Poland is no position to take over everything. All their military equipment has been sent to Ukraine. Sure they have ordered replacements but that will take years to complete. Poland remains a very poor country. They don't export anything of note. They are punching well about their weight thinking they are going to be some sort of new Holy Roman Empire. I predict a crashing fall.
If they take a single inch of ground, it will be considered an incredible succes, and you won't hear the end of it. If it happens like in Kherson before the Russians pulled out (i.e. Ukraine sending waves upon waves of troops into fortified positions), it'll be memory holed, and you'll never know it ever happened.
Wave after wave of disinformation campaigns being waged by both sides. We are neck deep in propaganda and just junk "news". The bottom line is that there is NO WAY Ukraine will win anything of any significance in the next 6 months, and the realities on the ground point to a complete Russian victory, at least to the Dnieper by mid-summer. There is a tediousness to all the junk information circulating and the focus on minutia day to day. Putin and Shoigu look very happy. Biden and the NATO crowd and their boy Zelensky do not look or act happy at all. The USA is showing mighty stress and strain and staring strategic defeat and utter humiliation right in the face. The last 6 weeks has been one Russian bitch slap to the USA after the other. The USA is entering the last phase in its collapse.
Once again non military events may collapse the al '404 war adventure ' much faster eventually.Tonight there is an emergency meeting between the Fed, the Treasury, the WH etc..today DBank (one of the top 5 systemic TBTF bank full of trillions of debts/ derivatives, lost 15%, his share value is approaching zero, cds(insurances on default) are skyrocketing). They already restarted massive QE(which will lead to massive inflation till the war is off)...if they (deep state) have at one point to choose between a lost cause (404) and their money, whatever all pentagon generals or neocons may want, the choice is already done.
Moody’s says there is a risk that US banking turmoil cannot be contained.
Just a risk?
There appears to be this theory that you can preserve your currency by destroying your economy whilst already running massive budget and trade deficits and have the printing press running in overdrive.
Sorry, but that is absolute nonsense.
I was thinking back to the amount of times I hastily arranged a meeting on Friday afternoon with senior partners behind closed doors only to conclude everything was fine.
The answer is never.
Nothing to see here:
Yellen is set to chair a closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) today.Now it is not about having skin in the game to see major developments. It's about being in the eye of the storm and observing everything with total objectivity. If you have skin in the game that is not possible to achieve.
The banks most at risk are the ones with the largest exposure to interest rate products.
btw, last report on us' federal reserve asset balance week ended 22 mar added $100b, the previous week added $300B, that is added back more than half the quantitative tightening that started about a year ago.
dow is rallying bc risk assets are safer than banks!
USA is in late stage economic collapse. They have to give up in Ukraine by Sept because they will have run out of weapons by then. How can you plan a war with Russia and run out of weapons in 15 months? Because NATO is completely corrupt, arrogant and stupid. This is part of the Western societal and economic collapse.
Basically zero disinformation coming out of the Russians and the pro-Russian social media sites. In general, these people don't like being lied to, and if Russia is making something up or denying something (their typical fault in this area), these citizen journalists will usually uncover it and post it quickly. Russian people on the Net have an attitude that they don't appreciate being lied to by anyone, including their own country.
There are also a lot of fake pro-Russian reports that come out and say that Russia has taken X village. If it's not true, the bloggers report it very fast. Russians don't want to believe crap and lies. Their country is harsh enough. They are used to the idea of the world as a cruel, cold place where your dreams often don't come true, your side loses and the bad guys win, and life basically more or less sucks, etc. So they're not averse to bad news.
Heck, I can't even remember the last time Russia even denied something that they actually did.
I think Americans love being lied to. Or at least when you tell them they're being lied to, they get very angry and shoot you down. The reason is simple. If you start thinking that the media and government are lying to you a lot of the time, this causes a lot of anxiety. How will I know what's true and what's a lie? That attitude makes the world a much scarier place than it already is.
Ukrainians love lies, love believing lies, and don't care if the "facts" they spout are actually falsehoods, etc. Hell, a lot of them are making up their own lies all the time. Ukraine is a fascist country and one of the hallmarks of fascism is near-continuous lying by the state. Apparently people living under fascism think this is fine.
Bottom line is people really don't care whether some statement or story is true or false. Most people operate on this form of logic:
Things I want to believe are true = truth.
Things I don't want to believe are true = false.
I've been around this world for a number of decades, and if I'm sure about anything, it's this. People honestly could care less about facts or lies, and really don't care if the stuff they believe is true or not.
Countries where everyone agrees with vast lies, like the US and now the entire West, do not think they are being lied to. They swear by the media/state lies about foreign policy which these entities have told them are the truth. So they think they believe in the truth. They get upset if you tell them they are being lied to because to believe that makes you feel like a mark, a tool, and idiot, a fool.
