Let’s begin with the most talked about news, which is that the Russian commander of the 58th Army was removed for allegedly questioning his higher-ups, i.e. Shoigu and Gerasimov. General Ivan Popov was replaced by Lt. General Lyamin, who was his previous deputy in the 58th. A little background: Popov was a relatively young, fast-rising general who only became the commander of the 58th army relatively recently. The 58th is the flagship combined arms army of the Southern Military District, and is not only the storied army group which single handedly trashed Georgia in 2008, but has also recently been the group handling the entire Zaporozhye front, heroically repelling the AFU’s largest offensive of the war. Also, it should be noted that Gerasimov himself once commanded the 58th.
With knowing anyone of the backstop of the command structure of the 58th or detailed recent combat history I stil feel confident making the following statement. The fact that half drunk civilians in Canada (that's me) are discussing thus situation on the comment section of substack (no disrespectful to simplicius I highly respect your analysis and im looking forward to your next post) is definitely not a good situation for the Russian military. Seriously the Russian MOD and General staff needs to kept this kind of shit in house and off social media ffs.
The MSM in the west are making much of this situation and the line is that the Russian military is riven with poltical factions and dissent, and that another coup is likely. Much like the Prig affair, this one is opaque and confusing.
My first though was that this seems to be a competent General so why has he been removed? Is this more Maskirovka? To encourage more UAF attacks against the 58th Army and so cause losses? Unlikely I think.
My second thought was that Generals do get moved around in war so not unusual but why the statement? Not intended to be public though but certainly leaked for a reason.
Finally, looking at this from the other point of view, if this was UAF Generals we were dealing with then most here would claim serious issues within the UAF leadership. So there may be something deeper to all this and it would be a mistake to discount it in that case. It might be that this is not about personalities but policies. A difference between the maximalist "war" faction and the minimalist "SMO" faction. In essence it is the complaint of Prig that the gloves need to come off.
My personal view is that Russia realised too late in the day that it was involved in a real war with serious powers and should have tried to finish this thing quicker. The delay has not necessarily worked in its favour. Whilst I understand the parlous state of the UAF I doubt it will fold unless Russia undertakes a series of serious strategic offensives designed to destroy the UAF and take key territory. Atomised attrition will not IMO bring Russian victory but stalemate and give time for Ukraine and NATO to re-arm and re-organise. That it has not thus far simply encourages the West to continue support and also suggests that the RF is not capable of doing so. Yet. So we nned to wait and see.
Honestly all I think know about the situation is that some politician leaked comments made by the former commander of the 58th in some group chat criticizing the way his superiors were handling the SMO and talking about going over there heads. If that's actually what happened then that's more then enough reason to sack him in my opinion. There is military discipline and a chain of command for a reason. Even he had just gone over his superiors heads to explain his misgivings with their superiors I good understand and even respect. But talking about these things kind off things in that kind off way ie. Bitching in a Facebook group is an unacceptable breach of discipline in my books.
That was the impression I got frow the vid too, although the write-up didn't point in that direction. I had to watch it a couple of times to make the time-line fit.
I'd say maybe the poor general had lost some good friends and troops on the front-lines, and popped his mouth of a bit TOO freely at the superiors, who took personal offence and decided to make an example.
Clearly, the main problem was counter-battery fire/abilities. It looks like he was aware of capabilities being moved elsewhere that could have saved his troops. And that's not an easy thing for a decent commander to see, although as SImplicious says he would not have 'the big picture' available.
He mouthed off, got a slap down/demotion, moaned about it to his subordinates PRIVATELY, and a maximalist MP released it out.
It's hard to imagine Popov was happy about that act, considering it turned the whole spat public, thereby much harder to sort out once the heat/rage was off.
Still, if he's that good, there will be spots in the new Corps being created.
And, if NATO doesn't come to any senses, those forces ARE likely to be used in a maximalist manner.
let me add something: I was a US diplomat and I can assure you that the Department does not take sustained critique of a chosen policy well, not at all. In fact, promotion can be withheld for troublemakers, or assign them to some nothing job in nowheresville, although they would NEVER accept that they are exacting retribution. It does have what it called a "dissent channel," where views can be presented that raise serious and weighty questions, but that are not represented in US policy. However, highly unlikely any such suggestions go anywhere but in the shredding machine, and I got a response to mine after THREE MONTHS. When it came, it poured scorn on the dissent, suggesting I should have submitted it to an op-ed page. Really. And you know who probably drafted that was Nuland, when working for Strobe. It reeked of her arrogance. She was a climber then, who knew nothing about Russia, and she remains one today. Although her girth makes climbing hard.
I also read Popov's stating that he spoke frankly and with firmness to mean he was blunt, and probably animated, to superiors. Possibly there was even a shouting match or two. Obviously I don't and can't know, though.
TBF, the news that Vicky "Not a female dog because dogs are nice people" Nuland is not the most compassionate, caring and considerate employer absolutely rocked me to my core.
I'm not even sure I can trust the next step on solid ground. ;)
I suppose if she'd answered instead of Albright, the answer would have been "It's a crying shame, we were hoping to kill more Iraqi children with the sanctions regime".
Or if she'd answered instead of Killary, she'd have said "We came. we saw... I had his heart cut out and sent to me to eat raw like our IS patsies do."
Truly, truly a seminal world leader in ethics and morality.
These people are malignant narcissists and their kind is stacked to the rafters in the collective west's institutions. This toxic mess has sealed the fall of the exceptionalists.
"My personal view is that Russia realised too late in the day that it was involved in a real war with serious powers and should have tried to finish this thing quicker. The delay has not necessarily worked in its favour."
Firstly, Putin had to be cagey about the pre-invasion build-up. If NATO had KNOWN he was going to attack, the initial losses would have been enormously higher.
Secondly, the aim was a quick diplomatic solution - which very nearly worked, and would have saved a LOT of heartache, loss, and misery.
Thirdly, BECAUSE it has been drawn out, Russia has had the chance to increase its military capacities, and is now prepared to face NATO entirety - if that becomes necessary. An immediate full-scale invasion could have triggered existing Western black plans - nuke strikes on large formations, fx.
We are in a time where there are NO RESTRICTIONS on Western leaders. None. There are no legal consequences (ICC? "...Are they BROWN?"). There are no political consequences (We can't vote the warmongers out when all parties are identical pro-NATO warmongers). Social consequences? Like regular Brits tutting if they see warmonger Tony B'Liar in the long distance?
Putin and Xi understand this in their bones. So does the Global South.
This time, ALL the Nazi countries are united, openly.
And we are lead by Fundamentalist believers in "Exceptionalism". And "Thousand Year Reichs".
I'm not saying Putin can't make mistakes, or that he hasn't, or this COULDN'T have been run better. Hindsight though...
In some ways, it couldn't have worked out better for Russia and Putin.
They have drawn out NATO and its plans, annhiliated European offensive militarism, rallied the Russian population around them (Helped considerably by the WH drooling cabbage's own pronouncements), united the Global South and China/India behind them, and slowly gained traction with THEIR (More honest) narratives regarding... well, "events".
A hell of a lot less Russians will die from this path, than letting the USA develop and release those bioweapons over Russia's borders.
The best result would have been Minsk implemented. Second best would have been the short SMO ending in successful diplomacy.
Good points but I don't know about India. They seems to be sucking up the their colonial masters as of late. Indians maybe could be included in "global south" but the elites are pro western and they are all that matter in the caste system India has..
And China... if the whole West can send Ukraine weapons China should be sending weapons (counter battery radars?) but instead sit on their hands like obedient factory slaves they are and they have a target on their back The West is very open about crushing China.. If Russia loses they will be a push over for West IMO despite huge GDP. It's Russia vs the West. End of story. The rest could at best be called neutral.
Yes, M. K. Bhadrakumar at Indian Punchline wasn't happy with Modi's performance at the SCO meeting earlier this month. And the Sultan going off the rails - is he going down Joe's road to dementia? But there you are things don't always go in some linear fashion. China may be assisting in ways that aren't always apparent.
Spot on. Like many people, I get very frustrated at Russia seeming to hang back (FFS, take Odessa, why don't you! :)). However, as you say, the wins just keep on piling up for Putin. The collective West has become so used to slapping around tinpot dictators that it has no answer to someone who can match them punch for punch, and then some.
"I doubt it will fold unless Russia undertakes a series of serious strategic offensives designed to destroy the UAF and take key territory."
Again you are correct. Not a lot of people realize this as history is not taught anymore, but it was not until the 1950's that the Soviet Union was finally able to pacify the UPA. They did not stop fighting after Germany's capitulation. Those awaiting a Ukrainian collapse will be waiting for a long time. Even if they run out of artillery completely, they will carry on fighting with small arms. Again we need to refer to what Erich Koch to understand why the Ukrainians keep fighting.
" Ukrainians are Russians who’ve become like cattle, ready to kill even their own Frau for the idea of a Ukrainian state. They’re ideal fighters against the Red Army, but then they’ll be subject to total sanitation after the war as the most terrible barbarians.”
Some of my favourite movies are from ex-Soviets, dark in a cultural way, an acceptance of a normality that requires natural perseverance that doesn't need a name. Of course, I'm but a fly on the wall. Nevertheless, I loved 'The Fool', 'Loveless, 'Petrov's Flu', ' Beanpole', 'Ayka', 'Leviathan', ' Night Watch' and '12'.
a line from Dostoyevsky (cannot recall which novel) that always stays with me is this: if you leave two Russians alone in a room, when you return you will have two political factions.
I had a friend whose grandmother's family was so contentious, that when her grandmother was born there was a huge fight over what her name should be. In the end, the only thing they could agree on was she was white, so they named her Blanche.
Ha yeah I hear you. I was there back in 2005. Barely slept at on the train from Moscow to Ufa spent the whole taking with random people and drinking samogon. Good times.
I don't think they are going to arrest the General in the Duma who took it upon himself to reveal what was a private conversation between friends and fighting comrades. He wanted to explain why he was removed, defend his motives, encourage his fellow fighters. It should have stayed private, but this is the age of the damned electronic immediacy where your every thought and feeling can be snatched and made public. General's bad.
Canadian soldiers are not the soldiers of WWI and WWII. After neutering Canadian Special Forces, girly-men are the only kind allowed to fill the once-effective Canadian Armed Forces.
Known for "punching above her weight" diplomatically Canada is but another Washington lapdog, with a leader whose eye is ever searching to others of his ilk for their approval.
Rather than taking the Pearson/Chretien approach and standing up against U.S. Adventurism, we now have a morally weak, intellectually stunted B grade showman.
An embarrassment to the 70% of Canadians who didn't vote for and don't want this POS representing them.
What utter nonsense! Justin looks nothing like Fidel, but definitely resembles Pierre. Trudeau Sr. and Castro were friends, and I believe Castro was an honest and honourable man. Neither of them were fools. Why slander the dead to satisfy your rage?
The circumstantial 'evidence' ie similarities in likeness, the historical timeline, the two families knowing each other, the fact Fidel was a womaniser and Margaret was a trollop that couldn't keep a dick out of her minge, and Fidelito stating that Justin was his half brother, all make a compelling case.
Anyway if true I'd reckon Fidel would be thoroughly ashamed of Justin Turdrow as he serves the people and "ideals" Fidel spent his life opposing.
Fidel's legitimate son, the one that suicided, admitted that Justin was his step brother.
Castro may have been honest but so what, any man has sexual urges, and Fidel loved fucking women. His sexual appetite was legendary. And Pierre's wife was a promiscous slapper that fucked her way around the world.
