Things continue to feel like a calm before the approaching storm. There is not too much overt activity in the battle space, but various rumblings of a large looming escalation continue to trickle through the grape vine. In a recent article I had mentioned how the Western press and elite commentariat for the first time began using the taboo ‘C’ word, i.e. “Collapse”, for Ukraine. Now this has opened up the floodgates, causing more and more worried publications to begin turning off their previous holding-the-line narrative filter and actually start describing the Ukrainian situation with truthful urgency.
‘Ukraine could deploy F-16s as soon as July, but only a few’
Of a total 45 promised some 6 may arrive in July, from Denmark, 13 this year, the remainder in 2025
But – Ukraine’s runways need to be repaired ‘this could further delay their entry into war’
“I don’t think F-16s, to themselves, will be a game changer, due to the technical characteristics and number of F-16 teams that are coming,” said Yevgeniya Gaber, a former Ukrainian diplomat and foreign policy adviser.
“But I think together with other ammo, and long-range missiles, they will be,” said Ms. Gaber, now a professor at the George C. Marshall Center, a national security academy backed by the German and American governments.
— A discussion of some of the most relevant considerations —
It is effectively impossible to base F-16s in Ukraine. The available runways are woefully deficient, and any aircraft remaining at one base for more than a single sortie are going to become a target of Russian strikes, along with the base infrastructure.
The Ukrainian air force has only managed to retain a handful of airframes to this point in time by assiduously hiding them, and constantly moving them around, using improvised airfields much of the time (highways, grass fields, etc.) The sortie rate of the remaining UAF aircraft is so small as to be nearly invisible. Indeed, with few exceptions, if they fly, they die.
But at least Soviet-era jets were designed and constructed to fly out of "guerrilla airfields". F-16s are not. F-16s require pristine runways and intensive maintenance after each sortie — almost 20 hours of maintenance for each hour of flight time!!!
This means highly trained / exceedingly experienced NATO ground crews and fully equipped maintenance hangars would need to be available anywhere the F-16 seeks to fly — along with an abundant supply of spare parts, spare engines, etc.
That simply is not going to happen in Ukraine.
‼️ This means the only plausible basing option will be at NATO facilities in Poland and/or Romania. And anyone attempting to argue against this reality is engaging in pure fantasy.
And, of course, flying F-16s against Russia from bases in Poland and/or Romania is tantamount to a formal declaration of WAR.
But let's assume NATO chooses that option ...
First, we need to consider what the mission of these F-16s will be. Is it to launch with long-range cruise missiles, rise to high altitude, and fire them from distant stand-off range? Because, as I understand it, the F-16 cannot carry, for example, a British Storm Shadow missile. The F-16 is not well-suited for the long-range stand-off role.
Furthermore, an F-16 at altitude over Ukraine is going to be seen by Russian AD assets from hundreds of miles away, and Russian air to air missiles and S-400 SAMs will outrange the F-16s capability to defend itself in almost any scenario.
Additionally, the Russians have clearly demonstrated the capability to routinely shoot down any stand-off munition NATO has launched against them.
I don't see how an F-16 mission to launch long-range stand-off strikes against Russian targets is going to produce any meaningful tactical successes, let along appreciable strategic effects. And I am certain it would only take the Russians a day or two to formulate highly effective ambushes against this tactic. Each subsequent F-16 sortie would then become a one-way kamikaze attack.
As for close-air support (CAS) of ground troops or combat air patrol (CAP) against Russian attack aircraft, there is simply no way the F-16 can accomplish either of those missions without readily available in-air refueling! And that is simply not going to happen over Ukraine. NATO's big, fat, slow tankers will be shot out of the sky at will by the Russians! There is no way of getting around that reality.
Moreover, from the moment the first F-16 commences an attack sortie from a NATO airfield, all NATO ISR assets in the theater will become targets. They will either cease to fly, or cease to exist. And, without them, the F-16 is no longer a useful tool.
