SITREP 9/10/24: European Antinomy Squeezes Zelensky from Both Sides as Kursk Front Crumbles
There’s a lot of disparate but significant information today, so let’s start off with the biggest developments.
Firstly, the swell of information pointing to Zelensky’s desperate push to end the war continues via multiple European publications. Spanish EFE writes the following:
Kiev (EFE).- Aware of the lack of good prospects in the front, and at the risk of decay of the military help of some key allies, the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, is working on a roadmap unilateral aims to put an end to the war this fall, and we trust all the international pressure on Russia to make peace on terms acceptable to Kiev.
Interestingly, it mentions Zelensky grabbing parts of Kursk to thwart Russia’s plans to annex currently occupied Ukrainian territory, which could logically point to the Kursk operation being Zelensky’s last defiant charge against European partners, rather than Russia. Knowing that Europe was slowly inching toward forcing Ukraine to give up territories in order to effect an armistice, Zelensky may have tried to circumvent the move by preemptively grabbing some Kursk land to hold for ransom as insurance against this.
And how do we know Europe was moving toward this? Further confirmation comes by way of the next piece, Italy’s La Repubblica:
The gist is the following:
According to recent reports, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is working on a peace plan to bring Russia to the negotiating table. The plan allegedly involves Ukraine accepting territorial concessions, which could potentially lead to a ceasefire and a resolution to the ongoing conflict.
Scholz’s initiative comes as a response to the devastating electoral results in Turingia and Sassonia, and the looming threat of a potential defeat in the upcoming Brandenburg election. The Chancellor is seeking to reposition himself as a “peacemaker” and secure a lasting legacy.
Here’s a non-paywalled Ukrainian source on the same story.
Tass reports that the Kremlin has responded via Peskov to the proposal, but only insofar that they are willing to look at it:
"We know nothing more than news outlets reported. That some plan is in the works. Yet we are unaware what kind of details it may involve. We are not rejecting any plans in advance but it is necessary to understand what this is about," the Kremlin official explained.
According to this report, Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik outlines Zelensky’s final ‘peace plan’ as the following:
Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik believes Zelensky came up with a new plan to end the war, Zelensky calls it ''victory plan'' which he wants to present to Biden, Harris and Trump for approval this month.
1. Zelensky wants the US to allow long-range strikes into Russia with foreign missiles to destroy all military bases, airfields, ammunition and fuel depots within the European part of Russia.
2. The West (US/NATO) must protect Western Ukraine with Polish and Romanian air defense systems from Russian retaliation strikes so Ukraine could transfer own air defense systems closer to the battlefield.
3. The West must guarantee to be prepared to get more involved by sending ground troops to certain parts of Ukraine to free up Ukraine's manpower which could be sent to the front lines. Zelensky believes after this campaign Russia would be forced to retreat, at some point Putin's leadership would be destabilized and replaced, with the new leadership signing a peace deal.
Source: Politeka Online
If this is Zelensky's plan it would first have to be approved but there is also the assumption that at no point Putin retaliates against Ukraine or NATO as Ukraine is attacking Russian bases with NATO supplied long-range missiles. The victory plan is as realistic as Zelensky's previous 10-point peace formula according to which Russia should withdraw troops and pay reparations.
This is all pretty much what I outlined in the last paywalled article. Today’s drone strikes on Moscow are a major part of this, meant to cause Russia to overreact in such a way as to spur NATO to accede to these demands for greater involvement in the war.
But let’s take a look once more at why, precisely, Zelensky is in such desperate straits.
We have another sampling of the latest MSM headlines which paints a broad portrait of the AFU’s ongoing toboggan into catastrophe:
The first from The Economist shares how an entire company of 100 men was “wiped out in three days” according to a soldier from the 59th Brigade:
Pay close attention to the Russian fire-recon-complex getting its dues:
Though the article does double back on the laughable claim that “as many as 18 Russians die to dislodge 2 Ukrainian defenders”, the actual Ukrainian officer is quoted as saying something a bit different:
“We are exchanging lives and territory for time and the opponent’s resources.”
