Being in the position of Russians, yes agreed that could be anyone of us.
But a Ukie? No, only brain dead would be them. Either too thick to resist the propaganda, or too thick to recognise the danger of a rabid government and forced conscription and failing to get out earlier.
Kiev doesn't give a shit about the lives of the soldiers on the front. I reckon they even see mass casualties as a positive because its more likely to draw nato in directly, and for them to get more money and stuff
This is not just one massacre and will end up horrible for the people, much more are planned by the International Bankster Cartel and absolute horrible slavery for the people, after they "prune the Herd"(a favorite word of Henry Kissinger, also said: Once we vaccinate the HERD, the Game is over, etc)), to about 500 Million people. Those will be connected to the Machines, controlled even their Thoughts. The problem is over 90% of people are SHEEPLE,sincerely,Janko
Kiev is in the mindset of Schneerson("the rebbe") read what he wrote about the decimation of the slavs in 1994, for me its still possible all this is a grand play(with chabad as the director) with the outcome to create some type of isreal 2.0 (a Zelensky advisor mentioned that too); which sure implies a relocation of the isrealites(thats where the provocation of the iran might come in handy, a strike one day...).... but sure all this is just a theory, one of many possible, there are alot big forces with interests.
Use your intuition Kati. Mine tells me that it is more than just a theory. I Do hope Mr. Putin is not part of the conspiracy to facilitate the return of the Khazarians to their ancestral land .
We do wonder at the determination the Ukrainian government seems to have to killing or debilitating an enormous number of its male population. And we know that the Ukrainian government is Not Ukrainian in essence.
That last af is brilliant! Hard to believe that there are still men available in Ukraine at this point.
The Belarusian development is nasty. Who knows what can of worms that will open.
My personal opinion, I don’t think NATO will or can attach Russia before Ukraine is levelled. NATO, like most of the West. Has been hollowed out by years of bureaucracy This doesn’t make them weak or without teeth, however
Thank God for Russia, thank God for Wagner, may He be with us all in these dark days.
very good point..tankers are usually supposed to be small, then again if he's the 'driver', often the driver sits in a reclined type position in the front, maybe allowing a taller person, not 100% sure how large the Leopard driving compartment is but he doesn't have to 'stand up' like the ammo loader and hit his head on the ceiling, etc.
I wish for a magic wand to wave and place Zelensky & company along with Biden and his crew of morons into combat kits and send them off to the front lines and let everyone else go home . . . . . . . but not until open season is declared on the former political groups . . . . and can I make additions to the Biden crew of morons? The entire upper management ranks of Wall Street Banks and ALL of the Weapons Corporations.
Just the other day someone in the comments was saying x airfield was hit and blah blah and it was all over the news. And nothing actually happened. The only thing ukies are good at is making crap up.
could be but it seems it's confirmed by high level sources including a channel linked directly to Russian airforce (run by actual pilot). So it seems SOMETHING happened, only question is to what extent and what the reaction will be.
A diversion maybe for a real attack(20-25k UA at 1.5 km of the border) on PMR?It seems that romanian air defense are activated at the border with Moldova.
The Westie boys are peeing their pants with the thought they will have to soon go up against the combined might of not only Russia, but China, Iran and North Korea. Unfortunately for them, the Ukranian cannon fodder is running out.
To make matters even worse, it seems like Iran has hypersonic cruise missiles too!!! That was fast!!!
Actually the Resistance has been coordinating their attack against the vile West for years...we're just all seeing it come to fruition now. I heard a few years ago in fact that Russia and Iran were exchanging military technology secrets that the West has even no clue of. Iran has supposedly 2.200 kms of underground bases!!! This can be read today on The Intel Drop. Link: https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/02/25/iran-establishes-2200-km-of-strategic-underground-cities-irgc/
I estimate that it costs the Russians more than $20,000 per dead or seriously injured Ukrainian soldier.
Recently, before 24/02/22, I spent two years in Ukraine. I believe that if the Russians were to offer a reward of $10,000 to each Ukrainian soldier who surrenders, entire battalions would do so. With $10,000 an ordinary Ukrainian can set himself up and get married and settle down. Those who are already married would happily use the money to look after their kids.
There is a massive failure of imagination on the Russian side.
Hey that's exactly what U.S. did in Iraq. The reason the war went so fast is they paid off all the top generals (and by extension their troops) to surrender or flee, while the only real forces that fought were the more hardened Republican Guards, much fewer in number
Cash is a powerful weapon. The Russians are flush with cash. The Chinese even more so. Ukrainian peasants are desperately poor. Their wages are often stolen by their officers.
After WW1, the British used their air force to bomb rebel tribes in Afghanistan and northern Iraq. Planes were very risky in those days. The pilots had pamphlets that detailed the ransom that would be paid on handing over a captured pilot. The ransom offered decreased for each missing limb etc.
Conversely, I guess it’s what’s we’re (usa) doing right now —sending billions to UKR to keep them fighting, as without some sort of auditing, we have no idea where all the $$ is going. The corruption of UKR cannot be understated.
It is worth trying IMHO. It would certainly wind up the Nazis no end. They would fear that at any moment they could be overwhelmed by the more numerous conscripts.
Its the old 'one against many' situation. One or two soldiers surrendering are very vulnerable, but a whole unit turning their guns on their 'guards' first and then surrendering is a different ballgame. They would just need to avoid incoming from further back.
