I will never support or be enthusiastic about war. No matter how you look at it, the Ukraine conflict means death and destruction for both sides. Ukraine will most certainly be destroyed, and I cannot consider that "good" in any sense of the word. Necessary? Unavoidable? Possibly. Most certainly not good and not to be celebrated IMHO.
Millions of people will suffer for decades, because the US managed to sieze power in Ukraine, by installong the fascist regime. Destroying the fascists ruling the country by destroying the country itself is not a good outcome. Ideally, Russia prevents the decades of subversion the US has subjected Ukraine to, and none of this ever happens. Obviously they were busy with their own problems, and you can never match the bribes of the US money printing machine. So now they have to take down the fascists by "shooting out the country from under them".
By the way: Right now as we speak, Russians are killing my fellow Trans-Carpathian Hungarians, because the Kiev regime uses them as meat for the grinder, and uses the Russian army to genocide its minorities. This war isn't "good". It's necessary from the Russian perspective, and perhaps from even the world's perspective, but it's not good.
You remind me of the Neocons, just not the American type. War is never good, but it is sometimes necessary and unavoidable. We should all work towards preventing it becoming necessary and unavoidable the next time.
regarding ukraine short range air defense survival,
i suspect that long range target acquisition and 'fix" is performed by nato assets within the medium exctended air defense system (meads) architecture. maybe feeds from aegis ashore (poland and rumania) , awacs flying over poland (limited look down!) and orbital sensors, implying ukraine is integrating and using nato/us extended air defense sensors and a variety of data links for diverse intercept functions.....
None of those systems have the range to reach from Poland to the theater of operations around Donbass. If/when the fighting was around Kiev they could maybe eke it out. AWACS top out at 450km, maybe 600km for high flying large (bombers) targets due to simple radar horizon limitations. Ground radars from Poland certainly aren't reaching anywhere even close to there. Maybe a couple hundred kilometers at best. Donbass is 1200-1500km from there.
Orbital is more realistic, SARs / Thermal detection satellites could possibly detect aircraft flights BUT, those satellites aren't geostationary as they have to be close to the earth's orbit (200-400km) for their EO optics to work, and geostationary sats have to be a ridiculous 40,000km 'altitude' / distance from earth which wouldn't allow any types of optics to see anything.
So the problem is, those EO/SARS satellites can't just sit above the plane and 'track it in real time' and follow it. They make passes and can photograph on each pass which takes an hour or two. So that type of granularity seen in the video I posted in one of the articles, where they are tracking a plane in real time can't really come from that type of asset.
sorry I should mention I had completely forgotten that long ago when I first posted that video I had already figured that based on the evidence/terrain/etc it was likely that took place around Kherson region. And Kherson region IS in fact just roughly reachable by AWACs on Romanian border as it's only about 250km. So that is definitely possible if that was the case, and various Elint/Istar type flights do occur there regularly
i used conjecture. most of the 'threat warning' capacity of the usa is 'sensitive and close hold'.
the usefulness of the iris-t and nsms which are ground launched air to air missiles with longer range is based on cuing from other sensors (meads) than the radar linked to the launcher.
for example, aegis ashore was only to look at 'missile from iran'.....
that said exposing the capacity for russian observation is a serious gain for russia and china.
For low altitude flying there are tens of thousands of stingers and similar, so that's the reason why RU cannot fly on low altitudes over UKR controlled territory.
For high altitude flying (out of stinger range) AWACS support from Romania is probably enough, which prevents RU from flying on high altitudes over UKR controlled territory.
The main reason of course is that they are saving pilots, because even if plane is destroyed, if pilot ejects into RU space he is mostly safe, but if plane is over UKR controlled ground they will be paraded on TV, harassed and so on
Thanks for all you do. The US and it's golden billion vassal states is running out of tricks and foreign cannon fodder so we go to the ICC which did Milosevic but not Clinton destroying any creds they might have had. The US and top vassals are now trying to get Russia banned from the Olympics, more admissions of impotence. The US is now threatening sanctions on airlines which can overfly Russia giving them a competitive edge. Today I watch Van du Lying thanking the Minor vassal state of Canada for training the Ukraine military since 2015. The set looked like the general dynamics factory in London Ontario where they build death machine's for the head chopper's and the preppie university makes students get vaccinated after making financial commitments to the school. Moody's, probably the ratings agency with the most integrity just downgraded the entire US banking industrial complexes. Switzerland who gave up the neutrality it's had since Napoleon and hides more money than anywhere has its second largest Bank going under and all European Banks are zombie Banks. The empire of extraction, built on the giant financial fraud that is fractional reserve banking backed by the army of goons military and financial is finally coming to an end after half a millennium...hoorah!
Regarding the Sitrep. If the Russians do not have a very clear picture of what Ukraine is doing around Bakhmut, then all the expectation that they have surveilance/ISR somewhat comparable to the US is wrong.
So if the Russians are wondering IF a breakin is being prepared by the AFU, that is worrisome. Certainly ISR will not tell you enemy intentions, but it will certainly enemy capacity.
If a breakin is being prepared, then the AFU is concentrating people and equipment in densities that invite attack. If they are able to concentrate unmolested while we are told by some that the Russian hesitate to concentrate for fear of HIMARS, glidebombs, artillery fires etc. then the Russian situation is more tenuous than we imagine.
If the Russians are as capable and prepared as we hope, they should be seeing these concentrations as a great opportunity.
I don't entirely trust the Russian Army. they have a long tradition of being more intent on fighting their internal enemies than external. The Russian Army would like to see Wagner take a beating. Institutionally, Wagner success is a threat to the MOD. I imagine there are a lot of people in Russia watching these developments who share the same thoughts. I suspect there is already uncertain trust for the Russian Army as an institution within Russian society.
If this counter attack occurs, the AFU goal will be to collect good video footage of the AFU advancing and rescuing the trapped garrison at Bakhmut. That will be success for them.
Actually I think a lot of these guys are actually Ukrainian-Americans and Ukrainian-Canadians working for the Ukrainian Embassies in their country. In the US, the Democratic Party DNC is heavily infiltrated with Ukrainians, who were deeply involved in the Russiagate-DNC Hacking hoax and who had contacts with the US Ukrainian Embassy. I suspect they're also heavily involved with the "NAFO Bros" movement. Scum, the lot.
Yeah, that's another guy I ignore. Martyanov can't stand him. :-)
So your earlier reply was not to me? I've noticed that there is a reply block and then there is a reply button to each comment. I haven't done any replying to comments in my Substack, so don't know how that looks yet.
Naw, I was replying to Danf who appeared to be using Prigozhin's talking points from the latest Prigozhin video where he says Russian MOD is sabotaging Wagner
Oh yah, I'm a troll... thats it. And you are what ? The Gate Keeper ?
What I'm interested in, is discovering the truth about the quality of the Regular Russian Army and the SMO. None of us has any real conclusive information that is not filtered by the agendas of group/people/interests who are closer to the action.
Russia is just 20 years removed from a very destructive decade that could have accomplished the neocon dream of "decolonizing" Russia. There is still significant damage in Russian institutions, economy and culture, both from 70 years of communism and the attempt to dismantal Russia by "helping" it 1991-2000.
Russia appears to be winning this war. But it's not proven to me yet.
How the war is won is part of success or failure.
Not being able or perhaps just not willing to close the deal in Bakhmut may be unimportant or may be an opportunity for Ukraine. Ukraine has shown itself to be cunning, willing to take risks and indifferent to losses. Russia should not be complacent.
I am happy to believe the Russian Regular Army is all seeing and has everything under control. That is, after all, what they tell the outside world.
