Thx, and what's strange is virtually all of it is either lies or odd fabrications. I.e. people confusing me with someone else, claiming I was taking someone's identity whom I've never even heard of, another claiming I changed my stance on the Moskva sinking, which is totally false, I completely stand by my original thesis and have never deviated, etc. It made me wonder that there might be an impersonator out there who is making strange claims in my name. That would not surprise me as not only has there been an impersonator here in the comments section who was autobanned by the bot detection system, but on Telegram there's also an impersonator trying to scam people pretending to be me, whom I've warned people about before.
I am pleased you didn't back down from Martyanov's criticism. Andrei has a great deal of technical knowledge about Russian and American military hardware but he presents it to his public in a course, written and spoken style that leaves his readers doubting their ability to proffer a question for fear of experiencing group condescension or worse, the ubiquitous "bye-bye."Andre Ravesky (formally The Saker, now defunct) has the same ego.
I can only conclude it must be an inherent trait in some Russian writers to exhibit their reporting void of reasonable comity whether on paper and ink or keyboard and video terminal.
I enjoy your work because it's generally a methodical presentation with a balanced foundation of reasonable prose buttressed with graphical images that help readers understand your observation of regional events. You don't interleave editorial thoughts with objective facts but instead we read a pause afterwards followed by a brief personal opinion that in some instances, one could sense an air of self-deprecation. Humbleness works for me, like a sage whose wisdom is appreciated without prejudice.
‘Ukraine could deploy F-16s as soon as July, but only a few’
Of a total 45 promised some 6 may arrive in July, from Denmark, 13 this year, the remainder in 2025
But – Ukraine’s runways need to be repaired ‘this could further delay their entry into war’
“I don’t think F-16s, to themselves, will be a game changer, due to the technical characteristics and number of F-16 teams that are coming,” said Yevgeniya Gaber, a former Ukrainian diplomat and foreign policy adviser.
“But I think together with other ammo, and long-range missiles, they will be,” said Ms. Gaber, now a professor at the George C. Marshall Center, a national security academy backed by the German and American governments.
— A discussion of some of the most relevant considerations —
It is effectively impossible to base F-16s in Ukraine. The available runways are woefully deficient, and any aircraft remaining at one base for more than a single sortie are going to become a target of Russian strikes, along with the base infrastructure.
The Ukrainian air force has only managed to retain a handful of airframes to this point in time by assiduously hiding them, and constantly moving them around, using improvised airfields much of the time (highways, grass fields, etc.) The sortie rate of the remaining UAF aircraft is so small as to be nearly invisible. Indeed, with few exceptions, if they fly, they die.
But at least Soviet-era jets were designed and constructed to fly out of "guerrilla airfields". F-16s are not. F-16s require pristine runways and intensive maintenance after each sortie — almost 20 hours of maintenance for each hour of flight time!!!
This means highly trained / exceedingly experienced NATO ground crews and fully equipped maintenance hangars would need to be available anywhere the F-16 seeks to fly — along with an abundant supply of spare parts, spare engines, etc.
That simply is not going to happen in Ukraine.
‼️ This means the only plausible basing option will be at NATO facilities in Poland and/or Romania. And anyone attempting to argue against this reality is engaging in pure fantasy.
And, of course, flying F-16s against Russia from bases in Poland and/or Romania is tantamount to a formal declaration of WAR.
But let's assume NATO chooses that option ...
First, we need to consider what the mission of these F-16s will be. Is it to launch with long-range cruise missiles, rise to high altitude, and fire them from distant stand-off range? Because, as I understand it, the F-16 cannot carry, for example, a British Storm Shadow missile. The F-16 is not well-suited for the long-range stand-off role.
Furthermore, an F-16 at altitude over Ukraine is going to be seen by Russian AD assets from hundreds of miles away, and Russian air to air missiles and S-400 SAMs will outrange the F-16s capability to defend itself in almost any scenario.
Additionally, the Russians have clearly demonstrated the capability to routinely shoot down any stand-off munition NATO has launched against them.
I don't see how an F-16 mission to launch long-range stand-off strikes against Russian targets is going to produce any meaningful tactical successes, let along appreciable strategic effects. And I am certain it would only take the Russians a day or two to formulate highly effective ambushes against this tactic. Each subsequent F-16 sortie would then become a one-way kamikaze attack.
As for close-air support (CAS) of ground troops or combat air patrol (CAP) against Russian attack aircraft, there is simply no way the F-16 can accomplish either of those missions without readily available in-air refueling! And that is simply not going to happen over Ukraine. NATO's big, fat, slow tankers will be shot out of the sky at will by the Russians! There is no way of getting around that reality.
Moreover, from the moment the first F-16 commences an attack sortie from a NATO airfield, all NATO ISR assets in the theater will become targets. They will either cease to fly, or cease to exist. And, without them, the F-16 is no longer a useful tool.
Neither F-16s, nor any variety of NATO strike aircraft, are made to function in isolation from the huge logistical infrastructure that supports them. Therefore, the very sentence "Send F-16s to Ukraine" is a logically nonsensical statement.
Simply put, I cannot conceive of ANY way F-16s can be used against Russian forces in Ukraine, even if the latest generation of F-16 Vipers were being flown by experienced NATO pilots.
And, quite frankly, the same limitations would apply to ANY variety of NATO strike aircraft attempting to fly against the Russian military in its own backyard.
If the policy makers of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult succeed in initiating an air war against Russia in eastern Europe, it will result in catastrophic losses for US/NATO air power and the comprehensive destruction of the myth of US military supremacy.
« “Even if the French/NATO plan a deployment in the Ukraine, what will they be deploying to?” the military engineer adds. “If the current Russian plan of attack is causing swings of 300+ volts, it’s not even safe to plug in a cell phone. We can safely assume that all manner of appliances and other expensive electrical or electronic equipment has been destroyed in the affected areas. Indeed, even if the power engineers manage to get the power back on, millions of light fixtures, especially the electronic/LED variety, are burned out. Diagnostic equipment (medical and technical), process instruments, programmable logic controllers, power supplies, inverters, frequency drives, bank machines, computerized checkout, refrigeration equipment, are burned up” »
« The next day, March 30, petroleum and fuel oil storages, which have been dispersed to shield them from attack and are necessary to power the emergency generators, were destroyed in the Poltava region. On Sunday, March 31, the targeting of gas storage and gas production around Lvov was also reported by the Defense Ministry in Moscow. “The Russian Aerospace Forces carried out a group strike with high-precision weapons on the facilities of energy infrastructure and the gas-producing industry of Ukraine. As a result of the strike, the work of the defense industry enterprises for the manufacture and repair of weapons, military equipment and ammunition was disrupted. All targets of the strike have been achieved. The objects are affected.””
"This is strategic; war has never been fought like this in Europe. The US and NATO general staffs and politicians have been taken by complete surprise. “The Ukrainians are building Maginot and Siegfried lines according to the instructions of their foreign advisers,” according to a Moscow analyst, “as if the Russian offensive will be men, artillery and tanks running across the landscape towards Kiev. But they won’t have to. The offensive against Ukrainian electricity cannot be stopped at these lines.”
Without effective defence for its power generating plants, distribution hubs, and grid lines, the Kiev regime’s power is being stopped across the country; the major Novorussian cities in the east – Odessa, Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk – are being blacked out and their populations forced to evacuate; the warmaking resupplies of the NATO allies are being cut off at borders which are now exposed to reversal of electricity surges threatening the plants and grids of southern Poland, Romania and Moldova. Even European and American money for President Vladimir Zelensky’s regime needs electricity to move."
"A western military source believes, like Russian sources, that the Russian General Staff will make no direct city attacks and will leapfrog over or bypass the new fortifications. Where they have been built to the east of Dniepropetrovsk and to the north of Kiev and Chernigov, the source suspects, “the Ukrainians have created a Siegfried Line which the Russians will use against them later. Some of the fortifications face the wrong way, but the dragons’ teeth, wire and ditches will work fine in reverse when the time comes to enforce the DMZ.” For more on how the demilitarized zone will be drawn, read this."
- also a curiosity as to how deeply ingrained the in the west are their assumptions and self projections, in terms of efficiency power and rightness
When compared to this first in a long time reality test to scale - how these fall apart and why - what are the reasons for RF prevailing- is the ability to form a plan for oneself and one's own country
I'm in global south and many of the middle class unquestioning adopt/repeat the western assumptions, while the poor care not
Well your interests sound to me like they'd interest quite a few folks. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt to get yourself a substack account or whatever they call it and publish your thoughts from time to time. I reckon I'd subscribe for instance... Just on the strength of that post you made.
Thank you for this comment - but as I say I live a long way away in a very small backwoods town, very far upriver
Apart from the obvious inconvenience there are non trivial hindrances to a professional committment to a situation occuring so far away - internet restrictions mean impossible to access Russian sources, for one
S has frequently told how it is full time job
Distance does grant, perhaps, a cooler perspective, but this has to serve local applications to become valid - the revelation of western incompetence has to be put to use
Still, it might be possible for you to put up a "Buy me a coffee" link so we can express our appreciation in tangible form. I'd read the helmer article but although I follow Schryver I'd missed that one: Thanks!
Yes, in theory, but where would the aircraft carrier be based? It's either the Med or the Baltic Seas, the latter being on Russia's doorstep, and therefore an absolutely prime time target the moment the first sortie departs for its suicide mission over Ukraine.
And it's similar in the Med. I think the aircraft would all require in-air refuelling which as GW has pointed out would swiftly cease to exist. Don't forget that the RF now has 24 hour air cover with MiG-31 over the Black Sea, all armed with Kinzhal missiles, and all capable of taking out an aircraft carrier.
And of course there are the Russian installations in the Med in Syria which could, in theory, also perform these duties. That latter would of course expand the war, but IMO the moment NATO thinks to fly any sortie from a non-Ukrainian airbase the gloves come off, and we are in de facto WW3.
"And of course there are the Russian installations in the Med in Syria which could, in theory, also perform these duties. That latter would of course expand the war, but IMO the moment NATO thinks to fly any sortie from a non-Ukrainian airbase the gloves come off, and we are in de facto WW3."
NATO is betting that Russia lacks the will to escalate.
F-16 will change nothing, Ukraine had an airforce, they got destroyed. But introducing F-16's might cause several problems, as you mentioned.
It will not be possible to house them in Ukraine. That leaves NATO bases? The major problem is that F-16's can carry nuclear warheads, so every attack has to be treated as a possible nuclear attack.
