At the time of French, UK, US did launch cruise missiles attack on Syria 2019/2020 (most of it were nullified by Russ' AD & EW) under the pretext of Assad Chemical weapon Attack on population, there were looming threat of Nuclear exchange between US-Russia cause that action endanger Russian servicemen in Syria, but I don't exactly remember what Russian did after that, it could be they had more freedom to run campaign against isis where it's not possible before. While US got face-saving they badly need but, I agree that this ZNPP possesses real danger for Russian sides. It could be similar move, but with broader contingency. I hope I say it correctly.
No about ppl seeing the narratives. It is about ppl admit that they are wrong and has been duped. You really think those vaccine boosters folks don’t know about about the harm, but they still tag the official line. Why? They are a bunch of suckers never admitting that they were duped!
I sort of agree with you, but in reality such people are simply the cowards, the weakest of the weak that live amongst, wowsers all, happy to spout and gob off about all manner of things except that which those of us who be dent of our refusing the vaccines, who saw through the shitzen, stood firm, these cretins, the weak, happy to live off of the s
Oils of our fight against such filth… pigs will fly waiting for such to ever admit they got it wrong, instead we must never ever forgive or forget and simply remind them of their weakness whenever the opportunity presents, I know given the many essays and posts written it’s how I confront such inept weakness, their behaviour a disgrace to those of us who stood firm still fight to hold to account those responsible for this unprecedented attack on humanity, never ever resile from such a position of being morally, physically and personally correct, you are entitled and have earned that right, the only way to prevent such ever from recurring is to truly rub their weak noses in it, reminding them of just how irrelevant they’re soft cock attitude in the scheme of things, real life actually is… has truly become, we are entering into a whole new phase in this fight for humanity, our freedom and democracy and nothing but true grit, moral backbone and fibre will sustain anyone through what lies ahead… Kia Kaha from New Zealand… strength through faith
Speaking of "the brave ANZAC," my favorite anti-war song is, "And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda." Although it's about the carnage at Gallipoli, twenty years before I was born, I nearly cry when I hear it. It certainly applies to Ukraine -- and Russia.
BTW, can't believe Youtube even showed this clip up as advertisement. https://youtu.be/2bXn2F58OsM And Zuckerberg now bragging about his Anti-"Twitter". Crazy world we're in.
Definitely right on the first part. But I would say that the only reason he is still there is because they view Harris as even worse. They can't find a frontman for the band. It's like, 'We wanna get rid of Mike Love but the rest of us are no talent fossils too.'
I think Biden is there as the planned fall guy, for all their inane policy. He is now and had been doing everything the would be rulers of the world want. and when the horrible results come, it is easy to scapegoat Biden.
Reasonable but I don't buy it. They want to look competent and 'the adults are in charge' to us and he is incompetently trying to run his little side grifts. Just like with the jab rollout. They intended to come out of that looking like saviours not shysters. The swamp is getting swamped by its own incompetence.
The only thing to see here is that no one is covering for the Bidens anymore. No one really thinks that the White House staff doesn't know what to do with an 8ball or needs to call in outside help to deal with it. No, this is 'You are more of a liability than an asset. It's time to retire.' They have been signalling him since Kabul, that's when his cover started to break, and the messages are pretty unambiguous now.
About half and a year remain before 2024 election, the world waiting for Amerikan Patriots to unite and finally take the matter into their own hands. Come on, don't let millions of guns and billion bullets wasted in shooting range. I don't know, but I hope it happens, we'll see.
Cheering for my country and my family to become killers or be killed themselves makes you an enemy in case you didn't know. I fully understand anyone who hates America for her international misadventures, her immorality, her Pride-the chief of sins, or there are other good reasons. But anyone who wants war and death in my home is not my friend, and whatever you think about yourself you are a warmonger and everything that you claim to hate about America. Or alternatively you are just a dummy running his mouth. I will be charitable and ask you not to speak to me again.
Well then, Jon, better never missed your prayers to God, He seems extremely merciful not sending his Wraths there right away. Cause its imminent, everyone knows what's going to happen to USA at the end... And I, don't want to witness that moment.
Doesn't matter what the people think. Look at the French government calling their own people "vermin." And what about those Dutch farmers we never hear anything about?
Judging from the US and EU stock markets, I take solace that it would mostly not happen. Recall how ppl were selling the futures and mysteriously buying some puts before the plane hit the twin towers. Mkt shouldn't be hanging at this level at 4400 if they're about to unleash this false falg. Those in the know would be selling ahead of time and the mkt should be trading down to 4100 instead of 4400 at the moment.
I'm not .ceratin, last time I read something the UAF had a small infantry force there. I guess they can send guys over in small numbers but no heavy weapons. Not sure what this is supposed to acheive, assuming they are still there and breathing.
I would guess a number of reasons, but one is certain to be to allow time to militarize before NATO enters the fight, just like happened with Germany in WWII. Ramping up production has exposed a lot of particular problems that need solved in the Russian military supply chains that weren't visible at lower volumes of productions. As an example, there are reports of supply shortages of a certain grade of steel for the turrets of retrofitted and new tanks. Not insurmountable or even difficult, but not known either beforehand. All of that needs sorted out if Russia fights a potentially stronger enemy (in men and material).
Because a full-blown fight with NATO is more costly and riskier than picking off NATO equipment and mercs in small numbers when they are bogged down by Ukronazis in the chain of command? Because they don't think that the West is capable of reindustrializing for Act 2 so a slow controlled burn favors them? Not to mention that Western support for the war is disappearing like a fart in the wind. Between tranny commanders and plain old women pilots everytime we crank the engine we lose a jet or drive a sub into the bottom of the ocean.
If you think that I am cheering against the US I am not. I am a patriot and the destruction of the Empire's offensive capabilities will decrease the mischief they can cause without weakening our legitimate power to defend ourselves which has always been patriots defending their home and family and never been about Boeing and Raytheon.
"... patriots defending their home and family" is the dream I've always had for America, but since 1813, no enemy has walked on the "land of the brave and home of the free." I'm so sorry to see what the country has become over the last 40-45 years. Looters, time-servers, and fanatics. What a mess. By the way, I don't see any way for NATO to move against Russia, no matter what production problems the Russian Federation may have. NATO, including the U.S., cannot now produce enough war materiel to fight the Russians more than one week. They've let contracts to expand production -- three years from now -- to less than half what the Russians are currently producing. The generals got rid of the draft, and now they can't meet their manpower requirements, much less expand the military. The Air Force and Navy diverted so much money to their post-retirement plans that we have a shrinking navy and a fifth-generation fighter that is only available 50% of the time -- at best. It's a good thing neither Russia nor China have aggressive plans. We just have to hope (and, maybe, pray) that there are enough realists in the Defense and State departments to stop the planned attack on China in 2025.
Agree completely. The one good thing about this war is that it has exposed how hollow the US military is, completely jnept against a peer level opponent, none of the fancy new garbage working well when it is actually used on the battlefield.
My big hope is that this leads America to become disenchanted with the Merchants of Death, and the high of killing on the other side of the world.
Russia is clearly not fighting the way that the USA was expecting. The question is why? A couple of thoughts.
1. Economy of force operation like Simplicius has said before.
2. To avoid creating a situation that the USA (NATO) would feel justifies going in.
3. To minimize civilian casualties.
4. To look civilized to the rest of the world. (Did you know that the USA dropped a greater mass of explosives on the people of North Vietnam than the mass of those people, about 9-10 pounds of explosives per pound of person.)
Sorry, I should have added that Russia is already defying the USA by acting in its own interest insead of laying down to be a vassal.
And it is winning the war. Sanctions backfired. Ukraine is about half way through expending its 3rd army. And Russia military production is growing while the west burns through its inventory. Russia has no real need to drop the hammer.
The USA (NATO) is going to find a way to go in, regardless. Their excuse is probably going to come after they attack the nuclear plant and blame it on Russia, which would be a lot harder for them to pull off if Russia had pushed the Ukuleles further west, farther away from the Dnieper and the plant.
