Wave after wave of disinformation campaigns being waged by both sides. We are neck deep in propaganda and just junk "news". The bottom line is that there is NO WAY Ukraine will win anything of any significance in the next 6 months, and the realities on the ground point to a complete Russian victory, at least to the Dnieper by mid-summer. There is a tediousness to all the junk information circulating and the focus on minutia day to day. Putin and Shoigu look very happy. Biden and the NATO crowd and their boy Zelensky do not look or act happy at all. The USA is showing mighty stress and strain and staring strategic defeat and utter humiliation right in the face. The last 6 weeks has been one Russian bitch slap to the USA after the other. The USA is entering the last phase in its collapse.
I do wonder about Wagner boss mans numbers. If theres 1000 tanks parked outside Dennys waiting to get breakfast hes so sure about then maybe bomb one or something?
Im sure a lot of what he says is psych ops though.
I wish we got info about the nato bunker, these recent glide bomb attacks, the drone recovery etc but no ones going to announce such things until far into the future.
With regard to Poland's delusions of grandeur, take note of these articles on how Poland's entire army was obliterated by the Russians in FIVE DAYS in a war game run by the Poles themselves!
Wargame Study Shows Polish Armed Forces Obliterated in Just 5 Days
Also people should watch Scott Ritter's interview with Garland Nixon (along with Andrei Martyanov) the other day - Ritter absolutely trashes the possibility of either Poland, NATO or even the US actually being able to do anything in Ukraine effectively.
THE UKRAINE CRISIS - WITH SCOTT RITTER AND ANDREI MARTYANOV - VOLUME TWO
Fabulous article. The information about Poland is disturbing, as it seems to confirm that Poland will be the next US proxy in its war against Russia. I had no idea about the size and cost of the US Keyhole satellites. Maybe the US can build 6 more with the $2 trillion military budget! Much more important that dealing with crumbling US infrastructure, homelessness, poverty, despair, rampant drug use . . . much better to inflict unlimited pain abroad in the name of "freedom and democracy".
I learnt in the past few decades that the West always under estimate Russia's capabilities and strategies, the main gap is the aspect of time....Russians are patient and diligent, and the West got used to win by air strikes and total war against populations, and when we see what it is happening in the disappearing Ukraine is a Russian method of controlling the initiatives, and that takes account strategic retreating, bombing the hell of the front line and troop gathering in the rear, usually using huge ammount of artillery....that grind ukrops slowly, daily...this is what demilitarization is all about. I am not saying here that the Ukro-nazis would not be able to unleash a desperate counter offensive in Artyomovsk region, they can and they will, but Russia is controlling the initiative, so....about the time of the supposed famous and boasted by all in the rotten Western MSM....Russia can and may unleash a serious offensive in another critical region inside the borderland...
I truly believe we are in the crossroad of this special military operation, ukrops are losing something between 300-600 KIA daily, once this rate increase to 1000-1500 KIA daily, in a Russia offensive, then we all know this ain't sustainable, we are indeed approaching a big moment, and we must keep in mind, always, Russia is totally controlling the initiatives...and that makes a huge difference. We are in for a lot of surprises, very positive ones for Russia and allies.
I have thought the claims of the grand Ukrainian counter-offensive were mere propaganda, but I keep thinking back to last year, when we had claims that Ukraine was going to take Kherson, and did so (though whether it was mostly abandoned by Russia in order to shore up defensive lines is another issue), and all that drama and smoke obscured the northern attack around Kharkov and Russia had to do a hasty retreat there as well.
Of course, Russia let the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkov overextend itself and then smashed it down hard, but Russia still gave up a lot of territory, that has likely been reinforced since then.
I know what it is happening in the Donbas now is different. These are two highly fortified cities that had significant numbers of troops prior to the SMO.
Is the true Russian goal destroying as many Ukrainian armies as possible, or is it to liberate people and territory? The Ukrainian army has been destroyed a few times already and killing untrained grey-haired men and clean-faced boys does not seem like a good goal. We did not get the Russian winter offensive that was much talked about.
Perhaps it is time for the Russian spring offensive.
Russian ISR does not have to be equal to US/Nato, just good enough to gain an accurate picture of Ukraines actual combat capacity around Bakhmut/Soledar.
The AFU will either 1) launch an attack that knocks the Russians back - even if only temporarily or 2) the AFU will fail to launch an attack or attack in a limited way designed to produce "rescue" videos.
If the actual result is #1 and it is not defeated, then perhaps we must question Russian Army capabilities and/or rethink the actual damage that has been done to the AFU and revise our thinking on it's ability to generate new reserves and combat power.
