Last night Russia again struck Kiev with one of the most massive attacks of the war, after having saved up missiles and drones for the past couple weeks.
That strike was, technically, 2 nights ago, on Wednesday - if counting European timing GMT/UTC, and not Pacific Time PT.
Russia needs peace negotiations with Ukraine to stop hostilities and turn Ukraine into it's ally. Divide it politically into a peace and war camps. Zelensky can't negotiate, it means end if him, including legal prosecution and life sentence. Putting pressure on command posts, that including Kiev hotels with mercenaries, and later on the whole government and Zelensky's lifes, would trigger or deepen that split.
That internal conflict will cause bloody civil war in Ukraine, it's partition into 2-3 pieces. The largest part will be associated with Russia, controlling access to the whole Black Sea, taking over Odessa ports to Romanian border and Transnistria.
The earlier plans to smuggle nationalistic rump state from divided Ukraine into European Union and into NATO are falling now apart. There was a proposal to create Polish-Ukrainian state union, with millions of Ukrainians flooding south-east Poland and granting them autonomy. But within the last month there is a very strong political opposition from Poland to such developments, and that also includes radical change in public opinion. That opposition is associated with the USA interests in Europe.
So time has came when Europe's Epsteined elites need Zelensky to wreak havoc as much as possible, escalate into wider war, including Belarus and to involve deeper all Europe into conflict with Russia. To divert her from Iran, Israel, Middle East and the other parts of world.
"That internal conflict will cause bloody civil war in Ukraine, it's partition into 2-3 pieces."
I am not so sure about that. There is a great deal of antipathy among Ukrainians towards Russophones. It has been the unifying force that has kept the conflict going this long. The Ukrainians who do not see this as their fight have, for the most part, left the country, and it appears that the balance are nominally loyal to the regime.
I think what will actually happen is that Russia will achieve its stated military goals within the next 6 months while bleeding the Ukraine military dry, Ukraine will sue for peace, and it will become a rump state with a reorganized government, at which point Russia will have immense leverage in Ukraine's government and will root out the Nazis that are left. Ukraine will return to being a vassal state to Russia, and the Western kleptocracy will have to find another small country to launder their money through.
From the last public census there were over 11 mln ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Most Ukrainians speak Russian as mother tongue.
Russophobes will be leaving Ukraine to Galicia and to Poland.
Russophiles will be coming back home from Europe, Russia, Belarus and elsewhere.
There is already an internal split in Ukraine for war and anti-war, those 2 mld avoiding forceful mobilisation, their families are in the second camp.
When front collapses, Zelensky's clique liquidated, state disintegrating and no money from the West for pensioners, social security, civil servants and soldiers, the only option would be asking Russia for help. Russia will give them work in Novarussia, rebuilding all destroyed industry.
Dude, the last full public census in Ukraine was conducted on December 5, 2001. Before that, it was conducted in 1991.
I think any conclusions derived from the last public census are sketchy at best. Plus, it included the breakaway oblasts where most of the Russophones lived.
Yes, census was long ago. I have quoted it because the other data is sketchy.
Since then many Russian left, especially after 2014.
But still just before war 2022 some 40% were Russian speakers and 20% bilingual. Some 45% of published books and newspapers were in Russian.
Now estimates 15-33% are left.
Ministry of culture reported 65% Kiev kids speak Russian at home and during class brakes at school. Odessa is even higher, further away from central administration.
After defeat of Ukraine in war they will become Russia's ally
It's used in outdoor education e.g. 'heuristic traps' which are erroneous rules of thumb that lead to poor decision making such as thinking some loudmouth domineering person in a group is the best person to guide a final decision.
This is what Grok says: Heuristic (noun): A practical, rule-of-thumb approach to problem-solving that gets you βgood enoughβ results quickly, without needing perfect information or exhaustive computation.
Heuristic thinking is what was posited by Daniel Kahneman (2011) as βSystem 1β, a fast decision making system responsible for intuitive decision making based on emotions, vivid imagery, and associative memory. βSystem 2β is a slow system that observes System 1βs outputs, and intervenes when βintuitionβ is insufficient.
So Putin did the usual, and increasingly rare, strike on non-significant targets, so that he could show that he is "doing something", meanwhile absolutely nothing is done to meaningfully decrease the AFU/NATO's ability to wage war on Russia, and the frontlines are increasingly bogged down.
In June the land recovered was, depending on the estimate, between 150 and 370 km^2, but even the highest estimate is much lower than it for June 2025. So things are going precisely in the opposite direction of where they should be going. How amazing is that?
And Putin continues to sit on his hands as the first ballistics flew to Moscow. This time shot down. But when the salvos increase in size they won't be all shot down.
"One of the major fires in Kyiv was recorded at the territory of the Chayka transport and logistics center. Its main importance for the AFU lay in the fact that its base was suitable for storing unmanned aerial vehicles, warheads and ammunition for them, as well as components for weapons and equipment arriving from abroad."
Really. Glad the AFR got around to this task.
Likewise, five years in, the sprawling Kiev Antonov aviation complex was only recently attacked as well. At the same time, major transport access from Odessa and across the Dnieper to the Donbas front also remained completely intact until recently. Yet Major refineries and gas hubs are still operational.
BOTTOM LINE: The AFR has done a miserable job-- intentionally so-- in allowing Ukrainian war fighting capacity completely functional.
Meanwhile Russia is drained of human, financial and industrial capacity. Huge resources are siphoned out of the general economy while casualties easily exceed a half million, probably closer to 750K. With Putin's "Inchworm Strategy" Russia has played into the hands of NATO.
More recently Putin blew the Fall and Winter on 25-26 in a circle jerk with Witkoff and Kushner even as Trump tried to assassinate him. Even into this year Putin was still entranced with the Spirit of Anchorage.
As usual, Putin was played just the way he was by Merkel and Hollande during the Minsk Accords phantom years. During that time Ukraine was armed to the teeth.
With this dreadful record it's clear: Putin has got to go but he's too deeply entrenched and protected by a Praetorian Guard.
At present rates the Ukraine War will drag on for years, leaving Russia etiolated and vulnerable to attack in '29-30.
Nobody knows what the casualty numbers are. It's probably not worth speculating about. There is no indication that the Russians are not able to replace losses - whatever they are - AND generate more combat power.
Russian population today is about what US population was during WW2. The US lost 400k+ dead and 1-2 million wounded. The demographic impact on the nation was nil - even less than nil as a baby boom followed the war.
Thats not to say that each death is not a horrible individual tragedy. The point is to keep it in perspective. It's also important to remember how the pervasive media presence in the world amplifies the impact of death and wounding. Again, not to minimize the loss of father, son or husband.
In many ways this war is relatively low intensity.
Perhaps it's low intensity partly explains why the pressure to reform the Military, MIC and State is not as intense and urgent as it might be.
Green Midget still believes the holes in his garden are the work of moles and that the collapse of the bamboo roof on his yak-dung hut was caused by lightning. Nothing fazes him; he has lived 600 lives and fought in 166 warsβincluding the Peloponnesian War and, even earlier, the conflict between *Homo sapiens* and Neanderthals, of which he remains the sole survivor.
We are supposed to be very impressed when Ukraine does the same in Crimea. Its the end , the end I tell you for Russia. Forgetting history lessons that Russia burned Moscow before Napolean reached it.The west is utterly clueless about what they are dealing with. As with Iran they thought they could mop up in a day.
Regime changes have its merits when you are talking about smaller countries who for starters can hardly shoot back. So Syria was sanctioned into oblivion (when Assad fell its GDP was 15% of what it was before the sanctions so buying of the Syrian elites was easy - same playbook as Venezuela). Now we have Al-Queda governing Syria and not sure what regime change in Venezuela actually accomplished. In the middle east Israel is a long time ally and specializing in killing just about everything in sight besides being completely lawless. The big states are much more difficult to overthrow like Iran and Russia (via proxy Ukraine) and although they certainly would like to see sanctions lifted they are strong enough to wheather it all out. Both conflicts are lost but the US acts as if they are in a position to issue strong demands. Sofar the total implosion of US military power and standing since 1991 has completely escaped the Washington crowd. Thats why they will be stupid enough to execute exactly the same (failed) playbook against China, with encirclement (Malakka strait), arming the proxy (Taiwan) and sanctioning it blindly. The idea is stupid
Even if Kramatorsk and Slaviansk were to fall today, so what? It's not like the West or its Ukrainian buttbois would say "well, I guess we just lost, fair and square."
The Americans were not enthusiastic about wwi or WWII either, until they got stuck in..
I have never said that europeans lack agency, although they sre cowards and slaves. Like the courtiers they are, they are always trying to bend the ear of Master.
So βPutinβ [standing in for the entire Russian military brass who actually have the training and experience to decide on appropriate military actions?] takes no βmeaningful actionsβ to reduce drone attacks on Russia? I fear you fail to see the interconnectivity between the actions described above and reducing Ukraineβs drone capabilities. Most electric power and distribution stations near the front have been destroyed. Therefore, to charge the batteries allowing the drones to fly, generators are needed. Generators use fuel from gas stationsβthemselves only able to pump fuel by using generators. Destroy the gas stations, no fuel for any purpose. No Ukrainian drones can fly. So I guess Russian military commanders are smarter than me or you, and maybe βPutinβ too.
>So βPutinβ [standing in for the entire Russian military brass who actually have the training and experience to decide on appropriate military actions?]
This is your fundamental mistake.
Putin does not stand for the Russian military brass, there is a deep conflict between them going back to 2014.
The General Staff wanted to go in with full force back in 2014, Putin vetoed it.
The General Staff did the Crimean operation behind Putin's back, Putin had to accept it because he would never have survived handing Crimea back once it had been recovered. But he still tried to do exactly that in Istanbul in 2022.
The General Staff/GRU sent Strelkov on a mission to Slavyansk to present Putin with another finished fact and force his hand to intervene back in 2014, but this time Putin successfully refused.
It was the military and not Putin who went in directly into the Donbass during the battles in the second half of 2014 and early 2015, on their own initiative. But all they could do with plausible deniability was to ensure the LNR and DNR's survival, nothing more than that. Still, without that intervention the LNR and DNR would have been run over.
Meanwhile Putin did Minsk, against the General Staff's objections.
The General Staff wanted to go in seriously in Syria, with a large ground force, a lot more aviation, etc., and to clear it all of jihadists, to the last man. Putin vetoed it and did Astana instead. We know how that ended.
The General Staff wanted to start a war with Ukraine ever since 2016 or so, Putin did not allow it, and in the end did the SMO.
The General Staff had proper plans for February 2022, Putin was the one who then went through them with the red marker and butchered the whole thing by forbidding the military from striking anything of real substance and imposing the absurd self defeating rules of engagement that doomed the first month of the SMO.
The General Staff was firmly against Istanbul and the goodwill gestures, Putin was the one who was so easily deceived for the umpteenth time.
The General Staff wanted an immediate total mobilization in April 2022, Putin did not allow it, then only did a partial one.
The General Staff has been insisting on serious mobilization ever since, Putin refuses.
The General Staff tried to start a serious infrastructure campaign in late 2022, Putin was the one who stopped it any time it threatened to actually crippled Ukraine.
Putin was the one who allowed the enemy to build up their drone and missile strike capabilities with Anchorage, the General Staff were the ones pulling their hairs in desperation.
The General Staff wanted nuclear strikes on the border crossings with NATO ever since mid-2022 -- I keep talking about that here, but it is not even my original idea, it was discussed in the Russian media by people connected to the military already at that time. Putin is the one vetoing it.
The General Staff have wanted to take out the drone production facilities in Europe. Guess who vetoes it?
Do you really have sources on all these claims about General Staff differences visavi Putin? One example is the βproper plans of feb 2022β which Putin red-markedβ¦I doubt there is any account of that.
Based on how events turned out since 2014, I think GMβs information is likely more true than not. Putin is very cautious lawyer, while General Staff career military. Nothing has happened since 2014 that signals Putin is effective or aggressive war time leader and I doubt the G.S. Is as incompetent as a lot of these decisions entail.
Also, why is this still a SMO? EVERYONE knows the whole West is waging WAR or preparing for war with Russia?
Russia was in no position militairy and sanction proof wise to take on the (US/NATO) response this sort of action would entail in 2014. It was ready in 2022 and then acted. The genius which makes him president can handle this sort of chess . All those arm chair generals here are just pathetic.
Yes, the echoes of Stalin's wishful thinking are strong in Putin. His persistent begging since 1999 to be considered an "equal partner" in Imperialism is nauseating. He was strung along for 22 years, while trying to earn kudos in Washington with numerous UNSC votes from Russia in support of Yanki sanctions/aggression against/occupation of other nations, e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, whereas their plan was always to fracture & disarm Russia and provide Putin a similar fate as Milosevic, Hussein or Ghadaffi.β?
Look, we can understand your disappointment at finding nothing but incompetent professionals among the eight psychiatrists you consulted, and we sympathizeβbut don't lose hope by thinking they're all like that. If paying for the consultations is a problem, we'll organize a fundraiser here.
Your fundamental mistake is engaging the clanking ratchets of what passes for your brain and not taking down the pics of Putin riding a horse shirtless.
Perhaps not from the gas stations set up for consumers, at least not directly (shutting down consumer transport by automobiles does indirectly hurt Kiev's ability to wage war), but very definitely there are dramatic effects on the frontlines from Russia's strikes on fuel storage facilities and on the "mobile tankers" you cite.
Taking out fuel storage facilities in particular is an effective strategy. Kiev can't do that except in an ankle-biting way against Russia, but Russia can do that in a massively strategically effective way against the Nazis.
But why go for gas stations while keeping the data centers, command and control centers, military and political leadership, and logistcs in Western Ukraine intact?
that's the point! They only have nuclear strikes now. They have used Oreshnik for what, how? Nothing significant. It's clearly too expensive for tactical purposes.
by the time the munitions RF has which can reach W Ukranus get there, everything can be moved after ppl finish their coffee and fuck a hooker.
You know, the reason they call it "propaganda for morons" is that it works on stupid people. If you fall for it that's not a compliment to your ability to discern truth from abject propaganda for morons.
This is pure nonsense: "they CANNOT HIT ANYTHING in W Ukranus
that's the point! They only have nuclear strikes now."
In point of fact Russia has a very wide range of conventional arms that can easily strike targets in the west of Ukraine. A very wide variety of longer range drones, like Gerans, both prop and the newer jet powered versions, can easily reach those targets, as can a very wide variety of cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles and much more.
to what do you attribute the sequence of purely IDIOTIC and pusillanimous actions by this "great" leader?
The TWO THINGS they need most....1000km tactical ballistics and AWACS coverage....are nowhere to be found.
AFU is raping them using a commercial satellite constellation and free panels coming over the borders en masse after 1000s of fucking TANKS came the same way.
you think all this shit was invisible and snuck over? FFS, they were disassembling planes and leaving them in border forests at first bc the west was afraid of Russia. Now they piss in Russia's face and do it in broad daylight.
Putin went to Anchorage desperate for a deal and he got one that was worth the toilet paper it wasn't even printed on. A sure whatever dude from Daddy Trump combined with an eyeroll. And here are the fruits of that "deal"- another escalation from the west
That's their job - to spread negativity among the population. Woe is us! All is lost! It's all incompetent Putin's fault! Russia's fate was sealed when they lost Navalny and Strelkov! Woe is us!
Technically speaking, Strelkov is still with us unless I missed something. We are not monsters, you know. Angry birds patriots are also alive and well. Very angry opposition to the brutal regime along with a few very graphic figures of liberals who would dispatch their hurt feelings to WashPost while sitting pretty in an upgraded gulag. Democracy is dying in darkness, y'all.
I do not think history will be kind to Putin when final analysis is done. Books, articles and movies will be made, as truth comes out it will be clear how feckless and weak he has been before and during the SMO.
I donβt know if Russia state will allow this in their public domaine, but it will be available outside Russia.
I am not the one who got Russia into the situation where it is bombed 24/7 but does not fight back, i.e. from a superpower to a Yugoslavia/Libya/Syria/etc. status.
Putin did that.
So the argument from authority doesn't really hold much weight here, because the authority has been conclusively demonstrated to be anything but
The usual ramblings of the embittered old fag , with the Putin fixation.
Russia was a basket case when Putin took over , on every economic, social and other indicator it has increased over 10 fold in that time as a simple web search can prove.
Why is this toxic old fag propagandist still posting here?
Grow a set and ban him. Or me , couldnβt care less at this point
Some will never get it, a pity. This is my answer to GM no hate speech but just the lessons my father told me, he fought the Russians with the Germans in WWII. Russia has to be brought on its knees, the situation has to be so desperate that youβre almost begging for let me die on the spot. But in Russians thereβs a force deep down of resurrection and will for survival, more than in any other people. Thatβs the alchemy of what first looks like defeat and than a power that comes from the soul, the Russian soul and the reaction that almost explodes is WIN OR DIE. This was the returning point and the lesson my father told me, this happened in the battle for Stalingrad. The German army could never win, their uniforms were to cute and their boots and guns froze to the ground and most of all their latrines, shithouses were utmost deadly. So GM keep up the fight and the faith.
1) The rate of advance has been most optimistically cut in half this year, and that is relative to the already snail pace of last year, at which the SMO would last another 80+ years.
2) Yes, insignificant targets. The significant targets, the elimination of which would win the war, are well known and continue to be untouched, thus by definition whatever has been hit last night is insignificatn
look you wanna believe, I get it....but what has changed with EVERY INCH of territory that RF has gained?
Nothing. The AFU has gotten ever-more aggressive and successful at attrition.
They've also gained ground near stepnogorsk...RF's advances are PATHETIC. This war will not end for 100 years at this rate.
These are FACTS. Just bc you don't like to hear them doesn't make those speaking them trolls.
AFU is going to be getting ballistic missiles. More drones. They will get the benefit of production in the EU which is NOT HINDERED by any sanctions and yes the EU *can* and WILL outproduce Russia on these.
And the EU has been offlimits for Putin despite its being a belligerent and direct participant.
For fuck's sake, Vovchan and Lexus just trolled the Estonian FM and there ACTUALLY IS - JUST AS I SAID THERE WAS - direct participation and coordination between EU/NATO states and Ukranus in drone strikes on Russia!
Mfing IDOITS here told me that all those NATO ELINT and ISR asset that just HAPPENED to be in the air during the SPIEF strike were purely coincidental. Fuck you they were coincidental. The EU/NATO states are ACTIVE participants now and Russia does NOTHING.
Bravo Mother Russia! Onward to the evil EUSSR and the poisoned dwarf, Hairstylist In Chief, Uschi von der Lyin' of the Epstein Pedovore Regime and her idiot minions of Urupp.
They don't even need to say that. This attempt at following Emily Post's rules of etiquette in a war is ludicrous. If they'd ever go ahead and win they could say whatever they want; no one's going to care anyway.
The "public" are cowardly, gullible dipshits, and their "opinions" will always amount to whatever is the least likely to get them made fun of on the internet. They can and should be ignored.
"Posterity" is a concern only in a future that never arrives.
Public opinion always eventually goes with winning. In this particular case I think Russia would make a much more powerful statement by taking the initiative, FOR ONCE, and taking responsibility for attacking rather than hiding behind some lame excuse. That might have some impact on the fading interest of any Russian friends or allies that still care.
public opinion ???when you have to contend with western primates , they have always hated Russians and will always hate them because of the miniscule brains and propaganda. Vlad Brovkin says it :there is the appeaser Putin and the War Hawks. Putin sees the populations of the east Ukraine as Russians , meaning he is treading lighly compared to the Hawks. And just bombing cant win wars shitrael and usa have finally figured this out with their puny primate brains.
I think the whole reason Russia has had to walk on eggshells is so the rest of the "occupied west" doesn't collectively declare war on them for "taking it too far"
It's strange how many of the people who say Iran would be safe if only they had a nuclear weapon also say that Russia can't defend itself because it will be attacked with nuclear weapons if it does.
So the only idea in your brain is that big bad alpha countries don't get pushed around, and weak little pansy countries do? What a revolutionary idea! Primitive thinking straight out of a biker bar.
