Let’s start by catching up on some sundry and important news of the past few days. First it must be noted that there’s been a sharp uptick in the shrillness of desperation in the Western MSM reportage this past week. Ever since the Leaks to end all Leaks dropped, it’s been nothing but doom and gloom and panic.
Apr 13, 2023·edited Apr 13, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Well done. We are at the nexus of reality vs. Western spin narrative now. The crux in the road. The West was looking for a "photo op" smooth exit from this debacle, and it is slowly creeping into the NATO consciousness that this will indeed not happen. What will happen is surrender on Russian terms. That is a factual inevitability. It is written in stone now. In the tablets. What happens in Ukraine from now on will be 100% on Russian terms. We discussed previously that the Russian Air Force would play a decisive role in the ending of this conflict. Well, it seems it has already happened. I have not heard of the FAB 3000, but if this is indeed being dropped on Ukrainian postions it is lights out. The FAB 1500 by itself does massive damage. The Ukrainians can shoot their wad with their" spring offensive", but they will be anilhated. NATO is no match for the Russians in their backyard. The stupidy and arrogance of NATO is pursuing this conflict and escalating is epic in its scope. I say all of this with the understanding that Russia has restrained itself in the damage it has inflicted so as to avoid NATO going totally insane. Russia is fighting with 100% confidence , resolve and capacity to prevail. And it will prevail on its terms. We are at the beginning of the end now. Less than 6 months to go.
You put into great detail what I was thinking today. I would agree that the AFU/NATO troop numbers are meaningless absent of any real capability to realize any militarily significant goal. It's not like they're on the highway to Moscow after beating up a few old tanks...
With respect to satellites, JDAMS, and even UAVs, why jam that hardware if you have the ability to feed dirty data streams into their GPS, or other sensors?
An incredible amount of information here. There’s much to digest. It’s amusing how most of the population if they follow this at all still believe in the upcoming spring offensive. There seems to be a growing unrest with the whole situation. Putin is evil doesn’t seem to cut it for a lot of people anymore. Thanks for another incredible job.
the preailing/root causes of jdam failures may not be russian jamming, other suspects: reliability, shoddy integration with the aircraft delivering the jdam, shoddy integration with the ordnance including fuse failure.
reliability, how many shipped kits were defects? jdam kits have been in 'stock' for years, all kinds of things happen, and the kits should have been inspected and function checked before shipping. then we should worry shipping damage such as jarring. jdam was a troubled program until there were more troubled programs like f-35.
the kits are designed to bolt on to a dumb/iron bomb, what are the fuse links for soviet bombs?
finally, the jdam is controlled from the cockpit, how good was the 'weapons control set up' for an old soviet mig?
a lot of ordnance has a dud rate and jdam may be suspect.
Have not had time to read it all, but I am concerned with the veracity of the part about Wagner. The US does not have a "Defense Ministry" or "Ministry of Defense" - so what gives there? Can't be a simple translation error and why would this information be being conveyed in a language other than English? Further, if it is coming from a British writer, why is everything else spelled in the Americanized form of English?
"US military experts are concerned about the effectiveness of the Wagner PMCs – a source in the US Defense Ministry said.
As DC Weekly writes experts of the Ministry of Defense conducted an in-depth analysis of the activities of the Wagner PMCs and came to the conclusion that no American, British or French similar structure can compare with their units."
Sorry but that looks highly suspect. Why would a rag called "DC Weekly" not know that there are no "ministries" in the USG?
Apr 13, 2023·edited Apr 13, 2023Liked by Simplicius
I can't understand Ukrainian strategy. Today they lost no less than 450 soldiers in Bakhmut alone. Why don't they just withdrawal already? The area they occupy is far too small to have so many soldiers gathered there. Still around 3,000 to 5,000 by most accounts. They are getting decimated by Russian Artillery. It is non-stop at this stage.
What would it take for the Ukrainian Army to mutiny? It is one thing to be taking horrible losses in a desperate struggle where command decisions are sensible. This is not the case with Ukraine. A Ukrainian soldiers life seems to have less value than an insect from what I have observed. We have seen signs of it. Refusal to be deployed to Bakhmut, Refusal to carry on the offensive in Kherson. Ukraine is utilizing enforcement units that will shoot their own soldiers if they leave their lines. I wonder how long they can keep that up. Stalin tried something similar during WWII. It is ultimately self-defeating and had to be abandoned. Eventually the soldiers will realize that there is more of us then there is of them and take appropriate measures.
A popular troll argument is that we keep hearing about the Russian victory but nothing happens. If they had the wit to read through this informative essay many of their arguments would be countered. There again western arm chair generals want instant gratification, something we are all guilty of to a degree, whereas it appears that the Russians just went about business, they play for real and not for optics.
Was unaware of the torture videos, seems we are back to the days of the Colosseum, with a lazy, ignorant class of sociopaths calling for the blood of others, regressive evolution I suppose. But there again perhaps it encapsulates why our societies are collapsing, a mental change that is cause rather than effect.
I suspect that the only way the attack to take Energodar was supposed to hold (600 troops on the wrong side of a big river) was to apply nuclear blackmail and also raise international outcries and hysteria that would even force US to intervene maybe?
