I think it is almost certain he is a figurehead, and much like the French Foreign Legion or the Gurkhas, direct command control resides in the Russian Military - where most of Wagner's officers come from.
More fog of war propaganda and disinformation being fed by both sides ( mostly MSM) to eager consumers of it. I tend to follow and trust those sites that back up the narrative with facts and consistent, compelling reasoning, especially if the site has a military background. Prigozhin surely has some legitimate gripes with the Russian bureaucracy, but Russian DOD and Putin have also acted pretty quickly to fire and replace a number of ineffective Generals in the conflict. War time requires men who can act decisively with courage to meet immediate needs, and not worry about pencil pusher quotas. Putin is disposing of the deadbeats quickly. The Russians are bombing the crap out of the Ukraine military now and it is escalating, as predicted. Russians have also succeeded in moving West spy drones back to Romanian air space. 200 tons of destroyed AFU ammunition in just one missile strike is 400,000 pounds. That is a meaningful, impactful number. Russia is about to flatten the front and gear up for its own offensive later in spring or summer. There are of course unknown unknowns and asymmetrical surprises and losses will occur, but the weight of evidence points to a decisive Russian victory within 6 months. Ukraine is essentially conducting a terrorism campaign, not a real winnable war. Russia and its supporters need to keep calm and carry on, and persist in destroying the enemy systematically.
I would love your scenario, but the probability of a major FF (à la 09/11) is almost certain. Their project (mainly UK POL 3B not so the US), is the famous wet dream of 'intermarum from the Baltic to Odessa), excactly what Simplicius says. It is a bojo obsession, he even destroyed the UK economy for that purpose(uk has the highest inflation in the West by far and for 14 months now and counting).He even destroyed all the benefits of BREXIT. I continue to believe that the Brexit had one hidden goal: this war. As uk oligarchy pretty does not care one second about their peasants as they repeat this week' you are poor now but you must accept it, it will be the new normal'.
This war is now even more existential for them(because of their mistake in april 22 sending bojo to ZE with the message go for broke whatever the costs).
They did not expect the disastrous sanctions failure(cost for the West forseen at around two trillions in losses for the end of 23).If ''they' lose, their financial dollarized system is kaput and forever.Same for the political-msm-mic complex. Global south will rise quickly with no fear of the US anymore.
Even worst they are 100 % convinced that Putin 'is weak', he will never dare to use nukes though zero risk.
Talking about VVP he should better stay in Russia(no brics summit please, 'zoom' is ok), even in Russia he is not safe. Of course they will do 'something' big or launch their offensive on the 9th of May, it was my bet on this blog, one month ago. As they are in the business of twitter war.
Here(Western capital of Europe), msm are still 24/24 on the Crimea drone strike(they did not even say there was 2 missiles strikes these days or if they talk about, it is for 30 seconds with the usual ''100 missiles strikes and...200 downed').
They can NOT tolerate to lose face to such a level.
The USA and EU are collapsing, and most of it is internal rot and corruption that cannot be stopped. It doesn't matter if there is a FF operation, as that is the std MO of the West, and understood by all other nations and many in the public. FF ops are guaranteed to take place and are for domestic propaganda effect, to hide the crimes of the cabal. They will not stop what is coming. The people in the West are braindead- only 3% are awake and competent enough to turn the dead carcass into a functioning, humane state again. I know because I live in the domain of the the darkest of the cabal beasts. They will of course not go down without a vicious fight, and there will be losses. Nevertheless, there will be a multi-polar world and a dramatic increase in spirituality, common decency and humanity. Put your Armor of God on, as HE is raising his HAND.
Britain continually stirs up strife in order to provide itself with an opportunity to demonstrate to its American master how slavish it is to American interests.
The UK is a weird state over the past several decades, after they, and the rest of the European old world powers lost their Empire status in the World Wars, the US took over their old colonial status. So its as if the UK is living vicariously through their old colony the US.
Rains in the front-line territories of Ukraine in some places will go on for almost the entire May, judging by the forecasts of the Gismeteo service.
Previously, it was expected that dry weather would be already in early May, and Prigozhin, the curator of the Wagner PMC, predicted the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by May 15, since the earth should have dried out by this time.
According to the latest forecast, rainy and dry weather will alternate throughout May in the Kherson region.
Changeable weather is expected in Bakhmut: now the sun, then a little rain. Particularly heavy precipitation is tentatively expected on the 8th, 19th and 26th. The air temperature will be around +16+20 during the day.
In frontline Zaporozhye, May promises to be quite rainy throughout the month: rainfall of varying intensity is expected every week for 2-3 days. The driest week will be the first week of the month: rain is expected there only on Sunday, May 7th.
In Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, precipitation in varying degrees of intensity is expected for most of the month.
At the same time, given the warm weather (16-20 degrees) and the incomprehensible intensity of these precipitations, it is likely that the earth will dry faster.
Seems to me that weather is almost irrelevant in city or attritional style fighting. Bad weather therefore works for Russia at present. Another month of muddy conditions will grind down c 30,000 UAF soldiers and further deplete their AD and ammo. The new UAF brigades apparently are dispersed and hidden away. That is all well and good, but hardly conducive to training in large scale offensive .operations. They appear to have been moved near the front but some no doubt are in the rear training. Nevertheless, I'd say poor weather just now favours Russia on balance.
Picking out one element of this broad ranging article; what I think has been a consistent pattern of this conflict and which you cover, is that the West is not just fighting a shooting war - and indeed an economic war - but also a twitter war, a battle for information and hence hearts and minds.
I'm now thinking the recent "classified leaks" are part of that. My view is NATO is gearing up to physically partion Ukraine, with Odessa and Galicia etc being subject to some sort of "peace keeping" intervention force. Your speculation of a false flag incident supports that, horrifying as that may be. Nevertheless the pieces look to be coming into place.
This radical and dangerous escalation will need to be sold to western publics. Most people I know do not think about this at all or accept the Government/MSM line. It should be pretty easy to get the majority of voters to believe whatever their Governments want them to, and to accept via fear tactics any amount of hardship. And maybe it was always so....
I see no evidence at all the any western govt gives a damn what their constituents think. They have not done so since at the very least covid when they discovered they could make their whole population cower in fear at home for indefinite periods and all the rest of that inhuman madness.. large portions of which are still with us...
I'll have to come back a read through this again, too many facts to digest at once. One typo: He’s now being <strike>tired</strike> tied to the Prigozhin debacle (not bad at all, sight better typing than I'm capable of doing).
Prigozhin is a drama queen, preening for his run at public office. Soigu owning a PMC caught my eye, that's a conflict of interest so is it a hard fact or speculation?
I don't give anyone money. I was raised poor, and I am a cheap bastard. A point three separate wives pointed out at some length. I consequently have money. I consider your work so important I am putting some money in your tip jar. Invaluable analysis. Keep up the good work sir.
Why Is the US Wiring Ukraine With Radiation Sensors to Detect Nuclear Blasts?
So Russia would conduct a false-flag operation in order to risk accomplishing what Kiev would want to accomplish with its own false flag? Again, what would Moscow have to gain? It’s steadily winning the war and depleting western stockpiles.
