I have noticed that there is a wide range of opinions on the reasons for the Kursk incursion (and related psy-op campaign) and why things went the way they did, but some of them are practically never discussed, even though I consider them highly probable. Here is my own analysis of the incursion, based on sources, some of whom are relatively unknown RU experts:
1) I find the following theory as the most probable one regarding the reasons for this incursion. The whole idea of attacking Kursk was originally planned by the US masters as an October surprise to boost the Democratic party candidate's rating. Obviously, the situation on the front line is dire (and will be even worse by October), discrediting the foreign policy of the current US administration which seeks reelection. This October surprise would have helped to boost the narrative of the strong UKR which is capable to even strike deep into RU territory with the Western uber-weapons (yeah, just don't ask any inconvenient questions about why it's loosing on the primary front line if it's so strong, the Western media is more than capable to obscure inconvenient facts).
However, for some reason UKR went rogue and started it early. Possible explanations:
a) No time to wait as collapse of the Donbass front is imminent and the West is unwilling to supply more vehicles and weapons (with obscuring this fact by overhyping the news of F-16 delivery; BTW where are they, why they're not used?), keeping UKR on the bare minimum life support.
b) UKR leadership was worried that the plans will be leaked to Moscow and be ruined. There was a recent report in the western media (alas I forgot to save the source, I remember Simplicius quoting this) that at least two similar operations were cancelled due to American involvement—in one case they've asked to cancel the operation and in the other case the operation plans were leaked to RU.
c) (Maybe partially a reason but not standalone) UKR leadership wanted to make it coincide with the anniversary of the "Kursk" submarine disaster (August 12, 2000) which some are misrepresenting as the first Putin's disaster (well, it happened under Putin soon after he took power, but was he responsible?). And indeed, Zelensky played this thing in his speech on Aug 12 — look up "# Zelenskyy: Kursk disaster symbolized the start of Putin's rule, and now it's the end for him".
d) Probably UKR leadership simply didn't want to wait that long as the time is clearly playing against UKR in the ongoing attrition warfare and each minute reduced their chance of success.
2) Many experts while observing footage of FPV and missile strikes noticed that RU roads quality is extremely good compared to the decadent UKR countryside which we got used to see in the past two years. Some believe that it certainly paid a factor in the relatively quick road advance in the first two days as UKR was using wheeled vehicles and tried to drive as deep as possible until RU forces organized ambushes. Either way most of these advances were not an actual territory control but a game of tag to claim as many settlements as possible and help boost the TSIPSO narratives.
3) It's important to note the SMO command was not responsible for defending Kursk Oblast and securing the border (it was under guard of the FSB border service which is relatively weak armed). On more remote positions from the border there were regular military units (mostly conscripts) which are not officially engaged in the SMO and not under the command of the army group North which is dedicated to the neighboring RU Belgorod Oblast and creating the buffer area in Kharkov region of UKR (BTW, two days ago RU MoD announced that three new army groups will be organized to boost the defense of the border regions—namely Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod; better late than never?). According to the ex-colonel of RU AF Vladimir Trukhan, the first defense line in the area was organized approximately at the area which is currently holding the UKR armed forces, meaning that it's behind small towns (the biggest of which is Sudzha (population of 5000 as reported in 2024)). Why so? Big Serge mentioned in his article that the border area is very wooded in Kursk Oblast. It's also curvy. So the defense line never (not in RU nor in UKR or any country) matches the country's border line. The defense line usually goes on some distance from it, representing a less curvy line and utilizing more suitable terrain to maximize the defense capabilities. Vladimir Trukhan also noted that the civilian administration has the final say in matters of allocating land for military purposes (during peacetime), and some oddities associated with the line of defense may be due to this factor.
4) There is a conspiracy theory with people speculating whether the RU military command knew about the UKR plans but intentionally played along just to create a trap and lure the UKR forces in the new meatgrinder. Meaning that there was intentional endangering of RU citizens in the Kursk Oblast by evacuating them too late. According to the ex-colonel of RU AF Vladimir Trukhan again, it's not the case ("These are not our methods", as he said). While RU intelligence may have knew about the plans of some incursion, it was indeed organized with a high level of OPSEC and RU didn't knew the exact date and vector of the attack. "We have just missed it", Trukhan said. However, it doesn't mean that RU will not turn this tactical blunder into a strategic advantage. Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, and Zakharova already stated that URK terrorist incursion preclude any negotiations, finally putting a nail in the peace talks effort lead by China and India. And the Chinese media have indeed been spinning the narrative since the first day of the invasion that the UKR acted dishonestly and attacked RU territory, effectively starting a war on the land that had not seen bloodshed since 1943, when the German tanks previously rushed toward Russia's impenetrable defenses...
5) I believe there was a strong angle to not only damage Putin's reputation but to actually cause civilian unrest, protests (especially if the advance was more successful), and, ultimately, change of the RU top military command which, if happened, will obviously hurt RU advances on the front line as the military will need to rework the plans and it often takes weeks if not months. With this incursion there was a blatant and overwhelming psy-op campaign of TSIPSO, which included not only comments in social networks and Telegram but also calls to the people in the border towns to spread panic, and several prominent "Russian" (most of them are actually UKR origin) military bloggers either exposing themselves as UKR SBU/GUR assets or at least as useful idiots by playing along with the UKR propaganda. E.g. there is a UKR-born blogger Yuri Podolyaka with over 3 mln subscribers in Telegram (who, BTW, has a son and ex-wife still living in UKR Sumy region as he confirmed in Nov'2022 when he also said that he will do "unthinkable" to anyone who expose or endangers them; majority of the people are unaware or ignoring this fact even though he said it himself and the video is still available in his Telegram channel). Podolyaka among others exaggerated the reach of the UKR successes and pushed the narrative that the Chief of General Staff, general Valery Gerasimov, should be held responsible for the failure of preventing the Kursk incursion (recently a new major disinformation campaign started to blame general Aleksandr Lapin, commander of the army group North). The previous time such a coordinated psy-op campaign happened during the Prigozhin's mutiny (it also targeted Gerasimov as well as Shoigu, who was, BTW, not fired this year but actually raised to the Secretary of the Security Council, in place of honorable Nikolai Patrushev). This time the psy-op caused a real panic in Kurks Oblast that resulted in traffic jams on the highway to the border towns which put in danger civilians and military columns and there were some successful FPV and HIMARS strikes (which, again, people like Yuri Podolyaka used as an opportunity to blame Gerasimov and RU command in general of incompetence, totally ignoring the fact that UKR as well moving their large forces in columns (which RU presented plenty of evidence of destruction over the years and even recently even in Kursk oblast, e. g. a column of 9 vehicles just two days ago by 810th separate guards marine brigade) and even if it was a smaller column it still was stuck in traffic jam organized by TSIPSO and military bloggers who were spreading panic). The same bloggers also overhyped the idea of the imminent Kursk NPP capture, again, totally ignoring the facts (even if UKR can drive special forces there risking getting cut from the main forces, the NPP is well defended by a national guard regiment and there is no chance that UKR may hold it).
I would contest only one point -that this incursion has put a stop to the China Brazil peace plan diplomacy
VVP and Russia have their own statements to make about 'negotiating' or not (as may Ukraine, NATO etc) but this does not impact nor preclude the BRICS diplomatic effort
VVP is aware that Russia is now bound in to several large organisations that were created to bring about a multipolar world, and replace the bipolar focus of the previous (for us or against us) - as well as Joint Security alliances, in particular with China
RF may continue with the battlefield, but others are laying the ground for future peace - this is what allies are for
Agree. You have just answered the question so many always have - "Why doesn't China do anything and why does it sometimes seem that they are working against Russia?". Answer: They are allies towards one goal (a multi-nodal world) with differing foci and responsibilities.
In the crucible of the SMO, the multi-nodal world is birthing itself from the tactics & mind-set [ zero-sum; hegemonic ] of the uni-polar world, reforging those tools & formulae into a novel schema.
Had the Istanbul negotiation yielded a settlement in March 2022, it would have preempted the trajectory & calculus of the multi-nodal blueprint full-bore, dousing the crucible before the smelting process was complete
I do not understand why analysts refuse to see the obvious. Yes, Russia can destroy the Banderan army within Kursk and lock down the border. That is expensive in rubles, men and materiél and will come at the cost of destroying the larger Banderan army in Donbas.
The SMO is a war, a large war. Allowing one third of the Banderan army to sit in an empty region of Kursk and be destroyed over the next two monrhs doesn't really matter beyond western PR and short term optics.
In totality, the globe is at war and GloboHomo is getting it's unlubed ass-hole raped culturally,diplomatically, economically and militarily. The fun part is GloboHomo is raping itself, so it's not even a crime. I can't explain how GloboHomo can rape itself anymore than I can explain why the moon is made of Swiss cheese. Some shit is beyond explanation.
The China's peace plan is back on the shelf for now and using the pendulum principle everyone is waiting for Trump to roll out his peace proposal if he wins.
For Russia and China a Kamala Harris victory is better because she does not offer any peace plans. She does not raise the Ukrainian issue at all, it is not her strong point. If she comes to power, she will try to quietly throw all this Biden legacy into the trash bin.
Trump has already made Ukraine part of his election campaign; he will try to impose something on Russia. Trump will come and start convincing Russia that we should stop the war. What will Trump offer Russia to stop it? He has nothing.
It is obvious that Trump will pursue a pro-Israeli and anti-Iranian policy in the Middle East. In relation to China, he will be ardently anti-Chinese. And in relation to Russia, it will rather be a policy of pressure with the aim of breaking contacts with China and Iran. Guys, you can take all of Ukraine, we don’t care, but you must cool down in relations with Iran and China.
If the Democrats come to power, then perhaps there will be no tough confrontation with Iran, they are trying to put the brakes on the Iranian-Israeli conflict which is also the Russian and Chinese position. And they know how to negotiate with China. This is good for the world. Who needs a world war that could have a nuclear character in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region?
If Trump comes to power, it will create big risks for Russia and for the whole world. Kamala Harris is a puppet who memorizes her speeches. That’s good for Russia and China because they are dealing with an understandable machine that has already been outplayed in the Ukrainian crisis, both politically and logistically. Kamala Harris will simply cut the budgets for Ukraine, and this topic will be forgotten, just like Afghanistan was forgotten.
I would think Biden is just a tool used by the same masters as Harris is. Those masters are amongst others the military industrial complex. That's one reason for the war. What Harris says is irrelevant, she is an idiot, and the policy under her rule will be independent of what she is able to communicate.
So if it's the same masters, why would the policy change much by changing figure heads?
I don't believe Trump is interested in war anywhere. Our problems are cascading toward the bottom faster than people realize. Even the ardent Rachel Maddow fans will realize we are shit-boxxed by the end of October.
As usual, you explain the bigger picture contained within the frame using no more or less than the words necessary.
Allow me to put in my two phoenigs (sic).
The WEF and it's minions, particularly the US Senate pawns and the executive suite, do not want peace. Probably half of the American people don't want peace. We are a mentally retarded and debauched people that has been thoroughly propagandized since 1945 and the nuke option is on our table. In other words, the world is probably fucked.
Vlad K, you made exellent points and correct conclusions, my friend. Sources of information are very important. Col.Vladimir Truhan is highly educated, very intelligent & experienced military professional that one can really learn from ; he pairs well with Andrei Martyanov's expertise ( for anyone interested & English speaking - I'd highly recommend Andrei's blog , his books & u-tube channel ). In Russian media and the sphere of bloggers there are soooo many of those like Podoliaka, Montian , Zvinchuk( Rybar), Tsargrad , Cassad, TwoMajors( Два Майора) & ect., &ect., and all those journa-whores pretending to be military " experts" who have no idea what they're talking about, all these bs pushers & " critics " of Russian MOD & Russian leaders ,--- it's nauseating and infuriating ! So many times these people have been cought on lies and still they have thousands & even millions subscribers ,-- it's rediculous. Simplicius must thoroughly check his Telegram sources before he presents their statements to his audience as facts and forms his own opinion. After all, we know how much money already TSIPSO recieved last year to work in Russian info space with " military experts" & journos- bloggers. One of very few trully good journalists out there who has a very good understanding of the events is Marat Khairullin who lives and works among the Russian fighters in Donbass , -- he has exellent reports some of which are translated to English.
Martyanov isn't the Russian administration, so your comparison is far off the mark. No, Andrei does not admit to any Russian mistakes, and in fact goes out of his way to mock those who do. This includes earlier this year when Andrei decided to pick on Simplicius on two occasions.
kit klarenberg on X has made a case for that fact that this was a British operation intended among other things to get the US to allow its weapons to be used in RU proper i.e. presenting it with a fait accompli similar to Israel killing Haniyeh. the dims would prefer that Ukraine not be an issue at all in the campaign - too many other things to defend - with the risk that an 'October surprise' could backfire. the validity of his thesis is reinforced by the US blocking the use of Storm Shadows in Kursk as reported by the Times. he also has a great article on tony blair & kosovo on the 25th anniversary "Top secret papers reviewed by The Grayzone reveal Tony Blair demanded strikes on civilian targets in Yugoslavia days before NATO attacked them." while the 'common wisdom' is that blair was bush's poodle on Iraq the record on other events seems to be the opposite. remember 'Russiagate' effectively started in the UK.
Fumbles alright. Huge oil depot got hit, still losing territory in kursk, and a main ferry got sunk. How many terrorist attacks is Russia going to allow to happen before they fight a real war?
Seriously, it seems obvious by now that even most well-intended Westerners can't hold it long enough in them to do proper war. Must be some cultural design flaw that Putin exploits so well. I blame Hollywood in part. Or should I be thankful?
If over 200 FABs a day and over 2000 AFU casualties a day is not a real war, IDK what to tell you. It far exceeds the exaggerated losses of the sunk ferry, destroyed oil depot, and many other pinprick attacks. And Kursk is another meatgrinder for AFU reserves.
If you expect Russia to engage in a war that you can easily understand and which logic you can easily follow, I'm sorry to disappoint you, but neither the General Staff nor Mr. Putin owe anything to anyone. They will prosecute a war in a way, which only historians will be able to fully appreciate. And if it was another way, Russia would have lost long ago.
Ukraine isn't losing 2,000 troops a day. Get out of here with that. This shits went on long enough and the Russian civilians are paying for it. Russia gets embarrassed on a weekly basis now. The west knows there will be zero repercussions. There's many Russian journalists that agree with me. Fight a real war or gtfo.
"isn't losing 2,000 troops a day" — and the colossal military graveyards don't appear all over UKR, and there are no signs of the AFU degradation (e.g. when companies have only 10-15 troops left), and mobilization is going crazy not because they need to replenish the losses, and Russian 200 FABs a day don't hit anyone, and UKR still have a lot of Soviet vehicles and don't have to use a huge variety of western-produced vehicles, and UKR don't play in only degrading defense for over a year now (except Kursk hail mary incursion which turned into another meatgrinder and will end rather soon), and so on and so on. Perhaps you're misinformed or just don't want to analyze the facts...
Regarding "Russian journalists", well, I have news to break. The vast majority of them are not journalists but just bloggers (many were "expert" virologists during COVID pandemic, ha-ha) and RU has freedom of speech, so they can say whatever they want. Most of them are just hysterical morons (or straightforward SBU/GUR plants promoting TSIPSO narratives, there some as well). The Western media are happy to reprint them and present them as authoritative source. Well, misinforming the opponent is a good strategy, isn't it?
This right here itself is pathetic and embarrassing.
"In the past month alone, Ukraine has dealt serious damage to at least three Russian airfields—Lipetsk, Morozovsk, and the Marinovka base in Volgorod just yesterday. Then there have been the new oil terminal hits, with the Rostov one a few days ago being a particularly grievous example. Now they’ve destroyed, what’s being called by some, one of the last functioning oil ferries in Crimea with a hit last night in Kavkaz."
If you quoted one part, perhaps you will read the rest of the Simplicius analysis and start thinking. Or, if you believe UKR is so strong and capable, just sit and wait until RU collapses. As Putin once said, "we will catch a cold at your funeral" :)
G'day Vlad, you will get very tired trying to reason with a troll and it also is very unrewarding. There are about half a dozen patrolling this site and Jerm is one of them.
Jerm, you forgot to add that : Russians run out of misiles, Russians fight with shovels , Russians get chips from the washing machines for their Kinzhals &ect, and ukies already won 33 times.
If you think about it - RU forces are advancing only on one front - Pokrovsk direction. Everywhere else the front is static.
Compare that to the start of Operation Bagration, where a multi-thousand km front was being simultaneously assaulted in multiple directions and Kharkov/Odessa/etc were rapidly taken by the Red Army.
***An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
How are they not fighting a realwar? They have hit Kiev and Ukraine with everything they have barring the reserves held in place for war with NATO.
Would it be nice to have such an industrial military complex that missiles were unlimited? Absolutely, but that is a manufacturing/logistics issue that takes time to rectify.
The west has faced many repercussions including a couple thousand dead western mercenaries, approaching 1 trillion spent, increasing destabilization at home, increased inflation due to disrupted supply routes and geopolitical turmoil.
Those Russian journalists might as well be westerners, using juvenile terms such as "red lines". Chest beating chicken hawk neocons and slightly slicker neolibs.
Shooting down western ISR? That is a valid argument, but pretending it is some sort of logical given is silly and sophomoric.
Russia obviously doesn't want war with NATO at this point, and why should they when they are winning? Piecemeal approach is best.
Russia is fighting a real war, to say otherwise is dumb. There are valid criticisms of some methods, sloppiness in the Russian Miltary structure. There was still a lot of corruption and geriatric thinking going in, but the overall plan, general execution and leadership have all been really solid.
I think there are those who bought into the hype about the relative power of the Russians vis a vis NATO, and that has led to a general misunderstanding of what the reality actually is. Thusly the screamers..."Russia just needs to kick more ass, why are they not?".
I'm mocking anyone who thinks that they are smarter than the Russians winning this war. Is it not obvious ? I'm am laughing hysterically at all the armchair generals, the same ones who gaze over their fat decrepit bodies when the 'game' is on and scream "That guy can't (run/skate/catch) ! Get him the fuck off the (field/ice) !!) Just before they start getting winded climbing the basement stairs for another beer. The ones that think if only they were running this war, it would have been over in a day or two. ................................ Now... I thought we were both part of the same wolf pack Memento. You let me down Comrade.
Yes…Russia should slaughter more Ukrainian civilians and destroy their country so that people who don’t understand what a special military operation is can stop seeing Russia achieve the goals that Putin laid out in his speech when he declared that SMO. Maybe some people here should read it.
**An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
Everything you state is true, however you leave out 1 essential aspect: perception.
Yes, Putin/Russia conducts the war its own way, but if the Russian population's perception regarding success shifts, then your Mr. Putin will have a problem on his hands, regardless of his battlefield success.
Invading Russia is not going to make the Russians want to quit - these people burnt Moscow to the ground to deny it to Napoleon. the fought Hitler to a standstill when he had the best army the world had ever seen. They don't have a lot of quit in them.
The opposition to Putin comes from people who want to raze Kiev to the ground, not from people who want to let NATO take over . You've completely misread the situation, imo.
Very true, UA and US are trying desperately to provoke Russia into a full blown war in order to justify to the EU and US population a NATO intervention in Ukraine.
As the saying goes "death by a thousand cuts" and it starts with one cut. One should not discount such pinprick attacks. Indeed, the fact that they happen is a weakness of FSB and SVR intelligence.
Let me remind you how the NKVD managed to infiltrate most of German sabotage schools and caused many saboteur groups to be destroyed by teaching them wrong information. That's not even mentioning that the NKVD/OGchP that managed to catch many German saboteur groups as they landed on Soviet territory (that was much larger than now). I doubt that such sabotage and drone strikes on Russian territory would have been possible under Soviet command.
For one they could shoot down the reaper drones over the black sea instead of being scared of the west. They could be hitting Kiev and ukraine MUCH harder. Quu5 allowing the west to cross red line after red line. If this shit show going on is a real war then I don't know what to tell them
Perhaps you're unaware, but RU also does plenty of flights over international waters, right next to the shores of UK, US, and other NATO countries. And RU is the adult in the room which intend to save itself and the world, not burn it in the nuclear fire. Besides, the effect of the Reaper drones operation is exaggerated.
Regarding "striking harder"—well, RU does use plenty of FABs and they're extremely deadly. Why not strike Kiev with more missiles—RU already destroyed plenty of military facilities there so I believe there is not much left to hit (and RU is not interested in killing Zelensky and his goons—RU doesn't want to see someone more competent taking their place). UKR doesn't put much military production in this region as they would be vulnerable. RU does hit plenty of other targets regularly, e.g. just yesterday new targets in Odessa, but UKR is tight-lipped about any losses.
You may be right about not shooting down the reaper over Black Sea, as Russia's own flights are also in internationational skies. How about giving lethal weapons to Hoothis? The west has long been using its puppets to kill Russians, why could not Russia start doing the same?
Difference is Russia isn't doing terrorist attacks when they do it. Every time a reaper is in the black sea they are doing it for a terrorist attack. And Russia knows it but they're too scared to shoot it down
Your juvenile petulant outrage won't stop the Russians from taking a cold and measured approach to this conflict. If you want unhinged degenerates then support Israel. Just look at what fighting a war with emotions and spite gets you.
