SITREP 1/31/24: Secret Back-Channel Talks Spur Hopes on Iran De-escalation + Zelensky-Zaluzhny Showdown

Twists and turns put new ruffles in the ongoing MidEast saga.

Last time we left off with American troops suffering some of their first ever direct deaths at the hands of “Iranian proxies”, inflaming major retaliatory talk by the Biden administration.

But the latest clarifying updates reveal that a whirlwind of ‘secret negotiations’ has ensued behind the scenes, with the Biden administration desperately trying to signal an “understanding” with Iran without losing face. These are complex and multi-faceted talks because there are rumors of the direct and indirect involvement of many parties, including Hezbollah. In general, it can be summarized as: Israel is on a scorched earth tear, and the US is running behind it with a fire extinguisher, desperately trying to keep the flames under control.

Biden, dazed and confused as always, embodies US’ headless chicken mien:

The most significant of the rumors states that US has tried to ‘quietly’ send signals to Iran via Swiss embassy back channels, which is the main go-to method they’ve used for a long time:

> It was reported, that the U.S. offered through the Swiss embassy to Iran, to strike one of their sites but Iran should not retaliate. This would allow the US to save face. Looks like it was REJECTED:

“The US sent more than one message to Tehran over the past two days via third parties. Washington's messages said that it did not want an open war and warned that expanding the war would be met with the US action. Tehran rejected Washington's threats and said targeting its territory is a red line, and crossing the line would be met with an appropriate response. Tehran's message said that it does not want a war with Washington either, but it will forcefully confront any American adventure.” — Iranian sources to AJArabic

Let’s piece this together. First, the above report states that US basically begged Iran to allow it to strike some symbolic targets with the promise that Iran would not retaliate, so that US can get a lick in and save its reputation on the world stage. Iran reportedly replied that no attacks on its territory would be allowed.

What’s interesting about this is that subsequent reports stated that US is now shifting to potentially a wider scale campaign of attacking Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, but not directly attacking Iranian territory. However, they are considering doing cyberattacks on Iran, which would be a sort of ‘compromise’ as it would technically affect Iranian territory but not in an overt physical way. You can see how ridiculous this type of theater gets, as US policy has devolved into nothing more than a delicate and performative balancing act, all for the sake of protecting its golden calf of Israel in the region.

This aspect of it has dominated headlines, but what has been lesser reported is the ongoing secret negotiations between Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas, and co. While the US tries desperately to keep Israel from fanning the flames, the US itself works round the clock to try and patch together a deal that could potentially satisfy all parties.

On account of this, there have been several unconfirmed reports in the past day or two that Israel is now considering a total cessation of hostilities via a full exchange of all prisoners and hostages. However, Netanyahu has gone on TV to vehemently deny this and to state that operations will continue until “full victory”. But that could just be grandstanding as byproduct of his politically precarious situation; at the moment, he’s loath to show any perceived weakness, and has to keep pumping himself up with this false bravado to keep the vultures at bay.

As potential fruits of this herculean labor, we get the following new reports:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraqs-kataib-hezbollah-suspends-military-operations-us-forces-statement-2024-01-30/

Namely, the most powerful and influential of the ‘Iranian-backed’ groups which has been launching strikes on US forces has suddenly declared it will ‘suspend’ its attacks. That means that the negotiations have seemingly satisfied the parties in agreement—for now—that de-escalation should ensue. If this de-escalation also follows through its momentum into a major historic ceasefire in Gaza as well, then it will have essentially been a pinnacle Iranian triumph in full, as it will have meant that Iran managed to bully the US into acceding to all its demands while gaining vast influence and prestige over the region.

The obvious implication here, which I had alluded to last time, is that there are further secret negotiations behind the scenes for US’ withdrawal from the region. Presumably Iran has signaled that the only way to de-escalate is to present concrete outlines for the withdrawal of US forces. So this will be the area to watch in the coming days and weeks, to see if the US signals further acquiescence on this account, or makes any new announcements regarding official plans or talks that may sketch out a timeline, even a loose one, for some type of withdrawals. It should be mentioned though that days ago Victoria Nuland made it “clear” that US will not be withdrawing from Syria—but it’s difficult to know on whose behalf, precisely, she’s speaking:

One gets the impression that her deepstate clan inside the government is so powerful that she’s sometimes given uncommon license to make opinionated declarations which have no actual statutory backing, but may later be rescinded simply because no one dares to gainsay her at the time, and she’s given more of a free hand to ‘interpret’ official policy at whim.

Given these developments, we could potentially read Israel’s recent saber-rattling toward Lebanon/Hezbollah as being a sort of wishful signal toward the US—perhaps even a threat which is meant to say: “Do not dare back down against Iran now or we will embroil you in something far larger and force your hand.”