I think that most readers here are looking at my proposal in a purely functional way. However, war is largely a psychological affair. As Sun Tzu pointed out, it is best to win a war without fighting.
At the moment, from childhood, Ukrainians are told lurid tales about what the Russians do to their captives. Most soldiers on the front line believe that if they were captured, they would be tortured. Doubtless, the Nazi element will reinforce this belief.
By offering a large financial reward to defectors, this belief would disappear. The front line soldiers would be motivated to surrender whenever possible. The Nazis are not always at their backs. Patrols and scouts are sent out regularly. These are free to defect.
Once a few of these people defect, the Russians should put them on Telegram with their faces covered to tell all viewers that they now have this money and what they plan to do with it once the war is over. They would also say that they have been well-treated. There is no need to put them in cages if they need to stick around to collect (and spend) their rewards.
The monetary aspect and savings of the "Paid to surrender program" along with the savings in lives and preventing misery, has occurred to me to apply to the millions of refugees immigrating into Europe and illegal immigrants in the US.
The US per capital costs for these illegals is multiple times higher than what supplies a decent living in their native lands in Mexico and South America. (Likely this is true in Europe as well) Also it greatly behooves those nations to solve their own internal problems. Therefore with some guidance and international pressure to limit fraud, (this would be the major challenge here) it would be vastly more economical and productive to give greatly reduced funding to those regions that need it to stimulate there local economy, or in some cases to help rebuild.
While one can argue that such payments are not a US or European obligation, it is clear that it would be far more economical and less destructive then forced immigration of millions, who often end up on social programs for decades, and are victims of many crimes in their journey. And to an extent US and European policy has certainly helped create the conditions that are cause to forced migrations, like the US actions in Libya, as an example.
What is happening with illegal immigrants to Europe and the USA is a long-standing objective of dividing and weakening the middle and lower classes. It is working brilliantly. The UK has an Indian prime minister. :-)
Here is a Pakistani immigrant complaining that there are too many White people in Scotland.
It appears true, yet just more insanity. The objective hoped for, apparently breaking sovereign nations to create a One World Government, will simply not happen. (Pain, misery, broken economies and wars will happen)
Hopefully they are not trying to create the 500 million global population they have advocated for decades.
This is clearly another asymmetrical Ukrainian terrorist attack on Russia, via Belarus. These events are good for one or two attacks and then they are sealed tight by Russia. Its a provocation designed to trigger Belarus to cross the border, and hereby give NATO an excuse to escalate via Poland. Seriously doubt Belarus and Russia will fall for this trick, but they will respond via other means. This is also a distraction from the imminent fall of Bahkmut. Russia cannot park any serious air force assets anywhere without having an airtight, large perimeter. They seem slow to learn the lesson. Meanwhile, Russia continues to bomb specific regions daily and making good progress across the front.
There's now word that some glidebombs are being dropped or at least various guided bombs, though not sure what kind they're referring to and on which platform (even SM3 rooks don't really have the proper targeting pod to do so, I believe). Maybe 'Drel' bomb as it was seen in a Medvedev tour a few months ago of some missile/bomb factories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PBK-500U_Drel
Macgregor recently talked about +- 700k 'losses' for UA.I suppose he still has good friends in the Pentagon?
As follow: 350 kia+mia, rest being wia (at various levels) + pow (15k).
Trump is attacking ZE now in frontal, calling Nuland and co 'warmongers' who should resign.
That Biden will start WWIII. With him this war would have never happened and it would have saved thousands of lifes...If reelected he will stop the war in 24h..potus 2024 election will be focussed on ukraine, Trump betting on a coming 'ukraine neocons biden adventure' to collapse.
I'm not sure how reliable Belarusian forces are ? I know almost nothing about Belarus ? How reliable is the Army. What are the sentiments of the people ? I'm not sure the Russians in Belarus or Belarusians have any intention of being drawn in by Ukrainian provocations if it is contrary to plans. Belarus main role seems to be to act as a buffer between Nato and Russia. Getting dragged into the conflict directly would seem to undermine that value.
Macgregor or one of those figures once said that the U.S. army considered Belarus to be the single worst-trained force in all of Europe. Globalfirepower doesn't rank them very high: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
In the tank biathlon and int'l army games, they often place roughly near the top 5. Their average over all biathlons I believe is #4 behind Russia, China, Kazakhstan, and in last year's Int'l Army Games they placed pretty well in #3 even above China
Russia: 87
Uzbekistan: 43
Belarus: 42
China: 23
Iran: 16
Kazakhstan: 14
Vietnam: 12
Azerbaijan, Algeria, Syria, Mongolia: 4
Venezuela, Myanmar: 3
Laos: 2
Armenia, Congo, Mali, Zimbagwe, India, Tajikistan: 1
Whether there's any truth to that at all, one thing that is certain is that they are not a large force. The entire armed forces is something around 50k (spread through ALL branches), so the ground forces alone is not even 20k of that....and in a given scenario, they would likely not be able to commit ALL ground forces because need to leave some behind for critical defense. So in short, unless they mobilized heavily, they don't even have more troops than Wagner or LPR.
