First thing’s first, some important updates on the ‘drone incident’. The US has now released their version of the footage, which can be seen here: VIDEO 1. They appear to still be tenuously clinging to the claim that the plane ‘struck the drone’s propeller’, yet that is not evident in the video at all. Much more likely the plane merely bucked the drone from sheer turbulence and jet-wash, causing it to flip over—but I’m not discounting that the prop was clipped. It
Advancing successfully on every single frontline is dithering? As for 'major war', the Rasputitsa (mud season) came extremely early (normally mid to late march, this time in mid february). Why would Russia launch an offensive in heavy mud season. For now it's doing local offensives and very successfully so, Avdeevka, Bakhmut and entire Kremennaya lines are collapsing for AFU
IMHO, Russia should have launched its major offensive long before that. As it is, Ukraine has a history of throwing the untrained and ill-equipped at the lines without concern for losses, while reserving the trained and equipped for major attacks.
We saw it at Kherson, while Ukraine moved up forces to assault Liman. Even internet commentators saw it coming. Russia didn't bring in reinforcements at Krasny Liman, and Ukraine ended up capturing both, much as it pains me.
Ukraine is marshalling weapons and troops to do this again, and then secure another round of weapons and training while people make excuses, dismiss this as a "propaganda victory" (but one that gets the desired results from the West), etc..
I can wish that things were otherwise, but they aren't.
It's the Ukrainians using soldiers to catch artillery fire. Primarily anyway and by a large margin. Russia is apparently content to grind the Ukrainians down slowly without taking too many risks. Their approach has gradually changed as the war has progressed.
It is funny to read this against the background of dozens of videos from Ugledar and, before that, Bakhmut, where Russian soldiers stormed positions on foot in the fields. Losing dozens of people at a time.
And dozens of armored vehicles destroyed daily in the fields of Ugledar
Was it Kherson that Russia successfully evacuated/retreated from because of the possibility that AFU could blow up a dam and flood it or something? Or am I mixing up cities/towns?
Not exactly. Ukraine threw forces at Kherson over the summer, suffering great losses, but drawing reinforcements away from Krasny Liman, which was lost as a result.
Later, Russia abandoned Kherson as well, to much western cheers and new weapons and cash.
Yes, Kherson was abandoned due to the inability to keep it secure because of the threat of destruction of the dam which would have completely cut off all Russian forces on the west bank of the river.
So it was a smart move both tactically and strategically even though they may have sacrificed too much to take it in the first place. Oh well, war is war and shit happens, right?
One thing that Ukraine can't replace are combat capable people. It's already thrown the incapable people into the battle, only to meet their deaths, while its cadre of capable fighters is shrinking. More weapons won't help if the remaining troops aren't capable of operating them effectively. Ukraine has just about drained the pool.
Strelkov 6th column hurrah patriot Nato usufull idiot troll (like saker used to say, critics but providing zero solution), with zero eco/geopol global game view. Why do you think Assad came in Moscow? And XI next tuesday? Followed soon by both Iranians and MBS?
A hurrah patriot is the opposite of what I am. And nobody asked me for a solution, but I can give one anyway- the Russian leadership needs to devote the resources to fight and win. Not this halfassing.
Assad came to Moscow because he has no other patron, BTW. The man knows western promises and good faith are worthless, especially after Iraq and Libya.
Kherson has zero relevance to current situation. Kherson withdrawal was not combat related in any way shape or form. It was geographical/supply/logistics related. To state otherwise is to openly lie and deceive.
You would make a much better argument for that case if you used Kharkov as an example not Kherson. Russia held Kherson easily and was even advancing in places before the pull out because AFU had begun preparations (already struck it several times with HIMARS) to blow Khakovka dam.
Kharkov is the only semi-mistake but not really as much of one as you think. It's not like they didn't know forces were there, but owing to how few forces Russia has actually committed to Ukraine (much lower than you think, less than 100k for most of the year), they simply didn't have the reinfrocements to do anything about it. So it was a bit of a shell game and Sun Tzu attempt at 'pretending strength' when in reality they had nothing to cover that entire giant region and were outnumbered 5:1 or 8:1 depending who you ask.
Now there's rough numerical parity so such events are impossible to reproduce for the AFU.
I mentioned Kherson to show an example of the Ukrainian strategy of sacrificing untrained troops in vast numbers without concern for losses, in order to save the better trained for when really needed.
Cynical, but it worked. At least Russia finally started increasing troop numbers after Liman. A few more,available reinforcements and Russia would still hold Krasny Liman.
I've heard reports that that is true but that Ze has re-committed many of them to Bakhmut instead, significantly impacting his ability for a successful "Spring Offensive".
Using up cannon fodder in Bakhmut is a cost-opportunity, too. The cannon fodder could also be used as the first wave of attack in the southern attack, instead they will have less low-trained cannon fodder for any attack in the Zaporizhe-line and instead use more trained reserves in the first wave of attack.
no one knows for certain how many. Yes there's some reports they have upwards of 120,000 reserves getting ready for the next offensives, which is a lot. If it's true then that can certainly make a dent. Although they don't quite have the armored vehicles and equipment/ammo in general to arm that entire number
I doubt that if in the 120k(if real?), the forced mobilized ukie crowd in the streets or supermarkets/offices/homes of Odessa, Kharkov etc will fight like bandera fanatics who are mainly gone now.Even those 'trained' in the West, not so sure.
Armchair generals and Monday Morning quarterbacks.
Russia has clear and good reasons for doing what it did. That it did not work out according to desires or plans - that's reality.
And here's reality: the Russian people's support for this conflict is growing - not fading.
The rest of the world's support for the West and NATO and Ukraine is falling, not growing.
Russia's capability to accelerate or maintain this conflict is growing, not falling.
The West's military logistics, military industrial capacity, vaunted Wunderwaffen and their own political stability and economic resilience are all failing including France getting ejected out of its NW Africa colonial zone.
This looks like an overwhelming strategic victory for Russia, China and the rest of the world to me.
Decide for yourself based on the points I made as well as your own understanding.
Perhaps you spend too much time reading Strelkov and his like. While that man did valiantly defend the LDPR in the early days - he is equally not credible in terms of anymore more strategic than a fight in front of him. He has no recognition that Russia was simply not ready to confront the West in 2014 - no hypersonic missiles deployed, no 8 years of import substitutions, no buildup of cooperation with China, no recognition in Saudi Arabia of mutual interests against the West, no re-creation of the 1st Tank Guard and 20th Combined Arms armies, etc etc.
Nor is this type of error restricted to Strelkov. Ritter and MacGregor have also pronounced fully military views on how Russia should conduct the SMO but the battlespace clearly extends beyond Ukraine's borders and above the purely military plane.
Relations with Turkey, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the rest of the world are extremely important; recognition of fundamental Western limitations in ammunition, the vulnerabilities of the Ukrainian electrical grid and the lack of consensus in the West's populations (note I differentiate between political leadership and popular views), the commodity upcycle/supercycle going on combined with the West's continued overfocus on alternative energy and more.
I have never read anything by Strelkov. I couldn't even tell you off the top of my head where to read anything by Strelkov.
What I have read are analyses, some more informed than others, some by better credentialed, others less credentialed, all of which have proven wildly inaccurate in practice. Looking back, they seem to have consisted of wishful thinking and fanboi cheerleading, combined with post hoc rationalizations when the enemy proved to be less stupid, less cowardly, less impotent and more proactive than the analysts assumed or than I might have liked.
I'd love to be wrong. BUT I am always careful reading anything that tells me what I want to hear, because I am aware of confirmation bias.
For that matter, I haven't said anything about what Russia should or should not have done in 2014.
The only way I see your last sentence not coming true is if the Insane Empire stages a false flag nuke or something massive and then proceeds to turn this into WWIV.
Here's the thing: if the US and Europe cannot supply the Ukrainians with enough artillery ammo - the same applies to NATO. Only it would be worse because NATO stocks are already depleted vs. the Ukraine's ammunition stocks at the beginning of the SMO.
It isn't just artillery: Russia has fired more cruise missiles alone in the 1 year of SMO than the entire Tomahawk program has manufactured in its 30 years of existence.
So the notion that the West could accomplish anything in conventional warfare is ludicrous to the extreme.
A false flag nuclear attack is irrelevant because of this - the only thing the West could do to "win" is a first strike nuclear attack.
And the scary part is that possibility is not off the table despite the obvious capability of Russia and China to respond.
Yikes. If true that's simply amazing about the amounts of cruise missiles. Are you sure that Russia has fired more than the US/NATO have ever even made?
From the archive here: "SITREP: Update 2/18 - Major War Confirmed Imminent" rather strongly suggested a potential for major actions "coming within a week". Looking a little further back: "The Coming Russian Offensive 2023" on Feb 1 concluded "the new phase 2.0 offensive will finally be on the menu relatively soon."
So none of this happened because mud season came early? Perhaps so, but they could've started in January, as many were predicting at the time.
Why is Prigozhin complaining that the MoD is cutting his ammo supplies again, saying that "Soledar was enough"? He seems to think he's going to capture Bakhmut anyhow, but no thanks to the Kremlin. (H/T Rolo Slavskiy).
I must say I'm glad if Russia is not so eager to escalate this war by advancing on Odessa, Kharkov and/or Kiev. Just because they are prepared for such an exploit, doesn't mean it would be wise to go ahead with it. Why make the Neocon idiots any more crazed than they are already?
Mar 16, 2023·edited Mar 16, 2023Liked by Simplicius
There will be NO big arrow offensive before the Donbass def line fully collapse and the eventual ukro counter offensive failled..why? Because after there will be almost nothing left on ukie side, no def lines dozens of thousands will be KIA MIA POW WIA.It then will be wide open for RF.Missiles strikes will continue to destroy defense systems(nato already gave them a lot, lot of S 300 are destroyed, patriot will defend the regime assets,if any, if ever?).
Then F 16 in, ok nato fine, like the 402 fighters already downed + 222 helicos, 20/30/50 F 16 will follow the same path.
