Excellent read. Regarding the offensive I think you are correct. When you look at the level of Russian air, missile, drone strikes? How do the Ukes even get started? You so much as get three vehicles together and the fire from the heaven is coming. If they do anything it is going to be the nuke plant or Transnistria.
And if the nitwits in the Pentagon would clue into the truly terrifying issue? The Russian production capacity. Sir, we cannot get our weed smoking children to go to work in this country. The illegal immigrants we allow in the country to do shit work cannot do high level defense factory work. Our economy is 32 Trillion in the hole, and our demographics are collapsing. The kids are not joining the military. We simply cannot cope with Russian military production.
The guy (Grossi?)from the UN Nuclear org is back in the news, advising not to strike the ZNPP.He is a CIA asset, though expect Brits SAS to try again after multiple failures last year and this year also.
I fully expect these Nazis scum to set off a bomb in Tiraspol tomorrow and kill a bunch of innocent people because they're losing on every other front. Even worse, some of the dead will be ethnic Ukrainians, and yet they'll say the whole thing is a "Russian provocation."
Prigozhin is a real character. This episode sounds like a combo of pysops and covering his butt publicly relative to completing the job by May 9th. Who else cares if it is completed May 9th or May 10th? The real mission of significant attrition of Ukraine military was accomplished already. Today Russia unleashed some serious attack damage across the front, maybe the most in one day so far. Russian air dominance now on full display and it is wreaking havoc. I will surmise that whatever offensive was planned has been significantly impaired by the Russian strikes of the past week. The idiots in the West who just expected Russia to allow Ukraine to launch this offensive unimpeded might be waking up to reality now. So, we now see various forms of substantially grinding and pulverizing the enemy in play and harmonizing. From my vantage point, the arrogance and stupidity of the NATO is breathtaking. Stupid is as stupid does.
moved a lot of air defence from behind the lines forward . lots of vids showing it gettn obliterated on the road. RF has anticipated and countered every move they made
Yep, Ukraine is both desperate and insane. When you sell your soul to the devil, this is where you end up. They will likely have 1,000,000 casualties by the time this war ends.
I like the idea of capturing the nuke plant. It ticks all boxes - tactically sound, politically significant, plays well in media, and so on.
On javelins- I never get a straight story. I recall Michael Koffman going on about how they were actually largely used to kill trucks and the Russians took such losses that they wound up using school buses for supply. He also considers the total recapture of Zap as a given so whatever he is smoking sounds like pretty good stuff.
Ru I think is waiting for economic tables to turn in EU and US. And the frantic nature you feel tells us that things may be coming to a head, particularly in the EU. But who knows. Russia - The Nation that Waits.
Michael Kofman is the single biggest failure of this entire war, bar none. Bigger than Strelkov, Rob Lee, etc. I recall the crowing these clowns made at the beginning about destroyed Russian Kamaz/Ural supply trucks and how Russia was running out of such trucks. Even Oryx's highest count for the destruction of these trucks is something slightly over 2000. Do you know how many of these trucks Russia has *and* produces per year?
1. it has over 200-300k
2. Ural and Kamaz both individually produce 30-40k *per year* of these trucks.
That means even if Russia lost literally 1000% more than what Oryx claims, they would be fine as far as supply trucks go.
Imagine trying to sell a narrative that 2000 destroyed trucks out of 300k, for companies that produce 80-100k of them annually is catastrophic to your campaign?
Michael Kofman is a true pathetic joke and has been wrong at every turn.
Thanks for once again putting it all together for us.
One question I have that I keep forgetting to ask is why are the Russians taking the city piecemeal as opposed to encircling it and starving the Ukrainians out?
This is actually a good question I should treat at length in the next one if I can remember. But for now, basically 2 reasons:
1. though it may be counter-intuitive, Wagner troops have openly stated that it is actually easier for them to progress through the city than through open fields. The city offers coverage where they are safer and can advance under cover of buildings. On the outskirts of the city, to surround AFU they'd have to advance through open fields where they get easily spotted and picked off.
2. AFU strengthened their 'flanks' around the city a lot. Some of the most elite groups were sent to places like Ivanovsk (Georgian foreign legion) and Khromove (other elite units). These are the southwest and northwest flanks of Bakhmut.
