There are a lot of updates, so strap in folks. Firstly, let’s cover the most pressing news. The anxiety surrounding the upcoming Ukrainian offensive is reaching a peak. Many predictions stated it would come early to mid-May. Prigozhin himself just stated that May 2nd is when the rains will stop and the ground will begin fully drying up, which will take a couple weeks at most. Recall that Vladlen’s old prophecy was between easter and May 15 at the latest.
Podcast rundown on the various Russian PMCs
A recent report - unverified - has it that Prigozhin is not reall in charge of the Wagner group. Is there anything to that?
More fog of war propaganda and disinformation being fed by both sides ( mostly MSM) to eager consumers of it. I tend to follow and trust those sites that back up the narrative with facts and consistent, compelling reasoning, especially if the site has a military background. Prigozhin surely has some legitimate gripes with the Russian bureaucracy, but Russian DOD and Putin have also acted pretty quickly to fire and replace a number of ineffective Generals in the conflict. War time requires men who can act decisively with courage to meet immediate needs, and not worry about pencil pusher quotas. Putin is disposing of the deadbeats quickly. The Russians are bombing the crap out of the Ukraine military now and it is escalating, as predicted. Russians have also succeeded in moving West spy drones back to Romanian air space. 200 tons of destroyed AFU ammunition in just one missile strike is 400,000 pounds. That is a meaningful, impactful number. Russia is about to flatten the front and gear up for its own offensive later in spring or summer. There are of course unknown unknowns and asymmetrical surprises and losses will occur, but the weight of evidence points to a decisive Russian victory within 6 months. Ukraine is essentially conducting a terrorism campaign, not a real winnable war. Russia and its supporters need to keep calm and carry on, and persist in destroying the enemy systematically.
Rains in the front-line territories of Ukraine in some places will go on for almost the entire May, judging by the forecasts of the Gismeteo service.
Previously, it was expected that dry weather would be already in early May, and Prigozhin, the curator of the Wagner PMC, predicted the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by May 15, since the earth should have dried out by this time.
According to the latest forecast, rainy and dry weather will alternate throughout May in the Kherson region.
Changeable weather is expected in Bakhmut: now the sun, then a little rain. Particularly heavy precipitation is tentatively expected on the 8th, 19th and 26th. The air temperature will be around +16+20 during the day.
In frontline Zaporozhye, May promises to be quite rainy throughout the month: rainfall of varying intensity is expected every week for 2-3 days. The driest week will be the first week of the month: rain is expected there only on Sunday, May 7th.
In Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, precipitation in varying degrees of intensity is expected for most of the month.
At the same time, given the warm weather (16-20 degrees) and the incomprehensible intensity of these precipitations, it is likely that the earth will dry faster.
Picking out one element of this broad ranging article; what I think has been a consistent pattern of this conflict and which you cover, is that the West is not just fighting a shooting war - and indeed an economic war - but also a twitter war, a battle for information and hence hearts and minds.
I'm now thinking the recent "classified leaks" are part of that. My view is NATO is gearing up to physically partion Ukraine, with Odessa and Galicia etc being subject to some sort of "peace keeping" intervention force. Your speculation of a false flag incident supports that, horrifying as that may be. Nevertheless the pieces look to be coming into place.
This radical and dangerous escalation will need to be sold to western publics. Most people I know do not think about this at all or accept the Government/MSM line. It should be pretty easy to get the majority of voters to believe whatever their Governments want them to, and to accept via fear tactics any amount of hardship. And maybe it was always so....
I'll have to come back a read through this again, too many facts to digest at once. One typo: He’s now being <strike>tired</strike> tied to the Prigozhin debacle (not bad at all, sight better typing than I'm capable of doing).
Prigozhin is a drama queen, preening for his run at public office. Soigu owning a PMC caught my eye, that's a conflict of interest so is it a hard fact or speculation?
