The ink has yet to dry on the signed Ukrainian aid, but it has finally passed both House, Senate, and the final Biden rubberstamp. As predicted here, the list of new items is “long” but mostly constitutes the secondary munitions types which aren’t as easily expendable and therefore still exist in some quantity. The primary ones, i.e. artillery shells and such, are still heavily backlogged.
It was pretty obvious from the beginning, and even more so now, that aside from the nazi fanatics represented by Azov and the its ilk, Ukrainians don't want this war and are not willing to die for NATO.
Slight correction: the Leopard 2 variant that the Russians captured was a Leopard 2A6, which is far more significant as the Leopard 2A6 acts as the basis of the Germans' latest and best Leopard 2A7 and upcoming Leopard 2A8, meaning that all of Germany's best tanks (and by extension all of NATO's best tanks as the Leopard 2 was the most capable of all the NATO tank designs as proven both by its performance in Ukraine and by its greater success at winning export contracts) has been compromised. You can tell that this is a Leopard 2A6 and not a Leopard 2A5 by the extremely long cannon that is 55 calibers long (1 caliber is equal to the width of the barrel, meaning that the Leopard 2A6's L55 cannon is 120*55mm long) vs. the shorter 44 calibers long barrel of the Leopard 2A5, and by the fact that no baseline Leopard 2A5s have been sent to Ukraine. The Swedish Strv-122 was sent to Ukraine, and the Strv-122 is a Swedish up-armored version of the Leopard 2A5 that was developed at more or less the same time, which is why the Leopard 2A5 and Strv-122 are visually almost identical.
This is important to point out as this proves that the Russians didn't just capture some obsolete museum piece that NATO sent to be scrapped for free, but instead the most capable tank in NATO's arsenal with all the best and most modern shells, armor, cannon, and fire control system, which means that Russia has effectively checkmated all of NATO's tank forces with this capture.
I cant help but laugh at how Europe's leaders are invoking democracy to remilitarise (which they cannot do now as they've deindustrialised, and won't be able to do for decades even if they get rid of their global warming scam).
Let's get one thing straight - Europe is not democratic. Don't believe me? Just take the current members of the EU and UK. If you look closely at how the 29 current leaders of the EU and UK came to be in their positions, you would be shocked at how few of them have been directly elected by the people.
Take Michel & Von der Leyen. They were both chosen by the 'European Parliament', one of the most corrupt groups of people on the planet.
Of the remaining 27 'leaders', there are only 4 leaders you could say are legitimate popular election winners with popular mandates -.Macron (France), Fico (Slovak Republic), Orban (Hungary) and Fredricksen (Denmark).
The other 23 'leaders' have either been slotted in as caretakers (eg Rutte (Netherlands), are unelected and have power via their own parties (eg Kallas (Estonia, Scholz (Germany), or are in power by the skins of their teeth via fragile alliances with rival political blocks (eg Tusk (Poland).
In the UK, Sunak has no popular mandate. Neither did the idiot Liz Truss, before him.
More than a few of the 29 are deeply corrupt, as well. It makes sense that except for 2 (Orban and Fico), these illegitimate 'leaders' would coddle up to a corrupt, drug addicted psychopath dictator like Zelensky.
And yet they have the gall to use 'democracy' to justify remilitarisation, putting millions of men, women & young people at risk of death or injury, without exposing themselves to any risk at all.
Quite frankly, it's a disgusting spectacle and with the exception of Fico and Orban, I hope that the fall from grace of the others is not just very public, but also spectacular & humiliating.