But for the inhabitants of the alternate universe where Russia is on its last legs it all makes perfect sense. Speaking to that audience, the Times again invokes “nuclear experts” and “western experts” who are presumably the same aforementioned anonymous officials, and they put an ominous spin on Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive:
Nuclear experts say such defensive precautions could face their greatest test in coming weeks as the Ukrainian army launches its spring offensive. China has leaned on Russia to discontinue its nuclear saber rattling and Mr. Putin has not recently invoked a nuclear threat. But Western experts worry that Russia’s battlefield failures are making Mr. Putin, if anything, more dependent on his nuclear arsenal, and they worry that fresh setbacks could increase his willingness to pull the nuclear trigger.
One of the many alarming aspects of all this is that these “experts” certainly must know that the idea “that Russia’s battlefield failures are making Mr. Putin, if anything, more dependent on his nuclear arsenal” is complete fantasy, yet they’re peddling it anyways. Why? That’s an ominous thought...
One very important point to consider is the attitude of Medvedev, Lavrov and Russian high command also shared by Duma is that they are not waiting on Ukraine to take their sweet time for a counter offensive this was stated just recently by Medvedev and Lavrov.
I’m get the feeling Russian leadership have slow walked this war of attrition long enough.
And I agree with Scott Ritter in his recent interview Ukraine Army will be a done deal at the end of June. That’s not to say the West won’t do something to escalate but Ukraine’s ability to fight will be a done at the end of June.
The Western leadership again demonstrates how utterly dull and dense they are by thinking they can turn Russia off and on like a water spigot, there will be no ceasefire until Russia is satisfied.
Russia will not stop until the objectives Putin stated at the onset of SMO are achieved.
If the West is foolish enough to go the false flag route involving nukes of any kind I’m sure Russia will officially declare war.
And then targets in nato countries along with Europe, United States will be fair game.
Are the big mouth Washington warmongers elitist ready for an all out war with Russia and her Allies?
And it if the West does indeed try some insanity as such; I do hope that Russia will strike DC first, yes I do, and hopefully all the maniacs will be gathered together to welcome a couple of uninvited Kh-47M2 Kinzhals.
I’m sorry that I have to feel this way but the Western Empire is despicable as it represents and embodies every evil human trait imaginable.
I would hope that the Russian leadership would have enough sense not to stand around and wait for things to happen but to go out and make things happen.
Yes, the Western Empire is despicable and worse than despicable. Characterised by the politicians, the governments, that are quite simply Not Fit For Purpose which is a horrifying fact true enough.
But the most horrifying fact is that we put them there and we leave them there and we never participate in monitoring and controlling 'using' them as democratic representative democracy dictates we should.
i.e. they are as terrifying disgustingly inhumanly awful as they are because we gave and do give them licence to be so.
Physician heal thyself. Dead right. We need to get onto the job quick time.
Cutting the UK internet cables as a soft starter.I'm not so sure the gang in D C will defend the Brits.And about any EU country we already have the answer 'fuck the EU' by war fanatic Nuland.
When the US doesn't win, it simply destroys--Libya, Iraq, Syria, Viet Nam, North Korea, Afghanistan-- and leaves its adversary a smoking ruin. Plan A, the dismemberment of Russia and decoupling from China was always a long shot. The deep state planners probably understood that. Plan B is likely a costly radioactive hole on Russia's doorstep coupled with terror, sabotage and assassination. One look at history and I never underestimate the inventive ruthlessness of the Anglo-American Empire. Hey buddy, wanna buy some opium?
Syria 2.0, soon at a theatre near you: Sudan 2.0 after many others.The US is simply a de facto fascist state wanting to control 100 % of Humanity, regime changing all countries, burning earth all entities which don't want to surrender transforming them in perpetual 'failed state' or at best 'vassals' with compradores complicity(EU, Japan etc..).
I'm sure they'd be just fine if Ukraine ends up a smoking pile of ruins as that will accomplish 2 goals. 1) De-populate Ukraine as much as possible so that Western financial/agricultural/extractive concerns with help from Ukrainian oligarchs can move in and steal all the land they want once the fighting dies down and 2) Just as has been the case with Syria, the Western media will make it seem like Russia was the party responsible for ALL the carnage and it will be yet another propaganda point used to "justify" all sorts of anti-Russia actions around the world and stoke the Russophobic sentiment in the West so that future operations like Ukraine are accepted by the masses as necessary to fight the great evil known as Imperial Russia.
Either way, though - Ukrainian (and Russian) lives be damned.
It's going to be hard to sell a crock like that to the Western public if we got busy right now telling the truth as it is: NO invasion by Russian into Ukraine at all! Russia INVITED in Donbas Ukraine to help them repel invaders is what!
Which they STILL have not done! Far from 'invade Ukraine (meaning US owned Kiev Ukraine) they have not yet recovered their own Donbas Ukraine.
The simple fact: the narrative is 180 degrees wrong.
Kiev Ukraine is the invader. Kiev Ukraine is the occupier.
You'd be very surprised about that. I can't think of a single person I know IRL or in my online acquaintances who believes that to be the truth despite (in some cases) years of me trying to get through to them. Coupled with the near total lockdown on the information ecosystem, the silencing of dissenting voices, the SEO erasure of previously widely available articles, and essentially the re-writing of history that has been taking place since 2001 and picking up pace dramatically since 2014. TLDR version is that the Western public is for the most part already sold and it's only a matter of pushing them over the edge with the next big "provocation" by Russia.
Completely agree. I thought Iraq 2.0 was bad back in '02/'03. Then came Maidan/Crimea, then COVID, and finally the coup d'etat, the Russian SMO. They've had years to work on this system of information totalitarianism and they've done so while distracting us with "But look at China!!!"
I've just about lost the thread and am in doubt as to what I was replying to when I posted. And I think my post very badly worded for that alone if nothing else.
To attempt to clarify:
I think the whole western world to be sold on the lying MSM and US narrative but not from reasoning but from dumb lazy inertia: finding the easy road.
I believe we could reverse this if we tried hard enough and should each/all try with every post we ever make anywhere.
With that in mind I post this in most of my post: I have it permanently set on my desktop for immediate copy and paste, I think we all should have some such text and we all should employ the tactic..
Not because I'm silly enough to think it would immediately change things but because it is doing something, however tiny... and what else can we do?
====
Don't let the way anyone talks make you think this is 'Russia v Ukraine' because it is NOT.
When he says 'Russian' forces he really means ' Donbas Ukrainian AND Russian' forces.
DONBAS Ukrainians and Russians.
They fight together, side by side.
The Russians helping the Donbas Ukrainians repel the invading Kiev Ukrainians.
The Kiev Ukrainians (those are the ones the Americans call 'the Ukrainians' and the ones who are the invaders, the aggressors, the extremists and the Nazis, the Stefan Bandera (look him up) worshippers, have been occupying Donbas Ukrainian land since 2014.
When he says 'Ukrainian' he just about always means only the Kiev Ukrainians. This is in line with the lying USA and Kiev narrative which wants you to think there are only two players: Ukraine and Russia. Everyone talks like this. It is a propaganda coup.