You probably don't even know what I meant when I said "occupied west". Current global geopolitics plays quite a large role in a given country's war strategy! If the "people" who control most of the western countries are all hell bent on your destruction, you may have to tread a bit more lightly and strategically than two countries at war with no other possible external influence.
The "people" who started and controlled the USSR, did so because they hate Russia, Russian people, and Russian culture, for merely existing, and have hated them for merely existing for centuries. Russia was a completely self sufficient, prosperous Christian society, which is an incredibly offensive thing to be allowed to exist, if you're the "people" who started and controlled the USSR.
Those "people" weren't able to take over and control the financial system in Czarist Russia, because the Czar has ultimate control over the nation's financial policies. Even MORE offensive.
Now those "people" don't control Russia anymore (because the USSR is gone, Christian Russia is back, and only 5-10% of the people in Russia identify as what we would call "leftists") but they DO control a whole bunch of nuclear armed western countries and still hate Russia and Russians for existing, and want any reason to weaken them and wipe them off the map. That hatred is half the reason NATO / the EU exist (who both love Israel so much), and the entire reason the 2014 Ukraine coup happened at all.
This is why Russia has had to tread strategically in this war. Not blow up bridges until Ukraine does so first. Not attack civilian targets like Ukraine (and Israel) love to do. Not blow up every gas station until Ukraine attacks Russian infrastructure first, etc. Global geopolitics, especially in this situation, are not so simple as biker bar logic.
Hockey is a young man's game. Since Washington won't make the playoffs again for being too slow, all the team has to cheer about is Ovi's presence, like a dinosaur fossil in a museum. Impressive but extinct. If you want a good Russian player, pick the young super talented Demidov from Montreal, a team loading up with Russian players. Ovi is past, like the 8-track cassette player, once great, now obsolete. Come on, Aly, you need to pick a winner to be a winner. π
Oswald Spengler argued convincingly that the exact opposite is true: behind the scenes, foreign policy ALWAYS takes precedence over domestic policy in every "liberal Western" country. I believe that is true.
Today there was another attack on a Belarusian bus in Bryansk, but this time even more blatant -- they hit it right at the border crossing from Gomel.
The reaction from the Belarusian side? Well, there are the exact words:
>Belarus has labeled the attack on a passenger bus on the Minsk-Anapa route a terrorist act. According to former Belarusian presidential candidate and retired colonel Sergei Gaidukevich, the attack by Ukrainian militants on the Russian-Belarusian border was a planned attempt to intimidate civilians.
>"Considering that nothing is working on the front, the focus is on terrorism and extremism. Therefore, these are not military objectives, but terrorist ones. There are two reasons for this. The first is to demonstrate military capabilities to the West so they can continue to receive money, and the second is to try to destabilize the situation," the parliamentarian stated.
>Gaidukevich emphasized that Russia and Belarus will act strictly within the legal framework: criminal cases are already being opened, investigations are underway, and all those involved in attacks on civilians will be punished .
So it's once again a "terrorist act". Meaning it is not an act of war. Because if you say it is an act of war, then you have to fight a war. But if it's "terrorism", then you can say you will strictly observe the legal framework and wash your hands of the matter. Which, of course, will not deter anyone. Putin once upon a time used to say that "Russia does not negotiate with terrorists" and "We will hunt them and kill them wherever they are, even on the toilet". Times have apparently changed...
Lukashenko on weekend went to Valday and to Beijing for direct help from both those states. I bet he also called later Pyongyang to assure their April done agreements are strong.
Belarus, Russia and China don't want Ukrainian war to widen. They need it under control. Any chaotic and not well prepared movements are dangerous, can cause too much NATO pressure. That's why Lukashenko apologised to Zelenky several weeks ago and possibly also changed positions of Russian drone transponders a week ago.
Ideally for Russia are peace talks conducted in Minsk, and not Ankara, Geneva or Abu Dhabi.
I don't know what exactly would be, just if there are peace talks better do them in Minsk. So Lukashenko has to play cool.
Even full capitulation signed in Kiev should be with some legal all-country Ukrainian entity, preferably civilian one, like the parliament Verhovna Rada, and not just defending garrison.
So those nationalists in Galicia won't have authority to prolong war.
If you take everything Simpli has been writing latelyβwhich is just delusional ramblingβas the truth, you might as well believe a stranger claiming heβs sleeping with your partner, even if your partner is a man.
NATO will not stop this proxy war until it believes Putin will hit European targets which will only be the case when Russia actually does hit European prime targets like London-Berlin.
Take down the MI6 bully and the flock will follow.
The UK SSBNs were apparently all in port once again recently. Might even still be.
Golden opportunity presenting itself to take care of that particular tumor on the face of the planet. But Putin will never touch the dear partners, and that island is the dearest of them all, with all the precious real estate the Russian oligarchs have there.
The UK has been calculating from the beginning and all this time that the Russian oligarchy will not destroy its own mansions, mistresses, children and money, which are all in the UK.
And it has been one of the most successful bets in history so far...
Especially since all of Britain's nuclear attack subs are currently in repair, a " Pearl Harbor" like strike would be tempting, but also a big gamble regarding possible US escalation.
It does seem like a pretty big gamble. Do you think the US would ever attack Russia with nukes without simultaneously attacking China, though? I can't see the US opting for mutually assured destruction that leaves its main adversary unharmed. Different if they think they could win, though maybe.
We're talking about disabling the second strike capability so that a total countervalue first strike is carried out, i.e. wipe the whole thing out to make an example of it for others.
The US will not retaliate over what no longer exists.
Russia needs to deal with Ukraine before starting another conflict and ending up in a two-front war it doesn't have the stomach for. The SMO was poorly conceived; hence,, soon going into the 6-year war of a 2-week SMO. Oh, I know. Russia got fooled again. π
The West has even less stomach for war, which is why they're always on the prod for useful idiots to do the dying for them, and surprisingly there isn't a shortage of morons willing to play that role.
The morons are being lined up as we speak. There are going to be so many unemployed people in Europe that they can just make conscription a prerequisite to collecting unemployment insurance or welfare with extra pay. Sure glad I'm not a young unemployed European these days. π Being young would be fine, though excluding the unemployed European part. haha
Russia is already IN a two-front war if you count the US and Europe as some other front. It's just that Russia isn't fighting back on one of those fronts and, naturally, is losing because of it.
I understand what you're saying, Elena. But, my point is if Russia starts lobbing bombs in Western Europe, it would activate NATO, under Article 5, to a much greater level of conflict before Russia even has a chance to neutralize Ukraine, so NATO can't link up with it. When two forces attack, it's better to destroy one side first, making it easier to take out the second. As it stands, Russia is having a hell of a time dealing with Ukraine, along with some help. It didn't have to be this way, but I'll leave it at that.
"my point is if Russia starts lobbing bombs in Western Europe, it would activate NATO, under Article 5, to a much greater level of conflict before Russia..."
Just to be clear, NATO is currently activated, and attacking Russia, to the extent it deems comfortable and seems prepared and willing to do that for the foreseeable future, meaning until it is ready to proceed to do MORE harm to Russia. Can we agree on that?
If we do agree on that, then Russia has a simple (not to say easy) choice: let the west escalate when it's ready to do so, or take action now while the west is NOT ready to do so. Since I think Russia is in a greater state of preparation than the west is, I think it should strike now. Time is not on Russia's side, a fact known to everybody in the world except the commenters on this blog.
Good points, Elena. I like the idea of Russia taking a pre-emptive stance, but they failed miserably at initiating friction with their half-assed SMO. Your idea is good, but Russia won't do it. They are more reactive than proactive.
Exactly, except that striking a European country would still be retaliation rather than preemptive, as Putin himself has said. But your point is valid.
Ukraine cannot be dealt with without dealing with Europe. And dealing with Europe means a strategic nuclear attack. Not a tactical one, certainly not a symbolic conventional strike. The first attack has to go for the total kill.
Thank Putin for letting things get to that point and don't blame the messenger.
GM, I like most of your information, but maybe the nuclear option is too soon. The threat to Russia isn't big enough yet. However, I understand what you're getting at. The Kremlin oligarchs are too Western-friendly, more focused on money than on patriotism. That makes it impossible for Russia to apply the necessary deterrence to ensure its security, which amplifies the problem over time, as exemplified by the current failed SMO.
For GM, like most of the commentators here, the only two options are: nuclear strike" and "nothing".
They're actually saying the same thing, just taking different sides of a false dichotomy. Most commentators use this as an excuse for Russian dithering. GM is all for the nukes.
What's your take on this nuclear thing, Feral? Is Russia really facing an existential threat? GM makes a good case, but are there other, less intrusive things to do? I'm still thinking, trying to figure this out.
I'd agree it was a false dichotomy except, perhaps, for attacks on the nuclear triad. If sufficiently vigorous reprisal had occurred after operation spiderweb I might still think so, but the response was... not sufficiently vigorous. That upped the ante on any further attacks on any part of the nuclear apparatus, and I'm inclined to agree with GM on that one. They simply must not be tolerated, and no price is too high to pay for that - it really is existential in an immediate way.
The only thing that Stas is reliable on is reports from the frontlines.
Other than that if you actually know the subject matter you will catch him in absolute howlers every time he opens his mouth.
He certainly doesn't know anything about the Russian nuclear arsenal. Very few people do. But we do know that the USSR had small nukes and we also know that a few were used in Ukraine covertly (well, a mushroom cloud over ten kilometers high is not really a covert use of a nuke, but the point is that nobody ever acknowledged it on either side). It's extremely unlikely the small nukes were completely retired and everything that remained was 75 kt and above.
But that was not the point I was making -- the point was that if you are going to hit Europe, you will not be doing counterforce targeting only, because then what you will get is yet another platform for retaliatory strikes on yourself. You have to wipe it all fully and then take over the territory so that it cannot be used as a platform for strikes on you, i.e. not making the same mistake that was made with Ukraine.
I am not the one who allowed things to get so out of control.
If I was in the Kremlin, Ukraine would have been reincorporated into the Russian Federation back in 2014, earlier even, in 2005, the Belovezh Accords would have been renounced, Belarus would have rejoined the new USSR too, all the oligarchs would have been lined up and shot, as well as all Banderites, and we would be in a very different world in which Russia doesn't have to nuke anyone.
But I wasn't in the Kremlin, Putin was, so here we are in the situation in which nothing but strategic nuclear strikes will save Russia.
Had they, this shit they're in would not be happening now
See dude, this is the problem with you- you say use nukes but then claim that they DID use nukes but just nobody acknowledged they did...but that the US knows and EU knows and everyone knows. And yet STILL the EU proceeds so wtf good would it do to use them again?
FFS man nobody has used any nukes in this war. Radiation monitors ALL OVER EUROPE would have alarmed and it IS NOT POSSIBLE to have squelched this
Well, both Russia and Ukraine have been hitting each other's gas stations, trucks, and oil infrastructure. Russia is also experiencing oil shortages in parts of the country as Ukraine continues to target production facilities with as much success as Russia. Russian gasoline crunch worsening: two-thirds of regions under fuel rationing or supply disruption after Ukrainian refinery strikes (BurggrabenH); Putin conceded "problematic but not critical" shortages and floated a diesel-export ban
So the war of attrition continues with both sides taking losses. And Ukraine still has the resources to hold for the foreseeable future. So in another 6 months, you can count on the 2-week SMO entering its sixth year in six months, which no one ever expected. But, yeah, trust the plan. Too bad it keeps changing as this war carries on. π It didn't have to be this way. I'll just leave it at that. (when winning is one hell of a costly and painful experience) Luckily, we're not the ones in the trenches for years at a time waiting to get killed. This kind of war becomes a desensitizing game as the over 1 million casualties keep mounting. But who cares? Russia is winning. Just a few more years.
βThe Illusion of victoryβ meaning there is no victor.
USA and israel burned through their stockpiles with nothing gained.
Russia gained half of UK in area 120,000sq km and millions of Former Ukrainians have Russian passports and have a look at the rebuild of Mariuopal . Lets see the usa or nato start a war and conquer 120,000 sq kms .All the naysayers about the smo have no idea about war not an ounce, the attrition has been super succesful, you cant win wars or change Russia with drones. Next to the bathouses(Englands epsteins) in London sit MI5 and MI6 where the primates make their devious plans against Russia and their own uk population.In Germay its wiesbaden where murder inc. has its home.
>Russia gained half of UK in area 120,000sq km and millions of Former Ukrainians have Russian passports
Russia didn't gain 120,000 km^2 and 6-7 million former Ukrainians.
It lost 400,000 km^2 and 20 million ethnic Russians and was reduced to the same status as Syria, Libya, Yugoslavia and all the other countries the US and the West have bombed at will.
false. DPR/LPR controlled most of those areas prior to the war
RF has gained VERY VERY VERY little in fact. At a cost maybe of 1M casualties now. Insane.
What do you people call letting the type of THOUSANDS OF UNITS of armor come over the border from a neighboring state unimpeded? DF was the POINT of this?
I wish there was any data at all on the hit rate of Russia's new fully autonomous drones, as I'd like to know if the technology is finally getting to the point where it's actually effective against ground targets. I'd also like to know if these drones can guide themselves in pursuit of mobile targets like personnel or vehicles or if thy can only hit targets at pre-programmed coordinates.
Fully autonomous weapons have a bad to terrible track record against ground targets as was seen at the start of the war with the failure of the Javelin ATGM and again in 2023 when the short-lived success of optical AI-based targeting in FPV drones and loitering munitions was foiled by drones cages becoming more common and confusing the AI with their non-standard and unpredictable design features, so it would be quite the significant development for these systems to suddenly have a turn around from the technology maturing.
It doesn't really matter at this point, the West has mobilized enough industrial resources to crush Russia with drones, which absolutely refuses to mobilize for war because that would destroy the Russian oligarchy, but even if it mobilized fully, would still be crushed conventionally, because the mismatch in industrial potential is so vast.
The only thing that will save Russia at this point is strategic (not tactical) nuclear strikes on Europe and praying the US (and France) sit it out if they are left unharmed.
They still might not need nuclear weapons if Putin would ever treat this as a war and not a walk in the park. Imagine them cutting off oil to any country supplying weapons to Ukraine, including China and India if they are, and definitely Europe and Turkey. That would go far towards leveling the industrial potential. And Russia is closer to having the military might in the needed places. I'd like those chances better than a prayer that the US and France would stay out (nor do I think they should be unharmed).
And how many times have we heard that China would never ever let Russia lose this war? You don't seem very confident in that guarantee...
Cutting off oil should be done, but it won't make any difference.
The flow of weapons into Ukraine must be stopped, and there is no other way to do that but to use nukes.
>And how many times have we heard that China would never ever let Russia lose this war? You don't seem very confident in that guarantee...
The Chinese don't seem to understand that they are the end game and the final meal for the crocodile. Or they think that the crocodile eating them last is some kind of a win. In any case, if they seriously understood the gravity of their own situation, they would not have allowed Venezuela to fall, they would have flooded Iran with hardware, they would be pumping Cuba with fuel, drones and missiles, and they would absolutely not be selling any drones and components to Ukraine and the West, with everything going to Russia instead.
But we have seen none of that.
It's some mix of the Chinese being overconfident in their ability to defeat the West even when completely surrounded, which is pure idiocy, and having some plans to make a deal with the US while grabbing Siberia (to which purpose Russian being severely weakened is a prerequisite), which is also delusional -- there will be no deal with the US.
I was being sarcastic about China, unfortunately. I think they think they can make a deal, and I'm sure they will. It will last until the US thinks it isn't helping them destroy China.
China has already said before this war all the usa bases japan , korea , phillipines, will be knocked out a-la Iran if us starts anything and they know there are no second chances so its first to the mass weapons button
When and where have Russian logistics, refineries and factories been *crushed?* Russia's military and industry run on diesel. They have never produced proportionately much gasoline domestically and import gas from Asia every summer. Knocking out a refinery's storage tanks disrupting the planned delivery of a previous production run causes a two or three day delay in restoring distribution. It does *not* crush the system.
Refineries are huge with multiple production trains. Fires in one or another train are common place. The system is built to handle it without being devastated. Basically if you see a lot of fire and smoke, you didn't see anything essential to the operation being destroyed.
Keep in mind that the Ukrainian drones have to go incredible distances weaving through Russian air defenses under the guidance of American space based surveillance of Russian air defenses. That means the drones sacrifice warhead for distance. Thus they arrive at their destination in deep Russia with tiny warheads.
Anyway your claim was that Ukraine has a numerical drone advantage of three to one and that gap is increasing. I ask you where could they be coming from? The money to build such numbers of drones has been eagerly given to the Ukrainian oligarchs by Europe. But where are the results?
When you spend several nights in Donetsk surrounded by a swarm of enemy drones until dawn, on the third day a slight numbness sets in from lack of sleep and other distractions.
This state forces you to focus on the main tasks and not interfere with anything else, not wasting a shred of energy even on unnecessary conversations.
You don't watch the news either, because you live among them.
And what is there to watch?
You open it.
Trucks are burning on the Starobeshevska Highway. An EMERCOM vehicle was attacked near Novyi Svet. Drones are burning trucks on the Mariupol highway. Everything is ablaze in broad daylight. And last night, a drone already tried to attack a car in the center of Donetsk.
And about what we heard all night.
In the Leninsky district today, they burned a parking lot of trucks β 22 vehicles! 22! These were peaceful trucks, as people write, belonging to a candy factory.
It turns out the Ukrainian is in the clear.
In principle, the same is true for us. If you watch what's happening on TV or just don't pay attention.
Less than a month has passed, and the media has quickly routinized the nightmare, where casualties and damages are simply counted in the spirit of Minsk-2, and against all this, there are some cheerful plans and mundane news.
More and more people are thinking about leaving, because no one has an answer yet, not even in theory, on how to stop the terror.
Let's assume I'm a pessimist, because I simply didn't get enough sleep.
Donetsk, can you share some good news? What has changed for the better now? Optimists, convinced patriots, activists, and sowers, it's your turn.πͺ
- I went to the hypermarket this morning. Do you remember what it was like when the owners changed? When the shelves were empty? Well, that's how it is now! There's almost nothing. The employee said it's because the cars can't get in. The dairy store is empty. I saw five cheese curds and scooped them all up. I ended up making ten thousand rubles out of what was there in an hour.
- Oh, don't tell me you bought pasta and cereal, you're just feeding the bugs! - Yeah,
I would have bought some, but they're all gone! The cashier said everyone's like that, stealing everything from the shelves!
I listened with some surprise. Honestly, I'm not much of a grocery shopper β I hate it with all my heart. I didn't notice any changes in the surrounding stores in the village β they looked just like they were before the drone incident.
Around lunchtime, another message arrives, this time from the city center:
"The store shelves are half empty. Chocolate bars have completely disappeared, only the expensive ones remain, and not everywhere. The selection of canned fish has halved."
I wonder, friends, what's going on in our grocery stores?
I recalled the summer of 2014, when Donetsk, exhausted by shelling, was constantly reeling to the point of panic. One day, people rushed to buy grains and canned goods. I wasn't part of this movement, but I stopped at a chain supermarket in a quiet outskirts.
It was an epic sight. Sweaty, nervous women were loading flour, sugar, salt, and cookies into carts. Everything was scattered across the floor. The shelves were gnawed clean. There was a crush, some were snatched from under their noses, others were crushed. A line.
As I waded through this garmider, I grabbed a pack of crab sticks from the fridge and a bottle of champagne from the shelf. I thought I'd eat the sticks now and drink the champagne when this was all over. I joined the nervous, huffing line.
I'll never forget that moment: amidst piles of food as tall as me, I contentedly placed the crab sticks and champagne near the checkout. I've probably never seen anyone look at me with such intense hatred. In the minds of these nervous women, I've probably already died of hunger three times over.
So, it's hard to suspect me of panicking.
About three weeks ago, my friend, who takes care of my foster dog, Zhulka, sent over another "tranche" of boxes of canned goods.
