SITREP 2/26 - Urgent Update
I had been slowing working on a much longer piece which was set to release today. But I must interrupt it briefly for an urgent, quicker update.
Today it has been confirmed by reputable sources that the AFU has attacked Belarusian soil—specifically a drone attack on a Russian early warning A-50U Beriev plane parked in Machulishchi airbase, just outside of Minsk. The UA side claims the A-50U was damaged, while there is no confirmation from the Russian side.
The attack was first reported by the reputable Semyon Pegov of ‘Wargonzo’ fame.
The attack on the military airfield near Minsk is confirmed. The target of the strike was likely a Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft. Whether this board was hit, and how seriously, is still unknown. Ukrainian resources report "medium damage".
However, other sources are reporting more ‘serious’ damage:
The BYPOL initiative reports that a Russian military A-50 AEW&C aircraft was blown up at Machulishchy military airfield this morning. According to BYPOL, the front and center parts of the aircraft, avionics and radar antenna were damaged.
“The damage is serious, the aircraft is definitely not flying anywhere anymore. The accident occurred while snowplows were working near the aircraft. [...] Belarusian partisans are consistent in expelling fascists from their land,” BYPOL writes.
Not sure what that last bit is supposed to mean, exactly, but seems to imply that the attack was carried out by ‘Belarusian partisans’, which would mean a locally flown kamikaze drone flown from somewhere nearby the airfield. These are the most dangerous and unstoppable, because they don’t have to fly for dozens/hundreds of miles from UA territory, passing air defense that would shoot them down. You can park your car outside the perimeter of an airfield, fly up the drone really quickly towards the plane, and it’ll only be seconds to hit it—no base-installed air defense could react fast enough to that. Particularly if it’s well planned, and you study the exact coordinates of everything before hand so that as soon as you loft the drone, the time-to-kill is mere seconds and you’re not just ‘wandering around’ looking for the target. This is how the attacks on the Crimean airbase and parliament buildings were likely done as well as a host of other ‘sabotage’ attacks throughout Russia.
But on top of that—strangely—there was a reported clash in the Volyn region between AFU and Belarusian border guards, reportedly resulting in the death of 1 AFU soldier. Reported by the reputable channel @voenkorkotenok:
Also, the Kyiv media announce the death of a militant of the "Volyn Territorial Defense" on the border with Belarus. The incident took place yesterday morning, but it became known about it only today. @voenkorKotenok
Volyn Terodefense militant killed in skirmish on Ukrainian-Belarusian border According to Ukrainian media, the collision itself took place yesterday at 5 am, but there is no official reaction to this yet.
Recall what Lukashenko had said many times in recent months:
Though of course, hiding behind the ‘plausible deniability’ veil of ‘Belarusian partisans’ could allow Kiev to escape direct responsibility for this attack—only time well tell.
However, needless to say, this has the stink of deliberate provocation and escalation. Ukraine is not suicidal enough to want Belarus to open up a gigantic new front against them where the AFU would be forced to tie down tens of thousands of new troops. Particularly, not at the ‘trade off’ of damaging ONE Russian plane at some remote airport. Maybe if it was something that had actual consequence and was worth the invasion.
No, the only conceivable reason the AFU would strong-arm Belarus into entering the conflict is if it was part of a well-detailed and coordinated Western intel operation (read: trap) meant to vastly escalate the conflict. The most likely vector of escalation would be to force the entry of Belarusian forces into Ukraine to use that as raison d'être to bring Polish and/or NATO troops into the country to, in some way, assist Ukraine.
Furthermore, the very odd ‘border skirmish’ reported in the Volyn province, which appears wholly unconnected to the drone strike near Minsk 300km away is very puzzling.
Also, in adjacent news, I wanted to update something regarding PMR / Transnistria. Last we spoke, I had opined that Russia and the PMR garrison would be powerless to stop a Ukrainian assault. However, I’ve recently learned the true size of the total forces there is much larger than previously thought. Not only is the Russian contingent somewhere in the 1500-3000 region, but the military and police force of PMR itself numbers in the range of 12-15k. So combined together they are approaching 20k in number, which is a size large enough to at least hold off or stymy an AFU attack. With that said, the reported ‘rumors’ of the size of AFU’s intended formations for the assault were in the 25-35k range. But at least this would give them pause.
