397 Comments
deletedJul 3
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So juvenile! Of course I would have been first had I not spilled my coffee and tripped on the cat jumping for the the keyboard!

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Did it again!!! 1st in comments!

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DENIS GOT ME BY A SECOND!! Story of my life. Just call me Joe.

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It's all good, Billy. I'll take off my comment which now makes you first. No need to call you Joe. lol

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That is all you seem to care about, how pathetic.

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well write a comment!!

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Ok, how about "Commenting for the sake of commenting or being first to comment without any cogent analysis of the topics at hand is ridiculous, pathetic, masturbatory and counter productive. Simplicius is on the money, but attracts a special and particular brand of puerile, dull, obsessive, broken misanthropes who often degrade the comments section to many fine articles into a morass of ad hominem noise."

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Hey, don't knock bikes. The IJA conquered the entire Malayan Peninsula and and took the invincible Fortress Singapore in 55 days with a third the people of the defenders, and the bicycle was a key part of their strategy, allowing them to move quickly with few vehicles. On the modern battlefield, anything that lets an infantryman move quickly and without being clustered up is a invaluable.

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As a Singaporean, the use of bicycles was fascinating, as the British campaign in Malaya involved setting up checkpoints on key roads, assuming that the very limited Japanese vehicles could not move through the thick jungles. The rapid outflanking of these checkpoints with bicycle infantry led to a very rapid collapse of British positions in Malaya... And now we are sort of seeing the same assumptions play out again, with Ukrainians assuming the Russians cannot advance with due to drone saturation...

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Honestly, forests in general seem like a good hiding place in the age of drone warfare. Branches tangle up rotors, visibility is hampered and there is lots of visual concealment for soldiers to use. Unfortunately Ukraine doesn't seem to have many forests, and if they tried it RUssia has the firepower advantage and can level them with FABs and TOS.

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Jul 4·edited Jul 4

I suspect that would be easy enough to address from a nation state like China, master drone penetrates foliage via Synthetic Aperture Radar, then directs smaller expendable drone to dive bomb through the trees.

Or go full Russian and drop a glide bomb on the area.

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founding

Yes and the ignorant westerners called the IJA 'Monkey men' swinging thru trees to move so fast......unreal.

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Don't knock scooters either. My Segway GT2 goes almost 50 mph.

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The Kagans know that winning incentivizes Russia to win even more, to win even harder, to win ever more tightly, so Ukraine now must stop Russia's winning strategy @ all costs, to stop its strangulating battlefield gains, in order to quit incentivizing Russia & to deny Putin a 'W'

The Kagans know that Russia's winning strategy is right out of the Russian Playbook.

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I hope Russia takes Odessa.

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when will russia start taking out the individual jew like Kagan wherever they may be? watch the rats scurry back to their tunnels.

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Yawn.......

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The Nulands (Kagan wife infiltrated DoS) believe their own neocon propaganda.

Worse one or more of them taught at West Point!

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And Mrs. Nuland has a nice sinecure @ Columbia University now

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when will Russia name the JEW as the world problem and work to take out the head of the snake?

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That would mean to take the Rothchilds, Rockefellers etc

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You can get them all by blowing up London

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I doubt that they didn't moved to New York in 1913.

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Because we are not racists. We do get that some of our most hated enemies (like Soros and the rest of the globalists) are jews. But we do not believe that all jews are enemies or that enemies are just jews.

We have fought hard against nazis and being anti-Semitic is very not-cool for a Russian (though we definitely have plenty of that). And we are also much more ok with scathing humour towards jewish diaspora.

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You may not be ‘racist’ against the Jew but the Jew is and it hates you. Why are you racist against Nazis ? Until Russia wakes up to the Jew problem and begins to hate them Russia will be under constant attack. Hitler understood that the oppressor of the Russian was the Jew commissar. He was not an enemy of the Russian.

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If only it was that simple. I suggest you get out more. Climb a mountain or something. Expand your horizons.

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Whatever Jew - Stop shilling for your chicken swinging tribe

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Ah now I understand. "Jew" means anyone who disagrees with you. Perhaps a psychiatrist would help.

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No, they are all Jewish.