One thing is clear: Iran doesn’t want escalation, the US doesn’t want escalation; both are in a sense responding to Israel’s provocations and dancing around them. Israel is in the driver’s seat here, to an extent. If Israel signs a ceasefire, Iran could back off and ‘release’ the Red Sea routes, freeing the Western world from economic strangulation. Everything the Houthis/Ansar Allah have been doing is in response to Israel’s actions for the most part. It was recently revealed that even Saudi-flagged ships are being permitted transit in the Red Sea:

This is likely not only a result of Iran-Saudi rapprochement, but also the fact that Saudi Arabia rejected US’ request for KSA to join its Red Sea operation ‘Prosperity Guardian’—further proof that Ansar Allah’s operations are aimed primarily at Israel and its actions.

Lastly, if all else fails and the Empire wants to keep escalating, Ansar Allah are reportedly ready to likewise up the ante in ways that could seriously wound the beast at their door:

The other largest development of the week comes from the Ukrainian theater. Zelensky finally pulled the trigger and attempted to openly oust Zaluzhny:

We’ve reported on this growing thread for a long time here, and doubtless some people were dubious of the growing schism, based mostly on what appeared to be hearsay or unsourced ‘reports’. Now it has gone fully official such that even Western press is forced to openly report on the inconvenient developments.

The only thing is that there is still little agreement on how exactly it went down. The primary version says Zelensky sat down face to face with Zaluzhny and asked for his resignation, which Zaluzhny refused:

But there are some other versions; such as the one which states that Zelensky’s nominated replacement for Zaluzhny, which would have been Budanov, himself refused the position for some unstated reason. One can surmise what such a reason could look like: Budanov knows Zaluzhny wields the most powerful faction in the country now and it’s probably not a good idea to get on Zaluzhny’s bad side on the eve of his potentially coming overthrow of Zelensky, after which Zaluzhny could very well decide to ‘purge’ anyone who crossed him—which in this case would include Budanov, were he to undercut Zaluzhny in such a way.

One report even said General Syrsky likewise refused to replace Zaluzhny:

🇺🇦⚔️🇺🇦 The Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, following the Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov, refused an offer to take the position of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine instead of Zaluzhny, reports the British Times citing sources.

The newspaper also reveals some details of the meeting between Zaluzhny and Zelensky on January 29. Sources informed it that during the meeting, the Chief of the General Staff stated to Zelensky's advisors that their assessments of the military situation were more positive than realistic. Following these words, Zaluzhny was offered to resign.

Times also claims that after Zaluzhny's refusal, Zelensky told him he would personally sign the resignation decree. After this, Zaluzhny returned to his office and announced to subordinates about his dismissal. Immediately, "international partners" represented by the US and Britain expressed concern, and Zelensky "was forced to reverse his decision under pressure from the top military command and international partners."

As the above hints at, another version stated that Zelensky had an immediate ‘talking to’ from his American sponsors, who in no uncertain terms abruptly ordered him to cease attempts to remove the general.

The Economist described their version:

A dramatic day began with leaks from MPs, who had been informed, possibly strategically, about a “set of documents” sent to a security committee for signing. Later, sources in the general staff and close to General Zaluzhny confirmed that a shake-up was in the works. The Economist has been able to confirm that an early-evening meeting took place at which the president informed his general that he had decided to dismiss him. Mr Zaluzhny was offered another role: secretary of the national security council. He turned it down.

They rightly conclude that it’s a no-win situation:

It is not clear how this story will end. But if Mr Zelensky keeps his top commander on, he will look weak. If he fires him, the clumsy way it has been handled will only damage confidence in the leadership. As so often in this conflict, there are no easy wins.

A last version stated that Zaluzhny threatened to go to the media very ‘vocally’ afterwards, which caused Zelensky to back down. You see, at the moment Zaluzhny is reportedly under a total silence edict whereby he is not allowed to speak to media or almost anyone. As absurd as it may sound, this was actually confirmed by Substack’s own Mick Ryan in his latest article.

Of course, this is not a new story. The tensions in this relationship have been apparent for some time. During my first 2023 visit to Ukraine early last year, I was informed that Zaluzhnyi wasn’t able to be interviewed as he had been forbidden from speaking to the press without Presidential approval.

During the proceedings, Rada Deputy Mariana Bezuglaya, who some sources have long reported may be working for Yermak in discrediting Zaluzhny, used the opportunity to slag more dirt on the embattled general, calling him an ‘alcoholic’ who never leaves his office to the frontline:

On the flip side of that, Yulia Tymoshenko defended Zaluzhny, disagreeing with the call for his dismissal:

The more important topic revolves around why, precisely, Zelensky chose to make such a desperate-looking move now of all times. We’ve reported for a while that Zelensky had embarked on a slow-burn campaign to discredit Zaluzhny bit by bit, until such time that he may resign of his own will or perhaps be easy to remove on account of his damaged reputation.