You are correct in a sense that no one likes being lied to. But the West is very hostile to the belief that the state and media are lying to them about foreign policy. They don't believe it's true.
In Russia, by contrast, the notion that the state and media are lying to you is easily accepted as obvious in many cases. This is perhaps a legacy of their Soviet past and its propaganda. They are naturally suspicious of anything the state or media tells them, and they reflexively want to check it out to see if it is true or not. At least that's the case on Russian Telegram and Twitter sites.
There was some controversy over this. Some Twitter people said, "Hey let's not talk about these unpleasant truths!" Others said it is good we are talking about failures in mobilization or on the field because this means that we now have a "civil society" where people can protest conditions. And indeed a lot of people protested mobilization problems, and they typically were resolved quite quickly by authorities instead of being buried and covered up. The same with military failures. Users were saying we need to talk about this so we don't do the same mistakes in the future.
After 26 milion people dead in WW2 you will have a very dark perspective about the world. But that goes a long way în their history, Dostoievsky is beyond dark. All major russian writters have a nihilistic worldview. That s because they have been at war fir a very long time. The americans live în an optimistic la la land.
The very use of the term, "offensive" implies a mindset rooted in the wars of the past. The SMO, as I have argued in my newsletter is not a "war" in the sense that the West understands "war" -- that is WWII. That is, of course, why the Russians insist on calling it a military operation rather than a war. Western thinking drives the West towards what Aleks over at Black Mountain Analysis calls "scorched earth" policy, the kind of shock & awe stuff that destroyed so much of Iraq and Afghanistan, and now is destroying Eastern Ukraine--big offensives aimed at destruction.
The Russians are not fighting for territory; they are focused on "demilitarization" which means destroying NATO/ UAF assets--hence, the slow grind. NATO and the UAF talk up "offensives" for public consumption and then have to follow through, as in Kharkov and Kherson -- and, of course, Bakhmut / Artemovosk --losing one army after another.
The US is always recapitulating WWII, not as it was but as they think it was. Russia is fighting Tomorrow's War. And China is preparing to do the same.
Undoubtedly, the term that best defined the US during the WO that emerged from WWII was a lying state! Which they must have learned from the instruction book they received with the British Empire or from listening to Churchill! Today they are essentially a terrorist state. And I'm measuring my words well. That it not only destroyed a series of countries and regions, killing and pushing millions of human beings into refugees, but also destroyed and took over all the great Institutions with some role of world Governance. From the UN to the ICC! As we have just seen. The US has long been a state completely outside the UN charter and international law. In a world according to US rules that is finally and happily coming to an end!
I do wonder about Wagner boss mans numbers. If theres 1000 tanks parked outside Dennys waiting to get breakfast hes so sure about then maybe bomb one or something?
Im sure a lot of what he says is psych ops though.
I wish we got info about the nato bunker, these recent glide bomb attacks, the drone recovery etc but no ones going to announce such things until far into the future.
With regard to Poland's delusions of grandeur, take note of these articles on how Poland's entire army was obliterated by the Russians in FIVE DAYS in a war game run by the Poles themselves!
Wargame Study Shows Polish Armed Forces Obliterated in Just 5 Days
Also people should watch Scott Ritter's interview with Garland Nixon (along with Andrei Martyanov) the other day - Ritter absolutely trashes the possibility of either Poland, NATO or even the US actually being able to do anything in Ukraine effectively.
THE UKRAINE CRISIS - WITH SCOTT RITTER AND ANDREI MARTYANOV - VOLUME TWO
The only way Trump loses is if Trump is put in Prison and killed. Aside from him being a deep state puppet, the guy has the personality of a rock. Zero charisma.
If you look at DeSantis’s background when he was Congress he was a typical neocon. He said the Republican president he looked up to is GW Bush. He is pro Israeli,anti Iran,anti China and anti Russia. I’m not surprised at all. A President DeSantis would be GW Bush 2.0. He would likely lead us to a war with Iran and even China. The Deep State has groomed him to be the next neo con president that will continue the American hegemony machine.
Fabulous article. The information about Poland is disturbing, as it seems to confirm that Poland will be the next US proxy in its war against Russia. I had no idea about the size and cost of the US Keyhole satellites. Maybe the US can build 6 more with the $2 trillion military budget! Much more important that dealing with crumbling US infrastructure, homelessness, poverty, despair, rampant drug use . . . much better to inflict unlimited pain abroad in the name of "freedom and democracy".
Poland has delusions of grandeur. The Poles think they will resurrect the mighty Polish Kingdom. They don't see themselves as a proxy, but as exploiting America for their own goals. Given the large number of Poles in important decision and policy making positions over the years in the US, it isn't surprising.
