After a brief hiatus marking a period of attempted deflection, where Ukraine and its Western sponsors tried desperately to misdirect our gaze to Russia’s putative ‘high losses’, this week has seen a spate of new articles again proclaiming Ukraine’s dire frontline straits.
I'm a boomer. Retired Army. I'll be celebrating when NATO falls. Quit lumping groups of people together. People are individuals, NOT groups, who think in lock-step. Many of my former brothers in arms feel the same way. We're sick of what our country has become... Chip
1 in 7 Russians gave their lives fighting the NAZIs and here we are fucking them over. What a fucking disgrace.
Another thing is too, if I had a really drunk and stupid friend at a bar who was going to go and assault a bouncer I knew would beat my friend into a bloody pulp, I'd stop him from doing something so stupid. To be pro Ukraine we are now supposed to encourage them to go fight a military that will surely trample them to death or we are accused of being anti Ukraine. I often wonder if this isn't some cynical plan to destroy Ukraine for some purpose. Maybe the Zios in DC thought it was a clever way to rid the country of it's NAZIs.
It's a money laundering op. On top of that, it has been a NEOCON plan for decades since the fall of the USSR to destroy Russia and break it into five or six different countries. The west (USSA) cannot stand to be a "partner". It wants total power and control over the world. And that USSA, is controlled 100% by Israel and their PAC's... Chip
Sounds about right. I'm quite up also on what is going on in the world of oil, on account of investments and a chance audience with Admiral William Crowe (Reagan's Defense Chief). Russia had just convinced the Kurds to cast their lot with Russia,,, and a short while later Baghdad also. China in the meantime coopted Iran into their sphere of oil deals. This all happened a couple of years before the USA announced they wanted Ukraine in NATO. I think it was to tie Russian forces up so the USA could go back into Iraq and simultaneously Iran and not worry about Russia helping. Russia has already told Assad in Syria, they will bail him out, once they are done with Ukraine so ya, the Israelis are also fucking furious.
Not many people know that Russian and Chinese allied forces have fire control over the Persian Gulf now. Crowe told me, a few short months after the 2nd Iraq invasions "If we lost the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf, we would see Depression Era economic conditions across the west, in a matter of months. " He went on to say that the USA knows Saddam has no WMDs and it was all about oil. Nato is in a really bad situation with oil control now. They appear to have even lost Saudi Arabia now.
Likewise, yet I only spent a few years as a reservist in armoured infantry in 1970s. I joined specifically to get military training, not to fight for the Bankers that have long owned the British Government but to fight for humanity against these Bankster's in the worldwide Civil War that WWIII will ultimately be. Over the subsequent years I had thought that perhaps it might not happen in my life time, sadly it looks like I was over optimistic.
The Ukrainians never had a chance given the demographic and economic overmatch. Once the sanctions failed USUK could have tapered off. Instead they keep doubling down. Where does this end without the total humiliation of NATO or a World War?
you badly misunderstand NATO (or more precisely, the heads of state of NATO members) to just make up new narratives on the fly. Washington DC could be invaded by Bangladeshi university students and they'd spin it as a win for democracy. There are never any losses - only new narratives.
it is false reality for the Masses! Who thought we'd see the day when the Dem party was busy spinning a tale that the president isn't THAT important -- a lot of people can run the government, you just don't worry your pretty little heads about that! Or where the voters of one party have ZERO say in who runs as their presidential nominee? Or where the incumbent (incompetent) was really installed and not elected, due to massive fraud in key cities? Or where that junta threw people into jail willy nilly for a protest led astray by FBI plants? I could not have imagined and would have rejected it all as insane fantasy. It is.
Ultimately the Bankster's play all sides in their genocidal war against wholesome humanity. They always play from the perspective of multiple paths of profit from their crimes against humanity, the harm done ito their betters is for these demons, the most rewarding profit.
If something cannot go on forever, it will eventually stop. Unfortunately, the leaders of Modern Gomorrah lack the foresight to do anything except eventually suffer an ignominious end.
For once, you could be right. If China is prepared to build up, what remains of Ukraine, then West could be relieved. But China never does anything without a string. And here we have Blackrock/Vanguard&Co watering their mouths over Ukrainian assets. And how much is already sold out or promised as financial guarantee? I do not believe that China will be the peacebroker, US will not allow it.
I'm told Blackrock already has 40% of West Ukraine's arable land bought and paid for. If so perhaps it would be a lever? Russia threatens to take it simply to deny it to them unless they participate in a peace and resolution sometime soon?
I sincerely hope the Russian understand what is at stake. They have to take as large chunk of Ukraine as possible. Then they can trade land for sanctions lifted and their assets un-freezed.
There may be lands/oblasts that they "identify" as Ukrainian and have no cultural connection to Russia either linguistically or culturally. Instead of imposing an occupation, it is smarter to trade for something else. Whether or not Larry Fink is a Talmudist I know nothing about. He is a self-confessed democrat according to his own information.
If you have any evidence show it - records of contracts, Blackrock shareholder meetings, multiple reports from reliable journalism - you will find nothing for this Blackrock propaganda is common conspiracy theory in the west, a diversionary tactic – you have noticed with all the clownshows around the presidents that DC loves diversionary
All western news reports are of an investment fund, an unsuccessful one at that, and of JP Morgan's involvement with raising sovereign debt
Land Sales to foreigners are forbidden under Ukraine law, anything by way of waivers the current régime does will be reversed, and are very unpopular with the Ukraine famers and people, and of course will be reversed with Russian victory
Blackrock is anything but foolish enough to invest in such activity
If you are looking for illegal and corrupt US corporate exploitation look into the Cargills Carlyles Monsanto grip on the Ukrainian farms practices and grain trade --the successful conversion of farmlands to GM ind ag norms, and the obtention of EU waivers for import into the EU, to the great expense of Eastern European farmers especially - who have frequently blocked imports, gone on strike, invaded Brussels EU headquarters etc
These grains are treated as being unfit for human consumption by many countries, and barely good enough for animal feed
This destruction of Ukrainian farmer economy and lives, along with many European, is indeed a scandal - reported on but given little attention in the west, as this serves your ruling class interests
You should concentrate on this, as opposed to fantasy conspiracy theories without foundation nor consequence
- if you think that everything the RF gvmt asserts is certainly true then you are not investigating correctly
Did the US "allow" China to broker the Saudi/Iran rapprochement? Or did Trump blow that leverage with the Sulemaini assassination, which was done during a diplomatic mission?
Was Trump really responsible for that or was his advisor, Pompeo the guy who really ordered the take out? Or perhaps it was Netanyahu who professes to run the USA.
Here's how I see it. Trump was being hounded and pounded by a lot of media fabrications, deep state chicanery and GOPe betrayals. Show of strength, perhaps, likely egged on by those inside his party like Pompeo and his son-in-law. I hardly think it compares to Clinton bombing the Serbs, or Bush I and II taking us into wars in the middle east. Most believe the overthrow of Mohammad Mossadegh was a bigger deal as it allowed the West to steal Iranian oil and put the Shah in power leading to the 1979 hostage crisis and perpetual enmity of the Iranians.
Yes, Trump was really 'responsible' for that, although it shivers me timbers to consider someone with so little understanding of geopolitics having that much murderous power. Im surprised the Iranians didnt lose their minds over that one.
The Soleimani Hit was highly illegal and immoral; the guy was def no angel, but whacking people on diplomatic missions sets a very dangerous precedent.
US dont like China to play any role other than a place for cheap production. The Saudi/Iran deal was unwelcome but then you had 7th oct and war between Israel and Hamas/Hisbollah with support from Saudi enemy Iran/Yemen. So I think they are not so friendly anymore. On the other hand Saudi scrapped the agreement with Israel that otherwise would have been signed.
But that is the very crux of what is developing: the US is increasingly being sidelined and flanked by multi-polar players who delight in successfully pulling off deals the US "doesn't like", including a fresh one with the Palestinians and a developing one with Ukraine. Who knows what else is in the works?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has toppled one big, fat domino - can you hear the clicks accelerating?
Yes. I am delighted and horrified. Russia deserves a better role than the cold war villain and China cannot upset the US. If America can learn some humility and stop calling itself exceptional superhumans and meddling in everyone else's affairs, we could have a better world. The horror lies in whether they can do it without violence.
I think the big boys of the war profiteering type have already put in their bids, and probably even bought their shares of Ukraine, but as Russia will be the Kiev protector, not NATO, perhaps some Russian companies can get in on this. These bumpkins from west Ukraine were so rotten, offering up their population as a sacrifice to their own narrow ambitions that were so at odds with Ukraine's interests. And reaping all sorts of rewards, Lord only knows.
If NATO was a military alliance capable of fighting a large scale ground war in Europe, then yes we'd already be in full blown war with Russia with boots on the ground. But thankfully, NATO is incapable of doing anything except fighting low intensity conflicts against lesser peers. So no, there will be no world war at least not in the foreseeable future. In order to do that you need to completely overhaul the entire corrupt and inefficient military industrial complex of the West. But the grift that has been going on with NATO favors a lot of money changing hands for very little or nothing at all. Eastern Ukraine will be absorbed into Russia and the western part will become a client state of Moscow, fully integrated into the Eurasian economic block. Russia cannot allow this tumor to yet fester again and become an existential threat to the Russian State.
Blinken-Sullivan, and others in their mold, only have two moves in their repertroire : (1) doubling down (2) conciliatory-verbal-headfake shortly followed by a contradictory repeat provocation ...
So it's to be expected. But eventually, like years too late, even they must reckon with reality. Ukraine goes the way of many other cold war proxies who came before it.
My friend, you and I would immediately go to jail if the government discovered we are PRINTING DOLLARS. On the other hand our focking government prints trillions to finance their stupid Khazarian wars. The printed fiat money simply dilute the moneys in our pockts...i e theft from the people.
If the losers in DC had limited budget, they would quickly seek peace. Trump printed 2 trillion to bribe doctors and hospitals during the scamdemic. Biden printed 4 trillions to feed the beasts in Israel and Ukraine. The next POS ruler will have to print 10 trillions to fock around with Taiwan?...
‘Ukraine highly appreciates China’s positive role in promoting peace, says Ukrainian FM’
‘According to a press release on China-Ukraine foreign ministers' talks, Kuleba said the Ukrainian side attaches importance to China's opinions and has carefully studied six common understandings jointly outlined by China and Brazil for a political resolution of the Ukraine crisis.’
Despite their best attempts to be snarky, one can see the editors gnawing at the original text, the NYT has to take and to present this initiative seriously
WSJ better succeeds with the China authoritarian hypocrite friend of Russia snark
Given China’s record in the brokering of peace deals which previously their Government had not been aware of had spent generations working against and were totally unprepared for, Iran-SA, Palestine
Someone’s going to have find the best way for the US ruling class to back out of this war without losing too much face, may as well be China – this will be the first step to making the best deal they can make regarding business with China
Reuters: Foreign Minister Wang Yi today held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart in Guangzhou, according to sources. Are you able to provide any further information on what was discussed?
Mao Ning: This morning, Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Guangzhou.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted that China and Ukraine are friends to each other. Everything that stands out in bilateral exchanges is about friendship and cooperation. The two countries established a strategic partnership more than a decade ago, and have respected each other and treated each other as equals. Mutually beneficial cooperation has made steady headway. The presidents of our two countries stressed the importance to view and envision bilateral relations from a long-term perspective, and make sure that bilateral relations and cooperation will keep moving forward. We need to follow this guidance, maintain communication and exchanges, enhance mutual trust, carry forward our traditional friendship, promote the people-to-people bond, and achieve sound and steady growth of China-Ukraine relations.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China ushered in a new journey of comprehensively deepening reform. China’s all-round modernization endeavor will bring new opportunities to people from all countries. Ukraine is one of the first countries to support and participate in Belt and Road cooperation. In recent years, China has remained Ukraine’s largest trading partner and the largest exporter of agricultural products. In the first half of this year, our bilateral trade has shown a momentum of rapid growth, demonstrating the space and potential of bilateral cooperation. The two sides need to give full play to cooperation mechanisms between the two countries and enhance practical cooperation in various fields. China will continue to increase food imports from Ukraine and work together to keep logistics corridors open and ensure global food security. Foreign Minister Wang thanked the Ukrainian side for the help it provided for the evacuation of Chinese nationals, especially the Chinese students in Ukraine, when the conflict broke out. He also expressed the hope that Ukraine will continue to work effectively to keep Chinese personnel and institutions safe in Ukraine.
The two foreign ministers exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis. Foreign Minister Wang noted that the Ukraine crisis has entered its third year, the conflict continues and there is the risk of escalation and spillover. China remains firmly committed to working for a political settlement of the crisis. President Xi Jinping laid out four principles which provide the fundamental guidance for seeking a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. On this basis, China and Brazil jointly issued six common understandings that include the three principles for deescalating the conflict, the three elements for peace talks and the three appeals on humanitarian protection. The common understandings also highlight the need to prevent nuclear risks and protect the stability of industrial and supply chains. The common understandings represent the broadest common ground of the international community and have been widely supported and endorsed. China believes that all conflicts ultimately have to be resolved at the negotiating table, and the solutions to any dispute can only be found through political means. Recently, both Ukraine and Russia have expressed to varying degrees the willingness to negotiate. Although the conditions and timing are not yet ripe, we support all efforts conducive to peace and will continue to play a constructive role to enable a ceasefire and resume the peace talks. China cares about the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and will continue to provide humanitarian aid supplies.
