First thing’s first, some important updates on the ‘drone incident’. The US has now released their version of the footage, which can be seen here: VIDEO 1. They appear to still be tenuously clinging to the claim that the plane ‘struck the drone’s propeller’, yet that is not evident in the video at all. Much more likely the plane merely bucked the drone from sheer turbulence and jet-wash, causing it to flip over—but I’m not discounting that the prop was clipped. It
When Bakhmut falls the Russians need to reinforce the breakthrough to drive the Ukrainians back more rapidly so that they don't have a chance to build new lines of defence before the Slavyansk/Kramatorsk line is reached. Also, a drive southwards puts the NY/Totestk agglomeration in danger. Together with the increasing encirclement of Avdiivka, the Ukrainians will have no choice but to give up on any Spring offensive.
Mar 16, 2023·edited Mar 16, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Two things.
1) "Some have pointed to this before and after shot, showing what appears to be like a deformed prop blade after the Russian fuel dump"
That's not a before and after shot. If you watch the released video, there are two damaged prop blades (weirdly enough, both are opposite each other) and two undamaged ones in the same shot. They are rotating quite slowly so there is no "camera effect" to contemplate here, either. One blade is only slightly damaged (bent), while the other one appears to be quite mauled by the impact (whether is was the fuel or the jet scraping it).
2) "They’ve never taken such a trajectory before, AND in darkmode with transponders turned OFF."
How does Rybar (or whoever drew that infographic) know the trajectory of the drone and the location of the incident, when the transponders were turned off?
The AFU ofensive în the South is a pipe dream. Can t be done. They have maybe 50k soldiers, the russians have at least 150k soldiers there. AFU needs a thousand tanks, hundreds of altelery pieces, planes, hundreds of IFVs and a shitload of ammo. Plus the russians have build 3 layers of fortifications there. No way they will attack, they just can t pull it off.
Oh and one more thing, about Bachmut. Maybe it's just me, but after all this time you sort of know when things are not going well for RU currently, just by observing the propaganda on each side. When RU (or Prigozhin's) propaganda suddenly keeps quiet about Bachmut, and the western propaganda is churning out all these articles how the situation there is dire for the AFU, you sort of know what's up... Thing is, if things were going well for RU in Bachmut, it would have been the other way around.
Here's an idea for future accidents with pentagon drones, add a hook or net on the bottom of an old Su27, send them fishing each day. play the ''we're not touching you, we're not touching you game'', just like they do.
Another must-read from Simplicius! I don't know how he does it - he must be five guys with too much time on their hands. :-)
By the way, Simplicius - don't waste your time with "Feral Finster" - he's obviously a "concern troll." Those guys never stop: they make random assertions with zero evidence, and when debunked they ignore the debunking and come back the in the next thread with the same garbage. MoA is infested with these scum.
I personally think most of them are Ukrainian-American Democrats, or Ukrainian-Canadians. The US Democratic Party is infested with these types, people like Alexandra Chalupa, who was the main driver of the meme that the Russians hacked the DNC back in 2016. She was the first to claim being "hacked by Russians" and was instrumental in working with the Ukrainian Embassy and was likely in contact with Ukrainian hackers.
The proper rule in dealing with "concern trolls" is like any other troll: ignore them completely. Never engage them or you end up going into a rabbit hole and wasting your time arguing with a black hole.
Talk of a spring offensive rages on. But which side will go, Russia or Ukraine? I can see neither side going for the 'big arrow' move, or one side, but not both. Suppose Ukraine does make a big push between Kherson/Zap and, after massive losses on the fortifications, gets 30-40 km in. Then what? The Russians would bring up reinforcements, close in from either side and annihilate them. Ukraine is just desperate and crazy enough to try this. And the Russians will let the Ukies make their move first. Why try a big push when the US satellites are giving coordinates for every exposed Russian grouping. Let the Ukies come to them. Meanwhile, the AFU's resources for their vaunted offensive are being tapped to put out fires all along the front line. I wonder if the brilliant minds in Ukraine have considered that if they go all in, and it fails, it's all over. Cue the fat lady.
