SITREP 3/4/2024: Rifts in Bibi's Camp as Gaza War Drags
We haven’t done an update on the Israeli situation in a while. The war there has grown into a kind of stasis, with Israel hoping to ward off as much negative international attention as possible by slow-rolling a low-intensity grinding phase, all the while reportedly prepping for a Lebanese operation.
There have continued to be outcries of protest from major Western nations, yet no one has been able to actually take any action against Israel for its wanton murder and genocide, which it continues to commit daily. The same goes for Arab nations who insist on making ultimatums or veiled threats against Israel, without ever following through on anything:
Several Arab Nations including the United Arab Emirates are beginning to Restrict the United States from using Airbases within their Countries as well as their Airspace for conducting Retaliatory Strikes on Iranian-Backed Groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; the UAE which is Home to Al Dhafra Air Base, a Major Base for the U.S. Air Force in the Middle East, has reportedly done this to appear to their Population like they are not “Against Iran” and “Too Close with the West and Israel.”
Listen to the Israeli spokesman below as she tries to extemporize on the spot about the ethnic cleansing Israel intends to carry out on the Gazans heading toward Rafah crossing:
US HAS PROPOSED A DRAFT UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 'CALLING FOR A TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE IN THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR AND OPPOSING A MAJOR ISRAELI GROUND OFFENSIVE IN RAFAH IN SOUTHERN GAZA' - SOURCES
One of the issues with the proposed ceasefire is that Israel wants to exchange a bunch of random Palestinian teenagers they nabbed off the street and erroneously labeled ‘terrorists’. Hamas refuses this, as they want their actual named prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages. Israel has classically ‘cheated’ by simply kidnapping children off the streets and putting them into perpetual extrajudicial imprisonment for bargaining purposes.
One of the deeper aspects to follow is the economic damage that continues unwinding Israel’s economy. One commentator points out:
Israeli labour force is 4.37m. 300k have been removed from the labour force, so less than 7% - yet GDP has contracted by 20%. This goes beyond labour issues. Imports down 42%. Maybe the blockade has succeeded and is cratering the entire economy?
The country’s GDP slumped by a seasonally adjusted 19.4% in the final three months of 2023, which was the first quarterly drop in Israel’s economy in two years.
The contraction was significantly worse than both the Bloomberg and Reuters consensus forecast of a 10% decline. The hostilities paralyzed businesses, prompted evacuations and a record call-up of reservists, which removed roughly 8% of the country’s workforce, according to economists.
The RT article goes on to say that Israel’s spending ballooned by almost 90% while investment took a huge hit:
Investment in Israel took the biggest blow, plunging by 70%, while private consumption, a major driver of economic growth, dropped by 27% in the fourth quarter. Public consumption plummeted by almost 90%, data showed.
Not to mention that the country suffered its first ever sovereign credit rating downgrade:
Earlier this month, the international ratings agency Moody’s lowered Israel’s credit rating, which was the country’s first-ever sovereign downgrade. Israel’s rating was lowered from A1 to A2 and its outlook kept at ‘negative’ due to what the ratings agency believes are the political and fiscal risks stemming from the country’s continuing war with Hamas.
Israel continues experiencing hardships—just as of this writing there are new reports about a possible ‘mass casualty’ event with 15 Israeli soldiers killed.
Yesterday Yoav Gallant stated:
YOAV GALLANT OFFICIAL STATEMENT: “We are paying a very high price in our ranks...The costs we incur in terms of the numbers of deaths and injuries are very high.”
“We have not witnessed such a war in 75 years, and this calls on us to approve amendments to the conscription law.”
And a new report from Wall Street Journal describes the frustration of battling Hamas in the southern Khan Younis sector:
As you can see above, even the Israeli military is starting to become demoralized and disillusioned, wondering if they can ever truly win.
The article goes on to state that likely far fewer of Hamas have been killed than Israel claims, and also that Hamas can “recruit new people” on the fly—which means even the ones killed could have very well already been replaced.
The WSJ article ends on this note:
“We’re having a lot of success inside Gaza. The question is what is the plan for the day after,” said the sergeant. “I don’t think there is any clear idea.”
