auschwitz, and those were not "showers". And Auschwitz has been preserved by the Soviet Bloc, who had no reason to alter it to make it different than it was. Also, I heard many *first-hand* testimonials, some from my own family who lived through WWII. These were not fake, either.
But, you know what? The Holocaust was not just about, and not even primarily, about the Jews. More Slavs---Poles and Russians, mostly---were persecuted and exterminated, than the Jews. Even if you believe in the inflated number of 6 million, the gassed and shot Slavs still vastly outnumber that. And the number of Gypsies killed in these camps is at least a match for the Jews, as well.
So yes, the Holocaust existed---but the Jews do not own it. Russia has as good, or better claim on being the victim, and so do many other groups inconvenient to the German übermenschen.
I have no way to verify the actual numbers; it could be 1 million Jews as you say instead of 6, I just don't know. But mass extermination did take place, and there were transports going to Auschwitz, and Treblinka, and Gross Rosen, etc., also of Jews from ghettos, among others.
And these were not labor camps---some prisoners were taken out to labor on secret projects like the underground factories in Silesia, and these did backbreaking work, and were fed better, but were all shot at the end to maintain the secrets. But the majority of inmates were starved or gassed or shot or torn apart by SS dogs in the concentration camps. Again, I have it first hand, from witnesses who had no reason to lie---my grandpa, among others, who was in at the liberation of what was left of Auschwitz, and spoke with the few survivors. Most of whom were Russian and Polish, but there were lots of Jews and Gypsies exterminated in these camps as well.
And there was extermination going on outside the KZLs as well, in plain sight, entire villages shot or herded into a barn and burned, children and all, mostly by the SS but also by Ukrainian auxiliaries. And this was going on in plain sight, and again I spoke with people who saw this first hand, and with families of survivors. Most of these villages were Polish or Russian, but there were Jewish schtetls exterminated, too.
I don't give a f*ck what some rabbi says; one rabbi says yes, another rabbi says no, and yet they somehow both are lying. ;-) What I do know, is that it was mostly the relatively poor Jews that got the short end of the stick; the truly rich ones had a much better survival rate.
"Most of these villages were Polish or Russian, but there were Jewish schtetls exterminated, too."
But only jews made a profitable business on "shoah" while demanding more and more "reparations" for a "generational trauma" and destroying any honest historian/engineer, whose research does not complain with the "shoah" memes. And don't forget that the holobiz extraction schema was imposed on the collective west at the same time when the jewish fascists have been looting and genociding the Palestinian population (since 1937).
Before the jewish terrorists' actions in Palestine, there were the jewish terrorists' actions in Russia leading to the jewish Bolshevik Revolution, which resulted in the deaths of the millions of the innocent of all ages. The first Soviet government was 85% jewish. The first secret police organs (and the first concentration camps) were organized and run by jews like Naftali Frenkel, Yagoda (Ieguda), Zalkind (aka Zemlyachka), Berman, Kaganovich, itsikovich (aka Goloschyokin), and the likes. The jewish sadists targeted Christian clergy, prominent military men, the prosperous and knowledgeable peasantry, and nobility.
The ongoing real holocaust in Gaza should give everyone an idea of what had happened in Russia when the jewish revolutionaries (financed by the jewish bankers like Warburg and Schiff) unleashed their hatred and genocidal zeal upon all ethnic groups in the former Russian Empire. That was a monumental Crime against Humanity.
"entire villages shot or herded into a barn and burned, children and all, mostly by the SS but also by Ukrainian auxiliaries."
Nuland-Kagan run the illegal putsch in Kiev in 2014 in collaboration with the self-proclaimed Ukrainian Nazis (banderites). All jewish members in US congress have been supporting the weaponization of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis.
Russia's primary risks are high interest rates on deficits that comes with accelerated war spending, and BRICS nations failing to come through because they are owned. Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China and India are all vulnerable to sanctions and are economically dependent on exports to the US (where the money is) and are acting strange.
Coolest missile name goes to the Houthis. Those dudes are just cool period. Packing knife on chest. Poorest nation in world take on superpower and stop intl shipping, no problem
Shot down so many Reaper drones they leave Russia alone now ....and made Supercarrier skedaddle back home.
yes their name is the Ansar Allah movement or the "Friends of Allah" in English. The leader's name however is al-Houthi because the Houthi tribe started the movement.
That's his name, and the tribe's name - but it is not the name of the political military organisation that is organising the resistance
The tribe is not 'as one', besides it has many aspects which have nothing to do with AA, indeed clans and factions which are not exactly opposed but which have their own opinions
To reduce a political military organisation to it's 'identity' as a tribe not only nonsense, it is US speak intended to trivialise and falsely to define a leadership
and a people as collectively inseperable and responsible
In other words .....propaganda
The US gvmt would wish that the US people was so collectively supportive of US gvmt interventions, ha!
I have to admit, I am having a bit of trouble trying to figure out what your point is as you seem extremely committed to disagreement here. These people are commonly and widely known in most all circles on all sides and from most all perspectives as "the Houthis" or "Ansar Allah" or "Yemenis".
And to hijack a discussion with repeated, long-winded "correction" of "politically incorrect" detail is often attention-seeking, if not outright trolling.
You made your point with you 1st "correction". Why such a need to br affirmed as "correct?"Are you trolling, Mr White? Or are you attention seeking?
G'day Sam, are you sure Ansor/Ansar is friend. Ansor is an Indonesian youth military/militia wing of Nadhlatul Ulama the largest Islamic organisation in the world.
They were (and still are by many) called the Houthis due to the original leader's name al-Houthi. But since they have renamed themselves as the Ansar Allah movement.
The Houthi movement (/ˈhuːθi/; Arabic: الحوثيون al-Ḥūthiyūn [al.ħuː.θi.juːn]), officially known as Ansar Allah[f] (أنصار الله ʾAnṣār Allāh, lit. 'Supporters of God'), is a Shia Islamist political and military organization that emerged from Yemen in the 1990s. It is predominantly made up of Zaidi Shias, with their namesake leadership being drawn largely from the Houthi tribe.[91]
Yes - AA is the name of a specific organisation, politivcal and military, dedicated to taking power over the whole of Yemen, largely accepted by the majority of the Houthi clans, but who's aims and ambitions far surpass the tribal, and which now extend to influencing politics and the military balance of power in West Asia
Hence the Red Sea attacks, the Eilat port shutdown the direct attacks on Israel, the opening of an office in Iraq
To confuse or confound the two is at best ignorance at worst the dumbest of racisms - both of which have much contributed to US defeat at the hands of the AA
ID's the missile as Ghadr-110 (F variant) and states that part of its ability to defeat AD systems stems from release of submunitions just following boost phase as WW calls it:
"➡️ SM-3 Limitations: The RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) ship-based surface-to-air missile is one of the few systems capable of intercepting missiles at such high altitudes, but the Ghadr’s early submunition release was designed to outsmart it. SM-3 is optimized for hitting single, intact warheads, not a cloud of smaller submunitions scattered over a wide area.
➡️ Arrow 2 and 3 Response: The Arrow-3 likely fired at the empty booster, mistaking it for the main threat. Meanwhile, Arrow-2 may have targeted the submunitions, but dealing with so many dispersed warheads is a challenge even for advanced systems.
➡️ Iron Dome's Role: The Iron Dome probably tried to intercept the submunitions, but its focus is on stopping single, direct threats. The dispersed nature of the submunitions, spread across a wide area, made it nearly impossible for Iron Dome to handle."
Right or not? It does seem consistent with impacts over a considerable area yet the main target being struck nearly precisely. An alternative to the initial Israeli claim that the incoming missile 'exploded' or the later iteration that it broke up in flight.
Russian citizens appear to take in stride the efforts of Budanov & his ilk to divide civil society & to destabilize the populace, whether by arranging elaborate parlor tricks like the InKursion to Nowhere or by committing terrorist attacks on synagogues & churches in the Caucasus as a means of fomenting religious tensions: they’ve seen these stunts before & they are not fooled.
It would be interesting to study @ what point in a war of a certain duration—approaching 3 years, for instance, like this one—that the propaganda saturation loses steam & viability. Failing to vary the capers & antics--and the narratives about the capers & antics--allows a numbing predictability to set in, every bit as lethal for a feets-don't-fail-me-now combatant like Ukraine as failing to update LOC strategy & tactics.
>And it’s true that Russia will likely face growing recruitment pressures given the fact that Russia has verifiably been increasing signing bonuses by unprecedented levels recently. There can really be no other reason for such high recruitment bonuses other than to keep the numbers flowing steadily as before, which means they must have drooped.
Why would I sign up for the meat grinder if I know that my government is not doing everything it could to win the war quickly and without exposing me to unnecessary risk? Because that is precisely the situation in which the Russian army finds itself in -- the Kremlin has been primarily playing the game of serving the Russian oligarchs' interests rather than seriously trying to win -- this all could have been over two years ago if the appropriate measure had been taken, with 20K Russian casualties max, rather than the current 100K dead and who knows how many permanently disabled, and counting, with no end in sight. It can still be ended in a few weeks if the appropriate measures are taken now, but they are not being taken, so this will continue for who knows how much longer, and will still not bring victory in the end, another treasonous deal will be made, and there will be an even worse war further down the line.
>It seems everyone is truly buying into all the peace talk hype, but there is no imaginable reason for Russia to stop at a time they have finally gotten Ukraine on the ropes and primed for the KO blow.
There is -- Russian oligarchs desperately want to be part of the West again, and they are clearly still sufficiently powerful to veto the type of prosecution of the war that would result in real victory, as taking the kind of measures that will end the war quickly and in Russia's favor means an irrecoverable break with the West for the next several generations. They likely also have other reasons -- for example, who will pay for rebuilding all of Ukraine if Moscow was to take over the whole thing, which is the only way out of this mess that is some kind of a real victory for Russia? It will have to be Russia, and that is bad for them, because they will be forced to pitch in by the Kremlin. That sort of thing.
So yeah, Minsk-3 is very much on the table. Do you see a Russian army, two-million, three-million strong being prepared to quickly sweep to the Polish border, then permanently occupy and clean up the place down to the last Banderites? I very much don't. The Kursk fiasco was very telling -- we were waiting for a Russian Sumy offensive, in the end it turned out that NATO+AFU waltzed in without resistance and units had to be desperately scrambled from the deep rear and other parts of the front to stop them before they take truly important objects. Which meant that there was no Russian army whatsoever in Kursk preparing for a Sumy offensive...
I'm pretty sure Putin brought the oligarchs to heel. They aren't calling the shots any more.
Putin is playing it slow because he doesn't want to fall into the same hubristic trap that Hitler did, who was in a similar situation with Poland then as Putin is in now with Ukraine.
The 900,000 troop invasion Putin should have done day 1 and wrap this up in two weeks was not done so I can't go back to that mistake or any others like failure to mobilize....but putin is not in it to win it IMO
But let's focus on oligarchs you claim he brought to heel. because Russia has 6 ways to Sunday to cripple west right now without a shot fired but doesnt for oligarchs sake.
Blow bridges on Dniper once and for all cutting Ukraine in half but no that's where oligarchs ship their valuable minerals to the west.
US has 50 nuclear power plants which all get uranium fuel from Russia....
US Diesel fuel needs Russian heavy crude to make and its still shipping
50% of EUs gas still coming from Russia
Well you get the idea. Putin and "them" like the money more than ending this war.
You have said everything short of "The sky is falling! The sky is falling!". Actually, perhaps that is precisely what you are saying. And it deserves the same ridicule as Chicken Little received.
You still fail to see how this war has defeated the Western alliance and brought it to the edge of economic and military disaster, a feat not possible had they finished this in a matter of days as you suggest.
Undoubtedly has this long War brought a severe attrition to the West, in any case more than for Russia. But it is history in hindsight. Russia never planned for a ever escalating war going on for years. GM is right. The russian soldiers will start to wonder wether this war will ever end. So will the Russian people.
The Russian people certainly want this war to end, but they want it to end with the right results and generally are quite supportive of the Kremlin's strategy. They know this is not a war against Ukraine, but against NATO and they know that the road to ultimate victory is long and will see NATO disarmed and economically crippled.
Actually, it doesn't. The power with the greatest ability to withstand losses is the power that wins in a war of attrition. That is not to say Russia will not suffer many losses (I agree it already has), but the end is inevitable - Russia wins, Ukraine loses and NATO is crippled.
Agree. But we havent seen it all yet. Britain called itself a Victor after WW2. They fell into oblivion in the 50s and 60s.
US&EU has 1 billion people against Russias 140 millions. Taxes can be imposed, mandatory military service imposed, industries boosted. Of course all this Climatehoax, feminising the society and Hbtq-ing the entire population must end before West will be a real threat to Russia. And before that we could see a crash of the whole western world as we knew it before.