NATO will only have two choices then: negociate aka capitulate or double down entering 404 and all the bets are then for a Syrian ''solution''.And a DMZ.
White House Jean pierre just announced they have money for 404 till sept.
With the banks collapsing, unpopular bailout, even more inflation as they already restarted a de facto secret QE, official QE will follow soon and they will have to stop to increase interest rates otherwise all banks kapout and 404 will not be essential suddenly.
FED + Biden neocons have two catastrophic options: rates up = banks collapse which means bailout up to trillions, recession etc..or QE, rates down free money for the 1% again and hyperinflation for the 99%.
Sometime wars stop, are lost or won for non military reasons.
But it is also very dangerous as they can choose major diversion aka nukes or some kind of crazy stuff.
They will opt to save the banks of course and the 1% who pays their elections (2024 potus campaign starts in sept).Hyperinflation will be for the deplorables, for us.
"Sometime wars stop, are lost or won for non military reasons."
I would suggest that it is those non-military reasons that are primarily responsible for much of Russia's actions (or "inactions", as the case may be) to date. War is, above all, political in nature as well as a huge information game played by all sides. Only the Russian General Staff have a deep view of all this and more - they are the only ones who actually know what is going on and why. The rest of us are mere armchair generals.
If you actually read the very post you quoted, you'd see that I concluded that the last wave of mobilized fighters would not even be ready until early february because they need 3 months+ of training and they were only mobilized in the last days of October, which would put them at the very earliest in late January to be finished. But then you might need extra lead time to get them situated into their units etc etc. So that does cut into the timeline.
Yes, I agree that you were saying that the offensive would come in February at the earliest, while others like MacGregor and The Duran were expecting it in December or January. Perhaps they were hoping for a more expeditious, urgently motivated mobilization of troops.
But: going forward, are you predicting that there will be a big offensive as soon as mud season is over? I am hoping that there won't be, or at least not unless NATO dramatically escalates first.
Yep I specifically wrote in that report that there's a *good chance* it won't come because of how CLOSE they were cutting it to mud season and the mobiks not being done yet. By the way interestingly enough, my mobik timeline was vindicated yesterday when I saw a new interview with an actual mobik himself and he said that he was 'trained for 3 months at such and such location' -- so it proved that they did in fact train for 3 months+ although obviously many of them trained much less and were put into combat very quickly to plug emergency holes, but those are outliers.
And no I'm not predicting there'll be a huge offensive just immediately after end of mud season because, as I stated in the reader's mailbag I believe that the Russian MOD's objectives and plans are quite 'fluid' and they're also waiting to see the AFU's actions and where they commit their forces. So for instance, Russia doesn't just have a 'preset' offensive already scheduled for exactly such and such direction. They are going to see first where the AFU is moving/committing its supposedly 'vast' amounts of new reserves. Now keep in mind that doesn't mean they will wait until those reserves are brought to bear on a new offensive, so I'm not saying Russia will necessarily let Ukraine launch their offensive first (though that's a possibility) but rather that even if Russia does choose to launch first, they will still launch it at vectors which are at least partially in response to where AFU's reserves are being moved, in order to hit them at the weakest point etc.
If you asked me the question a month or two ago, I would have felt much more (as I did then) that Russia needed urgency and would certainly strike first due to the danger of all the new western equipment that's supposed to come. And in fact I partially conveyed this in those february reports.
However, now I feel slightly differently due to the fact that most of the 'scary' numbers of Western armor aid have in fact proven to be bogus. Instead of the 250-400+ new tanks that a month or two ago we thought would be sent to Ukraine, now it's looking like all the European countries are dithering and only sending a tiny fraction. If that remains the case then I no longer feel that Russia needs urgency or has any time pressure at all.
This therefore makes me have a slightly different forecast which is that Russia could very well wait for Ukraine to attack first to really destroy them easily in the open field (as they did in Kherson etc) and then launch their own larger offensives afterwards.
This could change if news about European armor changes and somehow they recommit to sending vast numbers, but as it stands right now the numbers they're sending don't seem too worrying to me, and Russia now has the luxury to wait and let Ukraine launch their offensive first.
Also, the other big thing that has to be waited for is the fall of Bakhmut simply to gauge how AFU will react and how their 2ndary defense lines to the west will hold up. But of course that fall will come much sooner than the end of mud season anyway, or at least most likely.
Are there any circumstances where you think the Russians would never launch any new offensive at all, but simply continue to defend the existing battle lines and make small, incremental advances as they're doing now?
Crazed Neocons are a given. Lindsey Graham likes a good spanking, so I don't know why he is so anti-Russian after Putin pulls Lindsey's panties down and tans his butt. After Nord Stream Russia understood it is a bare-knuckle fight and they are happy to oblige.
Paul Craig Roberts has been criticizing Russia for going too slow. He thinks that is what is emboldening the US and a short blitzkrieg war would be better. My answer is, "You want a conventional, urban, trench, and proxy war don't you? You know what's next after that?" Satellites? Take out major NATO assets? There is a lot of space to escalate into. I would prefer not. Slow boil and let them come to us? Besides, the big victories are the reproachment of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and that implicates Syria, and then we have Turkey smiling all the way to the bank. China, the peace-make; the USA, war needy.
He's speaking from a very general standpoint of strategy in a vacuum and has no clue about the actual real on the ground considerations that Russia is dealing with as he has no insider info for their various supply/materiel/troop situations. There are a myriad of reasons for why Russia might be choosing to fight the way it's fighting based on the various limitations of supply/troop/logistic/etc it's experiencing which unfortunately do not correspond to his more 'generalized' prescriptions
Bakhmut has been encircled, cauldronized and collapsing for the past 5 weeks. I suppose it might fall FOR REAL at some point. Then it's on to Chasiv Yar 10 km west. Russia could get to Kramatorsk before 2025!
The eastern philosophy of patience is not in the DNA of the west, especially now with the decline in all sectors of USA society. As an American, I wish things were otherwise, but they are not. For the WP to publish such an article, things must be much worse. And if UKR is admitting 100k casualties, that too might be an underestimation. I don’t think RUS went into this SMO without great forethought. China -Russia relations haven’t been better. Covid, wherever it came exactly from, came from the East. China is threatening us with Taiwan. All this is chipping away at US/western hegemony. It is a war of attrition on many fronts - on the battlefield, economically, pandemically, through technology. SMO is a piece of this massive effort to bring the west to its knees. Idk about you, it seems to be pretty successful so far. We are learning some painful lessons.
Nobody is saying that casualties aren't real. I'm saying that neither Bankovskaya nor NATO care.
Anyway, the West was willing to let a relative backwater like Afghanistan simmer along for 20 years before finally admitting defeat, and it's not as if there was a unanimous consensus in favor of leaving even then.
So be honest. What do you think the Russians should be doing now (or should have done) in order to end this much quicker? I'd like as much detail as you are willing to provide. I don't necessarily think you're a concern troll on this topic, but you are echoing lots of NAFO type trolls at other sites, so I'd really like to see where you're coming from.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but I would have devoted a lot more troops, engaged in a relentless SEAD campaign, I would have kept up the pressure on Kiev and forced the regime there to capitulate. Smashed every bridge, radio station, TV tower, rail line, warehouse, etc. in Kiev occupied territory. Westbound transport is allowed to pass, but every eastbound truck, train, car, bicycle, etc. gets wrecked.
I certainly would not be releasing captured Ukrainian troops on a promise of good behavior, which Russia did in the opening days of the war. Nor would I be releasing the pressure in hopes of negotiations.
You've seen my comments elsewhere on other forums. You should know by now that I don't make rationalizations for my side, and I try to avoid wishful thinking.
For anyone who has had to work on frozen ground, waiting for sufficient frost to get into the ground to carry heavy weight and the rapidity for which that frost leaves, is paramount to strategy.
In this case, Old Man Winter gave Ukraine an out, which they did not accept.
Definitely, Feral Finster is full of it and knows nothing.
And losing the ability to fight war is something the Natoites are terrified of, especially when Americans are concerned that they can't recruit enough new recruits for a myriad of reasons (Most unfit, the rest uninterested)
NATO countries are openly calling for regime change and war crimes trials in Russia, along with the breakup of the Russian Federation. A year ago, that would have been crazy talk. It's certainly not how people who are terrified talk.
So far, NATO hasn't needed to take such a direct role. Admittedly, most people in most NATO states are less than jazzed at the prospect. But that's why I mentioned the Goering quote, to illustrate how easy it is to use patriotism to get people to do something not in their own self-interest.
An army isn't just weaponry. What are weapons useful for if trained personnel aren't available to operate the equipment. The Taliban didn't have equipment, but they won because they had personnel. Agreed!
All these weapons are called systems, which means they also need maintenance and special ammunition. Making their overall value transient.
Please don't be eager to be offended. I am only sharing my point of view. It does not necessarily negate your point of view it could as well enhance your knowledge.
I'm not the one making argument by insult, the way so many here do, and I'm not offended. I'd love to be wrong, but I've heard these same confident predictions of imminent victory in the past, along with excuses when things don't pan out as anticipated.
Last I checked, western countries are providing training on weapons systems as well as weapons. Stuff that was a red line in the past is duly ignored. Don't be surprised when western fighter jets and sheep dipped pilots are supplied as well.
FF you are ignorant because you refuse to consider the facts. Or you are a paid troll.
" lavish arms, money and training on Ukraine." Arms? Nowhere near enough and sub standard in most cases (Javelin); money? To the MIC; training? Fuck all if you listen to the recent captured POWs. They stated they were given basic firing practice and taught how to march.
But go on, stick to your basic, blinkered view. You are entertaining at least.
Money. U.S. arms, most old and nearly obsolete sold at full price (obscene). All new equipment stripped of modern updates, and in insufficient numbers. All talk.
Europe. Gathers up antiquated Soviet stuff. Full price. Russia laughs.
Considering the attrition of Ukie/NATO assets, both materiel and personnel, I reckon their would be many militaries in the world that wish they were capable of such "dithering".