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3

I understand that you are insane. But are you trying to tell me that a person who called all slavic people "Untermenschen", said that we are incapable of state-building and killed millions of civilians for some "Lebensraum" was not an enemy of the Russians? You are either insane or have drank so much copium, that it is no longer funny. Hitler was one of the worst monstrosities ever to walk this wonderful planet. Abominable people that you hate (Soros) have yet to achieve his level of pure cruelty and evil (not for the lack of trying).

Enemy is enemy. He doesn't have a race. A race is not the enemy. The enemy is enemy.

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I take it you are a Jew which proves my point. Soros is a Jew who does what he does for his tribe. If you do not see that you are just cattle to slaughter. Goyim according to the Jew.

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F off Nazi scum.

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Good write. There is no place here for racism.

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Shut up Jew

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Shut up nazi turd

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lol.

The Jew is immunized against all dangers: One may call him a scoundrel, parasite, swindler, profiteer, it all runs off him like water off a raincoat. But call him a Jew and you will be astonished at how he recoils, how injured he is, how he suddenly shrinks back: "I’ve been found out".

Joseph Goebbels, Goebbels on the Jews:

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Unit 8200 much?

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Most Jews are Russians. Or were. The Soviet Union was the first country to recognise Israel. Orthodox Jews wear Russian hats. Russia still has a Jewish oblast on the Chinese border.

If things turn sour in the US and ME, there could well be a return.

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That idiot Truman first recognized that illegal state. Of course the Jew run Soviet recognized the illegal jew stat as well. It was illegal to be anti Jew in Soviet Russia. Same with the Jew zelensky (the piano player ) who attacked the Russian Orthodox Church but kept synagogues safe. How many Jews fled Ukraine to leave their goyim to fight the Russian goyim ?

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Another great update, seems that the increasing Ukrainian losses and new fronts are starting to create a collapse. Russia just needs to keep increasing the pressure and the falling grains of sand will turn into an avalanche.

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I said in around January that the UAF would start to collapse in late Spring [ie May] based on western reports of their ammo and air defence missile stocks. This indeed has become the case, folowing the earlier blood-letting at Adeevka. Of course it depends what you mean by "start to collapse" and I carefully was vague! However I meant that the UAF would no longer be able to successfully contest the battlefield and would start to suffer reverses everytime the RF chose to attack a sector - again not every tactical operation but every operational level attack over time. This does seem to be the case and has been for several months now.

The UAF is spinning a narrative about it being constantly rebuilt but I think the reality is the exact opposite. It is crumbling in real time and each day that passes is less able to contest the battlefield. I believe the RF aim is to finish the UAF as any sort of effective fighting force by late summer ie the beginning of September. We'll see. But that timeframe seems to fit stories of various NATO actions and preparations? Anyway, depending on your definitions, that is when a "full scale collapse" might occur.

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I was with you on the timeline. Now the acceleration phase begins. “Rebuilt” in this context means patched back together. Each iteration is significantly less effective than its predecessor.

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MSM downplay Ukrainian casualties and damage until it cant be hidden.

NATO armies forced to admit they have low readiness, post sabre rattling.

US MSM and Dem leadership , feign shock and surprise at the reality of Bidens competency.

Immigration, DEI, "renewable" energy

Whole lot of delusion or a whole lot of lying going on.

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It does seem that those in charge of the West prefer to rely on favoured narratives rather than rely on pesky things like facts.

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Probably because the facts are lined up against them?

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exactly; just like they did with Biden...downplay and right out lie until it can't be hidden.

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On the "assault bikes", I actually remember reading about that back in 2023 - except it was the Ukrainians doing it, with electric dirt bikes, during their 2022 successful assaults. The Ukrainians also started the whole drone thing at scale as well - credit where its due. The Russians observed, adapted, and scaled up accordingly, which is one of those things you see in war anyway

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The RF also saw "Furiosa" & took some cues from Dementus & the Biker Horde. The RF're gonna do it in the dirt a la Mad Max on machines built by AURUS w/ a rooster tail of eat-my-dust dirt pluming behind them

! Forza, Uncle Putin !