I swear some of you Pro Russian folks are emotionally unstable charlatans. 🤦🏼♂️
I'd say the many Russian civilians and soldiers that have died and will be dying to the new US approved strikes in Russian territory would agree with you. The theatre massacre should have been the last straw. But keep being ok with that
No offence, Jerm, but really,what exactly do you know of warfare and of Russian Art of War, ha? Do you have any military education ? Experience? Do you know what military strategy is, do you how to calculate balance of forces, do you know how much , for instance , mathematics involved in it ? Russia 's General Stuff is fricken older than America as a country. You type here such a rediculous crap from your couch that it looks like a 5 years old does it, ffs. Too much Hollywood and Western BS is in your head. Educate yourself or stop already.
What Jerm means is that they are fighting the war he and many have been narrativized to believe--ie a hollywood war. Its pathetic really- too many get their"knowledge" from western movies and "educational" propaganda
Those many include Western military academies and Pentagon . They just don't know what strategy is, they don't know what the real war is. They are not even on the same level as Russia.
>How is not Russia fighting a real war? What are they holding back? What would Russia fighting a real war look like?
As a starter:
1) Take out Ukronazi leadership
2) Shut down the trains (and thus AFU logistics)
3) Shut down the grid
4) Block transport connections between Ukraine and Poland and Romania.
Those four steps can be carried out in a single missile strike within the span of a couple hours, and will ensure winning the war within six months of being taken.
Putin is in on NWO/WEF scam and like Zelensky, Idea is eliminate young men who are strong enough to resist it. War is not meant to be won just kill one anothers young men and the two Jewish presidents are facilitating that.. Then They'll be moving hundreds of millions of Africans Indians and central Asians in Ukraine and Russia to alleviate poverty/warming in coming years and to work Blackrocks properties of course.
It gonna be funny when Ukrainian and Russians supporters realize their support was all for nothing if not so tragic.
Such a BS about Putin's mother being Jewish !😂 And people who don't know jack dreck about Slavic philology & language keep spreading this crap , it's annoying ,damn it . Putin's mother name was Maria Ivanovna Shelomova/ Ше'ломова with an accent on the first syllable. Her father's name was Ivan ShElomov . Not Solomon , not Shlomo and has NOTHING to do with the hebrew name Solomon what so ever. Last name Shelomova is pure Russian and has a root in the Old Slavic word ШЕЛОМ( shElom) with the accent on the first syllable, the later form of this Slavic word is ШОЛОМ ( shOlom) and in modern Russian is ШЛЕМ ( shlem) --- all of which mean HELMET, the one that ancient Russian warriors used to were. Look at the pictures of that helmet / shelem/shelom/ shlem. President Putin roots are Russian all the way on both sides of his parents, Russian peasants actually from the region of Tver'. No Solomons there, not one.Kapish ? Good. Vladimir Lenin had Jewish grandpa though, Putin has no Jews in his blood. If anything Putin might have Tatar blood like lots of Russians do after Tatar-Mongol invasion centuries ago.
The west has now authorized ukraine to strike within Russia. These weapons used for this should be destroyed before they even reach ukraine. But they won't. And the citizens and soldiers will suffer because it.
"JUST IN: 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine will soon be able to attack 'any part' of Russia."
But ukies have been using those weapons all this time anyway without authorisation . Also ,clown Zelensky isn't even a president anymore according to Ukraine's constitution.
What you mean I think is start throwing nuclear bombs around. You and everyone else who takes this same line.
Let's get it straight:
. nuclear weapons are going to kill civilians wholesale, no doubt about it.
. nuclear weapons invite a similar response which could easily lead to the deaths of millions.
. there is no NEED for nuclear weapons.
However there ARE things the Russian military machine could do. They were exposed at Kharkiv time. They were exposed by Progozhin. They are exposed now.
But think: most all of these things are problems because of historic facts: the corruption and inefficiency etc. that was endemic in USSR times and right after.
AND that historic rottenness is still around everywhere. It is the 'environment' within which Putin has to operate.
I think he's doing a great job.
And he could use some reliable help and some understanding of the truth of the situation.
Not more jeers, boos and catcalls from the cheap seats.
There was no need for nuclear weapons until that first NATO strike on the New Year festivities in Belgorod on December 30th.
After it was not answered, NATO continued to escalate, and there was no answer to any of those subsequent escalations.
Now Russia has been invaded by NATO, and there is still not answer.
So what do we have in terms of precedents that have been established?
1) NATO can fire missiles into the center of Russian cities and kill civilians whenever the psychopaths there feel like it, and all that the Kremlin will do is launch verbal protests from Zakharova plus yet another reiteration of its firm position that it will not be baited by "provocations"
2) NATO can fire missiles and drones at Russian military bases deep inside Russia, destroying ammo depots and airframes, and again there will be no response
3) NATO can invade Russia, once again with zero consequences for NATO.
How do you reestablish deterrence after you have allowed those violations to become established precedents?
Nukes are the only option left, and even a demonstrative strike may not be sufficient, whole countries will have to be wiped out to reinstill fear in the rest.
I will do you a once off favour at great cost in time and effort to myself. I'll print your post and intersperse my responses. If the system will allow such a long post. If it won't it'll get terminated abruptly without explanation.
====================
>there is no NEED for nuclear weapons.
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Wrong.
There was no need for nuclear weapons until that first NATO strike on the New Year festivities in Belgorod on December 30th.
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My reply: That did NOT create a need.
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After it was not answered, NATO continued to escalate, and there was no answer to any of those subsequent escalations.
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My reply: The answer has always been there you simply fail to see or acknowledge or accept it.
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Now Russia has been invaded by NATO, and there is still not answer.
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My reply: There is a man's answer: 'Don't try to distract me, child'.
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So what do we have in terms of precedents that have been established?
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My answer: Persistent manifestation of principled and effective adult response.
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1) NATO can fire missiles into the center of Russian cities and kill civilians whenever the psychopaths there feel like it, and all that the Kremlin will do is launch verbal protests from Zakharova plus yet another reiteration of its firm position that it will not be baited by "provocations"
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My reply: Of course NATO can do whatever it likes. Just like murderers can and do.
But 'all that the Kremlin will do is launch verbal protests' is ludicrous in view of massive progress in Donbas on the one hand, refusal to take the bait on the other and overall manifestation of an army that knows what it is doing.
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2) NATO can fire missiles and drones at Russian military bases deep inside Russia, destroying ammo depots and airframes, and again there will be no response
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My reply: The allies (Donbas and Russia) have been and will continue to fire drones and missiles wherever and whenever they wish into any Kiev Ukraine territory they choose. It's not that the Allies need to respond. It is that this is the belated and feeble response of Kiev (meaning NATO and USA), enfeebled as they are.
3) NATO can invade Russia, once again with zero consequences for NATO.
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My reply: The consequences are death. Once again it is not a question of the Allies to come up and present 'consequences' - these are the consequences of the Allies steady destruction in the battlefield theater of all that Kiev Ukraine had (long gone) and all that USA could offer ( nearly gone) and all that NATO had (gone, to all intents and purposes). This is the consequence that the Allies bear. They choke this snake to death and it whips around in its agony. It is for the Allies to just keep on choking.
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How do you reestablish deterrence after you have allowed those violations to become established precedents?
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My reply: Deterrence? What deterrence do you mean? And what do you mean 'reestablish' ? What/when was established?
Let's stick with the most obvious: presumed topic of this thread: invasion of Russia.
What 'deterrance' was there? There was NONE. Bar sloth, organisation etc. Because that was the start of all this. Do you not know?
They work slowly. They plan decades ahead if necessary.
Do you not know? The plan is to 'Balkanise' Russia and then pick off the individual states.
You understand 'Balkanise' ? To break up into little pieces each one thinking themselves natural and necessarily separate entities. Usually on ethnic lines. Doesn't matter to the exploiters. What matters to them is that you're small, new, impoverished and in need of all kinds of help.
So that's the plan. To 'pick off' these new 'Balkan States' by giving them 'Aid', money, loans, arms, infrastructure investment etc. Get the idea?
And 'they' - USA we're talking here mainly but UK close behind and generally global (i.e. couldn't really be said to 'belong' to any particular nation) mega financial interests - anticipate and will reap massive profits from this.
Now that's what this is about.
And that's what needs 'deterring'.
And by god it is being 'deterred'.
They see they've shot themselves in the foot big time.
They all see it. Except the Western politicians who must be by any measure the most pathetically stupid and amoral creatures on the planet.
Everyone else sees it.
Everyone outside the Western world, that is.
And those within the Western world with an ounce of intelligence.
They are thoroughly 'deterred'. They no longer think to Balkanise Russia.
They will be seeking ways to maximise profit by doing business with Russia.
Nukes are the only option left, and even a demonstrative strike may not be sufficient, whole countries will have to be wiped out to reinstill fear in the rest.
These are all tragic but ultimately insignificant pinpricks that are irrelevant to the geopolitical objectives Russia/China etc are seeking globally, as well as the specific objectives Russia is seeking in Ukraine.
So Jerm, I only have 1 question for you. Why are you sitting and typing from your little safe space, you should be leading the AZOV brigade into the battle and proving just how wonderful it is to be on the winning side?
Why would I want to fight for a terrorist organization that I don't support, you cuck? Just because I'm calling out russias cowardice doesn't mean I support ukraine. Nice clown take though
Then you should call that obscure Russian genius Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov and his team , call another genius Belousov and teach them what to do. Call Sergey Shoigu, call Sergey Lavrov . Heck, call straight up Putin and teach him , oh wise Jerm " with an IQ of a room temperature" how to run a country like Russia ( that you know zero about !) , because Putin is not reshaping the whole world right before our eyes the way you think he should.
While Putin wants to freed the Donbass and its associate oblasts, he doesn't want to kill the Ukrainian civilians. Now that's a real problem and he is working through it. The US on the other hand with help from Zelensky and his crew couldn't care less how many Ukrainian soldiers are killed.
An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
interesting. Thanks for that. Will pass it on. There's much tallk about Russia not doing anything about the attacks inside Russia. But I agree that the main object is the SMO and that is going smoothly, and has been given an opening because of this asymmetrical situation in Kursk and oil tanks. Rather off topic but surprising is that Modi has just be in Kiev and photographed hugging Zelensky - WTF ?? How does Russia feel about that inside BRICS ?
Modi went to Moscow a few weeks ago—it was his first visit after reelection. Modi and India are not an enemy to Zelensky and Ukraine so they can hug and kiss and do whatever they want. And Russia will only agree that it's fine—Russia promotes multi-polar world and non-interference in the affairs of other states. Exactly the thing India is doing now. Another question is why exactly Modi doing this and what will result from it. One thing is certain though—India didn't and will not engage in sanctions, and it will continue increasing trade with Russia for mutual benefits. How does Zelensky feel about this?
Indian here. India's foreign policy under Modi has finally matured to the point of looking out for the country's interests over vague principles. Thus India maintains relations with Saudi Arabia (Sunnis) AND Iran (Shias) to keep the oil flowing; it has defence contracts and equipment from Israel while also making generic statements about the Palestine conflict without picking sides - and has historically been using Soviet military systems but now has also started buying a few Western ones. As others have said, it's the sort of foreign policy any sane country would have.
Morality has nothing to do with it. Ask the Americans, alleged allies of India but who continued to fund Pakistan, long responsible for fomenting terrorism in India, even after it was found they had been sheltering bin Laden. Or take any part of American foreign policy based on their exceptionalism bullshit narrative, invading other countries with impunity in the name of spreading democracy. International politics is everyone for themselves.
Sure, "Saint"... I'm sure you have never had a TRUE friend....
In the immediate aftermath of the USSR’s breakup, the Soviet banking system was dismantled and catastrophically restructured, as policymakers heeded the advice of American banking experts. As the economy went into a freefall, the ruble, now no longer supported by state regulations, spiraled into oblivion on the free market. The spot exchange rate at that point was 488 rubles per US dollar. The states that owed debts to USSR’s successor, Russia, either paid them back at extremely favorable market rates or refused to pay at all, citing the cessation of the USSR as a legal entity.
India on the other hand, under the leadership of then-Prime Minister Narsimha Rao and Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, finalized a rupee-ruble deal where the ruble was artificially valued at a thousand times more than its current market value. Therefore, the exchange rate was pegged not at the prevailing 488 rubles/dollar but at 0.78 rubles/dollar - the rate which existed in late 1989. Despite facing a balance of payments crisis with critically low foreign exchange reserves, New Delhi sought the full repayment of its 9.9 billion ruble debt in a manner which was favorable to the nascent Russian Federation.
Honestly, Russia and India seem to have a good relationship. The screen name is a reference to something you wouldn’t understand. As for the personal insult, shove it up your ass.
zelensky like a dead man walking. I would not care less what zelensky thought of it but I wonder what Putin thought of it. its treacherous behavior even if it doesn't get called out but BRICS and the perfect world suffers from it And Putin didn't think much of Israel for suppllying Ukraine with weapons. Maybe Modi wants to sell weapons to Ukraine ? I have no idea but that would bring trouble, I'm sure. I don't know - how can you be a partner to someone who stabs you in the back ?
It's your point of view. RU doesn't consider it a treacherous behavior at all. Just re-read my comment. I'm Russian and I know well it's the point of view that RU foreign policy experts are expressing. Modi paid Moscow a highly respected visit right after reelection and, well, we can imagine Putin discussed UKR affairs in a great detail. And I cannot imagine Putin saying (or expressing in any other way) anything among the line "don't talk with my enemy". It would be silly.
Your problem is that you think as you were likely raised in the West - that the entire world is a zero sum game - you are either with us or against us. Your people in general have lost all knowledge and strength of real diplomacy or what negotiations and give-and-take efforts are all about. It's not your fault - it's the box you live in and it's difficult to get out of it. But you need to try.
Exactly - RF and India signed extensive agreements recently - and, after all, are the founder members of BRICS
Because of India's membership of the US led Quad, and other collaborations, various US elements have been claiming that Modi is acting on behalf of the US, something the US can not claim for the China peace plan
Also this allows Ukraine to claim that Inida is working with them for peace
All such claims are, sort of, true, peace serves all sides and it serves everyone to claim they are working towards it -
In the hegemon's uni-polar approach, one coerces, thwarts & blockades.
The essence of BRICS+ is that of the non-aligned: each country stays out of the other's affairs.
India is free to conduct r'ships which align w/ its sovereignty. Ditto Russia. Obviously commencing the SMO in the first place was a big test of how committed the original BRICS members were to Russia's freedom to exercise its own sovereignty. Passed w/ flying colors.
BRICS+, therefore, has strengthened internally as a result of acing the test
You realize that large quantities of Indian 155mm shells have been in the hands of the AFU for quite some time now?
How did that happen?
Meanwhile Russia has many billions in rupees (once trade was switched from dollars to national currencies) that it has no use for, but the Indian government somehow never thought to mobilize its own substantial MIC to help the Russian war effort and repay that debt?
Make that make sense to me in the context of the BRICS, please...
The Kursk AFU offensive is a "woke" insignificant maneuver destined to yield a "woke" disastrous outcome strategically. The AFU Kursk offensive is a failed plan resulting in huge losses as Russian forces continue to destroy soldiers and war materials. Alexander Mercouris and Big Serve think the AFU Kursk invasion is doomed to fail and so do I. Russia is winning where it counts. This conflict is not a media event that can be staged and manipulated because the only thing that matters is decided on the battlefield where Russia dominates. Everything else is irrelevant and inconsequential. And, if NATO steps in, I predict this war will escalate drawing in China, North Korea, and or some other country into what will be known as World War 3. And we have a front-row seat to a spectacle the world has never known. Prepare for War. https://youtu.be/VE03Lqm3nbI
I agree with the analysis that this operation is and will be a military failure but I don't think that is the objective. However taking the military side first I posited on MoA the question of whether Ukraine would be in a militarily better situation if the advance continued say for another 25km? Clearly not as it would lose many men and assets achieving such a thing and have a longer line to defend, and allow the RF to deploy even more troops which cannot be deployed in the SMO areas (ie units with conscripts).
The UAF is on its last legs and this is a PR victory, taking possibly its last reserves and shoving them into a fire sack. Sure they rolled over a light screening force of Border Guards but looking at the analysis above seem now to be outnumbered c 2 or 3 to 1 by formations of the Russian Army. However in PR terms it has been a great success - the Russians appear to have been rattled, NATO is encouraged and the western press tell us that Ukraine can still win. All before the election. Add this to attacks on Russian infrastructure and there might be a hope in some quarters that this might encourage Russia to negotiate on NATO terms. [ha ha].
But what was the option? Engage the Russia Army in a stand up fight in Donbas that was comprehensively destroying the UAF? So short of some sort of political surrender, this maybe was the Ukraine's only and best option. And there is still talk of NATO getting dragged in - that is formally to the shooting war. Now wiser heads must know that leads to WW3 but wisdom is in short supply just now. However continued escalation by NATO (and this is not a Z initiative) might have its objective of "scaring" the Russians to the peace table. I think the Russians are well past that point. Or maybe just a PR operation to keep the money flowing.
An ok news regurgitation and interesting technical details but a sort of overly conservative reading of the overall situation. The Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and other fronts are collapsing rapidly. Also, I saw today that Ukraine made no progress in Kursk and lost a couple of villages there... uh oh. I smell serious NATO desperation. The Kursk gambit is a military failure. Most knowledgeable sites are reporting big NATO losses there every day. I'd trade that for some PR any day. I wonder whether they can hold out there for a few months. They were apparently a major portion of NATO's best in ukraine.... getting chopped up in a pocket while the center in Donetsk and Luhansk is being bashed in.
Also, some sites reported buildups of NATO/ukrainian troops in the Kherson region and in Odessa and Nikolaev. The Russians apparently expect another NATO attempt at an offensive toward Crimea. Russia hit Odessa and Nikolaev with missile strikes. I'd fully expect them to try some desperate offensive there with all of the scraped together resources they can muster. However, if they do attempt it and it fails, they may be done.
Ukraine has no recourse but to continue feeding more troops into a cauldron-sized black hole which the Russians have now begun to shape & manage. They are kettling the AFU.
In this, a losing gambit, the OTAN mercs & the AFU had a Plan A but not a Plan B.
Didn't they learn the first time? what I love is just how many US/NATO troops are going to be part of this cauldron--captured and then trade bait--perfect right before the election.
With the Ukrainian army in the south reduced to little more than infantry with lightly armoured wheeled vehicles and civilian cars, without the cover of the fortified urban areas and hills, a winter offensive over the steppe may prove very successful. Especially with no heating or electricity for the Ukrainians, and probably not enough winter equipment. The majority press-ganged Ukrainian soldiers may also just be happy to either surrender or go AWOL (the numbers of which have been jumping lately). While the civilian population fights the press-gangers in the cold and dark.
Another consideration comes to mind: w/ the percentage of OTAN mercs involved in Kursk & the quantity of OTAN-supplied weaponry deployed now against Russians on Russian soil, OTAN is more publicly & explicitly fighting this war than ever before.
That is to say, a select few OTAN members actually table-topped this invasion. The UK no doubt led the charge, w/ enthusiastic support from the U.S. But Scholz has said he knew nothing about the Kursk planning, for instance.
If this is true, that most OTAN members probably were not enfranchised, I wonder what toll this takes on the vaunted OTAN unity.
It may well be that the UK & the U.S. & the always-eager Ukrainians hijacked this venture independently of the alliance, assuming that OTAN of course would go readily along. A radical escalation of this type may not be at all what the other members, who believed they had joined on to a defensive alliance, would have allowed or willingly chosen. ]
For example, it is passingly strange to see troops in Kursk sporting Wehrmacht helmets, summoning up the most fiendish aspects of Germany's wartime past as they taunt & harass elderly villagers in Kursk. It is surreal, moreover, that an assortment of nationalities--U.S, Brits, Poles, Ukrainians--can coalesce into a singular focus without teasing up their own latent tribal loyalties. They fight Russians on Russian soil & speak a multitude of languages: the Russians speak as one.
Public comments aside, it is difficult not to feel tensions simmer in OTAN. Hegemonic *peace* is taking more of a toll on the alliance than the efforts to prosecute this war, and that's saying something. After 31 months, the provocations aren't working. The escapades are non-strategic.
It's Sandhurst's handwriting all over the place indeed, including reappearance of Challengers. I won't get into finer details, but this is a trademark UK operation, so when other alliance members claim to be in the dark, there might be actually more truth to that than one might expect.
Truth be told, I can, but I'm not hosting my own Substack here and I lack the determination of the likes of John Galtsky who seems to be relentless in his ability to explain stuff. And there's a lot of explaining to do. So in the end, I can't be arsed. But I'll give you hints. Look up whom did Orban visit during his shuttle diplomacy voyage, then take notes of each time Challenger tanks appeared on the front, then - when was the last time an Indian leader visited post-Soviet Kiev.
Basically, if you draw the map correctly, you'll get a contour of UK's banishment from the negotiation table and subsequent return there once it acquired some bargaining chips. This is all Kursk is about, really.
Lol imagine thinking that any NATO country has agency.
They don't when it comes to going against US interest.
I think of NATO as satrapies that are forced to send a levy to their Suzerain when called upon. Any attempts to go their own way will result in invasion or regieme change.
Shurygin studied in Lvov (UKR) and he's a known populist b'shitter. FABs, TOS, and bullets are as deadly now as when there is a "real" war, isn't it? He's just unhappy that it's not declared as one and RU prefers attrition warfare instead of doing it the Ukraine way (right, jumping into meatgrinders). It's a real war but nobody will declare it as this will cause a serious impact on trade, economy, international affairs, and other matters. UKR didn't declare a war yet it certainly fights for its survival. RU economy is booming, salaries growing much faster than the inflation rate, people are supporting Putin like never before, and Kursk terrorist incursion only fortified opinion that the SMO was completely justified and Putin did the right thing. Of course you will hear a lot of fringe opinions but please note that there is an ongoing psy-op campaign by TSIPSO and 6th column which are either SBU/GUR plants or useful idiots (I've elaborated about this in my analysis in my other large comment).
