321 Comments

If the AFU have gotten to the point where they no longer have *enough men* to prevent the Russians from simply 'walking in,' that means this War is far closer to being 'Over' than many expected just a few weeks prior. It has been truly astonishing to see the Carnage & overall rate of Attrition & Decay!

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"It has been truly astonishing to see the Carnage & overall rate of Attrition & Decay!"

You think this is astonishing - wait until the final moments of the West.

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Take for example the implosion of the USA, and no I am not being hyperbolic for its own sake. As the Cloward-Piven Strategy gains more traction. In specific locales, things are beginning to spin and the more they do the closer we are to a WROL situation. In regard to Ukraine, it has been painfully obvious from the get go that the nation and people have been used as an expendable battering ram. Heck, that pundit in the above video pretty came right out and said it. While it is sad, lessons will be learned. In this case the lesson is well defined in recent history: If you take the Poison Cookie and let Sticky Vicky (or her equivalent) in the door, you can expect to be destroyed first from the inside and then altogether….

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"Beware of fat American ladies bearing gifts" ?

Stranger Danger

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It’s legendary at this point….

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There's a reason she's known as the War-Sow in these parts.... Carnage always follows in her wake.

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How dare you insult a Pig with Noodlemann!

A sow is an honourable animal.

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Keeping the American People divided, and Political Power under control inside DC, is the full on goal for the Parasite that bleeds America dry.\

Parasite? Those of whom we may not speak.

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Filed under: Terrible Few & Fatted Calf……

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The Ukrainians are about to conscript the general population so I doubt the AFU will run out so quickly, but there's no way around the fact they don't have able bodies. They're sending women, the old and the infirm out there for Christ's sake.

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Are you waiting for the Great Movement, personified by Zelensky pinching the cheek of some bewildered young teen as he hands him a wooden rifle to sacrifice for the greater good of Northern Israel?

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I wonder if there will be any left honestly. The conscription itself will probably prompt refusal and the spectacle of the Ukrainians turning on their own.

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First, the old men, then women, next young boys, finally, girls. They well into old men.

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And poor Voha the Downie. Worry about him every day.

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I think the prior contingent of the unwilling got all of the wooden rifles, probably will be going with the last of the shovels at this juncture.

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deletedFeb 14
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From what I have read, they send them and with a few weapons and then never resupply them. Almost as if the goal is to kill them off rather than to win a war. Although given they only get something like 3 weeks of training tops, they are dead man walking anyway.

There was one article I read where the lifespan of their new recruits was 12 hours...

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deletedFeb 14
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Unless Russia has an ace up its sleeve, the Ukrainians can hold out longer than you think if they're willing to take the losses. Their FPV, mining, and other tactics have proven thus far to be enough to prevent major breakthroughs. And there's a lot of territory between the current front and Kiev/the Dnieper. Ukraine is not going to turn the tide, but it could be a slow grind depending on how much funding we give them and how fully they want to lean into mobilization.

Stop listening to the Duran/McGregor/Ritter. They are directionally correct but have been continuously wrong about the imminent collapse of the front. McGregor said last winter that Russia was going to do a multiple large arrow offensive that would end the war by summer.

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I think the Russians will want to minimize causalities, and have been successful in grinding the Ukies down. It serves a political purpose. When the Ukies do surrender/negociate an end, the Russian will be in a position of the high ground and the Ukies best men lost. So a possible "insurrgency" will be minimized. Russians remember the post war period where there was a low grade Ukrainian inssurgancy that took a decade to finally surpress.

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"the Ukrainians can hold out longer than you think if they're willing to take the losses"

"depending on how much funding we give them"

Grim.

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Re: Duran/McGregor/Ritter, I think all of them forget Russia wants the fewest number of causalities possible. The best way to realize that is a slow grind, waiting for the remaining soldiers to inevitably turn on Kiev. Russia's goal is to rebuild Ukraine, the more people left alive to assist in that effort the better.

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deletedFeb 14
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VERY good point, that US/NATO so carefully trained and planned insurgency may happen in the EU not in Ukraine.

Surprise!!!!

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That would be beautiful to see, making it another major backlash of every single evil action the west took. I love to see karma in action!

