Because it's mostly a mind game and dissociating themselves with "NATO" as much as possible would work towards alleviating Russia/NATO tensions because it would act as a sort of indirect/implied message to Russia that "we come not as NATO but as something else". This would be meant to somewhat allay Russia's fears and keep it from treating the encroachment with the standard raised-hackles existential reaction programmed into Russia in the face of a true NATO conflict.
It was pretty obvious from the beginning, and even more so now, that aside from the nazi fanatics represented by Azov and the its ilk, Ukrainians don't want this war and are not willing to die for NATO.
Imagine if you will , a double barrel event. The collaspe of Ukraine closely followed by the collaspe of Israel (rising domestic opposition in USA, internal conflict, some form of cival strife, Hizb give the final kick in balls -could happen) , Let us pray.
Same thing was said about Cuito Cuanavale. White South Africa gave up thier nukes. Amazing things happen. We get frozen in the now but the list of impossibles is long: Pol Pot on trial, Saddam and Gaddafi lynched , East Timor , Latin American Generals on trial, end of Suharto, Vietnam and on and on and on. These things were SOLID in thier day. NO CHANGE POSSIBLE....and yet the wheel turned......Israel had a lot of internal problems prior to current events and current events are just gonna make 'em worse. Plus all the outside problems it faces. Maybe it will pull through but I thinks history is against it. Let the blood flow!!!!
You're right, we are somewhere south of 40 million.
Now the already here illegals for the most part have been here for some time and were not receiving the insane benefits the new arrivals are. And I don't know that they are being allowed to access those benefits.
As the jobs, housing, they have depended upon will now be under real pressure, they may view the new illegials as more of a threat to themselves than we do.
“…they may view the new illegials as more of a threat to themselves…” May? They hate them for the reasons you suggest and more. The Mexicans hate the Venezuelans. A 99% “hispanic”, i.e. actually 99% of those being Mexican, “sanctuary” town bordering Chicago, turned away a column of buses bringing in the invaders, threatening to fine the driver $30,000, bus companies thousands and each invader another fine of, I think another thousand dollars.
"they may view the new illegials as more of a threat to themselves than we do." I believe this is called 'horizontal violence' in the academic literature...
They have an ever-increasing number of desertions in recent times and several situations where entire units refused to fight. But far more than that, literally millions of young men and women have fled the country refusing to join the military and trying to avoid extradition from their current countries of residence in order to avoid mobilisation.
The Ukronazis are the mutineers, the loyalists are the dissidents who refused to accept the US-Ukronazi putsch and have been fighting them ever since. The possibility of mutiny always exists but military forces are usually well prepared to prevent them. Individuals have to vote with their feet (while they still have them) which might explain the 100,000 deserters.
Look at USSR era maps showing iodine deficiency in Ukraine's soils. Note that Galicia is kind of fucked in this regard?
Then look at the effects on human intelligence of growing up chronically short of iodine in one's diet.
Consider that post 1991, nobody in the Ukrainian kleptocracy was wasting any money on iodizing table salt (as was done under the USSR) when cheaply mined local rock salt could be procured locally and sold at full price with no additional expenses for adding a bit of iodine and no one noticing that minor ommision?
Yes, those iodine deficiency related issues are well known. See link for various studies showing measurable neurological efects (even where physical abnormalities are not seen).
I don't need to read this. I think it was A Swiss Doctor working on his own who discovered these abnormalities. Many women had to bring up retarded kids and it was difficult for the women to fight their husbands.
Many women on the advice of 'so-called' witches put salt in the food for their families.
It's an open secret know.
One of the other things of note: Mining communities (lithium) in the USA.
I've tried to patiently explain that Russia isn't fighting much of an insurgency in the Donbas and Crimea because the people who live there for the most part were either pro-Russian or neutral. I've also explained that if those regions had a U.N.-administered vote for leaving Ukraine, it would be an overwhelming yes, which is why the U.S. and EU has not demanded that there be any democracy in the Donbas. They prefer to claim the Crimean election and other referendums in Donbas were rigged elections. (Fairly ironic, given the irregularities of the 2020 U.S. presidential election)
Azov and co did want this war, but ran away when it came to actually fighting it. As for NATO and there Americans, they’ve been making excuses since day 1.
Iven got to say it that respect is due to the actual Ukrainian soldiers like the 47th, but I guess they’re pretty much similar people fighting each other entirely because of NATO!
This whole hunting for the recruits on the streets of Ukrainian cities or the western allies' bold statements about helping out with sending the "volunteers" back raises an interesting question: is a citizen free or is he a property? Free riders are of course annoying but in a society that believes in it being the sovereign and in the government being its servants the citizens would either negotiated peace or fight w/o discussion.
This gives us a good baseline understanding of Wagner casualties at the peak of Bakhmut.
The problem is, the battle raged mostly for 4-5 months, from January-Feb to May, as Soledar I believe fell in January, and only then did Wagner *really* start going all in on Bakhmut.
So, if we take 4-5 months and multiply them by the average between the two 20-50 figures (35), we get 120-150 days x 35 = ~4000-5000 losses.
The fact that he named 93 casualties in one day as a particularly outrageous high point is significant because it means they rarely get such days. The reason that's important is because in order to have hit the alleged 20,000++ dead claimed in Bakhmut, Wagner would have had to suffer 120-150 days / 20,000 = ~150 dead per day on AVERAGE.
So why did Prigozhin himself claim 20k dead in Bakhmut? His claim came at a time when he was clearly exaggerating for effect to anger the Russian populace against the MOD. There were other signs of hyperbole and exaggeration at that time.
Some, however, claim there are in fact 20,000 Wagner marks on the infamous black pyramid monument, but to my knowledge this hasn't been confirmed by anyone.
Ok, but you said the whole war not just Bakhmut. But if Wagner suffered only 4000-5000k losses in Bakhmut, it's difficult to believe they suffered an additional 31k losses elsewhere to hit 36k. You see my logic?
In the end we can't know for certain, and I'm not saying my version is necessarily right, but those are just the facts and there is good reason to believe Prigozhin was widely exaggerating as other evidence I've put forth from his own mouth seems to suggest, but at the same time, it could also be true.
Read above I actually just wrote it under original comment. Btw, see this for Prigozhin's detailed explanation of his claimed loss distribution for sake of interest: https://www.bitchute.com/video/zSIUQEYdeUyW/
I forgot to mention. That's the other reason which supports my statements about Wagner's losses. Mediazona has total ~3000 or so deaths of PMCs recorded:
If Wagner had 20-40k deaths, why would MediaZona record such a tiny fraction? This is another potential hole in Prigozhin's theory. Maybe they counted the inmates in Wagner under the separate 'inmates' column, which lists 9k casualties. But that's over the whole conflict. Either way it strongly clashes with Prigozhin's numbers or even higher figures claiming 36k Wagner casualties, etc.
My personal estimate is that the Russian *forces* may have anywhere between 45-75k KIA casualties, with Ukraine north of 350k (with 450+ being possible).
However, a huge proportion of the KIA on Russia's side are prisoners, both from Wagner and Storm Z style battalions, as well as DPR/LPR. The actual *Russian Army* proper's proportion of losses is likely as little as 25-35k.
Mediazone actually lists the exact percentage breakdown, and between prisoners, PMC's, and 'volunteers', that alone accounts for almost 40% of all losses on the Russian side. That means only 60% of the losses would be from nominal Russian army structures. So if we apply that to a total of a notional 50-70k, that would yield 30-42k being actual Russian army losses.
Need to include DPR/LPR into Russian forces proper because it's been a year now that they are officially the 1st and 2nd Army Corps in the Russian order of battle.
Having said that, Russian casualties are probably within the range you cite, but I think 350,000 Ukro deaths are too many. That number would imply an average of 448 KIA per day over 2 years and 2 months, which at first glance seems too high of a rate
And most days it lists between 600-1200 personnel losses.
Problem is, they don't specify if that's actual KIA or total "casualties" which can be wounded as well.
Hard to say but even if it's total casualties, the fact that most days it's 800-1000 would mean minimum 300-500 of those are KIA.
Secondly, during many of the most intense battles like Bakhmut, we got very revealing numbers from Ukrainian personnel themselves, and the numbers were often shocking. For instance here's a AFU commander saying they lose 2 companies per day just in Bakhmut alone: https://www.bitchute.com/video/WFZMB0E15Yl7/
There's another video of an AFU POW admitting an entire battalion being lost in a single night, that's upwards of 1000 killed.
In the end we can't be sure, an 450 KIA does sound high but it may be plausible.
Many MIA as well (probably dead) as Zelensky dictator does not want to pay families compensation and insurances, this is why he is talking about 34k kia..which is ridiculous, just by watching videos on telegram of hundreds of cemeteries pretty full with all their flags even in Llov.
They're playing for the subsidies, part of which are scaled to population, some to force size. So all the books are gonna be cooked. But despite that, someone in AFU is going to know well enough how many they sent and how many aren't there a year later. Cel phone usage data is another angle.
I further forgot that *multiple* figures in Ukraine have admitted they need 30,000 men per month just to recoup/sustain. Here's one: https://www.bitchute.com/video/m7QOkydxyWQq/
But I believe Budanov and others also admitted it, though they didn't openly state it was for "losses" but just said we need 30k per month.
30k "irrecoverable losses" (dead plus maimed) per month after ~27 months is over 800,000.
Let's just be charitable and say the 30k figure represents half KIA half maimed (irrecoverable losses who can't fight again).
That would be ~400k dead 400k irrecoverable...so it still squares with the figures.
I don't know Simp, I can't wrap my head around the extent of the slaughter.
I am sceptical though of the official numbers of AFU casualties released by the Russians...most KIAs would be from artillery, but how would the Russians know the number of victims they mete with each shot? Difficult they rely on drones hovering on enemy lines, cannot really count victims inside collapsed buildings, etc.
Russian MoD probably computes AFU deaths in a totally theoretical fashion, based on estimated density of enemy troops within the sector swept by artillery, the number of shells fired per area, and the lethality (probability of killing) for each shell type. So the estimated KIAs result is very ballpark, unreliable and prone to be inflated
How it works is each subunit records each kill they get and it gets passed up the chain. A drone unit reports their kills to the company, the company commander tallies all the kills reported by his platoon commanders and sends it up to battalion. The battalion tallies all his companies and sends it up to brigade...etc, etc. up to echelon level.
Russians are extremely stickler for numbers/figures as one of the chief complaints from commanders on the ground have been how meticulously the old sovok generals stick to 'outdated' systems of endless reports/journals/etc. where every single figure has to be noted down, which mires commanders in hours of work, prohibiting them--in their view--from concentrating on more important tasks.
I have a video I can find where Russian assault troops enter a trench and the commander immediately starts barking at the deputy to begin counting all AFU corpses, noting them down in the official paperwork, which the deputy begins doing on camera.
They are very anal about counting each loss.
Does that mean they're accurate? We can't be sure. But I'm simply pointing out the process of how it works. Each of the smallest units records their daily kills and feeds it up the chain, the MOD then tallies the numbers from every single brigade, corps, sector, etc., and releases the totals, which are usually 700-1000 or so.
Sounds like a method that lends itself to high margins of error.
I remain convinced that at least for artillery (that accounts for most of the kills) there is no other way to keep tabs than estimate these losses statistically
No, Martyanov covered this many times. Russia uses what's called "объективный контроль" (objective control). Every piece of hardware must have low res camera which works all the time to register missile shots etc. Every regiment have people who are not in chain of command whos only job is to collect data from cameras, literally check corpses, count bodies from drone footage etc. Why that's important? First, purely monetary - you get paid for certain materiel kills, you getting awards based on deeds etc. Also, those numbers eventually go up by grapevine so military eggheads can alter equipment efficiency coefficients.
If you don't have objective control data - your strike did nothing, you killed nobody, nothing happened. That's why Martyanov always harps about Russian MOD data being conservative in nature
I agree when counting DPR LPR maybe real Wagner (not prisonners). Look at 'serious injured' far more on ukie side as medical front staff from RU is far better and faster on spot.It is 'good' for us as they will never come back to fight not maybe even at the rear for many.
This 40% of losses from prisoners (...). Can you make a report of the way they are (or were) using this type of man? In WWII, the Germans had Division 999, but this refers only to people who were (mainly) sentenced by the Army. On the other hand, the SS had some really bad criminals in their ranks. Remember the Dirlwangers unit. The losses of both kinds of units were deadly; they were used to clear the way for real elite forces. Does the Russian Army have these Dirlwanger units? Wagner seems to have used criminals within the normal structure. How is (or was) the Russian Army (or the militas) using this pool of men?
I saw something on a Ukrainian TV channel were it had the combined KIA + MIA for Ukraine at 1,125,000. This was about 4 months ago. No idea where I saw it, but see it I did.
Plausible and oddly enough equates with my own estimate of UAF losses. I'd put RF losses higher incl LPR/DPR etc but maybe 20 to 25% of UAF losses only, with a lower ratio of permanent losses to the UAF - along with your source. And 100,000 deserters would explain a lot.
Some reports say DJT lost a third of his value leaving office compared to when he entered. Surely you didn't miss everyone trumpeting something similar around to try and humiliate him. As far as I could find only 2 presidents in America's history left office poorer than they entered and Trump is one of them.
What you said could apply to any number in the universe about any topic. Anyhows the report came from Forbes and generally looked at the value of his assets.
"Trump's fortune fell from $3.5 billion to $2.4 billion between entering office in January 2017 and departing the White House less than three months ago, according to Forbes.
Several of Trump's major properties suffered declines in value, as did his hotel management and licensing business. However, his Florida club, Mar-a-Lago, saw a considerable improvement in net value."
Feel free to post your argument that he left the White House richer than he entered as you please.
I don't mean DJT had foreknowledge of a 'purpose,' as if he were magicking a Grand Scheme, but it happened nonetheless.
The fact of his presidency, the fact of his disruptive presence, how opposed the Interagency was to him--the Interagency's political assassination of him--the various hoaxes made it impossible to focus complacently on the puppet much at all: the puppeteer's wrist was calling out for beaucoup attention
OMG, thet anyone thinks this chosen full-cledged delusional zionist is revealing anything of usefulness is maddening. Look at his appointees, no better than Biden's, in fact many of the same. And BTW, Trump escalated our military involvement in Ukraine.
The business of War is Only important to Western elites. What we call the West can survive perfectly well without treating for example african countries like colonies, like in the case of French elites.
It will be even better if the West treated these countries with respect like for example China does, because it will grow their economies and will in the end benefit Western companies, economies and people.
It is only the elites that gain anything from these wars and chaos that we see now, and have been seeing for centuries.
That assumes the top end pays tax proportionallly or at all, investments and fake borrowing rates and write offs tend to negate or wipe all tax if even incurred and that assumes there is a tax scale that increases with earnings. One of the things Trump did was to lower tax rates for the high income earners whilst the MAGA lot cheers him on. Go figure?
A question, mishkin is poor in bahasa Indonesia is that where your Princely name arose? Am curious!
Dostojewskis The Idiot main character is Prince Myshkin, its one of my favorite novels.
Hard to say really, I am just speculating. But currently, in Germany and the US, they already ramp up taxes, sometimes they even admit it's because of the 'Russian aggression'. Yeah, inflation will also burn that up.
The aid package is mostly to pay money to US companies and budgets. Money that was already spent. I’m guessing the Israeli aid was similar and that’s why it passed all of a sudden. But your broader point about trump is correct.