Also Russia has a long history of being willing to fight to the last drop of peasant blood. Napoleon captured Moscow, and the Russians just shrugged, burned all the nearby farms and waited for the frogs to starve.
"Russian oligarchs desperately want to be part of the west again'.
I stopped reading this rubbish after that.
The BBC at the behest of the British and US governments (much of it appears to come directly from Washington these days) has mined everywhere for evidence of disaffected oligarchs and/or, along with western intelligence, tried to turn them, and has found quite the reverse. It has been one of the great failures of the western narrative war, now acknowledged. So you may as well go back to your knitting with this one. GM.
On a more serious note, if Russian oligarchs want to be anywhere other than Mother Russia, it is where the money is going to be going forward. And that is not going to be in the sun setting western empire. You need to do some economic catch-up, GM.
I think we can agree that Putin "tamed" the oligarchs. He exiled or sent to prison the irreductible ones (e.g. Khodorkovski) and ordered the remaining ones to stay out of PUBLIC politics.
But that doesn't mean that the oligarchs doesn't have any political power inside Russia, or that they don't have any economic interests outside Russia.
IMO opinion, the argument that Western govs. have not managed to "turn over" any Russian oligarchs is weak: If an oligarch would go over to the other side and be public about it, that would be high treason and would get all his Russian assets confiscated (as happened to Khodorkovski) and it would become a public leper, as no one inside Russia would risk to be be recognized as being associated to him. In fact, the best use for a traitor oligarch inside Russia would to pose as a "moderate patriot", with a focus on precisely not gravely harming the Russian economy.
I think that there is a kernel of truth in GM's words in the sense that most oligarchs & very wealthy individuals not only in Russia but across the whole world including Global South & BRICS do not want to excessively "shake things up" with the US & UK based global financial system. This is because ALL of them use the City of London's offshore tax havens to hide their ill gotten gains (or even their rightly gotten money that they don't want to get taxed & accounted for). So, whether you are a Russian Oligarch, Chinese billionaire, Spanish football star or corrupt European satrap, you definitely do not want to see the Western financial system collapse or see the US$ (the usual currency of these offshore accounts) hyperinflate.
OTOH, an unacknowledged driver of the present Russian economic boom is precisely that all Western corporations (& Russian oligarchs) that had repatriated their profits out of Russia and into the Western financial system are out of the play and now all profits stay inside Russia and are reinvested locally. Funnily, this was not a Kremlin policy but the result of Western sanctions....
This is a highly interesting documentary on the topic of the City of London's spider web of offshore jurisdictions enabling worldwide corruption, tax evasion & money laundering:
>Funnily, this was not a Kremlin policy but the result of Western sanctions....
Yeah, and now the Kremlin wants the sanctions lifted.
So which one is it -- are the sanctions good for the Russian economy, as many are telling us, or bad?
For the record, I think they are good. But what does that tell us about the Kremlin wanting them lifted? And about the Kremlin's policies in the previous three decades? If sanctions are good now, then not being sanctioned previously and being integrated with the West was bad, right?
I understand the fear of massive sanctions that the Kremlin had... in March 2022.
Now? As you point out, Russia is not hurting from the sanctions, it should not be at all in a hurry to ask for these being lifted. OTOH, after watching the results, sanctions should be a Russian weapon to leverage against the "West".
We hear about 12:1 in artillery, 5:1 in men, thousands of FAB.s but no breaktrough. How come?
I think Russia is not strong enough and do not risk their assets in any way they can control. AFU, with the help from US/NATO has already inflicted so much damage and losses that they do not dare anything more than what they do for now.
Otherwise we should see strong offensives. I myself would see the center of logistic, Dniepropetrovsk surrounded/eliminated.
The reason for Russia not daring an offensive from Zaporizhzhia in the direction of Dnipropetrovsk is the difficulties with logistics. They also have fever men in that area, 55 000 according to Uki quotes, and is only defending the Surovikin line. Russian columns reaching the Dnieper would also be mindshattering for the AFU:s morale.
One thing we tend to forget is the size of the Ukraine Military. In 2022 it had 250,000 regulars plus 500,000 reservists. It also had over 100,000 militarised police and border gaurds. 100,000 men volunteered as soon as Russia attacked. Since then there have been multiple waves of conscription. Well over a million men have passed through the ranks over the last 2 1/2 years. This is a big force and takes time and effort to destroy and multiple operations. A single big arrow offensive is very western in thinking but was never part of Soviet doctrine because they realised that big armies cannot be destroyed in this way. My sense is that Stavka is being too slow now, but I do not have access to their information. However what is clear is that the UAF has been comprehensively attritted down to the levels where it is now becoming ineffective on the battlefield (ie unable to carry out missions successfully) and Russia appears to have achieved this with a fraction of the manpower losses incurred on the UAF, using firepower instead. However this trades time for men, and is an exchange that might work against them.
It's not about "one big operation", it is about doing the things that you should be doing to deprive the enemy of resources, that have not been done to this day for two and a half years now.
Also, the more territory Russian controls, the smaller the conscription pool of the AFU. Automatically. So it was vital to grab as much land as quickly as possible early on, and to then not do goodwill gestures.
There's a Napoleon quote: "Space we can recover, time never".
It looks like Putin's strategy is to wait and wait in a passive-agressive stance while doing the "slow grind" until there is somehow an external political shock (Trump win, EU crisis, who knows...) that collapses the Kiev gov.
I, humble keyboard general, think that he is wrong and that he underestimates the US Empire capacity to escalate and to support unending wars...
It could have been "wrapped up in 2 weeks" the way American wars are "wrapped up" in 2 weeks. Leaving behind broken, but still highly armed countries that wreak havoc on their neighbors for decades.
Or maybe "wrapping it up in 2 weeks" could have given the neocons behind the Ukraine mess exactly what they want to this day: an excuse to go nuclear.
Or maybe it could have been "wrapped up in 2 weeks" & BRICS would be stillborn.
This is a multi-front war with the collective west. Kinetic in Ukraine. Economic, cultural, societal literally everywhere else.
As Karaganov said, nobody will sacrifice Boston for Poznan.
So yeah, two weeks.
You nuke the border crossings and stop weapons supplies, and dare NATO to enter directly under the threat that Finland, Sweden, Poland, Romania,, Germany etc. are next for strategic strikes that will end their existence if NATO does not back down, you finally shut down the grid (could have been done already on October 10th 2022, the first day of the missile strike campaign, if the Kremlin wanted to), you decapitate Ukrainian leadership, and yes, it will be over in a few weeks.
But it requires balls, and the resolution of the internal conflict inside Russia. As long as the treasonous faction in the elite holds as much power as it currently does, people will coninue dying.
P.S. Regarding the dreaded "nuclear" word, how many people died and how much physical destruction was there already? Remember that most of the people who died on the Ukrainian side are Russians too, and the cities destroyed in the course of the fighting are also Russian. How large an area has been made uninhabitable by mines and unexploded cluster submunitions and contaminated with depleted uranium? Now on official pre-war Russian territory too. The cumulative damage amounts to a dozen Hiroshima bombs already. It just didn't happen in one large bang, but why should that matter? And there is no end in sight.
As soon as you nuke the borders you've given the neocons the excuse they've been waiting for to nuke Russia. And 20-some years ago, the neocons changed US nuke doctrine from MAD to "decapitation strike " on Moscow.
Nukes in Ukraine would have been close enough. Same with the Nordics & Baltics.
Even if not, nuke Russia anywhere & Perimetr goes into effect.
Btw, Intel Slava Z posted a couple years ago that Perimetr had been put back on automatic. So even if nuke decapitation succeeds, we're all cooked.
The neocons will not nuke Rusisa just like that, because there will be a second strike.
What is happening right now -- gradually lowering the Russian guard by first sending conventional missiles into it, then swapping those with nukes -- is how you do it. And the Kremlin is playing along.
If the Kremlin was to wipe out the whole of NATO in Europe what will happen is that the US will tuck its tail between its legs and retreat to its own continent. There will be no strategic exchange, because then the US loses everything, not just the colonies in Europe.
Where the calculation breaks down is that the interests of elites do not coincide with the interests of the state they nominally reside in.
So it happens that when you are a rapacious predatory oligarchy that is aiming to take over the whole world, that also at least up to a point coincides with the interests of the country as a whole.
But if you are a rapacious predatory oligarchy that aims to strip mine its own country and then move elsewhere, that goes against those interests. And it can be exploited by the former kind.
The neocons have been clamoring for nuclear strikes since the start of the smo. The minute they successfully strike with nukes, all bets are off. There is nothing that says they won't strike US in response, instead of their next door neighbors & potential partners.
Russia is not "letting down its guard." It is driving UKR out of Kursk & beating the crap out of Sumy. It is attacking weakened spots all along the front. Every time Ukr tries to plug a hole, it opens a new one & Russia pushes through.
The 3 or so major transport hubs will soon be in cauldrons with fire control of exits. Once those last few hubs are taken, Ukr will have lost most if not all of its ability to resupply.
To end this year, it needs to happen before the October rains.
Truth be told, use of nukes can be avoided in one situation. Russia mobilizes, and attacks from Belarus and tries to take Lvov. And by "tries" I don't mean do whatever it is doing now, but actually attack along the entire front using many men and material. Control/levelling of Lvov will stop most weapons. To stop weapons fully, it would also need to finally land in Odessa. At this point, Ukraine landing in Crimea and getting a foothold seems more likely.
The moment for both of these was missed a long time ago.
Landing on Odessa could have been viable in the first days. The sinking of Moskva put an end to all such plans -- after that the Ukrainians had the anti-ship missiles plus ISR to stop any such attempts.
Going south from Brest along the border and taking Lvov was a viable idea up until some time early this year. Provided several hundred thousand men were allocated for it with all the gear.
Right now it's likely no longer viable because NATO is so deep in that they would enter directly to secure the territory themselves at the first sign a serious such operation was to begin.
So it's either slow grind from east to west for quite a long time, even with total mobilization and with proper strikes on the grid and logistics, or nukes on the border crossings and then let's see if NATO dares do anything in response.
"There is -- Russian oligarchs desperately want to be part of the West again, and they are clearly still sufficiently powerful to veto the type of prosecution of the war that would result in real victory, as taking the kind of measures that will end the war quickly and in Russia's favor means an irrecoverable break with the West for the next several generations."
In effect Mariupol was destroyed and tens of thousands died in order to protect Akhmetov's business interests.
Avdeevka was the same situation -- they didn't seriously bomb the coke plant for almost two years even after the SMO started in order to not destroy it. Guess who owned it. On the other side of the equation were some 15-20,000 civilians and soldiers from Donetsk who died from the shelling and in futile frontal assaults on the fortifications there.
This all happened already.
Why anyone in their right mind would think the Kremlin would never commit another act of treason given the extensive decades-long track record of doing precisely that, especially after there was already Istanbul AFTER THE SMO STARTED and likely another attemp behind the scenes THIS SUMMER, I don't understand.
Yes. The fact that they negotiated a cuckold deal in 2022 (surrender the South minus Crimea, help rebuild and talk negotiate with Zelensky vis-a-vis Donbass status) is cuckoldry of the highest order. I don't know why Simplicus thinks that Russia won't sign a deal just as it gets Ukraine on the ropes. If anything that is more consistent with Russia's MO than anything else. Indeed, it was already discussing not striking Ukrainian infrastucture, what? Who fights wars like this. If anything they should be taking a page out of the Israeli playbook.
Only way RUssia is going to Polish border is military coup. But of course thats impossible since Putin turned national guard into his own personal 350,000 man body guard. Putin will take almost any deal for peace and leave next guy to deal with a NATO armed Ukraine in 8-10 years to fight again.
Not going to the Polish border means total strategic defeat.
Because drones and missiles will be flying into Russia forever from whatever remains of Ukraine, destroying infrastructure, industry and military bases.
And then the even bigger war further down the line as you said.
So yeah, military coup in Russia is a better option at this point.
Simplicity’s, a quick question if you will: Is a land war in Europe (Eu/NATO) in the hegemonic interests of the Global American Empire? That is, will the GAE relative power increase with Europe looking like in did in 1947? American power came after two wars destroyed European competitive political centers and led US to gain manufacturing markets and dominate global currency, debt, etc. Would war on Europe once again improve the the GAE power structure?
I believe that is precisely what the neocons are working towards - a European land war with Russia that will cripple both and remove potential geopolitical and economic competitors from the scene, and opening the way to China and world domination.
The apparent cordiality of Russian-Chinese relations is deceptive. The Chinese (like the Israelis) don't have 'friends' and have a long history of adversarial relations with Russia.
And for very sound reasons - which Putin is well aware of - and may well be applying the 'friends close, enemies closer' principle in their relations.
