Welcome back all. Hope you had a merry Christmas and happy holidays of some kind, even if just a bit of temporary internal reprieve. But for now, I’ll need you to strap in because there’s a lot of big updates and important ground to cover. We’ll dispense with the first big peacock in the room, which is Ukraine’s strike on the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk last night in its port of Feodosia on the eastern corner of Crimea.
The Black sea fleet is the weakest link. They get dunked on repeatedly. It's kind of embarrassing Russia keeps allowing nato to crap all over crimea and the black sea fleet. They literally can't stop it
I wonder why the ship was loaded with ammo and where it was headed. Given it's normal role of supplying Russian forces in Syria, I'd assume that it would have been taking the munitions to Syria and the Levant has, eh, some interesting things going on. If so, there are other actors interested in it's destruction. That doesn't necessarily mean Israel or United States necessarily got their hands dirty, but they do have good contacts in Ukrainian high command that they can control presumably.
I know you read this because you cited Putin's meeting with Shoigu in the frigate's wardroom:
Putin: "Indeed, there are at least two positive effects here. The first is that we are moving the enemy's combat units away from Donetsk. And secondly, by breaking into this fortified area, which the enemy has been building since 2014, in fact, built a significant number of reinforced concrete fortifications and communication passages there, ***by breaking into this fortified area, our troops are able to reach a wider operational space***. This is, of course, a matter for local commanders, specialists of the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense, but it is a separate issue. But, in any case, ***such an opportunity appears on this site"***. https://karlof1.substack.com/p/our-christmas-is-ordinary-work-day
My comment is the battlefield's now being shaped while Ukie lines shrink in size and manpower. The initial, 8-9+ year FEBA is finally being broken at great cost to Ukies. The scene at Maryinka is one of utter devastation, making Shoigu's description accurate. And IMO, the new major is a testimony to the survivability of Russian armor. No respite after Maryinka is also a sign.
Thank you for the article and best wishes to you for Christmas and the New Year Simplicius. I do not think the strike on the ship was effected by the scalp missiles but agree with you that either sabotage or nearby launched drone strike was the cause. It has eerie similarities to the Moskova. However, we wait and see. The Russian Mod does an expert job on being "quiet" in these situations and there maybe some foul play behind the scenes. Or a total screw up in AD, which does not fit recent history.
You know Simplicius, it’s really time for Russia to up the ante on the vile U.S Warmongers and their always willing and ever so compliant English public school, bum chum’s.
Time long overdue Vladimir Putin on behalf of his nation advise directly to the U.S, U.K, the stuttering, doddering, hand waving fool, Doltenberg, his trusty side kicks, the despicable and truly odious, Ursula “Can Always am a” Liar and “Jungle” Josep Borrell, as well as that true dropkick lame and shitzen for brains, new U.K Defence Minister, that if they persist in having personnel in a theatre of war, whilst insisting they are not in Direct Conflict with Russia, well they are now all targets, Russia has a bounty on the heads of all non Ukrainian combatants in the theatre, as for International Law, breaking the so called Rules of Engagement, well I’m sure many Russians as well as those of us around the World have a large middle index finger, we can rightly show them in response, further, any attacks on the homeland of Russia, will be treated as an act of overt aggression against the Russian State that will reserve the right to respond in kind on the homeland and cities or towns of equal size as that subject to such filth and attack.
High time this nuanced dance on a pinhead stopped, got stopped dead in its tracks, there will never ever be a better time to call these cowards out, all Russia needs to is present it’s evidence of U.S, U.K, Foreign involvement in the theatre before a special meeting of the UNSC and to make its declaration.
