Last time I debunked the new narrative being trotted out about mass Russian casualties, all to deflect from Ukraine’s own progressing collapse. Now this narrative has shifted lanes to the loss of Russian equipment, with a coordinated effort from pro-Western media to depict the Russian military as running out of tanks, artillery barrels, and armor altogether—not to mention the tired retread of the ‘low ammo’ trope.
The F-16's on their way, no one knows how many or when or even where, maybe 20 to begin with, have been 'donated' - I'm sure that does not mean for free
But maintenance, weapons costs, spare parts and so on - who is going to pay?
A whole-of-OTAN endeavor: if the Netherlands pony-up a dozen F-16s, then they will want some get-backs--perhaps [a certain number of promised] F-35s in exchange. Out with the old, in with the new: an even swap ain't a swindle
As far as I know both countries, Dutch and Danish, decided to 'give' their F-16's to Ukraine when they bought some F-35s - they were also allowed to sell some to Argentina
But then the F35's started to not arrive, some are in tech3 refresh limbo parked in a lot in Arizona - I think the Danes had to take some 'trainers' instead of the real thing
So suddenly the F16s look like useful planes in case NATO declares war or whatever - and so....Besides the possibility that their advisors might have told them once again that the F35s are very expensive rubbish best to stick to the F16s
Danes & Dutch catching wise to the scam & getting jumpy. As if the Washington summit wasn't bad enough for morale, OTAN is revealing its squishable inner works: a vacancy inside a void within a vacuum. Think of the caliber of Narrative Control that will spew from the OTAN-compliant media websites if *no* F-16s show up--how they'll strive to take a 'W' nonetheless
The Danes and the Dutch are adept at walking the Mass Party Line - see the Third Plenum for details - but you know KK will come up with the perfect formula to explain why no show - they're too good to be wasted on the RF we're sending them to...fight AAllah, to Taiwan...to...Gaza....
Imagine the fake fortitude, twisted morals and intellect harbored by the heads of NATO nations after spending 60 seconds with Biden. FFS, even the lying U.S. Media finally admitted Joe hasn't been home for years, likely his entire time as pResident at the White House.
Curious that our foolish Aussie is being cremated in Kiev, likely with Russian gas.
Thank you for your comment – it does look like all this F-16 chitchat is merely a diversion
I have seen some vague talk of maintenance teams, 12 people per plane?, spare parts, Constanta air base the biggest in Europe etc etc and so on – but nothing precise – who is going to provide and pay for all this? Surely not the Danes Dutch
The RF must have been drooling at the fat pickings to be had
Presumably Argentina made sure it got first choice, and the scrap heap was left for Ukraine
Some suggested that they’ll not show up, diverted to Houthi duty, or Tel Aviv or Taiwan
I can't remember the manning document, probably was classified.
The only advantage is EU pilots got less annual in flight training so the airframes may be lighter used. Bit time and dew (corrosion) causes a lot of problems.
Many specialist required beyond the airframe!
Spares are a big issue, fly a lot and break a lot.
I would note that our allies we are trying to buy off, Ukraine and Turkey, are getting F16s rather than 35s. You can't fly a F35 within 20 miles of a thunder storm according to Zero Hedge reporting on a US military announcement. F35s are so reliant on their computers to fly that they are susceptible to Electro-magnetic pulses on their fine computer chips even from thunder storms. I don't think the F35s invisibility cloak works with phase-arrayed radar which Russian high end aircraft carry.
The dark secret is the Chinese chips and switches have the same half-line of PRC quality. But the Bush, Clinton, Obama and Biden families thank you for your service.
Not wanting to dirty up her hands, KK will gravitate to hydroponics, a soil-free style of plant cultivation that bathes roots in a nutrient-rich water solution.
! Ideal for indoor urban settings & limited spaces !
Considering KK's obvious limitations, tending posies in limited spaces is right-sized to her skills
I'm going to have to leave her in your hands - your empathy is the way you read her delicate yet wolverine features, un russianed by a Siberian childhood, the skill with which she can manage to live indoors after a life in her native yet savage northern woods....
KK says shovels are masculinist and not gender neutral - that the North Koreans need to be de shovelled as well as ...er de shovelled , and decolonised pronto
The people asking the questions of the Australian merc Chippy sounded like infantile half wit morons. Western populations have become so dumbed down it isn't even funny anymore. I have first hand experience being Australian myself.
Afraid so...the loss of both intelligence and an educational system that works is wreaking havoc on most of the American population, which can no longer discern fact from fiction...
A major cause is TV. Children used to read and this forms solid neural pathways. Now they don't read but watch TV and never develop them as they did in the past. The hardware isn't there.
That certainly is harmful...parents need to seriously restrict computer time, and find interesting and appropriate books that kids will enjoy reading--ex. Lloyd Alexander, Heinlein, the Hobbit....and many more
100%. Very poor education systems produce weak minds.
The lack of any scepticism or critical thinking is sadly to be expected these days. These people believe everything the government and its various mouthpieces tell them.
The price will be heavy, when reality arrives. And it is coming.
Case in point is the Australian YouTuber Perun. He's barely out of uni with no life experience but you can tell by the way he speaks that he thinks he knows it all. All he does is repackage MSM propaganda into PowerPoint presentations and sells it as in-depth geo politics and war reporting. Classic example was when he took all the Ukraine propaganda about destroying a zillion Russian tanks and he boldy claimed that the tank has become obsolete... The fact that his main field of expertise before this was, wait for it, computer games (computer games seems to be the only western competency left) isn't even the worst thing. It's the fact that people actually think he is an authority and knows what he is talking about, unbelievable.... I guess people have always wanted to be sold fairytales so they can sleep well at night...
Experience in 'War Thunder' seems sufficient these days. Of course earlier experience in "Call of Duty" has sufficiently instilled the proper values. Lots of rubbish Youtube channels run by opportunists, so there's that element. But let's remember when this inevitably ends they'll find themselves reconciled to the final narrative of noble loss.
War Thunder, being a Russian game, is quite good at modelling armor clashes. Remember how two Bradleys scored a mission kill against a T-90 by peppering its optics, destroying a track and locking the tower turning mechanism? The Bradley gunner learned that in WT. That said, it doesn't make an expert by itself of course. Some people may stare at white and call it black.
The tank was disabled by FPV drones already before Bradleys engaged against it, if you watched full video. Considering the tank was already disabled, it's not a mission kill but it had it's propaganda value (very good propaganda shot). It made lots of ignorant western fanboys happy. If I was making decisions for the Bradleys I would've ordered them to quickly get the hell out of there after making quick video, because both Bradleys got damaged/destroyed by Russian FPV drone operators and tanks later according to one of Bradley commanders interview to Washington Post.
Yeah, but they knew exactly where these modules were because they faced this particular tank virtually. In a combat situation response time is essential, and they wasted none of that by looking for a target. They already knew it on instinctive level. Which made them something of a veteran.
"guess people have always wanted to be sold fairytales so they can sleep well at night..."
Public education being eviscerated works to benefit our masters. Much better that we study the Old Testament in grandma's basement rather than learn esoteric STEM concepts at PS22. Leave the mental heavy lifting to the Indians, Chinese and Russians. Never mind the study of history which gives you a clue as to what happened before granny was born. How many know that the Romans were in Britain longer than the US has been a country? How many know that the Soviets/Russians were the deciding factor for the 1930-40s Germans being defeated in WW2? That some in Germany or Europe generally want to take another whack at the "not to be fucked with" Russians leaves my head spinning. All of this for the benefit of the US arms producers who rely on chaos and lies to sell more weapons?! Depressing if you spend much time thinking about it. Adios FJB..and fuck the deep state ice cream cone you rode in on.
I have always found his stuff (a) seemingly balanced but (b) full of bias. So he tends to take the Russian worst case scenario and compare it with the NATO best case. Taking that into account he does dig up some interesting [facts]. I am not a regular follower but occassionally will waste a hour or so of my life listening to his stuff.
I can't stomach listening to him, I'm sure he does find some interesting things but as you pointed out, he's selling a story and it's always the same. He'll talk the Russians up as a valid and formidable adversary (need a decent villain for any fairytale) before he then disparages anything and everything about them and highlights that West is best and he uses all the BS data that the West puts out and takes it as gospel. He's not doing his followers any favours pulling the wool over their eyes but when the rubber hits the road and reality cannot be ignored all will be forgotten and he'll just move on to the next fairytale. Modern western audiences have the attention span and memory of toddlers.
I've been asking him repeatedly when his predicted "western industry goes brrrrrrr" is going to happen ever since he 2022 stated that was how Russia was going to be completely overwhelmed by the superior western military industry.
He was at the right place at the right time. The youtube recommendation algorithm favoured him because his channel was already pretty big, and he has a great confident delivery. He has an education in economics, which he leveraged to make good looking predictions about shell numbers and so on.
So Perun is basically acting like a con-artist, schilling dangerous propaganda. It would be interesting to find out if he is receiving any special "grants" or "stipends"...
Chippy's chipper responses & willingness to dig around in the old mailbag for sundry questions leave me thinking he's an avatar--like an advice columnist in a newspaper, an Agony Aunt, dispensing wisdom & pious adages: "We should be critical in our failures & observant of the enemy's successes."
Chippy is an AI-generated effigy, a totem for armchair warriors: "Every inch is paid for in blood."
Miss Manners is really Judith Martin--and I hope I'm not telling you that Santa Claus does not exist
I thought I was the only 1. I try to find a couple pro Ukrops just to see what they are pushing, it is just really difficult to find anyone who is not a full on propaganda pusher. I "fired" WillyOAM after a single video LOL
I have a good oz mate but he was so immersed in the MSM BS I wrote a 5,000 word summary (yes summary) of the causes and conduct of the SMO/war. I advised him to read it then delete from his hard drive. Dangerous having access to information. But he did thank me for it. However it taught me that few are interested in the actual detail and most succumb to a simple good/evil type narrative. Most people I know are like this. They cannot compute that they may have been systematically misinformed about some of most of the important things in the world. Luckily most are self educated on wine, women and song... And decent food, and sunshine. Don't forget those.
Yes, most people cannot mentally and emotionally cope with having their world-view torn down, it's safer and comforting for them to go on believing what they have been told to believe all their life. Few people ask themselves the question why do they believe what they believe. And yes, bread and circus keeps them occupied, sport and alcohol...
This. Especially when western population is stuck in emotional cage. They just "want to feel good and morally right" no matter what.