Short term, Russia needs trade and tech from China, China benefits from trade and help throwing off the rule of the US dollar. Longer term, a weakened Russia, Europe and US works to further China's goal of being the preeminent world power...
Likely it is too dangerous a game to play for the purpose of gaining market share.
A more likely outcome would be the war quickly going nuclear. And I doubt the Russian government really wants to waste hundreds of thousands of military casualties to try and occupy a bunch of European populations that don't want to be part of such a war in the first place.
Provoking a war in Europe would serve the purpose of suiciding the white populations of Europe, Russia, and America. Or the deaths of billions of useless eaters worldwide if it goes nuclear or biological. Which is likely the real goal of these unceasing efforts to provoke a war with Russia, China, and Iran.
I believe the Russians would strike quickly to eliminate British/French nuclear capability - they have the ability to do this. With the nuclear threat from Europe gone they could do as they wish with Europe without threat of a nuclear retaliation.
As for the US in this scenario, they would withdraw support from Europe and let the cards fall where they may, hoping that both Europe and Russia are eliminated as potential military and economic competitors.
Well, no deep strikes into Russia yet. I wonder if Putin sent a pictures of all the long range precision missiles and lancet drones he would be sending to Iran if Ukraine gets the approval.
When I read Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” to the US, it reads like this:
1) Give us security guarantees that you will enter Ukraine and join the war
2) Give us weapons that can hit deep into Russia and let us use them.
3) When Russia retaliates, join the war because you gave us the guarantees.
4) Oh … and give us MORE MONEY!
Unless the crazies in the US (who actually want a direct war with Russia) prevail, this is a terrible plan and the US need to completely, unequivocally, and perpetually REJECT it outright.
Ironically it’s exactly the plan that Chamberlain followed when he gave security guarantees to Poland. Everyone in that case was tricked by those who actually wanted the war. Chamberlain was told Germany wouldn’t dare invade. Poland was belligerent and treated the German Danzig poorly instigating the invasion because they had that security guarantee. Germany believed that the U.K. would see reason but Churchill was bought and paid for so instead started bombing German civilians to escalate the war.
The result was WW2 and the complete collapse of the British Empire.
History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. Russia has the benefit of historical insight and its leaders are not driven by a radical ideology like Germany was but if it does come to this you can say bye bye to Europe and the US.
On points 1 - 4, what is the point of a proxy war if it ceases to be a war by proxy?
On Odessa, I see two positions advocated; it will become Russian by treaty and that NWO will never give it up. These seem incompatible to me and my sense is that Russia will have to take Odessa in a fait accompli manner when the timing is right - no matter how hard this may seem.
FFS, this deluded cunt is still here and has learned zero.
He's not here to learn, he's here to be a cunt :)
🤣🤣🤣
Russian CB interest rate was even higher, 20% in 2022, and economy didn't even budge.
Respectfully - you don't understand what interest rates are, or how they are used.
Example- a central Bank (eg Fed) sets the cash rate. This is the minimum rate that member banks can lend to EACH OTHER.
If rates increase, making interbank debt more expensive for banks, the banks then pass any increased costs by increasing interest rates on loansto individuals & businesses - anyone on a variable interest rate suddenly has to pay more.
The interest rate set by the central bank also determines the rates set for IOUs issued by governments, eg Fed bonds. Governments must pay a (usually) monthly return to whoever has loaned them $$ at the relevant interest rate that applies at the time of payment, and must also return the full amount to the bond buyer at the end of the bond.
A 19% interest rate is just a number. Whether it indicates that an economy is under strain or not, is a question of circumstances/context.
Russia may have a 19% rate, but in reality has an extremely healthy economy. Russia's relatively low debt means that the impact of an increase in rates by the Russian central bank can be managed relatively easily. The central bank could probably raise rates to 25% ++ (it won't but just as an example) the Kremlin could still service its debts, with no real risk to the Russian economy.
By contrast while the US interest rate is 5.25-5.50%, the US government has a massive debt ($35 trillion) that is 123% of GDP, so any movement upwards in interest rates made by the Fed, even 0.5%, also has a massive increase in the payment that DC must pay each month etc by $billions, putting the entire financial system & US economy (based on debt) at risk.
I hope that this helps.
What Jew owns starmer ?
His wife.
Khazar milkers have subverted more of us goyim than gold.
You might be interested in this:
https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-the-true-origin-of-the-jews-as-khazars-israelites-or-canaanites/
the jew probably inbread with the Kazar leadership as they have done in the USA and the "west". all major goy leaders now have jew grandchildren. Tuman was convinced to recognize israel by his jew haberdasher partner of their failed business. they infest everywhere but are jews first....
I love that kind of history, but I'm pretty sure modern genetic studies have debunked any khazar connection with modern jews. It's still fun to mock them with it occasionally. Ashk jews are just desert people who weaponized their DNA by admixture with Euro DNA. Sephardic jews are just arabs with delusions of grandeur.
That is accurate, just as Emhoff owns Kamala.
It is stated that the Tribe is the owner of most Western Pornography. So what pictures does Emhoff have of the infamous Willy Wonker?
You might enjoy this, history repeats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8AYHaz6ymM&list=WL&index=30&t=4s
You can only rent a whore.
it's actually a wealthy Indian who owns him:
https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-faces-investigation-over-possible-breach-of-parliamentary-rules-after-labour-donor-pays-for-wifes-clothes-13215216
Gay Bangladeshi Lord, I believe.
"Lord" street shitter and a negro "Foreign secretary" the UK is more controlled by the jew than the JewSA. kamal married to a jew and zion don are the "choices"
Dhdh you're a weirdo.
Anti-Semitism is the Socialism of fools.
He is a bit fixated, but are you aware that "antisemitism" no longer means anything, no longer the smear you wish it to be.
Like a child constantly using a curse word, it just becomes tiresome and no one cares any longer.
Kam. Yes I know that.
I know that Anti-Semitism is now used to excuse Zionist colonialism, but this douche is an old fashioned Nazi.
Anti semitism is the answer to the world’s problem. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
Unless of course you are just a Jew defending your tribe and proving my point. Then you should just shut up and go swing a chicken or felatio on a cut baby penis.
Dhdh. I'd rather be a Jew than a Nazi. You're the lowest form of life.
Marginalizing Non-jews is also an effective tool. For a while.
The only solution is to ban all judaic/talmudic education (indoctrination), same as a teaching of Nazism is banned today.
The supremacist lunacy and indoctrination in psychotic fear & hatred (which permeate the judaic/talmudic education) create genociders and enemies of Humanity.
Everything wrong is done by the Jews according them. Those folks are no difference than those BLM and those Demtrads playing the race card. It's always Elites vs the common people. Do they realized that the avg Jews is just living their lives like most that need to pay mortgage amid the spiralling spending cost to the banksters designed by the elites which happen to just include some jews?
lol. Stop watching Fox News. Banksters who just happen to be Jews. lol. Zion don is just a Jew tool.
Why did cops kneel to blm but attacked the pro Palestine protesters ?
Anti Zionism is not anti semitism. However, I think Israel is its own worst enemy especially if you expect The US to follow you to victory. When it gets tough or boring we cut our losses and run.
Jewish banker Jacob Schiff personally financed the likes of Trotsky to run the Jewish Bolshevik revolution in Russia in 1918. Before that, the same Schiff helped Japan to wage a war against Russia in 1904/1905. Jewish hatred of Russians (Iranians, Germans, Syrians, Ukrainians, Iraqi, Palestinians...) is unbounded.
Since the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine was “appropriated” by the jewish & banderite “interests." In 2014, an ugly jew Nuland-Kagan run a putsch in Kiev in an open collaboration with the Ukrainian Nazi Party "Svoboda." Are you aware that zionists are the best friends of the self-proclaimed Ukrainian Nazis, the followers of Stepan Bandera? The Jewish Lobby adores banderites and calls them "freedom fighters against Russians."
After the jew Nuland-Kagan did regime change in Kiev, a string of jews were selected to become presidents of Ukraine. Thus, the president of the jewish community of Ukraine, Kolomojsky, has bankrolled the presidential campaign of a homoerotic dancer and "penist" Zelensky who promised to establish a peace with Russia. The promise was broken. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are dead. Is this why Zelensky was named a "jew of the year" by the Jerusalem Post in 2022?
The president of the jewish community of Ukraine, Kolomojsky, also personally financed four (4) self-proclaimed Nazi battalions, including the Azov battalion, to protect his property in Donbas. The Kolomojsky's Nazis murdered some 16,000 people of all ages in Donbas. Israel loves and celebrates the Azov's Nazis: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2022-12-20/ty-article/.premium/downplaying-far-right-ties-ukrainian-war-hero-goes-on-israeli-publicity-binge/00000185-306c-dcac-a185-b8efb39e0000
Currently, the Kievan Junta is busy with looting the Orthodox Christian Churches and imprisoning and even murdering the Orthodox Christians. Meanwhile, the monstrous jewish center “menorah” (the largest synagogue in Europe) continues to dominate the Dnipro landscape, reminding everyone there about the real owners of Ukraine.
Before the ongoing Judea War on Russia, jews had already genocided millions of human beings of all ages in the former Russian Empire during and after the Jewish Bolshevik revolution: https://www.unz.com/pub/jhr__the-jewish-role-in-the-bolshevik-revolution-and-russias-early-soviet-regime/
So how many Muslims and Africans will be signing up to the new British recruitment campaign to march on Moscow.
After all, Diversity is a Strength, not a Weakness...
Where are the Israelis going to house them? Maybe give them some Palestinian land for their own settlement?
Lord Alli likely bangs Sir Keir Starmer's wife, (lets see the clothes he bought her) I think this because Keir strikes me as a cuck both personally and politically.
The buyers of government treasury bonds in a distressed market, get to set the government conditions
Back door printing/credit creation by the U.S. Fed to backstop Foreign demand for U.S. Debt is already on under way.
U.S. Government Debt Markets are a short-fuse time bomb.
The real lenders will only hold short term paper, everyone else has the under-the-table "guarantee" to be made whole by the Group. For whatever that is worth.
Strip Poker and you are down to your jockstrap.
Dang Jews! It is always the Jews and never us!
Why would you defend the sin merchant chicken swingers ?
I am not defending them idiot. Yall are funny. Normies just cannot say no to the jews and blame all their problems on them. You know you do not need to drink or smoke or murder your children, etc. Just say no.
You are normie who will never name the Jew. Enjoy your mullato grand kids retard.
Hahaha petty nigger. Keep taking in that copium, loser.
His wife of convenience. She’s owned by M
He's a creature of the boss class, you pretend antisemite nonce.
What is boss class ? Name the Jew coward.
Russia must not make a peace agreement. Russia must press on militarily against US/NATO neocon proxy Ukraine until it surrenders and its AFU forces and equipment are crushed. Why?
Well, The Neos went all in to control Ukraine in its push to dismantle Russia and rob it of its natural wealth just as it planned for Ukraine. The hegemon has overextended, overspent, and over-rated itself for the world to see using "WAR" for profit and for winning the hearts and minds of non-compliant nations. lol But in their self-deluded ad-lib planned haste to put its grip on the big bear without gloves got themselves all bloodied and scratched up really well. In fact the NEO's have caused themselves more of an existential threat than to the Russians. The joke is that the Neos have screwed themselves by giving the Russians the upper hand. To me, this is pure absurd comedy.
Now the Neos, with their backs against the wall economically, militarily, and strategically, appear set to double down doing all sorts of silly things but they're getting their asses kicked on the battlefield where it all counts, right?
My point is as long as Russia controls the show in Ukraine, they have neutralized Neo-NATO's expansionary conquest intentions while systematically destroying its AFU proxy army and gaining valuable land resource assets.
Give no concessions to your enemy when you can better off defeat them.
Let's see what Russia does.
Here's what NATO looks like behind the mask.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ALpmsUfKWiY
Seems highly unlikely with Kiev bitterly arguing it would never sanction a "freeze" leaving lost territory to Russia and Russia would never sanction a freeze either, at least till it reaches the Dnieper and even then would continue to strike accros at any heavy weapons or Nuclear capable systems indefinitely.
They are a Galaxy apart.
Someone needs to break it to Zelensky that the losers don't get to dictate terms.
he is a jew, and of indecent kind; he will be "puzzled" by the idea that global jewry is not going to rush to make him a wealthy and powerful "effendi" (aka Churchill).