And Bibi may have very well answered this question recently:
The plan proposes to virtually turn Gaza into a real live concentration and re-education camp, even more so than it already was:
The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu finally proposed his Gaza Strip “Day After” Plan earlier today to the Israeli Security Cabinet which will only begin after the total destruction of Hamas alongside the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and includes: -
- Freedom of activity by the IDF within the Gaza Strip.
- The complete disarmament and demobilization of the Gaza Strip.
- Total security control by Israel over the West Bank. - Partial/total closure of the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.
- Establishment of a security zone between southern Israel and the Gaza Strip.
- Creation of a de-radicalization program which will be implemented in all Palestinian institutions.
- Removal of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency from the Palestinian territories.
- The rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip once demilitarization is complete and de-radicalization has begun, with funding only coming from Israeli-approved countries and organizations.
But more on this later.
At the same time, Bibi also announced that he will totally resist the creation of any Palestinian state, which means the two-state solution will never come to pass under his rule:
Additionally, there are increased signals that Israel intends to carry out a mass new operation in Rafah, at the Egyptian border, reportedly on Ramadan, March 10th:
Israeli Knesset member Benny Gantz, who is also a member of Israel’s war cabinet, said over the weekend that the invasion of Rafah will begin on March 10, the Muslim holy day that marks the start of Ramadan, if the Israeli hostages held by Hamas are not released.
“The world must know — and Hamas leaders must know — that if by Ramadan the hostages are not home, then the fighting will continue, including in Rafah,” Gantz said at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations over the weekend. - Sputnik
With CIA head Burns even being dispatched a couple weeks ago in attempt to smooth things out and keep the powder keg from blowing:
Meanwhile, CNN confirms that a new Lebanese operation is on the cards:
CNN citing US officials : Following a series of intelligence briefings, the Biden administration now believes Israel is likely to launch a ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon this spring.
Which happened to coincide with a new video claiming to show a column of Israeli tanks and self-propelled howitzers heading toward the northern border with Lebanon. As well as claims appearing today that Hezbollah has earlier thwarted some kind of IDF cross-border assault attempt—which, if true, would make it the first such direct escalatory clash:
In response to this continued slow-creep of escalations, the Biden administration is scrambling to finalize a ceasefire, with various reports claiming a deal is very close:
One rumor breakdown claims:
In a significant diplomatic move, the United States has put forward a proposal aimed at de-escalating tensions on the Lebanese front, particularly concerning the situation with Gaza.
Early this morning, Beirut received an American communication detailing "realistic" suggestions brought forth by envoy Hochstein, intended for Lebanese stakeholders.
The U.S. proposition includes maintaining Hezbollah forces' presence along the border while mandating the withdrawal of medium and long-range weapons to areas north of the Litani River, effectively cooling tensions immediately on the Lebanese front. In exchange for these security adjustments, the United States is offering urgent economic aid to the Lebanese government.
Additionally, it is pushing for a resolution to Lebanon's presidential vacuum, the initiation of negotiations for land border demarcation based on Lebanese-Syrian maps, and the commencement of gas exploration activities within three months in all legally available blocks under existing operation tenders.
It’s worth considering that both sides seek a face-saving way out and that part of Israel’s chutzpah regarding the Lebanese invasion could be attributed to hard-balling the U.S. and co. into putting more pressure on Hamas/Hezbollah to make favorable concessions for a workable ceasefire, rather than an actual intent to invade.
However, there remains good reason to believe that the hardline factions do fully intend to carry out the invasion no matter what, but it’s not certain their side will win the power struggle as there are immense pressures from the U.S. and international community to stop the war.
One thing is clear: there is a large amount of internal dissent and opposition.
Today, rumors spread that several high ranking IDF members ‘resigned’ in protest, though Israel was quick to refute the rumors as fake, while admitting some of the named officials are making long-planned departures after supposedly ‘completing their contract’. However, the rumor that Daniel Hagari was among them does appear to be fake.