As for Justin just compare the photos of him and Fidel. Justin looks nothing like Trudeau.
Anyway Karen, a mind is like a parachute, it works best when open.
"Over-advertised junk" is what that soldier in the last video said. Applies to American ego too. I'm sick of their politics and the world getting infected. No mask stops the smell of neocon bullshit.
Most media seems to have missed French General Michel Yakovleff's revealing ranting about NATO and Ukraine on France24 earlier this week. He was in a "debate" with other NATO loyalists and a minor politician. I posted the transcript at https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/ukraine-will-be-a-problem-member
Regards "ungodly levels of destruction for the AFU", there was another sign of the Media facing truth. It happened on the Wall Street Journal. Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt (Ret.) first lied that Bakhmut has flipped between Ukraine and Russia numerous times, I think to increase the possibility that Ukraine could split Russia's land bridge to Crimea. But that was carrot propaganda before the stick of Russian defence which, with props on table, he showed to be formidable, almost insurmountable. I've timed the video for that moment - https://youtu.be/zMZ58anSFF4?t=287
So, what he is saying is that there will be "cessation" of hostilities; and when there is "resumption" of hostilities, Ukraine will suddenly "one day" became a member of Nato, without having to go through due process.
If they think they have to fool the Russians once again, they should at least avoid revealing it in public. Why should Russia agree to a "cessation" of hostilities if Ukraine will instantaneously or automatically become a Nato member whenever it decides to "resume" hostilities. Ukraine could agree to a ceasefire today and be entitled "to demand" Nato membership when it resumes hostilities tomorrow.
It boggles the mind ... The collective West has brooded and brooded for days or months to come up with a way of getting Ukraine into Nato on the sly without the Russians noticing.
The West's degeneration is manifest in the intellectual depravity of its leaders.
Why does Russia always shows that she is so afraid or article 5 of NATO ? That shows weakness and encourages aggression against Russia on all fronts Russia is always waiting for NATO action to give reaction rather than doing action on her own she does not even know what she wants!
curios where are you getting that information- 'afraid', etc. Russia never said or shown it, they want to limit the scope of the conflict - yes. However, no article 5,6, 537 or whatever is some sort of stupid level 80 magical shield that blocks all damage. Besides, did you actually read it? What exactly does it offer Ukraine that it does not have now? It requires absolutely nothing from NATO members besides 'assistance' that each country can determine what it is. I.e. posting an angry twitter message is definitely sufficient assistance that say Spain will give Ukraine and fulfill its article 5 'obligations' . Never understood this stupid fetish of NATO/article whatever. if you want to fight -> fight. if you dont -> dont , the excuses dont matter.
Yes I saw that, I have By pass pay walls addon's which allow you to see 'most of the worlds /western papers. Really it's a chore the level of deceit is overwhelming. The stupid General (in the WSJ) had a oversized TOY TANK and drove it over a map. The generals biggest theater was when the Western Tank goes over a tank trap coming out of the trap it exposes the 'soft under belly' of the tank. Like wow. So many tank destroyed videos and none have shown that General Dipshit. So being on the east coast of Australasia ( and ain't they brainwashed here ) we get a full on twofer Russia and China.
His goal seemed to be the presentation of excuse. I find that extremely interesting. Sure, tanks could be taken out that way but to leave out that they haven;t got that far adds question to his purpose. Surely a General can afford a longer coffee table to show artillery, thermobaric warheads etc.
Australia, where almost every South African I knew wanted to emigrate to. Not enough good media describing your corner of the world but I see that your invincible economy has some wobbles. Imagine if your government had started fighting for Julian Assange earlier. I wonder at the purpose of delay, imagining nuclear subs etc.
Vilnius seems to have become the most over-hyped event of the year.
Is the USA finally looking for an exit?
They get Sweden and Finland, a base in Poland, add something to the Baltic States, and lie that they have made the world safer against future Russian aggression.
They could use a failed Ukraine as a marketing tool against 'evil' Russia whilst further lying that they had supported Ukraine as best as they could but 'brave' Zelensky, no matter how hard he tried, failed. They'd be happy to do that after their ego couldn't handle his criticism.
Zelensky escapes assassination by heading to his dacha in Italy or wherever.
As Russia keeps learning and adapting military strategy, so bankers and corporates will do the same for profit. If the West can force a Korean-styled line between Russia and Ukraine, their weapons dealers will make another fortune. And whatever is left of Ukraine will be on sale at bargain prices.
Russia will do whatever it can to get territory so that it can finance its defence. Then it will turn the occupied coast into one of the best parts of Russia, telling the world that Russia is cool.
This is just another thought as I constantly grapple with the insanity of this war and its body parts scattered by landmines in the forests and mud of what was once a beautiful country with Slavic people who, for the most part, got along.
Ukraine is evidence of the power of misinformation, and how we humans, at least most of us, are easily manipulated. If it could happen to Ukraine, it could happen to us.
Now to take a big breath and watch those "grisly" videos because we must remind ourselves of the horror of war.
Some in the USA are desperately looking for the off-ramp. They never DREAMED it would go so far! which tells us something about their vision and insight. The most important fact in this regard is that Foreign Affairs, the pseudo-scientific outlet for the Council on Foreign Relations, the same journal that pushed the idea of the exceptional US as the sole ruler of the world, now is allowing the "pro-peace" viewpoint. Of course, it is still stuffed with US nonsense, but it is calling for negotiations. As if. The negotiations now can only come on Russian terms. The US threw away the chance for a much more reasonable agreement than it will get now regarding NATO and its intentions in Ukraine and the other nations surrounding Russia that are not members. The off-ramp now will come at a cost that will ensure no budding rediscovery of friendship betweem the US and Russia in the aftermath.
You adopted someone admirable name. I appreciate Norma Brown's words from 2013:
" I never thought the US would replace Russia as the ugly arrogant ideologue contemptuous of other peoples’ rights. But here we are. At home individual rights and religious rights and all kinds of other rights are under simultaneous attack; and abroad we attack the rights of other countries to settle their own problems. Then we’ll try to stuff our own culture down the throats of the conquered, and expect statues erected to our heroic actions. And when we have a Benghazi or Christians under extreme attack in Egypt or a 9/11 – our government will be profoundly saddened and shocked. I don’t know what folly our government is planning in Syria, but one thing is for sure: it won’t be to our credit and it won’t be to our advantage. The hounds of war are loose and at the world’s throat."
If it had been 2021, Kosovo could've been replaced with Syria, and Syria with Russia.
The same bloody wheel spins and spins yet the majority moan, raise a flag, moan, raise a flag, and so on...
Much truth. I would modify the part of exporting culture though. How do you export a culture that you are destroying daily by bastardizing every institution and creating an environment that promotes tribalism and conflict.
It really makes me wonder how badly certain money-laundering operations are going. It went from "hands off, no invade, Ukraine is OUR money pit" to "sabre-rattling is profitable" to "oh shit you're destroying everything" really quickly.
Sorry ,that evil entity is British English invention and is infiltrated by English spies, doing the work of pirate English race than for USA .
Quote "The most important fact in this regard is that Foreign Affairs, the pseudo-scientific outlet for the Council on Foreign Relations, the same journal that pushed the idea of the exceptional US as the sole ruler of the world, now is allowing the "pro-peace" viewpoin"
I'm afraid the Brits are, like the Americans, the heroes of my youth and the enemies of my old age. I could never have imagined this denigration of the American idea and its Hollywoodization.
I don't see any reason why Biden would want to end the war, it's not a major voting issue and either way the GOP isn't going to put up much of a threat in 2024 (Trump won't be winning that's for sure and they don't really have anyone else at this point). No, they will just keep shipping over the gear as long as Ukraine holds together as a political entity. All this stuff just means more money for the weapons companies to replace it, no reason to stop.
The war is failing so they either need to end it or create a new narrative. Ukraine helped them move on from their cruelly catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan (shame on humankind for how quickly that was forgotten). They'll likely figure something out.
If the USA can't manage the PR regards Ukraine, the Republicans need to blame Biden.
Biden is always one word away from a stroke. Can't see how he runs again. His health may not survive it.
I've no skin in choosing between Democrats or Republicans, and consider both awful, so no viable option is good for the world.
Trump seems to be heading for a crash - the real power in the USA is out to get him (with the shitty things he did just an excuse).
The only good thing is that there are great fringe candidates who, this time, they'll be unable to stop raising important talking points (of which Ukraine will be one).
I'm not a seer, and have expressed my doubts about Trump's survival, but imagine these two scenarios: Harris as interim President running next year, versus a Trump/Kennedy partnership. All black mirror to me.
People have no idea what is going on, they just accept the headlines. Biden has cognitive issues but he isn't dying and can easily serve another term if needed. I don't see anything changing except maybe quantity of weapons will decrease possibly.
I think that firing generals is the norm in any real war. That does not apply to the colonial policing actions that the US has engaged in over the past half century or so. After all, during 1944-5 all the British, Canadian and US generals seemed to be in perpetual conflict with each other. Montgomery fired Dempsey, for example. Even in Burma there was an almost successful attempt to get Slim fired in 1945, possibly the most effective British commander of the entire war. As ever, there are two (or even more) sides to these stories.
Vilnius will go down as a milestone on the path of the US empire’s decline. Not quite analogous to the 1956 Suez debacle but it is getting close. Give it a few years and the US will be scaling back its overseas bases. It is coming. The only question is how long it will be until they face reality and beat the Retreat from Europe and the Retreat from Asia; plus how much damage they create in the process.
The bigger the bloody nose the US gets in this war the faster her collapse will be and the sooner we can send in the special rendition flights to arrest every last war criminal in the West, ..... and boy there are tens of thousands of them including every last person working in the "defence industries" for these murderous western regimes. "I was only following orders" didn't wash in Nuremberg and it won't wash now.
Stop being childish, take your "reprehensible" and stick it where the sun don't shine. We are adults here. I am comparing the evils of NATO and the US over the last 70 years with what those on trial at Nuremberg did and remember half the criminals from WW2 just walked and were never put on trial, Roosevelt , Stalin and Churchill to name only three. The American in charge of the bombing of Hamburg I think it was said to his wife the day after, when he had seen the photographs, that he was glad we were going to win this war and she asked why and he said because we committed a war crime yesterday. Where was the trial of him and his men for war crimes that he was honest enough to say on the day, not decades later, that he and they had committed. It never happened because as with WW1 only Germans could be the bad guys under the Nuremberg court's remit. And the US and NATO have morphed into an evil far worse than that since then.
You seem to have lost you way on that last sentence. As you stated up front "...half the criminals from WW2 just walked....".
I think it would be a bit more accurate to state that any war criminal with a few dollars of information or knowledge was secreted to other places, while a few of the worthless masochists were offered to the 'people' for public retribution.
I agree. It is extreme stress, and personalities clash and arguments are sparked that have consequences. I've popped off my mouth more than once in my life and usually I got put back in my box straight away.
It's interesting and a little concerning to hear about all of these leadership changes and concerns at the high level in the MoD. I wonder how the US Military leadership would have looked if the internet and social media were around in 1942. My guess is Patton wouldn't have commanded an army by the end of the Italy campaign with social media leaks.
I'll leave an optimistic option that maybe this relieved general will be moved to one of the newly formed armies for an upcoming Russian offensive.
As for growing pains, logistics and daily routine are huge issues for new armies. My uncle used to be a pilot in the Navy and said there is nothing more complicated or hard than managing the logistics of a carrier for a deployment. He said it's something that might take the Chinese decades to perfect if they actually want to project power outside the south china sea. Russia seems to be getting a ton of experience in this right now.
