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19 Febuary 2024 FTNATO Dead End Gulch

‘Nato has no choice but to strengthen it’s bulwarks against Putin’

https://www.ft.com/content/9828c5c5-2568-47ce-8253-a2d3a7cc9eba

Ungainly language -The sea faring metaphor a comforting reminder of more glorious times, little old lady NATO now plays the victim of the mighty Putin, all powerful yet who single handedly moves his great country into disaster after catastrophe –

‘With no checks on his capacity to make fatal mistakes, an ageing Russian ruler surrounded by sycophants may embark on even more reckless moves in coming year’s’

This sounds like an exact description of the US President, apart from the Russian bit – especially as the author admits that the RF has/is winning the Ukraine war – whereas no one thinks Biden can win either the Ukraine war, or the Gaza war, or the China war, or the Iran war, or even the so called Houthi (Ansar Allah) war, but maybe might win the Haiti war with the help of the 30 Kenyan policeman they requested, if the Kenyan judge lets them go (unlikely)

The author is merely imitating VdL and talking up a forlorn and factfree and unlikely EUNATO re armaments plot

The one real world reason given for all this talk is how essential it is for NATO to defend the eternally threatened Baltics under Article 5 – the Latvia government famously used to claim in case of a RF invasion Latvia would survive for ‘twelve minutes’ –Less today or tomorrow

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nato-baltic-frontline-bunkers-anti-tank-mines-russia-zbdqk3xlv

‘Kaja Kallas, the prime minister of Estonia, said that Europe must boost its defenses “because what really provokes an aggressor is weakness.” Then, Mr. Putin might risk attacking a country like hers in an attempt to fracture NATO. “But if we do more for our defense, it will act as a deterrent. People around Putin would say that, you know, you can’t win. Don’t take this up.”

‘As Putin threatens, despair and hedging in Europe’, NYT 18 Febuary

https://archive.is/565YW

This is the level of childish language used to justify re armament, it is not surprising that NATO can do nothing actually to re arm

Much attention paid to Denmark’s publicity seeking – an arms donation announcement made to appear current in fact occurred last MSC and has long since been completed

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1759194632649310447

The MSC Report is the only instance of realism, a welcome reminder that it is only the EU Bureautrash and politicians who are war mongers, as per this article from the UK Guardian, an otherwise ruling class propaganda outfit, as per – even! – Politico

Not that the MSC is pro Russia, it’s full of US slang and weasel talk ‘To alleviate the isolation that Russia has experienced since its invasion of Ukraine’, ‘Russia’s weaponization of Europe’s energy dependency’

The EUUS peoples are not worried about Russia and do not want war – the EUUS ruling class pretends to be worried and does

BRICS nations are positive and optimistic, EUUS ‘deeply’ pessimistic and negative

“If current trends continue, the US and its allies risk losing the blame game in the global court of public opinion, being branded the culprits of the erosion of a cooperative international order and of a lack of effort to ensure more mutually beneficial outcomes.”

“..the global perception of the strength of the community of liberal democracies depends on Ukraine prevailing over Russian revisionism.”

https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2024/

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-no-longer-top-threat-germany-g7-munich-security-conference-concern-ukraine-war-fades/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/12/national-self-interest-stymying-global-cooperation-report-finds-munich-security-conference

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/02/17/german-ukraine-ammo-factory-construction-begins-200k-rounds-annually/

https://archive.is/565YW

“And last Monday, groundbreaking began for a future munitions factory at a Rheinmetall industrial complex in the northern German town of Unterluss, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in attendance.

https://mb.com.ph/2024/2/18/germany-s-rheinmetall-to-produce-munitions-in-ukraine

“This factory in 2025 will start producing NATO's standard 155-millimetre shells, used in numerous artillery systems, with an eventual output of 200,000 shells a year.”

Annual production good for max of ten days expenditure in one country….eventually – for NATO this is a real accomplishment – wait till they start thinking of re arming for full scale war in several countries as their propaganda proclaims they ‘must’

Only a couple very feeble complaints at the non confiscation of CBR assets

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I watched snippets of the so-called 'Munich Security Conference'... it was nothing more than a bunch of snivelling out of touch 'Elite' engaged in Hopium & Copium shenanigans to try & continue justifying their grift worth hundreds of billions of USD & Euros. As Project Ukraine is crushed decisively on the battlefield, the Grift will no doubt continue for a while still; though at this point all of said money is really just going toward bribing the various middlemen, bureaucrats, etc. Tragedy!

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3rd in the comments :{ Now I know how Joe Biden feels after he shits his diaper.

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As with all the other cities to fall, is it strategically unimportant too? Eventually, all of Ukraine will be 'strategically unimportant'.

A Skeptic War Reports

https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-02-19

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Why would it be a problem if Putin were honestly trying to negotiate with the West/Ukraine?