Eastern Ukraine? Outside of the Pokrovsk direction the front is static. I have my doubts about Pokrovsk being that big a deal as we are told. Likely it will be more of the same.
Russia is advancing all along the front. See Brian Berletic's latest New Atlas discussion of what are Ukrainian maps showing the advances- so not Russian propaganda. But it is measured, deliberate, moving to a plan designed to attrit Ukrainian resistance. There is no point Russia taking territory in a blast, which will just become the subject of constant re-engagements. That would be exhausting. Ukraine, Scipio, is not just being beaten. As a fighting force, it is being wiped out.
The Germans got wiped out as a force during WW2 once Operation Bagration started. In a year or so Soviet forces were in Poland having started in Ukraine.
That is true progress and attriting enemy forces.
Sure, Russia is moving with minor changes at the Front, with no real progress anywhere outside Pokrovsk.
Compare the progress to the first weeks of the War and now - the Front has stabilized. While I used to think like you, events in Kursk have made me rethink my position.
Alright tell me where are the offensives similar to Operation Bagration happening along the entire Front, outside Pokrovsk? There seems to be minor changes in the front only.
There is constant progress by the Russian, constant and on several directions. And if you zoom out -- it looks like a beutiful dance called Russian Art of War There is the book like that by Jaques Baud, very educational for some one like " Scipio Africanus".
I have read Jacques Baud. While I agree with him that the West misunderstands Russia, I am skeptical (especially after Kursk) that the Russian way of war is anything special.
Had this been the Soviet Union, there would have been no questions in my mind. But unfortunately, it is not.
No. The west is fighting Putin, because it is always weirdly personal for this brittle hegemon. Just like they had it in for Assad. Where is Assad now?
Russia and Syria are not comparable, economically, politically, or indeed spiritually. But you did not raise a state, you raised a person. That is how the west reduces everything to something it thinks it can manage or at any rate, appear to manage. It tries to turn a conflict it is losing, into a claim for a specific bleeding head. That Bash, was my point.
In Syria case, they demonised Assad and ended up ruining the country and punishing the people. They are trying to do the same to Russia. It is an identical playbook, except that Russians have slightly easier time getting visas to EU/US
With Syria, the template of how to fend off a malign hegemon was inchoate still, merely a prototype--if even--of what this SMO has fleshed itself out to be. An annealing had to happen.
These 31 months have been a tortured discovery of how to fight this war. One side rises to the intelligence, truly comprehends the method--the other doesn't. It's as if Russia's grasp has quickened in direct correlation to how Ukraine's grasp has slackened.
When OTAN-mercs & the AFU tried to change the subject w/ the Kursk incursion, Russia of course addressed the situation, but the focus of Russia's fight stayed steadily on the Donbass objective.
An odd battlefield alchemy is coming about. The impurities are burning away.
Ukieland aka PMC Open Air Conc Lager's job is to trigger balkanization, sorry, "decolonization" of Rus. They are not fighting Putin, their task is to cause the break up of Rus.
Been said publicly in many places, heck some ukie even said they would repay their debts with Rus oil and fur and diamonds.
Even Z-anons are finally waking up. Putin was installed by West and of course he's doing their bidding which is kill as many young virile slaves as possible so we can NWO the place. Just wait and watch.
The ball is Russia's advance to take the whole of the Donbas. It is not going to be deflected from this as it can deal full on with the other issues at its own pace.
Meanwhile Kursk draws Ukrainian resource away from Kiev. Western propaganda is blinding its people to the fact that Ukraine is about to lose all the valuable stuff the west leveraged to nosebleed heights to fund this appalling SMO of its own, and has now doomed Kiev, meaning a massive new tide of west-heading refugees, with Zelenskiiy holed up in London just where he is not wanted at all, and all this will have happened while western propaganda was rattling around in some meaningless territory on the Russian border threatening to chuck bombs at Russian/ Russian held NPPs.
Ukraine has said it is bringing what war means, home to Russia.
Putin, who has always struck an exquisite balance in terms of proportionate response, will bring what war means home to the wider west. It will not be a case of- 'will NATO intervene directly?' The war will come to it and the question will be how it will respond. Expect a swift end to all this through a clear cut withdrawal of support for Ukraine and the agreement of new secure boundaries between Russia and the West. This is what Putin is playing for. It is just that the west has demonstrated now what that must mean. It must mean taking all Ukraine.
The secure boundary & the sought-after neutrality are what OTAN could never give to Russia. In provocation after provocation VVP saw w/ sinus-clearing lucidity that the only way to manifest both for his country--security & neutrality--required doing so militarily
This right here is pathetic and proves my point about Russia getting embarrassed on a weekly basis. Letting the west crap all over them. There isn't any coping that can make this sound less pathetic as it does
"In the past month alone, Ukraine has dealt serious damage to at least three Russian airfields—Lipetsk, Morozovsk, and the Marinovka base in Volgorod just yesterday. Then there have been the new oil terminal hits, with the Rostov one a few days ago being a particularly grievous example. Now they’ve destroyed, what’s being called by some, one of the last functioning oil ferries in Crimea with a hit last night in Kavkaz."
So Ukraine claims to have shot down almost ten times more Kinzhals than Iskanders despite the former being about twice as fast as the latter and thus far harder to shoot down.
Right, they claim it's a better chance to shot down kinzhal rather than tochka-u. The kicker is: Russia doesn't use tochka-u mussiles. It's just a bunch of lies as usual.
My theory is that the Kinzhal's radar decoys work extremely well, and that the Ukrainians are actually pretty good at shooting down the Kinzhal's radar decoys, which enables them to claim to have shot down any, let alone as many as they claim.
I think they are just BS-ing, probably another begging campaing: give us more air defense, more tanks, more everything and some billions too.
They are also claiming 0.6% intercept rate of S300/S400. It is to support their claim that Russia is launching S300 missiles on gound targets. But S300 is air defense missile designed to hit light unarmored targets, not a concrete structures.
I always try to understand the SMO in Ukraine as part of a broader geopolitical chess game being played by Russia/China/BRICS, with objectives that are historic in nature and that change the way the world works.
These objectives are the establishment of a separate economic, military, political and socio-cultural system that rivals the parasitic financial "rules based order" that the West has built, and that in fact may dominate it.
The overall Russia/China strategy requires on extreme discipline and strategic patience. In particular, it relies on containing the West at all costs and not permitting the West to escalate the situation to open warfare, that may bring in nukes.
This means that all parties with an interest in what Russia/China are doing must accept that they cannot react/retaliate in ways that help the West, even when the West inflicts both lethal and humiliating hits. That is the price they must pay to achieve the long term broader objective.
In my view, we saw this strategic patience at play with Russia's urgent intervention to persuade Tehran against a massive Iranian retaliation against Israel.
We have seen the same approach in China's posture towards Taiwan. We are seeing it again in Moscow's posture towards Kiev/NATO, following the flagrant incursion into Kursk.
In respect to Ukraine, I think that Russia's pacing of the SMO is dictated more by the broader geopolitical objectives described above, and less by what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. The broader geopolitical objectives require a longer timeline to achieve & Ukraine has to fit into that timeline.
From this oerspective, it makes sense for Russia to continue steadily draining Ukraine, the EU & NATO of treasure, men and materiel, without creating a pretext for the West to escalate, and also becoming more powerful in economic, military and political terms. This approach works and has created huge pressure on the West, as we have seen for the last 2.5 years.
Of course, this approach also requires Moscow to take opportunities that arise. I see the Kursk incursion as more an act of desperation by the West than anything else. It was always a desperate "Hail Mary" PR exercise that was forced on Kiev/NATO, who decided to invade Kursk because of the pressure / weight of Russia's strategy in Ukraine.
Kursk is an opportunity for Russia. Moscow may decide not to react in any meaningful way, and to continue the policy of strategic patience/attrition. However, it may be that Moscow has determined that the West's idiotic Kursk adventure creates a pretext & opportunity to persuade the West and in particular DC, to sacrifice and walk away from their doomed Ukrainian proxy.
This would presumably require Russia to demonstrate to the West what Russian firepower is capable of when pushed to full war limits, for example by destroying all political centres in Kiev and / or Lvov, perhaps liquidating Zelensky and his top people, combined with a significant increase in intensity in military operations on the front line.
Again, it would need to be a demonstration to the West that is powerful enough to cause real fear in NATO/DC - a tricky thing to do given that NATO seeks to be run by irrational morons who cannot grasp the drastic situation they have created for themselves. Indeed Moscow may well conclude against retaliating too harshly, for precisely this reason - they cannot predict what psychos in Washington or DC would do.
Anyway, my main point is to understand Moscow's approach in Ukraine by reference more to its overall geopolitical objectives, and less by reference to its objectives in Ukraine itself. Russia and China are trying to build a new & alternative global order while also managing a "controlled demolition" of a desperate and volatile western system. It's a monumental task that will require time, patience and resilience.
> In my view, we saw this strategic patience at play with Russia's urgent intervention to persuade Tehran against a massive Iranian retaliation against Israel.
Really? What has Russia "persuaded" Iran to do: sit back and allow ZioNazistan to assasinate and bomb inside Iran at will in exchange for an S-400 system? And Iran will just accept to have its credibility shot to pieces by Russia's persuasion, right?
Revenge is a dish best served cold, and at leisure.
Had Iran launched a strike within a week, this would have given the West a VERY accurate idea of how much equipment/missiles they can move to launch in that time frame. Delaying fuzzes that number enormously, which make Western counter planning exponentially more difficult. Plus the West shifted fuel/equipment/resources (whole carrier groups moved) and used up diplomatic credit in preparing to repel a strike.
This is all burning a massive amount of cash and resources to keep in place, the deferred maintenance will drop later availability drastically.
The longer Iran takes to drop the other shoe, the more likely it is to succeed and the detriment to the West is already occurring in ever mounting quantities.
First rate comment. Thanks! I'd add to that a key factor working in favor of Russia's strategy as you lay it out that the West seems to willfully ignore: Russia can apply patience because the population *strongly* supports the government it elected, from Putin on down.
One of the West's most self-destructive self-delusions is its belief that Putin is unpopular or that he can be "brought down" by some sort of popular uprising. The West refuses to acknowledge the reality that Putin is the choice of the Russian people and his government is doing their bidding. It is genuine democracy in action.
They also don't get it that Russians are far more expert on military matters than Westerners, a side effect of most men in Russia having served in the army, at least a year or two. As General Apti Alaudinov says in the video S posted: "We are used to war. We can do war. We know how to fight." That applies to Russians overall. They're not a bunch of gender-confused weirdos and Gen Z snowflakes. Pretty much everybody knows how to handle an AK-47.
Average Russians don't panic over terrorist actions like Kursk. Instead, they calmly and systematically destroy the terrorists.
It's also a mistake for Westerners to give too much credit to outliers on Russian social media. In every society of 150 million people who are fanatic, over-the-top users of Internet and social media there will be a subset of doomer parasites who'll spout any nonsense for a click. But they don't remotely dent the extremely broad and deep consensus in Russia that crosses ethnic and religious lines.
Alaudinov, for example, is a Chechen and Muslim and the battalion he leads is so well known for its ferocity in battle on behalf of Russia that it is his battalion that prompted the popular Russian joke: Ethnic Russians are cowering in a basement in some Ukrainian hamlet waiting for Russian troops to liberate them from the nazis, and when they hear shouts of "Allah Akhbar!" outside they erupt in smiles and embrace each other saying "Hurray! the Russians are here!"
I don't buy any "uptick in anxiousness amidst the Russian commentariat" - that's only the expression of a few outliers trying to get clicks or air time with a more alarmist presentation. It's also the expression of a few outliers with anger management issues who would prefer instant nuclear war that incinerates the US no matter what that does to Russia.
Upvoted, because you're right. But on top of that there hasn't been any significant suffering in Russia. The West keeps telling themselves "We're really making the Russians suffer!" but that's just propaganda for morons. Let's consider that alleged "suffering" in three categories: economic, military, and social.
Economic: As in sanctions, for example. Sanctions have caused absolutely zero suffering in Russia. On the contrary sanctions have been one of factors that have caused a *boom* in the Russian economy. It turns out that almost everything in the world is made in China, not in the EU or US, and that whatever anybody could possibly want is easily available from China if it is not already made in Russia.
The self-destructive EU attack on Russia's oligarchs in the West guaranteed that seemingly within minutes of the first EU confiscations of Russian oligarch yachts and mansions, hundreds of billions of dollars in oligarch money fled the West and returned to safety in Russia, powering a huge venture capital wave of investment in expansion of existing Russian businesses and the creation of many new state of the art businesses.
Those relatively few Western companies that "left" Russia didn't really have any impact on ordinary life. Virtually nobody in Russia watched NetFlix and FedEx had been crushed by local competitors like CDEK long before they left. Amazon never got any traction in Russia while huge local companies like OZON and Wildberries did.
I'm an American living in Russia and I can see every day how the booming economy has improved the quality of life. It was always very good in Russia after the switch to Capitalism but in recent years it's become really superb.
Military: One reason Russia calls the conflict in Ukraine a "special operation" is that it does not rise to the level of intensity, and suffering, that the word "war" means in Russian. Over 600,000 of Kiev's troops have been killed with fewer than 70,000 of Russia's troops killed.
That sounds like a lot but for Russians it's not really any suffering at all, it's the expected bill for a man's work in destroying a nazi cancer. Likewise, virtually no Russian civilians in "classic" Russia have been killed during the entire conflict. It's around 200 killed as a result of nazi drone and artillery attacks, almost all in the very narrow zone near the border. Nobody else in Russia is "suffering" as a result of military action.
Across the land, from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok, all 11 time zones of mainland Russia, people aren't sheltering in bunkers or fearing the sky. They're going out to the park, walking the dog, riding around on electric scooters, enjoying the weather in outdoor cafes and all the rest of ordinary life. There are more civilian casualties in the new territories, but those have been an active war zone for over ten years and everybody is used to that. As Apti Alaudinov put it, "We are used to war. We can do war. We know how to fight," and that's how people in the new territories feel.
Social: The imbeciles in the EU and US think that cutting Russia off from their sick and Satanic culture will make Russians "suffer." Nope. Pretty much all of Russia looked at the perverted opening ceremonies of the Paris olympics and simultaneously thought, "Thank God we're not there." It's the same with travel to Europe or other US vassals. People who enjoyed doing that now travel elsewhere. For example, my friends and I used to routinely travel to Spain, Italy, and France. I'm American and I can still do that, but I won't go where my friends cannot. Now we travel to Asia, to India, China, South America, and Africa. Instead of yet another trip to Barcelona so you can complain how none of the restaurants open before 10 PM, it's a trip to see the Taj Mahal, the Pyramids, a cruise down the Amazon, the Great Wall, or thanking God the US was unable to destroy the beaches and geographic wonders of Vietnam.
So, no suffering. But should it come, for example, in the wake of WW3 that annihilates the US and US vassals while also leaving Russia in ruins, well, Russians are ready for that.
That's worth a more extensive quote from General Apti Alaudinov: "Either the SMO ends this year or the SMO this year transitions into world war 3. We are used to war. We can do war. We know how to fight. But how will you feel? This is for you probably a very difficult question. Therefore a call to everyone. Go outside. Stop your fascist governing layers of your states."
Also The Duran guys (and IMHO agree) remind us that Russia has BRICS/ the global south watching its actions -- are they measured, are they trying to do a peace deal. Putin is not JUST dealing with his supportive domestic audience he has to show BRICS/ the SOUTH he is truly interested in being the adult in the room to be a big part of the new multi-polar world.
Yeah, the surge in anxious and angry comments in popular Russian TG channels can actually be attributed to Ukraine's fearmongers stoking the fire. They are trying too hard though. There's no rush now that Ukie blitz had been largely halted and turned into yet another highly profitable killbox. I'd rather see it continue to consume Ukie armor until next year. 200-300 fast attack vehicles and half hundred tanks, in less than a month, that's great.
Most Russians have not fought or have military service unfortunately. This is no longer the Soviet Union. In fact, most Russians with means (middle class and above) desperately seek to avoid military service as its seen a waste of time "заборы красить на дачи у генерала" is a very common (and unfortunate) view of things. Now it also is viewed as dangerous.
It's not the Soviet Union, but universal service for at least a year for men at age 18 is still in force. That's a reduction from the two years that it used to be earlier, which is a point of controversy in Russia. As one of my friends remarked the other day, "After they serve for two years they come out a man. But one year is not enough to assure that."
It's true that most Russians have not fought, but that's always the case in almost all countries throughout history, even heavily militarized ones during historical eras of continuous warfare. It's also true that, given that there is no compulsory service for women, most Russians have not served.
You're right that the middle class and above avoids military service, taking advantage of the very many exemptions that are available for students and the like. That's changing since the start of the special op as more and more professionals and young men on professional or high education career tracks are volunteering for duty. Patriotism is at a higher point I think since the Great Patriotic War, although there are still plenty of unpatriotic parasites who, when they're not throwing their chewing gum wrappers on the floor in restaurants or parking their Land Cruisers on sidewalks, don't give a hoot about the country or anything but themselves. Those are the same jerks who buy a puppy for their kids at the start of the dacha season in summer and then at the end of the summer abandon the dog so they don't have to care for it at their city apartments, telling the kids that the dog "ran away."
But still, if you look at the current population of Russia most men have indeed had military service, at least for a year, and that helps drive a far greater awareness of military matters than in the West. That also leaks over into a greater awareness of military matters in women, except, of course for Gen Z children. Some of that is a legacy of the USSR. It's not at all unusual for women who are 50 and above to know how to load, shoot, tear down and reassemble an AK-47, a result of school training classes during the Union. If you're younger than that and living in Russia, ask your mom or grandmother and you might be surprised to hear them say "oh, sure, we learned how to do all that...".
Viewing military service as "dangerous" is nothing new, but the emergence of that view in narcissistic youth is, mercifully, limited to weak minded youth who are easily influenced by Western propaganda. It's the same stupid children who believed Western propaganda that their education exemptions from service would be cancelled and that 18 year olds would be rounded up for the front, and so they used mommy's credit card to hop on the next plane to Serbia. None of them stopped to notice that the mobilization in 2022 was limited only to men with prior service who had signed up for the active reserve.
Contrast that to the huge new wave of patriotism in more worthwhile young people, which shows up not only in volunteering for service but also in surprising waves in culture, like the huge success of the young rock star "Shaman," who sings overtly patriotic songs like "My Russia".
So sure, I agree that there are plenty of people in Russia who uninformed about the military and intend to stay that way, but on average Russians tend to be much better informed on military matters than Westerners as a result of the overall much greater participation in military service in the country. That helps power a lot of the Russian common sense, no panic, approach to the SVO.
Yes, there will be outliers like some weak minded youth, but those too tend to be balanced by the new wave of very patriotic youth who are ready to go out and tear the guts out of anybody stupid enough to mess with Russia.
As Shaman puts it in "My Russia":
"This is where I was born and this is where I live
My mom and dad both learned how to take apart an AK and put it together. My mother talks about having to do it blindfolded at her school. However, it seems the millenials and Gen-Z are rather unpatriotic and very westernized. This is why the partial mobilization has triggered a mass exodus to Georgia, Serbia, Armenia.
While pop culture icons like Shaman and Morgenshtern are trying to promote the SVO, it is limited subset and many people will continue to avoid talking about the subject openly instead saying like "you know what happened in February 22".
1 year Military service for men is usually for village youth, uneducated youth, youth from military families or people from the provincial regions. You won't see the programmer Vasya go to volunteer. He is more likely to get a job in Czech Republic and leave. I have seen many such cases. It is the middle class that is the biggest influence on society today unfortunately.
Overall you're right, but I think you overplay the "mass exodus" thing. The weak minded children who fell for the massive US disinformation campaign on social media did leave in 2022, around 150,000 of them. About half of them have since returned and many of those who have not returned are staying abroad because they burned their bridges when they left.
You're right that young programmers do not as a matter of course join the military. They tend to get an exemption from military service because their skills are strategically vital, and that's no joke. Russia is absolutely crushing the US and Kiev's troops in Ukraine with AI because Russian AI is more sophisticated and it's been deployed to the battlefield for over a year and a half. It's been that long since Lancet drones gained the ability to swarm autonomously and to use autonomous AI to independently make battle decisions. The US has nothing like that, and neither does Ukraine. Kiev is still stuck in the primitive, initial era of using off the shelf commercial drones controlled by humans.
As for leaving, the best and brightest don't leave. A good example is what happened when Intel closed its offices in Russia, which employed about 1000 engineers and scientists in R&D. Intel offered all expenses paid transfers to Intel centers in Germany and Poland, with a huge boost in salaries so people could afford to live there. About one third of their workforce accepted that offer.
But the one third that took that offer were the weaker employees, who were unsure about their employment prospects after Intel fired them in Russia. Almost all of the strong employees stayed. They all got jobs within two weeks at Huawei and huge Russian companies that operate R&D centers in Russia, and every one of them got a big boost in salary. Of the one third who left Russia, most have returned, including almost all of the ones with children. They don't like their children growing up being cretins in the terrible school systems operated in the EU, and they are annoyed by the totally ignorant Russophobia around them.
I personally know four young people who are programmers who stayed in Russia. That's 100% of the sample of young people I know who are programmers, but I'm not saying it's representative. They stayed in Russia despite offers of higher salaries because all of their friends and family are in Russia and they didn't like the bad taste of betraying their country in time of war.
