Let’s begin with the most talked about news, which is that the Russian commander of the 58th Army was removed for allegedly questioning his higher-ups, i.e. Shoigu and Gerasimov. General Ivan Popov was replaced by Lt. General Lyamin, who was his previous deputy in the 58th. A little background: Popov was a relatively young, fast-rising general who only became the commander of the 58th army relatively recently. The 58th is the flagship combined arms army of the Southern Military District, and is not only the storied army group which single handedly trashed Georgia in 2008, but has also recently been the group handling the entire Zaporozhye front, heroically repelling the AFU’s largest offensive of the war. Also, it should be noted that Gerasimov himself once commanded the 58th.
With knowing anyone of the backstop of the command structure of the 58th or detailed recent combat history I stil feel confident making the following statement. The fact that half drunk civilians in Canada (that's me) are discussing thus situation on the comment section of substack (no disrespectful to simplicius I highly respect your analysis and im looking forward to your next post) is definitely not a good situation for the Russian military. Seriously the Russian MOD and General staff needs to kept this kind of shit in house and off social media ffs.
"Over-advertised junk" is what that soldier in the last video said. Applies to American ego too. I'm sick of their politics and the world getting infected. No mask stops the smell of neocon bullshit.
Most media seems to have missed French General Michel Yakovleff's revealing ranting about NATO and Ukraine on France24 earlier this week. He was in a "debate" with other NATO loyalists and a minor politician. I posted the transcript at https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/ukraine-will-be-a-problem-member
Regards "ungodly levels of destruction for the AFU", there was another sign of the Media facing truth. It happened on the Wall Street Journal. Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt (Ret.) first lied that Bakhmut has flipped between Ukraine and Russia numerous times, I think to increase the possibility that Ukraine could split Russia's land bridge to Crimea. But that was carrot propaganda before the stick of Russian defence which, with props on table, he showed to be formidable, almost insurmountable. I've timed the video for that moment - https://youtu.be/zMZ58anSFF4?t=287
Vilnius seems to have become the most over-hyped event of the year.
Is the USA finally looking for an exit?
They get Sweden and Finland, a base in Poland, add something to the Baltic States, and lie that they have made the world safer against future Russian aggression.
They could use a failed Ukraine as a marketing tool against 'evil' Russia whilst further lying that they had supported Ukraine as best as they could but 'brave' Zelensky, no matter how hard he tried, failed. They'd be happy to do that after their ego couldn't handle his criticism.
Zelensky escapes assassination by heading to his dacha in Italy or wherever.
As Russia keeps learning and adapting military strategy, so bankers and corporates will do the same for profit. If the West can force a Korean-styled line between Russia and Ukraine, their weapons dealers will make another fortune. And whatever is left of Ukraine will be on sale at bargain prices.
Russia will do whatever it can to get territory so that it can finance its defence. Then it will turn the occupied coast into one of the best parts of Russia, telling the world that Russia is cool.
This is just another thought as I constantly grapple with the insanity of this war and its body parts scattered by landmines in the forests and mud of what was once a beautiful country with Slavic people who, for the most part, got along.
Ukraine is evidence of the power of misinformation, and how we humans, at least most of us, are easily manipulated. If it could happen to Ukraine, it could happen to us.
Now to take a big breath and watch those "grisly" videos because we must remind ourselves of the horror of war.
I think that firing generals is the norm in any real war. That does not apply to the colonial policing actions that the US has engaged in over the past half century or so. After all, during 1944-5 all the British, Canadian and US generals seemed to be in perpetual conflict with each other. Montgomery fired Dempsey, for example. Even in Burma there was an almost successful attempt to get Slim fired in 1945, possibly the most effective British commander of the entire war. As ever, there are two (or even more) sides to these stories.
Vilnius will go down as a milestone on the path of the US empire’s decline. Not quite analogous to the 1956 Suez debacle but it is getting close. Give it a few years and the US will be scaling back its overseas bases. It is coming. The only question is how long it will be until they face reality and beat the Retreat from Europe and the Retreat from Asia; plus how much damage they create in the process.
