The biggest news of the day is the Dutch/Danish decision to supply F-16s to Ukraine: As usual, buried within this “optimism” are a few inconvenient facts, like their insistence on a strict set of protocols being fulfilled before handing over the planes, which will likely not allow Ukraine to have the planes until well into 2024 at the earliest.
20 minutes ago, I tried to post the same video of Zelensky's jet smile but AFP YouTube videos blocked me from embedding. I should have followed your ripping route.
Regarding the New York Times article, of which all MSM have versions (as if ordered to), I quote:
"American officials say they fear that UKRAINE HAS BECOME CASUALTY AVERSE, one reason it has been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive."
Sure, Ukraine has less casualties because they're avoiding them! Millions of people read this shit, and are dumber for it.
When WW1 broke out, the military commands had ideas of how the war would be fought - but nobody predicted 3 years of trench warfare on the western front
In WW2, the mighty battleship was not expected to turn into target practice for carrier borne aircraft, among other things
This WW3-lite has taught us a lot, mostly that the modern battlefield is one where you don't see much, you don't have many people around you, and you are continuously watched, day and night, from above. I honestly don't know how the soldiers on the ground handle it.
The F-16s now promised, for what that's worth, are not top line fighters, and can't engage top line fighters without being shot down....but can carry nuclear missiles..Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, F-16s need very clean 1st world runways because of their unprotected low air scoops, and will thus have to be based in Poland, where they would be attacked, as the Russians have said...A real bag of worms...In fact, I will bet that not one F-16 is ever actually deployed by the Ukraine during this war...
Seymour Hersh states that the CIA convinced Blinken that Ukraine was finished, never mind DIA or any other sources. Blinken's response, reportedly, was to adopt a Kissinger stance to achieve the equivalent of a Vietnam War peace agreement. WaPo obliging. NYT to provide the DoS and its War Department response when the time comes.
In true Washington parlance, first a victim needs to be found for 'losing' Ukraine. No candidates yet
How to end the war if Putin keeps fighting? Hopium. Putin will grind away until NATO quits and throws down arms. The West cannot be trusted to abide by a single agreement.
The Ukies will run out of people before they run out of supplies, even if the latter are not reaching the front. The Russians, here and there, are demonstrating textbook examples of how to conduct land warfare and they are still improving. They have also improved interdiction of the Ukie supply chain and will likely affect F-16 deliveries when and if they still come.
Lunar landing efforts on the dark side of the moon are iffy for everyone. The Russkies want to demonstrate that they are players. Best wishes to them. It is demonstrating to the non Russophobes nations that they are serious. The US has demonstrated, a while back, that the AK-47 design approach, simple and robust, will work.
My biggest tinfoil hat conspiracy is that every russian casualty number reported by Ukraine is actually the real Ukrainian losses. Doing this serves 2 goals. 1) allows intelligence agencies to quickly disseminate information and 2) as the saying goes "always accuse your enemy of what you're doing". IE when Russia reports estimated Ukrainian losses the media can just accuse them of lying about their own losses.
As always Simplicius, your analysis is spot on (or the best in the business supposing I have no feelers on the ground). If only I could avoid the fucking nazi loving pussies replying to this and similar comments on other threads crying about how they're triggered about nazis getting their asses beat.
I find the point about the poor quality of entrenchments today to be a small but significant bit, it points to a deeper and more disturbing reality. Now that we have our mobile digital devices and apps we think we are so much smarter and better than our great grandfathers, in many ways that's just not true. There is a very real difference between a society full of laborers, farmers, coal miners carpenters and so on and a society dominated by keyboard commandos and database miners.
I'm not sure if it's the Russian or Ukrainian native population who suffer from this phenomenon the worse, but as Kiev is now dominated by a professional class of western deep state apparatchiks who think there's no problem that can't be solved with the correct focus group and marketing strategy, it seems likely that the Ukrainians are going to have to eat the worst of it.
There's a vast amount of useful information and powerful techniques that have been lost to us just buried in the past and not even very deeply buried in the distant past. I discovered Ernst Jünger just after February 2022, here's what he had to say on this topic,
"The Pionierkompanie was a very special unit, composed of miners and other skilled workers. They were constantly engaged in digging tunnels under the enemy lines, laying mines, and blowing them up at the right moment. They also built concrete shelters, bunkers, and dugouts for us, and repaired the wire entanglements and trenches after every bombardment. They were brave and cheerful fellows, who did their dangerous work with a sense of humor and a disregard for death."
The only way Nato gets out of this war without eventually promising all their best equipment and first sons to Zelensky, is to get rid of the cleptocrats he's currently blackmailing to keep the weapons coming. Otherwise they will continue to passive aggressively give hints they want out until they're forced to apologize the next day. I really don't think any of them have any kind of exit strategy or grand master plan . Just harsh words and a bad case of buyers remorse. Might not even be Zelensky doing the blackmailing. Probably the same shadowy figures who did the blackmailing during covid.
Thank you again, for a very informative article. Can you please comment on the "quality" of some of the information? Specifically, it seems the letter from Kherson has been whited-out (or tippexed) and the text message concering Donbass seems to be cobbled-together. It gives me the sense of being "manufactured" and not real.