No. There are three players:
'North' Ukraine we might call it which is Kiev Ukraine and extremist Ukraine and 'nationalist' Ukraine which is sworn to building a 'pure' Ukrainian State after the style of the Nazis building a 'pure Aryan German state. The decided to do that by oppressing, re-educating, victimising the Southern, Donbas Ukrainians who traditionally have much Russian connection.
'South' Ukraine we might call it which are the Donbas Ukrainians the North decided to 'ethnically cleanse' and exterminate for the crime of having Russian connections.
And Russia.
Three players. At the centre. And a host of malignant evil manipulators, leeches, provocateurs and profiteers on the side extending from USA to Kiev and encompassing the whole Western world.
Now the Russians are helping the Donbas Ukrainians because someone should and we won't, we ignored them for eight years and longer and because of the Russian connection and because the whole thing is an attack on Russia anyway after the style of putting missiles in Cuba was an 'attack' on the USA and we know what they thought of it.
So okay? 'Russian' means 'Donbas Ukrainians and Russian help'
'Ukrainian' means Kiev Ukrainians and USA help and every pusillanimous stinking little lapdog of theirs.
And the Donbas Ukrainians just don't figure in his narrative generally. But they should. Because that's what started it all.
And the fact that the fighting is ALL on Donbas land that Kiev/USA has invaded generally doesn't figure either.
The fact that there's not one Russian boot on Ukrainian land where it was not invited and welcomed generally doesn't get a mention either.
Just saying. Because without forewarning listening/watching could give you the impression this is simply 'Ukraine' fighting off 'Russian' aggression.
Which is what the evil empire wants you to think. And which is entirely what it is NOT.
If you want to help Ukraine and Ukrainians help bring it to a STOP. Keep Ukrainians - on BOTH sides - ALIVE.
Kiev and Washington want dead bodies. Let them fight each other. The world will be well rid of them.
Donbass Ukraine and Kiev Ukraine; yeah I like that. In fact there are two Ukraines, a nth and a sth (approximately speaking).
Compare this to Viet Nam where the narrative today still states the South were helped in their defense against the North, when in fact the Nth/Sth narrative was a US construct. Much the same for Korea too.
Is that right? I am very ignorant as to the details of both those affairs. I think here there's no doubt though. This time I am getting reports via Telegram that are virtually on the spot reports from the trenches. And much, much more real coverage of history and facts.
Despite the USA etc and the MSM total dedication to omitting, deleting and obscuring the truth we still get big helpings of it when we look in the right places don't we?
I'd hate to think I was deceiving myself with my understanding of the situation but I'm confident I am not.
I'm reading more and more statements(by insiders with real power and at govt positions ,front or shadow, that something big(so big)in the bankrupted financial system is about to happen between August and Oct, even Ch Lagarde head of IMF talked about that with the RU Pranksters (a digital euro or even transatlantic currency), this DC would provide them total control on us once and forever. In reaction I guess the extended BRICS + will go on with his own? Of course a major diversion is needed. When a nuke FF or worse happen, all financial markets will collapse(but on purpose, remember 09/11 and multiple insider manipulations the week before, they even sold the WTC which was suddenly insured for 'terror act' , airlines stocks have been shorted etc..).
I agree because there's some big things happening in the financial industry behind the scenes. I wouldnt' be surprised if they time it with the 2024 elections to try to spin them off together, maybe delay or get rid of U.S. elections somehow
Yes, I've long thought the USA needs to feel a few body blows, take a few hits. But how when it is that isolated island? I think the answer is the 700 bases via which it exerts its baleful influence.
But how hit them without precipitating a nuclear war? Well that thing's a wildcard anyway but the thing to do would be to hit them via third parties.
There's plenty of them around would be happy to have a go.
The USA could know well who was behind it all but deniability could be complete. Works for them. Works for them, to their own satisfaction, even if deniability is threadbare.
Everyone already knows this entire war instigated by the Western countries using Ukraine has become an existential fight for the sovereignty of Russian people.
However we mustn’t forget the entire multipolar Eurasian effort depends on Russia completely eliminating Western intervention and interruption.
So we Chins very interested in Russia’s absolute victory.
Not particularly relevant to the main point, but that is a bloody magnificent moustache the Marshall has. We should bring back facial hair as a marker of manly status.
Just the acknowledgement of the "nuclear detectors/sensors" is troubling. I would think that probably wouldn't even be necessary unless you are trying to find after effects of things like spent DU rounds. Full disclose I don't know shit but I do understand the US is a Propaganda Paper Tiger. Our betters don't have to be good they will have their media write a story about it instead.
I just assumed if any nukes were to go off most of the world would know that pretty quick without the need for sensors placed on battlefield vehicles. Again, my limited knowledge. It is worrisome though because it has the feel of a setup in motion.
My question is what does Putin/Russia do once they have been accused and condemned by half of the world for using WMD's. Does it really allow the US anymore wiggle room aside from more sanctions from the West? The US has become the "boy who cried wolf" too many times and much of the world doesn't believe them and never will again for what I can see. Again, just trying to understand how that would be favorable to the US and degrading for the Russians?
It does nothing I'd think. 'Half of the world' you say. That'd be half of the Western World? Or you mean the whole Western World? Either way - it's the Western World. Which Russia is doing without from necessity. It would just continue to do so. And the 'rest of the world' would see and know.
I meant condemned by the entire Western World (half the world for simplicity sake). Simplicius is right to take notice of those stories about adding these sensors/devices. It smells like a setup to me based on everything I have learned about my country since 2020. Up until then never believed my government to be this bad. I never trusted it but thought it generally benign.
I am very confident The Western Powers are getting worried to the point of desperate. I recall when Klaus made his introduction (to me at least) in 2021 talking about the Great Reset. That was a helluva stupid thing to do as they have mostly kept quiet up until that point. To me its absolute proof these bastards thought it was all a done deal and is a demonstration of their hubris. It has to be hard knowing how close they were to conquering humanity and to see if slip away.
Trying to figure out if anyone has any idea what their end game might be with respect to planted false flags with nukes. I think Russia may have stopped an earlier plan when US?NATO were seeding Western media with the "Russia using nukes" talk.
Western 'World' (so called) is less than 15% of World population.And not all are sheeps even in the Western World.About sanctions, there is nothing left to sanction.I would add that what they call 'sanctions' are illegal, only sanctions voted at the UN are real sanctions.Sanctions here are an act of war, like the NS sabotage and multiple terror acts by Isis Ukraine, de facto a terrorist state.Even Hezbollah today signed an agreement with the Saudis..G7 tried to force an exports embargo but even vassals Japan and the all EU refused. Of course the goal of this nuke FF would be to force a World embargo at the UN and why not a NATO declaration of war?The only goal since Maidan is regime change in Moscow as they naively believe once VVP gone suddenly a new Eltsin will show up and the 'golden years' are back, let's steal all minerals, energy etc..and once VVP gone (in their mind) China will let Taiwan go (with his chips industry).
So much clutter to sort through. My addition is that any 'offensive' will be actively supported, and probably fought, by NATO forces (certainly US ones) embedded. There will be 'F-16s' as US does not fight without air superiority. Russia will pull back, as they do, and keep fighting, until 2030 at least. I've changed my mind that Russia would accept ceasefire, they have changed policy and won't allow a pause in fighting that would permit the west to take a breather or manipulate NATO membership for UKR. No shock and awe from RU, just grind.