Keep in mind, Wagner *tried* many times to hit these flanks and encircle it, but for the aforementioned reasons they were always rebuffed and had to retreat. It's simply too difficult to take them out in the open and Wagner finds it much easier to advance through the city because you can get right under the nose of your enemy without him hitting you by using buildings as cover.
In fact, Wagner was said to use a special tactic inside Bakhmut where they specifically advance as close to the enemy positions as possible by hopping cover to cover from buildings, so that the AFU's artillery is unable to work because Wagner front scouts are so close to the AFU's positions that their artillery fears hitting their own men.
The "flanks" of Bakhmut on the southwest and northwest of it are all wide open fields. To advance there and try to 'surround' Bakhmut is extremely difficult because AFU just picks you off in the wide open.
Btw, I even had a quote literally screenshotted and saved on this very note which I was intending to use. It's a Wagner fighter in an interview who stated the following highlighted in yellow: https://i.imgur.com/HHsR8pL.jpg
Because the Russian objective in Bakhmut isn't taking territory, it's eliminating as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible by luring them, piecemeal, into their Bakhmut meat-grinder.
That's another good point. In Prigozhin's writeup which I linked in the Sitrep above, he actually confirms this as fact and says taking the city was never the point, the objective was always to grind down the enemy.
In only a couple weeks, May 27, will be Kissinger's centennial...100 year birthday. The creature is still ticking and is even still offering to mediate in the Ukraine peace talks, blech.
How is it possible that evil like Kissinger and Soros are still alive at their age? Maybe elites have medicines means we the peasants are not allowed to receive if we need them?
I so wish, we …were not a pond, a sea, apart. I make a mean cup of mud, and bake the cake to go. My sincere, soulful gratitude. I was a wee bit on edge, the Flower Full Moon, or perhaps the eclipse. This, THIS is calming and extra special sauce, concise. In God we trust, carry on my pal. GodSpeed, Glorly to Mother Russia💙🇷🇺❤️
"...China will be used to rein Russia into peace talks “by the end of this year”. This is something I’ve long predicted and have written about as recently as last night in the previous article’s comment section. The U.S.’s plan is to use a number of economic leverage options against all of Russia’s key allies in order to bring Russia to the negotiation table..."
The US will of course try...but I just don't see it working. Set aside the fact that China is a multi-dimensional ally of Russia and that both countries are locked in an existential war against the Collective West to determine what kind of world we'll live in. The reality is that the longer NATO is mired in Ukraine while having its military stocks steadily depleted in this ill-fated boondoggle, the more it weakens the United States and strengthens China vis-a-vis Taiwan.
Why in the world would China help its mortal enemy to bring an early end to any of this? It's tantamount to China declaring "Sure! we'll help to negotiate a quick end to the Ukraine conflict, so that NATO can shift 100% of its focus towards preparing to go to war with us over Taiwan." And similarly, if Russia caves into pressure from its allies, it tantamount to them declaring "This is an existential war to preserve Russia's security and sovereignty, but I guess we'll stop on the verge of victory, and give Ukraine time (again) to re-arm against us."
The Chinese would have to have the stupidest government on Earth to do this. And the Russians would be close behind. I give both nations more credit than this.
Yes, I hope and don't *think* it will work, but as with everything it's a probability game, I'd say maybe 10-15% chance of it working. Can never discount anything but it does feel like Russia has the resolve to keep this thing going to the end.
Russia has to keep going until the end - It's the only way to ensure their national security, and to set an example for any other power that thinks it can conquer them in the future. The Russians are winning on the battlefield in such a lopsided manner that there's there's no reason for them to concede on any level to achieve a negotiated settlement.
Russia has always maintained that it's open to *serious* negotiation, and its hand is getting stronger with every passing week. It's increasingly clear that the war will end on Russia's terms, or once it accomplishes its goals militarily. The longer that NATO and Ukraine refuse to accept reality and concede to Russia's terms, the worse each subsequent offer for a negotiated settlement will be for them.
The second half of this year is going to be interesting. The AFU is going to be on verge of collapse by this Fall. NATO stocks will be exhausted, and Washington is going to want to extricate itself from this war before the US election season begins. They know that still being mired in Ukraine (and visibly losing) will be a fatal liability for the current administration. The Neocons also recognize that the window of opportunity to pivot to China is limited. Similarly, NATO allied governments all over Europe are going to want to extricate themselves before another harsh winter and energy shortages hit. The populations of Europe are already disillusioned and have no more patience or interest in supporting a US proxy war that's destroying their lives and economies.