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The Russians are completely destroying a narrow area around the whole front. The energy infrastructure is damaged not destroyed. The railroads are mostly intact although military trains are intact.

The Russians know they will be responsible for rebuilding. So I don’t see any large scale offensives until Ukraine collapses

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Yes, this is has always been a very controlled engagement. In the beginning it was clear every effort was being made by Russia to keep key infrastructure intact. I think initially Russia thought Ukraine would come to its senses, that the people would want peace.

Later they came to realize that 10 years of heavy indoctrination made their hope of a peaceful solution impossible. The Ukraine people had been taught to hate. I saw some of their school text books, they were horrific, the children were being taught that Russians were basically inhuman spawns of Hell. And here we are.

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The thing that stops any truly rapid advance by Russia, or collapse by Ukraine, is that the Russians simply don't have much mechanized capacity. Not enough trucks, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, etc.

It's the same reason why pundits and politicians hysterically saying "What if Russia turns their eyes on Poland or the Baltics next!" is such a sad joke. Russia lost most of their ability to conduct sustained maneuver warfare in the first 3-4 months of this war.

Victory or defeat, it's going to move slower than people think.

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We've been hearing these confident predictions of imminent victory for almost two years now.

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Feb 15·edited Feb 15

What's a bit new now is their hateful propaganda fake news using Syrskyi and a babushka who listen to calls, or visits to family. How cheap is that? And Simplicus trying to sell it?

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Feb 15·edited Feb 15

Because they all expect Russia's big arrow moves, which never happening. It doesn't change the fact that Russia is winning. It's same Syria all over again. War was basically won when Russia entered stage but it took 5 years before everybody accepted that ISIS lost. Ukraine lost 2 years ago, it's just long, boring, arduous cleanup. Everything else is emotional rollercoaster for normies.

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Since fighting is still ongoing, he'll aircraft are getting shot down over Belgorod and ships sunk in Crimea, it's not over.

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Battle for Berlin costed USSR 375k casualties. Yet everybody knew the war was over by the late 1943. But you should keep with this sweet sweet cope.

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I am not the one coping, but tell yourself that if it makes you feel better.

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Battle of Stalingrad followed by the Battle of Kursk. Both were big defeats for the Germans in 1945, but still took two more years to conclude the war.

Similar situation appears to be happening here.

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Dammit!! 2nd in the comments. Story of my life.

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I admire a person who sets high goals for themselves like you. You can and you will make it, Billy. Follow your dreams, man. lol

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Sadly though…you do not appear to be second or even third….ah well better luck nextyme

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Now, now, don't be discouraged; set multiple goals, one is bound to be realized. For example, about going with win, place or show instead?

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founding

Onward to Victory my friends!

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UUURRRRRRAAAAAAAHHHH

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And as for the Handlers in the rear: Last in, First Out!!

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founding

It appears songs and poems may be all that is left of a generation, let us say a prayer for the dead, regardless of orientation.

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yes it is important to remember when ever the number of casualties is mentioned that we are talking about what used to people with mothers and fathers, brothers and sisters, often wives and children. a whole generation of Ukrainian men will be gone.

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Slavs killing slavs with Anglo-Saxons enjoying the show :(

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Nuland, Blinken, Sullivan, Zelensky are not Anglo-Saxons. Nor are the controllers of Blackrock and others intending to profit from the destruction of Ukraine.

It is an entirely different tribe that has fostered this killing of slavs and this ethnic cleansing of Ukraine attempted for their own benefit.

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Yep, the same blood sucking, parasitical, evil tribe that has always caused trouble wherever it wanders. The Wandering Who.

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Feb 14·edited Feb 14

Its not even a tribe. They fight each other a lot. All of the problems come from a handful of families from Anglo-Dutch and Austro-Hungarian origins who, having made more money than actual empires and states started dreaming up all sorts of vanity projects.

Project Ukraine is yet another one of them. Zionism was one of the early trials

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Some Italians are in that lot you are describing. I see the Zionists as one of their Franchise efforts.

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Forgot about the OG ones indeed! The first ever private central bankers.

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Most Jews are just LARPers brainwashed by their Talmud - a genocidal document whose teachings need to be eradicated.

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Yes, it's a zionist project imo. Most of the worst zionists ruling Israel came from this region as well.

