Western MSM has begun to lose it. Pessimism and dooming is now endemic to their reports. They’ve pretty much accepted that Ukraine has no chance in the counter-offensive. Listen to this CNN report, which perfectly summarizes the current sentiment—they’re no longer beating around the bush:
If bad musicians play long enough, eventually they must improve, and become MSM music for my ears.
Seriously, it's pivotal. As much as I despise them, the turnaround, no matter ulterior motive, means we're one step closer to ending this fucking unnecessary and horrible war.
Russia may be conducting a successful defense, but, they are allowing the AFU to play a numbers game sending drones of all types, missiles and so on at Russian positions and cities. Something always gets through and that is simply not an acceptable condition for russian civilians to live through. I am in agreement that an eventual offensive needs to happen, and the only way to end this war is for either the regime in Kiev to be tossed out, or for a change in Moscow. So its existential.
Great job as always, although you missed the new Ukrainian bridgehead established on the other side of the Dnepr just North of the already existing Antonov bridgehead.
Plus a previous video showing a Russian interacting with Ukrainian "prisoners" on the field, which turned out to allegedly be a fake: "The Ukrainian media operation allowed to hide the truth from the battlefield and gain some time to strengthen their positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper."
I can't think of these developments as being truly significant, but Russian inability to dislodge the bridgeheads makes me suspect there are still gaps in their line, at least in terms of artillery and drones and aviation that should be used to hamper the AFU resupplying across the river. Ok the AFU can employ counterbattery fire to punish any such Russian attempt at their supply line over the river but this speaks of a vulnerable Russian front. Luckily the drying up of the Kakovkha reservoir was not exploited by the AFU for any sortie in this sector (still...).
Just looking at that ukr refugees map tells all you need to know about who calls the shots inside the EU: Germany has to admit in over a million and a hundred thousands of refugees, France biggest country in Europe a tiny 67,000 Ukrs. Less than Ireland or Belgium, and about the same as Switzerland.
The article from Kiev Ukraine reminds me of the scene from Gone with the Wind after the battle of Gettysburg when almost every family in Georgia knew someone who was killed there. Families lost 2-r of their sons or husbands and their grief was palpable.
Strategic Culture says that possibly 500,000 Ukrainians have died and gawd only knows how many have been wounded. Around 60,000 have lost a limb. And now the people responsible for this ungawdly loss of life are admitting that they knew that Ukraine wouldn’t be able to beat Russia, but they hoped that they would give a good effort. I want everyone who knew that Ukraine didn’t stand a chance held responsible for the massive loss of lives! But I know there’s a slim chance of that happening.
I can't see Russia agreeing to anything without getting Odessa...that is crucial..But I expect them to rout the Ukrainians in the spring, if not before...Isn't there a Russian Presidential election coming up?!
The Russian public won't be happy unless the Ukro-Nazis have been permanently dealt with....
"And guess how many total VDV MediaZona has verified the deaths of? ~1600. So this is in sync with General Teplinsky’s own figures as it would put Russian KIA to WIA ratio at a steeper 1:5 or so which is explained by the fact that Russia’s better battlefield medicine and medevac capabilities ensures fewer KIAs compared to simply wounded as a far larger percentage of wounded are successfully treated."
I think this paragraph is a little optimistic, and verges into rah rah for Russia. I'm more inclined to think that Russian KIA to WIA are a more normal 3:1 or 4:1, and the gap between 1600 and 8500/4 is the margin of error on Mediazona's method. That would put total Russian KIA at 30k*(8500/(4*1600)) = 40k. 30k*(8500/(3*1600)) = 53k at the top end.
Believe how far the Russians go beyond the four basic oblasts depends on whether or not Ukraine/The West is willing to do a deal. Demilitarize/guarantee Russian security and it will be over. I don't think that is likely, so on we go. To the point of artillery shell mathematics, I don't know why the Russians don't just buy a couple of million from DPRK. Maybe they have.
A big new tranche of up to $24 billion dollars in new funding for the war is coming up in the US congress. Options have shifted dramatically over the past year. But the people who voted for the first $100 billion can’t just admit that all we did is spend a lot of money we didn’t have in order to keep the war going long enough to kill a few hundred thousand more people, without changing the ultimate outcome. If the Ukrainian army collapses before next November, all of that spending and all of those deaths fall on Joe Biden’s frail head. So the war must go on.
Fascinating to see all the revisionism about US war fighting doctrine. It’s useless in Ukraine because it assumes a massive material superiority aka asymmetric warfare doctrine. We were training the Ukrainians how to spot an insurgent in a crowd. And how to sit back and let the air strikes take care of things, then move in and take prisoners. Now our doctrine is under serious challenge.
Another mountain of a post that I will have to continue reading tomorrow. I do love the chopper pilots and videos. I always have had the utmost respect for those that fly them. Cool story about their supporter.
The cage trucks are interesting, how quickly things are invented on behalf of war.
If bad musicians play long enough, eventually they must improve, and become MSM music for my ears.
Seriously, it's pivotal. As much as I despise them, the turnaround, no matter ulterior motive, means we're one step closer to ending this fucking unnecessary and horrible war.