Whoever is POTUS since JFK does not matter. Even a cow or a monkey in the WH does not matter. Deep state aka COG = continuity of Govt which is MIC + AIPAC is in charge, they were the one behind 9/11 and since then they ctrl everything, not even the Pentagon. Cheney organized 9/11 with rogue CIA + mossad agents against Bush who was exfiltrated from the school(and no more potus during 7 hours).This is why VVP says he prefers Biden to Trump, need to choose between plague and cholera.
The media and the whole establishment wouldn't have treated Trump like the devil incarnated for 4 years and beyond, if the Presidency were just a ceremonial sinecure
No he was treated like that because he stood against 'them' over many issues. First among those is the Ukraine situation after Maidan 2014: if Hillary had won we would have had the Ukraine war starting 4 years earlier. Remember Trump was accused pretty heavily and without evidence of Russian collusions that with hindsight were totally bogus. Much help for organising the scandal came from the SBU. This is by no accident
I often think that the reality show did him no favours as it left many with a view of him as a villianous boss. Before that he was mostly just a weird rich dude. We all should know by now that these reality type shows have very little in terms of actual reality. Now maybe he is and maybe he's not but I'm sure it didn't help his image/PR. That and the daily assaults on him by CNN, MNBC, and the rest.
Some say that POTUS is the leader of the free world so that would put many in a weaker position than him.
I would say something about those Abramic accords, or whatever they were, but now with Israel/Gaza - that may be dead in the water?
I think it might have taken some balls to cross over into North Korea with the Rocket Man.
I agree that the 2020 elections smells very fishy.
"unless you consider it an achievement that he accelerated the decline of U.S. society and its standing in the world"
Conversely his doing nothing is a major achievement. No new wars, opening up of North Korea, opening up of Saudi Arabia, and no one globally really tried to start anything while Trump was in office. Compared to the constant decline of Clinton-Bush-Obama-Biden the comparatively little that happened during Trump's time until the covid stuff was a huge relief. It might even be said that everyone Trump got close to, such as the aforementioned NK/Saudis, have openly aligned themselves against the Biden Deep State USA in vengeance for the steal.
The whole "Ukraine call" furore makes perfect sense since the prior employment of Hunter Biden came out, and definitely after Feb 2022.
The US oligarchs and ruling elite (overlapping) were basically treating Ukraine like an all you can eat smorgasbord. The business with Bankman Fried as well. It all joins up.
There are different factions within the Establishment. Trump was the front man for a minor faction trying to make it's play before the End Game. They failed.
A good analogy is the NFL. Those running for office are teams on the field, honestly competing with each other to win. Those calling the shots are nowhere near the field, and don't particularly care who wins so they allow for such squabbles to happen. It entertains the peasants.
You are missing the real reason. There is a bi-partisan corruption train in Washington, which is why all (correctly voting) members of Congress become multi-millionaires. Bush-Obama-Clinton-Biden could be trusted (compromised) not to interfere with or expose the process. Trump was and still is a wild card.
Looking at the latest and very rapid about face by House Speaker Mike Johnson, we can assume that some combination of bribery and extortion was used to bring him in line.
As for policy, Cabinet presents positions/options to the President within areas of his responsibility. It is child's play to manipulate these so that the right path is eventually chosen.
I believe the real reason the deep state turned on Trump as relentless as it did was because they did not want a precedent set. The precedent of someone not chosen and anointed by them to run for president and get elected. Keep in mind, the coordinated persecution of Trump started immediately, and before it was known what he would actually do once elected. We know what a candidate says while running for election is no measuring stick to what he will actually do. So what he said during his campaigns can't be the real reason. Every candidate running for president, other than Perot, whose candidacy was quickly destroyed by the media, was supported by a part of the elite. Who a particular part of the elite favors can be determined by the part of the media each controls. But, in 2016, the deep state was united behind Hillary. They were outraged by someone running and getting elected against their combined will. The fear was it would encourage others with enough money to challenge them in the future. This also explains that Trump's attempt to show that he was a team player by surrounding himself with swamp creatures did not matter.
It doesn't matter who the President is the direction of war "business" can't be changed; only complete bankruptcy and dissolution remain. Russia and China are successfully running mixed economies with decent governance structures. As the combined west has reached a terminal event from oligarchy-> kakistocracy it's last drinks and bug out or bail out.
The west theoretically can print infinite debt and still have a functioning economy without manufacturing a single thing. Whether that's possible in reality is doubtful because they tried it for 20 years and everything almost crashed (again) in 2019. Thankfully 19 Trillion COVID stimulus dollars fixed the ruined banking system, and they're almost ready to try again.
However if they start trouble with China, I wonder how long the western ruling elite and oligarchs can do without their Chinese made toys?
The garden gnome Yellen is a moron; asking for favours and then making threats out of each side of her mouth. China has taken note and been making arrangements since 2014 for disconnecting from the "west". The western kakistocracy can't even build a chip plant without grifting so there's no chance of re-industricalising no matter how many stink tank white papers say otherwise. And they think they control resources; let's see how that' going to work out for them in Africa. Good luck Australia cutting China off from iron ore; no iPhones for you, and empty Bunnings and JB.
Sounds like a 'loyalty twinge' prevented his hanging Mike Johnson out to dry
Still, it's reminiscent of his haranguing the populace unendingly about building the wall...but then putting Obamacare in the crosshairs as soon as he got elected--?!!?
Absolutely. Those who believe he will have no idea of geo-politics. If 'the west' (aka the USA) is beaten in Ukraine it will be the biggest blow it has ever received in its entire history. Sanctions will have failed and then the ultimate weapon - industrial war - will have failed. The next step is the retreat of empire a the natives begin to stick two fingers up. And here Trump is REALLY dangerous - mainly because he has no idea at all and is probably clinically insane.
Trump is a loud-mouthed cartoon character. Everything he mouths is self-referential, narcissism on steroids. A rich boy on the Post's society pages, likely never read a book. Probably couldn't locate Europe on a map. His "draining the swamp" included elevating the neo-con whack jobs, Bolton and Pompeo. His latest falling in line with the Uke and Zionist projects shows he's a good little poodle, owned by the MIC that Ike warned us about. I think the final fall of the Empire of Lies will be a Weimer Republic like event where it takes a wheelbarrow full of fiat paper to buy a 6-pak of Duff beer at the market. I'm appalled with how brainwashed my peers are re the Uke biz. Totally intellectually compromised, almost to the last one. It is depressing beyond words, yet...here we are. And, lest we forget...FJB our genocider in chief. Glad I'm 72 y/o and almost done with this shit show. Sorry kids and grandkids.
He won't, but I believe what he'll do is something that the Biden admin refuses to do, which is push for a peace settlement.
Most Americans want to help Ukraine, but most Americans don't understand the full dollar cost or the escalatory activities of the Biden admin and all the neocon/neoliberal foreign policy advisors who are fuming mad that Ukraine is currently losing.
Well, let's just say both sides of the aisle are hoping for post-Beer Hall Putsch Trump. Looking into the history of it the parallels seem intentional.
Slight correction: the Leopard 2 variant that the Russians captured was a Leopard 2A6, which is far more significant as the Leopard 2A6 acts as the basis of the Germans' latest and best Leopard 2A7 and upcoming Leopard 2A8, meaning that all of Germany's best tanks (and by extension all of NATO's best tanks as the Leopard 2 was the most capable of all the NATO tank designs as proven both by its performance in Ukraine and by its greater success at winning export contracts) has been compromised. You can tell that this is a Leopard 2A6 and not a Leopard 2A5 by the extremely long cannon that is 55 calibers long (1 caliber is equal to the width of the barrel, meaning that the Leopard 2A6's L55 cannon is 120*55mm long) vs. the shorter 44 calibers long barrel of the Leopard 2A5, and by the fact that no baseline Leopard 2A5s have been sent to Ukraine. The Swedish Strv-122 was sent to Ukraine, and the Strv-122 is a Swedish up-armored version of the Leopard 2A5 that was developed at more or less the same time, which is why the Leopard 2A5 and Strv-122 are visually almost identical.
This is important to point out as this proves that the Russians didn't just capture some obsolete museum piece that NATO sent to be scrapped for free, but instead the most capable tank in NATO's arsenal with all the best and most modern shells, armor, cannon, and fire control system, which means that Russia has effectively checkmated all of NATO's tank forces with this capture.
Barrel integrity is compromised by unplanned holes in it. You can't really patch it, to my knowledge, because it can potentially blow out at some point in the future since the patch becomes the weakest part of the barrel.
If there is a hole through the cannon itself, repairing it to functional condition would be impossible, as cannon barrels need to be roughly monolithic pieces of metal with built-in tension meant to counter the stresses of firing a shell, which a simple patch is simply not up for. Also, as the L55 is a smoothbore cannon, it's very important that the inside be as perfectly cylindrical and smooth as possible, which would be hard to do when patching the barrel.
That being said, the barrel itself does not look damaged to me. When the camera is pointed down the barrel from the breach during the interior tour video, you cannot see any holes except for the expected barrel hole, but then again, this could just be due to the quality of the video. What's more telling is that the only apparent damage to the barrel is a few holes in the thermal sleeve, and the thermal sleeve is a thin layer of metal wrapped around the barrel in order to prevent it from warping due to asymmetric heating/cooling from sunlight or rainfall, which greatly improves accuracy. The mechanic said that the barrel was disabled by a few hits from FPV drones, but I highly doubt this is the case, as FPV drone hits even with rather tiny warheads would blow off entire portions of the thermal sleeve instead of just punching a few holes into it.
What I think actually hit the barrel was a Ukrainian Bradley that was spraying this Leopard 2A6 down with its autocannon in a desperate bid to scuttle it during the final days of the battle of Avdeevka, and autocannon impacts would only punch tiny holes in the thermal sleeve which is exactly the kind of damage we see on the barrel. The Bradley does have access to an armor piercing shell that's capable of perforating all the way through the L55's entire barrel assembly, so if one of those hit at a favorable angle, it would penetrate or nearly penetrate enough to render the barrel too structurally unsound to be usable, but it does not look like that happened.
My main concern with this Leopard 2A6's cannon is what kind of damage the heat from the fire did to the recoil springs and breach assembly, as exposure to high heat can change the properties of metals and alloys for better or worse, so I think it would be safer and wiser for the Russians to just use this particular cannon as a template with which to make replicas which they'll use to conduct actual tests of capability.
Could you suggest titles of good technical books on the mechanical engineering (all structural, metallurgic, ballistic, powertrain aspects) of a modern tank?
While I don't like the idea of adding to the toll on either side, the Chihuahuas yapping about how they'll slaughter Russians on the field should be given every chance to live their dream.
I cant help but laugh at how Europe's leaders are invoking democracy to remilitarise (which they cannot do now as they've deindustrialised, and won't be able to do for decades even if they get rid of their global warming scam).
Let's get one thing straight - Europe is not democratic. Don't believe me? Just take the current members of the EU and UK. If you look closely at how the 29 current leaders of the EU and UK came to be in their positions, you would be shocked at how few of them have been directly elected by the people.
Take Michel & Von der Leyen. They were both chosen by the 'European Parliament', one of the most corrupt groups of people on the planet.
Of the remaining 27 'leaders', there are only 4 leaders you could say are legitimate popular election winners with popular mandates -.Macron (France), Fico (Slovak Republic), Orban (Hungary) and Fredricksen (Denmark).
The other 23 'leaders' have either been slotted in as caretakers (eg Rutte (Netherlands), are unelected and have power via their own parties (eg Kallas (Estonia, Scholz (Germany), or are in power by the skins of their teeth via fragile alliances with rival political blocks (eg Tusk (Poland).
In the UK, Sunak has no popular mandate. Neither did the idiot Liz Truss, before him.
More than a few of the 29 are deeply corrupt, as well. It makes sense that except for 2 (Orban and Fico), these illegitimate 'leaders' would coddle up to a corrupt, drug addicted psychopath dictator like Zelensky.
And yet they have the gall to use 'democracy' to justify remilitarisation, putting millions of men, women & young people at risk of death or injury, without exposing themselves to any risk at all.
Quite frankly, it's a disgusting spectacle and with the exception of Fico and Orban, I hope that the fall from grace of the others is not just very public, but also spectacular & humiliating.
He was the prototype for the breed: appears out of nowhere - check; no real achievements in life - check; no real personality - check; WEF stooge - check; MSM lockstep behind him - check. After came Trudeau, Macron, Ardern, Sunak, Van der Leyen....
Yes, i wonder who might disagree with your assertion: “Europe is not democratic”. And neither is the USA. However, the question might be what ‘Democratic’ stands for. One thing really puzzles me is the idea of demos as being a backbone of democracy. So, when will we see the 1989 collapse of the liberal democracy? People are on the streets and …..elites ignore them.
I don't have warm fuzzies about the use of US security forces against the population. It'll be 1917 all over. The Tsar tried that crap, and the next day his regiments were going over to the other side. I've had this conversation with soldiers in theater - officers - who lived in utter fear of being told to give that order, with the full expectation that their own deaths would follow shortly thereafter.
The thing is that sometime during the turn of the century, or in late 20th century, "democracy" started to be used as a synonim for "western way of life".
'Democracy' is the hypnotist's power word. It's what starts the trance.
Nothing is more important than the buzzword itself, protecting it, fortifying it [recall Molly Ball's 'TIME' magazine article from February 2021.]
The buzzword is part of an ideological mind-set that holds voters hostage, a type of language which delineates insiders from outsiders & exacerbates the uncertainty surrounding the electoral process. 'Our democracy' does not really mean democracy.
Note: neither the Constitution nor the Bill of Rights use the word 'democracy.' Neither did the Declaration of Independence
Not only that, but all of those leaders (including Macron) are polling well beneath 50% approval rating. It's only the ones who aren't rabidly anti-Russian like Orban and Fico who have genuinely popular support.
You may well be correct. My point was more to include Macron as one of only 4 leaders of 30 (29 in EU and Sunak / UK) who can say they were popularly elected by their populations.
The other 25 (26 including Sunak) can't even say that, and of that 25 there are at least 15 if not more who weren't elected at all by the population, which is quite incredible when you think about it.
Macron only got 21 % of people in age to vote and 'inscrits', aka registred(you need to register in France to be able to vote + your ID Card the day of the vote). When you read in msm 'Macron won 'majority' against fake opposition le pen' it is not true the 65/35 % yes but only from he one who went to vote and abstention was very high + 12 % who did not have time to register. Reality was Macron +- 21 % of French people above 18 years of age and MLP in the 14 or so. Though he did not have any majority at all, but French electoral system is stupid but on purpose, since De Gaulle you don't really need a second turn(except for Mitterand), le pen or a cow or a monkey makes no difference.
Just present your opponent as 'fascist', 'nazi' and now 'putinist' and it is ok.
OK. Like I said I wasn't rely talking about the recent French election more contrasting that only 3-4 EU Member States can point to the fact that an election happened at all!
Exactly, and the Greeks coined the term - kakistocracy; rule by the worst. Yes, the west is ruled to benefit of an oligarchy but it has completely degenerated - just to be post-modern.
When the water is turbid and dirty the scum will always rise to the top. Rome learned nothing from the Greek example; I guess an early version of "exceptionalism". Each successive western empire went the same way as the unrestrained money power killed its host.
The religion of Global Warming has torn the heart from western manufacturing and replaced it with a low carbon footprint debt and services economy, where everyone uses debt to pay each other for haircuts and massages.
I watched some clips from the latest "church of climate" service and was bemused that they literally get children to tell them how to do things. These children certainly cannot understand how economies and sovereign nations need to operate to improve their people and economies, and protect their sovereignty.
It's interesting how many are missing the reason why the West can't catch up to Russia.