Neither F-16s, nor any variety of NATO strike aircraft, are made to function in isolation from the huge logistical infrastructure that supports them. Therefore, the very sentence "Send F-16s to Ukraine" is a logically nonsensical statement.
Simply put, I cannot conceive of ANY way F-16s can be used against Russian forces in Ukraine, even if the latest generation of F-16 Vipers were being flown by experienced NATO pilots.
And, quite frankly, the same limitations would apply to ANY variety of NATO strike aircraft attempting to fly against the Russian military in its own backyard.
If the policy makers of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult succeed in initiating an air war against Russia in eastern Europe, it will result in catastrophic losses for US/NATO air power and the comprehensive destruction of the myth of US military supremacy.
You gotta wonder why the media doesn’t point out that Zelensky has been begging for more equipment and weapons for 2 years, but never asks why he desperately needs it or what happened to all the other stuff he was given. Reading between the lines he needs it because Russia has destroyed all the previous stuff. Same thing with why they desperately need more troops and why Zelensky just lowered the fighting age. I guess those '31,000' deaths left a big hole in troop strength.
How can the pro Ukraine folks not be able to read between the lines?
So, will the US House of Reps toss in enough unacceptable border stuff to make any new Ukraine support dollars not happen? It seems like that has been the case.
Great article Simplicius! I've shared the link at our Substack
That guy in your second video “they attack shopping centres in Moscow”
Only one as far as I know has been attacked. Did the Crocus perhaps suffer drone damage as well as Tajiks killing anybody that didn’t have the same colour of skin as they did?
As an attorney, I know when someone takes pride in their craft. I can tell you continue to refine your work, maintain an open mind, and value intellectual honesty. It's been a breath of fresh air for me. As soon as I gather the funds later this month or next, I will become a paying subscriber. Thanks Simplicius.
Think everyone but Zelensky is on the front lines dying in trenches now. When will Zelensky mobilize himself? I mean he might as well. Would probably send his mother into the trenches before he himself set foot in them, pathetic man.
I once heard "If events in your life are constantly surprising you because they don't happen as you predicted, then you are either biased or using bad data." I keep this idea in my head when evaluating my news sources. I prefer clear visibility into a subject over confirmation bias. My guess is your record and push for accuracy is the reason you've accumulated this audience.
It definitely feels like NATO knows something they aren't saying. I'm starting to wonder if Russia even will need a major push to get the line to collapse.
Ukraine giving up Russian held areas and the Donbass and a New Ukraine being formed (with a NATO/EU promise) would not stop Russia. They still couldn't have New Ukraine on their border; there'd just be more of the same. Is Zelensky this naive? But like they say 'cocaine's a hellava drug'.
I'd don't read MSM at all so it's kinda weirdo to know that people are coming round, within boundaries, to what was obvious from February 2022, that a war was unwinnable and from April 2022 that they knew this but continued to grind Ukrainians anyway.
The elephant in the room is NATO's inability to intervene directly, militarily. The US has already said, point blank, that there will not be any (official) US combat troops on the ground. Period. On this, Biden and Trump are as one.
Is there anyone in the western democracies (I use the word loosely) who thinks that any- even one NATO member- is going to put their own voters and voters' loved into this hell hole, that started out as a hollywood war movie where no one you care about really gets hurt and it was all flag waving, bunting and human interest stories, and has now become a film people switch off. Macron and his warmongering press buddies can put on flack jackets and go off to put their feet where their mouths have been.
It was the same movie-gazing viz Gaza- until the other day- and look at the outrage in the west. 7 'real people' got killed!!!!
The only people going anywhere soon are western leaders facing their own citizens in a vote.
4 April 2024 Escalation? The F-16 in Ukraine : Pro and Con
NYT Still Trying The Brave Happy Face -https://archive.ph/05FDd
‘Ukraine could deploy F-16s as soon as July, but only a few’
Of a total 45 promised some 6 may arrive in July, from Denmark, 13 this year, the remainder in 2025
But – Ukraine’s runways need to be repaired ‘this could further delay their entry into war’
“I don’t think F-16s, to themselves, will be a game changer, due to the technical characteristics and number of F-16 teams that are coming,” said Yevgeniya Gaber, a former Ukrainian diplomat and foreign policy adviser.
