SITREP 2/27/24: Desperate Globalists Float Boots on Ground to Save Ukraine
It’s quite remarkable how virtually every single item we wrote about in the last report has either come to pass or is slowly being proven accurate. The stampede of the Russian forces continues, with more territory falling today, which serves as the catalyst for some of the ongoing panicked escalations the report will focus on.
But first, let’s note those advances:
After capturing Lastochkino yesterday, Russian forces have continued to Tonenke, reportedly capturing or making it a gray zone as of this writing—confirmed by AFU sources:
And they have now begun the assault on Orlovka, which is the main stronghold of the region:
With the latest reports claiming AFU is already fleeing out the west end of Orlovka, as Russian forces advance through the center:
The advances are coming surprisingly fast, such that Ukrainian commentators are falling over themselves to explain what’s going on. Infamous Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov gives his take, which is one of the threads that ties perfectly together with the last report. Recall the updates I’ve pushed about the corruption and embezzlement which has stilted Ukraine’s ability to build second echelon lines on almost every front. He addresses this directly:
The Russian Army continues to move forward, since no serious defense line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been constructed west of Avdievka - Butusov
“There are no words. The gap: here in Kiev the Supreme Commander-in-Chief says one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening. I want to say: beyond Avdeevka no field lines of fortifications have been built to this day. I saw our soldiers in holes in the middle of a field being attacked by Russian drones,” said Ukrainian military propagandist Butusov. No conclusions are drawn from previous failures.
This was corroborated by a new video showing Ukrainian troops attempting to fasten an ad hoc barb wire fence not far from the frontline, and getting liquidated by Russian FPV drones:
Things are getting so bad Ukraine continues to bring the Abrams into action in attempt to slow the Russian advance down. Unfortunately this time the fabled white whale of tanks was destroyed by Russian forces, marking the first fully confirmed Abrams kill of the conflict.
Before:
After:
Symbolically, it happened the same day a captured Bradley arrived by train in Moscow:
Officials are now getting worried. The next ‘thread’ which neatly follows the last report is the looming inevitability of Kharkov and/or the northern region falling.
What was wild conjecture just weeks ago is now being voiced openly by members of the Ukrainian Rada, like Oleksandra Ustinova here:
She frankly states that after Avdeevka, Kupyansk may fall—and Kharkov soon after. Recent reports have stated that Sinkovka area, near Kupyansk, is getting ‘critical’ for Ukraine. Not to mention unconfirmed reports that Russia has been placing new Iskander systems all along the border:
Apparatchiks on both sides of the ocean continue to voice this new urgency:
Listen at 0:30 where Schumer intimates “if we wait two or three months we will lose the war.”
In a new interview, Zelensky coyly confesses Ukraine will lose “a lot of people and territories” if the aid is not delivered asap:
To make matters worse, an ex-Colonel of the SBU continues another one of our ongoing threads from my previous report about Russia’s death by a thousand cuts tactic and how it may soon result in Ukraine’s collapse. Read what he says about the many-vectored attack—specifically about the rapidfire rotation of units that’s not giving Ukraine a chance to reinforce the constantly shifting axes of attack:
Ex-Colonel of the SBU predicts a new collapse of the front:
The Russian army is attacking on several sectors of the front, probing for the weak points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said retired SBU Colonel Oleg Starikov.
“The front is standing. What did the enemy start doing? He began to concentrate his groups in six directions - Kupyansk, Seversk, Liman, Bakhmut, Ugledar, Avdeevka and Orekhovskoye, Tokmak direction. And these groups have grown from tactical to operational. Operational - this is the army level of 50-70 thousand. They are pursuing a “swing” strategy - they will hit there, move away, hit there, don’t approach. Some of our commentators are starting to say that “meat assaults, we killed everyone, there is no one, and they keep climbing and climbing.” Please don't listen - this is more related to panic. This is an underestimation of the enemy, it will come back to bite us, by the way, it’s already coming out ,” said the colonel.
He noted that the Russians are constantly rotating, training fresh forces, while the Ukrainian units are divided into those who know how to fight, but are mortally tired, and untrained newcomers. Both are potential sources of large losses.
“As a result, they will continue to press. Wait until we encounter certain problems in the tactical theater of military operations, which turn into operational-tactical ones. Then, operationally, the front collapsed. This is not me saying, but the military history of the First World War,” the Ukrainian expert worries.
The above only further confirms that everything we’ve been writing here about Russia’s strategy has been accurate, which further gives me confidence about much of the other projections for the future.