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Evgeniy Knieval wringing the handlebars for speed & jumping the Dnipro toward the parking lot of Death, tearing along @ 0-100mph on a chromed-up AURUS w/ the soul of a junkyard throttling inside

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Electric dirt-bike assault!? I've never heard of such a thing. I'm not saying you're wrong, but it is pretty amazing. I did read of an electric military bike being developed for special forces so they could do stealth assaults, but I believe there are good reasons why we won't see electric ground vehicles being used by the military, at least not yet and at least not on a large scale. Recharge time, power density, weight and the logistics train. You can stockpile gasoline and move it up to the frontlines in ways you just can't do with electrical charge.

But of course, I could be wrong, the technology and the battle space is changing very fast

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No, it really was a thing!

https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/ukraine-soldiers-electric-bikes/

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Yes, it does look like a thing but I'm noticing only one or two pictures of spotlessly clean bikes, soldiers and gear.

This looks like an experimental test, partially for publicity purposes. I can see how they could be useful in small missions, but to be useful over time they would have to be built and deployed in large numbers. You will have to expect in war that large numbers will be wrecked, blown up, shot and abandoned.

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Yes sure, it went quiet pretty quick after. I'm saying the Russians probably learned from it and turned around and deployed it at scale

Then again - WW2 vibes - who doesn't love their Royal Enfields...

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3

Not with modern Chinese EV batteries and charging tech - they getting premium mileage

They got a 4Ton plane up on a battery, are getting an 8T up next month

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I wonder how they refuel in air? ;-)

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How do all airplanes re fuel in air?

That's the long answer - the short is the 4T was built with 2,000k range, the 8T with double, the 16T...you do the math

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Oil will still be the most dense and portable energy store, though.

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Not for all eternity - if battery tech continues to progress at anything near recent improvements.......

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Same issues that anyone with a brain would apply if they're considering buying an EV.

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The Russians seem to be using the bikes as one way vehicles. An electric version would be excellent for that.

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The efficiency of the RF, as Simp breaks it down, the total economizing on the battlefield is reminiscent of a Floor Manager in a factory orchestrating the daily production quota on the line: 55-minute stints of nonstop work w/ a 5 minute stoppage to spell the labor; 7 stints per 8-hr shift--a mechanized Math Story Problem in-operation, industrious & Stakhanovite. The RF's battlefield successes mimic the economics of shop floor manufacturing.

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Just how stupid are Ukrainians? They must be the most pig headed belligerent jerks out there

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They really are. To fight against a such huge country who can annihilate you completely in seconds is just pure stupidity. Also, most of the critical energy comes from Russia also.

It's either one of the 2 scenarios:

1. This war is a bluff to cover the laws and actions of the WEF with agenda 2030 (less people, own nothing, eat bugs, vaxx etc), meaning that Russia and China play along with the West in this

2. Destruction of Russia have failed and now they want just to make some room for those who flee from Israel. Otherwise I don't see why this effort to completely destroy the Ukraine and Ukrainian society.

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Nope. Look further.

The whole UKR is a cult of death, starting from the very first words of their anthem and ending with the epic graveyards full of flags now. And fields of bodies of abandoned UKR soldiers.

The beliefs of local people are insane. They're proficient in listening to professional liars who tell them every day BS about how their nation is the best and how they can beat anyone in any area (including military manufacturing, space exploration, I'm not kidding, they're just infantiles). Even now when the prospect of the country survival is grim. The majority of the population enjoy these sweet dreams, even when the reality speaks otherwise.

Don't get confused by the man who run away from mobilization there as even they still support the war and believe all the lies. It's just that they don't wish to pay with their own lives for UKR survival, they all just want someone else to do the job for them (ideally, westerners). I've spent a considerable time understanding their psychology and way of thinking, and can bring plenty of personal examples of how these people behaved in RU for years prior to SMO as RU was the most popular destination for UKR workers (especially construction workers) to earn good money. Yeah, they totally believed RU is a backward country yet they worked there in large numbers and made a fortune building factories and housing to Russians. Most of them didn't share sincere stories about their experiences in RU like the actual state of the roads and civilian infrastructure which in the last decade got way better even in provincial cities while UKR degraded heavily. It's just doesn't match their beliefs so, yeah, they will tell fantasy stories instead.