I think NATO, including the USA, are going to find that they have grabbed onto the tail of a bear, a angry, threatened bear and will realise that they have started something that they have no power to stop. They will want desperately to let go, but there will be no letting go as the inevitability of what they started begins to sink in and they find that they, like the French, the Germans, the Swedes, the Poles and the Mongols before them, have no hope of escaping from a merciless bear fighting for its life.
As I was reading your comment, what sprung to mind was the old saying, "Never engage in a land war in Asia" and here we are, with the clown show rushing headlong into it. Possibly on two fronts. Could our "leaders" get any dumber?
If by chance Russia is brought to the table, I think the West and Ukraine will choke on their demands - permanent loss of Ukie territory possibly including Transnistria, Malorussia and Novorussia (also with the inclusion that all such territory be recognised internationally as a part of Russia), Kiev regime change and installation of a Russia-neutral administration, implementation of a solid programme to remove all nazis from influence, disarmament of the military, Ukrainian neutrality with the condition that she is never asked to/promised to/enters NATO, inclusion of Russia's December 2021 demands for a European Security Treaty including a NATO pullback to its 1997 position, and removal of all sanctions.
Russia might be willing to negotiate on those terms, though as I have said before, the chances that the US remains politically powerful enough to effect their demands is highly questionable at this point.
Further, as there is no longer trust in the West and Russia considers this entire affair of an existential nature, I doubt that Russia will consider any agreement with the West. Ukraine is no longer the prime object of Russia's interests now, so Ukraine should not be considered independently. The issue now for Russia is the complete destruction of the Western alliance. Russia, China and Iran will make certain this happens.
Holy cow this is long lol. Good stuff tho I can’t finish anymore tonight. Curious tho as I read thru the timing of sorts. Not much less then Prigozhins last call Bhakmut was set ablaze?
Very hard for me to tell but seemed it followed the other?
Well, allegedly Mizintsev was simply outright transferred to Wagner as a private military contractor. Whereas Surovikin is still in the Russian MOD but is purportedly acting as a liaison for distributing supplies to Wagner.
It always amazes me how even I over-estimate the effectiveness of Western equipment when I was one of the first to call out the bullshit around the Javelin Wunderwaffen. Also, kudos for being one of the few commentators out there to understand how EW works.
As for Prigozhin, the more he acts out, the more inclined I am to believe the "Wagner are spoiled brats" narrative. Imagine if PMC Blackwater had made such a gory rant video during the Global War (of) Terror. Heads would've rolled. But instead, PMC Wagner gets not one, but two rising stars of generals basically all to itself, not to mention an extra special guarantee of supplies.
I wrote in the last report that basically I see his arrest as a final hour desperation measure by AFU/SBU to plug all the leaks and tighten up their ship on the eve of their so-called 'offensive'. So his arrest to me signifies a start of a new phase from them, whether that actually leads to real offensives or not, but at the minimum it signifies a 'projected' offensive phase where they will certainly attempt to make it look like they're going on a major offensive, and project a lot of 'activity' which is probably partly what his arrest is meant to show for the sake of morale and making it look like they're actually doing something and capturing enemies, etc. This is all to set the stage for the inevitable failure of their 'offensive'.
Gonzalo is a muppet in my opinion. He's very argumentative, he's quick tempered, and he's very rigid in his arguments, and I don't regard him as an expert.
The fact that he is considered such a threat by the SBU that they take the PR hit to arrest him and take him "off the air" tells you they are desperate.
Tbh, if I was the SBU, I'd put Gonzalo on national television to debate someone, he would not be able to keep his cool and he would embarass / discredit himself by losing it live on air.
The intelligent, rationale approach was to ignore Gonzalo, since he had very limited public audience. Their pre-occupation with him is a sign of paranoia emanating from a sense of extreme weakness and fear.