They are mainly UK usefull idiots even if the US provide the weapons,the money (but in credits no free giveaway) and mil personnel...the real manipulator in this all thing was and still is Bojo(shadow bojo now), as he dreams about his plan of a Baltic to Black sea kingdom including all the usefull idiots in the area(404, Moldova, Romania, Poland + Balts) and even the 4 scandi crowd.It is strange because it has no logic as it is a mix of catholics and protestants who often hate each other.
England is the main otter of wars from Syrian war to Ukraine War. Russia must not waste time on others. Russia must attack England and England only if she wants to survive
I learnt in the past few decades that the West always under estimate Russia's capabilities and strategies, the main gap is the aspect of time....Russians are patient and diligent, and the West got used to win by air strikes and total war against populations, and when we see what it is happening in the disappearing Ukraine is a Russian method of controlling the initiatives, and that takes account strategic retreating, bombing the hell of the front line and troop gathering in the rear, usually using huge ammount of artillery....that grind ukrops slowly, daily...this is what demilitarization is all about. I am not saying here that the Ukro-nazis would not be able to unleash a desperate counter offensive in Artyomovsk region, they can and they will, but Russia is controlling the initiative, so....about the time of the supposed famous and boasted by all in the rotten Western MSM....Russia can and may unleash a serious offensive in another critical region inside the borderland...
I truly believe we are in the crossroad of this special military operation, ukrops are losing something between 300-600 KIA daily, once this rate increase to 1000-1500 KIA daily, in a Russia offensive, then we all know this ain't sustainable, we are indeed approaching a big moment, and we must keep in mind, always, Russia is totally controlling the initiatives...and that makes a huge difference. We are in for a lot of surprises, very positive ones for Russia and allies.
To place the daily kill ratio in context it must be stressed that this number is an average. Some days thousands of Ukies are killed as in the Kherson region Russian tactical withdrawal.
I personally believe we will see some huge daily numbers soon - 10K even.
I have thought the claims of the grand Ukrainian counter-offensive were mere propaganda, but I keep thinking back to last year, when we had claims that Ukraine was going to take Kherson, and did so (though whether it was mostly abandoned by Russia in order to shore up defensive lines is another issue), and all that drama and smoke obscured the northern attack around Kharkov and Russia had to do a hasty retreat there as well.
Of course, Russia let the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkov overextend itself and then smashed it down hard, but Russia still gave up a lot of territory, that has likely been reinforced since then.
I know what it is happening in the Donbas now is different. These are two highly fortified cities that had significant numbers of troops prior to the SMO.
Is the true Russian goal destroying as many Ukrainian armies as possible, or is it to liberate people and territory? The Ukrainian army has been destroyed a few times already and killing untrained grey-haired men and clean-faced boys does not seem like a good goal. We did not get the Russian winter offensive that was much talked about.
Perhaps it is time for the Russian spring offensive.
What happened in Kharkov area last year was mainly due to: lack of manpower as 60k RF contracts soldiers with a six months contract did not renew. Gen Lapin advised Moscow in early June to mobilize asap. Politicos did not want because of bad effect on the economy and (justified fear) of thousand leaving for Dubai, Tel Aviv, Georgia etc...remember that even the Kremlin was surprised by RU resistence to sanctions (data are just out : gdp is down - 2.1% for the all 2022, but economy growing since oct 22 at + 0.3 %/trimestre, will also grow in 2023 and even reach + 2.4 % (imf nrs not RU propaganda) in 2024.For Kherson you are right but is was or losing 30k men and staying or to evacuate both civilians and then military assets. Ukraine side lost a lot of men even after RU Army left, the city, city which is in terrible conditions since, even many pro ukies left.
Right. There were valid reasons for what happened. My point is that the Ukies talked up an attack and did it, and also launched a second attack somewhere else. They could be talking up an attack again, but I would hope Russia will not be giving up more territory and instead push the Ukies back.
If the resistance of the Russian economy to the SMO sanctions was not a surprise to readers of Andrei Martyanov and The Saker, then how could it have been a surprise to the Kremlin? Where's the evidence?
I have an email from last April to a friend where I laughed at his assertion that the Russian economy will suffer. This possibility was taken care of after the Crimea annexation sanctions.
Russian ISR does not have to be equal to US/Nato, just good enough to gain an accurate picture of Ukraines actual combat capacity around Bakhmut/Soledar.
The AFU will either 1) launch an attack that knocks the Russians back - even if only temporarily or 2) the AFU will fail to launch an attack or attack in a limited way designed to produce "rescue" videos.
If the actual result is #1 and it is not defeated, then perhaps we must question Russian Army capabilities and/or rethink the actual damage that has been done to the AFU and revise our thinking on it's ability to generate new reserves and combat power.
If it's #2, then he can perhaps conclude that the Russian Army is the real deal and that the AFU is badly damaged with it's ability to continue generating new combat power growing less and less.
I think we will know one way or the other in the next 2 weeks.
My bet is on #2 - but only for small stakes reflecting my confidence.
