The crimea strikes couldn't happen without the constant drone surveillance over the black sea. Am truly amazed they haven't been bringing them down or at least sending up something to interrupt them on a regular basis. Crimea is a funny place, strategically critical if you're the west because it completed the black sea strategy, but if y…
The crimea strikes couldn't happen without the constant drone surveillance over the black sea. Am truly amazed they haven't been bringing them down or at least sending up something to interrupt them on a regular basis. Crimea is a funny place, strategically critical if you're the west because it completed the black sea strategy, but if you're Russia it's a salient sticking out and surrounded on 3 sides.
Strange comments. If the regions the drones fly over are in international water, the US can use them with their drones. Those drones have multi purposes, not only the Ukraine war. So shooting those drones down, would be a reason for war, as it would be a reason for war if the US or NATO shoots down Russian drones over international waters. I am a little bit astonished you two don't know that. So you want WWIII on a bigger scale? We for sure have WWIII on a smaller scale, I don't want it to become a full out war, you two for sure don't want that either.
you see nuclear missiles flying? No? 10 million people (in both sides) in the trenches? mass draft in every NATO/BRICS country? when please stop with 'full on war'. it means not what you think it means...
It will be as you describe. We are only arguing about who is going to shoot first: Russia, to avoid or respond to battlefield loss, or the west, because Russian red lines mean nothing
I don't think so. no real desire for either side to fully self-destruct and full realization that we will continue to coexist. Consider this
- there is absolutely nothing that blocks NATO, or any country of NATO, or UK, or USA from declaring war tomorrow. or admitting Ukraine into EU or into NATO or into affirmative action league or whatever. So why arent they declaring war? because they are fucking scared to death of what it means. End of story.
- there is absolutely no way "NATO" (meaning USA) would 'win' over Russia much less occupy it in any form. not enough humans for that and far not enough resources
- similarly, there is no way Russia can 'occupy Europe', not enough humans, resources, etc.
This will end with coexistence.
And lastly, it is getting pretty boring to watch 'brave NATO' image their own crazy red/blue/pink lines, assigned them to Russia (or China, or India), and then violating them. Guys, that only works in media/twitter battlefields. if you want to fight -> then fight. if you dont, the rest of the world (Global Majority) sees it for what it is. The entire EU can not equip and sustain a single division in the field and you want to take on Russia AND China?? STFU and GTFO , the adults in the room are laughing at you.
Show me EU being able to create at least 500k real army, with 2K working tanks, etc then there at least going to be a conversation.
and here in USA, the last thing we want is be involved in european war for the nazi fucks in Kiev who are Democratic Party clients (money laundering operations).
What you're saying is true today, at this moment..but a year ago things such as storm shadows and f16s and atacms and striking pre-2014 Russia were off the table. Today all that is on, and they are flirting with the idea of rear troops and western Ukraine missile defense. So, where are we in a year from today?
a year ago, all I heard was 'Ukraine is winning the war' , or from NATO spokespuppet 'Ukraine already defeated Putin' - remember that?
You know what a real escalation looks like? multiple carrier battle groups in both Baltic and Black Seas, without any noise, public statements ,etc. Like what USA did with Gaza, just moved its aircraft carriers into the zone and did not ask anyone and did not hold press conferences. A 100K US troops on the ground in Ukraine (a quarter of entirety of US army), _that_ is an escalation and a real one. Is anyone stopping US from doing it? we can sign an 'agreement' without puppet and just move in. Are we doing it? No and we know why. Fighting rival superpower on their territory, inside of their logistics, there they will ALWAYS have full dominance is insanely stupid and we will lose. end of story.
what you see as 'escalations' I see as token gestures, dumping 50-year-old planes on poor UA that are far beyond warranty period. Trash of Leopard-1 tanks from 1950s, really? that is the 'might of NATO'?