Exactly. Sounds like Priggies' bluff was called by Kadyrov and he suddenly got scared of losing his glory. I'm sure Priggy wants a giant statue of his jowly mug built in Bakhmut city center when alls said and done.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. A couple of notes:
1) Stockpiles are refilled, not "re-armed"
2) The area in western Bakhmut is not the "Citadel" (🇷🇺 Krepost) but the "Gnezdo" which is usually translated as "The Nest" but could also be "The Pocket"
3) If you look at Zatoka (the only land border between Romania and SE Ukraine) on a map, you'll see it's barely 1km wide. And since it's right on the coast, it's all wetlands and marsh except for the bridge itself. Disable that bridge and the connection is completely cut. I believe it's already been bombed/missile attacked a few times, but haven't seen any new photos of it being bombed now, so not quite sure how it was disabled (this time).
4) "napkin math" = "back of the napkin math." The phrase comes from a theoretical situation where you're at dinner and don't have any paper to hand, so you flip over your napkin and write down your figures there.
5) Does anyone know where Zelensky is? Is he back in Ukraine? And why is Budanov's office in Kiev still unscathed?
6) There's a weird story going around that Moldova has banned all agricultural exports from Ukraine, yet I've seen nothing in the Moldovan press about it, and it seems a deeply counter-intuitive for the rabidly pro-Ukraine gov't in Chisinau to do. Yet supposedly Ukraine is enraged about this.
7) If I hear one more mention of "Russian climate weapons," I will scream. Just look at a map and you'll see all that rain breezing in from the WEST, just like it has done for millennia. But yeah, more rain is coming.
7) How do you explain the 1979 International treaty banning weather manipulation as a weapon of war? Perhaps, 44 years later the tech has improved, exponentially¿¿¿ Granted, rainfall right after major battles is a common phenomena observed throughout history & you're right, April-May is the expected months for rain. However, If you believe climate isn't directly affected by human climate manipulation technology, then I suggest some serious research on your part is needed. Anthropomorphic global warming/climate change is real, however, it is purposeful & intentional, with a specific goal of controlling not just the weather, but nations.
Ask Erdogan what he thinks about HAARP? Two days after TUR foreign minister said 'US is our ennemy'' etc..very strange. Even more as Western Embassies asked their nationals to leave Turkey in fear of a ''terror attack'', maybe yankees advised them they were preparing 'something' without details, they did not tell them about the earthquake
👍,same in Syria where intl disaster aid is non existant. Pakistan had, coincidentally, record flooding during US sponsored coup, while China had severe drought that has dried up the yellow river. They don't hesitate to use it on their own nation & citizens.
5) "And why is Budanov's office in Kiev still unscathed?"
A lot of Russians must be asking this question. All of these vermin such as Budanov, Danilov, Podoloyak, have one thing in common. A desire for self-preservation. Eliminate them and their successors will be far less motivated to take the same actions.
4) Maybe you're thinking of "back of the envelope". "napkin math" is fine ...
(oh and btw, the most well known example of napkin math is Laffer's Curve and trickle down economics. To think that the whole edifice of neoliberal economic policy rested on that napkin ...)
Excellent read. Regarding the offensive I think you are correct. When you look at the level of Russian air, missile, drone strikes? How do the Ukes even get started? You so much as get three vehicles together and the fire from the heaven is coming. If they do anything it is going to be the nuke plant or Transnistria.
And if the nitwits in the Pentagon would clue into the truly terrifying issue? The Russian production capacity. Sir, we cannot get our weed smoking children to go to work in this country. The illegal immigrants we allow in the country to do shit work cannot do high level defense factory work. Our economy is 32 Trillion in the hole, and our demographics are collapsing. The kids are not joining the military. We simply cannot cope with Russian military production.
The guy (Grossi?)from the UN Nuclear org is back in the news, advising not to strike the ZNPP.He is a CIA asset, though expect Brits SAS to try again after multiple failures last year and this year also.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-156-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
I fully expect these Nazis scum to set off a bomb in Tiraspol tomorrow and kill a bunch of innocent people because they're losing on every other front. Even worse, some of the dead will be ethnic Ukrainians, and yet they'll say the whole thing is a "Russian provocation."
