Let’s start with some updates about previously ongoing developments. The Prigozhin saga has appeared to have concluded in the expected and predictable manner. Prigozhin now claims all is fine, and that a new deal has been struck with the Russian MOD to deliver all appropriate ammo, plus securing of the Wagner flanks. This was after Chechen leader Kadyrov claimed to have already been sending his men to take over Bakhmut from Wagner.
Excellent read. Regarding the offensive I think you are correct. When you look at the level of Russian air, missile, drone strikes? How do the Ukes even get started? You so much as get three vehicles together and the fire from the heaven is coming. If they do anything it is going to be the nuke plant or Transnistria.
And if the nitwits in the Pentagon would clue into the truly terrifying issue? The Russian production capacity. Sir, we cannot get our weed smoking children to go to work in this country. The illegal immigrants we allow in the country to do shit work cannot do high level defense factory work. Our economy is 32 Trillion in the hole, and our demographics are collapsing. The kids are not joining the military. We simply cannot cope with Russian military production.
Prigozhin is a real character. This episode sounds like a combo of pysops and covering his butt publicly relative to completing the job by May 9th. Who else cares if it is completed May 9th or May 10th? The real mission of significant attrition of Ukraine military was accomplished already. Today Russia unleashed some serious attack damage across the front, maybe the most in one day so far. Russian air dominance now on full display and it is wreaking havoc. I will surmise that whatever offensive was planned has been significantly impaired by the Russian strikes of the past week. The idiots in the West who just expected Russia to allow Ukraine to launch this offensive unimpeded might be waking up to reality now. So, we now see various forms of substantially grinding and pulverizing the enemy in play and harmonizing. From my vantage point, the arrogance and stupidity of the NATO is breathtaking. Stupid is as stupid does.
I like the idea of capturing the nuke plant. It ticks all boxes - tactically sound, politically significant, plays well in media, and so on.
On javelins- I never get a straight story. I recall Michael Koffman going on about how they were actually largely used to kill trucks and the Russians took such losses that they wound up using school buses for supply. He also considers the total recapture of Zap as a given so whatever he is smoking sounds like pretty good stuff.
Ru I think is waiting for economic tables to turn in EU and US. And the frantic nature you feel tells us that things may be coming to a head, particularly in the EU. But who knows. Russia - The Nation that Waits.
Thanks for once again putting it all together for us.
One question I have that I keep forgetting to ask is why are the Russians taking the city piecemeal as opposed to encircling it and starving the Ukrainians out?
I so wish, we …were not a pond, a sea, apart. I make a mean cup of mud, and bake the cake to go. My sincere, soulful gratitude. I was a wee bit on edge, the Flower Full Moon, or perhaps the eclipse. This, THIS is calming and extra special sauce, concise. In God we trust, carry on my pal. GodSpeed, Glorly to Mother Russia💙🇷🇺❤️
"...China will be used to rein Russia into peace talks “by the end of this year”. This is something I’ve long predicted and have written about as recently as last night in the previous article’s comment section. The U.S.’s plan is to use a number of economic leverage options against all of Russia’s key allies in order to bring Russia to the negotiation table..."
The US will of course try...but I just don't see it working. Set aside the fact that China is a multi-dimensional ally of Russia and that both countries are locked in an existential war against the Collective West to determine what kind of world we'll live in. The reality is that the longer NATO is mired in Ukraine while having its military stocks steadily depleted in this ill-fated boondoggle, the more it weakens the United States and strengthens China vis-a-vis Taiwan.
Why in the world would China help its mortal enemy to bring an early end to any of this? It's tantamount to China declaring "Sure! we'll help to negotiate a quick end to the Ukraine conflict, so that NATO can shift 100% of its focus towards preparing to go to war with us over Taiwan." And similarly, if Russia caves into pressure from its allies, it tantamount to them declaring "This is an existential war to preserve Russia's security and sovereignty, but I guess we'll stop on the verge of victory, and give Ukraine time (again) to re-arm against us."
The Chinese would have to have the stupidest government on Earth to do this. And the Russians would be close behind. I give both nations more credit than this.
Holy cow this is long lol. Good stuff tho I can’t finish anymore tonight. Curious tho as I read thru the timing of sorts. Not much less then Prigozhins last call Bhakmut was set ablaze?
Very hard for me to tell but seemed it followed the other?