If it's #2, then he can perhaps conclude that the Russian Army is the real deal and that the AFU is badly damaged with it's ability to continue generating new combat power growing less and less.
I think we will know one way or the other in the next 2 weeks.
My bet is on #2 - but only for small stakes reflecting my confidence.
We do have to respect Russias musical balancing of efforts on 3 or 4 different separate but related battlefields which must be unbalancing Ukraine. A lesson in how to create uncertainty in an environment of pervasive ISR. That in itself says something positive about the quality of Russian higher command.
Any thoughts on the UK sending DU Shells to Ukraine? My fears are if they succeed in this provocation, then the US and Germany will surely follow suit.
Sorry guys I still haven’t read this. I absolutely will but when I read this author I need to be in a meditative state. And of course all of Simplicius’s stuff is well thought out and long.
I did want to say something tho. Last year my buddy said to me “Even if Russia wins we will be sold lies. The media at the very least will spin it as a stalemate or Ukraine win.”
I said that’s a wonderful point and you are correct. All the countries being held hostage by the US hegemonic power will fall under the spell. The vast majority of their citizens will not bat an eye even if Putin sits on the throne in Kiev. They will never know.
I said but their reach has a water’s edge. It only goes so far as Western Nations. Here is what we must watch for my friend. Look to see how every country outside Russia and the US sphere reacts. They will not be influenced by propaganda and lies. They have their own Intel. If it appears Russia is on the ropes they will either cozy up to the West/US or keep quiet/neutral.
But now we see what’s happening. These countries are actively seeking to partner with Russia and China. They have no qualms about cutting the propaganda paper Tiger out. I think we know who’s winning boys. I understand it’s not over yet.
Again, Apologies again for being off topic. Simplicius may be the most enlightened author I have found. Never forget always look to the zeitgeist for answers; just remember to look behind the curtain.
What phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe will "The Ukraine Counter Offensive" be part of?
Wave after wave of disinformation campaigns being waged by both sides. We are neck deep in propaganda and just junk "news". The bottom line is that there is NO WAY Ukraine will win anything of any significance in the next 6 months, and the realities on the ground point to a complete Russian victory, at least to the Dnieper by mid-summer. There is a tediousness to all the junk information circulating and the focus on minutia day to day. Putin and Shoigu look very happy. Biden and the NATO crowd and their boy Zelensky do not look or act happy at all. The USA is showing mighty stress and strain and staring strategic defeat and utter humiliation right in the face. The last 6 weeks has been one Russian bitch slap to the USA after the other. The USA is entering the last phase in its collapse.
I do wonder about Wagner boss mans numbers. If theres 1000 tanks parked outside Dennys waiting to get breakfast hes so sure about then maybe bomb one or something?
Im sure a lot of what he says is psych ops though.
I wish we got info about the nato bunker, these recent glide bomb attacks, the drone recovery etc but no ones going to announce such things until far into the future.
With regard to Poland's delusions of grandeur, take note of these articles on how Poland's entire army was obliterated by the Russians in FIVE DAYS in a war game run by the Poles themselves!
Wargame Study Shows Polish Armed Forces Obliterated in Just 5 Days
https://www.overtdefense.com/2021/03/31/wargame-study-shows-polish-armed-forces-obliterated-just-5-days/
How Poland Just Lost to Russia in a Massive Wargame (And What It Means)
Poland’s Ministry of Defense sought to see how its forces would fare in the event of an all-out Russian invasion. It didn't go well.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-poland-just-lost-russia-massive-wargame-and-what-it-means-178578
Also people should watch Scott Ritter's interview with Garland Nixon (along with Andrei Martyanov) the other day - Ritter absolutely trashes the possibility of either Poland, NATO or even the US actually being able to do anything in Ukraine effectively.
THE UKRAINE CRISIS - WITH SCOTT RITTER AND ANDREI MARTYANOV - VOLUME TWO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIJoFjqg80M
A fantastic site rep !!
During the planned scamdemic De Santis fought the good fight....but now he is showing his true colours, just another Deep State whore.
Fabulous article. The information about Poland is disturbing, as it seems to confirm that Poland will be the next US proxy in its war against Russia. I had no idea about the size and cost of the US Keyhole satellites. Maybe the US can build 6 more with the $2 trillion military budget! Much more important that dealing with crumbling US infrastructure, homelessness, poverty, despair, rampant drug use . . . much better to inflict unlimited pain abroad in the name of "freedom and democracy".