" My addition is that any 'offensive' will be actively supported, and probably fought, by NATO forces (certainly US ones) embedded. There will be 'F-16s' as US does not fight without air superiority"
Introducing F16s does not equate to air superiority at all.
Yes, agree, thus the inverted commas - any and all NATO aircraft will be available if they decide to back the offensive to the hilt. Only the thinnest veneer of plausible deniability seems OK at this point. The unknown is will they back it up, or let UKR go solo, sort of.?
Well it certainly would cut to the chase scene...doubtful though, simply because being exposed as a paper tiger is the one things that they cannot afford to do. Then the jig is up and all the "little people" will simply say GTFO of my country or else.
Great sitrep as always. Quick question: What difference does it really make if the Ukrainians have a lot of troops and a few tanks if they don't have air cover or sufficient artillery support? I mean seriously, that's the recipe for a meatgrinder on turbo since Russia clearly has plenty of ammo and have dug in and fortified in many places. So what's the plan, just send waves of kamikaze grunts running across the plain and trying to overrun Russian positions with sheer numbers? I can't imagine the amount of casualties that will be involved. That leaves me with two observations: 1) If the US and NATO don't plan to actually get involved with air support and artillery (that they don't have in sufficient quantities anyway) then this amounts to nothing more than a large de-population project on the part of the Western puppet masters. 2) If there is actually an offensive coming and the West wants Ukraine to have any success at all, they will be "forced" to enter themselves per my #1 and it could go nukular to use George W. Bush's term.
Don't forget that Kherson was the first 'meat grinder' in june(end of), july and august last year.Ukies lost many manpower, probably less than now in Bakhmut but thousands. In the Karkhov 'victory' they also lost many once they entered the place enough deep.
Well, the idea is that a suicidal force that doesn't care about casualties can overrun a cautious/safety first force even if they don't have air cover. Ukraine could do a kamikaze style head-first rush and hope to get Russian forces to pull back due to them being more casualty averse. Not saying that's what will happen, but that's UA's thinking and only chance.
Let's assume they do that kamikazi charge of the NAZI Brigade, and RF pull back, then what? The Russians will pour steel rain down on them from their new positions just as they did in their last tactical retreat.
Prigozhin's antics remind me of Patton's during WW2 as he lobbied constantly for 3rd Army to be the spear tip to the point where he became a massive headache. The upshot is I ignore his antics as they distract rather than inform.
On the nuclear rhetoric, Lavrov and Zakharova weekly reinforce Russia and China's message (China also issues a similar weekly message to the world) that nuclear war is unwinnable and won't be utilized by them unless provoked by nuke usage by NATO. Of course, the Russian and Chinese messages are mostly censored in the West but are well known by 85% of humanity.
The continual invocation of provably false history about Ukraine turns off ever more people in the West. The fact that the Outlaw US Empire invaded Ukraine via the 2014 coup is easy to access, and the confessions about Minsk 2 sabotage by the West to arm Ukraine for more war is also easy to discover, which is what an increasing number of people are doing, either on their own or via websites publishing the truth of the matter, which are also escalating in number. The next Narrative will easily convince those who wrote it, but that isn't its purpose. The fragility of the West's financial system is becoming clearer daily as more people learn. And then there's the escalation of political ferment throughout NATO.
The narrative that Russia's weakening is what's weakening, not Russia. Merely following Putin's events is enough, but the world was also treated to Lavrov's appearance at the UNSC last week which again forcefully destroyed the West's narrative and pointed out its massive illegalities and immoralities that got full play in RoW. Nor can the West ignore the escalation of the rate of dedollarization as even Yellen was forced to admit in speeches and articles that BigLie Media didn't censor. And lastly there's the rise of a second oppositional front that's not Trump and consists of RFKjr and Tucker Carlson, two seemingly different but actually rather similar people who share the same general outlook when it comes to the state of the nation.
It would be nice to know what the actual outcome of all those missile attacks was. That they were aimed at troop and equipment concentrations is obvious. When the Bakhmut siege ends this week another venue will then become the focus, but which one? IMO, the use of Russia's strategic bombers was to try and get the Ukies to use their new patriots so they could then be eliminated. Apparently, the bait wasn't taken.
You're right the aftermath of the strikes is very uncommonly quiet. Ukraine did issue particularly stringent new regulations in regards to posting footage/info of any missile 'arrivals' but the outage from both sides is a little strange nonetheless. The only thing we have strong confirmation of is the stuff hit in Pavlograd because it's obvious to any expert on the video footage that that was ammo explosions going up. And Pavlograd is certainly a key juncture which receives shipments from the West and distributes them throughout the 'JTO' zone
I think it is more than a German/European phenomena. It is a Western phenomena.
The MSM from New York to London, from Berlin to Sydney, are all singing from the same hymn sheet. The rest of world has always had a more nuanced view of the conflict. Now it's starting to have a pro-Russian view.
What I find most dispiriting is the Western MSM's arrogance and almost complete denial of Western decline compared to South-East Asia's growing economic power. Thailand has come on leaps and bounds over the last 20 years. India is booming. Even Bangladesh is now doing well. The MSM has a perverse view of the world based on a picture 60 years out of date.
An Indian engineer summed it for me recently when he told me:
"Last year I took year my family to California for a holiday. Seeing the poverty and homelessness on the streets of Los Angeles and San Francisco made me think:
"America is like a third world country"
O
I wonder if the average Ukrainian realises that their great hope for victory, the supposed economic super power, the United States, is now perceived as a poverty stricken, third-world country, by Indians ?
Podcast rundown on the various Russian PMCs
https://greydynamics.com/episode-31-russian-private-military-contractors-in-ukraine-with-alec-bertina/
A recent report - unverified - has it that Prigozhin is not reall in charge of the Wagner group. Is there anything to that?
I think it is almost certain he is a figurehead, and much like the French Foreign Legion or the Gurkhas, direct command control resides in the Russian Military - where most of Wagner's officers come from.
Depends what you mean by 'in charge'. He's an owner/ceo figure, but he's certainly not the commander or military strategist. In my previous report: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/western-experts-new-fear-russia-is
I outlined that "ex"-Russian GRU commander Anton Yelizarov codename Lotus is thought to be the actual commander in charge of Wagner operations
More fog of war propaganda and disinformation being fed by both sides ( mostly MSM) to eager consumers of it. I tend to follow and trust those sites that back up the narrative with facts and consistent, compelling reasoning, especially if the site has a military background. Prigozhin surely has some legitimate gripes with the Russian bureaucracy, but Russian DOD and Putin have also acted pretty quickly to fire and replace a number of ineffective Generals in the conflict. War time requires men who can act decisively with courage to meet immediate needs, and not worry about pencil pusher quotas. Putin is disposing of the deadbeats quickly. The Russians are bombing the crap out of the Ukraine military now and it is escalating, as predicted. Russians have also succeeded in moving West spy drones back to Romanian air space. 200 tons of destroyed AFU ammunition in just one missile strike is 400,000 pounds. That is a meaningful, impactful number. Russia is about to flatten the front and gear up for its own offensive later in spring or summer. There are of course unknown unknowns and asymmetrical surprises and losses will occur, but the weight of evidence points to a decisive Russian victory within 6 months. Ukraine is essentially conducting a terrorism campaign, not a real winnable war. Russia and its supporters need to keep calm and carry on, and persist in destroying the enemy systematically.
