SITREP 6/11/24: Roundup of Hottest Developments
It’s mostly a light update day, as there aren’t any huge developments; so let’s clear the slate with an irregular scattershot style roundup of the top items of interest I’ll post then briefly comment on.
The biggest news, of course, is the bloodbath at the European parliamentary elections.
Macron had to shoot down rumors that he is planning to resign over the electoral humiliation:
Arnaud Bertrand reports:
Wow, France's republican right, the party of Chirac and Sarkozy, ask for an alliance with Le Pen for the elections (making her more likely to win). The dam was already very fissured but it's now completely broken: no taboo about Le Pen in France anymore.
Of course, it doesn’t mean as much as we might like as Le Pen has mostly been ‘captured’ by the globalist machine at this point, but it’s still something.
Palace of Versailles even caught fire today—symbolic?
A Russian flotilla is currently just miles from the Florida coast, giving the U.S. a taste of its own medicine vis-a-vis the drones which buzz daily around Crimea:
U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidons do tracks searching for the Russian Yasen class “Kazan” sub armed with nuclear SLBMs.
The US cannot find the Kazan submarine off the coast of Miami.
Foreign experts say that the Russian submarine "Kazan" project 885M is currently about 100 kilometers from Miami, in the waters of the Florida Straits.
Two P8 Poseidon patrol aircraft and two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers have been deployed to search for the Kazan.
On June 10, the carrier of hypersonic missiles "Zircon" frigate "Admiral Gorshkov" arrived in the capital of Cuba. It was later joined by a Russian nuclear-powered submarine, a carrier of hypersonic and cruise missiles.
Where the submarine is currently located is unknown.
An interesting new MediaZona report is making the rounds ‘confirming’ that Wagner lost 20,000 troops in Bakhmut. The problem is, they also ‘confirm’ that 17,000 of them were prisoners/convicts:
If true it obviously proves Russia is husbanding its forces by vastly transferring losses away from the professional non-expendable operators onto non-essential units.
Also, the pro-UA crowd is celebrating the numbers but strangely they completely forget that Prigozhin himself revealed a 2.5-3 to 1 kill ratio against the AFU:
What’s there to celebrate? Wagner emptied the prisons and took only 2,000 losses to actual Wagner troops while AFU bled 50-60k dead of their most elite professional warriors. Some trade off, huh?
By the way, for those who still may be skeptical as to those numbers, and that perhaps Prigozhin himself lied even about his own losses, pro-UA accounts love posting the famous Wagner black pyramid which they claim shows “the ID numbers of 20,000 dead Wagner troops”:
I fed the image into an AI and asked it to estimate how many numbers there are, it guessed around 1000. I tried to count one section myself then extrapolated it up, and I also got something like maybe 1500 on one triangular face. There are 3 faces, so that would make about ~4500 IDs give or take for the whole pyramid—where are they getting 20,000 from?
However, it would make sense if the pyramid honors full contract Wagner deaths in Bakhmut only and doesn’t count prisoners from the penal battalions, which would confirm that Wagner only suffered something like 3-5k casualties at Bakhmut with the rest going to Storm-Z-style detachments they used as vanguard.
Russian forces continue making gains in the Donbass.
A series of evocative reports from the official TG channel of Ukraine’s elite 79th Air Assault Brigade gives us a visceral look at the goings on.
First, the losses:
They blame the command for not understanding how air assault formations are meant to be used:
Here they complain that the units being sent to support them have no training at all and are just instantly dying, with apparently the whole battalion of territorial defense fodder being completely wiped out:
On the other hand, Ukrainians continue to post fantasies about a Russian unit called the 1009 Regiment allegedly taking “heavy losses” in the north, at the Kharkov-Volchansk battle. However, this turned out to be a fake Ukrainian TSIPSO campaign, as the 1009th themselves wrote:
The enemy's Telegram channels spread fake news about the destruction of the 1009th motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces near Volchansk. All enemy channels refer to a fake source created by the Ukrainians-the "Northern Channel", which is part of the TSIPSO grid and disguises itself as a Russian one. The resource was first created as a Ukrainian channel, but later renamed to discredit the command of the North group. The enemy posts videos of attacks on our equipment on it and works out defeatist subpoenas on behalf of our soldier. Similar work in Ukraine is being carried out in the TSYPSO of the Zhytomyr region, Lviv, and part of the offices of the center for psychological operations are located in Kiev. The 1009th regiment is fighting, has not been withdrawn anywhere, the guys continue to beat the enemy.
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The main Russian push over the past few days appeared to be around Novoaleksandrovka, west of Ochertino and Avdeevka:
But Russia managed to capture other settlements including the claimed recapture of Staromayorsk, which had fallen as part of the ‘counteroffensive’ last year.