Yes, US/NATO is poking Russia right now with ATACOMS and Russia is poking NATO back in other areas (Red Sea, all Africa, etc), just as effectively or may be even more. Do you really think Yemeni's rub a dessert camel butt and out came supersonic/hypersonic weaponry?? or Ansarullah somehow designed and built such weaponry themselves?? Sure... And the more 'west' would push in Ukraine, the more will suddenly be found in desert (and other places) - i.e. why not sync every NATO aligned ship anywhere in Persian Gulf or Red Sea? Someone ordered escalation? Enjoy your gas at 20/gallon and see how long your economy lasts. And there is just one of many flashpoints. Look at China (the other leg of the "alliance that is not alliance but deeper than any alliance strategic partnership" (whatever that means)) doing near their province of Taiwan now.
or what Russians are doing in Africa cutting of France from resources and supplies (including critical ones). this is a huge battlefield and Ukraine is just one of many flashpoints.
Macron is (after having lost 3 maybe soon 6 French Afrique countries including Uranium rich Niger), Macron is enjoying civil war in ..France, yes a bit far from Paris in New Caledonia but this also a nickel rich island..he was forced to send 3.000 troops more will go soon and will probably have to stay? Who is behind? Macron says Azeris, is really Azeris it can only be for Israel (Macron wanted to recognize Palestine, suddenly no more...Russia...China (more likely), Australia don't think so eventhough they are very near and interested in nickel.
What Russia could do is to announce a no-fly zone over the Black Sea, but there will be no UNSC backing for it, and they love to play by the book of international law.
The U.S. allowed Russian weapons to be supplied to the North Koreans, North Vietnamese, Syrians, etc in many conflicts. There is a precedent for supplying munitions to other countries. Yes, it makes the suppliers a belligerent, but the cost of bringing that belligerent into the conflict is often too high.
Supplying weapons doesn't make you a belligerent. It remains up to the opposing side to bring you into the war. It's certainly provocative to supply weapons.
I think this is what you are _actually_ trying to say.
here's a guess based on my reading of the experts' sum evaluations: Russia is absolutely going for Odessa and my guess is pretty damn soon, because it is from there and areas beyond that the fascist west is launching its missiles. Russia has to encase that Black Sea area with Russian military. Let NATO eat shit.
What I understand is Russia has simply extended its defensive war of attrition to an offensive war of attrition. There is no need to frontally assault cities like Odessa and Kharkov if the entire Ukrainian military and and Ukraine's male population from 25 to 60 are dead, maimed, PTSD or fled to the West even as the West continues to demilitarize itself.
There is a palpable sense of collapse occurring in the Ukrainian military now - and I can see no possible events which will turn this around:
1) Ukraine got their money, that can't be used as either an excuse or new funding as a carrot any more.
2) Ukraine has gotten ATACMS, HIMARS, Patriots, Abrams, etc etc - everything except F16s for which the problem there is pilots and airfields. What magic new wunderwaffen can be waved as a game changer carrot now?
3) We all know, meaning the Ukrainians know, that Western troops are already in Ukraine. There simply is neither the will, nor the logistics, nor the equipment, nor the troops for even an outright NATO joining into the war to happen. This isn't 1914 with European industrial juggernaut armies, after years of mobilized preparations, waiting on a hair trigger to activate. As I've noted before: Germany fired 8 million artillery shells in one day: the first day of the Battle of Verdun. All of the West cannot even scrape together 1 million shells for Ukraine per quarter.
4) The passage of the mobilization bill won't change a damn thing since they're losing more people than they are gaining - and it is not at all clear how having NATO trainers in Ukraine will help. Isn't outdated NATO strategy exactly why the "counteroffensive" of 2023 failed?
And given Russia's air dominance plus vast stocks of drone and missiles - how exactly are these new warm bodies going to get trained when even company sized detachments grouping for say, reveille, have a very non-zero chance of absorbing a tactical strike despite being far behind the front lines?
They mistook Russian strategic withdrawal for Russian defeat, and ascribed superiority to the Ukrainians that did not exist.
von Moltke was unwilling to take the title of a great captain of history, claiming that he didn't compare to those captains, having never conducted a retreat.
The crimea strikes couldn't happen without the constant drone surveillance over the black sea. Am truly amazed they haven't been bringing them down or at least sending up something to interrupt them on a regular basis. Crimea is a funny place, strategically critical if you're the west because it completed the black sea strategy, but if you're Russia it's a salient sticking out and surrounded on 3 sides.
those drones should have been taken out years
The fact Russia even allows the western weapons to get into ukraine and the nato drones to fly in the black sea is laughable.
