Contents: Offensive Sundry News One of the latest developments I’ve been following over the past few days is the continued clarification of the Kakhovka reservoir situation around the ZNPP nuclear plant. Several new alarming photos and videos have been released showing the drastically reduced water levels therein. The most striking of which is this video showing the view of the ZNPP plant itself across the entire now wholly dried out reservoir from the vantage of Nikopol on the other side:
My current hypothesis is that all the brigades formed for the grand offensive are actually undermanned, perhaps significantly. The dam had to go because if the VSU drew on forces from Kherson/Nikolaev to reinforce the offensive, then Kherson would be very vulnerable to a Russian counter. (Whether the destruction was explosive or purposely overtopping the weakened structure is immaterial.) As noted in the post there was a lot of movement, and it was almost immediately after the dam failed.
I don’t see Kiev or DC being bothered by the idea of clearing minefields with conscript infantry, so I suspect that if it was available in human wave quantities, they would do it. This is a big deal because a victory is desperately needed.
I am not suggesting there’s no reserves nor that the offensive won’t have successes. They’re desperately needed. Only that Kiev and DC lie, they’re probably lying badly about how many troops there are, western trained, etc. and especially when it comes to effectiveness. 30,000 dudes grabbed off the street and given half-assed, accelerated training in Europe is not - necessarily - an effective fighting force.
Jun 16, 2023·edited Jun 16, 2023Liked by Simplicius
There are two kinds of soldiers in the Russian Army, volunteers (also called contract soldiers, because they have to sign a contract to join rather than being drafted) and conscripts. Russian men are required to serve one year, starting when they are 21 (it was 19 before this year). If they are deferred (medical, in university, or manage to evade) until they are 30 (was 27 before this year), their obligation for conscription is discharged.
Generally, volunteer/contract soldiers already have completed a year of service as conscripts. So the statement in the article that "volunteers in the VDV (airborne) unit doesn't make sense" is incorrect - it is exactly volunteer/contract soldiers who serve in the VDV. The special units doesn't take green recruits. There are rules about what training someone who goes on a contract with no military experience, vs. someone with a short period of time out between their conscript period and signing a contract, vs. a longer period out has to take. Foreign training is evaluated - if someone is Syrian Army, they probably are put through a shortened basic training designed for people with between one and three years out or something from their conscript or last volunteer service, and then job-specific advanced training.
There is a special program set up for foreigners to volunteer in the Russian Army. They receive the same pay as contract soldiers with citizenship (I'm not sure if they qualify for the enlistment bonus, which is substantial now). They have a special route by law to citizenship after they finish their first one year contract - they can pass at a lower level of language proficiency, and they're helped with permanent registration (generally meaning they don't have to own their own house/apartment, I think they're given military housing indefinitely). The VDV still has its own requirements for admission to their unit - there's no reason that a Syrian volunteer couldn't meet it.
It's wild sometimes how "alternative" journalists/analysts can get inundated with so much 4chan craziness in the comments. Sucks you are forced to deal with that. As always I appreciate the work and detail you put into these posts. With so much lying, rumors, and propaganda I really appreciate how you lay out the data and add your conviction levels on the info.
I was curious if there was any more noise about the NATO Air exercise. That kicked off recently correct?
The "neural network" (ML is the more popular term) thing is not a surprise. It does not require huge processing power, for example lookup image recognition tutorials featuring measly Raspberry PI single board computers. What it does require is lots of real world training data and they sure got those in the past year. The danger with this kind of technology is false positives.
"new idea is to gather up large amounts of old M60s and Israeli Merkavas for Ukraine’s future replenishment fund"
The latter seems unlikely as today's report is only that Israel will export older Merkava 2 and 3 models for the first time to two unnamed countries. The IDF uses only Merkava 4 models, the only ones equipped with Trophy active defense.
Were there a real Western desire to flood Ukraine with modern tanks, the US Marines just completed a reorganization that released all 500+ of their M1 tanks to storage. There would be no need for more exotic approaches.
It's doubtful there is much enthusiasm in Israel to send weapons to Ukraine, given the events of the last 400 years. Certainly nothing like the enthusiasm seen (on YouTube) at annual performances of the Red Army Choir in Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv singing both Russian and Hebrew songs, including Katyusha. Israel is the only Western country that celebrates VE Day on May 9.