Foreign Minister Kuleba said that China is a great country. China and Ukraine are each other’s strategic partners and important economic and trade partners. Ukraine supports China’s position on the Taiwan question and will remain committed to one China. Ukraine hopes to work with China to implement the important common understandings between the two presidents, cement political mutual trust, activate cooperation in such areas as trade and agriculture, and strengthen subnational and sister-cities exchanges. Ukraine highly appreciates China’s active and constructive role to promote peace and uphold the international order. Ukraine attaches importance to China’s views, and has looked closely at the six common understandings issued by China and Brazil on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. Ukraine is willing and ready to have dialogue and negotiation with Russia. And of course, negotiations should be rational, substantive and aimed at achieving just and lasting peace.
While Kuleba met w/ Wang Yi in China, the pope's foreign minister--yes, the Holy See has a foreign minister--met w/ the Usurper of Kiev & told him that a Peace Formula which does not include Russia's perspective, concerns & realities is [paraphrasing] delusional
China does not bandy around Peace Plans without a serious plan to get them done- and surely the preliminary work on the various organisations long ago has been in place, BRICS, SCO and so on
yes, and they have Papal Nuncios who are the Vatican's ambassadors to important countries. And the one man I met, a Frenchman, was an urbane, witty, intelligent man who was great company at a dinner table.
Why do you think and say that - such a statement surely requires explantion and dignified arguments
Do you mean that China has not got what it takes to....
Or that RF has not? Or that the Ukraine will resist?
How else will the war ever end?
If you listen to the US hired hands, not an easy task and I do not blame you if you do not, they will not agree to peace, even tho' they are backing out and down
It is fairly clear that the RF recognises they need allies, the whole BRICS SCO JDeclaration is meaningless otherwise
If these allies can not do peace, who can? or who can prevent them?
Only Russia and NATO (through EU and US diplomats) can negotiate an end to this war. There is absolutely no benefit to Russia in negotiating now. I sense that Zelensky is growing desperate for negotiations and some kind of cease fire. Russia will not agree to a cease fire, even during negotiations. Based on experience with NATO, that is wise. Also, I seriously doubt the hard core Russian hating nazis and NATO types around Zelensky will let him negotiate anything. If they sense he's actually serious about conceding large territories, they'll kill him and call it a Russian assassination.
Gerrard, this is an interesting aspect of it, I have seen similar comments elsewhere. But what does it really mean?? Zelensky has allegedly been threatened multiple times by the neo-Nazis not to even think about peace if he values his life.
China's 12-point peace plan is still on the table but has not moved from there, other than the drawer under the table top.
So, the Ukie foreign minister went to Beijing to ask for help with peace but anything positive coming out of that is negative for Z and the West. No?
Why should peace be so negative? Who cares about Z? Why so worried about the régimes?
It's not so much the Ukrainian going to China which is notable, it is the China saying they'll help out which is notable
You may have observed that the westerners have always been surprised at China's negotiated peace plans - when you think you have a vested interest in war, this would be an expected reaction
They dismissed the previous attempt as ....but China continued nonetheless - contacts not only with RF but Ukraine, but all over the region
But nobody who has lived through a war wishes for it to continue until the end of time
Your focus is on the corrupt régimes in DC and Kiev, or the factions currently in control (a word of not much use in DC)
There are other sources of power than Z or DC or Brussels capable of negotiating - and in fact USEU factions want nothing better than to be rid of this very expensive holocaust
I only hope that China can hope to broker a deal. The Kremlin must be very wary of the US/UK How does China and Russia, mostly Russia make sure they can remove US influence from Ukraine. How do they ensure neutrality? We know the US will just break every agreement whether it is on paper or not?
Most people from the US have never experienced anything even close to war, that is why my fellow Americans are the absolute worst people to have a conversation about ending a war. For decades, the rich in the US had plenty of poor white and black and spanish kids they could send around the world to die for them.
However, Russia has signaled that they remain open to a Minsk-3, even if they do not call it that. You'd think they'd learn. I suspect the reason that they do not is because Russia doesn't want this war, they do not want to make war on their bretheren, They do not want to end the West, but to join it, just not as vassals.
Same reason the Americans keep selling out their Kurdish allies, and yet the Kurds keep on coming back for more.
It's just an act of courtesy from Russia, nothing more. They are not considering any ceasefire, only full capitulation from Ukraine and its sponsors. Which won't happen. Show must go on.
Having Elensky threatened means nothing to me. He has his bags packed and he has plenty of places to run and hide. The election in the US is when the big change comes to Ukraine. Elensky gone and one of the banderites will take charge and Russia will have to deal with an even worse criminal regime, the west is only holding on for the money they are stealing, everyday more and more billions are going to Ukraine courtesy of taxpayers in the west.
Russia needs a non-NATO buffer zone. Nothing without an explicit definition of the buffer zone will go forward. I suspect what China is doing is beginning the process of verbalizing bare minimum terms and seeming like the Good Cop. In addition to a buffer zone, Russia will need protocols for when the agreement is void and what they will do. They will not accept a go-forward that relies on words provided by NATO knowing NATO has zero intention of fulfillment of any promises.
The RF needs a peace plan, yes – needs a buffer zone, no
What for- they got one up in the north? Does Belarus constitute a buffer zone?
What agreement is going to be void needing protocols in case? This sounds like NATO speak
You think NATO is a party to the peace plan? Who talked about NATO? No one
You think RF will understand let alone have to do with NATO, nor any faith in anything NATO says or does not say?
RF is bound by the JD with China, and for all other reasons imaginable, to play an active part in the solution
NATO has nothing to say, and nothing to say it with, arms army or anything approaching skillful leadership, as well as zero understanding of what is a solution
A PP requires listing the priorities and the essential participants – then the mutual trust as to how to keep the hounds to be kept at bay out of earshot (as per SA Iran) and as incapable as currently, that means squeezing the Ukraine and NATO dry
The world is changed – all those you mention will be relieved that someone has done the work that they can not do, with money they have not got
NATO will cease to exist after this war ends. Also Russia want to create new security system in Europe and peace negotiations should include this issue.
As far as Russia's goal in the conflict aka achieving physical security goes, I'd offer the following consideration for esteemed commentariat to ponder. It doesn't have to be Russia who suppresses them as long as they're passably suppressed. Therefore, if I was playing this scenario, I'd not only let Hungary grab Transcarpathia, but also make Poles advance into three Western Ukrainian provinces, pitting nationalists from both countries against each other. Western Ukraine's irregular terrorist potential will be diminished through incorporation into broader and actually functional statehood on one hand, and partially redirected against it on the other. Nuisance from NATO assets getting even closer is an acceptable trade-off, since it's not much and basically remains at the same threat level Russia is already facing in Tribaltics and Finland. Strategically though it seems to be the only sustainable option with the alternative of drowning in a toxic swamp of destroyed infrastructure and insurgent population eagerly supplied to commit acts of sabotage. Let them slit each other throats instead. After Poles win, institutionalized Western Ukraine will be bound by the same laws and circumstances as the rest of Poland.
As for Romania also having a bite, it may be unwise because the follow-up conflict around fate of Moldova and Transnistria is looming already. On the other hand, the more Ukraine will have disputes with, the merrier.
I'm no VVP, of course, but this should offer some fresh angle to the dilemma of "will/should Russia take all".
Romania isn't going to bite anything. They even trotted out poor old Basescu this week to urge Moldova to let Romanian troops on its soil to "protect" it against Russia, but it's just hot air.
The "fate" of Moldova and PMR is extremely clear - NOTHING will change. Everything you've ever heard to the contrary is scaremongering bullshit.
hopefully you are right. PMR would very much want the border with Russia (or at least Russian controlled territory). Same for Gagauz as Sandu is turning (has turned?) into another 2-bit fascist dictator (outlawing any other parties not agreeing with 'european choice', jailing opponents, etc). Not a good sign and sight , so much for 'democracy'. I do not think Gagauz and PMR would stay for long if regimes like Sandu are allowed to continue...
Romania will definitely play its part since it's being converted into the main NATO warehouse. Huge refurbished bases, new srategic rail network with Euro gauge extending to the East, airbase that's most likely to host Ukie F-16s and where the pilots train. Nearby in Moldavia army and secret services have Romanian liaisons to oversee operations, Transnistria is getting choked in a low-profile blockade and Gagauzia is politically oppressed. It's Ukraine 2.0, reserve pool of cannon fodder and new powder keg to spark. Before long there will be clashes and in ten years Romania has the most chances of being the country of the bloc that gets attacked directly.
Yeah - one can object to cars, solar power, robots, 5G or is it 6 - there are offensive to our culture our democratic rights, and our need for permanent poverty and chaos
Let's see if they can turn down a tasty peace plan - it's free, comes with a package: BRI reconstruction, SCO membership, hospitals, high speed trains, men on Mars...
This assumes that Hungary, Romania and Poland want these territories in the first place.
Speaking of Galicia, since I know that area well, it beggars belief that Poland would want a land populated with millions of fractious and well-armed Ukrainians who are not only by no stretch of the imagination Polish, but who also have committed genocide against Poles within living memory.
Oh, but of all them Poles want Kresy to be returned to them the most. And they understand that this century they'll have only one chance if any. That's why they have already arranged a mandate for their police to operate in Ukraine for example.
Revisionism in Poland is very powerful and memory of losses doesn't stop it. A memorial for the victims had to change places for like five times because local admin didn't want it. Besides, they created and corralled Ukrainian serfs to begin with, so it's possible to do again.
Well, some of them lie piecemeal next to burned out Krab chassis, but there were quite a bunch in early 2020s and especially 2022 when it was discussed as one of the courses of action. I remember the marches signing "doroga do Lwova" and otherwise poorly hidden enthusiasm. Nowadays it might have waned, but not gone. Kresy is a great prize for Poland, I even wonder if they'd prefer Lwov more than Wilno.
Unlikely, nobody needs Poland but Poles. Especially since they drove everyone else away or under. If push comes to shove, it's more likely to be a crater there. That said, Poland also has a history of succesful land acquisition, like that Czech piece they snatched together with Hitler. Not to mention the very existence of Kresy Wschodnie or how they spell that.
And given that Poland succeeds Germany in the role of America's military bulwark in Europe, having materials and presence slowly transferred there, I'm not seeing anything happening to it but occasional annihilation in case of WW3.
Here's "a view beyond the thick fog," courtesy of Sergei Lavrov before the UN Security Council on 17 July: "Just think back to what Antony Blinken had to say in an interview with CNN in February 2021 taking a question about what he thinks of the decision of the previous US administration to recognize the Syrian Golan Heights as part of Israel. The Secretary of State said, “Leaving aside the legalities of that question, as a practical matter, the Golan is very important to Israel’s security.”
Lavrov underscored the American Rules aspect of the rules-based order & how lawless the rules actually are: "The actions of the United States and its allies are hindering international cooperation and the creation of a more just world."
Lavrov, spitting truth before the UN like a boss, synchronizes his tactics w/ Wang Yi's during Kuleba's visit, the two foreign ministers squeezing pet hegemonic projects like Ukraine or Israel or someday Taiwan in a pincer move designed to kettle the prospect of protracted war in a cauldron of futility.
Anyone who still pays for cable and watch mainstream (right or left) is behind just as people who are paying for landlines telephone, or refuse to give up the horse and buggy? The Marxist/neocon Khazarians have been out in your face for a couple of decades. We will learn from each others! We don't need stink pravda of NY shitty.
Simplicius, what would happen if GFM Steyr stops providing spare parts for the radial forging/turning/milling machines like SXP-55 Russia uses to manufacture gun barrels? Say, Austria is forced to sanction/embargo Russia. Russian artillery advantage in the war stops
those machines aren't magic. If something is crucial to your defense a way will be found to get it. GFM Steyr would have been making those machines because they saw a profit in it not because they were the only company who could possibly produce them.
If they have not been able to reverse engineer them through the last 50 years, they are not going to magically be able to do it now and out of the blue.
Apparently these manufacturing tools machinery, "machines to build other machines", are only produced in Western Europe and to a lesser degree in Japan. There is no know-how on how to build them elsewhere. Not in Russia, not in China, not in the US. Now they come with computer-aided capabilities. There is an oligopoly of a few small companies worldwide on this small but crucial market.
Manufacturing of items people encounter in their daily life (household goods, cars, elevators...) has been allowed to move to China and the Third World. That's all lower-end, "downriver" manufacturing. The West is largely de-industrialised, but has retained control of higher-end manufacturing and "tools to make tools", so to speak. Other than computerised steelworking industrial machinery, top-of-the-line metrology devices, for instance, are produced in the UK by Renishaw.
Yes you can still build stuff without the special devices listed above, but it will be lower quality. Think Western vs Soviet block cars.