I don't know much about military ground combat but I would think a spring offensive by the AFU would be the equivalent of the battle of the bulge and what was it the amerikan general said to the German general when asked if he surrendered...Nuts! I do know a bit about aircraft and the US drone is basically a sailplane with an engine and high aspect wings and spy Gear and or weapons. I won't bother to look up the spec's but it would be slow and stable and Russian fighter fast and dynamically unstable and easily able to upset the drone with wake turbulence. The fuel dump if it happened would be like a dog marking its territory with urine. You really can't believe videos any more. Now I have been past the the US naval base at Norfolk in my sailboat on the way south and I doubt the US would tolerate a Russian or Chinese spy drone just outside the ADIZ but of course, they aren't exceptional. Now I know about the Spitfires gently nudging V1s to crash as they were much slower and both moving in formation. Obviously that's not an equivalent for a high speed jet and a glorified sailplane and no Russian pilot in their right mind would contact a solid object in flight without a war being on. Hopefully the Russians get some info from the drone and more than anything I hope this war ends soon and Poland doesn't get us into WWII. For all practical purposes the Ukraine is already destroyed with half the population gone and they won't be coming back.
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
Brilliant move from the US trying to show the Russians they better not kill their intelligence officers coordinating the Ukrainian military inside Ukraine by sending a 36 million dollar drone with highly sensitive and advanced surveillance equipment to get brought down just off the coast of Crimea so the Russians can recover it and analyze the wreckage. That'll show them. If the Russians do it again what are they going to do land a Global Hawk at a Russian airbase? That'll teach them.
While simpleton western troll puppets like Feral Finster ( what a pathetic name tag!!) spew nonsense, the Russians are literally grinding and pulverizing the Ukrainian military across the entire 1,000 KM front, every day. The Russians are also now confident enough to start visibly bitch-slapping the USA military via the 6 Kinzahl missile strike and the Reaper drone takedown. The Russians are destroying large numbers of major artillery pieces, air defense systems, and counter battery radars of the Ukrainian military every day + 400-500KIA's. This is how you pacify a country full of rabid, hateful Nazi's. The Ukrainians and their controllers talk endlessly about this big spring offensive. Ok, bring on your spring offensive. Meanwhile the Russians are advancing rapidly across all of Donbass every day, while keeping 200,000 mobilized reserves in the rear, reading to deliver the crushing blows. Souigu and Putin have big smiles on their faces these days, and know they are in complete control. You can ignore the truth, but you cannot ignore the consequences of the truth. We are witnessing the truth in Ukraine today. The West is reeling and just full of hot air. Ukraine is going to lose 500,000+ KIA's and another 500,000 -750,000 wounded in this conflict, as well as much of their territory. This conflict will become an outright slaughter soon.
DEFINITELY looks like payback for the NATO HQ strike, both stratobomber and the drone, doesn't look like its something NATO is going to forgive in a hurry.
Perhaps they shouldn't assassinate young women?
And while NATO is heavily involved in Ukraine, it's unlikely they can pull an Erdo-coup in Arabia, as they lose their gas-tap.
Blinken and Nuland are such genuises. Were they born in the same pod as Liz Truss?
The irony is, Putin had applied to join NATO, and they laughed at him. They expanded NATO up to Russia's borders, and started preparing for biological attacks. Is there anything lower?
Just think if the US/NATO had accepted Russian membership. Rus & China would not be in a de facto alliance, there would be no "Eurasian Tiger Commonwealth", and there would have BEEN a new "European Security Architecture" long already.
Americans beleive their religious hogwash that "God is with them" though (Not realising that actually it was industrialised production of guns against those without), and now they face the ignoble collapse of their disgusting and ignoble "civilisation".
Sad it is that Europa will fall with them, although once the US Occupying bases are gone from Europe, and the Nordstream rebuilt, perhaps with more humility and much less arrogance, we Europeans will be allowed to join the Eurasian Community as well.
Much will depend upon the direction of the short-term future, how the current Banking Crises will be resolved, and how many WMDs the US deploys - and which ones. And where.
The poll... I think there is a third option. Russia could be telling the US the jig is up, that if US wants a war, Russia is ready and now better than later or forever. If the US were serious, that B-52 would have been armed. Next time the B-52 might well be going down. I wonder if the Russians will let the US try that particular provocation again. I can hear the phone call between Austin and Shoigu...