.
“The Angel of Death has been abroad throughout the land; you may almost hear the beating of his wings” -John Bright
On February 23, 1855, John Bright, made the speech of his life. Opposing the Crimean War
Russia may be conducting a successful defense, but, they are allowing the AFU to play a numbers game sending drones of all types, missiles and so on at Russian positions and cities. Something always gets through and that is simply not an acceptable condition for russian civilians to live through. I am in agreement that an eventual offensive needs to happen, and the only way to end this war is for either the regime in Kiev to be tossed out, or for a change in Moscow. So its existential.
Great job as always, although you missed the new Ukrainian bridgehead established on the other side of the Dnepr just North of the already existing Antonov bridgehead.
Plus a previous video showing a Russian interacting with Ukrainian "prisoners" on the field, which turned out to allegedly be a fake: "The Ukrainian media operation allowed to hide the truth from the battlefield and gain some time to strengthen their positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper."
https://southfront.org/ukrainian-forces-gained-new-foothold-captured-russian-servicemen-in-recent-battles-in-kherson-region/
I can't think of these developments as being truly significant, but Russian inability to dislodge the bridgeheads makes me suspect there are still gaps in their line, at least in terms of artillery and drones and aviation that should be used to hamper the AFU resupplying across the river. Ok the AFU can employ counterbattery fire to punish any such Russian attempt at their supply line over the river but this speaks of a vulnerable Russian front. Luckily the drying up of the Kakovkha reservoir was not exploited by the AFU for any sortie in this sector (still...).
Just looking at that ukr refugees map tells all you need to know about who calls the shots inside the EU: Germany has to admit in over a million and a hundred thousands of refugees, France biggest country in Europe a tiny 67,000 Ukrs. Less than Ireland or Belgium, and about the same as Switzerland.
The article from Kiev Ukraine reminds me of the scene from Gone with the Wind after the battle of Gettysburg when almost every family in Georgia knew someone who was killed there. Families lost 2-r of their sons or husbands and their grief was palpable.
Strategic Culture says that possibly 500,000 Ukrainians have died and gawd only knows how many have been wounded. Around 60,000 have lost a limb. And now the people responsible for this ungawdly loss of life are admitting that they knew that Ukraine wouldn’t be able to beat Russia, but they hoped that they would give a good effort. I want everyone who knew that Ukraine didn’t stand a chance held responsible for the massive loss of lives! But I know there’s a slim chance of that happening.
I can't see Russia agreeing to anything without getting Odessa...that is crucial..But I expect them to rout the Ukrainians in the spring, if not before...Isn't there a Russian Presidential election coming up?!
The Russian public won't be happy unless the Ukro-Nazis have been permanently dealt with....
"And guess how many total VDV MediaZona has verified the deaths of? ~1600. So this is in sync with General Teplinsky’s own figures as it would put Russian KIA to WIA ratio at a steeper 1:5 or so which is explained by the fact that Russia’s better battlefield medicine and medevac capabilities ensures fewer KIAs compared to simply wounded as a far larger percentage of wounded are successfully treated."
I think this paragraph is a little optimistic, and verges into rah rah for Russia. I'm more inclined to think that Russian KIA to WIA are a more normal 3:1 or 4:1, and the gap between 1600 and 8500/4 is the margin of error on Mediazona's method. That would put total Russian KIA at 30k*(8500/(4*1600)) = 40k. 30k*(8500/(3*1600)) = 53k at the top end.
thanks simplicius.. much appreciated..
Until UkroFascists will be in Ukraine war will not stop.
https://rumble.com/v140aif-18-girl-gets-beaten-and-possible-raped-by-ukraine.html
Believe how far the Russians go beyond the four basic oblasts depends on whether or not Ukraine/The West is willing to do a deal. Demilitarize/guarantee Russian security and it will be over. I don't think that is likely, so on we go. To the point of artillery shell mathematics, I don't know why the Russians don't just buy a couple of million from DPRK. Maybe they have.
https://grasshoppper.substack.com/p/turkeys-come-home-to-roost
random thoughts and senselessness
A big new tranche of up to $24 billion dollars in new funding for the war is coming up in the US congress. Options have shifted dramatically over the past year. But the people who voted for the first $100 billion can’t just admit that all we did is spend a lot of money we didn’t have in order to keep the war going long enough to kill a few hundred thousand more people, without changing the ultimate outcome. If the Ukrainian army collapses before next November, all of that spending and all of those deaths fall on Joe Biden’s frail head. So the war must go on.
Fascinating to see all the revisionism about US war fighting doctrine. It’s useless in Ukraine because it assumes a massive material superiority aka asymmetric warfare doctrine. We were training the Ukrainians how to spot an insurgent in a crowd. And how to sit back and let the air strikes take care of things, then move in and take prisoners. Now our doctrine is under serious challenge.
Another mountain of a post that I will have to continue reading tomorrow. I do love the chopper pilots and videos. I always have had the utmost respect for those that fly them. Cool story about their supporter.
The cage trucks are interesting, how quickly things are invented on behalf of war.
Fuck Ukraine