It's interesting and a little concerning to hear about all of these leadership changes and concerns at the high level in the MoD. I wonder how the US Military leadership would have looked if the internet and social media were around in 1942. My guess is Patton wouldn't have commanded an army by the end of the Italy campaign with social media leaks.
I'll leave an optimistic option that maybe this relieved general will be moved to one of the newly formed armies for an upcoming Russian offensive.
As for growing pains, logistics and daily routine are huge issues for new armies. My uncle used to be a pilot in the Navy and said there is nothing more complicated or hard than managing the logistics of a carrier for a deployment. He said it's something that might take the Chinese decades to perfect if they actually want to project power outside the south china sea. Russia seems to be getting a ton of experience in this right now.
Looks to me like we're starting to see more direct fire kills - 30mm autocannons and tank shots taking out AFU light armour. Not sure what that means, could just be sample bias in what turns up as video. Could also mean Ukraine has pushed more into the defensive lines and is engaging armoured forces directly rather than being held up among the light infantry screening forces.
I can understand why Putin would take a practical approach to the Wagner issue but Russian pilots were killed and surely this can't be swept under the rug. Do Russians see Prigozhin as responsible for the deaths? How will it play with the public if no one is punished for it?
A good thing to remember though, is that in Russian structures "retirements/etc" have a far more flexible errr... Connotation. The MoD and the Army is as an opaque structure as it can be, so there really is no telling what's going on. Popov might return shortly, that's what Im saying.
But yes. The NATO humiliation was glorious. There's no more big things for Pukeraine to look forward to, as even the useless F-16s become a distant prospect.
Counteroink had now failed, and with only about 2,5 months of possible activity left before soil becomes unusable for large armor spearheads, its evident that no goals announced by the puke command are reachable.
Consider this - the puke capability now has diminished by about 30 000 combat troops, and in tech, by an estimated 30%. New armor shipments will not replenish these losses presumably until late August, in which time they'll probably suffer another 30% loss.
Ultimately this means that ukes will not restore combat readiness to the level of the FIRST days of the counteroink... Probably never by this point, which makes all further plans completely obsolete.
Many would call that cooked. I, having closely watched the war since the first hour of it and making my own analysis, estimate that with about 300k KIA khohols at the current point, thibnk that it would take around 150k more till Usrain suffers full military breakdown. If the current tempo of force attrition continues, 15-18k KIA a month, it would take further 8-10 months. If it slows down some - then a year.
However, surprises might be had and with a dire situation on the tech and munitions front, ukes can break maybe in half a year.
Are there still young Russians that think the West is great? They need to come here and see what a shithole ALL Western countries have become in the last 20 years.
Still not a good look for General officers pulling this kind of Roman civil war stunt. They all should STFU and get on with it. This destroys morale on Russian side and is used by AFU to raise morale on theirs.
1) Ukraine's naval mines didn't just affect Turkey but were also found in Romanian waters.
2) There are exactly 2 ships left in Odessa which were cleared by Russia for the grain deal, 1 that is loaded and about to depart, and a second that's still empty. So far, Russia has not let any NEW ships proceed north from Turkey, so Russia is ready to end the "deal" at a moment's notice, if its demands aren't met.
3) Unexploded cluster mines don't just affect kids who pick them up, thinking they're toys. They also explode when adults walk on them, sometimes decades later, or engage in agricultural work. Just ask Cambodia, which is STILL LOSING PEOPLE 50 YEARS LATER after being illegally bombed by the United States.
Sheesh, you're doing it again! That man didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought a teenage prostitute. Or he bought a teenage girl who was sold to him for sex. Trafficking is a bullshit word they made up. The real word is "pimping." There are no pimps anymore. They all turned into "traffickers." The man who sold her is a pimp. Is he a trafficker? We don't know. He's only a trafficker if he held her prisoner and forced her to work as a prostitute.