Russia is going to find out very soon that its leisurely pace was a mistake. NATO/Ukulele is going to attack the nuclear plant and blame it on Russia as a justification for sending in NATO troops to try to freeze the conflict. A frozen conflict will tie up Russian manpower in Ukulele, which will allow NATO to fuck around up north in the Baltic and Arctic, now that Finland has been admitted to NATO, with Sweden soon to follow.
On the contrary, sir, Russia is and has been playing for time. Their best weapon against an enemy that psychopathically lunges for the throats of their children is to show the rest of the world the character of their foes. In doing so, they show their own character as nobler. The more rope the Western elites are given, the more they hang themselves. The more they hang themselves, the more repulsive they become.
The only way to win a World War is to either blow up the other side completely, or starve them. The West starves when no one wants their money, culture or lies. Blowing them up means, ultimately, nukes--which are still to be avoided. Further, you will not get big-arrow movements like the old history books until satellite recon and guidance capabilities are obliterated...
If NATO troops go in, they'll get shot up the same, only at a more serious scale. We'll move one notch (or two) closer to small-scale nuke usage, which is of course seconds from full-scale.
I agree that the neocons in Washington will escalate.
But I disahree about capturing the right (west) bank. The neocons would fabricate some excuse. If not ZNPP, then they'll think of something. Chemical weapons are good these days.
To go in? with what? The troops in Germany Poland and Romania perhaps 30K to 50K strong.
Look, the Russians have now had over a year of actual war engagement experience and have scaled up industrial war material production to war time scale. Unlike the Ukes Nato/US will however have air cover, but that is different than having air superiority. America has always needed overwhelming air superiority when entering into a war.
Thinking that with American air superiority Russia is sure to fall the poles will jump in as well, thats what crazy does so add in another 100 to 150K troops. What will the Scandinavians, Germans, British, Italians, French, Dutch and other European slave states provide.. not much. They do have a memory of the two great powers that invaded Russia with giant armies and only a few remnants came back in sad shape.
My view of that stupidity would be to look for the few miserable stragglers returning from that mission.
100-150k NATO troops going in to occupy western Ukraine, plus US air cover, plus the threat of a direct hot war and possible nuclear exchange if Russia attacks those 100-150k NATO troops, is plenty to freeze Russia in its tracks, thereby freezing the conflict. A frozen conflict does not benefit Russia, IMO.
You gotta be kidding Nato troops in Ukraine? For what purpose? They can't just hang around so they must attack Russia. Now why do you think that they have not done that already. Because they'll get mauled and die bleeding from the claws and teeth of an angry Grizzly Bear just like the Ukrainian army which was much larger but is now much smaller.
Well maybe sacrificing 150K non Ukrainian soldiers they could help solidify the belief that this is a real war against Russia and just to be sure that the casualties are humungous maybe they could postpone the attack until the onset of winter. The Russians will love that.
They are hitting them every day - AFU just keeps shipping more troops with their light boats. And then they are hit again. That's why the area is grey zone
Holy fuck man, literally who cares. Some rats scurry their way into a trap every day, are killed, and even more scurry in to replace them. They are entrenched in the single place along the entire river where a single soldier might survive a shell or two cowering under a huge slab of concrete, they will not succeed in that direction.
So how is this situation any different than if they were across the river? If they mined the approaches then they can't assault along those approaches either. Getting heavy equipment across the river is still a problem. Electronic warfare, counter battery, again it's the same if they were on the other side of the river, but being there actually opens up that precious EW equipment to just being wiped out, that's good for Russia. Why would you waste Iskander for mines? The tactical difficulties are heavily on the Ukranian side to continue holding their little nest. Of course they don't care, and will waste an absurd amount of equipment and lives holding onto this for twitter reasons. It's snake island 2.0. If the fish want to stay in the barrel and make it easy, let them.
The difficult part was establishing the bridgehead.
In the up to now remote chance the frontline to the North in Zaporozhzie gets breached, the bridgehead will be a perfect starting point for a support attack to the side and to the rear, which could stretch thin Russian reserves.
I keep reading about the AFU position on the Antonov bridge being shelled and hit by this or that... hence I have got to conclude that they are still hanging in there.
Mostly I read telegram feeds like rybar, the same ones Simplicius refers to here. Then there is Simplicius' video channel on bitchute, southfront, moon of alabama...
Extreme desperation really dull a man's senses. It seems the Russians know exactly what the Ukrainians will do well in advance. Sure, they will dump some radioactive waste and NATO MSM will go into massive propaganda action. They will rattle in their cages, trying to trick a world that is fully awake and aware of these antics. The Russians will likely stop most if not all the attack. Then what? This is not going to move the needle in any way. Inevitability will rear its pristine, clean shaven head again.
Wish it is so, but it's flabbergasting how many people I've spoken with that actually think Ukraine is winning the war, I kid you not. I don't try to dissuade them, btw, they are just too far gone.
Likewise, not people I know personally because they are switched on but I would say 50% - 60% of comments in local news blogs could have been written by the CIA, Washington Post, CNN, BBC etc and I live in the Pacific Ocean!
ALL media propaganda is 100% anti-Russia and all total lies.
The media's job in this war has been awful. I know people who fought in Vietnam who said they've never seen lying like this before, even in Vietnam. And the endless false flags? Crazy. That's new. US are false flag aider and abettor.
If Russia had taken off the gloves and smashed Ukulele sooner, the western media wouldn’t have any grist for their propaganda mill to brainwash people that Ukulele is winning.
What's better: the western media lying that Ukulele is "winning" as an excuse to send more arms that either get destroyed or sold on the black market, as well as more money to be laundered, or them screaming "five times as loud about Russian war crimes," as if they're not already screaming that loud about "Russian war crimes?"
Lots of them also believe that it’s Russia that is going to blow up the nuke power plant and they want Biden to send paratroopers into it to protect it. But then they also believe that America’s Air Force can clear the skies of Russian jets.
Daily Kos came during the anti war protests and they swear that they are still anti war, but they want Ukraine to kill every 'orc' that is squatting in Ukraine. They love to write about how Ukraine is blowing up Russian targets and have never once said anything about Ukraine’s genocide in the Donbas or how it was Obama’s brutal coup that brought the Ukraine Nazis into power. As they are today I bet they would believe that Saddam had WMDs. The country has been lied into every war it’s started, but this time they are being given the truth…because of course Biden’s president.
Daily Kos is literally cancer. The most fanatical Nazi lovers in the US are liberal Democrats. I don't see any support for Russia on the Left. The only supporters are Hard Left types like Communists and anti-imperialist Leftists. Liberals, "progressives" (Daily Kos!), social democrats (Jacobin) "a pox on both of them," antifa (presently supporting the Nazis), and even a lot of the Western Hard Left "We oppose US and Russian imperialism." Russian imperialism? Reminds of Twats I mean Trots going neutral in WW2. Scum of the Earth.
That is ground zero for the left wing of the Democratic Party. THIS is what liberal Democrats are really like! I always wondered why Communists hated liberals so much, but now I get it. I even get why they hated social democrats because the Euro ones are just as bad.
Truth is liberal Democrats have been horrific on US foreign policy forever. They've always been reactionary to fascist on foreign policy, supporting fascists, Nazis, death squads, Islamist headchoppers, and every rightwing dictatorship or coup that came down the pike. This is why people call them shitlibs. Of course the Republicans are no good either or are even worse. The bipartisan foreign policy consensus is a toxin.
You will almost never meet an American who opposes US foreign policy. I was raised by liberals and a liberal Republican later turned Democrat, and they never said one word against US foreign policy. My brothers are like that too, and one is a diehard liberal. I think Americans believe that opposing US foreign policy means you are an America-hater, and 70-80% of Americans are patriotard fanatics. It's like walking out in front of a crowd and burning a flag. You're almost asking to get hit.
I respect rightwingers, even these MAGA fascists, as the Republican Party is now a true fascist party. At least they walk the walk and talk the talk. I hate liberals because there's nothing liberal or Left about them!