Firstly, to reindustrialise the West would need to abandon the 'net zero' dream, and would then need to return to a massive carbon / fossil fuelled based recovery. Bye bye climate change, sayonara global warming.
Second, the entire population would be required to return to massive scale manufacturing, with all the brightest kids channeled into STEM and in particular, maths, advanced physics and engineering.
The toxic sludge philosophies aka 'woke' that have corrupted all levels of western education would need to be purged or returned to the irrelevant backwater studies they used to be. This means that the education system at both high school and tertiary / university level would need to be radically overturned, with the academic and bureaucratic apparatus purged of all those opposed to the change (pretty much all of them).
And that's before we get to how western nations source the materials required to start massive scale weapons manufacturing, let alone mass scale manufacturing. Metals, rare earth minerals, etc, etc. Where will UK and France, say, get the materials to do it? They can't.
You can see the problem. It's easy for western nations to say 'lets remilitarlise and reindustrialise' but it's incredibly difficult for them to do so.
In fact, it's not possible. The West has lost. There is no avenue to victory in this new world.
The only solution for the West is to accept reality, put down the weapons, and to re-engage with Russia and China on peaceful terms.
I couldn't agree more! Moreover, the skills from manufacturing to getting the necessary energy supply going - coal-fired or gas fired power stations - have vanished thanks to the modern anti-white/old-male ideology.
And then there's the minor inconvenience of food supplies and food security ... funny how the farmers' protests across the EU have vanished from the discourse. I'm sure 'Teh West' will demand that Russia be forced to send food to the starving NATO masses ...
"The only solution for the West is to accept reality, put down the weapons, and to re-engage with Russia and China on peaceful terms." That's precisely what the current Western "leadership" in incapable of doing. They will all have to go in order for this to have any chance of success.
The first signs are already here. The farmers' protests caused the cancellation of quite a few crazy green laws. Of course the globalists will keep on trying, but they will fail when their ideology starts to hit ordinary people directly in the pocket.
I think that is evident now. European apparent leaders are selected, not elected. All elections are rigged not to mention the vote preparation by MSM propaganda. However, we need to look at the democratic principle in itself, because democracy is the perfect system for capitalism since votes can be bought, congressmen can be bought, and civil servants can be bought. So any political system not controlling its own currency printing, its own central bank, and enterprises and corporations, in a total or mixed way, will always be a tool of traders and financeers who can easily and cheaply own the 5.000 toppers. In the Sahel rebelious African countries a system based on the Union of the masses and the armed forces is being installed as the only possible exit to the rigged corrupt parliamentary regimes. The US had a chance for a temporary military dictatorship for the people to purge the swamp. Now its to late.
Democracy, as a practical matter, is basically an exercise in passing the buck, in avoiding responsibility. The technical term for this is a "beard". Everyone in power claims to answer to and derive their authority from someone else, going ultimately back to "the people" who themselves do not directly exercise power, and who would find it difficult to exercise as a collective action problem, even if they had the formal authority to do so.
What this means is that real power is often in the hands of unelected bureaucrats, who typically don't even want to stand for election because they don't want the voters to know what their programs are, much less to exercise any oversight. Robert Moses is the classic example here.
Even that minimal level of scrutiny is too much for some, and real power is often exercised by people not formally part of any government structure. Corporate lobbyists or Robert Kagan come to mind .
It's even worse than that, the EU is not just undemocratic, it is actively anti-democratic. Which European politicians typically go to important positions in the EU? Well, those who lose elections at home (like Verhofstadt and Michel) or who like von der Leyen, turned out to be too incompetent and corrupt to keep on as a minister. So it's the LOSERS of elections and the demonstrably incompetent (who'd never get elected if they had to run for anything) who end up in positions of power in the EU (and in other supra-national institutions like NATO, IMF, etc).
As always, an exceptional piece. A couple of comments. Relative to domestic politics, apart from. saving Biden, which I believe is all but impossible, the other reason it is critical to keep Ukraine going till after the election is to blame Trump. The deep state likely knows Joe is a lost cause. They need to cut Trump off at the knees. Defeat is a big knife to stick in. They'd much rather weaken him and make him play ball than to destroy him. As for Ukie morale, no matter if they're believers or not, it is very difficult to keep an effective combat unit going with crappy unit level leadership. With quality unit level leadership a unit can continue to function in absolutely appalling conditions. It can be losing, freezing, starving, almost out of ammo, and the senior leadership can be idiots--and it will continue to function. All it takes is the first 3 or 4 levels. If platoon, company and battalion leadership is good, it will keep going. Take that away--and from what we've heard of Ukraine it's almost non-existent--and forget about it. Believe that's primarily why they've got a huge desertion rate. Finally, do a Grant. Stretch that line. Don't waste all those new guys hammering at the middle. Think Petersburg. The Crater didn't work, extending the lines 30 miles did. And when it finally cracks--in this case on the northern flank--everything comes tumbling down. That would be my bet on what they're up to. And by the way, by-pass Kharkov. Go round and surround and keep going. When the dust settles come back and pluck the apple from the tree.
Russia cannot convincingly push a strong offensive across the length of the front in Donbas as it is now, what does make you think that extending the front hundreds of kilometres to less relevant targets would make the AFU crumbling down?
Thinning of Russian lines to support new direction. AFU extensively mined the Sumy and Kharkov border. Much easier to defend (mines, drones, trenches, satellite surveillance) than to attack in the current war paradigm. Offensive would fizzle out and we'd have a lot of pictures of dozens of burning tanks like it was when Russians tried to cross the Donets river in Spring or Summer 2022. Don't realy know what the offensive would achieve as the collapse of the AFU at this point seems very far-fetched since they only need to sit tight and at most counterattack locally to slow down a Russian advance which has been at best only incremental so far
The AFU will end up manning a lot of positions with functionally useless conscripts if the lines are stretched. That's where the lines will just start breaking.
Well, Russia pretty much wiped French/US presence in Africa with one African Corps (ex-Wagner). All you need to have is genuine support from population. Hint - US doesn't have genuine support in Ukraine - half of population are simply terrorized into submission by current coup government.
Good point here: "half of population [ in Ukraine ] simply terrorized into submission by current coup government"
I've been wondering about what seems the complacency on the part of Ukrainian citizens @ the grassroots level--their lack of agency, their willingness to submit to the annihilation of their country/culture
Once Samantha Power shows up, say your prayers.
She has been working Ukraine for a decade
In the U.S. in 1969-1970 students on college campuses began protesting the Vietnam War, this after 60,000 KIA & 150,000 WIA
If Ukraine has suffered 500,000 casualties [ both KIA & WIA ] that would be a hard-to-ignore number for the population
In other words, the people of Ukraine know that this has been a grievous disaster--and yet they don't come out? No protests?
They're "simply terrorized" therefore unable to take action--?
Fearful of being duct-taped to a lamp post in the town square
That's a question that has bugged me too. I live in one of the most conformist nations on Earth, yet the Ukies make us look like Hamas. Maybe the gutsy ones just voted with their feet and left.
Its very local thing. Ukrainians prefer to live in "mriya" ("fantasy") not in harsh reality. This fantasy promise them membership in EU - wich means rich easy life, total happiness. Its almost religious thing. So some people really are afraid of SBU and shit but they do share this dream of better life beyond mortal suffering of war. So they just suffer. Of cource when reality bites they come to their senses, but any change takes time.
By-passing Kharkov would be the smart move. If they control all ingress and egress routes, they don't need to burn through reserves forcing their way block by block. Same with Kiev, if they get that far before Ukies sue for peace. Just crater the runways of the airports and surround the city. Allow a humanitarian corridor for women and children and then just wait.
That appears to be the strategy, as Simplicius has stated. Pressure along most of the line until things crack. The Russians still have the patience gene. They can wait this out.
awesome - at least the part I could understand - I was thinking about Prigozhin very much and Putin, yesterdday...I guess this Russelll Bentley tragedy has reawakened that shock...but I was thinking that the surprising reaction ( to me ) of Putin - so angry about that basically armed rebellion that Prigozhin was threatening and carrying out towards Moscow - was when Prigozhin ' crossed the line ' Putin allows the mafiosos in Russia to carry on business but the deal is that they NEVER interfer with the government and the running of the country. That's when Prigozhin crossed that line of no return And so then, when Prigozhin boarded that airline IN MOSCOW with his two top senior guys - that was almost like a dare, or a deal offered Putin - of a sort of trust. But Putin didn't take it. The line had been crossed - that point of no return. And the plane got shot down by the RF That's what I think -
And I agree that Shoigu will never be busted for corruption. I think Putin trusts him.
So it seems that RT and Sputnik have announced his death, but don't provide any details or say how they know.
And so we really know nothing.
Just like the scene in the movie Goodfellas, in which Jimmy calls on the phone to find out how the ceremony in which Tommy was supposed to become a "Made Man" went, and the old Mafia guy on the other end of the line tells him: "Uh, he's gone and that's it."
Many popular leaders (too popular)of dpr and lpr have been killed not by ukros...orders came from Moscow sometime eventhough it is hard to prove 100 %. I'm not a fan of Strelkov at all but the same happened to him but he survived, Russia lost Slaviansk (burisma capital). Remember Mariupol, dpr + Ru 'help' was entering the suburbs of the city when order from Moscow came to retreat because collusion and pressure between ukies and ru oligarchs. It is always about money, war is a racket, a class war.
I know a little about what you are saying - I have been following the Ukraine war since the beginning and watched all those charismatic leaders get killed one after another - but I was not aware that the RF had anything to do with it.
I can't see any usefulness in opening a new N (why not C ?) front I am afraid
Maybe, the only use of such an offensive would be to attack the Kupiansk sector of the front from the North. Instead, opening a new Kharkov or Sumy line seems to me a squandering of resources for meagre gains (protection of Belgorod).
If the offensive really has to come, wouldn't it make more sense to advance North along the Dnepr to Zaporizhzhia city and Dnipropetrobsk? Just saying, Russians troops would have one flank covered by the river, plus occupying those cities would shrink supply lines to Ukrainian Donbas front to roads and bridges to the North of Dnipropetrovsk.
But I don't think anything like that will happen, just upping up the tempo on the current Donbas lines would be the best course of action in my opinion.
The Russian army will have to attack Kharkov from Russia over difficult terrain along several valleys. The World War II battles for Kharkov showed how difficult it was to carry out offensives there. At the moment, for a successful offensive in this direction, the Russians will have to carry out additional mobilization. Kharkov could be captured from the rear, coming from Donbass, but now there are no prerequisites for this. I think that there are some chances that Kharkov will be transferred to Russia after secret negotiations between Russia and the West, then Ukraine will feign defeat in this direction and withdraw its troops.
Dniepropetrovsk is slightly pro ukies as seen in all elections (it was more or less 50/50, or 60/40 between 'party of regions pro RU' and pro ukies parties), city was controlled by Kolomoisky (MH17 false flag) originated there.There is a small but very active zio jew crowd there eventhough many left when the SMO started like in Odessa. Now these jews who left to be 'protected' in Israel found a not so safe place(same for the RU jew fith column, some are even returning home).
On second thought I can see now that a Russian advance towards Zaporizhzhia and Dnepropetrovsk from the South would face great difficulties in terms of logistics and supply, given that there are only two supply routes from Russia:
- one through Crimea and the Kerch bridge, which is currently closed to military traffic I believe,
- and the other through the land corridor in the Donbass, which is not developed enough as of infrastructure, and is unsafe because too close to the frontline.
So only useful new "front" to be open would be immediately North of Kupiansk, on the other side of the Oskil river, in order to catch that Ukrainian stronghold in a pincer and then roll down the Ukrainians on both sides of that river up to Lyman.
I have no words. As always, masterful analysis. I follow several people. You are the only one I literally stop what I am doing to read anything new you produce.
In the event you read this, I have a question.
My true worry is Odessa. It is obvious to me that Russia WILL take Odessa. Their Black Sea fleet losses mandate it. And of course, to support Transnistria. And also, if you get a little further North? You have a land bridge to Hungary. And Hungary can escape the noose of the EU.
But I think the insane hubris of the Western world will lead them to put troops into Odessa if this comes close. And that is when I fear shit gets real. It is a Cuban missile crisis situation with no adults in the Western centers of power.
Russia has no mean to take Odessa, it should have been done in 2022.But smo was understaffed by 500k.Odessa is gone forever, biggest nato base is coming.
Russia probably has the means to take Odessa, and even if it doesn't it can certainly create the means. Just depends on if they think the cost is worth it. Who knows. Who is going to stop them? Europe? Do they have the means for that do they? Dealing out absolutes like you know with 100% certainty doesn't seem that wise to me.. I'm not sure why people do that, but everyone seems to always think they know best.
Because like Simplicius says, nato will see any RU troops concentration immediately and target them with missiles even if few ukros there. Logistic will be a nightmare. It will be a butchery of no name and VVP will not handle that. About nato or 'euro' troops taking Odessa of course very easy as the border is not very far and the city is still nazis controlled though they will not have to fight anybody in fact. Free entry. Except a few partisans, population is terrorized by gestapo SBU, they will not fight some will even rejoy. Nato goal is to transform Odessa in a big human shield (like they did in Mariupol) hoping RU will not dare to attack them.
Russia can take Odessa much cheaper and faster than Kharkow . Suggesting that the Russians opening a "northern front" is not making any sense . A thousand kilometers new front ? That would be doubling the current front line . There is minimal threat coming from the Kharkow direction after the Belgorod fiasco , just live them waiting in anticipation .
The only real damage coming consistently from the Odessa region . The Russians suffered most of the losses from the Odessa attacks . Why are they not focusing where the real treat coming from ? Odessa has real geopolitical value , it would greatly extend the supervision and control of the Black Sea . Why would the Russians allow NATO to grab it ? ? ? The Russians can't take Odessa , but NATO can ? The Ukrainians can't keep it so the Russians just let NATO take it ? What kind of a neighborhood that would result ? We are being blinded with minor results , hey look we take an other village that used to have thirty people living in it before the war . Are we playing real "Russian roulette" with this war ?
It stretches the front massively and Ukraine has to weaken other areas to meet this new threat. They are already undermanned everywhere. It makes the next step for Russia easier as they have the ability to concentrate to attack and Ukraine has no idea as to where this attack will be, but must defend a vastly wider front but with the same number of troops.
Wrong ! The western team brought this conflict upon Russia to deny them operational space .
Forget about Ukraina , that is just an excuse for all the sanctions and demonization of Russia . Because of that threat , Sweden and Finland joined NATO . Without the instigated conflict in Ukraina that wouldn't have been possible . This way NATO can block Russia on the northwest in the Baltic area . What if NATO gain foothold in Odessa , and the western Black sea . They can block them or sanction them to ever cross that area via airways or waterways . The Russians only can overcome that with committing aggression against NATO , but that is third world war because of Russia . The Pacific area is already secured by the US and Japan . Only the soft underbelly left , but Armenia already a player and they are working on Georgia . Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan both are potential backstabbers if they are payed well. Than the real sanction comes , nothing in and nothing out of Russia , let them starve . Than what ? They are blockaded , strategic defeat if they make any move they are the aggressors and the West has the right to defend the "allies" About tens of millions of drones from all direction to saturate all air defenses and than what Chris Keating ? The globalist speculators are winning and we will be "subjects" Are you with them ? As soon as they win , same day they will start fighting amongst themselves because that is what make them live for .