Then we can see them truly shitzen themselves, literally, there is no way they can respond to such a declaration, they are spent, they’ve all gotten off, shot their loads so to speak in this group orgy of unmitigated lies, death and destruction they have perpetuated, makes my blood boil, I’m heartily sick of the deceit, the lies, derision, maligning, mocking, denigrating a wonderful nation state, no worse than any other, indeed despite any shortcomings, it stacks up much better than those spreading freedom, democracy, western liberal values, the LGBTQ+, Homo, Pedophile, Transgender sex change available on 6 month olds who know for sure if they are the wrong gender, the Pedophile centric agenda underscored Gavin Newsom, California Governor legislating it’s OK, LAWFUL IN Ca, for pedophiles, actually MAPS - Minor Attracted Persons Sexually, as they’ve been redefined, rebranded, to have sex with minors just so long as the age difference isn’t greater than 10 or 11 years, truly sick and makes you wonder just what constituent base is he appealing to enacting such filth, just as bad the pre Roe v Wade precedent overturn in the SCOTUS, whereby Newsom, New York and a handful of other truly enlightened States had enacted amendments to their abortion legislation enabling abortion to include up to but not exceeding 28 days post delivery… now that is truly appeasement to Moloch, to Baal, pure evil…
Nope, time to put an end to this crap, to the greed and avarice driven billionaires who literally do “get off” fomenting, planning, coercing government into these Wars and Conflicts, wreaking chaos, death, destruction, injury, misery upon their own service men and women as well as their proxies doing the fighting on their behalf…
Either that I say or fornicate them fiscally, establish the gold backed Ruble, the Gold Backed BRICS+ SCO, EEAU trading currency, at once, hit them where it hurts most, fiscally, sure financial chaos in the west will ensue, par for the course, but this has been gamed, Russia, China, Turkey, Saudi, UAE, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Mexico, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei, along with many second tier Nations,, who will as a result eventually from the detritus resulting of such a move emerge and rightfully, victorious, as dominant economic powers taking with them many in the global south, the rest of the globe, who have had their economies manipulated through the contrived boom, bust cycles that has littered their collective economic history thus far, who have been buying the yellow stuff by the tonne, whilst the West, Europe, will sink under the weight of their debt, talk about a dichotomy, tipping it upside down, about time I say, let’s see how they manage a contrived, orchestrated economic attack, ruin, just as they enjoy subjecting the aforementioned nations to… bring it on, gloves off, never a better moment, you have to pick your moments in history to act, this is just such a moment…. everything to gain, nothing to lose… let’s watch these arses truly squirm, destroyed as they will be upon the altar of lies, debt, greed, avarice, death, war, conflict, lies, fraud and propaganda, their entire edifice built on sand, NATO weak, showen up and found out, really found out, a toothless tiger, the U.S a paper tiger, only good at bombing innocents, woman, children, wedding and funeral parties, believing their own hubris in doing so that they are exceptional…. Haha hardly, time to get real I say and put an end to this and Russia again to regain its. Place as a true superpower, the U.S, U.K, NATO choking on their gum as they walk, try to spin their way out of this mess they have perpetuated… yes sirree, bring it on, no fear, nothing to fear… Kia Kaha from New Zealand
Russia keeps letting nato 💩 all over crimea and their black sea fleet. This was done to hurt Syria. Its frustrating how they just let nato terrorists get away with it over and over again.
All the Russians really need to do is NOT fuck up. Time is most definitely on their side. That 500k mobilization campaign makes me sick. Can’t imagine what it must be like living over there. Good Lord one would have to think some Ukrainians are in the mood to take that “join forces” guy seriously.
I believe Russia, China, BRICS etc are working out of the same playbook. It’s a series of Death by a Thousand Cuts strategy. They’re going to keep finding ways to engage the US in lower intensity conflicts. This to minimize large escalations I assume where neocons might panic. Keep the US spending more money as we head into this buzzsaw of an election cycle.
The events in Yemen are getting very interesting. I don’t say that with any amusement. At some point the combined cuts could very well find their way into an artery and the bloodletting in America will begin. We are sitting atop of a financial house of cards. This hegemony must retain 2 things to stay afloat. One would be unquestioned military dominance. Two would be the unrivaled economic supreme leader. It doesn’t fly without those 2 things IMHO.
This is what our adversaries are trying to exploit. They know that optimal slippage of either would be monumental in our unraveling. A death spiral that would accelerate very fast if it were suddenly to be revealed. This is a big reason for the endless propaganda we see. Shit never ends and understandably so. It’s a civilization game changer if not ender I suspect.