Putin has tried push reform on the Russian Army in the past with only partial success. I believe there is a good chance that one of the purposes of Wagner is to put pressure on the Army to continue reforming and to shake it out of a garrison mentality. The kind of war the Soviets fought is no longer an option for the Russians. Their demographics are some of the worst on the planet. Wagner is perhaps something of a model. Clever use of human factors to achieve both combat power and economy of force.
Nobody knows what Prigozhin's role is. He's not a commander. hes is not the owner of Wagner. He may just be an effective PR guy. He makes me laugh (in a good way). I listen to what he says the same way I listen to any corporate hack and assume he is always talking his book.
When he says he's worried about his flanks or that his people are excluded from the chain of command, it may be BS, it may be clever misdirections or it may be real. If it's real and hes talking his book, it's something to be aware of.
Personally, I'm inclined to believe it's misdirection and that the Russians would like nothing better than for Ukraine to launch a significant breakin attack. But neither you or I know anything real and concrete about whats happening on the battlefield.
If such an attack occurs and catches the Russian off balance, it tells us something. If such an attack occurs and is squashed, that also tells us something. I'm hoping for the latter, but don't yet discount the possibility of the former.
Oh, I'm so impressed by internet warriors and their clever use of language. Try presenting a sentence with some useful content. You may have something useful to say and I'd like to hear it.
The real joke is the notion that the Russians aren't aware of every single thing Ukraine does. No one wants to give Russia credit for having satellites over the battlefield, the equivalent of AWACs intelligence aircraft, drones, Special Forces forward observers and infiltration units, and the whole nine yards of battlefield C4ISR just like the US does. And probably spies right in the offices of the Ukrainian command structure built up over years since 2014 or before.
I'm not aware on anything the Ukrainians have done on the battlefield that the Russians weren't fully aware of before it even happened. The Kherson and Kharkiv offensives were ineffective precisely because of this. Once in a while, of course, stuff happens and a Russian tactical unit might be caught unawares somewhere, but overall the Russians are way ahead on battlefield intelligence, even given the US ISR assets freely supplied to Ukraine. And as the drone incident proves, any time Russia wants to eliminate the US assets it can do so.
Well remember the Sitrep is my statements, not the Russian MoD--don't confuse the two. I have no idea what Russian MoD actually knows. When I say that I'm uncertain as to Ukraine's movements around Bakhmut that doesn't mean Russian MoD is uncertain. They could be, or they could very well know all about it. I may have implied they were uncertain (accidentally or not), but they may very well have it fully covered. I was simply giving options/possibilities, etc.
Also, many of the sources I quote which are wondering about an offensive, are not higher up Russian sources but DPR etc--for instance Khodakovsky. So they are not 'in the know' about the higher operational strategic imperatives because that's not even their zone of control or frontline theater. The people actually in the know, real Russian MoD generals are not going to be on Telegram telling you their plans and what they know--so I think that's where some of your confusion is coming from.
With that said, the Russian situation does have some tenuousness to the extent that no one has ever claimed Russian ISR capabilities are superior to the COMBINED power of the West/NATO/Five-Eyes/US, etc. In my articles on the topic, I've made it clear that Russia can't compete with hundreds/thousands of Western intelligence satellites all combined and being used in unison in Ukraine. So if Russia has to hide from HIMARS, and Ukraine doesn't have to hide as much from Russian reprisals, that's not entirely a controversial thought. Depending which types of intelligence satellites we're counting, it's basically dozens vs. hundreds for Russia/NATO assets.
However, Ukraine has never shown an ability yet to concentrate truly heavy armor in a clandestine way. Only fast moving, easy to hide MRAP and ICV / IMV style vehicles (Humvees, Wolfhounds, Kirpis, etc. etc.)
Secondly, much of the footage of 'large concentrations' that AFU has ever posted in the past, has always been fake propaganda footage not actually anywhere close to the frontline. This is often exposed by the fact that for instance, none of the troops wear colored arm bands in the videos, and things of this nature, which gives it away as training from the 'rear areas' (beyond Odessa or west Ukraine, or not even in Ukraine, etc). So be wary of that as well.
As for the Wagner stuff, sure I get you're repeating soundbytes and talking points from the latest Prigozhin propaganda video--and who knows it may even be true, to an extent. But at the end of the day, Prigozhin doesn't actually know what's happening in the MoD. He's not even the commander of his own forces, and admits that he's been 'locked out' of communications, so how can he even know anything about MoD's strategies, needs, etc.
As for your last point, sure that's their goal and any even slight pushback of territory will be viewed as a big moral boost. Unfortunately, since Wagner has explicitly conquered a large 'crumple zone' exactly for that purpose, we'll likely see some propaganda victories because typically those types of areas are designed to be abandoned/retreated from by fire, so there's good chance AFU can regain some of the 'padding' in the NW that Wagner recently got. But will they actually break into Bakhmut or even liberate Soledar as they are now claiming to be able to do--that's very unlikely.
"--so I think that's where some of your confusion is coming from"
I don't have any confusion. I know the difference between your opinion, my opinion, and the Russian MoD's opinion. However, in the absence of a stated Russian MoD opinion, I rely on my opinion - which is what I would do if I were the Russians. So far that usually ends up being correct. :-)
As for ISR, the US has superior ISR over the whole world. Russia has equal if not superior ISR over Ukraine. In other words, Russian ISR is more than adequate to keep Russia informed of Ukraine moves. Hiding from HIMARS doesn't mean Russia can't find HIMARS. People need to remember that there aren't that many HIMARS in Ukraine and Russia has better things to do than find every one of them before they're a problem. Just because Russian ISR is comprehensive doesn't mean they can see every square inch in high resolution of Ukraine. Hiding stuff is still possible. Hiding an entire offensive is not.
No, I'm not repeating "soundbites from Prigozhin". I don't listen to Prigozhin because he's in the same boat as the DPR guys - out of the loop of Russian operational plans. Not to mention that he trolls a lot. Don't know where you got the idea I was.
Huh? No, I'm replying to Danf not you, Lol. Sorry for the confusion, pretty sure I hit 'reply' to DanF, but I'm still getting used to this reply system on Substack, it can be confusing with the various 'lines' leading to each comment. I actually prefer the more 'straight forward' comment systems on MoA/Saker's site.
Yes, the Substack/Slashdot threaded style reply system does pose the problem of "mistaken ID reply", but it is OVERWHELMINGLY easier to follow a thread of conversation, than the "Stream of Consciousness" that time of posting types of systems (MoA/ArsTechnica) force you to endure.
Just accept that mistakes will be made, and keep up your level of excellence!
The Orekhov offensive seems like it was a test offensive of sorts, using NATOs combined arms blitzkrieg tactics they seem to think are the key for wining any conflict. The smoke part was confusing; isn't that usually used when your position is revealed and for you to move out of the way to safety? But even then its for line of sight only right? What affect is that supposed to achieve against artillery and air strike on your smoke group?
Here's video of Russian 155th Marines using the same smoke tactic https://www.bitchute.com/video/bQSsMHobSIba/ you pump smoke from your engine to advance under cover so enemy can't see what to hit.
You're right doesn't have as big of an effect on artillery although it can still mess with attempts to fire-correct the arty by way of drone, depending how wide the smoke spreads.
"The powers that be are watching Ukraine’s collapse and know the last big ‘hurrah’ hail mary throw of the vaunted ‘Spring Offensive’ will be the true beginning of the end, at which point Zelensky will be under great pressure from various sides to begin formal overtures of peace/compromise toward Putin/Russia."