Agree. If Odessa remains in a future Ukraine state it will be a big NATO-base and a constant threat to Russia (Crimea and Fleet). But I am not so sure that Russia will take that area. Even in 2022 there was innumerable obstacles to overcome due to the westward advancement. You have to take Odessa from the North (or by a combined Sea/Air operation. Look at a map, it is simply impossible to move from Cherson. You have 4-5 riverdeltas to bypass. Forget Odessa for the moment. It is far more important for the Russians to open a Northern front and encircle the Ukrainian forces in Donbass (Kramatorsk, Isjum, Charkov) with a second front from Zaporizja. Reaching Dniepr will collapse the whole Ukrainian resistance as much the German forces crumbled in 1944.
Easier is to finally decapitate(whatever the cost in civilian casualties, ukrops love to kill Russian don't they repeat ad noseum?) Forget about this fake 'brotherhood' fiction. Young ukrainians born after 1991 don't have this feeling.Once the Zelensky clique is fully destroyed the rest will collapse as no more money, no more weapons, no more orders coming from liberated Kiev...propose surrender to the one fighting.
When I lived in Ukraine (2004-2012), nationalists were seen as freaks and losers, including among young people. Zelenskii was the youth candidate in 2019.
What happened was that it was made clear to Ukrainians that the price of admission to The Club, The West, The Golden Billion, The Magical Land Where Institutions Basically Work was for them to hate their brothers and their own parents.
There are also significant natural gas deposits sitting under areas of western Donbas that are currently occupied by Ukraine. Getting that territory back has to be a critical concern, not just for filling out the claimed borders of the two Donbas republics, but for denying Ukraine valuable income for decades to come.
You have legitimate concerns but I suspect that once NATO sees this insanely effective Russian military machine working at 70% capability plus, as opposed to the present 35-45%, they may be deterred from taking any reckless actions.
Odessa will be taken, with a landbridge established to take in Transnistria. Count on it.
I'll keep saying it. Take Odesa and the war ends. Use "overwhelming force" if necessary. If the city has to be destroyed, then it can be rebuilt, but the war will end.
200k are needed knowing that going to Odessa will mean 50 % losses for Russia, once there less problem as Odessa is probably the most Russian city in 404 even more than Kharkov.
Russia has to take Odessa and probably will. However, you fears are justified. Odessa might be the hill that the crazed neocons decide to die on. Hopefully, by the time the Russians get near there, the whole game will be over bar the shouting.
Remember China former MOD was fired with no reason given..a year ago. VVP will go to Beijing soon (after inauguration 7th May and the 9th of May Parade). Like he did before starting the smo expecting XI full support for the next phase of the war. Once again Russia must cease immediatly to let all red lines to be crossed including if very bad things happen in Crimea, ZNPP or in Russia deep (including strike on Moscow, Petersburg or even ,never know with budanov psychopath, on 9th may parade or on top kremlin people or another Crocus 2.0 but far worst. NATO territory must feel the pain at least once (no need to nuke anything at first) but big losses in military then energy then civilian, US bases, infrastructures..). I garantee you that article 5 is a joke, they will stop to double down and call (the US mainly) VVP to negociate even a losing exit. These people(politicos in election campaign), jornos, think tankers on their seats are just a bunch of total cowards far more afraid to lose their money, confort, their life, privileges....stocks will collapse in hours (- 50 %), gold will reach 4.000 usd, brent-wtI 150 or even more, it will calm them down in minutes.
There is a small risk they comit collective suicide but my evaluation is at 10 % no more. Euro foot, olympics, holidays, potus elections are coming soon...this the right time for Russia to strike or counter srike after a big bad event, there is a last window till july +- otherwise Nato will enter 404, and once there they will stay for years or forever, war will be lost for Russia, brics will desintegrate fast, China will stop his relative support, which will in fact later will mean the end of Russia after a few years or even before. RU goal now + China must be not only to end of zelensky junta but end of nato and EU as it works now. A coup d'état is forseen (Draghi from GS will replace VDleyen) during sept oct in the EU to create a 'federal Europe' as the US request of course it means cancell any sovereignty to any country(no more France or Germany etc... just in name 'region France').This project is highly unpopular in Western EU but not in Eastern Europe (poor countries). Don't forget that the real reason behind WWIII is the bankruptcy of the western financial system under hundreds of trillions of debts, quadrillions of derivatives since 2008 (Lehman) nobody cares abour Ukraine (front north) or Gaza (front south) really it is all about destroying China economy, EU economy to give some time more for the US to survive a bit longer. Destroy the BRICS, steal all RU assets(just started yesterday), take over Crimea which means no more RU in Syria as consequence no more access to hot waters), then greater zio israel project can go on, reinstate total dolarization, having Europe as slave for the US oligarchy with forever non competitive economy(energy too expensive), abolish democracy, elections in summary full fascism, Mussolini will look like a joke compared to the new EU NATO 'REICH'.
Greater israhell will take over 5 countries or even move to Israel 2.0 aka Ukraine. Which is neocons and evangelists goal since day one, look how fake opposition Trump capitulate for the 61 B package. RU must strike nato only chance to win, as westerners believe RU is weak(after 2 years not even able to retake Donbass), allowing all red lines to be crossed is just invitation to double down ''no risk they never retaliate', nukes? They lie they or don't have them or they don't work or VVP is so idiot and naive/afraid' the ''guy'' will never dare..etc etc..
They really believe this bs, they never understood the dual concept of demilitarization + denazification, they only think in terms of territories and carpet bombing.
Up to Russia to finally start to be serious, show and use force or disappear.
Pretty sure the Russians plan for the multitude of contingencies and possibilities, they are not idiots. I'm not sure where this perspective comes from that they aren't serious and they need to act like a westerner with emotional outbursts and erratic actions and immediate shows of force. Pretty sure the Russians know how to fight wars, they go about it methodically and logically in their own way. Not saying they are perfect but what bar are they being compared against? The West? Seriously? The West are good at forming a gang and bullying weak nations but that's about it these days. Isnt it up to westerners to finally get serious, vote out or remove their corrupt elites so Russia doesnt have to fight for the feedom of the world from the hegemonic power? Why does Russia have to fix it, it's the Western populations that have let this happen. There's no one else to blame. All i hear from westerners is Russia has to do this or Russia has to do that... But sounds like you know best, even without all the information required to make the decisions, you are stating empathetically that you know best and what has to be done... I don't understand this perspective....
On the heels of the U.S. sending a splash of cash to Taiwan 'for security,' the Sec of State shows up in Shanghai, ready to deliver an ultimatum to Wang Yi about China's shipping dual use tech components to Russia: you may not be interested in sanctions but sanctions are interested in you.
Premier Xi sees this--sees how this played out w/ Russia: once a defensive alliance like NATO, coaxed along by the U.S., fixes an adversary in its crosshairs, nothing short of abject submission will bring it to change tack. If the adversary resists the initial provocation, a defensive alliance like NATO, coaxed along by the U.S., will keep escalating w/ more & more provocations until it proves politically untenable for the targeted adversary to resist passively. Short of committing national suicide, the targeted adversary cannot opt for inaction.
Before you know it the adversary embarks upon a full-scale unprovoked war of aggression--!!
That was 24 February 2022 jacked.
VVP's trip to Beijing after Victory Day will help the two heads of state work on the deets
You nailed it! The US thinks they can do what the Brits did. Create chaos abroad and hide away on their island. If they are going down they will try to take everyone with them. Unfortunately for them they can easily be targeted in so many ways. Globalisation blowback, buckle up.
Although you aggravate all the signs on the wall into a deep dark abyss one can see the broad strokes leading to collaps of the democratic West with a 4th Reich emerging where Russia will fight for their life against. I agree, time is wasted on small gains in Donbass. US/NATO is moving the narrative slowly to a inevitable WW3 to stop the ”madmans in Kreml”. No one asked people int the west if they wanted war with Russia so they cant move too fast. Just incremental. Russia has a window of opportunity this summer or until US/NATO troops enter Ukraine. They should deliver a decisive blow but I doubt they can. Therefore I suggest decapitating Ukrainian leadership and a simultaneus two-three front offensiv. Whenever US/NATO troops and resources enter Ukraine the war will be over and both sides will come to a solution where Ukraine is split up to whatever gains Russia has made uptil then. It could take months or years but the outcome will be the same.
Call me and asshole and wish me testicular cancer s I can fucking die in piece and don't have to read these long articles or listen to "EXPERTS!" including this one on debunking expectations on hypersonic missile which even the governments in the west DO NOT KNOW how it works! With that out of my system..why doesn't Mr Putin STOP the sale of ALL..I MEAN ALL comodities to the hole fucking world? YES...China and all the poor nation in the world will suffer and YES the incredible groth of the Russian economy will crash...but isn't better to suffer just a little bit now (god forbide the Russin will not be able for a while to go into the supermarkets and show the world that they can still by coca cola made in poland!) and all the crazy christial westners anti gay maniacs can't not go live in Russia! than have the whle word going into nucler meltdown burger mode because of a bunch of spoiled ASSES think they can win a nuclear war? do you understand that all the people in power in the west have grown up with the JEW superman AND spiderman stories?They fucking believe that elephants can fly! WAKE THE FUCK UP PEOPLE! PS YES..I AM ANTI SEMITE!
It is going to be funny when you people are starving to death and the only thing you will hear when you are crying is NO HABLE..anglo saxon piece of shit! and I am so happy I never set foot on one of your school for the retard....I haven't seen any anglo saxons at MIT! Lots of yellow china man right white boy!
guau, hombre, ¡estás por todos lados! Tu inglés es deficiente. Soy uno de los estadounidenses blancos a los que denigras en tu publicación anterior. Puedo asegurarles que nos irá muy bien aquí con nuestros compatriotas hispanos. Por si no lo sabías, los hispanoamericanos en mi país también odian a los ilegales. ¡Pon eso en tu pipa y fúmalo! ¡JA!
So funny that the only thing you've got out of my first comment was to mantion that my english is not perfect ..a anglo saxon way (coward) to call me illiterate! The golden billion HIPOCRASIA..Vai chupar muito pau the homan aqui no sul global..Understand me muchacho!!!hahahahaha
Ukies are in big trouble. Their lack of reserves is showing and will worsen allowing Russians to advance more across open land than seen previously. New tactics and modified armor are making this possible now and its success will spread to other sectors of the front. The key is to get the Ukies reeling backwards unable to right themselves in an advantageous defensive position. The one weapon Ukies have that slow down Russians is the FPV drone which now operate as artillery, close air support and infantry of a sort. The other impediment is the mine, but if you're reeling backwards there's no time to properly mine your retreat and artillery is too sparse to help. In about five weeks it will be June and the ground will be dry.
Agree. Russia must keep up a relentless push forward. The more speed, the better. They did it on the Germans and have all the knowledge from those campaigns regarding vectors of thrust, strategic areas and so forth. Russia can win all battles in this static war but loose the war…so better get moving!
Because it's mostly a mind game and dissociating themselves with "NATO" as much as possible would work towards alleviating Russia/NATO tensions because it would act as a sort of indirect/implied message to Russia that "we come not as NATO but as something else". This would be meant to somewhat allay Russia's fears and keep it from treating the encroachment with the standard raised-hackles existential reaction programmed into Russia in the face of a true NATO conflict.
When is NATO not NATO--?
When it's something else.
Cue the Mad Hatter verbiage
.
It was pretty obvious from the beginning, and even more so now, that aside from the nazi fanatics represented by Azov and the its ilk, Ukrainians don't want this war and are not willing to die for NATO.
Imagine if you will , a double barrel event. The collaspe of Ukraine closely followed by the collaspe of Israel (rising domestic opposition in USA, internal conflict, some form of cival strife, Hizb give the final kick in balls -could happen) , Let us pray.
Ukraine yes, Israel no… Nukes…
Same thing was said about Cuito Cuanavale. White South Africa gave up thier nukes. Amazing things happen. We get frozen in the now but the list of impossibles is long: Pol Pot on trial, Saddam and Gaddafi lynched , East Timor , Latin American Generals on trial, end of Suharto, Vietnam and on and on and on. These things were SOLID in thier day. NO CHANGE POSSIBLE....and yet the wheel turned......Israel had a lot of internal problems prior to current events and current events are just gonna make 'em worse. Plus all the outside problems it faces. Maybe it will pull through but I thinks history is against it. Let the blood flow!!!!
Samson option then for all of US?
The 20 million plus illegials point to that as a distinct possibility. I keep having flashes of Mao's red book....
There were already 20+ million illegals here before the coup d’état. 10-15 million more since then.🤬
You're right, we are somewhere south of 40 million.
Now the already here illegals for the most part have been here for some time and were not receiving the insane benefits the new arrivals are. And I don't know that they are being allowed to access those benefits.
As the jobs, housing, they have depended upon will now be under real pressure, they may view the new illegials as more of a threat to themselves than we do.
“…they may view the new illegials as more of a threat to themselves…” May? They hate them for the reasons you suggest and more. The Mexicans hate the Venezuelans. A 99% “hispanic”, i.e. actually 99% of those being Mexican, “sanctuary” town bordering Chicago, turned away a column of buses bringing in the invaders, threatening to fine the driver $30,000, bus companies thousands and each invader another fine of, I think another thousand dollars.
"they may view the new illegials as more of a threat to themselves than we do." I believe this is called 'horizontal violence' in the academic literature...
I think they are very motivated to die for EU/USA.
They have been doing that for two years without large scale mutinies.
They have an ever-increasing number of desertions in recent times and several situations where entire units refused to fight. But far more than that, literally millions of young men and women have fled the country refusing to join the military and trying to avoid extradition from their current countries of residence in order to avoid mobilisation.
The Ukronazis are the mutineers, the loyalists are the dissidents who refused to accept the US-Ukronazi putsch and have been fighting them ever since. The possibility of mutiny always exists but military forces are usually well prepared to prevent them. Individuals have to vote with their feet (while they still have them) which might explain the 100,000 deserters.
I do not understand them willing to die for that Jew zelensky (inland blinken kagan etc.)
They have had 10 years of heavy indoctrination, you can capture a lot of people's "hearts and minds" in 10 years.
Replace ‘Nazi’ with Jew and NATO with nigger and Tranny Org and it makes more sense.
Nobody will ask them.
ukrainians have long held a reputation as being the dumbest people ever, and i think now they have figured it out.
azov are cowards who cant do anything but march around in leather hot pants at torch light parades and hide as close to the polish border as possible
Look at USSR era maps showing iodine deficiency in Ukraine's soils. Note that Galicia is kind of fucked in this regard?
Then look at the effects on human intelligence of growing up chronically short of iodine in one's diet.
Consider that post 1991, nobody in the Ukrainian kleptocracy was wasting any money on iodizing table salt (as was done under the USSR) when cheaply mined local rock salt could be procured locally and sold at full price with no additional expenses for adding a bit of iodine and no one noticing that minor ommision?
Actually lack of Iodine produces goiters and malformed children. It happened in many farming areas in Switzerland 18th c
Yes, those iodine deficiency related issues are well known. See link for various studies showing measurable neurological efects (even where physical abnormalities are not seen).
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7416250/#:~:text=Severe%20iodine%20deficiency%20may%20lead,development%20is%20always%20a%20component.
Then, look at this map of Ukraine:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://abstracts.eurospe.org/hrp/0092/eposters/hrp0092p2-299_eposter.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi7kbreqeCFAxVV4MkDHfJ3CnAQFnoECB8QBg&usg=AOvVaw1f_MzxK8VUG_Uad10YZ4bx
I don't need to read this. I think it was A Swiss Doctor working on his own who discovered these abnormalities. Many women had to bring up retarded kids and it was difficult for the women to fight their husbands.
Many women on the advice of 'so-called' witches put salt in the food for their families.
It's an open secret know.
One of the other things of note: Mining communities (lithium) in the USA.
Look it up it's very enlightening.