I would love your scenario, but the probability of a major FF (à la 09/11) is almost certain. Their project (mainly UK POL 3B not so the US), is the famous wet dream of 'intermarum from the Baltic to Odessa), excactly what Simplicius says. It is a bojo obsession, he even destroyed the UK economy for that purpose(uk has the highest inflation in the West by far and for 14 months now and counting).He even destroyed all the benefits of BREXIT. I continue to believe that the Brexit had one hidden goal: this war. As uk oligarchy pretty does not care one second about their peasants as they repeat this week' you are poor now but you must accept it, it will be the new normal'.
This war is now even more existential for them(because of their mistake in april 22 sending bojo to ZE with the message go for broke whatever the costs).
They did not expect the disastrous sanctions failure(cost for the West forseen at around two trillions in losses for the end of 23).If ''they' lose, their financial dollarized system is kaput and forever.Same for the political-msm-mic complex. Global south will rise quickly with no fear of the US anymore.
Even worst they are 100 % convinced that Putin 'is weak', he will never dare to use nukes though zero risk.
Talking about VVP he should better stay in Russia(no brics summit please, 'zoom' is ok), even in Russia he is not safe. Of course they will do 'something' big or launch their offensive on the 9th of May, it was my bet on this blog, one month ago. As they are in the business of twitter war.
Here(Western capital of Europe), msm are still 24/24 on the Crimea drone strike(they did not even say there was 2 missiles strikes these days or if they talk about, it is for 30 seconds with the usual ''100 missiles strikes and...200 downed').
They can NOT tolerate to lose face to such a level.
The USA and EU are collapsing, and most of it is internal rot and corruption that cannot be stopped. It doesn't matter if there is a FF operation, as that is the std MO of the West, and understood by all other nations and many in the public. FF ops are guaranteed to take place and are for domestic propaganda effect, to hide the crimes of the cabal. They will not stop what is coming. The people in the West are braindead- only 3% are awake and competent enough to turn the dead carcass into a functioning, humane state again. I know because I live in the domain of the the darkest of the cabal beasts. They will of course not go down without a vicious fight, and there will be losses. Nevertheless, there will be a multi-polar world and a dramatic increase in spirituality, common decency and humanity. Put your Armor of God on, as HE is raising his HAND.
Well then I guess that makes me a 3%er
👍All aboard.
Britain continually stirs up strife in order to provide itself with an opportunity to demonstrate to its American master how slavish it is to American interests.
Poland similar.
Yep, you're correct.. The last time we stood up to the Americans and said no was Vietnam and I suspect that had something to do with payback for Suez.
Johnson has turned out to be a bloodthirsty and sinister as the Blair creature.
Well, subsequent British PMs have more or less said that the role of Great Britain is that of bitch to the United States.
The term "special relationship" is often used.
"Speical relationship" = Hooker and pimp.
+ 3B and Prague + Bratislava not very far.
The UK is a weird state over the past several decades, after they, and the rest of the European old world powers lost their Empire status in the World Wars, the US took over their old colonial status. So its as if the UK is living vicariously through their old colony the US.
I believe that at least one UK PM has said as much.
Rains in the front-line territories of Ukraine in some places will go on for almost the entire May, judging by the forecasts of the Gismeteo service.
Previously, it was expected that dry weather would be already in early May, and Prigozhin, the curator of the Wagner PMC, predicted the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by May 15, since the earth should have dried out by this time.
According to the latest forecast, rainy and dry weather will alternate throughout May in the Kherson region.
Changeable weather is expected in Bakhmut: now the sun, then a little rain. Particularly heavy precipitation is tentatively expected on the 8th, 19th and 26th. The air temperature will be around +16+20 during the day.
In frontline Zaporozhye, May promises to be quite rainy throughout the month: rainfall of varying intensity is expected every week for 2-3 days. The driest week will be the first week of the month: rain is expected there only on Sunday, May 7th.
In Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, precipitation in varying degrees of intensity is expected for most of the month.
At the same time, given the warm weather (16-20 degrees) and the incomprehensible intensity of these precipitations, it is likely that the earth will dry faster.
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1652965532855943168
Seems to me that weather is almost irrelevant in city or attritional style fighting. Bad weather therefore works for Russia at present. Another month of muddy conditions will grind down c 30,000 UAF soldiers and further deplete their AD and ammo. The new UAF brigades apparently are dispersed and hidden away. That is all well and good, but hardly conducive to training in large scale offensive .operations. They appear to have been moved near the front but some no doubt are in the rear training. Nevertheless, I'd say poor weather just now favours Russia on balance.
Picking out one element of this broad ranging article; what I think has been a consistent pattern of this conflict and which you cover, is that the West is not just fighting a shooting war - and indeed an economic war - but also a twitter war, a battle for information and hence hearts and minds.
I'm now thinking the recent "classified leaks" are part of that. My view is NATO is gearing up to physically partion Ukraine, with Odessa and Galicia etc being subject to some sort of "peace keeping" intervention force. Your speculation of a false flag incident supports that, horrifying as that may be. Nevertheless the pieces look to be coming into place.
This radical and dangerous escalation will need to be sold to western publics. Most people I know do not think about this at all or accept the Government/MSM line. It should be pretty easy to get the majority of voters to believe whatever their Governments want them to, and to accept via fear tactics any amount of hardship. And maybe it was always so....
Even if they do, just what result? Send the US Army? Really? Set up another 20,000 twitter bots?
Even some false flag that somehow allows US to go nuclear and then what, Russia won't? And China will have to join in.
Maybe West can declare victory and shut down all media - total censorship - until the victory soaks in. Good time to ramp up the coup in the US.
I see no evidence at all the any western govt gives a damn what their constituents think. They have not done so since at the very least covid when they discovered they could make their whole population cower in fear at home for indefinite periods and all the rest of that inhuman madness.. large portions of which are still with us...
The upside being that the BranchCovidians will keep taking boosters...thus opening up more parking spaces for the rest of us.
I'll have to come back a read through this again, too many facts to digest at once. One typo: He’s now being <strike>tired</strike> tied to the Prigozhin debacle (not bad at all, sight better typing than I'm capable of doing).
Prigozhin is a drama queen, preening for his run at public office. Soigu owning a PMC caught my eye, that's a conflict of interest so is it a hard fact or speculation?
Ouch, forgot HTML markup doesn't work on comments.
Thx, fixed.
I don't give anyone money. I was raised poor, and I am a cheap bastard. A point three separate wives pointed out at some length. I consequently have money. I consider your work so important I am putting some money in your tip jar. Invaluable analysis. Keep up the good work sir.
Thanks very much.
Immeasurable, thank you. He is, the BEST, stay the course, my friends❤️🇷🇺💙
Why Is the US Wiring Ukraine With Radiation Sensors to Detect Nuclear Blasts?
