Well, strap in to your seats, folks, things are heating up and we’re in for a wild ride. Putin’s big address came and went. And depending who you ask it was either a dud or full of eerie portent. The speech mostly focused on banal domestic and economic matters, hardly mentioning the SMO—at least not with the fiery rhetoric some of us expected.
You couldn't be more wrong, but it's pointless to argue because you clearly have your mind already set up, and the echochambers that feed your pathologies will continue supplying you with the daily sustenance you need to keep going so all we can do is 'agree to disagree'.
It's true though that real economy channels its revenues into investments in international finance, and all this money eventually finds its way to the City of London. And international bankers, of Jewish descent, own controlling stakes of everything down there, and as a consequence hold a disproportionate amount of influence over the direction of world economy.
This has been going on since the 19th century at least, so far so that already in the 1950s it could be said that the British aristocracy was inextricably intertwined by way of intermarriage with these Jewish elites. Think nowadays of Princess Katherine, whose mother is a Goldsmith. Think of W. Churchill, heir to the Duke of Marlborough, and whom he associated with (search for the influence group "The Focus").
Maybe we can discard esoteric elements like Kabbala, religious fervor or revenge, this stuff about Khazaria, but we have to admit these International Jews hold the reins of power in the West. Possibly, it could have been any other clan operating successfully by nepotistic means, but it was actually the Jews who won out.
Feb 23, 2023·edited Feb 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius
If Ukraine & Moldova go into Transnistria it's going to be a total cluster fudge. Which in no way means they won't do it. There is no Russia is going to let that ammo dump get captured. Even if they don't manage to blow it in time (unlikely) they will hammer it with missiles before they let Ukraine get their hands on it. I don't even want to what an explosion that big would look like.
The military of the PMR is obviously small but its roughly the same size as Moldova's and unlike Moldova it actually has tanks. Moldova has more than twice as many trained reservists though circa 58k to 24k.This the link below describe its military if you scroll towards the bottom. It's interesting. Obviously they would be in terrible strategic situation if Moldova and Ukraine attacked simultaneously but it may not be a cake walk like they expect. I hope it doesn't happen.
funny you say that cus there was entire articles written up comparing the PMR depot to the Beirut ammonium nitrate explosion. However the Beirut blast was rated somewhere between 500 tons of TNT (0.500 kilotons) to about 1.5 kilotons if I recall correctly.
The Kobasna depot is said to have 20,000 tons of munitions which I would expect to be equivalent to 20k tons of TNT or 20 kilotons... the Hiroshima and Nagasaki blasts were IIRC about 11-14 kilotons. So, I guess that's why the quote in my report said "large parts of Moldova would be destroyed" if that depot goes up in flames. It should be a nuclear level blast.
Thanks for explaining this I appreciate it. I was just looking at the satellite image of the dump on Google maps. Obviously it's not real time images but I'm assuming the images are probably from within the last 5 years maybe. You can definitely make out separated warehouses surrounded by berms. It also looks there are berms set up around areas that used to be occupied by warehouses but are just bare ground where the warehouses used to be. At least that's what it looks to me. Thanks again
Feb 23, 2023·edited Feb 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius
Oh yeah it would be on a much greater scale than Beriut. The largest non-nuclear explosion in history was in Halifax in 1917 when a munitions ship carrying 2600 tons of explosives blew up (roughly equivalent to 2.9 kilotons). It killed 2000 people and much of the city was destroyed. So if Kobasna really does hold 20k tons of munitions it would be around 8 times greater than the largest non-nuclear explosion in history I'm guessing.
Unless I misunderstand, the key here is that the explosions would carry on for weeks, which tells me that it wouldn't be one huge, massively destructive explosion but a series of explosions of relatively smaller impact over a period of time. This is to say that it seems to me unlikely that such an event could destroy "significant chunks of Moldova and Odessa region of Ukraine". Of course, I could be wrong...;-)
Unless Russia lied, and I don't think they did, they ferreted out all their previous supplies of chemical weapons and destroyed them under the treaty. So there shouldn't be any there. Again, however, I might just be wrong... ;-)
Interesting thanks you I had thought they'd rig to it blow all at once but I'm definitely not an expert on the subject. Thanks for explaining much appreciated.
I recall there was an ammunition train headed to resupply Vietnam that exploded in Roseville Calif in 1973. It leveled the railroad yard as well as virtually all of the town. It had 21 boxcars each with 300 Mk82 500 lb bombs. The news was intentionally vague about it but if you search hard you can find the data. My ex-in-laws retired to Roseville back in 1990 and I noticed every building in the city (a suburb of Sacramento) was new and then learned about the disaster. Anyway, I think this comes to 3.2 kilotons unless my math is off.
Thanks, I had thought it might be too high but was very destructive nonetheless. I hadn't considered the actual explosives contained in each bomb compared to a given bomb weight.
Interesting I haven't heard of it before (which doesn't mean much as I'm sure there are lots of incidents like this I haven't before). I'll try & do some research on it. Looks like I might wrong about the biggest non-nuclear explosion in history thanks for letting me know much appreciated.
Yeah, ukraine had several ammo dump fires to cover how much had been sent to isis around that time. They are really just fancy firework shows most of the time
Greetings Simplicius... I'd like you to entertain that the attack on Donetsk in August 2014 was a nuclear detonation. The public's understanding of this technology hasn't matched the advancement in this field. It also fits with why Putin changed Russia's nuclear doctrine. This article sheds a light on this class of weaponry and what might happen to the ammo depot in question
The article I sent you the link for, is written by a nuclear physicist. As for testing equipment, your mobile phone is a good testing device. Please browsecthe article.