This sounds to me like it’s the Ukrainians that are aware they are sacrificing their manpower and territory under the assumption that they’re bleeding Russia’s “resources”, which one assumes to mean equipment and materiel.
“We have been fighting with our last guard, and have thrown our logistics guys into the trenches.”
This is another interesting admission that flies in the face of current dogma—that Russians have the drone and tech advantage:
The Russians are also pressing their advantages in drones and electronic warfare. This is especially evident in their search and strike system, which links advanced reconnaissance drones to strike drones, artillery and aviation. “Physicist”, a tank commander with the 68th, says the Russian air force and artillery can react almost in real time; anything that moves and is not protected is destroyed. His tank drivers consequently now mostly work as static artillery units, operating from closed positions, and much farther back.
What differentiates my reporting from some other people who rely on hearsay, hyperbole, or simple guessing is I let the sources speak for themselves; the above is straight from the horse’s mouth.
The next report comes by way of CNN:
It also speaks of the horrors of the Pokrovsk direction for the AFU:
As a battalion commander, Dima was in charge of around 800 men who fought in some of the fiercest, bloodiest battles of the war – most recently near Pokrovsk, the strategic eastern town that is now on the brink of falling to Russia.
But with most of his troops now dead or severely injured, Dima decided he’d had enough. He quit and took another job with the military – in an office in Kyiv.
Again we hear the same timeworn tale:
Two and half years of Russia’s grinding offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units. Reinforcements are few and far between, leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized. The situation is particularly dire among infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front line, where Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia’s creeping advances.
The more eye-opening admission pertains to the utterly widespread nature of desertion in the AFU’s ranks:
CNN spoke to six commanders and officers who are or were until recently fighting or supervising units in the area. All six said desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers.
“Not all mobilized soldiers are leaving their positions, but the majority are. When new guys come here, they see how difficult it is. They see a lot of enemy drones, artillery and mortars,” one unit commander currently fighting in Pokrovsk told CNN. He also asked to remain anonymous.
The majority of mobilized soldiers are leaving their positions? Mobilized are now the majority of the entire armed forces, so that can’t be a good sign.
Ukrainian soldiers in the area paint a grim picture of the situation. Kyiv’s forces are clearly outnumbered and outgunned, with some commanders estimating there are 10 Russian soldiers to each Ukrainian.
Up next is Globe and Mail:
Which makes an important revelation—that Pokrovsk is one of the most strategically significant points of all Donbass:
“During the war, Pokrovsk has become the administrative, political and logistical centre of the Donetsk region. Whoever controls Pokrovsk also controls the roads to the north and south,” said Major Serhiy Tsehotsky, the press officer for Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade, which is responsible for holding part of the front line east of the city. He said Ukrainian defenders “will do everything possible to prevent the Russians from getting closer to Pokrovsk,” but they are outnumbered four or five to one along much of the front.
Here’s an interesting discursion. The above commander states they’re outnumbered 5:1. The earlier article’s commander stated on his front that ratio is 10:1. Even pro-Ukrainian commenters could not hold back from asking the obvious questions under Rob Lee’s post of the above article:
They bring up a great point: Ukraine was billed as having parity with Russia, or according to some sources, was even outnumbering Russia in total troops as of last year, but suddenly everywhere it’s 5:1 or even 10:1 in Russia’s favor, yet we’re meant to believe Russia is the one taking 18:2 losses? You cannot be a serious, thinking adult at this point and possibly believe that Ukraine is taking less losses than Russia.
By the way, one of the other important takeaways about Pokrovsk was highlighted by another top pro-UA analyst:
…after being told there were no more trains departing from the city – the station was being closed down...the nearest functioning train station, 113 kilometres to the west in the city of Pavlohrad."
This illustrates just how important Pokrovsk is to the region logistically and strategically, given its nature as a railway hub that feeds the entire region’s grouping.