So Russia would conduct a false-flag operation in order to risk accomplishing what Kiev would want to accomplish with its own false flag? Again, what would Moscow have to gain? It’s steadily winning the war and depleting western stockpiles.
But for the inhabitants of the alternate universe where Russia is on its last legs it all makes perfect sense. Speaking to that audience, the Times again invokes “nuclear experts” and “western experts” who are presumably the same aforementioned anonymous officials, and they put an ominous spin on Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive:
Nuclear experts say such defensive precautions could face their greatest test in coming weeks as the Ukrainian army launches its spring offensive. China has leaned on Russia to discontinue its nuclear saber rattling and Mr. Putin has not recently invoked a nuclear threat. But Western experts worry that Russia’s battlefield failures are making Mr. Putin, if anything, more dependent on his nuclear arsenal, and they worry that fresh setbacks could increase his willingness to pull the nuclear trigger.
One of the many alarming aspects of all this is that these “experts” certainly must know that the idea “that Russia’s battlefield failures are making Mr. Putin, if anything, more dependent on his nuclear arsenal” is complete fantasy, yet they’re peddling it anyways. Why? That’s an ominous thought...
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/05/why-is-the-us-wiring-ukraine-with-radiation-sensors-to-detect-nuclear-blasts.html
Why do I get this sinking feeling that it will be used like the PCR test....?!
One very important point to consider is the attitude of Medvedev, Lavrov and Russian high command also shared by Duma is that they are not waiting on Ukraine to take their sweet time for a counter offensive this was stated just recently by Medvedev and Lavrov.
I’m get the feeling Russian leadership have slow walked this war of attrition long enough.
And I agree with Scott Ritter in his recent interview Ukraine Army will be a done deal at the end of June. That’s not to say the West won’t do something to escalate but Ukraine’s ability to fight will be a done at the end of June.
The Western leadership again demonstrates how utterly dull and dense they are by thinking they can turn Russia off and on like a water spigot, there will be no ceasefire until Russia is satisfied.
Russia will not stop until the objectives Putin stated at the onset of SMO are achieved.
If the West is foolish enough to go the false flag route involving nukes of any kind I’m sure Russia will officially declare war.
And then targets in nato countries along with Europe, United States will be fair game.
Are the big mouth Washington warmongers elitist ready for an all out war with Russia and her Allies?
And it if the West does indeed try some insanity as such; I do hope that Russia will strike DC first, yes I do, and hopefully all the maniacs will be gathered together to welcome a couple of uninvited Kh-47M2 Kinzhals.
I’m sorry that I have to feel this way but the Western Empire is despicable as it represents and embodies every evil human trait imaginable.
I would hope that the Russian leadership would have enough sense not to stand around and wait for things to happen but to go out and make things happen.
Yes, the Western Empire is despicable and worse than despicable. Characterised by the politicians, the governments, that are quite simply Not Fit For Purpose which is a horrifying fact true enough.
But the most horrifying fact is that we put them there and we leave them there and we never participate in monitoring and controlling 'using' them as democratic representative democracy dictates we should.
i.e. they are as terrifying disgustingly inhumanly awful as they are because we gave and do give them licence to be so.
Physician heal thyself. Dead right. We need to get onto the job quick time.
Cutting the UK internet cables as a soft starter.I'm not so sure the gang in D C will defend the Brits.And about any EU country we already have the answer 'fuck the EU' by war fanatic Nuland.
When the US doesn't win, it simply destroys--Libya, Iraq, Syria, Viet Nam, North Korea, Afghanistan-- and leaves its adversary a smoking ruin. Plan A, the dismemberment of Russia and decoupling from China was always a long shot. The deep state planners probably understood that. Plan B is likely a costly radioactive hole on Russia's doorstep coupled with terror, sabotage and assassination. One look at history and I never underestimate the inventive ruthlessness of the Anglo-American Empire. Hey buddy, wanna buy some opium?
The "smoking ruin" is the win. Failed state. That might well be the plan for the home front in the US as well.
Syria 2.0, soon at a theatre near you: Sudan 2.0 after many others.The US is simply a de facto fascist state wanting to control 100 % of Humanity, regime changing all countries, burning earth all entities which don't want to surrender transforming them in perpetual 'failed state' or at best 'vassals' with compradores complicity(EU, Japan etc..).
They simply destroy everything in order to prevent it from prospering.
It's fuggin evil and when taken to the extreme, it results in the Sampson Option.
The best outcome is for the USA to get it nose good and broken and go home where it may (or may not) attend to it mounting wave of domestic problems.
I'm sure they'd be just fine if Ukraine ends up a smoking pile of ruins as that will accomplish 2 goals. 1) De-populate Ukraine as much as possible so that Western financial/agricultural/extractive concerns with help from Ukrainian oligarchs can move in and steal all the land they want once the fighting dies down and 2) Just as has been the case with Syria, the Western media will make it seem like Russia was the party responsible for ALL the carnage and it will be yet another propaganda point used to "justify" all sorts of anti-Russia actions around the world and stoke the Russophobic sentiment in the West so that future operations like Ukraine are accepted by the masses as necessary to fight the great evil known as Imperial Russia.
Either way, though - Ukrainian (and Russian) lives be damned.
It's going to be hard to sell a crock like that to the Western public if we got busy right now telling the truth as it is: NO invasion by Russian into Ukraine at all! Russia INVITED in Donbas Ukraine to help them repel invaders is what!
Which they STILL have not done! Far from 'invade Ukraine (meaning US owned Kiev Ukraine) they have not yet recovered their own Donbas Ukraine.
The simple fact: the narrative is 180 degrees wrong.
Kiev Ukraine is the invader. Kiev Ukraine is the occupier.
You'd be very surprised about that. I can't think of a single person I know IRL or in my online acquaintances who believes that to be the truth despite (in some cases) years of me trying to get through to them. Coupled with the near total lockdown on the information ecosystem, the silencing of dissenting voices, the SEO erasure of previously widely available articles, and essentially the re-writing of history that has been taking place since 2001 and picking up pace dramatically since 2014. TLDR version is that the Western public is for the most part already sold and it's only a matter of pushing them over the edge with the next big "provocation" by Russia.
We are witnessing the biggest mass manipulation in World History, even worse than covid.
Completely agree. I thought Iraq 2.0 was bad back in '02/'03. Then came Maidan/Crimea, then COVID, and finally the coup d'etat, the Russian SMO. They've had years to work on this system of information totalitarianism and they've done so while distracting us with "But look at China!!!"
Next step and final probably: great reset (called jubilee in the Middle Age), let's cancell the all ponzi debts scheme.
I've just about lost the thread and am in doubt as to what I was replying to when I posted. And I think my post very badly worded for that alone if nothing else.
To attempt to clarify:
I think the whole western world to be sold on the lying MSM and US narrative but not from reasoning but from dumb lazy inertia: finding the easy road.
I believe we could reverse this if we tried hard enough and should each/all try with every post we ever make anywhere.
With that in mind I post this in most of my post: I have it permanently set on my desktop for immediate copy and paste, I think we all should have some such text and we all should employ the tactic..