I don't give anyone money. I was raised poor, and I am a cheap bastard. A point three separate wives pointed out at some length. I consequently have money. I consider your work so important I am putting some money in your tip jar. Invaluable analysis. Keep up the good work sir.
Why Is the US Wiring Ukraine With Radiation Sensors to Detect Nuclear Blasts?
So Russia would conduct a false-flag operation in order to risk accomplishing what Kiev would want to accomplish with its own false flag? Again, what would Moscow have to gain? It’s steadily winning the war and depleting western stockpiles.
But for the inhabitants of the alternate universe where Russia is on its last legs it all makes perfect sense. Speaking to that audience, the Times again invokes “nuclear experts” and “western experts” who are presumably the same aforementioned anonymous officials, and they put an ominous spin on Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive:
Nuclear experts say such defensive precautions could face their greatest test in coming weeks as the Ukrainian army launches its spring offensive. China has leaned on Russia to discontinue its nuclear saber rattling and Mr. Putin has not recently invoked a nuclear threat. But Western experts worry that Russia’s battlefield failures are making Mr. Putin, if anything, more dependent on his nuclear arsenal, and they worry that fresh setbacks could increase his willingness to pull the nuclear trigger.
One of the many alarming aspects of all this is that these “experts” certainly must know that the idea “that Russia’s battlefield failures are making Mr. Putin, if anything, more dependent on his nuclear arsenal” is complete fantasy, yet they’re peddling it anyways. Why? That’s an ominous thought...
One very important point to consider is the attitude of Medvedev, Lavrov and Russian high command also shared by Duma is that they are not waiting on Ukraine to take their sweet time for a counter offensive this was stated just recently by Medvedev and Lavrov.
I’m get the feeling Russian leadership have slow walked this war of attrition long enough.
And I agree with Scott Ritter in his recent interview Ukraine Army will be a done deal at the end of June. That’s not to say the West won’t do something to escalate but Ukraine’s ability to fight will be a done at the end of June.
The Western leadership again demonstrates how utterly dull and dense they are by thinking they can turn Russia off and on like a water spigot, there will be no ceasefire until Russia is satisfied.
Russia will not stop until the objectives Putin stated at the onset of SMO are achieved.
If the West is foolish enough to go the false flag route involving nukes of any kind I’m sure Russia will officially declare war.
And then targets in nato countries along with Europe, United States will be fair game.
Are the big mouth Washington warmongers elitist ready for an all out war with Russia and her Allies?
And it if the West does indeed try some insanity as such; I do hope that Russia will strike DC first, yes I do, and hopefully all the maniacs will be gathered together to welcome a couple of uninvited Kh-47M2 Kinzhals.
I’m sorry that I have to feel this way but the Western Empire is despicable as it represents and embodies every evil human trait imaginable.
When the US doesn't win, it simply destroys--Libya, Iraq, Syria, Viet Nam, North Korea, Afghanistan-- and leaves its adversary a smoking ruin. Plan A, the dismemberment of Russia and decoupling from China was always a long shot. The deep state planners probably understood that. Plan B is likely a costly radioactive hole on Russia's doorstep coupled with terror, sabotage and assassination. One look at history and I never underestimate the inventive ruthlessness of the Anglo-American Empire. Hey buddy, wanna buy some opium?
Everyone already knows this entire war instigated by the Western countries using Ukraine has become an existential fight for the sovereignty of Russian people.
However we mustn’t forget the entire multipolar Eurasian effort depends on Russia completely eliminating Western intervention and interruption.
So we Chins very interested in Russia’s absolute victory.
Not particularly relevant to the main point, but that is a bloody magnificent moustache the Marshall has. We should bring back facial hair as a marker of manly status.
Just the acknowledgement of the "nuclear detectors/sensors" is troubling. I would think that probably wouldn't even be necessary unless you are trying to find after effects of things like spent DU rounds. Full disclose I don't know shit but I do understand the US is a Propaganda Paper Tiger. Our betters don't have to be good they will have their media write a story about it instead.