When Bakhmut falls the Russians need to reinforce the breakthrough to drive the Ukrainians back more rapidly so that they don't have a chance to build new lines of defence before the Slavyansk/Kramatorsk line is reached. Also, a drive southwards puts the NY/Totestk agglomeration in danger. Together with the increasing encirclement of Avdiivka, the Ukrainians will have no choice but to give up on any Spring offensive.
One consistent and ongoing failure on the part of Russia has been in taking "operational pauses" after victories, pauses that give the enemy plenty of time to regroup.
Please consider all the reports indicating that for every 6 thousand artillery shells the UF fires per day, the RF shells 20 thousand per day. That is a 1 to 3.3 ratio. Not an insignificant amount wouldn't you say. It also correlates with casualties.
actually it's the opposite. Current capacity of the entire west is about ~100-150k shells a month give or take (Ukraine requires 300k) which is about 1.2 - 1.8m a year. The lowest current estimates of Russian capacity is 3m a year and 7m roughly at the higher estimates. So, wrong again. Russia's capacity, at least apropos various artillery systems, is far greater than the entire combined west at the moment.
I say at the moment because there is potential for them to all ramp up eventually and possibly match Russian output but that ramp up would take approx 3 years or more, and there are many challenges which could prevent such a ramp up from being successfully completed at all.
"Europe produced around 300,000 155mm shells in total in 2022. Ukraine currently uses around 90,000-100k per months, according to estimates. 250,000 shells per month from 🇪🇺 countries as reportedly requested by 🇺🇦 is in near to medium terms highly unrealistic to say the least."
The ramp up to even BEGIN reaching Ukrainian usages would take 3-4 years. NO ONE is ramping up anything even close to what Ukraine uses.
You're posting so much outright false and fraudulent information that you are now officially on my agent provocateur watch list. Consider this a warning and think very carefully before you continue posting incorrect information that's known to be false. This is not a free for all for agent provocateurs here.
Mar 16, 2023·edited Mar 16, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Two things.
1) "Some have pointed to this before and after shot, showing what appears to be like a deformed prop blade after the Russian fuel dump"
That's not a before and after shot. If you watch the released video, there are two damaged prop blades (weirdly enough, both are opposite each other) and two undamaged ones in the same shot. They are rotating quite slowly so there is no "camera effect" to contemplate here, either. One blade is only slightly damaged (bent), while the other one appears to be quite mauled by the impact (whether is was the fuel or the jet scraping it).
2) "They’ve never taken such a trajectory before, AND in darkmode with transponders turned OFF."
How does Rybar (or whoever drew that infographic) know the trajectory of the drone and the location of the incident, when the transponders were turned off?
But at least one of the prop blades is bent in the direction of rotation. How would that even be possible? Also I only see one blade clearly deformed.
Re: direction and the transponder - The only thing I recall reading (yesterday) was that the drone was approaching the Russian border (one assumes Crimea or something - and I do think they said border and not coast, but that could be a translation thing?) and had its transponder turned off. I suppose a Russian official must have said that.
The AFU ofensive în the South is a pipe dream. Can t be done. They have maybe 50k soldiers, the russians have at least 150k soldiers there. AFU needs a thousand tanks, hundreds of altelery pieces, planes, hundreds of IFVs and a shitload of ammo. Plus the russians have build 3 layers of fortifications there. No way they will attack, they just can t pull it off.
Thanks. There could be other 'behind the scenes' power plays as well, red lines crossed we aren't fully aware of etc. For instance there were rumors US gave GLSDB, and we know for almost definite they gave JDAM-ER and that could've been a possible conveyed red line to US which caused Russia to use the Kinzhal strike.
Oh and one more thing, about Bachmut. Maybe it's just me, but after all this time you sort of know when things are not going well for RU currently, just by observing the propaganda on each side. When RU (or Prigozhin's) propaganda suddenly keeps quiet about Bachmut, and the western propaganda is churning out all these articles how the situation there is dire for the AFU, you sort of know what's up... Thing is, if things were going well for RU in Bachmut, it would have been the other way around.
Simplicius ... Don’t worry about that guy. Judging by his language level and name is just another troll.
I have a question that has been gnawing at me. Why suddenly in the past 2-3 days there has been a slew of articles in MSM about how badly Ukraine is doing? We all hope that they are finally starting to say the truth but I don’t think it is that.
Feels too coordinated because NYT, WaPo, Politico, etc. don’t just start doing a 180 together unless it’s coming from above. Also they still do the same “.. but Russia is doing worse” trope so they’re not ready to give up.
Why then? What’s the goal? What do they want us and/or the Russians to believe?
Well I think to some extent at the moment they have no choice because Bakhmut is starting to hit the critical peak and the losses are getting really bad. But of course an obvious answer could also be that due to these losses, the Western MSM paymasters are desperate to rekindle interest in Western audiences for the AFU so they're perhaps trying to give a desperate feel to the situation to give a 'push' to Western gov'ts to speed up the critical aid they so badly need.
If you notice each article, when you really read between the lines, reads almost as a weapons ad where they present each segment very predictably, almost like setup and punchline. They first give this 'grim' and urgent background context and then they sprinkle in some quotes from the 'on the ground' AFU commanders/soldiers who basically beg for more weapons and breathlessly explain how badly they need new [tanks/air defense/fighter jets/artillery/ammo/etc].
The only other conceivable explanation I can think of is that there are those in the powers-that-be group that truly do think holding Bakhmut is a strategically poor choice and that Ukraine would stand a better chance to give it up and regroup and so maybe they're doing this so as to put pressure on Ukrainian leadership to give up its bloodthirsty obsession with Bakhmut and just retreat to save its men so they can salvage what they have.
1. I think if you have a motivated populace in the west for Ukraine and they think more aid will help then these stories will drum up support for more aid. In this instance Ukraine fatigue has set in and most people either don’t care or are against it. Telling them the situation for Ukraine is bad has the opposite effect
2. There are some people in the U.S. leadership who want to get out and pivot to China. That could be it but I’m not sure they’re as influential as Victoria - at least not yet. Also even they know the way they get out is as important as getting out.
After more thought I think it’s a hedge by lowering expectations. They are planning a big spring offensive - it’s coming I’m sure of it. And the goal of this offensive is to give Russia a bloody nose and show the world they’re still fighting. If it succeeds, they can say “look how amazing the Ukrainians are” .. and everyone loves a good comeback story. If it fails, they can say “look the situation was bad and we told you so we might as well get out now”. In the second case they’re hoping Russia will be tired of fighting or they can put diplomatic pressure on them to settle for less than a full resolution of the problem (denazification, demilitarization and getting Odessa, etc.).
Are you even capable of identifying propaganda from ONE side? Let's see what you think happens to meet that def'n from the US before we make a judgment.
Here's an idea for future accidents with pentagon drones, add a hook or net on the bottom of an old Su27, send them fishing each day. play the ''we're not touching you, we're not touching you game'', just like they do.
I actually saw someone at MofA suggest that is what happened in this case. Tail hook or exhaust nozzle strike to the blades of the prop, but I still don't understand how it could be bent in the same direction it's rotating.
Get some pilots that are experienced with mid-flight refuelling, send them out. Actual practicality aside (its probably way to dangerous anyway) I just find the idea of an old Su-27 dragging a helpless drone on a tether hilarious.
Another must-read from Simplicius! I don't know how he does it - he must be five guys with too much time on their hands. :-)
By the way, Simplicius - don't waste your time with "Feral Finster" - he's obviously a "concern troll." Those guys never stop: they make random assertions with zero evidence, and when debunked they ignore the debunking and come back the in the next thread with the same garbage. MoA is infested with these scum.
I personally think most of them are Ukrainian-American Democrats, or Ukrainian-Canadians. The US Democratic Party is infested with these types, people like Alexandra Chalupa, who was the main driver of the meme that the Russians hacked the DNC back in 2016. She was the first to claim being "hacked by Russians" and was instrumental in working with the Ukrainian Embassy and was likely in contact with Ukrainian hackers.
The proper rule in dealing with "concern trolls" is like any other troll: ignore them completely. Never engage them or you end up going into a rabbit hole and wasting your time arguing with a black hole.
Thanks, I noticed these types use alot of sophistry and logical fallacy tricks like strawman and red herring arguments where they 'answer a different question' than one you asked, just to give the impression that they refuted/defeated your argument. It is a really disingenuous way of trying to argue and I have my eye on all these funny types.
Rolo Slavskiy (Previously Vincent Law when he was tied with Richard Spencer's Alt Right and as Roy Batty when he was with Andrew Anglin's Daily Stormer) is another example of these useful idiot concern troll types
Talk of a spring offensive rages on. But which side will go, Russia or Ukraine? I can see neither side going for the 'big arrow' move, or one side, but not both. Suppose Ukraine does make a big push between Kherson/Zap and, after massive losses on the fortifications, gets 30-40 km in. Then what? The Russians would bring up reinforcements, close in from either side and annihilate them. Ukraine is just desperate and crazy enough to try this. And the Russians will let the Ukies make their move first. Why try a big push when the US satellites are giving coordinates for every exposed Russian grouping. Let the Ukies come to them. Meanwhile, the AFU's resources for their vaunted offensive are being tapped to put out fires all along the front line. I wonder if the brilliant minds in Ukraine have considered that if they go all in, and it fails, it's all over. Cue the fat lady.
I don't know much about military ground combat but I would think a spring offensive by the AFU would be the equivalent of the battle of the bulge and what was it the amerikan general said to the German general when asked if he surrendered...Nuts! I do know a bit about aircraft and the US drone is basically a sailplane with an engine and high aspect wings and spy Gear and or weapons. I won't bother to look up the spec's but it would be slow and stable and Russian fighter fast and dynamically unstable and easily able to upset the drone with wake turbulence. The fuel dump if it happened would be like a dog marking its territory with urine. You really can't believe videos any more. Now I have been past the the US naval base at Norfolk in my sailboat on the way south and I doubt the US would tolerate a Russian or Chinese spy drone just outside the ADIZ but of course, they aren't exceptional. Now I know about the Spitfires gently nudging V1s to crash as they were much slower and both moving in formation. Obviously that's not an equivalent for a high speed jet and a glorified sailplane and no Russian pilot in their right mind would contact a solid object in flight without a war being on. Hopefully the Russians get some info from the drone and more than anything I hope this war ends soon and Poland doesn't get us into WWII. For all practical purposes the Ukraine is already destroyed with half the population gone and they won't be coming back.