When I put some of it in a bag and brought it to Zhulka's deployment location, every male employee I met thoughtfully said, "And we need to get ready." They nodded at the bag. At first, I didn't understand it at all, but then I sort of understood. Although, of course, the situation was easier back then.π
We will hear about the hit rate after the war. Even for the hand steered drones, where we see all this nice videos, they are hard to rate. I can remember all too well the Yugoslav war, where the NATO forces showed all these videos of hitting tanks, AA, radars or guns. After the war we found out, that the Yugoslav (now Serbian) Army losses was not substantial. The sophisticated NATO forces hit fake targets, while the real stuff was hidden from the most adavanced scanners.
Lancet has been autonomous from inception and it's was nothing but smashing success. Failure of US MIC weapons on battlefield is tradition, but they do not make weapons to work, they make weapons for $. It's different category and must be judged separately.
True, but the fully-automated part of the Lancet has always been a backup system for in case connection to the operator is lost either due to jamming or terrain interference. The Lancet has never been quite the fully automated "launch and forget" type drone its supposed to one day become.
No no, fully AI mode was design feature right from the start. And Lancet (under different name) was tested all the way back in Syria, just like many other systems (neural networks for machine vision were way before LLM craze)
Operator there is not as main option, he is there to not waste system on dud positive match and he is merely there to "okay" the target.
"A drone attacked a bus in the Bryansk region carrying 19 passengers on the Minsk-Gomel-Anapa route, Belarusian TV reports.
Two residents of the Gomel region were injured and received medical treatment.
A special task force has already been dispatched from Gomel to evacuate passengers and drivers.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces drone strike on the Minsk-Anapa bus was a deliberate strategy by Kiev, which was not carried out without the approval of Western sponsors, Miroshnik stated.
According to him, Ukraine is tracking Belarusian transport and launching strikes to provoke and unsettle the republic's leadership."
I suspect the Russians have been building up for something big . They knew that the logistics would get tight for Ukraine and its happening . The west can only supply drones in some quantity and air defence is getting severely depleted . Add to this their shortage of boots on the ground and you have a situation that will favour the Russian military in their offensive . Someone in the Russian intel world will be keeping an eye on critical logistics and will probably have a "trigger" level which will cause larger actions to commence . IMO the Russians will want to take Odessa and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea .
The number of fixed-wing drones launched equalized in February and is now 3:1 in favor of Ukraine, and the ratio keeps growing in the wrong direction, with production in Europe and the US only now ramping up.
Those are the empirical very ugly for Russia facts.
This was ALWAYS going to happen, and you don't seem to understand that. There is no 'geographical limit' to this war, there is not and never has been a chance of 'defeating Ukraine' once BloJo flew in to nix the signed agreement.
From there on, this is a general war. And one where the West not only is willing to sacrifice its own citizens, but actively wants an excuse to do so. Including in nuclear hellfire.
What Russia is doing now is shaping that future battlefield, without giving the West an excuse to cite A5 and begin the general war. JUST as Belorus is also avoiding breaking the status quo, so too the West is hoping for an legalist excuse, which Russia is not giving them.
If Russia can first absorb the damage, and end at the Dnieper and Odessa BEFORE general hostilities start, she will be in a considerably better place strategically - a few lost gas storage sites does not compare even remotely to that prize of strategic defence before WW3 breaks out openly.
"The first step in avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence" - generals know how to win a war. What they are lousy at is the strategic patience to win during 'peace'.
Right now Russia is winning during the pre-war 'false-peace' - it is costing them a LOT, but they ARE winning.
Once the general war starts, Russia is in a bind: to win THAT war, they have to take Europe. But that is absolutely the last thing they want to, unlike the West they have no genocidal impulse towards the people of the West, whereas the West is lead by people who will happily, indeed WANT to genocide BOTH populations, Russia's and their own!
Putin's aim is to have such a strong frontline that even if Germany 'remilitarises', even if the EU 'remilitarises', then their poorly trained conscript 'meat waves' die fruitlessly on pointless attacks, the Surivikin Line on steroids all down the Dnieper, with air superiority protecting the homeland.
Russia also knows, probably better than 90% of Western publics, that there's no way for Western populations to 'vote' their way out of the planned war anymore, Corbyn and the Romanian dude made that plain as day.
The land to the west of Russia's borders in now universally hostile, albeit with some small pockets of hope - and only hope - in the eastwards parts.
So the only thing they can do is shape that future conflict before it starts, and that is precisely what they are doing.
Your wet dream fantasies that "nukes" will teach the West humility is completely incorrect, first use will simply allow the offshored psychos an excuse to retaliate in kind, and it will cost them nothing more than when they attack mother russia with terrorism, and in response Russia blows up more of Ukraine.
This is literally a win-win for the Slav-hating racists pulling the strings.
And so would moving this war to a nuclear footing be.
They WANT WANT WANT Russia to do this.
What the Kremlin is waiting for is the inevitable economic collapse from energy shortages in the West (US fracking is a very short term prospect, each well lasts 10 years at most), and the financial collapse that will destabilise the West more than nuking every capital.
It's taking longer than expected, because financial wizardry and QE behind the scenes, but sooner rather than later the final grains of sand run through the egg-timer, and the ponzi schemes collapse.
Good write, most of it, and very plausible reasoning.
"The first step in avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence" - generals know how to win a war. What they are lousy at is the strategic patience to win during 'peace'. Dead right.
And Russia missed that they were dragged into a trap long before 2014, when it finally sprung. They then missed or ignored every step the West took to build an even bigger trap, the NATO-Ukraine.
The feb 2022 was a trap and Russia stepped into it, to the delight of Deep State US&UK. The sanctions and freezing of assets came very swiftly as of pre-planned. Europe&NATO was taken by surprise, although I think Stoltenberg&Co, was involved in the planning.
So Russia has stucked the foot into the Bear-trap and all βWestβ has to do is to wait for the bleeding to death. The Bear cant reach West (unless releasing nukes). End of story.
You are missing the POINT of starting the SMO. Yes, it was to protect the peoples of Donbass, but more urgently strategically, it was to prevent nuclear-capable short range missiles stationed there, with hypersonics (And the West will get there EVENTUALLY) a 2min flight time to Moscow.
When one plays chess, the aim is to create lose-lose for your opponents.
This was the plan.
Either Russia accepts the strategic defeat of nukes placed right next door to the capital, relying on the 'decent morality' of the West, or else takes the risk of invading Ukr, and triggering the circumstances we see today.
It was a lose-lose, and the Kremlin was 100% aware of that.
They went with the lesser but more bloodletting risk, and prayed the sudden incursion brought the Ukrainian regime back to sanity. And it worked - until it didn't because of a large bag of pharma coke brought by a fat bag of shit.
Blaming Russia is like blaming the dude minding his own business until some violent fuckwit strolls over and smacks them behind the head. For a pacifist, whatever happens after that is already a loss.
The Bear CAN reach the west, it has missiles capable of doing so, that are unstoppable. The damage that can actually do is limited, beyond some surgical strikes to assassinate key decision centres. As Iran has showed, the usefulness of that can be limited - especially if total war is planned.
The trap was so good that Russia had to move (lose-lose). The βprotectionβ of the Donbass people is merely an excuse. The real reason was of course NATO entering Ukraine.
And I dont blame Russia.
The Bear has his foot stuck in the Ukraine trap and as you write do limited damage to the West (unless using nukes).
I know that nukes will go of before any primate from the western sets foot on Russian soil and raises a gun at Russian soil . Who are we kidding Russia will destroy the west if it starts anything beginning with holland all those dykes will be useless. Russians care about their kin in Ukraine but dont give a shit about hairless western primates.
Agreed . The fact that the west is now committing piracy shows desperation . Maritime transport is the key to the elites/globalists power and that's been restricted , and when war is "declared" shipping will be targeted . Ships can carry large amounts of cargo, but its all gone when they sink. Europe receives a lot of its resources via shipping and its supply chains will be in jeopardy . It will require only a few nukes to send everyone back to the middle ages if they use EMP weapons . Our reliance on the internet and stable power networks will be gone and chaos will rule and the law of the jungle will prevail . The massive debt that exists in the west will eventually destroy the currency/financial systems as trust evaporates and barter will become prevalent . As you stated money and cryptocurrency are becoming ponzi schemes now. Food and fuel will become the new currency.
Because like all pirates they hit and run . If they become to big an issue all vessels will have to be escorted or garrisoned . The convoy system could also return . In WW2 the Germans had an overwhelming advantage initially but lost it when measures were taken to counter it.
They aren't pirates, though, they are privateers. We're talking about state sponsored piracy, and unlike pirates, states can't hit and run. Every time the UK or France or US stops a ship, Russia knows exactly where to retaliate. But it doesn't.
"This was ALWAYS going to happen, and you don't seem to understand that. There is no 'geographical limit' to this war, there is not and never has been a chance of 'defeating Ukraine' once BloJo flew in to nix the signed agreement."
So why has Russia been pussyfooting around for four years, then?
If the West wants a war with Russia, it will start one. No legalist excuse necessary.
As a guess, likely for the same reason a single hyena in a skanky pack won't go directly toe to toe with a lion. They will get fucked up. They work as a pack, running in from many directions, taking a nip before whimpering back, hoping to be out of reach.
It's the same technique used on bears by hunters, anyone walking up and belting it on the nose is not walking away, if lucky they will crawl and hope a medicine healer is nearby to stitch the inevitable deep wounds.
No European population wants to be that bleeding out idjit, which is why the poor Ukrainians were couped, and then used as drone fodder by the installed Nazi dictatorship.
The costs of being first into the bear cave are tremendous, the benefits doubtful.
However, should the bear attack the village encampment first, or be seen to have, then the first in isn't an idjit, but a brave defender of the womenfolk and chillun.
Yes, human societies really haven't changed that much, just because we now have smartphones and fridge-freezers.
The war is already happening. But it is not like WWII, just as WWII was not like WW1. It's a hybrid of economic and kinetic warfare, together with proxy warfare similar to the Cold War and an extra-large helping of information warfare amplified by the ability of the state to filter out news it does not want people to see and push lots of propaganda that it does want people to see. And beyond that, to enable and encourage the media systems, mainstream, social, and otherwise, toward generating so much junk and misinformation that many people simply tune out.
I do expect the Ukraine war to escalate, simply because the US/NATO rulers are working so hard to make it happen. Not that they have any idea of what to do when that happens. They don't seem to have any ideas except to keep pulling the same levers of sanctions and weapons, over and over.
They remind me of kids playing with blasting caps.
Yes, I think that is what the Empire managers believe. The looming global economic chaos may surprise them. Such is the echo chamber they inhabit, they convince each other that, "We are so superior. We can't possibly lose."
This seems to be the biggest point of difference between a few of us here and the rest. I'm convinced it's the west that's playing the long game and Russia that isn't, and that time is on the west's side (and Russian defeat, at this point, is all but inevitable unless Putin has a big change of heart). Prevailing mythology these parts is exactly the opposite and that all Russia has to do is wait till the west implodes.
Congratulations on writing a cogent and convincing comment. "Financial wizardry" is practiced by very clever but sociopathic people who are sufficiently intelligent to know that the object of their trickery is to gain control of natural resources and productive tangibles, not the gewgaws the "unwashed" mistake for wealth. The USA and Europe wrote their own "Chronicle of a Death Foretold" when they deindustrialized and financialized their economies and it is highly likely that the Russians and the Chinese were well aware of that long ago, certainly by the mid-90s, when I became aware of it myself, thanks in large measure to a 1995 book written by Robert Prechter of "Elliott Wave" fame: "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave".
Mr. Prechter was a stock market technical analyst, a cycle theorist, and his timing was incorrect, but his fundamental thesis was not, at least not to me, a "nuts and bolts" guy whose only real interest in the financial markets was to accumulate enough capital to be able to purchase my freedom and be able to live a debt-free life on a productive (arable) piece of my own wholly-owned property with a deep well in a rural area, fund the education of my children and invest in productive tangibles owned by the family that would provide me with passive income and own my time. I have long been a Taoist whose "ambition" was to become a contemplative of sorts, given that metaphysically I'm a Zen Buddhist of the "Mind Only" school.
All that said (whew!), at very nearly 80 years of age, my microcosm--an autarchic one within my possibilities--seems to gybe with what you posit as the Russian and Chinese macrocosms, "nuts and bolts" societies as opposed to the "bells and whistles" values of the USA and Europe, neither of which has staying power as presently constituted. Thanks again for your very perceptive comment!
Taoism - truly the wisest of all theologies! And if you have followed it for the past 80 years, you were nearly co-existent with Bohr - any inspiration from there?
I have nothing but admiration for the Eastern philosophies, certainly compared to the mumbo-jumbo brain-stupefying idiocy that passes for religion in the West, I imagine you know exactly what I'm talking about.
Though personally I prefer to mix Taoism with esoteric Paganism, to give that grounded 'realism' in Nature's patterns, which I'm sure one day, one day, I'll give that constant year-long attention it richly deserves and rewards. Aspirations are beneficial. ;)
"Bells and Whistles" sounds so much nicer than the "Bread and Lethal Circuses" of Rome, the first psychopathic nation to unite Interest Bearing currencies, Fractional Reserve Banking, Standing Armies, Empire, Vast Wealth Gaps, Ultra-Corrupt "elites", and Genocide.
And humanity has rarely looked back since.
Sounds like you got out of your Skinnerian Wheel, aka 'the rat race', through intelligence and careful planning. Congrats to you! I hope the next gens appreciate this too rare opportunity they have been given, and some decide to protect it too for more gens to come.
The kibbutzniks were undone by trusting in the Israeli gummint, and the banksters - if I don't repeat myself. Hope you write a manual explaining all the pitfalls, and WHY some things are important.
Thanks! I'm soon to be 80 years old (ojalΓ‘), but became interested in Taoism at age 15 (1961) after reading Jack Kerouac's "On the Road" and deciding to read another of his novels called "The Dharma Bums". "Dharma", I asked myself. "What's that?" That novel was dedicated to Han Shan. Who? So I beat feet to the NY Public Library and thus my odyssey began. One thing led to another and I decided to become an Asian Studies major at an Ivy League university with wonderful professors in the then-tiny major. Yes, I'm familiar with Bohr, but for me the theoretical physicist who made the greater impression was the late David Bohm, whose 1980 "Wholeness and the Implicate Order" meshed nicely with my metaphysical beliefs. Much of his work was closely involved with that of Bohr.
I have a peculiar personal history and if you wish, I'd be glad to relate it to you privately, but am not sure how to go about that; if you're curious, please let me know how to contact you.
My son, his wife and my four grandchildren live on the same property as I do in South America. He is a US educated engineer, tri-lingual, who owns and operates a water well drilling business along with designing solar systems and irrigation systems such as we have on our property, which will be inherited by his children and will remain in the family for as long as is possible in this uncertain world. Please let me know if you wish to learn more about what I have planned for my remaining years and for the future of my family. I'd be delighted to share that as well, but don't wish to take up space here. I'm very grateful to our host and the varied but terrific commenter crew he's assembled.
I've heard of Bohm.. I think I assumed that Bohr and Bohm were the same person without ever thinking about it. :)
Have you read Fritjof Capra's 'The Tao of Physics' as well? No-one to my knowledge has listed the Eastern philosophies so well as he did in that book, although by that time I was already comfortably settled in my Pagan-Taoist ways.
I was raised a catholic til 5, then a protestant, realised Christianity was a bad joke at 14, 6 months of Atheism until I worked out that was even WORSE and made no sense whatsoever, went through Crowley, Buddhism, picking bits up from here and there, and ended up by my early 20s where I am now. The years have accreted layers of extra knowledge and awareness, as years tend to do.
I don't know how private substack chat is? I have this fear that every chat is open for others to read, but that would be a strange design!
all this bullshit about not giving the west an excuse is in fact giving them TIME to prepare for the coming larger war. I don't know why you people continue to act like letting an enemy who wants to kill you calmly load all his weapons instead of attacking him immediately when he is weak is a good idea!
If you are the weaker party you ATTACK AS HARD AS POSSIBLE as Iran did.
NO, the west does NOT want Russia to fight back and strike them- they LOVE the Russia that refuses to and they can cut to pieces
Scenario : Feint toward Kiev and all reserves sent up there , and then massive strike followed by ground forces in Odessa . Take out all transport links in initial strikes and then dig in . Costly , but strategically sound IMO.
Of course ground forces CAN reach Odessa. Rivers are fordable, and marines are trained specifically to do that, alongside combat engineers. Russia also has amphibious tanks.
But Moscow also has absolutely no intention of doing a 'Krynky', and will wait until they can secure what they can take.
It will be hard, and expensive in lives and materiel.
But it can be done, and will be done in all likelihood.
Landing crafts are for a seaborne invasion and the British-Ukrainians made sure to reduce that possibility. London would very much like to end with Odessa in their hands, instead.
When you look at the Kursk incursion , its possible to set up a sizeable force without the opposition working out its purpose . The Ukrainian forces are being bled dry by the current situation and at some point this strategy will become viable . It cuts off re-supply from the sea and that can restrict logistics for Ukraine . This strategy also restricts strikes on Odessa which will help Russian logistics . If Europe decides to get directly involved then the Russians would have "casus belli" and could strike them directly. The caveat on all this is that I can only see what the media will allow and do not have all the information and its all speculation.
Yes, that is the only way to thoroughly neutralize Ukraine. It will be a landlocked rump state with a Russia-compatible government and serve as a buffer between Russia and Western Europe. John Mearsheimer has made this point on many occasions.
Dude! Thoses doomers are flooding substack. If you guys would zoom out beyond the psyop PR campaigns, yiu would see that on the macro level time is ticking much faster for the West then for Russia/China/Iran/NK. A couple of successful regime changes or blown up gas tanks won't change that the fact the west is effictively broke, deindustrialised and has become so dumb that institutional failure is common place. Just chill and watch the empire decline.
On the macro level the West removed Venezuela and Syria from the chessboard (Syria alone is a catastrophic defeat for Russia/Iran/China), is about to do it to Cuba too, Iran is seriously weakened and in the process of being given the Syria treatment, all of the post-Soviet space except for Belarus has been flipped, or is in the process of being flipped, and Russia is being mercilessly bombed 24/7 while its leadership sings the praises of the people who are doing the bombing.
If that is the Western Nazis losing, I don't want to imagine what them winning looks like...
How all these things so fully escape the attention of the commenters here is something I will never understand. One might add that American bonds are still being bought, so that means everybody BUT America is paying for the war. But sure, the US is mere minutes, if not seconds, from imploding.
1. Syria is a catastrophic defeat for Russia? Why exactly? Maybe an inconvenience, a setback, but catastrophic defeat? If you describe regime change in Syria as a catastrophe, what do you call the outcome of twenty years US war in Afghanistan?
2. Practically nobody in the US thinks that the Iran war was a successful one for Trump. In my opinion, not even Trump believes it.
>Syria is a catastrophic defeat for Russia? Why exactly?
Because you haven't looked at a map. The way the dominos fall is:
Syria -> Iran -> Caucasus and Central Asia -> Russia -> China.
Now we are at the second stage, enabled precisely by the fall of Syria.
This sequence is so threatening that Russia was obliged to nuke Turkey to zero in order to protect Syria, but when Putin refuses to defend even official Russian territory from NATO missile attacks, well, what can we expect him to do outside Russia...
>Practically nobody in the US thinks that the Iran war was a successful one for Trump
Just a few months before Syria fell you could hear all sorts of loud proclamations about how Assad had won the war and the US had been defeated. Even though Idlib was not under Syrian control and the US occupied the eastern third of the country. How did that end?
Similarly, Iran's goal for this war had to be the physical removal of all US forces from the Middle East. Total physical removal. So that no new war can be started. Was that done? No, it wasn't.
So the stage is set of the next phase in the weakening of Iran with the coming resumption of the war.
Ah, so you are one of those naive souls who has still not figured out that Al Qaeda was created and always controlled by the West, which is why it somehow magically never attacks Israel but only does damage to the US's enemies.
I am sure that back in 1987 or so you would have been saying that the idea that the USSR would imminently break up and become a US colony is foolish too.