Maybe but they cut corners all the time. You couldn't pay me to go into a Chinese made skyscraper for example. It wouldn't shock me for them to have a carrier sink because the welding subcontractor used a cheap knock off soldering material and cheap bolts.
Looks to me like we're starting to see more direct fire kills - 30mm autocannons and tank shots taking out AFU light armour. Not sure what that means, could just be sample bias in what turns up as video. Could also mean Ukraine has pushed more into the defensive lines and is engaging armoured forces directly rather than being held up among the light infantry screening forces.
I think the mosquito attacks by Ukr were covered in a recent episode of Simplicus, yes? They most definitely are engaging more using hapless Uke soldiers. They rush trenches, which Russians already left so as not to be overrun, and in which the Russkies left behind a mine or a few. I've only seen one vid of it and it was absolutely ghastly. Of course, if the mine(s) didn't finish the Ukes, the Russian gunners surely already have the coordinates of their own trenches.
Yes they were covered in an earlier post here, and elsewhere. And I've seen those awful videos too. I saw one where it was clearly a claymore facing down the length of the trench, horrible.
I don't think that explains an increase in direct fire weapons though, unless those mosquito attacks have allowed Ukraine to sacrifice their way through the screens to reach the actual defense lines. I haven't seen any maps that showed attacks at the defense lines we saw on satellite images, maybe I missed them.
One way it could tie together is if Russia was responding to the mosquito attacks by pushing armoured units up into the grey zone to hunt down the infiltration groups.
I can understand why Putin would take a practical approach to the Wagner issue but Russian pilots were killed and surely this can't be swept under the rug. Do Russians see Prigozhin as responsible for the deaths? How will it play with the public if no one is punished for it?
I would imagine when the West is totally vanquished there will be a night of the long knives played out in the courts for all to see and those responsible will end their days in prison.
Yeah, and he doesn't boast about it, just delivers the retribution and no one else seems to know what any devastating attack is payback for what offense.
It certainly would explain why he's back in Russia and talking to Putin and I know others have proposed similar ideas but without the public understanding that fact then we're still left with the same problem, unless the truth is revealed. If you're right I still want to know how the Russian public view the situation. What do you think was the aim behind the deception?
I made a short list when it happened, not exhaustive:
"Exposed sleeper agents.
Triggered NATO's 'coup trap' prematurely.
Prepared the territorial defences for any surprise visit by western mercenaries wearing Russian uniforms.
Got the enemy propaganda systems to MASSIVELY boost the very Russian commander who just took Bakhmut.
Massively embarrased the western corporate media.
Split Wagner, and the blooded and experienced troops will now move to the RF directly, while what remains in Europe will move to Belorus to scare the Poles off from doing anything stupid.
Revealed any Wagner or RF internal NATO corruption.
And psychologically prepare the country to FEEL as though it had successully rebuffed a foreign invasion - even though it never actually happened."
Annoyingly, I'd saved it as a graphic, so had to type all that back in, as there's no way to post it up. >_<
A good thing to remember though, is that in Russian structures "retirements/etc" have a far more flexible errr... Connotation. The MoD and the Army is as an opaque structure as it can be, so there really is no telling what's going on. Popov might return shortly, that's what Im saying.
But yes. The NATO humiliation was glorious. There's no more big things for Pukeraine to look forward to, as even the useless F-16s become a distant prospect.
Counteroink had now failed, and with only about 2,5 months of possible activity left before soil becomes unusable for large armor spearheads, its evident that no goals announced by the puke command are reachable.
Consider this - the puke capability now has diminished by about 30 000 combat troops, and in tech, by an estimated 30%. New armor shipments will not replenish these losses presumably until late August, in which time they'll probably suffer another 30% loss.
Ultimately this means that ukes will not restore combat readiness to the level of the FIRST days of the counteroink... Probably never by this point, which makes all further plans completely obsolete.
Many would call that cooked. I, having closely watched the war since the first hour of it and making my own analysis, estimate that with about 300k KIA khohols at the current point, thibnk that it would take around 150k more till Usrain suffers full military breakdown. If the current tempo of force attrition continues, 15-18k KIA a month, it would take further 8-10 months. If it slows down some - then a year.
However, surprises might be had and with a dire situation on the tech and munitions front, ukes can break maybe in half a year.
Are there still young Russians that think the West is great? They need to come here and see what a shithole ALL Western countries have become in the last 20 years.
Pardon me sir, I know what you mean, totally understandable, and so I'd really like to say that I think "the west" still have some regions worth to visit.
We should not forget that there are real people with real life who live outside "the city", and don't really want to know what politician did in the city. If they want to burn the city, go ahead, but please leave us peaceful people alone. This is my view, 7 years of my experience after moving out, best decision in my life.
Yes there are many nice places still but there are fewer and fewer in the West every single year and all by design whereas in Russia there are more and more nice places every year.
The Western cultures and amenities are in collapse mode and Russian cultures and amenities are in growth mode. I just wish that Russian youth would get their heads out of Western propaganda and see the improved reality around them.
I live in a small mountain town in BC, Canada, and have friends and relatives in small towns and cities in several other provinces. My town is close to USA border (Washington, Idaho, and Montana) and I have often visited small towns in those states (pre-covid). None of the small cities and rural areas I have visited in Canada or NW USA are 'shitholes', nor are most of the people unkind or unfriendly.
While our politicians, business leaders, and media continue to degrade everything they touch, many people are quietly getting on with their lives and helping each other.
There are plenty of small places around where I live that are perfectly lovely and are virtually unchanged over the last 20 or 30 years but these areas are now having criminals, i.e. illegal economic migrant,s bussed in and the only reason many of those economic immigrants aren't staying and destroying the place is the fact the weather isn't to their liking so they head down South as soon as they can. It will come to your towns too and if you don't believe that you have your head in the sand. I never said people weren't friendly, people with their head in the sand are usually very friendly until they see what is happening and then they aren't. I am saying that if young Russians are still thinking that the West has it good they have it wrong as we are part way through a planned destruction of everything that made the West great and distance from Ottawa or DC won't save you.
I don't think Canada has as many illegal immigrants as USA does. Certainly there are many more people from other countries and cultures here than there were 20 years ago, there are many more people from Middle East and Africa now - mostly fleeing US/NATO wars, but what crime there is in this area is mostly perpetrated by white Canadians, not recent immigrants.
Canadians are monarchists who fought for German scum. May whatever jewelry wearing scum you worship rot. No wonder Canadians give up their country so easily. They have no identity anyways except they bowed down to fucking German monarchs.
Still not a good look for General officers pulling this kind of Roman civil war stunt. They all should STFU and get on with it. This destroys morale on Russian side and is used by AFU to raise morale on theirs.
1) Ukraine's naval mines didn't just affect Turkey but were also found in Romanian waters.
2) There are exactly 2 ships left in Odessa which were cleared by Russia for the grain deal, 1 that is loaded and about to depart, and a second that's still empty. So far, Russia has not let any NEW ships proceed north from Turkey, so Russia is ready to end the "deal" at a moment's notice, if its demands aren't met.
3) Unexploded cluster mines don't just affect kids who pick them up, thinking they're toys. They also explode when adults walk on them, sometimes decades later, or engage in agricultural work. Just ask Cambodia, which is STILL LOSING PEOPLE 50 YEARS LATER after being illegally bombed by the United States.
Sheesh, you're doing it again! That man didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought a teenage prostitute. Or he bought a teenage girl who was sold to him for sex. Trafficking is a bullshit word they made up. The real word is "pimping." There are no pimps anymore. They all turned into "traffickers." The man who sold her is a pimp. Is he a trafficker? We don't know. He's only a trafficker if he held her prisoner and forced her to work as a prostitute.
Actually it's worse than that. Suppose I buy a prostitute like lots of men do. I haven't done this in decades, but probably most men do at some point. Suppose she happens to be underage whether I'm aware of that or not. Suppose I have sex with this underage prostitute. I've now "trafficked" her by the mere act of having sex with her. Idiotic or what? Johns are johns. They're called "guys who buy prostitutes." Johns are not "traffickers." C'mon, that's insane.
Sex trafficking is all about sex slavery. Girls and women are taken by pimps, kept prisoner, forced to work as prostitutes, and not allowed to leave on penalty of being beaten or killed. If you're being held prisoner and forced to work as a prostitute with no way to leave, you're being trafficked. If none of those things are true, you aren't being "trafficked" for God's sake. A lot of feminists now use the word "trafficking" to describe all prostitution. All prostitutes are somehow or other being "trafficked." A lot of prostitutes work for themselves. I guess they're being trafficked too? In that case they must be "trafficking" themselves? See how insane this gets.
This guy didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought an underage prostitute. The crime ought to be "Procuring a Minor for Prostitution." And they can put him in prison for all I care! That's not my beef here. I'm sick of this sensationalistic, moral panic language.
Please do not contribute to this sex hysteria the feminists and sex fascists are poisoning our society with.
"However the things people do talk and care about, like child grooming, have been ignored by the wider media class."
I think people have gotten hysterical about this too and it's turned into one more idiot moral panic.
I grew up in the 70's and 80's. That term "grooming" was only and ever used to refer to what child molesters did to convince little kids to have sex with them. You see, kids don't know what sex is! I sure didn't. They have zero sex drive until puberty, so they're in the dark about the whole thing. Which is why they have to be talked into it.
Once someone has a sex drive, in a sense they are an adult as they can now seek out sex with other humans as prerogative based on the needs of themselves as an organism. I really do not think you can "groom" a teenage girl. They're too sophisticated for that.
Or a grown woman. We are now told that not only teenagers but grown women can and are being "groomed." I had no idea that grown women were little children. However, feminism infantalizes women and says they have no agency and therefore nothing that happens is their fault. Women never DO anything. Instead they are simply victims or recipients of agency: things only and ever HAPPEN TO women.
Clearly teenage girls and grown women can be SEDUCED and perhaps teenage girls are easier to seduce than women, except that having a lot of experience with both (the former when I was quite young), I would never agree with that. Teenage girls are notoriously difficult and it was always a lot easier to get a women to give it up than a girl, who are notoriously fickle and worried about protecting their image.
Society has the idea that adults seducing teens below a certain age is exploitative. The teens are judged to be naive and the adult is seen as exploiting their lack of experience. This is the reason for the AOC and statutory rape laws. I don't necessarily object to either of these things, but we really need to protect minors from stat rape laws, and I don't want to see any minors arrested for the crime of having sex.
I think you will find "a lot of feminists" use the term "sex workers" to describe prostitution. A 14 year old 'learning disabled' (mentally impaired? learning disabled covers a lot of ground, but obviously causing concern for her parents) child who is being held on a military base (was she being 'lent out' or 'sold' to other marines besides the one who was holding her?) is not a cut and dried case of prostitution.
"Sex worker" implies a choice made by - presumably - an adult woman (or man). Trafficked implies a lack of choice. Does a 14 year old qualify as an adult making a choice....especially if she is mentally lacking?
Do most men buy sex from prostitutes? Some men do, but most? I know men tend to have much loser morals around sex generally, but I doubt that most men frequent prostitutes. And men who buy sex from teens and children are morally reprehensible.
I'm quite certain that a majority of men will buy a prostitute at least once in their lives. Curiosly, the wealthier the man is, the more likely he is to do so!
"Trafficked implies a lack of choice. Does a 14 year old qualify as an adult making a choice....especially if she is mentally lacking?"
