There aren’t a whole lot of significant battlefield updates just yet, so I wanted to take this time to project what the medium-term future will look like based on Ukraine and the West’s signaled plans for the next 6 months and more. But first, let’s summarize roughly where things stand, particularly vis a vis the grand summer ‘offensive’ so that we’re all on the same page as to where the conflict currently stands narratively.
"The goal of this would be obvious: to force Russia into somehow over-reacting with an uncharacteristically rash use of force which could highlight Russia’s “brutality” and wring sympathy and further support for Ukraine from Western nations."
If Russia doesn't respond to attacks, the narrative will be that Russia is weak and the West must escalate.
If Russia does respond, the narrative will be that Russia is brutal and the West must escalate.
It doesn't really matter what Russia does, since Russia has no real way to affect the decisionmakers in Washington, the US and its puppets will do what they want to do.
EDIT I should have added that Russia will be depicted as brutal, regardless what Russia does. If real atrocities cannot be found, fake ones will be manufactured.
How many Ukrainians are currently training in the EU and USA? That would be a factor in determining NATO's commitment to prolonging the war.
I'd then compare that with Medvedev, in that video about Russian conscription: "The results of these and other measures of the state are obvious. According to the Ministry of Defense, from Jan 1 to Aug 3, that is, today, more than 231,000 people have signed the contract."
The above time frame amplifies the achievement and commitment.
Blinken condemning Navalny’s persecution was clown world at its best this week. The Premier League is organizing a bunch of fundraising football games for Ukraine, Putin is literally shaking!
Simplicius, you might find this article interesting as it examines how woke communism is destroying the west, and how Russia is avoiding making the same mistake.
Simplicius, would be great if you provided a single analysis of the Black Sea situation, and its possible futures.
I can't imagine the war lasting 5-10 years. Either there's a 'Korean' line which last decades, or Ukraine collapses because America focuses on China whilst the EU comes to terms with its new conservative governments who will look to make peace with Russia.
What would be the benefit for Ukraine allowing Poland into territories it knows they want? Nobody gives up something without self-enriching motive.
Instead of "The weak level of English among Ukrainian pilots proved to be a stumbling block for the start of their training on F-16 fighters", how about "The weak level of Ukrainian among American pilot trainers proved to be a stumbling block..." :)
David Wu relegated Scott Ritter to second place on the confidence list. Hoping that video is on Bitchute or RT so that I can embed it one of my posts.
Lira posted videos at 2am Ukrainian time, and he recorded them in daylight. I still don't have a set opinion on him. A period in prison, in pain and with your family under threat, can make people turn. I just don't know.
Simplicius, your shorter post length allows me to spend some time in the sun today :)
Another great update. The Russian communication tech upgrades is very interesting. The one thing the west is clearly very good at is intelligence. Not just battlefield recon or planning specOps, but communication and logistics Intel. Things like the Iran drone deal, or Wagner supposedly getting weapons from the NORKs. I wonder if the FSB/Russian Intel is also seeing massive upgrades in its ability to counter CIA/MI6 Intel.
Thank You, Simplicius. I was most curious about what move Wagner would make, since Prigozhin dropped the hint a few days ago It is early enough in Niger for a modest Wagner presence to be a strong deterrent to an invason. There seems to be limited local Afriican desire to invade Niger. The winds are shifting against French neo-colonialism.
Nobody really wats to be on the wrong side of history in Africa...
As a former EME in my country's Army the words in that last video meant a lot. We still had to meet all the standard requirements of grunts, trained with special units and the various corps usually just to get abused when something didn't work which was often due to operator abuse.
The other guys I think need recognition are cooks. How those guys come up with some of the meals they do under sometimes shit conditions amazes me but a hot meal with a hot drink can make life worth while.
Where are you getting the figure for 30-50k soldiers reduced on the front lines due to Wagner being removed from the battlefield? I didn't think all of Wagner went to Belarus, i thought a large number of them decided to sign up with the MOD with contracts?
What I wonder now isn't how this conflict in Ukraine will wrap up, but what the war after it will look like, and how soon will it happen?
Assume for a moment that this doesn't spiral into a world war on its own, which is an assumption I can't justify with the Nigerian, Syrian, Sudanese and Taiwanese situations all hovering about, but that I hope we can all agree is better than the alternative.