1. I don t think that Poland(NATO) will intervine în any case. They saw what hell is în Ukraine. How would the oolish people react whem after 2 months 25k polish soldiers come în body bags? Plus NATO doesn t have the ammo to sustain the fight. Plus Russia will have the legal justificative to attack Poland s infrastructure. Warsaw în the dark? Plus what does MATO think they will achieve? What happens if the nukes start flying? Big no no.
2. The attack on Transnistria. No way the ukranians have 25k troops there. They don t have suficient troops în the Harkov region. Plus what is the Point în attacking Transnistria? The ammo depot there is allready mined, if the ukranians come even close to it goes kabooom. Plus Transnistria has a pooulation of half a million, 20k soldiers plus at least 80k adult males who can take up arms. 100k to protect a small country, that is going to be a cluster fuck for the Kiev regime.That small region is well known to be packed full of weapons. It would be imposibile for the ukranians to get even close to Tiraspol.
3. This war will end when the russians will get feed up and launch a big ass avangard warhead without the nuclear payload. At 26mach it has a force of 2MT. It will create a giant hole în the centre of Kiev killing the clovn and all the army staff. That Ukraine will enter în anarchy mode. Then milions of people will Rush to Poland and the West will be în need shit. Than they will agree to stop the carnage.
Poland want ukraine destroyed so it can step in as say "We are going to look after the western parts that used to be poland, because they are our kin and someone has to, ukraine can. Dont worry it will just be for a little while"
If Poland takes western Ukraine the rest of Europe will be furious. Poland received Silesia from Germany after WW2 în exchange for Galitia with went to Ukraine. The germans will want Silesia back. This would give justifications for separists movements in Spain, Belgium, Scotland etc. A big no no. În fact if Poland takes Galicia the russians will be very happy. They will have the legal justificatiin to ask the west to recognize the Donbass as russian territory, the poles will inherit a land full of bat shit crazy Bandera lovers, tge polish population will be 1/5 ukranians, biiiig problems there, we know the ukranians are spoilled brats and they will want seats în the parlament, separate schools, etc. A cluster fuck for the dumb fucks în Warsaw.
It will cause a huge fracture in Nato. At least for one point, it should decrease popular support in western European countries. No one wants to get involved in Polish colonial adventures.
There's been SOME sources that corroborate this in a variety of ways: reports of huge new cemeteries being built in Poland.
As for Transnistria, a new update just hit the channels stating that some officials in Donbass have gotten their hands on an alleged actual order showing the AFU ordering a specific engineering battalion over towards near the PMR border:
"❗️Attention❗️In Kuchurgany, bordering Pridnestrovie, ammunition will be transferred from Kirovograd - order of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The commander of the military unit of the engineer-sapper battalion of the 128th brigade of the armed forces of Ukraine was ordered to send personnel in order to organize the delivery of ammunition along the route of the settlement. Kuchurgan. Despite public statements about the absence of a provocation plan in Transnistria, Ukraine continues to drop forces to their border.
Earlier there were reports about the movement of the AFU grouping near the borders of Transnistria. The Russian Ministry of Defense also indicated that it had recorded a significant accumulation of personnel and military equipment of Ukrainian units near the Ukrainian-Pridnestrovian border, as well as the deployment of artillery in firing positions and an unprecedented increase in flights of unmanned aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the territory of the PMR."
Btw the Transnistria attack I agree would likely not have much to do with the ammo, which I hear that a lot of which is old/expired/rotten from being badly stored, and a lot more of it has been sold off in the 90's by corrupt officials anyway. No, it would be more to encircle and kill/capture a huge portion of Russian troops to use as heavy leverage.
The attack on Transnistria is still an attack on Moldova per see. What happens if it goes wrong? What happens if the ukranians start getting killed on a massive scale there? The russians and local population are on the defensive there, they know the terrain perfect, so we have a perfect scenario for partisan warfare. The optics will be bad, still the MSM can t hide the fact that ukranians have invaded Transnistria. Whatever the case if the ukranians pull this stupidity they will be bogged down and after 2 weeks they will be crawling back. Keep up the good wirk.
You just brought up a good point I had forgotten about. Transnistria is INTERNATIONALLY by way of U.N./U.S. and "rules based order" b.s., considered as part of Moldova proper. So what happens to the big fancy U.N. 'rules based order' when AFU invades a territory that is internationally recognized as Moldovan sovereign territory.......?
I suppose they'll conveniently brush that under the table.
But yes you might be right. Unfortunately I'm not super familiar with the topological/terrain of Transnistria, I'll have to research and get acquainted with it, but there's good chance as you said that AFU could get bogged down. I said elsewhere that the prospect of this invasion looked much worse last year when AFU was threatening to invade with Moldova's help, but this time Moldova itself doesn't seem interested. It would be one thing if Moldovan forces attacked from the west, but AFU attacking alone from the east, I dunno how successful they'd be.
I think the crisis there is more a bluff meant to make Russia 'think twice' about gathering their next phase invasion. If Ukraine puts pressure here, they force Russia to think twice about committing their full forces to a massive invasion in Donbass, because Russia will be thinking about saving some of the forces for other theaters. But it's a double edged sword because if AFU actually invades and gets stuck in a bogged down situation as you said, then Russia could do a mass invasion of Donbass and now AFU will have much less resources/reserves because a large part of their force will be bogged down in some useless offensive in Transnistria.