—
Which segues us into the battlefield developments. I’ll leave larger updates for next time, as this Sitrep has enough geopolitical content to cover. But needless to say the Ukrainian front continues to collapse all over the place. Ugledar is almost entirely encircled and by the looks of it could fall in the near future, as Vodiane was totally captured just northeast of it. Even all the way in the north Russian forces have made big gains in the Kupyansk direction.
It’s now universally recognized that Russia’s Pokrovsk campaign did not stall at all but merely transferred its momentum to the flanks in order to first widen the wedge and flatten out the front. This has resulted in big pushes that have nearly surrounded Ukriansk just to the south:
More territory was captured west of Krasnogorovka (red circle), leaving the entire cauldron tightening on the AFU ever-further (yellow):
In fact, my thesis was corroborated by Rada MP Mariana Bezuglaya who wrote on her social media that Syrsky even intentionally began to play with information reporting so as to obfuscate the true nature of the Pokrovsk direction, vis-a-vis Russia’s rerouting southward toward Kurakhove:
Syrsky is trying to hide the failures of the Ukrainian army at the front
"Syrsky ordered that in the reports of the General Staff, Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) should be divided into two directions: Pokrovsk and Kurakh, so that the advance of Russian forces would continue on the Kurakh direction, and that the Pokrovsk direction would be more stable. I congratulate Alexander Syrsky for opening a new direction. He is trying to hide the failures of the Ukrainian army at the front,"
said Maryana Bezugla, a member of the Ukrainian Rada.
But most painful of all for the Ukrainians was a huge counterattack long in the making succeeded for the Russians in the Kursk area. The 51st Guards Paratroopers of the 106th Airborne Division based in Tula launched a huge armored assault south of the embattled Korenevo, reportedly liberating half a dozen settlements like Krasnooktobyarsk (Red October) and Snagost.
Here is footage of their column, followed by the POWs they took in Snagost at the end of the video—the far end shows a graphic segment of those who did not surrender:
The above armored charge was geolocated here:
Video of an armored column with at least 8 tanks and armored vehicles from the Russian VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment assaulting Snagost in Kursk oblast. It appears Russia was able to get the armored force across the Seym River, despite Ukrainian strikes on the bridges. Deepstate_UA says the situation has worsened on Ukraine's left flank in Kursk oblast.
Or a wider view of the hedgerow line they traversed:
They had to pontoon over rivers to carry out the feat, as per AFU:
On that note, an interesting new video of a Ukrainian from the 82nd Brigade of the AFU who claims that they were tasked with committing terrorism on Russian Kursk territory:
The machine gunner of the 82nd airborne assault brigade says that they had orders to shoot a train with passengers in the Kursk region so that Russia would declare war on Ukraine
It’s impossible to say if he’s telling the truth or speaking under duress, but it certainly goes toward validating everything I’ve been writing about Zelenksy’s last-ditch desperate move being to get Russia to overreact and ‘declare war’ so as to wake NATO up and force them to intervene in some way.
—
A few other notes on Ukrainian losses thereof:
Putin gave us a hint in his new interview of Russia’s overall strategy when he stated that Ukraine is taking such massive losses that he expects their armed forces to simply collapse in the near future:
Note he specifically states “which is what we are striving for.”
That is one of the first explicit affirmations from Putin himself of Russia’s total overriding military strategy in Ukraine. Rather than capturing territory or symbolic cities like Kiev, or banking on some political settlement, here he is stating that Russia expects the entire AFU to collapse from the sheer weight of their losses.
This was underscored in a new interview with Shoigu, wherein he stated that Ukraine is now suffering 2,000+ casualties per day.
Although Rezident_UA channel claims the losses as follows:
#Inside
Our source in the General Staff said that now the Armed Forces suffer the largest losses during the war years with Russia, due to the length of the front and the shortage of shells / equipment. In August, the losses of the Armed Forces amounted to 1000-1300 people per day, of which 60% are dead and seriously injured, such dynamics forces the General Staff to accelerate mobilization processes, and Syrsky demands to lower the age to 20 years.