Its not just education its entire western elite mass controlling mechanism that are total propaganda and pure emotionalism. you dont need to think you need to FEEL.
Actually its extremely powerful method of control. You can sell any BS just control their emotions.
My step-son is 30 years old and we never really talked foreign policy but the more he realized how bad the media and politicians lied during the flu lockdowns (he refused to take the shots without any input from me. His Mother did not want me poisoning his mind LOL) Anyway, he mentioned something about Russia that was 1 of the media lies and I told him to remember to judge the media as the liars they are, it took him 6 months of research but he came up with the truth, mostly on his own so I think some people are capable of admitting they were wrong. I do think as we get older it is harder to admit we have been lied to for so long. I had to do that with Iran
I feel sorry for this young man, thoroughly propagandized by Western MSM. Completely brainwashed believing that he was on the right side of history fighting against evil. What's even worse is that his own family are unable to speak out about how the MSM is responsible for propagandizing their son & about this conflict that has nothing to do with democracy or Western values (which are being deliberately destroyed rewritten as wokeism). They themselves are completely ignorant about the nuances and the utter US bellicosity using Ukraine as a proxy war for their own avariciousness & hubristic desire for hegemony .
Here is a strong video clip (https://t.me/legitimniy/17579) about the children of the Ukrainian elite and ordinary Ukrainians who are sent to the trenches with rats. The children of Petro Poroshenko, Alexander Turchinov, Vladimir Groisman live in Britain The offspring of the mayor of Kiev, Klitschko, hang out in Germany without denying themselves anything.
The children of former Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and the son of former NSDC secretary, now Ambassador of Ukraine to Moldova Alexey Danilov, settled in the United States.
The children of former Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and the son of former NSDC secretary, now Ambassador of Ukraine to Moldova Alexey Danilov, settled in the United States.
As a young man I joined the real Foreign Legion when I was 18 and proudly became the youngest Cpl in my regiment the 2eme REI but after a few years serving abroad especially what I saw in Beirut in the eighties eventually woke me up from my naive outlook of the world & geopolitics,. So I do have some empathy for this young man who obviously had more courage than your average joe, prepared to stand up to what he believed rightly or wrongly, what he perceived as his moral imperative, his convictions even if completely misguided by the constant deluge coming from the duplicitous western MSM and the bastards at the top of the gravy train swilling political parasites. He was no Azov Nazi, just an ignorant victim of western propaganda from the Empire of Lies. May he RIP.
The amount of delusion and the insistence upon it being true is its own kind of fascinating study
Most citizens of the USA have been fed from the bottle since birth the absurd notion that American technology, whatever it happens to be cannot be defeated and has a magical quality
Whats interesting is the drones are able to carry quite a weight. Why aren't they used to transport injured/wounded (and maybe even be used in assualt operations at night to drop soldiers into enemy territory)?
An excellent observation, I can tell you from experience that this is the very first developing stages. At the front the enemy and us can almost see and hear everything that moves in the air. Unfortunately, there is no knowing if it is friend or foe. So when in doubt we shoot at everything that flies. If we are lucky then we can retrieve our drone from a neighbouring unit if it has been brought down by EW.
"drones are able to carry quite a weight" - that's not the case. They're superduper inefficient. Especially if you compare them to plain and simple helicopters.
You can never disregard physics... carrying and holding something up in the air takes a ton of energy. Hence the quadcopter carrying the soldier is moving extremely slowly.. aka sitting duck. A grenade would be 1/100 of the soldier's weight, or less... hence small munitions would work. But no, if flying was that cheap and easy, we'll all be in flying cars like decades ago. Plus electric battery holds way less power than combustible fossil fuels. Again, basic physics.
On a somewhat related note, I think there would be a very real and practical application of a ekranoplan
A small light, twin engine prop driven version with removable, modular cage type of panels to be used for rapid deployment
Frankly, I am surprised that they have not been employed, especially with all the tinkering around and combination of various aftermarket parts and technologies
If the Russian designers aren’t working on a prototype, they really should be
I think it would fill a very particular and necessary niche
Media in the West are auguring to maintain narrative dominance in typical fashion, demonstrating for its readerati that Russia will lose the war because its military is running out of shells, men, tanks, artillery barrels, etc.
Quoted in "The Economist" are unnamed Kremlin Whisperers who assert, bitchily, that Russia possesses "sophisticated" rotary forging machines only by the grace of the West because Russia has never produced its own equipment: "they imported from America in the 1930s & looted them from Germany after the war."
Note: *after the war*
The only war unnamed Kremlin Whisperers care about is WWII. For them, Russia's relevance began "in the 1930s" & ended "after the war." The Soviet period is what resonates for The Economist's readerati, so the unnamed Kremlin Whisperers must supply the red meat, the *red meat* in this instance being "high-grade steel," which somehow a resource-rich steel-producing powerhouse like Russia cannot lay its hands on, meaning additionally of course that "ramping up" production of artillery gun barrels "will be difficult."
This style of reportage or narrative management reeks of the recent strategy MediaZona evinced: shifting *how* it counts Russian casualties in order to amplify & inflate the *number* of Russian casualties.
Since Russia cannot "ramp up," it will lose the war.
For heaven's sake - read what CheetoSpring writes about how the west's reduction of facts to an old false narrative of victory in the WWII and subsequent Soviet decline has promulgated a self serving continued delusion held by the US ruling class of RF weakness and incapacity - far from the reality of RF arms production and war fighting
This contributes to or is the origin of the deluded belief that 'controlling the narrative' is equivalent to winning - hence 'whoever lies wins'
That this is clearly not the case is amply demonstrated by S post, and by various comments on supposedly capable US arms technology as exemplified by the largeley non operative and fabulously expensive to maintain F-16s and F-35s
Read the links I quote - as Mao said---- Investigate!
Excellent remark Julianne! GW is a master of deflection and projections and sometimes I think he is here to trash all logics and meaningful discussions.
Except that this strategy of talking the other side into defeat, has not worked. if it had, Ukraine would have succeeded in that counteroffensive so predeclared, precisely to induce terrified Russian soldiers to lay down arms and flee. Same with all the sanctions rhetoric proclaiming to the rest of the world that it would be economic suicide not to comply with the US agenda. That went well.
The wave of propaganda about Russian casualties, Russia running out of weapons, blah blah.... is a desperado push to keep Ukrainians fighting- to avoid the ignominy that will be foist upon their western handlers of a disorderly collapse, surrender and flight, (hello, Afghanistan) which is a very real prospect with far more truth on the ground backing it up, than any of the western fantasising.
Everyone in our own corridors of power knows this war has to end before winter sets in or Ukrainians will freeze to death or, far more likely, the bulk of the remaining population will become yet more western heading refugees. The only question outstanding is what Putin will for settle for- eastern Ukraine? Or with the loss of so many Russian lives, will he want to make that sacrifice count by taking all Ukraine and bring Russia up to the existing NATO boundary making Ukrainian membership of NATO an entirely redundant issue. He cannot trust anything the west says. He has to reduce the need to rely on its lying machinations. If there ever was a time to bring the scope for western mischief down the line to an end, IT IS NOW. And this is the way to do it.
The exit from delusion is always slow & "the scope for western mischief" is wide. In a post-Truth era, hopeless shills live in stochastic echo chambers of cacophony, giving appearances more force than reality: when they divide, they subtract.
Before the Peace Telethon Fundraiser in Lucerne, VVP presented to the West his baseline Talking Points for negotiation: complete AFU withdrawal from the 4 LOC regions *before* the negotiations could even begin, etc. And that was just the opening bid.
In a war between a rock & a stream, the rock wins every time.
Will VVP's opening bid still stand come October--?
I think Putin will leave a buffer zone as the now heavily armed neo-nazis in Western Ukraien are always going to be a problem to control- I think he'll let the surrounding NATO countries deal with them.
According to what comes out of Kreml about ”realities on the ground” they are satisfied with the four oblasts, no NATO for Ukraine and removal of the Junta in Kiev. I think it is a mistake not to exploit the opportunity they have now to move further west. US is always weakest the electionyear. When Trump enters it will be gruesome.
Mind that these are terms to begin negotiations, not overall Russian terms for ending the conflict. I'm sure there will be a demand for referendums in all of Ukraine after its army is disbanded or something like that.
I dont agree. They have expressed them as goals for the SMO. But I agree with a referendum and disbanded army. Problem is that West will not disband anything in Ukraine. That must be made with force. What I like with Putin, Lavrov&Co is that they do not talk in riddles or with forked tongues.
I was reading ZH about a possible trump presidency and the implications for the Ukraine War. One commentator there made the following point which I thought was insightful. Trump is (possibly??) now saying that if Ukraine won't talk and agree peace then he will cut off aid. But Z seems to be talking or making noises that they will. However the point was - and missed by most including me - is that Mr T has also said that he will flood the Ukraine with weapons if Russia does not agree to a deal. And his [??] proposed deal is very far from what I think "The Putin" might accept. And that might be the quid pro quo for not getting shot at again - he is on record saying he will escalate to force a peace - presumably on terms preferred by the USA deep state. I just raise this here as not my view but an interesting twist.
This side of the pond nobody missed that part. Trump means pointless escalation and a lot more support for Ukraine, infringed only by Israel’s needs, to try and force more preferential deal. Since they still don't hear Putin and discuss “temporarily losing territory to fast-track Ukraine into NATO” instead of forgetting about it entirely and hoping that NATO returning to its 1997 borders would not appear on the table, it will take a while to reconnect them to reality. That's why Putin wants Joe to stay.
This holy Tramparamp new "messiah" thinks he will order "tiny" Putin and Putin will rush to obey.
Thats why VVP understands what cloud of nonsense new "messiah" is. Thats why old dumb Joe is better.
Why? cause silent and slow idiot (Joe) is much better than agressive uncontrolled and dumb Trump(especially after "divine intervention", i guess trump really thinks he is Apostle now). Holy shit i watched RNC i couldnt cringe more.
Yep. And Joe is much more restrained regarding Gaza as well, because his own party has a lot of anti-genocide activists. Unlike “Let’s all stand with Israel in whatever” Republicans. All in all Joe is preferable, so I'm looking forward to him stealing the election.
Excellent remark. Trump has said that he will force the World to respect US again and show the US force&power. So time is running out for Russia. Hope they get their act together and erase the Ukrainian leadership from the Earth. The Ukrainian will to keep on the War must break before the fall.
Nah, whatever he's able to pull out will not be enough anyway, and Ukraine needs to stew for a while with 2 hours of electricity to calm down. It's impossible to shut down Ukraine’s TV brainwash marathon, they said.
