362 Comments
deletedApr 12
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Are you a bot or something? Because it feels like you're spewing random nonsense without even remotely checking the facts.

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The US should

Not underestimate Russia and allies power

The Zionists controls the reserve currency and the 'west' can’t win a new arms race

Already USA's defense spending is nearly 50% of its budget

Its not sustainable

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deletedApr 12
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NATO must know Russia is coming.

It's only a matter of time.

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I have to admit that there's a little bit of me that looks forward to the spectacle of Nato troops running for their lives from the sons of the Red Army.

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deletedApr 12
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That's "stealth" jets, on the rare occasions that they can get off the ground.

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What will happen is US/NATO will run out of jets and airfields within weeks if not sooner.

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deletedApr 12
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NATO cant back down now

They are going in

NATO will have to decide if he wants a world war who I don’t think it has the stomach for

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deletedApr 12
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I don't think so. Russia has more weapons.

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Still borrowing your mummy's laptop I see. Go back to watching and masturbating over porn.

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deletedApr 11
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Get a good laptop.

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Slow internet connection? Install multiple video apps for playback redundancy?

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Should have been done a long time ago, along with a relentless SEAD campaign, then wrecking bridges, etc..

Question: is this a tacit admission that the Patriot system did in fact work as advertised? That is an honest question and I would love to be wrong.

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Some US insiders have said that the Patriot system has never worked, not even in Iraq against primitive Scud missiles....

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So I have read, MIT Professor Theodore Postol being a prominent example of a Patriot skeptic. He has forgotten more than I know about missile defense, and I'd like to believe his analysis, but the Patriots now are apparently destroyed or depleted, and the missiles are raining down in the areas where they once ostensibly protected.

Coincidence? I honestly do not know.

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>but the Patriots now are apparently destroyed or depleted, and the missiles are raining down

Aren't they were destroyed by the very same missiles?

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Apparently, if and to the extent destroyed and not depleted. Whether they worked in the meantime (or worked until they ran out of missiles) is the question.

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The Ukrainians are demanding provision of “seven” Patriots. To me that says Patriot batteries, not interceptor missiles, which are fired in pairs, and hundreds would be expended over the period of a month or two. Yeah I’m thinking they are all or mostly destroyed

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Last May a PATRIOT battery fired all 32 missiles in about 90 seconds and only managed to intercept Kiev. The cost was around $90 million and about 20% of a years production.

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Or maybe Putin didn't destroy those places before for humanitarian reasons.

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As far as I understand Patriots worked somewhat. Even did actually score some Kinzhal intercepts. Not very effective though. That’s what I mostly gather from one retired Russian colonel weekly summaries that I listen to. On one hand he is pretty sarcastic about Russian army, may be overly so, on another he is former air defense colonel so in this regard he should be most competent.

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Not sure about taking down Khinzal, though I am willing to believe they succeeded when emptying the magazine. Just must be frustrating to take down your enemies best missile just to hear a moped engine trundling towards you.

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It never intercepted a Khinzal... you guys are nuts

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No need to call anybody nuts. I have my doubts about it, but can believe that the stars of statistics might align if you throw an entire missile magazine on one target. But then a Shahed can just come in at walking speed and blow you up.

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"Intercepted" I wonder if a missile traveling at mach 10 ran into a cloud of debris (patriot shrapnel) what would happen.

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The Patriot does work BUT it is incredible expensive. That's where most opposition will come rom.

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Do you think Patriots were built during a time when the US had no enemy capable of doing much, so the systems were designed to address that and appear to work in that scenario. But during a relentless missile attack from a formidable enemy they fail?

Sort of "lowest common denominator" design.

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Supposedly these were earlier models, but I have not seen confirmation.

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Patriot wasn't made to intercept ordnance or missiles. It was made to shoot down aircraft. It can do that well enough, but like all US weapon systems, it is overpriced and over-complicated. The Russians seem to have the best understanding of how to design a weapon system: Affordable, mass producible, and good enough for the job on the ground.