The dominant theory revolves around the continued mobilization albatross. One report even states the meeting between Zelensky and his general was entirely about delivering an ultimatum that Zaluzhny must present the mobilization bill to the Rada himself. Zelensky is obsessed with forcing Zaluzhny to take responsibility for a new mass mobilization bill, so that he can be the lightning rod and soak up all societal criticism. Zaluzhny on the other hand is said to believe that it’s the President’s constitutional duty to handle such things.

The country is currently in a stasis, not only because Zelensky can’t bring himself to take the risk of getting the blame for a draconian mobilization bill, but also because the Ukrainian parliament is frozen by lack of future reassurance in the funding department. You see, not only are military bills like Biden’s proposed aid package to Ukraine frozen in deadlock, but even the regular economic aid is bogged down. The largest of which is currently being argued over in the EU, with Hungary putting up major roadblocks, for which it’s being blackmailed and heavily threatened.

Without even knowing what type of funding will be available this year or the longer term future, the Ukrainian parliament is unable to design appropriate mobilization plans because they are contingent in large part on what funds will be available for the various programs and aspects of such an ambitious, large-scale drive. Thus, internally the system is currently hampered and unable to function properly.

And in regard to that funding, the EU’s proposed €50B is for four years. Ukraine requires something like $25-30B yearly just for government and civil expenses—this doesn’t count military expenses, i.e. the defense budget. That means even this €50B is woefully short, though there are a few other proposed mechanisms to try to get them a little more.

The Rada itself is proposing some radical measures. From Resident UA channel:

Our source in the OP donated the draft plan of the Office of the President and the Cabinet to get out of the situation with funding from the United States. On Bankova they are waiting for February to finally calculate assistance from the West for 2024 and revise the budget, but now there are main points:

- devaluation of the hryvnia up to 45-50 per dollar, which will help to get an additional 200-250 billion hryvnia.

-reduction of social payments -25-30 billion hryvnia.

- increase in tariffs of housing and communal services will additionally attract 20 billion hryvnia.

-updating the scheme with the NBU for OVGZ when using the gold and currency fund - 300-500 billion hryvnia, based on the deficit.

And on that account, Victoria Nuland was dispatched to Kiev, in what can only be deemed an emergency fixer job, to patch things up and hold it all together from falling apart:

She even promised some nasty little “surprises” for Putin. Some have inferred this to mean the new announcement that Ukraine is allegedly already receiving the long-awaited GLSDBs, or Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs, which can fire from the HIMARs launchers. I already wrote a whole primer on these back when they were first announced, so if you’re interested in details, you can consult this:

She gave some laughable AI-generated boilerplate ‘encouragement’ as answer, but her real assignment was clearly not about intermediating for what US Congress is doing, but about sending verbal warnings to Zelensky and the upper staff, and handing them their directives for the time being.

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland during her visit in Kiev today was unable to answer the question of whether the United States has a Plan B if Congress does not approve an aid package for Ukraine

"Americans understand and admire the incredible results that Ukraine has already achieved in the fight against Russian aggression. And they also understand what will happen if you cannot continue not only to defend yourself, but to succeed. I am absolutely confident that understanding this will affect the results of the Congress’ vote at the request of President Biden,” the US Deputy Secretary of State answered when asked whether Ukraine will receive assistance from the United States and whether there is a “Plan B”.

In closing, Mark Galeotti sounded a warning in his new article:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/zelenskys-rivalry-with-zaluzhny-spells-bad-news-for-ukraine

Here’s how one analyst summed it up:

The situation with the possible resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Valery Zaluzhny has caused bewilderment among Western diplomats, an employee of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies writes about this in an article for the weekly The Spectator. RUSI) Mark Galeotti.

A senior European diplomat involved in Ukrainian affairs told Galeotti that earlier this week the Ukrainian side tried to consult with his country's embassy about a possible response to the military reshuffle. Subsequently, according to him, in Kyiv, “it seems they came to their senses”, deciding not to dismiss Zaluzhny. “What were they thinking?” - said Galeotti's interlocutor.

As the article notes, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky could abandon plans to replace Zaluzhny, realizing that the reaction to this decision could be extremely negative.

Budanov at the last moment rejected the post of commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, The Economist reports, citing sources.

According to the publication, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense was considered as one of the main candidates to replace the current Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.

The publication also writes that Zaluzhny refused Zelensky’s offer to take the post of Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.

And BBC, believe it or not, had the most thorough summary of the proceedings, with an interesting forecast for what may come next.