If Russia AD fires at a F-16 that's returning to a NATO base the interception might be in NATO airspace.
What if F-16's leave NATO base to enter Ukraine just to fire a few missiles, how would Russia react on that? Or if Ukraine fires from NATO airspace? Didn't Russia used Belarus to attack Ukraine? Yet they are not at war with eachother. Which makes sense as Ukraine has nothing to gain to attack Belarus, or even has to capability.
And maintance has to be done by NATO, or have atleast a supervisor. Are to still jumping to join the Ukrainian side? The heroes of the west must have noticed the body bags coming back home, do they really think the rear is safe?
I don't see how this will work out. I've been saying for a long time that I expect NATO to do something incredible stupid. By the look of Stoltenberg we're getting close.
Not going to work out. It's too little, much too late. As you've pointed out here the risks from escalation outweigh any advantage. But we're dealing with congenital idiots in high office, so continues the doom loop.
The F-16 is a vacuum cleaner with one engine. What airfields that the runways are cleaned so nothing is sucked up into the engine. They call this Foreign Object Debris (FOD).
In the USAF, this meant hundreds of maintainers walking arms-length intervals two to three times a day with eyes on the ground looking for any and every piece of debris that could be ingested by the multi-million dollar vacuum cleaner with ONE engine we were charged with maintaining. Imagine the preparation it would take to complete this process on a 10,000-foot-long straight highway, in the dark, while trying to be as inconspicuous as possible so as not to draw attention of collaborators or Russian spies.
Other problems: The MIG-29 averages about 11 hours of maintenance for every ONE hour of flight times. The F-16? A whopping increase to 18.5 maintenance hrs for everyone hr of flight time. These are per aircraft with experienced crews. These figures also assume decent airframe hours on the aircraft.
The only sensible purpose of F-16's is thereby their one or two time use as a launching vehicles for long range missiles like Bristish Storm Shadow cruise missiles that were given to Ukraine.
The F-16's are a nothing burger. I feel sorry for the pilots that are going to fly them.
Thanks for your comment – but it looks unlikely they will ever bring the F-16’s to bear, to coin a phrase
The NYT, usually very warmongerey, is full of plausible excuses – the Danes are notorious liars and very devoted to brown nose PR
The Danes have suffered, along with everyone, delays in the F35 deliveries intended to replace the F16’s ’given’ to Ukraine
Even the most foolish might hesitate to give away their planes while doing all possible to make an enemy of your close neighbour, against whom you are pretending to be re arming
All this about maintenance is fascinating. You fly one hour and then get actually worked on for 18 hours straight? Good god. What is happening that takes 18 hours? Sounds like the thing must be on the verge of collapse. What would happen if it flew for two hours?
Can you give some details? Sounds like they're doing a little more than changing the oil and checking the tyres.
The F-16 needs a large number of ground crew to maintain the aircraft. Since I never hear about NATO training Ukrainian troops to become F-16 mechanics I don't take this F-16 talk from NATO about F-16s seriously.
From the NYT article « About 50 Ukrainian technicians are being trained in Denmark to support and repair the jets and handle their weapons packages, given that the F-16 is so complex that it generally takes eight to 14 people to maintain each one. Officials said Western defense contractors would have to accompany the jets into Ukraine, and remain with them, until there were enough Ukrainian crews to maintain them properly — a process that could take years. »
It seems unlikely as per usual with the Danes and the EU and NATO PR -all hat no cattle
F-16s can't fly combat missions against Russian fighters, so it will be strictly standoff missiles...But I don't see any way Ukraine can create and maintain the antiseptic runways necessary, and the Russians have warned other countries that if missions originate from them, they will be hit...Strictly, not happening...
Russia could agree to a new Istambul, knowing that it will be quicky broken, because nothing has really changed in Kiev or Nato. Still, it could be possible, since Russia needs time too to consolidate its Asian integration. This will be a major victory for Biden who inmediately after being elected will restart the war, doubling down. So Russia can wait and see its enemy crumbling. Johnson is gone, Sunak will soon go. Same for Biden. And Macron faces a general upheaval in France before the end of his mandate. In addition, Israel is on the ropes. They have fooled the Russians a thousand times and think they can keep on doing it forever.
The funny-tragic thing here is that these scumbags think as follows: So Putin doesnt wnat peace (on our terms), so HE is responsible for every terrorist attack we organise on Russian civilians. They really do think in those terms.
They should be thankful Russians dont target about 3000 top level individuals in the west directly. Peace would be made in the world. But honestly, why should the Russians pursue peace now when war is getting them rid of the Ucranian nazis, the Russian fifth columnists and the west cultural and financial grip on the country?
You gotta wonder why the media doesn’t point out that Zelensky has been begging for more equipment and weapons for 2 years, but never asks why he desperately needs it or what happened to all the other stuff he was given. Reading between the lines he needs it because Russia has destroyed all the previous stuff. Same thing with why they desperately need more troops and why Zelensky just lowered the fighting age. I guess those '31,000' deaths left a big hole in troop strength.
How can the pro Ukraine folks not be able to read between the lines?
Its like the old covid mask bullshit. Masks work always and forever, and when they don't its because you didn't use them right. Same here - Zelensky has everything he needs to win, except when he doesn't because we let him down.
I'm really surprised that Ukraine has a minimum age of 27 and now 25 for new military recruits. They should do as the US does and lower the age to 18. That way they get to slaughter their young men before they have a chance to actually experience living. No need to allow them to know what living is all about and what they are about to give up!
So, will the US House of Reps toss in enough unacceptable border stuff to make any new Ukraine support dollars not happen? It seems like that has been the case.
Great article Simplicius! I've shared the link at our Substack
None of the border stuff will do a thing until both parties start arresting CEOs who are hiring illegal immigrants. They get caught and might pay a small fine and then do an again over and over.
That guy in your second video “they attack shopping centres in Moscow”
Only one as far as I know has been attacked. Did the Crocus perhaps suffer drone damage as well as Tajiks killing anybody that didn’t have the same colour of skin as they did?
Yeah. I think I probably had a few scotches when I wrote this. I forget what my issue with this particular article was. But is is true that most "news" outlets simply cut and paste others' work. I hate to see images of X messages simply plonked onto a page as if the plonker now owned the work. So I go somewhere else. For the record, I am subscribed to Simplicious76. He/She brings analysis, facts and truths and angles to issues that I was not aware of. What the fuck do I know about Ukraine or Gaza for that matter? I was living in the US completely ignorant about what has been taking place in both places. I need to sift out what is shit and what is not.
I get your point – there are interesting writers who post analysis only
However I think the combination of analysis together with links and sources does open up the issues addressed in a user friendly way – often the analysis is also directed to why the link/source presented the information in this or that way
This allows us amateurs to pick up on sources of information, and to judge from some varying statements of facts, as well as S’s opinions
This is really useful regarding the Ukraine war where there is a huge amount of fake news etc, and one knows that MSM are deranged, and mainly interested in promoting war
Tell me, were you beaten with a stick so that you came here and had to read Simplicius' articles ? Believe me, if you leave sulking (to other well-informed authors!) we will not shed tears in our sorrow !
I have been working on a book for 9 years. For any serious research, every paragraph has 2, 3 or more sources, acknowledged and cited in footnotes. These links that you decry are simply the internet version of footnotes, and I would not take seriously any piece of research that did not include footnotes. So... good job... Simplicius for documenting your sources, data, and facts.
Plus providing original sources for information allows the reader, encourages the reader, to read the sources better to judge the analysis made by the author, in this case S, and better to learn for himself how to look for sources and to judge them
This is especially true in the case of overwhelming censorship and enforcement of an 'inner party' line (a dominant capitalist class line) which is designed to hide the truth from their own people and to suborn and oppress them by means of this, and the other parallel wars in progress
I helped edit an academic journal (history of science) some time ago and was involved in publishing (scientific and technical stuff). We were old-school, actually checking footnotes and research, and I can tell you that fraud is rampant in every academic field today. Check notes on much that you read that has been published or put online in the past 30 years, because much of it is rubbish. You can mostly trust stuff published before 1985, but little after. I like that Simplicius shows his sources. It shows integrity: a rare quality today.
There is no reason that 'science' should be insulated from society at large, especially when so much used by the dominant classes to browbeat the poor into submission, or to the invention of lucrative products and surveillance
Now ....medicine..there's a science which....I'll let you fill in the rest
Odessa will be a Russian city, bet on it. Doesn't matter what the Ukes and the West have done to it, Russia will restore the city of Catherine the Great.
The Russians have to take it and they will. It brings any chances of the Ukies or their Western masters screwing around in the Black Sea to a complete end. It's also a Russian city.
This is precisely why the RF will clean up Odessa - the Ukies have turned their country into a major impex for the drug trade, and you are aware that this drug trade, while supported/encouraged by the US three letters services, is anathema to the RF
I can't wait to visit Odessa after it has been liberated. Nice town with a great history and a mosaic of cultures, nice people who know how to have a good time. I hope the liberation doesn't require the city's destruction. I believe saving the cities is one of many reasons the Russians are in no hurry.
As an attorney, I know when someone takes pride in their craft. I can tell you continue to refine your work, maintain an open mind, and value intellectual honesty. It's been a breath of fresh air for me. As soon as I gather the funds later this month or next, I will become a paying subscriber. Thanks Simplicius.
Perhaps he is saying that attorneys need to know stuff like that - part of their profession. I don't think he was by any means restricting that talent to only attorneys. But I could be wrong.
He probably means that most in his craft, lawyering, are not taking pride at all but are just in it for the rent money. And that they, his colleagues, would say (or make up) anything in court or in client negotiations if only it gets them ahead. Hence the "fresh breath of air" that he feels from reading an honest soul like Simp, an honesty that he is dreadfully missing from within his own profession.
I think it's just that lawyers deal with (and in) a lot of BS, ranging from exaggerations to outrageous lies, so some lawyers become connoisseurs so they can cope with the stench.
Snap. Simplicius literally is the only information/"news"/analysis source sufficiently valuable for me to be willing to pay real money. Especially valuable is his references/links. The way I look at this is: "he does the research so I don't have to." ;)
G'day Arthur, depends if he is working for the local community centre or equivalent and has six kids plus we don't know his country of origin but yes I definitely initially had exactly the same thought.
Yes, I forgot about that: the question of country. Not every country has the same monetary rewards per job do they.... I forgot about pro bono, too. Yep. I was a bit simplistic and unfair... I ought to be more careful in my thinking and my remarks. :)
Both my daughters are lawyers. They both are young. One is a public defender and the other works for the state of Washington. They only make ~100k which isn’t much these days.
