Dude, you clearly are not living in Russia and have no idea what Russians actually think.
Inflation now is much, much less than it has been at any time for decades.
Ditto interest rates on loans. As a simple example: you could get 10%+ interest rates on deposits just 6 years ago - meaning loan interest rates with 18%+
As for prices of goods - again, you don't apparently live in Russia or you would understand that Russians are making more rubles, too. I'm not saying it is all roses, but the economic situation in Russia today is far, far, far more optimistic than it has been for a long time - since 2007 in fact.
Have you even visited Russia in the last 5 years? Ever?
Have you ever been to Russia yourself? I'm living here since i was born in Sverdlovsk 35 years ago. I fully expect to see a "no true Scotsman" from you next.
You're saying that the US DoS allowed you to travel to Russia multiple times this year in a personal/business capacity? I'd read that this is exceedingly rare these days.
The US Department of State has zero control over where US citizens travel.
The primary barrier is the many hoops to get a visa into Russia for US citizens (it is easier for many EU ones because Russia allows many of the EU country citizens to get e-visas), and the other hoops needed to physically travel.
As a US or EU citizen - you can travel to Finland or Estonia and take a bus into Russia. Alternatively, you can book airplane tickets through Dubai or Istanbul via a handful of sites that don't block Russian destinations but these tickets are quite expensive.
On the other hand, the much higher cost of travel via air is more than offset by the far lower costs in Russia over what was previously prime tourist season. In St Petersburg during May to July, for example, top end hotels would be $1000 a night with low end ones still in the $200-$300 range. Museums and what not would be over-run with tourists - basically the most popular exhibits like the Da Vincis, Rembrandts etc in the Hermitage would be inaccessible.
In contrast - this past June I was able to get into the Hermitage for 600 rubles = $8 at that time albeit this was a "late pass" (after 6 pm). There was no line for either Da Vincis or the Rembrandt room.
I was able to get a front row seat to the Don Carlos opera for 5000 rubles/$6y although the (several weeks) later showing with Gergiev conducting would have been 30K rubles, I was told.
Thanks. That's pretty fascinating. I personally know of two (one, really but almost two - long story) persons for whose travel plans the State Department directly intervened to prevent or hamper.
If you don't mind me asking, what would possibly take you to Russia more than once in half a year, considering the pariah status that the "West" has inflicted on them? Surely your experience sounds a lot like the times I visited Cuba during the Reagan and Bush years, but I was only there as a tourist and part-time activist.
It’s real all right. It’s from months ago. She’s a “marauder” whatever the Hell that means. It’s related to those people getting tied to poles. The green paint is for humiliation. It’s hard to get it off your skin. And she didn’t get raped in the clip.
Well, I can assure you 100% that it's real. It was definitely said to be real when it came out months ago. There never were any allegations that it was fake.
If bad musicians play long enough, eventually they must improve, and become MSM music for my ears.
Seriously, it's pivotal. As much as I despise them, the turnaround, no matter ulterior motive, means we're one step closer to ending this fucking unnecessary and horrible war.
"An error occurred during a connection to simplicius76.substack.com. The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because the authenticity of the received data could not be verified."
Battled to get back on this page after posting a comment which was tripled. Anyone else have a problem. Thinking of the Substack outage on the weekend (anyone know that cause?) but my country also had major two undersea cables severed in a rock fall in the Atlantic.
That's true there was a weird substack outage for me yesterday I believe. Also Twitter had a big problem all day long today, with none of the videos working. Might be some kind of attack on 'patriot' outlets
It was not hacked. It simply reached its expiration date. This cannot be hacked because it would invalidate the certificate which was issued by the certificate authority. It was not invalid, it was simply expired.
You can check that up for any website you visit.
Someone (who runs his website as I understand it's not Larry) simply forgot to replace it.
Russia may be conducting a successful defense, but, they are allowing the AFU to play a numbers game sending drones of all types, missiles and so on at Russian positions and cities. Something always gets through and that is simply not an acceptable condition for russian civilians to live through. I am in agreement that an eventual offensive needs to happen, and the only way to end this war is for either the regime in Kiev to be tossed out, or for a change in Moscow. So its existential.
It is interesting though the selection bias seen on social media. Whenever there's a hit a big deal is made of it. But in the past few days, Russia just successfully rebuffed a large drone swarm on Moscow, including a big missile attack on Kerch bridge which was completely neutralized by AD but no one bats an eye.
Btw Muscovites don't care, they're not even bothered by the feeble drone attacks. It only serves to drive recruiting numbers for new enlistments to the armed forces.
Belgorod on the other hand I feel bad for, that region's taken a pounding.
If your wife starts to suspect you were somewhere and you didn't tell her, she could suspect a mistress anyway. And if you tell her "but I was in Moscow", it will only reinforce her suspicion.
So if you want a mistress, find a mistress. If you want to go to Moscow, just say it. Maybe she'll want to join you?
Completely separate matter. Don't lie, always be truthful. Even if the truth is "I can't tell you that dear". Lies are poison to a marriage. It's got nothing to do with fearing women.
I'd even say that the man who finds a mistress is the real women-fearer. If he didn't fear women he'd have brought her home openly and you'd be calling her a second wife. If she's a mistress, by definition he's a coward skulking in the dark and hiding what he's doing. Because he fears his wife so much he doesn't have the balls to tell her she's got company.
Yeah can confirm. Have a summer home on the Moscow outskirts, heard some fireworks going off in the distance, was like "hm, could that be AA? Gotta check out".
Went out to look, saw it was fireworks, shrugged and went on with my life.
simplicius76, thank you for the highly informative posts. I am going to leave the site for awhile, come back later, but so far I have only read 40% of post and no comments. Still, I want to make a comment now. It seems as if there is great focus on Russia's actions and plans, but so far the comments on Ukraine's goals seem unrealistic. Keep in mind at the start of the war, Zelensky stated 2 goals. 1) Fight to the last Ukrainian 2) Transform Ukraine into "Greater Israel" He has been following these goals. It seems the first goal is necessary to create "Greater Israel", along with driving out 1/2 the population that ran to surrounding nations. The second goal might more accurately be to establish "New Khazaria" in the lands of Old Khazaria.
Great job as always, although you missed the new Ukrainian bridgehead established on the other side of the Dnepr just North of the already existing Antonov bridgehead.
Plus a previous video showing a Russian interacting with Ukrainian "prisoners" on the field, which turned out to allegedly be a fake: "The Ukrainian media operation allowed to hide the truth from the battlefield and gain some time to strengthen their positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper."
I can't think of these developments as being truly significant, but Russian inability to dislodge the bridgeheads makes me suspect there are still gaps in their line, at least in terms of artillery and drones and aviation that should be used to hamper the AFU resupplying across the river. Ok the AFU can employ counterbattery fire to punish any such Russian attempt at their supply line over the river but this speaks of a vulnerable Russian front. Luckily the drying up of the Kakovkha reservoir was not exploited by the AFU for any sortie in this sector (still...).
