That would be hilarious. NATO would get its shit pushed in worse than Ukraine. Would instantly transform to a war instead of SMO every NATO command center, satellite, officials homes, , parliaments of those involved, TV stations, power, water, etc would be destroyed. NATO could not even operate.
I'd almost like to see them try it but USA would use nukes in fits of rages after all it's missiles and aircraft failed to make a dent on Russia whos at least 2 gens ahead on AA.
The only hypersonic USA has is good enough MACH 22 trident IIs bye bye world
Maybe they threw out the schematics for them, too. And the maintenance staff gone to contractor hell and retired early. Maybe they can do what the Brits do, use Linkedin.
NATO forces couldn't defeat goat herders in Afghanistan or lightly armed Vietnamese...They would get slaughtered by Russia's battle hardened and technologically advanced forces...Then what?
That would be critical thinking - not in the KPI or review documents. They could hold some seminars, get a focus group going and then put out a position paper.
Recently what one sees, or is reported, of Nato 'commanders' speeches does not resemble the result of any process of, or alike, 'thought'
The recent screw up about 20 years war with Russia, Europe is invaded and so on - has no meaning other than as attempts to propagandise the USEU polloi
It is hard to believe that the peoples of USEU are quite so stupid, oppressed and naive as to believe anything that their ruling classes state
However many commentors claim that this is in fact the case - in which case the polloi merely get what they deserve
and who is 'NATO leader' exactly? Talking head secretary who lies constantly in his 'assessment' and forgot that his role is to STFU and be a coordinator, he is not a decision maker. The cardboard cutout that pretends to be my president that says hi to ghosts and unable to complete a single press conference before fucking it up for USofA ('dictator', etc)? Who is 'NATO leader' that has decision making power and would go to his population stating we all decided to kill each and every one of you (and your families) because whatever, rainbow rights in former Ukraine? Name one?
There's not even any 'NATO forces' are there? All the forces are provided by member nations. As those member nations choose. If they went to war it'd be like a committee going to war. And what a committee. Every sly cheating back stabbing unreliable tricky lying unscrupulous prevaricating **it brain in the (western) world.
They don't even know what hardball is.
Get a call in your twee little trendy suburban cottage or your super sophisticated townhouse that says 'check the blahblah hotel this morning' and you check and someone just flew out of the window to their death - all of a sudden you temper your bigmouth 'demands' and 'promises' in the public forums or halls of 'power'.
These Russians and Ukrainians etc. - and that American CIA - they're dead set down and dirty and habitually simply killing people who get in the way. That's the impression I get. Haven't we had two or three or more clear assassinations in Kiev Ukraine during the course of this thing for instance?
Well it seems to me that if these fancy nancy playboys like that French dude and that whacker English bloke start doing things that the Slavs ( or the CIA ) find somewhat grim they could suddenly find themselves at the wrong end of a John Le Carre thriller.
Yep. Not to pussyfoot around my prophesy is that let this famous 'NATO' collection of schoolboys start getting seriously troublesome and some of them are going to come hurtling out of windows.
I think the good guys are the Slavs but I know they play for real. Well they have the legacy of the Stalin era and the legacy of 20 million dead in WWII.
And I think the bad guys are the oligarchs who run the sleepwalking americans. And I know their tool is the CIA which revels in assassination, destruction, death, torture and all things vile and evil.
So they're - these poncy playboys - going to be caught between a rock and a hard place.
Don't assume they are developing an army to "fight" MIC is the biggest money laundering kick back scheme growing. They will pretend sure, but it is really just getting in on the grift. 10% here, 20% there. The business model everywhere now is mob boss /criminal pay off.
G'day Arthur, no one talks of the raw young recruits who stopped the Japanese descent south at Isurava before Churchill was forced to release Australian forces he wanted to keep for his own European campaign who were able to reinforce them. Also that Britain's surrender in Singapore was vigorously opposed by Australian troops whose respect of authority was not so deeply indoctrinated as in the British army though surely this is no comparison to the valour and loss of life experienced by the Russians civilian during the same year. Yet of quite significant comparison.
Agreed, and they'd have to start conscription in the UK before thinking it. But let's not underestimate the blatant attempt to increase tension whilst drumming with the WW3 propaganda.