Syria was a catastrophic loss for Russia because Syrian airspace is now conveniently open for western bombers, Israel destroyed all of Syrian air defense and most of its other weapons, the remainder of which were sent to Ukraine, and because Israel and Turkey now occupy much of Syria which may soon be used to attack Lebanon. (edited to correct misstatement - "Iran")
The outcome of the US war in Afghanistan is irrelevant, and it is complicated by the fact that the US rarely fights wars to win, but only to disrupt.
The thing about the Iran war(s?) is that they do not belong in the past tense. They are ongoing, and the US has in fact accomplished some things good for the empire. Iran has very helpfully destroyed a good bit of Arab oil production, for example, making the Europeans even more dependent on American energy - a fact that was used just last week by Trump in various of the threats he made. And the war has endangered part of the belt and road program as well as threatened some of the oil routes to China. It has also allowed Trump to run an incredible scam on the markets allowing him to dish out inside information to important people.
"Israel and Turkey now occupy much of Syria which may soon be used to attack Iran". Israeli ground troops marching from Syria through Iraq? Israeli airbases setup in Syria? Please don't suggest the Turks are going to attack Iran.
Western bombers flying through Syrian airspace to attack Russia? From where? Israel? Jordan? Bombers from NATO bases in Turkiye make a detour over Syria to attack Russia?
"The outcome of the US war in Afghanistan is irrelevant, and it is complicated by the fact that the US rarely fights wars to win, but only to disrupt." Bagram airbase was the size of a small town intended to be a permanent US base. Combined with Kandahar base they housed at their peak 66,000 US personnel - larger than S Korea. The strategic location was optimal for the pivot to China.
The threat to Russia is to its soft underbelly -- Syria will be used to destroy Iran, in fact it already is being used for that, and to breed jihadist for the next phases of the operation, then once Iran has been destroyed the jihaidsts will be pumped from there directly into Russia's southern regions and into Central Asia, for where both Russia and China will be terminally destabilized.
The problem with domino theories is they require you to be everywhere all at once. Any defeat anywhere leads to the defeat of the next domino, etc.
Indochina had to defended otherwise Thailand would fall, then more dominos leading to the US. In practice, the defeat in Vietnam didn't affect American security.
Iran and Afghanistan are key strategic interests to China, Russia and Pakistan, and American efforts have and will fail.
Halford Mackinder's Heartland/Rim theory is the rationalization that US and Israeli interests are the same. In reality, Syria's fall only helped Greater Israel.
It just proves that they function perfectly fine (imagine my shock) and that decapitation strike doctrine is a joke. Cannot decapitate serious countries.
They cannot even decapitate militias. It works with corrupt compradors, though.
I really think that given the amount of comments people (bots?) like you spent on seeding doubt and distorting the picture, this must be part of a organized psyop. Anyway... The rogue empire can cause trouble for sure but it canmot prevent its eventual collapse. Just look at major indicators like life expectancy, and development indicators. Everything is falling apart in the west. You seem to imply that you are actually anti imperialist so let me comfort you: the world will move beyond current imperialist designs and the elites that are currently syphoning off the wealth of everyone else will soon be powerless.
The real psy-op are Ritter, Johnson, Escobar, Martyanov, and all the rest. Even Mersheimer.
The goal of that psy-op is to lull the victims into complacency by the constant incessant parroting of the "Russia is winning" and "Multipolarity is inevitable". Meanwhile the empire is gaining ground everywhere and tightening the noose around the neck of the designated victims, who are too confused and paralyzed in their thinking to escape on time.
Russia is winning it cannot be otherwise, itβs in their nature. You talk a lot but do you know what molded the Russian soul? Go back to the battle for Stalingrad and perhaps, I repeat perhaps you will understand, Russia was brought on its knees there was only defeat, but there happened the turning point, the power of resurrection and the Will to survive. This breaking point of first utmost desperation was a necessity to bring forward the power to resist and thereβs wasnβt any choice left, WIN OR DIE. This is what no American or European Army is capable of, they win up to the final point where they lose and this is for Russians the hard lesson Stalingrad learned them, so whatβs happening now in mother Russia with NATOβs desperate agony they know perfectly how to handle it and turn it in their favor. NATO is fighting itself into a collective cemetery.
Those reporters/analysts provide a counter-perspective to the corporate media reports/propaganda aimed at complacency of public opinion for support of the war.
I know of no other journalist who has covered the brics developments than pepe escobar. And he has acknowledged their setbacks as well.
But the macro view that has not been mentioned is the dollar parallel. The loss of the petrodollars returning to US markets from the gulf states, the nakedness of the inability of the US military to protect the monarchies, the inflationary global stress that has not yet completely worked its way the global monetary systems, the drawdown of the strategic reserves to critical levels, and finally the acceleration to float a gold backed renimbi currency, which is discussed in detail by vince lanci at goldfix substack. Its important because it begs the question, how is treasury backed reserve currency going to compete with a 100% gold back chinese reserve currency?
One clue, and its just an outlier, but with intent is the one ounce 250th anniversary US MINT coin priced at $19,600...that is beyound a reasonable premium when spot gold is trading at $4000/ounce.
Militarily, iran has won the battle for the strait of hormuz. That is obvious. But it has not won the war.
The war will be won or lost on the ground. In order for the genocidal state of isreal to be defeated it has to be conquered on the ground, an invasion. Same with iran.
We are in the very early stages of this war. A Russian security official has said the regional wars that are forming into a global war will take "20 to 30 years to resolve". Thats a long time. Simplicius will be quoted far and wide.
Hegemon can wage 1000 years war, for it draws resources from much of Earth, whereas stupid Russians are relying on mercy of the anglosaxons.
The only way forward, remove ukrana from the map, depopulate: drive out/exterminate every living soul, establish nuke perimeter ON IT against europe, (short and medium range, they shit their pants on thought of those toys) and announce: βAre You Not Entertained!!!β
Let the scourge bathe in their own filth from now on.
Russians have everything to live on this planet, quite comfortably, well provided they get rid of communism, once and for all.
Ding a ling. The US couldnβt wage a 2 month war against iran, at the end of which most of its overpriced military tat needed a sedative and 2 year lie down, itβs tranny friendly βinvasion forceβ never made it out of the gay bars in san fran and itβs βleadershipβ demonstrated key stone cops level of incompetence.
1000 year wars donβt exist, and the US as a functioning society will be lucky to last 10 years.
The politicians are spoiled degenerates take australia for example the politicians are biggest load of fuckheads zionist appeasing primate garbage , fucked the country to oblivion , mongrelised it to shit and its not much better than a 2$ whorehouse
The unsettling message for the wider west (forget bonkers Ukraine) is that backing deeper strikes into Russia is not bringing Russia to the table, is not bringing Russia down internally, is not imploding its economy. It is ensuring that Western Europe will be left with far less of anything valuable in Ukraine at the end of it- which will be when Russia has control of Kiev and decision making processes, to establish an electoral victory. Sooner than you think since Ukraine cannot survive another winter- the west cannot afford for this to go on into another winter and then absorb the tide of refugees. All europe is achieving right now, is running the very real risk of its own fringe being turned into bombed out craters like Ukraine with the possibility of even deeper penetration by Russian attacks. To what end? To this- whole new governmental regimes across europe replacing the warmongers, to finally settle what could have been settled to far better return for europe years ago.
And no, the US is not going to ride to the rescue, and this applies whatever the November outcome. It wants an expensive embarrassment in Ukraine to top its expensive Iran embarrassment like a crater in its own head. Hence Trump keeps saying- we sell em weapons give then info back up, but that is all. (implication- if they lose, it will be down to them not least for refusing to co operate with our efforts to settle the war when they could have come out still standing).
I do not think the governments in Europe can be changed anymore than in Washington. Presidents and Prime Ministers are cycled through as they lose usefulness, but permanent governance in the US and Europe continues. We are living through the collapse of the American Empire with its' vassal states. The modern aristocracy, essentially the donor kleptocrat class will not relinquish power and the ability to plunder what wealth is left. In school we studied the collapse of the Roman Empire. Just as we saw how the British Empire collapsed. The most sobering aspect is this is the first Empire collapse in an age of nuclear weapons.
The donor kleptocracy (such as it can survive this upheaval at all) will follow the money, Brian. Whoever does take over to dig western Europe out of the dirt is going to have one hell of a job on their hands,
This is America's war on Russia, the original plan being take control of Russia then use their assets against China. Europe is under the control of its EU bureaucracy (theoretically) in actuality it directly takes orders from Washington - so until the US begins sending in European troops to replace Ukraine's now mostly dead Europe is of little consequence. Looks likely the US manipulators of Trump (the real powers) are planning to start with the UK having organised the disposal of their weak leader who had nevertheless said no to sending troops to Iran for the US war to take over the Middle East there..
The US wanted control of Russian assets (along with Ukrainian ones). That hope has gone along with turning Russia against China. There is no Act II for the US here, beyond how it might profit from Europe-Ukraine fighting on.
China, being in the position the US was in before previous world wars will almost certainly hold back until the side that can't lose becomes evident. They can then tip the balance to win and afterwards lend to both sides to rebuild from what's left. That virtually guarantees the Chinese century at the top as the Americans just finished with theirs. Hopefully their system won't hold us entirely responsible (as the Americans enabled the French to do Germany after WW1) which of course led straight to WW2. WW3 looks inevitable now so the survivors will need to come up with plans to avoid WW4, which I don't believe would be as low tech as expected. Hopefully the Chinese won't squander their victory as it looks like the Americans are about to do their previous victories, rather belatedly, entirely, I would argue, unnecessarily..
VW firing 100.000 workers in Germany. The economic developments in Germany threaten the stability of the whole EU.
The German political establishment thinking about the prohibition of a party which is already first in several BundeslΓ€nder. Directly renouncing democracy and rule of law.
I do not see Germany or any European country fit for a serious conflict with Russia, article 5 or not.
"I do not see Germany or any European country fit for a serious conflict with Russia, article 5 or not."
This makes a lot of sense, but I still think you're going to be surprised. For one thing, if I were a European leader I would think I could wage an air war against Russia without fear either of invasion or nuclear retaliation. I'd think Russia would fold in some meaningful way before really dishing out serious consequences. There's no way Europe could mount a land invasion of Russia, but a limited war along a long contact line would be very convenient for many reasons.
Cutie, you can take a girl out of Kharkov, but you can never take Dnepropetrovsk out of her. Cannot figure out your origin story but you've been a busy bee here working around the clock. Confusing genders, genres and doing other little womanly things.
Have you heard about the most boring resignation ever of Herr Starmer over la scandalo with three Ukranian male models?
Normally a society goes to war, to get rid of the surplus of young man that destabilizes the country. Either this young man die or they are the winners and comming home with a lot of loot, bringing wealth and social stability. But this time, there is no surplus of young man in the West!
"democracy on the march" has reached the EU courts:
"The EUβs top court has ruled that private individuals can face criminal prosecution for posting RT videos on public websites, widening the blocβs crackdown on Russian media.
The Court of Justice of the European Union issued the ruling on Thursday in a case from Germany, where three people are being prosecuted for publishing RT DE videos on a freely accessible website."
That strike was, technically, 2 nights ago, on Wednesday - if counting European timing GMT/UTC, and not Pacific Time PT.
Russia needs peace negotiations with Ukraine to stop hostilities and turn Ukraine into it's ally. Divide it politically into a peace and war camps. Zelensky can't negotiate, it means end if him, including legal prosecution and life sentence. Putting pressure on command posts, that including Kiev hotels with mercenaries, and later on the whole government and Zelensky's lifes, would trigger or deepen that split.
That internal conflict will cause bloody civil war in Ukraine, it's partition into 2-3 pieces. The largest part will be associated with Russia, controlling access to the whole Black Sea, taking over Odessa ports to Romanian border and Transnistria.
The earlier plans to smuggle nationalistic rump state from divided Ukraine into European Union and into NATO are falling now apart. There was a proposal to create Polish-Ukrainian state union, with millions of Ukrainians flooding south-east Poland and granting them autonomy. But within the last month there is a very strong political opposition from Poland to such developments, and that also includes radical change in public opinion. That opposition is associated with the USA interests in Europe.
So time has came when Europe's Epsteined elites need Zelensky to wreak havoc as much as possible, escalate into wider war, including Belarus and to involve deeper all Europe into conflict with Russia. To divert her from Iran, Israel, Middle East and the other parts of world.
How did you beat me to first comment?π
I have intuition when a new post will appear
The S. is S., therefore knows when articles are scheduled. ;)
A bot and APIs. AI killed the Internet.
Yes, it is and it does. That's why it's replying fast
Not yet: we have the "SPECTRE"...
"Zelensky can't negotiate, it means end if him, including legal prosecution and life sentence"
Nope. He'll retire to his mansion in Florida or Hawaii.
Ukrainian (Judeo)-Banderite leaders that retire in the West tend to get boinked eventually. By Ukrainians, usually.
More likely he'll join Jewish Ukraine billionaire Igor Kolomoisky in Israel
Ya gotta pick a pocket or twoooooβ¦.
That easily could be like escaping from Hiroshima to Nagasaki.
To divert which? Russia, or the EUSSR? Strategically, it could be either - or both.
"Her" I have meant Russia.
I would not call that the EU. It's eunuch creature
Mother Russia, of course. And EUnuchs indeed.
That cardboard spastic Starmer is now being tipped for NATO Secretary General. He canβt define a woman, so heβs perfectly qualified:
"That internal conflict will cause bloody civil war in Ukraine, it's partition into 2-3 pieces."
I am not so sure about that. There is a great deal of antipathy among Ukrainians towards Russophones. It has been the unifying force that has kept the conflict going this long. The Ukrainians who do not see this as their fight have, for the most part, left the country, and it appears that the balance are nominally loyal to the regime.
I think what will actually happen is that Russia will achieve its stated military goals within the next 6 months while bleeding the Ukraine military dry, Ukraine will sue for peace, and it will become a rump state with a reorganized government, at which point Russia will have immense leverage in Ukraine's government and will root out the Nazis that are left. Ukraine will return to being a vassal state to Russia, and the Western kleptocracy will have to find another small country to launder their money through.
From the last public census there were over 11 mln ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Most Ukrainians speak Russian as mother tongue.
Russophobes will be leaving Ukraine to Galicia and to Poland.
Russophiles will be coming back home from Europe, Russia, Belarus and elsewhere.
There is already an internal split in Ukraine for war and anti-war, those 2 mld avoiding forceful mobilisation, their families are in the second camp.
When front collapses, Zelensky's clique liquidated, state disintegrating and no money from the West for pensioners, social security, civil servants and soldiers, the only option would be asking Russia for help. Russia will give them work in Novarussia, rebuilding all destroyed industry.
Dude, the last full public census in Ukraine was conducted on December 5, 2001. Before that, it was conducted in 1991.
I think any conclusions derived from the last public census are sketchy at best. Plus, it included the breakaway oblasts where most of the Russophones lived.
Yes, census was long ago. I have quoted it because the other data is sketchy.
Since then many Russian left, especially after 2014.
But still just before war 2022 some 40% were Russian speakers and 20% bilingual. Some 45% of published books and newspapers were in Russian.
Now estimates 15-33% are left.
Ministry of culture reported 65% Kiev kids speak Russian at home and during class brakes at school. Odessa is even higher, further away from central administration.
After defeat of Ukraine in war they will become Russia's ally
Other than the analysis, I always appreciate learning new words. βHeuristic β.
It's used in outdoor education e.g. 'heuristic traps' which are erroneous rules of thumb that lead to poor decision making such as thinking some loudmouth domineering person in a group is the best person to guide a final decision.
This is what Grok says: Heuristic (noun): A practical, rule-of-thumb approach to problem-solving that gets you βgood enoughβ results quickly, without needing perfect information or exhaustive computation.
Heuristic thinking is what was posited by Daniel Kahneman (2011) as βSystem 1β, a fast decision making system responsible for intuitive decision making based on emotions, vivid imagery, and associative memory. βSystem 2β is a slow system that observes System 1βs outputs, and intervenes when βintuitionβ is insufficient.
So Putin did the usual, and increasingly rare, strike on non-significant targets, so that he could show that he is "doing something", meanwhile absolutely nothing is done to meaningfully decrease the AFU/NATO's ability to wage war on Russia, and the frontlines are increasingly bogged down.
In June the land recovered was, depending on the estimate, between 150 and 370 km^2, but even the highest estimate is much lower than it for June 2025. So things are going precisely in the opposite direction of where they should be going. How amazing is that?
And Putin continues to sit on his hands as the first ballistics flew to Moscow. This time shot down. But when the salvos increase in size they won't be all shot down.
Not impressed by another couple of gas stations getting knocked out?
No.
Weapons are still flowing into Ukraine with no interference, command and control centers are untouched, the Ukronazi elite is protected.
Zero deterrence has been enforced and the capability of the Ukronazis to strike at and fight Russia has not been reduced
That about says it.
Holy crap. Will you and GM go and get a room?
And, if you're feeling kinky, drag Denis along with you. Sheesh!
Denis is devious; he could settle his business with GM and leave Helena in the lurch.
I block pigs.
Can you explain idea that destroying as stations helped RUssian AA defense, and that Ukro drones are now less active.
CORRECT GM.
"One of the major fires in Kyiv was recorded at the territory of the Chayka transport and logistics center. Its main importance for the AFU lay in the fact that its base was suitable for storing unmanned aerial vehicles, warheads and ammunition for them, as well as components for weapons and equipment arriving from abroad."
Really. Glad the AFR got around to this task.
Likewise, five years in, the sprawling Kiev Antonov aviation complex was only recently attacked as well. At the same time, major transport access from Odessa and across the Dnieper to the Donbas front also remained completely intact until recently. Yet Major refineries and gas hubs are still operational.
BOTTOM LINE: The AFR has done a miserable job-- intentionally so-- in allowing Ukrainian war fighting capacity completely functional.
Meanwhile Russia is drained of human, financial and industrial capacity. Huge resources are siphoned out of the general economy while casualties easily exceed a half million, probably closer to 750K. With Putin's "Inchworm Strategy" Russia has played into the hands of NATO.
More recently Putin blew the Fall and Winter on 25-26 in a circle jerk with Witkoff and Kushner even as Trump tried to assassinate him. Even into this year Putin was still entranced with the Spirit of Anchorage.
As usual, Putin was played just the way he was by Merkel and Hollande during the Minsk Accords phantom years. During that time Ukraine was armed to the teeth.
With this dreadful record it's clear: Putin has got to go but he's too deeply entrenched and protected by a Praetorian Guard.
At present rates the Ukraine War will drag on for years, leaving Russia etiolated and vulnerable to attack in '29-30.
Nobody knows what the casualty numbers are. It's probably not worth speculating about. There is no indication that the Russians are not able to replace losses - whatever they are - AND generate more combat power.
Russian population today is about what US population was during WW2. The US lost 400k+ dead and 1-2 million wounded. The demographic impact on the nation was nil - even less than nil as a baby boom followed the war.
Thats not to say that each death is not a horrible individual tragedy. The point is to keep it in perspective. It's also important to remember how the pervasive media presence in the world amplifies the impact of death and wounding. Again, not to minimize the loss of father, son or husband.
In many ways this war is relatively low intensity.
Perhaps it's low intensity partly explains why the pressure to reform the Military, MIC and State is not as intense and urgent as it might be.
Green Midget still believes the holes in his garden are the work of moles and that the collapse of the bamboo roof on his yak-dung hut was caused by lightning. Nothing fazes him; he has lived 600 lives and fought in 166 warsβincluding the Peloponnesian War and, even earlier, the conflict between *Homo sapiens* and Neanderthals, of which he remains the sole survivor.
So he's like Casca...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casca_(series)
130 is a couple? Chip
We are supposed to be very impressed when Ukraine does the same in Crimea. Its the end , the end I tell you for Russia. Forgetting history lessons that Russia burned Moscow before Napolean reached it.The west is utterly clueless about what they are dealing with. As with Iran they thought they could mop up in a day.
They hang their hopes on regime change, and when it doesn't work, they try sanctions, and after that fails they're all out of ideas and capabilities.
I believe regime change has only worked a handful of times, and sanctions probably never, but I could be wrong.