Yes, I don't agree with this wack definition. I'm quite certain that a lot of teenage prostitutes are working for themselves, though I've only spoken with one woman who worked as a prostitute while a minor and she was being "trafficked."
If the minor teen girl is being held prisoner in any way, say by her pimp, she's absolutely being trafficked. Trafficking has always meant "sex slavery" - women who are basically imprisoned and forced to work as prostitutes for a pimp and threatened with injury or death if they leave. You have to prove this sort of sex slavery for a crime to be trafficking IMHO. The notion that all teen girl prostitutes are being "trafficked" is ludicrous, and it's an abuse of language for hysterical reasons to perpetuate a moral panic.
"And men who buy sex from teens and children are morally reprehensible."
Maybe so, but what's the crime? How about Procuring Sex from a Minor? And if you knew she was underage, you can be imprisoned for that as far as I am concerned. I just don't think it's "trafficking" to buy a whore.
Teens means 18 or 19 years old? What's wrong with buying an 18 or 19 year old prostitute? I've met a number of men who did that, often more than once.
I've talked to many, many men who have bought prostitutes maybe hundreds of times in total. Not one ever admitted to buying an underage prostitute. I've never seen an underage prostitute, and I've only met one who worked as one. I don't think this sort of thing is very common.
How many men actually purchase sex from little girls aged under 13? Never met a man who did that and never met a girl who was prostituted out as a little girl, and I've talked to, seen, and read about a number of women who got molested as girls. I met one just the other day. The molestation started at age three! And you really don't want to know her opinion on getting molested.
You may be right, as to most men having bought sex, I do not have information one way or the other. Even saying I doubt it to be true is only an opinion, not backed up in any way. I do know that most men seem to be much more obsessed with sex than most women, so it may well be true.
I agree that 'trafficking' is used pretty loosely, and buying sex from an 'underage' girl or boy is not the same as trafficking them. In some cultures 14 yr old girls and boys are seen as adults, and take on adult responsibilities, but I suspect that in those cultures there is both family and society support for these young people.
In our culture, a 14 yr old girl (or boy) is not experienced enough to be able to freely choose prostitution, and an adult who takes advantage of their inexperience, or need, to buy sex from them should be stopped....ideally - probably totally unrealistic in a culture like ours tho'.
In our society, we do have a legal definition of adulthood, based on age. Most 18 yr olds are considered adults in many areas, though often not when it comes to choosing to drink alcohol, use recreational drugs, or vote. Is a person who is not considered mature enough to make those choices really mature enough to sell themselves sexually?
About this particular story, there is too much that is unknown to really judge if she was "trafficked". The girl was underage, which means sex with her is illegal given the man is an adult. It was not clear how competent she is mentally (outside of her youth), not whether she was coerced or free to leave, or whether it was only the one marine who used her, or several.
"In our culture, a 14 yr old girl (or boy) is not experienced enough to be able to freely choose prostitution"
I would only add that of course she is able to freely choose prostitution in a psychological sense. I've talked to women who were having sex with older men, not just one but many of them, from age 13-14 on, and I've read accounts from others. It's quite clear to me that they knew what they were doing. Also they all defend their behavior to this day and insist that they were not harmed.
However, legally speaking, we say that she is not LEGALLY able to choose to become a prostitute. We say this because she is naive, and we think men will take advantage of her inexperience and exploit her. I don't see how we will ever legalize minors practicing prostitution. I'm not sure if it's legal anywhere.
So there are different levels of agency here, psychological and legal.
"Is a person who is not considered mature enough to make those choices really mature enough to sell themselves sexually?"
I think 18-20 year olds ought to be able to sell their bodies legally. Of course in the US it's illegal not only for that age group but for anyone to sell their body for sex except maybe in Nevada.
Thank you for the pleasant conversation. It's an extremely emotional topic and few people are able to discuss it without turning into human volcanoes. Appreciate your calm self-control.
I think this is now a side thread, so we are not hi-jacking the main thread and it's OK to respond again. I think that sex is a super charged issue, partly because we have inherited a lot of attitudes that could use some re-thinking. Above you said, "I don't want to see any minors arrested for the crime of having sex" and I absolutely agree. In this province two minors having sex is not criminal. I think the age difference has to be more than 4 years before social services gets involved. But a minor having sex with an adult can be prosecuted - the adult, not the minor.
When a young and inexperienced person starts selling sex, I think they do not know enough to protect themselves from consequences. Teen girls (and boys) have contracted AIDS, herpes, and other STDs because they did not demand that partners use a condom, or even know that they could and should demand it. I have more than one young friend to whom this has happened.
If we as a culture and society are going to be open to "sex workers" going into business at increasingly young ages, then we need to be ensuring that all the information about how to protect themselves from not only pregnancy but also disease is easily and openly available. And maybe anyone who has sex without protection and disclosure when they have an STD needs to be held criminally liable.
You are right that as soon as a person is physically able to have sex, and feel sexual attraction, there is no way to prevent sexual experimentation, or prostitution - although I have reservations about the ability to freely choose prostitution at a young age, I had friends who did sell sex as teenagers, and you say it is not uncommon, so my doubts may be unfounded.
But until women who sell sex are not looked down upon as 'whores' and prostitution is a respectable life/career choice, I hesitate to see it as not exploiting young people....whether they think they are making the choice freely or not. I am glad we have some laws aiming to protect 'under age' children from sexual exploitation.
Oh I absolutely agree with the laws against minors prostituting themselves! We can't allow that as a society. Hell, we can't even agree that minor teens are sexual beings and have a right to a full sexual life, including with others. As I said, I wonder if minor teen prostitution is legal anywhere!
If we are going to prosecute johns, we have to prove that they knew she was underage. You also get into some very weird situations such as that with Prince Andrew, where his sex with Virginian Giuffre was perfectly legal unless and until he decided to pay her $5,000 for it, in which case he was guilty of "sex trafficking." See how dumb that is. So sex is just fine as long as you don't pay the woman, then it's illegal. Hey I like this idea! Can we extend it to grown women please?
Same with Matt Gaetz. He and Greenberg had no idea that that 17 year old girl was underage. She had a fake ID. She was also no babe in the woods. She'd already had sex with half the men in Florida (and a lot of the women) by the time she hooked up with Gaetz, etc. She was an escort in business for herself. Which obviously means she was trafficking herself! Yes Gaetz and Greenberg had sex with her, yes they flew her across state lines (violating the evil Mann Act which must be repealed), yes they paid for plane tickets for her.
At some point her cover was blown and Gaetz, etc. realized she was a minor. They called her on the carpet, chewed her out, and cut off all contact with her. The responsible thing to do. For acting responsibly, Gaetz is looking at sex trafficking charges! Further, Greenberg went down on a federal RICO prosecution. Apparently, Greenberg's group of men buying whores was actually a criminal gang or a mafia, the purpose of the gang being to buy whores! Ok, that's just ridiculous and it's a total abuse of the RICO law.
You can get Herpes with a condom easily.
In this province two minors having sex is not criminal. I think the age difference has to be more than 4 years before social services gets involved.
We could easily just say it's not illegal for minors below the AOC to have sex, as Scotland has done. The hysterics will scream but I can answer those rejoinders.
What about child molestation? Minors don't engage in a lot of actual molesting of little kids. That tends to be an adult thing. If some minor is already pedophlic and doing that, maybe we can prosecute him. What happens is older brothers under 13 and teenage boys having sex with their younger daughters.
The two cases I'm familiar with involved a 5-8 year old girl and her teenage brother and a 4-8 year old girl and her 8-12 year old brother. The latter says she enjoyed it, was sorry it ended, and would like to start it up again.
In these cases, I think Social Services needs to get involved to try to get this boy to stop having sex with his sister. In the latter case, it's too minors, but this has gone beyond childhood sex play and I don't think it's healthy. Childhood sex play obviously should not be prosecuted. I work as a counselor and many of my clients engaged in this behavior. If it's a teenage boy, he needs to be told to quit having sex with his little sister. The parents need to get involved. If he won't stop messing with his kid sister, it's logical to separate the boy and put him in foster care. So there's good motivation for the parents to read him the riot act.
Honestly, consensual sex between siblings, even when it veers into "molestation" is not particularly harmful to the girl. I think it's because he's another minor like she is. What causes harm is either coercion or a little girl getting molested by an adult, and even that results in serious long term harm only 23% of the time.
"And maybe anyone who has sex without protection and disclosure when they have an STD needs to be held criminally liable."
You've opened up a gigantic can of worms here. The gay community especially is against that because this behavior is rampant in their community. I see why people lie. I have a friend who has Herpes and he discloses to his female potential partners even though he's not contagious and a lot of them just take off.
Teenage minor prostitution is apparently fairly common. It's just that I've never personally heard of it. I have known women who worked and work as prostitutes and I've even talked to them recently. Never met one who started work as a minor so I don't think it's REAL common.
This entire situation - including Prigozhin nonsense - looks like nothing more than the usual weeding out of officers in the first stages of any real conflict. The general theme is promotion of warriors over bean counters, but there are also the insubordinate and/or out of control vs. the professional.
Not the least bit clear to me there is a problem. Nor are bean counter types not useful as well - the question is the roles they are in.
Re: overall military situation in Ukraine
The video selection seems to show that the Russian military is basically sniping armored vehicles and groups of soldiers. This implies near air supremacy at the front since it looks like a number of the shots were taken from a plane. There were also a couple of apparent drone dropped grenades/small bombs.
Is the mass artillery bombardments of Artemovsk, 4 months ago, over? Or simply a function of the videos shown? Or a function of Ukraine basically attacking in bits and pieces?
Overall, an excellent writeup as has been your consistent pattern.
With knowing anyone of the backstop of the command structure of the 58th or detailed recent combat history I stil feel confident making the following statement. The fact that half drunk civilians in Canada (that's me) are discussing thus situation on the comment section of substack (no disrespectful to simplicius I highly respect your analysis and im looking forward to your next post) is definitely not a good situation for the Russian military. Seriously the Russian MOD and General staff needs to kept this kind of shit in house and off social media ffs.
The MSM in the west are making much of this situation and the line is that the Russian military is riven with poltical factions and dissent, and that another coup is likely. Much like the Prig affair, this one is opaque and confusing.
My first though was that this seems to be a competent General so why has he been removed? Is this more Maskirovka? To encourage more UAF attacks against the 58th Army and so cause losses? Unlikely I think.
My second thought was that Generals do get moved around in war so not unusual but why the statement? Not intended to be public though but certainly leaked for a reason.
Finally, looking at this from the other point of view, if this was UAF Generals we were dealing with then most here would claim serious issues within the UAF leadership. So there may be something deeper to all this and it would be a mistake to discount it in that case. It might be that this is not about personalities but policies. A difference between the maximalist "war" faction and the minimalist "SMO" faction. In essence it is the complaint of Prig that the gloves need to come off.
My personal view is that Russia realised too late in the day that it was involved in a real war with serious powers and should have tried to finish this thing quicker. The delay has not necessarily worked in its favour. Whilst I understand the parlous state of the UAF I doubt it will fold unless Russia undertakes a series of serious strategic offensives designed to destroy the UAF and take key territory. Atomised attrition will not IMO bring Russian victory but stalemate and give time for Ukraine and NATO to re-arm and re-organise. That it has not thus far simply encourages the West to continue support and also suggests that the RF is not capable of doing so. Yet. So we nned to wait and see.