Everyone in the West is like that. I tell them Russian casualties are 35,000 and Ukrainian casualties are 300,000 and they laugh at me. The people who support Ukraine - literally every single thing they believe about this war is a flat out lie. Every single fact about this war is "Russian disinformation."
We are going to get to the point where even our damned history books are going to be nothing but one lie after another. Already much of recent world history on Wikipedia is an endless jumble of lies. It's more like "World History According to the CIA." Historians are supposed to be honest. History is a search for the truth. Is that profession going to be doomed too?
False flags are often telegraphed ahead of time due to the worldwide reach and total control of the media. Remember Syria? "Syria's getting ready to do a chemical attack!" That always meant, "False flag coming soon!"
Keep on keepin' on, would be my guess. Slow and steady wins the race, with a consistent ramp-up, seems to be the Russian plan of action - both now and historically.
What can they do? Maybe they can shoot a Tochka-U down, but that's not guaranteed. If the contamination is delivered in artillery shells it's much harder to stop.
thanks simplicius... i am not sure the false flag is going to pan out.. i kind of doubt it.. not much has panned out for the neo nazis who run and support ukraine at this point.. eventually they are going to run out of scare tactics and their nato friends are going to have to walk away from this mess they have created for themselves and everyone else..
They'll never walk away. No one is going to make them adhere to Article 5, they'll just blow through it one way or another after they've built the narrative that they are left without any choice (LOL).
they walked away from syria - for the most part... of course ukraine is not syria, but if you followed the false flags in syria, a similar pattern eventually stopped.. we'll see how it pans out here... i am still doubtful of this scenario, but realize why it is being made..
The nuclear threat has come and gone, but the SMO show continues to ratchet things up. No great climax comes without plenty of buildup, and so we wait to see how things pan out.
While in most cases it is recommended to provide closure to storylines, the tenterhooks are there to tide us over while the props and special effects department do their work.
As per windy.com It's mainly NE or N winds on Wed/Thu (but then splitting N/S) and then virtually all N/NW till Monday - meaning Wed/Thu perhaps Romania maybe slightly affected or Belaurs (depending on particular H/L pressure areas and changing winds) and then Fri-Mon BlackSea/perhaps Turkiye... Turkyie is quite sovereign and not easily coerced by any side. Maybe Black Sea contamination may be MSM spinned as ecological catastrophe.
I've said this here before and been attacked, but I'm going to say it again: Russia should've pushed the Ukuleles much further west, as far away from the nuclear plant as possible. This way, the Ukus would have to act much more conspicuously, with much larger, longer-range missiles, to hit it.
It's another result of Russia going too slowly; the Ukuleles are still way too close to the nuclear plant and in a position to do something sneaky that they can blame on the Russians.
The longer Russia takes, the more time and opportunity they've given NATO/US/Ukulele to cause havoc with small strikes that do big damage, such as the dam, as well as give them grist for their propaganda mills. This is regardless of how many Ukulele soldiers and NATO equipment the Russians have taken out - I don't want to hear "the Russians are grinding them down!" argument anymore.
Here's my view, very brief but a bit long for an Internet comment. In short, Russia very much does not want to occupy hostile Ukr territory. The USA is provoking them into doing this, but it isn't working.
The USA provokes by using Ukr for missile launches against Russia. But if Russia responds by taking territory, then they'll just use longer range missiles. The ideal result for the USA would be the complete occupation of Ukr.
Then Russia should've taken the territory and forced them to use longer range missiles. It's actually better because longer range missiles are more conspicuous and easier to track and/or shoot down. It would be easier for Russia to prove with 100% certainty that NATO/Ukulele shot the missile(s).
There is still a lot of Russia-friendly territory west of the Dnieper that Russia could occupy with very few problems. They should be occupying it right now.
I can't believe that the Russian general Staff haven't offered you an officer's commission Chucky; it would allow your erudite planning abilities to shine.
Obviously, they offered you and your Clausewitzian military genius a commission and you accepted, because they’re fucking this up and you think it’s just fine.
"Russia should have conquered Japan in the first week, and then used Japan's cards to sweep through India and weaken Britain, before securing Oceania...".
What if this war stint is a controlled operation on both sides to rid Ukraine of most of the population. It's a miss mash of different people anyway from Poland and the Baltic states Tartars Kossacks and others as far away as Mongolia.
In a serious possibility of war the protagonists do not engage in talk of terror like it is done here, especially from the Ukrainian media sources. War is serious business one does not need to terrorize the population with what if horrors like bombing a Nuclear reactor. The folks mostly terrorized by this are those near the reactor and are the ones getting the hell out of there.
The way the politicians and military bosses along with Nato are behaving I do not see the fear one should see in their faces and hear in their voices.
A Nation in peril of war does not allow it's citizens to mass immigrate away from it in the time of its greatest danger.
This has been in the back of mind since this whole show started. Looks like the plan is to feed Ukrainian men into the meat grinder, have the women and children flee abroad where they can start new lives, then once the dust has settled, allow those with multiple citizenships to return and pick over the spoils.
Yes, like the fake Pandemic and the deadly vaxx, I smell a large Rat in the Kitchen. We are once more treated to a grand opera of deceit with the whole world being the Stage. I wrote about this several months ago but emotionally I couldn't let go of Putin and Russia. I wanted so badly for this to be the miss step that would finally see the end of this cabal of evil.
It's absurd in the extreme to believe that Ukrainian soldiers and to a much lesser degree civilians are being killed for a small amount of real estate that is ethnically Russian. All you hear about is Russian aggression against Ukraine. Everything The Ukraine Government does pretty well means harm to their own people, thats because Ukraine is run from the top down by foreigners not real Ukrainians. If it was truly a case of fighting for the survival of the country then why the refusal to negotiate all along. There is no national spirit or cohesion there. Ukraine has been a vassal of the west since the late 90s. Russia in my opinion has no desire to conquer or control the Ukraine beyond insisting on it being a neutral state. It's not worth bleeding and dying over as the Russians aptly demonstrate by letting the Ukrainian army impale itself on their three ring circus line of defence.
The Khazars figure large in Ukraine ( new Khazaria ) but that is a subject requiring study of its own.
You underestimate how unpopular this war was when it started among the Russian population. It's a civil war. A lot of people had friends and family on both sides. A lot of people would have preferred to ostrich and pretend NATO and the Zionist neocons didn't have plans on the Russian heartland. Putin isn't a dictator - he holds power by popular support.
I share this sentiment, that Russia ought to use overwhelming force and subdue Ukraine once and for all now. I know most posters here are against this line of thought. Since the start of the SMO/NotWar, we've been hearing that Russia wants to destroy Ukie army and ability to fight, so the slow grind approach favours them. That was fine for the initial period, and it has worked well, Ukies having lost 3 armies already. However, there's one aspect that planners need to consider: war is very unpredictable; the longer the conflict, the more uncertainty of future events. For eg, NATO could get its act together, or come up with some new way of weakening Russia; Putin could die; etc. Sure this is unlikely, but not impossible. i.e. longer time = more uncertainty. From this angle alone, it would seem now is good time to disable Ukraine, bring it to its knees, completely destroy it's ability to wage war. For example: Russia has the means to destroy all of Ukraine's coal / hydro power plants - do it now. Disable the nuclear power plants. Disable all airports and all railway lines. Do all this NOW. Basically make Ukraine unable to operate as a state. Then, go in and replace the Ukie nazi govt with a sympathetic one, accept a Ukie surrender on Russia's terms and legalise / formalise the victory. Technically do not occupy all of Ukraine, only take the Russian parts, and leave the rump as a Russian vassal / protectorate. Russia's stated objective from the start of the SMO has been to disarm Ukraine, de-nazify, and ensure Ukraine remains neutral. Knocking off the Ukie state now achieves all those objectives. If NATO wants to fight then, they have to take the first step and we know they will not. The other, wider Russian political objective, viz. to encourage the rise of a multi-polar world against NATO/US hegemony, is already well on track and irreversible now.