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Onward to New Khazaria?

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An important distinction.

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It is a Satanic cult more than a tribe IMO, and they and their willing minions are having a banner year, see Gaza for details.

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Anglo Saxons and West Europeans paying for Slavs to kill each other in gladiatorial games, for their amusement. It's sickening.

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Nazi and Zionist are two wings of the same genocidal bird. Israel and CIA did 911.

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Israel's current belligerence has not yet played out in full. I wonder if they have truly considered the long term consequences of killing everyone in their neighborhood?

Do other Nuclear Powers have a strategy to stop Israeli nukes from getting off the ground? Does Iran already have the bomb?

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Pakistan has said back in the day they will nuke Israel if Israel attacks Iran and Iran although probably still not nuclear has enough missiles to make Israel a memory.

Israel used nuclear weapons in Syria and in Lebanon. the locals are well aware of their problematic nutcase neighbor.

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They don't seem to realise once they've eradicated the Palestinians, it will be open season on Israel itself.

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It is amazing that short term goals, like keeping Netanyahu out of prison, soothing Ultra-Orthodox anger, and seeking Revenge, trumps any thought of their future.

Killing Palestinians brings them closer and closer every day to bloody conflict with stronger Muslims, in overwhelming numbers.

If their God didn't intervene in their plight in Europe, how can any of them be so sure that God is going to save them from retribution this time?

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Getting folks to kill one another has always been a favorite game of the oligarchy. The slaughter of 1914-18 was one of their best efforts - and its consequences reverberate down to the present day. The smartest jarhead who ever lived (Gen. Smedley Butler) even wrote a little book about their game in 1935, called "War is a Racket". It should be required reading for anyone entering a military recruitment office. The lie-machine managed to gaslight the entire populace of the present territory known as Ukraine in the space of three short decades. Most wars of the past 2-3 centuries have been run for the benefit of the bankstas behind the curtain (whom we are told to ignore).

The real irony is that the gaslighted are totally blind to the massive contradiction present in the narrative they've been sold. One the one hand, a new national identity was created. Maybe not out of whole cloth entirely but the thing advertised as Ukrainian nationalism now really only existed in the Galician area before 1991. On the other hand this new "nationalist" identity is also fine with being under the rule of foreign entities the Globo-Pedo Empire of Lies and globalist organizations like the EU, NATO all of the NGOs, etc. - whose global objective is the abolition of all nations to be mixed into a giant open-air slave-labor gulag for the benefit (a la "Hunger Games") of folks like Schwab, Soros, Gates, Bezos, et al. Any genuine nationalist (or patriot) should know that their real enemy are the above gang of oligarchs and their toadies. Yet it's the most extreme Banderite faction who have been most eager to kill and be killed on behalf of people like the disgusting creature in the video above, as she brags on about how lowly slav-zeks are killing one another.

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Not all Anglo-Saxons, not by a long shot.

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This has bothered me about the way the Russians are waging the war. Decapitation would be the easiest way to get rid of the Nazis, not destroying a generation of brainwashed commoners. Nuland took over the Ukraine by killing maybe 100 at Maiden. Russ is killing hundreds of thousands of regular people who don't want to serve. Why not hit the airport in Kiev that Nuland flies in and out of. If the Russ would hit the government, maybe the people would join the revolt. I think "it will be decided on the battlefield" is an agreed upon strategy protecting the elite on both sides. But, I except some Ukie CIA guy will eventually break the rules eventually anyway. Europe and the US can't afford to lose - it is a banker war.

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For Russia, Ukraine is the chess board, not one the pieces, Ukraine is just where the game is being played out. The pieces are NATO, UN, WHO, US, the UE itself, all of the EU member states, the global South, there are many, so the game could take a while.

The Russia strategy is to take our or capture as many of the pieces as possible. This is much like the 3 dimensional chess they always were going on about in StarTrek. www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGvlyJuXtLA

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deletedFeb 14
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Of course it isn't.

"Game" in this case is a metaphor, not an assumption of its level of seriousness. . As in the British Great Game.

That particular "Game" resulted in a series of unsuccessful wars for the British to control Afghanistan, Bukhara, and Turkey. (sound familiar?)