They either have a truly bizarre tolerance for casualties, or are actually really limited in what they can do. I'm leaning to the latter.
Strange comments. If the regions the drones fly over are in international water, the US can use them with their drones. Those drones have multi purposes, not only the Ukraine war. So shooting those drones down, would be a reason for war, as it would be a reason for war if the US or NATO shoots down Russian drones over international waters. I am a little bit astonished you two don't know that. So you want WWIII on a bigger scale? We for sure have WWIII on a smaller scale, I don't want it to become a full out war, you two for sure don't want that either.
Explain to me how it's not locked in to a full on war as it is now.
you see nuclear missiles flying? No? 10 million people (in both sides) in the trenches? mass draft in every NATO/BRICS country? when please stop with 'full on war'. it means not what you think it means...
It will be as you describe. We are only arguing about who is going to shoot first: Russia, to avoid or respond to battlefield loss, or the west, because Russian red lines mean nothing
I don't think so. no real desire for either side to fully self-destruct and full realization that we will continue to coexist. Consider this
- there is absolutely nothing that blocks NATO, or any country of NATO, or UK, or USA from declaring war tomorrow. or admitting Ukraine into EU or into NATO or into affirmative action league or whatever. So why arent they declaring war? because they are fucking scared to death of what it means. End of story.
- there is absolutely no way "NATO" (meaning USA) would 'win' over Russia much less occupy it in any form. not enough humans for that and far not enough resources
- similarly, there is no way Russia can 'occupy Europe', not enough humans, resources, etc.
This will end with coexistence.
And lastly, it is getting pretty boring to watch 'brave NATO' image their own crazy red/blue/pink lines, assigned them to Russia (or China, or India), and then violating them. Guys, that only works in media/twitter battlefields. if you want to fight -> then fight. if you dont, the rest of the world (Global Majority) sees it for what it is. The entire EU can not equip and sustain a single division in the field and you want to take on Russia AND China?? STFU and GTFO , the adults in the room are laughing at you.
Show me EU being able to create at least 500k real army, with 2K working tanks, etc then there at least going to be a conversation.
and here in USA, the last thing we want is be involved in european war for the nazi fucks in Kiev who are Democratic Party clients (money laundering operations).
What you're saying is true today, at this moment..but a year ago things such as storm shadows and f16s and atacms and striking pre-2014 Russia were off the table. Today all that is on, and they are flirting with the idea of rear troops and western Ukraine missile defense. So, where are we in a year from today?
a year ago, all I heard was 'Ukraine is winning the war' , or from NATO spokespuppet 'Ukraine already defeated Putin' - remember that?
You know what a real escalation looks like? multiple carrier battle groups in both Baltic and Black Seas, without any noise, public statements ,etc. Like what USA did with Gaza, just moved its aircraft carriers into the zone and did not ask anyone and did not hold press conferences. A 100K US troops on the ground in Ukraine (a quarter of entirety of US army), _that_ is an escalation and a real one. Is anyone stopping US from doing it? we can sign an 'agreement' without puppet and just move in. Are we doing it? No and we know why. Fighting rival superpower on their territory, inside of their logistics, there they will ALWAYS have full dominance is insanely stupid and we will lose. end of story.
what you see as 'escalations' I see as token gestures, dumping 50-year-old planes on poor UA that are far beyond warranty period. Trash of Leopard-1 tanks from 1950s, really? that is the 'might of NATO'?
Yes, US/NATO is poking Russia right now with ATACOMS and Russia is poking NATO back in other areas (Red Sea, all Africa, etc), just as effectively or may be even more. Do you really think Yemeni's rub a dessert camel butt and out came supersonic/hypersonic weaponry?? or Ansarullah somehow designed and built such weaponry themselves?? Sure... And the more 'west' would push in Ukraine, the more will suddenly be found in desert (and other places) - i.e. why not sync every NATO aligned ship anywhere in Persian Gulf or Red Sea? Someone ordered escalation? Enjoy your gas at 20/gallon and see how long your economy lasts. And there is just one of many flashpoints. Look at China (the other leg of the "alliance that is not alliance but deeper than any alliance strategic partnership" (whatever that means)) doing near their province of Taiwan now.
or what Russians are doing in Africa cutting of France from resources and supplies (including critical ones). this is a huge battlefield and Ukraine is just one of many flashpoints.