Well in Australian dollars it's about twice what I know hard working 'ordinary' ( i.e. not professionals for instance ) Australians get. And the exchange rate means it would be $150k in $AU.
That seems to be good money is Aus right now. Triple your low ordinary.
Very difficult to be accurate of course, there being so many variables in type of work and location etc. Plus the habit of reporting to use 'averages' and 'medians' when what we really want is 'modes'.
So I think they're doing alright and could certainly afford a subscription to a Substacker.
Much has to do with expectations, doesn't it?
I know pensioners (age) who claim to be happy and comfortable on nothing but their pensions which are at about 20K I think.
And I know others who bring in about 60K and claim to be desperately short of money, deprived in an economic sense.
But the 60K cohort are buying homes with massive loans at rising interest rates and are desperately desiring to buy yet more as 'investment properties' and let them out for rent income.... So they're always wanting more ready cash to diminish the amounts they propose to borrow and to meet payments they must make... they're 'hustling for a buck', they will always see themselves as short of a dollar until the day they die.
The pensioners have their homes, bought or rented, that they've had for decades and seem to 'cut their suit according to their cloth' and are happy with it. That and a couple of modest subscriptions here and there...
So what, you train a model off of comments here and "analyse" them? I don't think I nor anyone else here consented to our comments being used for your AI trash, and I would be surprised if Simplicius did either. Why not go get a useful job and let the people do their own writing and work?
1. Simplification: Large geopolitical texts often contain complex concepts, theories, and a range of historical events. Visual breakdowns or mind-maps simplify these ideas, making them easier to understand.
2. Visual Learning: Many people are visual learners. They comprehend and retain information better when it's presented visually. Graphs, charts, and mind maps cater to these individuals, enhancing their learning experience.
3. Overview: Tabular breakdowns, recapitulations, and mind-maps provide a quick overview of the information at a glance, helping readers to grasp the key points without having to read through lengthy texts.
4. Memory Retention: Visual aids such as these are crucial in enhancing memory retention. They help in better recall during further research, discussions, or examinations.
5. Time-Saving: Reading and understanding a large geopolitical text can be time-consuming. Recapitulations and visual or tabular breakdowns save time by summarizing the main points.
6. Contextual Learning: Using mind-maps or visual breakdowns allows readers to see the information in context. They can easily understand relationships and patterns, which is particularly useful for geopolitical studies.
7. Focus on Important Information: Recapitulations and visual aids can help to highlight and emphasize the most important points or themes of a text.
8. Accessibility: Visual aids make the information more accessible to people who may struggle with reading large amounts of text, such as those with dyslexia or visual impairments.
9. Study and Revision: They serve as excellent tools for studying and revision purposes. The summary and visual representation of information facilitates quick revision and helps in reinforcing the understanding of the topic.
10. Encourages Critical Thinking: Creating or interpreting mind-maps or tabular breakdowns encourages critical thinking as one has to assess the information, identify the key points and understand their relationships.
11. Popularization: These kind of recapitulations can make the blog of Simplicius The Thinker even more popular.
Why even reply if you're just going to spit out that GPT garbage instead of giving another human being the respect to write a reply yourself? What an insult.
I reckon that if the Crown, or the PoW, or whomever exactly Highgrove belongs to, even thought of selling this house, the Brit press, and some part of the brit public would be up in arms, and screaming for blood
The King, and the PoW would not could not even mention this possibility - the Brit ruling class may not be the cleverest but this is not the time to sell one of their jewels
They won't be needing it as a residence, the royal family is now a shrinking demographic. Besides, with paying for all the cancer related medical expenses they will need some income.
why? they sold tower bridge with hardly a murmur. they let Assange hang on the cross. they support the nazis that were trying to kill me when I was born. there is no british nation any more. a herd of numb, dumb morons is all.
Nothing to argue with there - except that Tower Bridge is where it always was. It was the previous version of London Bridge that was sold off when it needed replacing, and someone was willing to pay to take it away and save us the cost of disposal. (Same principle as some of the weapons sent to the Ukraine?)
the official story is that it's not confirmed. However, all the staff have been dismissed, which is indicative that there's a new owner.
That being said, Elena Zelenskaya is pretty good friends with "Queen" Camilla, for whatever sordid reason, so it's certainly plausible that Charles would be amenable to such a sale.
If that was the case, the official British Yellow Press would be all over it. So far, nothing. It would be a relatively simple thing to fact check at the land registry + business registry.
That said, it is not unlikely that Ukraine will soon have a "government in exile" in the UK, just as Poland did in WW2.
Where did mini-zee get the shekels? His wife handed over 20 million pounds for Charlie's country estate when she last slithered her way into Britain for a shoe sale extravaganza.
I had no idea that a psychotic murder-worshiping thug who taught himself how to play the piano badly with his little dick had legally earned so much money pretending to be an honest politician! So now he has homes in Israel, Spain, Italy and Florida...and BRITAIN!
Can you guess who he stole the money from?....or why he feels the need to own millions and millions of dollars in upscale international real estate?!?!?
I'm expecting him to not get the opportunity to enjoy the ill-gotten gains he's stolen on the stacks of dead Christian men he's deliberately exterminating in Ukraine. I figure he lives less than a year once he's stripped of his political protections. Let's hope his creepy bigoted wife gets some of the same kind of attention paid to her too. Judging her by her public pronouncements, she's even more evil than he is.
Wonderful family.
If anyone deserves the "Trotsky Fate", it is this thieving, murderous, lying snake in the grass pretending to be human, along with every single one of the monsters who surround him in their feverish and desperate late attempts to steal everything that's not yet stolen by the tribe and its co-conspirators.
Why would anyone want to view your AI Simplexia the Stinker art when art from real human beings is available? Learn a useful skill like art yourself, imagine what you could accomplish if you put your mind to it, instead you just ride off other people's achievements with the garbage that is next-token prediction. It's offensive seeing this AI rubbish in the comments here while you give responses to other humans that are outright written by a bot and not you. Internet is being filled with trash faster than ever because of people like you!
It's remarkable that simple, unbiased prompts produced provocative, grotesque, or captivating images that appear to be against war. This indirectly shows that most people are opposed to war, and we believe it effectively conveys that message.
I once heard "If events in your life are constantly surprising you because they don't happen as you predicted, then you are either biased or using bad data." I keep this idea in my head when evaluating my news sources. I prefer clear visibility into a subject over confirmation bias. My guess is your record and push for accuracy is the reason you've accumulated this audience.
It definitely feels like NATO knows something they aren't saying. I'm starting to wonder if Russia even will need a major push to get the line to collapse.
I think the CIA only tell politicians what they want to hear these days, so only zealots like Biden and Nuland actually believed they could balkanise Russia, while NATO knew the whole time that the only winners would be the arms industry (that NATO exists to serve).
I agree; when the mud dries Russia will be just doing the same as now, but the whole of the Ukrainian army (19-25 year olds or not) will have been turned to mince.
Ukraine giving up Russian held areas and the Donbass and a New Ukraine being formed (with a NATO/EU promise) would not stop Russia. They still couldn't have New Ukraine on their border; there'd just be more of the same. Is Zelensky this naive? But like they say 'cocaine's a hellava drug'.
I'd don't read MSM at all so it's kinda weirdo to know that people are coming round, within boundaries, to what was obvious from February 2022, that a war was unwinnable and from April 2022 that they knew this but continued to grind Ukrainians anyway.
Fall of '22, a couple of the mature, responsible (high income) members of my family tried to have some kind of a sit down to probe my crazy conspiracy theory based belief system, what with my saying batshit crazy stuff re: increased chances for a nuclear war, USA apparently ratcheting up restrictions on internet speech, MSM censorship, possible return to McCarthy era cold war mistreatment of those expressing dissenting opinions. They assured me that the Russians had too much to lose to start a nuclear exchange because they are getting kicked out of Ukraine. Totally blank looks when I said, "you have this backwards- THEY ARE NOT LOSING, our rulers are the ones who may push the button in desperation". At least they don't try to talk to me about geopolitics any more.
Hey, sounds like you and I have the same type of family. Wealthy and educated, but totally allegiant to main stream media, making them totally ignorant about what is really happening in the world. I'm the only one without the clot shot, too.
Me too. At my sister's wedding autumn '22, I said "Russia will win". They looked at me like something the cat had brought in. But when their kids are threatened with conscription…
The elephant in the room is NATO's inability to intervene directly, militarily. The US has already said, point blank, that there will not be any (official) US combat troops on the ground. Period. On this, Biden and Trump are as one.
Is there anyone in the western democracies (I use the word loosely) who thinks that any- even one NATO member- is going to put their own voters and voters' loved into this hell hole, that started out as a hollywood war movie where no one you care about really gets hurt and it was all flag waving, bunting and human interest stories, and has now become a film people switch off. Macron and his warmongering press buddies can put on flack jackets and go off to put their feet where their mouths have been.
It was the same movie-gazing viz Gaza- until the other day- and look at the outrage in the west. 7 'real people' got killed!!!!
The only people going anywhere soon are western leaders facing their own citizens in a vote.
Yes the 3 British aid workers killed by Israel was all over the MSM press yesterday. It's getting much harder to keep this narrative going- that we are behind Ukraine or Israel in any meaningful way- the public are assuredly not- so European politicians must find some way out of this mess.
I monitor the BBC (force myself to watch it) to see what sort of narrative they're spinning. They're still all in on Ukraine, but I'm seeing a definite shift in the reporting when it comes to Gaza. Don't know if it's just ass covering or a sign of change in the official narrative, but I notice there's far more Muslims in Britain than there are Jews, and that many of them come from similar situations to what's going on in Gaza - some even have relatives there. Something to worry about if you're a British politician I'd think.
Recently they trotted out some old hag trying to make Israel's case and failing badly, wagging her finger the whole time like that did anything but add even more banality to her rabid tirade. I though to myself, what the hell are they thinking putting her on? Not helping their case at all, unless that case has changed, because she came off like she was Hitler's grand-daughter, it was that bad.
But if their aim was to make Israel look bad, they did a bang-up job.
Interesting. I think it's easier to hide the Ukraine reality as the war of attrition has been so slow and kinda boring in terms of taking of land etc. Harder to hide 6 months of rapid destruction and terrorism of Gaza and its people and still say that Israel are going to 'win' and that we're on their side.