So considering all these I hope you now have a better understanding why UKR people have not much problem being essentially slaves to the Western masters and serving their interests while performing the most stupid nation suicide in the modern history.

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Just how mesmerized must the Taiwanese be, watching this wreckage but not connecting the dots to how the U.S. has porcupined their island w/ weaponry *for many years,* prepping a soon-to-come hellscape in the name of fig-leaf *democracy*--?!!?

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60% of Taiwanese did not vote for the independence Party.

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It's not about the vote or voters--it's about the political class backed by the hegemonic elite [like has happened in every other place where a tasty cannon-fodder nation was being prepped as a tool against a geopolitical competitor/adversary. See Georgia. See Hong Kong. See Ukraine. See Taiwan]

Remember: if voting mattered, they would not let us do it

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their education has been terrible for 20 years or more now

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Thx to confirm my previous post

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I doubt it, given the number who have voted with their feet.

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It says at least as much about the ability of the Anglo-Zionist "leadership", that they are able to so easily manufacture ultra-nationalist frenzy to such an extent that it bypasses the cerebral cortex and causes citizens of countries to act against their own best interests.

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Don't give much credit to them. Bandera followers were already brainwashed and ready to sacrifice themselves since WW2. It's a typical cult, but this time it was inflated to a country level. The West didn't do much beyond helping them rising a generation of uneducated people with magical thinking and irrational hatred towards RU.

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3

So for all those crowing that the West can do what it likes to Russia and Russia can't hit back (to which some of us got tired of pointing out that Russia was winning and did not need to escalate, indeed would be foolish to escalate and lose the support of allies) The penny has finally dropped.

Russia does not hit BACK because it is on the FRONT foot. It presses on relentlessly in the one arena that really counts beneath all the flamboyant western rhetoric- Ukraine. And if the west continues to fuel hostilities, Russia will have to conclude that it must take all Ukraine to establish a secure border along the edge of Poland et al.

Everything is resolved militarily as Putin said it would have to be. The issue of war reparations disappears since the west is going to have to give back Russia its assets so that Russia can rebuild Ukraine for which Russia says, thank you very much, about time. And there is no issue of Ukraine joining NATO as there is no Ukraine, nor of this now f.Ukraine joining the EU.

This would be the tidiest solution for global security and world peace, and another nail in the coffin of an absurdly willie waving militaristic western empire that does not actually have the cojones to fight anyone- not with its own blood and guts, and is running out of idiots willing to spill their own for it. The Taiwanese must be watching all this with an unsurprising concern. Time for them to remember who they really are.

I said elsewhere that the one solution that will save the old western empire in something like its current estate is to do a deal with Russia now over Ukraine's head, giving Putin all he asked for in his last settlement offer, before that offer dissolves, superseded by events on the ground.

If western powers led by someone who belongs in a nursing home, do not decide to do just that at the forthcoming NATO summit, they have signed and sealed their own death warrant, because NATO will definitely not survive this war, whether it decides to go out honourably in a blood bath on the Russian front (as if!!!) or in some gibberish filled back room (same old, same old).

Still, at least it won't come as any sort of shock to the western public.

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"Russia does not hit BACK because it is on the FRONT foot"

This!

Merch ready, too: would love a mug, t-shirt or bumper sticker

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I am in the wrong job, CS! :-)

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"...western powers led by someone who belongs in a nursing home..."

They made their hospice bed & now must lie in it

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Led by the Jew who cares not for how many goyim die.

Why do Ukrainians allow themselves to be lead tot he slaughter by the penis piano playing jew zelensky and his Jew government?

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Piss off you antisemite provocateur.

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Shut up Jew. Go swing a chicken.

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"willie waving" but no "cojones"

yabba-dabba-doo

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>Russia does not hit BACK because it is on the FRONT foot.

More delusional thinking.

Go back to 1991. Russia controlled all of Ukraine, and the population was mostly pro-Russian.

Rewing forward to 2024. What is the situation?

What are the prospects for returning to 1991, how much will it cost in blood and treasure, and how long will it take?

Now who is on the FRONT foot strategically?