RF will do to Nato as it it has already been doing to Nato - what's the problem - Nato is already involved, or have you no knowledge of what is going on?
Biden will do as he is told - what you westies call, I believe, a sock puppet
'once NATO intervenes'?? it already did, NATO intelligence, NATO funding, NATO advisors, NATO equipment, NATO teams on the ground (i.e. French in Kharkov), etc.
RU will do what it does - demilitarize and denazify. again see Kharkov. How did waiting NATO flags and singing prayers to Article 5 help those merc/not-merc/advisors/we-dont-it-in-France/but-we-actually-do-it poor soul? so RU will blast those 'exercisers' or 'peace keeping force' or 'Kiev junta occupation force' or whatever the mission's name they give them out of the sky and then ask NATO - do you feel lucky, punk?
This is not gonna happen. NATO forces will never directly and openly enter Ukraine. What their 100k forces will do against 1M+ Russian forces? It will be bloodbath for them they never seen before. They are also really very afraid to directly face with the Russian army. In the past year not very smart Britain Minister of defence once said that they gonna send their military instructors to Ukraine and also 2 military ships. Medvedev reacted to this by saying that the fools in London apparently really want to become a legitimate target for Russian missiles. Russia had previously warned everyone more than once that sending a military contingent to Ukraine by any country would be considered by Russia as a declaration of war. Rishi Sunak turned out to be a little smarter than his imbecile minister and said that this was not what he really meant and that Britain was not going to send any of its military to Ukraine. Even if NATO would be able to defeat Russia in conventional warfare, what's next? Russia still has biggest amount of nuclear weapons. Russian strategic nuclear missile forces can annihilate whole NATO and turn all territories of NATO countries into radioactive dust. So even if they will win they all gonna die.
Knowing how twisted Straussian neocon thinking can be, I imagine there is more to these Ukrainians in Europe than just insurgency.
The west lost its foreign legions, the Wahhabi militants, the IDF, and the AFU. They are likely seeking to reconstitute a new one out of refugees. Citizenship in exchange for military service. It's happening in the US with Central American migrants.
the US military was always able to enlist non-citizens. They were not numerous. Now the military cannot attract any decent recruits or American ones, so they opt for illegals. This is where the USA is today, folks, in the middle of a swamp and sinking.
Just 1 of many reasons for a wide open border. What happens when the "free help" for millions of unskilled laborers runs out and they begin to realize there are no jobs for them??? They all cannot join the military
And I have a sinking feeling those non-American troops will be used against "disobedient" Americans. Rome fell when it began using foreign troops who had no regard for Roman ways, other than a paycheck.
indeed, when the USG has nothing but failure in its efforts to dominate the world militarily, it will bring home those troops and use them to keep the border open and punish Americans. I always say, it's weird how time is accelerating. Rome lasted a millenium from start to finish. We won't last much more than 250 years.
A sunnier thought is that after Ukrainian expatriates realize they were used as proxies and their nation destroyed by the West, they will take revenge with acts of terror in EU capitols - chickens coming home to roost.
I wonder if the only reason for Zelensky still being here is that no-one wants the odium of surrendering to the Allies. Zelensky cannot escape the Rathenau role.
We've heard this regarding the summer offensive, and Bakhmut/Artemovsk before that. I'll believe it when I see it. Right now Russia is losing fewer men per day by going "slow", but that comes at a cost: Which is that making breakthroughs is all but impossible, because in the 3-6 months it takes Russia to smash a Ukrainian defensive line, Ukraine just builds another one further back, so they need to go city by city, trench by trench, instead of the sort of progress they made during the opening months. And because the combination of large amount of ISR and widespread precision guided weapons (FPV) heavily disfavours the assaulting forces out in the open, a spearhead offensive is prohibitively costly for Russia. And they still have 7-8 oblasts East of the Dnyeper to retreat line by line. Unless something fundamental changes in the battlefield conditions, I would predict no large breakthroughs in the forseeable future. I would also predict the country itself collapsing due to internal problems before the AFU collapsing. The fact that Ukraine during the summer threw so much "meat" into the offensive proves they still had more bodies coming in than being lost being on the defensive in spring 2023 (when forces were put together, despite the "heavy attrition" of the Bakhmut battles). But they need to deal with increasing budget deficits, declining tax revenues and financial support, etc.