I had a conversation recently with a left-leaning neighbour of mine who accused Putin of committing genocide in Ukraine. I pointed him towards Gaza and simply said "This is what real genocide looks like. Show me similar photos coming out of Ukraine."
As a leftie I knew he was pro-Palestine so it was an easy point to score. It did make him rethink his stance on Ukraine though. I follow a number of pro-Israel commentators and in the last 6 months they have had to perform all sorts of mental gymnastics in order to not criticise what's going on and justify the non-genocide that's occurring. It's going to be very difficult for Israel to come back from what they've done and make friends in the region or in the global south.
I've been reading Jacques Baud's book The Russian Art of War. Toward the end he does a quick comparative analysis on child civilian deaths. For the statistics available to him at the time, the Ukrainians and Russians between them have been managing to kill off only 0.94 children per day on average. Whereas the Israelis have a far superior sustainable performance at 141.7 children per day. [But perhaps 140.76 of them were Hamas fighters? ;)]
In fairness, most civilians killed in Ukraine/Russia are adults, which is not the case in Gaza, so the Israeli superiority in respect of killing adults will not be so extreme. If only because the buggers are better (than children) at trying to run away. :(
Also one important note is that Russia does not specifically target civilians and uses only precision weapons to strike targets in the rear. On the contrary Ukraine often uses not so precise weapons systems (like MRLS and tube artillery) to strike civilian targets (like Belgorod attacks). They obviously know that it is not possible to precisely strike individual military targets (I also highly doubt there are any there) within urban landscape with these weapons, but yet they still indiscriminately use them.
The demographics of the Gaza and Ukrainian civilian pools of potential victims and the desired outcomes of the Israeli and Russian leaders are total opposites. Gaza population started this with an average age of 19.6 YO. Israel is conducting "tribal warfare", where it is required to destroy the ability of the opposing tribe to ever come back at them (in an age where they can't just kill all the adult males & old people, enslave the children for profit and take the desirable women as slaves/concubines to boost their own population numbers as they used to).
Ukraine had an aging population already, average age was 40.5 YO in 2020 and predicted to go up by 10 years by 2150 (although the average age of Ukrainians "in country" has instead been going down fast, especially for males)- That demographic change has not been due to an increased birthrate. And the Russians would LIKE to keep as many of them around as are willing or wanting to officially resume being Russian (or just willing to get along as neighbors).
Hiya Phillip, I think it will be impossible for increasingly insane Israel to come back from this. As a nation who weaponised the Holocaust and who self identify as a persecuted people I think this will be a self fulfilling prophecy- they will be destroyed by the axis of resistance economically and physically.
Yes, pro-Israel supporters are doing gold medal winning mental gymnastics- they are bound up like pretzels, the muscles are quivering, the sweat is pouring and something's got to give!
It's easy to confuse "impartiality" with "lack of bias". The BBC has a long history of impartiality, but throughout its entire corporation history, and even beforehand when it was still a private limited company, it's consistently parroted the government line wherever possible. No problem with "impartiality": that merely means you have to give some token airtime to alternative perspectives.
All Big Media, whether "mainstream" or (anti)social, is by definition shareholder-funded or government-funded. Both variants necessarily promote bias. ;)
Agreed but they and their life stories weren't plastered over all the front pages in the UK. We are not directly funding like the US is and have no influence over US policy so nothing will change apart from the distancing of our politicians from Sunak's original 100% one sided support for Israel.
The public's thought and wants sure matters to politicians when they want votes. We already have an anti war, anti Zionist MP in parliament, the Tory's are so unpopular already they'll probably lose but Labour won't want to lose any more seats to Galloway's Workers party at the General election coming this year or early next.
Gaza has been on social media for 6 months solid, and for young people in particular it ain't going away any time soon.
The disconnect between the narrative and reality is bleeding through more and more over the psychotic Israelis.
You have one anti war, anti Zionist MP. That's not going to result in any kind of meaningful change.
Even if Galloway (whom I respect and admire) were to become PM tomorrow, he would find himself stymied at every turn by his own government bureaucracy. See "Yes, Minister" for examples.
Hmm... I try to scan as many headlines as I can every day. I sense that the narrative has moved in the West from "we must support Ukraine in its fight with Russia" to "we are at war with Russia, or soon will be". I do hope you are correct.
I put to you and to them: 'whose this 'we' jazz, paleface?"
People who say those things, Marc, inhabit the world of boots in booths in Nevada remotely controlling drones as in some digital war game. None of these people are contemplating their own kith and kin going off to the Russian front. The public think the war would be like Iraq et al, happening to other people. The mood would change remarkably swiftly if any politician even suggested conscription right now, let alone conscription into active service.
Under government sponsorship the broadsheet MSM floated the idea of conscription last year and it was so incinerated, Sunak had to make a statement that there was NO intention of introducing conscription and indeed NO intention of putting UK troops into Ukraine to fight the Russians, conscription or not. Biden has said exactly the same for US troops.
Right at the start of this SMO the chatterati in charge in the West decided that 'Putin only understands strength' and ever since we have had to put up with the warmongering posturing and blather. But that is all it is, a storm of words, which will pass, is already running out of steam.
Please look at Woodrow Wilson (the winning presidential candidate) re: His campaigns official posture of "Not Sending American boys to Die in a Foreign War" during the 1916 presidential elections? "He kept us out of war". Then some bankers with a lot of cash on loan to the British Empire got cold feet when the allies had a bad year in 1916? And voila, Zimmerman telegram, Lusitania eats several torpedoes, a group of bankers & war related industrialists buys at least one major newspaper in every large US city and changes the editorial policy to be pro British/pro war & William Randolph Hearst declares war on Germany.
Either Biden's owners will decide to get him the backing always given a wartime president (at the start, anyhow), or gin up a dramatic casus belli + another internet astroturfed groundswell of public opinion no matter WHO wins, this contest is not one they can afford to lose, much more so than their great grandparents could not take the loss on their loans a century back. Our rulers can't let go of this tiger's ears.
An important detail in slight rebuttal. The Lusitania was sunk on May 7, 1915. 18 months before the election which reelected this lying SOB. The US declaration of war came on April 6, 1917.
If you want to go down this rabbit hole, you could start with his handler, Colonel House, who worked for the Brits.
Thanks, I do need to proof read & check details more carefully-
"Colonel" House was an interesting piece of work. His family fortune originally came from father blockade running for the CSA, British military equipment, cotton, tobacco. Paid for in gold, not CSA paper... Then he took his profits to Texas.
"The elephant in the room is NATO's inability to intervene directly, militarily. The US has already said, point blank, that there will not be any (official) US combat troops on the ground. Period. On this, Biden and Trump are as one."
Give it a little time.
"He Kept Us Out Of War!" - Woodrow Wilson campaign slogan, 1916.
Thx, and what's strange is virtually all of it is either lies or odd fabrications. I.e. people confusing me with someone else, claiming I was taking someone's identity whom I've never even heard of, another claiming I changed my stance on the Moskva sinking, which is totally false, I completely stand by my original thesis and have never deviated, etc. It made me wonder that there might be an impersonator out there who is making strange claims in my name. That would not surprise me as not only has there been an impersonator here in the comments section who was autobanned by the bot detection system, but on Telegram there's also an impersonator trying to scam people pretending to be me, whom I've warned people about before.
4/4/2024
I am pleased you didn't back down from Martyanov's criticism. Andrei has a great deal of technical knowledge about Russian and American military hardware but he presents it to his public in a course, written and spoken style that leaves his readers doubting their ability to proffer a question for fear of experiencing group condescension or worse, the ubiquitous "bye-bye."Andre Ravesky (formally The Saker, now defunct) has the same ego.
I can only conclude it must be an inherent trait in some Russian writers to exhibit their reporting void of reasonable comity whether on paper and ink or keyboard and video terminal.
I enjoy your work because it's generally a methodical presentation with a balanced foundation of reasonable prose buttressed with graphical images that help readers understand your observation of regional events. You don't interleave editorial thoughts with objective facts but instead we read a pause afterwards followed by a brief personal opinion that in some instances, one could sense an air of self-deprecation. Humbleness works for me, like a sage whose wisdom is appreciated without prejudice.
In fairness to Zelensky, you don't know her like he does. For all we know, it may turn out that's the entire purpose of the war. ;)
He's preparing to mobilize himself to exile in the West.
4 April 2024 Escalation? The F-16 in Ukraine : Pro and Con
NYT Still Trying The Brave Happy Face -https://archive.ph/05FDd
‘Ukraine could deploy F-16s as soon as July, but only a few’
Of a total 45 promised some 6 may arrive in July, from Denmark, 13 this year, the remainder in 2025
But – Ukraine’s runways need to be repaired ‘this could further delay their entry into war’
“I don’t think F-16s, to themselves, will be a game changer, due to the technical characteristics and number of F-16 teams that are coming,” said Yevgeniya Gaber, a former Ukrainian diplomat and foreign policy adviser.
“But I think together with other ammo, and long-range missiles, they will be,” said Ms. Gaber, now a professor at the George C. Marshall Center, a national security academy backed by the German and American governments.
The Realistic : Will Schryver - https://nitter.poast.org/imetatronink/status/1661059852897259521#m
« Can F-16s Fly Combat Sorties Over Ukraine? »
— A discussion of some of the most relevant considerations —
It is effectively impossible to base F-16s in Ukraine. The available runways are woefully deficient, and any aircraft remaining at one base for more than a single sortie are going to become a target of Russian strikes, along with the base infrastructure.
The Ukrainian air force has only managed to retain a handful of airframes to this point in time by assiduously hiding them, and constantly moving them around, using improvised airfields much of the time (highways, grass fields, etc.) The sortie rate of the remaining UAF aircraft is so small as to be nearly invisible. Indeed, with few exceptions, if they fly, they die.
But at least Soviet-era jets were designed and constructed to fly out of "guerrilla airfields". F-16s are not. F-16s require pristine runways and intensive maintenance after each sortie — almost 20 hours of maintenance for each hour of flight time!!!
This means highly trained / exceedingly experienced NATO ground crews and fully equipped maintenance hangars would need to be available anywhere the F-16 seeks to fly — along with an abundant supply of spare parts, spare engines, etc.
That simply is not going to happen in Ukraine.
‼️ This means the only plausible basing option will be at NATO facilities in Poland and/or Romania. And anyone attempting to argue against this reality is engaging in pure fantasy.
And, of course, flying F-16s against Russia from bases in Poland and/or Romania is tantamount to a formal declaration of WAR.
But let's assume NATO chooses that option ...