P.S. Fighting a war of attrition when the war is a civil war and it was instigated by your enemies precisely with the purpose of draining your resources, is the height of insanity. Especially when you have to tools to make it quick and decisive victory. But you refuse to use those tools for whatever reason...

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More delusional thinking from the great moron

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Stuck in the past along with the rest of western opinion formers. Still, it's good to have confirmation of why the west is losing this proxy war. It never engaged with the reality of Russia today.

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Ok boomer

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"Go back to 1991"

You'd like that, wouldn't you? Unfortunately, it's 2024 and the Globalist American Empire is collapsing around your head. Enjoy the L, boomer.

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Hell, in 2019 most of the Ukrainian population was pro-Russian.

That said, look at the transformation in attitudes in Chechnya in the last 20 or so years.

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Russia never controlled all of modern Ukraine. Stop confusing Russia with the USSR.

Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland are going to reclaim the territories that the Soviet Stalin (a Georgian) forced them to cede post WW2.

There was no Ukraine as a nation prior to 1915 and it in no way resembled the Ukraine of 1991.

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Or maybe Ukraine is the battlefield and the real enemy is elsewhere? This war will stop when the EU starts to scream in pain.

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"Russia does not hit BACK because it is on the FRONT foot", is a nice phrase for marketing, it's like a drum, it produces its sound due to the inner emptiness.

Right now Russia only responds to the Ukraine front, and not to the rest of the NATO front, because timing, "in strategy there are various timing considerations. From the outset you must know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from among the large and small things and the fast and slow timings find the relevant timing, first seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the main thing in strategy. It is especially important to know the background timing, otherwise your strategy will become uncertain".

Putin is a master in timing, for example, when the USA started to expand the NATO's borders, Putin knew it was an inapplicable timing to react by force, since Russia was too weak, but it was an applicable timing to dialogue while gaining strength.

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3

I don't disagree with any of that. I did not want to suggest that Russia was simply an automaton rolling along on its own momentum. Putin is THE Grand Master of strategy in its finest form - as a martial art. And the greatest power is not in swinging the fist. It is knowing how, when and where to pull a punch..... and then release it.

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The OTAN front does not affect the LOC, whose map Russian Forces win every day

Sounds like Russia has officially responded to the OTAN front, which plays out in non-LOC spaces: GloboHawk recon; martyred children building sandcastles on a Crimean beach; Crocus City terrorism.

Lavrov has had his sit-down w/ ambassadors from the U.S., France & the UK

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3

I'm not quite as optimistic. But Russian leadership is dealing reasonably well with a tricky problem. And it's going to take a big bite out of the US/NATO global hegemony. The US still has in it the ability to make things worse, especially with a regime as far gone as the one in Kiev, who is willing to quite literally sacrifice their population to the last million working men, if they can collect a few bucks along the way.

But that will also be a useful lesson to people in Taiwan or SE Asia or the Near East. There is even - slowly - some recognition of this in Washington. They're starting to wake up to the fact that the must make tradeoffs. Washington, too, is too far decayed and I don't think can pull off a compromise. They've already set up too many parties to block such a compromise, from when they were confident they wouldn't need it.

When Trump gets elected as now seems likely, his second administration like his first probably won't be able to do anything at all. Other than ship more gear to Israel.

The lowest-common-denominator solution of in UA, bulk demilitarization, is thus set to keep going.

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The tough thing: the ruling elite of Taiwan have colluded w/ the U.S.'s plans for the island & are doubling down on that collusion.

I *get* that ordinary Taiwanese do not choose the *hellscape* that's being prepped for them--but they are not the deciders. They are hostages.

[ CIA presence in Taiwan started in 1949. Project Ukraine was a snack, a zakuski, compared to the main course entree Taiwan has become ]

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Jul 3·edited Jul 3

Most of Ukraine's pre-war oligarchs got screwed too

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There's always a silver lining somewhere.

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"willie waving" LOL.

"giving Putin all he asked for in his last settlement offer..." Hope it doesn't go that way. Russia absolutely needs Odessa, Kiev and Kharkov in the deal, else there will surely be another war shortly after.

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Leave a border zone that Poland and Hungary runs

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My Potato-in-Chief belongs in the Alzheimer's wing of the nursing home.