The dwindling conditions were again highlighted by a new Telegraph article that continues to paint a ghastly picture:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot fight in the Avdiivka direction due to a lack of ammunition, soldiers complained to The Telegraph.
“We have lost our fighting spirit. We simply do not have the means to fight. If this continues for a few more years, it will be a disaster: either we will run out of people, or everyone will simply leave the country,” one of them said.
He added that now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to leave advantageous positions and decide “which village to give to the Russians next.” Earlier, the Financial Times wrote that the EU is unlikely to be able to send the promised 1 million shells to Ukraine.
It’s gotten to the point the CIA director was again dispatched to Kiev to stop things from unraveling:
CIA Director William Burns secretly visited Ukraine last Thursday, February 22 - New York Times According to the newspaper, this is Burns' tenth visit to Ukraine in two years. The purpose of the visit is to “calm down Ukrainian leaders” who fear that American intelligence services, due to the blocking of US aid, will become less active in helping Kyiv “fight Russia”
And outlooks continue to get bleaker:
Western intelligence agencies report that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will exhaust their ammunition reserves by June, taking into account what Ukraine will receive in the coming weeks. Spiegel writes about secret negotiations between Germany and India on the purchase of shells through intermediaries. New Delhi has more than 100 thousand free shells. Negotiations are being held in secret (no longer), so that the partnership with Russia does not fall apart.
In Germany, they note that they have a shortage of shells, but a lot of money. 155-mm shells are also being sought in Arab countries. By the end of March, Germany will transfer 170 thousand shells to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What’s interesting is we’ve seen the repeated projections for two months or so being the time period when things could unravel. This happens to roughly coincide with when Zelensky’s presidential mandate runs out, and questions of his legitimacy will begin rising.
But now that things are looking so bleak, there is panic behind the scenes as factions are already forming to begin using this question of legitimacy as a springboard:
The vacuum of legitimacy is the main problem for Ukraine in the future, which will become clear on the weakening of international relations with our strange.
Zelensky’s political opponents are increasingly raising the topic of completing the president’s five-year cadence, writes The head.
In particular, the ex-speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, People’s deputy Dmitry Razumkov said that the powers of the current president of our country, Vladimir Zelensky, end in the spring of 2024, after which his powers are transferred to the speaker of the parliament.
"The Constitution clearly states what should happen: there is a chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, he acts as president before a new president is elected and he assumes his rights," — explained the nardep.
According to Razumkov, elections in Ukraine can be held after the end of the military conflict: "Everything is standard, everything is democratic. I understand that neither Zelensky nor his office likes this, but the law is the law". Also, the ex-speaker of Rada added that he would like the situation in Ukraine to change and there were more "adequate people in the offices where decisions are made".
The fact that Zelensky’s legitimacy after May 21 — was also called into question by ex-nardep, Doctor of Law Valery Karpuntsov.
"The norm of the Constitution states that there is no ban on the election of the president during a state of emergency or martial law. And if we look at the parliament, then such a ban is in the Constitution. Moreover, the Constitution clearly indicates how the president’s powers are transferred to another person in case of some situations that are not standard (rejection, death, voluntary retirement or for health reasons). In this case, the powers in a “circumcised” form are transferred to the chairman of the parliament", — said Karpuntsov.
"If the president decides to transfer powers, not to resign voluntarily, then in this case nothing passes on to the chairman of the Rada. And we have a clean criminal situation when the authorities are usurped and this is already qualified under the criminal code",— he added.
It is not surprising that against the background of such statements in the political circles of Ukraine, rumors have begun about preparations for the appointment of the head of the Office of President Andrei Ermak as the country's prime minister. As the rumor fabula says, Zelensky has matured the plan to put the most reliable person and key member of his team (i.e., Ermak) on the post of prime minister, to exclude the possibility of using the position of the head of government to undermine the power of the president through the topic of "illegitimacy".
The situation for the Office of the President is aggravated by the fact that in Ukraine Zelensky’s dissatisfaction with political elites and ordinary citizens is growing. The president cannot forgive corruption, failures at the front, and now inhuman, anti-people mobilization. At the same time, Zelensky himself and he himself dismissed the rating by resigning the head of the Armed Forces of Zaluzhny, popular in the country and in the West, appointing in his place a virtually obedient puppet of Syrsky (and this case, political opponents of Z can also successfully "download" in the spring of 2024).