I definitely remember seeing footage (maybe 2 years ago, R&U video) of Russian VDV instructors training Syrians in airborne operations. They were practicing jumps out of Mil Mi-8s. Russians training an air mobile ready reaction force was an important part of rebuilding the Syrian army.
It's highly likely that some of those men would want to be in on the big game, finally play in the Super Bowl as it were. So Syrian volunteers but also Russian trained paratroopers is a real possibility.
As for wider Syrian involvement I doubt we will see a formal announcement which would bring in unnecessary political complications but something at the level of the PMCs seems likely. Tiger Force veterans have done urban assaults but they also know tanks and heavy artillery which could be useful additions to "The Orchestra".
As for Assad's and Damascus' actual political movements, Washington has shown it can put pressure on Moscow by moving forces into Syria through the Gray Zone but Damascus also has that option too by moving forces into Ukraine.
Damn this 5D chess ! This game has angles that not even Pythagoras could calculate !
i sit amazed at the recent events , i never thought in this world we would ever be so candid in refering to ukro nazis . we all grew up with nazis being the worst thing in the world but here we are 80 odd years later and they are the pinnacle of western values we are told
Have you ever seen the movie The Dirty Dozen? Great movie. Somehow I am not sure many of the inmates will become reformed, providing they survive. A psychopath is a psychopath, is a psychopath. I imagine once done w/their tour of duty so to speak they will return to their criminal crazy ways if given their freedom back. Not sure how that works in terms of a contract.
Not saying all prisoners are psychopaths, some are innocent people wrong time, wrong place, some are non-violent criminals, but them coming out reformed if they are of the psychotic nature, as better people? I don't know. I think that is a stretch. If you need cannon fodder using inmates is certainly a solution. How do you keep them from going AWOL? How do you trust them? I would guess the frontline is better than prison so they don't do stupid things. It would be an interesting study, no clue how you would collect the data or get interviews. I would like to hear from the prisoners and know their stories. Someone needs to write a book.
I love Patrick L. He is an amazing man to do what he has been doing for so long. I always worry for his safety. Yesterday's video was excellent. The man in the window was great.
100 tracked APCs in a mad zerg would easily do it since there's no minefield anymore.
A fantastic PR victory on a nuclear plant.
Well done Nazis. You don't need a PHD to do it.
My current hypothesis is that all the brigades formed for the grand offensive are actually undermanned, perhaps significantly. The dam had to go because if the VSU drew on forces from Kherson/Nikolaev to reinforce the offensive, then Kherson would be very vulnerable to a Russian counter. (Whether the destruction was explosive or purposely overtopping the weakened structure is immaterial.) As noted in the post there was a lot of movement, and it was almost immediately after the dam failed.
I don’t see Kiev or DC being bothered by the idea of clearing minefields with conscript infantry, so I suspect that if it was available in human wave quantities, they would do it. This is a big deal because a victory is desperately needed.
I am not suggesting there’s no reserves nor that the offensive won’t have successes. They’re desperately needed. Only that Kiev and DC lie, they’re probably lying badly about how many troops there are, western trained, etc. and especially when it comes to effectiveness. 30,000 dudes grabbed off the street and given half-assed, accelerated training in Europe is not - necessarily - an effective fighting force.
There are two kinds of soldiers in the Russian Army, volunteers (also called contract soldiers, because they have to sign a contract to join rather than being drafted) and conscripts. Russian men are required to serve one year, starting when they are 21 (it was 19 before this year). If they are deferred (medical, in university, or manage to evade) until they are 30 (was 27 before this year), their obligation for conscription is discharged.
Generally, volunteer/contract soldiers already have completed a year of service as conscripts. So the statement in the article that "volunteers in the VDV (airborne) unit doesn't make sense" is incorrect - it is exactly volunteer/contract soldiers who serve in the VDV. The special units doesn't take green recruits. There are rules about what training someone who goes on a contract with no military experience, vs. someone with a short period of time out between their conscript period and signing a contract, vs. a longer period out has to take. Foreign training is evaluated - if someone is Syrian Army, they probably are put through a shortened basic training designed for people with between one and three years out or something from their conscript or last volunteer service, and then job-specific advanced training.