Regime changes have its merits when you are talking about smaller countries who for starters can hardly shoot back. So Syria was sanctioned into oblivion (when Assad fell its GDP was 15% of what it was before the sanctions so buying of the Syrian elites was easy - same playbook as Venezuela). Now we have Al-Queda governing Syria and not sure what regime change in Venezuela actually accomplished. In the middle east Israel is a long time ally and specializing in killing just about everything in sight besides being completely lawless. The big states are much more difficult to overthrow like Iran and Russia (via proxy Ukraine) and although they certainly would like to see sanctions lifted they are strong enough to wheather it all out. Both conflicts are lost but the US acts as if they are in a position to issue strong demands. Sofar the total implosion of US military power and standing since 1991 has completely escaped the Washington crowd. Thats why they will be stupid enough to execute exactly the same (failed) playbook against China, with encirclement (Malakka strait), arming the proxy (Taiwan) and sanctioning it blindly. The idea is stupid
Persevere with us, Slavyansk urban battle is about to start.
And?
That solves what?
SMO goal No. 1
And also we will be able to troll you non stop.
And the SMO solves what problems?
Then just trolling remains.
Denazification? Nope. Neutrality? Nope. Demilitarization? Nope.
Even if Kramatorsk and Slaviansk were to fall today, so what? It's not like the West or its Ukrainian buttbois would say "well, I guess we just lost, fair and square."
Ah, you old repetitive old bore. lmao
Step by step, grandpops.
Which West? You are constantly telling us, even under this article, that Europeans are cowards and slaves. So which tough West are you talking about?
Also you are telling us USA does not want this war, it is just (agency-less) Europeans that want to drag USA into the war.
So which effing West are you talking about? lmao
The Americans were not enthusiastic about wwi or WWII either, until they got stuck in..
I have never said that europeans lack agency, although they sre cowards and slaves. Like the courtiers they are, they are always trying to bend the ear of Master.
There's a lot to do here if you find yourself in this city.
totally irrelevant except in depopulating RF's young man demographic
Always cute to listen to frens, from a country whose last fight on the home turf was in 1812, educating people on the ground what is relevant to them.
So βPutinβ [standing in for the entire Russian military brass who actually have the training and experience to decide on appropriate military actions?] takes no βmeaningful actionsβ to reduce drone attacks on Russia? I fear you fail to see the interconnectivity between the actions described above and reducing Ukraineβs drone capabilities. Most electric power and distribution stations near the front have been destroyed. Therefore, to charge the batteries allowing the drones to fly, generators are needed. Generators use fuel from gas stationsβthemselves only able to pump fuel by using generators. Destroy the gas stations, no fuel for any purpose. No Ukrainian drones can fly. So I guess Russian military commanders are smarter than me or you, and maybe βPutinβ too.
>So βPutinβ [standing in for the entire Russian military brass who actually have the training and experience to decide on appropriate military actions?]
This is your fundamental mistake.
Putin does not stand for the Russian military brass, there is a deep conflict between them going back to 2014.
The General Staff wanted to go in with full force back in 2014, Putin vetoed it.
The General Staff did the Crimean operation behind Putin's back, Putin had to accept it because he would never have survived handing Crimea back once it had been recovered. But he still tried to do exactly that in Istanbul in 2022.
The General Staff/GRU sent Strelkov on a mission to Slavyansk to present Putin with another finished fact and force his hand to intervene back in 2014, but this time Putin successfully refused.
It was the military and not Putin who went in directly into the Donbass during the battles in the second half of 2014 and early 2015, on their own initiative. But all they could do with plausible deniability was to ensure the LNR and DNR's survival, nothing more than that. Still, without that intervention the LNR and DNR would have been run over.
Meanwhile Putin did Minsk, against the General Staff's objections.
The General Staff wanted to go in seriously in Syria, with a large ground force, a lot more aviation, etc., and to clear it all of jihadists, to the last man. Putin vetoed it and did Astana instead. We know how that ended.
The General Staff wanted to start a war with Ukraine ever since 2016 or so, Putin did not allow it, and in the end did the SMO.
The General Staff had proper plans for February 2022, Putin was the one who then went through them with the red marker and butchered the whole thing by forbidding the military from striking anything of real substance and imposing the absurd self defeating rules of engagement that doomed the first month of the SMO.
The General Staff was firmly against Istanbul and the goodwill gestures, Putin was the one who was so easily deceived for the umpteenth time.
The General Staff wanted an immediate total mobilization in April 2022, Putin did not allow it, then only did a partial one.
The General Staff has been insisting on serious mobilization ever since, Putin refuses.
The General Staff tried to start a serious infrastructure campaign in late 2022, Putin was the one who stopped it any time it threatened to actually crippled Ukraine.
Putin was the one who allowed the enemy to build up their drone and missile strike capabilities with Anchorage, the General Staff were the ones pulling their hairs in desperation.
The General Staff wanted nuclear strikes on the border crossings with NATO ever since mid-2022 -- I keep talking about that here, but it is not even my original idea, it was discussed in the Russian media by people connected to the military already at that time. Putin is the one vetoing it.
The General Staff have wanted to take out the drone production facilities in Europe. Guess who vetoes it?
Etc. etc. etc.
Do you really have sources on all these claims about General Staff differences visavi Putin? One example is the βproper plans of feb 2022β which Putin red-markedβ¦I doubt there is any account of that.
Everything I listed has been discussed in various channels, I am not making it up.
But I also don't have the paper trail, we're talking countless materials over nearly 15 years.
What are these "various channels"? What are these "countless materials"?
No, he doesn'tβhe only has a crystal ball, and thatβs always been broken... best to just ignore him!
Based on how events turned out since 2014, I think GMβs information is likely more true than not. Putin is very cautious lawyer, while General Staff career military. Nothing has happened since 2014 that signals Putin is effective or aggressive war time leader and I doubt the G.S. Is as incompetent as a lot of these decisions entail.
Also, why is this still a SMO? EVERYONE knows the whole West is waging WAR or preparing for war with Russia?
>Putin is very cautious lawyer
Note that this has absolutely nothing to do with Putin's actions and inactions.
The reasons are much deeper and much more sinister
Russia was in no position militairy and sanction proof wise to take on the (US/NATO) response this sort of action would entail in 2014. It was ready in 2022 and then acted. The genius which makes him president can handle this sort of chess . All those arm chair generals here are just pathetic.
Really, Putin was fooled many times. He admitted that himself. Now LAvrov admitted that they had been fooled by Trump ion Alaska.
Putin is not a bright leader.
they both have said literally that the west is not agreement-capable yet they still seek agreements from them
the JUSA is violating the MOU and attempting to change its terms in REAL TIME now
βBarbarΒ Β pierreΒ
Yes, the echoes of Stalin's wishful thinking are strong in Putin. His persistent begging since 1999 to be considered an "equal partner" in Imperialism is nauseating. He was strung along for 22 years, while trying to earn kudos in Washington with numerous UNSC votes from Russia in support of Yanki sanctions/aggression against/occupation of other nations, e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, whereas their plan was always to fracture & disarm Russia and provide Putin a similar fate as Milosevic, Hussein or Ghadaffi.β?
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/12/22/ffci-d22.html
Precisely as you wrote.
I don't know how exact all of these statements really are, but I do agree with on Putin, I wrote about it already end of last year:
https://finnandreen.substack.com/p/putins-old-and-recent-mistakes-in?utm_source=publication-search
Excellent write-up, Finn.
Look, we can understand your disappointment at finding nothing but incompetent professionals among the eight psychiatrists you consulted, and we sympathizeβbut don't lose hope by thinking they're all like that. If paying for the consultations is a problem, we'll organize a fundraiser here.
Your fundamental mistake is engaging the clanking ratchets of what passes for your brain and not taking down the pics of Putin riding a horse shirtless.
Gay drivel (or dribble).
>Destroy the gas stations, no fuel for any purpose. No Ukrainian drones can fly.
Delusional nonsense once again.
Ukraine has been running on mobile tankers for a while now.
The military will have its fuel no matter what and the drones will keep flying.
You won't see any effect on the frontlines from the strikes on the gas stations.
Perhaps not from the gas stations set up for consumers, at least not directly (shutting down consumer transport by automobiles does indirectly hurt Kiev's ability to wage war), but very definitely there are dramatic effects on the frontlines from Russia's strikes on fuel storage facilities and on the "mobile tankers" you cite.
Taking out fuel storage facilities in particular is an effective strategy. Kiev can't do that except in an ankle-biting way against Russia, but Russia can do that in a massively strategically effective way against the Nazis.
But why go for gas stations while keeping the data centers, command and control centers, military and political leadership, and logistcs in Western Ukraine intact?
Which one would win the war most quickly?
Flattening Kiev.
HOW
with what?
Those centers are not in Ukraine.
There are some in Ukraine too.
Off limits for strikes, of course, because dear partners, etc.
they CANNOT HIT ANYTHING in W Ukranus
that's the point! They only have nuclear strikes now. They have used Oreshnik for what, how? Nothing significant. It's clearly too expensive for tactical purposes.
by the time the munitions RF has which can reach W Ukranus get there, everything can be moved after ppl finish their coffee and fuck a hooker.
You know, the reason they call it "propaganda for morons" is that it works on stupid people. If you fall for it that's not a compliment to your ability to discern truth from abject propaganda for morons.
This is pure nonsense: "they CANNOT HIT ANYTHING in W Ukranus
that's the point! They only have nuclear strikes now."
In point of fact Russia has a very wide range of conventional arms that can easily strike targets in the west of Ukraine. A very wide variety of longer range drones, like Gerans, both prop and the newer jet powered versions, can easily reach those targets, as can a very wide variety of cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles and much more.
Did you use that old crystal ball again, or is there a newer one? ...Here's a tip: that one's useless too.
Mobile Tanker, you are just *so* stupid.
Why so many insults and condescending remarks? Why not contribute to conversation with facts or thoughtful rebuttals?
GM is neither factual or thoughtful.
are you serious?
to what do you attribute the sequence of purely IDIOTIC and pusillanimous actions by this "great" leader?
The TWO THINGS they need most....1000km tactical ballistics and AWACS coverage....are nowhere to be found.
AFU is raping them using a commercial satellite constellation and free panels coming over the borders en masse after 1000s of fucking TANKS came the same way.
you think all this shit was invisible and snuck over? FFS, they were disassembling planes and leaving them in border forests at first bc the west was afraid of Russia. Now they piss in Russia's face and do it in broad daylight.
Putin went to Anchorage desperate for a deal and he got one that was worth the toilet paper it wasn't even printed on. A sure whatever dude from Daddy Trump combined with an eyeroll. And here are the fruits of that "deal"- another escalation from the west
And the mobile tankers are filled up from either thin air or unicorns pissing in them are they? Cretinous drivel as usual
LOL a troll is never happy.
That's their job - to spread negativity among the population. Woe is us! All is lost! It's all incompetent Putin's fault! Russia's fate was sealed when they lost Navalny and Strelkov! Woe is us!
But trolling can brings us some joy. There is always sunshine above the clouds.
Technically speaking, Strelkov is still with us unless I missed something. We are not monsters, you know. Angry birds patriots are also alive and well. Very angry opposition to the brutal regime along with a few very graphic figures of liberals who would dispatch their hurt feelings to WashPost while sitting pretty in an upgraded gulag. Democracy is dying in darkness, y'all.
I meant they are out of the picture now - one is dead and the other removed from the scene.
All the world's a stage. Speaking of the scene, the trio of tonight is outperforming. There must be something good happening on the front lines.
Da, I've noticed a definite uptick in hysteria.
One is still asleep, but his time zone is about to get comfy. ;)
I do not think history will be kind to Putin when final analysis is done. Books, articles and movies will be made, as truth comes out it will be clear how feckless and weak he has been before and during the SMO.
I donβt know if Russia state will allow this in their public domaine, but it will be available outside Russia.
π
As if you have any clue at all as to what is actually happening, and what Putin SHOULD be doing. Armchair General. Be quiet, and observe.
I am not the one who got Russia into the situation where it is bombed 24/7 but does not fight back, i.e. from a superpower to a Yugoslavia/Libya/Syria/etc. status.
Putin did that.
So the argument from authority doesn't really hold much weight here, because the authority has been conclusively demonstrated to be anything but
"I am not the one who got Russia into the situation"
The whole of the Zio-Kike Collective Waste put The Putin in this situation.
He has MAYBE made mistakes but where it is at now is far beyond the simple state of retaliation without objective goals.
The usual ramblings of the embittered old fag , with the Putin fixation.
Russia was a basket case when Putin took over , on every economic, social and other indicator it has increased over 10 fold in that time as a simple web search can prove.
Why is this toxic old fag propagandist still posting here?
Grow a set and ban him. Or me , couldnβt care less at this point
hoholover bs
Some will never get it, a pity. This is my answer to GM no hate speech but just the lessons my father told me, he fought the Russians with the Germans in WWII. Russia has to be brought on its knees, the situation has to be so desperate that youβre almost begging for let me die on the spot. But in Russians thereβs a force deep down of resurrection and will for survival, more than in any other people. Thatβs the alchemy of what first looks like defeat and than a power that comes from the soul, the Russian soul and the reaction that almost explodes is WIN OR DIE. This was the returning point and the lesson my father told me, this happened in the battle for Stalingrad. The German army could never win, their uniforms were to cute and their boots and guns froze to the ground and most of all their latrines, shithouses were utmost deadly. So GM keep up the fight and the faith.
Insignificant targets? Frontlines bogged down? Did you read the article? Or are you calling it bullshit? Chip
1) The rate of advance has been most optimistically cut in half this year, and that is relative to the already snail pace of last year, at which the SMO would last another 80+ years.
2) Yes, insignificant targets. The significant targets, the elimination of which would win the war, are well known and continue to be untouched, thus by definition whatever has been hit last night is insignificatn
Insignificant only to a troll.
look you wanna believe, I get it....but what has changed with EVERY INCH of territory that RF has gained?
Nothing. The AFU has gotten ever-more aggressive and successful at attrition.
They've also gained ground near stepnogorsk...RF's advances are PATHETIC. This war will not end for 100 years at this rate.
These are FACTS. Just bc you don't like to hear them doesn't make those speaking them trolls.
AFU is going to be getting ballistic missiles. More drones. They will get the benefit of production in the EU which is NOT HINDERED by any sanctions and yes the EU *can* and WILL outproduce Russia on these.
And the EU has been offlimits for Putin despite its being a belligerent and direct participant.
For fuck's sake, Vovchan and Lexus just trolled the Estonian FM and there ACTUALLY IS - JUST AS I SAID THERE WAS - direct participation and coordination between EU/NATO states and Ukranus in drone strikes on Russia!
Mfing IDOITS here told me that all those NATO ELINT and ISR asset that just HAPPENED to be in the air during the SPIEF strike were purely coincidental. Fuck you they were coincidental. The EU/NATO states are ACTIVE participants now and Russia does NOTHING.
Bravo Mother Russia! Onward to the evil EUSSR and the poisoned dwarf, Hairstylist In Chief, Uschi von der Lyin' of the Epstein Pedovore Regime and her idiot minions of Urupp.
Russia doesnβt need to wait for Ukraine to attack Belarus.
All they have to say is Ukraine threatened Belarus so it was a preemptive attack to protect Belarus.
Thatβs it.
They don't even need to say that. This attempt at following Emily Post's rules of etiquette in a war is ludicrous. If they'd ever go ahead and win they could say whatever they want; no one's going to care anyway.
Well yes and no.
Yes of course what matters is winning.
No having cover - even if exaggerated or not water tight - is better for posterity and public opinion.
They have to say something. This is good enough.
The "public" are cowardly, gullible dipshits, and their "opinions" will always amount to whatever is the least likely to get them made fun of on the internet. They can and should be ignored.
"Posterity" is a concern only in a future that never arrives.
Public opinion always eventually goes with winning. In this particular case I think Russia would make a much more powerful statement by taking the initiative, FOR ONCE, and taking responsibility for attacking rather than hiding behind some lame excuse. That might have some impact on the fading interest of any Russian friends or allies that still care.
This.
Compare how Russia was seen circa July 2nd 2022 and how it is viewed by the world now.
Yes, the world would think much more highly of Russia if they started a nuclear war that killed everyone....
Indeed they would -- strength and resolve are the only things that are respected in this world.
Because the only two choices are "nuclear war" and "being victimized".
public opinion ???when you have to contend with western primates , they have always hated Russians and will always hate them because of the miniscule brains and propaganda. Vlad Brovkin says it :there is the appeaser Putin and the War Hawks. Putin sees the populations of the east Ukraine as Russians , meaning he is treading lighly compared to the Hawks. And just bombing cant win wars shitrael and usa have finally figured this out with their puny primate brains.
Western primates like winners. Russia is not a winner.
I think the whole reason Russia has had to walk on eggshells is so the rest of the "occupied west" doesn't collectively declare war on them for "taking it too far"
Nonsense. The West will make war on them if they are weak and makes war on them now because they act weak.
The West doesn't need a reason. Just a victim.
It's strange how many of the people who say Iran would be safe if only they had a nuclear weapon also say that Russia can't defend itself because it will be attacked with nuclear weapons if it does.
So the only idea in your brain is that big bad alpha countries don't get pushed around, and weak little pansy countries do? What a revolutionary idea! Primitive thinking straight out of a biker bar.
You probably don't even know what I meant when I said "occupied west". Current global geopolitics plays quite a large role in a given country's war strategy! If the "people" who control most of the western countries are all hell bent on your destruction, you may have to tread a bit more lightly and strategically than two countries at war with no other possible external influence.
The "people" who started and controlled the USSR, did so because they hate Russia, Russian people, and Russian culture, for merely existing, and have hated them for merely existing for centuries. Russia was a completely self sufficient, prosperous Christian society, which is an incredibly offensive thing to be allowed to exist, if you're the "people" who started and controlled the USSR.
Those "people" weren't able to take over and control the financial system in Czarist Russia, because the Czar has ultimate control over the nation's financial policies. Even MORE offensive.
Now those "people" don't control Russia anymore (because the USSR is gone, Christian Russia is back, and only 5-10% of the people in Russia identify as what we would call "leftists") but they DO control a whole bunch of nuclear armed western countries and still hate Russia and Russians for existing, and want any reason to weaken them and wipe them off the map. That hatred is half the reason NATO / the EU exist (who both love Israel so much), and the entire reason the 2014 Ukraine coup happened at all.
This is why Russia has had to tread strategically in this war. Not blow up bridges until Ukraine does so first. Not attack civilian targets like Ukraine (and Israel) love to do. Not blow up every gas station until Ukraine attacks Russian infrastructure first, etc. Global geopolitics, especially in this situation, are not so simple as biker bar logic.
Public opinion in the West about Russia is regardless of any reason or morale.
Humans want to be seen on the winning side. That is why they instinctively gravitate towards and identify with bullies and aggressors.
How many excuses does Russia need to take this war seriously, as it should have from the very beginning?
Ovi coming back. ;) Ukrainian's record is cooked.
Hockey is a young man's game. Since Washington won't make the playoffs again for being too slow, all the team has to cheer about is Ovi's presence, like a dinosaur fossil in a museum. Impressive but extinct. If you want a good Russian player, pick the young super talented Demidov from Montreal, a team loading up with Russian players. Ovi is past, like the 8-track cassette player, once great, now obsolete. Come on, Aly, you need to pick a winner to be a winner. π
Muh, muh
>Hockey is a young man's game
Historically it has been the major sport with the most players over 40 playing a meaningful role.
Hahaha, GM.
I never expected you to discuss hockey.
Over 40's are pilons. lol
At 70 something I was an βorange coneββ¦but still beats pickleball.
Still, top players tend to retire around 40, and some stick around to 45.
In soccer/football or basketball you subtract five years from those numbers.
Demidov is really good.
Especially considering this was his rookie year. Montreal just signed him on a long-term contract.
The Oven Chicken has nothing on Jaromir Jagr!
Played Czech pro until 54.
Haha, just to get them teenage girls.
Domestic politics dictate foreign policy.
It always comes down to that.