Apti, by the way, also gave his thoughts that Ukraine will make another big attempt to get as close to Kursk nuclear plant as possible to get within shelling range of it and hold Russia under nuclear blackmail:
Lastly, this is a must-watch video when it comes to losses. The footage is said to be from a GoPro camera recovered from a liquidated AFU member in the Kursk region, though it is not graphic and only shows vehicular losses. But it gives an amazing view of the sheer losses the AFU is taking there, with the original commentary being that the Ukrainians are in a state of loss, shock, and confusion as they are simply hit from every side—recall the previous video of the ‘road of death’ showing countless destroyed vehicles spanning miles:
Now there’s been another confirmation about the scale of Ukraine’s losses in the Poltava institute strike a week ago:
The strike on Poltava destroyed the "flying elite of Ukraine".
This was stated by the commander of the Ukrainian reconnaissance unit Denis Yaroslavsky.
The commander of a Ukrainian recon unit states that the strike wiped out the entire elite cadre of Ukraine’s air force personnel:
In fact, Ukraine now admits to high-ranking officials being eliminated in that strike:
Strike on Poltava few days ago, two lieutenant colonels and one major were demilitarised...
But NarcoFuhrer Zelensky claimed it was an attack on “educational institution”…
Check the site above for photos of their funerals as proof.
A final noteworthy clip for this section:
Whether Ukraine will remain a "rump" or not depends on who occupies the Oval Office, says former US intelligence officer Tony Shaffer
"Donbass will be taken in October. And when that happens, both sides will evaluate what to do next. And that will be the best time - if Trump wins the election - to come out and offer to return to sound diplomacy," he says.
But if Harris wins, the Russian Armed Forces will take not only Donbass, but also, possibly, Odessa, he believes.
I think there’s very little chance of the entire Donbass falling by October, but the general gist of his outlook seems correct.
But it does segue us into another important matter. He mentions diplomacy which inspires an interesting thought. There is now a lot of talk about negotiations, and there is a chance that Putin is literally waiting for Trump to come into office to create enough diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to make large concessions. The problem is, the West is now only beginning to ‘warm Ukraine up’ to the idea of giving up the taken territories, but Russia’s official demands are now much more than that, and include drastic demilitarization, amongst other things.
It also brings up the thorny point of the new Shoigu interview making the rounds. The pro-Russian side has been whisked into an uproar over Shoigu’s apparent contradiction of previous Kremlin narrative lines that no negotiations had taken place between Russia and Ukraine on a mutual cessation of energy grid attacks by both sides.
In fact, here is the original Tass report from late August that shows Peskov officially shooting this rumor down:
You can see he very clearly states there were no confidential negotiations on this matter.
But now, Shoigu has seemingly changed the record:
How to reconcile this?
Firstly, Shoigu doesn’t appear to specify when this proposed deal he’s referring to took place. Everyone’s assuming it’s recent but it sounds to me like he’s talking about an old deal long ago, perhaps even when Russia and Ukraine were first meeting in Istanbul. This is evidenced by the fact that he says “after a while”, which suggests a long amount of time elapsed before Kiev reneged on the deal, which points to a deal struck long ago. Secondly, he says the deal involved not striking each other’s civilian cargos in the Black Sea—we know for a fact this discussion is very old and there has been no recent action on this from either side that would have necessitated such a discussion about deals any time recently. These two factors appear to confidently age this deal Shoigu’s referring to by quite some time.
For the record, shortly after Shoigu’s comments above, RIA posted an official update from the Kremlin:
RIA_Kremlinpool:
Before the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ invasion of the Kursk region, there were no clear agreements between Russia and Ukraine to refrain from striking energy facilities, Peskov said.
It is now difficult to imagine the possibility of reaching any agreements given the situation in the Kursk region.
Earlier, Shoigu said that before the events in the border area, Putin accepted Turkey's proposal to refrain from striking energy facilities, nuclear power plants, and the commercial and civilian fleet. But Kyiv refused to agree to such agreements.