Then again even if these machines don't break down, Russia won't be able to expand its production line of barrels if needed, by other means other than doing the machining the old way with manual labour WW2 style. However, a part from the lower quality final product, at this point I don't know whether the quasi-artisanal skills required to do so have been retained or have gone lost. Probably they have.
i answered already - the entire 'story' is another hopium BS smoke screen.
and lastly, I think in this war we are seeing very clearly how well made mass produced things greatly overpower any 'special devices'. if each NATO tank is a unicorn that requires a team of babysitters to actually fight and has to spend 10X time in maintenance vs fighting, who cares about its 'specialness'? Same for artillery. Same for fighter planes, sorry F-16 can't land on airfields anymore they are not 'smooth enough' for them. what??
at certain point, the whole greatly overpriced unicorn BS is just that , BS. things need to work and work well enough. and be available in sufficient quality. one super artillery shell that only works if entire satellite constellation is above you and directing you will always lose to 100 'dumb' ,'stupid' guns from 1962 firing at you. You just die.
'quantity has a quality of its own' which is not precise transaction of 'переход количества в качество' but close enough.
you can mass produce barrels if you have the GFM Steyr milling gizmo.
If you don't, you'd have to do the milling manually, with specialised manpower you don't have, inevitably producing less barrels (the machine can do in ten minutes what would take tens of work/hour), and this lower quantity of barrels would also happen to be of inferior quality...
I do not think so however conversation is pointless - future will come and show us. I think you greatly overestimate 'Swiss/Germany quality and "traditions"' and greatly underestimate the Slavs. It was Slavs that flew and continue to fly into space (along with those uncultured Yankees that also somehow 'lower quality' than uberrace), there is German/Swiss spacecrafts? There is German space exploration program? There is German nuclear program (hint, it is Russian now globally with us in USA being distant second best and French further behind). Dont underestimate your neighbors, typically does not end well..
Really in this context, you should be extolling the virtues of Slavic clocks and watches because that's where advanced machine tooling shows.
Like I said, only in Japan they caught up a little when they did their big autarchic push in the first half of the 20th century.
Machine tooling is irrelevant in terms of monetary rewards, so civil companies don't enter the field. For military purposes ,worldwide it suffices to buy these machines from West Europe/Japan.
That's how the technological knowledge gap between Germany and the rest of the world has maintained itself for two centuries and into the foreseeable future
Good machines don't break. Only broken machines need spare parts. I used to work down the road from Steyr as a Millrite. Never heard of an "SXP-55" myself.
What are those parts for ? I may not understand your original post. Surely they are not for metal working machines of any type !! I'm still waiting for an explanation as to what an "SXP-55" is ????? I take it, it is not a metal working machine but a firearm ?
I took my year of pre-employment machining in 1979 and there was a new buzz happening in machining circles: It was called Computer Numerical Control (CNC) and it was said to be going to change machining fundamentally and that is what it did. I completed my apprenticeship choosing the military to finish my trade off. After realizing that machining was indeed a shitty trade, in pay and working conditions, I went back to College and got a diploma in electronics. I eventually ended up in Upper Austria working as a millrite down the road from Steyr.
Whatever these forging machines are, they were designed and built before the CNC revolution and they would not look or operate the same today. That explains why a Google search yielded no hits.
What I can tell you is that the Austrians and Germans are quite big on themselves and kept reminding me how superior they are, even after being beaten to a bloody pulp in WW2. Their egos survived. They aren't superior. They just have a different business model that allows them to build smaller quantities of better quality stuff. Think Mercedes compared to GM. One guy, for example was proudly showing me how thick the metal was on his german made sockets for his socket wrench. Of course it cost a lot more than an American or Jap built socket but how many of those do you see break , in any case ? They usually end up on the ground and rolled under a 20 ton machine. ... so what is the point of this higher quality expensive stuff ?
My question is, what on earth are the Russians doing that would require the bevel gears to burn out by the thousands ? I've worked on lots of machines and even the crappiest ones , running at full capacity, last decades before showing signs of wear. Gear 'hobbing' is tricky and highly accurate, BUT, with CNC it is done quite effortlessly and one doesn't actually need a CNC machine to do CNC machining. The stepper motor and microcontroller revolutionized the world, They are the heart and soul of CNC. You can convert standard old machine tools to CNC , with $75 in parts per axis. I'm not doubting you info but look at the dates on it. Think Adding Machines of the 1970's and what happened to them when the desk top computers or calculators came online. No comparison.
These orders must have been made in a panic as they sensed that Steyr was shutting down those lines so they warned their customers "Last call for bevel gears". The USSR was still on and the world looked a lot different then, all the more so in the Warsaw Pact and factories. Your info is just too out of date, I suspect.
you can see towards the middle there are colour photos of the SXP-55 still currently in use for barrel-making both in Russia and the US.
Don't think they use CNC to manufacture the gun barrels but certainly they do for more complex pieces shaped on other (Western/Japan made) machines.
For sure the Russians have the thing now working 24/7, and have more than 20 other similar machines bought at the time of the USSR for making all sorts of barrels as you can verify on Simplicius' previous post + anything they bought ever since.
I think the specifications for hardening, tempering(hot cold cycles) gun barrels have to go through to achieve a lifetime of a few thousand shootings are pretty extreme. Multiply by the number of machines Russians have available and that's how the need of spare parts can rise even for these sturdy machines.
Alexander Mercurious talked about it recently and quoted the source. Basically
- RU makes '10K barrels' a year (not 100)
- RU has tons of this equipment, both foreign and domestic made. A lot of equipment came for gas/oil exploration and exploitation/extraction industry. Same concept.
So this is another hopium 'RU only has missiles for one more strike, we swear' BS from the West to keep UA zombies fighting. We have seen (and heard) this before. Same results.
Do you really think 4th largest economy in the world, larger than Germany by a huge amount is going to rely on ANYTHING critical that is foreign, especially from hostile block (EU is undeniably hostile and aggressive)? the импортозамещение (literally import- replacing or switching to domestic sources) is now way over 10 years old ...
Yes I think so, there is no way to match German/Swiss precision tooling knowledge, accumulated in centuries.
You'd have to start now and see successes far away in the future, or produce barrels of inferior quality by yourself. The US is in the same bind, they use GFM Steyr equipment to build their arsenal.
At the moment, there seem to be no problems with accessing these machines, but there could be hurdles down the line for Russia, as confrontation with NATO steepens.
I think that is very arrogant point of view. there is nothing 'accumulated in centuries' that other nations (forget Russians or Indian, any nation with sufficient time and resources) cannot repeat or make better. unless you continue to improve, each day , every day ->, you get left behind. and now it would be very hard for German/Swiss to continue to improve as they essentially are satellites of block that is hostile to Global Majority (hint - 85% of the planet).
Japan more or less did emulate German machining techniques but after a century they are still inferior, though better than anyone else worldwide, think Swiss watches vs Casio.
No other country enters the race as on the civil side you'd try to crack into a small closed market in the hands of monopolists with exclusive know-how, which is a no-go.
On the military side you'd have to have a case like imperial Japan to start something government sponsored with a huge investment of resources, which doesn't happen in the contemporary world where war is frowned upon
Man maybe my watches analogy was not 100% fitting, but you get where I want to go.
(Then again, from the point of view of us consumers, these watches feel worth the same, but maybe under a microscope the difference would show. Perhaps the Swiss clock would last a few more centuries than the Seiko, what do we know?).
I have no particular hard on for Germany, although I was happy to see the West did not just simply surrender all its manufacturing potential to China for short term gains from cheaper labour.
What we use to think of when we visualise industrial output (cars, washing machines..) is just the tip of the iceberg. There are thousands of markets, like the machine tooling one, which are strategic and where we retain control. It's mainly the lower tech value-added chains that got outsourced (and yes, semiconductors...).
I bet the US has a grip as tight as the Germans, in other fields such as drilling or piping or mining equipment
BINGO !! I too worked for Germans and Austrian companies, in Europe and North America as a machinist and millrite. They have this enduring ego that two defeats in world wars was never able to put to bed. One of the main reasons they lost in WW2 was because of that ego. Their tanks they sent to war against Russia were in fact inferior and fell apart in battle. They believe that if a Mercedes is better than a Ford, then that means they are superior, but they miss the whole point of business models. The only thing they came close to the yanks in car making was the Volkswagon.
I've never even seen a german or austrian micrometer but that may be because they knew they'd never outperform on quality and price to a Japanese Mitutoyo, so they never bothered even trying to make them.
I quit my job for an Austrian company when all these huge machines they were building and shipping around the world were falling apart and customers were screaming at me, even though I had nothing to do with the design. I just got too embarrassed and ashamed to continue.
Give the Russians the same budgets and embargo free existence and they will make anything the Europeans make and just as good, now that the Bolshevics are dead and buried.
There is nothing very complicated in such technology. Do you think that Russia, a country that can build nuclear reactors and that is leader in nuclear technologies and also much ahead of Germany in space technologies, can't build a machine to make pipes?
Well done to Putin's necromancer corps and their techpriests, when they figure out how to reanimate hruks as combat effective troops the defeat of Ukraine shall be set in stone.
Thank you for yet another comprehensive battfield analysis.
For the record, this summer has been extraordinarily hot and dry in Ukraine. So there's no excuse for an Abrams tank to have limited mobility allegedly due to wet terrain. I have no idea what happened, but I can assure you that mud was not involved.
I suppose somewhere Kamala Harris is laughing as she reads over her daily intel briefing on Ukraine...
If she's allowed any actual authority, I doubt she'll be laughing for long. Biden left such a royal mess behind him, there's no fixing it. It'll be shoveling sh#t all day just to stay afloat.
In fresh news it is rumoured that the Chinese government has offered a peace plan to the warring factions in DC, no preconditions, no prior cessation, no laying down of arms
I assume that what will finally kill off western fuel for this debacle will be the awesome new uplift given to Israel by the demise of the Biden regime and the promise of a tide of zionist republican nut jobs being waved into office. Hence Netanyahu's victory parade around the floor of congress.
A republican win in November will create such a mess of an escalatory problem throughout the ME-Pacific that Ukraine will be shovelled off for crippled old europe to manage with its 'NATO' INO machinery vomiting out the has-beens of the MIC all over its shrinking bit of the continent. The US has already got cold feet over the latest 'loan' to Ukraine that the EU was supposed to be underwriting until EU members gave that the finger, while existing Ukrainian debt-promise of future riches, is going belly up all over the western controlled corner of the financial planet.....
This war is over- bar the fighting (!), which it seems will have to be ground into the dirt by Russians pushing right up to NATO borders.
Russia will then start the next phase, not yet discussed at all in the west because it is too frightening for anyone to say it out loud (although Macron blurted it out and was shut up awhile back when he was trying to persuade NATO to go all in with troops) and it is not a Russian invasion of Berlin, Paris and London but a massive economic squeeze on old europe by Russia and its allies.
Payback time, just not coming in the direction the west intended. So much for that wittering on about never giving Russia its frozen assets back.
A DJT win in November, w/ commensurate Republican gains down-ballot, will give the new admin a mandate to consolidate time/attention/materiel in ME escalations, particularly w/ an eye toward provoking Iran, sans OTAN.
Ukraine was Joe's Project. Jettisoning OTAN signals an end. "Jettisoning OTAN" means relegating it to Junior Varsity bench-warmer status: Hey, OTAN, hand me a towel & a Gatorade. Do me a solid, eh? Here's Ukraine. It's yours now
A war against Iran offers the U.S. so much more, esp w/ an ally like Israel--a fellow democracy--@ its side. Geography serves conveniently in favor of this: Iran is in the neighborhood already of a ragingly hot war. For the U.S. & the MIC it's a two-fer
There is no way forward for Ukraine with the west, so you have to wonder what the Ukkies are really up to out there talking economics with China under cover of 'peace'.
Ukraine is about as pragmatic a nation as you will ever find, and it knows it has scraped the western barrel which is now rotting away right under its nose.
The king is dead. long live the new king. But it won't be Trump or KH because Ukraine knows that whoever wins in November the US has exhausted its Ukraine attention span. Time for new friends and allies. And europe thought it was exploiting Ukraine!
Imagine fighting a war against Russia through Ukraine and finding out that a vitalised Russia-China is actually fighting YOU through Ukraine, not militarily- that hors d'oeuvres is over, and they are not so daft- But economically. And winning.
Karma. It was the west's chosen weapon in this gladiatorial game (as in the shock and awe sanctions that were supposed to smother the military combat before it really kicked off and make it irrelevant. that went well. Now the economics weapon which was really the west's greatest fear all the time, has been seized and is in the process of being returned with knobs on- as in rearmed to far greater kill capacity.
So willing to scare-monger the populace over Russia as a nuclear threat, and to blind citizens to any threat other than a nuclear one, Europe never designed a "duck & cover" move that could shield an economy in freefall the way schoolchildren during the Cold War defended against nuclear fallout by crouching under desks.
Shockingly, "a vitalised Russia-China is actually fighting [Europe] through Ukraine,"as you succinctly put it. They stared into the abyss, they thought they knew the abyss & now the abyss has opened its jaws for them
They never did still do not have a clue - it's almost a pleasure
But you are unfair to KK, remember her 600 bunkers along the Esstie border which was going to protect 'us' from a Russian invasion or at least so scare the Russians that they go home?