Oswald Spengler argued convincingly that the exact opposite is true: behind the scenes, foreign policy ALWAYS takes precedence over domestic policy in every "liberal Western" country. I believe that is true.
No, the prime directive is to crush the working class and keep the existing oligarchy on top.
Aggressive foreing policy is a derivative of that
SMO doesn't exist to entertain you
You mean the half-assed planned world war 1 positional attritional SMO?
Belarus itself is cucking hard.
Today there was another attack on a Belarusian bus in Bryansk, but this time even more blatant -- they hit it right at the border crossing from Gomel.
The reaction from the Belarusian side? Well, there are the exact words:
>Belarus has labeled the attack on a passenger bus on the Minsk-Anapa route a terrorist act. According to former Belarusian presidential candidate and retired colonel Sergei Gaidukevich, the attack by Ukrainian militants on the Russian-Belarusian border was a planned attempt to intimidate civilians.
>"Considering that nothing is working on the front, the focus is on terrorism and extremism. Therefore, these are not military objectives, but terrorist ones. There are two reasons for this. The first is to demonstrate military capabilities to the West so they can continue to receive money, and the second is to try to destabilize the situation," the parliamentarian stated.
>Gaidukevich emphasized that Russia and Belarus will act strictly within the legal framework: criminal cases are already being opened, investigations are underway, and all those involved in attacks on civilians will be punished .
So it's once again a "terrorist act". Meaning it is not an act of war. Because if you say it is an act of war, then you have to fight a war. But if it's "terrorism", then you can say you will strictly observe the legal framework and wash your hands of the matter. Which, of course, will not deter anyone. Putin once upon a time used to say that "Russia does not negotiate with terrorists" and "We will hunt them and kill them wherever they are, even on the toilet". Times have apparently changed...
Holmes, Russia can neither defend Moscow, nor convince anyone that an attack will carry serious consequences.
So Byelorus has no choice but to cower.
Holmes, hahaha.
It's been a while since I heard that word.
Lukashenko on weekend went to Valday and to Beijing for direct help from both those states. I bet he also called later Pyongyang to assure their April done agreements are strong.
Belarus, Russia and China don't want Ukrainian war to widen. They need it under control. Any chaotic and not well prepared movements are dangerous, can cause too much NATO pressure. That's why Lukashenko apologised to Zelenky several weeks ago and possibly also changed positions of Russian drone transponders a week ago.
Ideally for Russia are peace talks conducted in Minsk, and not Ankara, Geneva or Abu Dhabi.
No. There will be no peace talks.
Only victory.
I don't know what exactly would be, just if there are peace talks better do them in Minsk. So Lukashenko has to play cool.
Even full capitulation signed in Kiev should be with some legal all-country Ukrainian entity, preferably civilian one, like the parliament Verhovna Rada, and not just defending garrison.
So those nationalists in Galicia won't have authority to prolong war.
If you take everything Simpli has been writing latelyβwhich is just delusional ramblingβas the truth, you might as well believe a stranger claiming heβs sleeping with your partner, even if your partner is a man.
π
Goink!
Hahaha, EH.
That's hilarious.
NATO will not stop this proxy war until it believes Putin will hit European targets which will only be the case when Russia actually does hit European prime targets like London-Berlin.
Take down the MI6 bully and the flock will follow.
This seems clear.
The UK SSBNs were apparently all in port once again recently. Might even still be.
Golden opportunity presenting itself to take care of that particular tumor on the face of the planet. But Putin will never touch the dear partners, and that island is the dearest of them all, with all the precious real estate the Russian oligarchs have there.
The UK has been calculating from the beginning and all this time that the Russian oligarchy will not destroy its own mansions, mistresses, children and money, which are all in the UK.
And it has been one of the most successful bets in history so far...
Especially since all of Britain's nuclear attack subs are currently in repair, a " Pearl Harbor" like strike would be tempting, but also a big gamble regarding possible US escalation.
It does seem like a pretty big gamble. Do you think the US would ever attack Russia with nukes without simultaneously attacking China, though? I can't see the US opting for mutually assured destruction that leaves its main adversary unharmed. Different if they think they could win, though maybe.
Fatmerica knows it would be a suicidal mistake to attack China.
But then again, they are run by Zio-Kikes.
In panic and hubris would the U$A ever retaliate.
We're not talking about a Pearl Harbor strike.
We're talking about disabling the second strike capability so that a total countervalue first strike is carried out, i.e. wipe the whole thing out to make an example of it for others.
The US will not retaliate over what no longer exists.
You're talking about taking England off the map?
Russia needs to deal with Ukraine before starting another conflict and ending up in a two-front war it doesn't have the stomach for. The SMO was poorly conceived; hence,, soon going into the 6-year war of a 2-week SMO. Oh, I know. Russia got fooled again. π
The West has even less stomach for war, which is why they're always on the prod for useful idiots to do the dying for them, and surprisingly there isn't a shortage of morons willing to play that role.
The morons are being lined up as we speak. There are going to be so many unemployed people in Europe that they can just make conscription a prerequisite to collecting unemployment insurance or welfare with extra pay. Sure glad I'm not a young unemployed European these days. π Being young would be fine, though excluding the unemployed European part. haha
Hell, just promise Asians, Africans, Latin Americans a european passport after a tour of duty.
They'll have no shortage of volunteers.
European strategy since 1917 has been to get Americans to do their fighting for them.
Russia is already IN a two-front war if you count the US and Europe as some other front. It's just that Russia isn't fighting back on one of those fronts and, naturally, is losing because of it.
I understand what you're saying, Elena. But, my point is if Russia starts lobbing bombs in Western Europe, it would activate NATO, under Article 5, to a much greater level of conflict before Russia even has a chance to neutralize Ukraine, so NATO can't link up with it. When two forces attack, it's better to destroy one side first, making it easier to take out the second. As it stands, Russia is having a hell of a time dealing with Ukraine, along with some help. It didn't have to be this way, but I'll leave it at that.
There is no automatic activation of NATO. Article 5 gives them the option of taking action.
Thanks for the reminder.
You are correct.
"my point is if Russia starts lobbing bombs in Western Europe, it would activate NATO, under Article 5, to a much greater level of conflict before Russia..."
Just to be clear, NATO is currently activated, and attacking Russia, to the extent it deems comfortable and seems prepared and willing to do that for the foreseeable future, meaning until it is ready to proceed to do MORE harm to Russia. Can we agree on that?
If we do agree on that, then Russia has a simple (not to say easy) choice: let the west escalate when it's ready to do so, or take action now while the west is NOT ready to do so. Since I think Russia is in a greater state of preparation than the west is, I think it should strike now. Time is not on Russia's side, a fact known to everybody in the world except the commenters on this blog.
Once again the brilliant logic at play -- Russia should not bomb NATO when NATO bombs Russia because then NATO would start bombing Russia.
Can't make this up...
Good points, Elena. I like the idea of Russia taking a pre-emptive stance, but they failed miserably at initiating friction with their half-assed SMO. Your idea is good, but Russia won't do it. They are more reactive than proactive.
Exactly, except that striking a European country would still be retaliation rather than preemptive, as Putin himself has said. But your point is valid.
Article 5 does not matter.
Stating that it does is for the lesser informed reading MSM.
Article 5 applies, if, when and to the extent that the Americans say it does.
Ukraine cannot be dealt with without dealing with Europe. And dealing with Europe means a strategic nuclear attack. Not a tactical one, certainly not a symbolic conventional strike. The first attack has to go for the total kill.
Thank Putin for letting things get to that point and don't blame the messenger.
GM, I like most of your information, but maybe the nuclear option is too soon. The threat to Russia isn't big enough yet. However, I understand what you're getting at. The Kremlin oligarchs are too Western-friendly, more focused on money than on patriotism. That makes it impossible for Russia to apply the necessary deterrence to ensure its security, which amplifies the problem over time, as exemplified by the current failed SMO.
>The threat to Russia isn't big enough yet.
They are bombing the space communication centers. Took out one of them already, the other one has been attacked every other day for weeks now.
Run through the consequences of disabling Russian satellite communications -- if that is not a big enough threat, then what is?
>The Kremlin oligarchs are too Western-friendly, more focused on money than on patriotism.
Yes, I am well aware, that is the whole point.
Hmmm. You have a good point there. I didn't know about this.
Hmmm, by golly, you are right.
I must relax now, I feel a slight headache.
π
wow someone admitted error on here?
GM is not the only one sounding alarms.
Funny how AFU and EU can figure out to go after RF's satcoms...but RF does....NOTHING ABOUT ANY OF IT on the other side.
they get to use starlink to their hearts' content.
For GM, like most of the commentators here, the only two options are: nuclear strike" and "nothing".
They're actually saying the same thing, just taking different sides of a false dichotomy. Most commentators use this as an excuse for Russian dithering. GM is all for the nukes.
What's your take on this nuclear thing, Feral? Is Russia really facing an existential threat? GM makes a good case, but are there other, less intrusive things to do? I'm still thinking, trying to figure this out.
Well, they ought to try, rather than this "just the tip" bullshit.
Yes, Russia is facing an existential threat. No, Putin is not a western agent, just an old man who doesn't want to face reality.
I'd agree it was a false dichotomy except, perhaps, for attacks on the nuclear triad. If sufficiently vigorous reprisal had occurred after operation spiderweb I might still think so, but the response was... not sufficiently vigorous. That upped the ante on any further attacks on any part of the nuclear apparatus, and I'm inclined to agree with GM on that one. They simply must not be tolerated, and no price is too high to pay for that - it really is existential in an immediate way.
Stas said in a recent video that Russia doesnβt have any tactical tnukes, the smallest is larger than Hiroshima, in the megaton range.
The only thing that Stas is reliable on is reports from the frontlines.
Other than that if you actually know the subject matter you will catch him in absolute howlers every time he opens his mouth.
He certainly doesn't know anything about the Russian nuclear arsenal. Very few people do. But we do know that the USSR had small nukes and we also know that a few were used in Ukraine covertly (well, a mushroom cloud over ten kilometers high is not really a covert use of a nuke, but the point is that nobody ever acknowledged it on either side). It's extremely unlikely the small nukes were completely retired and everything that remained was 75 kt and above.
But that was not the point I was making -- the point was that if you are going to hit Europe, you will not be doing counterforce targeting only, because then what you will get is yet another platform for retaliatory strikes on yourself. You have to wipe it all fully and then take over the territory so that it cannot be used as a platform for strikes on you, i.e. not making the same mistake that was made with Ukraine.
Right, so your genius 'solution' is to do massive strategic nuclear strikes on Europe and then send Russian troops in to hold the nuclear wasteland.
Put the Crack pipe down pal, and stop acting like you know it all.
I am not the one who allowed things to get so out of control.
If I was in the Kremlin, Ukraine would have been reincorporated into the Russian Federation back in 2014, earlier even, in 2005, the Belovezh Accords would have been renounced, Belarus would have rejoined the new USSR too, all the oligarchs would have been lined up and shot, as well as all Banderites, and we would be in a very different world in which Russia doesn't have to nuke anyone.
But I wasn't in the Kremlin, Putin was, so here we are in the situation in which nothing but strategic nuclear strikes will save Russia.
no. Russia never used nuclear weapons in Ukranus
period.
Had they, this shit they're in would not be happening now
See dude, this is the problem with you- you say use nukes but then claim that they DID use nukes but just nobody acknowledged they did...but that the US knows and EU knows and everyone knows. And yet STILL the EU proceeds so wtf good would it do to use them again?
FFS man nobody has used any nukes in this war. Radiation monitors ALL OVER EUROPE would have alarmed and it IS NOT POSSIBLE to have squelched this
Give Wiesbaden an Oresnik kiss. That's where the planning occurs... Chip
Well, both Russia and Ukraine have been hitting each other's gas stations, trucks, and oil infrastructure. Russia is also experiencing oil shortages in parts of the country as Ukraine continues to target production facilities with as much success as Russia. Russian gasoline crunch worsening: two-thirds of regions under fuel rationing or supply disruption after Ukrainian refinery strikes (BurggrabenH); Putin conceded "problematic but not critical" shortages and floated a diesel-export ban
So the war of attrition continues with both sides taking losses. And Ukraine still has the resources to hold for the foreseeable future. So in another 6 months, you can count on the 2-week SMO entering its sixth year in six months, which no one ever expected. But, yeah, trust the plan. Too bad it keeps changing as this war carries on. π It didn't have to be this way. I'll just leave it at that. (when winning is one hell of a costly and painful experience) Luckily, we're not the ones in the trenches for years at a time waiting to get killed. This kind of war becomes a desensitizing game as the over 1 million casualties keep mounting. But who cares? Russia is winning. Just a few more years.
Wars are won quickly but SMOs take time.
(Iβm being sarcastic)
Chinese about the Iran war :
βThe Illusion of victoryβ meaning there is no victor.
USA and israel burned through their stockpiles with nothing gained.
Russia gained half of UK in area 120,000sq km and millions of Former Ukrainians have Russian passports and have a look at the rebuild of Mariuopal . Lets see the usa or nato start a war and conquer 120,000 sq kms .All the naysayers about the smo have no idea about war not an ounce, the attrition has been super succesful, you cant win wars or change Russia with drones. Next to the bathouses(Englands epsteins) in London sit MI5 and MI6 where the primates make their devious plans against Russia and their own uk population.In Germay its wiesbaden where murder inc. has its home.
>Russia gained half of UK in area 120,000sq km and millions of Former Ukrainians have Russian passports
Russia didn't gain 120,000 km^2 and 6-7 million former Ukrainians.
It lost 400,000 km^2 and 20 million ethnic Russians and was reduced to the same status as Syria, Libya, Yugoslavia and all the other countries the US and the West have bombed at will.
π
Russia occupies about 117,000 square kms of Ukraine, albeit including Crimea.
The United Kingdom has a total area of approximately 243,610 square kilometers.
So one can indeed say Russia has gained half of UK's area.
You can't really be comparing Russia to Syria/Libya - are you?
Where did Russia lose this 400,000 sq kms? And 20 million ethnic Russians?
Most of Ukraine is core historic Russian territory, inhabited by ethnic Russians. Only the far western part isn't.
Kiev and Odessa are the third and fourth historically most important Russian cities.
But that territory is now occupied by the Western Nazis and their local henchmen and turned into an anti-Russia.
Thus Russia's loss.
false. DPR/LPR controlled most of those areas prior to the war
RF has gained VERY VERY VERY little in fact. At a cost maybe of 1M casualties now. Insane.
What do you people call letting the type of THOUSANDS OF UNITS of armor come over the border from a neighboring state unimpeded? DF was the POINT of this?
"At a cost maybe of 1M casualties now"
Why not 10M? Don't be shy, keyboard will endure everything.
bc 10M isn't close to accurate?
Russia has probably suffered 1M casualties, give or take....what's your issue with this? 200k very like KIA out of that pile
wow - amazingly detailed - thanks for that
I wish there was any data at all on the hit rate of Russia's new fully autonomous drones, as I'd like to know if the technology is finally getting to the point where it's actually effective against ground targets. I'd also like to know if these drones can guide themselves in pursuit of mobile targets like personnel or vehicles or if thy can only hit targets at pre-programmed coordinates.
Fully autonomous weapons have a bad to terrible track record against ground targets as was seen at the start of the war with the failure of the Javelin ATGM and again in 2023 when the short-lived success of optical AI-based targeting in FPV drones and loitering munitions was foiled by drones cages becoming more common and confusing the AI with their non-standard and unpredictable design features, so it would be quite the significant development for these systems to suddenly have a turn around from the technology maturing.
It doesn't really matter at this point, the West has mobilized enough industrial resources to crush Russia with drones, which absolutely refuses to mobilize for war because that would destroy the Russian oligarchy, but even if it mobilized fully, would still be crushed conventionally, because the mismatch in industrial potential is so vast.
The only thing that will save Russia at this point is strategic (not tactical) nuclear strikes on Europe and praying the US (and France) sit it out if they are left unharmed.
They still might not need nuclear weapons if Putin would ever treat this as a war and not a walk in the park. Imagine them cutting off oil to any country supplying weapons to Ukraine, including China and India if they are, and definitely Europe and Turkey. That would go far towards leveling the industrial potential. And Russia is closer to having the military might in the needed places. I'd like those chances better than a prayer that the US and France would stay out (nor do I think they should be unharmed).
And how many times have we heard that China would never ever let Russia lose this war? You don't seem very confident in that guarantee...
Cutting off oil should be done, but it won't make any difference.
The flow of weapons into Ukraine must be stopped, and there is no other way to do that but to use nukes.
>And how many times have we heard that China would never ever let Russia lose this war? You don't seem very confident in that guarantee...
The Chinese don't seem to understand that they are the end game and the final meal for the crocodile. Or they think that the crocodile eating them last is some kind of a win. In any case, if they seriously understood the gravity of their own situation, they would not have allowed Venezuela to fall, they would have flooded Iran with hardware, they would be pumping Cuba with fuel, drones and missiles, and they would absolutely not be selling any drones and components to Ukraine and the West, with everything going to Russia instead.
But we have seen none of that.
It's some mix of the Chinese being overconfident in their ability to defeat the West even when completely surrounded, which is pure idiocy, and having some plans to make a deal with the US while grabbing Siberia (to which purpose Russian being severely weakened is a prerequisite), which is also delusional -- there will be no deal with the US.
I was being sarcastic about China, unfortunately. I think they think they can make a deal, and I'm sure they will. It will last until the US thinks it isn't helping them destroy China.
China has already said before this war all the usa bases japan , korea , phillipines, will be knocked out a-la Iran if us starts anything and they know there are no second chances so its first to the mass weapons button
Sadly, you are dead right. We are going into that direction. As of not being in control of events.
taking out gas storage dosent win wars or change the outcome , they already repair them quicker than you think depending on damage
I live in Europe. Where has Europe moiblized industrial resources to crush Russia with drones. I am talking about production not future commitments.
Where do you think the drones that are crushing Russian logistics, refineries and factories come from?
When and where have Russian logistics, refineries and factories been *crushed?* Russia's military and industry run on diesel. They have never produced proportionately much gasoline domestically and import gas from Asia every summer. Knocking out a refinery's storage tanks disrupting the planned delivery of a previous production run causes a two or three day delay in restoring distribution. It does *not* crush the system.
Refineries are huge with multiple production trains. Fires in one or another train are common place. The system is built to handle it without being devastated. Basically if you see a lot of fire and smoke, you didn't see anything essential to the operation being destroyed.
Keep in mind that the Ukrainian drones have to go incredible distances weaving through Russian air defenses under the guidance of American space based surveillance of Russian air defenses. That means the drones sacrifice warhead for distance. Thus they arrive at their destination in deep Russia with tiny warheads.
Anyway your claim was that Ukraine has a numerical drone advantage of three to one and that gap is increasing. I ask you where could they be coming from? The money to build such numbers of drones has been eagerly given to the Ukrainian oligarchs by Europe. But where are the results?
>When and where have Russian logistics, refineries and factories been *crushed?*
Have you been living under a rock for the last month and a half?
What is happening in Crimea and the L/DNR in your opinion?
Here is what is happenning, but you wouldn't see it reported in the alt-media because it doesn't fit the narrative:
https://t.me/martynovadn/6486
===============
When you spend several nights in Donetsk surrounded by a swarm of enemy drones until dawn, on the third day a slight numbness sets in from lack of sleep and other distractions.
This state forces you to focus on the main tasks and not interfere with anything else, not wasting a shred of energy even on unnecessary conversations.
You don't watch the news either, because you live among them.
And what is there to watch?
You open it.
Trucks are burning on the Starobeshevska Highway. An EMERCOM vehicle was attacked near Novyi Svet. Drones are burning trucks on the Mariupol highway. Everything is ablaze in broad daylight. And last night, a drone already tried to attack a car in the center of Donetsk.
And about what we heard all night.
In the Leninsky district today, they burned a parking lot of trucks β 22 vehicles! 22! These were peaceful trucks, as people write, belonging to a candy factory.
It turns out the Ukrainian is in the clear.
In principle, the same is true for us. If you watch what's happening on TV or just don't pay attention.