Israel appears to be a direct extension of that conundrum. I suspect those in the Global South know if they can embarrass them it would be a deep blow to the heart of the GAE. Same assholes run both.
This is what I think the plan is. The GS no doubt understands what the Western Elites had/have in mind for the world. They also understand all of the friction these elites have caused domestically with their migrant dumping and clown world bullshit. When the paper tiger slips the big war will most likely be right here between us citizens. No need for our adversaries to fire a shot.
Could it even be possible that the ship exploded because of something that happened ON THE SHIP? Something such as accidental mishandling of ammunition?
“ The fact that the AD could not somehow cope with that number of missiles is a pretty damning indication of something going critically wrong with Russian planning in this sector.”
Or maybe Ukraine was right when they claimed, few months ago, that they hit many S-300/400 sites and destroy parts of the systems…
“ All these anti-aircraft missiles had been detected and identified in advance by American and British RQ-4B "Global Hawk" strategic radar reconnaissance UAVs barreling over the Black Sea 24 hours earlier.”
Does Russians Mig-31 still fly 24h over Black see with Khinzals?
Can Russia military use their radars to detect Storm Shadows and other plains…?
“ And even in the event that the surveillance radars of individual SAMs near Ordzhonikidze and Koktebel were able to detect SCALP-EG SAMs flying towards Feodosia, there was very little time left for tying up their path, capturing and intercepting them before they were hidden behind the ridges of the mountains again.”
And last note: we saw few months ago on your blog how Russians using Pantsir destroy Storm Shadow although they detect it only few km away… it was same situation wheh Storm Shadow was hidden by terrain.
The Black sea fleet is the weakest link. They get dunked on repeatedly. It's kind of embarrassing Russia keeps allowing nato to crap all over crimea and the black sea fleet. They literally can't stop it
27 December 2023 FT The EU finds some Ukraine money
EU readies E20B plan to fund Ukraine
https://www.ft.com/content/7ef39cca-262d-4c52-8b59-1ac008ca7f56
Borrow the money, maybe by March…..this would be a loans, not a grant, so it’s win win for the EU, not so much for Ukraine, if it ever comes off
Even tho’ the EIU would prefer to get Hungary on board for the usual unanimous, this makes Plan B looks a little tentative
It’s also ‘a promise’
I wonder why the ship was loaded with ammo and where it was headed. Given it's normal role of supplying Russian forces in Syria, I'd assume that it would have been taking the munitions to Syria and the Levant has, eh, some interesting things going on. If so, there are other actors interested in it's destruction. That doesn't necessarily mean Israel or United States necessarily got their hands dirty, but they do have good contacts in Ukrainian high command that they can control presumably.
I know you read this because you cited Putin's meeting with Shoigu in the frigate's wardroom:
Putin: "Indeed, there are at least two positive effects here. The first is that we are moving the enemy's combat units away from Donetsk. And secondly, by breaking into this fortified area, which the enemy has been building since 2014, in fact, built a significant number of reinforced concrete fortifications and communication passages there, ***by breaking into this fortified area, our troops are able to reach a wider operational space***. This is, of course, a matter for local commanders, specialists of the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense, but it is a separate issue. But, in any case, ***such an opportunity appears on this site"***. https://karlof1.substack.com/p/our-christmas-is-ordinary-work-day
My comment is the battlefield's now being shaped while Ukie lines shrink in size and manpower. The initial, 8-9+ year FEBA is finally being broken at great cost to Ukies. The scene at Maryinka is one of utter devastation, making Shoigu's description accurate. And IMO, the new major is a testimony to the survivability of Russian armor. No respite after Maryinka is also a sign.
Thank you for the article and best wishes to you for Christmas and the New Year Simplicius. I do not think the strike on the ship was effected by the scalp missiles but agree with you that either sabotage or nearby launched drone strike was the cause. It has eerie similarities to the Moskova. However, we wait and see. The Russian Mod does an expert job on being "quiet" in these situations and there maybe some foul play behind the scenes. Or a total screw up in AD, which does not fit recent history.