Russia's current way of fighting has already been explained many times, and to some people the reasons make less sense with each passing day. It looks like this is due to Putin's risk-averse, legalistic, genuinely peaceful temperament. For example, listening to Medvedev or Patrushko's statements, we know that if they were in charge Ukraine would have been obliterated by now. If there are other strategic reasons why Russia might be pursuing the slowly, slowly approach, lets discuss them.
Let's agree we are all armchair generals here, including our host Simplicius, and also those that don't agree with this line of thought and support the slowly slowly approach. So please lets have a civil discussion and spare us the ad hominem attacks.
The only strategic justification for Russia's current methods may be that Russia wants to also destroy NATO and particularly the Anglo-US hegemon. The Anglo world has historically been anti-Slavic, anti-Russia for nearly a thousand years, without success. They keep trying, though. Perhaps Putin wants to ensure that they are so weakened this time that they will not have the ability to do anything to Russia for the next few 100s years.
It seems to me the true goal is to deprive the Russians of the valuable power produced by the plant. This shows that the Ukrs have given up on ever retaking the place. It implies they might also destroy oil refineries and so forth.
on manufacturing stinger manpads more than 20 years ‘out of production’. Some observations:
that would be 4 or 5 generations of chip set!
why not manufacture one of the past 3 generation stinger?
production difficulties: where buy chips? where are the fabrication machines, tools, jigs, and process sheets, where are skilled techs, and where are testers to assure quality?
I think stinger is not useful in any order of battle, nato or other
One of the issues with allowing conflicts to last a long time are "board clearing" moves or reshuffling the deck midgame. It's pretty clear that the AFU doesn't have a winning hand so the plan is to stall the game until NATO can force a reshuffle of the cards and hope for a better hand. This spy thriller novel action at the power plant is an attempt at that. I'd be shocked if Russia hasn't already taken steps or has a response waiting. As for a Russian offensive, Kharkov and Sumy make sense as from a Russia VS NATO perspective pushing the Ukraine border away from Moscow would be priority 1 with a second priority being Denying NATO access to the black sea. Which would mean taking Odessa.
There a small, finite number of shuffles (and they're declining) available than the 8*10 to the 67th from a card deck. I'd bet even money Putin, et. al. have sorted many out and developed responses.
For as long as I've followed Putin's geopolitics, he's always had a rope a dope style. He waits for NATO/US to make a mistake and then swiftly counters. Real combat is a little more volatile but I also expect a response ready if there is an attempt at the power plant.
Military aged men in the propaganda photos!! I smell a White Helmet Production courtesy of MI-6. I imagine a great density of AD is in proximity to ZNPP. And if Zelensky/CIA/MI-6 did such a thing, how safe would the NATO meeting in Vilnius be? Russia has said it will respond to any such nuclear terrorism decisively. Russia recently launched more ISR type satellites and would have as many "eyes" open as it can. The RoW will know who to believe. Plus, NATO's already at war with Russia, so NATO better understand what it might get as a result.
Wagner was Nationalized, and many Russians have applauded that move. I recently wrote about Natural Monopolies, National Security being one that clearly isn't in NATO and most other nations. Even Russia isn't 100% in that regard. IMO, ALL natural monopolies ought to be Public Utilities, and that includes almost everything related to what human society needs to operate. Once upon a time in human history, that's the way it was. One of the reasons the world's so fucked-up is due to that mode of social organization being usurped. But that's a subject for me to write about once I get my Substack organized. It will be named Karlof1"s Geopolitical Gymnasium and is very unlikely to discuss Russia's SMO like Simplicius does. It'll deal with Big Picture issues as the Multipolar World comes into focus.
I look forward to your substack - please inform via this substack if S is kind enough to allow such -
What a natural monopoly is might require definition - National Security ditto, for if it's a claim to a state monopoly of violence as per the usual ynak and 'west' ruling class fantasy there may be a question of category to sort out
Thanks for your feedback. Yes, definitions are required. Indeed, the entire issue of what IMO an ideal political-economy ought to be is a rather long essay. I've written about bits and pieces at my VK and have one short essay and additional comment pinned at the top so it can be easily found and read. Today I posted Xi Jinping's SCO speech and linked to this week's conversation between Alastair Crooke and Judge Napolitano, the first half of which IMO is an absolute must watch.
Thanks for your reply and for all your work in posting and translating original docs - something otherwise largely neglected, much needed glimpses of life and thought inside the other countries, of which more is required
I'm in Africa and all my attempts to sign up to VK have failed - that's one reason I was pleased you announced your own substack - the bits and pieces you put on MoA and here and at Martyanov's are very interesting but lack the context and continuity required by/for the reformulating of definitions and putting up a comprehensive pôint of view
At the time of French, UK, US did launch cruise missiles attack on Syria 2019/2020 (most of it were nullified by Russ' AD & EW) under the pretext of Assad Chemical weapon Attack on population, there were looming threat of Nuclear exchange between US-Russia cause that action endanger Russian servicemen in Syria, but I don't exactly remember what Russian did after that, it could be they had more freedom to run campaign against isis where it's not possible before. While US got face-saving they badly need but, I agree that this ZNPP possesses real danger for Russian sides. It could be similar move, but with broader contingency. I hope I say it correctly.
Psychopaths are pushing for nuclear war. Pray that they fail and people see through the false narrative.
No about ppl seeing the narratives. It is about ppl admit that they are wrong and has been duped. You really think those vaccine boosters folks don’t know about about the harm, but they still tag the official line. Why? They are a bunch of suckers never admitting that they were duped!
I sort of agree with you, but in reality such people are simply the cowards, the weakest of the weak that live amongst, wowsers all, happy to spout and gob off about all manner of things except that which those of us who be dent of our refusing the vaccines, who saw through the shitzen, stood firm, these cretins, the weak, happy to live off of the s
Oils of our fight against such filth… pigs will fly waiting for such to ever admit they got it wrong, instead we must never ever forgive or forget and simply remind them of their weakness whenever the opportunity presents, I know given the many essays and posts written it’s how I confront such inept weakness, their behaviour a disgrace to those of us who stood firm still fight to hold to account those responsible for this unprecedented attack on humanity, never ever resile from such a position of being morally, physically and personally correct, you are entitled and have earned that right, the only way to prevent such ever from recurring is to truly rub their weak noses in it, reminding them of just how irrelevant they’re soft cock attitude in the scheme of things, real life actually is… has truly become, we are entering into a whole new phase in this fight for humanity, our freedom and democracy and nothing but true grit, moral backbone and fibre will sustain anyone through what lies ahead… Kia Kaha from New Zealand… strength through faith
Well said mate. The myth of the brave ANZAC has been exposed.
Speaking of "the brave ANZAC," my favorite anti-war song is, "And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda." Although it's about the carnage at Gallipoli, twenty years before I was born, I nearly cry when I hear it. It certainly applies to Ukraine -- and Russia.
BTW, can't believe Youtube even showed this clip up as advertisement. https://youtu.be/2bXn2F58OsM And Zuckerberg now bragging about his Anti-"Twitter". Crazy world we're in.
psychopaths, interesting, should be using the term "US government" instead.
Well the folks running things are rather wide woke, the SS even found cocaine in the Whitehouse
......... ...... ..... ... .. . Hunter looks up, "What coacaine"
SS report, "evidence mysteriousely disappears."
nice, another Deep-State move to weaken already weak Biden administration, then replace him with Kemala Hairys. Of course don't take it seriously...
Definitely right on the first part. But I would say that the only reason he is still there is because they view Harris as even worse. They can't find a frontman for the band. It's like, 'We wanna get rid of Mike Love but the rest of us are no talent fossils too.'
I think Biden is there as the planned fall guy, for all their inane policy. He is now and had been doing everything the would be rulers of the world want. and when the horrible results come, it is easy to scapegoat Biden.