There's no bridgehead. In fact 2 separate Russian correspondents including Lera Petrusevich have reported today from "Cossack Camps" showing video proof it's under full Russian control.
Yes a few guys got randomly captured along the water, that doesn't mean anything. Dozens of AFU prisoners have been taken just in the past 2 days alone all over the fronts.
Ukraine lands a few guys on the shore all along the Dnieper, Russia bombs and dislodges them, rinse and repeat. That's not a "bridgehead".
Fact is, Russia is using very minimal resources to defend the entire Kherson region and Ukraine is expending huge resources and uncountable casualties continually trying to land on the shores while getting wiped out over and over. Did you miss the floaters from a couple days ago? https://www.bitchute.com/video/9WDS9jfuE5bd/
Man this report is from 28 June, and although Russia heavily bombed it with even an Iskander that Antonov bridge AFU strongpoint has not been reduced yet:
"Taking advantage of the disaster that claimed the lives of dozens of civilians and destroyed numerous settlements, the Ukrainian military has recently intensified its attacks on the eastern bank of the Dnieper in an attempt to seize a stronghold in an area controlled by Russian troops. [..]
More than 50 Ukrainian servicemen gained a strongpoint right next to the bridge. They are covered by Ukrainian artillery systems deployed in the western bank, as well as small drones, which are mainly used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to monitor the situation and strike at the Russian military. Ukrainian forces are also remotely mining the area.
The Ukrainian military benefits from the terrain, as their positions on the western bank are higher.
Ukrainian servicemen also managed to cross the river, hiding from Russian shelling under the Antonovsky Bridge and in houses located on the shore. Shelters are equipped under the bridge and electronic warfare systems were reportedly deployed in the area, blocking the work of Russian kamikaze drones.
In their turn, the Russian troops failed to prevent the AFU from seizing a stronghold in this area. Attempts by Russian troops to dislodge the AFU from the village reportedly resulted in losses of some military equipment, while the strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces on enemy positions turned out to be inaccurate.
The lack of accurate fire from Russian forces gives the Ukrainian military time to consolidate forces in Dachi.
Find it difficult to believe that Russians destroy the outpost only to be reoccupied by the AFU afterwards. If that's the pattern, why the Russians don't just mine the river near the bridge or establish an outpost themselves permanently covered by artillery
All the way to the attack on Cossack Ligeri of a week ago.
"Ukrainian attempts to cross the Dnieper river continue almost on a daily basis. The AFU is probing the front likely looking for some weak spots to expand their foothold on the eastern bank. Last night, the Russian Armed Forces knocked out the AFU from the area east of the railway bridge across the Dnieper, which Ukrainian forces attacked with small groups.
The AFU are still in control of the area near the Antonovsky Bridge on the eastern bank. The Ukrainian military continues operations across the river aimed to replace forces in the area and supply them. The day before, one of the boats was hit and failed to reach the eastern bank but the second crew succeeded."
The fact that they maintain this bridgehead with all that costs them, plus the fact that no one speaks or think about it, makes me think there will be an offensive in this direction, through the dried bed of the dammed reservoir with all probability
Yes, Ukraine has kept or reestablished that bridgehead for quite a while. The problem is in expanding it enough to make a difference and then supplying the bridgehead in its expanded capacity.
In other words, it’s hardly ideal for the Russian forces in the area but it’s also hardly a grand victory for Ukraine until significant Ukrainian forces and supplies are crossing the river. Even several hundred light infantry troops aren’t going to make a difference.
There, doesn't sound Russians have a very solid presence near the Antonov bridge:
"A group of Russian scouts launched a raid in the Ukrainian foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Their operation failed and Ukrainian forces spotted them and opened mortar fire. As a result, the Russian fighters were surrounded in one of the destroyed houses and could not rapidly get out of it, as some of them were wounded.
Ukrainian drones corrected mortar fire and threw grenades at Russian intelligence officers. At the same time, the Russian artillery could not detect and destroy the maneuverable mortar squads of the AFU."
...then they managed to hit the mortars with drones.
Just looking at that ukr refugees map tells all you need to know about who calls the shots inside the EU: Germany has to admit in over a million and a hundred thousands of refugees, France biggest country in Europe a tiny 67,000 Ukrs. Less than Ireland or Belgium, and about the same as Switzerland.
Living in Ireland I was shocked at the number of refugees as a % of our 5m population. Not to be unsympathetic to their plight, housing so many people on the tax payers’ tab is causing friction - hoteliers are making a killing as the state pays for their housing and food - but the cost of hotel accommodation for everyone else and the reduction in business in these tourist regions (Ukrainians are hardly enjoying the life of tourists) has very real, material impact on the small regional economies. Sucking this up is a big ask when this war is such BS brought about by US imperial goals and when a negotiated solution was viable long before the first shot was fired. And the failure of our media to call out the BS is costing all citizens - American, European and especially Ukrainian and Russians.
well to see the glass half full, at least these are not the usual African or Middle Eastern refugees that get hosted in hotels in the West at the expense of the taxpayer and wreak havoc to the place as soon as they are able to
The African asylum seekers are kept in camps (not ideal and many have skills which could be employed in the economy but there you go) and some are settled in smaller communities - guess it depends on the country from which they come. Interestingly, Dublin has a huge mosque in the suburbs and to date the Muslim community and native Irish have co-existed without trouble (IOW I’d be surprised if we were to see what’s happened in France or elsewhere in Europe . . . But these days, anything can happen!)
Trust me there was nothing spontaneous with the recent French racial riots... they were a flash in the pan... barely kept in the news cycle for one week.
Now the hybrid attack against France has morphed from that, into the shape of an African coup (Niger) that ousted French interests from this unconsequential region. The French can either smother the coup, and in that case they would be accused of brutal neo-colonialism, or do nothing and suffer international humiliation.
I don't think Wagner has much to do with it. More like Americans exerting pressure on Paris/the EU (in which French interests are dominant) for some disagreement about something else (like Ukraine or China policy)
these skits of Ireland fighting for decades against the "foreign oppressor" only to be invaded by foreigners just after the good friday agreement is a favourite talking point of the alt right https://odysee.com/@wayoftheworld:7/ire:5
I think the alt-right are over-egging the issue. RTE is the national news and the bulletin was showing how the immigrant population is learning Irish history (not stealing it). Some young interviewees relate to Ireland’s fight for freedom as they came from oppressive regimes themselves. Using Irish history to inform of the past and teach of the nastiness of inequality is a good thing IMO. That’s called assimilation.
As for Muhammad. Let’s put it in context. In 2022, the date referred to in the vox pop, Muhammad was 86th in the whole country in popularity with a whopping 72 new baby boys nationally. Note this is the most popular name (which doesn’t mean a lot of babies) in Galway City only (not all off Galway county). Ireland has around 5 million people - 72 Muhammads won’t make a massive impact.