First, we need to consider what the mission of these F-16s will be. Is it to launch with long-range cruise missiles, rise to high altitude, and fire them from distant stand-off range? Because, as I understand it, the F-16 cannot carry, for example, a British Storm Shadow missile. The F-16 is not well-suited for the long-range stand-off role.
Furthermore, an F-16 at altitude over Ukraine is going to be seen by Russian AD assets from hundreds of miles away, and Russian air to air missiles and S-400 SAMs will outrange the F-16s capability to defend itself in almost any scenario.
Additionally, the Russians have clearly demonstrated the capability to routinely shoot down any stand-off munition NATO has launched against them.
I don't see how an F-16 mission to launch long-range stand-off strikes against Russian targets is going to produce any meaningful tactical successes, let along appreciable strategic effects. And I am certain it would only take the Russians a day or two to formulate highly effective ambushes against this tactic. Each subsequent F-16 sortie would then become a one-way kamikaze attack.
As for close-air support (CAS) of ground troops or combat air patrol (CAP) against Russian attack aircraft, there is simply no way the F-16 can accomplish either of those missions without readily available in-air refueling! And that is simply not going to happen over Ukraine. NATO's big, fat, slow tankers will be shot out of the sky at will by the Russians! There is no way of getting around that reality.
Moreover, from the moment the first F-16 commences an attack sortie from a NATO airfield, all NATO ISR assets in the theater will become targets. They will either cease to fly, or cease to exist. And, without them, the F-16 is no longer a useful tool.
Neither F-16s, nor any variety of NATO strike aircraft, are made to function in isolation from the huge logistical infrastructure that supports them. Therefore, the very sentence "Send F-16s to Ukraine" is a logically nonsensical statement.
Simply put, I cannot conceive of ANY way F-16s can be used against Russian forces in Ukraine, even if the latest generation of F-16 Vipers were being flown by experienced NATO pilots.
And, quite frankly, the same limitations would apply to ANY variety of NATO strike aircraft attempting to fly against the Russian military in its own backyard.
If the policy makers of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult succeed in initiating an air war against Russia in eastern Europe, it will result in catastrophic losses for US/NATO air power and the comprehensive destruction of the myth of US military supremacy.
Yeah that's not far at all, and the ashkeNAZis hide behind the mountain range, pop up, shoot and scoot back to base.
Maybe those bases should be introduced to "long range stand-off weapons".
Annexe
This F-16 deployment is render moot by the current RF destruction of electricity generation in Ukraine
https://johnhelmer.net/how-the-electric-war-is-redrawing-the-ukraine-map-in-black/
« “Even if the French/NATO plan a deployment in the Ukraine, what will they be deploying to?” the military engineer adds. “If the current Russian plan of attack is causing swings of 300+ volts, it’s not even safe to plug in a cell phone. We can safely assume that all manner of appliances and other expensive electrical or electronic equipment has been destroyed in the affected areas. Indeed, even if the power engineers manage to get the power back on, millions of light fixtures, especially the electronic/LED variety, are burned out. Diagnostic equipment (medical and technical), process instruments, programmable logic controllers, power supplies, inverters, frequency drives, bank machines, computerized checkout, refrigeration equipment, are burned up” »
« The next day, March 30, petroleum and fuel oil storages, which have been dispersed to shield them from attack and are necessary to power the emergency generators, were destroyed in the Poltava region. On Sunday, March 31, the targeting of gas storage and gas production around Lvov was also reported by the Defense Ministry in Moscow. “The Russian Aerospace Forces carried out a group strike with high-precision weapons on the facilities of energy infrastructure and the gas-producing industry of Ukraine. As a result of the strike, the work of the defense industry enterprises for the manufacture and repair of weapons, military equipment and ammunition was disrupted. All targets of the strike have been achieved. The objects are affected.””
"This is strategic; war has never been fought like this in Europe. The US and NATO general staffs and politicians have been taken by complete surprise. “The Ukrainians are building Maginot and Siegfried lines according to the instructions of their foreign advisers,” according to a Moscow analyst, “as if the Russian offensive will be men, artillery and tanks running across the landscape towards Kiev. But they won’t have to. The offensive against Ukrainian electricity cannot be stopped at these lines.”
Without effective defence for its power generating plants, distribution hubs, and grid lines, the Kiev regime’s power is being stopped across the country; the major Novorussian cities in the east – Odessa, Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk – are being blacked out and their populations forced to evacuate; the warmaking resupplies of the NATO allies are being cut off at borders which are now exposed to reversal of electricity surges threatening the plants and grids of southern Poland, Romania and Moldova. Even European and American money for President Vladimir Zelensky’s regime needs electricity to move."
"A western military source believes, like Russian sources, that the Russian General Staff will make no direct city attacks and will leapfrog over or bypass the new fortifications. Where they have been built to the east of Dniepropetrovsk and to the north of Kiev and Chernigov, the source suspects, “the Ukrainians have created a Siegfried Line which the Russians will use against them later. Some of the fortifications face the wrong way, but the dragons’ teeth, wire and ditches will work fine in reverse when the time comes to enforce the DMZ.” For more on how the demilitarized zone will be drawn, read this."
Thank you for those posts. Quite the best things I've read in a long time. You're a blogger? Or substacker?
Neither, unemployed with time on hand
- also a curiosity as to how deeply ingrained the in the west are their assumptions and self projections, in terms of efficiency power and rightness
When compared to this first in a long time reality test to scale - how these fall apart and why - what are the reasons for RF prevailing- is the ability to form a plan for oneself and one's own country
I'm in global south and many of the middle class unquestioning adopt/repeat the western assumptions, while the poor care not
Well your interests sound to me like they'd interest quite a few folks. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt to get yourself a substack account or whatever they call it and publish your thoughts from time to time. I reckon I'd subscribe for instance... Just on the strength of that post you made.
Thank you for this comment - but as I say I live a long way away in a very small backwoods town, very far upriver
Apart from the obvious inconvenience there are non trivial hindrances to a professional committment to a situation occuring so far away - internet restrictions mean impossible to access Russian sources, for one
S has frequently told how it is full time job
Distance does grant, perhaps, a cooler perspective, but this has to serve local applications to become valid - the revelation of western incompetence has to be put to use
Still, it might be possible for you to put up a "Buy me a coffee" link so we can express our appreciation in tangible form. I'd read the helmer article but although I follow Schryver I'd missed that one: Thanks!
I think that people like Gerrard and Sam and many others :) are a valuable addition to this substack and increase the quality.
Not that I don’t want to give him a cup of coffee :)
Gerrard might be a stupid comment or a fantasy but can’t the f16 take off from an aircraft carrier?
Yes, in theory, but where would the aircraft carrier be based? It's either the Med or the Baltic Seas, the latter being on Russia's doorstep, and therefore an absolutely prime time target the moment the first sortie departs for its suicide mission over Ukraine.
And it's similar in the Med. I think the aircraft would all require in-air refuelling which as GW has pointed out would swiftly cease to exist. Don't forget that the RF now has 24 hour air cover with MiG-31 over the Black Sea, all armed with Kinzhal missiles, and all capable of taking out an aircraft carrier.
And of course there are the Russian installations in the Med in Syria which could, in theory, also perform these duties. That latter would of course expand the war, but IMO the moment NATO thinks to fly any sortie from a non-Ukrainian airbase the gloves come off, and we are in de facto WW3.
Thank you!
Thanks for this comment
"And of course there are the Russian installations in the Med in Syria which could, in theory, also perform these duties. That latter would of course expand the war, but IMO the moment NATO thinks to fly any sortie from a non-Ukrainian airbase the gloves come off, and we are in de facto WW3."
NATO is betting that Russia lacks the will to escalate.
You'd need carrier training, for one, and I don't know whether the export version of an early F16 has the catapult attachment mechanism.
Then there is the question of where this carrier would be based.
The comment quality is a major reason Simplicius gets the one paid subscription I can afford.
I find the comments to be a major part of many sites I visit. Not all. But many. MoA a notable example.
Got any idea what happened to Russell Texas Bentley?
He's taking part in a discussion along with Larry Johnson and others this evening.
https://sonar21.com/a-discussion-foreign-mercenaries-in-ukraine/
excellent. thank you for the headsup. :)
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/blinken-pushing-ukraine-into-nato-to-start-wwiii/
The Neocons don't think in terms of logic. They think in terms of surviving in their bunkers with Zuckerberg licking their toes.
F-16 will change nothing, Ukraine had an airforce, they got destroyed. But introducing F-16's might cause several problems, as you mentioned.
It will not be possible to house them in Ukraine. That leaves NATO bases? The major problem is that F-16's can carry nuclear warheads, so every attack has to be treated as a possible nuclear attack.
If Russia AD fires at a F-16 that's returning to a NATO base the interception might be in NATO airspace.
What if F-16's leave NATO base to enter Ukraine just to fire a few missiles, how would Russia react on that? Or if Ukraine fires from NATO airspace? Didn't Russia used Belarus to attack Ukraine? Yet they are not at war with eachother. Which makes sense as Ukraine has nothing to gain to attack Belarus, or even has to capability.
And maintance has to be done by NATO, or have atleast a supervisor. Are to still jumping to join the Ukrainian side? The heroes of the west must have noticed the body bags coming back home, do they really think the rear is safe?
I don't see how this will work out. I've been saying for a long time that I expect NATO to do something incredible stupid. By the look of Stoltenberg we're getting close.
Stormshadows and SCALPs also can carry nuclear warheads?
Anyway, there already are plenty of NATO personnel in Ukraine, taking casualties, and no signs of anything like a mutiny.
Not going to work out. It's too little, much too late. As you've pointed out here the risks from escalation outweigh any advantage. But we're dealing with congenital idiots in high office, so continues the doom loop.
The F-16 is a vacuum cleaner with one engine. What airfields that the runways are cleaned so nothing is sucked up into the engine. They call this Foreign Object Debris (FOD).
In the USAF, this meant hundreds of maintainers walking arms-length intervals two to three times a day with eyes on the ground looking for any and every piece of debris that could be ingested by the multi-million dollar vacuum cleaner with ONE engine we were charged with maintaining. Imagine the preparation it would take to complete this process on a 10,000-foot-long straight highway, in the dark, while trying to be as inconspicuous as possible so as not to draw attention of collaborators or Russian spies.
Other problems: The MIG-29 averages about 11 hours of maintenance for every ONE hour of flight times. The F-16? A whopping increase to 18.5 maintenance hrs for everyone hr of flight time. These are per aircraft with experienced crews. These figures also assume decent airframe hours on the aircraft.
