This will be an irregular sort of scattershot update today to clear out some interesting but minor marginalia and technical items that may not fit into larger upcoming pieces. — Let’s start with the interesting ‘leaked’ image claimed to be from the Ukrainian “Virage-Planshet” system I’ve highlighted before. Planshet just means “tablet”, by the way. It has generated a lot of commentary given that it appears to imply that Ukraine has total surveillance of every Russian aircraft in the entire SMO—which should, technically speaking, not be possible:
Ultimately, the philosophies are fundamentally different…
Which is why we have a situation now where American tech (old & now) are failing en masse & headed to the Junkyard at best. At worst; they will malfunction and kill of their many various operators. Tragic!
Ukraine Russia has turned out to be the most boring war in history, regardless of all the high-tech dressing! At that pace, we would still be fighting in WWII!
Will be really interesting to see what Ru does about Kharkiv. The attacks on Belgorod are obviously a provocation, hoping that either Russia flattens Kharkiv in retaliation (and killing many Ukr-Ru in the city) or getting drawn into a bloody urban seige of a city of 1mn people. They certainly do know how to poke the bear
Great Article once again Simplicius. I for one believe that heavy UCAV drones armed with missiles like the Product 305 LMUR TV guided missile can be a serious contender on the battlefield as it allows standoff attack distance immune to the ground mud conditions. If you have hundreds of these working in conjunction with CAS, it can reduce manned aircraft volumes and stress and pilot loss. This is essentially diversion of workload and airframe stress to automated UCAV and unmanned systems. I guarantee you UCAV armed with TV electro-optical guided missiles will make a difference on the battlefield.
Is Russia still running a blockade of Ukraine's grain or is it a non-issue in the middle of the winter?
If Russia has the available resources it wouldn't shock me to see them push towards Kharkov enough to open another front just to spread thr Ukrainians thinner.
I get a strong impression that Russia is simply outsmarting the U.S.-led coalition of morons and incompetents at every level. Russia is the most progressed country in my lifetime. I noticed Russia's improvements before this conflict by looking at its solid growth and stable economy over several years. While the West was predominantly a debt-based economy, Russia reduced its debt and began to unload its holdings of USD's down to nearly nothing while adding gold to its balance sheet. Whoever led this economic turnaround for Russia deserves a medal because Russia now has minimal debt and a real economy with a clean balance sheet which is completely the opposite of the West's runaway deficits, debt, make-believe woke failing economy and printed-from-thin air funny money with nothing but a promise to pay holders of its T-bills. And we all know how much you can trust a promise from the U.S. The West is a Vampire that needs Russia to exploit to survive long-term. But the sun is soon to rise and the Vampire no more shall be but with worthless USD's. lol Well done, Russia.
Yet again we have casualty numbers which simply do not correlate with different sources - 30,000 per month would by now imply c 700,000 - almost twice the Russian estimate from a few weeks ago, and even the higher number is much less than other estimates - though accords with my own view. And the comment about sick soldiers is also interesting - what else do you expect putting old men into cold wet conditions the open in mid-winter in eastern Ukraine?
However it does look like the Russians are doing the obvious thing and putting pressure on multiple fronts and in multiple dimensions. At the risk of blowing my own trumpet, I did think this might be the strategy - though I had not considered that Ukraine's arms' industry would be worth attacking.
Every day though the slow slide to collapse appears speeding up. There is about 10 weeks now to the Spring Raputitsa - but I doubt the UAF can be brought to the point of irrevocable defeat in that timescale. However May 2024 looks possible. IMHO it is touch and go as to whether the home front will remain intact and without some sort of coup until then. In any event, it looks like we are entering the beginning of the end game here. I don't personally view this as a stalemate nor do I think this thing can go on for years.
There is a bizarre rumor that Lloyd Austin, rather than having some post surgical complications, was actually wounded at a Ukrainian site which took a missile strike?!
Regarding artillery ammunition, I found this pro-western discussion board interesting, where one participant stated that the US is producing about 36.000 shells a month, Europe even less. If we are generous and round it up to 60.000 shells a month, this would fit ukrainian current use. But I cant believe the 10.000 shell figure for the russian side, either its deliberate understating, or RUS is saving up for a renewed offensive, the (conservative) values I remember are a prewar russian production of 300.000 a year, and Shoigus statement about a 17.5 fold production increase, which would amount to 5 Mio+ shells a year or 15.000 a day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcyJAWUnnwQ&t=1381s
With these AI drones being immune to EW they will need some kind of mechanical destruction. Any thought on this? Maybe like a mini CIWS with optical ID those could be fully AI too.
Drone wars! Guys with the biggest protractor wins.
Kinda takes the testosterone out of military doesnt it so maybe US army gobalhomo initiative is not wrong. haha.
Thanks for your hard work sir. Your analysis is the best!