The latest Spectator article written by a senior Haaretz columnist gives a detailed account further elaborating on Bibi’s ‘day after’ plan:
It notes the frustration of Israeli generals:
Israeli generals have been grumbling for four and a half months that they need a clear strategy so they can plot out the next stages of the war and its aftermath. The 12 principles for the ‘Day after Hamas’ give them almost nothing to work with. This is not to say that the generals are in favour of ending the war immediately: they want to continue striking at what remains of Hamas’s military formations in Gaza, while pressuring its leadership to release the Israeli hostages snatched on 7 October. However they also need a realistic plan of action they can stick to – and, vitally, one which has an exit strategy.
It goes on to state that Netanyahu’s plan has no such exit strategy in mind:
Netanyahu’s paper contains no exit strategy. It doesn’t stand up to even the lightest scrutiny, which is why there was no weekend press conference. Neither was the ‘plan’ presented to the Joe Biden administration, who are anxiously trying to push Israel towards a temporary ceasefire agreement, to be agreed before the month of Ramadan. The idea is that this ceasefire agreement will include the release of some of the 134 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza.
On Monday night, Biden said he hopes the ceasefire will be secured by the end of the weekend: ‘My national security adviser [Jake Sullivan] tells me that we’re close, we’re close, we’re not done yet. My hope is by next Monday we’ll have a ceasefire.’
The author very astutely points out that Bibi’s plan appears to be to retain an ambiguous ‘status quo’ that does just enough to appease all sides to keep them from rebelling, without giving full satisfaction to anyone:
But continuing a low-level state of war for the foreseeable future – with vague targets that can never be realised – works well for him. It provides him with forceful soundbites promising ‘total victory’.
He finishes with:
Netanyahu’s rivals are aware of this terrible stalemate as well. A senior member of National Unity, the party led by Benny Gantz – who agreed at the start of the war to join an emergency coalition on a temporary basis – said this week: ‘This is an awful government with extreme ministers and a weak Prime Minister. We have to leave it. But we can’t leave it. If we’re not there, who will push for a hostage agreement? The public doesn’t want us to leave the government because they’re scared of the thought of Netanyahu and the far-right leading the country on their own.’
Gantz will be making a visit to meet Kamala Harris regarding the ceasefire—an unsanctioned trip that reportedly has Netanyahu furious, according to Mideast Eye:
A senior figure close to Netanyahu told Haaretz newspaper that the leader did not sanction the meeting.
"The prime minister made it clear to Gantz last night that he does not approve of his trip to Washington. Any official trip abroad by a minister that is not private but rather in an official capacity requires approval from the prime minister," the senior figure was quoted as saying.
Analyst Elijah Magnier sounds off on Gantz’ motivations for undermining Bibi:
Senior U.S. Official are reporting that Israel has Agreed to a 6-Week Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip which will include a Release of Israeli Hostages and Palestinian Prisoners, but that they are awaiting a Response to the Ceasefire from Hamas.
Great news: Benny Gantz & Gadi Eisenkot, the 2 war cabinet ministers, r meeting with top officials in the #US. For the 1st time, it is not the US embassy that is responsible for a coup d'état, but Washington itself, which is directly involved in the change of power in #Israel.
In summary: it seems that Netanyahu is trying to have his cake and eat it too. Ostensibly he wants to ‘root out’ and destroy Hamas, but at the same time fears doing so would force the inevitability of creating a Palestinian state—as there would no longer be any real excuse not to allow it, should Hamas be undeniably eliminated.
The only connective tissue which ties it all together is Israel’s overriding longterm goal of ethnically cleansing all Palestinians from the land Israel believes it has divine right to. With secondary goals revolving around opportunistically utilizing the conflict to either weaken Iran’s hand to buy itself time, or outright embroil Iran in a wider war with the U.S. which can maintain Israel’s center gravity at the heart of the geopolitical great game in the Middle East.
However, it does seem that, upon realizing the total expulsion of Palestinians will not be allowed by the international community, Netanyahu’s Plan B has reverted to merely creating a fully militarily occupied zone in Gaza, under even more brutal control than it already endures.
In many ways, Israel is a parasitic leech that lives and thrives off of the strategy of tension in the region, collecting huge war chests of annual military “aid” for its eternal protection from the perceived phantom threats it itself foments, instigates, and cultivates. Netanyahu wants to continue playing this long game while reaping all the benefits—but for once, the risks are becoming too grave for Israel’s slavish sponsors.