Germany The End of Days
This is what régime change in Germany looks like
« Germany fails to rearm »
Not since the Nibelungenlied 1924 Frizt Lang, has the German and Nordic architecture of tradition and security been so well mise en scène and re constructed, this time on think tank paper
For the first time the intellectuals are fighting for the people, but this is Euro PMC, just as US prissy, more precise
Yet their cold evasive prose almost makes one stalgic for the forlorn feebleness of the Post Russia crews, with their ethnic shawls and their Buryat cooking poys and their Yahkut tent hugging
The enemy the Think Tankers are fighting is within, is recent German politics and society, half a foot in the appeal to heroic times, half another spent carefully painting the monstrous enemy in ghastly tones, called by name yet careful never to describe what how and why
The argument is that the foolish and treacherous actions of the traditional German state both created the monster and invited the monster to invade Europe
This is the cold version of US doomerism, which comes across cuddly by comparison – but which is all a political ploy, cloaked a fake appeals to tradition
Annexe : Biographies, people, quotes and links
Benjamin Tallis is a member of the group security for Germany and Europe think tank society
His twitter feed kicks off with a photograph of Kaja Kallas, the innocent Brünhilde of lore ravaged before she could inherit her birthright
https://nitter.poast.org/bctallis
Just as noble a Siegfried is-
Fabian Hoffmann
https://missilematters.substack.com/
https://nitter.poast.org/frhoffmann1
Guarding the High Palace is The Kiel Institute for the World Economy
https://nitter.poast.org/kielinstitute
Currently holding a Gates inspired Vision for Africa Conference, as if in belated comptetition with the China FOCAC : however here, instead of Heads of State, some Phd Grads and academics uphold the dying flames of US interventionism, as exrmplified by the current chaos in their two proxies, Nigeria and Kenya, via debt slavery, and ind agri caused enviro disasters
« Germany is rearming too slowly to stand up to Russia’
10 September 2024
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/germany-is-rearming-too-slowly-to-stand-up-to-russia/
« Fit for war in decades : Europe’s and Germany’s slow re armament vis-à-vis Russia »
September 2024
fw-kiel.de/publications/fit-for-war-in-decades-europes-and-germanys-slow-rearmament-vis-a-vis-russia-33234/
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/1f9c7f5f-15d2-45c4-8b85-9bb550cd449d-Kiel_Report_no1.pdf
« Designing around NATO’s deterrence : Russia’s Nordic information confrontation strategy
Journal of Strategic Studies Karen Anna Eggen
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/01402390.2024.2332328?needAccess=true
Journal of Strategic Studies
‘The strategic-level effects of long rage strike weapons ; A framework for analysis »
Journal of Strategic Studies Fabian Hoffmann
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/01402390.2024.2351500?needAccess=true
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fabian-hoffmann1_the-strategic-level-effects-of-long-range-activity-7201569883476701186-uuZH
« The end of Zietenwende’
German Council on Foreign Relations August 30 2024 Benjamin Tallis
https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/end-zeitenwende
https://dgap.org/en/research/programs/alfred-von-oppenheim-center-future-europe/action-group-zeitenwende#members
https://ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende-here-its-just-unevenly-distributed
https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/germany-needs-finish-job-and-think-bigger
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/germany-remains-denial-over-its-russia-policy
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ruprecht-polenz-fordert-enquete-kommission-zu-aufarbeitung-von-deutscher-russland-politik-a-cbfb377b-e4b1-4864-b3ba-6401ba49434c
Kiel
After decades of military downsizing, German military spending is woefully inadequate to meet the new strategic challenge posed by Russia—as both a new report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the new Kiel Military Procurement Tracker show. In combination with a cumbersome national procurement system and depending on weapon systems it would take Germany as much as a century to bring its military inventory up to the level of 20 years ago. In contrast, Russia is radically increasing its capacity to produce armaments, including advanced systems, and is now in a position to produce as many weapons in six months as all of Germany’s armed forces currently field.
© stock.adobe.com | Rajko Trostorf
“Russia is becoming an ever greater security threat to NATO,” says Guntram Wolff, Fellow at the Kiel Institute and lead author of the report “Fit for war in decades: Europe's and Germany’s slow rearmament vis-à-vis Russia”.
“At the same time, we in Germany are making slow progress in committing to rearmament needed for deterrence. What Europe needs now is a permanent, substantial, and immediate increase in Germany’s regular defense spending to at least 2 percent of GDP, in addition to the special fund. Let's be clear—any ‘business as usual’ approach would be negligent and irresponsible in the face of Russian aggression.”
The German government is currently barely managing to replace the weapons it is sending to Ukraine–the Bundeswehr's stockpile of air defense systems and howitzers has even plummeted. It was not until 2023, a good year after Russia attacked Ukraine, that Germany began to raise regular defense spending in any significant way, finally pushing annual spending above the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP. The coalition has since awarded military contracts worth some 90 billion euros (the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker documents all German defense purchases announced since 2020).
But Wolff and his co-authors criticize the government’s military spending goals for not being ambitious enough. They estimate it would currently take Germany nearly a hundred years to restore the Bundeswehr's military capacity to 2004 levels—the result of drastic downsizing by successive preceding governments and overly slow and modest rearmament by the current administration.
The End of the Zeitenwende
Reflections After Two Years of Action Group Zeitenwende
Dr. Benjamin Tallis
https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/end-zeitenwende
© IMAGO / Political-Moments
This personal assessment challenges whether Germany’s Zeitenwende has achieved its goals. While it reflects the author’s views, not necessarily the view of all members of DGAP’s Action Group Zeitenwende, the debate continues. In the coming weeks, DGAP’s magazine Internationale Politik Quarterly will invite more experts to explore whether Germany’s Zeitenwende has failed or what it needs to succeed.
Evaluating the results of the “Zeitenwende,” Germany’s supposed security transformation, shows that it has failed. A two-year DGAP project concludes that the Zeitenwende, proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, no longer carries political force and should be abandoned as a term of use. By presenting strategic continuity as change, it has left Germany unprepared to face major (geo)political and (geo)economic challenges, and has eroded influence with allies. Germany now needs a comprehensive strategic reset - and bold leadership in domestic as well as foreign policy - to arrest its decline and ensure its security, prosperity, and democracy.
Germany’s Zeitenwende has failed. That is the sweeping, yet inescapable, conclusion after a two-year evaluation by the German Council on Foreign Relations’ (DGAP) Action Group Zeitenwende (AGZ). The project brought together German and international politicians, officials, experts and business representatives in different formats, building a network as well as knowledge. In more than forty events and over thirty publications we analyzed and explored Germany’s geostrategic positioning and choices and presented options to help the country master its geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
The Valkyries will ride, especially on behalf of KK: while the dead heroes are being ferried to Valhalla, she will vent her spleen w/ such diva-charged ferocity that even people @ the back of the opera house will feel the floorboards shudder
KK is going to have her work cut out, perhaps she can retire and let her Image linger on in myth
These youngsters are very much more ferocious and outspoken than she is
The enemy is not Russia is it us
It is intolerable to realize that even Fritz Lang would be ashamed. Sad Germany has whipped out the tiniest of violins and instead of playing Mozart is playing "Turkey In The Straw."
Well...it's a fairly grand vision of Germany's future which is being sketched out
Leader of the new Europe and off to slay the Eastern Hun
Not sparing China neither, nor Africa
The Lang film was, or could be taken to be, ambivalent, even as supportive of the Nazis
So could these plans
Some say this was always the intention of the US: to revive the Third R
The Fourth R is emerging in the USA.
It always was
I wish... Zion Don or Kamala who is married to a jew...
that is stupid - the "west" is a colony of the jew...
OT, german Die Welt newspaper reports that the perpetrator of the 2nd Trump assassination attempt used to recruit volunteeres to fight for Ukraine. Perhaps the Ukrainian secret service is not only adept at bombing pipelines,but also to guide stooges to remove US presidents not to their liking?
Guardian also reports about the suspect https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/15/trump-florida-shooter-suspect-son-ukraine
It's even simpler. "Ukrainian" is not a nationality or ethnicity but a political and religious standing, hinting at a socially dangerous psychic condition. This guy got affected.
Thank you as always Simplicius, your articles are always well researched, written and a pleasure to read, not to mention the education received with a good dose of reality check tempering Western propaganda… its hard to fathom and believe the dribble, literal garbage that today and in the months beginning Q4 2021, before this conflict began the lies, hubris and outright fantasies Western media hacks, comprising the presstitutes are want to write about… rubbish that is nothing more than dribble, human excrement, the acres of column space they have dedicated to promulgating fantasy truly incomprehensible, it is thanks to you, the Alex’s on the Duran, Andrei Martyanov of SmoothieX12, Dimitry Orlov, Gil Doctorow, Scott Ritter, Doug MacGregor, Larry Johnson, Judge Andrew Napolitano, Ray McGovern, Jeffrey Sachs, John Mearshimer, Jacques Baud, Pepe Escobar, being amongst the very best and most vociferous Western alternate media truth tellers and commentators that we are able to glean anything resembling fact based reporting, thankfully Borzzikkman yourself, John Helmer, Mark Sleboda on the Russian side confirm much of what these brave Western commentators prepared to challenge the official narrative speak of, thus providing us, those who follow you the surety of knowing the truth from the bull shitzen…. thank you and wishing Putin, the Russian Leadership, and its peoples the very, very best as you march inexorably toward a just victory…. time to end Western tyranny, multipolarity a new paradigm, so wanted, long awaited, bring it on… Kia Kaha from New Zealand
Rethink Sachs-- he was an instrumental apparatchik trying to facilitate the resource plundering of the 90s Soviet Union/ emerging Russia for his Neo-Con bosses. Part of the Bill Browder/Oligarch gangs trying to steal the resources for the West. Here we are with the same moves being attempted now with Sachs rebranding himself --pathetic.
Sachs has changed dramatically from those days. He finally saw the light. Anyone who escapes the claws of Mordor should be praised, not shamed.
Quite right
I think he has to do more than change his tune, he abbetted plunder so more than mea culpa is needed.
True, unless reporting on 'adversarial topics' is the new money maker, that he and many others have discovered.
his department is called sustainable development at the university where he works. Sounds like 2030 agenda
Ben-Gurion said:
Judaism = communism. It is almost genetics in this group. They can be top Wall Street capitalist, but, still have a soft spot for communism as well as hate for the West.
Sachs is a true penitent. In my book, that's worth a lot, because so few can comprehend the error of their way and truly try to make amends. That he has done aplenty, without making excuses for how misguided he was originally.
As an aside, Max Blumenthal, who has been doing great and significant work with the Gray Zone, is my other worthy penitent. He was badly misled originally when the anti-Assad revolts started, thinking them to be part of the Arab Spring. But he quickly realized who those "Young rebels" really were, having noticed how quickly they became armed to the hilt. Meaning, these oh-so-brave rebelious youth (ie a sizeable fraction of the crowds that turned to anti-Assad rallies) were obviously armed and directed by you know who.
Having thus witnessed the subterfuge of using the Arab Spring to hide a color revolution in the making, Max has reversed his earlier position and has become a staunch brave voice on all Middle eastern shenanigans, with special emphasis on that most "innocent' of all - Israel.
I wish them both well and am proud to support their work.
Re your comments Columbia Emiritus and Tenured Prof Jeff Sachs Economics, I concur, however are we not as a race better to embrace those who having erred, have Sen the light, been so called Red Pilled and crossed over?
I believe unless we with our entrenched positions are able to forgive and forget for those who make a genuine attempt, indeed using their stellar platform and reps to perpetuate unmitigated truth and reality we will forever be in a losing battle…
The fight being fought on this earth presently undoubtedly between forces with markedly different ideologies and beliefs, when stripped back and looked at under the microscopical detail one needs to subject such discourse unto, will find that there is a genuine effort to make amends…
A mea culpa… I too once denigrated Sachs and vilified him, aware only to intimately of all he had done in his past, to enable tyranny and the fascist agenda we are now dealing with, I recall after hearing and viewing one of his very first t public appearances after it seemed having changed, then following him, publicly apologised to the man I consider has shown more aplomb, courage, and fortitude to call it at is it actually is, to call out his own government as we view him frequently doing on the myriad forums upon which he is invited to offer his views and discourse, to parse comment, much it can be said to the chagrin of many a host who at that earliest time of his coming of true age and to the realisation he had been on the wrong side of everything he once believed to be proper and correct wrote an apology… I now hold him in the highest of regard, proud of his speaking out and lending voice to challenge all we know to be vile and evil ….
Sachs is no dilettante nor a Machiavellian character, though he might be considered to be flawed, none of us are perfect, the first will be last and the last will be first and in this battle we are living.. a battle to Yale of the forces of good vs the forces of true evil, for evil on every measurable scale, calculus and metric these current conflagrations must be said to be…. I’d rather err on the side of acceptance than of recrimination…. We need all and every hand, every shoulder to the wheel pushing on the same direction to end the fascist globalist, WEF tyranny that has swept this world of ours in recent decades, power to Jeff and all like him I say, after all, none of us have a mortgage on what constitutes good, we are takers, as in price setting, and will benefit from and must therefore take at this stage of this battle whatever we can get of good that comes our way… predicate upon that thought, I refuse now to be judgmental of anyone, the lesson well and truly learned, I pray I am right…
Kia Kaha from New Zealand
Was he?