My guess is Ukraine (either Zelensky or some rogue nazis) is trying to create provocations in Belarus to have an excuse to get Polish troops in West Ukraine. This enables releasingthe Ukraine troops to Donbass or elsewhere to the east, as garrison now replaced with Poles.
VG update TY. On the basis of past Russian performance in Babyface Tsar's fake and Gay liddle War - s'cuse me, "Special Military Operation" (LOL) - Haxo expects Bakhmut to fall.....whenever. And then, after another whenever - again, based on past Russian performance - be suddenly evacuated by the Russians.
no, but I suspect that it will not matter in the larger scheme of things. By not getting this war over and done with in a timely fashion - like 11 months ago - Putin has gotten Russia (and his regime) into a quagmire. Exactly as Uncle Schmuel intended.
Considering the psychological, spiritual, economic, conditions of all involved, I struggle to see other outcomes than Russia capitulating and being reduced to obedience to the same powers the EU obeys to, and China finding itself in the crosshairs of the Empire, or World WarIII happening.
In turn, if WWIII happens, I struggle to see any scenario where a combination, a massive one, of nuclear and biological weapons are not used.
Russia and China are, I think, striving to strike a third, different outcome. They want to avoid being conquered, but also world war. Will it be possible?...
I do not see Russia capitulating in the least. It is, IMV, a great failure for the US - NATO leaders to apparently not understand that, from Russia's perspective, this is a war for their survival. The US and NATO have taken many actions that at a minimum make this perspective understandable.
I say "apparently" because quite frankly I think they do know. And I have no idea what their end game is, as the west has taken many many suicidal actions for the past 14 years in particular. At what point does their incompetence, become competent?...
Self destructing US and European energy supplies, the life blood of every economy, https://anderdaa7.substack.com/#:~:text=(The%20theory%2C%20the%20science%2C%20the%20politics...) orchestrating the immigration of tens of millions of poor uneducated that have almost zero cultural similarities including language, and in many cases are taught to hate the nation they are immigrating to, creating absolute chaos in the ME and calling it the "Arab Spring" and leaving true terrorists with multiple billions of dollars of military hardware, likely creating a global pandemic and a definitely managing a response to that pandemic that breaks global supply lines, costs trillions, suppresses effective cheap prophylactic treatments, enhances tyrannical government power, is cause to millions of excess disability and deaths, and is also cause to reduced global efficiency as, beyond the excess deaths and disability, literally millions of the most productive management from every industry retired earlier than expected due to COVID policy. (BTW, this talent drain is true of our US military, for all the same reasons plus the Obama purge of top military leaders.) Doing all of the above and a far longer list could be noted, and then instigating a war with Russia while you are also willfully destroying your own currency, this is insane. And it is being done by the Ivy league educated that consider themselves to be the elite.
My worry is that if you focus on daily briefs (which could be very interesting) we will miss out on the the more in-depth analysis like we were given in articles like "All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West's ISR Overmatch?".
That article (and others like it) is why I subbed. It was detailed, well-researched, and easy to understand, but certainly not the kind of thing we can get every day.
It elaborated on a single aspect of the war that helps me understand this war more in general and helps me be more knowledgeable about these matters in general.
Thats my two cents. I have been impressed with your content and will continue to read regardless of what you choose.
Thanks for the feedback. That's exactly why I was trying to gauge the rough sentiments of what people are wanting more of, but I definitely will not abandon the longer form ones as I agree that should be more of the bread and butter as well, so in fact I plan to increase them. But making shorter daily Sitreps could allow me to do one of the bigger ones every 2-3 days give or take.
Simplicius The Thinker, having read and enjoyed your analysis pieces, I have confidence in your ability to gauge and focus on the important aspects of this tragic cluster fuck the Capitalist Pigs of the West are conducting; both big picture and detailed events.
If Belarus is forced to enter the SMO does this escalate to formal War?
I think this gives the Hyenas, sorry Polish, an excuse to nip at their mutual Border with Belarus, but at the same time putting troops into Galicia, Ukraine and thereafter gaining back that coveted land. They may even have a swipe at Kaliningrad.
And then there is the question of the Baltics? Will they also nibble away at the Belarus Border? Lithuana combine with the Hyenas and go at Kaliningrad too?
Yeah, Belarus has a lot to consider, their involvement will most likely trigger NATO involvement and we are into WW3 scenarios.
Scary times, unpredictable times, possible the end of times.
I would be happy to hear of thousands of captured soldiers rather than casualties in bakhmut.
Most of the men fighting on both sides... could be any of us. The scale of death is very upsetting
Being in the position of Russians, yes agreed that could be anyone of us.
But a Ukie? No, only brain dead would be them. Either too thick to resist the propaganda, or too thick to recognise the danger of a rabid government and forced conscription and failing to get out earlier.
Kiev doesn't give a shit about the lives of the soldiers on the front. I reckon they even see mass casualties as a positive because its more likely to draw nato in directly, and for them to get more money and stuff
I have an immense sympathy for the poor Ukrainian soldier, deceived from the beginning , despised all along , disposed of massively in the end.
Yes, it could be any of us, the well-known " deplorables". The Masters are not
making any difference between the Ukrainian martyrs and us_ as we shall find out
soon enough.