Remember, too, that DJT's purported plans for Project Ukraine--cutting aid to Kiev if Zelensky won't deal or flooding Ukraine w/ weaponry if VVP won't play--were plans reported by the propagandized MSM in the West.
Lt General Kellogg & his fellow plan-author Fleis were purported to have run their plan by DJT--but w/ the degree of deception from which propagandized media outlets in the West operate it's difficult to know what to trust in this.
And then ZH boosts the narrative: Kellogg & Fleis ran their plan by DJT
So?
It was just a strategy to "stovepipe" the *plan* into consciousness in the West, as a means of fig-leafing its authority
The problem with trump’s plan to flood Ukraine with weapons if Putin doesn’t do as he’s told is that the US is going to have a hard time flooding Ukraine with the weapons it needs *and* maintain its own strategic stocks.
Trump is a big believer in asking for two loaves when he only expects to get one, cuz the guy sitting across the table might give an extra quarter loaf just to move the deal along. The US can't flood Ukraine with weapons or we would have.
Trump will call Putin, they will talk and then meet in person. Trump will let parts of the agreement leak for the publicity, of course. The Bandera territories will accept whatever terms are settled on.
I am thinking we are getting ready to bail on the Project Ukraine and leave NATO Europe holding the bag.
You can only run a referendum if you control the territory in which the referendum is to take place....so Nikita Shootagun will have to move a long way westwards.
"When Trump enters it will be gruesome," is clear as mud ! Gruesome for the fascists in Kiev who will have to catch the last few cars out of Kiev ? Gruesome for the Ruskies who will have to face Trump's wrath?
People always hope for the cavalry to come charging over the ridge, or the hero riding a white horse. That's childish and unrealistic. If Trump had a plan to end the SMO in Ukraine, he would have no reason to not lay it out for the world to see. I doubt that could hurt his re-election campaign. After Trump is re-elected, we will see the blowhard meet reality. There is an awful lot of climb-down yet to come. Maybe, juuuust maybe, after Trump is back in office, he will demand honesty out of the lying Zionist-controlled media. Yeah, I can dream too, but at least I know it's a dream.
There is not much reason to hope the West will make a big-assed U-turn. This is our huge job as citizens in a democracy.
I am not sure what or who you are adressing. Trump is a time-bomb. And you never know how or when he will explode. I dont think he is any cavalry at all. Just a megalomaniac whose inner cravings is to show force&power. And now he even think he is commanded by God.
The big concern regarding Trump is that America's flunkies, puppets, slaves, lackeys and vassals may not so blindly obey orders from a gauche orange buffoon.
At the same time, Trump won't be able to leave Ukraine. Just scream "Putin puppet!" and Trump will fold, just as he did from 2016-2020.
"The only question outstanding is what Putin will for settle for- eastern Ukraine? Or with the loss of so many Russian lives, will he want to make that sacrifice count by taking all Ukraine and bring Russia up to the existing NATO boundary making Ukrainian membership of NATO an entirely redundant issue. "
Great points Jullianne! The stupid West must learn the hard way to NOT fuck with the Russians again. Ukraine can't even have a parking lot sized rump state.
"The only question outstanding is what Putin will for settle for- eastern Ukraine?"
The problem is that Russia never WANTED anything of Ukraine. Crimea was seen as a strategic necessity, especially when Azov started bragging about how they were marching down there to "exterminate".
To some extent this changed when the west made it clear that they were at war with Russia in 2022, and 4 of the most ethnically Russian regions were de facto annexed.
Kharkov is also VERY much a Russian city. Or at least it WAS. Ukraine has been "recruiting" ethnic Russians first since day 1 of the SMO. They're literally trying to achieve a genocide as part of the war.
Odessa, almost as much.
However, Russia very much does NOT want any lands where the people does not want THEM.
And while pretty much everywhere east of Dniepr plus Nikolaev and Odessa have strong Russian leaning populations, it's not nearly as obvious as in Donbass.
Russia absolutely does not want to end up fighting a guerilla war for years.
It even less wants to be forced to have to deal with the western parts of Ukraine where the nazis are more in charge.
"will he want to make that sacrifice count"
What's going to be relevant is Russian security first of all. And the more the west "guarantees Ukraine accession to Nato" and other idiocies, the more Russia becomes FORCED into taking more of Ukraine permanently, because anything else would mean the very thing the SMO was started to prevent, western nuclear weapons too close to Russian borders.
"If there ever was a time to bring the scope for western mischief down the line to an end, IT IS NOW. And this is the way to do it."
Yeah, that's about it. Forcing Russia to take this poisoned land is undermining it for decades to come. Leaving it be is effectively same but worse because you have all downsides and no control. I wonder what would Putin do.
Wouldn’t it be nice if Russia opens a “humanitarian corridor” for all surviving banderistas to let them relocate to the EU, finally… They are exactly what jewish community of the EU needs to come to its senses. A cordon sanitair between Russia and the compradors-run EU will be an absolute necessity.
I expect Hungary will take Transnistria/Carpathian mountains. Poland the Azov/Lviv. And a large area west of the Dneiper de-energized & turned into a buffer zone.
Kiev, Odessa, etc will vote to join Russia or be independent.
I cannot imagine that Poland would want millions of fractious and heavily-armed Ukrainians who are not only by no stretch of the imagination Polish, but who have committed genocide against Poles within living memory.
Totally agree. When Russia took Crimea the Donbas begged Russia to take them too. Putin said no. He went with Minsk. His overriding concern is Russian security.
Putin will give not one but several chances to US and Ukraine, but will not accept NATO in Ukraine. If US & NATO cannot accept officially guaranteeing no NATO, war will continue. Keeping Ukrainian army from collapsing will be translated into hundreds of thousands of casualties, attempts at escalation with attacks inside Russia will be met with possible nuclear escalation.
Assassination attempts.
Loss of Kiev, Harkov, Odessa is the end result if the war is continued and escalated. Casualties in millions. Sanctions for next hundred years, no Russian gas, oil for Europe. Iron curtain on Dnieper and Danube.
But that is the end result.
There will be an intermediate offer, and it will probably be refused.
If only Europeans had courage and determination to remove Compradors (agents of foreign interests) from European governments. Ursula, Michelle, Sandu, Kaia Kallas, Baerbock, the Swedish traitors who betrayed Assange and the Norwegian traitors who cover for the destruction of NorthStream… European governments are infested with rapacious rats in service to banking cartel and fascist mega corporations.
Until Putin gets what he wants, a neutral Ukraine, the SMO will continue. Even if negotiations begin, the SMO will continue. And Russia hasn't knocked out the water supply yet. That will drive the city residents into the countryside or as cross-border refugees.
Russia isn't going to negotiate with Zelenski or anyone representing the Kiev regime. They aren't legitimate representatives. The US will have to make any deal, and the negotiations will be imposed upon, not bargained for.
The propaganda war never ends...Unfortunately for the Ukraine, the real war will end when they can no longer put up significant resistance, likely with the next 12 months...
The problem would have a speedy solution if - if - the Americans and their owners (banking cartel and a bunch of billionaires) suddenly experience deprivation, bombings, famine, destruction of hospitals and schools a la Jewish fascist state actions in Palestine. The owners always need more loot, which is the main problem for humanity right now.
With an anatomist's skill, Russia is methodically dissecting its way through the Ukrainian countryside, village by village, deflecting back each fortification & stronghold in situ, systematically separating supply routes from the LOC, as though forensically removing connective tissue from sinew.
NATO seems to be very worried for people who constantly say they have nothing to worry about.
On that note, though, wouldn't the obvious lifeline for forged artillery barrels be from China? Even if a barrel took four hours to make, the sheer scale of Chinese production could supply Russias barrel needs indefinitely, if push came to shove.
At its current tempo, yes. But the point I was saying was that it was silly for NATO to claim they have Russian production cornered when a very nearby alternative with massive capacity exists.
On the subject of arty barrels, it is interesting that the exact same "expert" DOUBLED his estimate of what Russia can produce - from 50 to 100 - in the space of 4 months.
Also those articles that claim Luzin is an artillery barrel expert also unironically use ORYX as a source.
Luzin has a degree in political science and never served in the army or any other state organization. He's got no technical education, no experience and clearly no clue.
He's one of the people Martyanov goes apeshit crazy about. 😁😁😁
Fascinating. Can't speak to military production, but I do know that the art of machining things is rapidly being lost in the collective "West" primarily because it's becoming more and more expensive, both in terms of salaries as well as production costs. It's just always easier to buy something from China (as with most things).
As for the overall war, I really don't know what to think. The past two weeks have been one of the most brutal heat waves I've ever experienced, and Ukrainians are doing it without power (and in some cases running water) and STILL haven't revolted.
I honestly don't know how they continue to suffer so persistently. It's not just their men getting snatched up but corruption, rising prices, devalued currency, unpaid salaries, restrictions on travel, restrictions on TV/radio, internet and power outages, and foreign companies buying up their real estate/ag land. Unbelievable that this continues on a daily basis with virtually no protest. I've never seen such a spineless populace in my life.
The Ukrainian people are terrified out of their wits of speaking publicly of any dissatisfaction for the western backed CIA supported ganster regime which makes protest 'disappear'.
That is how the Ukrainian people are clinging on there with food rotting in fridges. It is a testament to what internal terror can achieve, and the west is funding it, and its own propaganda machine is shoring it up. This is the as yet untold story of western shame that will be exposed once the fighting is over.
It's rarely mentioned, let alone really discussed, is that the SBU routinely tortures, and that this is very well known by the average adult Ukrainian. I'm not saying that *all* the Ukrainian resistance is out of fear of the SBU, because we know that many Ukie draftees show a lot of courage in fighting the Russians. Ukrainian writers like Rostislav Ischenko (now safely in Moscow) say this courage and stoicism in battle is a Slavic thing and is separate from what the soldiers personally want. Anyway, the SBU will be at the center of any peaceful resolution. The monsters will have to be caught and put on trial. Woe unto any Western government that tries to shield them from trial. Minus the SBU, the "404" regions will have somewhat different futures. Last point: Russia doesn't need to control all of the former Ukraine, No... just a depopulated 20 km wide buffer zone all along the border with the NATO states.
The Ukrainian rules-based-order, complete with tortures, extrajudicial assassinations, dictatorship, enormous theft, and violations of all Geneva conventions is a useful laboratory for the owners of the collective west. The USA is owned by a rapacious Jewish mafia of merciless supremacists. They order the music for the hapless European Union to dance the foolish gigue, and they push towards the massive deaths of Slavs in Eastern Europe. The dishonorable MIC and intelligence services have become the mafia’s collaborators and tools.
