Today we have some interesting thematic developments in the context of Ukraine’s future sustainment outlook. The most talked about of course is the headway being made for the Ukrainian aid bill, which is set to be voted on in both the House and Senate this weekend and early next week, owing to Speaker Mike Johnson’s eye-opening U-turn. The U-turn was in fact
The FT headlined this plan, in an increasingly frequent show of desperation
Adept at selling other people’s futures back to them, this proposal takes the current windfall tax applied to Eurcolear’s profits made from the management of frozen CBR assets
This plan is just that, not voted through- faces a number of objections, by their nature this EUC tax windfall must be a one off, Euroclear’s profits according to the market are their’s, profits from assets belong to the asset holder, and so on
The US wrinkle is to scavenge a bond issue backed by the future profits – but these are incalculable, liable to be interrupted by the end of war, plus would get in way of any future cease fire or peace arrangements
– who would wish to guarantee these bonds ? and why would any prospective buyers believe this guarantee ?
>The point being, given the somewhat questionable shootdown ability against the ATACMs demonstrated thus far, it could pose a bit of a problem if provided in much larger quantity, particularly at a time when Russia will be gearing up for a large offensive, which means huge stores of munitions will be laid up at brigade HQs, as well as large manpower concentrations, etc.
Nobody has strong defenses against ballistic missiles. This has been quite clearly demonstrated these last two years, especially now with the Iran strike on Israel.
The only somewhat reliable defenses are:
1) Area denial
2) Deterrence.
Russia has been failing abysmally on both.
It remains a mystery why the Polish and Romanian borders have not been sealed.
And it remains a mystery why weapons transfer is allowed in the first place.
Until those things change, there will be many more such painful hits. And eventually NATO might sneak in some nukes too.
P.S. Same applies to the Belgorod shelling. Never in history previously has a nuclear superpower allowed its own cities to be terror bombed daily without really doing anything to stop it. Loud promises were made that if such attacks occur, there will be retaliatory strikes on those who produced the weapons. Well, we are still waiting for mushroom clouds in Prague...
And people in Belgorod are really pissed, don't mistake the fact that you have not seen any reports on what the mood is there for evidence for absence of resentment. Which is achieving precisely what the West intended with these strikes -- to cause resentment towards Putin by showing regular Russians that he doesn't care about their lives. The problem is it indeed very hard to argue that the Kremlin cares about Belgorod based on the events of the last four months, the evidence is in exactly the opposite direction.
The wings on the T-80BVM make it look Formula 1 ready.
Looks like nobody is stepping back from the dial on the oven, 'cause the heat keeps coming up and up. Israel and Iran slinging explosive at each other seems to have gotten the hawks in gear.
Hey, isn't that Hamish guy the one who proclaimed that the sight of the Challengers would make the orc hordes flee in terror without firing a shot? He should command a Challenged into the teeth of Russian arty and drones, see how that works for him.
The effect of the new Ukraine conscription law, with absence of the 36 month limit, will be to increase Ukrainian surrenders.
Doesn't matter whether a soldier is near 36 months or not, the message from the regime is that you will fight until you are killed, with no other possibility. That's a simple message that everyone can understand. Now there's no downside to trying to surrender.
Not to take anything away from Russia in terms of its military industrial output, but that video shows that neither Shoigu, nor any of the accompanying military and industrial officials is going short of meals.
Johnson seems to have succumbed to the viruganda. This will cost him like that chumpy from killafornia, whatsa his fuck Kevin crappalot, the last fallen speaker in what can become a long line of them
The major difference between western attitudes and that of the average Russian is- for the Russian- a belief in a cause greater than him/herself in which he is/she is proud to serve, and for which he/she is proud to give his/her life. The average Russian fights for a supremely powerful egregore- 'Mother Russia', in whom a deep pride has been reawakened by his/her own shamanistic leader, one Vladimir Putin.
The average westerner, who doesn't even think any such higher entities exist, is his own highest cause, a little centre of self importance and self indulgence in the cause of which he/she has become risibly enfeebled. Which is why no western state wants to test their people in active bloody combat, either on the ground or in the air. Who or what would they be fighting for? Emmanuel Macron (widely detested)? Lord Cameron (recently caught with his hands on marked money and about to be booted out of office in a forthcoming election)? Jens Stoltenberg (the chap in the cardigan who keeps trying to walk away from the whole mess)? It gets worse the deeper you plunge into these over-promoted non entities.
The desire of a cosseted elite that never sees a ballot box, to maintain a self serving status quo, is not going to fuel a wider european war although it could signal the collapse of this laughable self styled 'international community' of posers who have got their hands on the money tree and are busy stripping it of its fruit and undermining its roots. No one else needs to be worried about Russia who has never been interested in territory but security, and the longer the west fights back the more of Ukraine Russia is going to have to swallow to achieve secure boundaries.
That said, a new europe centred on Russian resources would be a powerful bloc indeed, and is precisely what the US fears, and why it has kept NATO going since WWII.
The Deep State always gets to feed. It won't make much difference for Ukraine. Soon the Congressman will be ousted, but will have secured his place on the board of some MIC corporation.
Great article Simplicius. I have shared the link on A Skeptic War Reports
Such a contrast between the US and Russia when it comes down to what actually is gonna win this war. The US congress pumping their chests talking about how their collective votes are some how gonna stop russia's massive war machine. There's no factory anywhere in the US that even remotely compares to that tank factory shoigu was touring. That's far more convincing than a money printing machine which is all America really has
20 April 2024 Zombie CBR Confiscation Rises from the Dead
US desperate for money for Ukraine
« US proposes debt to fund Ukraine using profits from frozen Russian assets’
https://www.ft.com/content/6cb21054-ccfc-4cb9-ab58-516d80be94de
The FT headlined this plan, in an increasingly frequent show of desperation
Adept at selling other people’s futures back to them, this proposal takes the current windfall tax applied to Eurcolear’s profits made from the management of frozen CBR assets
This plan is just that, not voted through- faces a number of objections, by their nature this EUC tax windfall must be a one off, Euroclear’s profits according to the market are their’s, profits from assets belong to the asset holder, and so on
The US wrinkle is to scavenge a bond issue backed by the future profits – but these are incalculable, liable to be interrupted by the end of war, plus would get in way of any future cease fire or peace arrangements
– who would wish to guarantee these bonds ? and why would any prospective buyers believe this guarantee ?