As always, an exceptional piece. A couple of comments. Relative to domestic politics, apart from. saving Biden, which I believe is all but impossible, the other reason it is critical to keep Ukraine going till after the election is to blame Trump. The deep state likely knows Joe is a lost cause. They need to cut Trump off at the knees. Defeat is a big knife to stick in. They'd much rather weaken him and make him play ball than to destroy him. As for Ukie morale, no matter if they're believers or not, it is very difficult to keep an effective combat unit going with crappy unit level leadership. With quality unit level leadership a unit can continue to function in absolutely appalling conditions. It can be losing, freezing, starving, almost out of ammo, and the senior leadership can be idiots--and it will continue to function. All it takes is the first 3 or 4 levels. If platoon, company and battalion leadership is good, it will keep going. Take that away--and from what we've heard of Ukraine it's almost non-existent--and forget about it. Believe that's primarily why they've got a huge desertion rate. Finally, do a Grant. Stretch that line. Don't waste all those new guys hammering at the middle. Think Petersburg. The Crater didn't work, extending the lines 30 miles did. And when it finally cracks--in this case on the northern flank--everything comes tumbling down. That would be my bet on what they're up to. And by the way, by-pass Kharkov. Go round and surround and keep going. When the dust settles come back and pluck the apple from the tree.
awesome - at least the part I could understand - I was thinking about Prigozhin very much and Putin, yesterdday...I guess this Russelll Bentley tragedy has reawakened that shock...but I was thinking that the surprising reaction ( to me ) of Putin - so angry about that basically armed rebellion that Prigozhin was threatening and carrying out towards Moscow - was when Prigozhin ' crossed the line ' Putin allows the mafiosos in Russia to carry on business but the deal is that they NEVER interfer with the government and the running of the country. That's when Prigozhin crossed that line of no return And so then, when Prigozhin boarded that airline IN MOSCOW with his two top senior guys - that was almost like a dare, or a deal offered Putin - of a sort of trust. But Putin didn't take it. The line had been crossed - that point of no return. And the plane got shot down by the RF That's what I think -
And I agree that Shoigu will never be busted for corruption. I think Putin trusts him.
I can't see any usefulness in opening a new N (why not C ?) front I am afraid
Maybe, the only use of such an offensive would be to attack the Kupiansk sector of the front from the North. Instead, opening a new Kharkov or Sumy line seems to me a squandering of resources for meagre gains (protection of Belgorod).
If the offensive really has to come, wouldn't it make more sense to advance North along the Dnepr to Zaporizhzhia city and Dnipropetrobsk? Just saying, Russians troops would have one flank covered by the river, plus occupying those cities would shrink supply lines to Ukrainian Donbas front to roads and bridges to the North of Dnipropetrovsk.
But I don't think anything like that will happen, just upping up the tempo on the current Donbas lines would be the best course of action in my opinion.
I have no words. As always, masterful analysis. I follow several people. You are the only one I literally stop what I am doing to read anything new you produce.
In the event you read this, I have a question.
My true worry is Odessa. It is obvious to me that Russia WILL take Odessa. Their Black Sea fleet losses mandate it. And of course, to support Transnistria. And also, if you get a little further North? You have a land bridge to Hungary. And Hungary can escape the noose of the EU.
But I think the insane hubris of the Western world will lead them to put troops into Odessa if this comes close. And that is when I fear shit gets real. It is a Cuban missile crisis situation with no adults in the Western centers of power.
Remember China former MOD was fired with no reason given..a year ago. VVP will go to Beijing soon (after inauguration 7th May and the 9th of May Parade). Like he did before starting the smo expecting XI full support for the next phase of the war. Once again Russia must cease immediatly to let all red lines to be crossed including if very bad things happen in Crimea, ZNPP or in Russia deep (including strike on Moscow, Petersburg or even ,never know with budanov psychopath, on 9th may parade or on top kremlin people or another Crocus 2.0 but far worst. NATO territory must feel the pain at least once (no need to nuke anything at first) but big losses in military then energy then civilian, US bases, infrastructures..). I garantee you that article 5 is a joke, they will stop to double down and call (the US mainly) VVP to negociate even a losing exit. These people(politicos in election campaign), jornos, think tankers on their seats are just a bunch of total cowards far more afraid to lose their money, confort, their life, privileges....stocks will collapse in hours (- 50 %), gold will reach 4.000 usd, brent-wtI 150 or even more, it will calm them down in minutes.