The only sensible purpose of F-16's is thereby their one or two time use as a launching vehicles for long range missiles like Bristish Storm Shadow cruise missiles that were given to Ukraine.
The F-16's are a nothing burger. I feel sorry for the pilots that are going to fly them.
"The F-16 is a vacuum cleaner with one engine." LOL ! Perfect description.
In the 1960's the Soviet military showed a film of NATO soldiers doing an FOD operation,
a line of men walking the entire length of a runway, looking for anything as small as a cigarette butt. I'm told the audience was laughing very hard.
I thought he was exaggerating.... why manufacture such a fragile weapon system? Anyway, the 25 remaining Abrams are still hiding somewhere
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Thanks for your comment – but it looks unlikely they will ever bring the F-16’s to bear, to coin a phrase
The NYT, usually very warmongerey, is full of plausible excuses – the Danes are notorious liars and very devoted to brown nose PR
The Danes have suffered, along with everyone, delays in the F35 deliveries intended to replace the F16’s ’given’ to Ukraine
Even the most foolish might hesitate to give away their planes while doing all possible to make an enemy of your close neighbour, against whom you are pretending to be re arming
They bought the F-35’s without weapons packages
All this about maintenance is fascinating. You fly one hour and then get actually worked on for 18 hours straight? Good god. What is happening that takes 18 hours? Sounds like the thing must be on the verge of collapse. What would happen if it flew for two hours?
Can you give some details? Sounds like they're doing a little more than changing the oil and checking the tyres.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VW-Xo6PbeCQ
This gives a basic answer to your question.
The F-16 needs a large number of ground crew to maintain the aircraft. Since I never hear about NATO training Ukrainian troops to become F-16 mechanics I don't take this F-16 talk from NATO about F-16s seriously.
From the NYT article « About 50 Ukrainian technicians are being trained in Denmark to support and repair the jets and handle their weapons packages, given that the F-16 is so complex that it generally takes eight to 14 people to maintain each one. Officials said Western defense contractors would have to accompany the jets into Ukraine, and remain with them, until there were enough Ukrainian crews to maintain them properly — a process that could take years. »
It seems unlikely as per usual with the Danes and the EU and NATO PR -all hat no cattle
Same with the M1 tanks. I was a M1 mechanic in the Army and know the work it takes to maintain them, let alone how to do it.
F-16s can't fly combat missions against Russian fighters, so it will be strictly standoff missiles...But I don't see any way Ukraine can create and maintain the antiseptic runways necessary, and the Russians have warned other countries that if missions originate from them, they will be hit...Strictly, not happening...
Given the multiple problems - the donors, the training, the pilots, the ground crew, the runways...not to mention the Russians
To put an F-16 into this war looks like an expensive suicide mission
But then a lot/most/all of this war has been a suicide mission for the West - how much do you bet that they will not try to, or keep on trying to
Russia could agree to a new Istambul, knowing that it will be quicky broken, because nothing has really changed in Kiev or Nato. Still, it could be possible, since Russia needs time too to consolidate its Asian integration. This will be a major victory for Biden who inmediately after being elected will restart the war, doubling down. So Russia can wait and see its enemy crumbling. Johnson is gone, Sunak will soon go. Same for Biden. And Macron faces a general upheaval in France before the end of his mandate. In addition, Israel is on the ropes. They have fooled the Russians a thousand times and think they can keep on doing it forever.
The funny-tragic thing here is that these scumbags think as follows: So Putin doesnt wnat peace (on our terms), so HE is responsible for every terrorist attack we organise on Russian civilians. They really do think in those terms.
They should be thankful Russians dont target about 3000 top level individuals in the west directly. Peace would be made in the world. But honestly, why should the Russians pursue peace now when war is getting them rid of the Ucranian nazis, the Russian fifth columnists and the west cultural and financial grip on the country?
You gotta wonder why the media doesn’t point out that Zelensky has been begging for more equipment and weapons for 2 years, but never asks why he desperately needs it or what happened to all the other stuff he was given. Reading between the lines he needs it because Russia has destroyed all the previous stuff. Same thing with why they desperately need more troops and why Zelensky just lowered the fighting age. I guess those '31,000' deaths left a big hole in troop strength.
How can the pro Ukraine folks not be able to read between the lines?
Its like the old covid mask bullshit. Masks work always and forever, and when they don't its because you didn't use them right. Same here - Zelensky has everything he needs to win, except when he doesn't because we let him down.
Cognitive dissonance in a nut Sam.
Hubris is very blinding
I'm really surprised that Ukraine has a minimum age of 27 and now 25 for new military recruits. They should do as the US does and lower the age to 18. That way they get to slaughter their young men before they have a chance to actually experience living. No need to allow them to know what living is all about and what they are about to give up!
So, will the US House of Reps toss in enough unacceptable border stuff to make any new Ukraine support dollars not happen? It seems like that has been the case.
Great article Simplicius! I've shared the link at our Substack
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-04-03
None of the border stuff will do a thing until both parties start arresting CEOs who are hiring illegal immigrants. They get caught and might pay a small fine and then do an again over and over.
That guy in your second video “they attack shopping centres in Moscow”
Only one as far as I know has been attacked. Did the Crocus perhaps suffer drone damage as well as Tajiks killing anybody that didn’t have the same colour of skin as they did?
The drones could come from Russia of course so this doesn’t rule any suspects in or out. But were drones used to attempt to destroy evidence?
And yes I think that the Tajiks were racist. There’s a lot of it about.
Too much of copies of other people's articles and not enough original analysis. I can get all this from other places on the internet.
well then why don't you do exactly that?
Yeah. I think I probably had a few scotches when I wrote this. I forget what my issue with this particular article was. But is is true that most "news" outlets simply cut and paste others' work. I hate to see images of X messages simply plonked onto a page as if the plonker now owned the work. So I go somewhere else. For the record, I am subscribed to Simplicious76. He/She brings analysis, facts and truths and angles to issues that I was not aware of. What the fuck do I know about Ukraine or Gaza for that matter? I was living in the US completely ignorant about what has been taking place in both places. I need to sift out what is shit and what is not.
I get your point – there are interesting writers who post analysis only
However I think the combination of analysis together with links and sources does open up the issues addressed in a user friendly way – often the analysis is also directed to why the link/source presented the information in this or that way
This allows us amateurs to pick up on sources of information, and to judge from some varying statements of facts, as well as S’s opinions
This is really useful regarding the Ukraine war where there is a huge amount of fake news etc, and one knows that MSM are deranged, and mainly interested in promoting war
There’s no good solutions here – hard work only
I don’t think analysis means what you think it means…
Great! Please tell us where?
Tell me, were you beaten with a stick so that you came here and had to read Simplicius' articles ? Believe me, if you leave sulking (to other well-informed authors!) we will not shed tears in our sorrow !
I have been working on a book for 9 years. For any serious research, every paragraph has 2, 3 or more sources, acknowledged and cited in footnotes. These links that you decry are simply the internet version of footnotes, and I would not take seriously any piece of research that did not include footnotes. So... good job... Simplicius for documenting your sources, data, and facts.
Plus providing original sources for information allows the reader, encourages the reader, to read the sources better to judge the analysis made by the author, in this case S, and better to learn for himself how to look for sources and to judge them
This is especially true in the case of overwhelming censorship and enforcement of an 'inner party' line (a dominant capitalist class line) which is designed to hide the truth from their own people and to suborn and oppress them by means of this, and the other parallel wars in progress
I helped edit an academic journal (history of science) some time ago and was involved in publishing (scientific and technical stuff). We were old-school, actually checking footnotes and research, and I can tell you that fraud is rampant in every academic field today. Check notes on much that you read that has been published or put online in the past 30 years, because much of it is rubbish. You can mostly trust stuff published before 1985, but little after. I like that Simplicius shows his sources. It shows integrity: a rare quality today.
There is no reason that 'science' should be insulated from society at large, especially when so much used by the dominant classes to browbeat the poor into submission, or to the invention of lucrative products and surveillance
Now ....medicine..there's a science which....I'll let you fill in the rest
You have to admire the Russian patience, but boy, I'm looking forward to the day they take Odessa!
That will be the real pain for the Western evil neocons, who are watching all their scheming blow back on themselves.
As the Russians say, "They will be biting their elbows".
not sure Russia will take Odessa.
Its not good city filled with a lot of jews and main port from Afghanistan - EU heroin route
Russia might establish non official proxy forces to control this city but not capturing or including it inside Russia
Odessa will be a Russian city, bet on it. Doesn't matter what the Ukes and the West have done to it, Russia will restore the city of Catherine the Great.
The Russians have to take it and they will. It brings any chances of the Ukies or their Western masters screwing around in the Black Sea to a complete end. It's also a Russian city.
This is precisely why the RF will clean up Odessa - the Ukies have turned their country into a major impex for the drug trade, and you are aware that this drug trade, while supported/encouraged by the US three letters services, is anathema to the RF
I can't wait to visit Odessa after it has been liberated. Nice town with a great history and a mosaic of cultures, nice people who know how to have a good time. I hope the liberation doesn't require the city's destruction. I believe saving the cities is one of many reasons the Russians are in no hurry.
Hence RF plans - de electrification, civilian evacuation, infiltration, and seige
As an attorney, I know when someone takes pride in their craft. I can tell you continue to refine your work, maintain an open mind, and value intellectual honesty. It's been a breath of fresh air for me. As soon as I gather the funds later this month or next, I will become a paying subscriber. Thanks Simplicius.
I don't think he was saying that.
Perhaps he is saying that attorneys need to know stuff like that - part of their profession. I don't think he was by any means restricting that talent to only attorneys. But I could be wrong.
He probably means that most in his craft, lawyering, are not taking pride at all but are just in it for the rent money. And that they, his colleagues, would say (or make up) anything in court or in client negotiations if only it gets them ahead. Hence the "fresh breath of air" that he feels from reading an honest soul like Simp, an honesty that he is dreadfully missing from within his own profession.
I think it's just that lawyers deal with (and in) a lot of BS, ranging from exaggerations to outrageous lies, so some lawyers become connoisseurs so they can cope with the stench.
I simply liked the part where the attorney doesn't have the jack for a sub- $100 purchase.
Now that's funny.
Snap. Simplicius literally is the only information/"news"/analysis source sufficiently valuable for me to be willing to pay real money. Especially valuable is his references/links. The way I look at this is: "he does the research so I don't have to." ;)
an attorney who has to scramble for funds to subscribe to a substacker? not our typical understanding of the economic state of an attorney...