As usual you must be getting your facts from the Ukrop gov. These defensive fortifications were built a decade ago, when they fall, there is no building a new 1. Stay tuned and you will find out the Russian General Staff has completely figured out NATO's idiot commanders'
Okay, serious question: where do you see the Russian offensive to break into the AFU's rear happening? Wherever I see large Russian armoured column pushes, anywhere on the frontline (even in places that Ukraine just took this summer, like Andreevka), I see them taking significant casualties, if not in manpower, then at the very least in equipment due to FPVs and landmines. It looks eerily similar to the entire Ukraine summer offensive clusterfuck. And I don't think longer armoured columns will solve the problem. The only feasible way I see Russia break through is if they make massive aireal troop landings in the strategic rear. If they manage to punch through to the strategic rear, they might be able to maneuver into the AFU's undefendes rear, and collapse a larger front line. But still, in the opening, rapid advance stage of the SMO, even where there was nowhere near the current level of organised Ukrainian resistance, Russia took it's most steep losses, especially in rotary winged aircraft.
OR Russia could wait it out, maintain the current pace, until Ukraine collapses under it's own weight. Which is what I think they are going for. I think Russia right now is only pushing out into the open and out of their EW protection bubbles to put pressure on the AFU, so they can't get away with husbanding their well-trained troops in the rear and manning the frontilne with the nore replaceable freshly mobilised meat.
It seems that we indeed intend to go slowly. We are actually happy to prolong this war. There is no risk of Ukraine winning. But the people are energized by the idea that something is changing. A lot of people enlist for contracts in the army. That probably seems like a good idea to my government at the moment.
I'm taking my estimates from how much time Russia took. They've built 3-4 lines of defense in about 8 months, or thereabouts. Ukraine obviously doesn't have the resources to do that sort of speed, only a fraction of that, but by the way it's looking, they can still outpace the Russian progress even if they go at a speed which is just 25% of what Russia could do. And obviously they won't be able to create such hard nuts to crack as Avdeevka, but look across the front line: Russia is moving inch by inch not just in fortresses like Avdeevka, but basically all across the the line of contact, even in places where there are no strategic height advantages or reinforced concrete structures, even in places where Ukraine hadn't had time to dig in deep, like Robotyne. Now obvioulsy, Russia is in no hurry to push into that small village, but as we seen in many places across the frontline, pushing harder into the enemy defensive line will get you killed.
We shall see what the Russian Kharkiv offensive will bring, but for now, beating the speed of UA building defenses doesn't seem feasable to me, unless Russia is willing to take massive losses.
Question for you sir and/or Simplicius: Let’s say NATO starts shelling their own citizens in Europe and naturally claims Russia is doing it.
How does Russia respond? It would no doubt be to get the W Europeans on board for war. There seems to be a high probability of this happening IMO. This could just as easily happen in the US too I would think?
Ukraine is not prime for an insurgency. The one thing that all successful insurgencies have in common is a young population. The median age in Yemen is around 19 years old. The median age in Ukraine is over 40, and that from before the war.
Not just that: the population will be totally demoralised and sick of war, just like 1945 Nazi Germany. The allies feared the Werewolf insurgency the Nazis were trying to set up, but when it came to it, it just fizzled out. Plus we have had a fortunate culling of Ukronazis. Don't see them posting on telegram any more, showing off their tattoos.
We last saw Zelensky at Davos/ WEF meeting. He is a hero there for depopulating the Slavs of the Ukraine, and selling his country to Blackrock. He is doing a great job, according to the WEF. Makes perfect sense to them; give him more money.
Thought about this “shift from war to insurgency in rump state” scenario last night after hearing it on the Duran. Gotta ask: do you really think the Russians will not finish the job and prevent this outcome? I mean, do all this but leave a trouble-making NATO funded band of insurgents in the corner of Ukraine? Has no one among the neocons been paying attention? (Rhetorical question). This will not be allowed. Dream on, neocons.
Russia is a very capable Martial society that will garner lots of success, no doubt.
The problem with 'rebel armies' is that unlike conventional armies, the way they 'win' is by surviving & attriting away soldiers.
What I think the 'plan' is at present is building a band of small, ultra-Nazi crazies to do just that. The objective is to turn Ukraine into "Russia's Iraq."