Or, they really believe the offensive will be succesful, and in their pursuit of the "regime change" strategy, they do not want to give Putin an out of the resulting precarious situation (in the form of possible peace talks that they hope he will be begging for).
"Initially, US/NATO appeared deterred by the events and cancelled planned future flights. However, they did end up sending up a new RQ-4 Global Hawk, but this time it flew with transponders on and much farther away from Russian territory."
Does the RQ-4 Global Hawk not always fly with transponders on? I see it every day on Flightradar.
Xi and Putin will be watching together the collapse of the banking system with a champagne cup, after Credit Suisse tonight, two more major banks in Europe would be the next to fall.
Bloomberg
TWO MAJOR BANKS IN EUROPE EXAMINE SCENARIOS OF CONTAGION, LOOK TO ECB, FED TO STEP IN WITH STATEMENTS OF SUPPORT -SOURCES
Breaking: TASS Putin '' we did not use hypersonic missiles in Ukraine'
1. For your first idea, it's possible, but less likely than the other explanation. Reason is, if they really thought they were going to win that confidently, the arrest warrant wouldn't have come out of the blue now, at such a desperate time. Their victory would be self-evident as they already explained to us for a long time that if Putin loses this war, he will collapse and be overthrown anyway, an arrest warrant would not matter for that whatsoever. They have told us since last year that a loss would mean instant fall from power. So that's why to me the arrest warrant much more likely points to their getting nervous over *Ukraine's* forthcoming attempts at compromise rather than Russia's.
2.The RQ4 does usually fly with them on, that's the whole point. The reason the MQ9 Reaper was shot down was because it flew with transponders off and approached Crimea. So I was simply making the point that, US clearly backed down on their attempt to fly with transponders off, and have now returned to flying with them *ON* again.
2. If the RQ4 usually flies with them on (while the other smaller ones such as the MQ9 do not), and this one time the RQ4 again flew with them on, how does it follow that "the US clearly backed down on their attempt to fly with transponders off"? It simply does not. For all we know there were dozens of MQ9s flying in the vicinity of Crimea on that day with their transponders off.
As I understand the US substituted the MQ9 for RQ4 that day, there were no other RQ4's flying. The US typically only has one asset of that type in the Black Sea on any given day. So my point was that, rather than thinking about it in terms of RQ4 or MQ9 which is irrelevant since they have nearly identical capabilities, it's more conducive to think of it as a daily mission. And so the point is, the US flew daily missions of these signal gathering craft with transponders on previously. On this particular day they flew a daily mission with the transponder off and got shot down. The very next day, they once again returned to flying daily missions with transponders on. It's simple to understand. Their transponder off experiment failed and they limped back to flying with transponders on with tail between their legs.
"The US typically only has one asset of that type in the Black Sea on any given day"
We cannot possibly know this for a fact. All we can know is they have one daily asset there with its transponder on, and it is the RQ4. Also, there was literally an RQ4 flying in the early hours of the same morning of the MQ9 incident. And I've never seen an MQ9 on Flightradar. Again, for all we know they are flying MQ9s daily and continue to do so even after the incident, albeit further out.
Well that is possible but it's extremely 'convenient' for that argument that during the MQ9 incident there was magically no RQ4 present anymore, which much more strongly supports my point that they fly a daily mission with only one asset at a time *particularly* because it serves no strategic purpose to fly more than one given that one will gather enough of the data you need, so that's a really 'reaching' argument IMO. It's fairly safe to assume they fly one mission--on that day they switched to a transponders off mission and they did it on purpose with an MQ9 because they knew it would get shot down, or at least have a very high chance of it, so they switched to a much cheaper model so as not to lose the RQ4 $$$.
Well, as to the alleged Ukrainian 20 brigades and their upcoming attempt to "deblock" Bakhmut, all I can say is: "Good luck with that, Ukraine..."
Which is to say: "That ain't gonna happen".
OTOH, if Ukraine does manage to throw back Wagner from their "crumple zones", you can expect the gloom-and-doom concern trolls to be out in force claiming that Russia has lost the war and must now sue for peace on the "Korean DMZ" concept.
"That ain't gonna happen", either.
Neither is Xi going to convince Putin to negotiate with Ukraine - if he even intends to. Russia's security needs require taking control of all of Ukraine, deposing the neo-Nazi/NATO regime, and putting a Military District in Western Ukraine, right on the Polish border, with a couple hundred thousand Russian troops, a thousand Russian tanks, and airfields with Russian MiG-31Ks armed with Kinzhals and a Russian navy base in Odessa.
Then Putin can talk to the West and say, "OK, you got your Aegis Ashore in Poland and Romania - we just countered that. And I hope you don't like it. Now what are you going to do about it?"
Chinese ''peace plan' is on some point a total non starter as they divide Kiev in two like Berlin (in 4).
The only good point is: "all sanctions must be removed", will never ever happen, Medvedev talked about at least 50 years (they will stay).Maybe US EU will cancel some because they really need this or that item which is vital for them.
Another Chinese plan which is a total non starter ' respecting the territorial integrity of 404', point which is contradictory to their Kiev dmz.
I agree. First of all, there is no proof Xi is presenting a peace plan to Putin. Second. if he does, Putin will likely explain the situation vis-a-vis NATO neocons being in control of Ukraine and therefore peace is not an option. Third, even if Russia pays lip service to any peace plan, there will be no movement on it until the war is effectively over. Fourth, I think Xi understands this now and therefore he's just going to present this peace plan for PR value, knowing it's not going to work because both sides don't want it. Finally, if Russia does agree to any such "DMZ" plan, Russia will have lost the war. So I don't see them doing so regardless of what the Chinese want and how much Russia wants to placate China. As Martyanov says, China is second fiddle to Russia in military terms and Russia will not sacrifice its security needs to satisfy China's geopolitical goals.
Agree it is a 'good cop, bad cop' scenario..message being: ''look Global South, and even some Western countries, we are peacemakers and only neocons-nato-eu are warmongers even up to the destruction of their economy and financial sector''.
Yesterday former EU head Juncker(Luxembourg, very small country indeed but a big laundering fiscal paradise for the US): he said, we must start to negociate with Russia.
Don't forget that these western oligarchs and politicos only care for: their money, their banks, their greed, their confort, their privileges. If they( at one moment) have to chose between 404 and these items, let me tell you they will not hesitate one second.
Only the 4 neocons in D C, Stoltenberg and idiots like Duda + Baltic countries will suddenly be left alone.
Yep that's what I'm worried about, as I wrote above in answer to somebody--those crumple zones were taken specifically for the purpose of allowing fall-back which will likely happen to bear the brunt of an initial assault. So there's good chance we'll see withdrawals from those 'padded' zones and of course all the concern trolls and doomers will have a field day with that, despite the fact that each advance through the padding designed explicitly for that, will cost AFU massive amounts of lives/materiel.
Re Xi's visit to Moscow. I recall that Putin had made a short notice trip to meet Xi in Beijing a few days / weeks before the SMO started. Probably to inform Xi of Russia's plans and confirm support from Xi. Given how the US has been ratcheting up anti-China war talk, it is similarly probable that Xi is doing the reverse of what Putin did. China may be planning some move on Taiwan and Xi is informing Putin of that first and ensuring the two are in sync against the empire of chaos. It's surprising nobody has thought of this angle.
President Putin has, I believe, stated in recent times that privately owned element of the military industrial complex which are underperforming are liable to have their ownership status reviewed.
Putin's initial years in power were associated with the political neutering of the oligarchs of neoliberal financial capitalism (the "Semibankirschina") and it is interesting to note the President Xi's crackdown on corruption has also strongly targeted oligarchs whose activities might negatively effect financial stability.