The US tolerated North Vietnamese and Chinese planes based in China taking off and shooting down US bombers over North Vietnam. There was a struggle. The Navy and the Air Force wanted to go in to China and take out the air bases. The State Department and the Army (along with the White House) thought that was a fraught option and opposed it. At that time, the voices of moderation prevailed because by that time both the USSR and China had nuclear weapons. Given this precedent, would Russia forgo attacking NATO bases in Poland if Ukrainian and NATO planes took off from those bases and shot down Russian planes and provided close tactical air support to Ukrainian troops?
Medvedev specifically addressed this a few weeks back when he said:
""If we imagine that NATO aircraft delivered in the future will be serviced by their military on the territory of some overgrown Poland (the only possibility, taking into account the deplorable state of the defense industry in Malorossia), this will be a direct entry of the Atlanticists into the war against Russia with all the ensuing consequences.
"All persons making decisions on the supply (repair) of such equipment or weapons, along with foreign mercenaries and military instructors, will become legitimate military targets," he added."
It could just be bluster, but just reporting what he said.
I think it's a slight auto-translate infelicity but basically means Poland. As for Malorussia that's the true name of Ukraine which is what it was referred to hundreds of years ago since it was never a real country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Russia
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
Brilliant move from the US trying to show the Russians they better not kill their intelligence officers coordinating the Ukrainian military inside Ukraine by sending a 36 million dollar drone with highly sensitive and advanced surveillance equipment to get brought down just off the coast of Crimea so the Russians can recover it and analyze the wreckage. That'll show them. If the Russians do it again what are they going to do land a Global Hawk at a Russian airbase? That'll teach them.
While simpleton western troll puppets like Feral Finster ( what a pathetic name tag!!) spew nonsense, the Russians are literally grinding and pulverizing the Ukrainian military across the entire 1,000 KM front, every day. The Russians are also now confident enough to start visibly bitch-slapping the USA military via the 6 Kinzahl missile strike and the Reaper drone takedown. The Russians are destroying large numbers of major artillery pieces, air defense systems, and counter battery radars of the Ukrainian military every day + 400-500KIA's. This is how you pacify a country full of rabid, hateful Nazi's. The Ukrainians and their controllers talk endlessly about this big spring offensive. Ok, bring on your spring offensive. Meanwhile the Russians are advancing rapidly across all of Donbass every day, while keeping 200,000 mobilized reserves in the rear, reading to deliver the crushing blows. Souigu and Putin have big smiles on their faces these days, and know they are in complete control. You can ignore the truth, but you cannot ignore the consequences of the truth. We are witnessing the truth in Ukraine today. The West is reeling and just full of hot air. Ukraine is going to lose 500,000+ KIA's and another 500,000 -750,000 wounded in this conflict, as well as much of their territory. This conflict will become an outright slaughter soon.
Yeah, I normally appreciate FF's comments at Taibbi and Greenwald's SSs, but he/she/they are starting to strike me as a potential NAFO concern troll and here to put words in the mouths of others, propose straw man arguments and otherwise sow doubt in the excellent analysis of Simplicius. That said, even FF could end up being right or at least what happens could end up matching up with his/her/their version of events (past and predicted). I'm not willing to write FF off yet.
DEFINITELY looks like payback for the NATO HQ strike, both stratobomber and the drone, doesn't look like its something NATO is going to forgive in a hurry.
Perhaps they shouldn't assassinate young women?
And while NATO is heavily involved in Ukraine, it's unlikely they can pull an Erdo-coup in Arabia, as they lose their gas-tap.
Blinken and Nuland are such genuises. Were they born in the same pod as Liz Truss?
The irony is, Putin had applied to join NATO, and they laughed at him. They expanded NATO up to Russia's borders, and started preparing for biological attacks. Is there anything lower?
Just think if the US/NATO had accepted Russian membership. Rus & China would not be in a de facto alliance, there would be no "Eurasian Tiger Commonwealth", and there would have BEEN a new "European Security Architecture" long already.
Americans beleive their religious hogwash that "God is with them" though (Not realising that actually it was industrialised production of guns against those without), and now they face the ignoble collapse of their disgusting and ignoble "civilisation".
Sad it is that Europa will fall with them, although once the US Occupying bases are gone from Europe, and the Nordstream rebuilt, perhaps with more humility and much less arrogance, we Europeans will be allowed to join the Eurasian Community as well.
Much will depend upon the direction of the short-term future, how the current Banking Crises will be resolved, and how many WMDs the US deploys - and which ones. And where.
Sure that would be great, and due to growing up without a television I do not suffer from boredom. Alas, the more “interesting” things get the less I like it although I suppose the upside is that I get to olive through a real life version of a Neal Stephenson William Gibson Bruce Sterling novel, so there’s that.
They decided to arrest VVP today...looks like major desperation( p.r only no effect)..or maybe 'payback' for hypersonic attack on nato bunker, which seems more and more real by the day and their escalations-provocations.
They are very anxious before XI arrival in Moscow(he will stay three days, very unusual).
Yep it seems to me timed specifically for the meeting with Xi to subtly set the tone and imply that Xi is meeting with a criminal as a way to nudge him I suppose
The poll... I think there is a third option. Russia could be telling the US the jig is up, that if US wants a war, Russia is ready and now better than later or forever. If the US were serious, that B-52 would have been armed. Next time the B-52 might well be going down. I wonder if the Russians will let the US try that particular provocation again. I can hear the phone call between Austin and Shoigu...
"Russia is ready and now better than later or forever"
And that is the big decision, now or later. While trying to avoid WWIII is commendable is it realistic when faced with a crazed, implacable, morally corrupt enemy that wants war?
If a fight is unavoidable get in the first punch, and make it a knockout blow the enemy will not recover from.
They don't need to. They can keep this pace and exhaust the US's will to fight. 70% are obese in the US. They don't have the military capable manpower to fight Russia. The US public has already had enough war after Iraq and Afghanistan, and those weren't tough fights.
Correct. This is the basic reality in the USA. Recruitment is down, 20 years of being an occupation force against nations that could not compare militarily has made them weak. SOF's have grown and are about the only effective thing in the arsenal, but that alone will not win wars against a near peer. The MIC keep churning out expensive lemons some of which are so bad they get cancelled while others just bleed the treasury for years. (Zumwalt LCS, cancelled). There is no way the US military is going to walk into Ukraine and fight...
Yea the LCS classes were a joke, shit-canned basically before ever coming properly into service. They are coming off the production line and going straight into the dumpster. The US MIC is basically a ponzy scheme like Amway or Cutco. Except they don't pass around stupid knives or hair care products, they pass around "next generation" weapon systems as tokens to transfer the money.
It kind of reminds me of the Balkans. You see a lot of unfinnished construction sights which were "fully" funded, started construction, and the funding *somehow* ran out halfway through.
They are definitely pulling out some stops re. off-shore surveillance in the Black Sea. They can't do anything if they fly in Romania or Baltic states, but the Black sea is probably most important area where US can gather intelligence of Crimea and eastern Ukraine/southern Russia.
If they can push those drones out from the 60 miles to 130 miles or 200 miles, maybe even that could help a lot in taking away these reconnaissance platform abilities.
Seems that the "major war" predicted for a month ago hasn't happened. Russia continues to dither.
Advancing successfully on every single frontline is dithering? As for 'major war', the Rasputitsa (mud season) came extremely early (normally mid to late march, this time in mid february). Why would Russia launch an offensive in heavy mud season. For now it's doing local offensives and very successfully so, Avdeevka, Bakhmut and entire Kremennaya lines are collapsing for AFU
IMHO, Russia should have launched its major offensive long before that. As it is, Ukraine has a history of throwing the untrained and ill-equipped at the lines without concern for losses, while reserving the trained and equipped for major attacks.
We saw it at Kherson, while Ukraine moved up forces to assault Liman. Even internet commentators saw it coming. Russia didn't bring in reinforcements at Krasny Liman, and Ukraine ended up capturing both, much as it pains me.
Ukraine is marshalling weapons and troops to do this again, and then secure another round of weapons and training while people make excuses, dismiss this as a "propaganda victory" (but one that gets the desired results from the West), etc..
I can wish that things were otherwise, but they aren't.
why would Russia prevent nato/usa from wasting weapons and ordnance they cannot replace?
long expensive war is bad for the empire
Using one's soldiers to catch munitions is hardly a strategy.
It's the Ukrainians using soldiers to catch artillery fire. Primarily anyway and by a large margin. Russia is apparently content to grind the Ukrainians down slowly without taking too many risks. Their approach has gradually changed as the war has progressed.
Ukraine doesn't care. The price is obviously worth it to Bankovskaya.
It is funny to read this against the background of dozens of videos from Ugledar and, before that, Bakhmut, where Russian soldiers stormed positions on foot in the fields. Losing dozens of people at a time.
And dozens of armored vehicles destroyed daily in the fields of Ugledar
Ed is correct. Russia is in effect disarming NATO.
Was it Kherson that Russia successfully evacuated/retreated from because of the possibility that AFU could blow up a dam and flood it or something? Or am I mixing up cities/towns?
Not exactly. Ukraine threw forces at Kherson over the summer, suffering great losses, but drawing reinforcements away from Krasny Liman, which was lost as a result.
Later, Russia abandoned Kherson as well, to much western cheers and new weapons and cash.
Yes, Kherson was abandoned due to the inability to keep it secure because of the threat of destruction of the dam which would have completely cut off all Russian forces on the west bank of the river.
