Well, strap in to your seats, folks, things are heating up and we’re in for a wild ride. Putin’s big address came and went. And depending who you ask it was either a dud or full of eerie portent. The speech mostly focused on banal domestic and economic matters, hardly mentioning the SMO—at least not with the fiery rhetoric some of us expected.
Feb 23, 2023·edited Feb 23, 2023Liked by Simplicius
If Ukraine & Moldova go into Transnistria it's going to be a total cluster fudge. Which in no way means they won't do it. There is no Russia is going to let that ammo dump get captured. Even if they don't manage to blow it in time (unlikely) they will hammer it with missiles before they let Ukraine get their hands on it. I don't even want to what an explosion that big would look like.
The military of the PMR is obviously small but its roughly the same size as Moldova's and unlike Moldova it actually has tanks. Moldova has more than twice as many trained reservists though circa 58k to 24k.This the link below describe its military if you scroll towards the bottom. It's interesting. Obviously they would be in terrible strategic situation if Moldova and Ukraine attacked simultaneously but it may not be a cake walk like they expect. I hope it doesn't happen.
I'd be interested in knowing what the average citizen of the various Rus Federation Republics thought of Putin's speech. If it helped to consolidate unity of purpose and national/societal cohesion for the tough fight ahead then it was a success.
I pray that the squabbling between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership is more maskirovka psyops but I guess we won't know.
And while the world was focused on Putin's speech, Wang Yi met with Putin, Lavrov and Patrushev. My guess is that China knows it's proposal for a negotiated end to the SMO will be rejected or sabotaged by the West but they want to show the Global South that it is D.C. and NATO that's hellbent on aggression and destruction of any nation which rejects it's "rules based order" hegemony.
It's also a clever way to encourage the some European nations to stand up to D.C. and start to realign their foreign policies that benefit their own people instead of the Washington Warmongering Cabal.
Putin's ambiguity regarding the red line when Russia will resort to nukes is a sound strategy. If Russia launches a first strike it should come as a complete surprise to the Deep State so they won't have enough time to scuttle off to their bunkers while us civilians end up vaporized. It would serve as a credible deterrent.
Everything you say is very likely and it shows a great understanding of the situation. As you say, this is the Rand script. For the nuclear provocation Russia will probably just respond by changing its nuclear doctrine. One of the pilars of the Russian policy is not to react to provocations in a simetrical way. Concerning Transnistria, they already successfully fought back an US led invation in 1997, which was an epic episode remembered by all in Russia. Maybe they will be able to keep the ground. I cant see how Russia could help them other than a very risky sea landing together with a parachute operation. Looks like there will be at least another long year of war. In the meantime, rumors about a gold based sino-russian currency seem widely unfounded.
Vlad just runs rings around his Western counterparts without even trying.. He absolutely was aware that FJB was going to address NATO/the West from Warsaw AFTER his own speech, and that an army of speechwriters with prepared ripostes to any hint of Russian belligerence were waiting....
And he gave them nothing....
Just that subtle hint of the mailed fist, ready if needed. Sun Tzu would nod his head, recognising a true student of his words.
There is hope still alive in this world. I bet his bodyguards are truly earning their keep.
I like Moldova, winding roads hills and farmland . Chisinau spoke Russian the last time I was there , and the people were friendly. I hitch hiked thru Transnistria cosa nostra { LOL } and got hit up for 15 bucks on the way in and on the way out. That Americano pass port will do it to you everytime - lol On that last stretch of hiway right before the Ukie check point, the local cop got the driver of my ride for 5 bucks. I made off like I was asleep , so he couldn't see my pass port - lol. I never felt threatened and it looked like Transnistria never messes with the Moldovan side much, but now that the EU has the Sandu Regime in power, we can figure on some fireworks. A few hypersonics where the Ukies congregate should give them a Hint. So much for giving Moldova all that discounted gaz for all those decades. The West has No Respect.
Agreed, the USA will use is well published and understood chaos playbook, and Russia will use its tactics and methods to defend against such actions and achieve its goals. One side plays dirty with no honor, the other side plays largely clean with honor and dignity. This is a spiritual war, one side fighting to tyrannize and control the world, the other to defend human and state sovereignty, free choice. Its a world war. Russia is prepared to further escalate as the West plays new dirty tricks. My guess is Ukraine is in for a rude surprise should it try to invade Transnistria. The West has telegraphed almost all its actions in advance. Russia does not.