There is a small risk they comit collective suicide but my evaluation is at 10 % no more. Euro foot, olympics, holidays, potus elections are coming soon...this the right time for Russia to strike or counter srike after a big bad event, there is a last window till july +- otherwise Nato will enter 404, and once there they will stay for years or forever, war will be lost for Russia, brics will desintegrate fast, China will stop his relative support, which will in fact later will mean the end of Russia after a few years or even before. RU goal now + China must be not only to end of zelensky junta but end of nato and EU as it works now. A coup d'état is forseen (Draghi from GS will replace VDleyen) during sept oct in the EU to create a 'federal Europe' as the US request of course it means cancell any sovereignty to any country(no more France or Germany etc... just in name 'region France').This project is highly unpopular in Western EU but not in Eastern Europe (poor countries). Don't forget that the real reason behind WWIII is the bankruptcy of the western financial system under hundreds of trillions of debts, quadrillions of derivatives since 2008 (Lehman) nobody cares abour Ukraine (front north) or Gaza (front south) really it is all about destroying China economy, EU economy to give some time more for the US to survive a bit longer. Destroy the BRICS, steal all RU assets(just started yesterday), take over Crimea which means no more RU in Syria as consequence no more access to hot waters), then greater zio israel project can go on, reinstate total dolarization, having Europe as slave for the US oligarchy with forever non competitive economy(energy too expensive), abolish democracy, elections in summary full fascism, Mussolini will look like a joke compared to the new EU NATO 'REICH'.
Greater israhell will take over 5 countries or even move to Israel 2.0 aka Ukraine. Which is neocons and evangelists goal since day one, look how fake opposition Trump capitulate for the 61 B package. RU must strike nato only chance to win, as westerners believe RU is weak(after 2 years not even able to retake Donbass), allowing all red lines to be crossed is just invitation to double down ''no risk they never retaliate', nukes? They lie they or don't have them or they don't work or VVP is so idiot and naive/afraid' the ''guy'' will never dare..etc etc..
They really believe this bs, they never understood the dual concept of demilitarization + denazification, they only think in terms of territories and carpet bombing.
Up to Russia to finally start to be serious, show and use force or disappear.
Call me and asshole and wish me testicular cancer s I can fucking die in piece and don't have to read these long articles or listen to "EXPERTS!" including this one on debunking expectations on hypersonic missile which even the governments in the west DO NOT KNOW how it works! With that out of my system..why doesn't Mr Putin STOP the sale of ALL..I MEAN ALL comodities to the hole fucking world? YES...China and all the poor nation in the world will suffer and YES the incredible groth of the Russian economy will crash...but isn't better to suffer just a little bit now (god forbide the Russin will not be able for a while to go into the supermarkets and show the world that they can still by coca cola made in poland!) and all the crazy christial westners anti gay maniacs can't not go live in Russia! than have the whle word going into nucler meltdown burger mode because of a bunch of spoiled ASSES think they can win a nuclear war? do you understand that all the people in power in the west have grown up with the JEW superman AND spiderman stories?They fucking believe that elephants can fly! WAKE THE FUCK UP PEOPLE! PS YES..I AM ANTI SEMITE!
Ukies are in big trouble. Their lack of reserves is showing and will worsen allowing Russians to advance more across open land than seen previously. New tactics and modified armor are making this possible now and its success will spread to other sectors of the front. The key is to get the Ukies reeling backwards unable to right themselves in an advantageous defensive position. The one weapon Ukies have that slow down Russians is the FPV drone which now operate as artillery, close air support and infantry of a sort. The other impediment is the mine, but if you're reeling backwards there's no time to properly mine your retreat and artillery is too sparse to help. In about five weeks it will be June and the ground will be dry.
.
It was pretty obvious from the beginning, and even more so now, that aside from the nazi fanatics represented by Azov and the its ilk, Ukrainians don't want this war and are not willing to die for NATO.