But as you said, Russia may fully annex Ukraine to deal with the matter.
To defeat an insurgency, you have to win over the people from whom they are birthed.
I have thought for some time the obvious ploy is to use the Ukranian nazis domestically in order to "jusify" a crackdown on our remaining liberties. Al-CIAduh 2.0...
- A50, shot down or not? The whole thing gone quiet on Ru side
- With all the failed attacks in Northern Avdiivka, how come (according to Mediazona) Ru casualties are still low? I been seeing a lot of drone footage and its pretty gruesome.
- Whats your sense of Ukr transitioning to a mass terror campaign, targeting civlians in Russia? Duran guys sense that Budanov wants to do this and Zelensky will back him
The last refuge of the defeated is terrorism. I don't doubt at all that Ze will turn to this. But it will not last long nor will it have any strategic effect whatsoever. I agree with Medvedev - Ukraine will be Russia and their people, being practical, will accept living as Russians as opposed to dying.
A50 not shot down, debunked within hours. You see drone footage because you seek it. It's the only thing killing soldiers right now as Ukraine has no other effective munitions. When you uncritically absorb the propaganda the enemy so helpfully shovels towards you, you begin to believe in it. Simple as.
If you think that's what I said, you're stupid. Turns out, when you put a camera on every drone you have that's all but replaced every artillery shell and rocket on the tactical level, there's more deaths on camera! Genius! Does that affect the overall numbers? No! Does it make for good propaganda to fool an idiot with? Absolutely.
Uh, I haven't seen a debunking of the A50 shootdown. I have seen of the IL-22 shootdown debunking, thats clear, because the plane landed and there's a photo of it. But even then, its clear that bird took a hit and now its reported that the commander succumbed to his wounds. But the A50 nothing. Some are saying that the plane is the same plane, some are saying its a replacement. In fact I've even read Ru channels posting rumors of obituaries. There hasn't been a lot of clarity on it. The Ukr side has posted a radar trace. Is it convincing? Maybe, maybe not. Why does it matter? The A50 is a force multiplier, a single one of those in the air makes the entirety of Ru AD and anti-air far more effective. So asking Simplicious to comment on it is not such a big deal because I respect his analysis. If simply asking that question offends you so much, then you have a problem, not me.
- A50. no. no confirmation from UA, no acknowledgement from RU yet. RU does not hide such facts at all as they are impossible to hide anyway.
- what failed attacks? also careful with drone footage as time after time after time it was shown UA recycles trash (video game footage, old footage , badly edited videos) to show 'progress'. I would not touch anything coming from UA side with 100 ft pole unless it is fully confirmed. All of their information (from Ghost of Kiev to Siege of Kiev to Bucha to Krematorsk strike to really everything) shown to be fairly badly made propaganda. the key here is 'bad' (all sides push their message)
- they can try. wouldn't do shit to change situation on the ground, only harden RU resolve and further split former UA society. I was in RU back when Chechen wars happened and remember girl suicide bombers, airport/train stations attack, civ target attacks (schools, theaters). How did that work out for US supported rebels? How did that impacted RU public opinion? Мочить даже в сортире - kill (them) everywhere, is from that period.
Ya Ru side is pretty straightforward. But my curiosity about the A50 remains. Remember that it was when it was sent up that the AFU lost 20+ aircraft inside of a week, with Ru demonstrating that they can guide AD missiles from awacs aircraft.
There hasn't been a "debunking", there just hasn't been anything. Unless I missed it.
what is there to debunk beyond 'we cannot confirm' or 'we have no such information' :) that is as official as debunking as it gets. UA psyops routinely come out with crazy messages (Crimea is 100% pro nazi and ready to 'rise', Russia run out of food and eats crows, you already heard about washing machine chips, etc). Waste time to respond to any of that? Poor, illiterate 'orc hordes', starving and never saw indoor plumbing (or toasters, or fridges, or paved roads) all coming over to this prosperous 'free' , 'democratic' nation to steal washing machines. UA psyops is trash..
They went to the trouble to show the IL-22, took a photo of it. They didn't do anything for the A50. Not saying that means anything - maybe Ukr thought they were shooting at the A50 and actually were shooting at the IL-22, and there is no A50 to show. Anyway thanks for your responses.