Here's a revealing peice of MSM news "With the United States stretched thin by the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip...." Full article here : https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/japan-wants-a-stronger-military-but-where-will-it-find-the-troops-20231215-p5ervj.html
You know Simplicius, it’s really time for Russia to up the ante on the vile U.S Warmongers and their always willing and ever so compliant English public school, bum chum’s.
Time long overdue Vladimir Putin on behalf of his nation advise directly to the U.S, U.K, the stuttering, doddering, hand waving fool, Doltenberg, his trusty side kicks, the despicable and truly odious, Ursula “Can Always am a” Liar and “Jungle” Josep Borrell, as well as that true dropkick lame and shitzen for brains, new U.K Defence Minister, that if they persist in having personnel in a theatre of war, whilst insisting they are not in Direct Conflict with Russia, well they are now all targets, Russia has a bounty on the heads of all non Ukrainian combatants in the theatre, as for International Law, breaking the so called Rules of Engagement, well I’m sure many Russians as well as those of us around the World have a large middle index finger, we can rightly show them in response, further, any attacks on the homeland of Russia, will be treated as an act of overt aggression against the Russian State that will reserve the right to respond in kind on the homeland and cities or towns of equal size as that subject to such filth and attack.
High time this nuanced dance on a pinhead stopped, got stopped dead in its tracks, there will never ever be a better time to call these cowards out, all Russia needs to is present it’s evidence of U.S, U.K, Foreign involvement in the theatre before a special meeting of the UNSC and to make its declaration.
Then we can see them truly shitzen themselves, literally, there is no way they can respond to such a declaration, they are spent, they’ve all gotten off, shot their loads so to speak in this group orgy of unmitigated lies, death and destruction they have perpetuated, makes my blood boil, I’m heartily sick of the deceit, the lies, derision, maligning, mocking, denigrating a wonderful nation state, no worse than any other, indeed despite any shortcomings, it stacks up much better than those spreading freedom, democracy, western liberal values, the LGBTQ+, Homo, Pedophile, Transgender sex change available on 6 month olds who know for sure if they are the wrong gender, the Pedophile centric agenda underscored Gavin Newsom, California Governor legislating it’s OK, LAWFUL IN Ca, for pedophiles, actually MAPS - Minor Attracted Persons Sexually, as they’ve been redefined, rebranded, to have sex with minors just so long as the age difference isn’t greater than 10 or 11 years, truly sick and makes you wonder just what constituent base is he appealing to enacting such filth, just as bad the pre Roe v Wade precedent overturn in the SCOTUS, whereby Newsom, New York and a handful of other truly enlightened States had enacted amendments to their abortion legislation enabling abortion to include up to but not exceeding 28 days post delivery… now that is truly appeasement to Moloch, to Baal, pure evil…
Nope, time to put an end to this crap, to the greed and avarice driven billionaires who literally do “get off” fomenting, planning, coercing government into these Wars and Conflicts, wreaking chaos, death, destruction, injury, misery upon their own service men and women as well as their proxies doing the fighting on their behalf…
Either that I say or fornicate them fiscally, establish the gold backed Ruble, the Gold Backed BRICS+ SCO, EEAU trading currency, at once, hit them where it hurts most, fiscally, sure financial chaos in the west will ensue, par for the course, but this has been gamed, Russia, China, Turkey, Saudi, UAE, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Mexico, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei, along with many second tier Nations,, who will as a result eventually from the detritus resulting of such a move emerge and rightfully, victorious, as dominant economic powers taking with them many in the global south, the rest of the globe, who have had their economies manipulated through the contrived boom, bust cycles that has littered their collective economic history thus far, who have been buying the yellow stuff by the tonne, whilst the West, Europe, will sink under the weight of their debt, talk about a dichotomy, tipping it upside down, about time I say, let’s see how they manage a contrived, orchestrated economic attack, ruin, just as they enjoy subjecting the aforementioned nations to… bring it on, gloves off, never a better moment, you have to pick your moments in history to act, this is just such a moment…. everything to gain, nothing to lose… let’s watch these arses truly squirm, destroyed as they will be upon the altar of lies, debt, greed, avarice, death, war, conflict, lies, fraud and propaganda, their entire edifice built on sand, NATO weak, showen up and found out, really found out, a toothless tiger, the U.S a paper tiger, only good at bombing innocents, woman, children, wedding and funeral parties, believing their own hubris in doing so that they are exceptional…. Haha hardly, time to get real I say and put an end to this and Russia again to regain its. Place as a true superpower, the U.S, U.K, NATO choking on their gum as they walk, try to spin their way out of this mess they have perpetuated… yes sirree, bring it on, no fear, nothing to fear… Kia Kaha from New Zealand
Looks like Russia is not denergizing Ukraine this winter.