Compare with Pentagon systems: Extravagantly expensive, bespoke quality, and perfect at the job that exists in war planner's brains. That is to say, war without the mud and rust.

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“Over complicated” indeed. One battery requires 90 trained crew..all Ukrainians, no doubt *wink*

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Of course, who wouldn't trust the most corrupt nation in Europe with a $1.1 billion system loaded with top secret gear?

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Only if your real intention is to get rid of your obsolete and ineffective Patriot's and have them replaced with newer models.

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In that case we should send every battery we have to the Bandera territories. Still won't solve the zero to few missile problem. Just very expensive targets to distract Russia.

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Well look who is in charge here in the US.

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Russian weapons are designed and produced so quickly and cheaply that they can afford to have dozens of them for special purposes. Like the "Unix tools philosophy": each tool does one thing as well as it can be done.

The opposite of the F-35.

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Russian weaponry are "fit for purpose" designed; US weaponry is designed for profit. That makes all the difference in the world.

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Apr 12·edited Apr 13

Back in the 90s Lindon McIntire produced a story for CBC TV News “The Fifth Estate” which showed how they succeeded in shooting down as few as zero scuds with the Patriot. That said, it has undergone continuous development over time as things do and there are at least 4 different types of interceptor missiles now. Conclusion: inconclusive.

As an aside, it’s interesting how the Fifth Estate video segment disappeared from the internet altogether a few years ago, perhaps as a result of some pressure from the neighbours.

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The LA Times story is still online about the PATRIOT definitely taking down a Tornado and a Hornet and a near miss for a second Hornet in March 2003 over Iraq. So the system has proven itself.

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Definitely proven itself in Ukraine!...LOL

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I particularly enjoy staring for hours at the pic of Klitschko posing with the glide bomb and everyone pretending it was a Khinzal.

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Why would you believe it? The Iraqis were throwing babies out of incubators in Kuwait and all.. and all their WMDs... 😆

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Jets are what the Patriot system is effective at striking. Missiles not so much.

The F35 does maximum Mach 1.6, probably only for brief periods with afterburners on. Patriot missiles are capable on paper of max speed Mach 3.5 which is ideal for jets because the defending missile needs to be faster than it's target. There is a Patriot interceptor variant (SkyCeptor) which is said to capable of Mach 5.5, but the Ukrainainas don't get the latest stuff, they are provided with mostly hardware out of mothballs. Anyway, the Kinzhal max speed is said to be Mach 10 and the Iskander Mach 5.9, so good luck scoring a hit with a Patriot interceptor.

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So you believe the LA times????

They guys on the ground that witnessed the patriot system in action report that it was effective only about 3% of the time.

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If so, how is it that they have been purportedly wiped out? It seems as though the opposite is true. If they were working as advertised then they would still be in business.

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The PATRIOT can't take down an Iskander or faster. Then there is that missile production problem. Each PATRIOT missile is handcrafted with love, so it takes much longer to get a missile to where it needs to be. Literally, years much longer.

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I think you mean "handcrafted with graft"

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And then you have to worry that once launched, it won't turn on you.

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Considering how many strikes from non-hypersonic weapons got through Kiev's air defenses (as seen on civilian videos) even when they weren't crying about having no Patriots, I don't think it was working as advertised. It likely mitigated some damage (a lot less than Ukrainian propaganda lets on) by shooting down Geran drones and some of the slower missiles, but by no means did it keep Russia from fully hitting its objectives.

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The only two times that I know a PATRIOT worked as advertised was in March, 2003 when a UK Tornado and a US Hornet were knocked out over Iraq. I think the $1 million missiles did have some success taking down a few $80 drones the Houthi launched into Saudi Arabia. Just haven't seen a video of one doing so.