Peskov also released a new statement, where he plainly states “there were no clear agreements” on this:
To play devil’s advocate, the Kremlin may have been genuinely concerned about a dementedly rogue Zelensky striking nuclear plants and creating a catastrophe for Russia. In such a case, it would be better to take a reputational hit and compromise with a madman for the sake of caution, while still slowly attritioning his army in the field.
For instance, on that account we have this new report as an example of the lengths the West is willing to go to in their desperation:
Sometimes it’s better to take a smaller loss for safety’s sake when you’re still on the path to overall victory in the war, but in general, it appears no such ‘negotiations’ were taking place any time recently by my reading of the facts, though I’m open to be proven wrong if further information comes to light.
—
On that note, a new statement by Ukrainian Energy Research institute director A. Kharchenko:
‼️🇺🇦 🏴☠️Ukraine is going underground and will plunge into darkness
▪️The worst situation with electricity this winter will be in Odessa, Kharkov and Kyiv, where there may be no electricity for 16 hours at a time, said the director of the Center for Energy Research A. Kharchenko.
▪️"There are several weak points in the energy system in Ukraine. These are Kyiv, Odessa and Kharkov, where it will be the worst now. These are large cities, Kharkov is generally under direct fire, any substation and any generating capacity there can be destroyed at any moment. There are the highest military risks.
▪️Kiev and Odessa are huge consuming points, Odessa has almost no own generation. Now generating capacities are being installed there, which, God willing, will be able to provide water supply. It will be very good if they manage to launch what should provide water supply and at least half of the city's heat supply.
▪️Kiev is an extremely energy-deficient city. The Chernobyl power station was once built for Kyiv, essentially to provide it with energy. In winter, Kyiv lacks 800-900 megawatts of power, which must be brought in from outside. If there is nowhere to bring them from, let's be honest, this means that Kiev residents will be left without electricity. That is, if Kyiv is cut off from external energy supply, Kiev residents will sit without light for 16 hours a day, and this will be the norm," Kharchenko said.
▪️Ukraine is also organizing underground production of weapons and ammunition, Zelensky said during the day
➖ “We are building underground facilities for weapons production so that Ukrainian soldiers can defend themselves even when supplies from our partners are delayed,” he said at the Ambrosetti international forum in Italy.
RVvoenkor
A little on European geopolitics.
Reports claim Tusk has cancelled his German trip due to ongoing Nord Stream controversies:
🇵🇱👊🇩🇪 Polish PM cancels trip to Germany amid worsening relations between countries over Nord Stream 2 disruption, - Euroactiv
▪️The last-minute cancellation of the visit to the M100 Media Award was officially explained by "important national commitments"; the prime minister's place will be taken by Justice Minister Adam Bodnar.
▪️Chancellor Scholz, who was supposed to deliver a eulogy for Tusk, will also not attend the ceremony - "due to scheduling conflicts."
▪️According to the publication's sources, the reason for the deterioration in relations was the scandal with Nord Stream. Berlin believes that Warsaw helped the suspect in the pipeline explosion escape to Ukraine.
RVvoenkor
More and more German politicians are starting to wake up to Zelensky’s lies. Seen on German N-TV recently was retired colonel Ralf Thiele, who accused Ukraine of waging information war against Germany:
"Zelensky is waging a constant information war against us - using the media, with whose help he wants to force us to supply long-range weapons. And by doing so, he actually wants to make us participants in the war"
A breakthrough in reality on German TV, comrades! Military expert and retired colonel of the German Armed Forces Ralf Thiele openly told N-TV: it is not the Kremlin that is waging an information war against Germany, but our native Ukrainian ally! And its goal is to drag Deutschland into a war with Russia. "Zrada" (betrayal) crept up from where we least expected it.