None of them are political, except one that was strongly against the special op. They just want to have a good career, grow up, start families and live in the culture they know and love. They are all happy they stayed because their careers are booming (Russia's tech economy is on a massive roll), and they all are getting political in favor of Russia, including the one originally against the special op, as they see the incarnate evil of the West exposed.
They also report that of their friends who left Russia, for places like Serbia or Georgia or whatever, *all* of them are looking forward to returning to Russia. A typical pattern is that young people saw the opportunity to live abroad at somebody else's expense for a while (an appealing thing for young people) but now that they've gotten that out of their system and they've become experienced enough to realize that a West they might have over-idealized is also a mess, just a different type of mess and in many ways a worse mess than Russia, they much prefer building their lives in Russia.
I respectfully disagree about the middle class being the biggest influence, because I think it is more a difference between an extreme urban society like St. Pete or Moscow and "the regions," like Novosibirsk, Kazan, Krasnodar, Volgograd, etc. People in St. Pete and Moscow are notoriously liberal, narcissistic and self-centered while out in the "real Russia" in the regions (where I live, thank God) people are much more patriotic. Where I live we have plenty of programmers, lawyers, businessmen and other professionals who are volunteering for the army. Moscow also has that, of course, but as a percentage thing the regions are more patriotic. I think you get that in the US, too. It's no accident there are so many people volunteering for the US army from Texas and the South and not from degenerate urban cores like Manhattan or San Francisco.
Take heart. The more Russians learn about the true face of the West (their response to Russia's unflinching defense of Russian people has taken off their masks) the more people want no part of being Westernized, at least not culturally. So fine, take the good part of it, the common sense of market oriented economies (a part of Russia for centuries before the Bolsheviks destroyed that for 70 years), but say no to the vicious colonialism, hatred for religion, support for nazis, and social perversion.
"Anyway, my main point is to understand Moscow's approach in Ukraine by reference more to its overall geopolitical objectives, and less by reference to its objectives in Ukraine itself. Russia and China are trying to build a new & alternative global order while also managing a "controlled demolition" of a desperate and volatile western system. It's a monumental task that will require time, patience and resilience."
This is an excellent post. I'm an American(72 y/o)...we want immediate results. I'm guilty of this thinking myself. The Russians are chess players. It is a slow and deliberate game. I played chess in HS but gave it up shortly thereafter because the pace of the game (for me) was too slow. I moved on to backgammon which moves fast and takes about 10-15 minutes to play. People go nuts here if their food or coffee order doesn't arrive in 30 seconds. Gotta move on to the next distraction-fast.
My experience is that the average American doesn't give a shit about what happens in Ukraine. We're told that Putin is Satan like every leader we go to war with. It's tiresome. The propaganda here is very successful. As long as vacations and lattes are readily available, foreign affairs are generally of no interest. No one (yet) is being drafted and I doubt the US gov't will go there as that's when the real push back begins. The average American likely thinks the Russians are communist. I studied history for over fifty years and can find very few people (college ed) that can even have a real conversation re current geo-political events. In my experience people are just disinterested. We always look for another war to prosecute here. That's why we can't have nice things. The intelligence, patience and discipline of Putin and the Russians blows my mind.
"I studied history for over fifty years and can find very few people (college ed) that can even have a real conversation re current geo-political events."
Well said. I rarely visit the US anymore just for that reason. I like talking geopolitics and there's just none of that in the US because Americans have become such ignorant dummies.
A good example was a couple of years ago when I had dinner in New York with some friends from college who knew I was living in Russia and that my views on the special op did not conform to the US narrative. They had invited another couple who I didn't know but who had been warned in advance I had non-conformist views and that it would be best to avoid discussion of world events at dinner, apparently to protect anybody from exploding head syndrome if they were inadvertently exposed to truth.
Well, we got along great and had a fine dinner talking about pretty much everything except the one thing everybody obviously wanted to talk about, given the presence of an actual Russian (living in Russia makes you that, apparently, even if you're really an American just living there for a while) at the table. And then towards the end of dinner the couple I had just met bravely set out to show their broadness of mind.
It was clear they had screwed up their courage and their determination to be openminded, and to hear what I might have to say about the matter without immediately jumping into "cancel this Putin propagandist" mode. I don't remember exactly how they asked me, but it was something along the lines of "We've heard you have a contrasting view, and we'd really like to hear what you think about the war in Ukraine, without prejudging anything you might say. We follow independent bloggers, neutral news sources, so we think we have a good background, but we'd like to hear from you." They were really proud that they weren't just gullible, uninformed Americans who got their news from CNN or Fox, but who really dug deep to get real news and views.
I asked them if they really wanted to know, because an honest answer would not be a short one. For example, to really understand the conflict in Ukraine and what I thought about it as an eye witness, to really understand issues like Crimea, you'd have to go back a thousand years. But that I was sure ready to do my best to cover that as quickly as possible to get on to current events.
They were puzzled at that and literally asked, "What does Crimea have to do with it? That's a separate country." They literally thought that Crimea was some sort of separate country, like Algeria or Switzerland or whatever, and not a territory very deeply involved in the geopolitics of Ukraine and Russia. At that, I thought "OK... this isn't going to go well..." and indeed the conversation rapidly went downhill from there.
As usual, they didn't want to hear anything other than the narrative they'd bought into, but only wanted to hear confirmation of their own prejudices: nothing that happened before February 2022 mattered, the US was not in any way involved in coups in Ukraine, there have never been any nazis in Ukraine, ethnic Russians are maybe 0.5% of Ukraine, the Russian language and the Russian ethnicity did not emerge just to the southeast of Kiev over 1000 years ago but is a completely foreign implant put there by malign Kremlin dictators in the last few years, and Putin invaded a model democracy because he is an insane dictator unsatisfied with beating up his own people and wanting to rebuild the Soviet Union so he can make the whole world his gulag.
And that's what passes for "neutral" and "well informed" in the US these days. It's also what passes for "neutral" in any US vassal as well. When I travel outside the US, for example, to China, I'll occasionally run into Westerners who want to talk about Ukraine. They're always the same as that couple in New York. They'll ask, I'll reply with a few paragraphs, they look at me in horror like I grew horns and a tail, and then the conversation ends.
Boy, what a fly on the wall moment for me. I actually developed a different approach for these situations without taking full credit since it was pitched to me by someone else. It goes like this. Picture USA and Mexico as a unified superstate that exists for several centuries more or less. Then it breaks up along the Southern States so that Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, California, Arizona and New Mexico are now part of Greater Atzlan.
For a couple of decades it's going inertial, although nationalists make children learn in schools that they're Atzlanians and about how persecuted they had always been by the U.S. and force upon them a "native Atzlanian language" which heavily replaces English words with Spanish ones.
Then a Chinese-instigated coup happens. Atzlanians nationalists grab power in the capital and put down everyone who disagrees with them, American businesses are kicked out and given to the Chinese and Russians, English is banned in full. China and Russia fully support the coup and warn American president that there will be retaliation if he interferes. He doesn't. Clashes with English-speakers begin in earnest, Louisiana and Mississippi submit, Arizona also does, but Florida uses its position as the most remote and the fact that parts of US fleet are still stationed there to quietly secede straight back to the US without firing a single shot. Texas and New Mexico call everyone to arms and actually manage to break away with help from American volunteers who start to seep through the border despite having no support from tied-up American govt and having to face Mexican army armed by the Chinese.
It escalates, Russians open their training bases in the rear, Chinese tanks arrive and roll upon the defenders, cities burn but hold, unrest in Arizona and California puts thousands under arrest, people disappear in swathes. The world is oblivious. Americans demand from Potus to find some balls and put a stop to the massacres. Which he eventually finds the courage to, after failing at every possible diplomatic attempt to settle it down for more than seven years of bombardments that claim lives of 15.000 Texans.
He recognizes Texas and NM as independent states despite getting immediately sanctioned by UN, signs an alliance with them and commits US Army to defend Houston when Chinese tanks are two dozen miles away from city limits. China insists that overwhelming military defeat is necessary to make America withdraw, give up Texas and NM and pay contributions to Atzlan. Atzlanians in the meantime heavily draft the American population of occupied states in the frontline battalions so that New Mexicans are killing Californians and vice versa while keeping hardcore nationalists in the rear to preserve Atzlanian identity for future resettling of these parts. And that's where we are today.
Well done Andy. A perverse twist on this theme is elucidated in a book detailing how President Polk in 1846 declared war on Mexico for phony reasons and greatly expanded the geographic boundaries of the US by taking on a much weaker nation. Manifest Destiny, blah, blah, blah. The details are in a book called
A Very Wicked War by Amy S. Greenberg. A worthwhile read.
Bell curve. Infinitesimal quantity of people in the outer reaches of the curve, especially in NYC. You'd have better luck around say, the R&D base I work at. The NYC crowd are willing recipients of the regime propaganda, and those who aren't generally leave.
It's all been fun and games for the US since 1945 and especially since 1991.
They've had a great run.
I'm old enough to remember when the thought of China let alone Russia challenging US primacy, was simply ridiculous.
In fact I can recall my old Professor telling us that ancient cultures & superpowers like China and Russia would come back - it was inevitable, and that America needed to be aware of this.
That hubristic assumption of American exceptionalism clearly took hold like a virus in the US power elite, and has taken the to where we are now.
America is on the ropes, and no amount of Hollywood propaganda can hide the truth.
If you say so. BTW Perfidious Albion still has a little muscle left-- just ask MI6 supporting the Banderites and "Israel" as well as the City of London. But oh (as a dual citizen of Canada and UK) I do welcome the snuffing out of the corrupt flame that is left.
100%. I actually called the Russian consulate (in Ottawa) the first time they saved the Zaporozhye NPP near the beginning off the SMO to thank them from saving the world from another Chernobyl. They were stunned (general desk) but said thank you.
Beautiful analysis O-22. That is exactly what I have been thinking but I don’t possess the word skills to covey this thought as you have here. Russia’s main goal must be to escape the financial boot on the neck from the international money managers without triggering WW-3. War creates an exponential increase in demand for the one product the money managers have-DEBT in the form of fiat currency. May the killings soon stop.
Meanwhile, earlier this week, the "bulwark of Western values", i.e. Ukraine, banned the activities of religious groups tied to the Russian Orthodox Church, thus targeting the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) too, despite its claim of independence from the Moscow Patriarchate. So much for freedom and democracy!
Reacting to the news above, yesterday Dmitry Medvedev said that the "country shall be destroyed as Sodom and Gomorrah once were".
Very comprehensive analysis once again, so thank you.
A few comments:
1) Russia isn't doing jack shit to NATO bases in Germany. They're jumping at shadows, freaking out because there's a tiny gap in kilometers of fencing, etc. Guarantee you that "drone" was just a kid flying a kite or something.
2) Russia seems to be doing spectacularly well in terms of fighting on the ground in Ukraine. Good job, boys.
3) On the other hand, Kursk is a disaster even if Ukraine isn't moving forward or whatever. It takes a LOT to piss off Russians, but having their civilians killed and foreign troops on their soil is getting them riled up. So why are Putin et al doing nothing? It's way past time to at least give a stirring speech. So why the foot dragging? This really WILL end up in a revolution (with no help needed from foreign NGOs) if Putin doesn't get his ass in gear and quit zooming off to party in Baku, ffs.
4) As a professional writer, the weak-ass passive voice used in US Embassy warnings drives me insane. That being said, I don't think they're truly worried about some big Russian missile strike. I think they're setting up false flag PR stunt on Ukrainian soil - something juicy with lots of screaming civilians, maybe a hospital or orphanage.
5) I've said it before and I'll say it again - Germany is out of money, not just for Ukraine but for everything. And as polite and "civilized" as modern Germans are, the knives come out when money gets tight. I truly would not be surprised if there isn't a coup/violent revolution in less than a year. Don't forget the "monarchists" who already tried to stage one last year. Remember, it just takes a few days without food before people go bananas.
6) What in the world is up with Ukraine financing and arming the Fulani of all people in Africa (esp CAR)? I mean wtf? These are black Muslims, the last guys you'd ever think would be Bandera allies. I guess the thinking is that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" but Ukraine is seriously getting western Africa riled up.
7) Did anyone see Borrell the gardener crying this week about the lack of EU military bases in Libya? Priceless!
8) Shit is getting PRETTY crazy inside Israel, talking about Jewish politics here. Just google the term "Philadelphia Corridor" to see just how schizophrenic things are getting.
9) So... I guess we're all gonna pretend it's normal for the US to have an unelected president Harris who was chosen by no one and never speaks to the press or answers questions about literally anything? All while Brandon sits in the corner and talks to his ice cream. How much more absurd do things have to get???
10) who is actually paying Ukraine's bills right now? Not talking about military stuff. I mean the government budget for things like salaries and picking up garbage and importing electricity. Seems like there's a huge black hole on this topic and I can't figure out where the money is coming from, esp the foreign reserves to prop up the UAH. How has their currency not cratered yet?
Germany is out of money? Haha. Thank God. Hopefully, the "uk" will be out of money soon, too. Let's give the migrants a chance to run the uk and eu. They might do better and not kiss nato ass like some limp wristed...
Very well said, 100% agree except this: "This really WILL end up in a revolution (with no help needed from foreign NGOs) if Putin doesn't get his ass in gear and quit zooming off to party in Baku, ffs."
No, it won't end in a revolution. Russians are far and away more military literate than westerners, a side effect of most Russian men having served at least a year or two in the army, and they don't panic over military matters. They understand perfectly well there's an ebb and flow in war and that, for sure, their side will have setbacks as well as gains.
They understand that the Kursk incursion is a military disaster for Kiev that was launched as feedstock for propaganda for Western morons and to try to bait more direct fighting between the US and Russia. People are completely OK with the idea of slaughtering Kiev's troops and wiping out US/NATO equipment in a cauldron on the border with Ukraine in Kursk oblast. Let them come to Russia and die as they create a wonderfully target-rich environment for Russian forces. There are a few people trying to get clicks with alarmist presentations, but they're outliers.
As to your point 10, it's mainly the US with some help from the US's EU vassals that is paying Ukraine's bills right now. I suspect it is very hard to figure out where the money is coming from because the US is deliberately obfuscating the money flows since a good bit of it is being sent to Ukraine illegally, not bothering to fulfill all the requirements, like constitutionally valid appropriations and expenditures, that apply to lesser mortals.
[Edit]: Forgot to mention: Russians generally back Putin's activity with allies. Azerbaijan is a critical player in the region to the South and Putin's diplomacy there is essential, him doing a critical part of his job. Putin maintaining hands on, close relationships with countries like Azerbaijan and the various 'stans is just as important as the close relationships with BRICS+ countries like India and China. Russians know that.
I'm very curious about one thing - Let's say Russia pushes up to the Dniepr, taking all of the Donbass. Ukraine still remains in Kursk, and presumably has a strong defence line on their bank of the Dniepr. Doesn't that mean the Ukrainians can simply reconstituted yet another army of drafted 18 year olds and NATO wunderwaffen, and keep going? How does the AFU collapse in any case as long as they still have, as you mentioned, a large, untapped reserve of 18 year olds, an impervious defensive barrier around their central cities, and weapon supplies from the West?
You are absolutely right. They are writing off the Donbass - because anyone with any sense can see that it is lost - and adjusting their deployment accordingly. They will be in Kursk for months or longer "occupied Russia", all the cool HD videos of combat showing destroyed houses - Russian houses - those are normal people's houses. I always had severe criticism of Kiev for its willingness to sacrifice its own people for the West. What is Moscow sacrificing these people for? And, the AFU, noticing that Moscow isn't responding, is likely to double and triple down and push further still and create another axis of long-range strike. There is going to be a 300-500km danger zone into Russia where there will be constant, unending small scale strikes. The scale and tempo of strikes is not decreasing as well. Once these start to number in the hundreds or thousands the cumulative effect will be massive.
Those who presume that russia can be a garbage compactor for NATO equipment indefinitely will have a big surprise when they realize that a country of 140mn ppl cannot compete with the combined economic output of 1bn, especially when the latter have perfectly unmolested production and supply while the former have daily attacks against... everything.
Thank you for the insightful article as always!
I have noticed that there is a wide range of opinions on the reasons for the Kursk incursion (and related psy-op campaign) and why things went the way they did, but some of them are practically never discussed, even though I consider them highly probable. Here is my own analysis of the incursion, based on sources, some of whom are relatively unknown RU experts:
1) I find the following theory as the most probable one regarding the reasons for this incursion. The whole idea of attacking Kursk was originally planned by the US masters as an October surprise to boost the Democratic party candidate's rating. Obviously, the situation on the front line is dire (and will be even worse by October), discrediting the foreign policy of the current US administration which seeks reelection. This October surprise would have helped to boost the narrative of the strong UKR which is capable to even strike deep into RU territory with the Western uber-weapons (yeah, just don't ask any inconvenient questions about why it's loosing on the primary front line if it's so strong, the Western media is more than capable to obscure inconvenient facts).
However, for some reason UKR went rogue and started it early. Possible explanations:
a) No time to wait as collapse of the Donbass front is imminent and the West is unwilling to supply more vehicles and weapons (with obscuring this fact by overhyping the news of F-16 delivery; BTW where are they, why they're not used?), keeping UKR on the bare minimum life support.
b) UKR leadership was worried that the plans will be leaked to Moscow and be ruined. There was a recent report in the western media (alas I forgot to save the source, I remember Simplicius quoting this) that at least two similar operations were cancelled due to American involvement—in one case they've asked to cancel the operation and in the other case the operation plans were leaked to RU.
c) (Maybe partially a reason but not standalone) UKR leadership wanted to make it coincide with the anniversary of the "Kursk" submarine disaster (August 12, 2000) which some are misrepresenting as the first Putin's disaster (well, it happened under Putin soon after he took power, but was he responsible?). And indeed, Zelensky played this thing in his speech on Aug 12 — look up "# Zelenskyy: Kursk disaster symbolized the start of Putin's rule, and now it's the end for him".
d) Probably UKR leadership simply didn't want to wait that long as the time is clearly playing against UKR in the ongoing attrition warfare and each minute reduced their chance of success.
2) Many experts while observing footage of FPV and missile strikes noticed that RU roads quality is extremely good compared to the decadent UKR countryside which we got used to see in the past two years. Some believe that it certainly paid a factor in the relatively quick road advance in the first two days as UKR was using wheeled vehicles and tried to drive as deep as possible until RU forces organized ambushes. Either way most of these advances were not an actual territory control but a game of tag to claim as many settlements as possible and help boost the TSIPSO narratives.
3) It's important to note the SMO command was not responsible for defending Kursk Oblast and securing the border (it was under guard of the FSB border service which is relatively weak armed). On more remote positions from the border there were regular military units (mostly conscripts) which are not officially engaged in the SMO and not under the command of the army group North which is dedicated to the neighboring RU Belgorod Oblast and creating the buffer area in Kharkov region of UKR (BTW, two days ago RU MoD announced that three new army groups will be organized to boost the defense of the border regions—namely Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod; better late than never?). According to the ex-colonel of RU AF Vladimir Trukhan, the first defense line in the area was organized approximately at the area which is currently holding the UKR armed forces, meaning that it's behind small towns (the biggest of which is Sudzha (population of 5000 as reported in 2024)). Why so? Big Serge mentioned in his article that the border area is very wooded in Kursk Oblast. It's also curvy. So the defense line never (not in RU nor in UKR or any country) matches the country's border line. The defense line usually goes on some distance from it, representing a less curvy line and utilizing more suitable terrain to maximize the defense capabilities. Vladimir Trukhan also noted that the civilian administration has the final say in matters of allocating land for military purposes (during peacetime), and some oddities associated with the line of defense may be due to this factor.
4) There is a conspiracy theory with people speculating whether the RU military command knew about the UKR plans but intentionally played along just to create a trap and lure the UKR forces in the new meatgrinder. Meaning that there was intentional endangering of RU citizens in the Kursk Oblast by evacuating them too late. According to the ex-colonel of RU AF Vladimir Trukhan again, it's not the case ("These are not our methods", as he said). While RU intelligence may have knew about the plans of some incursion, it was indeed organized with a high level of OPSEC and RU didn't knew the exact date and vector of the attack. "We have just missed it", Trukhan said. However, it doesn't mean that RU will not turn this tactical blunder into a strategic advantage. Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, and Zakharova already stated that URK terrorist incursion preclude any negotiations, finally putting a nail in the peace talks effort lead by China and India. And the Chinese media have indeed been spinning the narrative since the first day of the invasion that the UKR acted dishonestly and attacked RU territory, effectively starting a war on the land that had not seen bloodshed since 1943, when the German tanks previously rushed toward Russia's impenetrable defenses...