$600m she wanted from the EU for these mini bunkers with cheese
KK also thinks, and here you'll have to admit she's been proven right time and again - that even if all that happens is that she says something will happen, still the RF drop everything and flee
Cuboid concrete cellars built into the ground w/ a partially covered firing trench running perpendicular to the entrance, equipped w/ explosive devices & electronic sensors to protect against Russia's artillery shells.
Serious question: what cheese pairs best w/ being "wiped off the map"?
"But you are unfair to KK, remember her 600 bunkers along the Esstie border which was going to protect 'us' from a Russian invasion or at least so scare the Russians that they go home?"
Europe wasn't prepared for the US to stab them in the back. 1st economically when Powell freed US from libor & aggressively raised interest rates. Then with nordstream.
If the Europeans are that collectively stupid and abjectly subservient to such a patently untrustworthy and fickle 'ally', perhaps it is best that they face the inevitable Darwin Award such moronic and short sighted policy demands. Europe's security cannot be guaranteed without the US umbrella, if you provoke Russia, and that has been NATOs intention all along.
There's no way forward for Ukraine with the gangland
China peace plans work
And relieve those incompetents in the current faction of the current USNATOEU régimes of a problem they can not and do not wish to solve
See RF reconstruction toute seule in the Donbass to get a preview- This is indeed high level socialist market economy, also whole process people's democracy
I could not cope with more than one idea at a time. I agree that it is actually looking more likely, now, that the dems will take it. Then we have the cheery prospect that both Ukraine and Israel get thrown under the bus, probably the best outcome for world peace.
For all their foulness, the Dems did well when half of the Dems in the Senate and the House boycotted Netanyahu's speech. They refused to be in the same room with that war criminal. Good for them. It was one of the very rare times it felt good to praise Nancy Pelosi.
It's a real stain on their party that so few in the GOP boycotted Netanyahu.
Maybe - but the Dems filled their seats with hired hands who cheered on the Israeli very vigourously - how many Amercians, or RoW know that those cheering were majorly not Congressmen/women, but cheerleaders bought and paid?
Besides wasn't that the point? Everyone 'wins': the Dems get to virtue display with the consequence that the Israeil appears better supported- this is not a good look for US gvmt credibility
1. Trump will not leave Ukraine or the War On Russia. Call him "Putin puppet!" and he will fold. As we saw many times from 2016-2020, Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
2. While Trump is even more enthusiastic than Team D for the War On Palestine, A President Harris will do whatever the donors wish.
What kind of reputations are we sending to the world? Our banks holds assets from many people and many countries; it is obviously 1- illegal for a bank to confiscate the funds of others?
2- it is also illegal to print moneys to dilute the values of the dollars.
imagine starting a negotiation between Antante and Central Axis powers in the midst of the First World war.
A. It is a stalemate.
B. Yes, but it is an attrition war, and until total power of the society is exhausted, we do not really know who is the winner.
And after so many deaths, casualties, wounded, orphaned, amputees, we are not ready to accept ceasefire at current frontline. We may still end up winning.
A. But you may also lose. You don't know whether US is going to join the war
Now imagine the discussion in 2024.
UA. It is a stalemate. You attacked first and have not beaten us.
RF. No, it is not, it is attrition war, and you are losing. The rate of destruction of your combat forces is greater than your combat forces generating power.
UA. But if NATO joins we will be stronger than you.
RF. NATO will not join. Only three more months until US election. Not enough time to have anything US decides today have an impact on the battlefield before November 5. Except for bluffing. But we are tired of bluffing, and we'll not even discuss bluffing.
NATO cannot join without US, US cannot join before the elections, that would guarantee election defeat. US cannot join after the election, whoever wins. Trump can contemplate bluffing, but the area of bluffing is small, before one enters nuclear war.
IF US joins directly, RF can guarantee both high number of US casualties, and nuclear escalation.
It will be either a bluff called, or a nuclear total war between US and Russia, MAD.
UA. You cannot make us neutral. We will join NATO.
RF. then there is no ceasefire
For the next six months, and maybe even longer, the key is in patience. UA has shown multiple times ready to sacrifice forces, men, lives for psychological, political effect. But it has payed off in 300 billion US dollars worth of support, and in an enhanced ability to keep the frontline steady. Only problem, big and growing, the pool of available manpower is drying up, and corruption is pushing people away from the army.
In a sense who is the first to lose patience will lose the war.
Russia is under pressure to do something before the US elections
Ukraine is under pressure to keep holding the line until negotiations start. Using primarily conscripted brigades, shortens the life expectance on the front for the newly conscripted, goes against mobilization effort. Using more experienced, nationalistic brigades, runs the risk of a coup - before going down in heroic fight someone will have time, energy to settle accounts with Kiev.
UA badly needs ceasefire, to reequip, refit, and in a year or two restart war.
Russia does not need territory, is ready for a ceasefire, if it guarantees end of conflict, for good, a durable agreement.
That is exactly what Putin offered as a peace proposal.
Give up on NATO; publicly, and finally in a document to be signed by UA, NATO; US,
This is not acceptable to any US government.
It will be Dnieper river, after two more years of war. Fate of Odessa, and Kiev still unclear.
Not because Putin or Russia cannot give it up, they are ready to accept Odessa, Harkov, Kiev as Ukraine if only Ukraine would remain neutral, but because US cannot give up on NATO, so end result will be smaller Ukraine, in NATO.
Zelensky will not be endangered, as he will not negotiate, another half million Ukrainians soldiers will die.
Now, imagine, if Simplicius and simple commenters on Simplicius substack, can describe the situation, and logical, inevitable development that will follow how much clearer/more clear the insight of Mr Wang Yi, or Pope's envoy is.
Orban is correct, war will get worse, but not worse enough for Kiev to give up, not worse enough for UK/NATO to give up, so US president will find himself in a situation where it will be difficult to refuse helping brave freedom fighters, i.e. escalate further, and either have his bluff called, or enter World War 3.
However, US president can extricate himself from media pressure by giving the steering wheel to Europe. Ukraine supported by Europe might be more ready to negotiate.
And then, it will be of interest to hear what China has to say.
The “peace” overtures have more to do with US politics than the state of the AFU (although that does play a part). Let’s see how things play out in the US.
They’ve pivoted to Kamala completely pushing out fake polls that she’s on par le beating Trump. How is it that she was less popular than Biden as a vice president, who was less popular than Trump, but now running for president she’s more popular than both?
Yeah, the UK MSM has been widely citing the fixed [sole] poll as evidence of a surge of support for Harris and reporting that she and her policies ared hugely popular in the USA and with voters. Biden has been memory holed. I await another 4am election night uplift in the count for KH when the boxes of postal votes are opened.
The plan is to fake the polls and give out the impression that Harris is neck and neck with Trump. That means that massive cheating and fraud will be more believable for boobus americanus.
Plus equally fake stories about how she'll be "tough on Netanyhu". Yeah right. Though it's an indication about what actual public sentiment is, they're terrified of low turnout, and that Dem leadership recognizes that spinning that fairytale is a must have for even a chance to get her elected
Bibi is proposing an OTAN-like security bloc for the ME, anchored by Israel & the U.S.--to be called the Abraham Alliance. He cites the U.S./UK/IDF defense against Iran's missile retaliation on the night of 14 April as an example of this cooperation: "Our enemies are your enemies. Our fight is your fight. Our victories will be your victories."
A new release of the children's paint-by-numbers tragicomedic slasher pic known as American Imperialistic Adventures in the ME coming in January 2025
This is "a sign that U.S. government and tech giants cannot control where their technology goes," per the nytimes article: "Even as the West sought to cut off access to semiconductors through trade restrictions, Russia established such a robust parallel supply chain that it imported almost the same number of critical chips in the last 3 months of 2023 [after the trade sanctions] that it did in the same period of 2021 [before the trade sanctions]"
Not only has the West lost control of the war narrative but it has lost control of wartime chips
Thanks - you actually read the article, quel courage
I understand that the 28mm plus or whatever chips needed for military appliances the RF can make good enough as anyone, as can Aansar Allah, ships off the China Sea, chop shops in Tashkent, Yakutia and points south, even in darkest Africa....
But at least the NY has cottoned on - in any case the bad here is the Xi's not the VVP's for ignoring our sanctions
Useful Idiots turn up in Hong Kong apartment hi-rises as sure as they do in leafy Toronto suburbs
Soon we might all be the "publicly listed director" of illicit chip-exporting companies, forced to explain ourselves on a lazy summer afternoon to intrepid nytimes reporters
Bless your righteous tongue Simplicius. Making the truth available for those that still have functioning eyes ears and minds is integral in the battle against evil.
I just saw a documentary on WWI. The Ukraine war has become a rerun of that war. Strategically and tactically. The battle fields with the trenches look the same along with the horrendous loss of life as men swarm over the devastated landscape.
I'm a boomer. Retired Army. I'll be celebrating when NATO falls. Quit lumping groups of people together. People are individuals, NOT groups, who think in lock-step. Many of my former brothers in arms feel the same way. We're sick of what our country has become... Chip
Ditto here ... Canadian Air Force. If i was a younger man, I might put a uniform back on .... a Russian one.
I'm with you. If I were a younger man, I would move to Russia right now! Chip
Veteran here as well. I'd be heading due East. The US has become a shit-whole. Too old to do it now.
1 in 7 Russians gave their lives fighting the NAZIs and here we are fucking them over. What a fucking disgrace.
Another thing is too, if I had a really drunk and stupid friend at a bar who was going to go and assault a bouncer I knew would beat my friend into a bloody pulp, I'd stop him from doing something so stupid. To be pro Ukraine we are now supposed to encourage them to go fight a military that will surely trample them to death or we are accused of being anti Ukraine. I often wonder if this isn't some cynical plan to destroy Ukraine for some purpose. Maybe the Zios in DC thought it was a clever way to rid the country of it's NAZIs.
It's a money laundering op. On top of that, it has been a NEOCON plan for decades since the fall of the USSR to destroy Russia and break it into five or six different countries. The west (USSA) cannot stand to be a "partner". It wants total power and control over the world. And that USSA, is controlled 100% by Israel and their PAC's... Chip
Sounds about right. I'm quite up also on what is going on in the world of oil, on account of investments and a chance audience with Admiral William Crowe (Reagan's Defense Chief). Russia had just convinced the Kurds to cast their lot with Russia,,, and a short while later Baghdad also. China in the meantime coopted Iran into their sphere of oil deals. This all happened a couple of years before the USA announced they wanted Ukraine in NATO. I think it was to tie Russian forces up so the USA could go back into Iraq and simultaneously Iran and not worry about Russia helping. Russia has already told Assad in Syria, they will bail him out, once they are done with Ukraine so ya, the Israelis are also fucking furious.
Not many people know that Russian and Chinese allied forces have fire control over the Persian Gulf now. Crowe told me, a few short months after the 2nd Iraq invasions "If we lost the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf, we would see Depression Era economic conditions across the west, in a matter of months. " He went on to say that the USA knows Saddam has no WMDs and it was all about oil. Nato is in a really bad situation with oil control now. They appear to have even lost Saudi Arabia now.
Likewise, yet I only spent a few years as a reservist in armoured infantry in 1970s. I joined specifically to get military training, not to fight for the Bankers that have long owned the British Government but to fight for humanity against these Bankster's in the worldwide Civil War that WWIII will ultimately be. Over the subsequent years I had thought that perhaps it might not happen in my life time, sadly it looks like I was over optimistic.
The Ukrainians never had a chance given the demographic and economic overmatch. Once the sanctions failed USUK could have tapered off. Instead they keep doubling down. Where does this end without the total humiliation of NATO or a World War?
Total humiliation of NATO it is then.
you badly misunderstand NATO (or more precisely, the heads of state of NATO members) to just make up new narratives on the fly. Washington DC could be invaded by Bangladeshi university students and they'd spin it as a win for democracy. There are never any losses - only new narratives.
Yep.... Only perception matters here in the US, not reality.
it is false reality for the Masses! Who thought we'd see the day when the Dem party was busy spinning a tale that the president isn't THAT important -- a lot of people can run the government, you just don't worry your pretty little heads about that! Or where the voters of one party have ZERO say in who runs as their presidential nominee? Or where the incumbent (incompetent) was really installed and not elected, due to massive fraud in key cities? Or where that junta threw people into jail willy nilly for a protest led astray by FBI plants? I could not have imagined and would have rejected it all as insane fantasy. It is.
Finally someone talking about perception! Good!
The only reality allowed in the US are strictly scripted reality shows.
Reality will bite them in the ass someday.
Us. Will bite us in the ass. I'm an American. I hate what my country has become.
Perhaps they can write the narrative of having their necks stretched from being hanged is far superior to a bathhouse colon cleansing.
Ultimately the Bankster's play all sides in their genocidal war against wholesome humanity. They always play from the perspective of multiple paths of profit from their crimes against humanity, the harm done ito their betters is for these demons, the most rewarding profit.
"The war is not meant to be won; it is meant to be continuous"
~1984
If something cannot go on forever, it will eventually stop. Unfortunately, the leaders of Modern Gomorrah lack the foresight to do anything except eventually suffer an ignominious end.