But that is the old order and it will not survive the Ukrainian collapse. What will emerge is a narrative recall of this time which will not reflect well on these people or their policies (somewhat of an understatement, I suspect), and that will affect how everything unfolds going forward. We can look back in history on many such moments of sea-change.
Think of the ordinary Ukrainians duct-taped to lampposts in Odessa, circa March 2022. Or ordinary Ukrainians in Izyium who, once the AFU reclaimed the city from the RF in the August 2022 counteroffensive found a Fate. Worse. Than. Death
Loyalties in Izyium were estimated to be 50-50 before the SMO began, so it already was a quite divided populace: half Russia-leaning, half not.
Ordinary residents of Izyium of course knew of this division: resentments would have festered over time. The mayhem of warfare gave a pathway for civilian barbarism, person-against-person: score-settling; street corner justice.
When the mayor & other authorities fled westward to safer cities as the RF advanced, the ecosystem for those residents who remained in Izyium for *letting the dogs out*
Collaborators--or hostages? 162 days under *occupation*
"rapidly being lost in the collective "West" primarily because it's becoming more and more expensive"
Here in Sweden, there's been a lack of machinetool operators as far as i've been alive since the mid 70s...
It's not a "cool" enough job for the majority choosing their school subjects(no matter how satisfied those who do end up with those kind of jobs tend to be with them).
So, that's definitely caused a loss of institutional skill/memory.
"their men getting snatched up but corruption, rising prices, devalued currency, unpaid salaries, restrictions on travel, restrictions on TV/radio, internet and power outages, and foreign companies buying up their real estate/ag land." Isn't this a description of everywhere in American Caesar's dominions?
Temps & humidity in Kiev have been the same as where I live in midcoast Maine. Very livable without a/c.
I remember as a child before a/c 100+ F with 109% humidity Misery but we survived without even fans! The lack of refrigeration for food is a bigger issue.
An American stacker in Kiev wrote that they cooked & ate all that food immediately. He still expects to stay with his family & small children thru winter.
The older Americans I know see a/c as something like a sacrament. Temperature gets above 60°F and air conditioning is absolutely necessary for survival.
So often in the past few years, reports of 'Russia is down on category XYZ' such as the above have proved to be a form of self-reporting, perhaps as the originators of the reports realize their own side is lacking the same thing. Artillery barrels wear out. But these mid sized forging machines from the 1960's are hardly a roadblock, on a multi year timescale. RF has done a quite reasonable job with logistics and planning, no reason to expect any different here.
Just my POV but it is important to look at the Ukraine conflict as just one theatre in a more important global geopolitical struggle, being the replacement of what has become a parasitic, corrupt hegemonic system (led by Washington DC), with what aspires to be a fairer multipolar system (ultimately led by Russia and China).
Apart from having the most inept, corrupt, incompetent and frankly stupid leaders at the helm, the other major vulnerability that the western hegemonic axis has is surprisingly simple - DEBT - it's monthly expense dependent on the interest rates set by western central banks (eg the US Fed, Bank of England, etc).
From that vantage point, the attrition strategy in Ukraine that's being used by Russia (military attrition/ can also be understood as an attrition strategy being applied to western economies (economic attrition).
As each day passes, economic attrition forces the hegemonic axis nations to incur more & more debt to sustain/fund their delusional Ukraine strategy. They can only do this by issuing more bonds (in UK, gilts) which of course only increases their debt.
The problem is that the more debt they incur via bond issues/gilt issues, the more vulnerable their already teetering economies are to sudden shocks, that cause bond yields and interest rates to rise.
This insanity might be sustainable if things were going well. Surging economies create massive tax revenues and make debt cheap. The problem of course is that western economies are in a dire, terrible position right now.
Take the UK. It is spending ~$24 billion (all values in $USD) a month more than it makes (*rough calculations below), with declining trade & geopolitical / economic headwinds everywhere.
.
UK Government debt is now $2.7 trillion USD (98% of 'GDP'). Between May 2023 and May 2024, the average monthly interest payment on UK government debt alone was $10.2 billion USD. That's before any gilt (bond) coupons that the UK government had to repay, too.
US debt? A horror show, now $33 trillion and 123% of GDP. Yes the US is a major power, but arguably its ability to produce and trade itself out of the debt trap it finds itself in, is now gone.
These nations can't increase tax revenues, so they are desperately trying to issue more gilts/bonds/IOUs to raise money, while also faking growth statistics, and doing whatever they can to try and contain interest rates.
They are desperate and my sense is that the Kremlin (and Beijing) understands this full well. For example, there is very credible evidence (see Kathleen Tyson's work) that the western nations composing the hegemonic axis are already trying to covertly bail each other out, by discreetly purchasing each other's bonds (presumably because no one else will). This strategy helps them to try and keep a lid on interest rates, and also allows them to present a false picture of their respective balance sheets (as they can account for bond purchases as assets), to prospective bond investors.
The point being that sooner or later, it won't be possible to conceal the catastrophic economic situation. In particular, the Fed will be forced to raise rates again, which will be followed by other nations in the hegemonic axis. Rising rates lead to riding bond yields and rising monthly debt liabilities, that western nations simply cannot pay.
Right now, the Fed should have interest rates at 7% or more, in my view. Even at 4.22% it's very high. However in the current geopolitical climate, even a 1% rise in interest rates (to 5.22%) would create massive pressure on the ability of the US government to service its monthly debt liabilities. And that's before any major shocks that may occur (eg major Chinese sell off of US TBonds).
In conclusion, time seems to be very much on Russia's side. The military attrition being waged by Russia in Ukraine is also being waged on the economies of the western hegemonic axis. As each day passrs, the pressure mounts.
Wiser leaders in the West would understand this reality, bring Ukraine to a rapid close and start the long process of re-engaging with Russia, in a multipolar system.
But in the West, there are no wise leaders. Only very stupid ones, detached from reality. Ukraine has exposed this in stark terms - the imbeciles have fallen into quicksand, an attrition trap, that they cannot escape from.
Apologies for long post.
* Money in (monthly) - ~$120 billion (taxes $1.4 trillion a year (now 40% of GDP, astonishing) = ~ $120 billion a month.)
- Money out (monthly) ~$144 billion (government spending : ~$137.5 billion ($1.65 trillion a year) plus monthly interest payments on government debt - $6.5 billion (May 2024 - $10.2 billion / average May 23 - May 24 is $6.5 billion)
If you think Russia is doing badly in arms and arms production please read
F-16's and F-35's The worst is yet to come
Latest from Will Schryver
https://nitter.poast.org/search?q=%23BigBoyWar
https://libertarianinstitute.org/blog/if-pigs-could-fly-the-f35-continues-to-miss-the-mark/
https://thecradle.co/articles/us-deploys-f-22-squadron-to-jordan-to-ward-off-russian-jets-in-syria
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a41956551/cost-per-hour-to-fly-us-military-aircraft/
Worthless in combat--balloon-slayers--in a #BigBoyWar, per Will about both the F-22s & the F-35s
The F-16's on their way, no one knows how many or when or even where, maybe 20 to begin with, have been 'donated' - I'm sure that does not mean for free
But maintenance, weapons costs, spare parts and so on - who is going to pay?
A whole-of-OTAN endeavor: if the Netherlands pony-up a dozen F-16s, then they will want some get-backs--perhaps [a certain number of promised] F-35s in exchange. Out with the old, in with the new: an even swap ain't a swindle
As far as I know both countries, Dutch and Danish, decided to 'give' their F-16's to Ukraine when they bought some F-35s - they were also allowed to sell some to Argentina
But then the F35's started to not arrive, some are in tech3 refresh limbo parked in a lot in Arizona - I think the Danes had to take some 'trainers' instead of the real thing
So suddenly the F16s look like useful planes in case NATO declares war or whatever - and so....Besides the possibility that their advisors might have told them once again that the F35s are very expensive rubbish best to stick to the F16s
Danes & Dutch catching wise to the scam & getting jumpy. As if the Washington summit wasn't bad enough for morale, OTAN is revealing its squishable inner works: a vacancy inside a void within a vacuum. Think of the caliber of Narrative Control that will spew from the OTAN-compliant media websites if *no* F-16s show up--how they'll strive to take a 'W' nonetheless
Truth only exists on the Sports page
The Danes and the Dutch are adept at walking the Mass Party Line - see the Third Plenum for details - but you know KK will come up with the perfect formula to explain why no show - they're too good to be wasted on the RF we're sending them to...fight AAllah, to Taiwan...to...Gaza....
Imagine the fake fortitude, twisted morals and intellect harbored by the heads of NATO nations after spending 60 seconds with Biden. FFS, even the lying U.S. Media finally admitted Joe hasn't been home for years, likely his entire time as pResident at the White House.
Curious that our foolish Aussie is being cremated in Kiev, likely with Russian gas.
The F16, like the 57 Chevy, a terrific car in it's day, totally outclassed now by better engineering. Still looks great in a parked position, though.
The F35? 30% plus Chinese parts, with the reliability of most U.S. Weapons, made for profit, not efficiency, effectiveness and purpose.
The West, still admiring themselves looking in the Rearview Mirror.
Sounds like a Boeing....
Do you have any info on what caused the F-35 crash a month or so ago on it's maiden voyage from Texas to California?
The last planning I did around F-16 in "contingencies" was early 1985.
The airframes are slightly bent, the engines (GE or P&W) are hard to keep in stock.
US' auditors regularly report on how no USAF or USN tactical aircaft achieve budgeted readiness for years on end.
60 F-16's is news paper trope. How many sorties per day for how many days is what matters.
Who is sending 20 or 30 "built" spare engines?
Thank you for your comment – it does look like all this F-16 chitchat is merely a diversion
I have seen some vague talk of maintenance teams, 12 people per plane?, spare parts, Constanta air base the biggest in Europe etc etc and so on – but nothing precise – who is going to provide and pay for all this? Surely not the Danes Dutch
The RF must have been drooling at the fat pickings to be had
Presumably Argentina made sure it got first choice, and the scrap heap was left for Ukraine
Some suggested that they’ll not show up, diverted to Houthi duty, or Tel Aviv or Taiwan
What’s your opinion?
I can't remember the manning document, probably was classified.
The only advantage is EU pilots got less annual in flight training so the airframes may be lighter used. Bit time and dew (corrosion) causes a lot of problems.