5) I believe there was a strong angle to not only damage Putin's reputation but to actually cause civilian unrest, protests (especially if the advance was more successful), and, ultimately, change of the RU top military command which, if happened, will obviously hurt RU advances on the front line as the military will need to rework the plans and it often takes weeks if not months. With this incursion there was a blatant and overwhelming psy-op campaign of TSIPSO, which included not only comments in social networks and Telegram but also calls to the people in the border towns to spread panic, and several prominent "Russian" (most of them are actually UKR origin) military bloggers either exposing themselves as UKR SBU/GUR assets or at least as useful idiots by playing along with the UKR propaganda. E.g. there is a UKR-born blogger Yuri Podolyaka with over 3 mln subscribers in Telegram (who, BTW, has a son and ex-wife still living in UKR Sumy region as he confirmed in Nov'2022 when he also said that he will do "unthinkable" to anyone who expose or endangers them; majority of the people are unaware or ignoring this fact even though he said it himself and the video is still available in his Telegram channel). Podolyaka among others exaggerated the reach of the UKR successes and pushed the narrative that the Chief of General Staff, general Valery Gerasimov, should be held responsible for the failure of preventing the Kursk incursion (recently a new major disinformation campaign started to blame general Aleksandr Lapin, commander of the army group North). The previous time such a coordinated psy-op campaign happened during the Prigozhin's mutiny (it also targeted Gerasimov as well as Shoigu, who was, BTW, not fired this year but actually raised to the Secretary of the Security Council, in place of honorable Nikolai Patrushev). This time the psy-op caused a real panic in Kurks Oblast that resulted in traffic jams on the highway to the border towns which put in danger civilians and military columns and there were some successful FPV and HIMARS strikes (which, again, people like Yuri Podolyaka used as an opportunity to blame Gerasimov and RU command in general of incompetence, totally ignoring the fact that UKR as well moving their large forces in columns (which RU presented plenty of evidence of destruction over the years and even recently even in Kursk oblast, e. g. a column of 9 vehicles just two days ago by 810th separate guards marine brigade) and even if it was a smaller column it still was stuck in traffic jam organized by TSIPSO and military bloggers who were spreading panic). The same bloggers also overhyped the idea of the imminent Kursk NPP capture, again, totally ignoring the facts (even if UKR can drive special forces there risking getting cut from the main forces, the NPP is well defended by a national guard regiment and there is no chance that UKR may hold it).
Very well written general resumé of the situation
I would contest only one point -that this incursion has put a stop to the China Brazil peace plan diplomacy
VVP and Russia have their own statements to make about 'negotiating' or not (as may Ukraine, NATO etc) but this does not impact nor preclude the BRICS diplomatic effort
VVP is aware that Russia is now bound in to several large organisations that were created to bring about a multipolar world, and replace the bipolar focus of the previous (for us or against us) - as well as Joint Security alliances, in particular with China
RF may continue with the battlefield, but others are laying the ground for future peace - this is what allies are for
Agree. You have just answered the question so many always have - "Why doesn't China do anything and why does it sometimes seem that they are working against Russia?". Answer: They are allies towards one goal (a multi-nodal world) with differing foci and responsibilities.
In the crucible of the SMO, the multi-nodal world is birthing itself from the tactics & mind-set [ zero-sum; hegemonic ] of the uni-polar world, reforging those tools & formulae into a novel schema.
Had the Istanbul negotiation yielded a settlement in March 2022, it would have preempted the trajectory & calculus of the multi-nodal blueprint full-bore, dousing the crucible before the smelting process was complete
I do not understand why analysts refuse to see the obvious. Yes, Russia can destroy the Banderan army within Kursk and lock down the border. That is expensive in rubles, men and materiél and will come at the cost of destroying the larger Banderan army in Donbas.
The SMO is a war, a large war. Allowing one third of the Banderan army to sit in an empty region of Kursk and be destroyed over the next two monrhs doesn't really matter beyond western PR and short term optics.
In totality, the globe is at war and GloboHomo is getting it's unlubed ass-hole raped culturally,diplomatically, economically and militarily. The fun part is GloboHomo is raping itself, so it's not even a crime. I can't explain how GloboHomo can rape itself anymore than I can explain why the moon is made of Swiss cheese. Some shit is beyond explanation.
The China's peace plan is back on the shelf for now and using the pendulum principle everyone is waiting for Trump to roll out his peace proposal if he wins.
For Russia and China a Kamala Harris victory is better because she does not offer any peace plans. She does not raise the Ukrainian issue at all, it is not her strong point. If she comes to power, she will try to quietly throw all this Biden legacy into the trash bin.
Trump has already made Ukraine part of his election campaign; he will try to impose something on Russia. Trump will come and start convincing Russia that we should stop the war. What will Trump offer Russia to stop it? He has nothing.
It is obvious that Trump will pursue a pro-Israeli and anti-Iranian policy in the Middle East. In relation to China, he will be ardently anti-Chinese. And in relation to Russia, it will rather be a policy of pressure with the aim of breaking contacts with China and Iran. Guys, you can take all of Ukraine, we don’t care, but you must cool down in relations with Iran and China.
If the Democrats come to power, then perhaps there will be no tough confrontation with Iran, they are trying to put the brakes on the Iranian-Israeli conflict which is also the Russian and Chinese position. And they know how to negotiate with China. This is good for the world. Who needs a world war that could have a nuclear character in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region?
If Trump comes to power, it will create big risks for Russia and for the whole world. Kamala Harris is a puppet who memorizes her speeches. That’s good for Russia and China because they are dealing with an understandable machine that has already been outplayed in the Ukrainian crisis, both politically and logistically. Kamala Harris will simply cut the budgets for Ukraine, and this topic will be forgotten, just like Afghanistan was forgotten.
I would think Biden is just a tool used by the same masters as Harris is. Those masters are amongst others the military industrial complex. That's one reason for the war. What Harris says is irrelevant, she is an idiot, and the policy under her rule will be independent of what she is able to communicate.
So if it's the same masters, why would the policy change much by changing figure heads?
I don't believe Trump is interested in war anywhere. Our problems are cascading toward the bottom faster than people realize. Even the ardent Rachel Maddow fans will realize we are shit-boxxed by the end of October.
As usual, you explain the bigger picture contained within the frame using no more or less than the words necessary.
Allow me to put in my two phoenigs (sic).
The WEF and it's minions, particularly the US Senate pawns and the executive suite, do not want peace. Probably half of the American people don't want peace. We are a mentally retarded and debauched people that has been thoroughly propagandized since 1945 and the nuke option is on our table. In other words, the world is probably fucked.
If you start writing a Substack I will read it.
Good analysis. Well thought out and reasonably likely.
Uh its the US election--keep the machine oiled and running until then--it can collapse anytime after the election--simple
What is TSIPSO?
Ukraine's Center for Information and Psychological Operations
Terrific. Thank you
Vlad K, you made exellent points and correct conclusions, my friend. Sources of information are very important. Col.Vladimir Truhan is highly educated, very intelligent & experienced military professional that one can really learn from ; he pairs well with Andrei Martyanov's expertise ( for anyone interested & English speaking - I'd highly recommend Andrei's blog , his books & u-tube channel ). In Russian media and the sphere of bloggers there are soooo many of those like Podoliaka, Montian , Zvinchuk( Rybar), Tsargrad , Cassad, TwoMajors( Два Майора) & ect., &ect., and all those journa-whores pretending to be military " experts" who have no idea what they're talking about, all these bs pushers & " critics " of Russian MOD & Russian leaders ,--- it's nauseating and infuriating ! So many times these people have been cought on lies and still they have thousands & even millions subscribers ,-- it's rediculous. Simplicius must thoroughly check his Telegram sources before he presents their statements to his audience as facts and forms his own opinion. After all, we know how much money already TSIPSO recieved last year to work in Russian info space with " military experts" & journos- bloggers. One of very few trully good journalists out there who has a very good understanding of the events is Marat Khairullin who lives and works among the Russian fighters in Donbass , -- he has exellent reports some of which are translated to English.
The problem with Martyanov is he never admits to being wrong nor does he criticize the Russian government when they do indeed mess up.
He does admit russia has its problems. There is also the fact that he came to the US 30 years and is an American citizen.
When was the last time the American administration admitted they were wrong? NEVER
Martyanov isn't the Russian administration, so your comparison is far off the mark. No, Andrei does not admit to any Russian mistakes, and in fact goes out of his way to mock those who do. This includes earlier this year when Andrei decided to pick on Simplicius on two occasions.
kit klarenberg on X has made a case for that fact that this was a British operation intended among other things to get the US to allow its weapons to be used in RU proper i.e. presenting it with a fait accompli similar to Israel killing Haniyeh. the dims would prefer that Ukraine not be an issue at all in the campaign - too many other things to defend - with the risk that an 'October surprise' could backfire. the validity of his thesis is reinforced by the US blocking the use of Storm Shadows in Kursk as reported by the Times. he also has a great article on tony blair & kosovo on the 25th anniversary "Top secret papers reviewed by The Grayzone reveal Tony Blair demanded strikes on civilian targets in Yugoslavia days before NATO attacked them." while the 'common wisdom' is that blair was bush's poodle on Iraq the record on other events seems to be the opposite. remember 'Russiagate' effectively started in the UK.
It is obvious that the incursion was planned by NATO and with US domestic politics in mind.
Fumbles alright. Huge oil depot got hit, still losing territory in kursk, and a main ferry got sunk. How many terrorist attacks is Russia going to allow to happen before they fight a real war?
Either the Russian government kicks into gear or the Russian population forces them to, whether they like it or not
Riiight. Somewhere in mid-2030s, lol.
Seriously, it seems obvious by now that even most well-intended Westerners can't hold it long enough in them to do proper war. Must be some cultural design flaw that Putin exploits so well. I blame Hollywood in part. Or should I be thankful?
If over 200 FABs a day and over 2000 AFU casualties a day is not a real war, IDK what to tell you. It far exceeds the exaggerated losses of the sunk ferry, destroyed oil depot, and many other pinprick attacks. And Kursk is another meatgrinder for AFU reserves.
If you expect Russia to engage in a war that you can easily understand and which logic you can easily follow, I'm sorry to disappoint you, but neither the General Staff nor Mr. Putin owe anything to anyone. They will prosecute a war in a way, which only historians will be able to fully appreciate. And if it was another way, Russia would have lost long ago.
Let's send Jerm to Toretsk and then get his/her/its opinion.
Ukraine isn't losing 2,000 troops a day. Get out of here with that. This shits went on long enough and the Russian civilians are paying for it. Russia gets embarrassed on a weekly basis now. The west knows there will be zero repercussions. There's many Russian journalists that agree with me. Fight a real war or gtfo.
"isn't losing 2,000 troops a day" — and the colossal military graveyards don't appear all over UKR, and there are no signs of the AFU degradation (e.g. when companies have only 10-15 troops left), and mobilization is going crazy not because they need to replenish the losses, and Russian 200 FABs a day don't hit anyone, and UKR still have a lot of Soviet vehicles and don't have to use a huge variety of western-produced vehicles, and UKR don't play in only degrading defense for over a year now (except Kursk hail mary incursion which turned into another meatgrinder and will end rather soon), and so on and so on. Perhaps you're misinformed or just don't want to analyze the facts...
Regarding "Russian journalists", well, I have news to break. The vast majority of them are not journalists but just bloggers (many were "expert" virologists during COVID pandemic, ha-ha) and RU has freedom of speech, so they can say whatever they want. Most of them are just hysterical morons (or straightforward SBU/GUR plants promoting TSIPSO narratives, there some as well). The Western media are happy to reprint them and present them as authoritative source. Well, misinforming the opponent is a good strategy, isn't it?
This right here itself is pathetic and embarrassing.
"In the past month alone, Ukraine has dealt serious damage to at least three Russian airfields—Lipetsk, Morozovsk, and the Marinovka base in Volgorod just yesterday. Then there have been the new oil terminal hits, with the Rostov one a few days ago being a particularly grievous example. Now they’ve destroyed, what’s being called by some, one of the last functioning oil ferries in Crimea with a hit last night in Kavkaz."
If you quoted one part, perhaps you will read the rest of the Simplicius analysis and start thinking. Or, if you believe UKR is so strong and capable, just sit and wait until RU collapses. As Putin once said, "we will catch a cold at your funeral" :)
What Putin says is 1 thing, his actions are important too, esp. for the home crowd.
G'day Vlad, you will get very tired trying to reason with a troll and it also is very unrewarding. There are about half a dozen patrolling this site and Jerm is one of them.
Cherry pick much?
You're another one of those deranged State Doomers. 🤣🤡
Jerm, you forgot to add that : Russians run out of misiles, Russians fight with shovels , Russians get chips from the washing machines for their Kinzhals &ect, and ukies already won 33 times.
If you think about it - RU forces are advancing only on one front - Pokrovsk direction. Everywhere else the front is static.
Compare that to the start of Operation Bagration, where a multi-thousand km front was being simultaneously assaulted in multiple directions and Kharkov/Odessa/etc were rapidly taken by the Red Army.
Yep. For ukraine to be losing 2,000 soldiers a day Russia sure can't seem to take advantage of it
***An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
...and not a very good one
How are they not fighting a realwar? They have hit Kiev and Ukraine with everything they have barring the reserves held in place for war with NATO.
Would it be nice to have such an industrial military complex that missiles were unlimited? Absolutely, but that is a manufacturing/logistics issue that takes time to rectify.
The west has faced many repercussions including a couple thousand dead western mercenaries, approaching 1 trillion spent, increasing destabilization at home, increased inflation due to disrupted supply routes and geopolitical turmoil.
Those Russian journalists might as well be westerners, using juvenile terms such as "red lines". Chest beating chicken hawk neocons and slightly slicker neolibs.
Shooting down western ISR? That is a valid argument, but pretending it is some sort of logical given is silly and sophomoric.
Russia obviously doesn't want war with NATO at this point, and why should they when they are winning? Piecemeal approach is best.
Russia is fighting a real war, to say otherwise is dumb. There are valid criticisms of some methods, sloppiness in the Russian Miltary structure. There was still a lot of corruption and geriatric thinking going in, but the overall plan, general execution and leadership have all been really solid.
I think there are those who bought into the hype about the relative power of the Russians vis a vis NATO, and that has led to a general misunderstanding of what the reality actually is. Thusly the screamers..."Russia just needs to kick more ass, why are they not?".
>How are they not fighting a realwar? They have hit Kiev and Ukraine with everything they have barring the reserves held in place for war with NATO.
They very much haven't.
>have barring the reserves held in place for war with NATO
If those reserves existed, they'd have used them in Kursk.
really?
You don't know what the fuck you're talking about, do you?
Then explain to me where the reserves are then and why they aren't at Kursk if they exist?
No they haven't. They are still partying hard on western tax payers money in Kiev. They literally haven't done anything there
ah a new troll !!
Jerm has been around for ages doomin' n ' gloomin'
Jerm is simplicicius.... ;-) Jerm generates posts.
Jerm, embarrassed by whom?
Who cares what the West thinks?
Reacting to provocations is exactly why Ukraine carries them out. And you want to give them success by doing what they ask?
Look, the key battle is in Donbas, win there and nothing else matters, not even Kursk.
Russia is winning the Economic, the Financial and the Diplomatic Wars. They are winning militarily too.
There is no need to panic.
Russia also already won the arms race.
Does Vlad have your phone number so he can call you every morning ? No. You didn't even give it to him. So what did you expect ? So you gtfo !
IOI Wtf are you talking about? Do you yourself even know?
I'm mocking anyone who thinks that they are smarter than the Russians winning this war. Is it not obvious ? I'm am laughing hysterically at all the armchair generals, the same ones who gaze over their fat decrepit bodies when the 'game' is on and scream "That guy can't (run/skate/catch) ! Get him the fuck off the (field/ice) !!) Just before they start getting winded climbing the basement stairs for another beer. The ones that think if only they were running this war, it would have been over in a day or two. ................................ Now... I thought we were both part of the same wolf pack Memento. You let me down Comrade.
Yes…Russia should slaughter more Ukrainian civilians and destroy their country so that people who don’t understand what a special military operation is can stop seeing Russia achieve the goals that Putin laid out in his speech when he declared that SMO. Maybe some people here should read it.
Does Russia want to be nice or does Russia want to win?
feral dumpster
Brilliant logic.
**An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
Everything you state is true, however you leave out 1 essential aspect: perception.
Yes, Putin/Russia conducts the war its own way, but if the Russian population's perception regarding success shifts, then your Mr. Putin will have a problem on his hands, regardless of his battlefield success.
Ngungu. Do you know much about Russia mate?
Invading Russia is not going to make the Russians want to quit - these people burnt Moscow to the ground to deny it to Napoleon. the fought Hitler to a standstill when he had the best army the world had ever seen. They don't have a lot of quit in them.
The opposition to Putin comes from people who want to raze Kiev to the ground, not from people who want to let NATO take over . You've completely misread the situation, imo.
Very true, UA and US are trying desperately to provoke Russia into a full blown war in order to justify to the EU and US population a NATO intervention in Ukraine.
Amrit there is no appetite in the West for even the current level of engagement.
The political class is fighting Russia, the population has no way in it.
The US and NATO will intervene if they wish to. A pretext will be manufactured if and as needed.
>If over 200 FABs a day and over 2000 AFU casualties a day is not a real war, IDK what to tell you.
When a real attempt is made to isolate Ukraine from the West and Ukronazi leadership is taken out, then it will be a real war. Right now it isn't.
There's not 2000 ukraine soldiers killed a day. If there were Russia would be able to actually gain territory
That's the Russian Art of War.
As the saying goes "death by a thousand cuts" and it starts with one cut. One should not discount such pinprick attacks. Indeed, the fact that they happen is a weakness of FSB and SVR intelligence.
Let me remind you how the NKVD managed to infiltrate most of German sabotage schools and caused many saboteur groups to be destroyed by teaching them wrong information. That's not even mentioning that the NKVD/OGchP that managed to catch many German saboteur groups as they landed on Soviet territory (that was much larger than now). I doubt that such sabotage and drone strikes on Russian territory would have been possible under Soviet command.
How is not Russia fighting a real war? What are they holding back? What would Russia fighting a real war look like?
I think Russia is fighting hard, fighting a well organized, equipped and motivated enemy and winning handily.
But, if you think otherwise, what could be done differently?
For one they could shoot down the reaper drones over the black sea instead of being scared of the west. They could be hitting Kiev and ukraine MUCH harder. Quu5 allowing the west to cross red line after red line. If this shit show going on is a real war then I don't know what to tell them
Perhaps you're unaware, but RU also does plenty of flights over international waters, right next to the shores of UK, US, and other NATO countries. And RU is the adult in the room which intend to save itself and the world, not burn it in the nuclear fire. Besides, the effect of the Reaper drones operation is exaggerated.
Regarding "striking harder"—well, RU does use plenty of FABs and they're extremely deadly. Why not strike Kiev with more missiles—RU already destroyed plenty of military facilities there so I believe there is not much left to hit (and RU is not interested in killing Zelensky and his goons—RU doesn't want to see someone more competent taking their place). UKR doesn't put much military production in this region as they would be vulnerable. RU does hit plenty of other targets regularly, e.g. just yesterday new targets in Odessa, but UKR is tight-lipped about any losses.
You may be right about not shooting down the reaper over Black Sea, as Russia's own flights are also in internationational skies. How about giving lethal weapons to Hoothis? The west has long been using its puppets to kill Russians, why could not Russia start doing the same?
Houthis have shot down 7(!) reaper drones over their country. Who do you think is supplying them with the high tech AA?
The houthis are the only ones not scared to shoot them down. You're correct
Yeah, well they have lost everything worth losing already. So what else do they have to lose?
Let's see what the outcome of the UKR-RUS war will be, I do not think Ukraine stand a chance after the Kursk debacle.
Difference is Russia isn't doing terrorist attacks when they do it. Every time a reaper is in the black sea they are doing it for a terrorist attack. And Russia knows it but they're too scared to shoot it down
Terrorism is the act of the weak.
Yes. So is not responding to terrorist attacks carried out against you
What video game told you that?
Your juvenile petulant outrage won't stop the Russians from taking a cold and measured approach to this conflict. If you want unhinged degenerates then support Israel. Just look at what fighting a war with emotions and spite gets you.
I swear some of you Pro Russian folks are emotionally unstable charlatans. 🤦🏼♂️
I'd say the many Russian civilians and soldiers that have died and will be dying to the new US approved strikes in Russian territory would agree with you. The theatre massacre should have been the last straw. But keep being ok with that
No offence, Jerm, but really,what exactly do you know of warfare and of Russian Art of War, ha? Do you have any military education ? Experience? Do you know what military strategy is, do you how to calculate balance of forces, do you know how much , for instance , mathematics involved in it ? Russia 's General Stuff is fricken older than America as a country. You type here such a rediculous crap from your couch that it looks like a 5 years old does it, ffs. Too much Hollywood and Western BS is in your head. Educate yourself or stop already.
Like WWII, that was surely measured and went as slowly as possible, right?
Just morons that have no clue what's going on.
What Jerm means is that they are fighting the war he and many have been narrativized to believe--ie a hollywood war. Its pathetic really- too many get their"knowledge" from western movies and "educational" propaganda
Those many include Western military academies and Pentagon . They just don't know what strategy is, they don't know what the real war is. They are not even on the same level as Russia.
>How is not Russia fighting a real war? What are they holding back? What would Russia fighting a real war look like?
As a starter:
1) Take out Ukronazi leadership
2) Shut down the trains (and thus AFU logistics)
3) Shut down the grid
4) Block transport connections between Ukraine and Poland and Romania.
Those four steps can be carried out in a single missile strike within the span of a couple hours, and will ensure winning the war within six months of being taken.
They have not been.
Why?
Putin is in on NWO/WEF scam and like Zelensky, Idea is eliminate young men who are strong enough to resist it. War is not meant to be won just kill one anothers young men and the two Jewish presidents are facilitating that.. Then They'll be moving hundreds of millions of Africans Indians and central Asians in Ukraine and Russia to alleviate poverty/warming in coming years and to work Blackrocks properties of course.
It gonna be funny when Ukrainian and Russians supporters realize their support was all for nothing if not so tragic.
You are supporting Slavic genocide.
Oh and I know Putin's biography and everything else is so secretive and whitewashed but his mothers maiden name is Solomon which is Jewish making him Jewish. https://www.quora.com/Was-Vladimir-Putins-mother-Jewish/answer/Nick-Levin-6?ch=10&share=233c19d9
Thanks Adolf. But if I need to hear from an arsehole, I can just fart.