Reasonable but I don't buy it. They want to look competent and 'the adults are in charge' to us and he is incompetently trying to run his little side grifts. Just like with the jab rollout. They intended to come out of that looking like saviours not shysters. The swamp is getting swamped by its own incompetence.
The only thing to see here is that no one is covering for the Bidens anymore. No one really thinks that the White House staff doesn't know what to do with an 8ball or needs to call in outside help to deal with it. No, this is 'You are more of a liability than an asset. It's time to retire.' They have been signalling him since Kabul, that's when his cover started to break, and the messages are pretty unambiguous now.
About half and a year remain before 2024 election, the world waiting for Amerikan Patriots to unite and finally take the matter into their own hands. Come on, don't let millions of guns and billion bullets wasted in shooting range. I don't know, but I hope it happens, we'll see.
Cheering for my country and my family to become killers or be killed themselves makes you an enemy in case you didn't know. I fully understand anyone who hates America for her international misadventures, her immorality, her Pride-the chief of sins, or there are other good reasons. But anyone who wants war and death in my home is not my friend, and whatever you think about yourself you are a warmonger and everything that you claim to hate about America. Or alternatively you are just a dummy running his mouth. I will be charitable and ask you not to speak to me again.
Well then, Jon, better never missed your prayers to God, He seems extremely merciful not sending his Wraths there right away. Cause its imminent, everyone knows what's going to happen to USA at the end... And I, don't want to witness that moment.
Why and how should praying be of any help here?
Praying is essentially to tell the Allknowing what one thinks is important. What a hybris!
As if any human being could ever know the Devine plan and could make the Omnipotent do change it to one's liking. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1g8WCA7mJk
So are you saying you know what the divine plan is? Why aren't you teaching us?
Are you saying that prayer is no use?
It seems to me you don't know what you are talking about.
"So are you saying you know what the divine plan is?"
Where did I say that?
In Your wildest dreams? ;-)
Doesn't matter what the people think. Look at the French government calling their own people "vermin." And what about those Dutch farmers we never hear anything about?
Judging from the US and EU stock markets, I take solace that it would mostly not happen. Recall how ppl were selling the futures and mysteriously buying some puts before the plane hit the twin towers. Mkt shouldn't be hanging at this level at 4400 if they're about to unleash this false falg. Those in the know would be selling ahead of time and the mkt should be trading down to 4100 instead of 4400 at the moment.
Skimmed through the post. No mention AFU are still occupying that position at the left side of the Antonov bridge, even after the missile strike.
It really is incredible to me that Russia is still slap-fighting them. They should've dropped the damn sledgehammer already.
Does an Iskander missile qualify as sledgehammer? That's what these Ukrainians got on the top of their heads a few days ago
Well, if they took one to the dome a few days ago but are still there, Russia should've lit them up with a few more.
Iskanders are expensive lol
I heard rhet were cleared out days ago by an assault team.
Iskander followed by an assault team = no more Ukies.
I'm not .ceratin, last time I read something the UAF had a small infantry force there. I guess they can send guys over in small numbers but no heavy weapons. Not sure what this is supposed to acheive, assuming they are still there and breathing.
It’s why Rolo and others call it the not war. Russia has left the door open for this and more. The question is why
I would guess a number of reasons, but one is certain to be to allow time to militarize before NATO enters the fight, just like happened with Germany in WWII. Ramping up production has exposed a lot of particular problems that need solved in the Russian military supply chains that weren't visible at lower volumes of productions. As an example, there are reports of supply shortages of a certain grade of steel for the turrets of retrofitted and new tanks. Not insurmountable or even difficult, but not known either beforehand. All of that needs sorted out if Russia fights a potentially stronger enemy (in men and material).
That is a very good point.
Because a full-blown fight with NATO is more costly and riskier than picking off NATO equipment and mercs in small numbers when they are bogged down by Ukronazis in the chain of command? Because they don't think that the West is capable of reindustrializing for Act 2 so a slow controlled burn favors them? Not to mention that Western support for the war is disappearing like a fart in the wind. Between tranny commanders and plain old women pilots everytime we crank the engine we lose a jet or drive a sub into the bottom of the ocean.
If you think that I am cheering against the US I am not. I am a patriot and the destruction of the Empire's offensive capabilities will decrease the mischief they can cause without weakening our legitimate power to defend ourselves which has always been patriots defending their home and family and never been about Boeing and Raytheon.
"... patriots defending their home and family" is the dream I've always had for America, but since 1813, no enemy has walked on the "land of the brave and home of the free." I'm so sorry to see what the country has become over the last 40-45 years. Looters, time-servers, and fanatics. What a mess. By the way, I don't see any way for NATO to move against Russia, no matter what production problems the Russian Federation may have. NATO, including the U.S., cannot now produce enough war materiel to fight the Russians more than one week. They've let contracts to expand production -- three years from now -- to less than half what the Russians are currently producing. The generals got rid of the draft, and now they can't meet their manpower requirements, much less expand the military. The Air Force and Navy diverted so much money to their post-retirement plans that we have a shrinking navy and a fifth-generation fighter that is only available 50% of the time -- at best. It's a good thing neither Russia nor China have aggressive plans. We just have to hope (and, maybe, pray) that there are enough realists in the Defense and State departments to stop the planned attack on China in 2025.
Agree completely. The one good thing about this war is that it has exposed how hollow the US military is, completely jnept against a peer level opponent, none of the fancy new garbage working well when it is actually used on the battlefield.
My big hope is that this leads America to become disenchanted with the Merchants of Death, and the high of killing on the other side of the world.
Russia is clearly not fighting the way that the USA was expecting. The question is why? A couple of thoughts.
1. Economy of force operation like Simplicius has said before.
2. To avoid creating a situation that the USA (NATO) would feel justifies going in.
3. To minimize civilian casualties.
4. To look civilized to the rest of the world. (Did you know that the USA dropped a greater mass of explosives on the people of North Vietnam than the mass of those people, about 9-10 pounds of explosives per pound of person.)
Sorry, I should have added that Russia is already defying the USA by acting in its own interest insead of laying down to be a vassal.
And it is winning the war. Sanctions backfired. Ukraine is about half way through expending its 3rd army. And Russia military production is growing while the west burns through its inventory. Russia has no real need to drop the hammer.
The USA (NATO) is going to find a way to go in, regardless. Their excuse is probably going to come after they attack the nuclear plant and blame it on Russia, which would be a lot harder for them to pull off if Russia had pushed the Ukuleles further west, farther away from the Dnieper and the plant.
Russia is going to find out very soon that its leisurely pace was a mistake. NATO/Ukulele is going to attack the nuclear plant and blame it on Russia as a justification for sending in NATO troops to try to freeze the conflict. A frozen conflict will tie up Russian manpower in Ukulele, which will allow NATO to fuck around up north in the Baltic and Arctic, now that Finland has been admitted to NATO, with Sweden soon to follow.
They went too slowly, man.
On the contrary, sir, Russia is and has been playing for time. Their best weapon against an enemy that psychopathically lunges for the throats of their children is to show the rest of the world the character of their foes. In doing so, they show their own character as nobler. The more rope the Western elites are given, the more they hang themselves. The more they hang themselves, the more repulsive they become.
The only way to win a World War is to either blow up the other side completely, or starve them. The West starves when no one wants their money, culture or lies. Blowing them up means, ultimately, nukes--which are still to be avoided. Further, you will not get big-arrow movements like the old history books until satellite recon and guidance capabilities are obliterated...
If NATO troops go in, they'll get shot up the same, only at a more serious scale. We'll move one notch (or two) closer to small-scale nuke usage, which is of course seconds from full-scale.
OK, whatever you say.
The right way is never wrong
I agree that the neocons in Washington will escalate.
But I disahree about capturing the right (west) bank. The neocons would fabricate some excuse. If not ZNPP, then they'll think of something. Chemical weapons are good these days.
Chucky
To go in? with what? The troops in Germany Poland and Romania perhaps 30K to 50K strong.
Look, the Russians have now had over a year of actual war engagement experience and have scaled up industrial war material production to war time scale. Unlike the Ukes Nato/US will however have air cover, but that is different than having air superiority. America has always needed overwhelming air superiority when entering into a war.