Many specialist required beyond the airframe!
Spares are a big issue, fly a lot and break a lot.
At least 18 of the 42 16s Denmark was sending were for parts. I believe the total was reduced a couple of months ago to 6.
That is probably cuz there is a shortage of Banderan pilots.
I would note that our allies we are trying to buy off, Ukraine and Turkey, are getting F16s rather than 35s. You can't fly a F35 within 20 miles of a thunder storm according to Zero Hedge reporting on a US military announcement. F35s are so reliant on their computers to fly that they are susceptible to Electro-magnetic pulses on their fine computer chips even from thunder storms. I don't think the F35s invisibility cloak works with phase-arrayed radar which Russian high end aircraft carry.
The dark secret is the Chinese chips and switches have the same half-line of PRC quality. But the Bush, Clinton, Obama and Biden families thank you for your service.
Just a quick up and down flight for a 35 costs around $35 thousand in post-flight maintenance.
Thanks for the links Gerrard. Interesting stuff!
Thank you
We are so screwed. A lot of good people are going to die.
As long as Russia doesn't run out of shovels the war in Ukraine is a guaranteed Russian victory.
Shovels and washing machines for the win!
^_^
As long as we don't run out of hedgehogs to roast, since we've ran out of food years ago.
I'm afraid the EU is about to start sanctioning North Korean shovel manufacturers. :(
It could drag this war on for an extra day. :'(
If shovel-rationing comes to the EU, it will be tough to maintain The Garden
That was Borell's job, he now joined the gardener in the sky
KK's garden will be a posy, delicate, indoor
Not wanting to dirty up her hands, KK will gravitate to hydroponics, a soil-free style of plant cultivation that bathes roots in a nutrient-rich water solution.
! Ideal for indoor urban settings & limited spaces !
Considering KK's obvious limitations, tending posies in limited spaces is right-sized to her skills
I'm going to have to leave her in your hands - your empathy is the way you read her delicate yet wolverine features, un russianed by a Siberian childhood, the skill with which she can manage to live indoors after a life in her native yet savage northern woods....
KK says shovels are masculinist and not gender neutral - that the North Koreans need to be de shovelled as well as ...er de shovelled , and decolonised pronto
World watches in awe as the DPRK increases production to 50m shovels a year under the new KK sanctions.
KK in her first day of office has mandated surge production of a new line in feminine shovelles 'Baltique' - for the woman who has that special garden
Don't you worry, there is a solution.
https://sun9-70.userapi.com/impg/jr4X2hJKiPLquJLU9HHPw6MVSd0OeULhtQbCUw/nr7M6LNNLJk.jpg?size=1280x930&quality=95&sign=3ba062548eebf8db08dc6e4df0276a4d&type=album
https://sun9-1.userapi.com/impg/XlAkjAjqgBbXlXBnmSA8FgN1aRRn8vW07nP0rQ/6BmkarxrLto.jpg?size=960x1280&quality=95&sign=05142202d9146e0855a592c1424e65aa&type=album
Russian Odessa!
Also I'm sure Putin's necromancers will eventually branch out to artillery magic and resurrect the barrels.
The people asking the questions of the Australian merc Chippy sounded like infantile half wit morons. Western populations have become so dumbed down it isn't even funny anymore. I have first hand experience being Australian myself.
Afraid so...the loss of both intelligence and an educational system that works is wreaking havoc on most of the American population, which can no longer discern fact from fiction...
A major cause is TV. Children used to read and this forms solid neural pathways. Now they don't read but watch TV and never develop them as they did in the past. The hardware isn't there.
That certainly is harmful...parents need to seriously restrict computer time, and find interesting and appropriate books that kids will enjoy reading--ex. Lloyd Alexander, Heinlein, the Hobbit....and many more
Reddit is a special kinda of stupid. The bigger subs are full of dimwits and bots that all agree with the media narrative.
100%. Very poor education systems produce weak minds.
The lack of any scepticism or critical thinking is sadly to be expected these days. These people believe everything the government and its various mouthpieces tell them.
The price will be heavy, when reality arrives. And it is coming.
Case in point is the Australian YouTuber Perun. He's barely out of uni with no life experience but you can tell by the way he speaks that he thinks he knows it all. All he does is repackage MSM propaganda into PowerPoint presentations and sells it as in-depth geo politics and war reporting. Classic example was when he took all the Ukraine propaganda about destroying a zillion Russian tanks and he boldy claimed that the tank has become obsolete... The fact that his main field of expertise before this was, wait for it, computer games (computer games seems to be the only western competency left) isn't even the worst thing. It's the fact that people actually think he is an authority and knows what he is talking about, unbelievable.... I guess people have always wanted to be sold fairytales so they can sleep well at night...
Experience in 'War Thunder' seems sufficient these days. Of course earlier experience in "Call of Duty" has sufficiently instilled the proper values. Lots of rubbish Youtube channels run by opportunists, so there's that element. But let's remember when this inevitably ends they'll find themselves reconciled to the final narrative of noble loss.
War Thunder, being a Russian game, is quite good at modelling armor clashes. Remember how two Bradleys scored a mission kill against a T-90 by peppering its optics, destroying a track and locking the tower turning mechanism? The Bradley gunner learned that in WT. That said, it doesn't make an expert by itself of course. Some people may stare at white and call it black.
His expertise was in a niche game called Dominions 5. A fantasy strategy game.
Shun him away, mock him.
The tank was disabled by FPV drones already before Bradleys engaged against it, if you watched full video. Considering the tank was already disabled, it's not a mission kill but it had it's propaganda value (very good propaganda shot). It made lots of ignorant western fanboys happy. If I was making decisions for the Bradleys I would've ordered them to quickly get the hell out of there after making quick video, because both Bradleys got damaged/destroyed by Russian FPV drone operators and tanks later according to one of Bradley commanders interview to Washington Post.
but you dont need any game to figure out it by yourself just having brains.
Yeah, but they knew exactly where these modules were because they faced this particular tank virtually. In a combat situation response time is essential, and they wasted none of that by looking for a target. They already knew it on instinctive level. Which made them something of a veteran.
"guess people have always wanted to be sold fairytales so they can sleep well at night..."
Public education being eviscerated works to benefit our masters. Much better that we study the Old Testament in grandma's basement rather than learn esoteric STEM concepts at PS22. Leave the mental heavy lifting to the Indians, Chinese and Russians. Never mind the study of history which gives you a clue as to what happened before granny was born. How many know that the Romans were in Britain longer than the US has been a country? How many know that the Soviets/Russians were the deciding factor for the 1930-40s Germans being defeated in WW2? That some in Germany or Europe generally want to take another whack at the "not to be fucked with" Russians leaves my head spinning. All of this for the benefit of the US arms producers who rely on chaos and lies to sell more weapons?! Depressing if you spend much time thinking about it. Adios FJB..and fuck the deep state ice cream cone you rode in on.
I have always found his stuff (a) seemingly balanced but (b) full of bias. So he tends to take the Russian worst case scenario and compare it with the NATO best case. Taking that into account he does dig up some interesting [facts]. I am not a regular follower but occassionally will waste a hour or so of my life listening to his stuff.
I can't stomach listening to him, I'm sure he does find some interesting things but as you pointed out, he's selling a story and it's always the same. He'll talk the Russians up as a valid and formidable adversary (need a decent villain for any fairytale) before he then disparages anything and everything about them and highlights that West is best and he uses all the BS data that the West puts out and takes it as gospel. He's not doing his followers any favours pulling the wool over their eyes but when the rubber hits the road and reality cannot be ignored all will be forgotten and he'll just move on to the next fairytale. Modern western audiences have the attention span and memory of toddlers.
"Perun"
I've been asking him repeatedly when his predicted "western industry goes brrrrrrr" is going to happen ever since he 2022 stated that was how Russia was going to be completely overwhelmed by the superior western military industry.
Funny how there's still no proper answer.
He was at the right place at the right time. The youtube recommendation algorithm favoured him because his channel was already pretty big, and he has a great confident delivery. He has an education in economics, which he leveraged to make good looking predictions about shell numbers and so on.
Literally a younger Pete Zeihan.
So Perun is basically acting like a con-artist, schilling dangerous propaganda. It would be interesting to find out if he is receiving any special "grants" or "stipends"...
"100%. Very poor education systems produce weak minds."
No, the produce uneducated minds, some of whom become autodidacts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pwv_wx7wap0
Chippy's chipper responses & willingness to dig around in the old mailbag for sundry questions leave me thinking he's an avatar--like an advice columnist in a newspaper, an Agony Aunt, dispensing wisdom & pious adages: "We should be critical in our failures & observant of the enemy's successes."
Chippy is an AI-generated effigy, a totem for armchair warriors: "Every inch is paid for in blood."
Miss Manners is really Judith Martin--and I hope I'm not telling you that Santa Claus does not exist
Exactly the same as Willy OAM & his nauseating “Gdday Legends” hipster style greeting. Beyond that I can’t watch.
I thought I was the only 1. I try to find a couple pro Ukrops just to see what they are pushing, it is just really difficult to find anyone who is not a full on propaganda pusher. I "fired" WillyOAM after a single video LOL
lol just watched his video for introduction. guy is worse than RUSI or RAND propaganda.
I have a good oz mate but he was so immersed in the MSM BS I wrote a 5,000 word summary (yes summary) of the causes and conduct of the SMO/war. I advised him to read it then delete from his hard drive. Dangerous having access to information. But he did thank me for it. However it taught me that few are interested in the actual detail and most succumb to a simple good/evil type narrative. Most people I know are like this. They cannot compute that they may have been systematically misinformed about some of most of the important things in the world. Luckily most are self educated on wine, women and song... And decent food, and sunshine. Don't forget those.
Yes, most people cannot mentally and emotionally cope with having their world-view torn down, it's safer and comforting for them to go on believing what they have been told to believe all their life. Few people ask themselves the question why do they believe what they believe. And yes, bread and circus keeps them occupied, sport and alcohol...
Spot on.
As Mark Twain wrote: "It is easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."
There's a reckonin' a comin'
This. Especially when western population is stuck in emotional cage. They just "want to feel good and morally right" no matter what.
Its not just education its entire western elite mass controlling mechanism that are total propaganda and pure emotionalism. you dont need to think you need to FEEL.
Actually its extremely powerful method of control. You can sell any BS just control their emotions.