I'd be interested in knowing what the average citizen of the various Rus Federation Republics thought of Putin's speech. If it helped to consolidate unity of purpose and national/societal cohesion for the tough fight ahead then it was a success.
I pray that the squabbling between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership is more maskirovka psyops but I guess we won't know.
And while the world was focused on Putin's speech, Wang Yi met with Putin, Lavrov and Patrushev. My guess is that China knows it's proposal for a negotiated end to the SMO will be rejected or sabotaged by the West but they want to show the Global South that it is D.C. and NATO that's hellbent on aggression and destruction of any nation which rejects it's "rules based order" hegemony.
It's also a clever way to encourage the some European nations to stand up to D.C. and start to realign their foreign policies that benefit their own people instead of the Washington Warmongering Cabal.
Putin's ambiguity regarding the red line when Russia will resort to nukes is a sound strategy. If Russia launches a first strike it should come as a complete surprise to the Deep State so they won't have enough time to scuttle off to their bunkers while us civilians end up vaporized. It would serve as a credible deterrent.
Personally I don't think the Prigozhin situation is maskirovka BUT it's also no where near as big/significant as ppl make it out to be. This is typical squabbling that has happened during the entire history of warfare but is only highlighted now in our modern plugged in cyberage because everyone's got phones and internet and the first thing they do is make videos and blog posts about any problems. The U.S. had the same type of squabbles and problems as far back as the iraq war as I understand it, having watched a recent interview about it where some contractors were embezzling huge funds and sending cheap crap-tier armor to the soldiers, and a big scandal broke out etc.
The fact of the matter is, Wagner is advancing as we speak FAR faster they they've ever advanced before. So ammunition or not it's not having a noticeable effect on the battlefield and things are still progressing quite well for RF.
Everything you say is very likely and it shows a great understanding of the situation. As you say, this is the Rand script. For the nuclear provocation Russia will probably just respond by changing its nuclear doctrine. One of the pilars of the Russian policy is not to react to provocations in a simetrical way. Concerning Transnistria, they already successfully fought back an US led invation in 1997, which was an epic episode remembered by all in Russia. Maybe they will be able to keep the ground. I cant see how Russia could help them other than a very risky sea landing together with a parachute operation. Looks like there will be at least another long year of war. In the meantime, rumors about a gold based sino-russian currency seem widely unfounded.
Really nothing to add about what you said. Just a question about the "common currency" project :
I really don't know much about economics, but I guess the reason why the Sinno-Russian currency cannot become a reality has to do with the fact that the Chinese economy, which is much larger than the Russian economy (this is not a judgment but a "fact" based on qualified manpower, industrial ressources, modern infrastructures, etc), allows it to create much more "real" wealth, and by extension more capacity to buy and store gold. Under these conditions, by the sheer strength of its economy, China would be able to play on the real value of gold and therefore have leverage over the Russian economy, which could only react by limiting access to its natural resources (possibly payable in gold). I realize that what I am saying would make real economists scream, but if anyone can enlighten me on this point, I would be happy to learn.
Good points. Russia has a lot, but less gold than China. But Russia has more natural resources than China. When looking at what BRICS offers as a consortium, one must look at all countries involved more holistically. My biggest concern is the USA backed coup instillation of Lula, and this gives me more pause about BRICS than any other considerations. Brazil is loaded with natural res, tho not as much as RUS. Brazil is the bigger kink in BRICS, tho Lula is said to be in China’s pocket. Did our US state dept again make a strategic mistake or is China better than Bolsonaro-Trump alternative?
Let me add that what Putin has been able to do with sheer brilliance is play on the fears of the collective West to elevate Russia with its low gdp and population to push BRICS into the scariest of all outcomes for USA hegemony and dollar dominance. He is the brain of BRICS with China leadership. Important to note that one-child past law is expected to curtail China population dramatically, hence the Covid lockdown display we witnessed. China is population scared right now. Pivot to Biden and our border-let ‘em in as fast as you can.
Sure there are those that claim that 'China has secret reserves' which are much higher, but you can say that for any country. Officially, Russia has bigger gold reserves.
Yeah I've seen the statement as well but you can say that for any country. Russia might be greatly underreported too, why not? It would benefit anyone strategically to do that. So we can only go by official numbers and Russia officially has a larger stockpile
The thing is, it COULD be true but, if you'll notice, when it comes to China that particular trope is very common for almost everything. For instance, China officially has 300+ nukes but the common trope on the 'net is "oh those are undercounted too! China actually has over 1000-2000+" etc. So when it comes to anything for China for some reason it's always "undercounted", even though China JUST announced themselves that they plan to increase their nukes from 300 to 1000 by 2035....so don't believe everything you hear. And keep in mind I'ma huge China supporter so I'm not saying they're lying but that's just how it goes on the internet
Why are" rumors" about a a gold based Sino-Russian currency unfounded? The Brics have already announced publicly they are pursuing a commodities backed currency alternative to the USD. This is more than rumors. Gold would be part of that commodities basket. This is not a rumor, but a fact. The timing of introducing this new currency under review by the Brics and other participating nations.