Again to put it in context: The documented history of Islam in the Republic of Ireland dates back to the 1950s. The number of Muslims in the Republic of Ireland has increased since the 1990s, mostly through immigration. According to the 2022 Irish census, the number of Muslims resident in the Republic was 81,930 (1.59% of total population).
Yes it’s a change but the Alt-right are making mischief
Ireland is still early in the trajectory. The next step will be banning of pork in school lunches, cafees for men only (de facto only muslim men , due to the ambiance a kaffir gets when entering, like in France), people walking dogs getting harassed, getting stones thrown at them, increasing harassment of kaffir girls and women walking alone in in-modest clothing, calls for censorship of critizing islam, more muslim girls killed by their families (about 1 woman thrown out of a balcony per month in Sweden).
What is the unemployment in Ireland. its not low so what are you going to have them do sweep the streets which is not economic activity. Government employment is not productive work since it produces nothing. The government is the vampire sucking the cash from workers. Is Solent Green the future of Ireland.
There are help wanted signs everywhere - shops, restaurants, and hotels to name a few. We are short nurses and care givers, plenty of garden maintenance companies looking for staff, need electricians, plumbers and carpenters, builders need labour. Need I go on?
As for government work the asylum seekers are getting small entitlements to do nothing
BTW those with skills WANT to work. Who doesn’t?? Fierce boring and soul destroying to not accomplish anything all day especially when one has skills
Never seen Soylent Green and the only major corporations here are US tech (which are trying to import the woke culture nonsense) Oligarchic control in not yet a feature in Ireland unlike the US. The people here still have a strong say in government policy and long may that last!
soylent green = dead humans turned into human food. The point is that people should have productive work not leaching off those that produce.
Employment figures are not a good measure of anything. % of working age 18-55 people working is a better figure. here in the US it is about 65% and it goes down every year.
i believe nothing the government or media says about any subject. i assume everything they say is a lie. i don't believe any one source i read many sources and come to a general idea of the facts subject to modification. i watch a variety of youtube videos by different presenters on a topic I know nothing about.
Agreed, however they are not labeled as US...United States imperial goals they are globalist goals using the plebs as in...the United States as thier tax revenues printing machinery. Labor/war force bitch well see.
Good clarification - when I refer to the US or any other country I’m usually referring to the leadership or the power brokers who may or may not be the same. The average person is the same the world over in my experience - most just want a simple life - provide for themselves and families, a roof over their heads, and enjoy a meal and/or drink with friends with the odd holiday thrown in.
The article from Kiev Ukraine reminds me of the scene from Gone with the Wind after the battle of Gettysburg when almost every family in Georgia knew someone who was killed there. Families lost 2-r of their sons or husbands and their grief was palpable.
Strategic Culture says that possibly 500,000 Ukrainians have died and gawd only knows how many have been wounded. Around 60,000 have lost a limb. And now the people responsible for this ungawdly loss of life are admitting that they knew that Ukraine wouldn’t be able to beat Russia, but they hoped that they would give a good effort. I want everyone who knew that Ukraine didn’t stand a chance held responsible for the massive loss of lives! But I know there’s a slim chance of that happening.
Even the 60k lost limbs I'm skeptical of only because long ago about last autumn or so was a leaked report that already had 50-60k limb amputations so I'd expect it to be far more by now, though anything's possible.
I can't see Russia agreeing to anything without getting Odessa...that is crucial..But I expect them to rout the Ukrainians in the spring, if not before...Isn't there a Russian Presidential election coming up?!
The Russian public won't be happy unless the Ukro-Nazis have been permanently dealt with....
I think you're close. I am more leaning to a mid-late summer collapse of Ukraine and support. This way Putin will get some great revenge on the U. S. elite and administration for their national election.
"And guess how many total VDV MediaZona has verified the deaths of? ~1600. So this is in sync with General Teplinsky’s own figures as it would put Russian KIA to WIA ratio at a steeper 1:5 or so which is explained by the fact that Russia’s better battlefield medicine and medevac capabilities ensures fewer KIAs compared to simply wounded as a far larger percentage of wounded are successfully treated."
I think this paragraph is a little optimistic, and verges into rah rah for Russia. I'm more inclined to think that Russian KIA to WIA are a more normal 3:1 or 4:1, and the gap between 1600 and 8500/4 is the margin of error on Mediazona's method. That would put total Russian KIA at 30k*(8500/(4*1600)) = 40k. 30k*(8500/(3*1600)) = 53k at the top end.
That's certainly possible. As I understand it MediaZona has 30k "confirmed" KIA total at the moment? So if we assume they can only confirm 70-80% of the real number then your figures are possible. Prigozhin claims 20k Wagners died, this is hard to compute because there's incentive for him to exaggerate the figures. But if those figures are accurate then total Russian KIA including Wagner has to be north of 50k simply because Russian army proper plus LPR/DPR is at least 20-30k total if not more.
Yup, there's going to be some slack in the method MediaZona are using. Bunch of soldiers who don't use social media and/or don't have family to post obituaries, at a minimum, assuming they're doing a perfect job at finding every single post and obit that does happen. Realistically there'll be a miss chance on their search as well.
20% total miss rate would be doing very well, I wouldn't be surprised if it was more like 30-40%.
My working hypothesis is that always-online people generally assume everyone else is online as much as they are, and in reality there's a significant proportion of people even in very rich countries that still don't care about the internet.
I also wondered if some subsets of soldierdom are more likely to be on social media than others. Maybe the VDV attracts more of that sort of person, or less, either would affect any extrapolations we make. It's all very sloppy, but good enough to get a reasonable feel for the order of magnitude of losses anyway.
They also get obituaries from city/municipality offices, public registries and so on. These are usually public (and even advertised) in order to make you know that someone you don't have contact with has passed.
It's how people learned about someone's death before the internet and it's still going on, because very few people actually monitor even their own contact list or watch social media in such a way they would be able to notice.
It actually makes the core of MediaZona's data and unless it's some big city, it should be relatively easy to confirm that a certain person is the same one who was declared officially dead by his place of residence.
Believe how far the Russians go beyond the four basic oblasts depends on whether or not Ukraine/The West is willing to do a deal. Demilitarize/guarantee Russian security and it will be over. I don't think that is likely, so on we go. To the point of artillery shell mathematics, I don't know why the Russians don't just buy a couple of million from DPRK. Maybe they have.
I think they're doing that too, but the problem is even a couple million (if we're talking per year) is really next to nothing. That's 1 month's worth of expenditures at a decently high rate. And remember, Russia was firing 60k a day at a time their force was a tiny 80-100k men. Imagine how many shells they'd love to preferably fire with a force of 400-600k as they have now or will have next year. Such a force would probably need 100k++ per day. This would eat 3M shells per month, a quantity no one, even North Korea, could think of producing in anything but the most ungodly ramped up 'war-time economy' conditions.