One thing about US & NATO weapons: to my understanding, mostly older and obsolete weapon platforms have been sent. It seems to me the top shelf weapon systems, operated by fully trained personnel would fare better in combat, no? It goes without saying that NATO tactics are inferior to Russian ones, and Russia has weapons in stock they've not used (Felon, Checkmate). Overall, NATO wouldn't stand a chance as currently constructed.
I suspect the few top-shelf NATO weapons sent to Ukraine were operated by NATO soldiers ("mercenaries").. Even if NATO is holding back some of its best weapons (which I doubt), they simply do not have the industrial base to last very long and their supply chain is far too long and complex to be of much lasting value.
i think that's very likely. training Ukrainians to use some of that top end tech like the Patriot missiles and radars or the Storm-Shadows in a few moths simply isn't possible. And this tech has to be carefully guarded. Those Ukrainian units sent for NATO training would be infiltrated with Moscow agents and sympathizers.
"mostly older and obsolete weapon platforms have been sent."
Because that is what the US and NATO mostly has. It is a myth that NATO's forces are more modern than Russia's. The vast majority of primary weapons systems in the west are decades old types. For example:
US air force:
- F16's? From the 70's
- F15's? From the 70's
- F18's? From the 80's
- B1's? From the 70's
- B52's? From the 50's
Those account for the vast majority of US combat aircraft. It's the same for the Navy and Army, most of their available platforms are from the 70's and 80's. Most of the rest of NATO is as bad or worse.
True dat. US submarines are the only weapon platform worth a shit. Even then, Columbia and SSNx class are in their infancy. Meanwhile the Russians have their next generation subs underway, and with natural circulation as the primary means for reactor cooling .
The operational airframes the US Air Force relies on are on average 28 years old, and pilots, on average, fly only 6-8 hours per month. That's not going to win a major war.
"Товарищ, я навалил в штаны!" (Tovarisch, ya navalil v shtany). And if you mean "got pants full of shit drunk" then it would be something like "Товарищ, я нажрался в говно" (Tovarisch, ya nazhralsya v govno).
Tell your Russian friends and neighbors that a lot, perhaps most people in the West have no problem backing a fight.
But they can see right through the Dirty Bastards and Bitches in the U.S. and Europe who want to see our children dead from stupid, completely unnecessary wars.
Finding a way to work together with Russia still requires kicking a lot of dirty asses out here in the West.
It's sad that so many will die for what was always going to be a Russian victory. The west has never shown any sort of strategy, other than pumping US Defense spending.
Pyschopaths have one strategy--get the money and power and who cares about the rest. Ukraine is the biggest washing machine that ever existed. And no Russia does not need its "chips" to run its military Ursula.🙄
a) struggles to understand derjavna mova (state language, aka new ukranian they are making up on the fly)
b) pretends to not understand Russian, spoken by 85% of population and asks for translators from his native language to a foreign language of tiny minority
it would be like our Joe claiming to never spoken English , asked for all questions to be in Spanish and a translator from English to Spanish for himself.
there was a recent research , done in Kiev of all places. for native language of preschoolers (called kindergarten in RU/UA). Results
- 15% are speaking native ukranian
- 20% are speaking pure, native russian
- 65% are speaking russian with UA words called суржик which are a bunch of dialects , usually rurals.
So there is no unified nation of 'ukrainians'. it is at best a bi-lingual country that totally outlawed one of the languages (which started a civil war).
Imagine Canada in which French minority staged a armed coup with China support and then declared
- English is a language of occupiers
- English is outlawed
- all schools in English are closed
- all people who are still speaking in English should be publicly shamed, beaten, arrested, fined.
while English is 80% of the population of Canada! How would that go? And that is why Ukraine is dying, population does not support crazy minority and as much as they try to drum up 'defense of motherland from aggression', it does not work
Brilliant sir. I will be supporting you again in my own small way in the near future. This does not adequately reflect my admiration for your extraordinary work. Thanks again.
"Avdeevka is taking far longer than many imagined, as some believed it would fall by the end of last year. At this pace it could likely hold another three months if not even longer. It may very well hold for six months, however in the end it will certainly fall."
Simplicius headline today: "AFU Defense Collapses in Avdeevka."
LOL I'm mostly uninterested in Ukraine at this point. From here on out, it's anti-climatic. The new focus is Palestine and I'll be spending some time trying to put together a decent recap of that history and the correct solution - and the solution that will likely actually occur.