A few other interesting developments:
A rumor was spreading that Wagner fighters destroyed their first Leopard tank. Someone asked Prigozhin the question directly and he replied they have not yet fought the Leopards but that there is ‘intelligence’ that the first Leopards have arrived in Chasov Yar. This is the bordering settlement directly west of Bakhmut, and where the AFU is currently building their strongest fortifications and new lines of defenses after Bakhmut falls (which will be very soon). So, if true, this would be an interesting development as we may soon see some Leopard action (and subsequent destruction?).
Recall—Wladimir Klitschko recently claimed he was ‘mobilized’ and that he is now a Leopard tank driver. Will we see Klitschko himself gloriously manning the Leopards against Wagner forces? Or will the Leopards be coddled away from any real action as we outlined here.
But one must recall statements like this from a reputable Russian telegram channel linked to Wagner (Reverse Side Of The Medal):
"All operators, gunners and so on for the "Himars" are foreigners (Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Romanians). Ukrainian troops are engaged only in the protection and maintenance of toys. In some cases, they give you the right to "steer" the car. The same situation will be for the new Leopard tanks, where the crews will be foreign. Ukrainians will be given the right to manage old modifications."
I already reported recently a wealth of evidence that many of the more prized Western systems in Ukraine are in fact operated by their respective countrymen. For instance, a Ukrainian soldier admitted on camera that Polish AH Krabs are manned by Poles themselves. And we know from Austrian Colonel Reisner’s recent statement here, that NATO soldiers will simply switch uniforms and join the AFU (and, of course, have already been doing this since the beginning under covert cover programs).
Journalist: “Who will man all those tanks”
Markus Reisner: “I take off my uniform, sign a contract and go to Ukraine. I’m no longer an Austrian soldier.”
He explains how NATO is sending troops to Ukraine.
-> We all knew that these “volunteers” are not really “volunteers” anyway
Another persistent rumor is that the Chinese military is nearing a sort of Lend Lease of its own to Russia. Not only have there been increasing statements from the CIA that China is about to supply “hundreds of drones” to Russia:
But now a Chinese military blogger has stated the following:
From the largest storage of reserves of the Chinese army in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (not far from the border with Russia), artillery systems began to be reactivated and brought into combat condition, writes military analyst Zhu Shufang.
Among other things, these are PLZ-05 howitzers with a caliber of 152 mm (an analogue of the Russian Msta-S), as well as Chinese AR1A multiple launch rocket systems (an analogue of the Russian Smerch MLRS). It was here that high-ranking Russian military personnel arrived 8 days ago, the author writes.
If this should prove true—some might wonder, why would Russia need vast Chinese military support of this sort? But remember, Russia is openly preparing for something much larger than just Ukraine. The pieces currently in motion feel increasingly like they’re headed toward an eventual ‘Great Power’ clash, in whatever form that may take. So it’s obviously prudent for Russia to begin stockpiling weapons from everywhere it can against a potential clash against the U.S. or various other NATO countries.
The U.S. themselves admitted recently they have 10,000 American troops in Poland as we speak, and that’s presumably not counting the additional ~10,000 that were said to be in Romania months ago (101st Airborne and 2nd Cavalry ‘Dragoons’ fast response force). Russia doesn’t want to be caught ‘with its pants down’ should NATO open up a much larger war, but we’ll see if there’s even any merit to these Chinese rumors. Recall that there were rumors for a long time about Iranian ballistic missiles which never came to fruition.
Lastly, as a quick update to Bakhmut - the situation is getting dire for Ukraine.
There is one final main supply road remaining and even the AFU commander ‘Magyar’ has admitted in a video that it’s under partial fire control by Wagner forces (i.e. already being hit by artillery/ATGM) and some are reporting that ‘an orderly retreat of Ukrainian forces from the city is no longer possible’.