Prigozhin is a real character. This episode sounds like a combo of pysops and covering his butt publicly relative to completing the job by May 9th. Who else cares if it is completed May 9th or May 10th? The real mission of significant attrition of Ukraine military was accomplished already. Today Russia unleashed some serious attack damage across the front, maybe the most in one day so far. Russian air dominance now on full display and it is wreaking havoc. I will surmise that whatever offensive was planned has been significantly impaired by the Russian strikes of the past week. The idiots in the West who just expected Russia to allow Ukraine to launch this offensive unimpeded might be waking up to reality now. So, we now see various forms of substantially grinding and pulverizing the enemy in play and harmonizing. From my vantage point, the arrogance and stupidity of the NATO is breathtaking. Stupid is as stupid does.
moved a lot of air defence from behind the lines forward . lots of vids showing it gettn obliterated on the road. RF has anticipated and countered every move they made
Yep, Ukraine is both desperate and insane. When you sell your soul to the devil, this is where you end up. They will likely have 1,000,000 casualties by the time this war ends.
Most informative update.
Thank you so much for your work !
I like the idea of capturing the nuke plant. It ticks all boxes - tactically sound, politically significant, plays well in media, and so on.
On javelins- I never get a straight story. I recall Michael Koffman going on about how they were actually largely used to kill trucks and the Russians took such losses that they wound up using school buses for supply. He also considers the total recapture of Zap as a given so whatever he is smoking sounds like pretty good stuff.
Ru I think is waiting for economic tables to turn in EU and US. And the frantic nature you feel tells us that things may be coming to a head, particularly in the EU. But who knows. Russia - The Nation that Waits.
Michael Kofman is the single biggest failure of this entire war, bar none. Bigger than Strelkov, Rob Lee, etc. I recall the crowing these clowns made at the beginning about destroyed Russian Kamaz/Ural supply trucks and how Russia was running out of such trucks. Even Oryx's highest count for the destruction of these trucks is something slightly over 2000. Do you know how many of these trucks Russia has *and* produces per year?
1. it has over 200-300k
2. Ural and Kamaz both individually produce 30-40k *per year* of these trucks.
That means even if Russia lost literally 1000% more than what Oryx claims, they would be fine as far as supply trucks go.
Imagine trying to sell a narrative that 2000 destroyed trucks out of 300k, for companies that produce 80-100k of them annually is catastrophic to your campaign?
Michael Kofman is a true pathetic joke and has been wrong at every turn.
Thanks for once again putting it all together for us.
One question I have that I keep forgetting to ask is why are the Russians taking the city piecemeal as opposed to encircling it and starving the Ukrainians out?
This is actually a good question I should treat at length in the next one if I can remember. But for now, basically 2 reasons:
1. though it may be counter-intuitive, Wagner troops have openly stated that it is actually easier for them to progress through the city than through open fields. The city offers coverage where they are safer and can advance under cover of buildings. On the outskirts of the city, to surround AFU they'd have to advance through open fields where they get easily spotted and picked off.
2. AFU strengthened their 'flanks' around the city a lot. Some of the most elite groups were sent to places like Ivanovsk (Georgian foreign legion) and Khromove (other elite units). These are the southwest and northwest flanks of Bakhmut.
Keep in mind, Wagner *tried* many times to hit these flanks and encircle it, but for the aforementioned reasons they were always rebuffed and had to retreat. It's simply too difficult to take them out in the open and Wagner finds it much easier to advance through the city because you can get right under the nose of your enemy without him hitting you by using buildings as cover.
In fact, Wagner was said to use a special tactic inside Bakhmut where they specifically advance as close to the enemy positions as possible by hopping cover to cover from buildings, so that the AFU's artillery is unable to work because Wagner front scouts are so close to the AFU's positions that their artillery fears hitting their own men.
The "flanks" of Bakhmut on the southwest and northwest of it are all wide open fields. To advance there and try to 'surround' Bakhmut is extremely difficult because AFU just picks you off in the wide open.
Btw, I even had a quote literally screenshotted and saved on this very note which I was intending to use. It's a Wagner fighter in an interview who stated the following highlighted in yellow: https://i.imgur.com/HHsR8pL.jpg
Because the Russian objective in Bakhmut isn't taking territory, it's eliminating as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible by luring them, piecemeal, into their Bakhmut meat-grinder.
That's another good point. In Prigozhin's writeup which I linked in the Sitrep above, he actually confirms this as fact and says taking the city was never the point, the objective was always to grind down the enemy.
What a wealth of information!
I can sleep knowing Golem is happy w/his ammo.
Ugh. Kissinger is still garbling. POS excuse for a human. I should have known better than to click on the link.