“But I think together with other ammo, and long-range missiles, they will be,” said Ms. Gaber, now a professor at the George C. Marshall Center, a national security academy backed by the German and American governments.
The Realistic : Will Schryver - https://nitter.poast.org/imetatronink/status/1661059852897259521#m
« Can F-16s Fly Combat Sorties Over Ukraine? »
— A discussion of some of the most relevant considerations —
It is effectively impossible to base F-16s in Ukraine. The available runways are woefully deficient, and any aircraft remaining at one base for more than a single sortie are going to become a target of Russian strikes, along with the base infrastructure.
The Ukrainian air force has only managed to retain a handful of airframes to this point in time by assiduously hiding them, and constantly moving them around, using improvised airfields much of the time (highways, grass fields, etc.) The sortie rate of the remaining UAF aircraft is so small as to be nearly invisible. Indeed, with few exceptions, if they fly, they die.
But at least Soviet-era jets were designed and constructed to fly out of "guerrilla airfields". F-16s are not. F-16s require pristine runways and intensive maintenance after each sortie — almost 20 hours of maintenance for each hour of flight time!!!
This means highly trained / exceedingly experienced NATO ground crews and fully equipped maintenance hangars would need to be available anywhere the F-16 seeks to fly — along with an abundant supply of spare parts, spare engines, etc.
That simply is not going to happen in Ukraine.
‼️ This means the only plausible basing option will be at NATO facilities in Poland and/or Romania. And anyone attempting to argue against this reality is engaging in pure fantasy.
And, of course, flying F-16s against Russia from bases in Poland and/or Romania is tantamount to a formal declaration of WAR.
But let's assume NATO chooses that option ...
First, we need to consider what the mission of these F-16s will be. Is it to launch with long-range cruise missiles, rise to high altitude, and fire them from distant stand-off range? Because, as I understand it, the F-16 cannot carry, for example, a British Storm Shadow missile. The F-16 is not well-suited for the long-range stand-off role.
Furthermore, an F-16 at altitude over Ukraine is going to be seen by Russian AD assets from hundreds of miles away, and Russian air to air missiles and S-400 SAMs will outrange the F-16s capability to defend itself in almost any scenario.
Additionally, the Russians have clearly demonstrated the capability to routinely shoot down any stand-off munition NATO has launched against them.
I don't see how an F-16 mission to launch long-range stand-off strikes against Russian targets is going to produce any meaningful tactical successes, let along appreciable strategic effects. And I am certain it would only take the Russians a day or two to formulate highly effective ambushes against this tactic. Each subsequent F-16 sortie would then become a one-way kamikaze attack.
As for close-air support (CAS) of ground troops or combat air patrol (CAP) against Russian attack aircraft, there is simply no way the F-16 can accomplish either of those missions without readily available in-air refueling! And that is simply not going to happen over Ukraine. NATO's big, fat, slow tankers will be shot out of the sky at will by the Russians! There is no way of getting around that reality.
Moreover, from the moment the first F-16 commences an attack sortie from a NATO airfield, all NATO ISR assets in the theater will become targets. They will either cease to fly, or cease to exist. And, without them, the F-16 is no longer a useful tool.
Neither F-16s, nor any variety of NATO strike aircraft, are made to function in isolation from the huge logistical infrastructure that supports them. Therefore, the very sentence "Send F-16s to Ukraine" is a logically nonsensical statement.
Simply put, I cannot conceive of ANY way F-16s can be used against Russian forces in Ukraine, even if the latest generation of F-16 Vipers were being flown by experienced NATO pilots.
And, quite frankly, the same limitations would apply to ANY variety of NATO strike aircraft attempting to fly against the Russian military in its own backyard.