And in light of this—what is the natural thing for them to do? Why, blame Russia of course! This is where things are headed:
“Maidan-3”: Russia is preparing a special operation to question Zelensky’s legitimacy after May 20, when his term ends
▪️The propaganda statement is published by the Intelligence Committee under the President of Ukraine. The campaign will reach its climax allegedly in March-May 2024, they plan to spread panic, quarrel Kyiv with its allies, disrupt arms deliveries and mobilization.
▪️According to the plan, in the first half of June the situation in Ukraine will be able to be shaken and then, taking advantage of this, Kyiv will be inflicted a military defeat in the east, this is the key idea of their operation, Zelensky’s propagandists claim.
▪️ “It is worth noting that the theme of Zelensky’s “illegitimacy” after May 20 is now being pumped most actively by supporters of ex-President Poroshenko; based on the logic of the Intelligence Committee’s statement, they are “Russian agents,” write the Kyiv media.
▪️Ironically, Poroshenko himself, when he was president, also listed his critics as “agents of the Kremlin,” and his political strategists in 2016 even announced the “Shatun” plan allegedly developed in Moscow to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.
RVvoenkor
One more update in this regard:
The Office of the Ukrainian President has prepared the text of an appeal to the Constitutional Court (CC) of Ukraine regarding the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky’s tenure as head of state after the expiration of his powers on May 20, the local publication “Mirror of the Week” reports, citing sources in the Zelensky administration.
It is noted that they want to pose several questions to the judges. In particular, despite the fact that according to the constitution, voting cannot be organized during martial law, the office plans to clarify whether the basic law allows for presidential elections to be held under these conditions.
The second question concerns the legitimacy of the powers of the president after the expiration of his five-year term in office. The publication writes that, according to the plan of the leadership of the presidential office, deputies from the pro-presidential Servant of the People party will make an appeal to the Constitutional Court. But the appeal has not yet been transmitted to parliamentarians.
As you can see, a mad scramble is taking place to secure Zelensky’s spot after May 20th, with the ground already being seeded about how any question of Zelensky’s legitimacy is the work of Russian security services—a natural and predictable step to dissuade and perhaps eventually jail opponents who will dare challenge him when the date comes.
So finally—we get to the culmination of all this. Things are looking bleaker than ever, with Ukraine seemingly headed for potential collapse sometime in the next three or so months. The frontline situation is set to potentially turn catastrophic in that period, as critical ammo is being projected to deplete right at the time that Zelensky’s legal mandate to rule comes to an end. One can clearly see how this can become a recipe for another coup or collapse via infighting.
I should mention here that it’s also been revealed that Europe is going to deliver even less ammo than they had ‘revised’ their promise to. You’ll recall it was supposed to have been 1M total shells, which got changed to around 500k. Now it’s being said that only 300k will have been delivered when all is said and done—a fact I pretty much predicted as I was skeptical of Josep Borrell and co.’s boastful promises.
Not only will the EU miss its target to give Ukraine a million artillery shells by March, it will likely also miss a revised target of 520,000, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has said.
Speaking at a press conference in Kiev on Monday, Zelensky said that “out of the million shells that the European Union promised us, not 50% came, but 30%, unfortunately.”
So: with things unraveling, what is left to be done? It seems the most radical of hawks wanted to float a trial balloon of WWIII in order to frighten Russia into some sort of concessions.
First, the genie was let out of the bottle by Slovakia PM Robert Fico, who had just attended the meeting of European heads in Paris:
It sounded like a joke at first, until Macron confirmed it:
It was further confirmed by Polish president Andrzej Duda, who said a concensus was not reached on the topic:
But before anyone is taken with flights of panic, it should be stated that virtually every other NATO country has already issued statements that no troops would be sent to Ukraine. This includes Spain, Italy, Greece, Finland, Germany, and now even the U.S.
Furthermore, recall that this isn’t a new idea. I’ve written in my earliest articles more than a year ago about how Poland was openly petitioning to send NATO troops into Ukraine literally from the first weeks of the war.
Thus in some ways this is nothing new. However, it does signal that the West is truly running out of ideas and are beginning to float some of the most extreme ones to see what will stick. And though this one was rejected offhand, it nevertheless shows that such almost unthinkable things are seriously being discussed by the top European leaders behind closed doors.
Furthermore, some of the refutations are vague enough to suggest this topic is not totally off the table. For instance, in response to the firestorm Rishi Sunak’s office said UK “had no plans” for “large-scale” deployment of troops in Ukraine:
Not only does “has no plans” sound fairly temporary, but “large-scale” deployment is obviously meant to exclude other types of non-large-scale deployments.