Putin is only going to cut a deal with the US unless the Banderan Kapo Zelenski has been removed and a legitimate leader is elected.

The rest of NATO and the EU is irrelevant for any forthcoming deal. The agreement, if you want to call it that, will be imposed, not negotiated.

We all know the terms Putin has established.

NATO probably won't last. I am willing to bet zero dollars that the first departers will be Hungary and Finland. For Romania, Slovakia and Poland to reclaim their lost territories they will have to agree to leave NATO.

Romania will also get Moldova as a consolation prize. The US will pay big bucks to keep Turkey in NATO and out of BRICS. Erdogan will gladly accept the big bucks and stay in NATO and join BRICS.

Great summary, just had to put in my two cents

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Thank you for yet another informative and comprehensive analysis.

A couple of comments:

1) Palau is on the list of "high income" countries because it literally sells its UN votes (to the United States, mostly). It is truly a tiny country (~18k inhabitants) so a couple of million bucks in aid goes a long way over there.

2) If you're a woman in Ukraine, and you work in a clothing shop, you are exempt from conscription. But if you're a pharmacist (or nurse, doctor, etc), you're not. Hence all the women dropping out of med schools/programs, which is a long-term kick in the nuts to the health of your country. Because over half the medical personnel in places like Ukraine are women.

3) Zelensky has already sold >50% of Ukraine's agricultural land to foreign corps, and now there's a new bill to let him sell off the rest. So yeah, Blinken is right about the Patriots - them tiny hats want some protection for their investments, y'all!

4) No mention of Orban's little visit to Kiev yesterday?

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The big US financiers behind this bonkers war the West was so determined to have, are threatening to force a Ukrainian default if the US does not do all sorts of stuff to shore up their longer terms interests. What a mess. Meanwhile, back in Europe, the MSM has declared a blackout on the fact that EU states are about as willing to underwrite further US loans to Ukraine as they are to drink a bucket of sick.

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If something can't go on forever [deferring a loan payment], it will stop

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Sales of such land during war time are bound to be contested, not only by the victors but by any peace terms 6 it would be surprising if this was not foreseen in the 'contracts'

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Of course it's been seen and considered in their risk analysis. I trust Blackrock to be fairly adept at risk analysis/management. Or maybe they need a big write-off?

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And because of No. 3, the EU is killing its farmers. The big finance companies needs a good return on the invested Dollars. And the best customer is just around the corner: The EU! But the EU had always to much Butter, Milk and Corn, so we see "The Green New Deal", which restricts the use of fertilizer (and other chemicals), and takes away fertile land for "nature" (20%!!!, really this is the already agreed plan). So the EU is quickly destroying the farmers and the food production, just to please some big investors. As I am an owner of some agricultural land, I can only hope that the Russians occupy a lot of Ukraine, so that the EU needs strong farmers to feed the population, and no parts of my land gets converted into "nature" - whatever this means.

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The EU is so bonkers on so many levels. Something in the water? Like who really cares about all their self-destructive virtue signaling. The costs of that, however, seem to be coming home to roost and voters are noticing (maybe).

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It's corruption. It's always corruption, without fail, when something fails to make any sense. The virtue-signalling is a front.

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"4) No mention of Orban's little visit to Kiev yesterday?"

I don't think that was in any way a significant matter. Orban did that as part of routine intra-EU politics, simply moving a pawn forward to grab a square on the chessboard that says "Yeah, all you morons, I actually went to that sewer Kiev to talk peace to the nazi scum you support. So now we all know where you stand because none of you idiots had the backbone to say 'ceasefire' to the jerk the US put in charge."

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The video ofJan Oberg has a bit of a deep fake kinda thing vibe for me. His actions don't seem natural, ie all the hand waving. On the closer up his hair doesn't seem real. Maybe not...

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As Elon Musk sometimes says: "It looks so fake it must be real."

I was also curious, so looked him up and he has many videos going back years. Here is the long version that Simplicius has shortened...

http://www.dingdingtv.com/?p=97563

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Thanks, I also had to check on his other videos. Unless they are all fake, LOL.