Seems that the "major war" predicted for a month ago hasn't happened. Russia continues to dither.
When Bakhmut falls the Russians need to reinforce the breakthrough to drive the Ukrainians back more rapidly so that they don't have a chance to build new lines of defence before the Slavyansk/Kramatorsk line is reached. Also, a drive southwards puts the NY/Totestk agglomeration in danger. Together with the increasing encirclement of Avdiivka, the Ukrainians will have no choice but to give up on any Spring offensive.
Two things.
1) "Some have pointed to this before and after shot, showing what appears to be like a deformed prop blade after the Russian fuel dump"
That's not a before and after shot. If you watch the released video, there are two damaged prop blades (weirdly enough, both are opposite each other) and two undamaged ones in the same shot. They are rotating quite slowly so there is no "camera effect" to contemplate here, either. One blade is only slightly damaged (bent), while the other one appears to be quite mauled by the impact (whether is was the fuel or the jet scraping it).
2) "They’ve never taken such a trajectory before, AND in darkmode with transponders turned OFF."
How does Rybar (or whoever drew that infographic) know the trajectory of the drone and the location of the incident, when the transponders were turned off?
The AFU ofensive în the South is a pipe dream. Can t be done. They have maybe 50k soldiers, the russians have at least 150k soldiers there. AFU needs a thousand tanks, hundreds of altelery pieces, planes, hundreds of IFVs and a shitload of ammo. Plus the russians have build 3 layers of fortifications there. No way they will attack, they just can t pull it off.
The 'sneak attack' seems to have been telegraphed in a late February demarche.
https://tass.com/politics/1579703
Oh and one more thing, about Bachmut. Maybe it's just me, but after all this time you sort of know when things are not going well for RU currently, just by observing the propaganda on each side. When RU (or Prigozhin's) propaganda suddenly keeps quiet about Bachmut, and the western propaganda is churning out all these articles how the situation there is dire for the AFU, you sort of know what's up... Thing is, if things were going well for RU in Bachmut, it would have been the other way around.
Here's an idea for future accidents with pentagon drones, add a hook or net on the bottom of an old Su27, send them fishing each day. play the ''we're not touching you, we're not touching you game'', just like they do.
Another must-read from Simplicius! I don't know how he does it - he must be five guys with too much time on their hands. :-)
By the way, Simplicius - don't waste your time with "Feral Finster" - he's obviously a "concern troll." Those guys never stop: they make random assertions with zero evidence, and when debunked they ignore the debunking and come back the in the next thread with the same garbage. MoA is infested with these scum.
I personally think most of them are Ukrainian-American Democrats, or Ukrainian-Canadians. The US Democratic Party is infested with these types, people like Alexandra Chalupa, who was the main driver of the meme that the Russians hacked the DNC back in 2016. She was the first to claim being "hacked by Russians" and was instrumental in working with the Ukrainian Embassy and was likely in contact with Ukrainian hackers.
The proper rule in dealing with "concern trolls" is like any other troll: ignore them completely. Never engage them or you end up going into a rabbit hole and wasting your time arguing with a black hole.
Talk of a spring offensive rages on. But which side will go, Russia or Ukraine? I can see neither side going for the 'big arrow' move, or one side, but not both. Suppose Ukraine does make a big push between Kherson/Zap and, after massive losses on the fortifications, gets 30-40 km in. Then what? The Russians would bring up reinforcements, close in from either side and annihilate them. Ukraine is just desperate and crazy enough to try this. And the Russians will let the Ukies make their move first. Why try a big push when the US satellites are giving coordinates for every exposed Russian grouping. Let the Ukies come to them. Meanwhile, the AFU's resources for their vaunted offensive are being tapped to put out fires all along the front line. I wonder if the brilliant minds in Ukraine have considered that if they go all in, and it fails, it's all over. Cue the fat lady.