We do have to respect Russias musical balancing of efforts on 3 or 4 different separate but related battlefields which must be unbalancing Ukraine. A lesson in how to create uncertainty in an environment of pervasive ISR. That in itself says something positive about the quality of Russian higher command.
China doesn't have much assets for monitoring Europe, and why would they? Despite the propaganda they aren't interested in world conquest and control like Uncle Sam is.
Your theory sounds outrageous, but we live in a day when crazy theories often turn out to be fundamentally true !
Do you have any links to underpin your statement:
"Israel is now a CHINESE Proxy, get over this idea if you think otherwise, China has invested $1 Trillion USD in Israel over the past 20 years, If they didn't trust Israel they wouldn't have made the investments."
@metoo - The link I originally followed was the one in your original post, not the bilbobitch link. I've read through that one now and some of the links in the comments. Very speculative, but worth considering. One thing I do agree with is that Israel and the Jews are are the center of many events, but we probably would not agreee as to why that is and what it means.
Any thoughts on the UK sending DU Shells to Ukraine? My fears are if they succeed in this provocation, then the US and Germany will surely follow suit.
By themselves those shells don't seem very useful, they already sent them anti-armor weapons, so its clearly a political move only in constantly moving the red lines closes and closer to Moscow itself.
All it will do is spread toxic environmental damage all over the place, and Ukraine is getting more and more toxic from all the weapons used already.
The Project for a New American Century called for using any means to prevent Ukraine from reuniting with Russia, but if that couldn't be arranged, then to destroy Ukraine so it would be a useless burden on Russia for decades. Contaminating the Donbas with DU would do the trick. And no danger of the US/UK being charged with war crimes by their wholly owned ICC fraud.
Sorry guys I still haven’t read this. I absolutely will but when I read this author I need to be in a meditative state. And of course all of Simplicius’s stuff is well thought out and long.
I did want to say something tho. Last year my buddy said to me “Even if Russia wins we will be sold lies. The media at the very least will spin it as a stalemate or Ukraine win.”
I said that’s a wonderful point and you are correct. All the countries being held hostage by the US hegemonic power will fall under the spell. The vast majority of their citizens will not bat an eye even if Putin sits on the throne in Kiev. They will never know.
I said but their reach has a water’s edge. It only goes so far as Western Nations. Here is what we must watch for my friend. Look to see how every country outside Russia and the US sphere reacts. They will not be influenced by propaganda and lies. They have their own Intel. If it appears Russia is on the ropes they will either cozy up to the West/US or keep quiet/neutral.
But now we see what’s happening. These countries are actively seeking to partner with Russia and China. They have no qualms about cutting the propaganda paper Tiger out. I think we know who’s winning boys. I understand it’s not over yet.
Again, Apologies again for being off topic. Simplicius may be the most enlightened author I have found. Never forget always look to the zeitgeist for answers; just remember to look behind the curtain.
In the West, now at least 95% (if not even more of the people are NOT interested by this war at all).Ukraine fatigue (even in the msm very rare front pages except in fin world or quality papers FT WSJ NYT WAPO DT), but vast majority of people don't care about Ukraine and never read these papers, they care more and more about their politicians giving away billions for nothing, high inflation(increasing again), energy prices for next winter etc..lot of people are turning anti Zelensky, very few ukies flags seen in my city ( a Nato capital), pensions reforms like in France, other issues in other countries are taking the lead in the news circle.
We have the opposite feeling because we are following this war since day one and for some like me since Maidan, eventhough I'm neither Russian or ukie, never been in Russia or Ukraine in my life.
More and more people are now turning on Russia side because too many lies, people are not idiots(NS Sabotage), VVP XI meeting, Iran Saudis agreement, even today Saudis Assad. Brazilian president will be in China for..5 days where he will receive instructions from XI for his part of the global South (am south + central), brics is starting to be taken seriously even by our worse ennemies, yuan slowly eating USD dominance(it will take 15/20 years) etc etc..even more since the Hague arrest order against VVP which even Putin haters find ridicule...Russia is not waging war against 404 but is the World leader waging war against what a lot of people hate: NATO EU Euro UK US politicians and 99 % of whores 'journos'.
Poland is no position to take over everything. All their military equipment has been sent to Ukraine. Sure they have ordered replacements but that will take years to complete. Poland remains a very poor country. They don't export anything of note. They are punching well about their weight thinking they are going to be some sort of new Holy Roman Empire. I predict a crashing fall.
Russia. must attack and kill as.
as many english troops as possible. Coward engish are plotters not fighters. They use others to fight their wars
What phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe will "The Ukraine Counter Offensive" be part of?
If they take a single inch of ground, it will be considered an incredible succes, and you won't hear the end of it. If it happens like in Kherson before the Russians pulled out (i.e. Ukraine sending waves upon waves of troops into fortified positions), it'll be memory holed, and you'll never know it ever happened.