That's correct, it's just taking time of course but it clearly seems to be moving in that direction. It will hit a critical mass of momentum once the most important countries have gotten into the same 'club' whether that's BRICS or something else, which allows them to streamline and standardize the process among themselves. Right now with Iran/Saudi Arabia appearing with interest to join, it is slowly moving in that direction
Gold-backed currency is not unfounded. It is a fact, and the Atlanticists with their sanctions and freezing sovereign reserves have accelerated it. Check out this wonderful video that breaks it up for even the layman. https://youtu.be/FzI0oyxQ218
Vlad just runs rings around his Western counterparts without even trying.. He absolutely was aware that FJB was going to address NATO/the West from Warsaw AFTER his own speech, and that an army of speechwriters with prepared ripostes to any hint of Russian belligerence were waiting....
And he gave them nothing....
Just that subtle hint of the mailed fist, ready if needed. Sun Tzu would nod his head, recognising a true student of his words.
There is hope still alive in this world. I bet his bodyguards are truly earning their keep.
I like Moldova, winding roads hills and farmland . Chisinau spoke Russian the last time I was there , and the people were friendly. I hitch hiked thru Transnistria cosa nostra { LOL } and got hit up for 15 bucks on the way in and on the way out. That Americano pass port will do it to you everytime - lol On that last stretch of hiway right before the Ukie check point, the local cop got the driver of my ride for 5 bucks. I made off like I was asleep , so he couldn't see my pass port - lol. I never felt threatened and it looked like Transnistria never messes with the Moldovan side much, but now that the EU has the Sandu Regime in power, we can figure on some fireworks. A few hypersonics where the Ukies congregate should give them a Hint. So much for giving Moldova all that discounted gaz for all those decades. The West has No Respect.
Agreed, the USA will use is well published and understood chaos playbook, and Russia will use its tactics and methods to defend against such actions and achieve its goals. One side plays dirty with no honor, the other side plays largely clean with honor and dignity. This is a spiritual war, one side fighting to tyrannize and control the world, the other to defend human and state sovereignty, free choice. Its a world war. Russia is prepared to further escalate as the West plays new dirty tricks. My guess is Ukraine is in for a rude surprise should it try to invade Transnistria. The West has telegraphed almost all its actions in advance. Russia does not.
Feb 23, 2023·edited Feb 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius
They just bombed 2 buildings in Mariupol, destroyed an airport runway, striked belgorod (2 killed), striked Donetsk (4 killed)..they announced a symbolic ''invasion'' friday inside Russia + strike on Crimea bridge(just reopen today) and a fireworks deep inside Russia..if VP does not declare war on 404 after that (if true of course)...
BOMBING ON MARIOUPOL
During the bombardments on Mariupol, residential buildings were hit as well as the airport runways which had been repaired.
Several missiles were intercepted, including at least 1 above the sea, near Taganrok, at the entrance to the Rostov Region (it was probably aimed at the military airfield further east).
All these sites are more than 100 km from the front line. This accredited the hypothesis that it was long-range missiles for HIMARS (GLSDB or other) that were fired instead of the usual M31 rockets (84 km maximum).
The Armed Forces of Ukraine carry out a large-scale transfer of their forces to the borders with Russia near the Bryansk and Kursk regions
In an official message of the Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the inhabitants of the northern regions of Ukraine, it is requested to stop the recording of photos and videos and the dissemination of information about the large-scale movement of equipment and Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel in the Chernogov and Sumy regions.
1. none of that has been confirmed. THere's not a single shred of photo/video evidence of any actual hits, so I can assume everything over Mariupol was shot down
2. even the airport they CLAIMED to have hit, is not actually "inside Mariupol" but several kilometers west of the city, which is telling
3. There is zero evidence of any GLSDB usage or other long range strike systems thus far. The most probable hypothesis without further data is the typical drone strikes of some sort, i.e. for instance 'saboteur' drones which are controlled and sent from nearby, rather than long range drones which fly from UA territory.
We'll see if any actual evidence otherwise comes up but for now I don't see it
I have a friend in DPR he has a tm channel very accurate, he lost an arm(fighting with dpr since 2015), though he is sniper, for the moment on the rear, but infos are correct...as he is linked to RU telecom central command.
We'll see. No evidence yet that I can see of any hits. Every other hit before there was always instant photos/videos everywhere. This has already been almost a whole day and nothing
I don't care how well they perform, I am very uneasy on the very concept of private armies. The Americans started the modern version of it, with their unique corporate style, but I am firmly against it. The last thing we need is a return to the Medieval style Barons and their private armies, vying for control and status.
I agree. And now Wagner has popularized it so much that everyone and their grandma wants their own private army. Not only do we see copy cats like 'Mozart' group in Ukraine but now Kadyrov has announced he wants his own PMC and even Gazprom is now beginning the creation of their own PMC forces...this isa dystopian development
Légion étrangère is de facto some kind of wagner(prisonners etc)..and nobody finds it anormal eventhough it is not private but the same concept..for info a few hundreds are in Odessa like uk SAS (350) are near Nikolaev.
Further proof of the failure of the “too big to fail” mil-industrial complexes to meet the needs of modern warfare minus nukes. I don’t think it’s dystopian. It seems practical and very logical. After Nord bombing, they need to protect their infrastructure interests. People willing to fight, like professional boxers, are not born with a silver spoon.
Russia will blow the ammo for sure before NATO/AFU steal it.
You can also bet the General Staff saw all this coming a mile away.
The turbulence in Moldova going on for some time has provided the General Staff with plenty of heads up to make certain contingencies regarding that huge ammunition depot in Transnistria.