So it was a smart move both tactically and strategically even though they may have sacrificed too much to take it in the first place. Oh well, war is war and shit happens, right?
So you take it, hold a referendum, then abandon it?
The abandonment might have been necessary, but it smacks of not having a plan in the first place.
One thing that Ukraine can't replace are combat capable people. It's already thrown the incapable people into the battle, only to meet their deaths, while its cadre of capable fighters is shrinking. More weapons won't help if the remaining troops aren't capable of operating them effectively. Ukraine has just about drained the pool.
We heard that one before Kherson as well.
Strelkov 6th column hurrah patriot Nato usufull idiot troll (like saker used to say, critics but providing zero solution), with zero eco/geopol global game view. Why do you think Assad came in Moscow? And XI next tuesday? Followed soon by both Iranians and MBS?
When you have no argument, attack thr messenger.
A hurrah patriot is the opposite of what I am. And nobody asked me for a solution, but I can give one anyway- the Russian leadership needs to devote the resources to fight and win. Not this halfassing.
Assad came to Moscow because he has no other patron, BTW. The man knows western promises and good faith are worthless, especially after Iraq and Libya.
Kherson has zero relevance to current situation. Kherson withdrawal was not combat related in any way shape or form. It was geographical/supply/logistics related. To state otherwise is to openly lie and deceive.
You would make a much better argument for that case if you used Kharkov as an example not Kherson. Russia held Kherson easily and was even advancing in places before the pull out because AFU had begun preparations (already struck it several times with HIMARS) to blow Khakovka dam.
Kharkov is the only semi-mistake but not really as much of one as you think. It's not like they didn't know forces were there, but owing to how few forces Russia has actually committed to Ukraine (much lower than you think, less than 100k for most of the year), they simply didn't have the reinfrocements to do anything about it. So it was a bit of a shell game and Sun Tzu attempt at 'pretending strength' when in reality they had nothing to cover that entire giant region and were outnumbered 5:1 or 8:1 depending who you ask.
Now there's rough numerical parity so such events are impossible to reproduce for the AFU.
I mentioned Kherson to show an example of the Ukrainian strategy of sacrificing untrained troops in vast numbers without concern for losses, in order to save the better trained for when really needed.
Cynical, but it worked. At least Russia finally started increasing troop numbers after Liman. A few more,available reinforcements and Russia would still hold Krasny Liman.
I've heard some reports that Ukraine has in reserve some good troops for a last ditch offensive in the Spring.
I've heard reports that that is true but that Ze has re-committed many of them to Bakhmut instead, significantly impacting his ability for a successful "Spring Offensive".
Using up cannon fodder in Bakhmut is a cost-opportunity, too. The cannon fodder could also be used as the first wave of attack in the southern attack, instead they will have less low-trained cannon fodder for any attack in the Zaporizhe-line and instead use more trained reserves in the first wave of attack.
So sad.
no one knows for certain how many. Yes there's some reports they have upwards of 120,000 reserves getting ready for the next offensives, which is a lot. If it's true then that can certainly make a dent. Although they don't quite have the armored vehicles and equipment/ammo in general to arm that entire number
I doubt that if in the 120k(if real?), the forced mobilized ukie crowd in the streets or supermarkets/offices/homes of Odessa, Kharkov etc will fight like bandera fanatics who are mainly gone now.Even those 'trained' in the West, not so sure.
Uke troops in reserve. Expecting a last Hurrah like Rommel in North Africa.
Rommel got beaten by lack of supply, as will Ukraine.
Armchair generals and Monday Morning quarterbacks.
Russia has clear and good reasons for doing what it did. That it did not work out according to desires or plans - that's reality.
And here's reality: the Russian people's support for this conflict is growing - not fading.
The rest of the world's support for the West and NATO and Ukraine is falling, not growing.
Russia's capability to accelerate or maintain this conflict is growing, not falling.
The West's military logistics, military industrial capacity, vaunted Wunderwaffen and their own political stability and economic resilience are all failing including France getting ejected out of its NW Africa colonial zone.
This looks like an overwhelming strategic victory for Russia, China and the rest of the world to me.
I hope you're right.
Decide for yourself based on the points I made as well as your own understanding.
Perhaps you spend too much time reading Strelkov and his like. While that man did valiantly defend the LDPR in the early days - he is equally not credible in terms of anymore more strategic than a fight in front of him. He has no recognition that Russia was simply not ready to confront the West in 2014 - no hypersonic missiles deployed, no 8 years of import substitutions, no buildup of cooperation with China, no recognition in Saudi Arabia of mutual interests against the West, no re-creation of the 1st Tank Guard and 20th Combined Arms armies, etc etc.
Nor is this type of error restricted to Strelkov. Ritter and MacGregor have also pronounced fully military views on how Russia should conduct the SMO but the battlespace clearly extends beyond Ukraine's borders and above the purely military plane.
Relations with Turkey, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the rest of the world are extremely important; recognition of fundamental Western limitations in ammunition, the vulnerabilities of the Ukrainian electrical grid and the lack of consensus in the West's populations (note I differentiate between political leadership and popular views), the commodity upcycle/supercycle going on combined with the West's continued overfocus on alternative energy and more.
I have never read anything by Strelkov. I couldn't even tell you off the top of my head where to read anything by Strelkov.
What I have read are analyses, some more informed than others, some by better credentialed, others less credentialed, all of which have proven wildly inaccurate in practice. Looking back, they seem to have consisted of wishful thinking and fanboi cheerleading, combined with post hoc rationalizations when the enemy proved to be less stupid, less cowardly, less impotent and more proactive than the analysts assumed or than I might have liked.
I'd love to be wrong. BUT I am always careful reading anything that tells me what I want to hear, because I am aware of confirmation bias.
For that matter, I haven't said anything about what Russia should or should not have done in 2014.
The only way I see your last sentence not coming true is if the Insane Empire stages a false flag nuke or something massive and then proceeds to turn this into WWIV.
Here's the thing: if the US and Europe cannot supply the Ukrainians with enough artillery ammo - the same applies to NATO. Only it would be worse because NATO stocks are already depleted vs. the Ukraine's ammunition stocks at the beginning of the SMO.
It isn't just artillery: Russia has fired more cruise missiles alone in the 1 year of SMO than the entire Tomahawk program has manufactured in its 30 years of existence.
So the notion that the West could accomplish anything in conventional warfare is ludicrous to the extreme.
A false flag nuclear attack is irrelevant because of this - the only thing the West could do to "win" is a first strike nuclear attack.
And the scary part is that possibility is not off the table despite the obvious capability of Russia and China to respond.
Yikes. If true that's simply amazing about the amounts of cruise missiles. Are you sure that Russia has fired more than the US/NATO have ever even made?
From the archive here: "SITREP: Update 2/18 - Major War Confirmed Imminent" rather strongly suggested a potential for major actions "coming within a week". Looking a little further back: "The Coming Russian Offensive 2023" on Feb 1 concluded "the new phase 2.0 offensive will finally be on the menu relatively soon."
So none of this happened because mud season came early? Perhaps so, but they could've started in January, as many were predicting at the time.
Why is Prigozhin complaining that the MoD is cutting his ammo supplies again, saying that "Soledar was enough"? He seems to think he's going to capture Bakhmut anyhow, but no thanks to the Kremlin. (H/T Rolo Slavskiy).
I must say I'm glad if Russia is not so eager to escalate this war by advancing on Odessa, Kharkov and/or Kiev. Just because they are prepared for such an exploit, doesn't mean it would be wise to go ahead with it. Why make the Neocon idiots any more crazed than they are already?
There will be NO big arrow offensive before the Donbass def line fully collapse and the eventual ukro counter offensive failled..why? Because after there will be almost nothing left on ukie side, no def lines dozens of thousands will be KIA MIA POW WIA.It then will be wide open for RF.Missiles strikes will continue to destroy defense systems(nato already gave them a lot, lot of S 300 are destroyed, patriot will defend the regime assets,if any, if ever?).
Then F 16 in, ok nato fine, like the 402 fighters already downed + 222 helicos, 20/30/50 F 16 will follow the same path.
NATO will only have two choices then: negociate aka capitulate or double down entering 404 and all the bets are then for a Syrian ''solution''.And a DMZ.
White House Jean pierre just announced they have money for 404 till sept.
With the banks collapsing, unpopular bailout, even more inflation as they already restarted a de facto secret QE, official QE will follow soon and they will have to stop to increase interest rates otherwise all banks kapout and 404 will not be essential suddenly.
FED + Biden neocons have two catastrophic options: rates up = banks collapse which means bailout up to trillions, recession etc..or QE, rates down free money for the 1% again and hyperinflation for the 99%.
Sometime wars stop, are lost or won for non military reasons.
But it is also very dangerous as they can choose major diversion aka nukes or some kind of crazy stuff.
They will opt to save the banks of course and the 1% who pays their elections (2024 potus campaign starts in sept).Hyperinflation will be for the deplorables, for us.
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/another-banking-crisis-is-unlikely
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/another-banking-crisis-is-unlikely?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1063805&post_id=108855222&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
"Sometime wars stop, are lost or won for non military reasons."
I would suggest that it is those non-military reasons that are primarily responsible for much of Russia's actions (or "inactions", as the case may be) to date. War is, above all, political in nature as well as a huge information game played by all sides. Only the Russian General Staff have a deep view of all this and more - they are the only ones who actually know what is going on and why. The rest of us are mere armchair generals.
If you actually read the very post you quoted, you'd see that I concluded that the last wave of mobilized fighters would not even be ready until early february because they need 3 months+ of training and they were only mobilized in the last days of October, which would put them at the very earliest in late January to be finished. But then you might need extra lead time to get them situated into their units etc etc. So that does cut into the timeline.
Yes, I agree that you were saying that the offensive would come in February at the earliest, while others like MacGregor and The Duran were expecting it in December or January. Perhaps they were hoping for a more expeditious, urgently motivated mobilization of troops.
But: going forward, are you predicting that there will be a big offensive as soon as mud season is over? I am hoping that there won't be, or at least not unless NATO dramatically escalates first.