Just recently Sachs discussed his role in Russia in the 90's, and he strongly states that he was not one of the plundering Chicago Boyz.
https://www.racket.news/p/a-true-shock-economist-jeffrey-sachs
The article is relatively short and worth reading.
I, for one, would love to see a Simplicius YouTube channel for a wider reach. More people need to be properly educated and unfortunately the reach, via Substack, is not broad enough.
No way. One gets deeper and more serious insights from written text than from gabbing heads. And I just don't have the time to spend hours listening to all the Judge Nap or Nima interviews, worthy as they are. A couple of written articles, including Simplicius's, will inform me far more thoroughly and incomparably faster. And let me reflect, rather than just listen.
Utube censors more people than the CCP. Why on earth would you ever support them?
Comforting news and conclusions! I am most pleased that you, Simplicius, aknowledge the fact that the War also is stressful for Russia as a society. The Window of Opportunity is closing as we near the third year of war. You cant have that amount of money spending and inflation without consequences. The opposite is also true. West is depleted and Ukraine desperate. So are we at the end of the War?
No. I dont think so because no one has outspoken on either side what a Victory would look like. I mean a realistic victory with all variables taken into account. In the West they only say that Russia must not win and a victory for Russia would be a disaster. But none of them are explained in detail. Could be the good old "ambiguiety" of their inner thoughts. Russia has prematurely declared what they see as a Victory. And it is likewise unrealistic. In the future ”historians” may very well describe the Ukrainian War 2022-2025 as the precursor to the WW3 that nearly wiped out the entire world in 2033. Unless responsible people now starts to define what a peace should look like and how West can swallow the defeat and reorganize their society, not for another War, but to a future in co-existence.
Russias chance is to show the World that they are strong and that ANY provocation will be met in a frightening way. They must change the Perception of reality, that has detoriated and transformed to fantasy, in the West. They need to formulate a ”way out” for western leaders.
That US is holding back the long-range missiles for use inside Russia is only temporary. We can expect the Kursk NPP cooling towers be attacked very soon. The fall of Pokrovsk would mean nothing more than Ukraine shortening their lines and giving up some territory. Ukraine is for sure on the brink of total destruction, but so was Germany in january 1945. Unless we see a sudden eruption of morale breakdown inside AFU this meaningless War will continue. And is it not astounding that Russia has 12:1 in artillery and can throw 4000 bombs/month but merely moves 500 meter/day?
I am not critical of the Russians way of warfare. I am perplexed what is hindering them from rolling over the AFU.
The slow roll is frustrating, but me thinks the RF is sending to Ukraine 1 widget for every 3 it holds back in the event of a war with NATO. Simplicus did a piece about the size of the military with respect to domestic labor needs and war production. The numbers in Ukraine are enough to do the job, albeit slowly, but the more important need right now is to 'stock up.' Produce produce produce!
Yes, could very well be that NATO is so stupid that they start to arm themselves for the
”next” war. The American perpetual war moved to Europe and propably they hope it to stay that way. What is good for MIC is good for the Elite. Russia has enough deep-throats in the Cabinets - so they know what to do.
What I find troubling in that context is that Blinken took the time, ostensibly on the way to Kiev, to stop over in Poland and hold talks with key politicos there. It looks like Poland is being groomed to step into the breach once Ukraine collapses.
Could be. Or he told Sikorski to stop talking with Vovan&Lexus revealing deep Nato plans. Sikorski said Poland will not move into UKraine to help….
"I am perplexed what is hindering them from rolling over the AFU."
Let me try to unvex the perplexed on this one count. I believe that one reason Russia is deliberately going it slow to avoid raising the panic and fury levels in the partly-mad-already West to levels so high that they will overcome their hesitation and actually enter the war. If Russia were to triumph too fast and too decisively, the pressure in the Western capitals, but especially the US, will reach boiling point. Possibly enough to get over the pentagon's objections (stranhgely enough, the last sane voice in the West, even if behind the scenes) and actually go all unhinged.
IOW, Russia has likely assessed the levels of anti-Russia hysteria and fear of the Empire being shown to be far less strong than it claims, and figured that limiting the progress on the battlefield to some 100's of m's or a few km per day or week will be just right to both move the front lines and avoid Western panic.
So far, this worked, more or less, even as the west keeps crossing lines, but at an ever increasing cost to itself.
Second reason is simpler still: Russia is keen to keep casualties as low as possible. That means not taking undue risks such as large arrow attacks.
One more reason I think has to do with China, india and other Global South countries. Russia does not wish to look like a merciless aggressor and is therefore fighting with at least one eye looking over its shoulder to ensure China has its back (and others, like india, do not get cold feet too soon).
Other, more tactical reasons were as given by Simplicius himself.
In any case, what we have here is a game of chicken. Russia advances slowly and meticulously, degrading ukraine's military and Western equipment maximally, while giving indications it is perfectly willing to keep it going at this rate (at least till Winter). The collective west in the meantime is impoverishing itself through their stupid sanctions, while turning the global south against their machinations. yet it's got those increasingly shrill voices within calling for escalation. Obviously we got internal Deep State factions that are at loggerheads, but it's hard to know which one will come on top.
based on all we see, and as said in this article, I believe Russia has resilience to spare and can go on for quite a bit longer. That while waiting for something in the west to give. Possibly the populations within will have had enough at some point?
You show deep insight. I agree in that Russia is acting like a therapist with a psychopath in the room. Only psychopaths do blow Nordstream, arrange terror in Moscow shopping centers and try to blow the Crimean bridge. On the other hand, if the Therapist show fear or act in an overtly aggressive way the Patient will snap.
And I also noted that Pentagram-guys are those opposing long-range strike into Russia fearing attacks on US assets. I share the opinion on China&India relations. What I fear is the Russian people losing patience. It is their sons ending up in coffins and the economy is inflated by the War and the longer it takes the more backlash they will suffer. So Putin&Co must have a plan for the years after the inevitably end of War.
European citizens are to dumb&cheepish to understand that their economy is dwindling and capsizing, that their social security will perish and all further spending will be on arms. They can vote, they can oppose but nothing changes.
You've hit the nail on the head.
"Second reason is simpler still: Russia is keen to keep casualties as low as possible. That means not taking undue risks such as large arrow attacks.
One more reason I think has to do with China, India and other Global South countries. Russia does not wish to look like a merciless aggressor and is therefore fighting with at least one eye looking over its shoulder to ensure China has its back (and others, like India, do not get cold feet too soon)"
We should all remember, for now, Russia is conducting a Special Military Operation not fighting war.
No more wars until BRICS is finally up and running.
Well put.
That's a very insightful analysis, but there is yet another reason: Time is on Russia's side as the West is slowly but inevitably collapsing economically. Russians just have to wait for the frog to be boiled---as economic ruin progresses, the West will be more and more occupied with unsolvable internal problems, while at the same time less and less able to support military effort. Let's just hope this collapse progresses surreptitiously enough so that they do not at some point panic and press the nuclear suicide button.
Also, Russia has no alternative. They cannot and will not permit NATO to stay in Ukraine. No matter how long it takes or what it costs. The people of the West are not remotely prepared to bear a similar cost.
No one is asking them. The "people" of the West are a herd, stupefied with omnipresent propaganda and various addictions, and they will bear whatever cost their masters impose on them.
Well, yes. I hear you. To the extent our masters can impose Endless War on us, they will.
However, I do not believe the American people will accept the annihilation of American boys on European, Asian or Middle Eastern battlefields ... at least not on the terms proposed by the Deep State to date.
The Ukrainians are delivering a steady supply of nato equipment to be destroyed, why would Russia be in a hurry to end that? Most of the EU is nearly demilitarized, and stocks in the US are getting low. Your need of instant gratification is tiresome.
The destruction goes both way if you have noticed.
I love your articles. Every time I see a simplicius notification in my email it feels like Xmas!!
Nice bow to Ansarallah. The impact is psychological--and devastating given the psychology of the Israelis. I find the fear factor fascinating. Some societies seem to be shot through and through with fear. They simply can't handle the thought of death, harm or physical risk. They crap their pants over everything. They panic, they hide, they run around in circles, they demand this and that. Other societies seem congenitally unshakable: the Yemenis, the Palestinians, the Afghans, the Vietnamese, the Russians. These people just keep coming. (Aside: I can't help but think that one of the reasons why the Ukraine war is such a bloody shit-show is because it's actually Russians fighting other Russians) On the other hand in conjunction with ONE missile hitting Tel Aviv, I see lines of traffic stopped and people hiding in ditches by the road. You'd think they were in Dresden. At some point shit is going to get very, very real for the Israelis. Gee, I wonder who's gonna win?
Israel's demographics no doubt feature a high percentage of Trauma Population individuals, hailing from Holocaust survivors & their offspring, so the degree of civic fear evinced is correspondingly high.
Interestingly, the comments Budanov makes about Russian citizens feeling terrorized on account of drone strikes near Moscow--or the comments Zelensky makes about forcing an end to the war because of a growing fear or dread among the Russian populace--might especially capture more appropriately the tenor of what is making the population of Israel reel 11 months into this conflict.
Moreover, Israel is riven w/ deep division: Russia is not
"Israel's demographics no doubt feature a high percentage of Trauma Population individuals, hailing from Holocaust propaganda survivors & their offspring, so the degree of civic fear evinced is correspondingly high."
There. Fixed that for ya, Cheeto.
A national myth is a mixture of reality and fiction, and operates in a specific social and historical setting, both as an inspiring narrative or anecdote about a nation's past & a rallying point for its future.
For Israel, everything that happened on 7 October, and has happened since, shattered the security which its national myth offered, including its raison d'etre as a state: to be a refuge & safe haven for persecuted Jews.
Fear & anxieties about whether Israel has a right to exist, and by extension Israelis, have permeated the culture from genesis [ pun intended .] Fear & anxiety about extermination are hard-baked into the national myth.
Russia does not have that.
Great comment - Russia does not have that insecurity- very few countries do not have that, and they are those which are now allied with RF against those that are recent settler insecure and self doubting culture free societies
The RF calls these countries or societies 'civilisational'
you forget that they think they are "god's chosen" and the rest are just goyim to serve them....
A national myth is a mixture of reality & fiction, no different of course w/ Israel, which needed urgently to construct its own national myth in 1947 & keep it fortified w/ enabling besties ever since.
Doesn't matter if the national myth, some might call it propaganda, is true--only that Western partners buy in & magnify it, which they have loyally & "unwaveringly" done since 1947
And why is there that unwavering support for a genocidal illegal state ?
What I "forget" is immaterial.
If Israelis think they are God's chosen, then this is part of their national myth.
Do Israel's Western partners & enablers think this?
Whether they do or do not, they nonetheless back Israel "unwaveringly."
The safe haven was always a marketing ploy, just as the gate around the condo complex is.
Victor, perfect reply. And funny on top of that!
The same is true of all settler societies: is true of the US today, these societies appear to reproduce their traumas and impose them on others
So the orginal trauma comes to dominate very long term, infects other societies, and so grow and grow
What solution can there be to this problem, in your opinion
Bang on, well stated and so important to understand the modern world. To paraphrase Jung, trauma that is not moved through (“processed”) will remain in the unconscious and play out in behavior repeatedly, i.e., what Jung conceptualized as Shadow material. Bringing that unconscious material to awareness and transforming it is the only solution. As an aside, this is the problem with “Wokeness”….it appears as a step towards awareness (thus the name), but it is better understood as weaponized trauma. Keeps the victim/perpetrator dynamic playing out. Israel is a fine example of this.
"trauma that is not moved through (“processed”) will remain in the unconscious and play out in behavior repeatedly"
This is the essence of "karma", something very well studied in the philosophical/religion traditions of the East.
And not only works internally but also externally, attracting outside situations in accordance with the internal state of affairs.
Yep
Diaspora communities provide a cheerleading mouthpiece for the Trauma Population, both within the country of origin & also abroad. Diaspora communities are not, however, still on the active front-line, so to speak, as those who remain in-country--so they are at liberty to rally hardest in regard to the victimization, the original trauma of the Trauma Population.
Note: the *trauma* need not be factual or true: *they* believe it--and if their Western partners cosign the check, well they can take it to the bank.
The west are not partners but forced colonies of the Jew. Look how blm protesters were knelt to by cops compared to the attacks on Protesters for Palestinians who want the Jews to stop their genocide. The vast majority does not support the Jew but the political class are just shabos goy. Democracy = Jew control.
Explain why the west is Jew controlled.