5) It is interesting to note with regard to NATO's Yugoslavia bombing campaign that I think Colonel Doug MacGregor has said that they they started with list of static military infrastructure that were destroyed relatively quickly and as a result they moved on to targets of much lower significance (i.e. probably not that militarily relevant). I think I also read somewhere that it was also a fairly ineffective campaign when it came to the actual destruction of military hardware (rather than buildings).
They are trying to push Deripaska against VVP, as they just decided to put major (220%?)tariffs on aluminium. Even canadian former Alcan was against but W SS Freeland is in ctrl of (occupied by 404) kanada.
As far as geo-locating the Reaper crash sight, another cross-check occurred to me this morning. Google earth will show that the shelf on which Crimea is perched begins dropping precipitously only 20 kilometers or so from the southern shores. For the wreckage to be at 900m, it can't be much further offshore than that, or it would be twice as deep. So assuming the drone spent at least some of its time trying to escape, it must have been very close to land indeed when the intercept started.
With respect to history Dominic Lieven’s Russia Against Napoleon seems a fair take by a British / western author (albeit his ancestry seems to be Baltic German). It covers only the Napoleonic War but shows that the Russian Army defeated Napoleon and then reached Paris. The victory was not only caused by winter. It even details aspects such as Tsar Alexander visiting French wounded in hospital, as well as how Russian society mobilised and was organised to fight the war. Quite different to usual British histories of the period that focus on the Iberian Peninsula War, Wellington, Nelson and Waterloo.
Obviously, all of the works on WW2 by Antony Beevor are full of anti Soviet / anti Russian propaganda and very much need to be avoided. If you believe him, every Soviet soldier was seemingly committing rape and other outrages almost constantly. Which many British people seem to lap up as gospel truth.
History of Russia, have a look at this website https://histography.ru/en/#8620101 for chronology and overview, most topics before 1905 can then be checked for more details even with wikipedia or history channels in YT.
This doesn t make any sense. Where do AFU stores it s 20 brigades în Yar, Slaviansk-Kramatorsk region? We are talking about 50k+ men and equipement în a very small area. That not double when the russian just can bomb you with kalibrs into Kingdom come. Plus we allways talk about tens of thousands of soldiers but when we look at the videos we don t see that many soldiers. It was said that AFU had 80k soldiers aroumd Bahmut but they were beaten by Wagner with ,what, 30k soldiers? WTF? În WW2 you could see a sea of soldiers but here? Something doesn t add up. Why do the russians have to take soldiers from the south front to help Wagner, were are the 500k soldiers? How does Ukraine still have men? 50k here, 11k there, 15k over there. Where the fuck are they getting them? And finally, why are they still fighting, wtf is wrong with those stupid ukranians, don t they have internet, don t they know that they are uncle s Sam bitch, that their wifes have gone în the West and are sucking foreign cock, that their country is beyond fucked? Are they that dumb and brainwashed? Can t understand these bandera fucks. Strange war indeed.
404 already mobilized 10 times (maybe 11, I'm not sure).Which means 10 x let's say 80/100k= 800k at least as total + their departing regular army on 02/24/22(250k), + maybe 50-75k Nato + independent mercenaries or real fake pure nato cia+ sas+ dgse, poles etc ukie military police, national guard, civil protection units etc...it is far more than Russia.I don't even count the nazis like azov, kraken pravy sektor and co, majority are now kia-wia or they left for Europe as fake refugees future gladio usefull idiots agents for nato ops in the EU when the very same EU will collapse due banking crisis or whatever false flag they will launch( see Bologna Station attack, Madrid Station, Belgium 'tueurs du brabant', Aldo Moro and many more like Charlie, Bataclan ?).
Of course they are not all equal in quality(from the kidnapped mobilized in the streets of Odessa , to the 16 years old or the 60 years old sent to the various meatgrinder).But they still have some 'elites' left and some better trained in nato countries as well, but not all by far are elites.How many, I have no idea but MOD for sure knows how many and where they hide.
Well firstly note that I made a typo and corrected it to 10+ brigades (still a lot).
As for taking soldiers from the south, I didn't say they did or WOULD have to do so, I was simply implying that *could* be the case. For all we know, Russian MOD may use fresh mobiks instead from the batch who have been sitting out. But I was simply going off the principle that they are sitting out for a reason, and the Russian MoD does not wish to commit them yet (for a variety of reasons). Secondly, it's likely not "500k soldiers", that was some claims from Macgregor and others. Ukraine says that Russia has 125-150k still sitting outside. My estimate was it could be 200-250k at the most, but at this point could be less as well. We don't know with 100% certainty.
The 500k thing came from the rumors of 'stealth mobilization' happening but personally I never believed those rumors, I simply reported them for the sake of breadth but to me there was no real evidence that mass stealth mobilization occurred, but rather the regular announced mobilization of 300k, many of which have already been committed to the front.
As for Ukraine, well they definitely have at least another 100-150k in the reserves in various places such as: 1. in the west of the country 2. in other european countries currently training 3. on the long northern border, as territorial guards (guarding Belarus and Russian border), etc.
So much doesnt make any sense. And considering how much ISR both sides have you'd think spotting tens of thousands of men and machines over the course of days and weeks would be straightforward. But I guess not. I frequently wonder how day to day life is on the front. Where do the men sleep? Eat? Shit? There must be movement constantly to FOB which cant possibly be more than 50km from the front. One day we hear about the marvels of Delta and Nettle and ISR and the next a conglomeration the size of a village is invisible. This goes for both sides by the way
Unfortunately, the SD is from an autotranslate, so acronyms like that won't be picked up and it's difficult to know what "SD" stood for in Russian. However, contextually I suspect it likely is referring to UR-77 Meteorit or something similar (perhaps 'SD' standing for something like line charges or something associated with the UR-77 or a similar system). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UR-77_Meteorit
The reason is they used the word 'charges' and this is the only thing I can think of that literally fires what's called a 'line charge' to clear mines. And 3 charges would make sense as each 'charge' of the UR-77 clears a straight line of hundreds of meters so three of them in a row could clear a path to the next waypoint/cover. https://youtu.be/E_89Y-I8fPs?t=21
Let’s do…this💙🇷🇺❤️
I will never support or be enthusiastic about war. No matter how you look at it, the Ukraine conflict means death and destruction for both sides. Ukraine will most certainly be destroyed, and I cannot consider that "good" in any sense of the word. Necessary? Unavoidable? Possibly. Most certainly not good and not to be celebrated IMHO.
"Ukraine will most certainly be destroyed, and I cannot consider that "good" in any sense of the word."
If that is your opinion then I hope you place the blame for the NAZI states destruction where it belongs (and it's not in Russia).
Millions of people will suffer for decades, because the US managed to sieze power in Ukraine, by installong the fascist regime. Destroying the fascists ruling the country by destroying the country itself is not a good outcome. Ideally, Russia prevents the decades of subversion the US has subjected Ukraine to, and none of this ever happens. Obviously they were busy with their own problems, and you can never match the bribes of the US money printing machine. So now they have to take down the fascists by "shooting out the country from under them".
By the way: Right now as we speak, Russians are killing my fellow Trans-Carpathian Hungarians, because the Kiev regime uses them as meat for the grinder, and uses the Russian army to genocide its minorities. This war isn't "good". It's necessary from the Russian perspective, and perhaps from even the world's perspective, but it's not good.