Meanwhile, Scholz was asked point blank if he trusts Zelensky over recent Nord Stream revelations, to which he responded things must be clarified by Ukraine:
Germany’s Sahra Wagenknecht blasted Olaf Scholz:
Do you see why they're afraid of Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht's left? "Olaf Scholz is a vassal chancellor of the USA" "We don't have a sovereign government" "The Greens are the most hypocritical, most detached, most mendacious, most incompetent party in the Bundestag"
That’s not to mention that Bild reports Ukraine is running out of parts for German equipment, which is now breaking down en masse:
‼️🇩🇪🇺🇦 German self-propelled howitzers in Ukraine are breaking down en masse — Bild
▪️The problem is that there is a catastrophic shortage of spare parts to maintain their combat capability. "This is a great system, but the wear and tear is incredibly high," say Ukrainian military personnel.
▪️The most urgent need is for replacement barrels, but the process of their delivery is slow. Germany supplies only a limited number of barrels to restore at least some of the equipment, but bureaucracy is greatly slowing down the process, and this applies not only to barrels, but also to other components.
▪️"It is absurd that more systems fail due to a lack of spare parts than due to combat," said Markus Faber, head of the Bundestag's defense committee.
▪️ At the same time, this does not yet affect the combat capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, since NATO continues to drive artillery and armored vehicles into Ukraine.
RVvoenkor
—
One other important video to see on the European front.
The European Union decided to analyze why their economy is collapsing. They commissioned the former head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, to figure this out. It is noteworthy that the study was commissioned by the European Commission, but the conclusions were still disappointing. Draghi came to the conclusion that the basis of Europe's economic problems is the cost of energy for industry - electricity is 158% more expensive than in the US, natural gas - 345%. Thus, in fact, Ursula von der Leyen's department confirmed its own professional incompetence with statistics and research, because thanks to anti-Russian sanctions, there was a vast jump in energy prices and, as a result, a decline in the economy
Draghi ended up concluding that in order to “catch up” to the US and undo the catastrophic self-administered damage that Europe sustained in cutting off Russian energy, the continent must now spend more than the post-WWII Marshall Plan in order to bring growth and industry back to normal levels.
Needless to say, that’s not happening.
As a side note, check how corrupt German regime media cheats the AfD, which has 17% but is drawn smaller than the SPD bar with 15% to create negative subliminal perceptions:
—
Many have seen by now that Lindsey Graham has again quite openly revealed the true intent behind the United States’ involvement in the Ukrainian conflict:
Note in particular how chummily he backslaps Zelensky as if he’s a little boy on a school trip. Would Graham dare deign to condescendingly slap any other leader of a major sovereign country like that? Macron, Scholz, etc.? It’s quite evocative of how the US views Ukraine: as nothing more than an abject pawn to be moved around on the board in the great game for those “trillions” he’s salivating over.
—
Polish newspaper reports that the mighty Ukrainian legions being trained in Poland never materialized:
Attempt to form a "Ukrainian Legion" in Poland has failed — Dziennik Gazeta Prawna
The formation of the "Ukrainian Legion" in Poland, announced by Zelensky in July, never started on the appointed date of August 1. Poland was ready to begin training volunteers, but Kyiv did not begin recruiting.
The Legion was to consist of Ukrainians living in the EU and be trained by the Polish army. According to a representative of the Polish Ministry of Defense, the recruitment was postponed due to the lack of action from Ukrainian diplomatic missions. RVvoenkor
A last few interesting weapons updates from the front:
The biggest comes from the revelation that Russia is now finally actively using its heavy UCAV the Orion or Inokhodets drone, but in an actual strike role. Most know the Orion has been used for surveillance only, owing to its superior optics; but it’s usually held dozens of kilometers back and used to guide various types of artillery strikes, particularly at night.
But now, there has been footage claiming to show the Orion using its Kornet-adapted missile against Ukrainian armor on the Kursk front, destroying several Ukrainian T-64 tanks:
T-64BV knocked by a strike from an Orion drone with a X-BPLA missile near Sudzha, Kursk region
The X-BPLA is based on the Kornet-D ATGM adapted for use from Drones and Helicopters
This obviously indicates two major things:
That Russia has begun manufacturing these drones to scale, such that they no longer fear losing one by getting too close to the front. And/or 2: that Ukraine’s frontline SHORAD air defense is so attritioned as to allow these vulnerable heavy UCAVs to now operate without restriction along the frontline.
If it was just that one errant video, I would not have even made the report. But there has been two separate direct reports from the front I’ve read this week attesting to this development. One simply was a confirmation from Russian military sources that the drones are now being used in Kursk. The second, was a confirmation from the AFU’s top radioelectronics expert, Serhiy Flash, that he has now “detected” multiple Orions operating on the front several times—which you can see for yourself here:
Furthermore, what seems to support this “sudden” spike in Russian UCAV activity are several more instances of other UCAVs being spotted.
First, another video surfaced purporting to show the Russian Forpost (licensed Israeli IAI Searcher) destroying more Ukrainian targets in Kursk:
Russian strike drone "Forpost" hit Ukrainian Armed Forces air defense system in Kursk region
The drone destroyed Ukrainian military base with a guided aerial bomb. The target was hit in the village of Snagost, Korenevsky district.
Separate report:
In addition to the Inokhodets-RU reconnaissance and strike UAVs, which have been successfully targeting AFU armoured vehicles in the Kursk region with multi-purpose tactical Х-БПЛА missiles, the command of North Group has decided to engage another unmanned reconnaissance and strike platform that has proven itself in the SMO zone.
We are talking about ‘Forpost-RU’ ("Форпост-РУ") drones, developed on the basis of Israeli IAI Searcher II UAVs, which operate in medium-altitude mode for 16-18 hours and work on the enemy with light guided munitions such as KAB-20 (on the video).
The maximum flight speed of the UAV by means of the 85 horsepower piston engine АПД-85 can reach 200 km/h, cruising speed is 120-160 km/h. In this case, the strike targeted AFU strongholds in the village of Snagost in the Kursk region.
Again this is a clear indication of the problems the AFU has in this area in clearing the skies.
This was followed by new footage showing a downed Iranian Mohajer-6—also in Kursk—with its guided aerial bombs attached:
A Mohajer-6 drone with Ghaem-5 guided aerial bombs crashed in the Kursk region.
Previously, these drones were recorded exclusively in the south, but either they "moved" to the north to support the offensive in the Kharkov region, or a new batch of drones arrived from Iran.
Informant
Thus you can see the sudden preponderance of evidence indicating that Russia has suddenly activated the UCAVs en masse for the first time, specifically over Kursk region. This is likely due to Russia feeling much more comfortable using them over its own territory given that Ukrainian SHORAD AD has probably not been brought up in great number that deep into Russian territory, and the little that was, has already been attritioned, as we’ve seen several videos of Ukrainian Buks and Patriots being destroyed on this front.
—
A newly released video apparently shows Russian T-72B3M tanks being fitted with Arena hardkill APS countermeasures, which may imply they will finally be rolling out some serial variants of this, though it’s hard to say for sure:
Either way, it’s not expected to do much against FPVs given that the expert consensus is that APS is unlikely to be effective against slow-moving drones because it is specifically programmed to only engage fast-moving projectiles. If you changed the programming, then the APS would be engaging everything from falling twigs and leaves, to pebbles, to birds slowly flying past the tank. Without advanced artificial intelligence of some sort—which no APS currently has—it’s impossible to really differentiate between all these slow-moving objects.
That’s not to mention the fact that APS in general was proven to be mostly ineffective as the “world-leading” Israeli Trophy system proved totally useless in Gaza, failing to show a single successful activation in dozens of videos of strikes on Israeli Merkava tanks equipped with the system.
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Another astounding article, but Simplicius I know you posted the poll for the quantity of content. Don't feel pressured to put out, we are perfectly ok with 1 article a week and we value your time.
Strikes... " within the European part of Russia."
That Europe and Asia are 2 different continents is one of the most absurd constructs still surviving in the post-modern world. Clearly they are as geographically connected as is possible. Are we to accept through some form of pretzel logic, that the Ural Mountains are a formidable barrier, while the Himalayas are not?
Europe was a purely political construct based on a brief period of civilizational supremacy. It's over and Eurasia is one continent.