Wave after wave of disinformation campaigns being waged by both sides. We are neck deep in propaganda and just junk "news". The bottom line is that there is NO WAY Ukraine will win anything of any significance in the next 6 months, and the realities on the ground point to a complete Russian victory, at least to the Dnieper by mid-summer. There is a tediousness to all the junk information circulating and the focus on minutia day to day. Putin and Shoigu look very happy. Biden and the NATO crowd and their boy Zelensky do not look or act happy at all. The USA is showing mighty stress and strain and staring strategic defeat and utter humiliation right in the face. The last 6 weeks has been one Russian bitch slap to the USA after the other. The USA is entering the last phase in its collapse.
Once again non military events may collapse the al '404 war adventure ' much faster eventually.Tonight there is an emergency meeting between the Fed, the Treasury, the WH etc..today DBank (one of the top 5 systemic TBTF bank full of trillions of debts/ derivatives, lost 15%, his share value is approaching zero, cds(insurances on default) are skyrocketing). They already restarted massive QE(which will lead to massive inflation till the war is off)...if they (deep state) have at one point to choose between a lost cause (404) and their money, whatever all pentagon generals or neocons may want, the choice is already done.
Moody’s says there is a risk that US banking turmoil cannot be contained.
Just a risk?
There appears to be this theory that you can preserve your currency by destroying your economy whilst already running massive budget and trade deficits and have the printing press running in overdrive.
Sorry, but that is absolute nonsense.
I was thinking back to the amount of times I hastily arranged a meeting on Friday afternoon with senior partners behind closed doors only to conclude everything was fine.
The answer is never.
Nothing to see here:
Yellen is set to chair a closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) today.Now it is not about having skin in the game to see major developments. It's about being in the eye of the storm and observing everything with total objectivity. If you have skin in the game that is not possible to achieve.
The banks most at risk are the ones with the largest exposure to interest rate products.
The current crisis is due to derivatives.
Derivatives are also tied to USTs.
source Sirius report
btw, last report on us' federal reserve asset balance week ended 22 mar added $100b, the previous week added $300B, that is added back more than half the quantitative tightening that started about a year ago.
dow is rallying bc risk assets are safer than banks!
USA is in late stage economic collapse. They have to give up in Ukraine by Sept because they will have run out of weapons by then. How can you plan a war with Russia and run out of weapons in 15 months? Because NATO is completely corrupt, arrogant and stupid. This is part of the Western societal and economic collapse.
Basically zero disinformation coming out of the Russians and the pro-Russian social media sites. In general, these people don't like being lied to, and if Russia is making something up or denying something (their typical fault in this area), these citizen journalists will usually uncover it and post it quickly. Russian people on the Net have an attitude that they don't appreciate being lied to by anyone, including their own country.
There are also a lot of fake pro-Russian reports that come out and say that Russia has taken X village. If it's not true, the bloggers report it very fast. Russians don't want to believe crap and lies. Their country is harsh enough. They are used to the idea of the world as a cruel, cold place where your dreams often don't come true, your side loses and the bad guys win, and life basically more or less sucks, etc. So they're not averse to bad news.
Heck, I can't even remember the last time Russia even denied something that they actually did.
I think Americans love being lied to. Or at least when you tell them they're being lied to, they get very angry and shoot you down. The reason is simple. If you start thinking that the media and government are lying to you a lot of the time, this causes a lot of anxiety. How will I know what's true and what's a lie? That attitude makes the world a much scarier place than it already is.
Ukrainians love lies, love believing lies, and don't care if the "facts" they spout are actually falsehoods, etc. Hell, a lot of them are making up their own lies all the time. Ukraine is a fascist country and one of the hallmarks of fascism is near-continuous lying by the state. Apparently people living under fascism think this is fine.
Bottom line is people really don't care whether some statement or story is true or false. Most people operate on this form of logic:
Things I want to believe are true = truth.
Things I don't want to believe are true = false.
I've been around this world for a number of decades, and if I'm sure about anything, it's this. People honestly could care less about facts or lies, and really don't care if the stuff they believe is true or not.
Countries where everyone agrees with vast lies, like the US and now the entire West, do not think they are being lied to. They swear by the media/state lies about foreign policy which these entities have told them are the truth. So they think they believe in the truth. They get upset if you tell them they are being lied to because to believe that makes you feel like a mark, a tool, and idiot, a fool.
You are correct in a sense that no one likes being lied to. But the West is very hostile to the belief that the state and media are lying to them about foreign policy. They don't believe it's true.
In Russia, by contrast, the notion that the state and media are lying to you is easily accepted as obvious in many cases. This is perhaps a legacy of their Soviet past and its propaganda. They are naturally suspicious of anything the state or media tells them, and they reflexively want to check it out to see if it is true or not. At least that's the case on Russian Telegram and Twitter sites.