+Currently we are witnessing Harward Project in action, how to kill Slavs,by Slavs, and is working like Swiss Watch
Alas, it is 😿 ! However, I do believe that the massacre will stop at some point, and reconciliation will take place. The Evil Ones cannot Always win 👹
This is not just one massacre and will end up horrible for the people, much more are planned by the International Bankster Cartel and absolute horrible slavery for the people, after they "prune the Herd"(a favorite word of Henry Kissinger, also said: Once we vaccinate the HERD, the Game is over, etc)), to about 500 Million people. Those will be connected to the Machines, controlled even their Thoughts. The problem is over 90% of people are SHEEPLE,sincerely,Janko
Kiev is in the mindset of Schneerson("the rebbe") read what he wrote about the decimation of the slavs in 1994, for me its still possible all this is a grand play(with chabad as the director) with the outcome to create some type of isreal 2.0 (a Zelensky advisor mentioned that too); which sure implies a relocation of the isrealites(thats where the provocation of the iran might come in handy, a strike one day...).... but sure all this is just a theory, one of many possible, there are alot big forces with interests.
Use your intuition Kati. Mine tells me that it is more than just a theory. I Do hope Mr. Putin is not part of the conspiracy to facilitate the return of the Khazarians to their ancestral land .
We do wonder at the determination the Ukrainian government seems to have to killing or debilitating an enormous number of its male population. And we know that the Ukrainian government is Not Ukrainian in essence.
That last af is brilliant! Hard to believe that there are still men available in Ukraine at this point.
The Belarusian development is nasty. Who knows what can of worms that will open.
My personal opinion, I don’t think NATO will or can attach Russia before Ukraine is levelled. NATO, like most of the West. Has been hollowed out by years of bureaucracy This doesn’t make them weak or without teeth, however
Thank God for Russia, thank God for Wagner, may He be with us all in these dark days.
Klitschko is 2m tall, doubt that he can fit inside a tank.
very good point..tankers are usually supposed to be small, then again if he's the 'driver', often the driver sits in a reclined type position in the front, maybe allowing a taller person, not 100% sure how large the Leopard driving compartment is but he doesn't have to 'stand up' like the ammo loader and hit his head on the ceiling, etc.
Just more P R MI6 SBU bs probably. 404 is the biggest fake news provider on this planet for one year
I wish for a magic wand to wave and place Zelensky & company along with Biden and his crew of morons into combat kits and send them off to the front lines and let everyone else go home . . . . . . . but not until open season is declared on the former political groups . . . . and can I make additions to the Biden crew of morons? The entire upper management ranks of Wall Street Banks and ALL of the Weapons Corporations.
Behind them is hiding an International Banker Cartels
Just the other day someone in the comments was saying x airfield was hit and blah blah and it was all over the news. And nothing actually happened. The only thing ukies are good at is making crap up.
could be but it seems it's confirmed by high level sources including a channel linked directly to Russian airforce (run by actual pilot). So it seems SOMETHING happened, only question is to what extent and what the reaction will be.
A diversion maybe for a real attack(20-25k UA at 1.5 km of the border) on PMR?It seems that romanian air defense are activated at the border with Moldova.
Belarus now says it didnt happen and ukies are inventing stuff. (On sputnik)
The Westie boys are peeing their pants with the thought they will have to soon go up against the combined might of not only Russia, but China, Iran and North Korea. Unfortunately for them, the Ukranian cannon fodder is running out.
To make matters even worse, it seems like Iran has hypersonic cruise missiles too!!! That was fast!!!
Actually the Resistance has been coordinating their attack against the vile West for years...we're just all seeing it come to fruition now. I heard a few years ago in fact that Russia and Iran were exchanging military technology secrets that the West has even no clue of. Iran has supposedly 2.200 kms of underground bases!!! This can be read today on The Intel Drop. Link: https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/02/25/iran-establishes-2200-km-of-strategic-underground-cities-irgc/
I estimate that it costs the Russians more than $20,000 per dead or seriously injured Ukrainian soldier.
Recently, before 24/02/22, I spent two years in Ukraine. I believe that if the Russians were to offer a reward of $10,000 to each Ukrainian soldier who surrenders, entire battalions would do so. With $10,000 an ordinary Ukrainian can set himself up and get married and settle down. Those who are already married would happily use the money to look after their kids.
There is a massive failure of imagination on the Russian side.
Hey that's exactly what U.S. did in Iraq. The reason the war went so fast is they paid off all the top generals (and by extension their troops) to surrender or flee, while the only real forces that fought were the more hardened Republican Guards, much fewer in number
Cash is a powerful weapon. The Russians are flush with cash. The Chinese even more so. Ukrainian peasants are desperately poor. Their wages are often stolen by their officers.
After WW1, the British used their air force to bomb rebel tribes in Afghanistan and northern Iraq. Planes were very risky in those days. The pilots had pamphlets that detailed the ransom that would be paid on handing over a captured pilot. The ransom offered decreased for each missing limb etc.
Conversely, I guess it’s what’s we’re (usa) doing right now —sending billions to UKR to keep them fighting, as without some sort of auditing, we have no idea where all the $$ is going. The corruption of UKR cannot be understated.
As has been pointed out repeatedly, the Ukies that want to surrender have guns pointed at their backs.
And most don't see the RF, and allies, they just hear the incoming arty and missiles. And then they are dead.
It is worth trying IMHO. It would certainly wind up the Nazis no end. They would fear that at any moment they could be overwhelmed by the more numerous conscripts.