A Skeptic Daily War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-01-09
Western “weapons” are designed to sell.
Russian weapons are designed to kill.
Ultimately, the philosophies are fundamentally different…
Which is why we have a situation now where American tech (old & now) are failing en masse & headed to the Junkyard at best. At worst; they will malfunction and kill of their many various operators. Tragic!
Ukraine Russia has turned out to be the most boring war in history, regardless of all the high-tech dressing! At that pace, we would still be fighting in WWII!
Will be really interesting to see what Ru does about Kharkiv. The attacks on Belgorod are obviously a provocation, hoping that either Russia flattens Kharkiv in retaliation (and killing many Ukr-Ru in the city) or getting drawn into a bloody urban seige of a city of 1mn people. They certainly do know how to poke the bear
Great Article once again Simplicius. I for one believe that heavy UCAV drones armed with missiles like the Product 305 LMUR TV guided missile can be a serious contender on the battlefield as it allows standoff attack distance immune to the ground mud conditions. If you have hundreds of these working in conjunction with CAS, it can reduce manned aircraft volumes and stress and pilot loss. This is essentially diversion of workload and airframe stress to automated UCAV and unmanned systems. I guarantee you UCAV armed with TV electro-optical guided missiles will make a difference on the battlefield.
Is Russia still running a blockade of Ukraine's grain or is it a non-issue in the middle of the winter?
If Russia has the available resources it wouldn't shock me to see them push towards Kharkov enough to open another front just to spread thr Ukrainians thinner.
I get a strong impression that Russia is simply outsmarting the U.S.-led coalition of morons and incompetents at every level. Russia is the most progressed country in my lifetime. I noticed Russia's improvements before this conflict by looking at its solid growth and stable economy over several years. While the West was predominantly a debt-based economy, Russia reduced its debt and began to unload its holdings of USD's down to nearly nothing while adding gold to its balance sheet. Whoever led this economic turnaround for Russia deserves a medal because Russia now has minimal debt and a real economy with a clean balance sheet which is completely the opposite of the West's runaway deficits, debt, make-believe woke failing economy and printed-from-thin air funny money with nothing but a promise to pay holders of its T-bills. And we all know how much you can trust a promise from the U.S. The West is a Vampire that needs Russia to exploit to survive long-term. But the sun is soon to rise and the Vampire no more shall be but with worthless USD's. lol Well done, Russia.
Yet again we have casualty numbers which simply do not correlate with different sources - 30,000 per month would by now imply c 700,000 - almost twice the Russian estimate from a few weeks ago, and even the higher number is much less than other estimates - though accords with my own view. And the comment about sick soldiers is also interesting - what else do you expect putting old men into cold wet conditions the open in mid-winter in eastern Ukraine?
However it does look like the Russians are doing the obvious thing and putting pressure on multiple fronts and in multiple dimensions. At the risk of blowing my own trumpet, I did think this might be the strategy - though I had not considered that Ukraine's arms' industry would be worth attacking.
Every day though the slow slide to collapse appears speeding up. There is about 10 weeks now to the Spring Raputitsa - but I doubt the UAF can be brought to the point of irrevocable defeat in that timescale. However May 2024 looks possible. IMHO it is touch and go as to whether the home front will remain intact and without some sort of coup until then. In any event, it looks like we are entering the beginning of the end game here. I don't personally view this as a stalemate nor do I think this thing can go on for years.
The Arestovich turn has been absolutely fascinating and bizarre to watch. Good stuff.
“... though of course some sort of self-destruct mechanism for the module could have been useful.”
Yep!
Again, the edge Russia is gaining needs to be safeguarded as much as possible...
There is a bizarre rumor that Lloyd Austin, rather than having some post surgical complications, was actually wounded at a Ukrainian site which took a missile strike?!
Regarding artillery ammunition, I found this pro-western discussion board interesting, where one participant stated that the US is producing about 36.000 shells a month, Europe even less. If we are generous and round it up to 60.000 shells a month, this would fit ukrainian current use. But I cant believe the 10.000 shell figure for the russian side, either its deliberate understating, or RUS is saving up for a renewed offensive, the (conservative) values I remember are a prewar russian production of 300.000 a year, and Shoigus statement about a 17.5 fold production increase, which would amount to 5 Mio+ shells a year or 15.000 a day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcyJAWUnnwQ&t=1381s
From the bomb making video
“To put the parachute, a female scyth is required... and here the male force is already needed” 😂
The videos of the speeches in Chechnya are badass. Banderites are going to absolutely wrecked by those men. Good hunting.
With these AI drones being immune to EW they will need some kind of mechanical destruction. Any thought on this? Maybe like a mini CIWS with optical ID those could be fully AI too.
Drone wars! Guys with the biggest protractor wins.
Kinda takes the testosterone out of military doesnt it so maybe US army gobalhomo initiative is not wrong. haha.