I don't care how well they perform, I am very uneasy on the very concept of private armies. The Americans started the modern version of it, with their unique corporate style, but I am firmly against it. The last thing we need is a return to the Medieval style Barons and their private armies, vying for control and status.
Russia will blow the ammo for sure before NATO/AFU steal it.
You can also bet the General Staff saw all this coming a mile away.
The turbulence in Moldova going on for some time has provided the General Staff with plenty of heads up to make certain contingencies regarding that huge ammunition depot in Transnistria.
Regrettably NATO and Western Alliance will not ever let this go. This is war now is going exactly what the West hoped it would.
Yes I do expect to see the most ugly side of the West finally expose itself to the entire world using every dirty trick to escalate the conflict.
And we all know it has become an existential fight for both sides with smaller nations gathered around like vultures waiting to feed on death and destruction that follows.
It looks like this is all shaping up to be a fight between a civilization that honors God and the one that does not who in fact despises good and wholesome things; for this alone they loathe Russia.
And the crazy thing the West doesn’t even understand for this reason they hate not only Russia but even their own citizens who honor God and respect good and wholesome living.
The West attacks all those who are not in agreement with their vile behavior and depraved ideologies.
Russians have ceded territory before, as in Kharkhiv & Kherson areas. So they can do it in Transnistria. Over there I would mine and blow the deposit up at the first serious sign of danger. Expect the unexpected, including paratroopers and what not. That depot, everyone is salivating for it.
With the deed done I would surrender the troops to Moldova.
Putin abrogated that treaty probably because for 10+ years there was no resolution from Moldova on the actual status of Transnistria (which was likely convenient for Moscow as well - better a frozen conflict than a sorted out maybe federated Moldova that would have led to a forced retreat of Russian troops. What I am puzzled by is the fact that the Russians kept that gold chest of ammunitions there for almost 30 years). A sort of mini Minsk. But in all honesty, by rights, Transnistria should stay with Moldova just as an exchange for the lost Bugeac, which is now part of the Odessa Oblast, that appendix on the Black Sea that pushes West. That is historical Moldovan/Romanian territory. Same way Donbas, Novorossiya are historical Russian territories.
As always, a well crafted and informative article, thank you.
Putin appeared relaxed and well balanced. He looked pretty healthy contrary to the Western propagandists. The man simply exudes wisdom and forethought.
When it come to Ukraine and in a more sane world, the family of nations should defend the oppressed. After exhausting peaceful means, military action becomes a necessary transition into a legitimate defensive war. For all to see, this is exactly what Putin is doing. After, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, the world understands what Putin is doing and supports him.
Love your updates. But do disagree with the opening statement that Putin’s speech included banal economic information. I just published a three part series on the ethnic and nationalistic factors that heavily influence a persons support of Russia versus the totalitarian imperialistic collective west. I examined why some Russians prefer neo-nazism over democracy. It hinges largely on generational trauma during Soviet Union and the to sudden transition in 1991 when communism collapsed, abandoning millions of Europeans in to chaos for 10 years. Putin stabilized it, but allowed oligarchy to thrive and regular people to live in comparable poverty.
Therefore the economic changes Putin proposed in his speech is to improve the lives of ordinary, working Russians and families. He offered housing subsidies and 20 percent wage increases for example. That would do a lot of good in US too. Human Resources are a major strength in war and economic security. Russians, Ukrainians, and Baltic people still living remember the Soviet trauma. It is crucial that The Russian government support its citizens or it will lose the war.
Bottom line, the speech did not leak military tactical plans but supported its people that it needs as well for long term victory.
The 5G oligarchs and their liberal children are probably not so happy about sharing the wealth. Russia is far from perfect but not the totalitarian regime of Soviet days either. If Russia loses the war and the woke NATO NWO takes over, humanity is doomed. Putin needs to clean the Russian swamp of deep state traitors.
If Ukraine & Moldova go into Transnistria it's going to be a total cluster fudge. Which in no way means they won't do it. There is no Russia is going to let that ammo dump get captured. Even if they don't manage to blow it in time (unlikely) they will hammer it with missiles before they let Ukraine get their hands on it. I don't even want to what an explosion that big would look like.