All these nice studies about "generational trauma" should be applied when calculating the reparations to Palestinians, who for generations (since 1937) have been suffering from jewish terrorism. At the same time when zionists were looting Palestinian villages and mass murdering Palestinians of all ages, the American jews came together to cook a very profitable "shoah-business" schema. Nahum Goldmann (a founder of the World Jewish Congress and a friend of the "jewish fascist" Jabotinsky) was in charge of the cooking. One of their most helpful collaborator was a Soviet jews Ilya Ehrenburg who provided the profiteers with the most outlandish slanderous lies about "shrunken heads and soap." The fraudulent opus of Elie Wiesel and the amazing "diaries" written with a ballpoint pen (first sold in 1954) by Otto Frank complete the picture.
Spot on.
Deep down these wars are murderous, thieving colonisers versus normal people
What was the trama ?
"The Holocaust Hoax, one of the greatest lies of all time," since the 19th century: https://www.adl.org/sites/default/files/images/2023-04/Reddit-Holocaust-Hoax-HD-blurred-resized.jpg
They can't live without profiteering and parasitizing
Or it's just the old understanding that bullies are generally cowards.
Israelis are easily terrified. One reason for this society-wide neurosis is a deep, unacknowledged sense of insecurity about their being on that land. One they captured running rough shod overr the natives.
In my book, Israel is, effectively, a photoshopped country. Made of bits and pieces that never fit together.
I have a longer piece about this - coming up soon.
Maybe it's the realization that they deserve everything that has ever happened to them.
This society-wide neurosis is the reason too that persuading other nations to acknowledge "Israel's right to exist" has been an ongoing never quite settled paradigm.
Recall: Saudi Arabia was on the verge of doing just that prior to 7 October.
Israel juts its chin & demands that others agree that it has "a right to exist"--but the very bellicosity barely disguises the underlying insecurities of a state being installed on land that is not *theirs*, contrary to what the song "Exodus" bamboozles a willing audience to believe while zoning out to a stage play production of "Fiddler on the Roof"
This is not a Broadway show & this is not Tevia w/ his violin
If you shop lifted something, and the security guard watched you, and came to you to demand that item back from your pocket or he will call the police? 99% of thieves will give it back to the security guard. The point here is guilt? Now, if you didn't steal anything, you will not fear the guard calling the police.
Most Israelis knows that they stole the land, and they are happy to leave it and go back to New York or Poland.
the "Holocaust" is fake. the jew is just an inbread bronze age tribe who used their sin merchant skills to infest the world. need an exterminator for real now...
Show of hands.
Who here thinks the Holocaust is fake?
And by fake I mean believes that it never happened.
Personally I am 100% convinced that it's real.
More importantly who cares about it any longer, even Israel just uses it as a tool to further their agenda by guilt.
I'm tired of WW2 references (E.g. Hitler/Nazis), it's gotten tiresome as well.
The incipient WWII references reveal an entire collective West which has not been able to move beyond that mid-20th Century conflict. In that Israel was formed as a result of the conflict keeps Israel as a state within the radius of everything the West can't seem to *grow beyond* regarding what happened *back then*.
When *they* talk about the war in Ukraine, they are not talking about OTAN's proxy war w/ Russia--they're talking about the unsettled elements of WWII: they are projecting onto it this 21st Century conflict. It's a Repetition Compulsion: ghosts must do again what gives them pain [ and I don't mean the ghosts of Kiev any more than I mean Chicken Kiev. ]
Russia grew up, and in that since levelled up--but the West has been unable to do so, chiefly because honesty DNA is lacking in the West & self-awareness is nil
In the West defense, the revenge sought by the tribe for WW2 has held it back, but not by its own doing, by those that got exactly what the deserved and are still angry things didn't go their way.
They kept the US in a infantile state, while draining it financially and spiritually.
I guess "an eye for an eye" has eternal shelf life.
By your Jew masters? Explain exactly what the ‘holocaust’ was.
6000000 Jews gassed behind a wooden door then incinerated to absolutely nothing such that no evidence whatsoever remains? That there are no documents whatsoever ordering such ?
lol. You believe this ghetto Jew fairy tale?
What about Irene zizblatt who swallowed then pooped out then found and swallowed a diamond multiple times. The Jew is greedy but really.
Also that the Germans were able to magically erase her ‘number tatoo’ such that no scars exist?
Really. This is just ghetto kike lies to try and gain symphony.
Why are ther western countries that make it illegal to even question this nonsense.
You are either a Jew or idiotic tv race.
No evidence remains? That is absolutely not true.
Lie some more, it's SO convincing!
lol. Ok Jew. Explain the evidence. Explain how it occurred. I’m waiting.
Still waiting
There are no evidence of jewish "holocaust." There are plenty of evidence of Palestinian Holocaust run by fascist jews in Israel with the help of their brethren in diaspora.
If you want to see a real genocide just look at what the Jew is doing in occupied Palestine. The Jew holidays all celebrate genocides of opposing tribes.
Dhdh that's because they're colonizers not because they're Jews.
Were the imperial Spaniards Jews? Were the Boers?, Were the Pilgrim fathers? You're just obsessed.
That’s idiotic to compare the Jew who stole land from a formed civilization to building a civilization in savage lands where there was nothing but fauna sub human savages
You are proving your malice. Colonizers "always" commit genocide. Some numbers to stack up against a purported 6 million. African Congo 1890s until 1912 I think is when it ended: 12 million people murdered. Many had their hands chopped off, to terrorize the rest into working harder for King Leopold. Even the Europeans were disgusted by this genocide, but they never did anything to stop it.
In French Cameroons, the French murdered 20 million people. That goes without comment in Europe and without talk of reparations in France. M'balabala Dieudonne, whose father is from Cameroons has had his career savaged because he talks about Palestine and compares it to the Cameroon genocide. Staying in Africa, the Germans did the Herero and Namaqua Genocide totalling about 110, 000, 1905-07. In the 1930's the Italians killed over 1 million people in Libya. In 1943, the British killed 3 to 4 million in the Bengal holodomor. Before that, the Brits killed 250,000 Greeks (yes, while people) in 1941-42 to reduce the food available to the Germans. Interestingly, many Turks tried to come to the aid of the Greeks. Some Turks got food through the UK's Royal Navy blockade, but others lost their lives as the RN sunk Turkish ships. And what are we to call the slaughter of 27 to 29 million citizens of the USSR ? Genocde.
As for the 6 million, I have never seen anyone doing the sums which add up to the neighborhood of 6 million. 2 or 3 million, yes - and that's bad, very bad - but only crazed racist Jewish supremacists and their deceived goyim untermensch push the 6 million figure. I'm damn glad to be in America because people in Europe go to jail for saying what I just wrote. The French dissident, Alain Soral, is in a Swiss prison for saying that Zionism is a form of racism. Freedom of speech. Use it or lose it.
The Holocaust is very real. I saw Auschwitz, and those were not "showers". And Auschwitz has been preserved by the Soviet Bloc, who had no reason to alter it to make it different than it was. Also, I heard many *first-hand* testimonials, some from my own family who lived through WWII. These were not fake, either.
But, you know what? The Holocaust was not just about, and not even primarily, about the Jews. More Slavs---Poles and Russians, mostly---were persecuted and exterminated, than the Jews. Even if you believe in the inflated number of 6 million, the gassed and shot Slavs still vastly outnumber that. And the number of Gypsies killed in these camps is at least a match for the Jews, as well.
So yes, the Holocaust existed---but the Jews do not own it. Russia has as good, or better claim on being the victim, and so do many other groups inconvenient to the German übermenschen.
Enjoy: "The Holocaust Hoax, one of the greatest lies of all time"
https://www.adl.org/sites/default/files/images/2023-04/Reddit-Holocaust-Hoax-HD-blurred-resized.jpg
"NY rabbi: ‘Not even 1 million’ Jews killed in Holocaust:" https://www.timesofisrael.com/ny-rabbi-not-even-1-million-jews-killed-in-holocaust/
Video removed. Do you know, why?
I have no way to verify the actual numbers; it could be 1 million Jews as you say instead of 6, I just don't know. But mass extermination did take place, and there were transports going to Auschwitz, and Treblinka, and Gross Rosen, etc., also of Jews from ghettos, among others.
And these were not labor camps---some prisoners were taken out to labor on secret projects like the underground factories in Silesia, and these did backbreaking work, and were fed better, but were all shot at the end to maintain the secrets. But the majority of inmates were starved or gassed or shot or torn apart by SS dogs in the concentration camps. Again, I have it first hand, from witnesses who had no reason to lie---my grandpa, among others, who was in at the liberation of what was left of Auschwitz, and spoke with the few survivors. Most of whom were Russian and Polish, but there were lots of Jews and Gypsies exterminated in these camps as well.
And there was extermination going on outside the KZLs as well, in plain sight, entire villages shot or herded into a barn and burned, children and all, mostly by the SS but also by Ukrainian auxiliaries. And this was going on in plain sight, and again I spoke with people who saw this first hand, and with families of survivors. Most of these villages were Polish or Russian, but there were Jewish schtetls exterminated, too.
I don't give a f*ck what some rabbi says; one rabbi says yes, another rabbi says no, and yet they somehow both are lying. ;-) What I do know, is that it was mostly the relatively poor Jews that got the short end of the stick; the truly rich ones had a much better survival rate.
"Most of these villages were Polish or Russian, but there were Jewish schtetls exterminated, too."
But only jews made a profitable business on "shoah" while demanding more and more "reparations" for a "generational trauma" and destroying any honest historian/engineer, whose research does not complain with the "shoah" memes. And don't forget that the holobiz extraction schema was imposed on the collective west at the same time when the jewish fascists have been looting and genociding the Palestinian population (since 1937).
Before the jewish terrorists' actions in Palestine, there were the jewish terrorists' actions in Russia leading to the jewish Bolshevik Revolution, which resulted in the deaths of the millions of the innocent of all ages. The first Soviet government was 85% jewish. The first secret police organs (and the first concentration camps) were organized and run by jews like Naftali Frenkel, Yagoda (Ieguda), Zalkind (aka Zemlyachka), Berman, Kaganovich, itsikovich (aka Goloschyokin), and the likes. The jewish sadists targeted Christian clergy, prominent military men, the prosperous and knowledgeable peasantry, and nobility.
The ongoing real holocaust in Gaza should give everyone an idea of what had happened in Russia when the jewish revolutionaries (financed by the jewish bankers like Warburg and Schiff) unleashed their hatred and genocidal zeal upon all ethnic groups in the former Russian Empire. That was a monumental Crime against Humanity.
"entire villages shot or herded into a barn and burned, children and all, mostly by the SS but also by Ukrainian auxiliaries."
Nuland-Kagan run the illegal putsch in Kiev in 2014 in collaboration with the self-proclaimed Ukrainian Nazis (banderites). All jewish members in US congress have been supporting the weaponization of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis.
Russia's primary risks are high interest rates on deficits that comes with accelerated war spending, and BRICS nations failing to come through because they are owned. Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China and India are all vulnerable to sanctions and are economically dependent on exports to the US (where the money is) and are acting strange.
Hope Russia provides Ansarallah and iran with an endless supply and targeting info on that illegal jew state.
"Hatem-2"
Coolest missile name goes to the Houthis. Those dudes are just cool period. Packing knife on chest. Poorest nation in world take on superpower and stop intl shipping, no problem
Shot down so many Reaper drones they leave Russia alone now ....and made Supercarrier skedaddle back home.
The name of the group is not 'the Houthis', that is the ethnic description of the people
It is a certain part of this tribes's leadership which is actively engaged, manufacturing and sending missiles
yes their name is the Ansar Allah movement or the "Friends of Allah" in English. The leader's name however is al-Houthi because the Houthi tribe started the movement.
That's his name, and the tribe's name - but it is not the name of the political military organisation that is organising the resistance
The tribe is not 'as one', besides it has many aspects which have nothing to do with AA, indeed clans and factions which are not exactly opposed but which have their own opinions
To reduce a political military organisation to it's 'identity' as a tribe not only nonsense, it is US speak intended to trivialise and falsely to define a leadership
and a people as collectively inseperable and responsible
In other words .....propaganda
The US gvmt would wish that the US people was so collectively supportive of US gvmt interventions, ha!
Yemenis are fine with being called Houthis - at least the part of Yemen that is under the government of the Houthis
Nobody said that the Houthi tribe is not called the Houthi tribe
This particular leadership of is not the Houthi tribe
It is the Ansar Allah
but they're houthis...haha
I have to admit, I am having a bit of trouble trying to figure out what your point is as you seem extremely committed to disagreement here. These people are commonly and widely known in most all circles on all sides and from most all perspectives as "the Houthis" or "Ansar Allah" or "Yemenis".
What do you call them?