My step-son is 30 years old and we never really talked foreign policy but the more he realized how bad the media and politicians lied during the flu lockdowns (he refused to take the shots without any input from me. His Mother did not want me poisoning his mind LOL) Anyway, he mentioned something about Russia that was 1 of the media lies and I told him to remember to judge the media as the liars they are, it took him 6 months of research but he came up with the truth, mostly on his own so I think some people are capable of admitting they were wrong. I do think as we get older it is harder to admit we have been lied to for so long. I had to do that with Iran
It depends on person. and particular family.
I feel sorry for this young man, thoroughly propagandized by Western MSM. Completely brainwashed believing that he was on the right side of history fighting against evil. What's even worse is that his own family are unable to speak out about how the MSM is responsible for propagandizing their son & about this conflict that has nothing to do with democracy or Western values (which are being deliberately destroyed rewritten as wokeism). They themselves are completely ignorant about the nuances and the utter US bellicosity using Ukraine as a proxy war for their own avariciousness & hubristic desire for hegemony .
Here is a strong video clip (https://t.me/legitimniy/17579) about the children of the Ukrainian elite and ordinary Ukrainians who are sent to the trenches with rats. The children of Petro Poroshenko, Alexander Turchinov, Vladimir Groisman live in Britain The offspring of the mayor of Kiev, Klitschko, hang out in Germany without denying themselves anything.
The children of former Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and the son of former NSDC secretary, now Ambassador of Ukraine to Moldova Alexey Danilov, settled in the United States.
The children of former Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and the son of former NSDC secretary, now Ambassador of Ukraine to Moldova Alexey Danilov, settled in the United States.
As a young man I joined the real Foreign Legion when I was 18 and proudly became the youngest Cpl in my regiment the 2eme REI but after a few years serving abroad especially what I saw in Beirut in the eighties eventually woke me up from my naive outlook of the world & geopolitics,. So I do have some empathy for this young man who obviously had more courage than your average joe, prepared to stand up to what he believed rightly or wrongly, what he perceived as his moral imperative, his convictions even if completely misguided by the constant deluge coming from the duplicitous western MSM and the bastards at the top of the gravy train swilling political parasites. He was no Azov Nazi, just an ignorant victim of western propaganda from the Empire of Lies. May he RIP.
Very well put.
The amount of delusion and the insistence upon it being true is its own kind of fascinating study
Most citizens of the USA have been fed from the bottle since birth the absurd notion that American technology, whatever it happens to be cannot be defeated and has a magical quality
It’s the same here in New Zealand, arguably worse.
Whats interesting is the drones are able to carry quite a weight. Why aren't they used to transport injured/wounded (and maybe even be used in assualt operations at night to drop soldiers into enemy territory)?
An excellent observation, I can tell you from experience that this is the very first developing stages. At the front the enemy and us can almost see and hear everything that moves in the air. Unfortunately, there is no knowing if it is friend or foe. So when in doubt we shoot at everything that flies. If we are lucky then we can retrieve our drone from a neighbouring unit if it has been brought down by EW.
"drones are able to carry quite a weight" - that's not the case. They're superduper inefficient. Especially if you compare them to plain and simple helicopters.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/gDYSUk8118Xx
You can never disregard physics... carrying and holding something up in the air takes a ton of energy. Hence the quadcopter carrying the soldier is moving extremely slowly.. aka sitting duck. A grenade would be 1/100 of the soldier's weight, or less... hence small munitions would work. But no, if flying was that cheap and easy, we'll all be in flying cars like decades ago. Plus electric battery holds way less power than combustible fossil fuels. Again, basic physics.
Or just make the drone larger lol. That solves that problem
Electric battery may hold less energy but it also creates more torque and is able to power much more powerful engines.
It's just physics. Larger rotor disk is more efficient.
If they made a helicopter of the same size, it would lift a lot more, fly faster and further.
The big advantage the quadcopter platform has versus a classic helicopter is mechanical simplicity and price.
Yeah, but it's a difference between being completely useless and actually getting somewhere.
That's coming soon, check the latest drone Russians are testing https://www.bitchute.com/video/gDYSUk8118Xx
On a somewhat related note, I think there would be a very real and practical application of a ekranoplan
A small light, twin engine prop driven version with removable, modular cage type of panels to be used for rapid deployment
Frankly, I am surprised that they have not been employed, especially with all the tinkering around and combination of various aftermarket parts and technologies
If the Russian designers aren’t working on a prototype, they really should be
I think it would fill a very particular and necessary niche
I want one for my birthday. ;O)
Simp showed footage of servicemen being uplifted by large drone and moved a few hundred metres though it was a trial. Think it was about a month ago.
"Why aren't they used to transport injured/wounded"
They already are. And even more so to carry supplies to forward positions. Just not in large numbers everywhere.
Media in the West are auguring to maintain narrative dominance in typical fashion, demonstrating for its readerati that Russia will lose the war because its military is running out of shells, men, tanks, artillery barrels, etc.
Quoted in "The Economist" are unnamed Kremlin Whisperers who assert, bitchily, that Russia possesses "sophisticated" rotary forging machines only by the grace of the West because Russia has never produced its own equipment: "they imported from America in the 1930s & looted them from Germany after the war."
Note: *after the war*
The only war unnamed Kremlin Whisperers care about is WWII. For them, Russia's relevance began "in the 1930s" & ended "after the war." The Soviet period is what resonates for The Economist's readerati, so the unnamed Kremlin Whisperers must supply the red meat, the *red meat* in this instance being "high-grade steel," which somehow a resource-rich steel-producing powerhouse like Russia cannot lay its hands on, meaning additionally of course that "ramping up" production of artillery gun barrels "will be difficult."
This style of reportage or narrative management reeks of the recent strategy MediaZona evinced: shifting *how* it counts Russian casualties in order to amplify & inflate the *number* of Russian casualties.
Since Russia cannot "ramp up," it will lose the war.
Whoever lies first wins
You are right - first out of the door with the Lie wins
No Gerrard. That has not worked with this conflict, as I have posted. Indeed, it has failed spectacularly.
For heaven's sake - read what CheetoSpring writes about how the west's reduction of facts to an old false narrative of victory in the WWII and subsequent Soviet decline has promulgated a self serving continued delusion held by the US ruling class of RF weakness and incapacity - far from the reality of RF arms production and war fighting
This contributes to or is the origin of the deluded belief that 'controlling the narrative' is equivalent to winning - hence 'whoever lies wins'
That this is clearly not the case is amply demonstrated by S post, and by various comments on supposedly capable US arms technology as exemplified by the largeley non operative and fabulously expensive to maintain F-16s and F-35s
Read the links I quote - as Mao said---- Investigate!
I said 'this conflict'. You could try reading what I said as opposed to what you would have liked me to have said.
! CheetosSpring was talking about this conflict! Lordy Lordy
Excellent remark Julianne! GW is a master of deflection and projections and sometimes I think he is here to trash all logics and meaningful discussions.
Except that this strategy of talking the other side into defeat, has not worked. if it had, Ukraine would have succeeded in that counteroffensive so predeclared, precisely to induce terrified Russian soldiers to lay down arms and flee. Same with all the sanctions rhetoric proclaiming to the rest of the world that it would be economic suicide not to comply with the US agenda. That went well.
The wave of propaganda about Russian casualties, Russia running out of weapons, blah blah.... is a desperado push to keep Ukrainians fighting- to avoid the ignominy that will be foist upon their western handlers of a disorderly collapse, surrender and flight, (hello, Afghanistan) which is a very real prospect with far more truth on the ground backing it up, than any of the western fantasising.
Everyone in our own corridors of power knows this war has to end before winter sets in or Ukrainians will freeze to death or, far more likely, the bulk of the remaining population will become yet more western heading refugees. The only question outstanding is what Putin will for settle for- eastern Ukraine? Or with the loss of so many Russian lives, will he want to make that sacrifice count by taking all Ukraine and bring Russia up to the existing NATO boundary making Ukrainian membership of NATO an entirely redundant issue. He cannot trust anything the west says. He has to reduce the need to rely on its lying machinations. If there ever was a time to bring the scope for western mischief down the line to an end, IT IS NOW. And this is the way to do it.
The exit from delusion is always slow & "the scope for western mischief" is wide. In a post-Truth era, hopeless shills live in stochastic echo chambers of cacophony, giving appearances more force than reality: when they divide, they subtract.
Before the Peace Telethon Fundraiser in Lucerne, VVP presented to the West his baseline Talking Points for negotiation: complete AFU withdrawal from the 4 LOC regions *before* the negotiations could even begin, etc. And that was just the opening bid.
In a war between a rock & a stream, the rock wins every time.
Will VVP's opening bid still stand come October--?
VVP's bids never stand that long. You don't jump at the opportunity? It's on you then.
I think Putin will leave a buffer zone as the now heavily armed neo-nazis in Western Ukraien are always going to be a problem to control- I think he'll let the surrounding NATO countries deal with them.
Yes. Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland are going to reclaim their lands.
The Ukraine will become a Polish problem. Again. I imagine Romania is going to get all of Moldova as well.
According to what comes out of Kreml about ”realities on the ground” they are satisfied with the four oblasts, no NATO for Ukraine and removal of the Junta in Kiev. I think it is a mistake not to exploit the opportunity they have now to move further west. US is always weakest the electionyear. When Trump enters it will be gruesome.
Mind that these are terms to begin negotiations, not overall Russian terms for ending the conflict. I'm sure there will be a demand for referendums in all of Ukraine after its army is disbanded or something like that.
I dont agree. They have expressed them as goals for the SMO. But I agree with a referendum and disbanded army. Problem is that West will not disband anything in Ukraine. That must be made with force. What I like with Putin, Lavrov&Co is that they do not talk in riddles or with forked tongues.
Well, there's always two ways for Ukraine not to have an army.
I was reading ZH about a possible trump presidency and the implications for the Ukraine War. One commentator there made the following point which I thought was insightful. Trump is (possibly??) now saying that if Ukraine won't talk and agree peace then he will cut off aid. But Z seems to be talking or making noises that they will. However the point was - and missed by most including me - is that Mr T has also said that he will flood the Ukraine with weapons if Russia does not agree to a deal. And his [??] proposed deal is very far from what I think "The Putin" might accept. And that might be the quid pro quo for not getting shot at again - he is on record saying he will escalate to force a peace - presumably on terms preferred by the USA deep state. I just raise this here as not my view but an interesting twist.