Not because I'm silly enough to think it would immediately change things but because it is doing something, however tiny... and what else can we do?
====
Don't let the way anyone talks make you think this is 'Russia v Ukraine' because it is NOT.
When he says 'Russian' forces he really means ' Donbas Ukrainian AND Russian' forces.
DONBAS Ukrainians and Russians.
They fight together, side by side.
The Russians helping the Donbas Ukrainians repel the invading Kiev Ukrainians.
The Kiev Ukrainians (those are the ones the Americans call 'the Ukrainians' and the ones who are the invaders, the aggressors, the extremists and the Nazis, the Stefan Bandera (look him up) worshippers, have been occupying Donbas Ukrainian land since 2014.
When he says 'Ukrainian' he just about always means only the Kiev Ukrainians. This is in line with the lying USA and Kiev narrative which wants you to think there are only two players: Ukraine and Russia. Everyone talks like this. It is a propaganda coup.
No. There are three players:
'North' Ukraine we might call it which is Kiev Ukraine and extremist Ukraine and 'nationalist' Ukraine which is sworn to building a 'pure' Ukrainian State after the style of the Nazis building a 'pure Aryan German state. The decided to do that by oppressing, re-educating, victimising the Southern, Donbas Ukrainians who traditionally have much Russian connection.
'South' Ukraine we might call it which are the Donbas Ukrainians the North decided to 'ethnically cleanse' and exterminate for the crime of having Russian connections.
And Russia.
Three players. At the centre. And a host of malignant evil manipulators, leeches, provocateurs and profiteers on the side extending from USA to Kiev and encompassing the whole Western world.
Now the Russians are helping the Donbas Ukrainians because someone should and we won't, we ignored them for eight years and longer and because of the Russian connection and because the whole thing is an attack on Russia anyway after the style of putting missiles in Cuba was an 'attack' on the USA and we know what they thought of it.
So okay? 'Russian' means 'Donbas Ukrainians and Russian help'
'Ukrainian' means Kiev Ukrainians and USA help and every pusillanimous stinking little lapdog of theirs.
And the Donbas Ukrainians just don't figure in his narrative generally. But they should. Because that's what started it all.
And the fact that the fighting is ALL on Donbas land that Kiev/USA has invaded generally doesn't figure either.
The fact that there's not one Russian boot on Ukrainian land where it was not invited and welcomed generally doesn't get a mention either.
Just saying. Because without forewarning listening/watching could give you the impression this is simply 'Ukraine' fighting off 'Russian' aggression.
Which is what the evil empire wants you to think. And which is entirely what it is NOT.
If you want to help Ukraine and Ukrainians help bring it to a STOP. Keep Ukrainians - on BOTH sides - ALIVE.
Kiev and Washington want dead bodies. Let them fight each other. The world will be well rid of them.
Donbass Ukraine and Kiev Ukraine; yeah I like that. In fact there are two Ukraines, a nth and a sth (approximately speaking).
Compare this to Viet Nam where the narrative today still states the South were helped in their defense against the North, when in fact the Nth/Sth narrative was a US construct. Much the same for Korea too.
Is that right? I am very ignorant as to the details of both those affairs. I think here there's no doubt though. This time I am getting reports via Telegram that are virtually on the spot reports from the trenches. And much, much more real coverage of history and facts.
Despite the USA etc and the MSM total dedication to omitting, deleting and obscuring the truth we still get big helpings of it when we look in the right places don't we?
I'd hate to think I was deceiving myself with my understanding of the situation but I'm confident I am not.
I'm reading more and more statements(by insiders with real power and at govt positions ,front or shadow, that something big(so big)in the bankrupted financial system is about to happen between August and Oct, even Ch Lagarde head of IMF talked about that with the RU Pranksters (a digital euro or even transatlantic currency), this DC would provide them total control on us once and forever. In reaction I guess the extended BRICS + will go on with his own? Of course a major diversion is needed. When a nuke FF or worse happen, all financial markets will collapse(but on purpose, remember 09/11 and multiple insider manipulations the week before, they even sold the WTC which was suddenly insured for 'terror act' , airlines stocks have been shorted etc..).
I agree because there's some big things happening in the financial industry behind the scenes. I wouldnt' be surprised if they time it with the 2024 elections to try to spin them off together, maybe delay or get rid of U.S. elections somehow
Well Team Blue just cancelled the presidential debates so there's that...
Yes, I've long thought the USA needs to feel a few body blows, take a few hits. But how when it is that isolated island? I think the answer is the 700 bases via which it exerts its baleful influence.
But how hit them without precipitating a nuclear war? Well that thing's a wildcard anyway but the thing to do would be to hit them via third parties.
There's plenty of them around would be happy to have a go.
The USA could know well who was behind it all but deniability could be complete. Works for them. Works for them, to their own satisfaction, even if deniability is threadbare.
Everyone already knows this entire war instigated by the Western countries using Ukraine has become an existential fight for the sovereignty of Russian people.
However we mustn’t forget the entire multipolar Eurasian effort depends on Russia completely eliminating Western intervention and interruption.
So we Chins very interested in Russia’s absolute victory.
https://globalsouth.co/2023/05/01/what-china-is-really-playing-at-in-ukraine/
Not particularly relevant to the main point, but that is a bloody magnificent moustache the Marshall has. We should bring back facial hair as a marker of manly status.
Just the acknowledgement of the "nuclear detectors/sensors" is troubling. I would think that probably wouldn't even be necessary unless you are trying to find after effects of things like spent DU rounds. Full disclose I don't know shit but I do understand the US is a Propaganda Paper Tiger. Our betters don't have to be good they will have their media write a story about it instead.
I just assumed if any nukes were to go off most of the world would know that pretty quick without the need for sensors placed on battlefield vehicles. Again, my limited knowledge. It is worrisome though because it has the feel of a setup in motion.
My question is what does Putin/Russia do once they have been accused and condemned by half of the world for using WMD's. Does it really allow the US anymore wiggle room aside from more sanctions from the West? The US has become the "boy who cried wolf" too many times and much of the world doesn't believe them and never will again for what I can see. Again, just trying to understand how that would be favorable to the US and degrading for the Russians?
It does nothing I'd think. 'Half of the world' you say. That'd be half of the Western World? Or you mean the whole Western World? Either way - it's the Western World. Which Russia is doing without from necessity. It would just continue to do so. And the 'rest of the world' would see and know.
I meant condemned by the entire Western World (half the world for simplicity sake). Simplicius is right to take notice of those stories about adding these sensors/devices. It smells like a setup to me based on everything I have learned about my country since 2020. Up until then never believed my government to be this bad. I never trusted it but thought it generally benign.
I am very confident The Western Powers are getting worried to the point of desperate. I recall when Klaus made his introduction (to me at least) in 2021 talking about the Great Reset. That was a helluva stupid thing to do as they have mostly kept quiet up until that point. To me its absolute proof these bastards thought it was all a done deal and is a demonstration of their hubris. It has to be hard knowing how close they were to conquering humanity and to see if slip away.
Trying to figure out if anyone has any idea what their end game might be with respect to planted false flags with nukes. I think Russia may have stopped an earlier plan when US?NATO were seeding Western media with the "Russia using nukes" talk.