BBC interlocutors in the Ukrainian defense sector say that in the current circumstances, the resignation of the commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine looks more like a matter of time.

The number of contradictions between Zelensky and Zaluzhny has reached a critical limit, and it seems that we are no longer just talking about the difference in views on the fighting and its future, but about purely personal contradictions between these, in truth, completely different people and the lack of trust between them necessary for Ukraine not to lose the war unleashed by Russia.

Lastly, despite what happened thus far, CNN claims it was just the appetizer, and that Zelensky intends to issue a full presidential decree to remove Zaluzhny from power “by the end of the week”:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/01/31/europe/zaluzhny-oust-ukraine-army-zelensky-intl/index.html

A formal announcement has not been made, meaning Zaluzhny was still in post as of Wednesday evening, however, a presidential decree is expected by the end of the week, one of the sources told CNN, in what would be the biggest military shakeup by Zelensky since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion almost two years ago.

Well, get your popcorn ready.

A couple other small items.

Today Putin openly said—likely for the first time, in such an overt and public manner—that the entire contact line will have to be pushed back to such a distance as to keep Russian territories from being reached by NATO’s most advanced weaponry given to Ukraine:

Given the announcement that GLSDBs are allegedly now en route, this is essentially confirmation that Kharkov and more will have to be retaken. Kharkov is only 30km from the Russian border while weapons like GLSDB have 140km+ range.

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The US military continues showing some serious cracks in its infrastructure and culture of readiness. This is the third F-16 crash in less than a year, not counting many other crashes like the B-1B, and various other craft:

Interestingly, there’s now reports that a Yemeni missile has come the closest ever to hitting a US ship, bypassing the vaunted AEGIS system and making it all the way up to the last line of resort: the CIWS.

Even the ‘experts’ are worried:

The report details:

CNN reports per 4 Defense Officials that yesterday's interception of a Houthi ASCM by USS Gravely (DDG-107) was at a range of around 1 mile or 0.86 nautical miles and was shot down by the ships CIWS. This is the first specifically reported instance of a Houthi missile/drone interception by CIWS. This is the closest interception to date the others being within 5-10 miles away.

This is extremely uncomfortably close. To be shot down at under 2km means if the missile was going at, let’s say, Mach 2, which is 2500km/h, it would have been only 2-3 seconds away from hitting the ship. At Mach 3, it was 1.5 seconds away from striking the ship. That’s what you call a close call.

An infographic of what the US Navy claims to have shot down thus far:

At the same time, they claimed to have shot down another Yemeni ballistic missile with an SM-6, US’ most advanced and expensive air defense missile, with a hefty price tag of $4.3M. And Houthis have apparently been finding what has been matched by experts to be exactly SM-6 (rather than SM-2, etc.) carcasses all over the beaches:

Just further confirmation that US is expending a huge amount of its most precious and expensive AD systems. Not to mention the Houthis continue to get closer and closer:

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A few weeks back, there were some reports that upon the escalation of the Israel situation, Saudi Arabia had ‘quietly walked back’ its BRICS membership, likely having “gotten the phone call” from the people in the US you don’t say ‘no’ to. However, today some new promising reports claimed that Saudi Arabia has fully ratified its membership, as have the other new entrants:

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The IMF continues to ‘revise’ up Russia’s economic projections by more than double:

This is a classic deceit pattern: defame your enemy to harm their reputation when it matters, then later ‘quietly’ redact your lies after the damage is already done to cover your trail.

Meanwhile, for the West:

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If you thought Ukrainian mobilization commissars are already overbearingly coercive to the point of violence, this commander, Anatoly Stuzhenko of the 118th territorial brigade, says people who refuse to follow the commissar’s call should be shot in the knees—otherwise mobilization will fail and there’s no way to get enough people for the front:

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Lastly, you may recall last time Putin said they were still determining which Western anti-air system was used in the shootdown of the Il-76. Now he brings the news that authorities have determined definitively from the onsite forensics that it was in fact an American Patriot system:

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As a last quick note: it has come to my attention there’s an impersonator on Telegram under the name of Simplicius76, whose account looks like so:

Please be aware that this is some kind of scammer and is not me nor represents me in any way, and that I am not on Telegram in any official capacity.

My only official social media is on Twitter/X here: https://twitter.com/simpatico771

Some have asked me to go on Telegram, but unfortunately for the moment I simply don’t have the time or capacity to juggle that many accounts; maybe sometime in the future.

The only real reason I’m on X is more of a pragmatic investment in the hopes Musk fulfills his promise to convert it to a payment app which would give creators another option to bypass censorial and pro-deplatformization services like virtually every one in existence, i.e. Paypal, Venmo, etc.

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