Regrettably NATO and Western Alliance will not ever let this go. This is war now is going exactly what the West hoped it would.
Yes I do expect to see the most ugly side of the West finally expose itself to the entire world using every dirty trick to escalate the conflict.
And we all know it has become an existential fight for both sides with smaller nations gathered around like vultures waiting to feed on death and destruction that follows.
It looks like this is all shaping up to be a fight between a civilization that honors God and the one that does not who in fact despises good and wholesome things; for this alone they loathe Russia.
And the crazy thing the West doesn’t even understand for this reason they hate not only Russia but even their own citizens who honor God and respect good and wholesome living.
The West attacks all those who are not in agreement with their vile behavior and depraved ideologies.
Russians have ceded territory before, as in Kharkhiv & Kherson areas. So they can do it in Transnistria. Over there I would mine and blow the deposit up at the first serious sign of danger. Expect the unexpected, including paratroopers and what not. That depot, everyone is salivating for it.
With the deed done I would surrender the troops to Moldova.
Putin abrogated that treaty probably because for 10+ years there was no resolution from Moldova on the actual status of Transnistria (which was likely convenient for Moscow as well - better a frozen conflict than a sorted out maybe federated Moldova that would have led to a forced retreat of Russian troops. What I am puzzled by is the fact that the Russians kept that gold chest of ammunitions there for almost 30 years). A sort of mini Minsk. But in all honesty, by rights, Transnistria should stay with Moldova just as an exchange for the lost Bugeac, which is now part of the Odessa Oblast, that appendix on the Black Sea that pushes West. That is historical Moldovan/Romanian territory. Same way Donbas, Novorossiya are historical Russian territories.
As always, a well crafted and informative article, thank you.
Putin appeared relaxed and well balanced. He looked pretty healthy contrary to the Western propagandists. The man simply exudes wisdom and forethought.
When it come to Ukraine and in a more sane world, the family of nations should defend the oppressed. After exhausting peaceful means, military action becomes a necessary transition into a legitimate defensive war. For all to see, this is exactly what Putin is doing. After, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, the world understands what Putin is doing and supports him.
No, he's trying hard to win the invisible war that you don't see. The Ukraine, 'on the ground' war is just one tiny segment of the much larger proportioned civilizational hybrid 5gw war happening on a huge geopolitical and global scale.
Is ukies were ''winning'' do you believe they would kidnap men on the street by force and send them as canon fodder into the meat grinder? Same mobilizing from 16 to up to 60+, even sick, elderly, women now....ukie ''winning'' needing to cry for more weapons on a daily basis..etc
Calm down with that rabid and profane verbal diarrhea. This blog is a more highbrow space for discussing matters, not the typical internet sewer you come from. Go back to Stormfront or wherever you came from if you want to post like an angsty nerdraging 13 year old.
Love your updates. But do disagree with the opening statement that Putin’s speech included banal economic information. I just published a three part series on the ethnic and nationalistic factors that heavily influence a persons support of Russia versus the totalitarian imperialistic collective west. I examined why some Russians prefer neo-nazism over democracy. It hinges largely on generational trauma during Soviet Union and the to sudden transition in 1991 when communism collapsed, abandoning millions of Europeans in to chaos for 10 years. Putin stabilized it, but allowed oligarchy to thrive and regular people to live in comparable poverty.
Therefore the economic changes Putin proposed in his speech is to improve the lives of ordinary, working Russians and families. He offered housing subsidies and 20 percent wage increases for example. That would do a lot of good in US too. Human Resources are a major strength in war and economic security. Russians, Ukrainians, and Baltic people still living remember the Soviet trauma. It is crucial that The Russian government support its citizens or it will lose the war.
Bottom line, the speech did not leak military tactical plans but supported its people that it needs as well for long term victory.
The 5G oligarchs and their liberal children are probably not so happy about sharing the wealth. Russia is far from perfect but not the totalitarian regime of Soviet days either. If Russia loses the war and the woke NATO NWO takes over, humanity is doomed. Putin needs to clean the Russian swamp of deep state traitors.
You couldn't be more wrong, but it's pointless to argue because you clearly have your mind already set up, and the echochambers that feed your pathologies will continue supplying you with the daily sustenance you need to keep going so all we can do is 'agree to disagree'.
What greater israel has to do here?
It's true though that real economy channels its revenues into investments in international finance, and all this money eventually finds its way to the City of London. And international bankers, of Jewish descent, own controlling stakes of everything down there, and as a consequence hold a disproportionate amount of influence over the direction of world economy.
This has been going on since the 19th century at least, so far so that already in the 1950s it could be said that the British aristocracy was inextricably intertwined by way of intermarriage with these Jewish elites. Think nowadays of Princess Katherine, whose mother is a Goldsmith. Think of W. Churchill, heir to the Duke of Marlborough, and whom he associated with (search for the influence group "The Focus").
Maybe we can discard esoteric elements like Kabbala, religious fervor or revenge, this stuff about Khazaria, but we have to admit these International Jews hold the reins of power in the West. Possibly, it could have been any other clan operating successfully by nepotistic means, but it was actually the Jews who won out.
If Ukraine & Moldova go into Transnistria it's going to be a total cluster fudge. Which in no way means they won't do it. There is no Russia is going to let that ammo dump get captured. Even if they don't manage to blow it in time (unlikely) they will hammer it with missiles before they let Ukraine get their hands on it. I don't even want to what an explosion that big would look like.