The military of the PMR is obviously small but its roughly the same size as Moldova's and unlike Moldova it actually has tanks. Moldova has more than twice as many trained reservists though circa 58k to 24k.This the link below describe its military if you scroll towards the bottom. It's interesting. Obviously they would be in terrible strategic situation if Moldova and Ukraine attacked simultaneously but it may not be a cake walk like they expect. I hope it doesn't happen.
https://tanks-encyclopedia.com/pridnestrovian-moldavian-republic-transnistria/
I'd be interested in knowing what the average citizen of the various Rus Federation Republics thought of Putin's speech. If it helped to consolidate unity of purpose and national/societal cohesion for the tough fight ahead then it was a success.
I pray that the squabbling between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership is more maskirovka psyops but I guess we won't know.
And while the world was focused on Putin's speech, Wang Yi met with Putin, Lavrov and Patrushev. My guess is that China knows it's proposal for a negotiated end to the SMO will be rejected or sabotaged by the West but they want to show the Global South that it is D.C. and NATO that's hellbent on aggression and destruction of any nation which rejects it's "rules based order" hegemony.
It's also a clever way to encourage the some European nations to stand up to D.C. and start to realign their foreign policies that benefit their own people instead of the Washington Warmongering Cabal.
Putin's ambiguity regarding the red line when Russia will resort to nukes is a sound strategy. If Russia launches a first strike it should come as a complete surprise to the Deep State so they won't have enough time to scuttle off to their bunkers while us civilians end up vaporized. It would serve as a credible deterrent.
Everything you say is very likely and it shows a great understanding of the situation. As you say, this is the Rand script. For the nuclear provocation Russia will probably just respond by changing its nuclear doctrine. One of the pilars of the Russian policy is not to react to provocations in a simetrical way. Concerning Transnistria, they already successfully fought back an US led invation in 1997, which was an epic episode remembered by all in Russia. Maybe they will be able to keep the ground. I cant see how Russia could help them other than a very risky sea landing together with a parachute operation. Looks like there will be at least another long year of war. In the meantime, rumors about a gold based sino-russian currency seem widely unfounded.
Vlad just runs rings around his Western counterparts without even trying.. He absolutely was aware that FJB was going to address NATO/the West from Warsaw AFTER his own speech, and that an army of speechwriters with prepared ripostes to any hint of Russian belligerence were waiting....
And he gave them nothing....
Just that subtle hint of the mailed fist, ready if needed. Sun Tzu would nod his head, recognising a true student of his words.
There is hope still alive in this world. I bet his bodyguards are truly earning their keep.
I like Moldova, winding roads hills and farmland . Chisinau spoke Russian the last time I was there , and the people were friendly. I hitch hiked thru Transnistria cosa nostra { LOL } and got hit up for 15 bucks on the way in and on the way out. That Americano pass port will do it to you everytime - lol On that last stretch of hiway right before the Ukie check point, the local cop got the driver of my ride for 5 bucks. I made off like I was asleep , so he couldn't see my pass port - lol. I never felt threatened and it looked like Transnistria never messes with the Moldovan side much, but now that the EU has the Sandu Regime in power, we can figure on some fireworks. A few hypersonics where the Ukies congregate should give them a Hint. So much for giving Moldova all that discounted gaz for all those decades. The West has No Respect.
Agreed, the USA will use is well published and understood chaos playbook, and Russia will use its tactics and methods to defend against such actions and achieve its goals. One side plays dirty with no honor, the other side plays largely clean with honor and dignity. This is a spiritual war, one side fighting to tyrannize and control the world, the other to defend human and state sovereignty, free choice. Its a world war. Russia is prepared to further escalate as the West plays new dirty tricks. My guess is Ukraine is in for a rude surprise should it try to invade Transnistria. The West has telegraphed almost all its actions in advance. Russia does not.
Man, do you ever sleep, eat or go to the toilet?
How can you produce such a quantity of awesome content (and so well written to boot) almost daily?
Amazing!!
If you look at declassified cold war target lists, Russia had airbases, navel yards, silos etc etc. Usa had cities.
That tells you something about who you are dealing with.
I don't care how well they perform, I am very uneasy on the very concept of private armies. The Americans started the modern version of it, with their unique corporate style, but I am firmly against it. The last thing we need is a return to the Medieval style Barons and their private armies, vying for control and status.