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Friendly fire? Tia

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Apr 12·edited Apr 12

How do you know this? Did you launch the patriot's missles yourself? How do you know a US jet didn't just shoot them down and the pentagon was just trying to get money for a missle defense system? I wouldn't trust anything the US government says... in fact I would believe the opposite unless I saw empirical evidence myself to confirm it. I would guess they must accidentally tell the truth on occasion 😆

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Congressional hearings, pilot testimony, PATRIOT operators testimony.

Friendly fire incidents probably are not the best way to get more money for a disfunctional missile system.

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I’m sure the patriots (when they work and with proper training) can do shoot down some missiles. They are too expensive to use for Shaheeds and no chance (as in zero) they can catch Kinzhal or Zircon.

The air campaign Russia executes to put them out of service is multilayered and they have them figured out. If they can see them they’re as good as dead.

Then the gun begins 😉

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The former spokesman (he was finally fired) for the Bandera airforce, Yuri Ignat, said that Ukraine doesn't have the ability to take down an SS 26 Iskander. That's code for "we definitely can't intercept Khinzals."

Was it a test run for an Onyx or Zircon a couple of weeks ago? By the time it was detected, two seconds to impact.

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Yeah that guy was trying to be honest that's why he got the axe

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He lasted 10 months longer than I thought he would after his first bout of honesty.

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the war in Ukraine is well and truly lost, yet NATO and the USA persist

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You are probably right, but never discount the desperate ineptitude of NATO to decide it needs to intervene directly.

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Intervene with what? Thet dont have the manpower or ammo stocks needed for it! Every military expert worth their salt gives any possible Nato formation 3-4 weeks of survival in Ukraine.

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To paraphrase Barrack Hussein Obama; "Never underestimate NATO's ability to fuck it up." al-Quaida in the 80s, Hezbollah has an office in Baghdad, Libya has slave auctions, Hamas was stood up and financed by Israel and US in the 80s, daesh in Syria, nearly twenty years in Afghanistan, ISIS-K, the SMO. We got a forty-some years long record of incompetence and the past is a prologue.

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Fight to the last Ukrainian.

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Hauptmann Verhofstad should have lifted his right arm when he stopped ranting...

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Verhofstadt or Verafstoot, meaning in English repugnance,…..another ambitious Napoleon

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Thank you Simplicius!

https://youtu.be/rQnXo2HMriQ?feature=shared

10 years ago Verhofstadt was at maidan.

See The last image on the video his Dutch friend raises his right arm.

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It looks to me as if it's Verhhofstadt himself giving the NAZI salute, after telling the demonstrators to overthrow the legitimate democratically-elected government in the name of "European values" and "democracy".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQnXo2HMriQ&t=275s

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RemovedApr 13
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I did some research, it is van Baalen a Dutch VVD politician who was also chairman of the International Liberals.

He also seems to have asked the military in Nicaragua if they supported the government and had to go out of the country and in Taiwan he also seems to have had the highest medal for his merits....

In his youth he would have sung Horst Wessel song at the university. He passed away and was a close friend and party colleague of Mark Rutte, the intended new NATO chief....

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Yes, I stand corrected. I had jumped forward to the end to see the salute, and missed that they had changed positions in the interval I didn't watch.

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Hauptsturmführer Verhofstad.

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Hochverratdstad. For anyone speaking German, a word play meaning 'high treason'.

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Apr 11·edited Apr 12

On the positive side, all those now-unemployed Centernergo employees can be retrained as Ukrainian infantry.

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Love me some gallows humor. I mean, what else can we do at this point?

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Tabular, visual, and textual breakdowns and summaries of this post by Simplcius The Thinker:

https://open.substack.com/pub/complexiathesinker/p/llm-over-sitrep-41124-zelensky-in

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What an enormous compliment to Simplicious. Not only did you, a Western operative, read his article, you went to all the trouble of running it through an AI to get the result: "This is not a Western Propaganda Outlet".

The amusing thing is that you are so lost, you actually manage to believe that:

a. This is news to anyone else reading this,

b. That this is "bad",

c. That Westerners should feel "ashamed" at reading honest accounts that do not correspond to Western media or elite narratives.