Its the old 'one against many' situation. One or two soldiers surrendering are very vulnerable, but a whole unit turning their guns on their 'guards' first and then surrendering is a different ballgame. They would just need to avoid incoming from further back.
I think that most readers here are looking at my proposal in a purely functional way. However, war is largely a psychological affair. As Sun Tzu pointed out, it is best to win a war without fighting.
At the moment, from childhood, Ukrainians are told lurid tales about what the Russians do to their captives. Most soldiers on the front line believe that if they were captured, they would be tortured. Doubtless, the Nazi element will reinforce this belief.
By offering a large financial reward to defectors, this belief would disappear. The front line soldiers would be motivated to surrender whenever possible. The Nazis are not always at their backs. Patrols and scouts are sent out regularly. These are free to defect.
Once a few of these people defect, the Russians should put them on Telegram with their faces covered to tell all viewers that they now have this money and what they plan to do with it once the war is over. They would also say that they have been well-treated. There is no need to put them in cages if they need to stick around to collect (and spend) their rewards.
The monetary aspect and savings of the "Paid to surrender program" along with the savings in lives and preventing misery, has occurred to me to apply to the millions of refugees immigrating into Europe and illegal immigrants in the US.
The US per capital costs for these illegals is multiple times higher than what supplies a decent living in their native lands in Mexico and South America. (Likely this is true in Europe as well) Also it greatly behooves those nations to solve their own internal problems. Therefore with some guidance and international pressure to limit fraud, (this would be the major challenge here) it would be vastly more economical and productive to give greatly reduced funding to those regions that need it to stimulate there local economy, or in some cases to help rebuild.
While one can argue that such payments are not a US or European obligation, it is clear that it would be far more economical and less destructive then forced immigration of millions, who often end up on social programs for decades, and are victims of many crimes in their journey. And to an extent US and European policy has certainly helped create the conditions that are cause to forced migrations, like the US actions in Libya, as an example.
What is happening with illegal immigrants to Europe and the USA is a long-standing objective of dividing and weakening the middle and lower classes. It is working brilliantly. The UK has an Indian prime minister. :-)
Here is a Pakistani immigrant complaining that there are too many White people in Scotland.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/VSJRdKbpw_4/
It appears true, yet just more insanity. The objective hoped for, apparently breaking sovereign nations to create a One World Government, will simply not happen. (Pain, misery, broken economies and wars will happen)
Hopefully they are not trying to create the 500 million global population they have advocated for decades.
This is clearly another asymmetrical Ukrainian terrorist attack on Russia, via Belarus. These events are good for one or two attacks and then they are sealed tight by Russia. Its a provocation designed to trigger Belarus to cross the border, and hereby give NATO an excuse to escalate via Poland. Seriously doubt Belarus and Russia will fall for this trick, but they will respond via other means. This is also a distraction from the imminent fall of Bahkmut. Russia cannot park any serious air force assets anywhere without having an airtight, large perimeter. They seem slow to learn the lesson. Meanwhile, Russia continues to bomb specific regions daily and making good progress across the front.
Su 25 Rooks have been dropping FAB 500s lately.
There's now word that some glidebombs are being dropped or at least various guided bombs, though not sure what kind they're referring to and on which platform (even SM3 rooks don't really have the proper targeting pod to do so, I believe). Maybe 'Drel' bomb as it was seen in a Medvedev tour a few months ago of some missile/bomb factories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PBK-500U_Drel
Macgregor recently talked about +- 700k 'losses' for UA.I suppose he still has good friends in the Pentagon?
As follow: 350 kia+mia, rest being wia (at various levels) + pow (15k).
Trump is attacking ZE now in frontal, calling Nuland and co 'warmongers' who should resign.
That Biden will start WWIII. With him this war would have never happened and it would have saved thousands of lifes...If reelected he will stop the war in 24h..potus 2024 election will be focussed on ukraine, Trump betting on a coming 'ukraine neocons biden adventure' to collapse.
From NE Poland and was always reminded that Ukrainians can be like the devil himself.
I'm not sure how reliable Belarusian forces are ? I know almost nothing about Belarus ? How reliable is the Army. What are the sentiments of the people ? I'm not sure the Russians in Belarus or Belarusians have any intention of being drawn in by Ukrainian provocations if it is contrary to plans. Belarus main role seems to be to act as a buffer between Nato and Russia. Getting dragged into the conflict directly would seem to undermine that value.
Macgregor or one of those figures once said that the U.S. army considered Belarus to be the single worst-trained force in all of Europe. Globalfirepower doesn't rank them very high: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
In the tank biathlon and int'l army games, they often place roughly near the top 5. Their average over all biathlons I believe is #4 behind Russia, China, Kazakhstan, and in last year's Int'l Army Games they placed pretty well in #3 even above China
Russia: 87
Uzbekistan: 43
Belarus: 42
China: 23
Iran: 16
Kazakhstan: 14
Vietnam: 12
Azerbaijan, Algeria, Syria, Mongolia: 4
Venezuela, Myanmar: 3
Laos: 2
Armenia, Congo, Mali, Zimbagwe, India, Tajikistan: 1
Whether there's any truth to that at all, one thing that is certain is that they are not a large force. The entire armed forces is something around 50k (spread through ALL branches), so the ground forces alone is not even 20k of that....and in a given scenario, they would likely not be able to commit ALL ground forces because need to leave some behind for critical defense. So in short, unless they mobilized heavily, they don't even have more troops than Wagner or LPR.