The Houthis have continued to be a major thorn in the Empire’s side, now reportedly having damaged the undersea cables which had long been hinted at:
Not to mention that they continue hitting ships, like this new one today, which managed to allegedly put out the fire caused by a missile strike and continue hobbling along toward its port:
On a humorous note, by the way, Russia has been accused of responsibility for the undersea cable severing:
Check the mindblowing hypocrisy of this article. It essentially excuses the Nord Stream attacks because “any nation” could have done it, which means: “Move along, nothing to see here.”
But the cable-cutting is no dilettante’s work, the author propounds. Only Russia could have had the chops to muster the dastardly deed—or so goes his faultless logic. He must be a local legend at Clue.
In light of the continued pressure U.S. faces from the Houthis, there is increased worry of the unsustainability of the campaign.
The Hill writes:
More than two months of direct fighting with the Houthis has heavily taxed the U.S. military, which is spending a significant amount of money to take down cheap drones, launch retaliatory strikes and defend against rebels who are, in turn, shooting down pricey American drones.
In most cases, the U.S. is launching $2 million defense missiles to stop $2,000 Houthi drones, a discrepancy that the Yemeni rebel group has noted in its statements mocking Washington.
Some have corrected the above in that this assumes theyr’e using the cheaper SM-2 missiles, when in reality they’re also using SM-6s, which are apparently closer to $5M each.
The article also notes that the Houthis have now taken down three $32M U.S. Predator drones, for a combined nearly $100M in losses there alone.
It has resulted in desperate congressmen, like Senator Angus King below, to somewhat comically beg the U.S. to switch to using ‘laser weapons’ to cut the cost disparity. Watch and laugh:
Yep, lasers—that will definitely defeat the Houthis! Only a hidebound imperialist stooge could possibly entertain such arrogant delusions.
Lastly, developments have continued to push talks of U.S.’ long-planned withdrawals from Iraq and the Middle East:
Two days ago Sputnik reported on a new such round:
ANTALYA, Turkiye (Sputnik) - Iraq and the United States continue their negotiations about the possible withdrawal of the international coalition forces from Iraqi soil, but no final decision or schedule has been agreed upon so far, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Mohammed Hussein told Sputnik.
"The talks with the US regarding the presence or the absence of US troops or the coalition forces on Iraqi territory continue," Hussein said on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
When asked whether any schedule had been drawn up, the top Iraqi diplomat repeated that the "talks continue."
Apparently the Iraqis are awaiting a kind of report from the U.S. side—presumably to outline details and schedule, one would surmise—so that they can study it and issue their own response. One can further assume the U.S. is deliberately slow-rolling this as usual, but the pressure will continue forcing their hand, as Iran will steadily raise the temperature gauge in the Red Sea and elsewhere.
One other brief note on this:
Some have wondered why all the Houthi attacks have not managed to bring down a U.S. or allied warship in the way the Ukrainians have done against Russia with their naval drones. Astute analysts have pointed out that the Houthis could in fact easily do so via saturation attack, but they have chosen deliberately not to. The reason is: escalation management.
As the above conversation outlines, there’s a reason the Houthis have fired one or two small missiles at a time at U.S. ships. Clearly, they’re capable of firing salvos larger than that. But to outright sink an American warship would leave American elites and politicians no choice than to wage a much larger war in order to save face. Houthis—and Iran by extension—don’t need that: they like it just fine conducting their slow-boil of the Western frog, seasoning it at their own leisure, to taste.
In some ways, it’s the same reason why Ukraine smartly avoids mass casualty strikes in Moscow, major missile attacks on the Kremlin, nuclear power plants, etc.—discounting the small ‘showy’ threatening strikes nearby. They know it could be suicide as it would risk Moscow declaring actual war on Ukraine, which could throw out the ‘velvet-gloved’ approach and leave Ukraine in ruins very quickly.
Also, as a final mention, noteworthy is the fact that if Israel were to go to war against Lebanon in the near future, it could be the final nail in the coffin for Ukraine. Out of the paltry 30,000 or so monthly artillery shells the U.S. currently produces, about 10,000 of them have gone to Israel each month thus far—40k since October. A protracted war against Hezbollah would require massive artillery armaments, and given that Israel is the U.S.’ true golden calf, its surging artillery needs would unquestionably be prioritized over those of Ukraine, leaving the AFU’s provisioning gravely in the lurch.