You remind me of the Neocons, just not the American type. War is never good, but it is sometimes necessary and unavoidable. We should all work towards preventing it becoming necessary and unavoidable the next time.
regarding ukraine short range air defense survival,
i suspect that long range target acquisition and 'fix" is performed by nato assets within the medium exctended air defense system (meads) architecture. maybe feeds from aegis ashore (poland and rumania) , awacs flying over poland (limited look down!) and orbital sensors, implying ukraine is integrating and using nato/us extended air defense sensors and a variety of data links for diverse intercept functions.....
None of those systems have the range to reach from Poland to the theater of operations around Donbass. If/when the fighting was around Kiev they could maybe eke it out. AWACS top out at 450km, maybe 600km for high flying large (bombers) targets due to simple radar horizon limitations. Ground radars from Poland certainly aren't reaching anywhere even close to there. Maybe a couple hundred kilometers at best. Donbass is 1200-1500km from there.
Orbital is more realistic, SARs / Thermal detection satellites could possibly detect aircraft flights BUT, those satellites aren't geostationary as they have to be close to the earth's orbit (200-400km) for their EO optics to work, and geostationary sats have to be a ridiculous 40,000km 'altitude' / distance from earth which wouldn't allow any types of optics to see anything.
So the problem is, those EO/SARS satellites can't just sit above the plane and 'track it in real time' and follow it. They make passes and can photograph on each pass which takes an hour or two. So that type of granularity seen in the video I posted in one of the articles, where they are tracking a plane in real time can't really come from that type of asset.
sorry I should mention I had completely forgotten that long ago when I first posted that video I had already figured that based on the evidence/terrain/etc it was likely that took place around Kherson region. And Kherson region IS in fact just roughly reachable by AWACs on Romanian border as it's only about 250km. So that is definitely possible if that was the case, and various Elint/Istar type flights do occur there regularly
i used conjecture. most of the 'threat warning' capacity of the usa is 'sensitive and close hold'.
the usefulness of the iris-t and nsms which are ground launched air to air missiles with longer range is based on cuing from other sensors (meads) than the radar linked to the launcher.
for example, aegis ashore was only to look at 'missile from iran'.....
that said exposing the capacity for russian observation is a serious gain for russia and china.
For low altitude flying there are tens of thousands of stingers and similar, so that's the reason why RU cannot fly on low altitudes over UKR controlled territory.
For high altitude flying (out of stinger range) AWACS support from Romania is probably enough, which prevents RU from flying on high altitudes over UKR controlled territory.
The main reason of course is that they are saving pilots, because even if plane is destroyed, if pilot ejects into RU space he is mostly safe, but if plane is over UKR controlled ground they will be paraded on TV, harassed and so on
Thanks for all you do. The US and it's golden billion vassal states is running out of tricks and foreign cannon fodder so we go to the ICC which did Milosevic but not Clinton destroying any creds they might have had. The US and top vassals are now trying to get Russia banned from the Olympics, more admissions of impotence. The US is now threatening sanctions on airlines which can overfly Russia giving them a competitive edge. Today I watch Van du Lying thanking the Minor vassal state of Canada for training the Ukraine military since 2015. The set looked like the general dynamics factory in London Ontario where they build death machine's for the head chopper's and the preppie university makes students get vaccinated after making financial commitments to the school. Moody's, probably the ratings agency with the most integrity just downgraded the entire US banking industrial complexes. Switzerland who gave up the neutrality it's had since Napoleon and hides more money than anywhere has its second largest Bank going under and all European Banks are zombie Banks. The empire of extraction, built on the giant financial fraud that is fractional reserve banking backed by the army of goons military and financial is finally coming to an end after half a millennium...hoorah!
Regarding the Sitrep. If the Russians do not have a very clear picture of what Ukraine is doing around Bakhmut, then all the expectation that they have surveilance/ISR somewhat comparable to the US is wrong.
So if the Russians are wondering IF a breakin is being prepared by the AFU, that is worrisome. Certainly ISR will not tell you enemy intentions, but it will certainly enemy capacity.
If a breakin is being prepared, then the AFU is concentrating people and equipment in densities that invite attack. If they are able to concentrate unmolested while we are told by some that the Russian hesitate to concentrate for fear of HIMARS, glidebombs, artillery fires etc. then the Russian situation is more tenuous than we imagine.
If the Russians are as capable and prepared as we hope, they should be seeing these concentrations as a great opportunity.
I don't entirely trust the Russian Army. they have a long tradition of being more intent on fighting their internal enemies than external. The Russian Army would like to see Wagner take a beating. Institutionally, Wagner success is a threat to the MOD. I imagine there are a lot of people in Russia watching these developments who share the same thoughts. I suspect there is already uncertain trust for the Russian Army as an institution within Russian society.
If this counter attack occurs, the AFU goal will be to collect good video footage of the AFU advancing and rescuing the trapped garrison at Bakhmut. That will be success for them.
I see the concern trolls are not limited to MoA...
Strelkov + belingcat trolls are part of the infowar as written above by the author of this 5* article.
Actually I think a lot of these guys are actually Ukrainian-Americans and Ukrainian-Canadians working for the Ukrainian Embassies in their country. In the US, the Democratic Party DNC is heavily infiltrated with Ukrainians, who were deeply involved in the Russiagate-DNC Hacking hoax and who had contacts with the US Ukrainian Embassy. I suspect they're also heavily involved with the "NAFO Bros" movement. Scum, the lot.
Did you see Strelkov's latest video? He's hit rock bottom. He believes the Putin that visited Mariupol was a body double https://www.bitchute.com/video/4GBtCOBuAkKA/
Yeah, that's another guy I ignore. Martyanov can't stand him. :-)
So your earlier reply was not to me? I've noticed that there is a reply block and then there is a reply button to each comment. I haven't done any replying to comments in my Substack, so don't know how that looks yet.
Naw, I was replying to Danf who appeared to be using Prigozhin's talking points from the latest Prigozhin video where he says Russian MOD is sabotaging Wagner
Oh yah, I'm a troll... thats it. And you are what ? The Gate Keeper ?
What I'm interested in, is discovering the truth about the quality of the Regular Russian Army and the SMO. None of us has any real conclusive information that is not filtered by the agendas of group/people/interests who are closer to the action.
Russia is just 20 years removed from a very destructive decade that could have accomplished the neocon dream of "decolonizing" Russia. There is still significant damage in Russian institutions, economy and culture, both from 70 years of communism and the attempt to dismantal Russia by "helping" it 1991-2000.
Russia appears to be winning this war. But it's not proven to me yet.
How the war is won is part of success or failure.
Not being able or perhaps just not willing to close the deal in Bakhmut may be unimportant or may be an opportunity for Ukraine. Ukraine has shown itself to be cunning, willing to take risks and indifferent to losses. Russia should not be complacent.
I am happy to believe the Russian Regular Army is all seeing and has everything under control. That is, after all, what they tell the outside world.
Putin has tried push reform on the Russian Army in the past with only partial success. I believe there is a good chance that one of the purposes of Wagner is to put pressure on the Army to continue reforming and to shake it out of a garrison mentality. The kind of war the Soviets fought is no longer an option for the Russians. Their demographics are some of the worst on the planet. Wagner is perhaps something of a model. Clever use of human factors to achieve both combat power and economy of force.
Nobody knows what Prigozhin's role is. He's not a commander. hes is not the owner of Wagner. He may just be an effective PR guy. He makes me laugh (in a good way). I listen to what he says the same way I listen to any corporate hack and assume he is always talking his book.
When he says he's worried about his flanks or that his people are excluded from the chain of command, it may be BS, it may be clever misdirections or it may be real. If it's real and hes talking his book, it's something to be aware of.