Poland takes some portion of Western Ukraine. Russia takes the rest of Ukraine, or leaves a strip completely defanged and 'protected' (as in, Protectorate) like the Rhineland in the Interwar period. How comfortable is Poland with Russia as a next-door neighbour and no buffer states to speak of in between? Conversely, how good a neighbour are they going to be to Russia? The long history of Polish-Russian relations doesn't look promising. Too, Poland will have spent whatever time they have buying and training a fully modern army. The Polish defense procurement business is booming, and with not a little money siphoned off so-called Ukrainian aid. (This is part of Ukraine's complaint, by the way. There are still tanks and artillery pieces and rounds in Europe. Poland has a lot of them, and she's keeping them. Maybe I'm wrong about the size of it, but that only pushes things out by a few years.)
Russia, for her part, will have gone through the fires of war and emerged on the other side with a large, cutting-edge, world-class professional army and the very recent proof she can take NATO and win, at least industrially.
So you have two states with historically extremely poor relations, newly large and well-funded and equipped armies, one of whom just won a conventional land-war against what it perceives as a much bigger enemy (NATO), and the other of whom probably feels like she didn't lose, it was those idiots next door who hardly count as people anyway, and she could show what a real war looks like, and it's about time to take her enemy down a peg or two.
Throw Belarus and the Baltics into that toxic brew, and the flashpoint that is Kaliningrad and its supply situation.
All this leads me to ask myself when the next war starts, and what does it look like?
'This includes a new design for an FPV drone zapper being tested on tanks, which is a small unit placed on the back of tanks and armored vehicles which disabled FPV drones in 4 channels and neutralizes them before they can make contact.'
I am amazed by all the new technology that Russia is quickly developing, but I wish that the minds being used to do this would instead be used to create things for the betterment of humanity. Just think if the trillions spent on killingree was used instead on livingree. Words made up by Buckminster Fuller. And I’m appalled by the numbers of deaths for both sides. And for what? In a hundred years none of this will matter except to the families that have lost loved ones.
Fred Kagan, BiL of Victoria Nuland who is married to the other Kagan brother thinks that Ukraine still has a chance of winning and making Russia scurry back home. It’s funny how he plans things out for Ukraine who has already been doing those things and thinking that they have a snowballs chance of winning. If you need a good laugh….
Excellent analysis. However, I expect a Victoria Nuland dirty trick of some kind, on the scale of MH-17. They will use it when they can no longer hide the collapse of the Ukrainian Army.
"The goal of this would be obvious: to force Russia into somehow over-reacting with an uncharacteristically rash use of force which could highlight Russia’s “brutality” and wring sympathy and further support for Ukraine from Western nations."
If Russia doesn't respond to attacks, the narrative will be that Russia is weak and the West must escalate.
If Russia does respond, the narrative will be that Russia is brutal and the West must escalate.
It doesn't really matter what Russia does, since Russia has no real way to affect the decisionmakers in Washington, the US and its puppets will do what they want to do.
EDIT I should have added that Russia will be depicted as brutal, regardless what Russia does. If real atrocities cannot be found, fake ones will be manufactured.
How many Ukrainians are currently training in the EU and USA? That would be a factor in determining NATO's commitment to prolonging the war.
I'd then compare that with Medvedev, in that video about Russian conscription: "The results of these and other measures of the state are obvious. According to the Ministry of Defense, from Jan 1 to Aug 3, that is, today, more than 231,000 people have signed the contract."
The above time frame amplifies the achievement and commitment.
Blinken condemning Navalny’s persecution was clown world at its best this week. The Premier League is organizing a bunch of fundraising football games for Ukraine, Putin is literally shaking!
Simplicius, you might find this article interesting as it examines how woke communism is destroying the west, and how Russia is avoiding making the same mistake.
https://sonar21.com/why-is-the-west-so-weak-and-russia-so-strong-the-role-of-human-capital-and-western-education/
Simplicius, would be great if you provided a single analysis of the Black Sea situation, and its possible futures.
I can't imagine the war lasting 5-10 years. Either there's a 'Korean' line which last decades, or Ukraine collapses because America focuses on China whilst the EU comes to terms with its new conservative governments who will look to make peace with Russia.
What would be the benefit for Ukraine allowing Poland into territories it knows they want? Nobody gives up something without self-enriching motive.
Instead of "The weak level of English among Ukrainian pilots proved to be a stumbling block for the start of their training on F-16 fighters", how about "The weak level of Ukrainian among American pilot trainers proved to be a stumbling block..." :)
David Wu relegated Scott Ritter to second place on the confidence list. Hoping that video is on Bitchute or RT so that I can embed it one of my posts.
Lira posted videos at 2am Ukrainian time, and he recorded them in daylight. I still don't have a set opinion on him. A period in prison, in pain and with your family under threat, can make people turn. I just don't know.