But this is the pivotal moment to negotiate, not during years of future war. More than at any stage since this started, I believe now is the time to maximise pressure. More will die, and I shudder at that, but its so less die in the long run, and so that the world reaches a stable realignment quicker.
There's a slight bummer here. Russian artillery shell production was reported to be between 700k and 1.7M in 2021 (depending on source).
If they produce 20 times as much now, that yields anywhere between 38k-93k per day.
Also, it has been said by a few officials that Russia can now equip and supply these 2 newly created military districts with equipment and material, which would suggest that perhaps their current production should be at least equal to what they're using or at least comfortably close to.
I would suggest that the absolute amount is not as useful as the relative amount.
People are blithely throwing around numbers, but the material requirements are a better way to gauge cost, effort and capability.
For example: the EPA has been reporting on the US explosives industry for decades. The 1977 EPA report says that in 1971, the entire US explosives industry consumed 198 bcm of natural gas (plus a bunch of other inputs from coal to oil to electricity) to produce 76 gigagrams of explosives. If we use this ratio as a simple rule of thumb, and the fact that 155mm shells have 10 kg of explosives in them, then 198 bcm of natural gas produces explosives equivalent to 7.6 million 155 mm artillery shells (76 gigagrams -> 76 million kilograms, divided by 10 per shell).
198 bcm is a non trivial amount. The entire United States consumed 827 bcm of natural gas per year while the EU consumed 397 bcm of natural gas in 2021.
So producing enough shells to fire 20K shells/day = 7.3 million shells per year = ~190 bcm of natural gas needed (to produce the nitric acid used to make most modern explosives from TNT to RDX).
Can the US or EU afford to do this without going to a full war economy?
I think not. Even doing a fraction of the 7.3 million shells/year is going to suck A LOT of natural gas supply up meaning cost of natural gas will skyrocket for all of the existing civilian uses: nitrogen fertilizer production = more expensive food and electricity generation = more expensive electricity being the biggest ones.
If you are referencing the US Explosives industry in 1971 - I doubt the US was importing much from the Soviet Union.
Today, there is considerable production in the US although you are correct that Russia is probably the largest nitrogen fertilizer exporter in the world.
North Korea needs them. Why give the empire an opening on your Southern border? Maybe they could have them ramp up manufacturing and begin supplying some.
A big new tranche of up to $24 billion dollars in new funding for the war is coming up in the US congress. Options have shifted dramatically over the past year. But the people who voted for the first $100 billion can’t just admit that all we did is spend a lot of money we didn’t have in order to keep the war going long enough to kill a few hundred thousand more people, without changing the ultimate outcome. If the Ukrainian army collapses before next November, all of that spending and all of those deaths fall on Joe Biden’s frail head. So the war must go on.
Fascinating to see all the revisionism about US war fighting doctrine. It’s useless in Ukraine because it assumes a massive material superiority aka asymmetric warfare doctrine. We were training the Ukrainians how to spot an insurgent in a crowd. And how to sit back and let the air strikes take care of things, then move in and take prisoners. Now our doctrine is under serious challenge.
One thing to realize is that the top-line number for these allocations is misleading. Only a fraction of the dollars actually goes to Ukrainian coffers or to weapons and supplies. There are plenty of government (and NG) vultures picking the bones too. They just have to claim their efforts are helping the "fight for democracy". Plus more and more these monies are going for things years out.
But what do you mean " money we don't have" , just let the presses roll baby roll. 🙃🥳
And, oddly, the administration has refused any attempt to impose any sort of auditing or accountability for where this money that we are sending to the most corrupt government on the planet actually goes. One article claims Zelinski has already pocketed half a billion from the “skim fund” set up specifically for that purpose. But Z has been too greedy and the other corrupt oligarchs are getting upset.
Another mountain of a post that I will have to continue reading tomorrow. I do love the chopper pilots and videos. I always have had the utmost respect for those that fly them. Cool story about their supporter.
The cage trucks are interesting, how quickly things are invented on behalf of war.
Dude, you clearly are not living in Russia and have no idea what Russians actually think.
Inflation now is much, much less than it has been at any time for decades.
Ditto interest rates on loans. As a simple example: you could get 10%+ interest rates on deposits just 6 years ago - meaning loan interest rates with 18%+
As for prices of goods - again, you don't apparently live in Russia or you would understand that Russians are making more rubles, too. I'm not saying it is all roses, but the economic situation in Russia today is far, far, far more optimistic than it has been for a long time - since 2007 in fact.
Have you even visited Russia in the last 5 years? Ever?
Low to zero credibility.
Have you ever been to Russia yourself? I'm living here since i was born in Sverdlovsk 35 years ago. I fully expect to see a "no true Scotsman" from you next.
Well, I live in Russia and 99% of your post is concern trolling.
Yes, I have. A large number of times including this year.
That's why pretty much all you were writing about is bullshit.
You're saying that the US DoS allowed you to travel to Russia multiple times this year in a personal/business capacity? I'd read that this is exceedingly rare these days.
The US Department of State has zero control over where US citizens travel.
The primary barrier is the many hoops to get a visa into Russia for US citizens (it is easier for many EU ones because Russia allows many of the EU country citizens to get e-visas), and the other hoops needed to physically travel.
As a US or EU citizen - you can travel to Finland or Estonia and take a bus into Russia. Alternatively, you can book airplane tickets through Dubai or Istanbul via a handful of sites that don't block Russian destinations but these tickets are quite expensive.
On the other hand, the much higher cost of travel via air is more than offset by the far lower costs in Russia over what was previously prime tourist season. In St Petersburg during May to July, for example, top end hotels would be $1000 a night with low end ones still in the $200-$300 range. Museums and what not would be over-run with tourists - basically the most popular exhibits like the Da Vincis, Rembrandts etc in the Hermitage would be inaccessible.
In contrast - this past June I was able to get into the Hermitage for 600 rubles = $8 at that time albeit this was a "late pass" (after 6 pm). There was no line for either Da Vincis or the Rembrandt room.
I was able to get a front row seat to the Don Carlos opera for 5000 rubles/$6y although the (several weeks) later showing with Gergiev conducting would have been 30K rubles, I was told.
Thanks. That's pretty fascinating. I personally know of two (one, really but almost two - long story) persons for whose travel plans the State Department directly intervened to prevent or hamper.
If you don't mind me asking, what would possibly take you to Russia more than once in half a year, considering the pariah status that the "West" has inflicted on them? Surely your experience sounds a lot like the times I visited Cuba during the Reagan and Bush years, but I was only there as a tourist and part-time activist.
This video disturbed me so its important to confirm what's happening. @simplicius76, could you help with translation? Source?
It’s real all right. It’s from months ago. She’s a “marauder” whatever the Hell that means. It’s related to those people getting tied to poles. The green paint is for humiliation. It’s hard to get it off your skin. And she didn’t get raped in the clip.
It sure seems real but for me to repost I need proof.
Well, I can assure you 100% that it's real. It was definitely said to be real when it came out months ago. There never were any allegations that it was fake.