I don't know much about military ground combat but I would think a spring offensive by the AFU would be the equivalent of the battle of the bulge and what was it the amerikan general said to the German general when asked if he surrendered...Nuts! I do know a bit about aircraft and the US drone is basically a sailplane with an engine and high aspect wings and spy Gear and or weapons. I won't bother to look up the spec's but it would be slow and stable and Russian fighter fast and dynamically unstable and easily able to upset the drone with wake turbulence. The fuel dump if it happened would be like a dog marking its territory with urine. You really can't believe videos any more. Now I have been past the the US naval base at Norfolk in my sailboat on the way south and I doubt the US would tolerate a Russian or Chinese spy drone just outside the ADIZ but of course, they aren't exceptional. Now I know about the Spitfires gently nudging V1s to crash as they were much slower and both moving in formation. Obviously that's not an equivalent for a high speed jet and a glorified sailplane and no Russian pilot in their right mind would contact a solid object in flight without a war being on. Hopefully the Russians get some info from the drone and more than anything I hope this war ends soon and Poland doesn't get us into WWII. For all practical purposes the Ukraine is already destroyed with half the population gone and they won't be coming back.
Don't kid yourself.
"Why, of course, the people don't want war," Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."
"There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."
"Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."
Brilliant move from the US trying to show the Russians they better not kill their intelligence officers coordinating the Ukrainian military inside Ukraine by sending a 36 million dollar drone with highly sensitive and advanced surveillance equipment to get brought down just off the coast of Crimea so the Russians can recover it and analyze the wreckage. That'll show them. If the Russians do it again what are they going to do land a Global Hawk at a Russian airbase? That'll teach them.
While simpleton western troll puppets like Feral Finster ( what a pathetic name tag!!) spew nonsense, the Russians are literally grinding and pulverizing the Ukrainian military across the entire 1,000 KM front, every day. The Russians are also now confident enough to start visibly bitch-slapping the USA military via the 6 Kinzahl missile strike and the Reaper drone takedown. The Russians are destroying large numbers of major artillery pieces, air defense systems, and counter battery radars of the Ukrainian military every day + 400-500KIA's. This is how you pacify a country full of rabid, hateful Nazi's. The Ukrainians and their controllers talk endlessly about this big spring offensive. Ok, bring on your spring offensive. Meanwhile the Russians are advancing rapidly across all of Donbass every day, while keeping 200,000 mobilized reserves in the rear, reading to deliver the crushing blows. Souigu and Putin have big smiles on their faces these days, and know they are in complete control. You can ignore the truth, but you cannot ignore the consequences of the truth. We are witnessing the truth in Ukraine today. The West is reeling and just full of hot air. Ukraine is going to lose 500,000+ KIA's and another 500,000 -750,000 wounded in this conflict, as well as much of their territory. This conflict will become an outright slaughter soon.
DEFINITELY looks like payback for the NATO HQ strike, both stratobomber and the drone, doesn't look like its something NATO is going to forgive in a hurry.
Perhaps they shouldn't assassinate young women?
And while NATO is heavily involved in Ukraine, it's unlikely they can pull an Erdo-coup in Arabia, as they lose their gas-tap.
Blinken and Nuland are such genuises. Were they born in the same pod as Liz Truss?
The irony is, Putin had applied to join NATO, and they laughed at him. They expanded NATO up to Russia's borders, and started preparing for biological attacks. Is there anything lower?
Just think if the US/NATO had accepted Russian membership. Rus & China would not be in a de facto alliance, there would be no "Eurasian Tiger Commonwealth", and there would have BEEN a new "European Security Architecture" long already.
Americans beleive their religious hogwash that "God is with them" though (Not realising that actually it was industrialised production of guns against those without), and now they face the ignoble collapse of their disgusting and ignoble "civilisation".
Sad it is that Europa will fall with them, although once the US Occupying bases are gone from Europe, and the Nordstream rebuilt, perhaps with more humility and much less arrogance, we Europeans will be allowed to join the Eurasian Community as well.
Much will depend upon the direction of the short-term future, how the current Banking Crises will be resolved, and how many WMDs the US deploys - and which ones. And where.
May you live in boring times.
The poll... I think there is a third option. Russia could be telling the US the jig is up, that if US wants a war, Russia is ready and now better than later or forever. If the US were serious, that B-52 would have been armed. Next time the B-52 might well be going down. I wonder if the Russians will let the US try that particular provocation again. I can hear the phone call between Austin and Shoigu...
Tell it, like it is. Glory to Russia, GodSpeed💙🇷🇺❤️