The British lost at all four wars — the First Anglo-Saxon War (1838), the First Anglo-Sikh War (1843), the Second Anglo-Sikh War (1848) and the Second Anglo-Afghan War (1878) — resulting in Russia taking control of several Khanates including Bukhara.

https://www.thoughtco.com/what-was-the-great-game-195341

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The Earth has always been a Graveyard. And Mankind isn't getting any brighter despite the greater efficiency of killing his fellow man.

Why are Ukrainians and Russians fighting each other? The Benefactors are in the back rooms counting the loot.

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founding
Feb 14Liked by Simplicius

Excellent Timely Update! Big Thanks!

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Simplicius, pardon my OT post, but Gonzalo Lira has a memorial page up on Find A Grave:

https://www.findagrave.com/memorial/263005222/gonzalo-%C3%A1ngel_quintilio_lira-l%C3%B3pez

If you can please make your readers aware of it and ask them to leave a flower and condolences for the Lira family. Thank you. There are just two flowers there right now, and one of them is mine. So it would be great if more people could drop by the page and express their condolences.

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Thanks for letting me know. Just left a flower for Gonzalo.

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Thank you, Carlos. 🙏

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Thank for this. 🙏🏻

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Thanks. I've just added the ninth flower, so it looks like your message is spreading.

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Thank you, I'm glad to see people are leaving flowers and condolences. 👍🏻

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Sorry, you have been blocked. You are unable to access findagrave.com"

guess they don’t need Russian condolences. Well, whatever

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I am sorry, I did not know about that, I don't know why they would do that.

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Thank you, just left a flower, I hope everyone takes a moment to do so, I am sure it would mean a great deal to his family and friends

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I've been saying Zelensky and Syrsky are both Putin's agents helping him in denazification 😆

On a different note, the conspiracy theory that this war was a zionist project to depopulate Ukraine and control this region still seems very valid to me. And who knows if Putin helped design the Oct 7 trigger for end of Israel as a retaliation...on his birthday of course 😉

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I don't think it's a conspiracy theory. Zelensky said it out loud and on tape several times, suggesting building an "ersatz Israel" in Ukraine.

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Yes, a European beachhead in the zionist war to rule the world.

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Ukraine was a plum. Russia is the mother lode.

I believe that the primary reason the Senate wants to "save democracy" in Ukraine is cuz the Behemoth Investors have billions of borrowed dollars tied up there. A collapse will cost much more than that. Same goes for Xi imploding the domestic housing market. China won't be hurt by the dollar losses, BlackRock will be.

Romney is most definitely an investor in the fake hedge funds that are trying to buy everything so you can own nothing and be an unhappy slave.

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They don't care about loans getting repaid to U.S. tax dollars.

They care about their sons, daughters, and friends of donors getting $$$$ as consultants and board members at Ukrainian companies and U.S. DoD and DepState contractors.

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Very true. When it's over, they won't bother the Ukraine anymore. What hasn't already been looted won't be available

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Syrsky is just a plant, zelensky is a jew who hate nazis, not a plant thought.

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At first slowly then all at once.

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That quote you cite from Hemingway about how he went bankrupt has been swirling in my head for weeks—not just about Ukraine, but about the U.S. and the entire Western Empire, too.

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It's been doing the same in my head since the debacle of Kabul airport 2.5 years ago. I feel like we are all watching the western empire speed run the last days Rome. It's going to be wild watching all the people who memory holed Afghanistan deal with the crash that is coming all at once. As for me for now I'm going to enjoy the wine and orgies while watching Rome burn. Hail Bacchus.

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I was correct about the all along the FEBA push just wrong about the timing by several weeks. The change and resulting confusion in command has helped greatly. The massive troop concentration hit will also serve as another shock to rear areas. Russians do continue to take losses, so it's not easy street by any means.

I await the Russian Army's version of Inchon featuring the Black Sea Fleet and its Air Mobile forces to take Odessa.

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That would be an interesting development. Let's see.

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They have to take Odessa in order to isolate Ukraine. It's not even disputed at this point. Ukraine needs to be completely dismantled in order to show the USSA/NATO just what a bunch of delusional losers that the entire West is.