There was some controversy over this. Some Twitter people said, "Hey let's not talk about these unpleasant truths!" Others said it is good we are talking about failures in mobilization or on the field because this means that we now have a "civil society" where people can protest conditions. And indeed a lot of people protested mobilization problems, and they typically were resolved quite quickly by authorities instead of being buried and covered up. The same with military failures. Users were saying we need to talk about this so we don't do the same mistakes in the future.
A very pleasant attitude, I must say!
Completely agree about Russians not liking being lied to .Astute observation
After 26 milion people dead in WW2 you will have a very dark perspective about the world. But that goes a long way în their history, Dostoievsky is beyond dark. All major russian writters have a nihilistic worldview. That s because they have been at war fir a very long time. The americans live în an optimistic la la land.
The very use of the term, "offensive" implies a mindset rooted in the wars of the past. The SMO, as I have argued in my newsletter is not a "war" in the sense that the West understands "war" -- that is WWII. That is, of course, why the Russians insist on calling it a military operation rather than a war. Western thinking drives the West towards what Aleks over at Black Mountain Analysis calls "scorched earth" policy, the kind of shock & awe stuff that destroyed so much of Iraq and Afghanistan, and now is destroying Eastern Ukraine--big offensives aimed at destruction.
The Russians are not fighting for territory; they are focused on "demilitarization" which means destroying NATO/ UAF assets--hence, the slow grind. NATO and the UAF talk up "offensives" for public consumption and then have to follow through, as in Kharkov and Kherson -- and, of course, Bakhmut / Artemovosk --losing one army after another.
The US is always recapitulating WWII, not as it was but as they think it was. Russia is fighting Tomorrow's War. And China is preparing to do the same.
https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/tomorrows-war-today?
Undoubtedly, the term that best defined the US during the WO that emerged from WWII was a lying state! Which they must have learned from the instruction book they received with the British Empire or from listening to Churchill! Today they are essentially a terrorist state. And I'm measuring my words well. That it not only destroyed a series of countries and regions, killing and pushing millions of human beings into refugees, but also destroyed and took over all the great Institutions with some role of world Governance. From the UN to the ICC! As we have just seen. The US has long been a state completely outside the UN charter and international law. In a world according to US rules that is finally and happily coming to an end!
I do wonder about Wagner boss mans numbers. If theres 1000 tanks parked outside Dennys waiting to get breakfast hes so sure about then maybe bomb one or something?
Im sure a lot of what he says is psych ops though.
I wish we got info about the nato bunker, these recent glide bomb attacks, the drone recovery etc but no ones going to announce such things until far into the future.
With regard to Poland's delusions of grandeur, take note of these articles on how Poland's entire army was obliterated by the Russians in FIVE DAYS in a war game run by the Poles themselves!
Wargame Study Shows Polish Armed Forces Obliterated in Just 5 Days
https://www.overtdefense.com/2021/03/31/wargame-study-shows-polish-armed-forces-obliterated-just-5-days/
How Poland Just Lost to Russia in a Massive Wargame (And What It Means)
Poland’s Ministry of Defense sought to see how its forces would fare in the event of an all-out Russian invasion. It didn't go well.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-poland-just-lost-russia-massive-wargame-and-what-it-means-178578
Also people should watch Scott Ritter's interview with Garland Nixon (along with Andrei Martyanov) the other day - Ritter absolutely trashes the possibility of either Poland, NATO or even the US actually being able to do anything in Ukraine effectively.
THE UKRAINE CRISIS - WITH SCOTT RITTER AND ANDREI MARTYANOV - VOLUME TWO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIJoFjqg80M
A fantastic site rep !!
I second that!
During the planned scamdemic De Santis fought the good fight....but now he is showing his true colours, just another Deep State whore.
I am grateful people are seeing his true colors before he announces.
The only way Trump loses is if Trump is put in Prison and killed. Aside from him being a deep state puppet, the guy has the personality of a rock. Zero charisma.
If you look at DeSantis’s background when he was Congress he was a typical neocon. He said the Republican president he looked up to is GW Bush. He is pro Israeli,anti Iran,anti China and anti Russia. I’m not surprised at all. A President DeSantis would be GW Bush 2.0. He would likely lead us to a war with Iran and even China. The Deep State has groomed him to be the next neo con president that will continue the American hegemony machine.
Fabulous article. The information about Poland is disturbing, as it seems to confirm that Poland will be the next US proxy in its war against Russia. I had no idea about the size and cost of the US Keyhole satellites. Maybe the US can build 6 more with the $2 trillion military budget! Much more important that dealing with crumbling US infrastructure, homelessness, poverty, despair, rampant drug use . . . much better to inflict unlimited pain abroad in the name of "freedom and democracy".
Poland has delusions of grandeur. The Poles think they will resurrect the mighty Polish Kingdom. They don't see themselves as a proxy, but as exploiting America for their own goals. Given the large number of Poles in important decision and policy making positions over the years in the US, it isn't surprising.