My contact in a major big non nato intel services:
Estimates of military losses (04/24) - RUSSIA: 36,500 killed, 94,800 injured (including serious: 15%); UKRAINE: 445,000 killed, 455,000 injured (including serious: 67%) + 6,000 NATO mercenaries killed. Confidential cross-referenced SOURCES: FR/NATO/RUS/UKR/US.(plausible deniability)
Trump will not cut off aid to Ukraine.
Slight correction: the Leopard 2 variant that the Russians captured was a Leopard 2A6, which is far more significant as the Leopard 2A6 acts as the basis of the Germans' latest and best Leopard 2A7 and upcoming Leopard 2A8, meaning that all of Germany's best tanks (and by extension all of NATO's best tanks as the Leopard 2 was the most capable of all the NATO tank designs as proven both by its performance in Ukraine and by its greater success at winning export contracts) has been compromised. You can tell that this is a Leopard 2A6 and not a Leopard 2A5 by the extremely long cannon that is 55 calibers long (1 caliber is equal to the width of the barrel, meaning that the Leopard 2A6's L55 cannon is 120*55mm long) vs. the shorter 44 calibers long barrel of the Leopard 2A5, and by the fact that no baseline Leopard 2A5s have been sent to Ukraine. The Swedish Strv-122 was sent to Ukraine, and the Strv-122 is a Swedish up-armored version of the Leopard 2A5 that was developed at more or less the same time, which is why the Leopard 2A5 and Strv-122 are visually almost identical.
This is important to point out as this proves that the Russians didn't just capture some obsolete museum piece that NATO sent to be scrapped for free, but instead the most capable tank in NATO's arsenal with all the best and most modern shells, armor, cannon, and fire control system, which means that Russia has effectively checkmated all of NATO's tank forces with this capture.
Wasn't Zelensky bragging about Ukraine's endless reserves of troops and manpower in 2022? How the turn tables turn.
Great stuff Simplicius, thank you.
I cant help but laugh at how Europe's leaders are invoking democracy to remilitarise (which they cannot do now as they've deindustrialised, and won't be able to do for decades even if they get rid of their global warming scam).
Let's get one thing straight - Europe is not democratic. Don't believe me? Just take the current members of the EU and UK. If you look closely at how the 29 current leaders of the EU and UK came to be in their positions, you would be shocked at how few of them have been directly elected by the people.
Take Michel & Von der Leyen. They were both chosen by the 'European Parliament', one of the most corrupt groups of people on the planet.
Of the remaining 27 'leaders', there are only 4 leaders you could say are legitimate popular election winners with popular mandates -.Macron (France), Fico (Slovak Republic), Orban (Hungary) and Fredricksen (Denmark).
The other 23 'leaders' have either been slotted in as caretakers (eg Rutte (Netherlands), are unelected and have power via their own parties (eg Kallas (Estonia, Scholz (Germany), or are in power by the skins of their teeth via fragile alliances with rival political blocks (eg Tusk (Poland).
In the UK, Sunak has no popular mandate. Neither did the idiot Liz Truss, before him.
More than a few of the 29 are deeply corrupt, as well. It makes sense that except for 2 (Orban and Fico), these illegitimate 'leaders' would coddle up to a corrupt, drug addicted psychopath dictator like Zelensky.
And yet they have the gall to use 'democracy' to justify remilitarisation, putting millions of men, women & young people at risk of death or injury, without exposing themselves to any risk at all.
Quite frankly, it's a disgusting spectacle and with the exception of Fico and Orban, I hope that the fall from grace of the others is not just very public, but also spectacular & humiliating.