Allegedly "marauders" are looters. She didn't seem like a looter to me.
If bad musicians play long enough, eventually they must improve, and become MSM music for my ears.
Seriously, it's pivotal. As much as I despise them, the turnaround, no matter ulterior motive, means we're one step closer to ending this fucking unnecessary and horrible war.
"An error occurred during a connection to simplicius76.substack.com. The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because the authenticity of the received data could not be verified."
Battled to get back on this page after posting a comment which was tripled. Anyone else have a problem. Thinking of the Substack outage on the weekend (anyone know that cause?) but my country also had major two undersea cables severed in a rock fall in the Atlantic.
That's true there was a weird substack outage for me yesterday I believe. Also Twitter had a big problem all day long today, with none of the videos working. Might be some kind of attack on 'patriot' outlets
Always better to known I'm in the same trench than alone.
Larry Johnson had the same issue a couple of days back...
SSL based.
Larry's SSL certificate simply expired. That can be checked in any browser.
His certificate was likely hacked. He had to take measures to restore it, I believe.
It was not hacked. It simply reached its expiration date. This cannot be hacked because it would invalidate the certificate which was issued by the certificate authority. It was not invalid, it was simply expired.
You can check that up for any website you visit.
Someone (who runs his website as I understand it's not Larry) simply forgot to replace it.
More likely they are attacks on freedom of information outlets.
The cult of the gormless are suddenly enamoured with patriotism.
There is a Union Jack flying outside the local school.
Those commie teachers would have reported any such flag to the police as a hate symbol before this war started.
.
“The Angel of Death has been abroad throughout the land; you may almost hear the beating of his wings” -John Bright
On February 23, 1855, John Bright, made the speech of his life. Opposing the Crimean War
Russia may be conducting a successful defense, but, they are allowing the AFU to play a numbers game sending drones of all types, missiles and so on at Russian positions and cities. Something always gets through and that is simply not an acceptable condition for russian civilians to live through. I am in agreement that an eventual offensive needs to happen, and the only way to end this war is for either the regime in Kiev to be tossed out, or for a change in Moscow. So its existential.
It is interesting though the selection bias seen on social media. Whenever there's a hit a big deal is made of it. But in the past few days, Russia just successfully rebuffed a large drone swarm on Moscow, including a big missile attack on Kerch bridge which was completely neutralized by AD but no one bats an eye.
Btw Muscovites don't care, they're not even bothered by the feeble drone attacks. It only serves to drive recruiting numbers for new enlistments to the armed forces.
Belgorod on the other hand I feel bad for, that region's taken a pounding.
I'm going to Moscow in October on business and am having to lie to my wife about it. So its not nothing
Do not lie to your wife about it! It can bite you in your ass in a terrible way later!
Find a mistess so u learn not to fear women
Correct. A man in control of his home and woman has no need to lie.
If you want a mistress, find a mistress.
If your wife starts to suspect you were somewhere and you didn't tell her, she could suspect a mistress anyway. And if you tell her "but I was in Moscow", it will only reinforce her suspicion.
So if you want a mistress, find a mistress. If you want to go to Moscow, just say it. Maybe she'll want to join you?
Completely separate matter. Don't lie, always be truthful. Even if the truth is "I can't tell you that dear". Lies are poison to a marriage. It's got nothing to do with fearing women.
I'd even say that the man who finds a mistress is the real women-fearer. If he didn't fear women he'd have brought her home openly and you'd be calling her a second wife. If she's a mistress, by definition he's a coward skulking in the dark and hiding what he's doing. Because he fears his wife so much he doesn't have the balls to tell her she's got company.
Just don't lie to your wife. Or get a mistress.
Moscow is a beautiful place mid-autumn, make sure to visit it’s serene parks and keep you umbrella at hand.
Oh no, not the "i have to lie to my wife" line. Get a better handler, man, the current one is feeding you shitty texts to post.
Please tell us more.
Yeah can confirm. Have a summer home on the Moscow outskirts, heard some fireworks going off in the distance, was like "hm, could that be AA? Gotta check out".
Went out to look, saw it was fireworks, shrugged and went on with my life.
I POSTED THIS IN 2 PLACES
simplicius76, thank you for the highly informative posts. I am going to leave the site for awhile, come back later, but so far I have only read 40% of post and no comments. Still, I want to make a comment now. It seems as if there is great focus on Russia's actions and plans, but so far the comments on Ukraine's goals seem unrealistic. Keep in mind at the start of the war, Zelensky stated 2 goals. 1) Fight to the last Ukrainian 2) Transform Ukraine into "Greater Israel" He has been following these goals. It seems the first goal is necessary to create "Greater Israel", along with driving out 1/2 the population that ran to surrounding nations. The second goal might more accurately be to establish "New Khazaria" in the lands of Old Khazaria.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/03/10/the-hidden-history-of-the-incredibly-evil-khazarian-mafia/
https://www.vtforeignpolicy.com/?s=Khazarian+Mafia
It’s a sin to ever imply Israel has done anything except Gods will.
The chosen people still hate Christian beliefs and don’t accept Jesus as our Savior.
The KM is hiding behind the “holocaust” and inflicting grave danger to the world.
How many wars were won by being only on the defensive?
Exactly. None.
Can't say I've thought of any of the top of my head.
The Fabian strategy
Fabius eventually did go on the offensive after wearing down Hannibal.
The Podcast A History of Rome is really nice if one has the patience, like 100 episodes
Ask the Taliban for the most recent example.
Did not the Taliban go on the offensive at the end?
Did they? They simply walked in. There was very little of actual fighting.
There was a fair amount of fighting, then once the first provincial capitals fell, the Kabul regime collapsed.
Point being that the Taliban didn't simply wait for the regime to disappear.
Great job as always, although you missed the new Ukrainian bridgehead established on the other side of the Dnepr just North of the already existing Antonov bridgehead.
Plus a previous video showing a Russian interacting with Ukrainian "prisoners" on the field, which turned out to allegedly be a fake: "The Ukrainian media operation allowed to hide the truth from the battlefield and gain some time to strengthen their positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper."
https://southfront.org/ukrainian-forces-gained-new-foothold-captured-russian-servicemen-in-recent-battles-in-kherson-region/
I can't think of these developments as being truly significant, but Russian inability to dislodge the bridgeheads makes me suspect there are still gaps in their line, at least in terms of artillery and drones and aviation that should be used to hamper the AFU resupplying across the river. Ok the AFU can employ counterbattery fire to punish any such Russian attempt at their supply line over the river but this speaks of a vulnerable Russian front. Luckily the drying up of the Kakovkha reservoir was not exploited by the AFU for any sortie in this sector (still...).
There's no bridgehead. In fact 2 separate Russian correspondents including Lera Petrusevich have reported today from "Cossack Camps" showing video proof it's under full Russian control.