I'm starting to really believe this to be the case. He's in on it.
Such a BS about Putin's mother being Jewish !😂 And people who don't know jack dreck about Slavic philology & language keep spreading this crap , it's annoying ,damn it . Putin's mother name was Maria Ivanovna Shelomova/ Ше'ломова with an accent on the first syllable. Her father's name was Ivan ShElomov . Not Solomon , not Shlomo and has NOTHING to do with the hebrew name Solomon what so ever. Last name Shelomova is pure Russian and has a root in the Old Slavic word ШЕЛОМ( shElom) with the accent on the first syllable, the later form of this Slavic word is ШОЛОМ ( shOlom) and in modern Russian is ШЛЕМ ( shlem) --- all of which mean HELMET, the one that ancient Russian warriors used to were. Look at the pictures of that helmet / shelem/shelom/ shlem. President Putin roots are Russian all the way on both sides of his parents, Russian peasants actually from the region of Tver'. No Solomons there, not one.Kapish ? Good. Vladimir Lenin had Jewish grandpa though, Putin has no Jews in his blood. If anything Putin might have Tatar blood like lots of Russians do after Tatar-Mongol invasion centuries ago.
The west has now authorized ukraine to strike within Russia. These weapons used for this should be destroyed before they even reach ukraine. But they won't. And the citizens and soldiers will suffer because it.
"JUST IN: 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine will soon be able to attack 'any part' of Russia."
But ukies have been using those weapons all this time anyway without authorisation . Also ,clown Zelensky isn't even a president anymore according to Ukraine's constitution.
What you mean I think is start throwing nuclear bombs around. You and everyone else who takes this same line.
Let's get it straight:
. nuclear weapons are going to kill civilians wholesale, no doubt about it.
. nuclear weapons invite a similar response which could easily lead to the deaths of millions.
. there is no NEED for nuclear weapons.
However there ARE things the Russian military machine could do. They were exposed at Kharkiv time. They were exposed by Progozhin. They are exposed now.
But think: most all of these things are problems because of historic facts: the corruption and inefficiency etc. that was endemic in USSR times and right after.
AND that historic rottenness is still around everywhere. It is the 'environment' within which Putin has to operate.
I think he's doing a great job.
And he could use some reliable help and some understanding of the truth of the situation.
Not more jeers, boos and catcalls from the cheap seats.
>there is no NEED for nuclear weapons.
Wrong.
There was no need for nuclear weapons until that first NATO strike on the New Year festivities in Belgorod on December 30th.
After it was not answered, NATO continued to escalate, and there was no answer to any of those subsequent escalations.
Now Russia has been invaded by NATO, and there is still not answer.
So what do we have in terms of precedents that have been established?
1) NATO can fire missiles into the center of Russian cities and kill civilians whenever the psychopaths there feel like it, and all that the Kremlin will do is launch verbal protests from Zakharova plus yet another reiteration of its firm position that it will not be baited by "provocations"
2) NATO can fire missiles and drones at Russian military bases deep inside Russia, destroying ammo depots and airframes, and again there will be no response
3) NATO can invade Russia, once again with zero consequences for NATO.
How do you reestablish deterrence after you have allowed those violations to become established precedents?
Nukes are the only option left, and even a demonstrative strike may not be sufficient, whole countries will have to be wiped out to reinstill fear in the rest.
I will do you a once off favour at great cost in time and effort to myself. I'll print your post and intersperse my responses. If the system will allow such a long post. If it won't it'll get terminated abruptly without explanation.
====================
>there is no NEED for nuclear weapons.
--------
Wrong.
There was no need for nuclear weapons until that first NATO strike on the New Year festivities in Belgorod on December 30th.
-----------------
My reply: That did NOT create a need.
-----------------------
After it was not answered, NATO continued to escalate, and there was no answer to any of those subsequent escalations.
------------------------------------
My reply: The answer has always been there you simply fail to see or acknowledge or accept it.
-----------------------------------------------
Now Russia has been invaded by NATO, and there is still not answer.
---------------------------------
My reply: There is a man's answer: 'Don't try to distract me, child'.
-----------------------------------
So what do we have in terms of precedents that have been established?
-------------------------------------------
My answer: Persistent manifestation of principled and effective adult response.
-----------------------------------------------
1) NATO can fire missiles into the center of Russian cities and kill civilians whenever the psychopaths there feel like it, and all that the Kremlin will do is launch verbal protests from Zakharova plus yet another reiteration of its firm position that it will not be baited by "provocations"
----------------------------------------------
My reply: Of course NATO can do whatever it likes. Just like murderers can and do.
But 'all that the Kremlin will do is launch verbal protests' is ludicrous in view of massive progress in Donbas on the one hand, refusal to take the bait on the other and overall manifestation of an army that knows what it is doing.
------------------------------------------
2) NATO can fire missiles and drones at Russian military bases deep inside Russia, destroying ammo depots and airframes, and again there will be no response
-------------------------------------------------
My reply: The allies (Donbas and Russia) have been and will continue to fire drones and missiles wherever and whenever they wish into any Kiev Ukraine territory they choose. It's not that the Allies need to respond. It is that this is the belated and feeble response of Kiev (meaning NATO and USA), enfeebled as they are.
--------------------------------------------------
3) NATO can invade Russia, once again with zero consequences for NATO.
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My reply: The consequences are death. Once again it is not a question of the Allies to come up and present 'consequences' - these are the consequences of the Allies steady destruction in the battlefield theater of all that Kiev Ukraine had (long gone) and all that USA could offer ( nearly gone) and all that NATO had (gone, to all intents and purposes). This is the consequence that the Allies bear. They choke this snake to death and it whips around in its agony. It is for the Allies to just keep on choking.
------------------------------------------
How do you reestablish deterrence after you have allowed those violations to become established precedents?
-----------------------------------------
My reply: Deterrence? What deterrence do you mean? And what do you mean 'reestablish' ? What/when was established?
Let's stick with the most obvious: presumed topic of this thread: invasion of Russia.
What 'deterrance' was there? There was NONE. Bar sloth, organisation etc. Because that was the start of all this. Do you not know?
They work slowly. They plan decades ahead if necessary.
Do you not know? The plan is to 'Balkanise' Russia and then pick off the individual states.
You understand 'Balkanise' ? To break up into little pieces each one thinking themselves natural and necessarily separate entities. Usually on ethnic lines. Doesn't matter to the exploiters. What matters to them is that you're small, new, impoverished and in need of all kinds of help.
So that's the plan. To 'pick off' these new 'Balkan States' by giving them 'Aid', money, loans, arms, infrastructure investment etc. Get the idea?
And 'they' - USA we're talking here mainly but UK close behind and generally global (i.e. couldn't really be said to 'belong' to any particular nation) mega financial interests - anticipate and will reap massive profits from this.
Now that's what this is about.
And that's what needs 'deterring'.
And by god it is being 'deterred'.
They see they've shot themselves in the foot big time.
They all see it. Except the Western politicians who must be by any measure the most pathetically stupid and amoral creatures on the planet.
Everyone else sees it.
Everyone outside the Western world, that is.
And those within the Western world with an ounce of intelligence.
They are thoroughly 'deterred'. They no longer think to Balkanise Russia.
They will be seeking ways to maximise profit by doing business with Russia.
Right now.
-------------------------------------------------------
Nukes are the only option left, and even a demonstrative strike may not be sufficient, whole countries will have to be wiped out to reinstill fear in the rest.
--------------------------------------------------
My reply: that sentence by itself explains why talking to you is probably pointless.
But I've done my best.
I hope you wake up soon. :)
Thank you, your explanation has certainly done a great deal in furthering my understanding of the situation.
Well that's very good news. Thank you, Gisela. :)
I think we already know who we SHOULDN’T give the keys to the missile systems to…
And what do u wanna do about it ? Its called war or special op but there is no star wars full protective done yet
These are all tragic but ultimately insignificant pinpricks that are irrelevant to the geopolitical objectives Russia/China etc are seeking globally, as well as the specific objectives Russia is seeking in Ukraine.
So Jerm, I only have 1 question for you. Why are you sitting and typing from your little safe space, you should be leading the AZOV brigade into the battle and proving just how wonderful it is to be on the winning side?
Why would I want to fight for a terrorist organization that I don't support, you cuck? Just because I'm calling out russias cowardice doesn't mean I support ukraine. Nice clown take though
Then you should call that obscure Russian genius Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov and his team , call another genius Belousov and teach them what to do. Call Sergey Shoigu, call Sergey Lavrov . Heck, call straight up Putin and teach him , oh wise Jerm " with an IQ of a room temperature" how to run a country like Russia ( that you know zero about !) , because Putin is not reshaping the whole world right before our eyes the way you think he should.
While Putin wants to freed the Donbass and its associate oblasts, he doesn't want to kill the Ukrainian civilians. Now that's a real problem and he is working through it. The US on the other hand with help from Zelensky and his crew couldn't care less how many Ukrainian soldiers are killed.
An Internet troll is someone who enters an online discussion and posts comments designed to upset or disrupt the conversation.
"Dark Tetrad" personality traits include narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.
-psychology today
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
interesting. Thanks for that. Will pass it on. There's much tallk about Russia not doing anything about the attacks inside Russia. But I agree that the main object is the SMO and that is going smoothly, and has been given an opening because of this asymmetrical situation in Kursk and oil tanks. Rather off topic but surprising is that Modi has just be in Kiev and photographed hugging Zelensky - WTF ?? How does Russia feel about that inside BRICS ?
Modi went to Moscow a few weeks ago—it was his first visit after reelection. Modi and India are not an enemy to Zelensky and Ukraine so they can hug and kiss and do whatever they want. And Russia will only agree that it's fine—Russia promotes multi-polar world and non-interference in the affairs of other states. Exactly the thing India is doing now. Another question is why exactly Modi doing this and what will result from it. One thing is certain though—India didn't and will not engage in sanctions, and it will continue increasing trade with Russia for mutual benefits. How does Zelensky feel about this?
The Indians are friends with anyone who can make them a quick buck.
like saudis and erdogan
and Biden is different?
Anything wrong with that? AFAIK, every country looks after its own interests, esle they would be amiss
Oh, I'm not making any judgments. History will judge this current global economic system.
Indian here. India's foreign policy under Modi has finally matured to the point of looking out for the country's interests over vague principles. Thus India maintains relations with Saudi Arabia (Sunnis) AND Iran (Shias) to keep the oil flowing; it has defence contracts and equipment from Israel while also making generic statements about the Palestine conflict without picking sides - and has historically been using Soviet military systems but now has also started buying a few Western ones. As others have said, it's the sort of foreign policy any sane country would have.
I prefer sane but MORAL.
Morality has nothing to do with it. Ask the Americans, alleged allies of India but who continued to fund Pakistan, long responsible for fomenting terrorism in India, even after it was found they had been sheltering bin Laden. Or take any part of American foreign policy based on their exceptionalism bullshit narrative, invading other countries with impunity in the name of spreading democracy. International politics is everyone for themselves.
Sure, "Saint"... I'm sure you have never had a TRUE friend....
In the immediate aftermath of the USSR’s breakup, the Soviet banking system was dismantled and catastrophically restructured, as policymakers heeded the advice of American banking experts. As the economy went into a freefall, the ruble, now no longer supported by state regulations, spiraled into oblivion on the free market. The spot exchange rate at that point was 488 rubles per US dollar. The states that owed debts to USSR’s successor, Russia, either paid them back at extremely favorable market rates or refused to pay at all, citing the cessation of the USSR as a legal entity.
India on the other hand, under the leadership of then-Prime Minister Narsimha Rao and Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, finalized a rupee-ruble deal where the ruble was artificially valued at a thousand times more than its current market value. Therefore, the exchange rate was pegged not at the prevailing 488 rubles/dollar but at 0.78 rubles/dollar - the rate which existed in late 1989. Despite facing a balance of payments crisis with critically low foreign exchange reserves, New Delhi sought the full repayment of its 9.9 billion ruble debt in a manner which was favorable to the nascent Russian Federation.
Source: Not an "Indian" source, but Russian....
https://www.rt.com/india/600536-tackling-rupee-ruble-dilemma/
So? Not one bit of that matters now.
Honestly, Russia and India seem to have a good relationship. The screen name is a reference to something you wouldn’t understand. As for the personal insult, shove it up your ass.
zelensky like a dead man walking. I would not care less what zelensky thought of it but I wonder what Putin thought of it. its treacherous behavior even if it doesn't get called out but BRICS and the perfect world suffers from it And Putin didn't think much of Israel for suppllying Ukraine with weapons. Maybe Modi wants to sell weapons to Ukraine ? I have no idea but that would bring trouble, I'm sure. I don't know - how can you be a partner to someone who stabs you in the back ?
It's your point of view. RU doesn't consider it a treacherous behavior at all. Just re-read my comment. I'm Russian and I know well it's the point of view that RU foreign policy experts are expressing. Modi paid Moscow a highly respected visit right after reelection and, well, we can imagine Putin discussed UKR affairs in a great detail. And I cannot imagine Putin saying (or expressing in any other way) anything among the line "don't talk with my enemy". It would be silly.
>RU doesn't consider it a treacherous behavior at all.
Which does not make it not treacherous.
Especially when you consider that India has been supplying Ukraine with weapons, but has not helped Russia with weapons at all.
Your problem is that you think as you were likely raised in the West - that the entire world is a zero sum game - you are either with us or against us. Your people in general have lost all knowledge and strength of real diplomacy or what negotiations and give-and-take efforts are all about. It's not your fault - it's the box you live in and it's difficult to get out of it. But you need to try.
I have no idea who you are referring to now that there are a bunch on comments
Could it be that whilst Putin can't talk to Zelensky, Modi can?
India doesn't have to choose between Russia and Ukraine. But if they did they'd choose Russia every time.
Since Zelenskii doesn't decide anything, I am not sure what point there is in talking to him.
India's choice is not between Russia and Ukraine. It is between Russia and Ukraine's western owners.
Exactly - RF and India signed extensive agreements recently - and, after all, are the founder members of BRICS
Because of India's membership of the US led Quad, and other collaborations, various US elements have been claiming that Modi is acting on behalf of the US, something the US can not claim for the China peace plan
Also this allows Ukraine to claim that Inida is working with them for peace
All such claims are, sort of, true, peace serves all sides and it serves everyone to claim they are working towards it -
In the hegemon's uni-polar approach, one coerces, thwarts & blockades.
The essence of BRICS+ is that of the non-aligned: each country stays out of the other's affairs.
India is free to conduct r'ships which align w/ its sovereignty. Ditto Russia. Obviously commencing the SMO in the first place was a big test of how committed the original BRICS members were to Russia's freedom to exercise its own sovereignty. Passed w/ flying colors.
BRICS+, therefore, has strengthened internally as a result of acing the test
Exactly!
This is why India will never be an ally of the USA.
The USA demands vassalage from its clients.
India is too independent for that.
You realize that large quantities of Indian 155mm shells have been in the hands of the AFU for quite some time now?
How did that happen?
Meanwhile Russia has many billions in rupees (once trade was switched from dollars to national currencies) that it has no use for, but the Indian government somehow never thought to mobilize its own substantial MIC to help the Russian war effort and repay that debt?
Make that make sense to me in the context of the BRICS, please...
yeah
lol
us would have somehow coerced india to sell those shells anyways(i.e. buying the shells itself and donating to ukraine).
Wait--patience
It is called diplomacy in the multi-polar world.
The Kursk AFU offensive is a "woke" insignificant maneuver destined to yield a "woke" disastrous outcome strategically. The AFU Kursk offensive is a failed plan resulting in huge losses as Russian forces continue to destroy soldiers and war materials. Alexander Mercouris and Big Serve think the AFU Kursk invasion is doomed to fail and so do I. Russia is winning where it counts. This conflict is not a media event that can be staged and manipulated because the only thing that matters is decided on the battlefield where Russia dominates. Everything else is irrelevant and inconsequential. And, if NATO steps in, I predict this war will escalate drawing in China, North Korea, and or some other country into what will be known as World War 3. And we have a front-row seat to a spectacle the world has never known. Prepare for War. https://youtu.be/VE03Lqm3nbI
I agree with the analysis that this operation is and will be a military failure but I don't think that is the objective. However taking the military side first I posited on MoA the question of whether Ukraine would be in a militarily better situation if the advance continued say for another 25km? Clearly not as it would lose many men and assets achieving such a thing and have a longer line to defend, and allow the RF to deploy even more troops which cannot be deployed in the SMO areas (ie units with conscripts).
The UAF is on its last legs and this is a PR victory, taking possibly its last reserves and shoving them into a fire sack. Sure they rolled over a light screening force of Border Guards but looking at the analysis above seem now to be outnumbered c 2 or 3 to 1 by formations of the Russian Army. However in PR terms it has been a great success - the Russians appear to have been rattled, NATO is encouraged and the western press tell us that Ukraine can still win. All before the election. Add this to attacks on Russian infrastructure and there might be a hope in some quarters that this might encourage Russia to negotiate on NATO terms. [ha ha].
But what was the option? Engage the Russia Army in a stand up fight in Donbas that was comprehensively destroying the UAF? So short of some sort of political surrender, this maybe was the Ukraine's only and best option. And there is still talk of NATO getting dragged in - that is formally to the shooting war. Now wiser heads must know that leads to WW3 but wisdom is in short supply just now. However continued escalation by NATO (and this is not a Z initiative) might have its objective of "scaring" the Russians to the peace table. I think the Russians are well past that point. Or maybe just a PR operation to keep the money flowing.
How TF does the word "woke" get applied to any of this? 🤯 It seems woke has become a harebrain buzzword that every charlatan throws around.
It’s a bit silly for sure
Woke is a far right buzzword, and there is in fact no such thing as woke
Far-right is a buzz word.
Nope the far right actually exists, you must nmbe far rughtml.
Denis. What does "Woke" mean in your World?
Look in the mirror for your answer.
Hmm, Woke is pretty impressive then. You should try it.
An ok news regurgitation and interesting technical details but a sort of overly conservative reading of the overall situation. The Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and other fronts are collapsing rapidly. Also, I saw today that Ukraine made no progress in Kursk and lost a couple of villages there... uh oh. I smell serious NATO desperation. The Kursk gambit is a military failure. Most knowledgeable sites are reporting big NATO losses there every day. I'd trade that for some PR any day. I wonder whether they can hold out there for a few months. They were apparently a major portion of NATO's best in ukraine.... getting chopped up in a pocket while the center in Donetsk and Luhansk is being bashed in.
Also, some sites reported buildups of NATO/ukrainian troops in the Kherson region and in Odessa and Nikolaev. The Russians apparently expect another NATO attempt at an offensive toward Crimea. Russia hit Odessa and Nikolaev with missile strikes. I'd fully expect them to try some desperate offensive there with all of the scraped together resources they can muster. However, if they do attempt it and it fails, they may be done.
Ukraine has no recourse but to continue feeding more troops into a cauldron-sized black hole which the Russians have now begun to shape & manage. They are kettling the AFU.
In this, a losing gambit, the OTAN mercs & the AFU had a Plan A but not a Plan B.
Didn't they learn the first time? what I love is just how many US/NATO troops are going to be part of this cauldron--captured and then trade bait--perfect right before the election.
Sun Tzu's famous Embarrassment Strategy seems to be working in Russia's favor
With the Ukrainian army in the south reduced to little more than infantry with lightly armoured wheeled vehicles and civilian cars, without the cover of the fortified urban areas and hills, a winter offensive over the steppe may prove very successful. Especially with no heating or electricity for the Ukrainians, and probably not enough winter equipment. The majority press-ganged Ukrainian soldiers may also just be happy to either surrender or go AWOL (the numbers of which have been jumping lately). While the civilian population fights the press-gangers in the cold and dark.
Another consideration comes to mind: w/ the percentage of OTAN mercs involved in Kursk & the quantity of OTAN-supplied weaponry deployed now against Russians on Russian soil, OTAN is more publicly & explicitly fighting this war than ever before.
That is to say, a select few OTAN members actually table-topped this invasion. The UK no doubt led the charge, w/ enthusiastic support from the U.S. But Scholz has said he knew nothing about the Kursk planning, for instance.
If this is true, that most OTAN members probably were not enfranchised, I wonder what toll this takes on the vaunted OTAN unity.
It may well be that the UK & the U.S. & the always-eager Ukrainians hijacked this venture independently of the alliance, assuming that OTAN of course would go readily along. A radical escalation of this type may not be at all what the other members, who believed they had joined on to a defensive alliance, would have allowed or willingly chosen. ]
For example, it is passingly strange to see troops in Kursk sporting Wehrmacht helmets, summoning up the most fiendish aspects of Germany's wartime past as they taunt & harass elderly villagers in Kursk. It is surreal, moreover, that an assortment of nationalities--U.S, Brits, Poles, Ukrainians--can coalesce into a singular focus without teasing up their own latent tribal loyalties. They fight Russians on Russian soil & speak a multitude of languages: the Russians speak as one.
Public comments aside, it is difficult not to feel tensions simmer in OTAN. Hegemonic *peace* is taking more of a toll on the alliance than the efforts to prosecute this war, and that's saying something. After 31 months, the provocations aren't working. The escapades are non-strategic.
Hegemonic *peace* is driving OTAN off a cliff.
Agreed this has the whiff of Sandhurst about it.
We are obsessed with Special Ops and Special Forces.
Probably because we can't afford a proper Army any more.
It's Sandhurst's handwriting all over the place indeed, including reappearance of Challengers. I won't get into finer details, but this is a trademark UK operation, so when other alliance members claim to be in the dark, there might be actually more truth to that than one might expect.