They are mainly UK usefull idiots even if the US provide the weapons,the money (but in credits no free giveaway) and mil personnel...the real manipulator in this all thing was and still is Bojo(shadow bojo now), as he dreams about his plan of a Baltic to Black sea kingdom including all the usefull idiots in the area(404, Moldova, Romania, Poland + Balts) and even the 4 scandi crowd.It is strange because it has no logic as it is a mix of catholics and protestants who often hate each other.
England is the main otter of wars from Syrian war to Ukraine War. Russia must not waste time on others. Russia must attack England and England only if she wants to survive
I learnt in the past few decades that the West always under estimate Russia's capabilities and strategies, the main gap is the aspect of time....Russians are patient and diligent, and the West got used to win by air strikes and total war against populations, and when we see what it is happening in the disappearing Ukraine is a Russian method of controlling the initiatives, and that takes account strategic retreating, bombing the hell of the front line and troop gathering in the rear, usually using huge ammount of artillery....that grind ukrops slowly, daily...this is what demilitarization is all about. I am not saying here that the Ukro-nazis would not be able to unleash a desperate counter offensive in Artyomovsk region, they can and they will, but Russia is controlling the initiative, so....about the time of the supposed famous and boasted by all in the rotten Western MSM....Russia can and may unleash a serious offensive in another critical region inside the borderland...
I truly believe we are in the crossroad of this special military operation, ukrops are losing something between 300-600 KIA daily, once this rate increase to 1000-1500 KIA daily, in a Russia offensive, then we all know this ain't sustainable, we are indeed approaching a big moment, and we must keep in mind, always, Russia is totally controlling the initiatives...and that makes a huge difference. We are in for a lot of surprises, very positive ones for Russia and allies.
To place the daily kill ratio in context it must be stressed that this number is an average. Some days thousands of Ukies are killed as in the Kherson region Russian tactical withdrawal.
I personally believe we will see some huge daily numbers soon - 10K even.
At some point you think they would run out of people.
I have thought the claims of the grand Ukrainian counter-offensive were mere propaganda, but I keep thinking back to last year, when we had claims that Ukraine was going to take Kherson, and did so (though whether it was mostly abandoned by Russia in order to shore up defensive lines is another issue), and all that drama and smoke obscured the northern attack around Kharkov and Russia had to do a hasty retreat there as well.
Of course, Russia let the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkov overextend itself and then smashed it down hard, but Russia still gave up a lot of territory, that has likely been reinforced since then.
I know what it is happening in the Donbas now is different. These are two highly fortified cities that had significant numbers of troops prior to the SMO.
Is the true Russian goal destroying as many Ukrainian armies as possible, or is it to liberate people and territory? The Ukrainian army has been destroyed a few times already and killing untrained grey-haired men and clean-faced boys does not seem like a good goal. We did not get the Russian winter offensive that was much talked about.
Perhaps it is time for the Russian spring offensive.
What happened in Kharkov area last year was mainly due to: lack of manpower as 60k RF contracts soldiers with a six months contract did not renew. Gen Lapin advised Moscow in early June to mobilize asap. Politicos did not want because of bad effect on the economy and (justified fear) of thousand leaving for Dubai, Tel Aviv, Georgia etc...remember that even the Kremlin was surprised by RU resistence to sanctions (data are just out : gdp is down - 2.1% for the all 2022, but economy growing since oct 22 at + 0.3 %/trimestre, will also grow in 2023 and even reach + 2.4 % (imf nrs not RU propaganda) in 2024.For Kherson you are right but is was or losing 30k men and staying or to evacuate both civilians and then military assets. Ukraine side lost a lot of men even after RU Army left, the city, city which is in terrible conditions since, even many pro ukies left.
Right. There were valid reasons for what happened. My point is that the Ukies talked up an attack and did it, and also launched a second attack somewhere else. They could be talking up an attack again, but I would hope Russia will not be giving up more territory and instead push the Ukies back.
If the resistance of the Russian economy to the SMO sanctions was not a surprise to readers of Andrei Martyanov and The Saker, then how could it have been a surprise to the Kremlin? Where's the evidence?
I have an email from last April to a friend where I laughed at his assertion that the Russian economy will suffer. This possibility was taken care of after the Crimea annexation sanctions.
Russian ISR does not have to be equal to US/Nato, just good enough to gain an accurate picture of Ukraines actual combat capacity around Bakhmut/Soledar.
The AFU will either 1) launch an attack that knocks the Russians back - even if only temporarily or 2) the AFU will fail to launch an attack or attack in a limited way designed to produce "rescue" videos.
If the actual result is #1 and it is not defeated, then perhaps we must question Russian Army capabilities and/or rethink the actual damage that has been done to the AFU and revise our thinking on it's ability to generate new reserves and combat power.