Yes a few guys got randomly captured along the water, that doesn't mean anything. Dozens of AFU prisoners have been taken just in the past 2 days alone all over the fronts.
Ukraine lands a few guys on the shore all along the Dnieper, Russia bombs and dislodges them, rinse and repeat. That's not a "bridgehead".
Fact is, Russia is using very minimal resources to defend the entire Kherson region and Ukraine is expending huge resources and uncountable casualties continually trying to land on the shores while getting wiped out over and over. Did you miss the floaters from a couple days ago? https://www.bitchute.com/video/9WDS9jfuE5bd/
Man this report is from 28 June, and although Russia heavily bombed it with even an Iskander that Antonov bridge AFU strongpoint has not been reduced yet:
"Taking advantage of the disaster that claimed the lives of dozens of civilians and destroyed numerous settlements, the Ukrainian military has recently intensified its attacks on the eastern bank of the Dnieper in an attempt to seize a stronghold in an area controlled by Russian troops. [..]
More than 50 Ukrainian servicemen gained a strongpoint right next to the bridge. They are covered by Ukrainian artillery systems deployed in the western bank, as well as small drones, which are mainly used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to monitor the situation and strike at the Russian military. Ukrainian forces are also remotely mining the area.
The Ukrainian military benefits from the terrain, as their positions on the western bank are higher.
Ukrainian servicemen also managed to cross the river, hiding from Russian shelling under the Antonovsky Bridge and in houses located on the shore. Shelters are equipped under the bridge and electronic warfare systems were reportedly deployed in the area, blocking the work of Russian kamikaze drones.
In their turn, the Russian troops failed to prevent the AFU from seizing a stronghold in this area. Attempts by Russian troops to dislodge the AFU from the village reportedly resulted in losses of some military equipment, while the strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces on enemy positions turned out to be inaccurate.
The lack of accurate fire from Russian forces gives the Ukrainian military time to consolidate forces in Dachi.
https://southfront.org/ukraine-launched-offensive-on-the-eastern-bank-of-the-dnieper-river/
The Antonov bridge isn't a strong point. It's just some Bandera soldiers stuck in a bad spot.
Antonov bridgehead reported "destroyed or withdrawn" by a missile attack a few days later:
https://southfront.org/kiev-forces-face-setback-in-kherson-continue-attacks-in-other-sectors-videos/
Here is a map from 15 July showing that three weeks after the initial seizing of the bridgehead, the AFU is still there at that time
https://southfront.org/military-situation-near-antonovsky-bridge-kherson-region-on-july-15-2023-map-update/
Find it difficult to believe that Russians destroy the outpost only to be reoccupied by the AFU afterwards. If that's the pattern, why the Russians don't just mine the river near the bridge or establish an outpost themselves permanently covered by artillery
All the way to the attack on Cossack Ligeri of a week ago.
"Ukrainian attempts to cross the Dnieper river continue almost on a daily basis. The AFU is probing the front likely looking for some weak spots to expand their foothold on the eastern bank. Last night, the Russian Armed Forces knocked out the AFU from the area east of the railway bridge across the Dnieper, which Ukrainian forces attacked with small groups.
The AFU are still in control of the area near the Antonovsky Bridge on the eastern bank. The Ukrainian military continues operations across the river aimed to replace forces in the area and supply them. The day before, one of the boats was hit and failed to reach the eastern bank but the second crew succeeded."
https://southfront.org/ukrainian-forces-attempted-to-gain-new-stronghold-on-eastern-bank-of-dnieper-river/
The AFU are still in control of the area near the Antonovsky Bridge on the eastern bank.
And they have been for nearly two months now.
https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-kherson-region-on-august-13-2023-map-update/
The fact that they maintain this bridgehead with all that costs them, plus the fact that no one speaks or think about it, makes me think there will be an offensive in this direction, through the dried bed of the dammed reservoir with all probability
Yes, Ukraine has kept or reestablished that bridgehead for quite a while. The problem is in expanding it enough to make a difference and then supplying the bridgehead in its expanded capacity.
In other words, it’s hardly ideal for the Russian forces in the area but it’s also hardly a grand victory for Ukraine until significant Ukrainian forces and supplies are crossing the river. Even several hundred light infantry troops aren’t going to make a difference.
Last one is the Ukraine war's daily news episode https://southfront.org/kyiv-pushes-forward-on-southern-frontlines/ for today confirming the Ukrainians are fighting to link the two bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Dnepr
There, doesn't sound Russians have a very solid presence near the Antonov bridge:
"A group of Russian scouts launched a raid in the Ukrainian foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Their operation failed and Ukrainian forces spotted them and opened mortar fire. As a result, the Russian fighters were surrounded in one of the destroyed houses and could not rapidly get out of it, as some of them were wounded.
Ukrainian drones corrected mortar fire and threw grenades at Russian intelligence officers. At the same time, the Russian artillery could not detect and destroy the maneuverable mortar squads of the AFU."
...then they managed to hit the mortars with drones.
https://southfront.org/russian-fpv-drones-prove-their-effectiveness-in-battle-near-antonovsky-bridge/
Nevertheless, the Eastern bank of Dnepr near Kherson appears to be Ukrainian turf now
Just looking at that ukr refugees map tells all you need to know about who calls the shots inside the EU: Germany has to admit in over a million and a hundred thousands of refugees, France biggest country in Europe a tiny 67,000 Ukrs. Less than Ireland or Belgium, and about the same as Switzerland.
Living in Ireland I was shocked at the number of refugees as a % of our 5m population. Not to be unsympathetic to their plight, housing so many people on the tax payers’ tab is causing friction - hoteliers are making a killing as the state pays for their housing and food - but the cost of hotel accommodation for everyone else and the reduction in business in these tourist regions (Ukrainians are hardly enjoying the life of tourists) has very real, material impact on the small regional economies. Sucking this up is a big ask when this war is such BS brought about by US imperial goals and when a negotiated solution was viable long before the first shot was fired. And the failure of our media to call out the BS is costing all citizens - American, European and especially Ukrainian and Russians.
well to see the glass half full, at least these are not the usual African or Middle Eastern refugees that get hosted in hotels in the West at the expense of the taxpayer and wreak havoc to the place as soon as they are able to
The African asylum seekers are kept in camps (not ideal and many have skills which could be employed in the economy but there you go) and some are settled in smaller communities - guess it depends on the country from which they come. Interestingly, Dublin has a huge mosque in the suburbs and to date the Muslim community and native Irish have co-existed without trouble (IOW I’d be surprised if we were to see what’s happened in France or elsewhere in Europe . . . But these days, anything can happen!)
Trust me there was nothing spontaneous with the recent French racial riots... they were a flash in the pan... barely kept in the news cycle for one week.
Now the hybrid attack against France has morphed from that, into the shape of an African coup (Niger) that ousted French interests from this unconsequential region. The French can either smother the coup, and in that case they would be accused of brutal neo-colonialism, or do nothing and suffer international humiliation.