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the nytimes claims Russia suffers 25-30,000 casualties per month & as Big Simp says, "With the connections an outfit like NYT has, they could easily pull strings and get the real numbers, but they don't want to..."

They can't even reach out to Seymour Hersh--?!!?

Deceivers deceiving.

Quick--!! Where's my Fainting Couch--?!!?

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Kyiv has been published "indicative" Russian losses since the start of the war which have been exaggerated by a factor of about 10x. They are now in the absurd position of reporting more total Russians killed than people who ever participated.

https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1808383641975734730

So McGregor's number of 50-63k seems about right. As for Seymour Hersh, he and his sources seem to have lost their mojo.

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Russian MoD reports consistently for some time now ~2K Ukr dead and wounded ... per week! Good enough for me as they seem to keep their figures well and are way more believable than the junk coming out of the AFU, et. al. But, if you believe 30K / month mobilization on the Ukr side, they are running a 50% deficit, not counting the lack of training and weapons.

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I thought it is per day now on the UA side. 1.5-2K casualties per day inflicted. either way, I do not think the end of UA regime is that far off. the amount of crumbling that is happening becomes more and more impossible to hide

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Oh yes, quite right! Sorry about that.

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Fascinating breakdown of the delicate dance being performed on the front lines. These refined combined arms tactics are the result of experience, careful thinking, practical imagination and most of all listening to, and learning from, those functioning at the battalion level and below. This is a very healthy and astute military machine.

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Jan Oberg's speech about the fall of the US empire is nothing new. Many of us have been saying the same thing for years. The US wants to lead the world through its own rules and vision of how it wants it to be. Any country that opposes US supremacy gets wrecked. Any country leader that threatened to use an alternative to the USD got crushed. Such a US policy is as it always has been throughout my lifetime which has caused its demise over time.

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Nothing like the abuse of power to spur a coalition of the abused. Perhaps if we hadn't invaded Iraq x2, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc American could have ruled another 50-100 years; instead we formulated a geographically contiguous anti-US alliance that comprises the most important countries of Eurasia, with billions of people the largest GDP in the world, the most advanced missile technology, the greatest natural resources, the largest manufacturing economy, and the combined largest energy reserves (if you include Venezuela, Iran and Russia). Not at all smart; not at all. Losing the chess game.

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'Perhaps if we hadn't' ...the saddest of forlorn delusions

- the US military/ruling class behaviour is not selective nor judged case by case on anything approaching rational considerations of present or future power,

It's an imperative addiction

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50-100 years? These people can't think beyond next quarter. Period.

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Think of the Bandung Conference in Indonesia, and the follow-up Cairo Conference: African-Asian anti-colonial solidarity convocations based on economic & cultural cooperation.

In the wake of Bandung & Cairo, the U.S., which participated in neither, formed a Working Group on the Afro-Asian Conference: the State Department under John Dulles anchored this *working group,* as did the CIA's Allen Dulles. DOD was part of it.

You can guess what happened to Indonesia's Sukarno, who helped create the Non-Aligned Movement which Bandung & Cairo inspired...

Failed coup for Sukarno, executions, military takeover, massacre of civilians on the beach in Bali. The fledgling USAID organization got involved.

Oberg's speech nails it

[President Xi spoke of both Bandung & the Non-Aligned Movement the other day, according them historical import.]

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A big difference between the Bandung Conference in Indonesia in 1955 is the level of industrialization, both comparatively and absolutely. If those newly independent nations wanted to progress technologically, they had maybe two options, USA or USSR each with their own conditions. there are many more options now.

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Agreed.

But when the hegemon hears talk about the Non-Aligned Movement or watches BRICS+ constitute itself, it only sees a threat to its dominance, as much now as in 1955-1966. The hegemon doesn't say, "Hey, how cool--an anti-colonial cavalcade of cooperative win-win nations--!! Wow--why didn't I think of that?Sign me up!"

The hegemon's DNA is not different now from what it was in 1955: it has not caught wise to the fact that it has no industrial base, that it presides over a service-based economy which generates no cash, that it suffers under massive unpayable debt.

The hegemon's knee-jerk response to the threat BRICS+, for instance, poses--or all this happy talk about non-aligned cooperation--is the same now as back then

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