The military of the PMR is obviously small but its roughly the same size as Moldova's and unlike Moldova it actually has tanks. Moldova has more than twice as many trained reservists though circa 58k to 24k.This the link below describe its military if you scroll towards the bottom. It's interesting. Obviously they would be in terrible strategic situation if Moldova and Ukraine attacked simultaneously but it may not be a cake walk like they expect. I hope it doesn't happen.
https://tanks-encyclopedia.com/pridnestrovian-moldavian-republic-transnistria/
funny you say that cus there was entire articles written up comparing the PMR depot to the Beirut ammonium nitrate explosion. However the Beirut blast was rated somewhere between 500 tons of TNT (0.500 kilotons) to about 1.5 kilotons if I recall correctly.
The Kobasna depot is said to have 20,000 tons of munitions which I would expect to be equivalent to 20k tons of TNT or 20 kilotons... the Hiroshima and Nagasaki blasts were IIRC about 11-14 kilotons. So, I guess that's why the quote in my report said "large parts of Moldova would be destroyed" if that depot goes up in flames. It should be a nuclear level blast.
Thx for link though, I'll check it out
Thanks for explaining this I appreciate it. I was just looking at the satellite image of the dump on Google maps. Obviously it's not real time images but I'm assuming the images are probably from within the last 5 years maybe. You can definitely make out separated warehouses surrounded by berms. It also looks there are berms set up around areas that used to be occupied by warehouses but are just bare ground where the warehouses used to be. At least that's what it looks to me. Thanks again
Oh yeah it would be on a much greater scale than Beriut. The largest non-nuclear explosion in history was in Halifax in 1917 when a munitions ship carrying 2600 tons of explosives blew up (roughly equivalent to 2.9 kilotons). It killed 2000 people and much of the city was destroyed. So if Kobasna really does hold 20k tons of munitions it would be around 8 times greater than the largest non-nuclear explosion in history I'm guessing.
Unless I misunderstand, the key here is that the explosions would carry on for weeks, which tells me that it wouldn't be one huge, massively destructive explosion but a series of explosions of relatively smaller impact over a period of time. This is to say that it seems to me unlikely that such an event could destroy "significant chunks of Moldova and Odessa region of Ukraine". Of course, I could be wrong...;-)
yeah unless there's something really crazy stored there like chem weapons
Unless Russia lied, and I don't think they did, they ferreted out all their previous supplies of chemical weapons and destroyed them under the treaty. So there shouldn't be any there. Again, however, I might just be wrong... ;-)
The trouble is that a lot of it is artillery ammunition (both gun and rocket).
It would fly in all directions completely unpredictably.
Interesting thanks you I had thought they'd rig to it blow all at once but I'm definitely not an expert on the subject. Thanks for explaining much appreciated.
I recall there was an ammunition train headed to resupply Vietnam that exploded in Roseville Calif in 1973. It leveled the railroad yard as well as virtually all of the town. It had 21 boxcars each with 300 Mk82 500 lb bombs. The news was intentionally vague about it but if you search hard you can find the data. My ex-in-laws retired to Roseville back in 1990 and I noticed every building in the city (a suburb of Sacramento) was new and then learned about the disaster. Anyway, I think this comes to 3.2 kilotons unless my math is off.
Thanks, I had thought it might be too high but was very destructive nonetheless. I hadn't considered the actual explosives contained in each bomb compared to a given bomb weight.
Interesting I haven't heard of it before (which doesn't mean much as I'm sure there are lots of incidents like this I haven't before). I'll try & do some research on it. Looks like I might wrong about the biggest non-nuclear explosion in history thanks for letting me know much appreciated.
The ammo depot in Transdnistria has a size of approximately 100 ha. Whereas the depot in Balakleja has a size of ~350 ha. In 2009 it was capable of holding 150 000 tons of ammo. This one exploded in 2017 (https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B0%D1%80_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B5_%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B2_%D0%B2_%D0%91%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B5). Not completely, 3 bunkers where still +/- intact in spring of 2022 and shown in Russian clips, lots of 122 mm Grad rockest and NATO 60 mm mortar shells and more.
Very dangerous, but the ammo wouldn't explode at the same time, except if triggered 911 style.
Yeah, ukraine had several ammo dump fires to cover how much had been sent to isis around that time. They are really just fancy firework shows most of the time
Greetings Simplicius... I'd like you to entertain that the attack on Donetsk in August 2014 was a nuclear detonation. The public's understanding of this technology hasn't matched the advancement in this field. It also fits with why Putin changed Russia's nuclear doctrine. This article sheds a light on this class of weaponry and what might happen to the ammo depot in question
https://www.veteranstodayarchives.com/2015/09/04/vt-nuclear-education-the-uranium-hydride-bomb/explosion
I don't know about that. I highly doubt it as it is extremely easy to detect nuclear aftermaths via various sensors, but anything is possible
The article I sent you the link for, is written by a nuclear physicist. As for testing equipment, your mobile phone is a good testing device. Please browsecthe article.
I imagine if they go for the ammo depot they will find a gigantic hole in the ground.
The 3000 man garrison will be tough to evac tho
I'd be interested in knowing what the average citizen of the various Rus Federation Republics thought of Putin's speech. If it helped to consolidate unity of purpose and national/societal cohesion for the tough fight ahead then it was a success.
I pray that the squabbling between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership is more maskirovka psyops but I guess we won't know.