The China peace plan will contain enough re construction to let NATO & EU heave sighs of relief
They are dying (secretly dying) for someone to come along and take the burden off of their hands
Then they can get back to their priority mission - stealing their own blind
For once, you could be right. If China is prepared to build up, what remains of Ukraine, then West could be relieved. But China never does anything without a string. And here we have Blackrock/Vanguard&Co watering their mouths over Ukrainian assets. And how much is already sold out or promised as financial guarantee? I do not believe that China will be the peacebroker, US will not allow it.
agree
I'm told Blackrock already has 40% of West Ukraine's arable land bought and paid for. If so perhaps it would be a lever? Russia threatens to take it simply to deny it to them unless they participate in a peace and resolution sometime soon?
I sincerely hope the Russian understand what is at stake. They have to take as large chunk of Ukraine as possible. Then they can trade land for sanctions lifted and their assets un-freezed.
No. The Slavic land should never be given to talmudists.
There may be lands/oblasts that they "identify" as Ukrainian and have no cultural connection to Russia either linguistically or culturally. Instead of imposing an occupation, it is smarter to trade for something else. Whether or not Larry Fink is a Talmudist I know nothing about. He is a self-confessed democrat according to his own information.
Bought and paid for by who's money, the tax payers?
Shareholders. Pensionsfund. They will all lose money.
? told by who?
by the second shooter? this is common gossip in your street?
This is very low level conspiracy chitchat
If you have any interest at all in research and truth and are not wholly engrossed in making gratuitous derogatory comments without basis you might find this of interest. Suit yourself: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/kyiv-has-sold-ukraine-to-blackrock-russia-lambasts-ukraine-for-taking-support-from-us/videoshow/106731755.cms?from=mdr
If you have any evidence show it - records of contracts, Blackrock shareholder meetings, multiple reports from reliable journalism - you will find nothing for this Blackrock propaganda is common conspiracy theory in the west, a diversionary tactic – you have noticed with all the clownshows around the presidents that DC loves diversionary
All western news reports are of an investment fund, an unsuccessful one at that, and of JP Morgan's involvement with raising sovereign debt
Land Sales to foreigners are forbidden under Ukraine law, anything by way of waivers the current régime does will be reversed, and are very unpopular with the Ukraine famers and people, and of course will be reversed with Russian victory
Blackrock is anything but foolish enough to invest in such activity
If you are looking for illegal and corrupt US corporate exploitation look into the Cargills Carlyles Monsanto grip on the Ukrainian farms practices and grain trade --the successful conversion of farmlands to GM ind ag norms, and the obtention of EU waivers for import into the EU, to the great expense of Eastern European farmers especially - who have frequently blocked imports, gone on strike, invaded Brussels EU headquarters etc
These grains are treated as being unfit for human consumption by many countries, and barely good enough for animal feed
This destruction of Ukrainian farmer economy and lives, along with many European, is indeed a scandal - reported on but given little attention in the west, as this serves your ruling class interests
You should concentrate on this, as opposed to fantasy conspiracy theories without foundation nor consequence
- if you think that everything the RF gvmt asserts is certainly true then you are not investigating correctly
Comment only when you have done so
Oh, my....wouldn't it be a *shame* that the land stolen by Blackrock was peppered with expended DU munitions?
I am NOT sure that US has that much import any more.
Did the US "allow" China to broker the Saudi/Iran rapprochement? Or did Trump blow that leverage with the Sulemaini assassination, which was done during a diplomatic mission?
Was Trump really responsible for that or was his advisor, Pompeo the guy who really ordered the take out? Or perhaps it was Netanyahu who professes to run the USA.
I think Trump loves to show of ”strength”. He gave green light.
Here's how I see it. Trump was being hounded and pounded by a lot of media fabrications, deep state chicanery and GOPe betrayals. Show of strength, perhaps, likely egged on by those inside his party like Pompeo and his son-in-law. I hardly think it compares to Clinton bombing the Serbs, or Bush I and II taking us into wars in the middle east. Most believe the overthrow of Mohammad Mossadegh was a bigger deal as it allowed the West to steal Iranian oil and put the Shah in power leading to the 1979 hostage crisis and perpetual enmity of the Iranians.
Yes, Trump was really 'responsible' for that, although it shivers me timbers to consider someone with so little understanding of geopolitics having that much murderous power. Im surprised the Iranians didnt lose their minds over that one.
The Soleimani Hit was highly illegal and immoral; the guy was def no angel, but whacking people on diplomatic missions sets a very dangerous precedent.
US dont like China to play any role other than a place for cheap production. The Saudi/Iran deal was unwelcome but then you had 7th oct and war between Israel and Hamas/Hisbollah with support from Saudi enemy Iran/Yemen. So I think they are not so friendly anymore. On the other hand Saudi scrapped the agreement with Israel that otherwise would have been signed.
But that is the very crux of what is developing: the US is increasingly being sidelined and flanked by multi-polar players who delight in successfully pulling off deals the US "doesn't like", including a fresh one with the Palestinians and a developing one with Ukraine. Who knows what else is in the works?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has toppled one big, fat domino - can you hear the clicks accelerating?
Yes. I am delighted and horrified. Russia deserves a better role than the cold war villain and China cannot upset the US. If America can learn some humility and stop calling itself exceptional superhumans and meddling in everyone else's affairs, we could have a better world. The horror lies in whether they can do it without violence.
I think the big boys of the war profiteering type have already put in their bids, and probably even bought their shares of Ukraine, but as Russia will be the Kiev protector, not NATO, perhaps some Russian companies can get in on this. These bumpkins from west Ukraine were so rotten, offering up their population as a sacrifice to their own narrow ambitions that were so at odds with Ukraine's interests. And reaping all sorts of rewards, Lord only knows.
If NATO was a military alliance capable of fighting a large scale ground war in Europe, then yes we'd already be in full blown war with Russia with boots on the ground. But thankfully, NATO is incapable of doing anything except fighting low intensity conflicts against lesser peers. So no, there will be no world war at least not in the foreseeable future. In order to do that you need to completely overhaul the entire corrupt and inefficient military industrial complex of the West. But the grift that has been going on with NATO favors a lot of money changing hands for very little or nothing at all. Eastern Ukraine will be absorbed into Russia and the western part will become a client state of Moscow, fully integrated into the Eurasian economic block. Russia cannot allow this tumor to yet fester again and become an existential threat to the Russian State.
Yes, if this were boxing, the Ukrainians would have thrown in the towel long ago...
They did, but the globalists threw the towel right back.
Blinken-Sullivan, and others in their mold, only have two moves in their repertroire : (1) doubling down (2) conciliatory-verbal-headfake shortly followed by a contradictory repeat provocation ...
So it's to be expected. But eventually, like years too late, even they must reckon with reality. Ukraine goes the way of many other cold war proxies who came before it.
My friend, you and I would immediately go to jail if the government discovered we are PRINTING DOLLARS. On the other hand our focking government prints trillions to finance their stupid Khazarian wars. The printed fiat money simply dilute the moneys in our pockts...i e theft from the people.
If the losers in DC had limited budget, they would quickly seek peace. Trump printed 2 trillion to bribe doctors and hospitals during the scamdemic. Biden printed 4 trillions to feed the beasts in Israel and Ukraine. The next POS ruler will have to print 10 trillions to fock around with Taiwan?...
Here is an interesting piece from early on in the conflcit, froma Ukrainian point of view-not pro Z. https://jacobin.com/2022/02/us-russia-nato-donbass-maidan-minsk-war
No, total humiliation is actually a positive scenario, imo they are far beyond the point where they could get away with just a humiliation.
And yet peace talks are breaking out in China
‘Ukraine presses China to help seek end war with Russia’
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/business/ukraine-kuleba-china-russia-war.html
‘Ukraine highly appreciates China’s positive role in promoting peace, says Ukrainian FM’
‘According to a press release on China-Ukraine foreign ministers' talks, Kuleba said the Ukrainian side attaches importance to China's opinions and has carefully studied six common understandings jointly outlined by China and Brazil for a political resolution of the Ukraine crisis.’
Despite their best attempts to be snarky, one can see the editors gnawing at the original text, the NYT has to take and to present this initiative seriously
https://www.wsj.com/world/china-casts-itself-as-peacemaker-in-first-high-level-talks-with-ukraine-since-russias-invasion-1ba6a906
WSJ better succeeds with the China authoritarian hypocrite friend of Russia snark
Given China’s record in the brokering of peace deals which previously their Government had not been aware of had spent generations working against and were totally unprepared for, Iran-SA, Palestine
Someone’s going to have find the best way for the US ruling class to back out of this war without losing too much face, may as well be China – this will be the first step to making the best deal they can make regarding business with China
Annexe quotes and links
https://english.news.cn/20240724/78cce408408f4f83ab0f4100f9cab450/c.html#:~:text=China%20believes%20that%20all%20conflicts,have%20shown%20willingness%20for%20negotiations.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202407/24/WS66a0bf81a31095c51c50fbad.html
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202407/t20240724_11459651.html
Reuters: Foreign Minister Wang Yi today held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart in Guangzhou, according to sources. Are you able to provide any further information on what was discussed?
Mao Ning: This morning, Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Guangzhou.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted that China and Ukraine are friends to each other. Everything that stands out in bilateral exchanges is about friendship and cooperation. The two countries established a strategic partnership more than a decade ago, and have respected each other and treated each other as equals. Mutually beneficial cooperation has made steady headway. The presidents of our two countries stressed the importance to view and envision bilateral relations from a long-term perspective, and make sure that bilateral relations and cooperation will keep moving forward. We need to follow this guidance, maintain communication and exchanges, enhance mutual trust, carry forward our traditional friendship, promote the people-to-people bond, and achieve sound and steady growth of China-Ukraine relations.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China ushered in a new journey of comprehensively deepening reform. China’s all-round modernization endeavor will bring new opportunities to people from all countries. Ukraine is one of the first countries to support and participate in Belt and Road cooperation. In recent years, China has remained Ukraine’s largest trading partner and the largest exporter of agricultural products. In the first half of this year, our bilateral trade has shown a momentum of rapid growth, demonstrating the space and potential of bilateral cooperation. The two sides need to give full play to cooperation mechanisms between the two countries and enhance practical cooperation in various fields. China will continue to increase food imports from Ukraine and work together to keep logistics corridors open and ensure global food security. Foreign Minister Wang thanked the Ukrainian side for the help it provided for the evacuation of Chinese nationals, especially the Chinese students in Ukraine, when the conflict broke out. He also expressed the hope that Ukraine will continue to work effectively to keep Chinese personnel and institutions safe in Ukraine.
The two foreign ministers exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis. Foreign Minister Wang noted that the Ukraine crisis has entered its third year, the conflict continues and there is the risk of escalation and spillover. China remains firmly committed to working for a political settlement of the crisis. President Xi Jinping laid out four principles which provide the fundamental guidance for seeking a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. On this basis, China and Brazil jointly issued six common understandings that include the three principles for deescalating the conflict, the three elements for peace talks and the three appeals on humanitarian protection. The common understandings also highlight the need to prevent nuclear risks and protect the stability of industrial and supply chains. The common understandings represent the broadest common ground of the international community and have been widely supported and endorsed. China believes that all conflicts ultimately have to be resolved at the negotiating table, and the solutions to any dispute can only be found through political means. Recently, both Ukraine and Russia have expressed to varying degrees the willingness to negotiate. Although the conditions and timing are not yet ripe, we support all efforts conducive to peace and will continue to play a constructive role to enable a ceasefire and resume the peace talks. China cares about the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and will continue to provide humanitarian aid supplies.
Foreign Minister Kuleba said that China is a great country. China and Ukraine are each other’s strategic partners and important economic and trade partners. Ukraine supports China’s position on the Taiwan question and will remain committed to one China. Ukraine hopes to work with China to implement the important common understandings between the two presidents, cement political mutual trust, activate cooperation in such areas as trade and agriculture, and strengthen subnational and sister-cities exchanges. Ukraine highly appreciates China’s active and constructive role to promote peace and uphold the international order. Ukraine attaches importance to China’s views, and has looked closely at the six common understandings issued by China and Brazil on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. Ukraine is willing and ready to have dialogue and negotiation with Russia. And of course, negotiations should be rational, substantive and aimed at achieving just and lasting peace.
While Kuleba met w/ Wang Yi in China, the pope's foreign minister--yes, the Holy See has a foreign minister--met w/ the Usurper of Kiev & told him that a Peace Formula which does not include Russia's perspective, concerns & realities is [paraphrasing] delusional
Not a co incidence!
All the forces are aligned then, Allah be praised
China does not bandy around Peace Plans without a serious plan to get them done- and surely the preliminary work on the various organisations long ago has been in place, BRICS, SCO and so on
yes, and they have Papal Nuncios who are the Vatican's ambassadors to important countries. And the one man I met, a Frenchman, was an urbane, witty, intelligent man who was great company at a dinner table.
meaningless prattle
You are not suggesting the Chinese indulge in meaningless prattle I hope
Read the documents, please
SA Iran pp is not meaningless nor prattle -
I am absolutely suggesting that. None of that means much in terms of ending that stupid ass war.
Why do you think and say that - such a statement surely requires explantion and dignified arguments
Do you mean that China has not got what it takes to....
Or that RF has not? Or that the Ukraine will resist?
How else will the war ever end?