@JennyStokes
That sounds quite bizarre to me. Please explain WTF "witches" and "salt" signify?
I've tried to patiently explain that Russia isn't fighting much of an insurgency in the Donbas and Crimea because the people who live there for the most part were either pro-Russian or neutral. I've also explained that if those regions had a U.N.-administered vote for leaving Ukraine, it would be an overwhelming yes, which is why the U.S. and EU has not demanded that there be any democracy in the Donbas. They prefer to claim the Crimean election and other referendums in Donbas were rigged elections. (Fairly ironic, given the irregularities of the 2020 U.S. presidential election)
“Irregularities”? 🤡 An organized coup d’état. 🤬
Azov and co did want this war, but ran away when it came to actually fighting it. As for NATO and there Americans, they’ve been making excuses since day 1.
Iven got to say it that respect is due to the actual Ukrainian soldiers like the 47th, but I guess they’re pretty much similar people fighting each other entirely because of NATO!
This whole hunting for the recruits on the streets of Ukrainian cities or the western allies' bold statements about helping out with sending the "volunteers" back raises an interesting question: is a citizen free or is he a property? Free riders are of course annoying but in a society that believes in it being the sovereign and in the government being its servants the citizens would either negotiated peace or fight w/o discussion.
I think I know the answer.
My contact in a major big non nato intel services:
Estimates of military losses (04/24) - RUSSIA: 36,500 killed, 94,800 injured (including serious: 15%); UKRAINE: 445,000 killed, 455,000 injured (including serious: 67%) + 6,000 NATO mercenaries killed. Confidential cross-referenced SOURCES: FR/NATO/RUS/UKR/US.(plausible deniability)
I believe Wagner lost more than 36,500 fighters alone. Does your figure exclude Donbass losses and assorted mercs?
No such figure was ever confirmed, though it is an interesting topic, which I've delved into before. But as a quick refresher, the gist of it is this:
During the height of Bakhmut activity, Prigozhin is on record saying that: "Wagner loses 20 men on a good day, 50 men on a bad day".
Then, towards the end when he began to really clash with the MOD, he became increasingly hyperbolic, and gave one 'particularly bad' day as 93 casualties in that day (https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/prigozhins-unprecedented-meltdown)
This gives us a good baseline understanding of Wagner casualties at the peak of Bakhmut.
The problem is, the battle raged mostly for 4-5 months, from January-Feb to May, as Soledar I believe fell in January, and only then did Wagner *really* start going all in on Bakhmut.
So, if we take 4-5 months and multiply them by the average between the two 20-50 figures (35), we get 120-150 days x 35 = ~4000-5000 losses.
The fact that he named 93 casualties in one day as a particularly outrageous high point is significant because it means they rarely get such days. The reason that's important is because in order to have hit the alleged 20,000++ dead claimed in Bakhmut, Wagner would have had to suffer 120-150 days / 20,000 = ~150 dead per day on AVERAGE.
So why did Prigozhin himself claim 20k dead in Bakhmut? His claim came at a time when he was clearly exaggerating for effect to anger the Russian populace against the MOD. There were other signs of hyperbole and exaggeration at that time.
Some, however, claim there are in fact 20,000 Wagner marks on the infamous black pyramid monument, but to my knowledge this hasn't been confirmed by anyone.
Ok, but you said the whole war not just Bakhmut. But if Wagner suffered only 4000-5000k losses in Bakhmut, it's difficult to believe they suffered an additional 31k losses elsewhere to hit 36k. You see my logic?
In the end we can't know for certain, and I'm not saying my version is necessarily right, but those are just the facts and there is good reason to believe Prigozhin was widely exaggerating as other evidence I've put forth from his own mouth seems to suggest, but at the same time, it could also be true.
That puts it into perspective, though I doubt Prigozhin would have advertised higher casualy rates even if it were true. Not a good PR.
What would be your estimate of Russian losses?
Read above I actually just wrote it under original comment. Btw, see this for Prigozhin's detailed explanation of his claimed loss distribution for sake of interest: https://www.bitchute.com/video/zSIUQEYdeUyW/
I forgot to mention. That's the other reason which supports my statements about Wagner's losses. Mediazona has total ~3000 or so deaths of PMCs recorded:
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
If Wagner had 20-40k deaths, why would MediaZona record such a tiny fraction? This is another potential hole in Prigozhin's theory. Maybe they counted the inmates in Wagner under the separate 'inmates' column, which lists 9k casualties. But that's over the whole conflict. Either way it strongly clashes with Prigozhin's numbers or even higher figures claiming 36k Wagner casualties, etc.
I <3 math.
My personal estimate is that the Russian *forces* may have anywhere between 45-75k KIA casualties, with Ukraine north of 350k (with 450+ being possible).
However, a huge proportion of the KIA on Russia's side are prisoners, both from Wagner and Storm Z style battalions, as well as DPR/LPR. The actual *Russian Army* proper's proportion of losses is likely as little as 25-35k.
Mediazone actually lists the exact percentage breakdown, and between prisoners, PMC's, and 'volunteers', that alone accounts for almost 40% of all losses on the Russian side. That means only 60% of the losses would be from nominal Russian army structures. So if we apply that to a total of a notional 50-70k, that would yield 30-42k being actual Russian army losses.
Need to include DPR/LPR into Russian forces proper because it's been a year now that they are officially the 1st and 2nd Army Corps in the Russian order of battle.
Having said that, Russian casualties are probably within the range you cite, but I think 350,000 Ukro deaths are too many. That number would imply an average of 448 KIA per day over 2 years and 2 months, which at first glance seems too high of a rate
Could be, but the Russian MOD releases daily precise counts and actually it does comport with that. For instance here's one from a few days ago I posted: https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1781418348212875351
And most days it lists between 600-1200 personnel losses.
Problem is, they don't specify if that's actual KIA or total "casualties" which can be wounded as well.
Hard to say but even if it's total casualties, the fact that most days it's 800-1000 would mean minimum 300-500 of those are KIA.
Secondly, during many of the most intense battles like Bakhmut, we got very revealing numbers from Ukrainian personnel themselves, and the numbers were often shocking. For instance here's a AFU commander saying they lose 2 companies per day just in Bakhmut alone: https://www.bitchute.com/video/WFZMB0E15Yl7/
There's another video of an AFU POW admitting an entire battalion being lost in a single night, that's upwards of 1000 killed.
In the end we can't be sure, an 450 KIA does sound high but it may be plausible.
Many MIA as well (probably dead) as Zelensky dictator does not want to pay families compensation and insurances, this is why he is talking about 34k kia..which is ridiculous, just by watching videos on telegram of hundreds of cemeteries pretty full with all their flags even in Llov.
The 100,000 deserters….
They're playing for the subsidies, part of which are scaled to population, some to force size. So all the books are gonna be cooked. But despite that, someone in AFU is going to know well enough how many they sent and how many aren't there a year later. Cel phone usage data is another angle.
I further forgot that *multiple* figures in Ukraine have admitted they need 30,000 men per month just to recoup/sustain. Here's one: https://www.bitchute.com/video/m7QOkydxyWQq/
But I believe Budanov and others also admitted it, though they didn't openly state it was for "losses" but just said we need 30k per month.
30k "irrecoverable losses" (dead plus maimed) per month after ~27 months is over 800,000.
Let's just be charitable and say the 30k figure represents half KIA half maimed (irrecoverable losses who can't fight again).
That would be ~400k dead 400k irrecoverable...so it still squares with the figures.
I don't know Simp, I can't wrap my head around the extent of the slaughter.
I am sceptical though of the official numbers of AFU casualties released by the Russians...most KIAs would be from artillery, but how would the Russians know the number of victims they mete with each shot? Difficult they rely on drones hovering on enemy lines, cannot really count victims inside collapsed buildings, etc.
Russian MoD probably computes AFU deaths in a totally theoretical fashion, based on estimated density of enemy troops within the sector swept by artillery, the number of shells fired per area, and the lethality (probability of killing) for each shell type. So the estimated KIAs result is very ballpark, unreliable and prone to be inflated
If the Ukrainians count their casualties, then the Russians would what they counted.
How it works is each subunit records each kill they get and it gets passed up the chain. A drone unit reports their kills to the company, the company commander tallies all the kills reported by his platoon commanders and sends it up to battalion. The battalion tallies all his companies and sends it up to brigade...etc, etc. up to echelon level.
Russians are extremely stickler for numbers/figures as one of the chief complaints from commanders on the ground have been how meticulously the old sovok generals stick to 'outdated' systems of endless reports/journals/etc. where every single figure has to be noted down, which mires commanders in hours of work, prohibiting them--in their view--from concentrating on more important tasks.
I have a video I can find where Russian assault troops enter a trench and the commander immediately starts barking at the deputy to begin counting all AFU corpses, noting them down in the official paperwork, which the deputy begins doing on camera.
They are very anal about counting each loss.
Does that mean they're accurate? We can't be sure. But I'm simply pointing out the process of how it works. Each of the smallest units records their daily kills and feeds it up the chain, the MOD then tallies the numbers from every single brigade, corps, sector, etc., and releases the totals, which are usually 700-1000 or so.
Sounds like a method that lends itself to high margins of error.
I remain convinced that at least for artillery (that accounts for most of the kills) there is no other way to keep tabs than estimate these losses statistically
As long as it doesn’t lead to the self delusion of the US Vietnam war body count disaster.
No, Martyanov covered this many times. Russia uses what's called "объективный контроль" (objective control). Every piece of hardware must have low res camera which works all the time to register missile shots etc. Every regiment have people who are not in chain of command whos only job is to collect data from cameras, literally check corpses, count bodies from drone footage etc. Why that's important? First, purely monetary - you get paid for certain materiel kills, you getting awards based on deeds etc. Also, those numbers eventually go up by grapevine so military eggheads can alter equipment efficiency coefficients.
If you don't have objective control data - your strike did nothing, you killed nobody, nothing happened. That's why Martyanov always harps about Russian MOD data being conservative in nature
Macgregor was talking about 600k dead on Redacted couple of days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=redacted+macgregor
That pro-russian estimates for Ukrainian casualties vary so much indicates that they are at most educated guesses.
Of course they are educated guesses, but it is interesting to keep different numbers in mind. At least for me.
I agree when counting DPR LPR maybe real Wagner (not prisonners). Look at 'serious injured' far more on ukie side as medical front staff from RU is far better and faster on spot.It is 'good' for us as they will never come back to fight not maybe even at the rear for many.
We need to count them all because they're all people.
This 40% of losses from prisoners (...). Can you make a report of the way they are (or were) using this type of man? In WWII, the Germans had Division 999, but this refers only to people who were (mainly) sentenced by the Army. On the other hand, the SS had some really bad criminals in their ranks. Remember the Dirlwangers unit. The losses of both kinds of units were deadly; they were used to clear the way for real elite forces. Does the Russian Army have these Dirlwanger units? Wagner seems to have used criminals within the normal structure. How is (or was) the Russian Army (or the militas) using this pool of men?
I saw something on a Ukrainian TV channel were it had the combined KIA + MIA for Ukraine at 1,125,000. This was about 4 months ago. No idea where I saw it, but see it I did.
Plausible and oddly enough equates with my own estimate of UAF losses. I'd put RF losses higher incl LPR/DPR etc but maybe 20 to 25% of UAF losses only, with a lower ratio of permanent losses to the UAF - along with your source. And 100,000 deserters would explain a lot.
Trump will not cut off aid to Ukraine.
DJT's 'purpose' is to show us the puppeteer's wrist & therefore force us to stop believing in the puppet
We can believe in the puppet & settle in for the show as long as we don't see the puppeteer's wrist
Once we see the wrist = game over
Cognitive dissonance is a beotch
Some reports say DJT lost a third of his value leaving office compared to when he entered. Surely you didn't miss everyone trumpeting something similar around to try and humiliate him. As far as I could find only 2 presidents in America's history left office poorer than they entered and Trump is one of them.
What you said could apply to any number in the universe about any topic. Anyhows the report came from Forbes and generally looked at the value of his assets.
"Trump's fortune fell from $3.5 billion to $2.4 billion between entering office in January 2017 and departing the White House less than three months ago, according to Forbes.
Several of Trump's major properties suffered declines in value, as did his hotel management and licensing business. However, his Florida club, Mar-a-Lago, saw a considerable improvement in net value."
Feel free to post your argument that he left the White House richer than he entered as you please.
As of today [reported in Axios] DJT is sitting on $4bn as a result of his Truth Social IPO
DJT made more $$$ from Truth Social than Elon did from buying Twitter
I don't mean DJT had foreknowledge of a 'purpose,' as if he were magicking a Grand Scheme, but it happened nonetheless.
The fact of his presidency, the fact of his disruptive presence, how opposed the Interagency was to him--the Interagency's political assassination of him--the various hoaxes made it impossible to focus complacently on the puppet much at all: the puppeteer's wrist was calling out for beaucoup attention
OMG, thet anyone thinks this chosen full-cledged delusional zionist is revealing anything of usefulness is maddening. Look at his appointees, no better than Biden's, in fact many of the same. And BTW, Trump escalated our military involvement in Ukraine.
he also previously said that the war would end just the day after his election to the presidency
He has said a lot of things, but his support for war in Ukraine is now public with his endorsement of the recent 61 billion aid package.
It doesn't really matter. The business of war is vital to the economic survival of the Western Hemisphere.
Hopefully this change of mind did not happen just because Putin publicly stated he would prefer Biden win the presidential race
The business of War is Only important to Western elites. What we call the West can survive perfectly well without treating for example african countries like colonies, like in the case of French elites.
It will be even better if the West treated these countries with respect like for example China does, because it will grow their economies and will in the end benefit Western companies, economies and people.
It is only the elites that gain anything from these wars and chaos that we see now, and have been seeing for centuries.
Problem is, and is happening in real time now, the money the elites miss, will ramp up taxes and other costs for the plebs of the Western countries
That assumes the top end pays tax proportionallly or at all, investments and fake borrowing rates and write offs tend to negate or wipe all tax if even incurred and that assumes there is a tax scale that increases with earnings. One of the things Trump did was to lower tax rates for the high income earners whilst the MAGA lot cheers him on. Go figure?
A question, mishkin is poor in bahasa Indonesia is that where your Princely name arose? Am curious!
Dostojewskis The Idiot main character is Prince Myshkin, its one of my favorite novels.
Hard to say really, I am just speculating. But currently, in Germany and the US, they already ramp up taxes, sometimes they even admit it's because of the 'Russian aggression'. Yeah, inflation will also burn that up.
And will probably be a big pillar of it's bankruptcy.
The aid package is mostly to pay money to US companies and budgets. Money that was already spent. I’m guessing the Israeli aid was similar and that’s why it passed all of a sudden. But your broader point about trump is correct.
Whoever is POTUS since JFK does not matter. Even a cow or a monkey in the WH does not matter. Deep state aka COG = continuity of Govt which is MIC + AIPAC is in charge, they were the one behind 9/11 and since then they ctrl everything, not even the Pentagon. Cheney organized 9/11 with rogue CIA + mossad agents against Bush who was exfiltrated from the school(and no more potus during 7 hours).This is why VVP says he prefers Biden to Trump, need to choose between plague and cholera.
The media and the whole establishment wouldn't have treated Trump like the devil incarnated for 4 years and beyond, if the Presidency were just a ceremonial sinecure
No he was treated like that because he stood against 'them' over many issues. First among those is the Ukraine situation after Maidan 2014: if Hillary had won we would have had the Ukraine war starting 4 years earlier. Remember Trump was accused pretty heavily and without evidence of Russian collusions that with hindsight were totally bogus. Much help for organising the scandal came from the SBU. This is by no accident
Good points.