And while the world was focused on Putin's speech, Wang Yi met with Putin, Lavrov and Patrushev. My guess is that China knows it's proposal for a negotiated end to the SMO will be rejected or sabotaged by the West but they want to show the Global South that it is D.C. and NATO that's hellbent on aggression and destruction of any nation which rejects it's "rules based order" hegemony.
It's also a clever way to encourage the some European nations to stand up to D.C. and start to realign their foreign policies that benefit their own people instead of the Washington Warmongering Cabal.
Putin's ambiguity regarding the red line when Russia will resort to nukes is a sound strategy. If Russia launches a first strike it should come as a complete surprise to the Deep State so they won't have enough time to scuttle off to their bunkers while us civilians end up vaporized. It would serve as a credible deterrent.
Personally I don't think the Prigozhin situation is maskirovka BUT it's also no where near as big/significant as ppl make it out to be. This is typical squabbling that has happened during the entire history of warfare but is only highlighted now in our modern plugged in cyberage because everyone's got phones and internet and the first thing they do is make videos and blog posts about any problems. The U.S. had the same type of squabbles and problems as far back as the iraq war as I understand it, having watched a recent interview about it where some contractors were embezzling huge funds and sending cheap crap-tier armor to the soldiers, and a big scandal broke out etc.
The fact of the matter is, Wagner is advancing as we speak FAR faster they they've ever advanced before. So ammunition or not it's not having a noticeable effect on the battlefield and things are still progressing quite well for RF.
Everything you say is very likely and it shows a great understanding of the situation. As you say, this is the Rand script. For the nuclear provocation Russia will probably just respond by changing its nuclear doctrine. One of the pilars of the Russian policy is not to react to provocations in a simetrical way. Concerning Transnistria, they already successfully fought back an US led invation in 1997, which was an epic episode remembered by all in Russia. Maybe they will be able to keep the ground. I cant see how Russia could help them other than a very risky sea landing together with a parachute operation. Looks like there will be at least another long year of war. In the meantime, rumors about a gold based sino-russian currency seem widely unfounded.
Really nothing to add about what you said. Just a question about the "common currency" project :
I really don't know much about economics, but I guess the reason why the Sinno-Russian currency cannot become a reality has to do with the fact that the Chinese economy, which is much larger than the Russian economy (this is not a judgment but a "fact" based on qualified manpower, industrial ressources, modern infrastructures, etc), allows it to create much more "real" wealth, and by extension more capacity to buy and store gold. Under these conditions, by the sheer strength of its economy, China would be able to play on the real value of gold and therefore have leverage over the Russian economy, which could only react by limiting access to its natural resources (possibly payable in gold). I realize that what I am saying would make real economists scream, but if anyone can enlighten me on this point, I would be happy to learn.
Good points. Russia has a lot, but less gold than China. But Russia has more natural resources than China. When looking at what BRICS offers as a consortium, one must look at all countries involved more holistically. My biggest concern is the USA backed coup instillation of Lula, and this gives me more pause about BRICS than any other considerations. Brazil is loaded with natural res, tho not as much as RUS. Brazil is the bigger kink in BRICS, tho Lula is said to be in China’s pocket. Did our US state dept again make a strategic mistake or is China better than Bolsonaro-Trump alternative?
Let me add that what Putin has been able to do with sheer brilliance is play on the fears of the collective West to elevate Russia with its low gdp and population to push BRICS into the scariest of all outcomes for USA hegemony and dollar dominance. He is the brain of BRICS with China leadership. Important to note that one-child past law is expected to curtail China population dramatically, hence the Covid lockdown display we witnessed. China is population scared right now. Pivot to Biden and our border-let ‘em in as fast as you can.
where are you getting that Russia has less gold than China? Russia PRODUCES slightly less gold although they are both in the top 3 producers on earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_production
However in gold reserves/stockpiles, Russia is ahead of China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
Sure there are those that claim that 'China has secret reserves' which are much higher, but you can say that for any country. Officially, Russia has bigger gold reserves.
China's reserves are more than likely under reported. I've seen this statement quite a bit. Like Fort Knox. Who the hell really knows what's there.
Yeah I've seen the statement as well but you can say that for any country. Russia might be greatly underreported too, why not? It would benefit anyone strategically to do that. So we can only go by official numbers and Russia officially has a larger stockpile
I guess I should not rely on their propaganda (or seeing Chinese nationals buy up all the high K gold at the LA jewelry mart. Lol.)
The thing is, it COULD be true but, if you'll notice, when it comes to China that particular trope is very common for almost everything. For instance, China officially has 300+ nukes but the common trope on the 'net is "oh those are undercounted too! China actually has over 1000-2000+" etc. So when it comes to anything for China for some reason it's always "undercounted", even though China JUST announced themselves that they plan to increase their nukes from 300 to 1000 by 2035....so don't believe everything you hear. And keep in mind I'ma huge China supporter so I'm not saying they're lying but that's just how it goes on the internet
As a Ukrainian American, I understand Russia more than I’ll ever China. Thanks for your brilliant analyses.
Why are" rumors" about a a gold based Sino-Russian currency unfounded? The Brics have already announced publicly they are pursuing a commodities backed currency alternative to the USD. This is more than rumors. Gold would be part of that commodities basket. This is not a rumor, but a fact. The timing of introducing this new currency under review by the Brics and other participating nations.