I learnt in the past few decades that the West always under estimate Russia's capabilities and strategies, the main gap is the aspect of time....Russians are patient and diligent, and the West got used to win by air strikes and total war against populations, and when we see what it is happening in the disappearing Ukraine is a Russian method of controlling the initiatives, and that takes account strategic retreating, bombing the hell of the front line and troop gathering in the rear, usually using huge ammount of artillery....that grind ukrops slowly, daily...this is what demilitarization is all about. I am not saying here that the Ukro-nazis would not be able to unleash a desperate counter offensive in Artyomovsk region, they can and they will, but Russia is controlling the initiative, so....about the time of the supposed famous and boasted by all in the rotten Western MSM....Russia can and may unleash a serious offensive in another critical region inside the borderland...
I truly believe we are in the crossroad of this special military operation, ukrops are losing something between 300-600 KIA daily, once this rate increase to 1000-1500 KIA daily, in a Russia offensive, then we all know this ain't sustainable, we are indeed approaching a big moment, and we must keep in mind, always, Russia is totally controlling the initiatives...and that makes a huge difference. We are in for a lot of surprises, very positive ones for Russia and allies.
I have thought the claims of the grand Ukrainian counter-offensive were mere propaganda, but I keep thinking back to last year, when we had claims that Ukraine was going to take Kherson, and did so (though whether it was mostly abandoned by Russia in order to shore up defensive lines is another issue), and all that drama and smoke obscured the northern attack around Kharkov and Russia had to do a hasty retreat there as well.
Of course, Russia let the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkov overextend itself and then smashed it down hard, but Russia still gave up a lot of territory, that has likely been reinforced since then.
I know what it is happening in the Donbas now is different. These are two highly fortified cities that had significant numbers of troops prior to the SMO.
Is the true Russian goal destroying as many Ukrainian armies as possible, or is it to liberate people and territory? The Ukrainian army has been destroyed a few times already and killing untrained grey-haired men and clean-faced boys does not seem like a good goal. We did not get the Russian winter offensive that was much talked about.
Perhaps it is time for the Russian spring offensive.
Russian ISR does not have to be equal to US/Nato, just good enough to gain an accurate picture of Ukraines actual combat capacity around Bakhmut/Soledar.
The AFU will either 1) launch an attack that knocks the Russians back - even if only temporarily or 2) the AFU will fail to launch an attack or attack in a limited way designed to produce "rescue" videos.
If the actual result is #1 and it is not defeated, then perhaps we must question Russian Army capabilities and/or rethink the actual damage that has been done to the AFU and revise our thinking on it's ability to generate new reserves and combat power.
If it's #2, then he can perhaps conclude that the Russian Army is the real deal and that the AFU is badly damaged with it's ability to continue generating new combat power growing less and less.
I think we will know one way or the other in the next 2 weeks.
My bet is on #2 - but only for small stakes reflecting my confidence.
We do have to respect Russias musical balancing of efforts on 3 or 4 different separate but related battlefields which must be unbalancing Ukraine. A lesson in how to create uncertainty in an environment of pervasive ISR. That in itself says something positive about the quality of Russian higher command.
Does Russia have use of China’s massive satellite surveillance and other ISR assets?
Any thoughts on the UK sending DU Shells to Ukraine? My fears are if they succeed in this provocation, then the US and Germany will surely follow suit.
True indeed my friend...good to meet you again grr.
Sorry guys I still haven’t read this. I absolutely will but when I read this author I need to be in a meditative state. And of course all of Simplicius’s stuff is well thought out and long.
I did want to say something tho. Last year my buddy said to me “Even if Russia wins we will be sold lies. The media at the very least will spin it as a stalemate or Ukraine win.”
I said that’s a wonderful point and you are correct. All the countries being held hostage by the US hegemonic power will fall under the spell. The vast majority of their citizens will not bat an eye even if Putin sits on the throne in Kiev. They will never know.
I said but their reach has a water’s edge. It only goes so far as Western Nations. Here is what we must watch for my friend. Look to see how every country outside Russia and the US sphere reacts. They will not be influenced by propaganda and lies. They have their own Intel. If it appears Russia is on the ropes they will either cozy up to the West/US or keep quiet/neutral.
But now we see what’s happening. These countries are actively seeking to partner with Russia and China. They have no qualms about cutting the propaganda paper Tiger out. I think we know who’s winning boys. I understand it’s not over yet.
Again, Apologies again for being off topic. Simplicius may be the most enlightened author I have found. Never forget always look to the zeitgeist for answers; just remember to look behind the curtain.