It always amazes me how even I over-estimate the effectiveness of Western equipment when I was one of the first to call out the bullshit around the Javelin Wunderwaffen. Also, kudos for being one of the few commentators out there to understand how EW works.
As for Prigozhin, the more he acts out, the more inclined I am to believe the "Wagner are spoiled brats" narrative. Imagine if PMC Blackwater had made such a gory rant video during the Global War (of) Terror. Heads would've rolled. But instead, PMC Wagner gets not one, but two rising stars of generals basically all to itself, not to mention an extra special guarantee of supplies.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. A couple of notes:
1) Stockpiles are refilled, not "re-armed"
2) The area in western Bakhmut is not the "Citadel" (🇷🇺 Krepost) but the "Gnezdo" which is usually translated as "The Nest" but could also be "The Pocket"
3) If you look at Zatoka (the only land border between Romania and SE Ukraine) on a map, you'll see it's barely 1km wide. And since it's right on the coast, it's all wetlands and marsh except for the bridge itself. Disable that bridge and the connection is completely cut. I believe it's already been bombed/missile attacked a few times, but haven't seen any new photos of it being bombed now, so not quite sure how it was disabled (this time).
4) "napkin math" = "back of the napkin math." The phrase comes from a theoretical situation where you're at dinner and don't have any paper to hand, so you flip over your napkin and write down your figures there.
5) Does anyone know where Zelensky is? Is he back in Ukraine? And why is Budanov's office in Kiev still unscathed?
6) There's a weird story going around that Moldova has banned all agricultural exports from Ukraine, yet I've seen nothing in the Moldovan press about it, and it seems a deeply counter-intuitive for the rabidly pro-Ukraine gov't in Chisinau to do. Yet supposedly Ukraine is enraged about this.
7) If I hear one more mention of "Russian climate weapons," I will scream. Just look at a map and you'll see all that rain breezing in from the WEST, just like it has done for millennia. But yeah, more rain is coming.
Excellent read. Regarding the offensive I think you are correct. When you look at the level of Russian air, missile, drone strikes? How do the Ukes even get started? You so much as get three vehicles together and the fire from the heaven is coming. If they do anything it is going to be the nuke plant or Transnistria.
And if the nitwits in the Pentagon would clue into the truly terrifying issue? The Russian production capacity. Sir, we cannot get our weed smoking children to go to work in this country. The illegal immigrants we allow in the country to do shit work cannot do high level defense factory work. Our economy is 32 Trillion in the hole, and our demographics are collapsing. The kids are not joining the military. We simply cannot cope with Russian military production.
Prigozhin is a real character. This episode sounds like a combo of pysops and covering his butt publicly relative to completing the job by May 9th. Who else cares if it is completed May 9th or May 10th? The real mission of significant attrition of Ukraine military was accomplished already. Today Russia unleashed some serious attack damage across the front, maybe the most in one day so far. Russian air dominance now on full display and it is wreaking havoc. I will surmise that whatever offensive was planned has been significantly impaired by the Russian strikes of the past week. The idiots in the West who just expected Russia to allow Ukraine to launch this offensive unimpeded might be waking up to reality now. So, we now see various forms of substantially grinding and pulverizing the enemy in play and harmonizing. From my vantage point, the arrogance and stupidity of the NATO is breathtaking. Stupid is as stupid does.
Most informative update.
Thank you so much for your work !
I like the idea of capturing the nuke plant. It ticks all boxes - tactically sound, politically significant, plays well in media, and so on.
On javelins- I never get a straight story. I recall Michael Koffman going on about how they were actually largely used to kill trucks and the Russians took such losses that they wound up using school buses for supply. He also considers the total recapture of Zap as a given so whatever he is smoking sounds like pretty good stuff.
Ru I think is waiting for economic tables to turn in EU and US. And the frantic nature you feel tells us that things may be coming to a head, particularly in the EU. But who knows. Russia - The Nation that Waits.
Thanks for once again putting it all together for us.
One question I have that I keep forgetting to ask is why are the Russians taking the city piecemeal as opposed to encircling it and starving the Ukrainians out?
What a wealth of information!
I can sleep knowing Golem is happy w/his ammo.
Ugh. Kissinger is still garbling. POS excuse for a human. I should have known better than to click on the link.
Just get er' done, and make sure American "contractors" do not get the bids on rebuilding anything. And "democratic" Ukraine needs to free Gonzalo.
What country's name was on those parts blown up over the Kremlin?