Of course, we all know from the Pentagon leaks that UK, US, and others already have hundreds of spooks and special forces in the country. Recently, Russian Colonel General Rudskoy again confirmed that NATO troops are already in the country under the guise of ‘mercenaries’:
"NATO military personnel, under the guise of mercenaries, participate in hostilities. They control air defense systems, tactical missiles and multiple launch rocket systems, and are part of assault detachments," he said.
But there is likely a faction inside the global deepstate who is militating for a forced entry of NATO into the conflict, one way or another.
The current ongoing vector to watch is the Moldovan issue we wrote about last time.
Remember last time I wrote about how Putin likely sussed out that the hawks were going to try to make a move in this theater in order to offbalance Russia and save Ukraine at the 11th hour? Well, now there’s an interesting update:
Romanian political analyst Hans Hartmann stated that Maia Sandu “gave the go ahead” to resolve the PMR issue by force “weeks ago”:
Political analyst Hans Hartmann from Romania said that Maia Sandu "gave the go-ahead" to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force 3-4 weeks ago.
In a new interview, NATO deputy secretary general Mircea Geoană stated that NATO will support Moldova if Russia tries anything. However, in his opinion, what will be announced at the ‘historic congress’ in Pridnestrovie is not accession into the Russian Federation, but rather some type of new trade deal to bring relations between the two countries closer.
Even if that’s the case, it sounds like the opening entree to the inevitable annexation down the line.
A historic congress of deputies of all levels will be held in Pridnestrovie on February 28. The main task of the meeting is to develop measures to counter the economic blockade organized by Moldova and Ukraine.It is believed that the deputies may also turn to Russia for help.
Another report agrees with this less extreme take:
At the congress of deputies of all levels, which will be held in the unrecognized Transnistria on February 28 and has already made a lot of noise, there are no plans to appeal to Russia with a request to accept the region into its composition, they say in Tiraspol.
The purpose of the upcoming forum is to inform the world about pressure from Chisinau. The Moldovan authorities reject accusations of pressure and blockade. “I give you not 100%, but 200%, that no one will talk about the inclusion of Pridnestrovie into Russia,” a Pridnestrovian parliamentarian who asked for anonymity assured Kommersant.
Two more informed interlocutors of the newspaper in the circles around the government of the unrecognized republic say that no such appeals are planned at the congress.
But the saber-rattling from NATO and affiliates continues apace. Lithuanian ambassador Linas Linkevicius went on to threaten Russia with “neutralizing” Kaliningrad:
Get a load of his punch line, which in essence says: “Russia’s previous accusation which we dismissed as a lie, is actually now the truth—because we’re so desperate we don’t even care about keeping up the charade anymore.”
Adding fuel to the fire was this report yesterday:
Though it’s likely fake, as some later reported, it could very well be a Ukrainian intelligence attempt to stoke the ongoing tensions vis a vis Moldova—anything to embroil Russia in a NATO conflict and save the AFU from its ongoing unraveling. Clearly, it is still a dangerous provocation and game of chicken.
And in general, NATO and its barking chihuahuas continue to agitate and antagonize:
This is why I have been saying from the beginning that Shoigu was extremely wise in his foresight of creating the new military districts and reserve armies of 500k+, precisely to deal with this new NATO threat. Incidentally, just today Putin officially inaugurated those two new districts:
You think it a coincidence?
With things looking the way they are, several people have now opined that a major Russian operation may not be far away:
What makes most sense with this line of reasoning is that Russia may strategically time a larger operation to coincide precisely with the political meltdown coming in May, which we spoke of at the start of this article. Suppose that May comes around and Zelensky is drowning amid a court whose ‘knives are out’ against him. The AFU situation is catastrophic with no aid nor ammo, and suddenly an even larger, perhaps unprecedented, Russian operation begins. What would the optics and fallout of that be? It could very well be the final push that collapses Ukraine’s political system, or even the AFU itself.
One small nugget I read earlier which gives plausibility to the idea was a Russian military-linked account which claimed that they were surprised how fast the AFU collapsed and abandoned Avdeevka, and—critically—that Russian forces gathered for the final push did not even tap 85% of their concentrated reserves.
Translation: it means Russia may have been expecting a far heavier battle and gathered large reserves, for almost none of them to have been used. This lends credence to the idea that such fresh reserves will be increasingly available for an even larger future operation that could be the straw that break’s the camel’s back. Recall the earlier words of ex-SBU colonel Starikov who spoke of Russia’s highly agile reserve rotations.