Honestly all I think know about the situation is that some politician leaked comments made by the former commander of the 58th in some group chat criticizing the way his superiors were handling the SMO and talking about going over there heads. If that's actually what happened then that's more then enough reason to sack him in my opinion. There is military discipline and a chain of command for a reason. Even he had just gone over his superiors heads to explain his misgivings with their superiors I good understand and even respect. But talking about these things kind off things in that kind off way ie. Bitching in a Facebook group is an unacceptable breach of discipline in my books.
Though I think he was sacked and then made the statement? But clearly there was some dispute beforehand.
That was the impression I got frow the vid too, although the write-up didn't point in that direction. I had to watch it a couple of times to make the time-line fit.
I'd say maybe the poor general had lost some good friends and troops on the front-lines, and popped his mouth of a bit TOO freely at the superiors, who took personal offence and decided to make an example.
Clearly, the main problem was counter-battery fire/abilities. It looks like he was aware of capabilities being moved elsewhere that could have saved his troops. And that's not an easy thing for a decent commander to see, although as SImplicious says he would not have 'the big picture' available.
He mouthed off, got a slap down/demotion, moaned about it to his subordinates PRIVATELY, and a maximalist MP released it out.
It's hard to imagine Popov was happy about that act, considering it turned the whole spat public, thereby much harder to sort out once the heat/rage was off.
Still, if he's that good, there will be spots in the new Corps being created.
And, if NATO doesn't come to any senses, those forces ARE likely to be used in a maximalist manner.
exactly. if you really care about something, it is so hard to just shut up. And the price to pay can be high.
let me add something: I was a US diplomat and I can assure you that the Department does not take sustained critique of a chosen policy well, not at all. In fact, promotion can be withheld for troublemakers, or assign them to some nothing job in nowheresville, although they would NEVER accept that they are exacting retribution. It does have what it called a "dissent channel," where views can be presented that raise serious and weighty questions, but that are not represented in US policy. However, highly unlikely any such suggestions go anywhere but in the shredding machine, and I got a response to mine after THREE MONTHS. When it came, it poured scorn on the dissent, suggesting I should have submitted it to an op-ed page. Really. And you know who probably drafted that was Nuland, when working for Strobe. It reeked of her arrogance. She was a climber then, who knew nothing about Russia, and she remains one today. Although her girth makes climbing hard.
I also read Popov's stating that he spoke frankly and with firmness to mean he was blunt, and probably animated, to superiors. Possibly there was even a shouting match or two. Obviously I don't and can't know, though.
TBF, the news that Vicky "Not a female dog because dogs are nice people" Nuland is not the most compassionate, caring and considerate employer absolutely rocked me to my core.
I'm not even sure I can trust the next step on solid ground. ;)
I suppose if she'd answered instead of Albright, the answer would have been "It's a crying shame, we were hoping to kill more Iraqi children with the sanctions regime".
Or if she'd answered instead of Killary, she'd have said "We came. we saw... I had his heart cut out and sent to me to eat raw like our IS patsies do."
Truly, truly a seminal world leader in ethics and morality.
These people are malignant narcissists and their kind is stacked to the rafters in the collective west's institutions. This toxic mess has sealed the fall of the exceptionalists.
"My personal view is that Russia realised too late in the day that it was involved in a real war with serious powers and should have tried to finish this thing quicker. The delay has not necessarily worked in its favour."
This... A thousand times this.
Mmm. Not sure on that.
Firstly, Putin had to be cagey about the pre-invasion build-up. If NATO had KNOWN he was going to attack, the initial losses would have been enormously higher.
Secondly, the aim was a quick diplomatic solution - which very nearly worked, and would have saved a LOT of heartache, loss, and misery.
Thirdly, BECAUSE it has been drawn out, Russia has had the chance to increase its military capacities, and is now prepared to face NATO entirety - if that becomes necessary. An immediate full-scale invasion could have triggered existing Western black plans - nuke strikes on large formations, fx.
We are in a time where there are NO RESTRICTIONS on Western leaders. None. There are no legal consequences (ICC? "...Are they BROWN?"). There are no political consequences (We can't vote the warmongers out when all parties are identical pro-NATO warmongers). Social consequences? Like regular Brits tutting if they see warmonger Tony B'Liar in the long distance?
Putin and Xi understand this in their bones. So does the Global South.
This time, ALL the Nazi countries are united, openly.
And we are lead by Fundamentalist believers in "Exceptionalism". And "Thousand Year Reichs".
I'm not saying Putin can't make mistakes, or that he hasn't, or this COULDN'T have been run better. Hindsight though...
In some ways, it couldn't have worked out better for Russia and Putin.
They have drawn out NATO and its plans, annhiliated European offensive militarism, rallied the Russian population around them (Helped considerably by the WH drooling cabbage's own pronouncements), united the Global South and China/India behind them, and slowly gained traction with THEIR (More honest) narratives regarding... well, "events".
A hell of a lot less Russians will die from this path, than letting the USA develop and release those bioweapons over Russia's borders.
The best result would have been Minsk implemented. Second best would have been the short SMO ending in successful diplomacy.
But Western leaders bathe in blood.
And that's the truth. They always have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtBKDMN2U4s
Excellent counterpoint
Good points but I don't know about India. They seems to be sucking up the their colonial masters as of late. Indians maybe could be included in "global south" but the elites are pro western and they are all that matter in the caste system India has..
And China... if the whole West can send Ukraine weapons China should be sending weapons (counter battery radars?) but instead sit on their hands like obedient factory slaves they are and they have a target on their back The West is very open about crushing China.. If Russia loses they will be a push over for West IMO despite huge GDP. It's Russia vs the West. End of story. The rest could at best be called neutral.
Yes, M. K. Bhadrakumar at Indian Punchline wasn't happy with Modi's performance at the SCO meeting earlier this month. And the Sultan going off the rails - is he going down Joe's road to dementia? But there you are things don't always go in some linear fashion. China may be assisting in ways that aren't always apparent.
Spot on. Like many people, I get very frustrated at Russia seeming to hang back (FFS, take Odessa, why don't you! :)). However, as you say, the wins just keep on piling up for Putin. The collective West has become so used to slapping around tinpot dictators that it has no answer to someone who can match them punch for punch, and then some.
"I doubt it will fold unless Russia undertakes a series of serious strategic offensives designed to destroy the UAF and take key territory."
Again you are correct. Not a lot of people realize this as history is not taught anymore, but it was not until the 1950's that the Soviet Union was finally able to pacify the UPA. They did not stop fighting after Germany's capitulation. Those awaiting a Ukrainian collapse will be waiting for a long time. Even if they run out of artillery completely, they will carry on fighting with small arms. Again we need to refer to what Erich Koch to understand why the Ukrainians keep fighting.
" Ukrainians are Russians who’ve become like cattle, ready to kill even their own Frau for the idea of a Ukrainian state. They’re ideal fighters against the Red Army, but then they’ll be subject to total sanitation after the war as the most terrible barbarians.”
check Military Summary (Dima), then you will understand why his was removed.
Yes a kind of maskirovka......
If you've spent time in Russia, you will understand why Stalin killed so many people: it's the only way to make a Russian shut up.
Putin is unthreatened, even amused. It's so Russian.
Some of my favourite movies are from ex-Soviets, dark in a cultural way, an acceptance of a normality that requires natural perseverance that doesn't need a name. Of course, I'm but a fly on the wall. Nevertheless, I loved 'The Fool', 'Loveless, 'Petrov's Flu', ' Beanpole', 'Ayka', 'Leviathan', ' Night Watch' and '12'.
a line from Dostoyevsky (cannot recall which novel) that always stays with me is this: if you leave two Russians alone in a room, when you return you will have two political factions.
Reminds me of immortal “Two Ukrainians are a partisan detachment, three Ukrainians are a partisan detachment with a traitor”
I had a friend whose grandmother's family was so contentious, that when her grandmother was born there was a huge fight over what her name should be. In the end, the only thing they could agree on was she was white, so they named her Blanche.
Another Russian saying that I love is "Everyone goes mad in their own way". That certainly applies to Western society right now.
Ha yeah I hear you. I was there back in 2005. Barely slept at on the train from Moscow to Ufa spent the whole taking with random people and drinking samogon. Good times.
I don't think they are going to arrest the General in the Duma who took it upon himself to reveal what was a private conversation between friends and fighting comrades. He wanted to explain why he was removed, defend his motives, encourage his fellow fighters. It should have stayed private, but this is the age of the damned electronic immediacy where your every thought and feeling can be snatched and made public. General's bad.
Canadian soldiers are not the soldiers of WWI and WWII. After neutering Canadian Special Forces, girly-men are the only kind allowed to fill the once-effective Canadian Armed Forces.
Known for "punching above her weight" diplomatically Canada is but another Washington lapdog, with a leader whose eye is ever searching to others of his ilk for their approval.
Rather than taking the Pearson/Chretien approach and standing up against U.S. Adventurism, we now have a morally weak, intellectually stunted B grade showman.
An embarrassment to the 70% of Canadians who didn't vote for and don't want this POS representing them.
The apple fell very far from the tree when it comes to Pierre Trudea and Justin Trudeau.
Castro is his father. Pierre Trudeau was a cucked fool.
Castro was a really tough guy , though.
What utter nonsense! Justin looks nothing like Fidel, but definitely resembles Pierre. Trudeau Sr. and Castro were friends, and I believe Castro was an honest and honourable man. Neither of them were fools. Why slander the dead to satisfy your rage?
The circumstantial 'evidence' ie similarities in likeness, the historical timeline, the two families knowing each other, the fact Fidel was a womaniser and Margaret was a trollop that couldn't keep a dick out of her minge, and Fidelito stating that Justin was his half brother, all make a compelling case.
Anyway if true I'd reckon Fidel would be thoroughly ashamed of Justin Turdrow as he serves the people and "ideals" Fidel spent his life opposing.
LOL what triggered you Karen?
Fidel's legitimate son, the one that suicided, admitted that Justin was his step brother.
Castro may have been honest but so what, any man has sexual urges, and Fidel loved fucking women. His sexual appetite was legendary. And Pierre's wife was a promiscous slapper that fucked her way around the world.
As for Justin just compare the photos of him and Fidel. Justin looks nothing like Trudeau.
Anyway Karen, a mind is like a parachute, it works best when open.
https://radiopatriot.net/2022/02/16/deep-dive-is-fidel-castro-the-father-of-justin-trudeau/
Unfortunately we are not given alternatives to vote for who are appreciatively better!
Only half-drunk? Lightweight. ;O)
"Over-advertised junk" is what that soldier in the last video said. Applies to American ego too. I'm sick of their politics and the world getting infected. No mask stops the smell of neocon bullshit.
Most media seems to have missed French General Michel Yakovleff's revealing ranting about NATO and Ukraine on France24 earlier this week. He was in a "debate" with other NATO loyalists and a minor politician. I posted the transcript at https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/ukraine-will-be-a-problem-member
Regards "ungodly levels of destruction for the AFU", there was another sign of the Media facing truth. It happened on the Wall Street Journal. Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt (Ret.) first lied that Bakhmut has flipped between Ukraine and Russia numerous times, I think to increase the possibility that Ukraine could split Russia's land bridge to Crimea. But that was carrot propaganda before the stick of Russian defence which, with props on table, he showed to be formidable, almost insurmountable. I've timed the video for that moment - https://youtu.be/zMZ58anSFF4?t=287
"He was in a "debate" with other NATO loyalists and a minor politician. I posted the transcript at https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/ukraine-will-be-a-problem-member"
So, what he is saying is that there will be "cessation" of hostilities; and when there is "resumption" of hostilities, Ukraine will suddenly "one day" became a member of Nato, without having to go through due process.