Well, I could write more, but it would seem, if I were honest, that "PISS THE FECK OFF AND DON'T COME BACK" would summarise it nicely.

Not that you will, at least some part of your salary will come being here and convincing people that reading Simplicious is even more important than they had realised, because Western Disintel is so obviously rather energised by his works.

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I was going to ask, "why the rancor over a fairly benign analysis?" But then I read the last few sections and understood.

It's an interesting MO and common these days: present some bland facts, establish a bit of credibility, then end with the incredulous moneyshot that only the weakest minds would continue to nod along with and accept. Reprehensible, wasteful, but if I were Simplicius I would be encouraged. You only get this type of attention when your work is meaningful and hitting the mark.

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The cynical prompts, LLMs, and AIs are fairly effective in generating cynical outcomes, such as reviews. We have the ability to manage the cynicism of the LLMs and prompts used to identify propaganda. The reviews obtained typically present an equal mix of pros and cons. Occasionally, conflicting viewpoints are combined in a single propaganda review.

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Could your prompts/LLMs/AIs potentially summarize your comment into something coherent?

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1. Cynical prompts, LLMs, and AIs are proficient at generating cynical outcomes, such as reviews.

2. We can control the cynicism of the LLMs and prompts used for propaganda detection.

3. A set of LLM reviews for a specific text usually has an equal blend of positive and negative feedback reviews from a particular point of view.

4. Sometimes, contradictory viewpoints are blended in a single LLM-propaganda review.

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We used the following prompt.

-------------

Make the following paragraph coherent; give a list of simple statements:

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Dammit Matt don't make me go read it, too!! Lol

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The Sinker is an AI stinker.

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You think people will read “AI” and just immediately go “It must be right”.

Dude - we all know the current capability of AI and how training affects bias.

Who are you fooling? 😉

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We are simply attempting to "fool" human brains into comprehending the content of Simplicius The Thinker's posts more effectively.

Have you noticed an improvement in your knowledge of Simplicius' post after reading our LLM summaries?

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Sorry. I couldn't be bothered.

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I generally use a human brain to peruse posts by Simplicius, and that's been working quite well. However, simply scanning the LLM summary, particularly the last few sections, made it quite apparent that propagandists are concerned about the insights and accurate analysis Simplicius delivers.

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Thank you for your feedback!

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RemovedApr 12
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"However, simply scanning the LLM summary, particularly the last few sections, [...]" -- We believe that the reference is to the sub-sections within the last section titled "Hidden and Propaganda Messages." However, these subsections are being perceived as standalone sections, overlooking the introductory explanations provided for that section. With this assumption in mind, we adjusted the "heading level" of those sub-sections, categorizing them as sub-sub-sections.

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Your last bit showed the real goal of the "project".

If the goal was to aid in comprehension the mind map graphic would have been enough.

But you didn't and now you're found out ...

The issue you have here is the people who read this stack are TOO smart. We've seen it all before a million times and so your efforts seem primitive and easily understood.

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Mind-mapping is just one of the techniques we use to expand the mind. We are pleased that you find it helpful!

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Sir, there are women and children here, please zip up your pants and go masturbate somewhere else.

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I don't believe in the suppression of free speech among humans, but I remain to be convinced that a self-declared bot with obvious propagandistic designs against the host is entitled to the same consideration.

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To be fair, it should be noted that we consistently apply the prompt for identifying propaganda messages to all texts or video transcripts that we focus on.

For example, consider the slip opinion No. 23-219, “Trump vs. Anderson, et al.” of the Supreme Court of the United States:

https://complexiathesinker.substack.com/p/llm-over-trump-vs-anderson

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It is clear that President Putin is tired of Zelensky dragging his feet on replacing coal and gas as energy sources. Now Zelensky can start installing the renewable power sources such as wind and solar. As a matter of fact he can invite Saint Greta to install the first wind turbine.