I so wish, we …were not a pond, a sea, apart. I make a mean cup of mud, and bake the cake to go. My sincere, soulful gratitude. I was a wee bit on edge, the Flower Full Moon, or perhaps the eclipse. This, THIS is calming and extra special sauce, concise. In God we trust, carry on my pal. GodSpeed, Glorly to Mother Russia💙🇷🇺❤️
"...China will be used to rein Russia into peace talks “by the end of this year”. This is something I’ve long predicted and have written about as recently as last night in the previous article’s comment section. The U.S.’s plan is to use a number of economic leverage options against all of Russia’s key allies in order to bring Russia to the negotiation table..."
The US will of course try...but I just don't see it working. Set aside the fact that China is a multi-dimensional ally of Russia and that both countries are locked in an existential war against the Collective West to determine what kind of world we'll live in. The reality is that the longer NATO is mired in Ukraine while having its military stocks steadily depleted in this ill-fated boondoggle, the more it weakens the United States and strengthens China vis-a-vis Taiwan.
Why in the world would China help its mortal enemy to bring an early end to any of this? It's tantamount to China declaring "Sure! we'll help to negotiate a quick end to the Ukraine conflict, so that NATO can shift 100% of its focus towards preparing to go to war with us over Taiwan." And similarly, if Russia caves into pressure from its allies, it tantamount to them declaring "This is an existential war to preserve Russia's security and sovereignty, but I guess we'll stop on the verge of victory, and give Ukraine time (again) to re-arm against us."
The Chinese would have to have the stupidest government on Earth to do this. And the Russians would be close behind. I give both nations more credit than this.
Holy cow this is long lol. Good stuff tho I can’t finish anymore tonight. Curious tho as I read thru the timing of sorts. Not much less then Prigozhins last call Bhakmut was set ablaze?
Very hard for me to tell but seemed it followed the other?
Man that Prigozhin’s thing was a time suck. Wagner are heroes so maybe time for them to rest.
Also I thought Mizitsintev (I butchered his name) was supposed do something or other future command of Wagner not Surovikin?
It always amazes me how even I over-estimate the effectiveness of Western equipment when I was one of the first to call out the bullshit around the Javelin Wunderwaffen. Also, kudos for being one of the few commentators out there to understand how EW works.
As for Prigozhin, the more he acts out, the more inclined I am to believe the "Wagner are spoiled brats" narrative. Imagine if PMC Blackwater had made such a gory rant video during the Global War (of) Terror. Heads would've rolled. But instead, PMC Wagner gets not one, but two rising stars of generals basically all to itself, not to mention an extra special guarantee of supplies.
Mention of Gonzalo Lira by ACroneintheWoods compels me to ask what is your assessment on his arrest?
At 2:15:33 Barnes explains a little about PissMoanings background.
https://rumble.com/v2mikfu-ep.-159-barstool-proud-boys-kari-lake-trump-rfk-jr.-and-more-viva-and-barne.html
Wagner: were so great we should get all the toys, you cant do this without us.
Chechens: Make sure you have your shit out of our way so we can take over.
Wagner: Its ok now.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. A couple of notes:
1) Stockpiles are refilled, not "re-armed"
2) The area in western Bakhmut is not the "Citadel" (🇷🇺 Krepost) but the "Gnezdo" which is usually translated as "The Nest" but could also be "The Pocket"
3) If you look at Zatoka (the only land border between Romania and SE Ukraine) on a map, you'll see it's barely 1km wide. And since it's right on the coast, it's all wetlands and marsh except for the bridge itself. Disable that bridge and the connection is completely cut. I believe it's already been bombed/missile attacked a few times, but haven't seen any new photos of it being bombed now, so not quite sure how it was disabled (this time).
4) "napkin math" = "back of the napkin math." The phrase comes from a theoretical situation where you're at dinner and don't have any paper to hand, so you flip over your napkin and write down your figures there.
5) Does anyone know where Zelensky is? Is he back in Ukraine? And why is Budanov's office in Kiev still unscathed?
6) There's a weird story going around that Moldova has banned all agricultural exports from Ukraine, yet I've seen nothing in the Moldovan press about it, and it seems a deeply counter-intuitive for the rabidly pro-Ukraine gov't in Chisinau to do. Yet supposedly Ukraine is enraged about this.
7) If I hear one more mention of "Russian climate weapons," I will scream. Just look at a map and you'll see all that rain breezing in from the WEST, just like it has done for millennia. But yeah, more rain is coming.