If they think they have to fool the Russians once again, they should at least avoid revealing it in public. Why should Russia agree to a "cessation" of hostilities if Ukraine will instantaneously or automatically become a Nato member whenever it decides to "resume" hostilities. Ukraine could agree to a ceasefire today and be entitled "to demand" Nato membership when it resumes hostilities tomorrow.
It boggles the mind ... The collective West has brooded and brooded for days or months to come up with a way of getting Ukraine into Nato on the sly without the Russians noticing.
The West's degeneration is manifest in the intellectual depravity of its leaders.
The main problem is that Ukraine, as a NATO member, would have the power to end cessation so that it pulled NATO into WW3.
Why does Russia always shows that she is so afraid or article 5 of NATO ? That shows weakness and encourages aggression against Russia on all fronts Russia is always waiting for NATO action to give reaction rather than doing action on her own she does not even know what she wants!
curios where are you getting that information- 'afraid', etc. Russia never said or shown it, they want to limit the scope of the conflict - yes. However, no article 5,6, 537 or whatever is some sort of stupid level 80 magical shield that blocks all damage. Besides, did you actually read it? What exactly does it offer Ukraine that it does not have now? It requires absolutely nothing from NATO members besides 'assistance' that each country can determine what it is. I.e. posting an angry twitter message is definitely sufficient assistance that say Spain will give Ukraine and fulfill its article 5 'obligations' . Never understood this stupid fetish of NATO/article whatever. if you want to fight -> fight. if you dont -> dont , the excuses dont matter.
Yes I saw that, I have By pass pay walls addon's which allow you to see 'most of the worlds /western papers. Really it's a chore the level of deceit is overwhelming. The stupid General (in the WSJ) had a oversized TOY TANK and drove it over a map. The generals biggest theater was when the Western Tank goes over a tank trap coming out of the trap it exposes the 'soft under belly' of the tank. Like wow. So many tank destroyed videos and none have shown that General Dipshit. So being on the east coast of Australasia ( and ain't they brainwashed here ) we get a full on twofer Russia and China.
His goal seemed to be the presentation of excuse. I find that extremely interesting. Sure, tanks could be taken out that way but to leave out that they haven;t got that far adds question to his purpose. Surely a General can afford a longer coffee table to show artillery, thermobaric warheads etc.
Australia, where almost every South African I knew wanted to emigrate to. Not enough good media describing your corner of the world but I see that your invincible economy has some wobbles. Imagine if your government had started fighting for Julian Assange earlier. I wonder at the purpose of delay, imagining nuclear subs etc.
Vilnius seems to have become the most over-hyped event of the year.
Is the USA finally looking for an exit?
They get Sweden and Finland, a base in Poland, add something to the Baltic States, and lie that they have made the world safer against future Russian aggression.
They could use a failed Ukraine as a marketing tool against 'evil' Russia whilst further lying that they had supported Ukraine as best as they could but 'brave' Zelensky, no matter how hard he tried, failed. They'd be happy to do that after their ego couldn't handle his criticism.
Zelensky escapes assassination by heading to his dacha in Italy or wherever.
As Russia keeps learning and adapting military strategy, so bankers and corporates will do the same for profit. If the West can force a Korean-styled line between Russia and Ukraine, their weapons dealers will make another fortune. And whatever is left of Ukraine will be on sale at bargain prices.
Russia will do whatever it can to get territory so that it can finance its defence. Then it will turn the occupied coast into one of the best parts of Russia, telling the world that Russia is cool.
This is just another thought as I constantly grapple with the insanity of this war and its body parts scattered by landmines in the forests and mud of what was once a beautiful country with Slavic people who, for the most part, got along.
Ukraine is evidence of the power of misinformation, and how we humans, at least most of us, are easily manipulated. If it could happen to Ukraine, it could happen to us.
Now to take a big breath and watch those "grisly" videos because we must remind ourselves of the horror of war.
Some in the USA are desperately looking for the off-ramp. They never DREAMED it would go so far! which tells us something about their vision and insight. The most important fact in this regard is that Foreign Affairs, the pseudo-scientific outlet for the Council on Foreign Relations, the same journal that pushed the idea of the exceptional US as the sole ruler of the world, now is allowing the "pro-peace" viewpoint. Of course, it is still stuffed with US nonsense, but it is calling for negotiations. As if. The negotiations now can only come on Russian terms. The US threw away the chance for a much more reasonable agreement than it will get now regarding NATO and its intentions in Ukraine and the other nations surrounding Russia that are not members. The off-ramp now will come at a cost that will ensure no budding rediscovery of friendship betweem the US and Russia in the aftermath.
Sadly, everything you say is true. It's a world of shit, hypocrisy and dead people for ego and profit.
You adopted someone admirable name. I appreciate Norma Brown's words from 2013:
" I never thought the US would replace Russia as the ugly arrogant ideologue contemptuous of other peoples’ rights. But here we are. At home individual rights and religious rights and all kinds of other rights are under simultaneous attack; and abroad we attack the rights of other countries to settle their own problems. Then we’ll try to stuff our own culture down the throats of the conquered, and expect statues erected to our heroic actions. And when we have a Benghazi or Christians under extreme attack in Egypt or a 9/11 – our government will be profoundly saddened and shocked. I don’t know what folly our government is planning in Syria, but one thing is for sure: it won’t be to our credit and it won’t be to our advantage. The hounds of war are loose and at the world’s throat."
If it had been 2021, Kosovo could've been replaced with Syria, and Syria with Russia.
The same bloody wheel spins and spins yet the majority moan, raise a flag, moan, raise a flag, and so on...
Much truth. I would modify the part of exporting culture though. How do you export a culture that you are destroying daily by bastardizing every institution and creating an environment that promotes tribalism and conflict.
I almost agree but will play devil's advocate.
The difference between the culture America had versus the McDonalds-M4 culture it is now?
I'm 100% for gay rights but have to concede this point - https://youtu.be/rHtolgojMYM
Gay rights....YES! but Hedonistic worship of everything...NO!
Especially exceptional worship of oneself.
It really makes me wonder how badly certain money-laundering operations are going. It went from "hands off, no invade, Ukraine is OUR money pit" to "sabre-rattling is profitable" to "oh shit you're destroying everything" really quickly.
Sorry ,that evil entity is British English invention and is infiltrated by English spies, doing the work of pirate English race than for USA .
Quote "The most important fact in this regard is that Foreign Affairs, the pseudo-scientific outlet for the Council on Foreign Relations, the same journal that pushed the idea of the exceptional US as the sole ruler of the world, now is allowing the "pro-peace" viewpoin"
I'm afraid the Brits are, like the Americans, the heroes of my youth and the enemies of my old age. I could never have imagined this denigration of the American idea and its Hollywoodization.
I don't see any reason why Biden would want to end the war, it's not a major voting issue and either way the GOP isn't going to put up much of a threat in 2024 (Trump won't be winning that's for sure and they don't really have anyone else at this point). No, they will just keep shipping over the gear as long as Ukraine holds together as a political entity. All this stuff just means more money for the weapons companies to replace it, no reason to stop.
The war is failing so they either need to end it or create a new narrative. Ukraine helped them move on from their cruelly catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan (shame on humankind for how quickly that was forgotten). They'll likely figure something out.
If the USA can't manage the PR regards Ukraine, the Republicans need to blame Biden.
Biden is always one word away from a stroke. Can't see how he runs again. His health may not survive it.
I've no skin in choosing between Democrats or Republicans, and consider both awful, so no viable option is good for the world.
Trump seems to be heading for a crash - the real power in the USA is out to get him (with the shitty things he did just an excuse).
The only good thing is that there are great fringe candidates who, this time, they'll be unable to stop raising important talking points (of which Ukraine will be one).
I'm not a seer, and have expressed my doubts about Trump's survival, but imagine these two scenarios: Harris as interim President running next year, versus a Trump/Kennedy partnership. All black mirror to me.
People have no idea what is going on, they just accept the headlines. Biden has cognitive issues but he isn't dying and can easily serve another term if needed. I don't see anything changing except maybe quantity of weapons will decrease possibly.
Great update.
I think that firing generals is the norm in any real war. That does not apply to the colonial policing actions that the US has engaged in over the past half century or so. After all, during 1944-5 all the British, Canadian and US generals seemed to be in perpetual conflict with each other. Montgomery fired Dempsey, for example. Even in Burma there was an almost successful attempt to get Slim fired in 1945, possibly the most effective British commander of the entire war. As ever, there are two (or even more) sides to these stories.
Vilnius will go down as a milestone on the path of the US empire’s decline. Not quite analogous to the 1956 Suez debacle but it is getting close. Give it a few years and the US will be scaling back its overseas bases. It is coming. The only question is how long it will be until they face reality and beat the Retreat from Europe and the Retreat from Asia; plus how much damage they create in the process.
Apologies I do not mean Dempsey. Rather, he and Montgomery fired Bucknall and Erskine after / during Caen. There is always a blame game!
The bigger the bloody nose the US gets in this war the faster her collapse will be and the sooner we can send in the special rendition flights to arrest every last war criminal in the West, ..... and boy there are tens of thousands of them including every last person working in the "defence industries" for these murderous western regimes. "I was only following orders" didn't wash in Nuremberg and it won't wash now.
Comparing this Russian Ukraine war to the evils of Nazi Germany and the sickness of what the Nazis did to normal people is reprehensible.
Stop being childish, take your "reprehensible" and stick it where the sun don't shine. We are adults here. I am comparing the evils of NATO and the US over the last 70 years with what those on trial at Nuremberg did and remember half the criminals from WW2 just walked and were never put on trial, Roosevelt , Stalin and Churchill to name only three. The American in charge of the bombing of Hamburg I think it was said to his wife the day after, when he had seen the photographs, that he was glad we were going to win this war and she asked why and he said because we committed a war crime yesterday. Where was the trial of him and his men for war crimes that he was honest enough to say on the day, not decades later, that he and they had committed. It never happened because as with WW1 only Germans could be the bad guys under the Nuremberg court's remit. And the US and NATO have morphed into an evil far worse than that since then.
You seem to have lost you way on that last sentence. As you stated up front "...half the criminals from WW2 just walked....".
I think it would be a bit more accurate to state that any war criminal with a few dollars of information or knowledge was secreted to other places, while a few of the worthless masochists were offered to the 'people' for public retribution.
I agree. It is extreme stress, and personalities clash and arguments are sparked that have consequences. I've popped off my mouth more than once in my life and usually I got put back in my box straight away.
It's interesting and a little concerning to hear about all of these leadership changes and concerns at the high level in the MoD. I wonder how the US Military leadership would have looked if the internet and social media were around in 1942. My guess is Patton wouldn't have commanded an army by the end of the Italy campaign with social media leaks.
I'll leave an optimistic option that maybe this relieved general will be moved to one of the newly formed armies for an upcoming Russian offensive.
As for growing pains, logistics and daily routine are huge issues for new armies. My uncle used to be a pilot in the Navy and said there is nothing more complicated or hard than managing the logistics of a carrier for a deployment. He said it's something that might take the Chinese decades to perfect if they actually want to project power outside the south china sea. Russia seems to be getting a ton of experience in this right now.
The Chinese seem to be rather prudent and practical to me. If anyone can handle the logistics they can ... AliExpress notwithstanding haha.
Maybe but they cut corners all the time. You couldn't pay me to go into a Chinese made skyscraper for example. It wouldn't shock me for them to have a carrier sink because the welding subcontractor used a cheap knock off soldering material and cheap bolts.