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Make Odesa Odessa again, in Ukraine oblast.

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Thanks Simplicius, great report as always! One small correction: the scum sporting the X moniker @NyaVikingen is not Ukrainian, but Swedish or Danish, obviouosly from the region of Scania.

#ZаРодину!

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Fun seeing the nafoists starting to realize that their hero Zelenskiiyiyiyiyyyyyiiii is nothing but a cheap huckster. They raved about his "leadership" when in fact it was a bunch of adolescent posturing and third-rate tinhorn dictator-ing. I mean a grown man going around the world meeting world leaders whilst wearing a t-shirt? Flipping off Russia and taking selfies? Who but 13 year olds are impressed by this act?

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founding

I applaud the new ideograph, it's got a great Rorschach/Man in the Moon element to it: just close enough to a face to register...

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The UKE prisoner in the first video said that there were Canadians with him. I've seen no news here about Canada engaging in conflict in Ukraine. Maybe they were mercenaries. If not I regret seeing Can. forces where they should not have been involved and have no business to be. Maybe nobody even noticed the prisoner said "Canadians" except for me but it sure gave me a shock. I'm not happy about it but I can't change foreign policy. Notice how our governments lead us into things we don't want or agree with all the time. They are the useless eaters that we are much better off without.

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founding

Excellent Article! Big Thanks!!

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Curious- while a psychological victory, and a pr victory, and great for people who were shelled from Avdeevka, does this victory really matter? Bahkmut fell, and almost a year later not much has changed in the front lines, and 2,000 men lost is horrific, but UKR already needed to raise 500,000. So I hate to say it, but the bigger impact may be about EU or USA levels of support, or even more important, internal political factions in Ukraine- including military. But in terms of the battlefield, I’m not sure it matters very Mitch, except perhaps as a sign of momentum…

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Wow seems like things are speeding up... And again the church is still shining. Amazing. I can't believe what the feeling must be for this guy waiting this out for 10 years. Unbelievable.

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Your work is always excellent, but I do think this posting is one of your best, thank you.

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The guy at the end moved me to tears. He seems genuine in his emotion. Speaking of, did y'all see the video from 2015 what the residents of Avdyevka thought of Ukraine?

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Feb 19·edited Feb 19

Great sitrep! Thanks.

I enjoyed the video with Arestovich saying he believes Putin, commenting that in Putin's mind this is a civil war between two Russian peoples. Arestovich may be scum, but he's certainly agile scum with great skill using genuine insights to support whatever he's trying to sell you.

You're also spot on when you write that Putin is "allowing his principled faculties of reason to overpower his moral sentimentality [...] in doing what he knows must be done."

I've been living in or travelling to Russia for many years, and in all that time I've seen how in truth ethnic Russians living in Russia and ethnic Russians living in Ukraine have no conception of themselves as other than one and the same people. Given that 90% of the population of "Ukraine" in most regions are ethnic Russians, and well over 95% in the regions where the conflict is being fought, it is really true that most of the people in harm's way are Russians, not the minority quasi-Russians in the far West who have adopted a (largely fake) "Ukrainian" ethnic identity.

It is very difficult to find a Russian speaking person in Ukraine who does not have a relative of some sort living in Russia. Even the leadership in Kiev is deeply integrated with Russia: Yermak's parents are Russians living in Russia, Podolyak's brother is a Russian living in Russia, and Sirsky's parents and brother live in Russia. They all, including Zelensky and every other would-be candidate for the presidency, are native Russian speakers. There's no such thing as an "ethnic Ukrainian" anywhere to be found in that bunch.

That's been on everybody's mind in Russia since 2014 and especially since the start of the conflict. It's why Russia has had to "go slow" in military operations. Russia could not carpet bomb cities the way the US or Israel do in the Middle East, because doing so would kill the Russians that Russia invaded to save. (It would also kill masses of non-Russian civilians, which is not the Russian way of war.)

One cause of the rage at the US among ordinary people in Russia is precisely that they blame the US and the EU for ginning up a destructive war on Russia's border that has killed so many ethnic Russians. People in Russia are well aware that many of the 500,000 people who have been killed or incapacitated in Kiev's army are ethnic Russians. Many of them had no choice but to be pushed into the fight, and many were brain-washed by eight years of lies, at which the Kiev regime is highly adept. But they're still Russians and more and more Russians here hate the US for making that happen.

That's also why you see so much more humanity from the Russian side in this conflict than from the nazi side. For Kiev the combatants are a different race on both sides - they see the ethnic Russians they grind up as cannon fodder, a useful way to eliminate undesirables while striking the enemy. For Russia the combatants on both sides are kin. It is only the leadership in Kiev, and the minority who are nazis or foreign killers that truly anger the Russians.

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