G'day Arthur, depends if he is working for the local community centre or equivalent and has six kids plus we don't know his country of origin but yes I definitely initially had exactly the same thought.
Yes, I forgot about that: the question of country. Not every country has the same monetary rewards per job do they.... I forgot about pro bono, too. Yep. I was a bit simplistic and unfair... I ought to be more careful in my thinking and my remarks. :)
Lawyers don’t make as much as you think.
Some lawyers in some places don't make as much as I think. :)
Both my daughters are lawyers. They both are young. One is a public defender and the other works for the state of Washington. They only make ~100k which isn’t much these days.
Well in Australian dollars it's about twice what I know hard working 'ordinary' ( i.e. not professionals for instance ) Australians get. And the exchange rate means it would be $150k in $AU.
That seems to be good money is Aus right now. Triple your low ordinary.
Very difficult to be accurate of course, there being so many variables in type of work and location etc. Plus the habit of reporting to use 'averages' and 'medians' when what we really want is 'modes'.
So I think they're doing alright and could certainly afford a subscription to a Substacker.
Much has to do with expectations, doesn't it?
I know pensioners (age) who claim to be happy and comfortable on nothing but their pensions which are at about 20K I think.
And I know others who bring in about 60K and claim to be desperately short of money, deprived in an economic sense.
But the 60K cohort are buying homes with massive loans at rising interest rates and are desperately desiring to buy yet more as 'investment properties' and let them out for rent income.... So they're always wanting more ready cash to diminish the amounts they propose to borrow and to meet payments they must make... they're 'hustling for a buck', they will always see themselves as short of a dollar until the day they die.
The pensioners have their homes, bought or rented, that they've had for decades and seem to 'cut their suit according to their cloth' and are happy with it. That and a couple of modest subscriptions here and there...
It's all relative perhaps.
And it's all good, eh?
It's nice to have my beliefs affirmed, but I'd much rather hear the truth now than have the rug pulled out from under me. Thanks for the article!
Here are tabular, visual, and textual breakdowns and summaries of this post by Simplicius The Thinker:
https://open.substack.com/pub/complexiathesinker/p/llm-over-sitrep-4324
thanks but I think most of us here are a bit smarter than a bot :)
We know. (We analyze some of the comments.)
So what, you train a model off of comments here and "analyse" them? I don't think I nor anyone else here consented to our comments being used for your AI trash, and I would be surprised if Simplicius did either. Why not go get a useful job and let the people do their own writing and work?
«So what, you train a model off of comments here and "analyse" them?»
No, we do not train any models with the comments.
I want my 4 minutes back!
Complexia the Stinker?
That is a variation we are aware of. :)
Dyslexia the ringer?
Cool, but we were looking into name(s) hinting certain "duality":
- Simple vs. Complex
- Thinking vs. Absorbing or Internalizing (i.e. "sinking it in")
- Male name vs. Female name
But, if we seem dyslexic, well, we might deserve it... :)
It's far better to read the original post. What value do you imagine you are adding?
Good question! Here are some of our reasons:
1. Simplification: Large geopolitical texts often contain complex concepts, theories, and a range of historical events. Visual breakdowns or mind-maps simplify these ideas, making them easier to understand.
2. Visual Learning: Many people are visual learners. They comprehend and retain information better when it's presented visually. Graphs, charts, and mind maps cater to these individuals, enhancing their learning experience.
3. Overview: Tabular breakdowns, recapitulations, and mind-maps provide a quick overview of the information at a glance, helping readers to grasp the key points without having to read through lengthy texts.
4. Memory Retention: Visual aids such as these are crucial in enhancing memory retention. They help in better recall during further research, discussions, or examinations.
5. Time-Saving: Reading and understanding a large geopolitical text can be time-consuming. Recapitulations and visual or tabular breakdowns save time by summarizing the main points.
6. Contextual Learning: Using mind-maps or visual breakdowns allows readers to see the information in context. They can easily understand relationships and patterns, which is particularly useful for geopolitical studies.
7. Focus on Important Information: Recapitulations and visual aids can help to highlight and emphasize the most important points or themes of a text.
8. Accessibility: Visual aids make the information more accessible to people who may struggle with reading large amounts of text, such as those with dyslexia or visual impairments.
9. Study and Revision: They serve as excellent tools for studying and revision purposes. The summary and visual representation of information facilitates quick revision and helps in reinforcing the understanding of the topic.
10. Encourages Critical Thinking: Creating or interpreting mind-maps or tabular breakdowns encourages critical thinking as one has to assess the information, identify the key points and understand their relationships.
11. Popularization: These kind of recapitulations can make the blog of Simplicius The Thinker even more popular.
Why even reply if you're just going to spit out that GPT garbage instead of giving another human being the respect to write a reply yourself? What an insult.
Thank you! May I apply this to my architectural project briefs and teach my pupils too?
Sure! We will send you links to the prompts we use, and workflow(s) their invocations are parts of.
Meanwhile. we can take a look at the prompts (aka patterns) here: https://github.com/danielmiessler/fabric/
We use slightly modified versions of a few them.
As we mentioned elsewhere, we consider/research, the making a "general" Web service that creates this kind of breakdowns.
I've seen some reports that Zelensky bought Highgrove House from King Charles. Does anyone know if this is true?
This is not true - Z bought Buckingham Palace some time back, but he lets the King live there for the while
"Z bought Buckingham Palace some time back"
Probably a time-share. Can you rent just the balcony?
I reckon that if the Crown, or the PoW, or whomever exactly Highgrove belongs to, even thought of selling this house, the Brit press, and some part of the brit public would be up in arms, and screaming for blood
The King, and the PoW would not could not even mention this possibility - the Brit ruling class may not be the cleverest but this is not the time to sell one of their jewels
They won't be needing it as a residence, the royal family is now a shrinking demographic. Besides, with paying for all the cancer related medical expenses they will need some income.
why? they sold tower bridge with hardly a murmur. they let Assange hang on the cross. they support the nazis that were trying to kill me when I was born. there is no british nation any more. a herd of numb, dumb morons is all.
Nothing to argue with there - except that Tower Bridge is where it always was. It was the previous version of London Bridge that was sold off when it needed replacing, and someone was willing to pay to take it away and save us the cost of disposal. (Same principle as some of the weapons sent to the Ukraine?)
Oh... my mistake. Thanks for the correction. If that's the way it was I even approve. :)
the official story is that it's not confirmed. However, all the staff have been dismissed, which is indicative that there's a new owner.
That being said, Elena Zelenskaya is pretty good friends with "Queen" Camilla, for whatever sordid reason, so it's certainly plausible that Charles would be amenable to such a sale.
If that was the case, the official British Yellow Press would be all over it. So far, nothing. It would be a relatively simple thing to fact check at the land registry + business registry.
That said, it is not unlikely that Ukraine will soon have a "government in exile" in the UK, just as Poland did in WW2.
Bonnie King Charlie doesn't need it any more, he has vaxx-induced turbo cancer. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Where did mini-zee get the shekels? His wife handed over 20 million pounds for Charlie's country estate when she last slithered her way into Britain for a shoe sale extravaganza.
I had no idea that a psychotic murder-worshiping thug who taught himself how to play the piano badly with his little dick had legally earned so much money pretending to be an honest politician! So now he has homes in Israel, Spain, Italy and Florida...and BRITAIN!
Can you guess who he stole the money from?....or why he feels the need to own millions and millions of dollars in upscale international real estate?!?!?
I'm expecting him to not get the opportunity to enjoy the ill-gotten gains he's stolen on the stacks of dead Christian men he's deliberately exterminating in Ukraine. I figure he lives less than a year once he's stripped of his political protections. Let's hope his creepy bigoted wife gets some of the same kind of attention paid to her too. Judging her by her public pronouncements, she's even more evil than he is.
Wonderful family.
If anyone deserves the "Trotsky Fate", it is this thieving, murderous, lying snake in the grass pretending to be human, along with every single one of the monsters who surround him in their feverish and desperate late attempts to steal everything that's not yet stolen by the tribe and its co-conspirators.
I read that this morning. Nice of American taxpayers could help him buy it. Meanwhile homelessness in Biden’s America has gone up 12 percent.
Today (4/4/2024) is NATO's 75th anniversary. Here are related birthday cake images: https://complexiathesinker.substack.com/p/img-natos-75th-anniversary
Qu'ils mangent de la brioche.
Why would anyone want to view your AI Simplexia the Stinker art when art from real human beings is available? Learn a useful skill like art yourself, imagine what you could accomplish if you put your mind to it, instead you just ride off other people's achievements with the garbage that is next-token prediction. It's offensive seeing this AI rubbish in the comments here while you give responses to other humans that are outright written by a bot and not you. Internet is being filled with trash faster than ever because of people like you!
It's remarkable that simple, unbiased prompts produced provocative, grotesque, or captivating images that appear to be against war. This indirectly shows that most people are opposed to war, and we believe it effectively conveys that message.
I once heard "If events in your life are constantly surprising you because they don't happen as you predicted, then you are either biased or using bad data." I keep this idea in my head when evaluating my news sources. I prefer clear visibility into a subject over confirmation bias. My guess is your record and push for accuracy is the reason you've accumulated this audience.
It definitely feels like NATO knows something they aren't saying. I'm starting to wonder if Russia even will need a major push to get the line to collapse.
I think the CIA only tell politicians what they want to hear these days, so only zealots like Biden and Nuland actually believed they could balkanise Russia, while NATO knew the whole time that the only winners would be the arms industry (that NATO exists to serve).
I agree; when the mud dries Russia will be just doing the same as now, but the whole of the Ukrainian army (19-25 year olds or not) will have been turned to mince.
Hello Ernesto, thank you!
To be fair, we heard much the same thing last year after the Fall of Bakhmut.
For reasons best known to the Stavka, they decided not seize the initiative and let Ukraine launch its much hyped counteroffensive.
Ukraine giving up Russian held areas and the Donbass and a New Ukraine being formed (with a NATO/EU promise) would not stop Russia. They still couldn't have New Ukraine on their border; there'd just be more of the same. Is Zelensky this naive? But like they say 'cocaine's a hellava drug'.
I'd don't read MSM at all so it's kinda weirdo to know that people are coming round, within boundaries, to what was obvious from February 2022, that a war was unwinnable and from April 2022 that they knew this but continued to grind Ukrainians anyway.