Looks to me like we're starting to see more direct fire kills - 30mm autocannons and tank shots taking out AFU light armour. Not sure what that means, could just be sample bias in what turns up as video. Could also mean Ukraine has pushed more into the defensive lines and is engaging armoured forces directly rather than being held up among the light infantry screening forces.
I think the mosquito attacks by Ukr were covered in a recent episode of Simplicus, yes? They most definitely are engaging more using hapless Uke soldiers. They rush trenches, which Russians already left so as not to be overrun, and in which the Russkies left behind a mine or a few. I've only seen one vid of it and it was absolutely ghastly. Of course, if the mine(s) didn't finish the Ukes, the Russian gunners surely already have the coordinates of their own trenches.
Suicide missions!
Yes they were covered in an earlier post here, and elsewhere. And I've seen those awful videos too. I saw one where it was clearly a claymore facing down the length of the trench, horrible.
I don't think that explains an increase in direct fire weapons though, unless those mosquito attacks have allowed Ukraine to sacrifice their way through the screens to reach the actual defense lines. I haven't seen any maps that showed attacks at the defense lines we saw on satellite images, maybe I missed them.
One way it could tie together is if Russia was responding to the mosquito attacks by pushing armoured units up into the grey zone to hunt down the infiltration groups.
Shell hunger, they use what they got and they have a ton of old tank ammo. The tanks may be obsolete but their shells still work in a pinch.
I can understand why Putin would take a practical approach to the Wagner issue but Russian pilots were killed and surely this can't be swept under the rug. Do Russians see Prigozhin as responsible for the deaths? How will it play with the public if no one is punished for it?
I would imagine when the West is totally vanquished there will be a night of the long knives played out in the courts for all to see and those responsible will end their days in prison.
Exactly. When has Putin ever left something unanswered or unpunished? He simply chooses his time and method to best suit Russia's needs.
Yeah, and he doesn't boast about it, just delivers the retribution and no one else seems to know what any devastating attack is payback for what offense.
Nothing goes unanswered.
Did you see it with your own eyes?
No, I'm not Russian that's why I asked
Big G, Prigozyn made it up. No pilots were downed, it was maskirovka. No-one's going to be punished for something that never happened.
;)
Has it been confirmed that no one was killed?
It's been confirmed that Prigozyn is still running around. And no R-AF marshalls are screaming blue murder about this.
And he IS an excellent troll - almost at Trump professionalism!
I draw the dots as they appear to me.
No, I'm not sitting in R-AF Headquarters, moving the abacus of lost planes around.
It is, strictly speaking, only my private opinion.
But he IS running around freely. And apparently completely unafraid of R-AF retals.
It certainly would explain why he's back in Russia and talking to Putin and I know others have proposed similar ideas but without the public understanding that fact then we're still left with the same problem, unless the truth is revealed. If you're right I still want to know how the Russian public view the situation. What do you think was the aim behind the deception?
I made a short list when it happened, not exhaustive:
"Exposed sleeper agents.
Triggered NATO's 'coup trap' prematurely.
Prepared the territorial defences for any surprise visit by western mercenaries wearing Russian uniforms.
Got the enemy propaganda systems to MASSIVELY boost the very Russian commander who just took Bakhmut.
Massively embarrased the western corporate media.
Split Wagner, and the blooded and experienced troops will now move to the RF directly, while what remains in Europe will move to Belorus to scare the Poles off from doing anything stupid.
Revealed any Wagner or RF internal NATO corruption.
And psychologically prepare the country to FEEL as though it had successully rebuffed a foreign invasion - even though it never actually happened."
Annoyingly, I'd saved it as a graphic, so had to type all that back in, as there's no way to post it up. >_<
Great article.
A good thing to remember though, is that in Russian structures "retirements/etc" have a far more flexible errr... Connotation. The MoD and the Army is as an opaque structure as it can be, so there really is no telling what's going on. Popov might return shortly, that's what Im saying.
But yes. The NATO humiliation was glorious. There's no more big things for Pukeraine to look forward to, as even the useless F-16s become a distant prospect.
Counteroink had now failed, and with only about 2,5 months of possible activity left before soil becomes unusable for large armor spearheads, its evident that no goals announced by the puke command are reachable.
Consider this - the puke capability now has diminished by about 30 000 combat troops, and in tech, by an estimated 30%. New armor shipments will not replenish these losses presumably until late August, in which time they'll probably suffer another 30% loss.
Ultimately this means that ukes will not restore combat readiness to the level of the FIRST days of the counteroink... Probably never by this point, which makes all further plans completely obsolete.
Many would call that cooked. I, having closely watched the war since the first hour of it and making my own analysis, estimate that with about 300k KIA khohols at the current point, thibnk that it would take around 150k more till Usrain suffers full military breakdown. If the current tempo of force attrition continues, 15-18k KIA a month, it would take further 8-10 months. If it slows down some - then a year.
However, surprises might be had and with a dire situation on the tech and munitions front, ukes can break maybe in half a year.
Upvote for "counteroink" haha
Is " force attrition" taking into account the increasing number of desertions?
Geezus... not a fan of finding out we're the baddies. Liked the last video. Enlightening.
Not you or me, BethanyAnne. We have been hijacked by the criminals who run our countries.
Are there still young Russians that think the West is great? They need to come here and see what a shithole ALL Western countries have become in the last 20 years.
Pardon me sir, I know what you mean, totally understandable, and so I'd really like to say that I think "the west" still have some regions worth to visit.
I really, really like this small French village in this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7TwvBsfsAw&pp=ygUVc21hbGwgZnJlbmNoIHZpbGxhZ2Ug
We should not forget that there are real people with real life who live outside "the city", and don't really want to know what politician did in the city. If they want to burn the city, go ahead, but please leave us peaceful people alone. This is my view, 7 years of my experience after moving out, best decision in my life.
Yes there are many nice places still but there are fewer and fewer in the West every single year and all by design whereas in Russia there are more and more nice places every year.
The Western cultures and amenities are in collapse mode and Russian cultures and amenities are in growth mode. I just wish that Russian youth would get their heads out of Western propaganda and see the improved reality around them.
I live in a small mountain town in BC, Canada, and have friends and relatives in small towns and cities in several other provinces. My town is close to USA border (Washington, Idaho, and Montana) and I have often visited small towns in those states (pre-covid). None of the small cities and rural areas I have visited in Canada or NW USA are 'shitholes', nor are most of the people unkind or unfriendly.
While our politicians, business leaders, and media continue to degrade everything they touch, many people are quietly getting on with their lives and helping each other.
There are plenty of small places around where I live that are perfectly lovely and are virtually unchanged over the last 20 or 30 years but these areas are now having criminals, i.e. illegal economic migrant,s bussed in and the only reason many of those economic immigrants aren't staying and destroying the place is the fact the weather isn't to their liking so they head down South as soon as they can. It will come to your towns too and if you don't believe that you have your head in the sand. I never said people weren't friendly, people with their head in the sand are usually very friendly until they see what is happening and then they aren't. I am saying that if young Russians are still thinking that the West has it good they have it wrong as we are part way through a planned destruction of everything that made the West great and distance from Ottawa or DC won't save you.
I don't think Canada has as many illegal immigrants as USA does. Certainly there are many more people from other countries and cultures here than there were 20 years ago, there are many more people from Middle East and Africa now - mostly fleeing US/NATO wars, but what crime there is in this area is mostly perpetrated by white Canadians, not recent immigrants.
Canadians are monarchists who fought for German scum. May whatever jewelry wearing scum you worship rot. No wonder Canadians give up their country so easily. They have no identity anyways except they bowed down to fucking German monarchs.
Still not a good look for General officers pulling this kind of Roman civil war stunt. They all should STFU and get on with it. This destroys morale on Russian side and is used by AFU to raise morale on theirs.
I loved that last video, so true.
Thank you for yet another superb analysis.
Only two minor things to add:
1) Ukraine's naval mines didn't just affect Turkey but were also found in Romanian waters.
2) There are exactly 2 ships left in Odessa which were cleared by Russia for the grain deal, 1 that is loaded and about to depart, and a second that's still empty. So far, Russia has not let any NEW ships proceed north from Turkey, so Russia is ready to end the "deal" at a moment's notice, if its demands aren't met.
3) Unexploded cluster mines don't just affect kids who pick them up, thinking they're toys. They also explode when adults walk on them, sometimes decades later, or engage in agricultural work. Just ask Cambodia, which is STILL LOSING PEOPLE 50 YEARS LATER after being illegally bombed by the United States.
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501146548/cambodia-records-40-landmine-erw-casualties-in-first-eight-months
Sheesh, you're doing it again! That man didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought a teenage prostitute. Or he bought a teenage girl who was sold to him for sex. Trafficking is a bullshit word they made up. The real word is "pimping." There are no pimps anymore. They all turned into "traffickers." The man who sold her is a pimp. Is he a trafficker? We don't know. He's only a trafficker if he held her prisoner and forced her to work as a prostitute.
Actually it's worse than that. Suppose I buy a prostitute like lots of men do. I haven't done this in decades, but probably most men do at some point. Suppose she happens to be underage whether I'm aware of that or not. Suppose I have sex with this underage prostitute. I've now "trafficked" her by the mere act of having sex with her. Idiotic or what? Johns are johns. They're called "guys who buy prostitutes." Johns are not "traffickers." C'mon, that's insane.
Sex trafficking is all about sex slavery. Girls and women are taken by pimps, kept prisoner, forced to work as prostitutes, and not allowed to leave on penalty of being beaten or killed. If you're being held prisoner and forced to work as a prostitute with no way to leave, you're being trafficked. If none of those things are true, you aren't being "trafficked" for God's sake. A lot of feminists now use the word "trafficking" to describe all prostitution. All prostitutes are somehow or other being "trafficked." A lot of prostitutes work for themselves. I guess they're being trafficked too? In that case they must be "trafficking" themselves? See how insane this gets.
This guy didn't "traffic" anyone. He bought an underage prostitute. The crime ought to be "Procuring a Minor for Prostitution." And they can put him in prison for all I care! That's not my beef here. I'm sick of this sensationalistic, moral panic language.
Please do not contribute to this sex hysteria the feminists and sex fascists are poisoning our society with.
Thank you! This has been a PSA!
Or perhaps something that has been happening for years but has not been acknowledged or even seen as a problem is no longer socially acceptable?
"However the things people do talk and care about, like child grooming, have been ignored by the wider media class."
I think people have gotten hysterical about this too and it's turned into one more idiot moral panic.
I grew up in the 70's and 80's. That term "grooming" was only and ever used to refer to what child molesters did to convince little kids to have sex with them. You see, kids don't know what sex is! I sure didn't. They have zero sex drive until puberty, so they're in the dark about the whole thing. Which is why they have to be talked into it.
Once someone has a sex drive, in a sense they are an adult as they can now seek out sex with other humans as prerogative based on the needs of themselves as an organism. I really do not think you can "groom" a teenage girl. They're too sophisticated for that.
Or a grown woman. We are now told that not only teenagers but grown women can and are being "groomed." I had no idea that grown women were little children. However, feminism infantalizes women and says they have no agency and therefore nothing that happens is their fault. Women never DO anything. Instead they are simply victims or recipients of agency: things only and ever HAPPEN TO women.
Clearly teenage girls and grown women can be SEDUCED and perhaps teenage girls are easier to seduce than women, except that having a lot of experience with both (the former when I was quite young), I would never agree with that. Teenage girls are notoriously difficult and it was always a lot easier to get a women to give it up than a girl, who are notoriously fickle and worried about protecting their image.