This side of the pond nobody missed that part. Trump means pointless escalation and a lot more support for Ukraine, infringed only by Israel’s needs, to try and force more preferential deal. Since they still don't hear Putin and discuss “temporarily losing territory to fast-track Ukraine into NATO” instead of forgetting about it entirely and hoping that NATO returning to its 1997 borders would not appear on the table, it will take a while to reconnect them to reality. That's why Putin wants Joe to stay.
Exactly!
100%
This holy Tramparamp new "messiah" thinks he will order "tiny" Putin and Putin will rush to obey.
Thats why VVP understands what cloud of nonsense new "messiah" is. Thats why old dumb Joe is better.
Why? cause silent and slow idiot (Joe) is much better than agressive uncontrolled and dumb Trump(especially after "divine intervention", i guess trump really thinks he is Apostle now). Holy shit i watched RNC i couldnt cringe more.
Yep. And Joe is much more restrained regarding Gaza as well, because his own party has a lot of anti-genocide activists. Unlike “Let’s all stand with Israel in whatever” Republicans. All in all Joe is preferable, so I'm looking forward to him stealing the election.
"Mr T has also said that he will flood the Ukraine with weapons if Russia does not agree to a deal"
1 . Mr T is zionist. Whatever weapons still available will be needed for Nutty's war with Iran.
2. Flooding the world with dollars will create more inflation, not more weapons.
Where are these weapons coming from?
Apparently there is an excess of snipers in the US....
Maybe the mic will buy them back on the black market 🤷
Excellent remark. Trump has said that he will force the World to respect US again and show the US force&power. So time is running out for Russia. Hope they get their act together and erase the Ukrainian leadership from the Earth. The Ukrainian will to keep on the War must break before the fall.
Nah, whatever he's able to pull out will not be enough anyway, and Ukraine needs to stew for a while with 2 hours of electricity to calm down. It's impossible to shut down Ukraine’s TV brainwash marathon, they said.
Remember, too, that DJT's purported plans for Project Ukraine--cutting aid to Kiev if Zelensky won't deal or flooding Ukraine w/ weaponry if VVP won't play--were plans reported by the propagandized MSM in the West.
Lt General Kellogg & his fellow plan-author Fleis were purported to have run their plan by DJT--but w/ the degree of deception from which propagandized media outlets in the West operate it's difficult to know what to trust in this.
And then ZH boosts the narrative: Kellogg & Fleis ran their plan by DJT
So?
It was just a strategy to "stovepipe" the *plan* into consciousness in the West, as a means of fig-leafing its authority
Narrative Management 101
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. Note how, to give but one example, he twice cucked out of leaving Syria.
Note that I wrote not a word of praise for Halfwit Joe.
The problem with trump’s plan to flood Ukraine with weapons if Putin doesn’t do as he’s told is that the US is going to have a hard time flooding Ukraine with the weapons it needs *and* maintain its own strategic stocks.
Trump is a big believer in asking for two loaves when he only expects to get one, cuz the guy sitting across the table might give an extra quarter loaf just to move the deal along. The US can't flood Ukraine with weapons or we would have.
Trump will call Putin, they will talk and then meet in person. Trump will let parts of the agreement leak for the publicity, of course. The Bandera territories will accept whatever terms are settled on.
I am thinking we are getting ready to bail on the Project Ukraine and leave NATO Europe holding the bag.
Where would these weapons come from? Aren't they in kinda short supply...or will they repurpose BBQs for this tasking?
You can only run a referendum if you control the territory in which the referendum is to take place....so Nikita Shootagun will have to move a long way westwards.
"When Trump enters it will be gruesome," is clear as mud ! Gruesome for the fascists in Kiev who will have to catch the last few cars out of Kiev ? Gruesome for the Ruskies who will have to face Trump's wrath?
People always hope for the cavalry to come charging over the ridge, or the hero riding a white horse. That's childish and unrealistic. If Trump had a plan to end the SMO in Ukraine, he would have no reason to not lay it out for the world to see. I doubt that could hurt his re-election campaign. After Trump is re-elected, we will see the blowhard meet reality. There is an awful lot of climb-down yet to come. Maybe, juuuust maybe, after Trump is back in office, he will demand honesty out of the lying Zionist-controlled media. Yeah, I can dream too, but at least I know it's a dream.
There is not much reason to hope the West will make a big-assed U-turn. This is our huge job as citizens in a democracy.
I am not sure what or who you are adressing. Trump is a time-bomb. And you never know how or when he will explode. I dont think he is any cavalry at all. Just a megalomaniac whose inner cravings is to show force&power. And now he even think he is commanded by God.
The big concern regarding Trump is that America's flunkies, puppets, slaves, lackeys and vassals may not so blindly obey orders from a gauche orange buffoon.
At the same time, Trump won't be able to leave Ukraine. Just scream "Putin puppet!" and Trump will fold, just as he did from 2016-2020.
Over and over.
"The only question outstanding is what Putin will for settle for- eastern Ukraine? Or with the loss of so many Russian lives, will he want to make that sacrifice count by taking all Ukraine and bring Russia up to the existing NATO boundary making Ukrainian membership of NATO an entirely redundant issue. "
Great points Jullianne! The stupid West must learn the hard way to NOT fuck with the Russians again. Ukraine can't even have a parking lot sized rump state.
I so agree.
"The only question outstanding is what Putin will for settle for- eastern Ukraine?"
The problem is that Russia never WANTED anything of Ukraine. Crimea was seen as a strategic necessity, especially when Azov started bragging about how they were marching down there to "exterminate".
To some extent this changed when the west made it clear that they were at war with Russia in 2022, and 4 of the most ethnically Russian regions were de facto annexed.
Kharkov is also VERY much a Russian city. Or at least it WAS. Ukraine has been "recruiting" ethnic Russians first since day 1 of the SMO. They're literally trying to achieve a genocide as part of the war.
Odessa, almost as much.
However, Russia very much does NOT want any lands where the people does not want THEM.
And while pretty much everywhere east of Dniepr plus Nikolaev and Odessa have strong Russian leaning populations, it's not nearly as obvious as in Donbass.
Russia absolutely does not want to end up fighting a guerilla war for years.
It even less wants to be forced to have to deal with the western parts of Ukraine where the nazis are more in charge.
"will he want to make that sacrifice count"
What's going to be relevant is Russian security first of all. And the more the west "guarantees Ukraine accession to Nato" and other idiocies, the more Russia becomes FORCED into taking more of Ukraine permanently, because anything else would mean the very thing the SMO was started to prevent, western nuclear weapons too close to Russian borders.
"If there ever was a time to bring the scope for western mischief down the line to an end, IT IS NOW. And this is the way to do it."
Agreed.
Yeah, that's about it. Forcing Russia to take this poisoned land is undermining it for decades to come. Leaving it be is effectively same but worse because you have all downsides and no control. I wonder what would Putin do.
Wouldn’t it be nice if Russia opens a “humanitarian corridor” for all surviving banderistas to let them relocate to the EU, finally… They are exactly what jewish community of the EU needs to come to its senses. A cordon sanitair between Russia and the compradors-run EU will be an absolute necessity.
I expect Hungary will take Transnistria/Carpathian mountains. Poland the Azov/Lviv. And a large area west of the Dneiper de-energized & turned into a buffer zone.
Kiev, Odessa, etc will vote to join Russia or be independent.
I cannot imagine that Poland would want millions of fractious and heavily-armed Ukrainians who are not only by no stretch of the imagination Polish, but who have committed genocide against Poles within living memory.
Yet Poland is currently helping them in the war.
I think that region was part of Poland in the past.
Thar region was part of Poland before 1939, and the Ukrainian nationalist folk enemy at the time was Poland, not Russia.
Totally agree. When Russia took Crimea the Donbas begged Russia to take them too. Putin said no. He went with Minsk. His overriding concern is Russian security.
Difficult but not impossible.
Putin will give not one but several chances to US and Ukraine, but will not accept NATO in Ukraine. If US & NATO cannot accept officially guaranteeing no NATO, war will continue. Keeping Ukrainian army from collapsing will be translated into hundreds of thousands of casualties, attempts at escalation with attacks inside Russia will be met with possible nuclear escalation.
Assassination attempts.
Loss of Kiev, Harkov, Odessa is the end result if the war is continued and escalated. Casualties in millions. Sanctions for next hundred years, no Russian gas, oil for Europe. Iron curtain on Dnieper and Danube.
But that is the end result.
There will be an intermediate offer, and it will probably be refused.
If only Europeans had courage and determination to remove Compradors (agents of foreign interests) from European governments. Ursula, Michelle, Sandu, Kaia Kallas, Baerbock, the Swedish traitors who betrayed Assange and the Norwegian traitors who cover for the destruction of NorthStream… European governments are infested with rapacious rats in service to banking cartel and fascist mega corporations.
Until Putin gets what he wants, a neutral Ukraine, the SMO will continue. Even if negotiations begin, the SMO will continue. And Russia hasn't knocked out the water supply yet. That will drive the city residents into the countryside or as cross-border refugees.
Russia isn't going to negotiate with Zelenski or anyone representing the Kiev regime. They aren't legitimate representatives. The US will have to make any deal, and the negotiations will be imposed upon, not bargained for.
The propaganda war never ends...Unfortunately for the Ukraine, the real war will end when they can no longer put up significant resistance, likely with the next 12 months...
12 months? That's optimistic. That's another Russian winter to survive.
I was being cautious..but yes, a cold winter could speed things up
The problem would have a speedy solution if - if - the Americans and their owners (banking cartel and a bunch of billionaires) suddenly experience deprivation, bombings, famine, destruction of hospitals and schools a la Jewish fascist state actions in Palestine. The owners always need more loot, which is the main problem for humanity right now.
Great rundown. The CIA FOIA Electronic Reading Room is one of the most fun locations on the interwebs.
With an anatomist's skill, Russia is methodically dissecting its way through the Ukrainian countryside, village by village, deflecting back each fortification & stronghold in situ, systematically separating supply routes from the LOC, as though forensically removing connective tissue from sinew.
Russia is deboning Ukraine
Looks like you have taken control of the narrative.....
Do tell us what’s really happening?
He has
NATO seems to be very worried for people who constantly say they have nothing to worry about.
On that note, though, wouldn't the obvious lifeline for forged artillery barrels be from China? Even if a barrel took four hours to make, the sheer scale of Chinese production could supply Russias barrel needs indefinitely, if push came to shove.
OTAN = biggest Concern Troll on the planet
Or Best Korea which produces the same types.
The point of the article was that Russia doesn't NEED any help making barrels.
That if anything, Russia most likely has a vast OVERcapacity for making barrels.