I don't think Wagner has much to do with it. More like Americans exerting pressure on Paris/the EU (in which French interests are dominant) for some disagreement about something else (like Ukraine or China policy)
these skits of Ireland fighting for decades against the "foreign oppressor" only to be invaded by foreigners just after the good friday agreement is a favourite talking point of the alt right https://odysee.com/@wayoftheworld:7/ire:5
and https://odysee.com/@wayoftheworld:7/g:f9
I think the alt-right are over-egging the issue. RTE is the national news and the bulletin was showing how the immigrant population is learning Irish history (not stealing it). Some young interviewees relate to Ireland’s fight for freedom as they came from oppressive regimes themselves. Using Irish history to inform of the past and teach of the nastiness of inequality is a good thing IMO. That’s called assimilation.
As for Muhammad. Let’s put it in context. In 2022, the date referred to in the vox pop, Muhammad was 86th in the whole country in popularity with a whopping 72 new baby boys nationally. Note this is the most popular name (which doesn’t mean a lot of babies) in Galway City only (not all off Galway county). Ireland has around 5 million people - 72 Muhammads won’t make a massive impact.
Again to put it in context: The documented history of Islam in the Republic of Ireland dates back to the 1950s. The number of Muslims in the Republic of Ireland has increased since the 1990s, mostly through immigration. According to the 2022 Irish census, the number of Muslims resident in the Republic was 81,930 (1.59% of total population).
Yes it’s a change but the Alt-right are making mischief
Ireland is still early in the trajectory. The next step will be banning of pork in school lunches, cafees for men only (de facto only muslim men , due to the ambiance a kaffir gets when entering, like in France), people walking dogs getting harassed, getting stones thrown at them, increasing harassment of kaffir girls and women walking alone in in-modest clothing, calls for censorship of critizing islam, more muslim girls killed by their families (about 1 woman thrown out of a balcony per month in Sweden).
I agree with you that the Alt Right tends to sensationalize any bit or piece they can find which is amenable to sustaining their narrative.
Basically they often overemphasize a genuine threat... so I cannot really criticise FkDahl's above projection into the future.
What is the unemployment in Ireland. its not low so what are you going to have them do sweep the streets which is not economic activity. Government employment is not productive work since it produces nothing. The government is the vampire sucking the cash from workers. Is Solent Green the future of Ireland.
There are help wanted signs everywhere - shops, restaurants, and hotels to name a few. We are short nurses and care givers, plenty of garden maintenance companies looking for staff, need electricians, plumbers and carpenters, builders need labour. Need I go on?
As for government work the asylum seekers are getting small entitlements to do nothing
BTW those with skills WANT to work. Who doesn’t?? Fierce boring and soul destroying to not accomplish anything all day especially when one has skills
Never seen Soylent Green and the only major corporations here are US tech (which are trying to import the woke culture nonsense) Oligarchic control in not yet a feature in Ireland unlike the US. The people here still have a strong say in government policy and long may that last!
PS unemployment is 4.1%
soylent green = dead humans turned into human food. The point is that people should have productive work not leaching off those that produce.
Employment figures are not a good measure of anything. % of working age 18-55 people working is a better figure. here in the US it is about 65% and it goes down every year.
i believe nothing the government or media says about any subject. i assume everything they say is a lie. i don't believe any one source i read many sources and come to a general idea of the facts subject to modification. i watch a variety of youtube videos by different presenters on a topic I know nothing about.
Agreed, however they are not labeled as US...United States imperial goals they are globalist goals using the plebs as in...the United States as thier tax revenues printing machinery. Labor/war force bitch well see.
Good clarification - when I refer to the US or any other country I’m usually referring to the leadership or the power brokers who may or may not be the same. The average person is the same the world over in my experience - most just want a simple life - provide for themselves and families, a roof over their heads, and enjoy a meal and/or drink with friends with the odd holiday thrown in.
Well some are good breeden stoke for the aryan race
can't deny that, though potential gold digger alert
gold diggers always dangerous
The article from Kiev Ukraine reminds me of the scene from Gone with the Wind after the battle of Gettysburg when almost every family in Georgia knew someone who was killed there. Families lost 2-r of their sons or husbands and their grief was palpable.
Strategic Culture says that possibly 500,000 Ukrainians have died and gawd only knows how many have been wounded. Around 60,000 have lost a limb. And now the people responsible for this ungawdly loss of life are admitting that they knew that Ukraine wouldn’t be able to beat Russia, but they hoped that they would give a good effort. I want everyone who knew that Ukraine didn’t stand a chance held responsible for the massive loss of lives! But I know there’s a slim chance of that happening.
Even the 60k lost limbs I'm skeptical of only because long ago about last autumn or so was a leaked report that already had 50-60k limb amputations so I'd expect it to be far more by now, though anything's possible.
Or organ "donors"?
"Missing in action"
I can't see Russia agreeing to anything without getting Odessa...that is crucial..But I expect them to rout the Ukrainians in the spring, if not before...Isn't there a Russian Presidential election coming up?!
The Russian public won't be happy unless the Ukro-Nazis have been permanently dealt with....
I think you're close. I am more leaning to a mid-late summer collapse of Ukraine and support. This way Putin will get some great revenge on the U. S. elite and administration for their national election.
"And guess how many total VDV MediaZona has verified the deaths of? ~1600. So this is in sync with General Teplinsky’s own figures as it would put Russian KIA to WIA ratio at a steeper 1:5 or so which is explained by the fact that Russia’s better battlefield medicine and medevac capabilities ensures fewer KIAs compared to simply wounded as a far larger percentage of wounded are successfully treated."
I think this paragraph is a little optimistic, and verges into rah rah for Russia. I'm more inclined to think that Russian KIA to WIA are a more normal 3:1 or 4:1, and the gap between 1600 and 8500/4 is the margin of error on Mediazona's method. That would put total Russian KIA at 30k*(8500/(4*1600)) = 40k. 30k*(8500/(3*1600)) = 53k at the top end.
That's certainly possible. As I understand it MediaZona has 30k "confirmed" KIA total at the moment? So if we assume they can only confirm 70-80% of the real number then your figures are possible. Prigozhin claims 20k Wagners died, this is hard to compute because there's incentive for him to exaggerate the figures. But if those figures are accurate then total Russian KIA including Wagner has to be north of 50k simply because Russian army proper plus LPR/DPR is at least 20-30k total if not more.
Yup, there's going to be some slack in the method MediaZona are using. Bunch of soldiers who don't use social media and/or don't have family to post obituaries, at a minimum, assuming they're doing a perfect job at finding every single post and obit that does happen. Realistically there'll be a miss chance on their search as well.
20% total miss rate would be doing very well, I wouldn't be surprised if it was more like 30-40%.
My working hypothesis is that always-online people generally assume everyone else is online as much as they are, and in reality there's a significant proportion of people even in very rich countries that still don't care about the internet.