That's correct, it's just taking time of course but it clearly seems to be moving in that direction. It will hit a critical mass of momentum once the most important countries have gotten into the same 'club' whether that's BRICS or something else, which allows them to streamline and standardize the process among themselves. Right now with Iran/Saudi Arabia appearing with interest to join, it is slowly moving in that direction
Gold-backed currency is not unfounded. It is a fact, and the Atlanticists with their sanctions and freezing sovereign reserves have accelerated it. Check out this wonderful video that breaks it up for even the layman. https://youtu.be/FzI0oyxQ218
Vlad just runs rings around his Western counterparts without even trying.. He absolutely was aware that FJB was going to address NATO/the West from Warsaw AFTER his own speech, and that an army of speechwriters with prepared ripostes to any hint of Russian belligerence were waiting....
And he gave them nothing....
Just that subtle hint of the mailed fist, ready if needed. Sun Tzu would nod his head, recognising a true student of his words.
There is hope still alive in this world. I bet his bodyguards are truly earning their keep.
I like Moldova, winding roads hills and farmland . Chisinau spoke Russian the last time I was there , and the people were friendly. I hitch hiked thru Transnistria cosa nostra { LOL } and got hit up for 15 bucks on the way in and on the way out. That Americano pass port will do it to you everytime - lol On that last stretch of hiway right before the Ukie check point, the local cop got the driver of my ride for 5 bucks. I made off like I was asleep , so he couldn't see my pass port - lol. I never felt threatened and it looked like Transnistria never messes with the Moldovan side much, but now that the EU has the Sandu Regime in power, we can figure on some fireworks. A few hypersonics where the Ukies congregate should give them a Hint. So much for giving Moldova all that discounted gaz for all those decades. The West has No Respect.
Agreed, the USA will use is well published and understood chaos playbook, and Russia will use its tactics and methods to defend against such actions and achieve its goals. One side plays dirty with no honor, the other side plays largely clean with honor and dignity. This is a spiritual war, one side fighting to tyrannize and control the world, the other to defend human and state sovereignty, free choice. Its a world war. Russia is prepared to further escalate as the West plays new dirty tricks. My guess is Ukraine is in for a rude surprise should it try to invade Transnistria. The West has telegraphed almost all its actions in advance. Russia does not.
well said
They just bombed 2 buildings in Mariupol, destroyed an airport runway, striked belgorod (2 killed), striked Donetsk (4 killed)..they announced a symbolic ''invasion'' friday inside Russia + strike on Crimea bridge(just reopen today) and a fireworks deep inside Russia..if VP does not declare war on 404 after that (if true of course)...
BOMBING ON MARIOUPOL
During the bombardments on Mariupol, residential buildings were hit as well as the airport runways which had been repaired.
Several missiles were intercepted, including at least 1 above the sea, near Taganrok, at the entrance to the Rostov Region (it was probably aimed at the military airfield further east).
All these sites are more than 100 km from the front line. This accredited the hypothesis that it was long-range missiles for HIMARS (GLSDB or other) that were fired instead of the usual M31 rockets (84 km maximum).
The Armed Forces of Ukraine carry out a large-scale transfer of their forces to the borders with Russia near the Bryansk and Kursk regions
In an official message of the Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the inhabitants of the northern regions of Ukraine, it is requested to stop the recording of photos and videos and the dissemination of information about the large-scale movement of equipment and Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel in the Chernogov and Sumy regions.
As far as I can see:
1. none of that has been confirmed. THere's not a single shred of photo/video evidence of any actual hits, so I can assume everything over Mariupol was shot down
2. even the airport they CLAIMED to have hit, is not actually "inside Mariupol" but several kilometers west of the city, which is telling
3. There is zero evidence of any GLSDB usage or other long range strike systems thus far. The most probable hypothesis without further data is the typical drone strikes of some sort, i.e. for instance 'saboteur' drones which are controlled and sent from nearby, rather than long range drones which fly from UA territory.
We'll see if any actual evidence otherwise comes up but for now I don't see it
I have a friend in DPR he has a tm channel very accurate, he lost an arm(fighting with dpr since 2015), though he is sniper, for the moment on the rear, but infos are correct...as he is linked to RU telecom central command.
We'll see. No evidence yet that I can see of any hits. Every other hit before there was always instant photos/videos everywhere. This has already been almost a whole day and nothing
Interesting would you mind sharing his TM channel I'd like to follow it.
Man, do you ever sleep, eat or go to the toilet?
How can you produce such a quantity of awesome content (and so well written to boot) almost daily?
Amazing!!
If you look at declassified cold war target lists, Russia had airbases, navel yards, silos etc etc. Usa had cities.
That tells you something about who you are dealing with.
I don't care how well they perform, I am very uneasy on the very concept of private armies. The Americans started the modern version of it, with their unique corporate style, but I am firmly against it. The last thing we need is a return to the Medieval style Barons and their private armies, vying for control and status.
I agree. And now Wagner has popularized it so much that everyone and their grandma wants their own private army. Not only do we see copy cats like 'Mozart' group in Ukraine but now Kadyrov has announced he wants his own PMC and even Gazprom is now beginning the creation of their own PMC forces...this isa dystopian development
Légion étrangère is de facto some kind of wagner(prisonners etc)..and nobody finds it anormal eventhough it is not private but the same concept..for info a few hundreds are in Odessa like uk SAS (350) are near Nikolaev.
Further proof of the failure of the “too big to fail” mil-industrial complexes to meet the needs of modern warfare minus nukes. I don’t think it’s dystopian. It seems practical and very logical. After Nord bombing, they need to protect their infrastructure interests. People willing to fight, like professional boxers, are not born with a silver spoon.