Personally, I'm inclined to believe it's misdirection and that the Russians would like nothing better than for Ukraine to launch a significant breakin attack. But neither you or I know anything real and concrete about whats happening on the battlefield.
If such an attack occurs and catches the Russian off balance, it tells us something. If such an attack occurs and is squashed, that also tells us something. I'm hoping for the latter, but don't yet discount the possibility of the former.
So, yeah, just reiterate the same concern troll bullshit you started with. Fuck off. No one cares.
Oh, I'm so impressed by internet warriors and their clever use of language. Try presenting a sentence with some useful content. You may have something useful to say and I'd like to hear it.
The russians bomb daily Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantivoka region where AFU manpower and equipment are stored.
The real joke is the notion that the Russians aren't aware of every single thing Ukraine does. No one wants to give Russia credit for having satellites over the battlefield, the equivalent of AWACs intelligence aircraft, drones, Special Forces forward observers and infiltration units, and the whole nine yards of battlefield C4ISR just like the US does. And probably spies right in the offices of the Ukrainian command structure built up over years since 2014 or before.
I'm not aware on anything the Ukrainians have done on the battlefield that the Russians weren't fully aware of before it even happened. The Kherson and Kharkiv offensives were ineffective precisely because of this. Once in a while, of course, stuff happens and a Russian tactical unit might be caught unawares somewhere, but overall the Russians are way ahead on battlefield intelligence, even given the US ISR assets freely supplied to Ukraine. And as the drone incident proves, any time Russia wants to eliminate the US assets it can do so.
And I am sure that there are tens of thousands Ukranians that want the NAZIs out, and report their movements.
Well remember the Sitrep is my statements, not the Russian MoD--don't confuse the two. I have no idea what Russian MoD actually knows. When I say that I'm uncertain as to Ukraine's movements around Bakhmut that doesn't mean Russian MoD is uncertain. They could be, or they could very well know all about it. I may have implied they were uncertain (accidentally or not), but they may very well have it fully covered. I was simply giving options/possibilities, etc.
Also, many of the sources I quote which are wondering about an offensive, are not higher up Russian sources but DPR etc--for instance Khodakovsky. So they are not 'in the know' about the higher operational strategic imperatives because that's not even their zone of control or frontline theater. The people actually in the know, real Russian MoD generals are not going to be on Telegram telling you their plans and what they know--so I think that's where some of your confusion is coming from.
With that said, the Russian situation does have some tenuousness to the extent that no one has ever claimed Russian ISR capabilities are superior to the COMBINED power of the West/NATO/Five-Eyes/US, etc. In my articles on the topic, I've made it clear that Russia can't compete with hundreds/thousands of Western intelligence satellites all combined and being used in unison in Ukraine. So if Russia has to hide from HIMARS, and Ukraine doesn't have to hide as much from Russian reprisals, that's not entirely a controversial thought. Depending which types of intelligence satellites we're counting, it's basically dozens vs. hundreds for Russia/NATO assets.
However, Ukraine has never shown an ability yet to concentrate truly heavy armor in a clandestine way. Only fast moving, easy to hide MRAP and ICV / IMV style vehicles (Humvees, Wolfhounds, Kirpis, etc. etc.)
Secondly, much of the footage of 'large concentrations' that AFU has ever posted in the past, has always been fake propaganda footage not actually anywhere close to the frontline. This is often exposed by the fact that for instance, none of the troops wear colored arm bands in the videos, and things of this nature, which gives it away as training from the 'rear areas' (beyond Odessa or west Ukraine, or not even in Ukraine, etc). So be wary of that as well.
As for the Wagner stuff, sure I get you're repeating soundbytes and talking points from the latest Prigozhin propaganda video--and who knows it may even be true, to an extent. But at the end of the day, Prigozhin doesn't actually know what's happening in the MoD. He's not even the commander of his own forces, and admits that he's been 'locked out' of communications, so how can he even know anything about MoD's strategies, needs, etc.
As for your last point, sure that's their goal and any even slight pushback of territory will be viewed as a big moral boost. Unfortunately, since Wagner has explicitly conquered a large 'crumple zone' exactly for that purpose, we'll likely see some propaganda victories because typically those types of areas are designed to be abandoned/retreated from by fire, so there's good chance AFU can regain some of the 'padding' in the NW that Wagner recently got. But will they actually break into Bakhmut or even liberate Soledar as they are now claiming to be able to do--that's very unlikely.
"--so I think that's where some of your confusion is coming from"
I don't have any confusion. I know the difference between your opinion, my opinion, and the Russian MoD's opinion. However, in the absence of a stated Russian MoD opinion, I rely on my opinion - which is what I would do if I were the Russians. So far that usually ends up being correct. :-)
As for ISR, the US has superior ISR over the whole world. Russia has equal if not superior ISR over Ukraine. In other words, Russian ISR is more than adequate to keep Russia informed of Ukraine moves. Hiding from HIMARS doesn't mean Russia can't find HIMARS. People need to remember that there aren't that many HIMARS in Ukraine and Russia has better things to do than find every one of them before they're a problem. Just because Russian ISR is comprehensive doesn't mean they can see every square inch in high resolution of Ukraine. Hiding stuff is still possible. Hiding an entire offensive is not.
No, I'm not repeating "soundbites from Prigozhin". I don't listen to Prigozhin because he's in the same boat as the DPR guys - out of the loop of Russian operational plans. Not to mention that he trolls a lot. Don't know where you got the idea I was.
Huh? No, I'm replying to Danf not you, Lol. Sorry for the confusion, pretty sure I hit 'reply' to DanF, but I'm still getting used to this reply system on Substack, it can be confusing with the various 'lines' leading to each comment. I actually prefer the more 'straight forward' comment systems on MoA/Saker's site.
Yes, the Substack/Slashdot threaded style reply system does pose the problem of "mistaken ID reply", but it is OVERWHELMINGLY easier to follow a thread of conversation, than the "Stream of Consciousness" that time of posting types of systems (MoA/ArsTechnica) force you to endure.
Just accept that mistakes will be made, and keep up your level of excellence!
The Orekhov offensive seems like it was a test offensive of sorts, using NATOs combined arms blitzkrieg tactics they seem to think are the key for wining any conflict. The smoke part was confusing; isn't that usually used when your position is revealed and for you to move out of the way to safety? But even then its for line of sight only right? What affect is that supposed to achieve against artillery and air strike on your smoke group?
Here's video of Russian 155th Marines using the same smoke tactic https://www.bitchute.com/video/bQSsMHobSIba/ you pump smoke from your engine to advance under cover so enemy can't see what to hit.
You're right doesn't have as big of an effect on artillery although it can still mess with attempts to fire-correct the arty by way of drone, depending how wide the smoke spreads.
A few thoughts:
"The powers that be are watching Ukraine’s collapse and know the last big ‘hurrah’ hail mary throw of the vaunted ‘Spring Offensive’ will be the true beginning of the end, at which point Zelensky will be under great pressure from various sides to begin formal overtures of peace/compromise toward Putin/Russia."
Or, they really believe the offensive will be succesful, and in their pursuit of the "regime change" strategy, they do not want to give Putin an out of the resulting precarious situation (in the form of possible peace talks that they hope he will be begging for).
"Initially, US/NATO appeared deterred by the events and cancelled planned future flights. However, they did end up sending up a new RQ-4 Global Hawk, but this time it flew with transponders on and much farther away from Russian territory."
Does the RQ-4 Global Hawk not always fly with transponders on? I see it every day on Flightradar.
Another look here:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/operational-update-68c
Xi and Putin will be watching together the collapse of the banking system with a champagne cup, after Credit Suisse tonight, two more major banks in Europe would be the next to fall.