Yep I specifically wrote in that report that there's a *good chance* it won't come because of how CLOSE they were cutting it to mud season and the mobiks not being done yet. By the way interestingly enough, my mobik timeline was vindicated yesterday when I saw a new interview with an actual mobik himself and he said that he was 'trained for 3 months at such and such location' -- so it proved that they did in fact train for 3 months+ although obviously many of them trained much less and were put into combat very quickly to plug emergency holes, but those are outliers.
And no I'm not predicting there'll be a huge offensive just immediately after end of mud season because, as I stated in the reader's mailbag I believe that the Russian MOD's objectives and plans are quite 'fluid' and they're also waiting to see the AFU's actions and where they commit their forces. So for instance, Russia doesn't just have a 'preset' offensive already scheduled for exactly such and such direction. They are going to see first where the AFU is moving/committing its supposedly 'vast' amounts of new reserves. Now keep in mind that doesn't mean they will wait until those reserves are brought to bear on a new offensive, so I'm not saying Russia will necessarily let Ukraine launch their offensive first (though that's a possibility) but rather that even if Russia does choose to launch first, they will still launch it at vectors which are at least partially in response to where AFU's reserves are being moved, in order to hit them at the weakest point etc.
If you asked me the question a month or two ago, I would have felt much more (as I did then) that Russia needed urgency and would certainly strike first due to the danger of all the new western equipment that's supposed to come. And in fact I partially conveyed this in those february reports.
However, now I feel slightly differently due to the fact that most of the 'scary' numbers of Western armor aid have in fact proven to be bogus. Instead of the 250-400+ new tanks that a month or two ago we thought would be sent to Ukraine, now it's looking like all the European countries are dithering and only sending a tiny fraction. If that remains the case then I no longer feel that Russia needs urgency or has any time pressure at all.
This therefore makes me have a slightly different forecast which is that Russia could very well wait for Ukraine to attack first to really destroy them easily in the open field (as they did in Kherson etc) and then launch their own larger offensives afterwards.
This could change if news about European armor changes and somehow they recommit to sending vast numbers, but as it stands right now the numbers they're sending don't seem too worrying to me, and Russia now has the luxury to wait and let Ukraine launch their offensive first.
Also, the other big thing that has to be waited for is the fall of Bakhmut simply to gauge how AFU will react and how their 2ndary defense lines to the west will hold up. But of course that fall will come much sooner than the end of mud season anyway, or at least most likely.
Are there any circumstances where you think the Russians would never launch any new offensive at all, but simply continue to defend the existing battle lines and make small, incremental advances as they're doing now?
Crazed Neocons are a given. Lindsey Graham likes a good spanking, so I don't know why he is so anti-Russian after Putin pulls Lindsey's panties down and tans his butt. After Nord Stream Russia understood it is a bare-knuckle fight and they are happy to oblige.
Two reasons why it can't possibly be a bare-knuckle fight:
(1) Nukes.
(2) Putin is a Neocon too.
The Winter was mild and it looks like Spring came early. Maybe the West are a pack of fools, but Russian knows her own dirt and weather.
Paul Craig Roberts has been criticizing Russia for going too slow. He thinks that is what is emboldening the US and a short blitzkrieg war would be better. My answer is, "You want a conventional, urban, trench, and proxy war don't you? You know what's next after that?" Satellites? Take out major NATO assets? There is a lot of space to escalate into. I would prefer not. Slow boil and let them come to us? Besides, the big victories are the reproachment of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and that implicates Syria, and then we have Turkey smiling all the way to the bank. China, the peace-make; the USA, war needy.
He's speaking from a very general standpoint of strategy in a vacuum and has no clue about the actual real on the ground considerations that Russia is dealing with as he has no insider info for their various supply/materiel/troop situations. There are a myriad of reasons for why Russia might be choosing to fight the way it's fighting based on the various limitations of supply/troop/logistic/etc it's experiencing which unfortunately do not correspond to his more 'generalized' prescriptions
Bakhmut has been encircled, cauldronized and collapsing for the past 5 weeks. I suppose it might fall FOR REAL at some point. Then it's on to Chasiv Yar 10 km west. Russia could get to Kramatorsk before 2025!
The eastern philosophy of patience is not in the DNA of the west, especially now with the decline in all sectors of USA society. As an American, I wish things were otherwise, but they are not. For the WP to publish such an article, things must be much worse. And if UKR is admitting 100k casualties, that too might be an underestimation. I don’t think RUS went into this SMO without great forethought. China -Russia relations haven’t been better. Covid, wherever it came exactly from, came from the East. China is threatening us with Taiwan. All this is chipping away at US/western hegemony. It is a war of attrition on many fronts - on the battlefield, economically, pandemically, through technology. SMO is a piece of this massive effort to bring the west to its knees. Idk about you, it seems to be pretty successful so far. We are learning some painful lessons.
Nobody is saying that casualties aren't real. I'm saying that neither Bankovskaya nor NATO care.
Anyway, the West was willing to let a relative backwater like Afghanistan simmer along for 20 years before finally admitting defeat, and it's not as if there was a unanimous consensus in favor of leaving even then.
So be honest. What do you think the Russians should be doing now (or should have done) in order to end this much quicker? I'd like as much detail as you are willing to provide. I don't necessarily think you're a concern troll on this topic, but you are echoing lots of NAFO type trolls at other sites, so I'd really like to see where you're coming from.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but I would have devoted a lot more troops, engaged in a relentless SEAD campaign, I would have kept up the pressure on Kiev and forced the regime there to capitulate. Smashed every bridge, radio station, TV tower, rail line, warehouse, etc. in Kiev occupied territory. Westbound transport is allowed to pass, but every eastbound truck, train, car, bicycle, etc. gets wrecked.
I certainly would not be releasing captured Ukrainian troops on a promise of good behavior, which Russia did in the opening days of the war. Nor would I be releasing the pressure in hopes of negotiations.
You've seen my comments elsewhere on other forums. You should know by now that I don't make rationalizations for my side, and I try to avoid wishful thinking.
For anyone who has had to work on frozen ground, waiting for sufficient frost to get into the ground to carry heavy weight and the rapidity for which that frost leaves, is paramount to strategy.
In this case, Old Man Winter gave Ukraine an out, which they did not accept.
And you would have received zero support from Global South, Brics etc...though a total eco defeat.
Think global, think 'it is the economy stupid'..
What makes you so sure that the global south would not support a quick war but would support a long war of attrition?
Definitely, Feral Finster is full of it and knows nothing.
And losing the ability to fight war is something the Natoites are terrified of, especially when Americans are concerned that they can't recruit enough new recruits for a myriad of reasons (Most unfit, the rest uninterested)
NATO countries are openly calling for regime change and war crimes trials in Russia, along with the breakup of the Russian Federation. A year ago, that would have been crazy talk. It's certainly not how people who are terrified talk.
Typical of your ilk to move goalposts.
That's not crazy talk, that's a mask off moment.
They are indeed terrified at not being able to actually wage a war against Russia.
As are you, knowing that Gamma Males like you are next on the chopping block
More argument by insult.
Nope! That's just you dodging anything that disagrees with you
Quite poorly, if I must say
Behold the Gamma, the 6th columnists mask unveiled! Watch him squirt.
NATO countries are claiming boys can be girls, that Diversity, Inclusion, Equity (DIE) are more important than fitness and mental capacity.
Ergo, recruitment, in the face of being put into the trenches in Ukraine, is not high on the priority list for American and European gamers.
So far, NATO hasn't needed to take such a direct role. Admittedly, most people in most NATO states are less than jazzed at the prospect. But that's why I mentioned the Goering quote, to illustrate how easy it is to use patriotism to get people to do something not in their own self-interest.
"China is threatening us with Taiwan" WTF? China is making no threats. They are issuing warnings in answer to US threats.
China, whose Economy and Military were built by American Corporations and Criminals inside the American Political System.
Nah, they never learn any lessons, they don't care about the pain, only the money and power.
Remember what was and still is the goals of the RF? Demiliterization of Ukraine, this is being done with scary efficiency.
Not really, since the West continues to lavish arms, money and training on Ukraine.
An army isn't just weaponry. What are weapons useful for if trained personnel aren't available to operate the equipment. The Taliban didn't have equipment, but they won because they had personnel. Agreed!
The West also is lavishing training, in case you hadn't noticed.
All these weapons are called systems, which means they also need maintenance and special ammunition. Making their overall value transient.
Please don't be eager to be offended. I am only sharing my point of view. It does not necessarily negate your point of view it could as well enhance your knowledge.
I'm not the one making argument by insult, the way so many here do, and I'm not offended. I'd love to be wrong, but I've heard these same confident predictions of imminent victory in the past, along with excuses when things don't pan out as anticipated.
Last I checked, western countries are providing training on weapons systems as well as weapons. Stuff that was a red line in the past is duly ignored. Don't be surprised when western fighter jets and sheep dipped pilots are supplied as well.
FF you are ignorant because you refuse to consider the facts. Or you are a paid troll.
" lavish arms, money and training on Ukraine." Arms? Nowhere near enough and sub standard in most cases (Javelin); money? To the MIC; training? Fuck all if you listen to the recent captured POWs. They stated they were given basic firing practice and taught how to march.
But go on, stick to your basic, blinkered view. You are entertaining at least.
As I said, Ukraine sacrifices the untrained to reserve the trained for when needed. See Liman.
Feral:
Money. U.S. arms, most old and nearly obsolete sold at full price (obscene). All new equipment stripped of modern updates, and in insufficient numbers. All talk.
Europe. Gathers up antiquated Soviet stuff. Full price. Russia laughs.
And yet you go on.
Yet it seems to keep the Ukrainian army in the field.; Keep telling yourself that. I don't believe in underestimating my enemies.
Not only that, but your comment is an admission that the West could provide much better.
It seems you prefer the speak first and think later / not think at all approach to analysis of the war.
Thank you Andrew. Could you be kind enough to impart your analysis of the war. In this way, we can have a constructive discution.