Thinking that with American air superiority Russia is sure to fall the poles will jump in as well, thats what crazy does so add in another 100 to 150K troops. What will the Scandinavians, Germans, British, Italians, French, Dutch and other European slave states provide.. not much. They do have a memory of the two great powers that invaded Russia with giant armies and only a few remnants came back in sad shape.
My view of that stupidity would be to look for the few miserable stragglers returning from that mission.
100-150k NATO troops going in to occupy western Ukraine, plus US air cover, plus the threat of a direct hot war and possible nuclear exchange if Russia attacks those 100-150k NATO troops, is plenty to freeze Russia in its tracks, thereby freezing the conflict. A frozen conflict does not benefit Russia, IMO.
Chucky
You gotta be kidding Nato troops in Ukraine? For what purpose? They can't just hang around so they must attack Russia. Now why do you think that they have not done that already. Because they'll get mauled and die bleeding from the claws and teeth of an angry Grizzly Bear just like the Ukrainian army which was much larger but is now much smaller.
Well maybe sacrificing 150K non Ukrainian soldiers they could help solidify the belief that this is a real war against Russia and just to be sure that the casualties are humungous maybe they could postpone the attack until the onset of winter. The Russians will love that.
WBJ.
All the above.
They are hitting them every day - AFU just keeps shipping more troops with their light boats. And then they are hit again. That's why the area is grey zone
Concern troll.
Retard.
Blocked. Doomer.
Just saw a video showing FPV drones attacking AFU speed boats trying to escape from the left side
Holy fuck man, literally who cares. Some rats scurry their way into a trap every day, are killed, and even more scurry in to replace them. They are entrenched in the single place along the entire river where a single soldier might survive a shell or two cowering under a huge slab of concrete, they will not succeed in that direction.
It is not so easy: on the other bank of the river, the AFU has
- artillery
- electronic warfare units
They have created a minefield at the approaches to their bridgehead, by shooting mines with artillery (remote mining).
So Russians cannot directly attack with infantry.
Use their own artillery? Counter-artillery fire
Use drones to discover/suicide-bomb counter-artillery pieces? Electronic warfare units disable this
Aviation? tried before, imprecise without accurate target location.
That's why I found this an interesting conundrum, exemplifying the tactical difficulties of the current state of the art of this war.
Theoretically the Iskander should have taken care of the mines already, but I lack information about the latest developments
So how is this situation any different than if they were across the river? If they mined the approaches then they can't assault along those approaches either. Getting heavy equipment across the river is still a problem. Electronic warfare, counter battery, again it's the same if they were on the other side of the river, but being there actually opens up that precious EW equipment to just being wiped out, that's good for Russia. Why would you waste Iskander for mines? The tactical difficulties are heavily on the Ukranian side to continue holding their little nest. Of course they don't care, and will waste an absurd amount of equipment and lives holding onto this for twitter reasons. It's snake island 2.0. If the fish want to stay in the barrel and make it easy, let them.
The difficult part was establishing the bridgehead.
In the up to now remote chance the frontline to the North in Zaporozhzie gets breached, the bridgehead will be a perfect starting point for a support attack to the side and to the rear, which could stretch thin Russian reserves.
Where are you getting your information from?
I keep reading about the AFU position on the Antonov bridge being shelled and hit by this or that... hence I have got to conclude that they are still hanging in there.
Mostly I read telegram feeds like rybar, the same ones Simplicius refers to here. Then there is Simplicius' video channel on bitchute, southfront, moon of alabama...
Extreme desperation really dull a man's senses. It seems the Russians know exactly what the Ukrainians will do well in advance. Sure, they will dump some radioactive waste and NATO MSM will go into massive propaganda action. They will rattle in their cages, trying to trick a world that is fully awake and aware of these antics. The Russians will likely stop most if not all the attack. Then what? This is not going to move the needle in any way. Inevitability will rear its pristine, clean shaven head again.
Wish it is so, but it's flabbergasting how many people I've spoken with that actually think Ukraine is winning the war, I kid you not. I don't try to dissuade them, btw, they are just too far gone.
Massive brainwashing. 50% of people in west no longer capable or interested in critical thinking. They are all in for a very rude awakening.
It's simply incredible the nonsense and crazy BS that most Americans literally believe is true.
Yep, dumbed down, fed garbage food, poisoned by Big Pharma, kept in the dark by MSM and spoon fed manure by their government.
Likewise, not people I know personally because they are switched on but I would say 50% - 60% of comments in local news blogs could have been written by the CIA, Washington Post, CNN, BBC etc and I live in the Pacific Ocean!
ALL media propaganda is 100% anti-Russia and all total lies.
The media's job in this war has been awful. I know people who fought in Vietnam who said they've never seen lying like this before, even in Vietnam. And the endless false flags? Crazy. That's new. US are false flag aider and abettor.
If Russia had taken off the gloves and smashed Ukulele sooner, the western media wouldn’t have any grist for their propaganda mill to brainwash people that Ukulele is winning.
Nope they would have been screaming five times as loud about Russian war crimes and Westerners would hate Russia twice as much as they do now.
So what?
What's better: the western media lying that Ukulele is "winning" as an excuse to send more arms that either get destroyed or sold on the black market, as well as more money to be laundered, or them screaming "five times as loud about Russian war crimes," as if they're not already screaming that loud about "Russian war crimes?"
Get your testosterone levels checked.
Pussy.
Lots of them also believe that it’s Russia that is going to blow up the nuke power plant and they want Biden to send paratroopers into it to protect it. But then they also believe that America’s Air Force can clear the skies of Russian jets.
Daily Kos came during the anti war protests and they swear that they are still anti war, but they want Ukraine to kill every 'orc' that is squatting in Ukraine. They love to write about how Ukraine is blowing up Russian targets and have never once said anything about Ukraine’s genocide in the Donbas or how it was Obama’s brutal coup that brought the Ukraine Nazis into power. As they are today I bet they would believe that Saddam had WMDs. The country has been lied into every war it’s started, but this time they are being given the truth…because of course Biden’s president.
Daily Kos is literally cancer. The most fanatical Nazi lovers in the US are liberal Democrats. I don't see any support for Russia on the Left. The only supporters are Hard Left types like Communists and anti-imperialist Leftists. Liberals, "progressives" (Daily Kos!), social democrats (Jacobin) "a pox on both of them," antifa (presently supporting the Nazis), and even a lot of the Western Hard Left "We oppose US and Russian imperialism." Russian imperialism? Reminds of Twats I mean Trots going neutral in WW2. Scum of the Earth.
That is ground zero for the left wing of the Democratic Party. THIS is what liberal Democrats are really like! I always wondered why Communists hated liberals so much, but now I get it. I even get why they hated social democrats because the Euro ones are just as bad.
Truth is liberal Democrats have been horrific on US foreign policy forever. They've always been reactionary to fascist on foreign policy, supporting fascists, Nazis, death squads, Islamist headchoppers, and every rightwing dictatorship or coup that came down the pike. This is why people call them shitlibs. Of course the Republicans are no good either or are even worse. The bipartisan foreign policy consensus is a toxin.
You will almost never meet an American who opposes US foreign policy. I was raised by liberals and a liberal Republican later turned Democrat, and they never said one word against US foreign policy. My brothers are like that too, and one is a diehard liberal. I think Americans believe that opposing US foreign policy means you are an America-hater, and 70-80% of Americans are patriotard fanatics. It's like walking out in front of a crowd and burning a flag. You're almost asking to get hit.
I respect rightwingers, even these MAGA fascists, as the Republican Party is now a true fascist party. At least they walk the walk and talk the talk. I hate liberals because there's nothing liberal or Left about them!
Everyone in the West is like that. I tell them Russian casualties are 35,000 and Ukrainian casualties are 300,000 and they laugh at me. The people who support Ukraine - literally every single thing they believe about this war is a flat out lie. Every single fact about this war is "Russian disinformation."