Russia will blow the ammo for sure before NATO/AFU steal it.
You can also bet the General Staff saw all this coming a mile away.
The turbulence in Moldova going on for some time has provided the General Staff with plenty of heads up to make certain contingencies regarding that huge ammunition depot in Transnistria.
Regrettably NATO and Western Alliance will not ever let this go. This is war now is going exactly what the West hoped it would.
Yes I do expect to see the most ugly side of the West finally expose itself to the entire world using every dirty trick to escalate the conflict.
And we all know it has become an existential fight for both sides with smaller nations gathered around like vultures waiting to feed on death and destruction that follows.
It looks like this is all shaping up to be a fight between a civilization that honors God and the one that does not who in fact despises good and wholesome things; for this alone they loathe Russia.
And the crazy thing the West doesn’t even understand for this reason they hate not only Russia but even their own citizens who honor God and respect good and wholesome living.
The West attacks all those who are not in agreement with their vile behavior and depraved ideologies.
Russians have ceded territory before, as in Kharkhiv & Kherson areas. So they can do it in Transnistria. Over there I would mine and blow the deposit up at the first serious sign of danger. Expect the unexpected, including paratroopers and what not. That depot, everyone is salivating for it.
With the deed done I would surrender the troops to Moldova.
Putin abrogated that treaty probably because for 10+ years there was no resolution from Moldova on the actual status of Transnistria (which was likely convenient for Moscow as well - better a frozen conflict than a sorted out maybe federated Moldova that would have led to a forced retreat of Russian troops. What I am puzzled by is the fact that the Russians kept that gold chest of ammunitions there for almost 30 years). A sort of mini Minsk. But in all honesty, by rights, Transnistria should stay with Moldova just as an exchange for the lost Bugeac, which is now part of the Odessa Oblast, that appendix on the Black Sea that pushes West. That is historical Moldovan/Romanian territory. Same way Donbas, Novorossiya are historical Russian territories.
As always, a well crafted and informative article, thank you.
Putin appeared relaxed and well balanced. He looked pretty healthy contrary to the Western propagandists. The man simply exudes wisdom and forethought.
When it come to Ukraine and in a more sane world, the family of nations should defend the oppressed. After exhausting peaceful means, military action becomes a necessary transition into a legitimate defensive war. For all to see, this is exactly what Putin is doing. After, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, the world understands what Putin is doing and supports him.
No, he's trying hard to win the invisible war that you don't see. The Ukraine, 'on the ground' war is just one tiny segment of the much larger proportioned civilizational hybrid 5gw war happening on a huge geopolitical and global scale.
Why did U.S. take 15 years in Vietnam ? Isn't U.S. a superpower?
How bout Korea? U.S. lost that one too. Any excuses on that one?
Is ukies were ''winning'' do you believe they would kidnap men on the street by force and send them as canon fodder into the meat grinder? Same mobilizing from 16 to up to 60+, even sick, elderly, women now....ukie ''winning'' needing to cry for more weapons on a daily basis..etc
Absolutely, my friend. God will guide.🦅
Also, I’d be a traitor to my own conscience if I did not applaud Russia and Vladimir Putin.
I will call him in my estimation the esteemed President of the Russian Empire.
For his admirable stance regarding what descent and good
And remember what the scripture thus says:
“All those who live Godly will suffer persecution”
Thank God for Vladimir Putin, General Staff and Russia.
ukie troll or strelkov 6th column
Oy vey. *facepalm*
Don't clog the servers here with that crap.
Calm down with that rabid and profane verbal diarrhea. This blog is a more highbrow space for discussing matters, not the typical internet sewer you come from. Go back to Stormfront or wherever you came from if you want to post like an angsty nerdraging 13 year old.
Love your updates. But do disagree with the opening statement that Putin’s speech included banal economic information. I just published a three part series on the ethnic and nationalistic factors that heavily influence a persons support of Russia versus the totalitarian imperialistic collective west. I examined why some Russians prefer neo-nazism over democracy. It hinges largely on generational trauma during Soviet Union and the to sudden transition in 1991 when communism collapsed, abandoning millions of Europeans in to chaos for 10 years. Putin stabilized it, but allowed oligarchy to thrive and regular people to live in comparable poverty.
Therefore the economic changes Putin proposed in his speech is to improve the lives of ordinary, working Russians and families. He offered housing subsidies and 20 percent wage increases for example. That would do a lot of good in US too. Human Resources are a major strength in war and economic security. Russians, Ukrainians, and Baltic people still living remember the Soviet trauma. It is crucial that The Russian government support its citizens or it will lose the war.
Bottom line, the speech did not leak military tactical plans but supported its people that it needs as well for long term victory.
The 5G oligarchs and their liberal children are probably not so happy about sharing the wealth. Russia is far from perfect but not the totalitarian regime of Soviet days either. If Russia loses the war and the woke NATO NWO takes over, humanity is doomed. Putin needs to clean the Russian swamp of deep state traitors.
where do you see Russia having a prospect of losing? Russia is winning easily and decimating the AFU with 10:1 kill ratios.
Yes and from +- march 15th till +- end of may, impossible for tanks due to weather..
Lets assume the largest number on Wagners ammo list is ak rounds.
10556. Thats 100 guys firing 100 rounds each per day.
If its 5.45x39 thats 5 crates @2160/crate. So this must be something bigger than just bullets.