Since you've outed yourself as a clot shot taking, WEF/WHO narrative absorbing compliant sheep, I'm sure no one gives a fuck about your opinions on any subject, excepting maybe how to be a cowardly vaxtard.
That's the absolute beauty of following facts on the ground, rather than the narrative. Situations change quickly, and the writer is allowed to change his mind. It's up to you whether you believe it or not, or find it anticlimatic. No one is forcing you to read this Substack or insult its author. Good luck on figuring out the 'correct solution' for Palestine...rather funny you are. Bye now
why stop there? plenty of conflict (including war) around the world. Libia never settled down, Syria is a mess, Iraq is a hot mess, Yemen, the 3 way Saudi/UAE/Iran shitshow.
and 'Palestine' is going on much longer than any one of those - Islamic terrorists (Hamas) did a major terrorist act (mass murder of civilians on a huge scale), israelis (who are not all jews) dared to fight back and instantly became cries of 'genocide' and all of those BS claims we see all of the time (including that parking lot in the hospital attack which was Hamas doing). Plenty of parallels with Ukraine - externally installed tools (Hamas and Kiev regime) who illegally overthrew local governments (maidan putch and Hamas fight with PLA/Fatah), funded by extermists from abroad (US neocons/NATO and Qatar and its wahhabi networks). Local population are hostages that can not leave (Hamas will shoot you on site if you try to escape Gaza concentration camp of 'free Palestine'). and same BS 'occupation narratives' - Russians are 'occupiers' for the very city they founded (each and every major city in 'Ukraine'). Israelies who fucking lived on this land continuously for FOUR THOUSAND YEARS, many many centuries before first Arab (or Muslim) ever appeared, are 'occupiers'. depressing piles of lies in both cases, same BS propaganda.
Just a layman's question here. Is the Russian language itself, at all levels including weapons software, proving a major obstacle to western efficacy in Ukraine? It was a major issue in Iraq. For all the billions spent and thousands of personnel, no-one was interested in learning the language. Total reliance on interpreters. Caused huge problems.
Nope. Literally everyone in Ukraine can speak, read and write on Russian. Same for the Baltic States. A lot of people from the former Warsaw Treaty who are now in NATO also have no problems with the Russian language. When you consider Russia and Ukraine, it is in many ways also that the US and Canada, France and Belgium, Germany and Austria, and so on.
Yes, thanks, that part is understood. Was just wondering tho if the Brits and Americans over there are totally dependent. And coming back to the evolution of weapons systems, does Russia have an advantage because the 'code' is not in English?
English is the language of global communication. Thanks to Pax Americana. A significant part of the post-Soviet generations understands English and speaks English with varying degrees of success.
I think it's more India than Iraq if we keep using comparisons. Or, say, Algeria for the French.
As for the "code", then a specialist is needed, but as far as I know, the Russian military uses ordinary variations of Linux and Android. The only country I know of that makes completely original software is China. And they are still in the process.
The Russian "code" advantage is that the Russian language itself has a grammar and syntax construction that is very similar to computer languages. This is why Russia has a very robust software industry, Russian programmers "think" like a computer...
I don't know what Russia will do, but I will finish my fallout shelter and last minute nuclear war prep.
Me, I will go outside and bask for that ultimate quick suntan.
No-one will be spared at this point; there are just too many warheads with too large a yield compared with last century.
That's probably the best plan, but I don't live near any likely targets. Slow death of starvation would be my likely fate.
That would be hilarious. NATO would get its shit pushed in worse than Ukraine. Would instantly transform to a war instead of SMO every NATO command center, satellite, officials homes, , parliaments of those involved, TV stations, power, water, etc would be destroyed. NATO could not even operate.
I'd almost like to see them try it but USA would use nukes in fits of rages after all it's missiles and aircraft failed to make a dent on Russia whos at least 2 gens ahead on AA.
The only hypersonic USA has is good enough MACH 22 trident IIs bye bye world
If any of their Tridents still work.
Maybe they threw out the schematics for them, too. And the maintenance staff gone to contractor hell and retired early. Maybe they can do what the Brits do, use Linkedin.