There is a special program set up for foreigners to volunteer in the Russian Army. They receive the same pay as contract soldiers with citizenship (I'm not sure if they qualify for the enlistment bonus, which is substantial now). They have a special route by law to citizenship after they finish their first one year contract - they can pass at a lower level of language proficiency, and they're helped with permanent registration (generally meaning they don't have to own their own house/apartment, I think they're given military housing indefinitely). The VDV still has its own requirements for admission to their unit - there's no reason that a Syrian volunteer couldn't meet it.
https://www.facebook.com/MilitaryForcesXXICentury/videos/399696194493058
Your content is invaluable Sir
What on earth is a Simplicius if I may ask
It's wild sometimes how "alternative" journalists/analysts can get inundated with so much 4chan craziness in the comments. Sucks you are forced to deal with that. As always I appreciate the work and detail you put into these posts. With so much lying, rumors, and propaganda I really appreciate how you lay out the data and add your conviction levels on the info.
I was curious if there was any more noise about the NATO Air exercise. That kicked off recently correct?
The "neural network" (ML is the more popular term) thing is not a surprise. It does not require huge processing power, for example lookup image recognition tutorials featuring measly Raspberry PI single board computers. What it does require is lots of real world training data and they sure got those in the past year. The danger with this kind of technology is false positives.
"new idea is to gather up large amounts of old M60s and Israeli Merkavas for Ukraine’s future replenishment fund"
The latter seems unlikely as today's report is only that Israel will export older Merkava 2 and 3 models for the first time to two unnamed countries. The IDF uses only Merkava 4 models, the only ones equipped with Trophy active defense.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hj7ygeyvn#autoplay
Were there a real Western desire to flood Ukraine with modern tanks, the US Marines just completed a reorganization that released all 500+ of their M1 tanks to storage. There would be no need for more exotic approaches.
It's doubtful there is much enthusiasm in Israel to send weapons to Ukraine, given the events of the last 400 years. Certainly nothing like the enthusiasm seen (on YouTube) at annual performances of the Red Army Choir in Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv singing both Russian and Hebrew songs, including Katyusha. Israel is the only Western country that celebrates VE Day on May 9.
https://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Putin-Peres-unveil-Netanya-memorial-honoring-Red-Army
I was following a lot of posts after the beginning of this SMO…..now, I just look at some……this one is one of those few…. Thank you, Simplicius.
Comments is like gardening, it requires weeding.
Great blog with amazing detailed content! Thanks for taking the time to create the posts.
Re. The Syrians,
I definitely remember seeing footage (maybe 2 years ago, R&U video) of Russian VDV instructors training Syrians in airborne operations. They were practicing jumps out of Mil Mi-8s. Russians training an air mobile ready reaction force was an important part of rebuilding the Syrian army.
It's highly likely that some of those men would want to be in on the big game, finally play in the Super Bowl as it were. So Syrian volunteers but also Russian trained paratroopers is a real possibility.
As for wider Syrian involvement I doubt we will see a formal announcement which would bring in unnecessary political complications but something at the level of the PMCs seems likely. Tiger Force veterans have done urban assaults but they also know tanks and heavy artillery which could be useful additions to "The Orchestra".
As for Assad's and Damascus' actual political movements, Washington has shown it can put pressure on Moscow by moving forces into Syria through the Gray Zone but Damascus also has that option too by moving forces into Ukraine.
Damn this 5D chess ! This game has angles that not even Pythagoras could calculate !
i sit amazed at the recent events , i never thought in this world we would ever be so candid in refering to ukro nazis . we all grew up with nazis being the worst thing in the world but here we are 80 odd years later and they are the pinnacle of western values we are told
Have you ever seen the movie The Dirty Dozen? Great movie. Somehow I am not sure many of the inmates will become reformed, providing they survive. A psychopath is a psychopath, is a psychopath. I imagine once done w/their tour of duty so to speak they will return to their criminal crazy ways if given their freedom back. Not sure how that works in terms of a contract.
Not saying all prisoners are psychopaths, some are innocent people wrong time, wrong place, some are non-violent criminals, but them coming out reformed if they are of the psychotic nature, as better people? I don't know. I think that is a stretch. If you need cannon fodder using inmates is certainly a solution. How do you keep them from going AWOL? How do you trust them? I would guess the frontline is better than prison so they don't do stupid things. It would be an interesting study, no clue how you would collect the data or get interviews. I would like to hear from the prisoners and know their stories. Someone needs to write a book.
I love Patrick L. He is an amazing man to do what he has been doing for so long. I always worry for his safety. Yesterday's video was excellent. The man in the window was great.
The options are slowly running out for the counter-offensive.
When we need a new washer, will we be able to get one of the Russian models?