Regarding the F-16s the number circulating are about 42 planes from the Netherlands and another 19 from Denmark.
Yet, Ukraine only seems to have 8 fighter pilots in active training for at least a year since that was the number of people they could find who were fluent enough in English. Another 20 pilots are currently learning English in Great Britain: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/world/europe/ukraine-f16-jets-nato.html
"However, American officials have said that Ukraine has identified only eight combat pilots — less than a single squadron — who speak English well enough to start a period of training expected to last at least a year. About 20 others are being sent to Britain this month to learn English."
Based on this information, it seems that Ukraine will only be able to create a squadron sometime during the summer/fall of '24, unless they actually use foreign fighter pilots.
Regarding artillery shells, there are articles stating that the US has already provided 2 mn rounds of munition. Their production capacity increased from 14K to 24K per month and the goal is to increase it to 80K/month.
Even with 80K/month, it will take 2 YEARS to replace the 2mn of artillery shells stock, let alone supply Ukraine with new ones. Even if all 80K were provided to Ukraine, it would translate to 2.5K shells available to fire each day.
Yes, practicing on F-16s is good. On a Russian offensive, IMO, ISR becomes poor once forces get beyond and behind the FEBA in depth, and Ukraine lacks mobility and an air force aside from drones, plus its artillery is thin and getting thinner. Flanking the FEBA from North to South while closely guarding Russia's Western flank opposite Kiev would allow for decent advances of 10-20km/day, perhaps more. The question for me is what sort of defensive lines has Ukraine constructed behind the current FEBA? Ukie forces along the FEBA would face frontal, flanking and rear assaults and would be forced to react to them, but they lack mobility, artillery and ammo along with no air assets aside from drones.
As usual, time will tell us what Russia does. However, I do think Russia has a political objective for the August-October 2024 time period.
A dear friend of mine long since gone fought in the hedgerows of Normandy, after getting across Omaha Beach. His stories about the hedgerows were brutal. He received the DSC for saving a platoon stuck in them. Anyway, some of the videos I have watched remind me of his hedgerow stories. The one video of the UKE being buried alive was an experience my friend had, kinda weird watching what his story via words were like in comparison of seeing that video. God rest his soul.
I get the arm band thing, but isn't it an oxymoron to wear camouflage fluflu's on your helmet and then slap blue tape on top of your head?
20 minutes ago, I tried to post the same video of Zelensky's jet smile but AFP YouTube videos blocked me from embedding. I should have followed your ripping route.
Another irritation is that I cannot get into TASS via Mozilla (tried Bing too) e.g. https://tass.com/politics/1634155
Regarding the New York Times article, of which all MSM have versions (as if ordered to), I quote:
"American officials say they fear that UKRAINE HAS BECOME CASUALTY AVERSE, one reason it has been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive."
Sure, Ukraine has less casualties because they're avoiding them! Millions of people read this shit, and are dumber for it.
When it rains, it pours, and it appears the first drips of truth are crossing the West's information border.
With the deteriorating situation in Africa we at least won't have a shortage of news, sad as it is to say.
When WW1 broke out, the military commands had ideas of how the war would be fought - but nobody predicted 3 years of trench warfare on the western front
In WW2, the mighty battleship was not expected to turn into target practice for carrier borne aircraft, among other things
This WW3-lite has taught us a lot, mostly that the modern battlefield is one where you don't see much, you don't have many people around you, and you are continuously watched, day and night, from above. I honestly don't know how the soldiers on the ground handle it.
The F-16s now promised, for what that's worth, are not top line fighters, and can't engage top line fighters without being shot down....but can carry nuclear missiles..Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, F-16s need very clean 1st world runways because of their unprotected low air scoops, and will thus have to be based in Poland, where they would be attacked, as the Russians have said...A real bag of worms...In fact, I will bet that not one F-16 is ever actually deployed by the Ukraine during this war...
Too much stuff.
Seymour Hersh states that the CIA convinced Blinken that Ukraine was finished, never mind DIA or any other sources. Blinken's response, reportedly, was to adopt a Kissinger stance to achieve the equivalent of a Vietnam War peace agreement. WaPo obliging. NYT to provide the DoS and its War Department response when the time comes.
In true Washington parlance, first a victim needs to be found for 'losing' Ukraine. No candidates yet
How to end the war if Putin keeps fighting? Hopium. Putin will grind away until NATO quits and throws down arms. The West cannot be trusted to abide by a single agreement.
The Ukies will run out of people before they run out of supplies, even if the latter are not reaching the front. The Russians, here and there, are demonstrating textbook examples of how to conduct land warfare and they are still improving. They have also improved interdiction of the Ukie supply chain and will likely affect F-16 deliveries when and if they still come.
Lunar landing efforts on the dark side of the moon are iffy for everyone. The Russkies want to demonstrate that they are players. Best wishes to them. It is demonstrating to the non Russophobes nations that they are serious. The US has demonstrated, a while back, that the AK-47 design approach, simple and robust, will work.