Considering the attrition of Ukie/NATO assets, both materiel and personnel, I reckon their would be many militaries in the world that wish they were capable of such "dithering".
When Bakhmut falls the Russians need to reinforce the breakthrough to drive the Ukrainians back more rapidly so that they don't have a chance to build new lines of defence before the Slavyansk/Kramatorsk line is reached. Also, a drive southwards puts the NY/Totestk agglomeration in danger. Together with the increasing encirclement of Avdiivka, the Ukrainians will have no choice but to give up on any Spring offensive.
One consistent and ongoing failure on the part of Russia has been in taking "operational pauses" after victories, pauses that give the enemy plenty of time to regroup.
Everybody needs to regroup and reload.
There's this thing called "logistics".
It's important.
After all, only the U.S. of A. issues its soldiers with backpacks full of infinite ammunition.
Oh, wait.
That's your level of ignorance.
My bad.
Logistics applies both ways, and the productive capacity of the West for ammunition is much higher than that of Russia.
Please consider all the reports indicating that for every 6 thousand artillery shells the UF fires per day, the RF shells 20 thousand per day. That is a 1 to 3.3 ratio. Not an insignificant amount wouldn't you say. It also correlates with casualties.
I have never doubted the kill ratios or number of casualties.
I am saying that neither Bankovskaya nor NATO care.
You are changing the subject you brought up.. You stated,
"the productive capacity of the West for ammunition is much higher than that of Russia."
and when shown very strong indications that this is not correct, you change the subject, instead of acknowledging a likely error.
actually it's the opposite. Current capacity of the entire west is about ~100-150k shells a month give or take (Ukraine requires 300k) which is about 1.2 - 1.8m a year. The lowest current estimates of Russian capacity is 3m a year and 7m roughly at the higher estimates. So, wrong again. Russia's capacity, at least apropos various artillery systems, is far greater than the entire combined west at the moment.
I say at the moment because there is potential for them to all ramp up eventually and possibly match Russian output but that ramp up would take approx 3 years or more, and there are many challenges which could prevent such a ramp up from being successfully completed at all.
You should educate yourself here: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/on-shells-and-armor-the-war-of-sustainment
Both sideshave already been ramping up production in recent months.
Right now, Ukraine is trying to buy time.
Wrong again.
"Europe produced around 300,000 155mm shells in total in 2022. Ukraine currently uses around 90,000-100k per months, according to estimates. 250,000 shells per month from 🇪🇺 countries as reportedly requested by 🇺🇦 is in near to medium terms highly unrealistic to say the least."
The ramp up to even BEGIN reaching Ukrainian usages would take 3-4 years. NO ONE is ramping up anything even close to what Ukraine uses.
You're posting so much outright false and fraudulent information that you are now officially on my agent provocateur watch list. Consider this a warning and think very carefully before you continue posting incorrect information that's known to be false. This is not a free for all for agent provocateurs here.
Two things.
1) "Some have pointed to this before and after shot, showing what appears to be like a deformed prop blade after the Russian fuel dump"
That's not a before and after shot. If you watch the released video, there are two damaged prop blades (weirdly enough, both are opposite each other) and two undamaged ones in the same shot. They are rotating quite slowly so there is no "camera effect" to contemplate here, either. One blade is only slightly damaged (bent), while the other one appears to be quite mauled by the impact (whether is was the fuel or the jet scraping it).
2) "They’ve never taken such a trajectory before, AND in darkmode with transponders turned OFF."
How does Rybar (or whoever drew that infographic) know the trajectory of the drone and the location of the incident, when the transponders were turned off?
But at least one of the prop blades is bent in the direction of rotation. How would that even be possible? Also I only see one blade clearly deformed.
Re: direction and the transponder - The only thing I recall reading (yesterday) was that the drone was approaching the Russian border (one assumes Crimea or something - and I do think they said border and not coast, but that could be a translation thing?) and had its transponder turned off. I suppose a Russian official must have said that.
Liquid has about 900 times the density of the atmosphere, so a heavy fuel wash could possibly and maybe easily damage a rotating prop.
Ah, interesting. But in the same direction as it's rotating?
Yes, I meant to note that comment of yours.
A bit of a mystery
OMG, how did i not notice that? The prop is bent the wrong way for an impact.
Thanks for pointing it out.
How come the camera lens had no spray from the jet fuel?
The AFU ofensive în the South is a pipe dream. Can t be done. They have maybe 50k soldiers, the russians have at least 150k soldiers there. AFU needs a thousand tanks, hundreds of altelery pieces, planes, hundreds of IFVs and a shitload of ammo. Plus the russians have build 3 layers of fortifications there. No way they will attack, they just can t pull it off.
The 'sneak attack' seems to have been telegraphed in a late February demarche.
https://tass.com/politics/1579703
Thanks. There could be other 'behind the scenes' power plays as well, red lines crossed we aren't fully aware of etc. For instance there were rumors US gave GLSDB, and we know for almost definite they gave JDAM-ER and that could've been a possible conveyed red line to US which caused Russia to use the Kinzhal strike.
Oh and one more thing, about Bachmut. Maybe it's just me, but after all this time you sort of know when things are not going well for RU currently, just by observing the propaganda on each side. When RU (or Prigozhin's) propaganda suddenly keeps quiet about Bachmut, and the western propaganda is churning out all these articles how the situation there is dire for the AFU, you sort of know what's up... Thing is, if things were going well for RU in Bachmut, it would have been the other way around.
Are you saying it's going well for Russia or Ukraine?
Simplicius ... Don’t worry about that guy. Judging by his language level and name is just another troll.
I have a question that has been gnawing at me. Why suddenly in the past 2-3 days there has been a slew of articles in MSM about how badly Ukraine is doing? We all hope that they are finally starting to say the truth but I don’t think it is that.
Feels too coordinated because NYT, WaPo, Politico, etc. don’t just start doing a 180 together unless it’s coming from above. Also they still do the same “.. but Russia is doing worse” trope so they’re not ready to give up.
Why then? What’s the goal? What do they want us and/or the Russians to believe?
Well I think to some extent at the moment they have no choice because Bakhmut is starting to hit the critical peak and the losses are getting really bad. But of course an obvious answer could also be that due to these losses, the Western MSM paymasters are desperate to rekindle interest in Western audiences for the AFU so they're perhaps trying to give a desperate feel to the situation to give a 'push' to Western gov'ts to speed up the critical aid they so badly need.
If you notice each article, when you really read between the lines, reads almost as a weapons ad where they present each segment very predictably, almost like setup and punchline. They first give this 'grim' and urgent background context and then they sprinkle in some quotes from the 'on the ground' AFU commanders/soldiers who basically beg for more weapons and breathlessly explain how badly they need new [tanks/air defense/fighter jets/artillery/ammo/etc].
The only other conceivable explanation I can think of is that there are those in the powers-that-be group that truly do think holding Bakhmut is a strategically poor choice and that Ukraine would stand a better chance to give it up and regroup and so maybe they're doing this so as to put pressure on Ukrainian leadership to give up its bloodthirsty obsession with Bakhmut and just retreat to save its men so they can salvage what they have.
Thanks. My thoughts:
1. I think if you have a motivated populace in the west for Ukraine and they think more aid will help then these stories will drum up support for more aid. In this instance Ukraine fatigue has set in and most people either don’t care or are against it. Telling them the situation for Ukraine is bad has the opposite effect
2. There are some people in the U.S. leadership who want to get out and pivot to China. That could be it but I’m not sure they’re as influential as Victoria - at least not yet. Also even they know the way they get out is as important as getting out.
After more thought I think it’s a hedge by lowering expectations. They are planning a big spring offensive - it’s coming I’m sure of it. And the goal of this offensive is to give Russia a bloody nose and show the world they’re still fighting. If it succeeds, they can say “look how amazing the Ukrainians are” .. and everyone loves a good comeback story. If it fails, they can say “look the situation was bad and we told you so we might as well get out now”. In the second case they’re hoping Russia will be tired of fighting or they can put diplomatic pressure on them to settle for less than a full resolution of the problem (denazification, demilitarization and getting Odessa, etc.).
Standard narrative formation technique.
"Oceana has always been at war with East Asia"
Dribble the bad news in early, before it's undeniable, then you can claim you were always right.
Are you even capable of identifying propaganda from ONE side? Let's see what you think happens to meet that def'n from the US before we make a judgment.
*Scratches head*
Here's an idea for future accidents with pentagon drones, add a hook or net on the bottom of an old Su27, send them fishing each day. play the ''we're not touching you, we're not touching you game'', just like they do.
I actually saw someone at MofA suggest that is what happened in this case. Tail hook or exhaust nozzle strike to the blades of the prop, but I still don't understand how it could be bent in the same direction it's rotating.
I thought of the tail hook idea too, except i dont think they have them as they are not carrier based.
They can still be added, even to non carrier based fighters.
Get some pilots that are experienced with mid-flight refuelling, send them out. Actual practicality aside (its probably way to dangerous anyway) I just find the idea of an old Su-27 dragging a helpless drone on a tether hilarious.
Another must-read from Simplicius! I don't know how he does it - he must be five guys with too much time on their hands. :-)
By the way, Simplicius - don't waste your time with "Feral Finster" - he's obviously a "concern troll." Those guys never stop: they make random assertions with zero evidence, and when debunked they ignore the debunking and come back the in the next thread with the same garbage. MoA is infested with these scum.
I personally think most of them are Ukrainian-American Democrats, or Ukrainian-Canadians. The US Democratic Party is infested with these types, people like Alexandra Chalupa, who was the main driver of the meme that the Russians hacked the DNC back in 2016. She was the first to claim being "hacked by Russians" and was instrumental in working with the Ukrainian Embassy and was likely in contact with Ukrainian hackers.
The proper rule in dealing with "concern trolls" is like any other troll: ignore them completely. Never engage them or you end up going into a rabbit hole and wasting your time arguing with a black hole.
Like that fuggin neofeudalculture guy over at MOA....
Respectfully disagree. Totally.