Great post.
1. I don t think that Poland(NATO) will intervine în any case. They saw what hell is în Ukraine. How would the oolish people react whem after 2 months 25k polish soldiers come în body bags? Plus NATO doesn t have the ammo to sustain the fight. Plus Russia will have the legal justificative to attack Poland s infrastructure. Warsaw în the dark? Plus what does MATO think they will achieve? What happens if the nukes start flying? Big no no.
2. The attack on Transnistria. No way the ukranians have 25k troops there. They don t have suficient troops în the Harkov region. Plus what is the Point în attacking Transnistria? The ammo depot there is allready mined, if the ukranians come even close to it goes kabooom. Plus Transnistria has a pooulation of half a million, 20k soldiers plus at least 80k adult males who can take up arms. 100k to protect a small country, that is going to be a cluster fuck for the Kiev regime.That small region is well known to be packed full of weapons. It would be imposibile for the ukranians to get even close to Tiraspol.
3. This war will end when the russians will get feed up and launch a big ass avangard warhead without the nuclear payload. At 26mach it has a force of 2MT. It will create a giant hole în the centre of Kiev killing the clovn and all the army staff. That Ukraine will enter în anarchy mode. Then milions of people will Rush to Poland and the West will be în need shit. Than they will agree to stop the carnage.
Poland want ukraine destroyed so it can step in as say "We are going to look after the western parts that used to be poland, because they are our kin and someone has to, ukraine can. Dont worry it will just be for a little while"
If Poland takes western Ukraine the rest of Europe will be furious. Poland received Silesia from Germany after WW2 în exchange for Galitia with went to Ukraine. The germans will want Silesia back. This would give justifications for separists movements in Spain, Belgium, Scotland etc. A big no no. În fact if Poland takes Galicia the russians will be very happy. They will have the legal justificatiin to ask the west to recognize the Donbass as russian territory, the poles will inherit a land full of bat shit crazy Bandera lovers, tge polish population will be 1/5 ukranians, biiiig problems there, we know the ukranians are spoilled brats and they will want seats în the parlament, separate schools, etc. A cluster fuck for the dumb fucks în Warsaw.
It will cause a huge fracture in Nato. At least for one point, it should decrease popular support in western European countries. No one wants to get involved in Polish colonial adventures.
Macgregor says 20k Poles already fighting and 2500 killed: https://www.bitchute.com/video/qU2dpVO314j4/
There's been SOME sources that corroborate this in a variety of ways: reports of huge new cemeteries being built in Poland.
As for Transnistria, a new update just hit the channels stating that some officials in Donbass have gotten their hands on an alleged actual order showing the AFU ordering a specific engineering battalion over towards near the PMR border:
"❗️Attention❗️In Kuchurgany, bordering Pridnestrovie, ammunition will be transferred from Kirovograd - order of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The commander of the military unit of the engineer-sapper battalion of the 128th brigade of the armed forces of Ukraine was ordered to send personnel in order to organize the delivery of ammunition along the route of the settlement. Kuchurgan. Despite public statements about the absence of a provocation plan in Transnistria, Ukraine continues to drop forces to their border.
Earlier there were reports about the movement of the AFU grouping near the borders of Transnistria. The Russian Ministry of Defense also indicated that it had recorded a significant accumulation of personnel and military equipment of Ukrainian units near the Ukrainian-Pridnestrovian border, as well as the deployment of artillery in firing positions and an unprecedented increase in flights of unmanned aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the territory of the PMR."
https://i.imgur.com/6YIszP5.jpg
Btw the Transnistria attack I agree would likely not have much to do with the ammo, which I hear that a lot of which is old/expired/rotten from being badly stored, and a lot more of it has been sold off in the 90's by corrupt officials anyway. No, it would be more to encircle and kill/capture a huge portion of Russian troops to use as heavy leverage.
The attack on Transnistria is still an attack on Moldova per see. What happens if it goes wrong? What happens if the ukranians start getting killed on a massive scale there? The russians and local population are on the defensive there, they know the terrain perfect, so we have a perfect scenario for partisan warfare. The optics will be bad, still the MSM can t hide the fact that ukranians have invaded Transnistria. Whatever the case if the ukranians pull this stupidity they will be bogged down and after 2 weeks they will be crawling back. Keep up the good wirk.
You just brought up a good point I had forgotten about. Transnistria is INTERNATIONALLY by way of U.N./U.S. and "rules based order" b.s., considered as part of Moldova proper. So what happens to the big fancy U.N. 'rules based order' when AFU invades a territory that is internationally recognized as Moldovan sovereign territory.......?
I suppose they'll conveniently brush that under the table.
But yes you might be right. Unfortunately I'm not super familiar with the topological/terrain of Transnistria, I'll have to research and get acquainted with it, but there's good chance as you said that AFU could get bogged down. I said elsewhere that the prospect of this invasion looked much worse last year when AFU was threatening to invade with Moldova's help, but this time Moldova itself doesn't seem interested. It would be one thing if Moldovan forces attacked from the west, but AFU attacking alone from the east, I dunno how successful they'd be.