NATO forces couldn't defeat goat herders in Afghanistan or lightly armed Vietnamese...They would get slaughtered by Russia's battle hardened and technologically advanced forces...Then what?
Nato leaders do not 'think'
That would be critical thinking - not in the KPI or review documents. They could hold some seminars, get a focus group going and then put out a position paper.
They could?
Recently what one sees, or is reported, of Nato 'commanders' speeches does not resemble the result of any process of, or alike, 'thought'
The recent screw up about 20 years war with Russia, Europe is invaded and so on - has no meaning other than as attempts to propagandise the USEU polloi
It is hard to believe that the peoples of USEU are quite so stupid, oppressed and naive as to believe anything that their ruling classes state
However many commentors claim that this is in fact the case - in which case the polloi merely get what they deserve
and who is 'NATO leader' exactly? Talking head secretary who lies constantly in his 'assessment' and forgot that his role is to STFU and be a coordinator, he is not a decision maker. The cardboard cutout that pretends to be my president that says hi to ghosts and unable to complete a single press conference before fucking it up for USofA ('dictator', etc)? Who is 'NATO leader' that has decision making power and would go to his population stating we all decided to kill each and every one of you (and your families) because whatever, rainbow rights in former Ukraine? Name one?
There's not even any 'NATO forces' are there? All the forces are provided by member nations. As those member nations choose. If they went to war it'd be like a committee going to war. And what a committee. Every sly cheating back stabbing unreliable tricky lying unscrupulous prevaricating **it brain in the (western) world.
They don't even know what hardball is.
Get a call in your twee little trendy suburban cottage or your super sophisticated townhouse that says 'check the blahblah hotel this morning' and you check and someone just flew out of the window to their death - all of a sudden you temper your bigmouth 'demands' and 'promises' in the public forums or halls of 'power'.
These Russians and Ukrainians etc. - and that American CIA - they're dead set down and dirty and habitually simply killing people who get in the way. That's the impression I get. Haven't we had two or three or more clear assassinations in Kiev Ukraine during the course of this thing for instance?
Well it seems to me that if these fancy nancy playboys like that French dude and that whacker English bloke start doing things that the Slavs ( or the CIA ) find somewhat grim they could suddenly find themselves at the wrong end of a John Le Carre thriller.
Yep. Not to pussyfoot around my prophesy is that let this famous 'NATO' collection of schoolboys start getting seriously troublesome and some of them are going to come hurtling out of windows.
I think the good guys are the Slavs but I know they play for real. Well they have the legacy of the Stalin era and the legacy of 20 million dead in WWII.
And I think the bad guys are the oligarchs who run the sleepwalking americans. And I know their tool is the CIA which revels in assassination, destruction, death, torture and all things vile and evil.
So they're - these poncy playboys - going to be caught between a rock and a hard place.
And I hope they get crushed to death.
cia killed jfk and mossad helped kill ameriacans 9/11 and uss liberty. We know them now.
Don't assume they are developing an army to "fight" MIC is the biggest money laundering kick back scheme growing. They will pretend sure, but it is really just getting in on the grift. 10% here, 20% there. The business model everywhere now is mob boss /criminal pay off.
G'day Arthur, no one talks of the raw young recruits who stopped the Japanese descent south at Isurava before Churchill was forced to release Australian forces he wanted to keep for his own European campaign who were able to reinforce them. Also that Britain's surrender in Singapore was vigorously opposed by Australian troops whose respect of authority was not so deeply indoctrinated as in the British army though surely this is no comparison to the valour and loss of life experienced by the Russians civilian during the same year. Yet of quite significant comparison.
Every year NATO holds exercises.
Every year someone predicts a NATO invasion "under cover of its planned exercises".
Every year nothing happens.
Because NATO has no capability to invade anyone - other than maybe Monaco.
They don't admit it but NATO is scared shitless of Russia.
Oh I don't know, the Monégasques are looking a bit tasty this year. ;O)
serbia, libya, iraq, afghanistan. NATO still has some capability to destroy.
I think you should check the dates on when those 'wars' happened. A lot has changed since then, and not in favour of NATO capabilities.
I am well aware of the time lines involved. You should study up om world destruction weapons instead.
The U.S./NATO only directly fight 2nd rate countries with 3rd rate equipment. Against NATO's second rate equipment.
p.s.