Western 'World' (so called) is less than 15% of World population.And not all are sheeps even in the Western World.About sanctions, there is nothing left to sanction.I would add that what they call 'sanctions' are illegal, only sanctions voted at the UN are real sanctions.Sanctions here are an act of war, like the NS sabotage and multiple terror acts by Isis Ukraine, de facto a terrorist state.Even Hezbollah today signed an agreement with the Saudis..G7 tried to force an exports embargo but even vassals Japan and the all EU refused. Of course the goal of this nuke FF would be to force a World embargo at the UN and why not a NATO declaration of war?The only goal since Maidan is regime change in Moscow as they naively believe once VVP gone suddenly a new Eltsin will show up and the 'golden years' are back, let's steal all minerals, energy etc..and once VVP gone (in their mind) China will let Taiwan go (with his chips industry).
So much clutter to sort through. My addition is that any 'offensive' will be actively supported, and probably fought, by NATO forces (certainly US ones) embedded. There will be 'F-16s' as US does not fight without air superiority. Russia will pull back, as they do, and keep fighting, until 2030 at least. I've changed my mind that Russia would accept ceasefire, they have changed policy and won't allow a pause in fighting that would permit the west to take a breather or manipulate NATO membership for UKR. No shock and awe from RU, just grind.
" My addition is that any 'offensive' will be actively supported, and probably fought, by NATO forces (certainly US ones) embedded. There will be 'F-16s' as US does not fight without air superiority"
Introducing F16s does not equate to air superiority at all.
Yes, agree, thus the inverted commas - any and all NATO aircraft will be available if they decide to back the offensive to the hilt. Only the thinnest veneer of plausible deniability seems OK at this point. The unknown is will they back it up, or let UKR go solo, sort of.?
I'm hoping US goes all in and are thoroughly destroyed. And not just in Banderastan.
Well it certainly would cut to the chase scene...doubtful though, simply because being exposed as a paper tiger is the one things that they cannot afford to do. Then the jig is up and all the "little people" will simply say GTFO of my country or else.
Great sitrep as always. Quick question: What difference does it really make if the Ukrainians have a lot of troops and a few tanks if they don't have air cover or sufficient artillery support? I mean seriously, that's the recipe for a meatgrinder on turbo since Russia clearly has plenty of ammo and have dug in and fortified in many places. So what's the plan, just send waves of kamikaze grunts running across the plain and trying to overrun Russian positions with sheer numbers? I can't imagine the amount of casualties that will be involved. That leaves me with two observations: 1) If the US and NATO don't plan to actually get involved with air support and artillery (that they don't have in sufficient quantities anyway) then this amounts to nothing more than a large de-population project on the part of the Western puppet masters. 2) If there is actually an offensive coming and the West wants Ukraine to have any success at all, they will be "forced" to enter themselves per my #1 and it could go nukular to use George W. Bush's term.
Don't forget that Kherson was the first 'meat grinder' in june(end of), july and august last year.Ukies lost many manpower, probably less than now in Bakhmut but thousands. In the Karkhov 'victory' they also lost many once they entered the place enough deep.
Well, the idea is that a suicidal force that doesn't care about casualties can overrun a cautious/safety first force even if they don't have air cover. Ukraine could do a kamikaze style head-first rush and hope to get Russian forces to pull back due to them being more casualty averse. Not saying that's what will happen, but that's UA's thinking and only chance.
Let's assume they do that kamikazi charge of the NAZI Brigade, and RF pull back, then what? The Russians will pour steel rain down on them from their new positions just as they did in their last tactical retreat.
I'm hoping this scenario does happen.
Prigozhin's antics remind me of Patton's during WW2 as he lobbied constantly for 3rd Army to be the spear tip to the point where he became a massive headache. The upshot is I ignore his antics as they distract rather than inform.
On the nuclear rhetoric, Lavrov and Zakharova weekly reinforce Russia and China's message (China also issues a similar weekly message to the world) that nuclear war is unwinnable and won't be utilized by them unless provoked by nuke usage by NATO. Of course, the Russian and Chinese messages are mostly censored in the West but are well known by 85% of humanity.
The continual invocation of provably false history about Ukraine turns off ever more people in the West. The fact that the Outlaw US Empire invaded Ukraine via the 2014 coup is easy to access, and the confessions about Minsk 2 sabotage by the West to arm Ukraine for more war is also easy to discover, which is what an increasing number of people are doing, either on their own or via websites publishing the truth of the matter, which are also escalating in number. The next Narrative will easily convince those who wrote it, but that isn't its purpose. The fragility of the West's financial system is becoming clearer daily as more people learn. And then there's the escalation of political ferment throughout NATO.
The narrative that Russia's weakening is what's weakening, not Russia. Merely following Putin's events is enough, but the world was also treated to Lavrov's appearance at the UNSC last week which again forcefully destroyed the West's narrative and pointed out its massive illegalities and immoralities that got full play in RoW. Nor can the West ignore the escalation of the rate of dedollarization as even Yellen was forced to admit in speeches and articles that BigLie Media didn't censor. And lastly there's the rise of a second oppositional front that's not Trump and consists of RFKjr and Tucker Carlson, two seemingly different but actually rather similar people who share the same general outlook when it comes to the state of the nation.
It would be nice to know what the actual outcome of all those missile attacks was. That they were aimed at troop and equipment concentrations is obvious. When the Bakhmut siege ends this week another venue will then become the focus, but which one? IMO, the use of Russia's strategic bombers was to try and get the Ukies to use their new patriots so they could then be eliminated. Apparently, the bait wasn't taken.
You're right the aftermath of the strikes is very uncommonly quiet. Ukraine did issue particularly stringent new regulations in regards to posting footage/info of any missile 'arrivals' but the outage from both sides is a little strange nonetheless. The only thing we have strong confirmation of is the stuff hit in Pavlograd because it's obvious to any expert on the video footage that that was ammo explosions going up. And Pavlograd is certainly a key juncture which receives shipments from the West and distributes them throughout the 'JTO' zone
To karlof1
You should visit Germany.
The level of „Gehirnwäsche“ is off the scale!
Nothing of what we are discussing would make sense to the ordinary German.
Especially the West-Germans. They believe everything from the MSM.
I think it is more than a German/European phenomena. It is a Western phenomena.
The MSM from New York to London, from Berlin to Sydney, are all singing from the same hymn sheet. The rest of world has always had a more nuanced view of the conflict. Now it's starting to have a pro-Russian view.
What I find most dispiriting is the Western MSM's arrogance and almost complete denial of Western decline compared to South-East Asia's growing economic power. Thailand has come on leaps and bounds over the last 20 years. India is booming. Even Bangladesh is now doing well. The MSM has a perverse view of the world based on a picture 60 years out of date.
An Indian engineer summed it for me recently when he told me:
"Last year I took year my family to California for a holiday. Seeing the poverty and homelessness on the streets of Los Angeles and San Francisco made me think:
"America is like a third world country"
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I wonder if the average Ukrainian realises that their great hope for victory, the supposed economic super power, the United States, is now perceived as a poverty stricken, third-world country, by Indians ?