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I tend to agree. The RF put up with being poked at for quite a while, and now the agitators get the horns. Sadly the Ukrainian proxies are getting the brunt of it though. Another chapter in ‘What happened when you let the USA (& friends) lead you by the nose’.

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The question remains whether Russia has the stomach to do it.

Talk is cheap.

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I don't think it's a matter of "guts;" rather, it's how it fits in with the overall strategy.

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Well, take away Odessa and a rump Ukraine is much less viable against Russia.

However, Russia has little desire to fight in this war, escalating only when they have had no choice. The West, by contrast, ignores red line after Russian red line without blowback.

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Putin said that diplomacy is the way to conceal true intentions. But it's not going to be airborne to Odessa, Ukraine has to run out of people who are pro-war, then peace negotiations will be possible. Right now ukrainian population is strongly supoorting the war, they just want somebody else to fight it for somebody else's money. Welcome to Ukraine. So it's going to be brutal.

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Well, the Ukrainian strategy has been to sacrifice the more Russian-leaning segment of the population first.

And of course, the EU will deport refugees or convince them to leave. So that is another source of meat for the army. And then NATO will Send In The Poles!

Waiting for the Ukrainians to run out of bodies is a fool's game.

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What conflict are you watching?

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The one where Ukrainian bridges are still standing, the trains are still running, aircraft are still taking off, etc..

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Based on the past, they certainly do. See the Russian Great Patriotic War for details.

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I hope that you prove correct, but events to date unfortunately suggest otherwise.

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The war ran from 1941-1945. Russia lost something like 27 million people, much of that war was desperate, this war is a day at the beach compared to WW2.

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Nobody is arguing that. If Russia considers a west-aligned Ukraine an existential threat (and it should), it does not act like it.

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You have to remember that Russia is a different country since Putin is at the helm. Putin takes Sun Tsu and the Art of War very seriously. The effing West are still trying to figure out the nursery rhyme "Humpty Dumpty".

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I probably have more experience of Russia than most here.

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Feb 14·edited Feb 14

The Russia that exists now? I'm not doubting you, I'm just curious.

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Feb 14·edited Feb 14

Great write up as usual. What caught my eye is in the video of the FABS below the text "with Fab bombs going off on AFU positions:"

The church in front on the left side seems pretty much unharmed and shining..

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I noticed that gleaming untouched church too :)

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deletedFeb 14
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Thank you, there is a lot of new tech in play in the world. The US is using much of it on its own people IMO.

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deletedFeb 14
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My first reaction is to have a hard time feeling sorry for Azov troops, but yes, you are right. It is horrible to see even the Nazi duped regiments have their health and lives destroyed in defense of a corrupt regime.

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Feb 15·edited Feb 15

Right, never lose your humanity. What separates good people from bad people, good people still treat bad people humanly, whatever they do. You defend yourself, make them incapable of attacking, and that's it. And some may even see the error of their ways later on.

I love the story of Daryl Davis, this black R&B musician, who just went up to actual KKK members, and through talking convinced dozens of the errors of their ways...

Sure never let your guard down...

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Sun Tzu Sirsky says the best time to switch to fighting a war of attrition is when you have already burned through almost all of your equipment, ammunition and trained manpower in series of pointless months long frontal assaults and stand and hold orders for every inch of meaningless ground.

Oh yeah and hold Krinky.

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"We have reserves" - Syrsky

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Winston Churchill 1940: "Where is the strategic reserve?"

Maurice "Syrsky" Gamelin 1940/2024: "Aucune"

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You can't even begin to comprehend the sheer absolute 1,000,000 IQ genius of Strategic Mastermind Syrsky.

Syrsky isn't just playing chess you see. He's playing chess, checkers, poker, risk, monopoly, scrabble, dungeons and dragons and cards against humanity, all at once.

Any minute now, he will unveil his absolutely ingenious, brilliant, unstoppable masterstroke plan to liberate Avdiivka, and push the entire Russian army all the way to Vladivostok. Just you wait!

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What kind of hallucinates are you on. The only way NATO wins this war is using nukes and then no one wins

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So let me understand this correctly. You read this comment and assumed that it was serious and not sarcasm?

How are you this dense?

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Lol Now that I read it again I can see your sarcasm. But believe me there are many people out there that would write what you wrote with complete sincerity.