Can you elaborate on "Sandhurst operations" and what are the trademark signs of a UK operation?
Sandhurst = incompetence . Trademark -- terrorism of civilians. That's all they can do.
Truth be told, I can, but I'm not hosting my own Substack here and I lack the determination of the likes of John Galtsky who seems to be relentless in his ability to explain stuff. And there's a lot of explaining to do. So in the end, I can't be arsed. But I'll give you hints. Look up whom did Orban visit during his shuttle diplomacy voyage, then take notes of each time Challenger tanks appeared on the front, then - when was the last time an Indian leader visited post-Soviet Kiev.
Basically, if you draw the map correctly, you'll get a contour of UK's banishment from the negotiation table and subsequent return there once it acquired some bargaining chips. This is all Kursk is about, really.
Lol imagine thinking that any NATO country has agency.
They don't when it comes to going against US interest.
I think of NATO as satrapies that are forced to send a levy to their Suzerain when called upon. Any attempts to go their own way will result in invasion or regieme change.
I echo the sentiments of Shurygin and Evstafyev.
Ukraine isn't fighting Russia. They are fighting Putin - and don't be surprised if they take him down with them.
Well, the Confederacy took Lincoln with them.
Shurygin studied in Lvov (UKR) and he's a known populist b'shitter. FABs, TOS, and bullets are as deadly now as when there is a "real" war, isn't it? He's just unhappy that it's not declared as one and RU prefers attrition warfare instead of doing it the Ukraine way (right, jumping into meatgrinders). It's a real war but nobody will declare it as this will cause a serious impact on trade, economy, international affairs, and other matters. UKR didn't declare a war yet it certainly fights for its survival. RU economy is booming, salaries growing much faster than the inflation rate, people are supporting Putin like never before, and Kursk terrorist incursion only fortified opinion that the SMO was completely justified and Putin did the right thing. Of course you will hear a lot of fringe opinions but please note that there is an ongoing psy-op campaign by TSIPSO and 6th column which are either SBU/GUR plants or useful idiots (I've elaborated about this in my analysis in my other large comment).
What is your opinion as to why there has not been any response - no counter attack, nor large scale deep strike - for Kursk?
Too busy taking back the whole of eastern Ukraine. Have you not noticed?
Revenge manoeuvres are always best served cold.
Eastern Ukraine? Outside of the Pokrovsk direction the front is static. I have my doubts about Pokrovsk being that big a deal as we are told. Likely it will be more of the same.
Russia is advancing all along the front. See Brian Berletic's latest New Atlas discussion of what are Ukrainian maps showing the advances- so not Russian propaganda. But it is measured, deliberate, moving to a plan designed to attrit Ukrainian resistance. There is no point Russia taking territory in a blast, which will just become the subject of constant re-engagements. That would be exhausting. Ukraine, Scipio, is not just being beaten. As a fighting force, it is being wiped out.
The Germans got wiped out as a force during WW2 once Operation Bagration started. In a year or so Soviet forces were in Poland having started in Ukraine.
That is true progress and attriting enemy forces.
Sure, Russia is moving with minor changes at the Front, with no real progress anywhere outside Pokrovsk.
Compare the progress to the first weeks of the War and now - the Front has stabilized. While I used to think like you, events in Kursk have made me rethink my position.
Take a better look at the 1000km front.
Alright tell me where are the offensives similar to Operation Bagration happening along the entire Front, outside Pokrovsk? There seems to be minor changes in the front only.
There is constant progress by the Russian, constant and on several directions. And if you zoom out -- it looks like a beutiful dance called Russian Art of War There is the book like that by Jaques Baud, very educational for some one like " Scipio Africanus".
I have read Jacques Baud. While I agree with him that the West misunderstands Russia, I am skeptical (especially after Kursk) that the Russian way of war is anything special.
Had this been the Soviet Union, there would have been no questions in my mind. But unfortunately, it is not.
No response??
What a fucking brain dead ignorant thing to say.
Russia is deleting Kursk trapped Ukro-Nazis in job lots, and taking ever bigger chunks of the Donbass.
Hell of a "no response"...
>RU economy is booming, salaries growing much faster than the inflation rate
What does that matter when NATO missiles are raining on Russian cities and military bases?
No. The west is fighting Putin, because it is always weirdly personal for this brittle hegemon. Just like they had it in for Assad. Where is Assad now?
If you know anything about Syria or know any Syrians, you will know that country is in appalling shape
That, Bash, was not my question.
Russia and Syria are not comparable, economically, politically, or indeed spiritually. But you did not raise a state, you raised a person. That is how the west reduces everything to something it thinks it can manage or at any rate, appear to manage. It tries to turn a conflict it is losing, into a claim for a specific bleeding head. That Bash, was my point.
In Syria case, they demonised Assad and ended up ruining the country and punishing the people. They are trying to do the same to Russia. It is an identical playbook, except that Russians have slightly easier time getting visas to EU/US
....except that like so much recent stuff the west has tried to engineer, it is failing.
With Syria, the template of how to fend off a malign hegemon was inchoate still, merely a prototype--if even--of what this SMO has fleshed itself out to be. An annealing had to happen.
These 31 months have been a tortured discovery of how to fight this war. One side rises to the intelligence, truly comprehends the method--the other doesn't. It's as if Russia's grasp has quickened in direct correlation to how Ukraine's grasp has slackened.
When OTAN-mercs & the AFU tried to change the subject w/ the Kursk incursion, Russia of course addressed the situation, but the focus of Russia's fight stayed steadily on the Donbass objective.
An odd battlefield alchemy is coming about. The impurities are burning away.
You talk so much shit your mouth must look like a rectum.
How is that relevant?
The West wants Russia's treasures/collateral--just ask Napoleon.
It is just an excuse, like with communism. End game is balkanization of Rus. That goal doesnt change with peeps in charge in Rus.
Some goals are as old as the hills and like moving mountains, as unattainable.
It's proffesional envy , that's why they hate Putin.
Ukieland aka PMC Open Air Conc Lager's job is to trigger balkanization, sorry, "decolonization" of Rus. They are not fighting Putin, their task is to cause the break up of Rus.
Been said publicly in many places, heck some ukie even said they would repay their debts with Rus oil and fur and diamonds.
Oh dear. You are aware that Putin has been in charge for over 20 years aren't you.
I suspect that old Vlad may.be a bit more cunning and ruthless than you expect.
Respectfully, stop being delusional.
Even Z-anons are finally waking up. Putin was installed by West and of course he's doing their bidding which is kill as many young virile slaves as possible so we can NWO the place. Just wait and watch.
Idiot
Keep your eye on the ball.
The ball is Russia's advance to take the whole of the Donbas. It is not going to be deflected from this as it can deal full on with the other issues at its own pace.
Meanwhile Kursk draws Ukrainian resource away from Kiev. Western propaganda is blinding its people to the fact that Ukraine is about to lose all the valuable stuff the west leveraged to nosebleed heights to fund this appalling SMO of its own, and has now doomed Kiev, meaning a massive new tide of west-heading refugees, with Zelenskiiy holed up in London just where he is not wanted at all, and all this will have happened while western propaganda was rattling around in some meaningless territory on the Russian border threatening to chuck bombs at Russian/ Russian held NPPs.
Ukraine has said it is bringing what war means, home to Russia.
Putin, who has always struck an exquisite balance in terms of proportionate response, will bring what war means home to the wider west. It will not be a case of- 'will NATO intervene directly?' The war will come to it and the question will be how it will respond. Expect a swift end to all this through a clear cut withdrawal of support for Ukraine and the agreement of new secure boundaries between Russia and the West. This is what Putin is playing for. It is just that the west has demonstrated now what that must mean. It must mean taking all Ukraine.
Putin has got very obvious NATO troops in his enveloping cauldron--its good start
The secure boundary & the sought-after neutrality are what OTAN could never give to Russia. In provocation after provocation VVP saw w/ sinus-clearing lucidity that the only way to manifest both for his country--security & neutrality--required doing so militarily
This right here is pathetic and proves my point about Russia getting embarrassed on a weekly basis. Letting the west crap all over them. There isn't any coping that can make this sound less pathetic as it does
"In the past month alone, Ukraine has dealt serious damage to at least three Russian airfields—Lipetsk, Morozovsk, and the Marinovka base in Volgorod just yesterday. Then there have been the new oil terminal hits, with the Rostov one a few days ago being a particularly grievous example. Now they’ve destroyed, what’s being called by some, one of the last functioning oil ferries in Crimea with a hit last night in Kavkaz."
So Ukraine claims to have shot down almost ten times more Kinzhals than Iskanders despite the former being about twice as fast as the latter and thus far harder to shoot down.
I guess Ukraine can't let go of all its lies.
ukraine claims to have shot down..... 1 million missiles.
Right, they claim it's a better chance to shot down kinzhal rather than tochka-u. The kicker is: Russia doesn't use tochka-u mussiles. It's just a bunch of lies as usual.
Makes one wonder what ukies have there to shoot down Kinzhals that no one knows about ?
My theory is that the Kinzhal's radar decoys work extremely well, and that the Ukrainians are actually pretty good at shooting down the Kinzhal's radar decoys, which enables them to claim to have shot down any, let alone as many as they claim.
I think they are just BS-ing, probably another begging campaing: give us more air defense, more tanks, more everything and some billions too.
They are also claiming 0.6% intercept rate of S300/S400. It is to support their claim that Russia is launching S300 missiles on gound targets. But S300 is air defense missile designed to hit light unarmored targets, not a concrete structures.
It's just a bunch of BS, that simple.
Great write up, Simplicius.
I always try to understand the SMO in Ukraine as part of a broader geopolitical chess game being played by Russia/China/BRICS, with objectives that are historic in nature and that change the way the world works.
These objectives are the establishment of a separate economic, military, political and socio-cultural system that rivals the parasitic financial "rules based order" that the West has built, and that in fact may dominate it.
The overall Russia/China strategy requires on extreme discipline and strategic patience. In particular, it relies on containing the West at all costs and not permitting the West to escalate the situation to open warfare, that may bring in nukes.
This means that all parties with an interest in what Russia/China are doing must accept that they cannot react/retaliate in ways that help the West, even when the West inflicts both lethal and humiliating hits. That is the price they must pay to achieve the long term broader objective.
In my view, we saw this strategic patience at play with Russia's urgent intervention to persuade Tehran against a massive Iranian retaliation against Israel.
We have seen the same approach in China's posture towards Taiwan. We are seeing it again in Moscow's posture towards Kiev/NATO, following the flagrant incursion into Kursk.
In respect to Ukraine, I think that Russia's pacing of the SMO is dictated more by the broader geopolitical objectives described above, and less by what's happening on the ground in Ukraine. The broader geopolitical objectives require a longer timeline to achieve & Ukraine has to fit into that timeline.
From this oerspective, it makes sense for Russia to continue steadily draining Ukraine, the EU & NATO of treasure, men and materiel, without creating a pretext for the West to escalate, and also becoming more powerful in economic, military and political terms. This approach works and has created huge pressure on the West, as we have seen for the last 2.5 years.
Of course, this approach also requires Moscow to take opportunities that arise. I see the Kursk incursion as more an act of desperation by the West than anything else. It was always a desperate "Hail Mary" PR exercise that was forced on Kiev/NATO, who decided to invade Kursk because of the pressure / weight of Russia's strategy in Ukraine.
Kursk is an opportunity for Russia. Moscow may decide not to react in any meaningful way, and to continue the policy of strategic patience/attrition. However, it may be that Moscow has determined that the West's idiotic Kursk adventure creates a pretext & opportunity to persuade the West and in particular DC, to sacrifice and walk away from their doomed Ukrainian proxy.
This would presumably require Russia to demonstrate to the West what Russian firepower is capable of when pushed to full war limits, for example by destroying all political centres in Kiev and / or Lvov, perhaps liquidating Zelensky and his top people, combined with a significant increase in intensity in military operations on the front line.
Again, it would need to be a demonstration to the West that is powerful enough to cause real fear in NATO/DC - a tricky thing to do given that NATO seeks to be run by irrational morons who cannot grasp the drastic situation they have created for themselves. Indeed Moscow may well conclude against retaliating too harshly, for precisely this reason - they cannot predict what psychos in Washington or DC would do.
Anyway, my main point is to understand Moscow's approach in Ukraine by reference more to its overall geopolitical objectives, and less by reference to its objectives in Ukraine itself. Russia and China are trying to build a new & alternative global order while also managing a "controlled demolition" of a desperate and volatile western system. It's a monumental task that will require time, patience and resilience.
Many thanks.
The best comment so far!
agree
> In my view, we saw this strategic patience at play with Russia's urgent intervention to persuade Tehran against a massive Iranian retaliation against Israel.
Really? What has Russia "persuaded" Iran to do: sit back and allow ZioNazistan to assasinate and bomb inside Iran at will in exchange for an S-400 system? And Iran will just accept to have its credibility shot to pieces by Russia's persuasion, right?
Silly reply.
Revenge is a dish best served cold, and at leisure.
Had Iran launched a strike within a week, this would have given the West a VERY accurate idea of how much equipment/missiles they can move to launch in that time frame. Delaying fuzzes that number enormously, which make Western counter planning exponentially more difficult. Plus the West shifted fuel/equipment/resources (whole carrier groups moved) and used up diplomatic credit in preparing to repel a strike.
This is all burning a massive amount of cash and resources to keep in place, the deferred maintenance will drop later availability drastically.
The longer Iran takes to drop the other shoe, the more likely it is to succeed and the detriment to the West is already occurring in ever mounting quantities.
You get it. Good post
Honestly Ngungu, any opponent with half a brain could play you like a banjo.
Don't react, think!
First rate comment. Thanks! I'd add to that a key factor working in favor of Russia's strategy as you lay it out that the West seems to willfully ignore: Russia can apply patience because the population *strongly* supports the government it elected, from Putin on down.
One of the West's most self-destructive self-delusions is its belief that Putin is unpopular or that he can be "brought down" by some sort of popular uprising. The West refuses to acknowledge the reality that Putin is the choice of the Russian people and his government is doing their bidding. It is genuine democracy in action.
They also don't get it that Russians are far more expert on military matters than Westerners, a side effect of most men in Russia having served in the army, at least a year or two. As General Apti Alaudinov says in the video S posted: "We are used to war. We can do war. We know how to fight." That applies to Russians overall. They're not a bunch of gender-confused weirdos and Gen Z snowflakes. Pretty much everybody knows how to handle an AK-47.
Average Russians don't panic over terrorist actions like Kursk. Instead, they calmly and systematically destroy the terrorists.
It's also a mistake for Westerners to give too much credit to outliers on Russian social media. In every society of 150 million people who are fanatic, over-the-top users of Internet and social media there will be a subset of doomer parasites who'll spout any nonsense for a click. But they don't remotely dent the extremely broad and deep consensus in Russia that crosses ethnic and religious lines.
Alaudinov, for example, is a Chechen and Muslim and the battalion he leads is so well known for its ferocity in battle on behalf of Russia that it is his battalion that prompted the popular Russian joke: Ethnic Russians are cowering in a basement in some Ukrainian hamlet waiting for Russian troops to liberate them from the nazis, and when they hear shouts of "Allah Akhbar!" outside they erupt in smiles and embrace each other saying "Hurray! the Russians are here!"
I don't buy any "uptick in anxiousness amidst the Russian commentariat" - that's only the expression of a few outliers trying to get clicks or air time with a more alarmist presentation. It's also the expression of a few outliers with anger management issues who would prefer instant nuclear war that incinerates the US no matter what that does to Russia.
The Russians have a capacity to absorb suffering that we in the West simply cannot understand.
Upvoted, because you're right. But on top of that there hasn't been any significant suffering in Russia. The West keeps telling themselves "We're really making the Russians suffer!" but that's just propaganda for morons. Let's consider that alleged "suffering" in three categories: economic, military, and social.
Economic: As in sanctions, for example. Sanctions have caused absolutely zero suffering in Russia. On the contrary sanctions have been one of factors that have caused a *boom* in the Russian economy. It turns out that almost everything in the world is made in China, not in the EU or US, and that whatever anybody could possibly want is easily available from China if it is not already made in Russia.
The self-destructive EU attack on Russia's oligarchs in the West guaranteed that seemingly within minutes of the first EU confiscations of Russian oligarch yachts and mansions, hundreds of billions of dollars in oligarch money fled the West and returned to safety in Russia, powering a huge venture capital wave of investment in expansion of existing Russian businesses and the creation of many new state of the art businesses.
Those relatively few Western companies that "left" Russia didn't really have any impact on ordinary life. Virtually nobody in Russia watched NetFlix and FedEx had been crushed by local competitors like CDEK long before they left. Amazon never got any traction in Russia while huge local companies like OZON and Wildberries did.
I'm an American living in Russia and I can see every day how the booming economy has improved the quality of life. It was always very good in Russia after the switch to Capitalism but in recent years it's become really superb.
Military: One reason Russia calls the conflict in Ukraine a "special operation" is that it does not rise to the level of intensity, and suffering, that the word "war" means in Russian. Over 600,000 of Kiev's troops have been killed with fewer than 70,000 of Russia's troops killed.
That sounds like a lot but for Russians it's not really any suffering at all, it's the expected bill for a man's work in destroying a nazi cancer. Likewise, virtually no Russian civilians in "classic" Russia have been killed during the entire conflict. It's around 200 killed as a result of nazi drone and artillery attacks, almost all in the very narrow zone near the border. Nobody else in Russia is "suffering" as a result of military action.
Across the land, from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok, all 11 time zones of mainland Russia, people aren't sheltering in bunkers or fearing the sky. They're going out to the park, walking the dog, riding around on electric scooters, enjoying the weather in outdoor cafes and all the rest of ordinary life. There are more civilian casualties in the new territories, but those have been an active war zone for over ten years and everybody is used to that. As Apti Alaudinov put it, "We are used to war. We can do war. We know how to fight," and that's how people in the new territories feel.
Social: The imbeciles in the EU and US think that cutting Russia off from their sick and Satanic culture will make Russians "suffer." Nope. Pretty much all of Russia looked at the perverted opening ceremonies of the Paris olympics and simultaneously thought, "Thank God we're not there." It's the same with travel to Europe or other US vassals. People who enjoyed doing that now travel elsewhere. For example, my friends and I used to routinely travel to Spain, Italy, and France. I'm American and I can still do that, but I won't go where my friends cannot. Now we travel to Asia, to India, China, South America, and Africa. Instead of yet another trip to Barcelona so you can complain how none of the restaurants open before 10 PM, it's a trip to see the Taj Mahal, the Pyramids, a cruise down the Amazon, the Great Wall, or thanking God the US was unable to destroy the beaches and geographic wonders of Vietnam.
So, no suffering. But should it come, for example, in the wake of WW3 that annihilates the US and US vassals while also leaving Russia in ruins, well, Russians are ready for that.
That's worth a more extensive quote from General Apti Alaudinov: "Either the SMO ends this year or the SMO this year transitions into world war 3. We are used to war. We can do war. We know how to fight. But how will you feel? This is for you probably a very difficult question. Therefore a call to everyone. Go outside. Stop your fascist governing layers of your states."
Also The Duran guys (and IMHO agree) remind us that Russia has BRICS/ the global south watching its actions -- are they measured, are they trying to do a peace deal. Putin is not JUST dealing with his supportive domestic audience he has to show BRICS/ the SOUTH he is truly interested in being the adult in the room to be a big part of the new multi-polar world.
Yeah, the surge in anxious and angry comments in popular Russian TG channels can actually be attributed to Ukraine's fearmongers stoking the fire. They are trying too hard though. There's no rush now that Ukie blitz had been largely halted and turned into yet another highly profitable killbox. I'd rather see it continue to consume Ukie armor until next year. 200-300 fast attack vehicles and half hundred tanks, in less than a month, that's great.
Most Russians have not fought or have military service unfortunately. This is no longer the Soviet Union. In fact, most Russians with means (middle class and above) desperately seek to avoid military service as its seen a waste of time "заборы красить на дачи у генерала" is a very common (and unfortunate) view of things. Now it also is viewed as dangerous.
Aha,that's why Russians don't stop to sign contracts with MoD by the thousands & thousands ?
It's not the Soviet Union, but universal service for at least a year for men at age 18 is still in force. That's a reduction from the two years that it used to be earlier, which is a point of controversy in Russia. As one of my friends remarked the other day, "After they serve for two years they come out a man. But one year is not enough to assure that."
It's true that most Russians have not fought, but that's always the case in almost all countries throughout history, even heavily militarized ones during historical eras of continuous warfare. It's also true that, given that there is no compulsory service for women, most Russians have not served.
You're right that the middle class and above avoids military service, taking advantage of the very many exemptions that are available for students and the like. That's changing since the start of the special op as more and more professionals and young men on professional or high education career tracks are volunteering for duty. Patriotism is at a higher point I think since the Great Patriotic War, although there are still plenty of unpatriotic parasites who, when they're not throwing their chewing gum wrappers on the floor in restaurants or parking their Land Cruisers on sidewalks, don't give a hoot about the country or anything but themselves. Those are the same jerks who buy a puppy for their kids at the start of the dacha season in summer and then at the end of the summer abandon the dog so they don't have to care for it at their city apartments, telling the kids that the dog "ran away."
But still, if you look at the current population of Russia most men have indeed had military service, at least for a year, and that helps drive a far greater awareness of military matters than in the West. That also leaks over into a greater awareness of military matters in women, except, of course for Gen Z children. Some of that is a legacy of the USSR. It's not at all unusual for women who are 50 and above to know how to load, shoot, tear down and reassemble an AK-47, a result of school training classes during the Union. If you're younger than that and living in Russia, ask your mom or grandmother and you might be surprised to hear them say "oh, sure, we learned how to do all that...".