Society has the idea that adults seducing teens below a certain age is exploitative. The teens are judged to be naive and the adult is seen as exploiting their lack of experience. This is the reason for the AOC and statutory rape laws. I don't necessarily object to either of these things, but we really need to protect minors from stat rape laws, and I don't want to see any minors arrested for the crime of having sex.
"There's been a significant push to protect abusers from prosecution precisely on the grounds of "social acceptance".
Is this really true?
Touched a nerve?
Calm down, you'll have a stroke.
I think you will find "a lot of feminists" use the term "sex workers" to describe prostitution. A 14 year old 'learning disabled' (mentally impaired? learning disabled covers a lot of ground, but obviously causing concern for her parents) child who is being held on a military base (was she being 'lent out' or 'sold' to other marines besides the one who was holding her?) is not a cut and dried case of prostitution.
"Sex worker" implies a choice made by - presumably - an adult woman (or man). Trafficked implies a lack of choice. Does a 14 year old qualify as an adult making a choice....especially if she is mentally lacking?
Do most men buy sex from prostitutes? Some men do, but most? I know men tend to have much loser morals around sex generally, but I doubt that most men frequent prostitutes. And men who buy sex from teens and children are morally reprehensible.
I'm quite certain that a majority of men will buy a prostitute at least once in their lives. Curiosly, the wealthier the man is, the more likely he is to do so!
"Trafficked implies a lack of choice. Does a 14 year old qualify as an adult making a choice....especially if she is mentally lacking?"
Yes, I don't agree with this wack definition. I'm quite certain that a lot of teenage prostitutes are working for themselves, though I've only spoken with one woman who worked as a prostitute while a minor and she was being "trafficked."
If the minor teen girl is being held prisoner in any way, say by her pimp, she's absolutely being trafficked. Trafficking has always meant "sex slavery" - women who are basically imprisoned and forced to work as prostitutes for a pimp and threatened with injury or death if they leave. You have to prove this sort of sex slavery for a crime to be trafficking IMHO. The notion that all teen girl prostitutes are being "trafficked" is ludicrous, and it's an abuse of language for hysterical reasons to perpetuate a moral panic.
"And men who buy sex from teens and children are morally reprehensible."
Maybe so, but what's the crime? How about Procuring Sex from a Minor? And if you knew she was underage, you can be imprisoned for that as far as I am concerned. I just don't think it's "trafficking" to buy a whore.
Teens means 18 or 19 years old? What's wrong with buying an 18 or 19 year old prostitute? I've met a number of men who did that, often more than once.
I've talked to many, many men who have bought prostitutes maybe hundreds of times in total. Not one ever admitted to buying an underage prostitute. I've never seen an underage prostitute, and I've only met one who worked as one. I don't think this sort of thing is very common.
How many men actually purchase sex from little girls aged under 13? Never met a man who did that and never met a girl who was prostituted out as a little girl, and I've talked to, seen, and read about a number of women who got molested as girls. I met one just the other day. The molestation started at age three! And you really don't want to know her opinion on getting molested.
You may be right, as to most men having bought sex, I do not have information one way or the other. Even saying I doubt it to be true is only an opinion, not backed up in any way. I do know that most men seem to be much more obsessed with sex than most women, so it may well be true.
I agree that 'trafficking' is used pretty loosely, and buying sex from an 'underage' girl or boy is not the same as trafficking them. In some cultures 14 yr old girls and boys are seen as adults, and take on adult responsibilities, but I suspect that in those cultures there is both family and society support for these young people.
In our culture, a 14 yr old girl (or boy) is not experienced enough to be able to freely choose prostitution, and an adult who takes advantage of their inexperience, or need, to buy sex from them should be stopped....ideally - probably totally unrealistic in a culture like ours tho'.
In our society, we do have a legal definition of adulthood, based on age. Most 18 yr olds are considered adults in many areas, though often not when it comes to choosing to drink alcohol, use recreational drugs, or vote. Is a person who is not considered mature enough to make those choices really mature enough to sell themselves sexually?
About this particular story, there is too much that is unknown to really judge if she was "trafficked". The girl was underage, which means sex with her is illegal given the man is an adult. It was not clear how competent she is mentally (outside of her youth), not whether she was coerced or free to leave, or whether it was only the one marine who used her, or several.
I agree with everything you say here!
"In our culture, a 14 yr old girl (or boy) is not experienced enough to be able to freely choose prostitution"
I would only add that of course she is able to freely choose prostitution in a psychological sense. I've talked to women who were having sex with older men, not just one but many of them, from age 13-14 on, and I've read accounts from others. It's quite clear to me that they knew what they were doing. Also they all defend their behavior to this day and insist that they were not harmed.
However, legally speaking, we say that she is not LEGALLY able to choose to become a prostitute. We say this because she is naive, and we think men will take advantage of her inexperience and exploit her. I don't see how we will ever legalize minors practicing prostitution. I'm not sure if it's legal anywhere.
So there are different levels of agency here, psychological and legal.
"Is a person who is not considered mature enough to make those choices really mature enough to sell themselves sexually?"
I think 18-20 year olds ought to be able to sell their bodies legally. Of course in the US it's illegal not only for that age group but for anyone to sell their body for sex except maybe in Nevada.
Thank you for the pleasant conversation. It's an extremely emotional topic and few people are able to discuss it without turning into human volcanoes. Appreciate your calm self-control.
I think this is now a side thread, so we are not hi-jacking the main thread and it's OK to respond again. I think that sex is a super charged issue, partly because we have inherited a lot of attitudes that could use some re-thinking. Above you said, "I don't want to see any minors arrested for the crime of having sex" and I absolutely agree. In this province two minors having sex is not criminal. I think the age difference has to be more than 4 years before social services gets involved. But a minor having sex with an adult can be prosecuted - the adult, not the minor.
When a young and inexperienced person starts selling sex, I think they do not know enough to protect themselves from consequences. Teen girls (and boys) have contracted AIDS, herpes, and other STDs because they did not demand that partners use a condom, or even know that they could and should demand it. I have more than one young friend to whom this has happened.
If we as a culture and society are going to be open to "sex workers" going into business at increasingly young ages, then we need to be ensuring that all the information about how to protect themselves from not only pregnancy but also disease is easily and openly available. And maybe anyone who has sex without protection and disclosure when they have an STD needs to be held criminally liable.
You are right that as soon as a person is physically able to have sex, and feel sexual attraction, there is no way to prevent sexual experimentation, or prostitution - although I have reservations about the ability to freely choose prostitution at a young age, I had friends who did sell sex as teenagers, and you say it is not uncommon, so my doubts may be unfounded.
But until women who sell sex are not looked down upon as 'whores' and prostitution is a respectable life/career choice, I hesitate to see it as not exploiting young people....whether they think they are making the choice freely or not. I am glad we have some laws aiming to protect 'under age' children from sexual exploitation.
Oh I absolutely agree with the laws against minors prostituting themselves! We can't allow that as a society. Hell, we can't even agree that minor teens are sexual beings and have a right to a full sexual life, including with others. As I said, I wonder if minor teen prostitution is legal anywhere!
If we are going to prosecute johns, we have to prove that they knew she was underage. You also get into some very weird situations such as that with Prince Andrew, where his sex with Virginian Giuffre was perfectly legal unless and until he decided to pay her $5,000 for it, in which case he was guilty of "sex trafficking." See how dumb that is. So sex is just fine as long as you don't pay the woman, then it's illegal. Hey I like this idea! Can we extend it to grown women please?
Same with Matt Gaetz. He and Greenberg had no idea that that 17 year old girl was underage. She had a fake ID. She was also no babe in the woods. She'd already had sex with half the men in Florida (and a lot of the women) by the time she hooked up with Gaetz, etc. She was an escort in business for herself. Which obviously means she was trafficking herself! Yes Gaetz and Greenberg had sex with her, yes they flew her across state lines (violating the evil Mann Act which must be repealed), yes they paid for plane tickets for her.
At some point her cover was blown and Gaetz, etc. realized she was a minor. They called her on the carpet, chewed her out, and cut off all contact with her. The responsible thing to do. For acting responsibly, Gaetz is looking at sex trafficking charges! Further, Greenberg went down on a federal RICO prosecution. Apparently, Greenberg's group of men buying whores was actually a criminal gang or a mafia, the purpose of the gang being to buy whores! Ok, that's just ridiculous and it's a total abuse of the RICO law.
You can get Herpes with a condom easily.
In this province two minors having sex is not criminal. I think the age difference has to be more than 4 years before social services gets involved.
We could easily just say it's not illegal for minors below the AOC to have sex, as Scotland has done. The hysterics will scream but I can answer those rejoinders.
What about child molestation? Minors don't engage in a lot of actual molesting of little kids. That tends to be an adult thing. If some minor is already pedophlic and doing that, maybe we can prosecute him. What happens is older brothers under 13 and teenage boys having sex with their younger daughters.
The two cases I'm familiar with involved a 5-8 year old girl and her teenage brother and a 4-8 year old girl and her 8-12 year old brother. The latter says she enjoyed it, was sorry it ended, and would like to start it up again.
In these cases, I think Social Services needs to get involved to try to get this boy to stop having sex with his sister. In the latter case, it's too minors, but this has gone beyond childhood sex play and I don't think it's healthy. Childhood sex play obviously should not be prosecuted. I work as a counselor and many of my clients engaged in this behavior. If it's a teenage boy, he needs to be told to quit having sex with his little sister. The parents need to get involved. If he won't stop messing with his kid sister, it's logical to separate the boy and put him in foster care. So there's good motivation for the parents to read him the riot act.
Honestly, consensual sex between siblings, even when it veers into "molestation" is not particularly harmful to the girl. I think it's because he's another minor like she is. What causes harm is either coercion or a little girl getting molested by an adult, and even that results in serious long term harm only 23% of the time.
"And maybe anyone who has sex without protection and disclosure when they have an STD needs to be held criminally liable."
You've opened up a gigantic can of worms here. The gay community especially is against that because this behavior is rampant in their community. I see why people lie. I have a friend who has Herpes and he discloses to his female potential partners even though he's not contagious and a lot of them just take off.
Teenage minor prostitution is apparently fairly common. It's just that I've never personally heard of it. I have known women who worked and work as prostitutes and I've even talked to them recently. Never met one who started work as a minor so I don't think it's REAL common.
I think we agree on most everything though!
🙏🏼 Simplicius ... Popov situation has me intrigued 🤔
Re: Popov
This entire situation - including Prigozhin nonsense - looks like nothing more than the usual weeding out of officers in the first stages of any real conflict. The general theme is promotion of warriors over bean counters, but there are also the insubordinate and/or out of control vs. the professional.
Not the least bit clear to me there is a problem. Nor are bean counter types not useful as well - the question is the roles they are in.
Re: overall military situation in Ukraine
The video selection seems to show that the Russian military is basically sniping armored vehicles and groups of soldiers. This implies near air supremacy at the front since it looks like a number of the shots were taken from a plane. There were also a couple of apparent drone dropped grenades/small bombs.
Is the mass artillery bombardments of Artemovsk, 4 months ago, over? Or simply a function of the videos shown? Or a function of Ukraine basically attacking in bits and pieces?
Overall, an excellent writeup as has been your consistent pattern.
What a mess. I'm convinced nobody will win this.
Care to make a wager?
Nobody "wins" wars, except the financiers and arms dealers. Everybody else bleeds and dies, and says goodbye to loved ones, or fears escalation.
However, NATO certainly looks like it's LOST this one.
As Micron said: "NATO is braindead".
"NATO is braindead".
As are the EU and UK