As always, an exceptional piece. A couple of comments. Relative to domestic politics, apart from. saving Biden, which I believe is all but impossible, the other reason it is critical to keep Ukraine going till after the election is to blame Trump. The deep state likely knows Joe is a lost cause. They need to cut Trump off at the knees. Defeat is a big knife to stick in. They'd much rather weaken him and make him play ball than to destroy him. As for Ukie morale, no matter if they're believers or not, it is very difficult to keep an effective combat unit going with crappy unit level leadership. With quality unit level leadership a unit can continue to function in absolutely appalling conditions. It can be losing, freezing, starving, almost out of ammo, and the senior leadership can be idiots--and it will continue to function. All it takes is the first 3 or 4 levels. If platoon, company and battalion leadership is good, it will keep going. Take that away--and from what we've heard of Ukraine it's almost non-existent--and forget about it. Believe that's primarily why they've got a huge desertion rate. Finally, do a Grant. Stretch that line. Don't waste all those new guys hammering at the middle. Think Petersburg. The Crater didn't work, extending the lines 30 miles did. And when it finally cracks--in this case on the northern flank--everything comes tumbling down. That would be my bet on what they're up to. And by the way, by-pass Kharkov. Go round and surround and keep going. When the dust settles come back and pluck the apple from the tree.
awesome - at least the part I could understand - I was thinking about Prigozhin very much and Putin, yesterdday...I guess this Russelll Bentley tragedy has reawakened that shock...but I was thinking that the surprising reaction ( to me ) of Putin - so angry about that basically armed rebellion that Prigozhin was threatening and carrying out towards Moscow - was when Prigozhin ' crossed the line ' Putin allows the mafiosos in Russia to carry on business but the deal is that they NEVER interfer with the government and the running of the country. That's when Prigozhin crossed that line of no return And so then, when Prigozhin boarded that airline IN MOSCOW with his two top senior guys - that was almost like a dare, or a deal offered Putin - of a sort of trust. But Putin didn't take it. The line had been crossed - that point of no return. And the plane got shot down by the RF That's what I think -
And I agree that Shoigu will never be busted for corruption. I think Putin trusts him.
I can't see any usefulness in opening a new N (why not C ?) front I am afraid
Maybe, the only use of such an offensive would be to attack the Kupiansk sector of the front from the North. Instead, opening a new Kharkov or Sumy line seems to me a squandering of resources for meagre gains (protection of Belgorod).
If the offensive really has to come, wouldn't it make more sense to advance North along the Dnepr to Zaporizhzhia city and Dnipropetrobsk? Just saying, Russians troops would have one flank covered by the river, plus occupying those cities would shrink supply lines to Ukrainian Donbas front to roads and bridges to the North of Dnipropetrovsk.
But I don't think anything like that will happen, just upping up the tempo on the current Donbas lines would be the best course of action in my opinion.
I have no words. As always, masterful analysis. I follow several people. You are the only one I literally stop what I am doing to read anything new you produce.
In the event you read this, I have a question.
My true worry is Odessa. It is obvious to me that Russia WILL take Odessa. Their Black Sea fleet losses mandate it. And of course, to support Transnistria. And also, if you get a little further North? You have a land bridge to Hungary. And Hungary can escape the noose of the EU.
But I think the insane hubris of the Western world will lead them to put troops into Odessa if this comes close. And that is when I fear shit gets real. It is a Cuban missile crisis situation with no adults in the Western centers of power.
And that is frightening.
Remember China former MOD was fired with no reason given..a year ago. VVP will go to Beijing soon (after inauguration 7th May and the 9th of May Parade). Like he did before starting the smo expecting XI full support for the next phase of the war. Once again Russia must cease immediatly to let all red lines to be crossed including if very bad things happen in Crimea, ZNPP or in Russia deep (including strike on Moscow, Petersburg or even ,never know with budanov psychopath, on 9th may parade or on top kremlin people or another Crocus 2.0 but far worst. NATO territory must feel the pain at least once (no need to nuke anything at first) but big losses in military then energy then civilian, US bases, infrastructures..). I garantee you that article 5 is a joke, they will stop to double down and call (the US mainly) VVP to negociate even a losing exit. These people(politicos in election campaign), jornos, think tankers on their seats are just a bunch of total cowards far more afraid to lose their money, confort, their life, privileges....stocks will collapse in hours (- 50 %), gold will reach 4.000 usd, brent-wtI 150 or even more, it will calm them down in minutes.