I just assumed if any nukes were to go off most of the world would know that pretty quick without the need for sensors placed on battlefield vehicles. Again, my limited knowledge. It is worrisome though because it has the feel of a setup in motion.
My question is what does Putin/Russia do once they have been accused and condemned by half of the world for using WMD's. Does it really allow the US anymore wiggle room aside from more sanctions from the West? The US has become the "boy who cried wolf" too many times and much of the world doesn't believe them and never will again for what I can see. Again, just trying to understand how that would be favorable to the US and degrading for the Russians?
So much clutter to sort through. My addition is that any 'offensive' will be actively supported, and probably fought, by NATO forces (certainly US ones) embedded. There will be 'F-16s' as US does not fight without air superiority. Russia will pull back, as they do, and keep fighting, until 2030 at least. I've changed my mind that Russia would accept ceasefire, they have changed policy and won't allow a pause in fighting that would permit the west to take a breather or manipulate NATO membership for UKR. No shock and awe from RU, just grind.
Great sitrep as always. Quick question: What difference does it really make if the Ukrainians have a lot of troops and a few tanks if they don't have air cover or sufficient artillery support? I mean seriously, that's the recipe for a meatgrinder on turbo since Russia clearly has plenty of ammo and have dug in and fortified in many places. So what's the plan, just send waves of kamikaze grunts running across the plain and trying to overrun Russian positions with sheer numbers? I can't imagine the amount of casualties that will be involved. That leaves me with two observations: 1) If the US and NATO don't plan to actually get involved with air support and artillery (that they don't have in sufficient quantities anyway) then this amounts to nothing more than a large de-population project on the part of the Western puppet masters. 2) If there is actually an offensive coming and the West wants Ukraine to have any success at all, they will be "forced" to enter themselves per my #1 and it could go nukular to use George W. Bush's term.
Prigozhin's antics remind me of Patton's during WW2 as he lobbied constantly for 3rd Army to be the spear tip to the point where he became a massive headache. The upshot is I ignore his antics as they distract rather than inform.
On the nuclear rhetoric, Lavrov and Zakharova weekly reinforce Russia and China's message (China also issues a similar weekly message to the world) that nuclear war is unwinnable and won't be utilized by them unless provoked by nuke usage by NATO. Of course, the Russian and Chinese messages are mostly censored in the West but are well known by 85% of humanity.
The continual invocation of provably false history about Ukraine turns off ever more people in the West. The fact that the Outlaw US Empire invaded Ukraine via the 2014 coup is easy to access, and the confessions about Minsk 2 sabotage by the West to arm Ukraine for more war is also easy to discover, which is what an increasing number of people are doing, either on their own or via websites publishing the truth of the matter, which are also escalating in number. The next Narrative will easily convince those who wrote it, but that isn't its purpose. The fragility of the West's financial system is becoming clearer daily as more people learn. And then there's the escalation of political ferment throughout NATO.
The narrative that Russia's weakening is what's weakening, not Russia. Merely following Putin's events is enough, but the world was also treated to Lavrov's appearance at the UNSC last week which again forcefully destroyed the West's narrative and pointed out its massive illegalities and immoralities that got full play in RoW. Nor can the West ignore the escalation of the rate of dedollarization as even Yellen was forced to admit in speeches and articles that BigLie Media didn't censor. And lastly there's the rise of a second oppositional front that's not Trump and consists of RFKjr and Tucker Carlson, two seemingly different but actually rather similar people who share the same general outlook when it comes to the state of the nation.
It would be nice to know what the actual outcome of all those missile attacks was. That they were aimed at troop and equipment concentrations is obvious. When the Bakhmut siege ends this week another venue will then become the focus, but which one? IMO, the use of Russia's strategic bombers was to try and get the Ukies to use their new patriots so they could then be eliminated. Apparently, the bait wasn't taken.