Just get er' done, and make sure American "contractors" do not get the bids on rebuilding anything. And "democratic" Ukraine needs to free Gonzalo.
What country's name was on those parts blown up over the Kremlin?
In only a couple weeks, May 27, will be Kissinger's centennial...100 year birthday. The creature is still ticking and is even still offering to mediate in the Ukraine peace talks, blech.
I hope he doesn't see his centennial. They will put him on ice and save him for a day when they need a big headline and a couple of days of coverage.
I want Tuesday to be a good day for the Russians!
How is it possible that evil like Kissinger and Soros are still alive at their age? Maybe elites have medicines means we the peasants are not allowed to receive if we need them?
I so wish, we …were not a pond, a sea, apart. I make a mean cup of mud, and bake the cake to go. My sincere, soulful gratitude. I was a wee bit on edge, the Flower Full Moon, or perhaps the eclipse. This, THIS is calming and extra special sauce, concise. In God we trust, carry on my pal. GodSpeed, Glorly to Mother Russia💙🇷🇺❤️
"...China will be used to rein Russia into peace talks “by the end of this year”. This is something I’ve long predicted and have written about as recently as last night in the previous article’s comment section. The U.S.’s plan is to use a number of economic leverage options against all of Russia’s key allies in order to bring Russia to the negotiation table..."
The US will of course try...but I just don't see it working. Set aside the fact that China is a multi-dimensional ally of Russia and that both countries are locked in an existential war against the Collective West to determine what kind of world we'll live in. The reality is that the longer NATO is mired in Ukraine while having its military stocks steadily depleted in this ill-fated boondoggle, the more it weakens the United States and strengthens China vis-a-vis Taiwan.
Why in the world would China help its mortal enemy to bring an early end to any of this? It's tantamount to China declaring "Sure! we'll help to negotiate a quick end to the Ukraine conflict, so that NATO can shift 100% of its focus towards preparing to go to war with us over Taiwan." And similarly, if Russia caves into pressure from its allies, it tantamount to them declaring "This is an existential war to preserve Russia's security and sovereignty, but I guess we'll stop on the verge of victory, and give Ukraine time (again) to re-arm against us."
The Chinese would have to have the stupidest government on Earth to do this. And the Russians would be close behind. I give both nations more credit than this.
Yes, I hope and don't *think* it will work, but as with everything it's a probability game, I'd say maybe 10-15% chance of it working. Can never discount anything but it does feel like Russia has the resolve to keep this thing going to the end.
EU will announce sanctions on China this week.
Russia has to keep going until the end - It's the only way to ensure their national security, and to set an example for any other power that thinks it can conquer them in the future. The Russians are winning on the battlefield in such a lopsided manner that there's there's no reason for them to concede on any level to achieve a negotiated settlement.
Russia has always maintained that it's open to *serious* negotiation, and its hand is getting stronger with every passing week. It's increasingly clear that the war will end on Russia's terms, or once it accomplishes its goals militarily. The longer that NATO and Ukraine refuse to accept reality and concede to Russia's terms, the worse each subsequent offer for a negotiated settlement will be for them.
The second half of this year is going to be interesting. The AFU is going to be on verge of collapse by this Fall. NATO stocks will be exhausted, and Washington is going to want to extricate itself from this war before the US election season begins. They know that still being mired in Ukraine (and visibly losing) will be a fatal liability for the current administration. The Neocons also recognize that the window of opportunity to pivot to China is limited. Similarly, NATO allied governments all over Europe are going to want to extricate themselves before another harsh winter and energy shortages hit. The populations of Europe are already disillusioned and have no more patience or interest in supporting a US proxy war that's destroying their lives and economies.
I think NATO, including the USA, are going to find that they have grabbed onto the tail of a bear, a angry, threatened bear and will realise that they have started something that they have no power to stop. They will want desperately to let go, but there will be no letting go as the inevitability of what they started begins to sink in and they find that they, like the French, the Germans, the Swedes, the Poles and the Mongols before them, have no hope of escaping from a merciless bear fighting for its life.
As I was reading your comment, what sprung to mind was the old saying, "Never engage in a land war in Asia" and here we are, with the clown show rushing headlong into it. Possibly on two fronts. Could our "leaders" get any dumber?
By the election I predict Biden will be a full-fledged war president and thus win. Yeah, disgusting as that is, it's happened time and time again.