Bloomberg
TWO MAJOR BANKS IN EUROPE EXAMINE SCENARIOS OF CONTAGION, LOOK TO ECB, FED TO STEP IN WITH STATEMENTS OF SUPPORT -SOURCES
Breaking: TASS Putin '' we did not use hypersonic missiles in Ukraine'
1. For your first idea, it's possible, but less likely than the other explanation. Reason is, if they really thought they were going to win that confidently, the arrest warrant wouldn't have come out of the blue now, at such a desperate time. Their victory would be self-evident as they already explained to us for a long time that if Putin loses this war, he will collapse and be overthrown anyway, an arrest warrant would not matter for that whatsoever. They have told us since last year that a loss would mean instant fall from power. So that's why to me the arrest warrant much more likely points to their getting nervous over *Ukraine's* forthcoming attempts at compromise rather than Russia's.
2.The RQ4 does usually fly with them on, that's the whole point. The reason the MQ9 Reaper was shot down was because it flew with transponders off and approached Crimea. So I was simply making the point that, US clearly backed down on their attempt to fly with transponders off, and have now returned to flying with them *ON* again.
2. If the RQ4 usually flies with them on (while the other smaller ones such as the MQ9 do not), and this one time the RQ4 again flew with them on, how does it follow that "the US clearly backed down on their attempt to fly with transponders off"? It simply does not. For all we know there were dozens of MQ9s flying in the vicinity of Crimea on that day with their transponders off.
As I understand the US substituted the MQ9 for RQ4 that day, there were no other RQ4's flying. The US typically only has one asset of that type in the Black Sea on any given day. So my point was that, rather than thinking about it in terms of RQ4 or MQ9 which is irrelevant since they have nearly identical capabilities, it's more conducive to think of it as a daily mission. And so the point is, the US flew daily missions of these signal gathering craft with transponders on previously. On this particular day they flew a daily mission with the transponder off and got shot down. The very next day, they once again returned to flying daily missions with transponders on. It's simple to understand. Their transponder off experiment failed and they limped back to flying with transponders on with tail between their legs.
"The US typically only has one asset of that type in the Black Sea on any given day"
We cannot possibly know this for a fact. All we can know is they have one daily asset there with its transponder on, and it is the RQ4. Also, there was literally an RQ4 flying in the early hours of the same morning of the MQ9 incident. And I've never seen an MQ9 on Flightradar. Again, for all we know they are flying MQ9s daily and continue to do so even after the incident, albeit further out.
Well that is possible but it's extremely 'convenient' for that argument that during the MQ9 incident there was magically no RQ4 present anymore, which much more strongly supports my point that they fly a daily mission with only one asset at a time *particularly* because it serves no strategic purpose to fly more than one given that one will gather enough of the data you need, so that's a really 'reaching' argument IMO. It's fairly safe to assume they fly one mission--on that day they switched to a transponders off mission and they did it on purpose with an MQ9 because they knew it would get shot down, or at least have a very high chance of it, so they switched to a much cheaper model so as not to lose the RQ4 $$$.
Well, as to the alleged Ukrainian 20 brigades and their upcoming attempt to "deblock" Bakhmut, all I can say is: "Good luck with that, Ukraine..."
Which is to say: "That ain't gonna happen".
OTOH, if Ukraine does manage to throw back Wagner from their "crumple zones", you can expect the gloom-and-doom concern trolls to be out in force claiming that Russia has lost the war and must now sue for peace on the "Korean DMZ" concept.
"That ain't gonna happen", either.
Neither is Xi going to convince Putin to negotiate with Ukraine - if he even intends to. Russia's security needs require taking control of all of Ukraine, deposing the neo-Nazi/NATO regime, and putting a Military District in Western Ukraine, right on the Polish border, with a couple hundred thousand Russian troops, a thousand Russian tanks, and airfields with Russian MiG-31Ks armed with Kinzhals and a Russian navy base in Odessa.
Then Putin can talk to the West and say, "OK, you got your Aegis Ashore in Poland and Romania - we just countered that. And I hope you don't like it. Now what are you going to do about it?"
Chinese ''peace plan' is on some point a total non starter as they divide Kiev in two like Berlin (in 4).
The only good point is: "all sanctions must be removed", will never ever happen, Medvedev talked about at least 50 years (they will stay).Maybe US EU will cancel some because they really need this or that item which is vital for them.
Another Chinese plan which is a total non starter ' respecting the territorial integrity of 404', point which is contradictory to their Kiev dmz.
I agree. First of all, there is no proof Xi is presenting a peace plan to Putin. Second. if he does, Putin will likely explain the situation vis-a-vis NATO neocons being in control of Ukraine and therefore peace is not an option. Third, even if Russia pays lip service to any peace plan, there will be no movement on it until the war is effectively over. Fourth, I think Xi understands this now and therefore he's just going to present this peace plan for PR value, knowing it's not going to work because both sides don't want it. Finally, if Russia does agree to any such "DMZ" plan, Russia will have lost the war. So I don't see them doing so regardless of what the Chinese want and how much Russia wants to placate China. As Martyanov says, China is second fiddle to Russia in military terms and Russia will not sacrifice its security needs to satisfy China's geopolitical goals.
Agree it is a 'good cop, bad cop' scenario..message being: ''look Global South, and even some Western countries, we are peacemakers and only neocons-nato-eu are warmongers even up to the destruction of their economy and financial sector''.
Yesterday former EU head Juncker(Luxembourg, very small country indeed but a big laundering fiscal paradise for the US): he said, we must start to negociate with Russia.
Don't forget that these western oligarchs and politicos only care for: their money, their banks, their greed, their confort, their privileges. If they( at one moment) have to chose between 404 and these items, let me tell you they will not hesitate one second.
Only the 4 neocons in D C, Stoltenberg and idiots like Duda + Baltic countries will suddenly be left alone.
Yep that's what I'm worried about, as I wrote above in answer to somebody--those crumple zones were taken specifically for the purpose of allowing fall-back which will likely happen to bear the brunt of an initial assault. So there's good chance we'll see withdrawals from those 'padded' zones and of course all the concern trolls and doomers will have a field day with that, despite the fact that each advance through the padding designed explicitly for that, will cost AFU massive amounts of lives/materiel.
Re Xi's visit to Moscow. I recall that Putin had made a short notice trip to meet Xi in Beijing a few days / weeks before the SMO started. Probably to inform Xi of Russia's plans and confirm support from Xi. Given how the US has been ratcheting up anti-China war talk, it is similarly probable that Xi is doing the reverse of what Putin did. China may be planning some move on Taiwan and Xi is informing Putin of that first and ensuring the two are in sync against the empire of chaos. It's surprising nobody has thought of this angle.
2) Regarding Russian oligarchs here is an excellent and very recent piece on one in particular by John Helmer.
https://johnhelmer.net/is-the-bar-coming-down-on-the-dirtiest-of-the-russian-oligarchs/
President Putin has, I believe, stated in recent times that privately owned element of the military industrial complex which are underperforming are liable to have their ownership status reviewed.
Putin's initial years in power were associated with the political neutering of the oligarchs of neoliberal financial capitalism (the "Semibankirschina") and it is interesting to note the President Xi's crackdown on corruption has also strongly targeted oligarchs whose activities might negatively effect financial stability.
5) It is interesting to note with regard to NATO's Yugoslavia bombing campaign that I think Colonel Doug MacGregor has said that they they started with list of static military infrastructure that were destroyed relatively quickly and as a result they moved on to targets of much lower significance (i.e. probably not that militarily relevant). I think I also read somewhere that it was also a fairly ineffective campaign when it came to the actual destruction of military hardware (rather than buildings).