Macron is (after having lost 3 maybe soon 6 French Afrique countries including Uranium rich Niger), Macron is enjoying civil war in ..France, yes a bit far from Paris in New Caledonia but this also a nickel rich island..he was forced to send 3.000 troops more will go soon and will probably have to stay? Who is behind? Macron says Azeris, is really Azeris it can only be for Israel (Macron wanted to recognize Palestine, suddenly no more...Russia...China (more likely), Australia don't think so eventhough they are very near and interested in nickel.
Those drones are used for attacks on crimea. Everyone knows it. Russia knows it. Yet they still allow it.
What Russia could do is to announce a no-fly zone over the Black Sea, but there will be no UNSC backing for it, and they love to play by the book of international law.
And right on cue Nato targeted a nuclear early warning system in the southern Krasnodar Region. Another major attack of nato onto Russia
Ukraines entire war strategy at the moment is to create situations that drag nato into the war. It's sound, because otherwise they lose unequivocally
The U.S. allowed Russian weapons to be supplied to the North Koreans, North Vietnamese, Syrians, etc in many conflicts. There is a precedent for supplying munitions to other countries. Yes, it makes the suppliers a belligerent, but the cost of bringing that belligerent into the conflict is often too high.
Supplying weapons doesn't make you a belligerent. It remains up to the opposing side to bring you into the war. It's certainly provocative to supply weapons.
I think this is what you are _actually_ trying to say.
here's a guess based on my reading of the experts' sum evaluations: Russia is absolutely going for Odessa and my guess is pretty damn soon, because it is from there and areas beyond that the fascist west is launching its missiles. Russia has to encase that Black Sea area with Russian military. Let NATO eat shit.
Talk is cheap. Russia consistently underestimate western sociopathy.
That's 100% opposite to what I understand.
What I understand is Russia has simply extended its defensive war of attrition to an offensive war of attrition. There is no need to frontally assault cities like Odessa and Kharkov if the entire Ukrainian military and and Ukraine's male population from 25 to 60 are dead, maimed, PTSD or fled to the West even as the West continues to demilitarize itself.
I don't think this is lasting as long as people think it is going to.
The desperation measures right now are pretty endgame.
Yes, I agree.
There is a palpable sense of collapse occurring in the Ukrainian military now - and I can see no possible events which will turn this around:
1) Ukraine got their money, that can't be used as either an excuse or new funding as a carrot any more.
2) Ukraine has gotten ATACMS, HIMARS, Patriots, Abrams, etc etc - everything except F16s for which the problem there is pilots and airfields. What magic new wunderwaffen can be waved as a game changer carrot now?
3) We all know, meaning the Ukrainians know, that Western troops are already in Ukraine. There simply is neither the will, nor the logistics, nor the equipment, nor the troops for even an outright NATO joining into the war to happen. This isn't 1914 with European industrial juggernaut armies, after years of mobilized preparations, waiting on a hair trigger to activate. As I've noted before: Germany fired 8 million artillery shells in one day: the first day of the Battle of Verdun. All of the West cannot even scrape together 1 million shells for Ukraine per quarter.
4) The passage of the mobilization bill won't change a damn thing since they're losing more people than they are gaining - and it is not at all clear how having NATO trainers in Ukraine will help. Isn't outdated NATO strategy exactly why the "counteroffensive" of 2023 failed?
And given Russia's air dominance plus vast stocks of drone and missiles - how exactly are these new warm bodies going to get trained when even company sized detachments grouping for say, reveille, have a very non-zero chance of absorbing a tactical strike despite being far behind the front lines?
They mistook Russian strategic withdrawal for Russian defeat, and ascribed superiority to the Ukrainians that did not exist.
von Moltke was unwilling to take the title of a great captain of history, claiming that he didn't compare to those captains, having never conducted a retreat.
Yep. That's one thing where I don't understand Putin's normally sound strategy.