If by chance Russia is brought to the table, I think the West and Ukraine will choke on their demands - permanent loss of Ukie territory possibly including Transnistria, Malorussia and Novorussia (also with the inclusion that all such territory be recognised internationally as a part of Russia), Kiev regime change and installation of a Russia-neutral administration, implementation of a solid programme to remove all nazis from influence, disarmament of the military, Ukrainian neutrality with the condition that she is never asked to/promised to/enters NATO, inclusion of Russia's December 2021 demands for a European Security Treaty including a NATO pullback to its 1997 position, and removal of all sanctions.
Russia might be willing to negotiate on those terms, though as I have said before, the chances that the US remains politically powerful enough to effect their demands is highly questionable at this point.
Further, as there is no longer trust in the West and Russia considers this entire affair of an existential nature, I doubt that Russia will consider any agreement with the West. Ukraine is no longer the prime object of Russia's interests now, so Ukraine should not be considered independently. The issue now for Russia is the complete destruction of the Western alliance. Russia, China and Iran will make certain this happens.
"also with the inclusion that all such territory be recognised internationally as a part of Russia"
Good point actually. This is a must have condition. International recognition by the scum in the west to gel with events on the ground.
Holy cow this is long lol. Good stuff tho I can’t finish anymore tonight. Curious tho as I read thru the timing of sorts. Not much less then Prigozhins last call Bhakmut was set ablaze?
Very hard for me to tell but seemed it followed the other?
Man that Prigozhin’s thing was a time suck. Wagner are heroes so maybe time for them to rest.
Also I thought Mizitsintev (I butchered his name) was supposed do something or other future command of Wagner not Surovikin?
Well, allegedly Mizintsev was simply outright transferred to Wagner as a private military contractor. Whereas Surovikin is still in the Russian MOD but is purportedly acting as a liaison for distributing supplies to Wagner.
It always amazes me how even I over-estimate the effectiveness of Western equipment when I was one of the first to call out the bullshit around the Javelin Wunderwaffen. Also, kudos for being one of the few commentators out there to understand how EW works.
As for Prigozhin, the more he acts out, the more inclined I am to believe the "Wagner are spoiled brats" narrative. Imagine if PMC Blackwater had made such a gory rant video during the Global War (of) Terror. Heads would've rolled. But instead, PMC Wagner gets not one, but two rising stars of generals basically all to itself, not to mention an extra special guarantee of supplies.
I come, here, hear, to learn from the bright bulbs. Between the old timers from VOS, Andrei M, the barflies…MOA…a peep can learn so…much.❤️🇷🇺💙
Mention of Gonzalo Lira by ACroneintheWoods compels me to ask what is your assessment on his arrest?
I wrote in the last report that basically I see his arrest as a final hour desperation measure by AFU/SBU to plug all the leaks and tighten up their ship on the eve of their so-called 'offensive'. So his arrest to me signifies a start of a new phase from them, whether that actually leads to real offensives or not, but at the minimum it signifies a 'projected' offensive phase where they will certainly attempt to make it look like they're going on a major offensive, and project a lot of 'activity' which is probably partly what his arrest is meant to show for the sake of morale and making it look like they're actually doing something and capturing enemies, etc. This is all to set the stage for the inevitable failure of their 'offensive'.
Gonzalo is a muppet in my opinion. He's very argumentative, he's quick tempered, and he's very rigid in his arguments, and I don't regard him as an expert.
The fact that he is considered such a threat by the SBU that they take the PR hit to arrest him and take him "off the air" tells you they are desperate.
Tbh, if I was the SBU, I'd put Gonzalo on national television to debate someone, he would not be able to keep his cool and he would embarass / discredit himself by losing it live on air.
The intelligent, rationale approach was to ignore Gonzalo, since he had very limited public audience. Their pre-occupation with him is a sign of paranoia emanating from a sense of extreme weakness and fear.
At 2:15:33 Barnes explains a little about PissMoanings background.
https://rumble.com/v2mikfu-ep.-159-barstool-proud-boys-kari-lake-trump-rfk-jr.-and-more-viva-and-barne.html
Wagner: were so great we should get all the toys, you cant do this without us.
Chechens: Make sure you have your shit out of our way so we can take over.
Wagner: Its ok now.
Exactly. Sounds like Priggies' bluff was called by Kadyrov and he suddenly got scared of losing his glory. I'm sure Priggy wants a giant statue of his jowly mug built in Bakhmut city center when alls said and done.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. A couple of notes:
1) Stockpiles are refilled, not "re-armed"
2) The area in western Bakhmut is not the "Citadel" (🇷🇺 Krepost) but the "Gnezdo" which is usually translated as "The Nest" but could also be "The Pocket"
3) If you look at Zatoka (the only land border between Romania and SE Ukraine) on a map, you'll see it's barely 1km wide. And since it's right on the coast, it's all wetlands and marsh except for the bridge itself. Disable that bridge and the connection is completely cut. I believe it's already been bombed/missile attacked a few times, but haven't seen any new photos of it being bombed now, so not quite sure how it was disabled (this time).
4) "napkin math" = "back of the napkin math." The phrase comes from a theoretical situation where you're at dinner and don't have any paper to hand, so you flip over your napkin and write down your figures there.
5) Does anyone know where Zelensky is? Is he back in Ukraine? And why is Budanov's office in Kiev still unscathed?
6) There's a weird story going around that Moldova has banned all agricultural exports from Ukraine, yet I've seen nothing in the Moldovan press about it, and it seems a deeply counter-intuitive for the rabidly pro-Ukraine gov't in Chisinau to do. Yet supposedly Ukraine is enraged about this.
7) If I hear one more mention of "Russian climate weapons," I will scream. Just look at a map and you'll see all that rain breezing in from the WEST, just like it has done for millennia. But yeah, more rain is coming.
1. Thx
2. Not sure where you got this info, the area of highrise buildings in southwest Bakhmut is called the Citadel by the troops operating there, a fact attested to by numerous sources like this one: https://i.imgur.com/AI5Ir53.png and this one https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/04/29/bakhmut-endgame-wagner-assaults-citadel-area/
3. Yes, they hit the bridge 4 times previously to my knowledge. Twice on the actual span itself with cruise missiles (https://www.bitchute.com/video/fUrSZ78lACsC/), once with naval suicide drone (https://www.bitchute.com/video/v4VEXgakyI6k/) and once with tv guided missile onto the cable which hoists the drawbridge type mechanism (https://www.bitchute.com/video/kTYgMdZ3uWkY/)
4. What if I like to do my math on the front of the napkin? Do you really flip yours over? Why not just write on the top of the napkin?
5. Not sure, maybe his office is underground or maybe Putin doesn't want to take him out for some reason as yet unbeknownst to us.
6. I've seen this under the headline of some 'friction between Ukraine/Moldova' but hadn't looked into it yet.
7. Well, I guess we can count out any major offensives any time soon. I guess we'll see how hard the rain is.
7) How do you explain the 1979 International treaty banning weather manipulation as a weapon of war? Perhaps, 44 years later the tech has improved, exponentially¿¿¿ Granted, rainfall right after major battles is a common phenomena observed throughout history & you're right, April-May is the expected months for rain. However, If you believe climate isn't directly affected by human climate manipulation technology, then I suggest some serious research on your part is needed. Anthropomorphic global warming/climate change is real, however, it is purposeful & intentional, with a specific goal of controlling not just the weather, but nations.
Ask Erdogan what he thinks about HAARP? Two days after TUR foreign minister said 'US is our ennemy'' etc..very strange. Even more as Western Embassies asked their nationals to leave Turkey in fear of a ''terror attack'', maybe yankees advised them they were preparing 'something' without details, they did not tell them about the earthquake
👍,same in Syria where intl disaster aid is non existant. Pakistan had, coincidentally, record flooding during US sponsored coup, while China had severe drought that has dried up the yellow river. They don't hesitate to use it on their own nation & citizens.
5) "And why is Budanov's office in Kiev still unscathed?"
A lot of Russians must be asking this question. All of these vermin such as Budanov, Danilov, Podoloyak, have one thing in common. A desire for self-preservation. Eliminate them and their successors will be far less motivated to take the same actions.
4) Maybe you're thinking of "back of the envelope". "napkin math" is fine ...
(oh and btw, the most well known example of napkin math is Laffer's Curve and trickle down economics. To think that the whole edifice of neoliberal economic policy rested on that napkin ...)