I also wondered if some subsets of soldierdom are more likely to be on social media than others. Maybe the VDV attracts more of that sort of person, or less, either would affect any extrapolations we make. It's all very sloppy, but good enough to get a reasonable feel for the order of magnitude of losses anyway.
They also get obituaries from city/municipality offices, public registries and so on. These are usually public (and even advertised) in order to make you know that someone you don't have contact with has passed.
It's how people learned about someone's death before the internet and it's still going on, because very few people actually monitor even their own contact list or watch social media in such a way they would be able to notice.
It actually makes the core of MediaZona's data and unless it's some big city, it should be relatively easy to confirm that a certain person is the same one who was declared officially dead by his place of residence.
thanks simplicius.. much appreciated..
Believe how far the Russians go beyond the four basic oblasts depends on whether or not Ukraine/The West is willing to do a deal. Demilitarize/guarantee Russian security and it will be over. I don't think that is likely, so on we go. To the point of artillery shell mathematics, I don't know why the Russians don't just buy a couple of million from DPRK. Maybe they have.
I think they're doing that too, but the problem is even a couple million (if we're talking per year) is really next to nothing. That's 1 month's worth of expenditures at a decently high rate. And remember, Russia was firing 60k a day at a time their force was a tiny 80-100k men. Imagine how many shells they'd love to preferably fire with a force of 400-600k as they have now or will have next year. Such a force would probably need 100k++ per day. This would eat 3M shells per month, a quantity no one, even North Korea, could think of producing in anything but the most ungodly ramped up 'war-time economy' conditions.
But this is the pivotal moment to negotiate, not during years of future war. More than at any stage since this started, I believe now is the time to maximise pressure. More will die, and I shudder at that, but its so less die in the long run, and so that the world reaches a stable realignment quicker.
There's a slight bummer here. Russian artillery shell production was reported to be between 700k and 1.7M in 2021 (depending on source).
If they produce 20 times as much now, that yields anywhere between 38k-93k per day.
Also, it has been said by a few officials that Russia can now equip and supply these 2 newly created military districts with equipment and material, which would suggest that perhaps their current production should be at least equal to what they're using or at least comfortably close to.
I would suggest that the absolute amount is not as useful as the relative amount.
People are blithely throwing around numbers, but the material requirements are a better way to gauge cost, effort and capability.
For example: the EPA has been reporting on the US explosives industry for decades. The 1977 EPA report says that in 1971, the entire US explosives industry consumed 198 bcm of natural gas (plus a bunch of other inputs from coal to oil to electricity) to produce 76 gigagrams of explosives. If we use this ratio as a simple rule of thumb, and the fact that 155mm shells have 10 kg of explosives in them, then 198 bcm of natural gas produces explosives equivalent to 7.6 million 155 mm artillery shells (76 gigagrams -> 76 million kilograms, divided by 10 per shell).
198 bcm is a non trivial amount. The entire United States consumed 827 bcm of natural gas per year while the EU consumed 397 bcm of natural gas in 2021.
So producing enough shells to fire 20K shells/day = 7.3 million shells per year = ~190 bcm of natural gas needed (to produce the nitric acid used to make most modern explosives from TNT to RDX).
Can the US or EU afford to do this without going to a full war economy?
I think not. Even doing a fraction of the 7.3 million shells/year is going to suck A LOT of natural gas supply up meaning cost of natural gas will skyrocket for all of the existing civilian uses: nitrogen fertilizer production = more expensive food and electricity generation = more expensive electricity being the biggest ones.
Nice summery.
It's OK. The Germans don't need industry. Or fertilizers. Or to eat.
WW1 would not have lasted more than 6 months without the Haber-Bosch process.
Quite true - the "traditional" methods of nitric acid production were not available to Germany but were available for the Allies.
I think some of that energy came from Russia since they produced some if not all of the nitrogen components as ammonia or sodium nitrate.
Russia produces most of the nitrogen based fertilizers for the world due to abundance of natural gas andii imagine environmental law in US.
If you are referencing the US Explosives industry in 1971 - I doubt the US was importing much from the Soviet Union.
Today, there is considerable production in the US although you are correct that Russia is probably the largest nitrogen fertilizer exporter in the world.
Well sodium nitrate is a fertilizer and explosive and
Russia makes most of it. I read after sanctions our military would experience shortages because we imported it from Russia.
Obviously Russia did not supply it in 1971.
If they don't ramp up production and use artillery, what are they going to use?
Shovels and micro chips from washing machines.
North Korea needs them. Why give the empire an opening on your Southern border? Maybe they could have them ramp up manufacturing and begin supplying some.
https://grasshoppper.substack.com/p/turkeys-come-home-to-roost
random thoughts and senselessness
A big new tranche of up to $24 billion dollars in new funding for the war is coming up in the US congress. Options have shifted dramatically over the past year. But the people who voted for the first $100 billion can’t just admit that all we did is spend a lot of money we didn’t have in order to keep the war going long enough to kill a few hundred thousand more people, without changing the ultimate outcome. If the Ukrainian army collapses before next November, all of that spending and all of those deaths fall on Joe Biden’s frail head. So the war must go on.
Fascinating to see all the revisionism about US war fighting doctrine. It’s useless in Ukraine because it assumes a massive material superiority aka asymmetric warfare doctrine. We were training the Ukrainians how to spot an insurgent in a crowd. And how to sit back and let the air strikes take care of things, then move in and take prisoners. Now our doctrine is under serious challenge.
Every time Congress throws more money at Ukraine, thr Sunk Cost Fallacy will be used to goad Congress into spending still more.
Congress needs scant goading to help out their "donors".
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_IGU_7alJ80
Exactly... Assange nailed it on 2011. If this war ends the USA will just have to start one someplace else to make up for it. Taiwan maybe.
One thing to realize is that the top-line number for these allocations is misleading. Only a fraction of the dollars actually goes to Ukrainian coffers or to weapons and supplies. There are plenty of government (and NG) vultures picking the bones too. They just have to claim their efforts are helping the "fight for democracy". Plus more and more these monies are going for things years out.
But what do you mean " money we don't have" , just let the presses roll baby roll. 🙃🥳
And, oddly, the administration has refused any attempt to impose any sort of auditing or accountability for where this money that we are sending to the most corrupt government on the planet actually goes. One article claims Zelinski has already pocketed half a billion from the “skim fund” set up specifically for that purpose. But Z has been too greedy and the other corrupt oligarchs are getting upset.
There is nothing odd about an illegitimate, post coup détat Government of the CCP puppet Beijing Joe avoiding auditing or accountability.
Affirmative.There.is.nothing.wrong.only.MAGA.trolls.would.make.such.a.claim.we.hate.them.
Another mountain of a post that I will have to continue reading tomorrow. I do love the chopper pilots and videos. I always have had the utmost respect for those that fly them. Cool story about their supporter.
The cage trucks are interesting, how quickly things are invented on behalf of war.
Fuck Ukraine
Which one - Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov?