SITREP 8/6/24: Shaky Start of Zelensky's Risky Gambit to Deflect Disaster

Events have accelerated today in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Today, Zelensky decided to launch what some Russian commentators are calling the single largest land assault into Russian territory of the entire SMO thus far. What stood it apart from the previous mid-level raids on Belgorod region and such, is that this time it wasn’t the ‘Russian Legion’ paramilitary group—made up of disgruntled traitor Russians—but rather the full force of the AFU itself, by way of the 22nd Mechanized Bridge, from what I’ve seen so far. Details are still coming in, but it’s said to have been around 3 battalions or 1 brigade in size, though some report several hundred troops for now.

The attack was decently well-coordinated and utilized the full breadth of combined arms warfare, with Ukrainian forces leading with a mass FPV drone attack, and pulling up mobile air defenses to cover the advancement. One of them, a Buk-M1, was hit by Russian cluster munitions—likely from the Tornado-S GMLRS:

It was initially reported to be 2 Buks, but some believe the video shows the same one being hit twice then finished off—though it’s not certain yet.

Iskanders were in play, hitting entire columns of Ukrainian light armor:

While Lancets and other munitions were finishing them off, with potentially a couple dozen or more AFU vehicles destroyed, which included a few tanks, Strykers, and other light MRAPS:

A Russian drone spotted some AFU vehicles in a treeline in Kursk oblast and it was decided that an Iskander missile was the best way to make them pay. Any militants in the vicinity of the blast will have been killed or wounded.

One tally allegedly counted dozens of destroyed vehicles:

One of the geolocated vehicle graveyards:

Nasa FIRMS heatmaps:

As can be seen, it’s about a good 6km from the border that the raid pushed into.

The breakthrough in the Kursk region was the first mass use of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Stryker armored personnel carriers

The enemy had previously saved and hidden such vehicles in the brigades covering Kyiv from the north on the border with Belarus. Although several "Strykers" were burned during their rare appearances on the front lines.

But today, the Ukrainian Armed Forces apparently decided to go for broke. They rolled out two dozen vehicles, provided cover with tanks and FPV drones, and rushed with almost an entire battalion on wheeled Strykers along the Rylsk-Sudzha highway in the hope that they might get somewhere. The calculation is simple - the M1128 can accelerate to 121 km/h on the highway. In the photo, by the way, a Stryker with a mine trawl to get through border barriers.

But near the village of Nizhniy Klin (5-6 kilometers from the border) the column of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was ambushed and destroyed. Most of the armored vehicles were left to burn after artillery and air strikes. The remnants of the Ukrainian army may be hiding in the forests near the border.

Meanwhile, in the nearby villages on the Ukrainian side, they are recording a build-up of forces – apparently to try to strike a second time.

ANNA news

Russian Su-25s also swooped down in response over Kursk region highways lined with vehicles wrecked by Ukrainian drones:

However, it was not without losses for the Russian side, as a Ka-52 was hit by the air defense, as well as another—as of yet undetermined—helicopter, possibly an Mi-8. Furthermore, two Russian T-62M tanks being transported on HETs were taken out by the advanced-deployed FPVs. Also, several Russian border conscripts were captured.

Downed Ka-52, though the pilots were said to have survived.

These losses caused some on the pro-Russian side to go into a meltdown, claiming Russia was unprepared, heaping blame on the MOD. In reality, as far as I can tell, Russia knew very well in advance of this assault. Not only were there cross-border clashes recently but a large amount of Ukrainian troops were noted to have been building up in Sumy by observers, such as the pro-RU commentator “Masno” who lives in the Sumy region and noted the buildup as recently as a week ago.

Furthermore, for those who’ve read my latest paywalled article from last night, you’ll note I referenced a rumor that Zelensky could launch a northern misdirection attack prior to the real vector in the south, toward Energodar—although this rumor had stated Kharkov, rather than Sumy specifically. From yesterday’s article:

Of course, this wasn’t expected until possibly another 2 months or so, but the current breach could just be a test or precursor of some kind.

Rezident UA channel seems to support this theory:

#Inside
Our source in the General Staff said that the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kursk region was organized as a distracting maneuver for preparing a counteroffensive at the Zaporizhzhya NPP. The second stage will be a blow to Russian positions in the Belgorod direction in order to force the enemy to transfer reserves to maintain positions and only then will the main offensive operation follow.

And Russian sources are indicating that what we’ve seen so far today may just be the appetizer, as Ukrainian forces are pulling up more reserves and are said to redouble the attack tomorrow.

One corroborating report:

We are currently in touch with those who are directly involved in the fighting on the border with the Kursk region. They say that the crests are conducting a full-scale combined arms operation. They are not retreating, but are only organizing troops to continue the attack and transferring new reserves. Our Mi-8 was shot down, but the crew was able to land the aircraft and survived. They believe that what happened today was just reconnaissance in force, and the main battles are still ahead.

Where are they getting these forces, if Ukraine is supposed to be so short on men? It’s hard to say because we don’t know all the details yet, but a few hundred to a thousand men is really not that great of an amount to spare for a desperate side operation. Plus, some like Apti Alaudinov are saying that this is Ukraine’s last hurrah, and after this they’ll be spent. I don’t think that’s the case, but we’ll see.

Also, a new article in German Tagesspiegel magazine appears to have the answer:

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/militarexperte-uber-die-lage-im-ukrainekrieg-friedensverhandlungen-sind-pure-spekulation-von-biertischdiplomaten-12111254.html

According to them, Ukraine merely sends all new recruits to newly constructed brigades rather than replenishing brigades on the front, which are drastically losing manpower. Summary:

Ukraine faced critical problems at the — front, this is military fatigue, losses among qualified personnel, lack of ammunition and armored vehicles, as well as vulnerability to attacks by Russian planning bombs. This was stated by the German military expert of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Gustav Gressel.

Kiev sends mobilized soldiers to new brigades instead of replenishing existing ones, the newspaper cites Der tagesspiegel opinion expert. As a result, "exhausted fighters in thinning units at the front do not see reinforcements," and the new brigades have low alert due to a lack of command personnel, Gresel said.

"Even far from the front, hostilities increasingly deplete the morale, resources and infrastructure of Ukraine", — noted the expert. In addition, according to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine has a shortage of ammunition, materiel (especially armored vehicles), vulnerability to attacks by Russian planning bombs, and an almost complete lack of opportunities to intercept Russian reconnaissance drones.

This was supported by a new statement from Ukrainian Rada secretary Roman Kostenko:

The pace of mobilization in Ukraine does not allow to fully equip the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for warfare. This was stated by the secretary of the Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Roman Kostenko.

"We need new brigades, we need three sets: some are fighting, some in reserve, some are recovering. Unfortunately, with the pace of mobilization that we now have, we cannot do this", — said Kostenko in an interview with NV.

According to the secretary, Ukrainian brigades at the forefront are forced to endure and perform tasks without reinforcements.

As a result, the fact that we are witnessing new reductions in the list of categories entitled to defer mobilization is precisely the result of monstrous losses at the front. True, Ukrainians, increasingly realizing that they do not live in a democratic country, but in fact in the "conclager", will run even in large numbers, and hatred of the authorities will outweigh the "Tokholm syndrome", which is now experiencing a fair part of the population. Thus, the erratic and massive capture of men caused irreparable damage to the production, agricultural, transport and communal sectors. And Ukraine is now more than ever threatened by a full-blown collapse and a protracted crisis.

This leads to the next natural question though: why did Zelensky launch this now of all times? The most likely reason—or at least only one that seems obvious at the moment—is that Ukraine’s Donbass collapse is picking up such speed right now, that Zelensky needed a desperate PR victory to deflect from Russia’s crushing successes.

Alexander Khodakovsky summarized it best:

Alexander Khodakovsky:

The enemy's actions in the Kursk region fit perfectly into the logic of this phase of the war: when you are knocked down, you need to quickly raise your hands and show the referee that you are capable of fighting, otherwise the fight will be stopped and you will be counted as a loser. Yesterday I wrote that in one form or another we will see attempts to seize the initiative.

There’s also the consideration that so much has been going on in the headlines recently, what with Israeli-Iran escalation and now the huge financial crash, Zelensky likely felt Ukraine slowly slipping from the headlines, and needed to give it a jolt, lest it be totally swept out of the news cycle.

At the same time as Ukrainian forces were heading into Kursk region, Russian forces not only announced the capture of New York, but that capture even stitched up a whole cauldron from which a major contingent of AFU were forced to retreat out of. It’s unknown yet exactly how far Russian forces went, as initially the map looked like this, earlier in the day:

But as AFU units in the cauldron to the right began to flee, there were claims it was being cinched up:

With this set to be soon:

Thus, we can only assume that the ongoing collapse was beginning to be such a major drain on Zelensky’s ability to keep up appearances for his peanut gallery that he was forced to try and create some symbolic token victory stunt. Some believe the true orientation of this offensive is to strike northeast and “capture” Russia’s Kursk nuclear power plant, which is about 55km from the Ukrainian border.

While that would appear logical in theory, it seems too irrationally impractical given the forces Ukraine has left, as that would entail a massive rupture of Russia’s defenses. More realistically, however, would be perhaps simply to get close enough to put the power plant under the knife—i.e. artillery and drone range. Supporting this basis, is the fact that during the ongoing breach, Ukrainian drones actually began hitting Kurchatov, right next to the plant, about 2km away.

Circled in red is Kurchatov, in yellow is the nuke plant. It’s clear Ukraine wants to rattle Russia and hold it at the end of a gun in the most sensitive way possible, particularly prior to any perceived-to-be-forced negotiations in the near to medium-term future.

On the situation in Kursk Oblast as of the end of August 6.

1. The enemy has not been pushed out of the border areas of Kursk Oblast by the evening, despite the losses it has suffered.

2. Intensive fighting continues in the border areas. Artillery is actively operating on both sides.

3. The enemy is noted to be pulling up reserves from the Shostka area. The enemy will try to gain a foothold in the border areas.

4. The attack itself is already obviously not just a "sabotage and reconnaissance group raid", but a fairly large-scale operation, where the enemy is currently using forces of up to two brigades, which are covered by a significant number of air defense systems (2 air defense systems were destroyed by our military during the day).

5. Air defense was operating in the Kurchatov area. They shot everything down.

As the above states, Ukrainian forces have reportedly not been pushed out of the first settlement over the border where they’ve entrenched themselves. They went further first, then got pushed back, but as of the last reports, there are some still entrenched in Sverdlikovo:

So, it still potentially represents an interesting gain for the AFU. If this is said to be the largest incursion into Russian territory of the entire SMO, then that means by default, it is the largest land invasion of actual Russian land since Operation Barbarossa of WWII. Silly as that might sound, it nonetheless represents a kind of triggering ancestral memory to Russians, particularly in the Kursk region.

This is doubled by the fact that Ukrainian forces have now wantonly and indiscriminately been attacking civilians in the region during the hostilities. Yesterday they killed an old woman in her apartment with a drone, in a clear case of deliberate civilian murder:

Today more drones hit a car with children, as well as an ambulance near the Kursk region, killing a medic and another man.

This is obviously all by choice and design, the secondary objective clearly being to sow discontent amongst the populace in order to destabilize Putin’s authority.

Many prominent analysts on the pro-Ukrainian side however are greatly irritated by what they consider another in a long series of senseless attacks that will ultimately lead to futile losses:

‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a very difficult situation and risk running out of resources! - Butusov on the dangerous offensive in the Kursk region

▪️Ukrainian propagandist - editor-in-chief of "Censor.net" Yu. Butusov doubts the advisability of an offensive on the Kursk region in the context of the difficult situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in other parts of the front.

➖"I don't have all the information, but if we have started to attack somewhere, then we should hope that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters has taken the necessary measures to strengthen the defense of Mirnograd, Chasy Yar, Toretsk and New York, important cities where fighting is currently taking place, with reserves. This means that ammunition is being concentrated there in the near future, reliable lines are being built, the use of drones and electronic warfare is being improved," Butusov writes, hinting that none of this has been done.

▪️After all, without organizing a permanent defense in the strategic directions of the offensive of the RF Armed Forces and without destroying the combat capability of strike groups, “there is a risk of exhausting our reserves and then not having anything to counter new attacks with.”

▪️"As it happened in 2023, when our reserves were exhausted, which led to the loss of Avdiivka," he writes.

It seems they’re some of the last remaining ones with some sense left.

The biggest of all was Forbes’ infamous David Axe, raging in bewilderment at the seeming Ukrainian blunder:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/06/pro-ukrainian-russian-troops-in-us-made-stryker-vehicles-just-launched-a-pointless-invasion-of-russia-meanwhile-ukrainian-defenses-crumble-for-a-want-of-manpower/

And the Ukrainian reserve officer, Tatarigami, also refuted assertions that the Ukrainian attack on Kursk was a fixing operation in the same vein that Russia carried out on Volchansk, to bleed AFU reserves from Pokrovsk. Instead, he states that Russia has long had plenty of reserves in the Kursk region and will not need to pull additional ones from any other front:

This is true, in fact I believe I covered some of his previous reports on this specifically, wherein he and his team used satellite and other HUMINT info to investigate the buildup of Russian reserves in the general Belgorod-Kursk region.

There also happens to be a gas pipeline which runs right through this region:

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A Ukrainian soldier named ‘Alex’ from the 53rd Brigade writes a fascinating description of Russian assault tactics from the New York direction:

A better translation of the above:

Officer+.

The situation in the direction of New York - Toretsk from the guys from the 53rd Brigade (AFU):

"Attacks are continuous. It's all infantry. There is almost no equipment, you can fly an FPV drone over the entire the whole battalion and find nothing. The fa**ot infantry is not easy: meat. Not meat, I don't know, but, for example, this is a disappointing episode. Seven fa**ots reach a position, engage in combat.

They clear first one position and then the other, and we have 200, 300 and prisoners. The fa**ots didn't even have any wounded. I'm telling you this to make you understand that you shouldn't underestimate the enemy.

What he’s saying here is, the new Russian advancement tactics utilize such small scale combat teams, that Ukrainian FPVs literally can’t find any targets to hit. Russia has eschewed major armor pushes in some areas, and just advances with 4-7 infantry at a time, which quickly lodge themselves into the forest tracts and hedgerows, disappearing from view.

He complains that the Russians accumulate a larger pool of men via this slow trickle of fire teams, then once they’ve accumulated, they jump into the trenches and dole out 200s and 300s to the AFU defenders, taking no losses themselves—a naked admission of Russia’s low casualties during many assaults.

In short, they’re frustrated that these tactics prevent Ukrainian troops from being able to stop the gradual, boa constrictor-like advances.

He goes on:

The brigade came in almost ready to fight, but over time the brigade is being ground down to nothing(( And the fa**ots know it well, as if they are waiting. In short, they are fighting there now very. They have found a system that works, and they are using it. It's very hard for our art (artillery) to work. There are always 10-15 eagles (ed: Orlan drones which spot the artillery to take it out) or a room (ed: Zala drone) in the sector. In order to to support the infantry is like playing roulette. They cover you with FPV or a counter-battery."

It's hard for the guys, but they are holding their positions very well, They say that if they could add some intelligence to certain senior commanders, they would hold on even longer)

Here he’s saying that Russian Orlans and Zalas are ubiquitous overhead and as soon as Ukrainian artillery tries to work on these small platoons, Russian counterbattery spots them; thus they fret that it’s very difficult to use either arty or drones at all.

This is the only way to combat the current FPV overmatch of the battlefield: disperse your forces into such small groups that you effectively thin out the FPVs’ ability to attack your accumulations of manpower.

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By the way, the Ukrainian incursion came with a bag of tricks, which included a deep fake of Russia’s Kursk region governor Alexey Smirnov recruiting men to “join an armed militia”—which is meant to spread fear and cause panic among the population. Clever stuff.

Check the two videos, fake, and original, side by side:

❕ ATTENTION ❕

A fake video of Kursk Region head Alexey Smirnov allegedly recruiting men to join the militia is being circulated online

The deepfake was created based on a real video of Smirnov, which was published on the official channel of the head of the region.

Be careful, trust only official sources of information!

A final word from Russian analyst Starshe Eddy:

The next few days and even a couple of weeks will be a time of very tough fighting both in the Kursk and Belgorod directions. The enemy has amassed large forces, and the state border line, or more precisely the front line, is very long, so it is possible to strike almost anywhere.

Now we will probably see massive missile strikes across the entire territory of Ukraine, which will be called upon to both help our troops repel the enemy's offensive, destroying it in the operational-tactical zone (missile and bomb strikes), and to hit the distant rear. The enemy has pulled together not only manpower and tanks with armored fighting vehicles, he also tried to cover the sky above the advancing group as much as possible. So soon we will see the destroyed Patriot installations and, as I think, the first F-16s will also be shot down by the Northerners. If anything, my post is not sweet honey, but just the opposite. We are facing a tough battle, but its outcome will be the defeat and destruction of the enemy. We have enough political will, and the military will do their job, despite some shortcomings of the initial stage.

For the first day of the battle, we can only say one thing, that the breakthrough was expensive for the enemy, the coming night will add even more losses. We are also suffering losses, it is stupid to deny them, but let's wait a few days and then start making some comparisons.

In other breaking news, in a much talked-about visit, Shoigu touched down in Iran, where headlines spun all sorts of speculation. NY Times in particular claimed insider “sources” that Iran asked for radars and air defense, and Russia has been providing them, as per our recent reports showing heavy lift flights to Tehran:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-asks-russia-air-defenses-062426734.html

Two Iranian officials familiar with the war planning, one a member of Revolutionary Guards Corps, confirmed Iran made the request and said Russia started delivering advanced radars and air-defense equipment - Publication reveals, citing anon officials.

Recall that Putin recently promised to the U.S. that Russia will arm U.S.’ enemies in tit-for-tat fashion.

In fact, on this account, it was quite a striking juxtaposition to see the Russian ex-Defense Minister with his Iranian counterparts at the same exact time that American general staff was meeting with its Israeli counterpart earlier today—the proxy conflict in full effect:

Also, this interesting thread about the visit pointed out some unseen details. Specifically that the meetings seemed heavily weighted toward weapons exchange negotiations, by implication, given that the Iranian guy in charge of UAV exports to Russia, and the Russian military technical cooperation head were both present:

During the meeting with Bagheri, key Russian officials included Shoigu's deputy Venediktov, and also Dmitry Shugaev. Shugaev is Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, responsible for military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries.

The Iranian side included Brig. Gen. Mehrabi (and Ghoreishi), who was also present when Shoigu visited Iran in 2023 as Defence Minister. The US sanctioned Brig. Gen. Ghoreishi in 2023 (while he was at another post), claiming he negotiated UAV exports to Russia.

One report claims Iran’s awaited attack may be more serious than last time:

Israel assesses that Iran axis may target high-profile sites such as the Knesset, Prime Minister's Office, Israeli army Headquarters, Mossad HQ and/or Air Force & Israeli army intel bases; other potential targets include power plants, seaports & airports

Putin also seemed to give tacit approval for Iran to strike when he merely urged Iran to “avoid civilian casualties”, which basically translates to: “Give them hell, but aim for legal targets.”

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From his later stop in Azerbaijan, Shoigu gave a brief update, which included the astounding claim that Ukraine has lost 120,000 men in the past 2 months alone:

Gerasimov also visited the frontline to hand out awards:

⚡️Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation / First Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army️ Valery Gerasimov visits units of Tsentr Group of Forces in special military operation zone

During the visit, Chief of the General Staff was briefed on the situation in the areas of responsibility by the commanders of the formations performing tasks in Krasnoarmeysk and Aleksandro-Kalinovo directions. General of the Army Gerasimov summed up the results and set tasks on the following actions.

Moreover, in the course of the work, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov presented state awards to servicemen who demonstrated valour and courage during the combat tasks.

And here’s Apti’s address about the AFU incursion mentioned earlier:

A couple last disparate items:

Some will recall from the last report I also outlined the vast amount of Ukrainian men fleeing over the borders each day. Now there’s a new incident as proof, as over 40 young Ukrainian men were detained by border guards trying to flee to Transnistria:

In Stanislavka, Odessa region , a Kamaz truck with men of fighting age was detained today, which was heading to Transnistria. Conscripts were trying to avoid being sent to battlefield. There were 42 people in the truck.

What’s interesting is that reports claim the SBU is setting up such traps intentionally. They use online groups to entice men who want to flee into joining a large batch in a truck, so they can catch them all in large number at once. Thus, men wanting to flee are advised to keep it to caravans with 3-4 people at a time or less.

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Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov finally cleared up the big mystery about the so-called ‘emergency phone call’ that took place between Russian DefMin Belousov and U.S.’ Lloyd Austin. In short, he states that Ukraine was planning on striking the Russian Navy Day flotilla parade in St. Petersburg last week, the same one that Putin and Belousov were giving honors at, which can only be read as a potential assassination attempt on the two:

Full story:

Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Ryabkov said that Ukrainian special services were preparing an attack in Russia on Navy Day. It was prevented after Belousov’s call to the US Secretary of Defense.

According to Ryabkov, the attack was specially prepared on July 28 in order to “inflict maximum damage and obtain maximum media effect.” Ryabkov did not disclose the details of the planned attack; on the air of “Russia-1” it was said that they were a state secret.

On July 12, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov telephoned US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, after which the New York Times stated that the parties discussed Ukraine's planned operation in Russia. After this, the United States allegedly contacted Ukraine and urged it not to carry out this operation if it really planned it.

As can be seen, even the U.S. was not suicidal enough to allow Ukraine to go through with such a brazen plot, and immediately put the kibosh to it.

This is a timely reminder that Russian intel services and the CIA reached agreements prior to the start of the war on many ‘red lines’, in order to carry out a gentlemanly conflict of sorts:

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A few last bonus contrasting videos:

For the first time, Ukraine shows how its Su-24s launch the Storm Shadow missiles—with old cut-in strike footage at the end for mere effect:

Meanwhile, Russia showed how its own Su-24s launch chute-retarded bombs over the Black Sea to strike Ukrainian naval drones—you can see the explosion of the direct hit on the laden drone:

Interesting to see the same plane utilized on both sides at the same time.

Lastly, Russia also released rare footage of the release of its newest UMPB D-30SN glide-bombs, a sleaker, more advanced version of the primitive-looking UMPKs we’ve been used to seeing:

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