Legitimate channel, which has proven fairly accurate with their various sources and ‘rumors’ over the course of the SMO, even says that Russia is planning an Odessa operation for later this year:
I’m stumped as to how that can be possible as I see no way an amphibious/air-assault operation can be carried out, and the only way Odessa will be taken is from the north, after coming down from Kiev—but we’ll see how things develop. After all, in WWII Russian forces stormed and took the right bank of the Dnieper, but that was before ubiquitous ISR.
As a small measure of temperance to the above seemingly sensational reports of total overwhelming victory, we must occasionally remind ourselves that Ukraine may very well be playing up some of their weaknesses to cajole NATO into giving aid. Russian soldiers in the Avdeevka direction today stated there is “no shell hunger whatsoever” from the Ukrainian side on their axis, and Russian troops continue losing a fairly large amount of equipment whenever they conduct large scale assaults.
For instance, yesterday a video was published reportedly showing a bunch of un-mothballed tanks stationed in Crimea to reportedly be sent to the front:
The problem is, there were not only T-55s, but even reportedly T-44s. I can’t quite make them out to confirm it, so maybe a better tank expert can verify. I assume the ones with the extra-long barrel may be the alleged T-44.
Likewise, if it’s true that more Russian A-50s were shot down—for which there is still zero evidence—then some critical battlefield situational awareness assets are being attritioned which will not turn the tide of the war, but certainly means things aren’t as peachy as they look right now, and could forestall Russia’s victory by making things more difficult and drawn out.
Likewise, Russia is hardly closer to solving the FPV problem, though every day new solutions are appearing—though unfortunately, the vast majority of them are cheap Chinese electronics from Alibaba that are of highly inconsistent effectiveness. Even Russian Kamaz trucks are now appearing with anti-FPV jammers:
And new platforms like this one continue to be revealed, but of course, they’re a long ways away from actually reaching the frontline:
The point is that, there’s still argument to be made that a long hard road remains before victory can be touted from the rooftops.
However, just as I said there’s a decent chance that Ukraine is concealing its strength, there’s a potentially even greater chance that Ukraine is actually closely guarding a far more disastrous weakness. There are certain figures we simply don’t have good beads on, but with the types of losses Ukraine incurs daily, there is a chance they are already at a critical shortage of armor, amongst other things. At most, they can only have a few hundred tanks remaining, but the question is: is it closer to a critical ~200 or less, which would mean the AFU is almost finished, or more along the lines of 500+? If it’s the former, and there is a proportionally similar catastrophic shortage of artillery, AD, and light armor, then despite Russia’s own struggles, Ukraine may very well be on its literal last leg.
A few last items:
A new segment on Russia’s version of the HIMARS, the Tornado-S guided GMLRS rocket. Watch the last part in particular, about its drone swarm capability:
Next:
Also, another interesting segment from the same team on Russia’s artillery barrel production at the Motovilikha plant:
One expert notes that Russian barrel production is set to triple as several dual-use facilities go from producing civilian products to barrels, just like in WWII:
Patricia goes on to state that neither the U.S. nor Ukraine currently produce any new barrels themselves. And by the way, for those who may remark on the Russian factory using an old Austrian GFM forging machine for the barrels, you may recall that U.S.’s only artillery factory—the Watervliet Arsenal in Upstate NY—uses literally the same exact GFM machine.
Left is Russia, right is US:
Lastly:
Budanov made a new “promise” to bring down the Kerch Bridge in 2024, ominously warning Russian civilians to not drive on it:
Of course, the fact that this ‘threat’ was premised on the laughable assertion that he already fulfilled his earlier 2023 promise of invading Crimea because a couple troops snuck onto the shore in a boat at night, then quickly fled, makes it difficult to take seriously.
However, most notable is that a new set of photos and videos have appeared online showing the vast construction project Russia has now been carrying out in full to extend the railway lines all over the landbridge corridor from Rostov-Mariupol-Crimea:
Thus, as multiple landbridge redundancies are built, Ukraine’s dream of severing Crimea grows fainter and fainter each day.
Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: Tip Jar
Project Ukraine, when it inevitably finally implodes... will be Studied for Decades to come. In particular, the manner in which it was 'brought to its knees' via multiple, simultaneous Axes of Attack (Symmetric & Asymmetric) will be opined upon exhaustively. Such is the nature of this Conflict, & the Historic Manner in which events are unfolding (with speed). Many Thanks Good Sir for Sharing with Us, your Dear Readers, all the relevant 'play by play' as it transpires!
Done it!!! First in the comments! My life ,now ,is complete.