I often think that the reality show did him no favours as it left many with a view of him as a villianous boss. Before that he was mostly just a weird rich dude. We all should know by now that these reality type shows have very little in terms of actual reality. Now maybe he is and maybe he's not but I'm sure it didn't help his image/PR. That and the daily assaults on him by CNN, MNBC, and the rest.
Some say that POTUS is the leader of the free world so that would put many in a weaker position than him.
I would say something about those Abramic accords, or whatever they were, but now with Israel/Gaza - that may be dead in the water?
I think it might have taken some balls to cross over into North Korea with the Rocket Man.
I agree that the 2020 elections smells very fishy.
Cheers
"unless you consider it an achievement that he accelerated the decline of U.S. society and its standing in the world"
Conversely his doing nothing is a major achievement. No new wars, opening up of North Korea, opening up of Saudi Arabia, and no one globally really tried to start anything while Trump was in office. Compared to the constant decline of Clinton-Bush-Obama-Biden the comparatively little that happened during Trump's time until the covid stuff was a huge relief. It might even be said that everyone Trump got close to, such as the aforementioned NK/Saudis, have openly aligned themselves against the Biden Deep State USA in vengeance for the steal.
The whole "Ukraine call" furore makes perfect sense since the prior employment of Hunter Biden came out, and definitely after Feb 2022.
The US oligarchs and ruling elite (overlapping) were basically treating Ukraine like an all you can eat smorgasbord. The business with Bankman Fried as well. It all joins up.
There are different factions within the Establishment. Trump was the front man for a minor faction trying to make it's play before the End Game. They failed.
A good analogy is the NFL. Those running for office are teams on the field, honestly competing with each other to win. Those calling the shots are nowhere near the field, and don't particularly care who wins so they allow for such squabbles to happen. It entertains the peasants.
our 'friends in the desert' who give us the over/under
DJT is not a system guy
Note too Europe's aversion to DJT--a 'tell' in itself
The establishment opposes Trump because America's european catamites are less likely to blindly obey orders from a president Trump.
"Catamites", a new learned word for me. Thanks to the Googley machine.
It basically means "buttboi" or "european".
You are missing the real reason. There is a bi-partisan corruption train in Washington, which is why all (correctly voting) members of Congress become multi-millionaires. Bush-Obama-Clinton-Biden could be trusted (compromised) not to interfere with or expose the process. Trump was and still is a wild card.
Looking at the latest and very rapid about face by House Speaker Mike Johnson, we can assume that some combination of bribery and extortion was used to bring him in line.
As for policy, Cabinet presents positions/options to the President within areas of his responsibility. It is child's play to manipulate these so that the right path is eventually chosen.
I believe the real reason the deep state turned on Trump as relentless as it did was because they did not want a precedent set. The precedent of someone not chosen and anointed by them to run for president and get elected. Keep in mind, the coordinated persecution of Trump started immediately, and before it was known what he would actually do once elected. We know what a candidate says while running for election is no measuring stick to what he will actually do. So what he said during his campaigns can't be the real reason. Every candidate running for president, other than Perot, whose candidacy was quickly destroyed by the media, was supported by a part of the elite. Who a particular part of the elite favors can be determined by the part of the media each controls. But, in 2016, the deep state was united behind Hillary. They were outraged by someone running and getting elected against their combined will. The fear was it would encourage others with enough money to challenge them in the future. This also explains that Trump's attempt to show that he was a team player by surrounding himself with swamp creatures did not matter.
Plague and cholera, haha spot on!
the Interagency
It doesn't matter who the President is the direction of war "business" can't be changed; only complete bankruptcy and dissolution remain. Russia and China are successfully running mixed economies with decent governance structures. As the combined west has reached a terminal event from oligarchy-> kakistocracy it's last drinks and bug out or bail out.
The west theoretically can print infinite debt and still have a functioning economy without manufacturing a single thing. Whether that's possible in reality is doubtful because they tried it for 20 years and everything almost crashed (again) in 2019. Thankfully 19 Trillion COVID stimulus dollars fixed the ruined banking system, and they're almost ready to try again.
However if they start trouble with China, I wonder how long the western ruling elite and oligarchs can do without their Chinese made toys?
The garden gnome Yellen is a moron; asking for favours and then making threats out of each side of her mouth. China has taken note and been making arrangements since 2014 for disconnecting from the "west". The western kakistocracy can't even build a chip plant without grifting so there's no chance of re-industricalising no matter how many stink tank white papers say otherwise. And they think they control resources; let's see how that' going to work out for them in Africa. Good luck Australia cutting China off from iron ore; no iPhones for you, and empty Bunnings and JB.
Of course it can print but its citizens will starve. America is not unique in history in this respect, far from it.
"kakistocracy".
My second new learned word from these comments! Thanks to the Googley machine.
Ukraine is a Democratic project and Joe Bidens baby - Trump may just pull the plug on that basis alone.
Lt. Col Vindman dotes like a proud papa too
An unforced error on DJT's part
Sounds like a 'loyalty twinge' prevented his hanging Mike Johnson out to dry
Still, it's reminiscent of his haranguing the populace unendingly about building the wall...but then putting Obamacare in the crosshairs as soon as he got elected--?!!?
No, Trump is simply weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
His lack of any sense of loyalty is famous, even as he demands loyalty from others.
Absolutely. Those who believe he will have no idea of geo-politics. If 'the west' (aka the USA) is beaten in Ukraine it will be the biggest blow it has ever received in its entire history. Sanctions will have failed and then the ultimate weapon - industrial war - will have failed. The next step is the retreat of empire a the natives begin to stick two fingers up. And here Trump is REALLY dangerous - mainly because he has no idea at all and is probably clinically insane.
Exactly. He is just as Jew controlled as Biden.
Trump is a loud-mouthed cartoon character. Everything he mouths is self-referential, narcissism on steroids. A rich boy on the Post's society pages, likely never read a book. Probably couldn't locate Europe on a map. His "draining the swamp" included elevating the neo-con whack jobs, Bolton and Pompeo. His latest falling in line with the Uke and Zionist projects shows he's a good little poodle, owned by the MIC that Ike warned us about. I think the final fall of the Empire of Lies will be a Weimer Republic like event where it takes a wheelbarrow full of fiat paper to buy a 6-pak of Duff beer at the market. I'm appalled with how brainwashed my peers are re the Uke biz. Totally intellectually compromised, almost to the last one. It is depressing beyond words, yet...here we are. And, lest we forget...FJB our genocider in chief. Glad I'm 72 y/o and almost done with this shit show. Sorry kids and grandkids.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
He won't, but I believe what he'll do is something that the Biden admin refuses to do, which is push for a peace settlement.
Most Americans want to help Ukraine, but most Americans don't understand the full dollar cost or the escalatory activities of the Biden admin and all the neocon/neoliberal foreign policy advisors who are fuming mad that Ukraine is currently losing.
Well, let's just say both sides of the aisle are hoping for post-Beer Hall Putsch Trump. Looking into the history of it the parallels seem intentional.
Slight correction: the Leopard 2 variant that the Russians captured was a Leopard 2A6, which is far more significant as the Leopard 2A6 acts as the basis of the Germans' latest and best Leopard 2A7 and upcoming Leopard 2A8, meaning that all of Germany's best tanks (and by extension all of NATO's best tanks as the Leopard 2 was the most capable of all the NATO tank designs as proven both by its performance in Ukraine and by its greater success at winning export contracts) has been compromised. You can tell that this is a Leopard 2A6 and not a Leopard 2A5 by the extremely long cannon that is 55 calibers long (1 caliber is equal to the width of the barrel, meaning that the Leopard 2A6's L55 cannon is 120*55mm long) vs. the shorter 44 calibers long barrel of the Leopard 2A5, and by the fact that no baseline Leopard 2A5s have been sent to Ukraine. The Swedish Strv-122 was sent to Ukraine, and the Strv-122 is a Swedish up-armored version of the Leopard 2A5 that was developed at more or less the same time, which is why the Leopard 2A5 and Strv-122 are visually almost identical.
This is important to point out as this proves that the Russians didn't just capture some obsolete museum piece that NATO sent to be scrapped for free, but instead the most capable tank in NATO's arsenal with all the best and most modern shells, armor, cannon, and fire control system, which means that Russia has effectively checkmated all of NATO's tank forces with this capture.
Thanks for the correction.
Btw, do you reckon there's any way to repair the hole in that Rheinmetall cannon or is that too much specialty/proprietary work?
Do you believe they intend to use it in any other way than just driving it during parades?
Anyway, they captured more than one. They probably can get a gun in good condition.
Barrel integrity is compromised by unplanned holes in it. You can't really patch it, to my knowledge, because it can potentially blow out at some point in the future since the patch becomes the weakest part of the barrel.
If there is a hole through the cannon itself, repairing it to functional condition would be impossible, as cannon barrels need to be roughly monolithic pieces of metal with built-in tension meant to counter the stresses of firing a shell, which a simple patch is simply not up for. Also, as the L55 is a smoothbore cannon, it's very important that the inside be as perfectly cylindrical and smooth as possible, which would be hard to do when patching the barrel.
That being said, the barrel itself does not look damaged to me. When the camera is pointed down the barrel from the breach during the interior tour video, you cannot see any holes except for the expected barrel hole, but then again, this could just be due to the quality of the video. What's more telling is that the only apparent damage to the barrel is a few holes in the thermal sleeve, and the thermal sleeve is a thin layer of metal wrapped around the barrel in order to prevent it from warping due to asymmetric heating/cooling from sunlight or rainfall, which greatly improves accuracy. The mechanic said that the barrel was disabled by a few hits from FPV drones, but I highly doubt this is the case, as FPV drone hits even with rather tiny warheads would blow off entire portions of the thermal sleeve instead of just punching a few holes into it.
What I think actually hit the barrel was a Ukrainian Bradley that was spraying this Leopard 2A6 down with its autocannon in a desperate bid to scuttle it during the final days of the battle of Avdeevka, and autocannon impacts would only punch tiny holes in the thermal sleeve which is exactly the kind of damage we see on the barrel. The Bradley does have access to an armor piercing shell that's capable of perforating all the way through the L55's entire barrel assembly, so if one of those hit at a favorable angle, it would penetrate or nearly penetrate enough to render the barrel too structurally unsound to be usable, but it does not look like that happened.
My main concern with this Leopard 2A6's cannon is what kind of damage the heat from the fire did to the recoil springs and breach assembly, as exposure to high heat can change the properties of metals and alloys for better or worse, so I think it would be safer and wiser for the Russians to just use this particular cannon as a template with which to make replicas which they'll use to conduct actual tests of capability.
Could you suggest titles of good technical books on the mechanical engineering (all structural, metallurgic, ballistic, powertrain aspects) of a modern tank?
Wasn't Zelensky bragging about Ukraine's endless reserves of troops and manpower in 2022? How the turn tables turn.
Once Ukraine runs out of warm live bodies, they will Send In The Poles.
Poles won't be happy. Nobody will ask them.
While I don't like the idea of adding to the toll on either side, the Chihuahuas yapping about how they'll slaughter Russians on the field should be given every chance to live their dream.
Same goes for American politicians waving blue and yellow flags, along with their children.
Great stuff Simplicius, thank you.
I cant help but laugh at how Europe's leaders are invoking democracy to remilitarise (which they cannot do now as they've deindustrialised, and won't be able to do for decades even if they get rid of their global warming scam).
Let's get one thing straight - Europe is not democratic. Don't believe me? Just take the current members of the EU and UK. If you look closely at how the 29 current leaders of the EU and UK came to be in their positions, you would be shocked at how few of them have been directly elected by the people.
Take Michel & Von der Leyen. They were both chosen by the 'European Parliament', one of the most corrupt groups of people on the planet.
Of the remaining 27 'leaders', there are only 4 leaders you could say are legitimate popular election winners with popular mandates -.Macron (France), Fico (Slovak Republic), Orban (Hungary) and Fredricksen (Denmark).
The other 23 'leaders' have either been slotted in as caretakers (eg Rutte (Netherlands), are unelected and have power via their own parties (eg Kallas (Estonia, Scholz (Germany), or are in power by the skins of their teeth via fragile alliances with rival political blocks (eg Tusk (Poland).
In the UK, Sunak has no popular mandate. Neither did the idiot Liz Truss, before him.
More than a few of the 29 are deeply corrupt, as well. It makes sense that except for 2 (Orban and Fico), these illegitimate 'leaders' would coddle up to a corrupt, drug addicted psychopath dictator like Zelensky.
And yet they have the gall to use 'democracy' to justify remilitarisation, putting millions of men, women & young people at risk of death or injury, without exposing themselves to any risk at all.
Quite frankly, it's a disgusting spectacle and with the exception of Fico and Orban, I hope that the fall from grace of the others is not just very public, but also spectacular & humiliating.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-42424-comedown-after-post/comment/54761946?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=opa5u
This was my reply to you posted below & by mistake under another reply. Apologies.
@Ernesto Che
Sounds oddly like Barak Obama.
He was the prototype for the breed: appears out of nowhere - check; no real achievements in life - check; no real personality - check; WEF stooge - check; MSM lockstep behind him - check. After came Trudeau, Macron, Ardern, Sunak, Van der Leyen....
Yes, i wonder who might disagree with your assertion: “Europe is not democratic”. And neither is the USA. However, the question might be what ‘Democratic’ stands for. One thing really puzzles me is the idea of demos as being a backbone of democracy. So, when will we see the 1989 collapse of the liberal democracy? People are on the streets and …..elites ignore them.
Unlikely. Bread and circuses - and no conscription - keep the public quiescent.
I wonder….but so far it seems correct.
I'm in the heart of it, I know what I see. The only way that there is an insurrection in the US is if they bungle the election again.
I do have to admit that I was thinking more about Europe….but Europe seems even worse in terms of quiescence!
I would expect nothing different. As long as there is no actual privation, we're not going to see jack in terms of home front issues.
Introduce conscription and watch what happens, though.
They're not going to bungle it, they are going to steal it again. If we even have an election.
As long a the police and army will shoot when ordered, the rulers have nothing to fear.
I don't have warm fuzzies about the use of US security forces against the population. It'll be 1917 all over. The Tsar tried that crap, and the next day his regiments were going over to the other side. I've had this conversation with soldiers in theater - officers - who lived in utter fear of being told to give that order, with the full expectation that their own deaths would follow shortly thereafter.
Democracy is hopium and delusion, classed rightfully with Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
Well, if you ignore history.
Right on.
The thing is that sometime during the turn of the century, or in late 20th century, "democracy" started to be used as a synonim for "western way of life".
'Democracy' is the hypnotist's power word. It's what starts the trance.
Nothing is more important than the buzzword itself, protecting it, fortifying it [recall Molly Ball's 'TIME' magazine article from February 2021.]
The buzzword is part of an ideological mind-set that holds voters hostage, a type of language which delineates insiders from outsiders & exacerbates the uncertainty surrounding the electoral process. 'Our democracy' does not really mean democracy.
Note: neither the Constitution nor the Bill of Rights use the word 'democracy.' Neither did the Declaration of Independence
Demoncracy
Not only that, but all of those leaders (including Macron) are polling well beneath 50% approval rating. It's only the ones who aren't rabidly anti-Russian like Orban and Fico who have genuinely popular support.
You may well be correct. My point was more to include Macron as one of only 4 leaders of 30 (29 in EU and Sunak / UK) who can say they were popularly elected by their populations.
The other 25 (26 including Sunak) can't even say that, and of that 25 there are at least 15 if not more who weren't elected at all by the population, which is quite incredible when you think about it.