With what?
Here, HEAR💙🇷🇺❤️
Thanks, I noticed these types use alot of sophistry and logical fallacy tricks like strawman and red herring arguments where they 'answer a different question' than one you asked, just to give the impression that they refuted/defeated your argument. It is a really disingenuous way of trying to argue and I have my eye on all these funny types.
Rolo Slavskiy (Previously Vincent Law when he was tied with Richard Spencer's Alt Right and as Roy Batty when he was with Andrew Anglin's Daily Stormer) is another example of these useful idiot concern troll types
Talk of a spring offensive rages on. But which side will go, Russia or Ukraine? I can see neither side going for the 'big arrow' move, or one side, but not both. Suppose Ukraine does make a big push between Kherson/Zap and, after massive losses on the fortifications, gets 30-40 km in. Then what? The Russians would bring up reinforcements, close in from either side and annihilate them. Ukraine is just desperate and crazy enough to try this. And the Russians will let the Ukies make their move first. Why try a big push when the US satellites are giving coordinates for every exposed Russian grouping. Let the Ukies come to them. Meanwhile, the AFU's resources for their vaunted offensive are being tapped to put out fires all along the front line. I wonder if the brilliant minds in Ukraine have considered that if they go all in, and it fails, it's all over. Cue the fat lady.
I don't know much about military ground combat but I would think a spring offensive by the AFU would be the equivalent of the battle of the bulge and what was it the amerikan general said to the German general when asked if he surrendered...Nuts! I do know a bit about aircraft and the US drone is basically a sailplane with an engine and high aspect wings and spy Gear and or weapons. I won't bother to look up the spec's but it would be slow and stable and Russian fighter fast and dynamically unstable and easily able to upset the drone with wake turbulence. The fuel dump if it happened would be like a dog marking its territory with urine. You really can't believe videos any more. Now I have been past the the US naval base at Norfolk in my sailboat on the way south and I doubt the US would tolerate a Russian or Chinese spy drone just outside the ADIZ but of course, they aren't exceptional. Now I know about the Spitfires gently nudging V1s to crash as they were much slower and both moving in formation. Obviously that's not an equivalent for a high speed jet and a glorified sailplane and no Russian pilot in their right mind would contact a solid object in flight without a war being on. Hopefully the Russians get some info from the drone and more than anything I hope this war ends soon and Poland doesn't get us into WWII. For all practical purposes the Ukraine is already destroyed with half the population gone and they won't be coming back.
The US tolerated North Vietnamese and Chinese planes based in China taking off and shooting down US bombers over North Vietnam. There was a struggle. The Navy and the Air Force wanted to go in to China and take out the air bases. The State Department and the Army (along with the White House) thought that was a fraught option and opposed it. At that time, the voices of moderation prevailed because by that time both the USSR and China had nuclear weapons. Given this precedent, would Russia forgo attacking NATO bases in Poland if Ukrainian and NATO planes took off from those bases and shot down Russian planes and provided close tactical air support to Ukrainian troops?
Medvedev specifically addressed this a few weeks back when he said:
""If we imagine that NATO aircraft delivered in the future will be serviced by their military on the territory of some overgrown Poland (the only possibility, taking into account the deplorable state of the defense industry in Malorossia), this will be a direct entry of the Atlanticists into the war against Russia with all the ensuing consequences.
"All persons making decisions on the supply (repair) of such equipment or weapons, along with foreign mercenaries and military instructors, will become legitimate military targets," he added."
It could just be bluster, but just reporting what he said.
What does "the territory of some overgrown Poland" mean? And WTF is "Malorossia"?
Too big for their britches?
I think it's a slight auto-translate infelicity but basically means Poland. As for Malorussia that's the true name of Ukraine which is what it was referred to hundreds of years ago since it was never a real country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Russia
It would be a terrible thing if Wild Weasel Hampton got shot down. Some people just can't let go and live a happy life.
Don't kid yourself.
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
Brilliant move from the US trying to show the Russians they better not kill their intelligence officers coordinating the Ukrainian military inside Ukraine by sending a 36 million dollar drone with highly sensitive and advanced surveillance equipment to get brought down just off the coast of Crimea so the Russians can recover it and analyze the wreckage. That'll show them. If the Russians do it again what are they going to do land a Global Hawk at a Russian airbase? That'll teach them.
While simpleton western troll puppets like Feral Finster ( what a pathetic name tag!!) spew nonsense, the Russians are literally grinding and pulverizing the Ukrainian military across the entire 1,000 KM front, every day. The Russians are also now confident enough to start visibly bitch-slapping the USA military via the 6 Kinzahl missile strike and the Reaper drone takedown. The Russians are destroying large numbers of major artillery pieces, air defense systems, and counter battery radars of the Ukrainian military every day + 400-500KIA's. This is how you pacify a country full of rabid, hateful Nazi's. The Ukrainians and their controllers talk endlessly about this big spring offensive. Ok, bring on your spring offensive. Meanwhile the Russians are advancing rapidly across all of Donbass every day, while keeping 200,000 mobilized reserves in the rear, reading to deliver the crushing blows. Souigu and Putin have big smiles on their faces these days, and know they are in complete control. You can ignore the truth, but you cannot ignore the consequences of the truth. We are witnessing the truth in Ukraine today. The West is reeling and just full of hot air. Ukraine is going to lose 500,000+ KIA's and another 500,000 -750,000 wounded in this conflict, as well as much of their territory. This conflict will become an outright slaughter soon.
You have a fitting name!
Yeah, I normally appreciate FF's comments at Taibbi and Greenwald's SSs, but he/she/they are starting to strike me as a potential NAFO concern troll and here to put words in the mouths of others, propose straw man arguments and otherwise sow doubt in the excellent analysis of Simplicius. That said, even FF could end up being right or at least what happens could end up matching up with his/her/their version of events (past and predicted). I'm not willing to write FF off yet.
DEFINITELY looks like payback for the NATO HQ strike, both stratobomber and the drone, doesn't look like its something NATO is going to forgive in a hurry.
Perhaps they shouldn't assassinate young women?
And while NATO is heavily involved in Ukraine, it's unlikely they can pull an Erdo-coup in Arabia, as they lose their gas-tap.
Blinken and Nuland are such genuises. Were they born in the same pod as Liz Truss?
The irony is, Putin had applied to join NATO, and they laughed at him. They expanded NATO up to Russia's borders, and started preparing for biological attacks. Is there anything lower?
Just think if the US/NATO had accepted Russian membership. Rus & China would not be in a de facto alliance, there would be no "Eurasian Tiger Commonwealth", and there would have BEEN a new "European Security Architecture" long already.
Americans beleive their religious hogwash that "God is with them" though (Not realising that actually it was industrialised production of guns against those without), and now they face the ignoble collapse of their disgusting and ignoble "civilisation".
Sad it is that Europa will fall with them, although once the US Occupying bases are gone from Europe, and the Nordstream rebuilt, perhaps with more humility and much less arrogance, we Europeans will be allowed to join the Eurasian Community as well.
Much will depend upon the direction of the short-term future, how the current Banking Crises will be resolved, and how many WMDs the US deploys - and which ones. And where.
May you live in boring times.
Sure that would be great, and due to growing up without a television I do not suffer from boredom. Alas, the more “interesting” things get the less I like it although I suppose the upside is that I get to olive through a real life version of a Neal Stephenson William Gibson Bruce Sterling novel, so there’s that.
Sorry...get to LIVE not Olive....not sure how that got in there.
Although Olive Oil might be just the thing!
They decided to arrest VVP today...looks like major desperation( p.r only no effect)..or maybe 'payback' for hypersonic attack on nato bunker, which seems more and more real by the day and their escalations-provocations.
They are very anxious before XI arrival in Moscow(he will stay three days, very unusual).
Yep it seems to me timed specifically for the meeting with Xi to subtly set the tone and imply that Xi is meeting with a criminal as a way to nudge him I suppose
The poll... I think there is a third option. Russia could be telling the US the jig is up, that if US wants a war, Russia is ready and now better than later or forever. If the US were serious, that B-52 would have been armed. Next time the B-52 might well be going down. I wonder if the Russians will let the US try that particular provocation again. I can hear the phone call between Austin and Shoigu...
"Russia is ready and now better than later or forever"
And that is the big decision, now or later. While trying to avoid WWIII is commendable is it realistic when faced with a crazed, implacable, morally corrupt enemy that wants war?
If a fight is unavoidable get in the first punch, and make it a knockout blow the enemy will not recover from.
They don't need to. They can keep this pace and exhaust the US's will to fight. 70% are obese in the US. They don't have the military capable manpower to fight Russia. The US public has already had enough war after Iraq and Afghanistan, and those weren't tough fights.
Correct. This is the basic reality in the USA. Recruitment is down, 20 years of being an occupation force against nations that could not compare militarily has made them weak. SOF's have grown and are about the only effective thing in the arsenal, but that alone will not win wars against a near peer. The MIC keep churning out expensive lemons some of which are so bad they get cancelled while others just bleed the treasury for years. (Zumwalt LCS, cancelled). There is no way the US military is going to walk into Ukraine and fight...
Yea the LCS classes were a joke, shit-canned basically before ever coming properly into service. They are coming off the production line and going straight into the dumpster. The US MIC is basically a ponzy scheme like Amway or Cutco. Except they don't pass around stupid knives or hair care products, they pass around "next generation" weapon systems as tokens to transfer the money.
It kind of reminds me of the Balkans. You see a lot of unfinnished construction sights which were "fully" funded, started construction, and the funding *somehow* ran out halfway through.
They are definitely pulling out some stops re. off-shore surveillance in the Black Sea. They can't do anything if they fly in Romania or Baltic states, but the Black sea is probably most important area where US can gather intelligence of Crimea and eastern Ukraine/southern Russia.
If they can push those drones out from the 60 miles to 130 miles or 200 miles, maybe even that could help a lot in taking away these reconnaissance platform abilities.
Tell it, like it is. Glory to Russia, GodSpeed💙🇷🇺❤️