If the AFU have gotten to the point where they no longer have *enough men* to prevent the Russians from simply 'walking in,' that means this War is far closer to being 'Over' than many expected just a few weeks prior. It has been truly astonishing to see the Carnage & overall rate of Attrition & Decay!

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Dammit!! 2nd in the comments. Story of my life.

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Onward to Victory my friends!

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It appears songs and poems may be all that is left of a generation, let us say a prayer for the dead, regardless of orientation.

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Feb 14Liked by Simplicius

Excellent Timely Update! Big Thanks!

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Simplicius, pardon my OT post, but Gonzalo Lira has a memorial page up on Find A Grave:


If you can please make your readers aware of it and ask them to leave a flower and condolences for the Lira family. Thank you. There are just two flowers there right now, and one of them is mine. So it would be great if more people could drop by the page and express their condolences.

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I've been saying Zelensky and Syrsky are both Putin's agents helping him in denazification 😆

On a different note, the conspiracy theory that this war was a zionist project to depopulate Ukraine and control this region still seems very valid to me. And who knows if Putin helped design the Oct 7 trigger for end of Israel as a retaliation...on his birthday of course 😉

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At first slowly then all at once.

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I was correct about the all along the FEBA push just wrong about the timing by several weeks. The change and resulting confusion in command has helped greatly. The massive troop concentration hit will also serve as another shock to rear areas. Russians do continue to take losses, so it's not easy street by any means.

I await the Russian Army's version of Inchon featuring the Black Sea Fleet and its Air Mobile forces to take Odessa.

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Feb 14·edited Feb 14

Great write up as usual. What caught my eye is in the video of the FABS below the text "with Fab bombs going off on AFU positions:"

The church in front on the left side seems pretty much unharmed and shining..

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Sun Tzu Sirsky says the best time to switch to fighting a war of attrition is when you have already burned through almost all of your equipment, ammunition and trained manpower in series of pointless months long frontal assaults and stand and hold orders for every inch of meaningless ground.

Oh yeah and hold Krinky.

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14 Febuary 2024 Middle East Ukraine & The FT Brochure Class

‘Inside Mariupol: Russia’s new Potemkin Village’


As glossy as any gated community brochure, the jazzed up FT presentation wishes to make the case for a disastrous Russian re development, ‘unmarketable’: with faithful natives dutifully lamenting the golden days of Ukraine’s benign negligence, the once proud city-‘storied’-of industry and commerce, contrasted with northern Russians carpetbaggers disappointed by the drab un luxury

The article looks designed by the same real estate teams that the FT use to market houses to the Businessman Class (Fiat Racing stripes with Art Auctioneer polish) – no wonder they sneer at the RF cheerful blocks of flats, kiddie centers and bus stops

This downbeat populism the FT contrasts with the Uk Brochure Class plans for a seaside resort, modelled on the Israeli Gaza Strip Club Med, in solidarity with re booted post industrial EU playports : Ukraine is marketing their ‘vision’ of a reconquered re constructed Mariupol to friendly US Blackrocks

It is this sense that the Ukraine will any day now re conquer the town intact & immediately redesign as a luxury PlayPen that adds an added dimension of fantasy to these Disneyworld dreamscapes in the desert–

The Ukraine has been moved to the Middle East – pre industrial economy, coloniser class settlers, terrorists; but abundant cheap drugs, cheap servants, cheap sex workers

These happy wonderlands chime with the drumbeats to a prolonged insurgency being broadcast by various NATOcrats, already one of their first reactions to RF invasion, as in ‘quagmire’ ‘disaster’ ---recently revived in order to saddle EU with all responsibility for the predicted RF invasion of EU, while the US goes off the fight somewhere else

It’s now the Ukrainian ‘resistance’ – back to the glory days of War On Terror ISIS and co: fighting everyone via global freedom fighter proxies is a lot cheaper than trying to match RF in industrial warfare, and gives the brochure class an easier read, a happy ending if you prefer

However – the Russians are good at rebuild, and better at rebuild to dissolve any ideas of insurgency – witness Chechnya – and better still at counter insurgency, especially in the ME












The case of Mariupol RF and reality






The Ukraine version of Mariupol



The case of Chechyna







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You should do an interview with RWA.

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Seriously? A neighbour? “The neighbor say she overheard his parents having video calls with him every day, during which he openly told them he hates Ukrainians.”

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Watching what is happening to the AFU reminds me of how complex systems fail slowly then collapse all at once.

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What's up with the 3rd assault brigade? Where did 1st and 2nd assault brigades go?

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