SITREP 1/29/25: Ukraine's Mass Drone Heave Conceals Spreading Foundation Cracks
In the absence of any other effective requital, Ukraine has continued carrying out record-breaking drone attacks on Russian territory. There were another two nights of dozens if not hundreds of drones which have triggered debate—particularly from the pro-UA propagandist side—on whether Ukraine is finally breaking through to the ‘singularity’ point wherein production of cheap drones will begin consistently overwhelming Russian defenses, and ability to do anything at all.
Scores of cities experienced the drone incursions, though most were shot down—but still various facilities were hit, most notably a large Ryazan refinery that is claimed to have processed 5% of all Russian oil:
Ryazan oil refinery processed 13.1 million metric tons (262,000 barrels per day), or almost 5% of Russia's total refining throughput in 2024.
It produced 2.2 million tons of gasoline, 3.4 million tons of diesel, 4.3 million tons of fuel oil and 1 million of jet fuel, according to a source-based data.
And another Lukoil one in Nizhny Novgorod at 56.111826782750065, 44.150536106619995, described as one of Russia’s largest, with a claimed 6% of Russian oil passing through it:
Russia: Giant oil refinery struck by Ukrainian drones in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region. It had a refining capacity of 17 million tons per year, accounting for over 6% of Russia's total refining output. Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez is located 800km from Ukraine.
Ukrainians rejoice and post graphics like this one to imply these refineries are taken out permanently:
Of course we know in reality most of them are repaired and back up and running from within days to weeks or less. Others end up taking much less damage than assumed, for instance this recent hit on an Engels base fuel storage area which was sold by Ukrainians as some kind of “total devastation” which ‘starved’ the base’s Tu-95s from being able to fly missions:
As usual, the damage was much lighter than claimed.
Even so, we don’t have to cope and assume all the damage is small. It’s clear Ukraine’s attacks are fairly successful and Russia has its hands full in trying to defend the near daily drone onslaught. At the same time, Russia too is hitting Ukrainian infrastructure on a daily basis: there was another withering string of attacks just the past few days in a row, and this gets little news airplay anymore due to its banal nature. Even if we assume Russia and Ukraine are going blow for blow on an even scale, it’s clear that Ukraine’s infrastructure will attrit first; “the fat man gets thinner, while the thin man dies.”
It’s no shock that as Ukraine’s conventional capabilities evaporate, the country is left with no other choice than to pour all resources into things they can manufacture en masse and at scale in small, undetectable, underground DIY workshops, which drones are ideal for. Anything larger than drone production typically requires far greater logistics and energy consumption footprints, which are detected and targeted by Russian long range missile strikes. But drones are suited for a very ‘distributed’ and stealth-style manufacturing process.
In fact, just today a Ukrainian drone honcho said that school children should be made to assemble the AFU’s drones for this very reason:
🇺🇦🤡The founder of the company for the production of EWs "Aura" suggests that drones in Ukraine should be assembled by children in schools, because Russian missiles can fly at large production facilities, but the Russians will not shoot at children. I.e. suggests using children as human shields.
"It is necessary that FPV-drones collected at labor lessons in schools, hide them in basements, garages - so we will ensure mass. Because if you build a large workshop, it (Russian missiles) will quickly fly there", - said Alexei Polonchuk.
But getting back to the significance of it all.
Ukraine’s ramp up in strikes on Russian oil infrastructure is obviously meant to herald this greater overall Western shift to “forcing Putin into negotiations” by crashing the Russian economy to a point where the continuation of the war would be untenable. You can see this as a coordinated shift in the collective West’s tactics, as many of the recent ‘think pieces’ being churned out from Western pundit mills have all suddenly begun to center around hamstringing Russian energy as the last ditch effort to stop the Russian military juggernaut.
As stated, we’re not going to cope and lie here, and pretend there is no danger whatsoever, and all Ukraine’s attacks are totally fruitless shams like many analysts in the pro-Russian commentariat claim. There are some troubling signs, like this unverified report from a Russian source from earlier today:
China and India stopped buying oil from Russia under contracts for delivery in March. The reason for this is the increase in the cost of freight for tankers that have not yet been affected by US sanctions, writes Reuters with reference to traders. The premium of Russian ESPO crude oil increased by $3-5 per barrel compared to ICE Brent, while freight rates for an Aframax tanker en route to China increased "by several million dollars." Not profitable.
Recall that one of Trump’s secret plans was reportedly to scare India and China into dumping Russian energy by way of the sanctions threat. This is only the beginning for now, the West in accordance with Ukraine will only continue ramping this up, so there are certainly dangers ahead to continue tracking.