They are trying to push Deripaska against VVP, as they just decided to put major (220%?)tariffs on aluminium. Even canadian former Alcan was against but W SS Freeland is in ctrl of (occupied by 404) kanada.
Good luck with that
https://youtu.be/48Kk7kobMQY
That video, though old, is an absolute gem.
Ah, yes❤️🇷🇺💙
Yep, imagine a US/UK/Euro president/PM talking that way to a rat oligarch such as Larry Fink. We can only imagine 'cos it'll never happen.
As far as geo-locating the Reaper crash sight, another cross-check occurred to me this morning. Google earth will show that the shelf on which Crimea is perched begins dropping precipitously only 20 kilometers or so from the southern shores. For the wreckage to be at 900m, it can't be much further offshore than that, or it would be twice as deep. So assuming the drone spent at least some of its time trying to escape, it must have been very close to land indeed when the intercept started.
With respect to history Dominic Lieven’s Russia Against Napoleon seems a fair take by a British / western author (albeit his ancestry seems to be Baltic German). It covers only the Napoleonic War but shows that the Russian Army defeated Napoleon and then reached Paris. The victory was not only caused by winter. It even details aspects such as Tsar Alexander visiting French wounded in hospital, as well as how Russian society mobilised and was organised to fight the war. Quite different to usual British histories of the period that focus on the Iberian Peninsula War, Wellington, Nelson and Waterloo.
Obviously, all of the works on WW2 by Antony Beevor are full of anti Soviet / anti Russian propaganda and very much need to be avoided. If you believe him, every Soviet soldier was seemingly committing rape and other outrages almost constantly. Which many British people seem to lap up as gospel truth.
History of Russia, have a look at this website https://histography.ru/en/#8620101 for chronology and overview, most topics before 1905 can then be checked for more details even with wikipedia or history channels in YT.
This doesn t make any sense. Where do AFU stores it s 20 brigades în Yar, Slaviansk-Kramatorsk region? We are talking about 50k+ men and equipement în a very small area. That not double when the russian just can bomb you with kalibrs into Kingdom come. Plus we allways talk about tens of thousands of soldiers but when we look at the videos we don t see that many soldiers. It was said that AFU had 80k soldiers aroumd Bahmut but they were beaten by Wagner with ,what, 30k soldiers? WTF? În WW2 you could see a sea of soldiers but here? Something doesn t add up. Why do the russians have to take soldiers from the south front to help Wagner, were are the 500k soldiers? How does Ukraine still have men? 50k here, 11k there, 15k over there. Where the fuck are they getting them? And finally, why are they still fighting, wtf is wrong with those stupid ukranians, don t they have internet, don t they know that they are uncle s Sam bitch, that their wifes have gone în the West and are sucking foreign cock, that their country is beyond fucked? Are they that dumb and brainwashed? Can t understand these bandera fucks. Strange war indeed.
404 already mobilized 10 times (maybe 11, I'm not sure).Which means 10 x let's say 80/100k= 800k at least as total + their departing regular army on 02/24/22(250k), + maybe 50-75k Nato + independent mercenaries or real fake pure nato cia+ sas+ dgse, poles etc ukie military police, national guard, civil protection units etc...it is far more than Russia.I don't even count the nazis like azov, kraken pravy sektor and co, majority are now kia-wia or they left for Europe as fake refugees future gladio usefull idiots agents for nato ops in the EU when the very same EU will collapse due banking crisis or whatever false flag they will launch( see Bologna Station attack, Madrid Station, Belgium 'tueurs du brabant', Aldo Moro and many more like Charlie, Bataclan ?).
Of course they are not all equal in quality(from the kidnapped mobilized in the streets of Odessa , to the 16 years old or the 60 years old sent to the various meatgrinder).But they still have some 'elites' left and some better trained in nato countries as well, but not all by far are elites.How many, I have no idea but MOD for sure knows how many and where they hide.
Well firstly note that I made a typo and corrected it to 10+ brigades (still a lot).
As for taking soldiers from the south, I didn't say they did or WOULD have to do so, I was simply implying that *could* be the case. For all we know, Russian MOD may use fresh mobiks instead from the batch who have been sitting out. But I was simply going off the principle that they are sitting out for a reason, and the Russian MoD does not wish to commit them yet (for a variety of reasons). Secondly, it's likely not "500k soldiers", that was some claims from Macgregor and others. Ukraine says that Russia has 125-150k still sitting outside. My estimate was it could be 200-250k at the most, but at this point could be less as well. We don't know with 100% certainty.
The 500k thing came from the rumors of 'stealth mobilization' happening but personally I never believed those rumors, I simply reported them for the sake of breadth but to me there was no real evidence that mass stealth mobilization occurred, but rather the regular announced mobilization of 300k, many of which have already been committed to the front.
As for Ukraine, well they definitely have at least another 100-150k in the reserves in various places such as: 1. in the west of the country 2. in other european countries currently training 3. on the long northern border, as territorial guards (guarding Belarus and Russian border), etc.
People also talked a few months ago about 80k 'volontaries' + the 300 mobiks.
So much doesnt make any sense. And considering how much ISR both sides have you'd think spotting tens of thousands of men and machines over the course of days and weeks would be straightforward. But I guess not. I frequently wonder how day to day life is on the front. Where do the men sleep? Eat? Shit? There must be movement constantly to FOB which cant possibly be more than 50km from the front. One day we hear about the marvels of Delta and Nettle and ISR and the next a conglomeration the size of a village is invisible. This goes for both sides by the way
Here are some items that are interesting and informative about Russian history and culture. Many of these are long but well worth the time.
Robert K Massie:
1. Peter the Great: His life & world
2. Catherine the Great: Portrait of a woman
3. Nicholas and Alexandra: The Classic Account of the Fall of the Romanov Dynasty
Yulian Semyonov:
Seventeen Moments of Spring
(novel available in English at Amazon. Also see 12 episode soviet tv series with subtitles on YouTube.)
YouTube series “The Forgotten War”
Dostoyevsky:
1. Crime and Punishment,
2. Brothers Karamazov
Tolstoy:
War and Peace
Pasternak:
Doctor Zhivago (very different from the movie!)
Alexander Griboyedov:
Woe from Wit: A Verse Comedy in Four Acts (Russian Library),
translated by Betsy Hulick
Novels by Boris Akunin are fun and provide historical context at various key points. Most are available in English.
This is a hell of an incredible SITREP, awesome reading, thanks a bunch.
Thanks very much my friend, a big honor!
“A Concise History of Russia” Paul Bushkovitch is pretty good. Certainly a good overview starting point
What a great read. I was wondering what's an "SD" in the phase below?
"VFU used smoke before the attack, and three charges of SD to make passages in minefields."
Thank you.
Unfortunately, the SD is from an autotranslate, so acronyms like that won't be picked up and it's difficult to know what "SD" stood for in Russian. However, contextually I suspect it likely is referring to UR-77 Meteorit or something similar (perhaps 'SD' standing for something like line charges or something associated with the UR-77 or a similar system). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UR-77_Meteorit
The reason is they used the word 'charges' and this is the only thing I can think of that literally fires what's called a 'line charge' to clear mines. And 3 charges would make sense as each 'charge' of the UR-77 clears a straight line of hundreds of meters so three of them in a row could clear a path to the next waypoint/cover. https://youtu.be/E_89Y-I8fPs?t=21
Would not "SD" be Smoke Dispenser??.
All armoured vehicles have had them for over 50 years now.