There is a distinction between the Houthis tribe, and this particular leadership which is called Ansar Allah
To confuse fuse or to confound the two is foolish
And to hijack a discussion with repeated, long-winded "correction" of "politically incorrect" detail is often attention-seeking, if not outright trolling.
You made your point with you 1st "correction". Why such a need to br affirmed as "correct?"Are you trolling, Mr White? Or are you attention seeking?
G'day Sam, are you sure Ansor/Ansar is friend. Ansor is an Indonesian youth military/militia wing of Nadhlatul Ulama the largest Islamic organisation in the world.
https://religionunplugged.com/news/2020/12/21/islamic-militias-are-protecting-churches-in-indonesia
They were (and still are by many) called the Houthis due to the original leader's name al-Houthi. But since they have renamed themselves as the Ansar Allah movement.
The Houthi movement (/ˈhuːθi/; Arabic: الحوثيون al-Ḥūthiyūn [al.ħuː.θi.juːn]), officially known as Ansar Allah[f] (أنصار الله ʾAnṣār Allāh, lit. 'Supporters of God'), is a Shia Islamist political and military organization that emerged from Yemen in the 1990s. It is predominantly made up of Zaidi Shias, with their namesake leadership being drawn largely from the Houthi tribe.[91]
Yes - AA is the name of a specific organisation, politivcal and military, dedicated to taking power over the whole of Yemen, largely accepted by the majority of the Houthi clans, but who's aims and ambitions far surpass the tribal, and which now extend to influencing politics and the military balance of power in West Asia
Hence the Red Sea attacks, the Eilat port shutdown the direct attacks on Israel, the opening of an office in Iraq
To confuse or confound the two is at best ignorance at worst the dumbest of racisms - both of which have much contributed to US defeat at the hands of the AA
X channel War Watch @warwatchs
ID's the missile as Ghadr-110 (F variant) and states that part of its ability to defeat AD systems stems from release of submunitions just following boost phase as WW calls it:
"➡️ SM-3 Limitations: The RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) ship-based surface-to-air missile is one of the few systems capable of intercepting missiles at such high altitudes, but the Ghadr’s early submunition release was designed to outsmart it. SM-3 is optimized for hitting single, intact warheads, not a cloud of smaller submunitions scattered over a wide area.
➡️ Arrow 2 and 3 Response: The Arrow-3 likely fired at the empty booster, mistaking it for the main threat. Meanwhile, Arrow-2 may have targeted the submunitions, but dealing with so many dispersed warheads is a challenge even for advanced systems.
➡️ Iron Dome's Role: The Iron Dome probably tried to intercept the submunitions, but its focus is on stopping single, direct threats. The dispersed nature of the submunitions, spread across a wide area, made it nearly impossible for Iron Dome to handle."
Right or not? It does seem consistent with impacts over a considerable area yet the main target being struck nearly precisely. An alternative to the initial Israeli claim that the incoming missile 'exploded' or the later iteration that it broke up in flight.
https://x.com/WarWatchs/status/1835320535191851419
Thanks, that neatly explains some conflicting reports. And it makes sense.
I'm a fan of the North Korean "Nodong" missile.
Russian citizens appear to take in stride the efforts of Budanov & his ilk to divide civil society & to destabilize the populace, whether by arranging elaborate parlor tricks like the InKursion to Nowhere or by committing terrorist attacks on synagogues & churches in the Caucasus as a means of fomenting religious tensions: they’ve seen these stunts before & they are not fooled.
It would be interesting to study @ what point in a war of a certain duration—approaching 3 years, for instance, like this one—that the propaganda saturation loses steam & viability. Failing to vary the capers & antics--and the narratives about the capers & antics--allows a numbing predictability to set in, every bit as lethal for a feets-don't-fail-me-now combatant like Ukraine as failing to update LOC strategy & tactics.
>And it’s true that Russia will likely face growing recruitment pressures given the fact that Russia has verifiably been increasing signing bonuses by unprecedented levels recently. There can really be no other reason for such high recruitment bonuses other than to keep the numbers flowing steadily as before, which means they must have drooped.
Why would I sign up for the meat grinder if I know that my government is not doing everything it could to win the war quickly and without exposing me to unnecessary risk? Because that is precisely the situation in which the Russian army finds itself in -- the Kremlin has been primarily playing the game of serving the Russian oligarchs' interests rather than seriously trying to win -- this all could have been over two years ago if the appropriate measure had been taken, with 20K Russian casualties max, rather than the current 100K dead and who knows how many permanently disabled, and counting, with no end in sight. It can still be ended in a few weeks if the appropriate measures are taken now, but they are not being taken, so this will continue for who knows how much longer, and will still not bring victory in the end, another treasonous deal will be made, and there will be an even worse war further down the line.
>It seems everyone is truly buying into all the peace talk hype, but there is no imaginable reason for Russia to stop at a time they have finally gotten Ukraine on the ropes and primed for the KO blow.
There is -- Russian oligarchs desperately want to be part of the West again, and they are clearly still sufficiently powerful to veto the type of prosecution of the war that would result in real victory, as taking the kind of measures that will end the war quickly and in Russia's favor means an irrecoverable break with the West for the next several generations. They likely also have other reasons -- for example, who will pay for rebuilding all of Ukraine if Moscow was to take over the whole thing, which is the only way out of this mess that is some kind of a real victory for Russia? It will have to be Russia, and that is bad for them, because they will be forced to pitch in by the Kremlin. That sort of thing.
So yeah, Minsk-3 is very much on the table. Do you see a Russian army, two-million, three-million strong being prepared to quickly sweep to the Polish border, then permanently occupy and clean up the place down to the last Banderites? I very much don't. The Kursk fiasco was very telling -- we were waiting for a Russian Sumy offensive, in the end it turned out that NATO+AFU waltzed in without resistance and units had to be desperately scrambled from the deep rear and other parts of the front to stop them before they take truly important objects. Which meant that there was no Russian army whatsoever in Kursk preparing for a Sumy offensive...
I'm pretty sure Putin brought the oligarchs to heel. They aren't calling the shots any more.
Putin is playing it slow because he doesn't want to fall into the same hubristic trap that Hitler did, who was in a similar situation with Poland then as Putin is in now with Ukraine.
The 900,000 troop invasion Putin should have done day 1 and wrap this up in two weeks was not done so I can't go back to that mistake or any others like failure to mobilize....but putin is not in it to win it IMO
But let's focus on oligarchs you claim he brought to heel. because Russia has 6 ways to Sunday to cripple west right now without a shot fired but doesnt for oligarchs sake.
Blow bridges on Dniper once and for all cutting Ukraine in half but no that's where oligarchs ship their valuable minerals to the west.
US has 50 nuclear power plants which all get uranium fuel from Russia....
US Diesel fuel needs Russian heavy crude to make and its still shipping
50% of EUs gas still coming from Russia
Well you get the idea. Putin and "them" like the money more than ending this war.
You have said everything short of "The sky is falling! The sky is falling!". Actually, perhaps that is precisely what you are saying. And it deserves the same ridicule as Chicken Little received.
You still fail to see how this war has defeated the Western alliance and brought it to the edge of economic and military disaster, a feat not possible had they finished this in a matter of days as you suggest.
Undoubtedly has this long War brought a severe attrition to the West, in any case more than for Russia. But it is history in hindsight. Russia never planned for a ever escalating war going on for years. GM is right. The russian soldiers will start to wonder wether this war will ever end. So will the Russian people.
The Russian people certainly want this war to end, but they want it to end with the right results and generally are quite supportive of the Kremlin's strategy. They know this is not a war against Ukraine, but against NATO and they know that the road to ultimate victory is long and will see NATO disarmed and economically crippled.
Yes, for now. But attrition goes both ways.
Actually, it doesn't. The power with the greatest ability to withstand losses is the power that wins in a war of attrition. That is not to say Russia will not suffer many losses (I agree it already has), but the end is inevitable - Russia wins, Ukraine loses and NATO is crippled.
Agree. But we havent seen it all yet. Britain called itself a Victor after WW2. They fell into oblivion in the 50s and 60s.
US&EU has 1 billion people against Russias 140 millions. Taxes can be imposed, mandatory military service imposed, industries boosted. Of course all this Climatehoax, feminising the society and Hbtq-ing the entire population must end before West will be a real threat to Russia. And before that we could see a crash of the whole western world as we knew it before.
Actually Russian leaders are on record as saying they are prepared for 10 years of war.
Also Russia has a long history of being willing to fight to the last drop of peasant blood. Napoleon captured Moscow, and the Russians just shrugged, burned all the nearby farms and waited for the frogs to starve.
They all send the peasants to fight their wars.
At least Russia takes care of its vets, & under Putin's new guidelines or rules, vets will be preferred candidates for plum jobs.
"Russian oligarchs desperately want to be part of the west again'.
I stopped reading this rubbish after that.
The BBC at the behest of the British and US governments (much of it appears to come directly from Washington these days) has mined everywhere for evidence of disaffected oligarchs and/or, along with western intelligence, tried to turn them, and has found quite the reverse. It has been one of the great failures of the western narrative war, now acknowledged. So you may as well go back to your knitting with this one. GM.
On a more serious note, if Russian oligarchs want to be anywhere other than Mother Russia, it is where the money is going to be going forward. And that is not going to be in the sun setting western empire. You need to do some economic catch-up, GM.
"I stopped reading this rubbish after that."
Always appreciative of an honest opinion... ;-)
Is it really so?
I think we can agree that Putin "tamed" the oligarchs. He exiled or sent to prison the irreductible ones (e.g. Khodorkovski) and ordered the remaining ones to stay out of PUBLIC politics.
But that doesn't mean that the oligarchs doesn't have any political power inside Russia, or that they don't have any economic interests outside Russia.
IMO opinion, the argument that Western govs. have not managed to "turn over" any Russian oligarchs is weak: If an oligarch would go over to the other side and be public about it, that would be high treason and would get all his Russian assets confiscated (as happened to Khodorkovski) and it would become a public leper, as no one inside Russia would risk to be be recognized as being associated to him. In fact, the best use for a traitor oligarch inside Russia would to pose as a "moderate patriot", with a focus on precisely not gravely harming the Russian economy.
I think that there is a kernel of truth in GM's words in the sense that most oligarchs & very wealthy individuals not only in Russia but across the whole world including Global South & BRICS do not want to excessively "shake things up" with the US & UK based global financial system. This is because ALL of them use the City of London's offshore tax havens to hide their ill gotten gains (or even their rightly gotten money that they don't want to get taxed & accounted for). So, whether you are a Russian Oligarch, Chinese billionaire, Spanish football star or corrupt European satrap, you definitely do not want to see the Western financial system collapse or see the US$ (the usual currency of these offshore accounts) hyperinflate.
OTOH, an unacknowledged driver of the present Russian economic boom is precisely that all Western corporations (& Russian oligarchs) that had repatriated their profits out of Russia and into the Western financial system are out of the play and now all profits stay inside Russia and are reinvested locally. Funnily, this was not a Kremlin policy but the result of Western sanctions....
This is a highly interesting documentary on the topic of the City of London's spider web of offshore jurisdictions enabling worldwide corruption, tax evasion & money laundering:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYfnkLurLA8&t=583s
>Funnily, this was not a Kremlin policy but the result of Western sanctions....
Yeah, and now the Kremlin wants the sanctions lifted.
So which one is it -- are the sanctions good for the Russian economy, as many are telling us, or bad?
For the record, I think they are good. But what does that tell us about the Kremlin wanting them lifted? And about the Kremlin's policies in the previous three decades? If sanctions are good now, then not being sanctioned previously and being integrated with the West was bad, right?
Astute comment!
I understand the fear of massive sanctions that the Kremlin had... in March 2022.
Now? As you point out, Russia is not hurting from the sanctions, it should not be at all in a hurry to ask for these being lifted. OTOH, after watching the results, sanctions should be a Russian weapon to leverage against the "West".
Sharp as ever GM!
We hear about 12:1 in artillery, 5:1 in men, thousands of FAB.s but no breaktrough. How come?
I think Russia is not strong enough and do not risk their assets in any way they can control. AFU, with the help from US/NATO has already inflicted so much damage and losses that they do not dare anything more than what they do for now.
Otherwise we should see strong offensives. I myself would see the center of logistic, Dniepropetrovsk surrounded/eliminated.
The reason for Russia not daring an offensive from Zaporizhzhia in the direction of Dnipropetrovsk is the difficulties with logistics. They also have fever men in that area, 55 000 according to Uki quotes, and is only defending the Surovikin line. Russian columns reaching the Dnieper would also be mindshattering for the AFU:s morale.
Why am I not surprised Little Mikey agrees with general Moron each and every time?