If you listen to the US hired hands, not an easy task and I do not blame you if you do not, they will not agree to peace, even tho' they are backing out and down
It is fairly clear that the RF recognises they need allies, the whole BRICS SCO JDeclaration is meaningless otherwise
If these allies can not do peace, who can? or who can prevent them?
Only Russia and NATO (through EU and US diplomats) can negotiate an end to this war. There is absolutely no benefit to Russia in negotiating now. I sense that Zelensky is growing desperate for negotiations and some kind of cease fire. Russia will not agree to a cease fire, even during negotiations. Based on experience with NATO, that is wise. Also, I seriously doubt the hard core Russian hating nazis and NATO types around Zelensky will let him negotiate anything. If they sense he's actually serious about conceding large territories, they'll kill him and call it a Russian assassination.
Let the humiliation begin...
Gerrard, this is an interesting aspect of it, I have seen similar comments elsewhere. But what does it really mean?? Zelensky has allegedly been threatened multiple times by the neo-Nazis not to even think about peace if he values his life.
China's 12-point peace plan is still on the table but has not moved from there, other than the drawer under the table top.
So, the Ukie foreign minister went to Beijing to ask for help with peace but anything positive coming out of that is negative for Z and the West. No?
Why should peace be so negative? Who cares about Z? Why so worried about the régimes?
It's not so much the Ukrainian going to China which is notable, it is the China saying they'll help out which is notable
You may have observed that the westerners have always been surprised at China's negotiated peace plans - when you think you have a vested interest in war, this would be an expected reaction
They dismissed the previous attempt as ....but China continued nonetheless - contacts not only with RF but Ukraine, but all over the region
But nobody who has lived through a war wishes for it to continue until the end of time
Your focus is on the corrupt régimes in DC and Kiev, or the factions currently in control (a word of not much use in DC)
There are other sources of power than Z or DC or Brussels capable of negotiating - and in fact USEU factions want nothing better than to be rid of this very expensive holocaust
I only hope that China can hope to broker a deal. The Kremlin must be very wary of the US/UK How does China and Russia, mostly Russia make sure they can remove US influence from Ukraine. How do they ensure neutrality? We know the US will just break every agreement whether it is on paper or not?
Most people from the US have never experienced anything even close to war, that is why my fellow Americans are the absolute worst people to have a conversation about ending a war. For decades, the rich in the US had plenty of poor white and black and spanish kids they could send around the world to die for them.
The RV signed a Joint Declaration with Russia - they are allies
Why should RF be 'wary of USUK' except to trust them no futher than they can throw them
Why should any plans involve the US EU?
Malign and decrepit factions (as per DC) are eliminated by the coherent imposition of rational reconstruction
What would the USEU do if....? Bomb Kiev? and how?
The current stupidity in DC has shown even the Americans that they can not govern even themselves
The Kremlin should be wary of the US and UK.
However, Russia has signaled that they remain open to a Minsk-3, even if they do not call it that. You'd think they'd learn. I suspect the reason that they do not is because Russia doesn't want this war, they do not want to make war on their bretheren, They do not want to end the West, but to join it, just not as vassals.
Same reason the Americans keep selling out their Kurdish allies, and yet the Kurds keep on coming back for more.
It's just an act of courtesy from Russia, nothing more. They are not considering any ceasefire, only full capitulation from Ukraine and its sponsors. Which won't happen. Show must go on.
The idea that Russia is considering negotiations is an "act of courtesy" is silly.
Having Elensky threatened means nothing to me. He has his bags packed and he has plenty of places to run and hide. The election in the US is when the big change comes to Ukraine. Elensky gone and one of the banderites will take charge and Russia will have to deal with an even worse criminal regime, the west is only holding on for the money they are stealing, everyday more and more billions are going to Ukraine courtesy of taxpayers in the west.
Let the west openly support the neo-Nazis.
They are openly doing it now.
Russia needs a non-NATO buffer zone. Nothing without an explicit definition of the buffer zone will go forward. I suspect what China is doing is beginning the process of verbalizing bare minimum terms and seeming like the Good Cop. In addition to a buffer zone, Russia will need protocols for when the agreement is void and what they will do. They will not accept a go-forward that relies on words provided by NATO knowing NATO has zero intention of fulfillment of any promises.
The RF needs a peace plan, yes – needs a buffer zone, no
What for- they got one up in the north? Does Belarus constitute a buffer zone?
What agreement is going to be void needing protocols in case? This sounds like NATO speak
You think NATO is a party to the peace plan? Who talked about NATO? No one
You think RF will understand let alone have to do with NATO, nor any faith in anything NATO says or does not say?
RF is bound by the JD with China, and for all other reasons imaginable, to play an active part in the solution
NATO has nothing to say, and nothing to say it with, arms army or anything approaching skillful leadership, as well as zero understanding of what is a solution
A PP requires listing the priorities and the essential participants – then the mutual trust as to how to keep the hounds to be kept at bay out of earshot (as per SA Iran) and as incapable as currently, that means squeezing the Ukraine and NATO dry
The world is changed – all those you mention will be relieved that someone has done the work that they can not do, with money they have not got
NATO will cease to exist after this war ends. Also Russia want to create new security system in Europe and peace negotiations should include this issue.
As far as Russia's goal in the conflict aka achieving physical security goes, I'd offer the following consideration for esteemed commentariat to ponder. It doesn't have to be Russia who suppresses them as long as they're passably suppressed. Therefore, if I was playing this scenario, I'd not only let Hungary grab Transcarpathia, but also make Poles advance into three Western Ukrainian provinces, pitting nationalists from both countries against each other. Western Ukraine's irregular terrorist potential will be diminished through incorporation into broader and actually functional statehood on one hand, and partially redirected against it on the other. Nuisance from NATO assets getting even closer is an acceptable trade-off, since it's not much and basically remains at the same threat level Russia is already facing in Tribaltics and Finland. Strategically though it seems to be the only sustainable option with the alternative of drowning in a toxic swamp of destroyed infrastructure and insurgent population eagerly supplied to commit acts of sabotage. Let them slit each other throats instead. After Poles win, institutionalized Western Ukraine will be bound by the same laws and circumstances as the rest of Poland.
As for Romania also having a bite, it may be unwise because the follow-up conflict around fate of Moldova and Transnistria is looming already. On the other hand, the more Ukraine will have disputes with, the merrier.
I'm no VVP, of course, but this should offer some fresh angle to the dilemma of "will/should Russia take all".
Romania isn't going to bite anything. They even trotted out poor old Basescu this week to urge Moldova to let Romanian troops on its soil to "protect" it against Russia, but it's just hot air.
The "fate" of Moldova and PMR is extremely clear - NOTHING will change. Everything you've ever heard to the contrary is scaremongering bullshit.
hopefully you are right. PMR would very much want the border with Russia (or at least Russian controlled territory). Same for Gagauz as Sandu is turning (has turned?) into another 2-bit fascist dictator (outlawing any other parties not agreeing with 'european choice', jailing opponents, etc). Not a good sign and sight , so much for 'democracy'. I do not think Gagauz and PMR would stay for long if regimes like Sandu are allowed to continue...
Romania will definitely play its part since it's being converted into the main NATO warehouse. Huge refurbished bases, new srategic rail network with Euro gauge extending to the East, airbase that's most likely to host Ukie F-16s and where the pilots train. Nearby in Moldavia army and secret services have Romanian liaisons to oversee operations, Transnistria is getting choked in a low-profile blockade and Gagauzia is politically oppressed. It's Ukraine 2.0, reserve pool of cannon fodder and new powder keg to spark. Before long there will be clashes and in ten years Romania has the most chances of being the country of the bloc that gets attacked directly.
Too bad for Romania then. There won't be kids gloves this time and Romania will be quickly obliterated with tactical nukes and massive bombing.
That's why Putin has to take Odessa.
My humble opinion, formed in conjunction with an esteemed colleague , is that peace talks have begun, I have alluded to such above
A high level socialist market system will be installed
These lines from the Explanation will be of help, I trust-
"'Furthermore, the draft also proposes measures such as establishing sound coordination
mechanisms for promoting security in neighboring regions; strengthening
mechanisms for countering foreign sanctions, interference, and long-arm
jurisdiction; and improving mechanisms for preventing and controlling trade
risks, improving the system of foreign-related laws and regulations and the
systems for enforcing the rule of law, and deepening law enforcement and
judicial cooperation with other countries. "
China is building many peace plan factories right now and increasing output in each one
It is rumoured they have made a proposal to the warring factions in DC
China is *ramping up* production in its Peace Plan Factories--achieving *overcapacity* as we speak
Yeah - one can object to cars, solar power, robots, 5G or is it 6 - there are offensive to our culture our democratic rights, and our need for permanent poverty and chaos
Let's see if they can turn down a tasty peace plan - it's free, comes with a package: BRI reconstruction, SCO membership, hospitals, high speed trains, men on Mars...
> Yeah - one can object to cars, solar power, robots, 5G
And also to peace plans ....
Only via insanity - there's not much point in relying on insanity as a plan
It's NATO's specialty
China already brokered (political) unity among the various Palestinian factions a few days ago - https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/al-mayadeen-obtains-palestinian-faction-s-crucial-beijing-de
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/07/24/palestinian-factions-sign-unity-deal-in-china/
This assumes that Hungary, Romania and Poland want these territories in the first place.
Speaking of Galicia, since I know that area well, it beggars belief that Poland would want a land populated with millions of fractious and well-armed Ukrainians who are not only by no stretch of the imagination Polish, but who also have committed genocide against Poles within living memory.
Oh, but of all them Poles want Kresy to be returned to them the most. And they understand that this century they'll have only one chance if any. That's why they have already arranged a mandate for their police to operate in Ukraine for example.
Revisionism in Poland is very powerful and memory of losses doesn't stop it. A memorial for the victims had to change places for like five times because local admin didn't want it. Besides, they created and corralled Ukrainian serfs to begin with, so it's possible to do again.
I am yet to meet such Poles, and I speak Polish and have spent more time in Poland than most.
Well, some of them lie piecemeal next to burned out Krab chassis, but there were quite a bunch in early 2020s and especially 2022 when it was discussed as one of the courses of action. I remember the marches signing "doroga do Lwova" and otherwise poorly hidden enthusiasm. Nowadays it might have waned, but not gone. Kresy is a great prize for Poland, I even wonder if they'd prefer Lwov more than Wilno.
Maybe some "skiny" talk like that, but I am yet to meet such Poles. Certianly not as a mass movement.
And in Polish, it would be "droga do Lwowa".
Yeah, don't mind my spelling. It was actually Polish army that received some incentive to get hopes up: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DkKs6Zf1uFI
There is a high chance of Poland being split again between neighbouring countries in case it tried again something stupid.
It feels like this is their favourite thing to do. Favourite game.
Unlikely, nobody needs Poland but Poles. Especially since they drove everyone else away or under. If push comes to shove, it's more likely to be a crater there. That said, Poland also has a history of succesful land acquisition, like that Czech piece they snatched together with Hitler. Not to mention the very existence of Kresy Wschodnie or how they spell that.
And given that Poland succeeds Germany in the role of America's military bulwark in Europe, having materials and presence slowly transferred there, I'm not seeing anything happening to it but occasional annihilation in case of WW3.
My previous commentary was more like a joke than serious thought.
And I agree with you. Russia won't be playing nice with Poland as it's doing now with Ukraine.
Poland will be glassed immediately.
You've come for fresh info, insights and facts,
Updates & scuttlebutt; tasty analy-snacks?
If you yearn for a view beyond the thick fog,
And refuse to consume purile MSM smog;
Then kill your TV, so biased and pernicious,
And bask in the glow of the blog of Simplicius!
Here's "a view beyond the thick fog," courtesy of Sergei Lavrov before the UN Security Council on 17 July: "Just think back to what Antony Blinken had to say in an interview with CNN in February 2021 taking a question about what he thinks of the decision of the previous US administration to recognize the Syrian Golan Heights as part of Israel. The Secretary of State said, “Leaving aside the legalities of that question, as a practical matter, the Golan is very important to Israel’s security.”
Lavrov underscored the American Rules aspect of the rules-based order & how lawless the rules actually are: "The actions of the United States and its allies are hindering international cooperation and the creation of a more just world."
Lavrov, spitting truth before the UN like a boss, synchronizes his tactics w/ Wang Yi's during Kuleba's visit, the two foreign ministers squeezing pet hegemonic projects like Ukraine or Israel or someday Taiwan in a pincer move designed to kettle the prospect of protracted war in a cauldron of futility.
Anyone who still pays for cable and watch mainstream (right or left) is behind just as people who are paying for landlines telephone, or refuse to give up the horse and buggy? The Marxist/neocon Khazarians have been out in your face for a couple of decades. We will learn from each others! We don't need stink pravda of NY shitty.
Simplicius, what would happen if GFM Steyr stops providing spare parts for the radial forging/turning/milling machines like SXP-55 Russia uses to manufacture gun barrels? Say, Austria is forced to sanction/embargo Russia. Russian artillery advantage in the war stops
I would be very surprised if the Russians had not already considered this problem and have come up with a solution, should it occur.