Hurrah for President Putin's drive for Ukraine to reach Net Zero!!!

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>Net Zero

They should be careful what they are wishing for

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Biden can't afford another Afghanistan fiasco. He will force them to keep fighting until after the election.

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RemovedApr 12
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US forces never had to face elite German forces as they had been pretty much wiped out by the Soviets at that time. The forces the Americans faced were severely weakened, without ammo, without fuel, without competent leadership - and even then, the Americans had a difficult time against them. Had Germany not invaded the USSR and Americans were forced to face the full strength of the German military, I have little doubt that the Americans would have been obliterated.

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Yes my guess too.

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Has he thought it through? If he gets re-elected and things get rapidly worse - and then it turns out things were already getting worse before the election, and he didn't tell anyone...

Can you sing, "We'll hang Joe Biden on a sour apple tree?"

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Doesn't matter, if he wins he'll get his second and final term and will just hide even more so than he does already. The vast majority of Americans are sheep and will not do anything about Biden nor the people who really call the shots in the white house. Simple facts.

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I don't say this lightly, because I'm aging and have kids, but the only way things get better in the US and Europe is if the current system collapses. Switching politicians won't work as they are all corrupt and useless. So a Biden "victory" in November may be a better results as it brings collapse ever nearer.

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I don't believe anyone who is elected at this point will be able to have any significant effect on the end of America or the timing of such an end. It is inevitable and accelerating. What people need to be doing is not trying to save America (that is no longer possible) but forming alliances and developing plans for the collapse.

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I couldn't have written it better myself. All the energy spent trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again would be better spent on building new alternatives from the ground up.

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The dems control the media and can shape the narrative to their advantage so that it's never their fault.

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Actually, I think the U.S. knows it's heading for a recession at minimum, if not outright depression, and wants Trump in office to take the blame.

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Hard to blame Trump for Bidenomics, illegal immigration and the regional and local bank failures coming this summer.

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The immigration part is correct. The rest will depend on just when the crash comes. I'm sure TPTB will try to delay it until next year.

The real question is whether they push us into a serious hot war. That may well tie Trump's hands.

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MSM: hold my beeer!

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I don't think Biden is calling the timing on this anymore - Putin is. And he's gonna time the Ukraine knockout so it hurts Joe most.

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RemovedApr 12
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"Never interrupt an enemy making a mistake."

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RemovedApr 13
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Speaking of Sunzi, I was reminded of the little-quoted first chapter of Art of War where he talks about the qualities of the (winning) General, and factors in war which include "The MORAL LAW causes the people to be in complete accord with their ruler, so that they will follow him regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger."

The incredible segment on the tank factory exemplifies this principle. Sad to see how far from that we are in the West. Apparently "maximizing profits" is not going to be a winning strategy in the long run.

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RemovedApr 14
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Even FJB can't force dead men to fight, no matter how important to his election campaign.

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He can force them to vote. I'm sure forcing them to fight would be child's play.

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Being a master of fraud does not a god make, though FJB probably thinks it does.

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Patriots will be forever remembered in a movie clip depicting rapid shooting of 32 missiles in a few minutes, and getting destroyed shortly afterwards in a counterbang. They have showed themselves deadly against big bodied airplanes, dangerous against jet fighters, but Russians have found a method to deplete and destroy Patriots

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Russians send numerous Poundland drones into Patriot territory to attract million dollar missiles to locate the Patriots and then follow that up with Iskanders to wipe them out (assuming of course the the Patriot missiles don't turn on their own and wipe them out first).

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Teresa, last week I wrote a poem called Teresa a woman i med in Trinidad 40 years ago

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Does your wife know about that?

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Puting things in perspective the only thing that cames to my mind is that RUSSIA WINS THIS WAR AGAINST UKRAINE/NATO. That's all!

There's nothing else to tell.

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Helll hath no fury like an impotent NATO defeated. Putins real challenge will be ramping out of Ukraine without NATO starting WW3 out of spite.

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