Actually it's worse than that. Suppose I buy a prostitute like lots of men do. I haven't done this in decades, but probably most men do at some point. Suppose she happens to be underage whether I'm aware of that or not. Suppose I have sex with this underage prostitute. I've now "trafficked" her by the mere act of having sex with her. Idiotic or what? Johns are johns. They're called "guys who buy prostitutes." Johns are not "traffickers." C'mon, that's insane.
Sex trafficking is all about sex slavery. Girls and women are taken by pimps, kept prisoner, forced to work as prostitutes, and not allowed to leave on penalty of being beaten or killed. If you're being held prisoner and forced to work as a prostitute with no way to leave, you're being trafficked. If none of those things are true, you aren't being "trafficked" for God's sake. A lot of feminists now use the word "trafficking" to describe all prostitution. All prostitutes are somehow or other being "trafficked." A lot of prostitutes work for themselves. I guess they're being trafficked too? In that case they must be "trafficking" themselves? See how insane this gets.
This guy didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought an underage prostitute. The crime ought to be "Procuring a Minor for Prostitution." And they can put him in prison for all I care! That's not my beef here. I'm sick of this sensationalistic, moral panic language.
Please do not contribute to this sex hysteria the feminists and sex fascists are poisoning our society with.
This entire situation - including Prigozhin nonsense - looks like nothing more than the usual weeding out of officers in the first stages of any real conflict. The general theme is promotion of warriors over bean counters, but there are also the insubordinate and/or out of control vs. the professional.
Not the least bit clear to me there is a problem. Nor are bean counter types not useful as well - the question is the roles they are in.
Re: overall military situation in Ukraine
The video selection seems to show that the Russian military is basically sniping armored vehicles and groups of soldiers. This implies near air supremacy at the front since it looks like a number of the shots were taken from a plane. There were also a couple of apparent drone dropped grenades/small bombs.
Is the mass artillery bombardments of Artemovsk, 4 months ago, over? Or simply a function of the videos shown? Or a function of Ukraine basically attacking in bits and pieces?
Overall, an excellent writeup as has been your consistent pattern.
With knowing anyone of the backstop of the command structure of the 58th or detailed recent combat history I stil feel confident making the following statement. The fact that half drunk civilians in Canada (that's me) are discussing thus situation on the comment section of substack (no disrespectful to simplicius I highly respect your analysis and im looking forward to your next post) is definitely not a good situation for the Russian military. Seriously the Russian MOD and General staff needs to kept this kind of shit in house and off social media ffs.
"Over-advertised junk" is what that soldier in the last video said. Applies to American ego too. I'm sick of their politics and the world getting infected. No mask stops the smell of neocon bullshit.
Most media seems to have missed French General Michel Yakovleff's revealing ranting about NATO and Ukraine on France24 earlier this week. He was in a "debate" with other NATO loyalists and a minor politician. I posted the transcript at https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/ukraine-will-be-a-problem-member
Regards "ungodly levels of destruction for the AFU", there was another sign of the Media facing truth. It happened on the Wall Street Journal. Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt (Ret.) first lied that Bakhmut has flipped between Ukraine and Russia numerous times, I think to increase the possibility that Ukraine could split Russia's land bridge to Crimea. But that was carrot propaganda before the stick of Russian defence which, with props on table, he showed to be formidable, almost insurmountable. I've timed the video for that moment - https://youtu.be/zMZ58anSFF4?t=287
Vilnius seems to have become the most over-hyped event of the year.
Is the USA finally looking for an exit?
They get Sweden and Finland, a base in Poland, add something to the Baltic States, and lie that they have made the world safer against future Russian aggression.
They could use a failed Ukraine as a marketing tool against 'evil' Russia whilst further lying that they had supported Ukraine as best as they could but 'brave' Zelensky, no matter how hard he tried, failed. They'd be happy to do that after their ego couldn't handle his criticism.
Zelensky escapes assassination by heading to his dacha in Italy or wherever.