I always turn to the Black Market when I can't source radial forging/turning/milling-machine spare parts locally
um... they'll just buy them from Kazakhstan. Or the UAE. Or Singapore. Or China. Or wherever. Same as they do with everything else.
those machines aren't magic. If something is crucial to your defense a way will be found to get it. GFM Steyr would have been making those machines because they saw a profit in it not because they were the only company who could possibly produce them.
USSR has ordered these machines in the 70s.
If they have not been able to reverse engineer them through the last 50 years, they are not going to magically be able to do it now and out of the blue.
Apparently these manufacturing tools machinery, "machines to build other machines", are only produced in Western Europe and to a lesser degree in Japan. There is no know-how on how to build them elsewhere. Not in Russia, not in China, not in the US. Now they come with computer-aided capabilities. There is an oligopoly of a few small companies worldwide on this small but crucial market.
Manufacturing of items people encounter in their daily life (household goods, cars, elevators...) has been allowed to move to China and the Third World. That's all lower-end, "downriver" manufacturing. The West is largely de-industrialised, but has retained control of higher-end manufacturing and "tools to make tools", so to speak. Other than computerised steelworking industrial machinery, top-of-the-line metrology devices, for instance, are produced in the UK by Renishaw.
Yes you can still build stuff without the special devices listed above, but it will be lower quality. Think Western vs Soviet block cars.
Then again even if these machines don't break down, Russia won't be able to expand its production line of barrels if needed, by other means other than doing the machining the old way with manual labour WW2 style. However, a part from the lower quality final product, at this point I don't know whether the quasi-artisanal skills required to do so have been retained or have gone lost. Probably they have.
i answered already - the entire 'story' is another hopium BS smoke screen.
and lastly, I think in this war we are seeing very clearly how well made mass produced things greatly overpower any 'special devices'. if each NATO tank is a unicorn that requires a team of babysitters to actually fight and has to spend 10X time in maintenance vs fighting, who cares about its 'specialness'? Same for artillery. Same for fighter planes, sorry F-16 can't land on airfields anymore they are not 'smooth enough' for them. what??
at certain point, the whole greatly overpriced unicorn BS is just that , BS. things need to work and work well enough. and be available in sufficient quality. one super artillery shell that only works if entire satellite constellation is above you and directing you will always lose to 100 'dumb' ,'stupid' guns from 1962 firing at you. You just die.
'quantity has a quality of its own' which is not precise transaction of 'переход количества в качество' but close enough.
you can mass produce barrels if you have the GFM Steyr milling gizmo.
If you don't, you'd have to do the milling manually, with specialised manpower you don't have, inevitably producing less barrels (the machine can do in ten minutes what would take tens of work/hour), and this lower quantity of barrels would also happen to be of inferior quality...
I do not think so however conversation is pointless - future will come and show us. I think you greatly overestimate 'Swiss/Germany quality and "traditions"' and greatly underestimate the Slavs. It was Slavs that flew and continue to fly into space (along with those uncultured Yankees that also somehow 'lower quality' than uberrace), there is German/Swiss spacecrafts? There is German space exploration program? There is German nuclear program (hint, it is Russian now globally with us in USA being distant second best and French further behind). Dont underestimate your neighbors, typically does not end well..
Really in this context, you should be extolling the virtues of Slavic clocks and watches because that's where advanced machine tooling shows.
Like I said, only in Japan they caught up a little when they did their big autarchic push in the first half of the 20th century.
Machine tooling is irrelevant in terms of monetary rewards, so civil companies don't enter the field. For military purposes ,worldwide it suffices to buy these machines from West Europe/Japan.
That's how the technological knowledge gap between Germany and the rest of the world has maintained itself for two centuries and into the foreseeable future
Good machines don't break. Only broken machines need spare parts. I used to work down the road from Steyr as a Millrite. Never heard of an "SXP-55" myself.
I believe you, there is no other way for Russia war effort to be sustainable otherwise.
But this was an order for spare parts of that machine Russia placed to Austria in April 2023:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-6_Sp4WAAEwJnh.jpg
hope it will last them long
They have other options. Martynov addressed this a few days ago.
What are those parts for ? I may not understand your original post. Surely they are not for metal working machines of any type !! I'm still waiting for an explanation as to what an "SXP-55" is ????? I take it, it is not a metal working machine but a firearm ?
that's the thing in figure 2 https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/doc_0000496800.pdf
Those are pretty blurry photos.
I took my year of pre-employment machining in 1979 and there was a new buzz happening in machining circles: It was called Computer Numerical Control (CNC) and it was said to be going to change machining fundamentally and that is what it did. I completed my apprenticeship choosing the military to finish my trade off. After realizing that machining was indeed a shitty trade, in pay and working conditions, I went back to College and got a diploma in electronics. I eventually ended up in Upper Austria working as a millrite down the road from Steyr.
Whatever these forging machines are, they were designed and built before the CNC revolution and they would not look or operate the same today. That explains why a Google search yielded no hits.
What I can tell you is that the Austrians and Germans are quite big on themselves and kept reminding me how superior they are, even after being beaten to a bloody pulp in WW2. Their egos survived. They aren't superior. They just have a different business model that allows them to build smaller quantities of better quality stuff. Think Mercedes compared to GM. One guy, for example was proudly showing me how thick the metal was on his german made sockets for his socket wrench. Of course it cost a lot more than an American or Jap built socket but how many of those do you see break , in any case ? They usually end up on the ground and rolled under a 20 ton machine. ... so what is the point of this higher quality expensive stuff ?
My question is, what on earth are the Russians doing that would require the bevel gears to burn out by the thousands ? I've worked on lots of machines and even the crappiest ones , running at full capacity, last decades before showing signs of wear. Gear 'hobbing' is tricky and highly accurate, BUT, with CNC it is done quite effortlessly and one doesn't actually need a CNC machine to do CNC machining. The stepper motor and microcontroller revolutionized the world, They are the heart and soul of CNC. You can convert standard old machine tools to CNC , with $75 in parts per axis. I'm not doubting you info but look at the dates on it. Think Adding Machines of the 1970's and what happened to them when the desk top computers or calculators came online. No comparison.
These orders must have been made in a panic as they sensed that Steyr was shutting down those lines so they warned their customers "Last call for bevel gears". The USSR was still on and the world looked a lot different then, all the more so in the Warsaw Pact and factories. Your info is just too out of date, I suspect.
Man I took everything from Simplicius' previous sitrep:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-71924-west-searches-for-new
you can see towards the middle there are colour photos of the SXP-55 still currently in use for barrel-making both in Russia and the US.
Don't think they use CNC to manufacture the gun barrels but certainly they do for more complex pieces shaped on other (Western/Japan made) machines.
For sure the Russians have the thing now working 24/7, and have more than 20 other similar machines bought at the time of the USSR for making all sorts of barrels as you can verify on Simplicius' previous post + anything they bought ever since.
I think the specifications for hardening, tempering(hot cold cycles) gun barrels have to go through to achieve a lifetime of a few thousand shootings are pretty extreme. Multiply by the number of machines Russians have available and that's how the need of spare parts can rise even for these sturdy machines.
Alexander Mercurious talked about it recently and quoted the source. Basically
- RU makes '10K barrels' a year (not 100)
- RU has tons of this equipment, both foreign and domestic made. A lot of equipment came for gas/oil exploration and exploitation/extraction industry. Same concept.
So this is another hopium 'RU only has missiles for one more strike, we swear' BS from the West to keep UA zombies fighting. We have seen (and heard) this before. Same results.
Do you really think 4th largest economy in the world, larger than Germany by a huge amount is going to rely on ANYTHING critical that is foreign, especially from hostile block (EU is undeniably hostile and aggressive)? the импортозамещение (literally import- replacing or switching to domestic sources) is now way over 10 years old ...
Yes I think so, there is no way to match German/Swiss precision tooling knowledge, accumulated in centuries.
You'd have to start now and see successes far away in the future, or produce barrels of inferior quality by yourself. The US is in the same bind, they use GFM Steyr equipment to build their arsenal.
At the moment, there seem to be no problems with accessing these machines, but there could be hurdles down the line for Russia, as confrontation with NATO steepens.
I think that is very arrogant point of view. there is nothing 'accumulated in centuries' that other nations (forget Russians or Indian, any nation with sufficient time and resources) cannot repeat or make better. unless you continue to improve, each day , every day ->, you get left behind. and now it would be very hard for German/Swiss to continue to improve as they essentially are satellites of block that is hostile to Global Majority (hint - 85% of the planet).
Japan more or less did emulate German machining techniques but after a century they are still inferior, though better than anyone else worldwide, think Swiss watches vs Casio.
No other country enters the race as on the civil side you'd try to crack into a small closed market in the hands of monopolists with exclusive know-how, which is a no-go.
On the military side you'd have to have a case like imperial Japan to start something government sponsored with a huge investment of resources, which doesn't happen in the contemporary world where war is frowned upon
I dunno Grand Seiko watches are as good as anything made in Switzerland, and cost considerably less.
You sound like you have a hard-on for germany. I've worked for german companies. They're nothing special, just germans,
Man maybe my watches analogy was not 100% fitting, but you get where I want to go.
(Then again, from the point of view of us consumers, these watches feel worth the same, but maybe under a microscope the difference would show. Perhaps the Swiss clock would last a few more centuries than the Seiko, what do we know?).
I have no particular hard on for Germany, although I was happy to see the West did not just simply surrender all its manufacturing potential to China for short term gains from cheaper labour.
What we use to think of when we visualise industrial output (cars, washing machines..) is just the tip of the iceberg. There are thousands of markets, like the machine tooling one, which are strategic and where we retain control. It's mainly the lower tech value-added chains that got outsourced (and yes, semiconductors...).
I bet the US has a grip as tight as the Germans, in other fields such as drilling or piping or mining equipment
BINGO !! I too worked for Germans and Austrian companies, in Europe and North America as a machinist and millrite. They have this enduring ego that two defeats in world wars was never able to put to bed. One of the main reasons they lost in WW2 was because of that ego. Their tanks they sent to war against Russia were in fact inferior and fell apart in battle. They believe that if a Mercedes is better than a Ford, then that means they are superior, but they miss the whole point of business models. The only thing they came close to the yanks in car making was the Volkswagon.
I've never even seen a german or austrian micrometer but that may be because they knew they'd never outperform on quality and price to a Japanese Mitutoyo, so they never bothered even trying to make them.
I quit my job for an Austrian company when all these huge machines they were building and shipping around the world were falling apart and customers were screaming at me, even though I had nothing to do with the design. I just got too embarrassed and ashamed to continue.
Give the Russians the same budgets and embargo free existence and they will make anything the Europeans make and just as good, now that the Bolshevics are dead and buried.
There is nothing very complicated in such technology. Do you think that Russia, a country that can build nuclear reactors and that is leader in nuclear technologies and also much ahead of Germany in space technologies, can't build a machine to make pipes?
neither can the US...
Well done to Putin's necromancer corps and their techpriests, when they figure out how to reanimate hruks as combat effective troops the defeat of Ukraine shall be set in stone.
Thank you for yet another comprehensive battfield analysis.
For the record, this summer has been extraordinarily hot and dry in Ukraine. So there's no excuse for an Abrams tank to have limited mobility allegedly due to wet terrain. I have no idea what happened, but I can assure you that mud was not involved.
I suppose somewhere Kamala Harris is laughing as she reads over her daily intel briefing on Ukraine...
If she's allowed any actual authority, I doubt she'll be laughing for long. Biden left such a royal mess behind him, there's no fixing it. It'll be shoveling sh#t all day just to stay afloat.
She doesn't read them. An aide will condense them into 6 or less bullet points.
Ditto for decisions, someone else will make them and she will read from the teleprompter.
6 or less? More than likely 3 or less!
:-)
S - thank you for returning to the real world
In fresh news it is rumoured that the Chinese government has offered a peace plan to the warring factions in DC, no preconditions, no prior cessation, no laying down of arms
I assume that what will finally kill off western fuel for this debacle will be the awesome new uplift given to Israel by the demise of the Biden regime and the promise of a tide of zionist republican nut jobs being waved into office. Hence Netanyahu's victory parade around the floor of congress.
A republican win in November will create such a mess of an escalatory problem throughout the ME-Pacific that Ukraine will be shovelled off for crippled old europe to manage with its 'NATO' INO machinery vomiting out the has-beens of the MIC all over its shrinking bit of the continent. The US has already got cold feet over the latest 'loan' to Ukraine that the EU was supposed to be underwriting until EU members gave that the finger, while existing Ukrainian debt-promise of future riches, is going belly up all over the western controlled corner of the financial planet.....
This war is over- bar the fighting (!), which it seems will have to be ground into the dirt by Russians pushing right up to NATO borders.
Russia will then start the next phase, not yet discussed at all in the west because it is too frightening for anyone to say it out loud (although Macron blurted it out and was shut up awhile back when he was trying to persuade NATO to go all in with troops) and it is not a Russian invasion of Berlin, Paris and London but a massive economic squeeze on old europe by Russia and its allies.
Payback time, just not coming in the direction the west intended. So much for that wittering on about never giving Russia its frozen assets back.
History is terse. The west overreached.
A DJT win in November, w/ commensurate Republican gains down-ballot, will give the new admin a mandate to consolidate time/attention/materiel in ME escalations, particularly w/ an eye toward provoking Iran, sans OTAN.