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The other episode of note was the announcement by many that the long-awaited Sumy campaign had finally begun as Chechen forces came over the border and reportedly captured the town of Ryzhivka on the Ukrainian side of the border:
They took photos in front of the administrative building however it appears that this was just a DRG raid, similar to what Ukrainian RDK forces did in Belgorod for a long time. Chechen special units appeared to briefly ‘capture’ the gray-zoned town for a photo/psyop and then withdrew. But it does obviously forebode some coming activity there as it affirms that Russia does have active forces positioned on that side.
Rada deputy Revchuk said that Russia again gathered 50 thousand military personnel at the border. He doesn't know where they're going to go
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Ukrainian drones managed to penetrate a Russian airbase in Akhtubinsk allegedly damaging an Su-57:
However, it turns out these were flight test prototypes and not active service Su-57s on combat duty:
The Su-57 with damage is a prototype, as we said, this base is home to the 929th State Flight Test Center.
It shows that Ukraine continues to target more obscure, less-protected areas for big prestige PR opportunities with little actual battlefield consequence.
That being said, it is still concerning how little defense the base had: one claimed report says no missiles of any kind were launched against the drones and the base’s security merely shot at them ineffectively with small arms fire.
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On that note, Defense Minister Belousov met with an entire entourage of Russia’s top frontline correspondents actively involved in the SMO to gather all the needed complaints and suggestions from the front so that problems like this can continue to be minimized and solved:
Defense Minister Belousov met with military correspondents covering the progress of the Northern Military District. The Russian Ministry of Defense added that the conversation was frank and constructive. The department also promised that such meetings with military officers will be held on a regular basis.
"We, military officers, met with the Minister of Defense Andrei Removich Belousov. I want to tell each of our soldiers, each guy at the front: we delivered everything you asked. Both good and even worse. Everything. Huge changes await us. Serving the Fatherland."
How many of the correspondents do you recognize? Everyone seems to have been identified in the photo:
Agranovich Katya (mesh Potupchik)
Gromov (AP)
Gadziev (military correspondent, RT)
Girl from RIA
Konashenkov (RF Ministry of Defense)
Kots (military correspondent, Komsomolskaya Pravda)
correspondent Izvestia (with thick beautiful hair)
Kulko (military correspondent, Channel One)
Pegov (military correspondent, WarGonzo project)
Poddubny (military correspondent, VGTRK)
Podolyaka (blogger)
Rudenko (military correspondent, VGTRK)
Steshin (military correspondent, Komsomolskaya Pravda)
Sladkov (military correspondent, Russia)
He also took time out to award some heroes:
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Russian forces continue experimenting with new EW inventions on the front:
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Society continues to rise up against the forced mobilizations in Ukraine. Commissars came to mobilize a group of emergency paramedics and were attacked, sparking an extended fisticuffs:
There are so many videos like this now I can’t even post them all, these are just the two most evocative. Another:
Interestingly though, one Ukrainian source has claimed that since the mobilization began, Ukraine has rounded up more new meat in the past month alone than in the entire previous 6 month period.
But Rezident UA reports:
Resident
#Inside
Our source in the OP said that Ukrainians continue to sabotage mobilization, in the first month only 7% of another 20% of the plan came to the TCK by force. The General Staff demands to tighten the mobilization process as much as possible and to create a military police for these purposes.
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The second stage of Russia’s tactical nuclear exercises has commenced as a message to NATO:
The second stage of exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces of Russia and Belarus has begun, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported. The department recalled that the maneuvers are aimed at maintaining the readiness of personnel and equipment to ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Union State. Earlier, during the first stage of the exercises, the military practiced obtaining special training ammunition for the Iskander tactical missile system, equipping launch vehicles with them, and covertly advancing to the designated position area in preparation for missile launches. And the personnel of the Russian Aerospace Forces practiced equipping aviation weapons with training special combat units, including the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missiles, and conducting flights to designated patrol areas.
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In preparation for the coming Swiss peace summit Zelensky addressed the German parliament to rousing—if totally affected—ovations:
The AfD and BSW parties boycotted the speech entirely and were not present. In fact, AfD leaders declared the following:
Four minutes after Zelensky took the podium, AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla said in a written statement: " Zelensky's term is over. He remains in office only as a belligerent and impoverished president." Most of the faction boycotted the speech. “We refuse to listen to a speaker in combat uniform,” Weidel and Khrupalla further stated. “What Ukraine needs now is not a military president, but a president willing to negotiate peace to stop extinction and for the country to have a future.”