Russia will blow the ammo for sure before NATO/AFU steal it.
You can also bet the General Staff saw all this coming a mile away.
The turbulence in Moldova going on for some time has provided the General Staff with plenty of heads up to make certain contingencies regarding that huge ammunition depot in Transnistria.
Regrettably NATO and Western Alliance will not ever let this go. This is war now is going exactly what the West hoped it would.
Yes I do expect to see the most ugly side of the West finally expose itself to the entire world using every dirty trick to escalate the conflict.
And we all know it has become an existential fight for both sides with smaller nations gathered around like vultures waiting to feed on death and destruction that follows.
It looks like this is all shaping up to be a fight between a civilization that honors God and the one that does not who in fact despises good and wholesome things; for this alone they loathe Russia.
And the crazy thing the West doesn’t even understand for this reason they hate not only Russia but even their own citizens who honor God and respect good and wholesome living.
The West attacks all those who are not in agreement with their vile behavior and depraved ideologies.
Russians have ceded territory before, as in Kharkhiv & Kherson areas. So they can do it in Transnistria. Over there I would mine and blow the deposit up at the first serious sign of danger. Expect the unexpected, including paratroopers and what not. That depot, everyone is salivating for it.
With the deed done I would surrender the troops to Moldova.
Putin abrogated that treaty probably because for 10+ years there was no resolution from Moldova on the actual status of Transnistria (which was likely convenient for Moscow as well - better a frozen conflict than a sorted out maybe federated Moldova that would have led to a forced retreat of Russian troops. What I am puzzled by is the fact that the Russians kept that gold chest of ammunitions there for almost 30 years). A sort of mini Minsk. But in all honesty, by rights, Transnistria should stay with Moldova just as an exchange for the lost Bugeac, which is now part of the Odessa Oblast, that appendix on the Black Sea that pushes West. That is historical Moldovan/Romanian territory. Same way Donbas, Novorossiya are historical Russian territories.
As always, a well crafted and informative article, thank you.
Putin appeared relaxed and well balanced. He looked pretty healthy contrary to the Western propagandists. The man simply exudes wisdom and forethought.
When it come to Ukraine and in a more sane world, the family of nations should defend the oppressed. After exhausting peaceful means, military action becomes a necessary transition into a legitimate defensive war. For all to see, this is exactly what Putin is doing. After, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, the world understands what Putin is doing and supports him.
Also, I’d be a traitor to my own conscience if I did not applaud Russia and Vladimir Putin.
I will call him in my estimation the esteemed President of the Russian Empire.
For his admirable stance regarding what descent and good
And remember what the scripture thus says:
“All those who live Godly will suffer persecution”
Thank God for Vladimir Putin, General Staff and Russia.
Love your updates. But do disagree with the opening statement that Putin’s speech included banal economic information. I just published a three part series on the ethnic and nationalistic factors that heavily influence a persons support of Russia versus the totalitarian imperialistic collective west. I examined why some Russians prefer neo-nazism over democracy. It hinges largely on generational trauma during Soviet Union and the to sudden transition in 1991 when communism collapsed, abandoning millions of Europeans in to chaos for 10 years. Putin stabilized it, but allowed oligarchy to thrive and regular people to live in comparable poverty.
Therefore the economic changes Putin proposed in his speech is to improve the lives of ordinary, working Russians and families. He offered housing subsidies and 20 percent wage increases for example. That would do a lot of good in US too. Human Resources are a major strength in war and economic security. Russians, Ukrainians, and Baltic people still living remember the Soviet trauma. It is crucial that The Russian government support its citizens or it will lose the war.
Bottom line, the speech did not leak military tactical plans but supported its people that it needs as well for long term victory.
The 5G oligarchs and their liberal children are probably not so happy about sharing the wealth. Russia is far from perfect but not the totalitarian regime of Soviet days either. If Russia loses the war and the woke NATO NWO takes over, humanity is doomed. Putin needs to clean the Russian swamp of deep state traitors.
Lets assume the largest number on Wagners ammo list is ak rounds.
10556. Thats 100 guys firing 100 rounds each per day.
If its 5.45x39 thats 5 crates @2160/crate. So this must be something bigger than just bullets.