At its current tempo, yes. But the point I was saying was that it was silly for NATO to claim they have Russian production cornered when a very nearby alternative with massive capacity exists.
On the subject of arty barrels, it is interesting that the exact same "expert" DOUBLED his estimate of what Russia can produce - from 50 to 100 - in the space of 4 months.
Also those articles that claim Luzin is an artillery barrel expert also unironically use ORYX as a source.
Luzin has a degree in political science and never served in the army or any other state organization. He's got no technical education, no experience and clearly no clue.
He's one of the people Martyanov goes apeshit crazy about. 😁😁😁
Well, Russia used washing machines to make Khinzhals.
Time for Russia to use cooking pots to make artillery barrels.
*edited for spelling
Fascinating. Can't speak to military production, but I do know that the art of machining things is rapidly being lost in the collective "West" primarily because it's becoming more and more expensive, both in terms of salaries as well as production costs. It's just always easier to buy something from China (as with most things).
As for the overall war, I really don't know what to think. The past two weeks have been one of the most brutal heat waves I've ever experienced, and Ukrainians are doing it without power (and in some cases running water) and STILL haven't revolted.
I honestly don't know how they continue to suffer so persistently. It's not just their men getting snatched up but corruption, rising prices, devalued currency, unpaid salaries, restrictions on travel, restrictions on TV/radio, internet and power outages, and foreign companies buying up their real estate/ag land. Unbelievable that this continues on a daily basis with virtually no protest. I've never seen such a spineless populace in my life.
The Ukrainian people are terrified out of their wits of speaking publicly of any dissatisfaction for the western backed CIA supported ganster regime which makes protest 'disappear'.
That is how the Ukrainian people are clinging on there with food rotting in fridges. It is a testament to what internal terror can achieve, and the west is funding it, and its own propaganda machine is shoring it up. This is the as yet untold story of western shame that will be exposed once the fighting is over.
Damn. That's really evil.
It's rarely mentioned, let alone really discussed, is that the SBU routinely tortures, and that this is very well known by the average adult Ukrainian. I'm not saying that *all* the Ukrainian resistance is out of fear of the SBU, because we know that many Ukie draftees show a lot of courage in fighting the Russians. Ukrainian writers like Rostislav Ischenko (now safely in Moscow) say this courage and stoicism in battle is a Slavic thing and is separate from what the soldiers personally want. Anyway, the SBU will be at the center of any peaceful resolution. The monsters will have to be caught and put on trial. Woe unto any Western government that tries to shield them from trial. Minus the SBU, the "404" regions will have somewhat different futures. Last point: Russia doesn't need to control all of the former Ukraine, No... just a depopulated 20 km wide buffer zone all along the border with the NATO states.
Nobody in Washington, Brussels or Kiev cares, any more than a slaveowner is concerned for the self-esteem of his slaves.
The Ukrainian rules-based-order, complete with tortures, extrajudicial assassinations, dictatorship, enormous theft, and violations of all Geneva conventions is a useful laboratory for the owners of the collective west. The USA is owned by a rapacious Jewish mafia of merciless supremacists. They order the music for the hapless European Union to dance the foolish gigue, and they push towards the massive deaths of Slavs in Eastern Europe. The dishonorable MIC and intelligence services have become the mafia’s collaborators and tools.
But they are culminating, Anna.
But that is the old order and it will not survive the Ukrainian collapse. What will emerge is a narrative recall of this time which will not reflect well on these people or their policies (somewhat of an understatement, I suspect), and that will affect how everything unfolds going forward. We can look back in history on many such moments of sea-change.
Assumes a lot.
Think of the ordinary Ukrainians duct-taped to lampposts in Odessa, circa March 2022. Or ordinary Ukrainians in Izyium who, once the AFU reclaimed the city from the RF in the August 2022 counteroffensive found a Fate. Worse. Than. Death
Loyalties in Izyium were estimated to be 50-50 before the SMO began, so it already was a quite divided populace: half Russia-leaning, half not.
Ordinary residents of Izyium of course knew of this division: resentments would have festered over time. The mayhem of warfare gave a pathway for civilian barbarism, person-against-person: score-settling; street corner justice.
When the mayor & other authorities fled westward to safer cities as the RF advanced, the ecosystem for those residents who remained in Izyium for *letting the dogs out*
Collaborators--or hostages? 162 days under *occupation*
Detailed in The New Yorker mag, March 2023
Hi Sam, I take it you have never spent time in New Zealand? When push comes to shove, 99% of people are as spineless as jellyfish.
Steady on - they licked Covid by going in first going in hard - remember?
Yeah, no-one could accuse Adern of being toothless.
nor toothsome neither
I think by the 10th booster shot they should have it pretty well sorted
"rapidly being lost in the collective "West" primarily because it's becoming more and more expensive"
Here in Sweden, there's been a lack of machinetool operators as far as i've been alive since the mid 70s...
It's not a "cool" enough job for the majority choosing their school subjects(no matter how satisfied those who do end up with those kind of jobs tend to be with them).
So, that's definitely caused a loss of institutional skill/memory.
"their men getting snatched up but corruption, rising prices, devalued currency, unpaid salaries, restrictions on travel, restrictions on TV/radio, internet and power outages, and foreign companies buying up their real estate/ag land." Isn't this a description of everywhere in American Caesar's dominions?
Temps & humidity in Kiev have been the same as where I live in midcoast Maine. Very livable without a/c.
I remember as a child before a/c 100+ F with 109% humidity Misery but we survived without even fans! The lack of refrigeration for food is a bigger issue.
An American stacker in Kiev wrote that they cooked & ate all that food immediately. He still expects to stay with his family & small children thru winter.
I never needed a/c during the years I lived in Kiev. Relatively few people had it.
Tbe weather there seems to track very closely to where I currently live. No a/c here for me, either.
I think the younger generations in the US, who never lived without a/c, have a hard time with something less than ideal comfort.
The older Americans I know see a/c as something like a sacrament. Temperature gets above 60°F and air conditioning is absolutely necessary for survival.
Cats don't mind the heat.
So often in the past few years, reports of 'Russia is down on category XYZ' such as the above have proved to be a form of self-reporting, perhaps as the originators of the reports realize their own side is lacking the same thing. Artillery barrels wear out. But these mid sized forging machines from the 1960's are hardly a roadblock, on a multi year timescale. RF has done a quite reasonable job with logistics and planning, no reason to expect any different here.
Do they have gun ownership rights? Do they have guns, explosives and drones?
Just asking?
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/130557
It was only a matter of time.
Good write up, Simplicius.
Just my POV but it is important to look at the Ukraine conflict as just one theatre in a more important global geopolitical struggle, being the replacement of what has become a parasitic, corrupt hegemonic system (led by Washington DC), with what aspires to be a fairer multipolar system (ultimately led by Russia and China).
Apart from having the most inept, corrupt, incompetent and frankly stupid leaders at the helm, the other major vulnerability that the western hegemonic axis has is surprisingly simple - DEBT - it's monthly expense dependent on the interest rates set by western central banks (eg the US Fed, Bank of England, etc).
From that vantage point, the attrition strategy in Ukraine that's being used by Russia (military attrition/ can also be understood as an attrition strategy being applied to western economies (economic attrition).
As each day passes, economic attrition forces the hegemonic axis nations to incur more & more debt to sustain/fund their delusional Ukraine strategy. They can only do this by issuing more bonds (in UK, gilts) which of course only increases their debt.
The problem is that the more debt they incur via bond issues/gilt issues, the more vulnerable their already teetering economies are to sudden shocks, that cause bond yields and interest rates to rise.
This insanity might be sustainable if things were going well. Surging economies create massive tax revenues and make debt cheap. The problem of course is that western economies are in a dire, terrible position right now.
Take the UK. It is spending ~$24 billion (all values in $USD) a month more than it makes (*rough calculations below), with declining trade & geopolitical / economic headwinds everywhere.
.
UK Government debt is now $2.7 trillion USD (98% of 'GDP'). Between May 2023 and May 2024, the average monthly interest payment on UK government debt alone was $10.2 billion USD. That's before any gilt (bond) coupons that the UK government had to repay, too.
US debt? A horror show, now $33 trillion and 123% of GDP. Yes the US is a major power, but arguably its ability to produce and trade itself out of the debt trap it finds itself in, is now gone.
These nations can't increase tax revenues, so they are desperately trying to issue more gilts/bonds/IOUs to raise money, while also faking growth statistics, and doing whatever they can to try and contain interest rates.
They are desperate and my sense is that the Kremlin (and Beijing) understands this full well. For example, there is very credible evidence (see Kathleen Tyson's work) that the western nations composing the hegemonic axis are already trying to covertly bail each other out, by discreetly purchasing each other's bonds (presumably because no one else will). This strategy helps them to try and keep a lid on interest rates, and also allows them to present a false picture of their respective balance sheets (as they can account for bond purchases as assets), to prospective bond investors.
The point being that sooner or later, it won't be possible to conceal the catastrophic economic situation. In particular, the Fed will be forced to raise rates again, which will be followed by other nations in the hegemonic axis. Rising rates lead to riding bond yields and rising monthly debt liabilities, that western nations simply cannot pay.
Right now, the Fed should have interest rates at 7% or more, in my view. Even at 4.22% it's very high. However in the current geopolitical climate, even a 1% rise in interest rates (to 5.22%) would create massive pressure on the ability of the US government to service its monthly debt liabilities. And that's before any major shocks that may occur (eg major Chinese sell off of US TBonds).
In conclusion, time seems to be very much on Russia's side. The military attrition being waged by Russia in Ukraine is also being waged on the economies of the western hegemonic axis. As each day passrs, the pressure mounts.
Wiser leaders in the West would understand this reality, bring Ukraine to a rapid close and start the long process of re-engaging with Russia, in a multipolar system.
But in the West, there are no wise leaders. Only very stupid ones, detached from reality. Ukraine has exposed this in stark terms - the imbeciles have fallen into quicksand, an attrition trap, that they cannot escape from.
Apologies for long post.
* Money in (monthly) - ~$120 billion (taxes $1.4 trillion a year (now 40% of GDP, astonishing) = ~ $120 billion a month.)
- Money out (monthly) ~$144 billion (government spending : ~$137.5 billion ($1.65 trillion a year) plus monthly interest payments on government debt - $6.5 billion (May 2024 - $10.2 billion / average May 23 - May 24 is $6.5 billion)
Result = MINUS $24 billion - a month.
Thanks for the excellent insights and analysis.
Well put but 'Western leaders' = American Caesar.
Interesting perspective.