Now that they are floating the idea of peace talks after all their nonsense, this is how I imagine said talks going:
https://youtu.be/dZc1V67XzNw?t=86
My biggest tinfoil hat conspiracy is that every russian casualty number reported by Ukraine is actually the real Ukrainian losses. Doing this serves 2 goals. 1) allows intelligence agencies to quickly disseminate information and 2) as the saying goes "always accuse your enemy of what you're doing". IE when Russia reports estimated Ukrainian losses the media can just accuse them of lying about their own losses.
If I were going to make rules of war one would be:
Don't get into a war of attrition with someone who is much bigger than you.
As always Simplicius, your analysis is spot on (or the best in the business supposing I have no feelers on the ground). If only I could avoid the fucking nazi loving pussies replying to this and similar comments on other threads crying about how they're triggered about nazis getting their asses beat.
I find the point about the poor quality of entrenchments today to be a small but significant bit, it points to a deeper and more disturbing reality. Now that we have our mobile digital devices and apps we think we are so much smarter and better than our great grandfathers, in many ways that's just not true. There is a very real difference between a society full of laborers, farmers, coal miners carpenters and so on and a society dominated by keyboard commandos and database miners.
I'm not sure if it's the Russian or Ukrainian native population who suffer from this phenomenon the worse, but as Kiev is now dominated by a professional class of western deep state apparatchiks who think there's no problem that can't be solved with the correct focus group and marketing strategy, it seems likely that the Ukrainians are going to have to eat the worst of it.
There's a vast amount of useful information and powerful techniques that have been lost to us just buried in the past and not even very deeply buried in the distant past. I discovered Ernst Jünger just after February 2022, here's what he had to say on this topic,
"The Pionierkompanie was a very special unit, composed of miners and other skilled workers. They were constantly engaged in digging tunnels under the enemy lines, laying mines, and blowing them up at the right moment. They also built concrete shelters, bunkers, and dugouts for us, and repaired the wire entanglements and trenches after every bombardment. They were brave and cheerful fellows, who did their dangerous work with a sense of humor and a disregard for death."
What are the Pioneer companies doing today ?
The only way Nato gets out of this war without eventually promising all their best equipment and first sons to Zelensky, is to get rid of the cleptocrats he's currently blackmailing to keep the weapons coming. Otherwise they will continue to passive aggressively give hints they want out until they're forced to apologize the next day. I really don't think any of them have any kind of exit strategy or grand master plan . Just harsh words and a bad case of buyers remorse. Might not even be Zelensky doing the blackmailing. Probably the same shadowy figures who did the blackmailing during covid.
Good morning Simplicius,
Thank you again, for a very informative article. Can you please comment on the "quality" of some of the information? Specifically, it seems the letter from Kherson has been whited-out (or tippexed) and the text message concering Donbass seems to be cobbled-together. It gives me the sense of being "manufactured" and not real.
Much appreciated!
Regarding the F-16s the number circulating are about 42 planes from the Netherlands and another 19 from Denmark.
Yet, Ukraine only seems to have 8 fighter pilots in active training for at least a year since that was the number of people they could find who were fluent enough in English. Another 20 pilots are currently learning English in Great Britain: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/world/europe/ukraine-f16-jets-nato.html
"However, American officials have said that Ukraine has identified only eight combat pilots — less than a single squadron — who speak English well enough to start a period of training expected to last at least a year. About 20 others are being sent to Britain this month to learn English."
Based on this information, it seems that Ukraine will only be able to create a squadron sometime during the summer/fall of '24, unless they actually use foreign fighter pilots.
Regarding artillery shells, there are articles stating that the US has already provided 2 mn rounds of munition. Their production capacity increased from 14K to 24K per month and the goal is to increase it to 80K/month.
Even with 80K/month, it will take 2 YEARS to replace the 2mn of artillery shells stock, let alone supply Ukraine with new ones. Even if all 80K were provided to Ukraine, it would translate to 2.5K shells available to fire each day.
Yes, practicing on F-16s is good. On a Russian offensive, IMO, ISR becomes poor once forces get beyond and behind the FEBA in depth, and Ukraine lacks mobility and an air force aside from drones, plus its artillery is thin and getting thinner. Flanking the FEBA from North to South while closely guarding Russia's Western flank opposite Kiev would allow for decent advances of 10-20km/day, perhaps more. The question for me is what sort of defensive lines has Ukraine constructed behind the current FEBA? Ukie forces along the FEBA would face frontal, flanking and rear assaults and would be forced to react to them, but they lack mobility, artillery and ammo along with no air assets aside from drones.
As usual, time will tell us what Russia does. However, I do think Russia has a political objective for the August-October 2024 time period.
A dear friend of mine long since gone fought in the hedgerows of Normandy, after getting across Omaha Beach. His stories about the hedgerows were brutal. He received the DSC for saving a platoon stuck in them. Anyway, some of the videos I have watched remind me of his hedgerow stories. The one video of the UKE being buried alive was an experience my friend had, kinda weird watching what his story via words were like in comparison of seeing that video. God rest his soul.
I get the arm band thing, but isn't it an oxymoron to wear camouflage fluflu's on your helmet and then slap blue tape on top of your head?