Viewing military service as "dangerous" is nothing new, but the emergence of that view in narcissistic youth is, mercifully, limited to weak minded youth who are easily influenced by Western propaganda. It's the same stupid children who believed Western propaganda that their education exemptions from service would be cancelled and that 18 year olds would be rounded up for the front, and so they used mommy's credit card to hop on the next plane to Serbia. None of them stopped to notice that the mobilization in 2022 was limited only to men with prior service who had signed up for the active reserve.
Contrast that to the huge new wave of patriotism in more worthwhile young people, which shows up not only in volunteering for service but also in surprising waves in culture, like the huge success of the young rock star "Shaman," who sings overtly patriotic songs like "My Russia".
So sure, I agree that there are plenty of people in Russia who uninformed about the military and intend to stay that way, but on average Russians tend to be much better informed on military matters than Westerners as a result of the overall much greater participation in military service in the country. That helps power a lot of the Russian common sense, no panic, approach to the SVO.
Yes, there will be outliers like some weak minded youth, but those too tend to be balanced by the new wave of very patriotic youth who are ready to go out and tear the guts out of anybody stupid enough to mess with Russia.
As Shaman puts it in "My Russia":
"This is where I was born and this is where I live
And I'm sure there's no better country
[Chorus]
Where the soul sings
Where it's easy to breathe
And the places where the light shines
I won't betray my heart
I know I'll give everything
For my Russia to live
For my Russia to live"
The original...
Здесь я когда-то родился и здесь я живу
И я уверен, что лучше страны не бывает
[Припев]
Там, где поёт душа
Там, где легко дышать
И дарят свет места родные
Сердце я не предам
Знаю, я всё отдам
Чтобы жила моя Россия
Чтобы жила моя Россия
My mom and dad both learned how to take apart an AK and put it together. My mother talks about having to do it blindfolded at her school. However, it seems the millenials and Gen-Z are rather unpatriotic and very westernized. This is why the partial mobilization has triggered a mass exodus to Georgia, Serbia, Armenia.
While pop culture icons like Shaman and Morgenshtern are trying to promote the SVO, it is limited subset and many people will continue to avoid talking about the subject openly instead saying like "you know what happened in February 22".
1 year Military service for men is usually for village youth, uneducated youth, youth from military families or people from the provincial regions. You won't see the programmer Vasya go to volunteer. He is more likely to get a job in Czech Republic and leave. I have seen many such cases. It is the middle class that is the biggest influence on society today unfortunately.
Overall you're right, but I think you overplay the "mass exodus" thing. The weak minded children who fell for the massive US disinformation campaign on social media did leave in 2022, around 150,000 of them. About half of them have since returned and many of those who have not returned are staying abroad because they burned their bridges when they left.
You're right that young programmers do not as a matter of course join the military. They tend to get an exemption from military service because their skills are strategically vital, and that's no joke. Russia is absolutely crushing the US and Kiev's troops in Ukraine with AI because Russian AI is more sophisticated and it's been deployed to the battlefield for over a year and a half. It's been that long since Lancet drones gained the ability to swarm autonomously and to use autonomous AI to independently make battle decisions. The US has nothing like that, and neither does Ukraine. Kiev is still stuck in the primitive, initial era of using off the shelf commercial drones controlled by humans.
As for leaving, the best and brightest don't leave. A good example is what happened when Intel closed its offices in Russia, which employed about 1000 engineers and scientists in R&D. Intel offered all expenses paid transfers to Intel centers in Germany and Poland, with a huge boost in salaries so people could afford to live there. About one third of their workforce accepted that offer.
But the one third that took that offer were the weaker employees, who were unsure about their employment prospects after Intel fired them in Russia. Almost all of the strong employees stayed. They all got jobs within two weeks at Huawei and huge Russian companies that operate R&D centers in Russia, and every one of them got a big boost in salary. Of the one third who left Russia, most have returned, including almost all of the ones with children. They don't like their children growing up being cretins in the terrible school systems operated in the EU, and they are annoyed by the totally ignorant Russophobia around them.
I personally know four young people who are programmers who stayed in Russia. That's 100% of the sample of young people I know who are programmers, but I'm not saying it's representative. They stayed in Russia despite offers of higher salaries because all of their friends and family are in Russia and they didn't like the bad taste of betraying their country in time of war.
None of them are political, except one that was strongly against the special op. They just want to have a good career, grow up, start families and live in the culture they know and love. They are all happy they stayed because their careers are booming (Russia's tech economy is on a massive roll), and they all are getting political in favor of Russia, including the one originally against the special op, as they see the incarnate evil of the West exposed.
They also report that of their friends who left Russia, for places like Serbia or Georgia or whatever, *all* of them are looking forward to returning to Russia. A typical pattern is that young people saw the opportunity to live abroad at somebody else's expense for a while (an appealing thing for young people) but now that they've gotten that out of their system and they've become experienced enough to realize that a West they might have over-idealized is also a mess, just a different type of mess and in many ways a worse mess than Russia, they much prefer building their lives in Russia.
I respectfully disagree about the middle class being the biggest influence, because I think it is more a difference between an extreme urban society like St. Pete or Moscow and "the regions," like Novosibirsk, Kazan, Krasnodar, Volgograd, etc. People in St. Pete and Moscow are notoriously liberal, narcissistic and self-centered while out in the "real Russia" in the regions (where I live, thank God) people are much more patriotic. Where I live we have plenty of programmers, lawyers, businessmen and other professionals who are volunteering for the army. Moscow also has that, of course, but as a percentage thing the regions are more patriotic. I think you get that in the US, too. It's no accident there are so many people volunteering for the US army from Texas and the South and not from degenerate urban cores like Manhattan or San Francisco.
Take heart. The more Russians learn about the true face of the West (their response to Russia's unflinching defense of Russian people has taken off their masks) the more people want no part of being Westernized, at least not culturally. So fine, take the good part of it, the common sense of market oriented economies (a part of Russia for centuries before the Bolsheviks destroyed that for 70 years), but say no to the vicious colonialism, hatred for religion, support for nazis, and social perversion.
"Anyway, my main point is to understand Moscow's approach in Ukraine by reference more to its overall geopolitical objectives, and less by reference to its objectives in Ukraine itself. Russia and China are trying to build a new & alternative global order while also managing a "controlled demolition" of a desperate and volatile western system. It's a monumental task that will require time, patience and resilience."
This is an excellent post. I'm an American(72 y/o)...we want immediate results. I'm guilty of this thinking myself. The Russians are chess players. It is a slow and deliberate game. I played chess in HS but gave it up shortly thereafter because the pace of the game (for me) was too slow. I moved on to backgammon which moves fast and takes about 10-15 minutes to play. People go nuts here if their food or coffee order doesn't arrive in 30 seconds. Gotta move on to the next distraction-fast.
My experience is that the average American doesn't give a shit about what happens in Ukraine. We're told that Putin is Satan like every leader we go to war with. It's tiresome. The propaganda here is very successful. As long as vacations and lattes are readily available, foreign affairs are generally of no interest. No one (yet) is being drafted and I doubt the US gov't will go there as that's when the real push back begins. The average American likely thinks the Russians are communist. I studied history for over fifty years and can find very few people (college ed) that can even have a real conversation re current geo-political events. In my experience people are just disinterested. We always look for another war to prosecute here. That's why we can't have nice things. The intelligence, patience and discipline of Putin and the Russians blows my mind.
Thanks for NOT blowing up the world lads!
"I studied history for over fifty years and can find very few people (college ed) that can even have a real conversation re current geo-political events."
Well said. I rarely visit the US anymore just for that reason. I like talking geopolitics and there's just none of that in the US because Americans have become such ignorant dummies.
A good example was a couple of years ago when I had dinner in New York with some friends from college who knew I was living in Russia and that my views on the special op did not conform to the US narrative. They had invited another couple who I didn't know but who had been warned in advance I had non-conformist views and that it would be best to avoid discussion of world events at dinner, apparently to protect anybody from exploding head syndrome if they were inadvertently exposed to truth.
Well, we got along great and had a fine dinner talking about pretty much everything except the one thing everybody obviously wanted to talk about, given the presence of an actual Russian (living in Russia makes you that, apparently, even if you're really an American just living there for a while) at the table. And then towards the end of dinner the couple I had just met bravely set out to show their broadness of mind.
It was clear they had screwed up their courage and their determination to be openminded, and to hear what I might have to say about the matter without immediately jumping into "cancel this Putin propagandist" mode. I don't remember exactly how they asked me, but it was something along the lines of "We've heard you have a contrasting view, and we'd really like to hear what you think about the war in Ukraine, without prejudging anything you might say. We follow independent bloggers, neutral news sources, so we think we have a good background, but we'd like to hear from you." They were really proud that they weren't just gullible, uninformed Americans who got their news from CNN or Fox, but who really dug deep to get real news and views.
I asked them if they really wanted to know, because an honest answer would not be a short one. For example, to really understand the conflict in Ukraine and what I thought about it as an eye witness, to really understand issues like Crimea, you'd have to go back a thousand years. But that I was sure ready to do my best to cover that as quickly as possible to get on to current events.
They were puzzled at that and literally asked, "What does Crimea have to do with it? That's a separate country." They literally thought that Crimea was some sort of separate country, like Algeria or Switzerland or whatever, and not a territory very deeply involved in the geopolitics of Ukraine and Russia. At that, I thought "OK... this isn't going to go well..." and indeed the conversation rapidly went downhill from there.
As usual, they didn't want to hear anything other than the narrative they'd bought into, but only wanted to hear confirmation of their own prejudices: nothing that happened before February 2022 mattered, the US was not in any way involved in coups in Ukraine, there have never been any nazis in Ukraine, ethnic Russians are maybe 0.5% of Ukraine, the Russian language and the Russian ethnicity did not emerge just to the southeast of Kiev over 1000 years ago but is a completely foreign implant put there by malign Kremlin dictators in the last few years, and Putin invaded a model democracy because he is an insane dictator unsatisfied with beating up his own people and wanting to rebuild the Soviet Union so he can make the whole world his gulag.
And that's what passes for "neutral" and "well informed" in the US these days. It's also what passes for "neutral" in any US vassal as well. When I travel outside the US, for example, to China, I'll occasionally run into Westerners who want to talk about Ukraine. They're always the same as that couple in New York. They'll ask, I'll reply with a few paragraphs, they look at me in horror like I grew horns and a tail, and then the conversation ends.
Boy, what a fly on the wall moment for me. I actually developed a different approach for these situations without taking full credit since it was pitched to me by someone else. It goes like this. Picture USA and Mexico as a unified superstate that exists for several centuries more or less. Then it breaks up along the Southern States so that Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, California, Arizona and New Mexico are now part of Greater Atzlan.
For a couple of decades it's going inertial, although nationalists make children learn in schools that they're Atzlanians and about how persecuted they had always been by the U.S. and force upon them a "native Atzlanian language" which heavily replaces English words with Spanish ones.
Then a Chinese-instigated coup happens. Atzlanians nationalists grab power in the capital and put down everyone who disagrees with them, American businesses are kicked out and given to the Chinese and Russians, English is banned in full. China and Russia fully support the coup and warn American president that there will be retaliation if he interferes. He doesn't. Clashes with English-speakers begin in earnest, Louisiana and Mississippi submit, Arizona also does, but Florida uses its position as the most remote and the fact that parts of US fleet are still stationed there to quietly secede straight back to the US without firing a single shot. Texas and New Mexico call everyone to arms and actually manage to break away with help from American volunteers who start to seep through the border despite having no support from tied-up American govt and having to face Mexican army armed by the Chinese.
It escalates, Russians open their training bases in the rear, Chinese tanks arrive and roll upon the defenders, cities burn but hold, unrest in Arizona and California puts thousands under arrest, people disappear in swathes. The world is oblivious. Americans demand from Potus to find some balls and put a stop to the massacres. Which he eventually finds the courage to, after failing at every possible diplomatic attempt to settle it down for more than seven years of bombardments that claim lives of 15.000 Texans.
He recognizes Texas and NM as independent states despite getting immediately sanctioned by UN, signs an alliance with them and commits US Army to defend Houston when Chinese tanks are two dozen miles away from city limits. China insists that overwhelming military defeat is necessary to make America withdraw, give up Texas and NM and pay contributions to Atzlan. Atzlanians in the meantime heavily draft the American population of occupied states in the frontline battalions so that New Mexicans are killing Californians and vice versa while keeping hardcore nationalists in the rear to preserve Atzlanian identity for future resettling of these parts. And that's where we are today.
Well done Andy. A perverse twist on this theme is elucidated in a book detailing how President Polk in 1846 declared war on Mexico for phony reasons and greatly expanded the geographic boundaries of the US by taking on a much weaker nation. Manifest Destiny, blah, blah, blah. The details are in a book called
A Very Wicked War by Amy S. Greenberg. A worthwhile read.
Thanks for the tip on Greenberg's book. Just got it and will start reading it soon.
Bell curve. Infinitesimal quantity of people in the outer reaches of the curve, especially in NYC. You'd have better luck around say, the R&D base I work at. The NYC crowd are willing recipients of the regime propaganda, and those who aren't generally leave.
Agreed.
It's all been fun and games for the US since 1945 and especially since 1991.
They've had a great run.
I'm old enough to remember when the thought of China let alone Russia challenging US primacy, was simply ridiculous.
In fact I can recall my old Professor telling us that ancient cultures & superpowers like China and Russia would come back - it was inevitable, and that America needed to be aware of this.
That hubristic assumption of American exceptionalism clearly took hold like a virus in the US power elite, and has taken the to where we are now.
America is on the ropes, and no amount of Hollywood propaganda can hide the truth.
"they've had a great run"
Have they though , Scipio my friend. 🤔
We're a little Island and we ran the World for maybe two hundred years, 1745- 1945.
Rome was a city and managed maybe 500 years
The US is a continent and they've managed barely 75 years.The
😁
If you say so. BTW Perfidious Albion still has a little muscle left-- just ask MI6 supporting the Banderites and "Israel" as well as the City of London. But oh (as a dual citizen of Canada and UK) I do welcome the snuffing out of the corrupt flame that is left.
Oh, don't be so shy, Kursk is after all your island's comeback operation despite Americans taking crap as usual.
Like all empires they have a shelf life-- average is 250 years.
100%. I actually called the Russian consulate (in Ottawa) the first time they saved the Zaporozhye NPP near the beginning off the SMO to thank them from saving the world from another Chernobyl. They were stunned (general desk) but said thank you.
You might need to phone them again for deflecting the bellicose intentions of the US foreign policy for wanton escalation towards Armageddon.
Beautiful analysis O-22. That is exactly what I have been thinking but I don’t possess the word skills to covey this thought as you have here. Russia’s main goal must be to escape the financial boot on the neck from the international money managers without triggering WW-3. War creates an exponential increase in demand for the one product the money managers have-DEBT in the form of fiat currency. May the killings soon stop.
Meanwhile, earlier this week, the "bulwark of Western values", i.e. Ukraine, banned the activities of religious groups tied to the Russian Orthodox Church, thus targeting the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) too, despite its claim of independence from the Moscow Patriarchate. So much for freedom and democracy!
Reacting to the news above, yesterday Dmitry Medvedev said that the "country shall be destroyed as Sodom and Gomorrah once were".
https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/so-spoke-maria-zakharova-and-dmitry
Very comprehensive analysis once again, so thank you.
A few comments:
1) Russia isn't doing jack shit to NATO bases in Germany. They're jumping at shadows, freaking out because there's a tiny gap in kilometers of fencing, etc. Guarantee you that "drone" was just a kid flying a kite or something.
2) Russia seems to be doing spectacularly well in terms of fighting on the ground in Ukraine. Good job, boys.
3) On the other hand, Kursk is a disaster even if Ukraine isn't moving forward or whatever. It takes a LOT to piss off Russians, but having their civilians killed and foreign troops on their soil is getting them riled up. So why are Putin et al doing nothing? It's way past time to at least give a stirring speech. So why the foot dragging? This really WILL end up in a revolution (with no help needed from foreign NGOs) if Putin doesn't get his ass in gear and quit zooming off to party in Baku, ffs.
4) As a professional writer, the weak-ass passive voice used in US Embassy warnings drives me insane. That being said, I don't think they're truly worried about some big Russian missile strike. I think they're setting up false flag PR stunt on Ukrainian soil - something juicy with lots of screaming civilians, maybe a hospital or orphanage.
5) I've said it before and I'll say it again - Germany is out of money, not just for Ukraine but for everything. And as polite and "civilized" as modern Germans are, the knives come out when money gets tight. I truly would not be surprised if there isn't a coup/violent revolution in less than a year. Don't forget the "monarchists" who already tried to stage one last year. Remember, it just takes a few days without food before people go bananas.
6) What in the world is up with Ukraine financing and arming the Fulani of all people in Africa (esp CAR)? I mean wtf? These are black Muslims, the last guys you'd ever think would be Bandera allies. I guess the thinking is that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" but Ukraine is seriously getting western Africa riled up.
7) Did anyone see Borrell the gardener crying this week about the lack of EU military bases in Libya? Priceless!
8) Shit is getting PRETTY crazy inside Israel, talking about Jewish politics here. Just google the term "Philadelphia Corridor" to see just how schizophrenic things are getting.
9) So... I guess we're all gonna pretend it's normal for the US to have an unelected president Harris who was chosen by no one and never speaks to the press or answers questions about literally anything? All while Brandon sits in the corner and talks to his ice cream. How much more absurd do things have to get???
10) who is actually paying Ukraine's bills right now? Not talking about military stuff. I mean the government budget for things like salaries and picking up garbage and importing electricity. Seems like there's a huge black hole on this topic and I can't figure out where the money is coming from, esp the foreign reserves to prop up the UAH. How has their currency not cratered yet?
Germany is out of money? Haha. Thank God. Hopefully, the "uk" will be out of money soon, too. Let's give the migrants a chance to run the uk and eu. They might do better and not kiss nato ass like some limp wristed...
I don't agree with everything you say but I always enjoy reading your comments and perspective. Keep 'em coming!
Your point 3 is particularly pertinent.
Very well said, 100% agree except this: "This really WILL end up in a revolution (with no help needed from foreign NGOs) if Putin doesn't get his ass in gear and quit zooming off to party in Baku, ffs."
No, it won't end in a revolution. Russians are far and away more military literate than westerners, a side effect of most Russian men having served at least a year or two in the army, and they don't panic over military matters. They understand perfectly well there's an ebb and flow in war and that, for sure, their side will have setbacks as well as gains.
They understand that the Kursk incursion is a military disaster for Kiev that was launched as feedstock for propaganda for Western morons and to try to bait more direct fighting between the US and Russia. People are completely OK with the idea of slaughtering Kiev's troops and wiping out US/NATO equipment in a cauldron on the border with Ukraine in Kursk oblast. Let them come to Russia and die as they create a wonderfully target-rich environment for Russian forces. There are a few people trying to get clicks with alarmist presentations, but they're outliers.
As to your point 10, it's mainly the US with some help from the US's EU vassals that is paying Ukraine's bills right now. I suspect it is very hard to figure out where the money is coming from because the US is deliberately obfuscating the money flows since a good bit of it is being sent to Ukraine illegally, not bothering to fulfill all the requirements, like constitutionally valid appropriations and expenditures, that apply to lesser mortals.
[Edit]: Forgot to mention: Russians generally back Putin's activity with allies. Azerbaijan is a critical player in the region to the South and Putin's diplomacy there is essential, him doing a critical part of his job. Putin maintaining hands on, close relationships with countries like Azerbaijan and the various 'stans is just as important as the close relationships with BRICS+ countries like India and China. Russians know that.
The NATO countries are being destroyed from the inside which is far worse than what Russia is facing.
OTAN+ is self-annihilating on Project Ukraine
I'm very curious about one thing - Let's say Russia pushes up to the Dniepr, taking all of the Donbass. Ukraine still remains in Kursk, and presumably has a strong defence line on their bank of the Dniepr. Doesn't that mean the Ukrainians can simply reconstituted yet another army of drafted 18 year olds and NATO wunderwaffen, and keep going? How does the AFU collapse in any case as long as they still have, as you mentioned, a large, untapped reserve of 18 year olds, an impervious defensive barrier around their central cities, and weapon supplies from the West?
You are absolutely right. They are writing off the Donbass - because anyone with any sense can see that it is lost - and adjusting their deployment accordingly. They will be in Kursk for months or longer "occupied Russia", all the cool HD videos of combat showing destroyed houses - Russian houses - those are normal people's houses. I always had severe criticism of Kiev for its willingness to sacrifice its own people for the West. What is Moscow sacrificing these people for? And, the AFU, noticing that Moscow isn't responding, is likely to double and triple down and push further still and create another axis of long-range strike. There is going to be a 300-500km danger zone into Russia where there will be constant, unending small scale strikes. The scale and tempo of strikes is not decreasing as well. Once these start to number in the hundreds or thousands the cumulative effect will be massive.
Those who presume that russia can be a garbage compactor for NATO equipment indefinitely will have a big surprise when they realize that a country of 140mn ppl cannot compete with the combined economic output of 1bn, especially when the latter have perfectly unmolested production and supply while the former have daily attacks against... everything.
Half of Kiev is East of the Dniepr.
Russia can turn that into Bakhmut pt 3. and just bomb/shell the crap out of the rest (like Ukraine did for 10 years with the Donbass).
Then your new conscript army dies trying to "take back Kiev".
After that, who cares?
Ukraine has died in Kursk, it just hasn't had a funeral yet.
Presumption is your mistake