I don't understand how some troops can be elite if they are not involved in combat. Regular troops holding on in Bakhmut for months must have more combat experience than any elite force that just trains...
Question: Does Russia have an equivalent to the "HIMARS" system? If so, does it really matter if Ukraine has 100K, 200K or 400K (mostly unprepared/overtaxed) troops to throw at any given offensive? Further, doesn't Russia also have the same or similar capabilities of knowing exactly where medium to large detachments of AFU troops are?
I suspect the Great Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a bit like the Great Russian Winter Offensive. Big arrows that never wound up happening.
What is your sense of actual casualties? I have seen the leaked docs showing anything from 17k to 71k Ukr casualties, but that just looks so light. Ritter and Macgregor have been throwing around up to 250k KIA for a while now, and Ursula 7 months ago said it was 100K.
Also, again in those docs, the RU deployments in Kherson and Zap seem really light, just a couple of tens of thousands of men. On the other hand, reading your abstract above of how forces are "decentralized", I am beginning to imagine what the modern battlefield looks like. Empty. Yet full.
I find that surprisingly few people in the West accept various motivations for Zelensky. Such as:
- He doesn't care about Ukr casualties
- He is trying his best to drag NATO into the war
- He is saying/doing/promising anything and everything as long as it gets him money/weapons/whatever
- He is not interested in peace
If anyone actually believed any 1, let alone all 4, of the points above, nobody would support him. Yet, to me, it is so obviously true, and i never had an opinion of the guy. Its just blatant. And, frankly, not unexpected. Since his priority is to ensure his own survivial - be it against the Russians or the right wing of his own parties, what else is he supposed to do? He can't win a stand-up fight against Russia, so he is doing what he needs to do. Just amazing that its not transparent.
Announce that all NATO EU countries that have provided the slightest weapon to UKRAINE have declared war on Russia and therefore become at midnight legitimate military, strategic, logistical and even civilian targets if necessary.
Result of such an announcement in the middle of the afternoon on a working day, according to Goldman's Sachs (zero hedge): immediate fall in the markets of 55 to 60%, i.e. tens of trillions vanished, banks on the ground, flight of populations from cities in panic, total collapse of eco activity, euro dollar fall, explosion of GOLD on the rise etc etc good telework ok, but the very rich and rich would especially take the first flight for a quiet country outside NATO EU.
Well done. We are at the nexus of reality vs. Western spin narrative now. The crux in the road. The West was looking for a "photo op" smooth exit from this debacle, and it is slowly creeping into the NATO consciousness that this will indeed not happen. What will happen is surrender on Russian terms. That is a factual inevitability. It is written in stone now. In the tablets. What happens in Ukraine from now on will be 100% on Russian terms. We discussed previously that the Russian Air Force would play a decisive role in the ending of this conflict. Well, it seems it has already happened. I have not heard of the FAB 3000, but if this is indeed being dropped on Ukrainian postions it is lights out. The FAB 1500 by itself does massive damage. The Ukrainians can shoot their wad with their" spring offensive", but they will be anilhated. NATO is no match for the Russians in their backyard. The stupidy and arrogance of NATO is pursuing this conflict and escalating is epic in its scope. I say all of this with the understanding that Russia has restrained itself in the damage it has inflicted so as to avoid NATO going totally insane. Russia is fighting with 100% confidence , resolve and capacity to prevail. And it will prevail on its terms. We are at the beginning of the end now. Less than 6 months to go.
You put into great detail what I was thinking today. I would agree that the AFU/NATO troop numbers are meaningless absent of any real capability to realize any militarily significant goal. It's not like they're on the highway to Moscow after beating up a few old tanks...
With respect to satellites, JDAMS, and even UAVs, why jam that hardware if you have the ability to feed dirty data streams into their GPS, or other sensors?
An incredible amount of information here. There’s much to digest. It’s amusing how most of the population if they follow this at all still believe in the upcoming spring offensive. There seems to be a growing unrest with the whole situation. Putin is evil doesn’t seem to cut it for a lot of people anymore. Thanks for another incredible job.
sure russian jamming
the preailing/root causes of jdam failures may not be russian jamming, other suspects: reliability, shoddy integration with the aircraft delivering the jdam, shoddy integration with the ordnance including fuse failure.
reliability, how many shipped kits were defects? jdam kits have been in 'stock' for years, all kinds of things happen, and the kits should have been inspected and function checked before shipping. then we should worry shipping damage such as jarring. jdam was a troubled program until there were more troubled programs like f-35.
the kits are designed to bolt on to a dumb/iron bomb, what are the fuse links for soviet bombs?
finally, the jdam is controlled from the cockpit, how good was the 'weapons control set up' for an old soviet mig?
a lot of ordnance has a dud rate and jdam may be suspect.
Have not had time to read it all, but I am concerned with the veracity of the part about Wagner. The US does not have a "Defense Ministry" or "Ministry of Defense" - so what gives there? Can't be a simple translation error and why would this information be being conveyed in a language other than English? Further, if it is coming from a British writer, why is everything else spelled in the Americanized form of English?