Ok you’re on magic mushrooms and I’m just a dense “dumb Ass Cowboy”. :)

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It's all good lol

But yeah, there's some real copium floating on the AFU side

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14 Febuary 2024 Middle East Ukraine & The FT Brochure Class

‘Inside Mariupol: Russia’s new Potemkin Village’

https://ig.ft.com/mariupol/

As glossy as any gated community brochure, the jazzed up FT presentation wishes to make the case for a disastrous Russian re development, ‘unmarketable’: with faithful natives dutifully lamenting the golden days of Ukraine’s benign negligence, the once proud city-‘storied’-of industry and commerce, contrasted with northern Russians carpetbaggers disappointed by the drab un luxury

The article looks designed by the same real estate teams that the FT use to market houses to the Businessman Class (Fiat Racing stripes with Art Auctioneer polish) – no wonder they sneer at the RF cheerful blocks of flats, kiddie centers and bus stops

This downbeat populism the FT contrasts with the Uk Brochure Class plans for a seaside resort, modelled on the Israeli Gaza Strip Club Med, in solidarity with re booted post industrial EU playports : Ukraine is marketing their ‘vision’ of a reconquered re constructed Mariupol to friendly US Blackrocks

It is this sense that the Ukraine will any day now re conquer the town intact & immediately redesign as a luxury PlayPen that adds an added dimension of fantasy to these Disneyworld dreamscapes in the desert–

The Ukraine has been moved to the Middle East – pre industrial economy, coloniser class settlers, terrorists; but abundant cheap drugs, cheap servants, cheap sex workers

These happy wonderlands chime with the drumbeats to a prolonged insurgency being broadcast by various NATOcrats, already one of their first reactions to RF invasion, as in ‘quagmire’ ‘disaster’ ---recently revived in order to saddle EU with all responsibility for the predicted RF invasion of EU, while the US goes off the fight somewhere else

It’s now the Ukrainian ‘resistance’ – back to the glory days of War On Terror ISIS and co: fighting everyone via global freedom fighter proxies is a lot cheaper than trying to match RF in industrial warfare, and gives the brochure class an easier read, a happy ending if you prefer

However – the Russians are good at rebuild, and better at rebuild to dissolve any ideas of insurgency – witness Chechnya – and better still at counter insurgency, especially in the ME

Insurgency

trategic-culture.su/news/2024/01/31/cia-using-nato-spy-service-conduct-covert-sabotage-campaign-inside-russia/

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/02/11/nato-and-cia-waging-secret-war-in-russia/

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/02/insurgent-ukrainian-resistance-successfully-executes-operation-in-russia-occupied-melitopol-ua-intel/

https://www.businessinsider.com/2024-ukraine-could-fight-irregular-guerrilla-warfare-against-russia-2023-12

https://www.indianpunchline.com/nuland-leaves-sense-of-foreboding-in-kiev/

https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-ukraine-not-stalemate

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2421-1.html

https://www.state.gov/joint-declaration-of-support-for-ukraine

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/02/01/ukraine-war-france-lags-behind-in-military-aid-to-kyiv_6483370_4.html

The case of Mariupol RF and reality

https://tass.com/society/1486591

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18913

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/its-like-the-ussr-residents-on-life-in-mariupol-a-year-since-russian-occupation

https://russiapost.info/society/spb_mariupol

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/putin-is-building-a-model-city-on-the-ruins-of-mariupol-but-it-may-not-stay-russian-for-long-2217895

The Ukraine version of Mariupol

https://www.neglobal.eu/a-vision-for-mariupols-reconstruction/

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/09/28/reimagining-mariupol

The case of Chechyna

https://ground.news/article/scott-ritter-how-the-chechen-miracle-kick-started-the-russian-path-of-redemption-rt-russia-and-former-soviet-union

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0321/War-ravaged-Chechnya-shows-a-stunning-rebirth-but-at-what-price

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-19627632

https://www.google.com/search?q=chechnya+re+construction&oq=chechnya+re+construction&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRg8MgYIAhBFGDwyBggDEEUYPNIBCTY1MTRqMGoxNagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#ip=1

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/08/09/grozny-demolished-by-russia-in-1995-and-mariupol-demolished-by-russia-in-2022-declared-twin-cities-by-russian-government

https://www.ft.com/content/8233d33c-ecd0-11e4-a81a-00144feab7de

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Thank you!

