Yesterday was a fairly slow day of consolidations so we took a break. But now it’s time to summarize the new developments, which begin with the latest battlefield updates. Ukraine has ran into a brickwall on the western Zaporozhye front near Orekhov where the Russian 42nd division of the 58th army continues to strongly hold the line.
Ciaramella is a deep state leaker. How many Ukrainians have to die as cannon fodder for the big guy senile joe to cover up for his crackhead son hunter? The bootlicking neocons at the bulwark are salivating at every escalation; https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/how-to-lick-boots-at-the-bulwark
Offensives seem to be impossible, by either side. Those expecting a big Russian offensive upon the failure of Ukraine's are deluded. It has not happened, and it is never going to happen. You can see the problem. Just read this article. Russia will have to be content with micro-gains. When they tried to get ambitious in Ugledar, we see the poor results.
Consider that Russia has spent about eight months building its defences in the south, whilst Ukraine has been building there's for eight years.
Also people need to bear in mind that all these newly formed Ukrainian brigades with western equipment have been set aside specifically for the offensive. If it fails, why are people assuming that Ukraine's defensive lines will suddenly collapse? They are not collapsing now are they? The Chechen's were supposed to finally clear Marinka sometime ago. The order was apparently made. Has that happened? No. The Bottom-line is, I see the war dragging on for years. At least 5 years, maybe more.
Giving nukes to Ukraine is a pipe dream. Doing so would destroy the Non Proliferation Treaty. It'd open a whole can of worms, everyone would be sending nukes everywhere, it'd be nuclear anarchy.
I'm surprised how butt hurt Ukranian supporters are over the undisputably correct decision to enforce NPT and prevent a cascade of nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly they'd be mad if Russia and China started gifting nukes. Yet that is what they want, they want their cake, nuclear proliferation, and to eat it, only the west may proliferate nukes, an impossible scenario.
I'm going to make a shameless plug. Thank you for your considerable effort. You're communication skills are off the charts, positive. The use of grey-matter energy and organizational skill it takes to marshal the information you present is nothing short of superior.
I hope you get more and more subscribers. The more the better. In an age of willful distortion of facts and narrative manipulation voices like yours are not a luxury. They are a necessity.
God bless. Here's to doubling and tripling your subscribers.
I dont sweat the frontest of front line positions changing hands, thats almost the point of them. In fact i have accepted Russias penchant for letting the enemy come to them, clearing them up, moving back the the original position and starting the cycle again in this whole event.
I am increasingly of the view that Russia will need to kill 3-4 million Ukrainians in order for Ukrainians to turn on their domestic civilian and military leaderships, in order to effect a domestic coup.
The benefit of a domestic coup in Ukraine is it allows for an off-ramp for the US, before the administration decides to use nuclear weapons.
Biden may be inclined to use nuclear weapons in order to prove he is tougher against Russia than Trump.
We are living in batshit crazy times.
+++
With respect to counter-mine operations, there are ways to make mine detection and destruction more effective, in a way that would neutralize the effectiveness of tube-launched scatterables.
Labeling your sitrep "superb" can only be understatement.
Mines. The thought of them rips my body apart. On one hand, I don't want them to exist. On the other, they may become a big reason why this war ends sooner than cold-blooded Cold War fans want it to.
This death of tens of thousands is fucking unnecessary. All Ukraine and Europe needed to do was be honest, and honour the Minsk agreement. All NATO had to do was be the defensive agency it claimed to be. Instead, we get faraway little people with big heads, moving murder like its a board game whilst they adjust their ties and lipstick.
Jun 12, 2023·edited Jun 12, 2023Liked by Simplicius
First comment: Let them advance into what will become a valley of death. Just another form of meatgrinder.
Second comment: Thanks for recognizing the forward spotters and their teams. Properly trained, equipped and deployed they can wreck immense havoc with the sort of artillery and CAS they can call upon. Without their tenacity, the Ukies would have an easier time.
Third comment: One of the first comments I made here was on the Minefield article and the vast complications posed. There're only two solutions via tech I envision: assault hovercraft that float over the ground or the same sort of capability using anti-gravity. Air-mobile assaults vaulting such obstacles can only do so safely with local air supremacy at minimum, which Russia seems to currently enjoy. I researched Russian hovercraft early in the SMO; some formidable prototypes were produced but never made in any quantity. If such a craft could be engineered to ford minefields, but that still doesn't allow your heavy equipment through. Oh the toil of the Sapper!
Last comment: In Russian comms we hear Russian troops calling Ukie/Nato forces Nazis. The trenches unearth Great Patriotic War remains. As I've written, that emotional motivator can be enormous. And combined with superior weapons and leadership is extremely hard to defeat. Let the NATO "vols" attack too so they can do their share of dying.
After the war the mine situation will be terrible for people in Ukraine/Russia. People still cant clear out mines in Vietnam and Cambodia, and African states are still having daily struggles in mined areas. What a nightmare.
The more I see him operate, the more convinced I am that Yevgeny Prigozhin -- with all his bluster, braggadocio and buffoonery -- is really Donald Trump in disguise.