I think the crisis there is more a bluff meant to make Russia 'think twice' about gathering their next phase invasion. If Ukraine puts pressure here, they force Russia to think twice about committing their full forces to a massive invasion in Donbass, because Russia will be thinking about saving some of the forces for other theaters. But it's a double edged sword because if AFU actually invades and gets stuck in a bogged down situation as you said, then Russia could do a mass invasion of Donbass and now AFU will have much less resources/reserves because a large part of their force will be bogged down in some useless offensive in Transnistria.
My guess is Ukraine (either Zelensky or some rogue nazis) is trying to create provocations in Belarus to have an excuse to get Polish troops in West Ukraine. This enables releasingthe Ukraine troops to Donbass or elsewhere to the east, as garrison now replaced with Poles.
VG update TY. On the basis of past Russian performance in Babyface Tsar's fake and Gay liddle War - s'cuse me, "Special Military Operation" (LOL) - Haxo expects Bakhmut to fall.....whenever. And then, after another whenever - again, based on past Russian performance - be suddenly evacuated by the Russians.
are you suggesting Bakhmut won't fall soon?
no, but I suspect that it will not matter in the larger scheme of things. By not getting this war over and done with in a timely fashion - like 11 months ago - Putin has gotten Russia (and his regime) into a quagmire. Exactly as Uncle Schmuel intended.
What do you mean?
Considering the psychological, spiritual, economic, conditions of all involved, I struggle to see other outcomes than Russia capitulating and being reduced to obedience to the same powers the EU obeys to, and China finding itself in the crosshairs of the Empire, or World WarIII happening.
In turn, if WWIII happens, I struggle to see any scenario where a combination, a massive one, of nuclear and biological weapons are not used.
Russia and China are, I think, striving to strike a third, different outcome. They want to avoid being conquered, but also world war. Will it be possible?...
Whatdo you mean by"Considering the psychological, spiritual, economic, conditions of all involved, "?
I do not see Russia capitulating in the least. It is, IMV, a great failure for the US - NATO leaders to apparently not understand that, from Russia's perspective, this is a war for their survival. The US and NATO have taken many actions that at a minimum make this perspective understandable.
I say "apparently" because quite frankly I think they do know. And I have no idea what their end game is, as the west has taken many many suicidal actions for the past 14 years in particular. At what point does their incompetence, become competent?...
Self destructing US and European energy supplies, the life blood of every economy, https://anderdaa7.substack.com/#:~:text=(The%20theory%2C%20the%20science%2C%20the%20politics...) orchestrating the immigration of tens of millions of poor uneducated that have almost zero cultural similarities including language, and in many cases are taught to hate the nation they are immigrating to, creating absolute chaos in the ME and calling it the "Arab Spring" and leaving true terrorists with multiple billions of dollars of military hardware, likely creating a global pandemic and a definitely managing a response to that pandemic that breaks global supply lines, costs trillions, suppresses effective cheap prophylactic treatments, enhances tyrannical government power, is cause to millions of excess disability and deaths, and is also cause to reduced global efficiency as, beyond the excess deaths and disability, literally millions of the most productive management from every industry retired earlier than expected due to COVID policy. (BTW, this talent drain is true of our US military, for all the same reasons plus the Obama purge of top military leaders.) Doing all of the above and a far longer list could be noted, and then instigating a war with Russia while you are also willfully destroying your own currency, this is insane. And it is being done by the Ivy league educated that consider themselves to be the elite.
Truthfully, I have no idea what their end game is. China, Russia, India, and many other nations, after giving lip service to their One World games and policy, have no use for this crowd of would-be global Blackbeard's. https://open.substack.com/pub/anderdaa7/p/does-absolute-power-corrupt?r=slvym&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
My worry is that if you focus on daily briefs (which could be very interesting) we will miss out on the the more in-depth analysis like we were given in articles like "All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West's ISR Overmatch?".
That article (and others like it) is why I subbed. It was detailed, well-researched, and easy to understand, but certainly not the kind of thing we can get every day.
It elaborated on a single aspect of the war that helps me understand this war more in general and helps me be more knowledgeable about these matters in general.
Thats my two cents. I have been impressed with your content and will continue to read regardless of what you choose.
Thanks for the feedback. That's exactly why I was trying to gauge the rough sentiments of what people are wanting more of, but I definitely will not abandon the longer form ones as I agree that should be more of the bread and butter as well, so in fact I plan to increase them. But making shorter daily Sitreps could allow me to do one of the bigger ones every 2-3 days give or take.
Thanks !
Simplicius The Thinker, having read and enjoyed your analysis pieces, I have confidence in your ability to gauge and focus on the important aspects of this tragic cluster fuck the Capitalist Pigs of the West are conducting; both big picture and detailed events.
Keep your energy up along with your great work!
Thank you very much sir
If Belarus is forced to enter the SMO does this escalate to formal War?
I think this gives the Hyenas, sorry Polish, an excuse to nip at their mutual Border with Belarus, but at the same time putting troops into Galicia, Ukraine and thereafter gaining back that coveted land. They may even have a swipe at Kaliningrad.
And then there is the question of the Baltics? Will they also nibble away at the Belarus Border? Lithuana combine with the Hyenas and go at Kaliningrad too?
Yeah, Belarus has a lot to consider, their involvement will most likely trigger NATO involvement and we are into WW3 scenarios.
Scary times, unpredictable times, possible the end of times.