Less than a month has passed, and the media has quickly routinized the nightmare, where casualties and damages are simply counted in the spirit of Minsk-2, and against all this, there are some cheerful plans and mundane news.
More and more people are thinking about leaving, because no one has an answer yet, not even in theory, on how to stop the terror.
Let's assume I'm a pessimist, because I simply didn't get enough sleep.
Donetsk, can you share some good news? What has changed for the better now? Optimists, convinced patriots, activists, and sowers, it's your turn.πͺ
More:
==================
https://t.me/martynovadn/6479
Donetsk. Are you preparing for the blockade?
- I went to the hypermarket this morning. Do you remember what it was like when the owners changed? When the shelves were empty? Well, that's how it is now! There's almost nothing. The employee said it's because the cars can't get in. The dairy store is empty. I saw five cheese curds and scooped them all up. I ended up making ten thousand rubles out of what was there in an hour.
- Oh, don't tell me you bought pasta and cereal, you're just feeding the bugs! - Yeah,
I would have bought some, but they're all gone! The cashier said everyone's like that, stealing everything from the shelves!
I listened with some surprise. Honestly, I'm not much of a grocery shopper β I hate it with all my heart. I didn't notice any changes in the surrounding stores in the village β they looked just like they were before the drone incident.
Around lunchtime, another message arrives, this time from the city center:
"The store shelves are half empty. Chocolate bars have completely disappeared, only the expensive ones remain, and not everywhere. The selection of canned fish has halved."
I wonder, friends, what's going on in our grocery stores?
I recalled the summer of 2014, when Donetsk, exhausted by shelling, was constantly reeling to the point of panic. One day, people rushed to buy grains and canned goods. I wasn't part of this movement, but I stopped at a chain supermarket in a quiet outskirts.
It was an epic sight. Sweaty, nervous women were loading flour, sugar, salt, and cookies into carts. Everything was scattered across the floor. The shelves were gnawed clean. There was a crush, some were snatched from under their noses, others were crushed. A line.
As I waded through this garmider, I grabbed a pack of crab sticks from the fridge and a bottle of champagne from the shelf. I thought I'd eat the sticks now and drink the champagne when this was all over. I joined the nervous, huffing line.
I'll never forget that moment: amidst piles of food as tall as me, I contentedly placed the crab sticks and champagne near the checkout. I've probably never seen anyone look at me with such intense hatred. In the minds of these nervous women, I've probably already died of hunger three times over.
So, it's hard to suspect me of panicking.
About three weeks ago, my friend, who takes care of my foster dog, Zhulka, sent over another "tranche" of boxes of canned goods.
When I put some of it in a bag and brought it to Zhulka's deployment location, every male employee I met thoughtfully said, "And we need to get ready." They nodded at the bag. At first, I didn't understand it at all, but then I sort of understood. Although, of course, the situation was easier back then.π
π
π
Useless jibberjabber reply to a technical question.
We will hear about the hit rate after the war. Even for the hand steered drones, where we see all this nice videos, they are hard to rate. I can remember all too well the Yugoslav war, where the NATO forces showed all these videos of hitting tanks, AA, radars or guns. After the war we found out, that the Yugoslav (now Serbian) Army losses was not substantial. The sophisticated NATO forces hit fake targets, while the real stuff was hidden from the most adavanced scanners.
Lancet has been autonomous from inception and it's was nothing but smashing success. Failure of US MIC weapons on battlefield is tradition, but they do not make weapons to work, they make weapons for $. It's different category and must be judged separately.
True, but the fully-automated part of the Lancet has always been a backup system for in case connection to the operator is lost either due to jamming or terrain interference. The Lancet has never been quite the fully automated "launch and forget" type drone its supposed to one day become.
No no, fully AI mode was design feature right from the start. And Lancet (under different name) was tested all the way back in Syria, just like many other systems (neural networks for machine vision were way before LLM craze)
Operator there is not as main option, he is there to not waste system on dud positive match and he is merely there to "okay" the target.
Most comments here are stupid.
Thanks for demonstrating the truth of that statement.
He's right though. It's mostly now just three trolls working each other and themselves up into a lather.
"Three trolls" - is that like the three monkeys, see no sense, hear no sense, speak no sense?
Once you block them it gets much better.
@William Young
90% of everything is shit, most definitely including your comment.
"A drone attacked a bus in the Bryansk region carrying 19 passengers on the Minsk-Gomel-Anapa route, Belarusian TV reports.
Two residents of the Gomel region were injured and received medical treatment.
A special task force has already been dispatched from Gomel to evacuate passengers and drivers.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces drone strike on the Minsk-Anapa bus was a deliberate strategy by Kiev, which was not carried out without the approval of Western sponsors, Miroshnik stated.
According to him, Ukraine is tracking Belarusian transport and launching strikes to provoke and unsettle the republic's leadership."
https://t.me/vicktop55/45075
Trying to trigger Belarus.
Yes, and what was the Belarusian reaction?
Adopting the same Russian rhetoric of "this is a terrorist act" without identifying the terrorists by name, let alone punishing them.
Not getting triggered?
lol is that what you call fighting back?
Not everybody is low IQ, emotionally incontinent American that "has to react" to every petty crap.
having your citizens murdered by a psycho foreign regime isn't petty crap...
I do not know how many troops Belarus has, but I have seen talks about as low as 12k combat troops.
Are they supposed to charge on Kiev with them for a drone attack that did not even kill anybody?
it is obviously what is the plot here - Ze's desperation. Being cooked like a frog.
Of course they do. And it will continue nd getting worse.
If Ukraine wants to fight Byelorus, they'll do so. They don't need to "trigger" anything.
What they are doing is demonstrating Byelrussian impotence and forcing them to make a deal.
I suspect the Russians have been building up for something big . They knew that the logistics would get tight for Ukraine and its happening . The west can only supply drones in some quantity and air defence is getting severely depleted . Add to this their shortage of boots on the ground and you have a situation that will favour the Russian military in their offensive . Someone in the Russian intel world will be keeping an eye on critical logistics and will probably have a "trigger" level which will cause larger actions to commence . IMO the Russians will want to take Odessa and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea .
>The west can only supply drones in some quantity
The number of fixed-wing drones launched equalized in February and is now 3:1 in favor of Ukraine, and the ratio keeps growing in the wrong direction, with production in Europe and the US only now ramping up.
Those are the empirical very ugly for Russia facts.
This was ALWAYS going to happen, and you don't seem to understand that. There is no 'geographical limit' to this war, there is not and never has been a chance of 'defeating Ukraine' once BloJo flew in to nix the signed agreement.
From there on, this is a general war. And one where the West not only is willing to sacrifice its own citizens, but actively wants an excuse to do so. Including in nuclear hellfire.
What Russia is doing now is shaping that future battlefield, without giving the West an excuse to cite A5 and begin the general war. JUST as Belorus is also avoiding breaking the status quo, so too the West is hoping for an legalist excuse, which Russia is not giving them.
If Russia can first absorb the damage, and end at the Dnieper and Odessa BEFORE general hostilities start, she will be in a considerably better place strategically - a few lost gas storage sites does not compare even remotely to that prize of strategic defence before WW3 breaks out openly.
"The first step in avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence" - generals know how to win a war. What they are lousy at is the strategic patience to win during 'peace'.
Right now Russia is winning during the pre-war 'false-peace' - it is costing them a LOT, but they ARE winning.
Once the general war starts, Russia is in a bind: to win THAT war, they have to take Europe. But that is absolutely the last thing they want to, unlike the West they have no genocidal impulse towards the people of the West, whereas the West is lead by people who will happily, indeed WANT to genocide BOTH populations, Russia's and their own!
Putin's aim is to have such a strong frontline that even if Germany 'remilitarises', even if the EU 'remilitarises', then their poorly trained conscript 'meat waves' die fruitlessly on pointless attacks, the Surivikin Line on steroids all down the Dnieper, with air superiority protecting the homeland.
Russia also knows, probably better than 90% of Western publics, that there's no way for Western populations to 'vote' their way out of the planned war anymore, Corbyn and the Romanian dude made that plain as day.
The land to the west of Russia's borders in now universally hostile, albeit with some small pockets of hope - and only hope - in the eastwards parts.
So the only thing they can do is shape that future conflict before it starts, and that is precisely what they are doing.
Your wet dream fantasies that "nukes" will teach the West humility is completely incorrect, first use will simply allow the offshored psychos an excuse to retaliate in kind, and it will cost them nothing more than when they attack mother russia with terrorism, and in response Russia blows up more of Ukraine.
This is literally a win-win for the Slav-hating racists pulling the strings.
And so would moving this war to a nuclear footing be.
They WANT WANT WANT Russia to do this.
What the Kremlin is waiting for is the inevitable economic collapse from energy shortages in the West (US fracking is a very short term prospect, each well lasts 10 years at most), and the financial collapse that will destabilise the West more than nuking every capital.
It's taking longer than expected, because financial wizardry and QE behind the scenes, but sooner rather than later the final grains of sand run through the egg-timer, and the ponzi schemes collapse.
Good write, most of it, and very plausible reasoning.
"The first step in avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence" - generals know how to win a war. What they are lousy at is the strategic patience to win during 'peace'. Dead right.
And Russia missed that they were dragged into a trap long before 2014, when it finally sprung. They then missed or ignored every step the West took to build an even bigger trap, the NATO-Ukraine.
The feb 2022 was a trap and Russia stepped into it, to the delight of Deep State US&UK. The sanctions and freezing of assets came very swiftly as of pre-planned. Europe&NATO was taken by surprise, although I think Stoltenberg&Co, was involved in the planning.
So Russia has stucked the foot into the Bear-trap and all βWestβ has to do is to wait for the bleeding to death. The Bear cant reach West (unless releasing nukes). End of story.
You are missing the POINT of starting the SMO. Yes, it was to protect the peoples of Donbass, but more urgently strategically, it was to prevent nuclear-capable short range missiles stationed there, with hypersonics (And the West will get there EVENTUALLY) a 2min flight time to Moscow.
When one plays chess, the aim is to create lose-lose for your opponents.
This was the plan.
Either Russia accepts the strategic defeat of nukes placed right next door to the capital, relying on the 'decent morality' of the West, or else takes the risk of invading Ukr, and triggering the circumstances we see today.
It was a lose-lose, and the Kremlin was 100% aware of that.
They went with the lesser but more bloodletting risk, and prayed the sudden incursion brought the Ukrainian regime back to sanity. And it worked - until it didn't because of a large bag of pharma coke brought by a fat bag of shit.
Blaming Russia is like blaming the dude minding his own business until some violent fuckwit strolls over and smacks them behind the head. For a pacifist, whatever happens after that is already a loss.
The Bear CAN reach the west, it has missiles capable of doing so, that are unstoppable. The damage that can actually do is limited, beyond some surgical strikes to assassinate key decision centres. As Iran has showed, the usefulness of that can be limited - especially if total war is planned.
I am not missing anything, Gnueo.
The trap was so good that Russia had to move (lose-lose). The βprotectionβ of the Donbass people is merely an excuse. The real reason was of course NATO entering Ukraine.
And I dont blame Russia.
The Bear has his foot stuck in the Ukraine trap and as you write do limited damage to the West (unless using nukes).
End of story.
π
that's not a rap then...it was an act of war
Pin this on the notice board!
I know that nukes will go of before any primate from the western sets foot on Russian soil and raises a gun at Russian soil . Who are we kidding Russia will destroy the west if it starts anything beginning with holland all those dykes will be useless. Russians care about their kin in Ukraine but dont give a shit about hairless western primates.
Kon,
Already has - Kursk is Russia . There were plenty of western "mercenaries" involved .
Guneo,
Agreed . The fact that the west is now committing piracy shows desperation . Maritime transport is the key to the elites/globalists power and that's been restricted , and when war is "declared" shipping will be targeted . Ships can carry large amounts of cargo, but its all gone when they sink. Europe receives a lot of its resources via shipping and its supply chains will be in jeopardy . It will require only a few nukes to send everyone back to the middle ages if they use EMP weapons . Our reliance on the internet and stable power networks will be gone and chaos will rule and the law of the jungle will prevail . The massive debt that exists in the west will eventually destroy the currency/financial systems as trust evaporates and barter will become prevalent . As you stated money and cryptocurrency are becoming ponzi schemes now. Food and fuel will become the new currency.
It doesn't show desperation, it shows impunity.
If they are pirates now, why is nobody hunting those pirates?
GM ,
Because like all pirates they hit and run . If they become to big an issue all vessels will have to be escorted or garrisoned . The convoy system could also return . In WW2 the Germans had an overwhelming advantage initially but lost it when measures were taken to counter it.
They aren't pirates, though, they are privateers. We're talking about state sponsored piracy, and unlike pirates, states can't hit and run. Every time the UK or France or US stops a ship, Russia knows exactly where to retaliate. But it doesn't.
So what? The piracy works.
Even if vessels now had to be escorted or garrisoned or organized into convoys, shipping costs just went up, making Russian products uncompetitive.
"This was ALWAYS going to happen, and you don't seem to understand that. There is no 'geographical limit' to this war, there is not and never has been a chance of 'defeating Ukraine' once BloJo flew in to nix the signed agreement."
So why has Russia been pussyfooting around for four years, then?
If the West wants a war with Russia, it will start one. No legalist excuse necessary.
As a guess, likely for the same reason a single hyena in a skanky pack won't go directly toe to toe with a lion. They will get fucked up. They work as a pack, running in from many directions, taking a nip before whimpering back, hoping to be out of reach.
It's the same technique used on bears by hunters, anyone walking up and belting it on the nose is not walking away, if lucky they will crawl and hope a medicine healer is nearby to stitch the inevitable deep wounds.
No European population wants to be that bleeding out idjit, which is why the poor Ukrainians were couped, and then used as drone fodder by the installed Nazi dictatorship.
The costs of being first into the bear cave are tremendous, the benefits doubtful.
However, should the bear attack the village encampment first, or be seen to have, then the first in isn't an idjit, but a brave defender of the womenfolk and chillun.
Yes, human societies really haven't changed that much, just because we now have smartphones and fridge-freezers.
Ever seen dogs bait a bear?
No. But I imagine without humans in the mix, most dogs would be wise enough to leave bears well alone.
Except chihuahuas.
They'd definitely attack as soon as they saw one.
The war is already happening. But it is not like WWII, just as WWII was not like WW1. It's a hybrid of economic and kinetic warfare, together with proxy warfare similar to the Cold War and an extra-large helping of information warfare amplified by the ability of the state to filter out news it does not want people to see and push lots of propaganda that it does want people to see. And beyond that, to enable and encourage the media systems, mainstream, social, and otherwise, toward generating so much junk and misinformation that many people simply tune out.
I do expect the Ukraine war to escalate, simply because the US/NATO rulers are working so hard to make it happen. Not that they have any idea of what to do when that happens. They don't seem to have any ideas except to keep pulling the same levers of sanctions and weapons, over and over.
They remind me of kids playing with blasting caps.
They are keeping the war on a slow burn, as time is on their side.
Yes, I think that is what the Empire managers believe. The looming global economic chaos may surprise them. Such is the echo chamber they inhabit, they convince each other that, "We are so superior. We can't possibly lose."
This seems to be the biggest point of difference between a few of us here and the rest. I'm convinced it's the west that's playing the long game and Russia that isn't, and that time is on the west's side (and Russian defeat, at this point, is all but inevitable unless Putin has a big change of heart). Prevailing mythology these parts is exactly the opposite and that all Russia has to do is wait till the west implodes.
Congratulations on writing a cogent and convincing comment. "Financial wizardry" is practiced by very clever but sociopathic people who are sufficiently intelligent to know that the object of their trickery is to gain control of natural resources and productive tangibles, not the gewgaws the "unwashed" mistake for wealth. The USA and Europe wrote their own "Chronicle of a Death Foretold" when they deindustrialized and financialized their economies and it is highly likely that the Russians and the Chinese were well aware of that long ago, certainly by the mid-90s, when I became aware of it myself, thanks in large measure to a 1995 book written by Robert Prechter of "Elliott Wave" fame: "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave".
Mr. Prechter was a stock market technical analyst, a cycle theorist, and his timing was incorrect, but his fundamental thesis was not, at least not to me, a "nuts and bolts" guy whose only real interest in the financial markets was to accumulate enough capital to be able to purchase my freedom and be able to live a debt-free life on a productive (arable) piece of my own wholly-owned property with a deep well in a rural area, fund the education of my children and invest in productive tangibles owned by the family that would provide me with passive income and own my time. I have long been a Taoist whose "ambition" was to become a contemplative of sorts, given that metaphysically I'm a Zen Buddhist of the "Mind Only" school.
All that said (whew!), at very nearly 80 years of age, my microcosm--an autarchic one within my possibilities--seems to gybe with what you posit as the Russian and Chinese macrocosms, "nuts and bolts" societies as opposed to the "bells and whistles" values of the USA and Europe, neither of which has staying power as presently constituted. Thanks again for your very perceptive comment!
Taoism - truly the wisest of all theologies! And if you have followed it for the past 80 years, you were nearly co-existent with Bohr - any inspiration from there?
I have nothing but admiration for the Eastern philosophies, certainly compared to the mumbo-jumbo brain-stupefying idiocy that passes for religion in the West, I imagine you know exactly what I'm talking about.
Though personally I prefer to mix Taoism with esoteric Paganism, to give that grounded 'realism' in Nature's patterns, which I'm sure one day, one day, I'll give that constant year-long attention it richly deserves and rewards. Aspirations are beneficial. ;)
"Bells and Whistles" sounds so much nicer than the "Bread and Lethal Circuses" of Rome, the first psychopathic nation to unite Interest Bearing currencies, Fractional Reserve Banking, Standing Armies, Empire, Vast Wealth Gaps, Ultra-Corrupt "elites", and Genocide.
And humanity has rarely looked back since.
Sounds like you got out of your Skinnerian Wheel, aka 'the rat race', through intelligence and careful planning. Congrats to you! I hope the next gens appreciate this too rare opportunity they have been given, and some decide to protect it too for more gens to come.
The kibbutzniks were undone by trusting in the Israeli gummint, and the banksters - if I don't repeat myself. Hope you write a manual explaining all the pitfalls, and WHY some things are important.
It might not be just your family who can benefit.
May GAIA'S Blessing be upon thee and thy kin. X
Thanks! I'm soon to be 80 years old (ojalΓ‘), but became interested in Taoism at age 15 (1961) after reading Jack Kerouac's "On the Road" and deciding to read another of his novels called "The Dharma Bums". "Dharma", I asked myself. "What's that?" That novel was dedicated to Han Shan. Who? So I beat feet to the NY Public Library and thus my odyssey began. One thing led to another and I decided to become an Asian Studies major at an Ivy League university with wonderful professors in the then-tiny major. Yes, I'm familiar with Bohr, but for me the theoretical physicist who made the greater impression was the late David Bohm, whose 1980 "Wholeness and the Implicate Order" meshed nicely with my metaphysical beliefs. Much of his work was closely involved with that of Bohr.
I have a peculiar personal history and if you wish, I'd be glad to relate it to you privately, but am not sure how to go about that; if you're curious, please let me know how to contact you.
My son, his wife and my four grandchildren live on the same property as I do in South America. He is a US educated engineer, tri-lingual, who owns and operates a water well drilling business along with designing solar systems and irrigation systems such as we have on our property, which will be inherited by his children and will remain in the family for as long as is possible in this uncertain world. Please let me know if you wish to learn more about what I have planned for my remaining years and for the future of my family. I'd be delighted to share that as well, but don't wish to take up space here. I'm very grateful to our host and the varied but terrific commenter crew he's assembled.
I've heard of Bohm.. I think I assumed that Bohr and Bohm were the same person without ever thinking about it. :)
Have you read Fritjof Capra's 'The Tao of Physics' as well? No-one to my knowledge has listed the Eastern philosophies so well as he did in that book, although by that time I was already comfortably settled in my Pagan-Taoist ways.