Ciaramella is a deep state leaker. How many Ukrainians have to die as cannon fodder for the big guy senile joe to cover up for his crackhead son hunter? The bootlicking neocons at the bulwark are salivating at every escalation; https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/how-to-lick-boots-at-the-bulwark
Offensives seem to be impossible, by either side. Those expecting a big Russian offensive upon the failure of Ukraine's are deluded. It has not happened, and it is never going to happen. You can see the problem. Just read this article. Russia will have to be content with micro-gains. When they tried to get ambitious in Ugledar, we see the poor results.
Consider that Russia has spent about eight months building its defences in the south, whilst Ukraine has been building there's for eight years.
Also people need to bear in mind that all these newly formed Ukrainian brigades with western equipment have been set aside specifically for the offensive. If it fails, why are people assuming that Ukraine's defensive lines will suddenly collapse? They are not collapsing now are they? The Chechen's were supposed to finally clear Marinka sometime ago. The order was apparently made. Has that happened? No. The Bottom-line is, I see the war dragging on for years. At least 5 years, maybe more.
Giving nukes to Ukraine is a pipe dream. Doing so would destroy the Non Proliferation Treaty. It'd open a whole can of worms, everyone would be sending nukes everywhere, it'd be nuclear anarchy.
I'm surprised how butt hurt Ukranian supporters are over the undisputably correct decision to enforce NPT and prevent a cascade of nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly they'd be mad if Russia and China started gifting nukes. Yet that is what they want, they want their cake, nuclear proliferation, and to eat it, only the west may proliferate nukes, an impossible scenario.
I'm going to make a shameless plug. Thank you for your considerable effort. You're communication skills are off the charts, positive. The use of grey-matter energy and organizational skill it takes to marshal the information you present is nothing short of superior.
I hope you get more and more subscribers. The more the better. In an age of willful distortion of facts and narrative manipulation voices like yours are not a luxury. They are a necessity.
God bless. Here's to doubling and tripling your subscribers.
Prepare personally for the worst, hope for the best. Have a plan B.
I dont sweat the frontest of front line positions changing hands, thats almost the point of them. In fact i have accepted Russias penchant for letting the enemy come to them, clearing them up, moving back the the original position and starting the cycle again in this whole event.
I am increasingly of the view that Russia will need to kill 3-4 million Ukrainians in order for Ukrainians to turn on their domestic civilian and military leaderships, in order to effect a domestic coup.
The benefit of a domestic coup in Ukraine is it allows for an off-ramp for the US, before the administration decides to use nuclear weapons.
Biden may be inclined to use nuclear weapons in order to prove he is tougher against Russia than Trump.
We are living in batshit crazy times.
+++
With respect to counter-mine operations, there are ways to make mine detection and destruction more effective, in a way that would neutralize the effectiveness of tube-launched scatterables.
I hope they gave the remains of that Soviet fighter a proper burial.
Kyrie Eleison
Labeling your sitrep "superb" can only be understatement.
Mines. The thought of them rips my body apart. On one hand, I don't want them to exist. On the other, they may become a big reason why this war ends sooner than cold-blooded Cold War fans want it to.
This death of tens of thousands is fucking unnecessary. All Ukraine and Europe needed to do was be honest, and honour the Minsk agreement. All NATO had to do was be the defensive agency it claimed to be. Instead, we get faraway little people with big heads, moving murder like its a board game whilst they adjust their ties and lipstick.
First comment: Let them advance into what will become a valley of death. Just another form of meatgrinder.
Second comment: Thanks for recognizing the forward spotters and their teams. Properly trained, equipped and deployed they can wreck immense havoc with the sort of artillery and CAS they can call upon. Without their tenacity, the Ukies would have an easier time.
Third comment: One of the first comments I made here was on the Minefield article and the vast complications posed. There're only two solutions via tech I envision: assault hovercraft that float over the ground or the same sort of capability using anti-gravity. Air-mobile assaults vaulting such obstacles can only do so safely with local air supremacy at minimum, which Russia seems to currently enjoy. I researched Russian hovercraft early in the SMO; some formidable prototypes were produced but never made in any quantity. If such a craft could be engineered to ford minefields, but that still doesn't allow your heavy equipment through. Oh the toil of the Sapper!
Last comment: In Russian comms we hear Russian troops calling Ukie/Nato forces Nazis. The trenches unearth Great Patriotic War remains. As I've written, that emotional motivator can be enormous. And combined with superior weapons and leadership is extremely hard to defeat. Let the NATO "vols" attack too so they can do their share of dying.
thanks for the excellent overview here.. very thorough..
After the war the mine situation will be terrible for people in Ukraine/Russia. People still cant clear out mines in Vietnam and Cambodia, and African states are still having daily struggles in mined areas. What a nightmare.
US is looking at this as.the do-or-die battle so the stupid Europeans are being pushed to send in their military "independently" instead of as "NATO".
Russia must be defeated before the war against China can start.
The more I see him operate, the more convinced I am that Yevgeny Prigozhin -- with all his bluster, braggadocio and buffoonery -- is really Donald Trump in disguise.