It is reported that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported to Zelensky about the tactical encirclement of Artyomovsk of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the impossibility of evacuating the remaining Ukrainian units.
Furthermore, Wagner forces have also broken through to the center of the city, almost up to the river line, from the eastern quarters, which means that UA forces are also beginning to evacuate the eastern half of the city (the city, like many, is split nearly down the middle by the Bakhmutovka River).
Well-known Russian frontline journalist Evgeniy Poddubny said the following:
Poddubny: "The enemy's losses in the Artemivsk area are about 500 people a day. The Kiev regime, in order to compensate for the losses, often throws into battle those mobilized who have not completed training. As a result of the decisive actions of the PMC "Wagner" fighters, the stranglehold on the future encirclement of the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is being tightened. The regime's garrison is already experiencing supply difficulties. And if the success of the orchestra's assaults develops, the issue of providing reinforcements and ammunition will be key for the enemy."
Meanwhile, General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of UK Joint Forces Command stated:
“Given that the rate of casualties on a really bad day is 200 to 300 killed, you begin to see how many would be needed [for Ukraine] to replenish this[ 1,600-mile front line ].” - General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of UK Joint Forces Command
Even Newsweek has joined in with the grim headline:
And MSM appears in general to be going into overload into increasingly bizarre territory:
“He talked about how, for the past two years, his company has been providing U.S. Special Forces with ibogaine, a dissociative psychedelic derived from an African shrub.”
So they want to be able to ‘disassociate’ Ukrainian soldiers to turn them into mindless zombie puppet-soldiers for NATO? Sounds to me like ‘end-game’ Wehrmacht Pervitin (crystal meth) as their final option to wring that last, pesky drop of blood from Ukraine.
I leave you with this brilliant ad:
(Editor’s note: as new information comes in, I’ll be adding updates here).
Update #1:
According to the most reputable Russian channel with direct links to the Russian airforce:
Translation: he’s saying the A-50 wasn’t hit but there WAS an attempt at sabotage—the ‘flights’ he references means drone attacks. Wargonzo already confirmed that at least two large explosions were heard in the airfield. So, it could be that they didn’t hit the plane and either hit the airfield or the explosions were the work of air defense successfully shooting the drones down. Or it could have hit some other object/plane, just not the A-50. Either way this would constitute an attack on Belarusian soil, but as mentioned earlier if it was done by Belarusian ‘partisans’ then Ukraine has convenient plausible deniability here and the situation gets tricky.
Update #2:
One report claims that the ‘border skirmish’ was also against a Belarusian native who joined the AFU. Well, if he’s officially part of the AFU one can’t claim plausible deniability like in the first case, that would still constitute a Ukrainian attack on Belarus, but we’ll wait for confirmations.
Update #3:
The Ministry of Defense of the #Russian Federation has not yet commented on the situation. Reportedly 6 UAVs were launched from Chernihiv region and #Kyiv region. 4 were shot down on approach, 1 was shot down over the airfield and its wreckage fell on the maintenance equipment.
1 unit was able to drop a warhead on one of the aircraft belonging to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of #Belarus, after which the fire spread to the side of the Ministry of Defense of the #Russian Federation.
information is investigated using satellites images, the data will be available by midnight #Moscow time. After receiving these data, #Lukashenka will contact #Putin, then indirect contact with #Zelensky through an intermediary is possible The conflict is rapidly escalating!
Update #4:
#Belarus report that the explosions near #Minsk provocation will not lead to retaliatory actions and a decision to join a special operation. According to the source, #Lukashenko is consulting with #Moscow and #Beijing.
I would be happy to hear of thousands of captured soldiers rather than casualties in bakhmut.
Most of the men fighting on both sides... could be any of us. The scale of death is very upsetting
I wish for a magic wand to wave and place Zelensky & company along with Biden and his crew of morons into combat kits and send them off to the front lines and let everyone else go home . . . . . . . but not until open season is declared on the former political groups . . . . and can I make additions to the Biden crew of morons? The entire upper management ranks of Wall Street Banks and ALL of the Weapons Corporations.