One thing we tend to forget is the size of the Ukraine Military. In 2022 it had 250,000 regulars plus 500,000 reservists. It also had over 100,000 militarised police and border gaurds. 100,000 men volunteered as soon as Russia attacked. Since then there have been multiple waves of conscription. Well over a million men have passed through the ranks over the last 2 1/2 years. This is a big force and takes time and effort to destroy and multiple operations. A single big arrow offensive is very western in thinking but was never part of Soviet doctrine because they realised that big armies cannot be destroyed in this way. My sense is that Stavka is being too slow now, but I do not have access to their information. However what is clear is that the UAF has been comprehensively attritted down to the levels where it is now becoming ineffective on the battlefield (ie unable to carry out missions successfully) and Russia appears to have achieved this with a fraction of the manpower losses incurred on the UAF, using firepower instead. However this trades time for men, and is an exchange that might work against them.
It's not about "one big operation", it is about doing the things that you should be doing to deprive the enemy of resources, that have not been done to this day for two and a half years now.
Also, the more territory Russian controls, the smaller the conscription pool of the AFU. Automatically. So it was vital to grab as much land as quickly as possible early on, and to then not do goodwill gestures.
There's a Napoleon quote: "Space we can recover, time never".
It looks like Putin's strategy is to wait and wait in a passive-agressive stance while doing the "slow grind" until there is somehow an external political shock (Trump win, EU crisis, who knows...) that collapses the Kiev gov.
I, humble keyboard general, think that he is wrong and that he underestimates the US Empire capacity to escalate and to support unending wars...
I appreciate your comments, btw.
Research Russian oligarchs....chosen ones like Zelensky, Nuland, Blinken...
Making anymore sense now GM
Omggoh; another armchair warrior. 🙄
It could have been "wrapped up in 2 weeks" the way American wars are "wrapped up" in 2 weeks. Leaving behind broken, but still highly armed countries that wreak havoc on their neighbors for decades.
Or maybe "wrapping it up in 2 weeks" could have given the neocons behind the Ukraine mess exactly what they want to this day: an excuse to go nuclear.
Or maybe it could have been "wrapped up in 2 weeks" & BRICS would be stillborn.
This is a multi-front war with the collective west. Kinetic in Ukraine. Economic, cultural, societal literally everywhere else.
All marbles are on the table.
Never mind 2 weeks, Trump will have it all done within 24 hours in a phone call - and this is while dodging bullets from US deep state 🤣
😂😂😂
There are many more political entities with “skin in the game” than Putin, and each would need at least one phone call.
As Karaganov said, nobody will sacrifice Boston for Poznan.
So yeah, two weeks.
You nuke the border crossings and stop weapons supplies, and dare NATO to enter directly under the threat that Finland, Sweden, Poland, Romania,, Germany etc. are next for strategic strikes that will end their existence if NATO does not back down, you finally shut down the grid (could have been done already on October 10th 2022, the first day of the missile strike campaign, if the Kremlin wanted to), you decapitate Ukrainian leadership, and yes, it will be over in a few weeks.
But it requires balls, and the resolution of the internal conflict inside Russia. As long as the treasonous faction in the elite holds as much power as it currently does, people will coninue dying.
P.S. Regarding the dreaded "nuclear" word, how many people died and how much physical destruction was there already? Remember that most of the people who died on the Ukrainian side are Russians too, and the cities destroyed in the course of the fighting are also Russian. How large an area has been made uninhabitable by mines and unexploded cluster submunitions and contaminated with depleted uranium? Now on official pre-war Russian territory too. The cumulative damage amounts to a dozen Hiroshima bombs already. It just didn't happen in one large bang, but why should that matter? And there is no end in sight.
As soon as you nuke the borders you've given the neocons the excuse they've been waiting for to nuke Russia. And 20-some years ago, the neocons changed US nuke doctrine from MAD to "decapitation strike " on Moscow.
Nukes in Ukraine would have been close enough. Same with the Nordics & Baltics.
Even if not, nuke Russia anywhere & Perimetr goes into effect.
Btw, Intel Slava Z posted a couple years ago that Perimetr had been put back on automatic. So even if nuke decapitation succeeds, we're all cooked.
The neocons will not nuke Rusisa just like that, because there will be a second strike.
What is happening right now -- gradually lowering the Russian guard by first sending conventional missiles into it, then swapping those with nukes -- is how you do it. And the Kremlin is playing along.
If the Kremlin was to wipe out the whole of NATO in Europe what will happen is that the US will tuck its tail between its legs and retreat to its own continent. There will be no strategic exchange, because then the US loses everything, not just the colonies in Europe.
Where the calculation breaks down is that the interests of elites do not coincide with the interests of the state they nominally reside in.
So it happens that when you are a rapacious predatory oligarchy that is aiming to take over the whole world, that also at least up to a point coincides with the interests of the country as a whole.
But if you are a rapacious predatory oligarchy that aims to strip mine its own country and then move elsewhere, that goes against those interests. And it can be exploited by the former kind.
The neocons have been clamoring for nuclear strikes since the start of the smo. The minute they successfully strike with nukes, all bets are off. There is nothing that says they won't strike US in response, instead of their next door neighbors & potential partners.
Russia is not "letting down its guard." It is driving UKR out of Kursk & beating the crap out of Sumy. It is attacking weakened spots all along the front. Every time Ukr tries to plug a hole, it opens a new one & Russia pushes through.
The 3 or so major transport hubs will soon be in cauldrons with fire control of exits. Once those last few hubs are taken, Ukr will have lost most if not all of its ability to resupply.
To end this year, it needs to happen before the October rains.
Truth be told, use of nukes can be avoided in one situation. Russia mobilizes, and attacks from Belarus and tries to take Lvov. And by "tries" I don't mean do whatever it is doing now, but actually attack along the entire front using many men and material. Control/levelling of Lvov will stop most weapons. To stop weapons fully, it would also need to finally land in Odessa. At this point, Ukraine landing in Crimea and getting a foothold seems more likely.
The moment for both of these was missed a long time ago.
Landing on Odessa could have been viable in the first days. The sinking of Moskva put an end to all such plans -- after that the Ukrainians had the anti-ship missiles plus ISR to stop any such attempts.
Going south from Brest along the border and taking Lvov was a viable idea up until some time early this year. Provided several hundred thousand men were allocated for it with all the gear.
Right now it's likely no longer viable because NATO is so deep in that they would enter directly to secure the territory themselves at the first sign a serious such operation was to begin.
So it's either slow grind from east to west for quite a long time, even with total mobilization and with proper strikes on the grid and logistics, or nukes on the border crossings and then let's see if NATO dares do anything in response.
Minsk 3? LOL General Moron, you have once again exceeded any previous statements of stupidity.
Utter nonsense
"There is -- Russian oligarchs desperately want to be part of the West again, and they are clearly still sufficiently powerful to veto the type of prosecution of the war that would result in real victory, as taking the kind of measures that will end the war quickly and in Russia's favor means an irrecoverable break with the West for the next several generations."
It's not just oligarchs.
Also don't forget that Putin essentially forced a surrender of Marioupol and Slavyansk in 2014 because it was affecting Akhmetov's profits.
Also, Putin is known for signing cuckold deals - see Minsk 1/2.
I have not forgotten.
In effect Mariupol was destroyed and tens of thousands died in order to protect Akhmetov's business interests.
Avdeevka was the same situation -- they didn't seriously bomb the coke plant for almost two years even after the SMO started in order to not destroy it. Guess who owned it. On the other side of the equation were some 15-20,000 civilians and soldiers from Donetsk who died from the shelling and in futile frontal assaults on the fortifications there.
This all happened already.
Why anyone in their right mind would think the Kremlin would never commit another act of treason given the extensive decades-long track record of doing precisely that, especially after there was already Istanbul AFTER THE SMO STARTED and likely another attemp behind the scenes THIS SUMMER, I don't understand.
Yes. The fact that they negotiated a cuckold deal in 2022 (surrender the South minus Crimea, help rebuild and talk negotiate with Zelensky vis-a-vis Donbass status) is cuckoldry of the highest order. I don't know why Simplicus thinks that Russia won't sign a deal just as it gets Ukraine on the ropes. If anything that is more consistent with Russia's MO than anything else. Indeed, it was already discussing not striking Ukrainian infrastucture, what? Who fights wars like this. If anything they should be taking a page out of the Israeli playbook.
Only way RUssia is going to Polish border is military coup. But of course thats impossible since Putin turned national guard into his own personal 350,000 man body guard. Putin will take almost any deal for peace and leave next guy to deal with a NATO armed Ukraine in 8-10 years to fight again.
Not going to the Polish border means total strategic defeat.
Because drones and missiles will be flying into Russia forever from whatever remains of Ukraine, destroying infrastructure, industry and military bases.
And then the even bigger war further down the line as you said.
So yeah, military coup in Russia is a better option at this point.
Karaganov is agreeing which mean that Putin considers all of this as well https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7059257
Simplicity’s, a quick question if you will: Is a land war in Europe (Eu/NATO) in the hegemonic interests of the Global American Empire? That is, will the GAE relative power increase with Europe looking like in did in 1947? American power came after two wars destroyed European competitive political centers and led US to gain manufacturing markets and dominate global currency, debt, etc. Would war on Europe once again improve the the GAE power structure?
This is a very good question, and one that no one so far has well answered
What is your opinion?
I believe that is precisely what the neocons are working towards - a European land war with Russia that will cripple both and remove potential geopolitical and economic competitors from the scene, and opening the way to China and world domination.
The apparent cordiality of Russian-Chinese relations is deceptive. The Chinese (like the Israelis) don't have 'friends' and have a long history of adversarial relations with Russia.
And for very sound reasons - which Putin is well aware of - and may well be applying the 'friends close, enemies closer' principle in their relations.
Short term, Russia needs trade and tech from China, China benefits from trade and help throwing off the rule of the US dollar. Longer term, a weakened Russia, Europe and US works to further China's goal of being the preeminent world power...
Likely it is too dangerous a game to play for the purpose of gaining market share.
A more likely outcome would be the war quickly going nuclear. And I doubt the Russian government really wants to waste hundreds of thousands of military casualties to try and occupy a bunch of European populations that don't want to be part of such a war in the first place.
Provoking a war in Europe would serve the purpose of suiciding the white populations of Europe, Russia, and America. Or the deaths of billions of useless eaters worldwide if it goes nuclear or biological. Which is likely the real goal of these unceasing efforts to provoke a war with Russia, China, and Iran.
I believe the Russians would strike quickly to eliminate British/French nuclear capability - they have the ability to do this. With the nuclear threat from Europe gone they could do as they wish with Europe without threat of a nuclear retaliation.
As for the US in this scenario, they would withdraw support from Europe and let the cards fall where they may, hoping that both Europe and Russia are eliminated as potential military and economic competitors.
Exacfly, this isn't "Risk!" or "Axis and Allies".
Hey feral kitten, "Exafly" what is that word mean? To much vodka.
Well, no deep strikes into Russia yet. I wonder if Putin sent a pictures of all the long range precision missiles and lancet drones he would be sending to Iran if Ukraine gets the approval.
Spiegel got the religions wrong. Putin was turning the Dharma Wheel, a moving prayer in the Vajrayana Buddhist tradition, most known from Tibet.
Rudolf Augstein rests uncomfortably now. Der Spiegel has come a long way from "Sagen, was ist."
Spiegel isn't interested in any facts other than those that support the preferred narrative.
Hey feral kitten, that is describing you perfectly. You are a good student of Zelansky Miauuu.
When I read Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” to the US, it reads like this:
1) Give us security guarantees that you will enter Ukraine and join the war
2) Give us weapons that can hit deep into Russia and let us use them.
3) When Russia retaliates, join the war because you gave us the guarantees.
4) Oh … and give us MORE MONEY!
Unless the crazies in the US (who actually want a direct war with Russia) prevail, this is a terrible plan and the US need to completely, unequivocally, and perpetually REJECT it outright.
Ironically it’s exactly the plan that Chamberlain followed when he gave security guarantees to Poland. Everyone in that case was tricked by those who actually wanted the war. Chamberlain was told Germany wouldn’t dare invade. Poland was belligerent and treated the German Danzig poorly instigating the invasion because they had that security guarantee. Germany believed that the U.K. would see reason but Churchill was bought and paid for so instead started bombing German civilians to escalate the war.
The result was WW2 and the complete collapse of the British Empire.
History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. Russia has the benefit of historical insight and its leaders are not driven by a radical ideology like Germany was but if it does come to this you can say bye bye to Europe and the US.
On points 1 - 4, what is the point of a proxy war if it ceases to be a war by proxy?
On Odessa, I see two positions advocated; it will become Russian by treaty and that NWO will never give it up. These seem incompatible to me and my sense is that Russia will have to take Odessa in a fait accompli manner when the timing is right - no matter how hard this may seem.
Churchill was bought and paid for by jews. that is the crux of the problem