As Russia keeps learning and adapting military strategy, so bankers and corporates will do the same for profit. If the West can force a Korean-styled line between Russia and Ukraine, their weapons dealers will make another fortune. And whatever is left of Ukraine will be on sale at bargain prices.
Russia will do whatever it can to get territory so that it can finance its defence. Then it will turn the occupied coast into one of the best parts of Russia, telling the world that Russia is cool.
This is just another thought as I constantly grapple with the insanity of this war and its body parts scattered by landmines in the forests and mud of what was once a beautiful country with Slavic people who, for the most part, got along.
Ukraine is evidence of the power of misinformation, and how we humans, at least most of us, are easily manipulated. If it could happen to Ukraine, it could happen to us.
Now to take a big breath and watch those "grisly" videos because we must remind ourselves of the horror of war.
Great update.
I think that firing generals is the norm in any real war. That does not apply to the colonial policing actions that the US has engaged in over the past half century or so. After all, during 1944-5 all the British, Canadian and US generals seemed to be in perpetual conflict with each other. Montgomery fired Dempsey, for example. Even in Burma there was an almost successful attempt to get Slim fired in 1945, possibly the most effective British commander of the entire war. As ever, there are two (or even more) sides to these stories.
Vilnius will go down as a milestone on the path of the US empire’s decline. Not quite analogous to the 1956 Suez debacle but it is getting close. Give it a few years and the US will be scaling back its overseas bases. It is coming. The only question is how long it will be until they face reality and beat the Retreat from Europe and the Retreat from Asia; plus how much damage they create in the process.
It's interesting and a little concerning to hear about all of these leadership changes and concerns at the high level in the MoD. I wonder how the US Military leadership would have looked if the internet and social media were around in 1942. My guess is Patton wouldn't have commanded an army by the end of the Italy campaign with social media leaks.
I'll leave an optimistic option that maybe this relieved general will be moved to one of the newly formed armies for an upcoming Russian offensive.
As for growing pains, logistics and daily routine are huge issues for new armies. My uncle used to be a pilot in the Navy and said there is nothing more complicated or hard than managing the logistics of a carrier for a deployment. He said it's something that might take the Chinese decades to perfect if they actually want to project power outside the south china sea. Russia seems to be getting a ton of experience in this right now.
Looks to me like we're starting to see more direct fire kills - 30mm autocannons and tank shots taking out AFU light armour. Not sure what that means, could just be sample bias in what turns up as video. Could also mean Ukraine has pushed more into the defensive lines and is engaging armoured forces directly rather than being held up among the light infantry screening forces.
I can understand why Putin would take a practical approach to the Wagner issue but Russian pilots were killed and surely this can't be swept under the rug. Do Russians see Prigozhin as responsible for the deaths? How will it play with the public if no one is punished for it?
Great article.
A good thing to remember though, is that in Russian structures "retirements/etc" have a far more flexible errr... Connotation. The MoD and the Army is as an opaque structure as it can be, so there really is no telling what's going on. Popov might return shortly, that's what Im saying.
But yes. The NATO humiliation was glorious. There's no more big things for Pukeraine to look forward to, as even the useless F-16s become a distant prospect.
Counteroink had now failed, and with only about 2,5 months of possible activity left before soil becomes unusable for large armor spearheads, its evident that no goals announced by the puke command are reachable.
Consider this - the puke capability now has diminished by about 30 000 combat troops, and in tech, by an estimated 30%. New armor shipments will not replenish these losses presumably until late August, in which time they'll probably suffer another 30% loss.
Ultimately this means that ukes will not restore combat readiness to the level of the FIRST days of the counteroink... Probably never by this point, which makes all further plans completely obsolete.
Many would call that cooked. I, having closely watched the war since the first hour of it and making my own analysis, estimate that with about 300k KIA khohols at the current point, thibnk that it would take around 150k more till Usrain suffers full military breakdown. If the current tempo of force attrition continues, 15-18k KIA a month, it would take further 8-10 months. If it slows down some - then a year.