As a postscript, Israel has shot itself in the foot by virtually declaring itself an enemy of Russia this week, after a provocative harangue by Israel’s unhinged UN Rep, Gilal Erdan:
This was followed by another Israeli lawmaker declaring that Israel will take a much more ‘aggressive’ stance against Russia, and will escalate to provide more kinds of military aid to Ukraine:
Business Insider was less coy:
This is further indication of Israel’s totally oblivious exceptionalism: they believe, even in the foundering position they’re in, that they retain impunity in lashing out in anger at Russia for its perceived support of Palestine. No one has informed Israel that hubris and mania mix like milk and alcohol. Israel little understands the existential danger it’s in, and just who they’re making an enemy of. With every recent blundering, buffoonish step, Israel has brought itself one step closer to the edge of the abyss.
As a final evocation of this blissful ignorance born of decades of entitlement, I leave you this enlightening note from a journalist specializing in Israeli-Palestinian relations:
There was a line in a Hebrew news article yesterday that I can't stop thinking about. US officials told @barakravid that in every conversation in recent weeks they've been warning Israel that it is responsible for the humanitarian disaster taking place in Gaza.
"The senior US official said he was dumbfounded by the response he got from the Israelis: 'They asked me, why is that our problem?' he said. 'I told them they don't understand the situation they're in."
The thing is, Israel has always challenged the US and the world to put their money where their mouth is, and Israel has almost always won that game of chicken.
The stakes are different now but my sense is that most Israelis don't get that either. At this point nothing but cutting off the cash and bombs and UN vetoes could even begin to impart upon them the levels of shock and disbelief and horror with which the world has been watching for months. Shock and disbelief and horror not only at what Israel is doing but at their own governments for allowing it to happen. For not stopping it.
The thing is, nothing will happen and no consequences will be wrought until one man, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., decides that enough is enough. That moment should have come months ago but its unacceptable tardiness only makes it more urgent that it happen today.
Let's be clear, we're long past the point of a ceasefire being enough. There needs to be an international protection force in Gaza — to protect Palestinians from Israel, to ensure they don't die of starvation, to allow the world to deliver critical aid, to make sure that Palestinians who have fled can return to their homes, and to make sure the Israeli army doesn't stay in Gaza, or ever come back.
That should be the new starting point for discussions of "the day after." And the day after must be tomorrow.
Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: Tip Jar
A 'War with Lebanon' would mean the Zionist entity's Ignoble End courtesy of tens of thousands of SRBMs, which (as Syed Hasan Nasrallah put it Years Ago) would send it 'Back to the Stone Age.'
Netanyahu may be a Genocidal Whack-job ... but even he is astute & politically savvy enough to know that if 'Israel' ceases to exist as an entity... he too, likewise, will cease to be. Therefore, 'Israel' at present can only rely on him... for anyone else in leadership would launch the suicidal War mentioned earlier, which would destroy the Zionist entity entirely, once & for all.
Hamas won't go for a ceasefire without a massive phased prisoner exchange, a permanent ceasefire and a guaranteed, armed, Palestinian state. No political faction in Israel will agree to this. So there's nothing to negotiate. An all out war against Hezbollah won't be protracted. It will be over in a month. Hezbollah doesn't have 150,000 missiles, 100,000 fighters and miles of tunnels to defend Lebanon. It has them to definitively end Israel in its current Zionist form. As Nasrallah has said, the next war will not be in Lebanon, it will be in Israel. Carpet bomb Beirut and Hez wipes Haifa off the map. Bomb it again, and there goes Tel Aviv. Do the Jews have the stomach for that kind of tit for tat? A couple of 100 thousand Palestinians in Gaza may tragically die in the meantime, but Israel is going to be crushed. Listen to them. Nasrallah and the Hamas and Houthi spokesmen are positively jaunty. They smile, they laugh, they mock, they tease. Because they know where this is going, and they know where it ends. It ends with the end of the vilest of all nations. They don't want or need an off-ramp. They're not looking to save face. They're in it to win it. And win it they will.