Fall of '22, a couple of the mature, responsible (high income) members of my family tried to have some kind of a sit down to probe my crazy conspiracy theory based belief system, what with my saying batshit crazy stuff re: increased chances for a nuclear war, USA apparently ratcheting up restrictions on internet speech, MSM censorship, possible return to McCarthy era cold war mistreatment of those expressing dissenting opinions. They assured me that the Russians had too much to lose to start a nuclear exchange because they are getting kicked out of Ukraine. Totally blank looks when I said, "you have this backwards- THEY ARE NOT LOSING, our rulers are the ones who may push the button in desperation". At least they don't try to talk to me about geopolitics any more.
Hey, sounds like you and I have the same type of family. Wealthy and educated, but totally allegiant to main stream media, making them totally ignorant about what is really happening in the world. I'm the only one without the clot shot, too.
Me too. At my sister's wedding autumn '22, I said "Russia will win". They looked at me like something the cat had brought in. But when their kids are threatened with conscription…
The elephant in the room is NATO's inability to intervene directly, militarily. The US has already said, point blank, that there will not be any (official) US combat troops on the ground. Period. On this, Biden and Trump are as one.
Is there anyone in the western democracies (I use the word loosely) who thinks that any- even one NATO member- is going to put their own voters and voters' loved into this hell hole, that started out as a hollywood war movie where no one you care about really gets hurt and it was all flag waving, bunting and human interest stories, and has now become a film people switch off. Macron and his warmongering press buddies can put on flack jackets and go off to put their feet where their mouths have been.
It was the same movie-gazing viz Gaza- until the other day- and look at the outrage in the west. 7 'real people' got killed!!!!
The only people going anywhere soon are western leaders facing their own citizens in a vote.
Yes the 3 British aid workers killed by Israel was all over the MSM press yesterday. It's getting much harder to keep this narrative going- that we are behind Ukraine or Israel in any meaningful way- the public are assuredly not- so European politicians must find some way out of this mess.
I monitor the BBC (force myself to watch it) to see what sort of narrative they're spinning. They're still all in on Ukraine, but I'm seeing a definite shift in the reporting when it comes to Gaza. Don't know if it's just ass covering or a sign of change in the official narrative, but I notice there's far more Muslims in Britain than there are Jews, and that many of them come from similar situations to what's going on in Gaza - some even have relatives there. Something to worry about if you're a British politician I'd think.
Recently they trotted out some old hag trying to make Israel's case and failing badly, wagging her finger the whole time like that did anything but add even more banality to her rabid tirade. I though to myself, what the hell are they thinking putting her on? Not helping their case at all, unless that case has changed, because she came off like she was Hitler's grand-daughter, it was that bad.
But if their aim was to make Israel look bad, they did a bang-up job.
Interesting. I think it's easier to hide the Ukraine reality as the war of attrition has been so slow and kinda boring in terms of taking of land etc. Harder to hide 6 months of rapid destruction and terrorism of Gaza and its people and still say that Israel are going to 'win' and that we're on their side.
Yes definite shift over Israel in the UK.
I had a conversation recently with a left-leaning neighbour of mine who accused Putin of committing genocide in Ukraine. I pointed him towards Gaza and simply said "This is what real genocide looks like. Show me similar photos coming out of Ukraine."
As a leftie I knew he was pro-Palestine so it was an easy point to score. It did make him rethink his stance on Ukraine though. I follow a number of pro-Israel commentators and in the last 6 months they have had to perform all sorts of mental gymnastics in order to not criticise what's going on and justify the non-genocide that's occurring. It's going to be very difficult for Israel to come back from what they've done and make friends in the region or in the global south.
I've been reading Jacques Baud's book The Russian Art of War. Toward the end he does a quick comparative analysis on child civilian deaths. For the statistics available to him at the time, the Ukrainians and Russians between them have been managing to kill off only 0.94 children per day on average. Whereas the Israelis have a far superior sustainable performance at 141.7 children per day. [But perhaps 140.76 of them were Hamas fighters? ;)]
In fairness, most civilians killed in Ukraine/Russia are adults, which is not the case in Gaza, so the Israeli superiority in respect of killing adults will not be so extreme. If only because the buggers are better (than children) at trying to run away. :(
Also one important note is that Russia does not specifically target civilians and uses only precision weapons to strike targets in the rear. On the contrary Ukraine often uses not so precise weapons systems (like MRLS and tube artillery) to strike civilian targets (like Belgorod attacks). They obviously know that it is not possible to precisely strike individual military targets (I also highly doubt there are any there) within urban landscape with these weapons, but yet they still indiscriminately use them.
@RR
The demographics of the Gaza and Ukrainian civilian pools of potential victims and the desired outcomes of the Israeli and Russian leaders are total opposites. Gaza population started this with an average age of 19.6 YO. Israel is conducting "tribal warfare", where it is required to destroy the ability of the opposing tribe to ever come back at them (in an age where they can't just kill all the adult males & old people, enslave the children for profit and take the desirable women as slaves/concubines to boost their own population numbers as they used to).
Ukraine had an aging population already, average age was 40.5 YO in 2020 and predicted to go up by 10 years by 2150 (although the average age of Ukrainians "in country" has instead been going down fast, especially for males)- That demographic change has not been due to an increased birthrate. And the Russians would LIKE to keep as many of them around as are willing or wanting to officially resume being Russian (or just willing to get along as neighbors).
I think that would be 'The Russian ART of war'.
Hiya Phillip, I think it will be impossible for increasingly insane Israel to come back from this. As a nation who weaponised the Holocaust and who self identify as a persecuted people I think this will be a self fulfilling prophecy- they will be destroyed by the axis of resistance economically and physically.
Yes, pro-Israel supporters are doing gold medal winning mental gymnastics- they are bound up like pretzels, the muscles are quivering, the sweat is pouring and something's got to give!
Hi Jo, you've read between the lines and said all the things I didn't, but thought anyway.
It's easy to confuse "impartiality" with "lack of bias". The BBC has a long history of impartiality, but throughout its entire corporation history, and even beforehand when it was still a private limited company, it's consistently parroted the government line wherever possible. No problem with "impartiality": that merely means you have to give some token airtime to alternative perspectives.
All Big Media, whether "mainstream" or (anti)social, is by definition shareholder-funded or government-funded. Both variants necessarily promote bias. ;)
Israel has killed plenty of American / UK / EU aid workers, doctors, journos and whatnot over the decades. Nothing will happen.
Agreed but they and their life stories weren't plastered over all the front pages in the UK. We are not directly funding like the US is and have no influence over US policy so nothing will change apart from the distancing of our politicians from Sunak's original 100% one sided support for Israel.
Since when does what the public want or think matter?
And, the way news cycles work, in 2 weeks this will be forgotten and replaced with whatever du jour is going on
Pardon my cynicism...
Since when does what the public want or think matter?
And, the way news cycles work, in 2 weeks this will be forgotten and replaced with whatever du jour is going on
Pardon my cynicism...
The public's thought and wants sure matters to politicians when they want votes. We already have an anti war, anti Zionist MP in parliament, the Tory's are so unpopular already they'll probably lose but Labour won't want to lose any more seats to Galloway's Workers party at the General election coming this year or early next.
Gaza has been on social media for 6 months solid, and for young people in particular it ain't going away any time soon.
The disconnect between the narrative and reality is bleeding through more and more over the psychotic Israelis.
You have one anti war, anti Zionist MP. That's not going to result in any kind of meaningful change.
Even if Galloway (whom I respect and admire) were to become PM tomorrow, he would find himself stymied at every turn by his own government bureaucracy. See "Yes, Minister" for examples.
Hmm... I try to scan as many headlines as I can every day. I sense that the narrative has moved in the West from "we must support Ukraine in its fight with Russia" to "we are at war with Russia, or soon will be". I do hope you are correct.
I put to you and to them: 'whose this 'we' jazz, paleface?"
People who say those things, Marc, inhabit the world of boots in booths in Nevada remotely controlling drones as in some digital war game. None of these people are contemplating their own kith and kin going off to the Russian front. The public think the war would be like Iraq et al, happening to other people. The mood would change remarkably swiftly if any politician even suggested conscription right now, let alone conscription into active service.
Under government sponsorship the broadsheet MSM floated the idea of conscription last year and it was so incinerated, Sunak had to make a statement that there was NO intention of introducing conscription and indeed NO intention of putting UK troops into Ukraine to fight the Russians, conscription or not. Biden has said exactly the same for US troops.
Right at the start of this SMO the chatterati in charge in the West decided that 'Putin only understands strength' and ever since we have had to put up with the warmongering posturing and blather. But that is all it is, a storm of words, which will pass, is already running out of steam.
@Jullianne
Please look at Woodrow Wilson (the winning presidential candidate) re: His campaigns official posture of "Not Sending American boys to Die in a Foreign War" during the 1916 presidential elections? "He kept us out of war". Then some bankers with a lot of cash on loan to the British Empire got cold feet when the allies had a bad year in 1916? And voila, Zimmerman telegram, Lusitania eats several torpedoes, a group of bankers & war related industrialists buys at least one major newspaper in every large US city and changes the editorial policy to be pro British/pro war & William Randolph Hearst declares war on Germany.
Either Biden's owners will decide to get him the backing always given a wartime president (at the start, anyhow), or gin up a dramatic casus belli + another internet astroturfed groundswell of public opinion no matter WHO wins, this contest is not one they can afford to lose, much more so than their great grandparents could not take the loss on their loans a century back. Our rulers can't let go of this tiger's ears.
An important detail in slight rebuttal. The Lusitania was sunk on May 7, 1915. 18 months before the election which reelected this lying SOB. The US declaration of war came on April 6, 1917.
If you want to go down this rabbit hole, you could start with his handler, Colonel House, who worked for the Brits.
Thanks, I do need to proof read & check details more carefully-
"Colonel" House was an interesting piece of work. His family fortune originally came from father blockade running for the CSA, British military equipment, cotton, tobacco. Paid for in gold, not CSA paper... Then he took his profits to Texas.
It was different in the pre-nuclear days.... and pre western welfare state days. That aside, there really are limits to paper money power.
"The elephant in the room is NATO's inability to intervene directly, militarily. The US has already said, point blank, that there will not be any (official) US combat troops on the ground. Period. On this, Biden and Trump are as one."
Give it a little time.
"He Kept Us Out Of War!" - Woodrow Wilson campaign slogan, 1916.
Beat me to Woodrow Wilson by about 30 minutes... Also, we must remember Wilson's good friend and advisor, "Colonel" Edward M. House.
https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=2294
As I said elsewhere, them were very different days.