If the policy makers of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult succeed in initiating an air war against Russia in eastern Europe, it will result in catastrophic losses for US/NATO air power and the comprehensive destruction of the myth of US military supremacy.
You gotta wonder why the media doesn’t point out that Zelensky has been begging for more equipment and weapons for 2 years, but never asks why he desperately needs it or what happened to all the other stuff he was given. Reading between the lines he needs it because Russia has destroyed all the previous stuff. Same thing with why they desperately need more troops and why Zelensky just lowered the fighting age. I guess those '31,000' deaths left a big hole in troop strength.
How can the pro Ukraine folks not be able to read between the lines?
So, will the US House of Reps toss in enough unacceptable border stuff to make any new Ukraine support dollars not happen? It seems like that has been the case.
Great article Simplicius! I've shared the link at our Substack
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-04-03
That guy in your second video “they attack shopping centres in Moscow”
Only one as far as I know has been attacked. Did the Crocus perhaps suffer drone damage as well as Tajiks killing anybody that didn’t have the same colour of skin as they did?
Too much of copies of other people's articles and not enough original analysis. I can get all this from other places on the internet.
You have to admire the Russian patience, but boy, I'm looking forward to the day they take Odessa!
That will be the real pain for the Western evil neocons, who are watching all their scheming blow back on themselves.
As an attorney, I know when someone takes pride in their craft. I can tell you continue to refine your work, maintain an open mind, and value intellectual honesty. It's been a breath of fresh air for me. As soon as I gather the funds later this month or next, I will become a paying subscriber. Thanks Simplicius.
It's nice to have my beliefs affirmed, but I'd much rather hear the truth now than have the rug pulled out from under me. Thanks for the article!
Here are tabular, visual, and textual breakdowns and summaries of this post by Simplicius The Thinker:
https://open.substack.com/pub/complexiathesinker/p/llm-over-sitrep-4324
I've seen some reports that Zelensky bought Highgrove House from King Charles. Does anyone know if this is true?
Think everyone but Zelensky is on the front lines dying in trenches now. When will Zelensky mobilize himself? I mean he might as well. Would probably send his mother into the trenches before he himself set foot in them, pathetic man.
Today (4/4/2024) is NATO's 75th anniversary. Here are related birthday cake images: https://complexiathesinker.substack.com/p/img-natos-75th-anniversary
I once heard "If events in your life are constantly surprising you because they don't happen as you predicted, then you are either biased or using bad data." I keep this idea in my head when evaluating my news sources. I prefer clear visibility into a subject over confirmation bias. My guess is your record and push for accuracy is the reason you've accumulated this audience.
It definitely feels like NATO knows something they aren't saying. I'm starting to wonder if Russia even will need a major push to get the line to collapse.
Ukraine giving up Russian held areas and the Donbass and a New Ukraine being formed (with a NATO/EU promise) would not stop Russia. They still couldn't have New Ukraine on their border; there'd just be more of the same. Is Zelensky this naive? But like they say 'cocaine's a hellava drug'.
I'd don't read MSM at all so it's kinda weirdo to know that people are coming round, within boundaries, to what was obvious from February 2022, that a war was unwinnable and from April 2022 that they knew this but continued to grind Ukrainians anyway.
The elephant in the room is NATO's inability to intervene directly, militarily. The US has already said, point blank, that there will not be any (official) US combat troops on the ground. Period. On this, Biden and Trump are as one.
Is there anyone in the western democracies (I use the word loosely) who thinks that any- even one NATO member- is going to put their own voters and voters' loved into this hell hole, that started out as a hollywood war movie where no one you care about really gets hurt and it was all flag waving, bunting and human interest stories, and has now become a film people switch off. Macron and his warmongering press buddies can put on flack jackets and go off to put their feet where their mouths have been.
It was the same movie-gazing viz Gaza- until the other day- and look at the outrage in the west. 7 'real people' got killed!!!!
The only people going anywhere soon are western leaders facing their own citizens in a vote.
Great post. Keep on the high ground. Really appreciate the professional tone.