Not to mention other reports that Ukraine has ramped up attempts to hit Russian nuclear plants:
Air defence systems destroyed a drone attempting to strike a nuclear power facility in the western region of Smolensk bordering Belarus, Governor Vasily Anokhin said on the Telegram messaging app.
The Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, the largest power generating plant in Russia's northwest, was working normally, RIA state news agency reported, citing the plant's press service.
Of course, to think this would cause Putin to capitulate and end the war, even in the worst case scenario, is foolish—that’s simply not going to happen. But that also doesn’t mean there’s no overall dangers for the Russian economy should Ukraine and the West continue scaling up the overwhelming drone saturation capabilities, along with the potential upcoming Trump-led clamp downs on Russian energy.
In the meantime, on the actual front lines, things continue going in the predictable direction. Latest from the Economist:
Weaving a make-believe tale of ‘uncountable Russian losses’ driving Ukraine’s front collapse, the above article does intersperse some grim insights:
The Russian tactics are not dynamic, but are causing Ukraine no end of bother. Put simply, Russia has the infantry and Ukraine does not. Issues with mobilisation and desertion have hit Ukraine’s reserves hard.
“We struggle to replace our battlefield losses,” says Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko, the commander of a Ukrainian tactical grouping in the Donbas. “They might throw a battalion’s worth of soldiers at a position we’ve manned with four or five soldiers.” The brigades that make up the Donbas frontline are consistently understaffed, under pressure, and cracking. The front line keeps creeping back.
“We no longer have tactics beyond plugging holes,” says “Kupol,” the nom de guerre of a now-retired commander, who up until September led a brigade fighting in eastern Donbas. “We throw battalions into the chaotic mess and hope we can somehow stop the grind.”
It’s stunning how low-intelligence the typical Western press reader must be to devour wholesale such absurd prima facie contradictions day in and out in each article, like: “Russia is sustaining far more losses, but Ukraine keeps retreating, has no troops left, etc.”
Behind the scenes, as always, the mood appears to be different. GUR head Budanov sparked a firestorm of controversy this week when in a closed door session he reportedly intimated that Ukraine faces existential collapse within six months, if negotiations don’t start:
Full report from an attendant:
‼️🇺🇦🏴☠️ Ukraine may cease to exist if there are no serious negotiations by summer — GUR chief Budanov in the Rada
▪️Budanov told deputies about the threat to Ukraine's existence if peace talks do not begin before the summer, writes "Ukrainska Pravda".
▪️Recently, a closed meeting was held in the Rada, where the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported to the leaders of parliament and factions on the real state of military affairs.
▪️"At first, the General Staff representatives told a lot, confusingly, but very interestingly. Then there were other different reports. But the answer that I remember most was Budanov's. Someone asked him how much time we had. And Kirill, with his cold smile, said: "If there are no serious negotiations before the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may be launched," one of the meeting participants told the publication.
▪️"Everyone looked at each other and fell silent. Probably, everything needs to work out," the deputy summed up, "a little confusedly."
▪️Yesterday, the media reported on a "plan to end the war by summer" that has been actively discussed by the Ukrainian elite recently.
RVvoenkor
This led to various Ukrainian figures quickly jumping in to rug-sweep the above as “taken out of context”, or some other excuse:
Budanov's statement about the threat to Ukraine's existence is taken out of context, said Ukrainian MP Dunda.
He reminded that the publication of data from a secret meeting is prohibited, and commenting on such issues interferes with national security. And those who disseminated this information must be held accountable.
Budanov himself tried to awkwardly dismiss the controversy with a cryptic ‘joke’ or parable, which only served to fortify the likelihood of his dire statement in question:
I suppose the parable is meant to describe the futility of trying to disprove crass rumors.
It’s clear that behind the scenes Budanov knows the real score: the AFU is in a grave, existential spiral.
Complaints from the front persist—here from Ukraine’s 79th Brigade, reporting how 20% of personnel remain after repeated meat assaults:
A new WaPo piece had an interesting blurb where an ‘anonymous aide’ claimed that Ukraine military financing was in fact halted by Trump—though confusion still swirls around this issue:
One Russian report:
Kiev is pleading with the EU and the US to urgently replace the frozen US aid. The scale of problems faced by Ukrainian grant-eaters after the ban on USAID work for 90 days is greater than it seems at first glance: "we weren't prepared for this." Ukraine's media outlets are 90% fed from the United States, and this funding was covered up for them. Further normalization of the processes can occur only in 3-6 months, so Kiev is urgently negotiating with Brussels, they are begging the Europeans to quickly throw them grants so that the flow of lies from Kiev does not stop.