Theft is a lot harder than you think
>The point being, given the somewhat questionable shootdown ability against the ATACMs demonstrated thus far, it could pose a bit of a problem if provided in much larger quantity, particularly at a time when Russia will be gearing up for a large offensive, which means huge stores of munitions will be laid up at brigade HQs, as well as large manpower concentrations, etc.
Nobody has strong defenses against ballistic missiles. This has been quite clearly demonstrated these last two years, especially now with the Iran strike on Israel.
The only somewhat reliable defenses are:
1) Area denial
2) Deterrence.
Russia has been failing abysmally on both.
It remains a mystery why the Polish and Romanian borders have not been sealed.
And it remains a mystery why weapons transfer is allowed in the first place.
Until those things change, there will be many more such painful hits. And eventually NATO might sneak in some nukes too.
P.S. Same applies to the Belgorod shelling. Never in history previously has a nuclear superpower allowed its own cities to be terror bombed daily without really doing anything to stop it. Loud promises were made that if such attacks occur, there will be retaliatory strikes on those who produced the weapons. Well, we are still waiting for mushroom clouds in Prague...
And people in Belgorod are really pissed, don't mistake the fact that you have not seen any reports on what the mood is there for evidence for absence of resentment. Which is achieving precisely what the West intended with these strikes -- to cause resentment towards Putin by showing regular Russians that he doesn't care about their lives. The problem is it indeed very hard to argue that the Kremlin cares about Belgorod based on the events of the last four months, the evidence is in exactly the opposite direction.
Even if the Ukraine mobilised (forced) many hundreds of thousands into the front they would be ineffective.
The wings on the T-80BVM make it look Formula 1 ready.
Looks like nobody is stepping back from the dial on the oven, 'cause the heat keeps coming up and up. Israel and Iran slinging explosive at each other seems to have gotten the hawks in gear.
Hey, isn't that Hamish guy the one who proclaimed that the sight of the Challengers would make the orc hordes flee in terror without firing a shot? He should command a Challenged into the teeth of Russian arty and drones, see how that works for him.
nothing about Russell Bentley
The effect of the new Ukraine conscription law, with absence of the 36 month limit, will be to increase Ukrainian surrenders.
Doesn't matter whether a soldier is near 36 months or not, the message from the regime is that you will fight until you are killed, with no other possibility. That's a simple message that everyone can understand. Now there's no downside to trying to surrender.
Not to take anything away from Russia in terms of its military industrial output, but that video shows that neither Shoigu, nor any of the accompanying military and industrial officials is going short of meals.
Isn't that what Fatima prophesized?
The future is Russia, thank God. That means both melody, harmony, and likely rhythm too, and lots of consonants with a few vowels
Johnson seems to have succumbed to the viruganda. This will cost him like that chumpy from killafornia, whatsa his fuck Kevin crappalot, the last fallen speaker in what can become a long line of them
Simple solution is for Russia to just sit back and let FAB-1500 speaks. Save lifes and vapourise Nazis.
And how many of those 25&26 yo were born in Donbas?
And how many remain in ukraine?
The major difference between western attitudes and that of the average Russian is- for the Russian- a belief in a cause greater than him/herself in which he is/she is proud to serve, and for which he/she is proud to give his/her life. The average Russian fights for a supremely powerful egregore- 'Mother Russia', in whom a deep pride has been reawakened by his/her own shamanistic leader, one Vladimir Putin.
The average westerner, who doesn't even think any such higher entities exist, is his own highest cause, a little centre of self importance and self indulgence in the cause of which he/she has become risibly enfeebled. Which is why no western state wants to test their people in active bloody combat, either on the ground or in the air. Who or what would they be fighting for? Emmanuel Macron (widely detested)? Lord Cameron (recently caught with his hands on marked money and about to be booted out of office in a forthcoming election)? Jens Stoltenberg (the chap in the cardigan who keeps trying to walk away from the whole mess)? It gets worse the deeper you plunge into these over-promoted non entities.
The desire of a cosseted elite that never sees a ballot box, to maintain a self serving status quo, is not going to fuel a wider european war although it could signal the collapse of this laughable self styled 'international community' of posers who have got their hands on the money tree and are busy stripping it of its fruit and undermining its roots. No one else needs to be worried about Russia who has never been interested in territory but security, and the longer the west fights back the more of Ukraine Russia is going to have to swallow to achieve secure boundaries.
That said, a new europe centred on Russian resources would be a powerful bloc indeed, and is precisely what the US fears, and why it has kept NATO going since WWII.
The Deep State always gets to feed. It won't make much difference for Ukraine. Soon the Congressman will be ousted, but will have secured his place on the board of some MIC corporation.
Great article Simplicius. I have shared the link on A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
As for the arrival of a new tranche of wonder weapons now with a much longer range, all this will do is widen the war- in BOTH directions.
Is that really what NATO wants?
Such a contrast between the US and Russia when it comes down to what actually is gonna win this war. The US congress pumping their chests talking about how their collective votes are some how gonna stop russia's massive war machine. There's no factory anywhere in the US that even remotely compares to that tank factory shoigu was touring. That's far more convincing than a money printing machine which is all America really has