Ernesto, I used the 'Share Link to Comment' (see 3 dots bottom right of your posts) function. Hope that helps.
Believe me Ernesto I am no tech genius either!
Macron only got 21 % of people in age to vote and 'inscrits', aka registred(you need to register in France to be able to vote + your ID Card the day of the vote). When you read in msm 'Macron won 'majority' against fake opposition le pen' it is not true the 65/35 % yes but only from he one who went to vote and abstention was very high + 12 % who did not have time to register. Reality was Macron +- 21 % of French people above 18 years of age and MLP in the 14 or so. Though he did not have any majority at all, but French electoral system is stupid but on purpose, since De Gaulle you don't really need a second turn(except for Mitterand), le pen or a cow or a monkey makes no difference.
Just present your opponent as 'fascist', 'nazi' and now 'putinist' and it is ok.
There was rampant fraud in that election too
OK. Like I said I wasn't rely talking about the recent French election more contrasting that only 3-4 EU Member States can point to the fact that an election happened at all!
Sorry earlier reply was meant for another comment! Anyway I agree.
So?
Exactly, and the Greeks coined the term - kakistocracy; rule by the worst. Yes, the west is ruled to benefit of an oligarchy but it has completely degenerated - just to be post-modern.
Of course we are ruled by sociopaths and compromised fools.
As long as their orders continue to be carried out, it doesn't matter.
Add kleptocraies to kakistocracy and put sociopathy on top and you're getting close but there's no English words to adequately describe the scum.
When the water is turbid and dirty the scum will always rise to the top. Rome learned nothing from the Greek example; I guess an early version of "exceptionalism". Each successive western empire went the same way as the unrestrained money power killed its host.
Ugh, no, it's pretty new word, 17c, look it up
Macron got a lift from the Zuck Bucks prototype
This precisely. Good comment.
The religion of Global Warming has torn the heart from western manufacturing and replaced it with a low carbon footprint debt and services economy, where everyone uses debt to pay each other for haircuts and massages.
I watched some clips from the latest "church of climate" service and was bemused that they literally get children to tell them how to do things. These children certainly cannot understand how economies and sovereign nations need to operate to improve their people and economies, and protect their sovereignty.
Fantastic comment.
It's interesting how many are missing the reason why the West can't catch up to Russia.
Firstly, to reindustrialise the West would need to abandon the 'net zero' dream, and would then need to return to a massive carbon / fossil fuelled based recovery. Bye bye climate change, sayonara global warming.
Second, the entire population would be required to return to massive scale manufacturing, with all the brightest kids channeled into STEM and in particular, maths, advanced physics and engineering.
The toxic sludge philosophies aka 'woke' that have corrupted all levels of western education would need to be purged or returned to the irrelevant backwater studies they used to be. This means that the education system at both high school and tertiary / university level would need to be radically overturned, with the academic and bureaucratic apparatus purged of all those opposed to the change (pretty much all of them).
And that's before we get to how western nations source the materials required to start massive scale weapons manufacturing, let alone mass scale manufacturing. Metals, rare earth minerals, etc, etc. Where will UK and France, say, get the materials to do it? They can't.
You can see the problem. It's easy for western nations to say 'lets remilitarlise and reindustrialise' but it's incredibly difficult for them to do so.
In fact, it's not possible. The West has lost. There is no avenue to victory in this new world.
The only solution for the West is to accept reality, put down the weapons, and to re-engage with Russia and China on peaceful terms.
I couldn't agree more! Moreover, the skills from manufacturing to getting the necessary energy supply going - coal-fired or gas fired power stations - have vanished thanks to the modern anti-white/old-male ideology.
And then there's the minor inconvenience of food supplies and food security ... funny how the farmers' protests across the EU have vanished from the discourse. I'm sure 'Teh West' will demand that Russia be forced to send food to the starving NATO masses ...
"The only solution for the West is to accept reality, put down the weapons, and to re-engage with Russia and China on peaceful terms." That's precisely what the current Western "leadership" in incapable of doing. They will all have to go in order for this to have any chance of success.
The West will drop "climate" like a hot turd if and as convenient to do so.
Even if they did that tomorrow, it will take more than a generation to undo the self inflicted damages of the previous three.
The first signs are already here. The farmers' protests caused the cancellation of quite a few crazy green laws. Of course the globalists will keep on trying, but they will fail when their ideology starts to hit ordinary people directly in the pocket.
I think that is evident now. European apparent leaders are selected, not elected. All elections are rigged not to mention the vote preparation by MSM propaganda. However, we need to look at the democratic principle in itself, because democracy is the perfect system for capitalism since votes can be bought, congressmen can be bought, and civil servants can be bought. So any political system not controlling its own currency printing, its own central bank, and enterprises and corporations, in a total or mixed way, will always be a tool of traders and financeers who can easily and cheaply own the 5.000 toppers. In the Sahel rebelious African countries a system based on the Union of the masses and the armed forces is being installed as the only possible exit to the rigged corrupt parliamentary regimes. The US had a chance for a temporary military dictatorship for the people to purge the swamp. Now its to late.
Democracy, as a practical matter, is basically an exercise in passing the buck, in avoiding responsibility. The technical term for this is a "beard". Everyone in power claims to answer to and derive their authority from someone else, going ultimately back to "the people" who themselves do not directly exercise power, and who would find it difficult to exercise as a collective action problem, even if they had the formal authority to do so.
What this means is that real power is often in the hands of unelected bureaucrats, who typically don't even want to stand for election because they don't want the voters to know what their programs are, much less to exercise any oversight. Robert Moses is the classic example here.
Even that minimal level of scrutiny is too much for some, and real power is often exercised by people not formally part of any government structure. Corporate lobbyists or Robert Kagan come to mind .
They all seem oddly the same: bland, personality-free, incompetent and no evidence of any achievements. In short, Davbots
It's even worse than that, the EU is not just undemocratic, it is actively anti-democratic. Which European politicians typically go to important positions in the EU? Well, those who lose elections at home (like Verhofstadt and Michel) or who like von der Leyen, turned out to be too incompetent and corrupt to keep on as a minister. So it's the LOSERS of elections and the demonstrably incompetent (who'd never get elected if they had to run for anything) who end up in positions of power in the EU (and in other supra-national institutions like NATO, IMF, etc).
As long as their orders continue to be carried out, it doesn't matter how they got their sinecures.
Of course the EU is not democratic. Nor is the US, not to mention Ukraine. What does anyone propose to do about it?
As always, an exceptional piece. A couple of comments. Relative to domestic politics, apart from. saving Biden, which I believe is all but impossible, the other reason it is critical to keep Ukraine going till after the election is to blame Trump. The deep state likely knows Joe is a lost cause. They need to cut Trump off at the knees. Defeat is a big knife to stick in. They'd much rather weaken him and make him play ball than to destroy him. As for Ukie morale, no matter if they're believers or not, it is very difficult to keep an effective combat unit going with crappy unit level leadership. With quality unit level leadership a unit can continue to function in absolutely appalling conditions. It can be losing, freezing, starving, almost out of ammo, and the senior leadership can be idiots--and it will continue to function. All it takes is the first 3 or 4 levels. If platoon, company and battalion leadership is good, it will keep going. Take that away--and from what we've heard of Ukraine it's almost non-existent--and forget about it. Believe that's primarily why they've got a huge desertion rate. Finally, do a Grant. Stretch that line. Don't waste all those new guys hammering at the middle. Think Petersburg. The Crater didn't work, extending the lines 30 miles did. And when it finally cracks--in this case on the northern flank--everything comes tumbling down. That would be my bet on what they're up to. And by the way, by-pass Kharkov. Go round and surround and keep going. When the dust settles come back and pluck the apple from the tree.
Russia cannot convincingly push a strong offensive across the length of the front in Donbas as it is now, what does make you think that extending the front hundreds of kilometres to less relevant targets would make the AFU crumbling down?
Thinning of lines. Manpower stays the same, frontage increases.
Thinning of Russian lines to support new direction. AFU extensively mined the Sumy and Kharkov border. Much easier to defend (mines, drones, trenches, satellite surveillance) than to attack in the current war paradigm. Offensive would fizzle out and we'd have a lot of pictures of dozens of burning tanks like it was when Russians tried to cross the Donets river in Spring or Summer 2022. Don't realy know what the offensive would achieve as the collapse of the AFU at this point seems very far-fetched since they only need to sit tight and at most counterattack locally to slow down a Russian advance which has been at best only incremental so far
The AFU will end up manning a lot of positions with functionally useless conscripts if the lines are stretched. That's where the lines will just start breaking.
How often does a proxy win a war when
A] 5000 miles stretch between paymaster & proxy and
B] a language barrier exists
Angola won independence from Portugal with Cuban and Soviet assistance is a case that comes to mind
Another instance is the independence from Spain of South American countries during the first decades of 1800 which was backed by Britain
Well, Russia pretty much wiped French/US presence in Africa with one African Corps (ex-Wagner). All you need to have is genuine support from population. Hint - US doesn't have genuine support in Ukraine - half of population are simply terrorized into submission by current coup government.
Good point here: "half of population [ in Ukraine ] simply terrorized into submission by current coup government"
I've been wondering about what seems the complacency on the part of Ukrainian citizens @ the grassroots level--their lack of agency, their willingness to submit to the annihilation of their country/culture
Once Samantha Power shows up, say your prayers.
She has been working Ukraine for a decade
In the U.S. in 1969-1970 students on college campuses began protesting the Vietnam War, this after 60,000 KIA & 150,000 WIA
If Ukraine has suffered 500,000 casualties [ both KIA & WIA ] that would be a hard-to-ignore number for the population
In other words, the people of Ukraine know that this has been a grievous disaster--and yet they don't come out? No protests?
They're "simply terrorized" therefore unable to take action--?
Fearful of being duct-taped to a lamp post in the town square
Or disappeared--?
That's a question that has bugged me too. I live in one of the most conformist nations on Earth, yet the Ukies make us look like Hamas. Maybe the gutsy ones just voted with their feet and left.
Its very local thing. Ukrainians prefer to live in "mriya" ("fantasy") not in harsh reality. This fantasy promise them membership in EU - wich means rich easy life, total happiness. Its almost religious thing. So some people really are afraid of SBU and shit but they do share this dream of better life beyond mortal suffering of war. So they just suffer. Of cource when reality bites they come to their senses, but any change takes time.
Don't kid yourself. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
I think more stupid, easily manipulated and weak.
"And by the way, by-pass Kharkov. Go round and surround and keep going. When the dust settles come back and pluck the apple from the tree."
Russia should have done such things in February-March 2022. Russia has consistently underestimated western sociopathy.
By-passing Kharkov would be the smart move. If they control all ingress and egress routes, they don't need to burn through reserves forcing their way block by block. Same with Kiev, if they get that far before Ukies sue for peace. Just crater the runways of the airports and surround the city. Allow a humanitarian corridor for women and children and then just wait.
That appears to be the strategy, as Simplicius has stated. Pressure along most of the line until things crack. The Russians still have the patience gene. They can wait this out.
awesome - at least the part I could understand - I was thinking about Prigozhin very much and Putin, yesterdday...I guess this Russelll Bentley tragedy has reawakened that shock...but I was thinking that the surprising reaction ( to me ) of Putin - so angry about that basically armed rebellion that Prigozhin was threatening and carrying out towards Moscow - was when Prigozhin ' crossed the line ' Putin allows the mafiosos in Russia to carry on business but the deal is that they NEVER interfer with the government and the running of the country. That's when Prigozhin crossed that line of no return And so then, when Prigozhin boarded that airline IN MOSCOW with his two top senior guys - that was almost like a dare, or a deal offered Putin - of a sort of trust. But Putin didn't take it. The line had been crossed - that point of no return. And the plane got shot down by the RF That's what I think -
And I agree that Shoigu will never be busted for corruption. I think Putin trusts him.
Do you have any good sources about what happened to Russell Bentley?
no, I don't think anyone does. Just the videos that Lyudmilla puts out and I saw this yesterday - https://youtu.be/-pdUeiQyErE
Thanks for the link.
So it seems that RT and Sputnik have announced his death, but don't provide any details or say how they know.
And so we really know nothing.
Just like the scene in the movie Goodfellas, in which Jimmy calls on the phone to find out how the ceremony in which Tommy was supposed to become a "Made Man" went, and the old Mafia guy on the other end of the line tells him: "Uh, he's gone and that's it."
Many popular leaders (too popular)of dpr and lpr have been killed not by ukros...orders came from Moscow sometime eventhough it is hard to prove 100 %. I'm not a fan of Strelkov at all but the same happened to him but he survived, Russia lost Slaviansk (burisma capital). Remember Mariupol, dpr + Ru 'help' was entering the suburbs of the city when order from Moscow came to retreat because collusion and pressure between ukies and ru oligarchs. It is always about money, war is a racket, a class war.
Look what is now happening to Oleg Deripaska.
https://johnhelmer.net/russias-aluminium-strategy-sanctions-force-oleg-deripaskas-rusal-to-reverse-course-twenty-years-too/
I know a little about what you are saying - I have been following the Ukraine war since the beginning and watched all those charismatic leaders get killed one after another - but I was not aware that the RF had anything to do with it.
I can't see any usefulness in opening a new N (why not C ?) front I am afraid
Maybe, the only use of such an offensive would be to attack the Kupiansk sector of the front from the North. Instead, opening a new Kharkov or Sumy line seems to me a squandering of resources for meagre gains (protection of Belgorod).
If the offensive really has to come, wouldn't it make more sense to advance North along the Dnepr to Zaporizhzhia city and Dnipropetrobsk? Just saying, Russians troops would have one flank covered by the river, plus occupying those cities would shrink supply lines to Ukrainian Donbas front to roads and bridges to the North of Dnipropetrovsk.
But I don't think anything like that will happen, just upping up the tempo on the current Donbas lines would be the best course of action in my opinion.
The Russian army will have to attack Kharkov from Russia over difficult terrain along several valleys. The World War II battles for Kharkov showed how difficult it was to carry out offensives there. At the moment, for a successful offensive in this direction, the Russians will have to carry out additional mobilization. Kharkov could be captured from the rear, coming from Donbass, but now there are no prerequisites for this. I think that there are some chances that Kharkov will be transferred to Russia after secret negotiations between Russia and the West, then Ukraine will feign defeat in this direction and withdraw its troops.
Dnipropetrovsk would be a much more valuable catch than Kharkov in terms of implications to the whole AFU operations in the East of the Ukraine.
Dniepropetrovsk is slightly pro ukies as seen in all elections (it was more or less 50/50, or 60/40 between 'party of regions pro RU' and pro ukies parties), city was controlled by Kolomoisky (MH17 false flag) originated there.There is a small but very active zio jew crowd there eventhough many left when the SMO started like in Odessa. Now these jews who left to be 'protected' in Israel found a not so safe place(same for the RU jew fith column, some are even returning home).
On second thought I can see now that a Russian advance towards Zaporizhzhia and Dnepropetrovsk from the South would face great difficulties in terms of logistics and supply, given that there are only two supply routes from Russia:
- one through Crimea and the Kerch bridge, which is currently closed to military traffic I believe,
- and the other through the land corridor in the Donbass, which is not developed enough as of infrastructure, and is unsafe because too close to the frontline.
So only useful new "front" to be open would be immediately North of Kupiansk, on the other side of the Oskil river, in order to catch that Ukrainian stronghold in a pincer and then roll down the Ukrainians on both sides of that river up to Lyman.
I have no words. As always, masterful analysis. I follow several people. You are the only one I literally stop what I am doing to read anything new you produce.
In the event you read this, I have a question.