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On the front, Russian forces have pushed into Dachne, west of Kurakhove, slowly collapsing the remaining large pocket there:
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦The 102nd Regiment broke through to the center of Dachnoye, advancing from Kurakhovo to Dnepropetrovsk
▪️ Assault troops from the 102nd regiment of the 150th division broke through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense from the east in Dachnoye and entered the central part of the village.
▪️ Our fighters advanced up to 1.3 km and occupied buildings in the center of Dachny.
▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces also acknowledge the breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces:
➖"Also gradually the Russians began to advance in Dachny, partially taking control of the central part and the territory to the southeast."
RVvoenkor
Much farther in the north, last time I reported about the less-talked about growing incursion over the Oskil River north of Kupyansk. Now there have been the first reports that Russian forces have captured their very first settlement on this west bank of the Kharkov region since 2022, called Dvorchnaya:
But now there are even reports that Russian heavy armor has appeared on this bridgehead for the first time, which means stable river crossings have now been established and logistics are pouring in to truly cement the growing lodgement.
Kupyanskoe direction. After the capture of Dvurechnaya, the first heavy equipment appeared on our bridgehead - it was used there, according to the enemy. There is no video yet. It was ideal to take control of the neighboring settlements and heights: Dolgenkoe, Kutkovka, Novomlynsk and Figolevka.
Near Pokrovsk, Russian forces are close to reaching the Dnepropetrovsk border:
Russian troops liberated Uspenovka and most of Novooleksandrivka; 3.5 km remained to the borders of the Dnepropetrovsk region.
There were many other small advances, for instance near Seversk, in Chasov Yar, south of Pokrovsk near Novoelyzavetovka, and Kursk region as well.
A few last items:
A Ukrainian FPV gets one of the first FPV-on-FPV kills against a Russian fiber-optic drone:
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Most have likely seen by now—an F-35A spectacularly crashed in Alaska’s Eielson Air Force Base:
It is something like the 31st total crash of the troubled airframe.
Now as of this writing, a Blackhawk helicopter has reportedly crashed into a smaller regional passenger jet in Washington DC, causing a mass casualty event with reportedly no survivors:
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Lastly, a humorous video from Matt Orfalea exposing the media’s risibly propagandistic coverage of the Ukraine war:
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Regarding the midair collision near Reagan Airport. It would have been worse if the air traffic controllers, military flight crew, and civilian flight crew had not been fully vaccinated for Covid-19. Thank you Mr Warp Speed and Dr Fauci. We can't wait for Stargate Project.
Given the fact that Russia has conquered a great deal of Ukraine's natural resources in the Donbass, and will never give them up, I think Russia has already technically "won" the war - rare earths, farmland fisheries and ports, fuel, coal, coking chemicals, steel and various lower elemental ores, Russia has taken many trillions from Ukraine. Combined with Russia's population growth from the war - several million at least fled into Russia from Ukraine at the SMO's outset, I think Russia has already achieved "technical" victory.
I guess my point is, I wonder when "enough will be enough" - I would very much like the war to end just for humanitarian and stability reasons - as cynical as the Gaza "ceasefire" is, it's nice to not have the Palestinians not being bombed to splinters (as much). I want the same for Ukraine. I don't think Trump has any real leverage over Russia but he certainly has plenty over Ukraine - hopefully he can tard wrangle Zelensky and the rest into a victory-surrender.
My final prediction - best case scenario for Ukraine - the line freezes around here, Ukraine is demilitarized but quasi let into the European Union in some form, economic stabilization etc etc. Nato is off the table obviously - not even sure why Ukraine wants to be let into Nato at this point, aside from the United States there is no firepower in Nato, Nato should be asking to join Ukraine.
Worst case scenario for Ukraine - their army routs and cracks and falls all the way back to Zaporhiza city and Kiev and digs in like termites. Everything east of the Dnieper becomes russia or at least under heavy Russian dominion, everything west of the Dnieper becomes a failed state / refugee vortex that further destabilizes the EU. The US says "aw shucks" and goes and invades panama or something.
In other words, there's no "lose scenario" for Russia now - it's either win a lot with more bloodshed or when a significant amount with less bloodshed. I don't know which path will be chosen - I wish all these sanctions and tariffs on Russia would be lifted to lower the price of food, fuel and fertilizer globally but I guess "lowering the price of eggs" has already been forgotten as a campaign promise - sigh...