I was raised a catholic til 5, then a protestant, realised Christianity was a bad joke at 14, 6 months of Atheism until I worked out that was even WORSE and made no sense whatsoever, went through Crowley, Buddhism, picking bits up from here and there, and ended up by my early 20s where I am now. The years have accreted layers of extra knowledge and awareness, as years tend to do.
I don't know how private substack chat is? I have this fear that every chat is open for others to read, but that would be a strange design!
this is false.
all this bullshit about not giving the west an excuse is in fact giving them TIME to prepare for the coming larger war. I don't know why you people continue to act like letting an enemy who wants to kill you calmly load all his weapons instead of attacking him immediately when he is weak is a good idea!
If you are the weaker party you ATTACK AS HARD AS POSSIBLE as Iran did.
NO, the west does NOT want Russia to fight back and strike them- they LOVE the Russia that refuses to and they can cut to pieces
GM
<<<<<<is now 3:1 in favor of Ukraine, and the ratio keeps growing in the wrong direction, <<<<<<
You should tell that to the Ukrainian troops on the ground. They certainly don't agree with your parroting of Ukrainian press releases.
watch MSA- the fucking drone attacks NOT ON THE LOC BUT FOR THE REAR are documented by both sides in press releases
π
nah, that's impossible, europe is totally w/o industry/military and populated by trans fags, no?
:)))
jfc you mujiks understand hard and are quick to forget.
Odessa is impossible to take if not Russia secure Dniepropetrovsk and Cherson first.
Geography is Odessas best friend.
Mikey,
Scenario : Feint toward Kiev and all reserves sent up there , and then massive strike followed by ground forces in Odessa . Take out all transport links in initial strikes and then dig in . Costly , but strategically sound IMO.
The ground forces cant reach Odessa. Look close at a map - to many waterways makes land strikes impossible.
And Ukraine has sunk 2/3 of the landing ships Russia had in Black Sea.
Of course ground forces CAN reach Odessa. Rivers are fordable, and marines are trained specifically to do that, alongside combat engineers. Russia also has amphibious tanks.
But Moscow also has absolutely no intention of doing a 'Krynky', and will wait until they can secure what they can take.
It will be hard, and expensive in lives and materiel.
But it can be done, and will be done in all likelihood.
Landing crafts are for a seaborne invasion and the British-Ukrainians made sure to reduce that possibility. London would very much like to end with Odessa in their hands, instead.
And woe to local population if they manage that.
β secure Dniepropetrovsk and Cherson firstβ
Then we talk.
Mikey,
When you look at the Kursk incursion , its possible to set up a sizeable force without the opposition working out its purpose . The Ukrainian forces are being bled dry by the current situation and at some point this strategy will become viable . It cuts off re-supply from the sea and that can restrict logistics for Ukraine . This strategy also restricts strikes on Odessa which will help Russian logistics . If Europe decides to get directly involved then the Russians would have "casus belli" and could strike them directly. The caveat on all this is that I can only see what the media will allow and do not have all the information and its all speculation.
are you freaking drunk?
they can't advance ONE KILOMETER ANYWHERE without being swarmed by drones! What PLANET are you on talking about amphibious tanks?
Yes, that is the only way to thoroughly neutralize Ukraine. It will be a landlocked rump state with a Russia-compatible government and serve as a buffer between Russia and Western Europe. John Mearsheimer has made this point on many occasions.
"I suspect the Russians have been building up for something big . "
We've been hearing that one for four years now. It never happens.
Dude! Thoses doomers are flooding substack. If you guys would zoom out beyond the psyop PR campaigns, yiu would see that on the macro level time is ticking much faster for the West then for Russia/China/Iran/NK. A couple of successful regime changes or blown up gas tanks won't change that the fact the west is effictively broke, deindustrialised and has become so dumb that institutional failure is common place. Just chill and watch the empire decline.
On the macro level the West removed Venezuela and Syria from the chessboard (Syria alone is a catastrophic defeat for Russia/Iran/China), is about to do it to Cuba too, Iran is seriously weakened and in the process of being given the Syria treatment, all of the post-Soviet space except for Belarus has been flipped, or is in the process of being flipped, and Russia is being mercilessly bombed 24/7 while its leadership sings the praises of the people who are doing the bombing.
If that is the Western Nazis losing, I don't want to imagine what them winning looks like...
How all these things so fully escape the attention of the commenters here is something I will never understand. One might add that American bonds are still being bought, so that means everybody BUT America is paying for the war. But sure, the US is mere minutes, if not seconds, from imploding.
"How all these things so fully escape the attention of the commenters here is something I will never understand. "
Because they live in fantasy land. Because Russia are the good guys, they have to win because the good guys always win, right?
Seems to be the thinking.
1. Syria is a catastrophic defeat for Russia? Why exactly? Maybe an inconvenience, a setback, but catastrophic defeat? If you describe regime change in Syria as a catastrophe, what do you call the outcome of twenty years US war in Afghanistan?
2. Practically nobody in the US thinks that the Iran war was a successful one for Trump. In my opinion, not even Trump believes it.
>Syria is a catastrophic defeat for Russia? Why exactly?
Because you haven't looked at a map. The way the dominos fall is:
Syria -> Iran -> Caucasus and Central Asia -> Russia -> China.
Now we are at the second stage, enabled precisely by the fall of Syria.
This sequence is so threatening that Russia was obliged to nuke Turkey to zero in order to protect Syria, but when Putin refuses to defend even official Russian territory from NATO missile attacks, well, what can we expect him to do outside Russia...
>Practically nobody in the US thinks that the Iran war was a successful one for Trump
Just a few months before Syria fell you could hear all sorts of loud proclamations about how Assad had won the war and the US had been defeated. Even though Idlib was not under Syrian control and the US occupied the eastern third of the country. How did that end?
Similarly, Iran's goal for this war had to be the physical removal of all US forces from the Middle East. Total physical removal. So that no new war can be started. Was that done? No, it wasn't.
So the stage is set of the next phase in the weakening of Iran with the coming resumption of the war.
Syria, Iran, Bla,Bla, and finally even China has been conquered.
Do you realise the foolishness of your arguments?
GM starts with idea the putting Al Qaeda in charge of Syria it a victory for sthe west.
Ah, so you are one of those naive souls who has still not figured out that Al Qaeda was created and always controlled by the West, which is why it somehow magically never attacks Israel but only does damage to the US's enemies.
It is a victory for the West.
uh...dude
Timber Sycamore
the Fucking JUSA was arming training and funding them PRECISELY for this purpose
they got what they wanted.
I am sure that back in 1987 or so you would have been saying that the idea that the USSR would imminently break up and become a US colony is foolish too.
But what happened in the real timeline?
Geopolitical chessboard.
π
Syria was a catastrophic loss for Russia because Syrian airspace is now conveniently open for western bombers, Israel destroyed all of Syrian air defense and most of its other weapons, the remainder of which were sent to Ukraine, and because Israel and Turkey now occupy much of Syria which may soon be used to attack Lebanon. (edited to correct misstatement - "Iran")
The outcome of the US war in Afghanistan is irrelevant, and it is complicated by the fact that the US rarely fights wars to win, but only to disrupt.
The thing about the Iran war(s?) is that they do not belong in the past tense. They are ongoing, and the US has in fact accomplished some things good for the empire. Iran has very helpfully destroyed a good bit of Arab oil production, for example, making the Europeans even more dependent on American energy - a fact that was used just last week by Trump in various of the threats he made. And the war has endangered part of the belt and road program as well as threatened some of the oil routes to China. It has also allowed Trump to run an incredible scam on the markets allowing him to dish out inside information to important people.
"a fact that was used just last week by Trump in various of the threats he made. "?
What 'threats' exactly?
Sorry, not good with dates. It was late March: https://europeangashub.com/trump-threatens-us-lng-supplies-to-europe.html
Thanks.
Also, Russian bases in Syria could presumably do boost-phase interception of Israeli ICBMs and US/UK SLBMs fired from the Eastern Mediterranean.
Once those bases are removed even that little bit of defense against an attack from the southern vector will be gone.
"Israel and Turkey now occupy much of Syria which may soon be used to attack Iran". Israeli ground troops marching from Syria through Iraq? Israeli airbases setup in Syria? Please don't suggest the Turks are going to attack Iran.
Western bombers flying through Syrian airspace to attack Russia? From where? Israel? Jordan? Bombers from NATO bases in Turkiye make a detour over Syria to attack Russia?
"The outcome of the US war in Afghanistan is irrelevant, and it is complicated by the fact that the US rarely fights wars to win, but only to disrupt." Bagram airbase was the size of a small town intended to be a permanent US base. Combined with Kandahar base they housed at their peak 66,000 US personnel - larger than S Korea. The strategic location was optimal for the pivot to China.
The threat to Russia is to its soft underbelly -- Syria will be used to destroy Iran, in fact it already is being used for that, and to breed jihadist for the next phases of the operation, then once Iran has been destroyed the jihaidsts will be pumped from there directly into Russia's southern regions and into Central Asia, for where both Russia and China will be terminally destabilized.
The problem with domino theories is they require you to be everywhere all at once. Any defeat anywhere leads to the defeat of the next domino, etc.
Indochina had to defended otherwise Thailand would fall, then more dominos leading to the US. In practice, the defeat in Vietnam didn't affect American security.
Iran and Afghanistan are key strategic interests to China, Russia and Pakistan, and American efforts have and will fail.
Halford Mackinder's Heartland/Rim theory is the rationalization that US and Israeli interests are the same. In reality, Syria's fall only helped Greater Israel.
Good point. The Western Countries had some setbacks in Africa too, but the world did not tumble down.
Iran seriously weakened? LOL. That must be your most outlandish claim ever.
Why has nobody seen the new Ayatollah and why are they negotiating without having avenged the death of the previous one?
Does it matter if anybody has seen him and even if he is dead? So what?
Jesus, sounds like Feral. lmao
Yes, it matters enormously.
Because they are playing it as if he is alive and giving orders.
But if he is not, then that means that the US did indeed successfully execute a coup in Iran
π
It just proves that they function perfectly fine (imagine my shock) and that decapitation strike doctrine is a joke. Cannot decapitate serious countries.
They cannot even decapitate militias. It works with corrupt compradors, though.
π
https://lily357.substack.com/p/cry-more-cry-harder-a-pessimists?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=3epvtg
I really think that given the amount of comments people (bots?) like you spent on seeding doubt and distorting the picture, this must be part of a organized psyop. Anyway... The rogue empire can cause trouble for sure but it canmot prevent its eventual collapse. Just look at major indicators like life expectancy, and development indicators. Everything is falling apart in the west. You seem to imply that you are actually anti imperialist so let me comfort you: the world will move beyond current imperialist designs and the elites that are currently syphoning off the wealth of everyone else will soon be powerless.
The real psy-op are Ritter, Johnson, Escobar, Martyanov, and all the rest. Even Mersheimer.
The goal of that psy-op is to lull the victims into complacency by the constant incessant parroting of the "Russia is winning" and "Multipolarity is inevitable". Meanwhile the empire is gaining ground everywhere and tightening the noose around the neck of the designated victims, who are too confused and paralyzed in their thinking to escape on time.
The west is completely overstretched. China has even entered the game. Dude YOU are living in in a western contrille PR fantasy
Russia is winning it cannot be otherwise, itβs in their nature. You talk a lot but do you know what molded the Russian soul? Go back to the battle for Stalingrad and perhaps, I repeat perhaps you will understand, Russia was brought on its knees there was only defeat, but there happened the turning point, the power of resurrection and the Will to survive. This breaking point of first utmost desperation was a necessity to bring forward the power to resist and thereβs wasnβt any choice left, WIN OR DIE. This is what no American or European Army is capable of, they win up to the final point where they lose and this is for Russians the hard lesson Stalingrad learned them, so whatβs happening now in mother Russia with NATOβs desperate agony they know perfectly how to handle it and turn it in their favor. NATO is fighting itself into a collective cemetery.
π
Those reporters/analysts provide a counter-perspective to the corporate media reports/propaganda aimed at complacency of public opinion for support of the war.
I know of no other journalist who has covered the brics developments than pepe escobar. And he has acknowledged their setbacks as well.
But the macro view that has not been mentioned is the dollar parallel. The loss of the petrodollars returning to US markets from the gulf states, the nakedness of the inability of the US military to protect the monarchies, the inflationary global stress that has not yet completely worked its way the global monetary systems, the drawdown of the strategic reserves to critical levels, and finally the acceleration to float a gold backed renimbi currency, which is discussed in detail by vince lanci at goldfix substack. Its important because it begs the question, how is treasury backed reserve currency going to compete with a 100% gold back chinese reserve currency?
One clue, and its just an outlier, but with intent is the one ounce 250th anniversary US MINT coin priced at $19,600...that is beyound a reasonable premium when spot gold is trading at $4000/ounce.
Militarily, iran has won the battle for the strait of hormuz. That is obvious. But it has not won the war.
The war will be won or lost on the ground. In order for the genocidal state of isreal to be defeated it has to be conquered on the ground, an invasion. Same with iran.
We are in the very early stages of this war. A Russian security official has said the regional wars that are forming into a global war will take "20 to 30 years to resolve". Thats a long time. Simplicius will be quoted far and wide.
Nobody cares what the crackpots, incels, and wackjobs here think.
π
Idiots donβt understand what is going on here.
Hegemon can wage 1000 years war, for it draws resources from much of Earth, whereas stupid Russians are relying on mercy of the anglosaxons.
The only way forward, remove ukrana from the map, depopulate: drive out/exterminate every living soul, establish nuke perimeter ON IT against europe, (short and medium range, they shit their pants on thought of those toys) and announce: βAre You Not Entertained!!!β
Let the scourge bathe in their own filth from now on.
Russians have everything to live on this planet, quite comfortably, well provided they get rid of communism, once and for all.
LOL
Ding a ling. The US couldnβt wage a 2 month war against iran, at the end of which most of its overpriced military tat needed a sedative and 2 year lie down, itβs tranny friendly βinvasion forceβ never made it out of the gay bars in san fran and itβs βleadershipβ demonstrated key stone cops level of incompetence.
1000 year wars donβt exist, and the US as a functioning society will be lucky to last 10 years.
Nut job.
West is not imploding thanks to Russia.
π
π£
The politicians are spoiled degenerates take australia for example the politicians are biggest load of fuckheads zionist appeasing primate garbage , fucked the country to oblivion , mongrelised it to shit and its not much better than a 2$ whorehouse
The unsettling message for the wider west (forget bonkers Ukraine) is that backing deeper strikes into Russia is not bringing Russia to the table, is not bringing Russia down internally, is not imploding its economy. It is ensuring that Western Europe will be left with far less of anything valuable in Ukraine at the end of it- which will be when Russia has control of Kiev and decision making processes, to establish an electoral victory. Sooner than you think since Ukraine cannot survive another winter- the west cannot afford for this to go on into another winter and then absorb the tide of refugees. All europe is achieving right now, is running the very real risk of its own fringe being turned into bombed out craters like Ukraine with the possibility of even deeper penetration by Russian attacks. To what end? To this- whole new governmental regimes across europe replacing the warmongers, to finally settle what could have been settled to far better return for europe years ago.
And no, the US is not going to ride to the rescue, and this applies whatever the November outcome. It wants an expensive embarrassment in Ukraine to top its expensive Iran embarrassment like a crater in its own head. Hence Trump keeps saying- we sell em weapons give then info back up, but that is all. (implication- if they lose, it will be down to them not least for refusing to co operate with our efforts to settle the war when they could have come out still standing).
I do not think the governments in Europe can be changed anymore than in Washington. Presidents and Prime Ministers are cycled through as they lose usefulness, but permanent governance in the US and Europe continues. We are living through the collapse of the American Empire with its' vassal states. The modern aristocracy, essentially the donor kleptocrat class will not relinquish power and the ability to plunder what wealth is left. In school we studied the collapse of the Roman Empire. Just as we saw how the British Empire collapsed. The most sobering aspect is this is the first Empire collapse in an age of nuclear weapons.
The donor kleptocracy (such as it can survive this upheaval at all) will follow the money, Brian. Whoever does take over to dig western Europe out of the dirt is going to have one hell of a job on their hands,
This is America's war on Russia, the original plan being take control of Russia then use their assets against China. Europe is under the control of its EU bureaucracy (theoretically) in actuality it directly takes orders from Washington - so until the US begins sending in European troops to replace Ukraine's now mostly dead Europe is of little consequence. Looks likely the US manipulators of Trump (the real powers) are planning to start with the UK having organised the disposal of their weak leader who had nevertheless said no to sending troops to Iran for the US war to take over the Middle East there..
The US wanted control of Russian assets (along with Ukrainian ones). That hope has gone along with turning Russia against China. There is no Act II for the US here, beyond how it might profit from Europe-Ukraine fighting on.
China, being in the position the US was in before previous world wars will almost certainly hold back until the side that can't lose becomes evident. They can then tip the balance to win and afterwards lend to both sides to rebuild from what's left. That virtually guarantees the Chinese century at the top as the Americans just finished with theirs. Hopefully their system won't hold us entirely responsible (as the Americans enabled the French to do Germany after WW1) which of course led straight to WW2. WW3 looks inevitable now so the survivors will need to come up with plans to avoid WW4, which I don't believe would be as low tech as expected. Hopefully the Chinese won't squander their victory as it looks like the Americans are about to do their previous victories, rather belatedly, entirely, I would argue, unnecessarily..
Which is why the elite are building additional homes in South America: for when the northern hemisphere is no longer comfortable for them.
VW firing 100.000 workers in Germany. The economic developments in Germany threaten the stability of the whole EU.
The German political establishment thinking about the prohibition of a party which is already first in several BundeslΓ€nder. Directly renouncing democracy and rule of law.
I do not see Germany or any European country fit for a serious conflict with Russia, article 5 or not.
"I do not see Germany or any European country fit for a serious conflict with Russia, article 5 or not."
This makes a lot of sense, but I still think you're going to be surprised. For one thing, if I were a European leader I would think I could wage an air war against Russia without fear either of invasion or nuclear retaliation. I'd think Russia would fold in some meaningful way before really dishing out serious consequences. There's no way Europe could mount a land invasion of Russia, but a limited war along a long contact line would be very convenient for many reasons.
Honey, your war against Russia is cute but that won't make you a European leader anytime soon.
Little man, I never suggested I wanted to be one. Every current European leader does seem to have the same opinion of Russia, though.
Cutie, you can take a girl out of Kharkov, but you can never take Dnepropetrovsk out of her. Cannot figure out your origin story but you've been a busy bee here working around the clock. Confusing genders, genres and doing other little womanly things.
Have you heard about the most boring resignation ever of Herr Starmer over la scandalo with three Ukranian male models?
I block pigs.
Its enough to close the Baltic Sea. Its coming.
So that's 100,000 workers suddenly available to make more drones to fire at Russia.
Not a win for Russia in any way
π
the german people are not really in favor of that
it's more likely to produce political upheaval, for what that's worth
however the JUSA had a brain dead president and the deep state continued as-is
Normally a society goes to war, to get rid of the surplus of young man that destabilizes the country. Either this young man die or they are the winners and comming home with a lot of loot, bringing wealth and social stability. But this time, there is no surplus of young man in the West!
War never brings wealth and prosperity, rather misery and poverty.
Male arm-bearing population 18-60 is 25% of total, plus females are also welcomed to army in most European countries.
The problem is that a large part are physically unfit and many are not ethnic people and would never join army and be loyal.
Still, during the 1st and 2nd WW Brits have brought to Europe Indian and African divisions.
If there is compulsory military service and war mobilisations, armies will swell by 10x.
"democracy on the march" has reached the EU courts:
"The EUβs top court has ruled that private individuals can face criminal prosecution for posting RT videos on public websites, widening the blocβs crackdown on Russian media.
The Court of Justice of the European Union issued the ruling on Thursday in a case from Germany, where three people are being prosecuted for publishing RT DE videos on a freely accessible website."
Article 5 has nothing to do with it. If NATO wants a war, they'll fight a war. A reason will be cooked up.
And those 100,000 workers will simply be press-ganged into the army or used to make drones.
That "Zelen Zu" quote caught me so off guard I never died laughing!