Russia keeps letting nato 💩 all over crimea and their black sea fleet. This was done to hurt Syria. Its frustrating how they just let nato terrorists get away with it over and over again.
All the Russians really need to do is NOT fuck up. Time is most definitely on their side. That 500k mobilization campaign makes me sick. Can’t imagine what it must be like living over there. Good Lord one would have to think some Ukrainians are in the mood to take that “join forces” guy seriously.
I believe Russia, China, BRICS etc are working out of the same playbook. It’s a series of Death by a Thousand Cuts strategy. They’re going to keep finding ways to engage the US in lower intensity conflicts. This to minimize large escalations I assume where neocons might panic. Keep the US spending more money as we head into this buzzsaw of an election cycle.
The events in Yemen are getting very interesting. I don’t say that with any amusement. At some point the combined cuts could very well find their way into an artery and the bloodletting in America will begin. We are sitting atop of a financial house of cards. This hegemony must retain 2 things to stay afloat. One would be unquestioned military dominance. Two would be the unrivaled economic supreme leader. It doesn’t fly without those 2 things IMHO.
This is what our adversaries are trying to exploit. They know that optimal slippage of either would be monumental in our unraveling. A death spiral that would accelerate very fast if it were suddenly to be revealed. This is a big reason for the endless propaganda we see. Shit never ends and understandably so. It’s a civilization game changer if not ender I suspect.
Israel appears to be a direct extension of that conundrum. I suspect those in the Global South know if they can embarrass them it would be a deep blow to the heart of the GAE. Same assholes run both.
This is what I think the plan is. The GS no doubt understands what the Western Elites had/have in mind for the world. They also understand all of the friction these elites have caused domestically with their migrant dumping and clown world bullshit. When the paper tiger slips the big war will most likely be right here between us citizens. No need for our adversaries to fire a shot.
There is a video of naval drone strike!!!
Not Storm Shadow missile!
Could it even be possible that the ship exploded because of something that happened ON THE SHIP? Something such as accidental mishandling of ammunition?
“ The fact that the AD could not somehow cope with that number of missiles is a pretty damning indication of something going critically wrong with Russian planning in this sector.”
Or maybe Ukraine was right when they claimed, few months ago, that they hit many S-300/400 sites and destroy parts of the systems…
“ All these anti-aircraft missiles had been detected and identified in advance by American and British RQ-4B "Global Hawk" strategic radar reconnaissance UAVs barreling over the Black Sea 24 hours earlier.”
Does Russians Mig-31 still fly 24h over Black see with Khinzals?
Can Russia military use their radars to detect Storm Shadows and other plains…?
Russia has never been an air power or a naval power. It is a land power, and always will be
That said, while Ukr seems to be taking heavy casualties, there is still a large amount of equipment which remains un-destroyed
This war has years to run
“ And even in the event that the surveillance radars of individual SAMs near Ordzhonikidze and Koktebel were able to detect SCALP-EG SAMs flying towards Feodosia, there was very little time left for tying up their path, capturing and intercepting them before they were hidden behind the ridges of the mountains again.”
And last note: we saw few months ago on your blog how Russians using Pantsir destroy Storm Shadow although they detect it only few km away… it was same situation wheh Storm Shadow was hidden by terrain.