If it's #2, then he can perhaps conclude that the Russian Army is the real deal and that the AFU is badly damaged with it's ability to continue generating new combat power growing less and less.
I think we will know one way or the other in the next 2 weeks.
My bet is on #2 - but only for small stakes reflecting my confidence.
We do have to respect Russias musical balancing of efforts on 3 or 4 different separate but related battlefields which must be unbalancing Ukraine. A lesson in how to create uncertainty in an environment of pervasive ISR. That in itself says something positive about the quality of Russian higher command.
Does Russia have use of China’s massive satellite surveillance and other ISR assets?
China doesn't have much assets for monitoring Europe, and why would they? Despite the propaganda they aren't interested in world conquest and control like Uncle Sam is.
Your theory sounds outrageous, but we live in a day when crazy theories often turn out to be fundamentally true !
Do you have any links to underpin your statement:
"Israel is now a CHINESE Proxy, get over this idea if you think otherwise, China has invested $1 Trillion USD in Israel over the past 20 years, If they didn't trust Israel they wouldn't have made the investments."
I did, but I just scanned the article. I will go back and read it more carefully and follow the links. There are many rabbit trails on the internet.
@metoo - The link I originally followed was the one in your original post, not the bilbobitch link. I've read through that one now and some of the links in the comments. Very speculative, but worth considering. One thing I do agree with is that Israel and the Jews are are the center of many events, but we probably would not agreee as to why that is and what it means.
could you please recommend non-google search engine that we can use to find the truth.
Any thoughts on the UK sending DU Shells to Ukraine? My fears are if they succeed in this provocation, then the US and Germany will surely follow suit.
By themselves those shells don't seem very useful, they already sent them anti-armor weapons, so its clearly a political move only in constantly moving the red lines closes and closer to Moscow itself.
All it will do is spread toxic environmental damage all over the place, and Ukraine is getting more and more toxic from all the weapons used already.
The Project for a New American Century called for using any means to prevent Ukraine from reuniting with Russia, but if that couldn't be arranged, then to destroy Ukraine so it would be a useless burden on Russia for decades. Contaminating the Donbas with DU would do the trick. And no danger of the US/UK being charged with war crimes by their wholly owned ICC fraud.
True indeed my friend...good to meet you again grr.
Sorry guys I still haven’t read this. I absolutely will but when I read this author I need to be in a meditative state. And of course all of Simplicius’s stuff is well thought out and long.
I did want to say something tho. Last year my buddy said to me “Even if Russia wins we will be sold lies. The media at the very least will spin it as a stalemate or Ukraine win.”
I said that’s a wonderful point and you are correct. All the countries being held hostage by the US hegemonic power will fall under the spell. The vast majority of their citizens will not bat an eye even if Putin sits on the throne in Kiev. They will never know.
I said but their reach has a water’s edge. It only goes so far as Western Nations. Here is what we must watch for my friend. Look to see how every country outside Russia and the US sphere reacts. They will not be influenced by propaganda and lies. They have their own Intel. If it appears Russia is on the ropes they will either cozy up to the West/US or keep quiet/neutral.
But now we see what’s happening. These countries are actively seeking to partner with Russia and China. They have no qualms about cutting the propaganda paper Tiger out. I think we know who’s winning boys. I understand it’s not over yet.
Again, Apologies again for being off topic. Simplicius may be the most enlightened author I have found. Never forget always look to the zeitgeist for answers; just remember to look behind the curtain.
In the West, now at least 95% (if not even more of the people are NOT interested by this war at all).Ukraine fatigue (even in the msm very rare front pages except in fin world or quality papers FT WSJ NYT WAPO DT), but vast majority of people don't care about Ukraine and never read these papers, they care more and more about their politicians giving away billions for nothing, high inflation(increasing again), energy prices for next winter etc..lot of people are turning anti Zelensky, very few ukies flags seen in my city ( a Nato capital), pensions reforms like in France, other issues in other countries are taking the lead in the news circle.
We have the opposite feeling because we are following this war since day one and for some like me since Maidan, eventhough I'm neither Russian or ukie, never been in Russia or Ukraine in my life.
More and more people are now turning on Russia side because too many lies, people are not idiots(NS Sabotage), VVP XI meeting, Iran Saudis agreement, even today Saudis Assad. Brazilian president will be in China for..5 days where he will receive instructions from XI for his part of the global South (am south + central), brics is starting to be taken seriously even by our worse ennemies, yuan slowly eating USD dominance(it will take 15/20 years) etc etc..even more since the Hague arrest order against VVP which even Putin haters find ridicule...Russia is not waging war against 404 but is the World leader waging war against what a lot of people hate: NATO EU Euro UK US politicians and 99 % of whores 'journos'.
Thank you for saying US politicians, Americans are not bad, but our gov't sure is along w/the MSM.