We are going to get to the point where even our damned history books are going to be nothing but one lie after another. Already much of recent world history on Wikipedia is an endless jumble of lies. It's more like "World History According to the CIA." Historians are supposed to be honest. History is a search for the truth. Is that profession going to be doomed too?
Of course Ukraine is planning a false flag at ZNPP.
The question is - what does Russia propose to do about it?
Well, it's rather difficult to believe much can be made of it if Russian troops still occupy the plant.
Invite the IAEA in again? Didn't stop Ukrops attacking last time but did show who the danger was.
I could hear the Scottish voice of Sean Connery on that last line. :)
Unlike Ukraine, Russia doesn't telegraph its plans.
False flags are often telegraphed ahead of time due to the worldwide reach and total control of the media. Remember Syria? "Syria's getting ready to do a chemical attack!" That always meant, "False flag coming soon!"
I'm not asking what Russia says it will do but what Russia can do.
Keep on keepin' on, would be my guess. Slow and steady wins the race, with a consistent ramp-up, seems to be the Russian plan of action - both now and historically.
I agree Feral. Is it likely Russia has no plan to derail the ZNPP plan?
Perhaps a strong offensive into Kharkov? May not derail the ZNPP plan but it certainly could overshadow it.
What can they do? Maybe they can shoot a Tochka-U down, but that's not guaranteed. If the contamination is delivered in artillery shells it's much harder to stop.
That won't contaminate much. Even hitting those waste bins won't do much. It will contaminate that city of Enordordar and that's it.
thanks simplicius... i am not sure the false flag is going to pan out.. i kind of doubt it.. not much has panned out for the neo nazis who run and support ukraine at this point.. eventually they are going to run out of scare tactics and their nato friends are going to have to walk away from this mess they have created for themselves and everyone else..
They'll never walk away. No one is going to make them adhere to Article 5, they'll just blow through it one way or another after they've built the narrative that they are left without any choice (LOL).
they walked away from syria - for the most part... of course ukraine is not syria, but if you followed the false flags in syria, a similar pattern eventually stopped.. we'll see how it pans out here... i am still doubtful of this scenario, but realize why it is being made..
The nuclear threat has come and gone, but the SMO show continues to ratchet things up. No great climax comes without plenty of buildup, and so we wait to see how things pan out.
While in most cases it is recommended to provide closure to storylines, the tenterhooks are there to tide us over while the props and special effects department do their work.
Flowers. How remarkably civilized.
And he didn’t sniff her hair or try to feel her up!
Heh…that was my first thought too. I wonder how many millions are thinking this same thing?
And he showed her the big board!
(of analog telephone switches...)
The ZNPP wind forecast changes from blowing west until Friday to blowing south on Saturday.
Just putting that out there...
As per windy.com It's mainly NE or N winds on Wed/Thu (but then splitting N/S) and then virtually all N/NW till Monday - meaning Wed/Thu perhaps Romania maybe slightly affected or Belaurs (depending on particular H/L pressure areas and changing winds) and then Fri-Mon BlackSea/perhaps Turkiye... Turkyie is quite sovereign and not easily coerced by any side. Maybe Black Sea contamination may be MSM spinned as ecological catastrophe.
I've said this here before and been attacked, but I'm going to say it again: Russia should've pushed the Ukuleles much further west, as far away from the nuclear plant as possible. This way, the Ukus would have to act much more conspicuously, with much larger, longer-range missiles, to hit it.
It's another result of Russia going too slowly; the Ukuleles are still way too close to the nuclear plant and in a position to do something sneaky that they can blame on the Russians.
The longer Russia takes, the more time and opportunity they've given NATO/US/Ukulele to cause havoc with small strikes that do big damage, such as the dam, as well as give them grist for their propaganda mills. This is regardless of how many Ukulele soldiers and NATO equipment the Russians have taken out - I don't want to hear "the Russians are grinding them down!" argument anymore.
Russia needs to drop the hammer, pronto.
Here's my view, very brief but a bit long for an Internet comment. In short, Russia very much does not want to occupy hostile Ukr territory. The USA is provoking them into doing this, but it isn't working.
https://science1arts2and3politics.substack.com/p/why-russia-doesnt-want-to-conquer
The USA provokes by using Ukr for missile launches against Russia. But if Russia responds by taking territory, then they'll just use longer range missiles. The ideal result for the USA would be the complete occupation of Ukr.
Then Russia should've taken the territory and forced them to use longer range missiles. It's actually better because longer range missiles are more conspicuous and easier to track and/or shoot down. It would be easier for Russia to prove with 100% certainty that NATO/Ukulele shot the missile(s).
There is still a lot of Russia-friendly territory west of the Dnieper that Russia could occupy with very few problems. They should be occupying it right now.
I can't believe that the Russian general Staff haven't offered you an officer's commission Chucky; it would allow your erudite planning abilities to shine.
Obviously, they offered you and your Clausewitzian military genius a commission and you accepted, because they’re fucking this up and you think it’s just fine.
Chucky's solution for WW2...
"Russia should have conquered Japan in the first week, and then used Japan's cards to sweep through India and weaken Britain, before securing Oceania...".
;)
No, that's just your imagination, retard.
Did a mere 3 likes on a flame twigger you? Aww. <3
Did I bring up some deeply buried traumatic memories about how you always got floorwiped in Risk by your 3yr old sister?
Shit man, sorry for that. I didn't know. :(
CHUCKY
What if this war stint is a controlled operation on both sides to rid Ukraine of most of the population. It's a miss mash of different people anyway from Poland and the Baltic states Tartars Kossacks and others as far away as Mongolia.
In a serious possibility of war the protagonists do not engage in talk of terror like it is done here, especially from the Ukrainian media sources. War is serious business one does not need to terrorize the population with what if horrors like bombing a Nuclear reactor. The folks mostly terrorized by this are those near the reactor and are the ones getting the hell out of there.
The way the politicians and military bosses along with Nato are behaving I do not see the fear one should see in their faces and hear in their voices.
A Nation in peril of war does not allow it's citizens to mass immigrate away from it in the time of its greatest danger.
Sumpin Dont Smell Rite... Paaadnaa
WBJ
Could be. Ukraine has never really been a "nation." It was always part of Russia in the eastern half, Poland and Hungary in the western half.
You don’t need the ignore button. Just pass over my comments, you geopolitical genius. You know it all already, anyhow.
Re-birth of Khazaria? Israel laid out some plans for that way back in 1999 when it became clear the Greater Israel Project was failing.
BINGO.
I was waiting for a comment related to that. Also remember H. Kissinger stating some time ago: Israell will no longer exist in 30 years or so.
WBJ
This has been in the back of mind since this whole show started. Looks like the plan is to feed Ukrainian men into the meat grinder, have the women and children flee abroad where they can start new lives, then once the dust has settled, allow those with multiple citizenships to return and pick over the spoils.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/on-ukraine-border-dual-citizens-nervously-rely-on-israeli-travel-papers-to-flee-war/#:~:text=To%20get%20him%20and%20others,Ukrainian%20citizen%20barred%20from%20leaving.
I do see a vast clearance of rich land, indeed.
people removed, cities levelled, militarised zone.
And a "war of attrition", a slaughter, a real life live exercise to test shtuff out...This horror show should have ended this time last year?
there is something else going on,
it is a Pretend War somehow... : (
rubberheid.
Yes, like the fake Pandemic and the deadly vaxx, I smell a large Rat in the Kitchen. We are once more treated to a grand opera of deceit with the whole world being the Stage. I wrote about this several months ago but emotionally I couldn't let go of Putin and Russia. I wanted so badly for this to be the miss step that would finally see the end of this cabal of evil.