Simplicius, your shorter post length allows me to spend some time in the sun today :)
OK, so the old Simplicius is getting back. In this article there was practically none of that June/July "counter-offensive" Telegram circlejerk.
LOL the picture of the US Marines is the funniest thing I've seen in a very long time. Thanks Simplicius for sharing that 🤣
Another great update. The Russian communication tech upgrades is very interesting. The one thing the west is clearly very good at is intelligence. Not just battlefield recon or planning specOps, but communication and logistics Intel. Things like the Iran drone deal, or Wagner supposedly getting weapons from the NORKs. I wonder if the FSB/Russian Intel is also seeing massive upgrades in its ability to counter CIA/MI6 Intel.
Thank You, Simplicius. I was most curious about what move Wagner would make, since Prigozhin dropped the hint a few days ago It is early enough in Niger for a modest Wagner presence to be a strong deterrent to an invason. There seems to be limited local Afriican desire to invade Niger. The winds are shifting against French neo-colonialism.
Nobody really wats to be on the wrong side of history in Africa...
It's fatal, of course.
As a former EME in my country's Army the words in that last video meant a lot. We still had to meet all the standard requirements of grunts, trained with special units and the various corps usually just to get abused when something didn't work which was often due to operator abuse.
The other guys I think need recognition are cooks. How those guys come up with some of the meals they do under sometimes shit conditions amazes me but a hot meal with a hot drink can make life worth while.
"incompetence, corruption and simply disregard for people"
Whatever that is in latin i am pretty sure its ukraines driving principle
Where are you getting the figure for 30-50k soldiers reduced on the front lines due to Wagner being removed from the battlefield? I didn't think all of Wagner went to Belarus, i thought a large number of them decided to sign up with the MOD with contracts?
What I wonder now isn't how this conflict in Ukraine will wrap up, but what the war after it will look like, and how soon will it happen?
Assume for a moment that this doesn't spiral into a world war on its own, which is an assumption I can't justify with the Nigerian, Syrian, Sudanese and Taiwanese situations all hovering about, but that I hope we can all agree is better than the alternative.
Poland takes some portion of Western Ukraine. Russia takes the rest of Ukraine, or leaves a strip completely defanged and 'protected' (as in, Protectorate) like the Rhineland in the Interwar period. How comfortable is Poland with Russia as a next-door neighbour and no buffer states to speak of in between? Conversely, how good a neighbour are they going to be to Russia? The long history of Polish-Russian relations doesn't look promising. Too, Poland will have spent whatever time they have buying and training a fully modern army. The Polish defense procurement business is booming, and with not a little money siphoned off so-called Ukrainian aid. (This is part of Ukraine's complaint, by the way. There are still tanks and artillery pieces and rounds in Europe. Poland has a lot of them, and she's keeping them. Maybe I'm wrong about the size of it, but that only pushes things out by a few years.)
Russia, for her part, will have gone through the fires of war and emerged on the other side with a large, cutting-edge, world-class professional army and the very recent proof she can take NATO and win, at least industrially.
So you have two states with historically extremely poor relations, newly large and well-funded and equipped armies, one of whom just won a conventional land-war against what it perceives as a much bigger enemy (NATO), and the other of whom probably feels like she didn't lose, it was those idiots next door who hardly count as people anyway, and she could show what a real war looks like, and it's about time to take her enemy down a peg or two.
Throw Belarus and the Baltics into that toxic brew, and the flashpoint that is Kaliningrad and its supply situation.
All this leads me to ask myself when the next war starts, and what does it look like?
'This includes a new design for an FPV drone zapper being tested on tanks, which is a small unit placed on the back of tanks and armored vehicles which disabled FPV drones in 4 channels and neutralizes them before they can make contact.'
I am amazed by all the new technology that Russia is quickly developing, but I wish that the minds being used to do this would instead be used to create things for the betterment of humanity. Just think if the trillions spent on killingree was used instead on livingree. Words made up by Buckminster Fuller. And I’m appalled by the numbers of deaths for both sides. And for what? In a hundred years none of this will matter except to the families that have lost loved ones.
Fred Kagan, BiL of Victoria Nuland who is married to the other Kagan brother thinks that Ukraine still has a chance of winning and making Russia scurry back home. It’s funny how he plans things out for Ukraine who has already been doing those things and thinking that they have a snowballs chance of winning. If you need a good laugh….
👇👇👇
https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/
Excellent analysis. However, I expect a Victoria Nuland dirty trick of some kind, on the scale of MH-17. They will use it when they can no longer hide the collapse of the Ukrainian Army.