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Way to go Gerald!!! Thank you for all of this info, Respect!!!

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Thanks!

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Welcome!

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You should do an interview with RWA.

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Seriously? A neighbour? “The neighbor say she overheard his parents having video calls with him every day, during which he openly told them he hates Ukrainians.”

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Some things are too good to be true. It smacks of controlled narrative. Syrsky's parents and brother are in Russia though. And you can find video of his son in Australia (not in Ukraine) riding in a pro-Novorussiya parade/convoy. All very odd. Not Prigozhin marching on Moscow odd, but odd nonetheless.

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I can tell you've never been to a village in Russia before :))) Trust me, your neighbors are definitely gonna be up in your business.

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I have and still have a house in Ukraine. It's not about how people are up in anyone else's business. It's about how narrative is shaped.

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Ya this could easily be Russian psyops to undermine trust in the Ukrainian leadership.

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Watching what is happening to the AFU reminds me of how complex systems fail slowly then collapse all at once.

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It seems that the ‘all at once’ factor is being accelerated greatly by the FAB-Factor….

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Unless Russia decides to commit more resources into opens a new front, Ukraine can just play a slow roll of the front. It's a war of attrition they cannot win in the end, of course, but people have been calling a major collapse since Bakhmut and it hasn't happened.

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It's not feasible to send troops into cauldrons while soebody else is building "the next defense line", then repeat the process. It will slow Russia down, yes, but how many troops have you prepared for all the cauldrons?

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It is if you are willing to throw the entirety of you male, and some of your female, population at it. Ukraine still hasn't conscripted a large portion of their 18-24 population. And the best weapons of the Ukrainians lately, drones and mines, are cheap, easily scalable, and still within the production capacity domestically.

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18-24 is a very small fraction of male population. You are probably thinking that there was a baby boom in Ukraine 18-24 years ago. No, it wasn't, population decreased from 54 millions to around 30 millions over the last 30 years.

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It's still hundreds of thousands of people. Not to mention the other age groups who are getting a waiver for this or that reason. Ukraine will lose either way. I'm just pointing out that they can make it another year or two if they really want to drag it out.

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Feb 19·edited Feb 19

Right, they can. I saw a video from Avdeevka, they've sent women there, and then Avdeevka collapsed. They absolutely can send young adults, teenagers and children to the frontline. This is of course is going to be mass murder, like everything they were doing since the start of the SMO, and even before, since murders in Kiev and Odessa in 2014, and genocide of their own citizens in Donbass.

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Very likely that's exactly what's going to happen - after the fall of Adveeka, if the Russians open up another front near Sumy, that basically makes the entire area between Bakmut and Kharkiv a giant cauldron where the Ukrainians get pinned between multiple rivers.

If they fight, they get wedged between the Oskil, and if they fall back, the Russians get a clear shot at either Dniepro or Kiev.

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But I have still yet to see evidence that Russia can make large, rapid advancements. Ukrainian mining and FPV drones have made advances difficult. Perhaps the Russians have been developing tactics against those in the rear, but it's far from certain that they can do anything more than the slow roll they've been doing since the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer.

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Feb 19·edited Feb 19

Let's see how the offensive at Rabotino goes, as that's currently a proving ground of sorts if the Russians can make any rapid advancements.

To be fair, though, I'm not entirely sure if rapid advancements are strictly necessary - there is no deep rear that the Russians NEED to break through to, they win if they can force the Ukrainians into battle after battle on their best terms.

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If Russia is smart, they won't attempt a big advance. They already have very limited mobile capacity. Putting it in an arena where it can be easily targeted and destroyed would be folly.

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What's up with the 3rd assault brigade? Where did 1st and 2nd assault brigades go?

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To hell to hang out with their heroes Bandera and Shukhevych. They are keeping a spot warm for the 3rd. They'll be joing them soon.

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You always skip numbers so that when your enemy learns they are fighting the 101st Airborne, they wonder where the other 100 airborne divisions are stationed.

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They did the same when they spun up Special Forces groups. There's a 20th Special Forces group...but there aren't 20 Special Forces groups in the U.S. Army.

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