"US military experts are concerned about the effectiveness of the Wagner PMCs – a source in the US Defense Ministry said.
As DC Weekly writes experts of the Ministry of Defense conducted an in-depth analysis of the activities of the Wagner PMCs and came to the conclusion that no American, British or French similar structure can compare with their units."
Sorry but that looks highly suspect. Why would a rag called "DC Weekly" not know that there are no "ministries" in the USG?
Also I am unable to find any source by that name: https://www.google.com/search?q=dc+weekly&oq=dc+weekly&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l4j0i22i30l5.1527j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
--- More info needed, please.
This is another excellent piece!!
I’ll have study back through it a few more times
I’m incline to think Ukraine is pretty much done I think the State Department is preparing the media to declare victory for the west in Ukraine.
Then it will be bad bad China and poor pitiful Taiwan
The Western citizenry is perfectly conditioned for this type of propaganda tool switching from one big thing to the next.
Wonderful summary! Thanks for all your work. NYT should hang their heads in shame.
I can't understand Ukrainian strategy. Today they lost no less than 450 soldiers in Bakhmut alone. Why don't they just withdrawal already? The area they occupy is far too small to have so many soldiers gathered there. Still around 3,000 to 5,000 by most accounts. They are getting decimated by Russian Artillery. It is non-stop at this stage.
What would it take for the Ukrainian Army to mutiny? It is one thing to be taking horrible losses in a desperate struggle where command decisions are sensible. This is not the case with Ukraine. A Ukrainian soldiers life seems to have less value than an insect from what I have observed. We have seen signs of it. Refusal to be deployed to Bakhmut, Refusal to carry on the offensive in Kherson. Ukraine is utilizing enforcement units that will shoot their own soldiers if they leave their lines. I wonder how long they can keep that up. Stalin tried something similar during WWII. It is ultimately self-defeating and had to be abandoned. Eventually the soldiers will realize that there is more of us then there is of them and take appropriate measures.
A popular troll argument is that we keep hearing about the Russian victory but nothing happens. If they had the wit to read through this informative essay many of their arguments would be countered. There again western arm chair generals want instant gratification, something we are all guilty of to a degree, whereas it appears that the Russians just went about business, they play for real and not for optics.
Was unaware of the torture videos, seems we are back to the days of the Colosseum, with a lazy, ignorant class of sociopaths calling for the blood of others, regressive evolution I suppose. But there again perhaps it encapsulates why our societies are collapsing, a mental change that is cause rather than effect.
I suspect that the only way the attack to take Energodar was supposed to hold (600 troops on the wrong side of a big river) was to apply nuclear blackmail and also raise international outcries and hysteria that would even force US to intervene maybe?
I don't understand how some troops can be elite if they are not involved in combat. Regular troops holding on in Bakhmut for months must have more combat experience than any elite force that just trains...
Question: Does Russia have an equivalent to the "HIMARS" system? If so, does it really matter if Ukraine has 100K, 200K or 400K (mostly unprepared/overtaxed) troops to throw at any given offensive? Further, doesn't Russia also have the same or similar capabilities of knowing exactly where medium to large detachments of AFU troops are?
Stay the course ❤️🇷🇺💙
I suspect the Great Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a bit like the Great Russian Winter Offensive. Big arrows that never wound up happening.
What is your sense of actual casualties? I have seen the leaked docs showing anything from 17k to 71k Ukr casualties, but that just looks so light. Ritter and Macgregor have been throwing around up to 250k KIA for a while now, and Ursula 7 months ago said it was 100K.
Also, again in those docs, the RU deployments in Kherson and Zap seem really light, just a couple of tens of thousands of men. On the other hand, reading your abstract above of how forces are "decentralized", I am beginning to imagine what the modern battlefield looks like. Empty. Yet full.
I find that surprisingly few people in the West accept various motivations for Zelensky. Such as:
- He doesn't care about Ukr casualties
- He is trying his best to drag NATO into the war
- He is saying/doing/promising anything and everything as long as it gets him money/weapons/whatever
- He is not interested in peace
If anyone actually believed any 1, let alone all 4, of the points above, nobody would support him. Yet, to me, it is so obviously true, and i never had an opinion of the guy. Its just blatant. And, frankly, not unexpected. Since his priority is to ensure his own survivial - be it against the Russians or the right wing of his own parties, what else is he supposed to do? He can't win a stand-up fight against Russia, so he is doing what he needs to do. Just amazing that its not transparent.
Russian ultimate joker, non-lethal
Announce that all NATO EU countries that have provided the slightest weapon to UKRAINE have declared war on Russia and therefore become at midnight legitimate military, strategic, logistical and even civilian targets if necessary.
Result of such an announcement in the middle of the afternoon on a working day, according to Goldman's Sachs (zero hedge): immediate fall in the markets of 55 to 60%, i.e. tens of trillions vanished, banks on the ground, flight of populations from cities in panic, total collapse of eco activity, euro dollar fall, explosion of GOLD on the rise etc etc good telework ok, but the very rich and rich would especially take the first flight for a quiet country outside NATO EU.