Ukraine was Joe's Project. Jettisoning OTAN signals an end. "Jettisoning OTAN" means relegating it to Junior Varsity bench-warmer status: Hey, OTAN, hand me a towel & a Gatorade. Do me a solid, eh? Here's Ukraine. It's yours now
A war against Iran offers the U.S. so much more, esp w/ an ally like Israel--a fellow democracy--@ its side. Geography serves conveniently in favor of this: Iran is in the neighborhood already of a ragingly hot war. For the U.S. & the MIC it's a two-fer
There is no way forward for Ukraine with the west, so you have to wonder what the Ukkies are really up to out there talking economics with China under cover of 'peace'.
Ukraine is about as pragmatic a nation as you will ever find, and it knows it has scraped the western barrel which is now rotting away right under its nose.
The king is dead. long live the new king. But it won't be Trump or KH because Ukraine knows that whoever wins in November the US has exhausted its Ukraine attention span. Time for new friends and allies. And europe thought it was exploiting Ukraine!
Imagine fighting a war against Russia through Ukraine and finding out that a vitalised Russia-China is actually fighting YOU through Ukraine, not militarily- that hors d'oeuvres is over, and they are not so daft- But economically. And winning.
Karma. It was the west's chosen weapon in this gladiatorial game (as in the shock and awe sanctions that were supposed to smother the military combat before it really kicked off and make it irrelevant. that went well. Now the economics weapon which was really the west's greatest fear all the time, has been seized and is in the process of being returned with knobs on- as in rearmed to far greater kill capacity.
So willing to scare-monger the populace over Russia as a nuclear threat, and to blind citizens to any threat other than a nuclear one, Europe never designed a "duck & cover" move that could shield an economy in freefall the way schoolchildren during the Cold War defended against nuclear fallout by crouching under desks.
Shockingly, "a vitalised Russia-China is actually fighting [Europe] through Ukraine,"as you succinctly put it. They stared into the abyss, they thought they knew the abyss & now the abyss has opened its jaws for them
Beautifully put, as usual.
They never did still do not have a clue - it's almost a pleasure
But you are unfair to KK, remember her 600 bunkers along the Esstie border which was going to protect 'us' from a Russian invasion or at least so scare the Russians that they go home?
$600m she wanted from the EU for these mini bunkers with cheese
KK also thinks, and here you'll have to admit she's been proven right time and again - that even if all that happens is that she says something will happen, still the RF drop everything and flee
Cuboid concrete cellars built into the ground w/ a partially covered firing trench running perpendicular to the entrance, equipped w/ explosive devices & electronic sensors to protect against Russia's artillery shells.
Serious question: what cheese pairs best w/ being "wiped off the map"?
PMC
"But you are unfair to KK, remember her 600 bunkers along the Esstie border which was going to protect 'us' from a Russian invasion or at least so scare the Russians that they go home?"
FAB go brrrrr
Couple of hits then everyone goes home
Europe wasn't prepared for the US to stab them in the back. 1st economically when Powell freed US from libor & aggressively raised interest rates. Then with nordstream.
If the Europeans are that collectively stupid and abjectly subservient to such a patently untrustworthy and fickle 'ally', perhaps it is best that they face the inevitable Darwin Award such moronic and short sighted policy demands. Europe's security cannot be guaranteed without the US umbrella, if you provoke Russia, and that has been NATOs intention all along.
There's no way forward for Ukraine with the gangland
China peace plans work
And relieve those incompetents in the current faction of the current USNATOEU régimes of a problem they can not and do not wish to solve
See RF reconstruction toute seule in the Donbass to get a preview- This is indeed high level socialist market economy, also whole process people's democracy
https://dan-news.ru/obschestvo/putin-po-videosvjazi-otkryl-v-mariupole-filial-nahimovskogo-uchilischa/
https://dan-news.ru/obschestvo/v-mariupole-vozvedut-tri-mnogokvartirnyh-doma-s-razlichnym-blagoustrojstvom/
https://dan-news.ru/obschestvo/korpus-mariupolskoj-bolnicy-intensivnogo-lechenija-gotovjatsja-otkryt-posle/
Ukraine was a US oligarch/military industrial complex project.
This assumes that Trump will win in November.
I could not cope with more than one idea at a time. I agree that it is actually looking more likely, now, that the dems will take it. Then we have the cheery prospect that both Ukraine and Israel get thrown under the bus, probably the best outcome for world peace.
For all their foulness, the Dems did well when half of the Dems in the Senate and the House boycotted Netanyahu's speech. They refused to be in the same room with that war criminal. Good for them. It was one of the very rare times it felt good to praise Nancy Pelosi.
It's a real stain on their party that so few in the GOP boycotted Netanyahu.
Yep.
Maybe - but the Dems filled their seats with hired hands who cheered on the Israeli very vigourously - how many Amercians, or RoW know that those cheering were majorly not Congressmen/women, but cheerleaders bought and paid?
Besides wasn't that the point? Everyone 'wins': the Dems get to virtue display with the consequence that the Israeil appears better supported- this is not a good look for US gvmt credibility
1. Trump will not leave Ukraine or the War On Russia. Call him "Putin puppet!" and he will fold. As we saw many times from 2016-2020, Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
2. While Trump is even more enthusiastic than Team D for the War On Palestine, A President Harris will do whatever the donors wish.
What kind of reputations are we sending to the world? Our banks holds assets from many people and many countries; it is obviously 1- illegal for a bank to confiscate the funds of others?
2- it is also illegal to print moneys to dilute the values of the dollars.
Are the front lines ever going to move in this war, or is it just going to be years more of both sides claiming they're winning?
Royotoyo,
imagine starting a negotiation between Antante and Central Axis powers in the midst of the First World war.
A. It is a stalemate.
B. Yes, but it is an attrition war, and until total power of the society is exhausted, we do not really know who is the winner.
And after so many deaths, casualties, wounded, orphaned, amputees, we are not ready to accept ceasefire at current frontline. We may still end up winning.
A. But you may also lose. You don't know whether US is going to join the war
Now imagine the discussion in 2024.
UA. It is a stalemate. You attacked first and have not beaten us.
RF. No, it is not, it is attrition war, and you are losing. The rate of destruction of your combat forces is greater than your combat forces generating power.
UA. But if NATO joins we will be stronger than you.
RF. NATO will not join. Only three more months until US election. Not enough time to have anything US decides today have an impact on the battlefield before November 5. Except for bluffing. But we are tired of bluffing, and we'll not even discuss bluffing.
NATO cannot join without US, US cannot join before the elections, that would guarantee election defeat. US cannot join after the election, whoever wins. Trump can contemplate bluffing, but the area of bluffing is small, before one enters nuclear war.
IF US joins directly, RF can guarantee both high number of US casualties, and nuclear escalation.
It will be either a bluff called, or a nuclear total war between US and Russia, MAD.
UA. You cannot make us neutral. We will join NATO.
RF. then there is no ceasefire
For the next six months, and maybe even longer, the key is in patience. UA has shown multiple times ready to sacrifice forces, men, lives for psychological, political effect. But it has payed off in 300 billion US dollars worth of support, and in an enhanced ability to keep the frontline steady. Only problem, big and growing, the pool of available manpower is drying up, and corruption is pushing people away from the army.
In a sense who is the first to lose patience will lose the war.
Russia is under pressure to do something before the US elections
Ukraine is under pressure to keep holding the line until negotiations start. Using primarily conscripted brigades, shortens the life expectance on the front for the newly conscripted, goes against mobilization effort. Using more experienced, nationalistic brigades, runs the risk of a coup - before going down in heroic fight someone will have time, energy to settle accounts with Kiev.
UA badly needs ceasefire, to reequip, refit, and in a year or two restart war.
Russia does not need territory, is ready for a ceasefire, if it guarantees end of conflict, for good, a durable agreement.
That is exactly what Putin offered as a peace proposal.
Give up on NATO; publicly, and finally in a document to be signed by UA, NATO; US,
This is not acceptable to any US government.
It will be Dnieper river, after two more years of war. Fate of Odessa, and Kiev still unclear.
Not because Putin or Russia cannot give it up, they are ready to accept Odessa, Harkov, Kiev as Ukraine if only Ukraine would remain neutral, but because US cannot give up on NATO, so end result will be smaller Ukraine, in NATO.
Zelensky will not be endangered, as he will not negotiate, another half million Ukrainians soldiers will die.
Now, imagine, if Simplicius and simple commenters on Simplicius substack, can describe the situation, and logical, inevitable development that will follow how much clearer/more clear the insight of Mr Wang Yi, or Pope's envoy is.
Orban is correct, war will get worse, but not worse enough for Kiev to give up, not worse enough for UK/NATO to give up, so US president will find himself in a situation where it will be difficult to refuse helping brave freedom fighters, i.e. escalate further, and either have his bluff called, or enter World War 3.
However, US president can extricate himself from media pressure by giving the steering wheel to Europe. Ukraine supported by Europe might be more ready to negotiate.
And then, it will be of interest to hear what China has to say.
the front lines are moving every day and always into the same direction (west). are you paying attention?
De-militarize, de-nazify, make neutral. Those are the stated goals; nothing much about territory…
Have you been locked in a cellar? The lines move daily, try to keep up.
The “peace” overtures have more to do with US politics than the state of the AFU (although that does play a part). Let’s see how things play out in the US.
They’ve pivoted to Kamala completely pushing out fake polls that she’s on par le beating Trump. How is it that she was less popular than Biden as a vice president, who was less popular than Trump, but now running for president she’s more popular than both?
The math doesn’t add up 😉
The math is mathing
The whole world is mathing for it
You can count on it.
I'd say the peace plan has more to do with China than the miserable state of US politics
The previous peace plans China did took the US by surprise because peace no good reasons
Yeah, the UK MSM has been widely citing the fixed [sole] poll as evidence of a surge of support for Harris and reporting that she and her policies ared hugely popular in the USA and with voters. Biden has been memory holed. I await another 4am election night uplift in the count for KH when the boxes of postal votes are opened.
The plan is to fake the polls and give out the impression that Harris is neck and neck with Trump. That means that massive cheating and fraud will be more believable for boobus americanus.
NOTHING BUT PERCEPTION MATTERS IN THE US.
Plus equally fake stories about how she'll be "tough on Netanyhu". Yeah right. Though it's an indication about what actual public sentiment is, they're terrified of low turnout, and that Dem leadership recognizes that spinning that fairytale is a must have for even a chance to get her elected
She will be tough on Netanyahu. She won't go down on him. At least not in public.
You know the old adage: Figures lie, and liars figure.
Bibi is proposing an OTAN-like security bloc for the ME, anchored by Israel & the U.S.--to be called the Abraham Alliance. He cites the U.S./UK/IDF defense against Iran's missile retaliation on the night of 14 April as an example of this cooperation: "Our enemies are your enemies. Our fight is your fight. Our victories will be your victories."
A new release of the children's paint-by-numbers tragicomedic slasher pic known as American Imperialistic Adventures in the ME coming in January 2025
our math will be your math
Did he get arrested and thrown in gaol as soon as he landed in the US? No?? Why not?
I bet the Secret Service didn't assign him 5 foot 1 inch pudgy female body guards either.
Verily. He seemed to have Congress wrapped round him but apparently a lot of them were stooges brought in to fill the seats.
I guess that the imperialist adventure will begin sooner than that.
Possibly, if Trump wins and the US/Israel do their typical false flag routine.
If there was ever a best time to release a drone swarm it was when Bibi's motorcade was moving.
JB is dead news - the NYT headline is China China Russaiastill a little too
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html
'The illicit flow of technology to Rissia goes through this Hong Kong address'
Way down the page if you can find him is
This is "a sign that U.S. government and tech giants cannot control where their technology goes," per the nytimes article: "Even as the West sought to cut off access to semiconductors through trade restrictions, Russia established such a robust parallel supply chain that it imported almost the same number of critical chips in the last 3 months of 2023 [after the trade sanctions] that it did in the same period of 2021 [before the trade sanctions]"
Not only has the West lost control of the war narrative but it has lost control of wartime chips
Thanks - you actually read the article, quel courage
I understand that the 28mm plus or whatever chips needed for military appliances the RF can make good enough as anyone, as can Aansar Allah, ships off the China Sea, chop shops in Tashkent, Yakutia and points south, even in darkest Africa....
But at least the NY has cottoned on - in any case the bad here is the Xi's not the VVP's for ignoring our sanctions
Useful Idiots turn up in Hong Kong apartment hi-rises as sure as they do in leafy Toronto suburbs
Soon we might all be the "publicly listed director" of illicit chip-exporting companies, forced to explain ourselves on a lazy summer afternoon to intrepid nytimes reporters
You can always tell them that your math is bigger than their math
And there are SO MANY in the leafy Toronto suburbs near me
I guess their clothes are really grimy, what with all those washing machines out of service.
Bless your righteous tongue Simplicius. Making the truth available for those that still have functioning eyes ears and minds is integral in the battle against evil.
I just saw a documentary on WWI. The Ukraine war has become a rerun of that war. Strategically and tactically. The battle fields with the trenches look the same along with the horrendous loss of life as men swarm over the devastated landscape.