My true worry is Odessa. It is obvious to me that Russia WILL take Odessa. Their Black Sea fleet losses mandate it. And of course, to support Transnistria. And also, if you get a little further North? You have a land bridge to Hungary. And Hungary can escape the noose of the EU.
But I think the insane hubris of the Western world will lead them to put troops into Odessa if this comes close. And that is when I fear shit gets real. It is a Cuban missile crisis situation with no adults in the Western centers of power.
And that is frightening.
Russia has no mean to take Odessa, it should have been done in 2022.But smo was understaffed by 500k.Odessa is gone forever, biggest nato base is coming.
Russia probably has the means to take Odessa, and even if it doesn't it can certainly create the means. Just depends on if they think the cost is worth it. Who knows. Who is going to stop them? Europe? Do they have the means for that do they? Dealing out absolutes like you know with 100% certainty doesn't seem that wise to me.. I'm not sure why people do that, but everyone seems to always think they know best.
Because like Simplicius says, nato will see any RU troops concentration immediately and target them with missiles even if few ukros there. Logistic will be a nightmare. It will be a butchery of no name and VVP will not handle that. About nato or 'euro' troops taking Odessa of course very easy as the border is not very far and the city is still nazis controlled though they will not have to fight anybody in fact. Free entry. Except a few partisans, population is terrorized by gestapo SBU, they will not fight some will even rejoy. Nato goal is to transform Odessa in a big human shield (like they did in Mariupol) hoping RU will not dare to attack them.
Russia can take Odessa much cheaper and faster than Kharkow . Suggesting that the Russians opening a "northern front" is not making any sense . A thousand kilometers new front ? That would be doubling the current front line . There is minimal threat coming from the Kharkow direction after the Belgorod fiasco , just live them waiting in anticipation .
The only real damage coming consistently from the Odessa region . The Russians suffered most of the losses from the Odessa attacks . Why are they not focusing where the real treat coming from ? Odessa has real geopolitical value , it would greatly extend the supervision and control of the Black Sea . Why would the Russians allow NATO to grab it ? ? ? The Russians can't take Odessa , but NATO can ? The Ukrainians can't keep it so the Russians just let NATO take it ? What kind of a neighborhood that would result ? We are being blinded with minor results , hey look we take an other village that used to have thirty people living in it before the war . Are we playing real "Russian roulette" with this war ?
It stretches the front massively and Ukraine has to weaken other areas to meet this new threat. They are already undermanned everywhere. It makes the next step for Russia easier as they have the ability to concentrate to attack and Ukraine has no idea as to where this attack will be, but must defend a vastly wider front but with the same number of troops.
It makes a lot of sense.
Wrong ! The western team brought this conflict upon Russia to deny them operational space .
Forget about Ukraina , that is just an excuse for all the sanctions and demonization of Russia . Because of that threat , Sweden and Finland joined NATO . Without the instigated conflict in Ukraina that wouldn't have been possible . This way NATO can block Russia on the northwest in the Baltic area . What if NATO gain foothold in Odessa , and the western Black sea . They can block them or sanction them to ever cross that area via airways or waterways . The Russians only can overcome that with committing aggression against NATO , but that is third world war because of Russia . The Pacific area is already secured by the US and Japan . Only the soft underbelly left , but Armenia already a player and they are working on Georgia . Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan both are potential backstabbers if they are payed well. Than the real sanction comes , nothing in and nothing out of Russia , let them starve . Than what ? They are blockaded , strategic defeat if they make any move they are the aggressors and the West has the right to defend the "allies" About tens of millions of drones from all direction to saturate all air defenses and than what Chris Keating ? The globalist speculators are winning and we will be "subjects" Are you with them ? As soon as they win , same day they will start fighting amongst themselves because that is what make them live for .
Nope.
Disagree. Odessa will be taken by Russia and there is absolutely nothing NATO or Ukraine can do about it.
Agreed, but it doesn't mean that the neocons won't try something seriously crazy.
Agree. If Odessa remains in a future Ukraine state it will be a big NATO-base and a constant threat to Russia (Crimea and Fleet). But I am not so sure that Russia will take that area. Even in 2022 there was innumerable obstacles to overcome due to the westward advancement. You have to take Odessa from the North (or by a combined Sea/Air operation. Look at a map, it is simply impossible to move from Cherson. You have 4-5 riverdeltas to bypass. Forget Odessa for the moment. It is far more important for the Russians to open a Northern front and encircle the Ukrainian forces in Donbass (Kramatorsk, Isjum, Charkov) with a second front from Zaporizja. Reaching Dniepr will collapse the whole Ukrainian resistance as much the German forces crumbled in 1944.
Easier is to finally decapitate(whatever the cost in civilian casualties, ukrops love to kill Russian don't they repeat ad noseum?) Forget about this fake 'brotherhood' fiction. Young ukrainians born after 1991 don't have this feeling.Once the Zelensky clique is fully destroyed the rest will collapse as no more money, no more weapons, no more orders coming from liberated Kiev...propose surrender to the one fighting.
When I lived in Ukraine (2004-2012), nationalists were seen as freaks and losers, including among young people. Zelenskii was the youth candidate in 2019.
What happened was that it was made clear to Ukrainians that the price of admission to The Club, The West, The Golden Billion, The Magical Land Where Institutions Basically Work was for them to hate their brothers and their own parents.
There are also significant natural gas deposits sitting under areas of western Donbas that are currently occupied by Ukraine. Getting that territory back has to be a critical concern, not just for filling out the claimed borders of the two Donbas republics, but for denying Ukraine valuable income for decades to come.
You have legitimate concerns but I suspect that once NATO sees this insanely effective Russian military machine working at 70% capability plus, as opposed to the present 35-45%, they may be deterred from taking any reckless actions.
Odessa will be taken, with a landbridge established to take in Transnistria. Count on it.
I'll keep saying it. Take Odesa and the war ends. Use "overwhelming force" if necessary. If the city has to be destroyed, then it can be rebuilt, but the war will end.
200k are needed knowing that going to Odessa will mean 50 % losses for Russia, once there less problem as Odessa is probably the most Russian city in 404 even more than Kharkov.
Russia has to take Odessa and probably will. However, you fears are justified. Odessa might be the hill that the crazed neocons decide to die on. Hopefully, by the time the Russians get near there, the whole game will be over bar the shouting.
Remember China former MOD was fired with no reason given..a year ago. VVP will go to Beijing soon (after inauguration 7th May and the 9th of May Parade). Like he did before starting the smo expecting XI full support for the next phase of the war. Once again Russia must cease immediatly to let all red lines to be crossed including if very bad things happen in Crimea, ZNPP or in Russia deep (including strike on Moscow, Petersburg or even ,never know with budanov psychopath, on 9th may parade or on top kremlin people or another Crocus 2.0 but far worst. NATO territory must feel the pain at least once (no need to nuke anything at first) but big losses in military then energy then civilian, US bases, infrastructures..). I garantee you that article 5 is a joke, they will stop to double down and call (the US mainly) VVP to negociate even a losing exit. These people(politicos in election campaign), jornos, think tankers on their seats are just a bunch of total cowards far more afraid to lose their money, confort, their life, privileges....stocks will collapse in hours (- 50 %), gold will reach 4.000 usd, brent-wtI 150 or even more, it will calm them down in minutes.
There is a small risk they comit collective suicide but my evaluation is at 10 % no more. Euro foot, olympics, holidays, potus elections are coming soon...this the right time for Russia to strike or counter srike after a big bad event, there is a last window till july +- otherwise Nato will enter 404, and once there they will stay for years or forever, war will be lost for Russia, brics will desintegrate fast, China will stop his relative support, which will in fact later will mean the end of Russia after a few years or even before. RU goal now + China must be not only to end of zelensky junta but end of nato and EU as it works now. A coup d'état is forseen (Draghi from GS will replace VDleyen) during sept oct in the EU to create a 'federal Europe' as the US request of course it means cancell any sovereignty to any country(no more France or Germany etc... just in name 'region France').This project is highly unpopular in Western EU but not in Eastern Europe (poor countries). Don't forget that the real reason behind WWIII is the bankruptcy of the western financial system under hundreds of trillions of debts, quadrillions of derivatives since 2008 (Lehman) nobody cares abour Ukraine (front north) or Gaza (front south) really it is all about destroying China economy, EU economy to give some time more for the US to survive a bit longer. Destroy the BRICS, steal all RU assets(just started yesterday), take over Crimea which means no more RU in Syria as consequence no more access to hot waters), then greater zio israel project can go on, reinstate total dolarization, having Europe as slave for the US oligarchy with forever non competitive economy(energy too expensive), abolish democracy, elections in summary full fascism, Mussolini will look like a joke compared to the new EU NATO 'REICH'.
Greater israhell will take over 5 countries or even move to Israel 2.0 aka Ukraine. Which is neocons and evangelists goal since day one, look how fake opposition Trump capitulate for the 61 B package. RU must strike nato only chance to win, as westerners believe RU is weak(after 2 years not even able to retake Donbass), allowing all red lines to be crossed is just invitation to double down ''no risk they never retaliate', nukes? They lie they or don't have them or they don't work or VVP is so idiot and naive/afraid' the ''guy'' will never dare..etc etc..
They really believe this bs, they never understood the dual concept of demilitarization + denazification, they only think in terms of territories and carpet bombing.
Up to Russia to finally start to be serious, show and use force or disappear.
Pretty sure the Russians plan for the multitude of contingencies and possibilities, they are not idiots. I'm not sure where this perspective comes from that they aren't serious and they need to act like a westerner with emotional outbursts and erratic actions and immediate shows of force. Pretty sure the Russians know how to fight wars, they go about it methodically and logically in their own way. Not saying they are perfect but what bar are they being compared against? The West? Seriously? The West are good at forming a gang and bullying weak nations but that's about it these days. Isnt it up to westerners to finally get serious, vote out or remove their corrupt elites so Russia doesnt have to fight for the feedom of the world from the hegemonic power? Why does Russia have to fix it, it's the Western populations that have let this happen. There's no one else to blame. All i hear from westerners is Russia has to do this or Russia has to do that... But sounds like you know best, even without all the information required to make the decisions, you are stating empathetically that you know best and what has to be done... I don't understand this perspective....
On the heels of the U.S. sending a splash of cash to Taiwan 'for security,' the Sec of State shows up in Shanghai, ready to deliver an ultimatum to Wang Yi about China's shipping dual use tech components to Russia: you may not be interested in sanctions but sanctions are interested in you.
Premier Xi sees this--sees how this played out w/ Russia: once a defensive alliance like NATO, coaxed along by the U.S., fixes an adversary in its crosshairs, nothing short of abject submission will bring it to change tack. If the adversary resists the initial provocation, a defensive alliance like NATO, coaxed along by the U.S., will keep escalating w/ more & more provocations until it proves politically untenable for the targeted adversary to resist passively. Short of committing national suicide, the targeted adversary cannot opt for inaction.
Before you know it the adversary embarks upon a full-scale unprovoked war of aggression--!!
That was 24 February 2022 jacked.
VVP's trip to Beijing after Victory Day will help the two heads of state work on the deets
You nailed it! The US thinks they can do what the Brits did. Create chaos abroad and hide away on their island. If they are going down they will try to take everyone with them. Unfortunately for them they can easily be targeted in so many ways. Globalisation blowback, buckle up.
Although you aggravate all the signs on the wall into a deep dark abyss one can see the broad strokes leading to collaps of the democratic West with a 4th Reich emerging where Russia will fight for their life against. I agree, time is wasted on small gains in Donbass. US/NATO is moving the narrative slowly to a inevitable WW3 to stop the ”madmans in Kreml”. No one asked people int the west if they wanted war with Russia so they cant move too fast. Just incremental. Russia has a window of opportunity this summer or until US/NATO troops enter Ukraine. They should deliver a decisive blow but I doubt they can. Therefore I suggest decapitating Ukrainian leadership and a simultaneus two-three front offensiv. Whenever US/NATO troops and resources enter Ukraine the war will be over and both sides will come to a solution where Ukraine is split up to whatever gains Russia has made uptil then. It could take months or years but the outcome will be the same.
Another day, another pile of bodies.
I don’t really like it, war is murder at mass scale.
Call me and asshole and wish me testicular cancer s I can fucking die in piece and don't have to read these long articles or listen to "EXPERTS!" including this one on debunking expectations on hypersonic missile which even the governments in the west DO NOT KNOW how it works! With that out of my system..why doesn't Mr Putin STOP the sale of ALL..I MEAN ALL comodities to the hole fucking world? YES...China and all the poor nation in the world will suffer and YES the incredible groth of the Russian economy will crash...but isn't better to suffer just a little bit now (god forbide the Russin will not be able for a while to go into the supermarkets and show the world that they can still by coca cola made in poland!) and all the crazy christial westners anti gay maniacs can't not go live in Russia! than have the whle word going into nucler meltdown burger mode because of a bunch of spoiled ASSES think they can win a nuclear war? do you understand that all the people in power in the west have grown up with the JEW superman AND spiderman stories?They fucking believe that elephants can fly! WAKE THE FUCK UP PEOPLE! PS YES..I AM ANTI SEMITE!
Where is the down vote button?
And where was your "originality" when you came up with your screnn name? You couldn't go to I or K?
I prefer my own nickname, qwerty!
I would rather call you: Go back to elementary school and learn some english.
It is going to be funny when you people are starving to death and the only thing you will hear when you are crying is NO HABLE..anglo saxon piece of shit! and I am so happy I never set foot on one of your school for the retard....I haven't seen any anglo saxons at MIT! Lots of yellow china man right white boy!
guau, hombre, ¡estás por todos lados! Tu inglés es deficiente. Soy uno de los estadounidenses blancos a los que denigras en tu publicación anterior. Puedo asegurarles que nos irá muy bien aquí con nuestros compatriotas hispanos. Por si no lo sabías, los hispanoamericanos en mi país también odian a los ilegales. ¡Pon eso en tu pipa y fúmalo! ¡JA!
You're angry, aren't you. I can tell.
Can I have that in English please?…
I am sorry I am not part of the 3% of the world's population that is not educated on your stupid language! Is that the best you can do to affend me ?
“Offend” Hope that helps..
So funny that the only thing you've got out of my first comment was to mantion that my english is not perfect ..a anglo saxon way (coward) to call me illiterate! The golden billion HIPOCRASIA..Vai chupar muito pau the homan aqui no sul global..Understand me muchacho!!!hahahahaha
Such a vulgar comment. ¿Le hablas a tu mamá con esa boca? On a side note, my favorite Portuguese word is "consequentemente"...
Does your mother know you are playing on her computer? Also why don't you like Arabs?
where did you get the don't like arabs? and does your mother know she gave birth to a retard?
Ukies are in big trouble. Their lack of reserves is showing and will worsen allowing Russians to advance more across open land than seen previously. New tactics and modified armor are making this possible now and its success will spread to other sectors of the front. The key is to get the Ukies reeling backwards unable to right themselves in an advantageous defensive position. The one weapon Ukies have that slow down Russians is the FPV drone which now operate as artillery, close air support and infantry of a sort. The other impediment is the mine, but if you're reeling backwards there's no time to properly mine your retreat and artillery is too sparse to help. In about five weeks it will be June and the ground will be dry.
Agree. Russia must keep up a relentless push forward. The more speed, the better. They did it on the Germans and have all the knowledge from those campaigns regarding vectors of thrust, strategic areas and so forth. Russia can win all battles in this static war but loose the war…so better get moving!
Russia lacks the will to do so.
In about 4 weeks, Zelensky is not a legitimate leader, no reason to keep him around for signing an armistice (or what have you).