There is a small risk they comit collective suicide but my evaluation is at 10 % no more. Euro foot, olympics, holidays, potus elections are coming soon...this the right time for Russia to strike or counter srike after a big bad event, there is a last window till july +- otherwise Nato will enter 404, and once there they will stay for years or forever, war will be lost for Russia, brics will desintegrate fast, China will stop his relative support, which will in fact later will mean the end of Russia after a few years or even before. RU goal now + China must be not only to end of zelensky junta but end of nato and EU as it works now. A coup d'état is forseen (Draghi from GS will replace VDleyen) during sept oct in the EU to create a 'federal Europe' as the US request of course it means cancell any sovereignty to any country(no more France or Germany etc... just in name 'region France').This project is highly unpopular in Western EU but not in Eastern Europe (poor countries). Don't forget that the real reason behind WWIII is the bankruptcy of the western financial system under hundreds of trillions of debts, quadrillions of derivatives since 2008 (Lehman) nobody cares abour Ukraine (front north) or Gaza (front south) really it is all about destroying China economy, EU economy to give some time more for the US to survive a bit longer. Destroy the BRICS, steal all RU assets(just started yesterday), take over Crimea which means no more RU in Syria as consequence no more access to hot waters), then greater zio israel project can go on, reinstate total dolarization, having Europe as slave for the US oligarchy with forever non competitive economy(energy too expensive), abolish democracy, elections in summary full fascism, Mussolini will look like a joke compared to the new EU NATO 'REICH'.
Greater israhell will take over 5 countries or even move to Israel 2.0 aka Ukraine. Which is neocons and evangelists goal since day one, look how fake opposition Trump capitulate for the 61 B package. RU must strike nato only chance to win, as westerners believe RU is weak(after 2 years not even able to retake Donbass), allowing all red lines to be crossed is just invitation to double down ''no risk they never retaliate', nukes? They lie they or don't have them or they don't work or VVP is so idiot and naive/afraid' the ''guy'' will never dare..etc etc..
They really believe this bs, they never understood the dual concept of demilitarization + denazification, they only think in terms of territories and carpet bombing.
Up to Russia to finally start to be serious, show and use force or disappear.
The spectator article is delusional
Another day, another pile of bodies.
Call me and asshole and wish me testicular cancer s I can fucking die in piece and don't have to read these long articles or listen to "EXPERTS!" including this one on debunking expectations on hypersonic missile which even the governments in the west DO NOT KNOW how it works! With that out of my system..why doesn't Mr Putin STOP the sale of ALL..I MEAN ALL comodities to the hole fucking world? YES...China and all the poor nation in the world will suffer and YES the incredible groth of the Russian economy will crash...but isn't better to suffer just a little bit now (god forbide the Russin will not be able for a while to go into the supermarkets and show the world that they can still by coca cola made in poland!) and all the crazy christial westners anti gay maniacs can't not go live in Russia! than have the whle word going into nucler meltdown burger mode because of a bunch of spoiled ASSES think they can win a nuclear war? do you understand that all the people in power in the west have grown up with the JEW superman AND spiderman stories?They fucking believe that elephants can fly! WAKE THE FUCK UP PEOPLE! PS YES..I AM ANTI SEMITE!
Ukies are in big trouble. Their lack of reserves is showing and will worsen allowing Russians to advance more across open land than seen previously. New tactics and modified armor are making this possible now and its success will spread to other sectors of the front. The key is to get the Ukies reeling backwards unable to right themselves in an advantageous defensive position. The one weapon Ukies have that slow down Russians is the FPV drone which now operate as artillery, close air support and infantry of a sort. The other impediment is the mine, but if you're reeling backwards there's no time to properly mine your retreat and artillery is too sparse to help. In about five weeks it will be June and the ground will be dry.