However, surprises might be had and with a dire situation on the tech and munitions front, ukes can break maybe in half a year.
Geezus... not a fan of finding out we're the baddies. Liked the last video. Enlightening.
Are there still young Russians that think the West is great? They need to come here and see what a shithole ALL Western countries have become in the last 20 years.
Still not a good look for General officers pulling this kind of Roman civil war stunt. They all should STFU and get on with it. This destroys morale on Russian side and is used by AFU to raise morale on theirs.
I loved that last video, so true.
Thank you for yet another superb analysis.
Only two minor things to add:
1) Ukraine's naval mines didn't just affect Turkey but were also found in Romanian waters.
2) There are exactly 2 ships left in Odessa which were cleared by Russia for the grain deal, 1 that is loaded and about to depart, and a second that's still empty. So far, Russia has not let any NEW ships proceed north from Turkey, so Russia is ready to end the "deal" at a moment's notice, if its demands aren't met.
3) Unexploded cluster mines don't just affect kids who pick them up, thinking they're toys. They also explode when adults walk on them, sometimes decades later, or engage in agricultural work. Just ask Cambodia, which is STILL LOSING PEOPLE 50 YEARS LATER after being illegally bombed by the United States.
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501146548/cambodia-records-40-landmine-erw-casualties-in-first-eight-months
Sheesh, you're doing it again! That man didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought a teenage prostitute. Or he bought a teenage girl who was sold to him for sex. Trafficking is a bullshit word they made up. The real word is "pimping." There are no pimps anymore. They all turned into "traffickers." The man who sold her is a pimp. Is he a trafficker? We don't know. He's only a trafficker if he held her prisoner and forced her to work as a prostitute.
Actually it's worse than that. Suppose I buy a prostitute like lots of men do. I haven't done this in decades, but probably most men do at some point. Suppose she happens to be underage whether I'm aware of that or not. Suppose I have sex with this underage prostitute. I've now "trafficked" her by the mere act of having sex with her. Idiotic or what? Johns are johns. They're called "guys who buy prostitutes." Johns are not "traffickers." C'mon, that's insane.
Sex trafficking is all about sex slavery. Girls and women are taken by pimps, kept prisoner, forced to work as prostitutes, and not allowed to leave on penalty of being beaten or killed. If you're being held prisoner and forced to work as a prostitute with no way to leave, you're being trafficked. If none of those things are true, you aren't being "trafficked" for God's sake. A lot of feminists now use the word "trafficking" to describe all prostitution. All prostitutes are somehow or other being "trafficked." A lot of prostitutes work for themselves. I guess they're being trafficked too? In that case they must be "trafficking" themselves? See how insane this gets.
This guy didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought an underage prostitute. The crime ought to be "Procuring a Minor for Prostitution." And they can put him in prison for all I care! That's not my beef here. I'm sick of this sensationalistic, moral panic language.
Please do not contribute to this sex hysteria the feminists and sex fascists are poisoning our society with.
Thank you! This has been a PSA!
🙏🏼 Simplicius ... Popov situation has me intrigued 🤔
Re: Popov
This entire situation - including Prigozhin nonsense - looks like nothing more than the usual weeding out of officers in the first stages of any real conflict. The general theme is promotion of warriors over bean counters, but there are also the insubordinate and/or out of control vs. the professional.
Not the least bit clear to me there is a problem. Nor are bean counter types not useful as well - the question is the roles they are in.
Re: overall military situation in Ukraine
The video selection seems to show that the Russian military is basically sniping armored vehicles and groups of soldiers. This implies near air supremacy at the front since it looks like a number of the shots were taken from a plane. There were also a couple of apparent drone dropped grenades/small bombs.
Is the mass artillery bombardments of Artemovsk, 4 months ago, over? Or simply a function of the videos shown? Or a function of Ukraine basically attacking in bits and pieces?
Overall, an excellent writeup as has been your consistent pattern.
What a mess. I'm convinced nobody will win this.