The conference was full of such disingenuously saccharine platitudes it pains me to even post the empty drivel these reviled bureaucrats spewed to deaf ears:
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If you thought that was ridiculous, Western press continues on its track of total clownish irrelevancy and the purveying of absolute alternate reality confections:
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Lindsey “Ladybug” Graham gave us the first truly honest indication of why the bloodthirsty neocons want Ukraine so badly. Ironically, all he did was confirm how much richer and more powerful Russia will soon be when it captures Ukraine:
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Ukraine has reportedly lost another 9 gigawatts of its total 18 gigawatt power capacity peak of last winter:
Ukraine will face at least two "black" years: the energy system has suffered serious damage from Russian missile attacks. So, according to the director of the Center for Energy Research Alexander Kharchenko, the country lost more than 9 gigawatts of 18 gigawatts that were previously. He said this in a comment channel 24.
But accounting for the total capacity Ukraine had prewar, Russia reportedly destroyed 30 total gigawatts, dropping Ukraine to under 20GW:
During the full-scale war, Russia destroyed more than half of the energy capacity of our state. Electricity generation has dropped to less than 20 gigawatts. That is, Ukraine has lost more than 30 gigawatts of capacity.
https://24tv.ua/vidklyuchennya-svitla-koli-ne-bude-vidklyuchen-yakoyu-bude-zima_n2572163
If I’m understanding these numbers correctly, Ukraine started with around 55GW total and is now down to 9GW.
Before the full-scale invasion of Russia, Ukraine had a capacity of about 55 gigawatts. This is one of the largest indicators in Europe.
That means if Russia continues electric grid attacks for the next 6 months, by this coming winter Ukraine should effectively be entirely de-energized, apart from what it can import from Europe via high transmission lines—a quickfix rife with its own difficulties.
A new FT article corroborates:
“If no measures are taken, according to our modelling, then probably the population will have only two to four hours of electricity [per day] in January,” said Dodonov.
Another vital statistic:
73% of thermal power plants in Ukraine are inoperative, 62 power units at thermal power plants and hydroelectric power stations are not functioning, - Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
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NATO’s arms factories continue to “mysteriously” explode:
An explosion at an armaments factory in Poland has caused fire, killing one person and injuring several more, RMF radio reported on Monday.
The blast at the Mesko plant happened at its rocket fuel center, the broadcaster said on its website, citing the company’s official. The firm, located in south-eastern Poland is owned by state-run Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa SA.
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Lavrov explains the thesis I recently outlined that the U.S. would like to instigate a limited nuclear war in Europe to save itself from collapse by destroying competitors first:
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Lastly, a bit of potential good news.
Remember the Russian Rostov-on-Don submarine that was hit by Storm Shadows in Sevastopol last year while sitting in a repair bay?
I reported months ago that Russia announced the timeline for its damage to be repaired by June. Well, we’re now in June and the latest satellite photos indicate the Rostov-on-Don has disappeared from its special drydock:
The OSINTers claim it was shifted to a different location but their evidence is highly questionable as the sub is no longer visible—they are just “guessing” it’s under some net suspended between two barges they found elsewhere. So either the Rostov is already out in the wild, or it has left drydock and is now floating under a net for some final surface repairs, we don’t know for certain.
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Clueless rightwing people in the Western world (especially in USA) are getting excited for rightwing parties of continental Europe that say "ABC" and then do "XYZ" when they actually ascend to power. Like Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini of Italy who talked tough on immigration and then softened when he ascended to national office or the supposedly ultra-rightwing Giorgia Meloni who talked even tougher on immigration and then did a 180 degrees turn upon becoming Prime Minister of Italy. Today, she no longer thinks immigration is that bad. In fact, her main preoccupation is screaming "Slava Ukraini" while transferring Italy's entire military arsenal to the drab shirt called Volodymyr Zelensky.
Over in the Netherlands, we have Geert Wilders simultaneously pretending to give a shit about about Dutch people while engaging in non-stop shilling for faraway colonial-settler state in the Middle East (Israel)
The ‘EU-icide’: Emmanuel Todd asks if it’s suicide or homicide?
Former Saker contributor here, big fan of Simplicius. I'm writing a multi-part series analysing and excerpting Todd's French-only book "The Defeat of the West". Thought you and your readers might be interested as this book has become huge here for telling the West a lot of truths about Russia, Ukraine and themselves. After analysing the state of Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and then the West in general, Todd looks at what I say is the biggest political story of the 21st century: the "EU-icide" - the failure of the pan-European project. Thanks for allowing me to post this here and keep up the great work.
https://raminmazaheri.substack.com/p/the-eu-icide-emmanuel-todd-asks-if