It's absurd in the extreme to believe that Ukrainian soldiers and to a much lesser degree civilians are being killed for a small amount of real estate that is ethnically Russian. All you hear about is Russian aggression against Ukraine. Everything The Ukraine Government does pretty well means harm to their own people, thats because Ukraine is run from the top down by foreigners not real Ukrainians. If it was truly a case of fighting for the survival of the country then why the refusal to negotiate all along. There is no national spirit or cohesion there. Ukraine has been a vassal of the west since the late 90s. Russia in my opinion has no desire to conquer or control the Ukraine beyond insisting on it being a neutral state. It's not worth bleeding and dying over as the Russians aptly demonstrate by letting the Ukrainian army impale itself on their three ring circus line of defence.
The Khazars figure large in Ukraine ( new Khazaria ) but that is a subject requiring study of its own.
WBJ
Simplicus, if I pony up the $80 subscription, does it mean I'll get an IGNORE button? ;D
suck it up punk, or join the RSHack gang.
delayed response noted ; ) on me, you might get a pass...
You underestimate how unpopular this war was when it started among the Russian population. It's a civil war. A lot of people had friends and family on both sides. A lot of people would have preferred to ostrich and pretend NATO and the Zionist neocons didn't have plans on the Russian heartland. Putin isn't a dictator - he holds power by popular support.
I share this sentiment, that Russia ought to use overwhelming force and subdue Ukraine once and for all now. I know most posters here are against this line of thought. Since the start of the SMO/NotWar, we've been hearing that Russia wants to destroy Ukie army and ability to fight, so the slow grind approach favours them. That was fine for the initial period, and it has worked well, Ukies having lost 3 armies already. However, there's one aspect that planners need to consider: war is very unpredictable; the longer the conflict, the more uncertainty of future events. For eg, NATO could get its act together, or come up with some new way of weakening Russia; Putin could die; etc. Sure this is unlikely, but not impossible. i.e. longer time = more uncertainty. From this angle alone, it would seem now is good time to disable Ukraine, bring it to its knees, completely destroy it's ability to wage war. For example: Russia has the means to destroy all of Ukraine's coal / hydro power plants - do it now. Disable the nuclear power plants. Disable all airports and all railway lines. Do all this NOW. Basically make Ukraine unable to operate as a state. Then, go in and replace the Ukie nazi govt with a sympathetic one, accept a Ukie surrender on Russia's terms and legalise / formalise the victory. Technically do not occupy all of Ukraine, only take the Russian parts, and leave the rump as a Russian vassal / protectorate. Russia's stated objective from the start of the SMO has been to disarm Ukraine, de-nazify, and ensure Ukraine remains neutral. Knocking off the Ukie state now achieves all those objectives. If NATO wants to fight then, they have to take the first step and we know they will not. The other, wider Russian political objective, viz. to encourage the rise of a multi-polar world against NATO/US hegemony, is already well on track and irreversible now.
Russia's current way of fighting has already been explained many times, and to some people the reasons make less sense with each passing day. It looks like this is due to Putin's risk-averse, legalistic, genuinely peaceful temperament. For example, listening to Medvedev or Patrushko's statements, we know that if they were in charge Ukraine would have been obliterated by now. If there are other strategic reasons why Russia might be pursuing the slowly, slowly approach, lets discuss them.
Let's agree we are all armchair generals here, including our host Simplicius, and also those that don't agree with this line of thought and support the slowly slowly approach. So please lets have a civil discussion and spare us the ad hominem attacks.
The only strategic justification for Russia's current methods may be that Russia wants to also destroy NATO and particularly the Anglo-US hegemon. The Anglo world has historically been anti-Slavic, anti-Russia for nearly a thousand years, without success. They keep trying, though. Perhaps Putin wants to ensure that they are so weakened this time that they will not have the ability to do anything to Russia for the next few 100s years.
Doomer.
Oh no! Robert "Snowflake" Lindsey blocked me! Whatever will I do?
It seems to me the true goal is to deprive the Russians of the valuable power produced by the plant. This shows that the Ukrs have given up on ever retaking the place. It implies they might also destroy oil refineries and so forth.
The plant is not operational
I should have written "the valuable power potentially produced by the plant."
on manufacturing stinger manpads more than 20 years ‘out of production’. Some observations:
that would be 4 or 5 generations of chip set!
why not manufacture one of the past 3 generation stinger?
production difficulties: where buy chips? where are the fabrication machines, tools, jigs, and process sheets, where are skilled techs, and where are testers to assure quality?
I think stinger is not useful in any order of battle, nato or other
Didn't Russia already say: "If you blow up the npp we'll nuke your ass"?
Edit: Lol Simplicius is definitely American as he uses m/d/y
One of the issues with allowing conflicts to last a long time are "board clearing" moves or reshuffling the deck midgame. It's pretty clear that the AFU doesn't have a winning hand so the plan is to stall the game until NATO can force a reshuffle of the cards and hope for a better hand. This spy thriller novel action at the power plant is an attempt at that. I'd be shocked if Russia hasn't already taken steps or has a response waiting. As for a Russian offensive, Kharkov and Sumy make sense as from a Russia VS NATO perspective pushing the Ukraine border away from Moscow would be priority 1 with a second priority being Denying NATO access to the black sea. Which would mean taking Odessa.
There a small, finite number of shuffles (and they're declining) available than the 8*10 to the 67th from a card deck. I'd bet even money Putin, et. al. have sorted many out and developed responses.
For as long as I've followed Putin's geopolitics, he's always had a rope a dope style. He waits for NATO/US to make a mistake and then swiftly counters. Real combat is a little more volatile but I also expect a response ready if there is an attempt at the power plant.
My dude, look at the map. Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey share Black Sea with the Russians. NATO already has access to the Black Sea.
Military aged men in the propaganda photos!! I smell a White Helmet Production courtesy of MI-6. I imagine a great density of AD is in proximity to ZNPP. And if Zelensky/CIA/MI-6 did such a thing, how safe would the NATO meeting in Vilnius be? Russia has said it will respond to any such nuclear terrorism decisively. Russia recently launched more ISR type satellites and would have as many "eyes" open as it can. The RoW will know who to believe. Plus, NATO's already at war with Russia, so NATO better understand what it might get as a result.
Wagner was Nationalized, and many Russians have applauded that move. I recently wrote about Natural Monopolies, National Security being one that clearly isn't in NATO and most other nations. Even Russia isn't 100% in that regard. IMO, ALL natural monopolies ought to be Public Utilities, and that includes almost everything related to what human society needs to operate. Once upon a time in human history, that's the way it was. One of the reasons the world's so fucked-up is due to that mode of social organization being usurped. But that's a subject for me to write about once I get my Substack organized. It will be named Karlof1"s Geopolitical Gymnasium and is very unlikely to discuss Russia's SMO like Simplicius does. It'll deal with Big Picture issues as the Multipolar World comes into focus.
In the brainwashed world of the Uke supporters, the response strikes would be their "aha! See, that's why Russia blew up ZNPP." <eye roll>
Military age men in good shape, no less. And none of them were stocking up or panick buying. Where were the shopping carts packed with canned goods?
karlof1
I look forward to your substack - please inform via this substack if S is kind enough to allow such -
What a natural monopoly is might require definition - National Security ditto, for if it's a claim to a state monopoly of violence as per the usual ynak and 'west' ruling class fantasy there may be a question of category to sort out
Thanks for your feedback. Yes, definitions are required. Indeed, the entire issue of what IMO an ideal political-economy ought to be is a rather long essay. I've written about bits and pieces at my VK and have one short essay and additional comment pinned at the top so it can be easily found and read. Today I posted Xi Jinping's SCO speech and linked to this week's conversation between Alastair Crooke and Judge Napolitano, the first half of which IMO is an absolute must watch.
Thanks for your reply and for all your work in posting and translating original docs - something otherwise largely neglected, much needed glimpses of life and thought inside the other countries, of which more is required
I'm in Africa and all my attempts to sign up to VK have failed - that's one reason I was pleased you announced your own substack - the bits and pieces you put on MoA and here and at Martyanov's are very interesting but lack the context and continuity required by/for the reformulating of definitions and putting up a comprehensive pôint of view
Karlof1 is great! I remember you from MOA, comrade! Welcome to Simplicius!