Russia is kicking the Brits out of the Barents Sea.
Russia can feed herself.
The Brits need to find 566,000 tons of Cod and Haddock from somewhere else.
Agreed, and they'd have to start conscription in the UK before thinking it. But let's not underestimate the blatant attempt to increase tension whilst drumming with the WW3 propaganda.
Every year people talked about planned epidemics and genocide wars. Every year it did not happen. Until 2020
tsk tsk - this is mere scaremongering
RF will do to Nato as it it has already been doing to Nato - what's the problem - Nato is already involved, or have you no knowledge of what is going on?
Biden will do as he is told - what you westies call, I believe, a sock puppet
Correction.
Biden is a dirty sock puppet.
'once NATO intervenes'?? it already did, NATO intelligence, NATO funding, NATO advisors, NATO equipment, NATO teams on the ground (i.e. French in Kharkov), etc.
RU will do what it does - demilitarize and denazify. again see Kharkov. How did waiting NATO flags and singing prayers to Article 5 help those merc/not-merc/advisors/we-dont-it-in-France/but-we-actually-do-it poor soul? so RU will blast those 'exercisers' or 'peace keeping force' or 'Kiev junta occupation force' or whatever the mission's name they give them out of the sky and then ask NATO - do you feel lucky, punk?
This is not gonna happen. NATO forces will never directly and openly enter Ukraine. What their 100k forces will do against 1M+ Russian forces? It will be bloodbath for them they never seen before. They are also really very afraid to directly face with the Russian army. In the past year not very smart Britain Minister of defence once said that they gonna send their military instructors to Ukraine and also 2 military ships. Medvedev reacted to this by saying that the fools in London apparently really want to become a legitimate target for Russian missiles. Russia had previously warned everyone more than once that sending a military contingent to Ukraine by any country would be considered by Russia as a declaration of war. Rishi Sunak turned out to be a little smarter than his imbecile minister and said that this was not what he really meant and that Britain was not going to send any of its military to Ukraine. Even if NATO would be able to defeat Russia in conventional warfare, what's next? Russia still has biggest amount of nuclear weapons. Russian strategic nuclear missile forces can annihilate whole NATO and turn all territories of NATO countries into radioactive dust. So even if they will win they all gonna die.
As Avdeevka goes, so goes Ukraine!
The shift now will probably be towards a "High-Kinetic" insurgency.
Budanov & cronies will likely be given the Helm of this Rump state.
Zelensky & pals? Likely to be chucked out of power!
Europe? The various vassals there will train & house the Nazis to be used in said insurgency.
Tragedy!
(For those interested)
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Thank You Kindly to everyone!
Knowing how twisted Straussian neocon thinking can be, I imagine there is more to these Ukrainians in Europe than just insurgency.
The west lost its foreign legions, the Wahhabi militants, the IDF, and the AFU. They are likely seeking to reconstitute a new one out of refugees. Citizenship in exchange for military service. It's happening in the US with Central American migrants.
the US military was always able to enlist non-citizens. They were not numerous. Now the military cannot attract any decent recruits or American ones, so they opt for illegals. This is where the USA is today, folks, in the middle of a swamp and sinking.
Just 1 of many reasons for a wide open border. What happens when the "free help" for millions of unskilled laborers runs out and they begin to realize there are no jobs for them??? They all cannot join the military
And I have a sinking feeling those non-American troops will be used against "disobedient" Americans. Rome fell when it began using foreign troops who had no regard for Roman ways, other than a paycheck.
indeed, when the USG has nothing but failure in its efforts to dominate the world militarily, it will bring home those troops and use them to keep the border open and punish Americans. I always say, it's weird how time is accelerating. Rome lasted a millenium from start to finish. We won't last much more than 250 years.
And of course that makes them probably even more well suited to be used not only against external but also internal "enemies".
At least that is certainly a big part of the calculation.
Oh absolutely! But I think this is the part where the elites have not read any history books.
Historically when this was implemented, it always ended with their authority shrinking to tiny patches around major cities.
A sunnier thought is that after Ukrainian expatriates realize they were used as proxies and their nation destroyed by the West, they will take revenge with acts of terror in EU capitols - chickens coming home to roost.
I wonder if the only reason for Zelensky still being here is that no-one wants the odium of surrendering to the Allies. Zelensky cannot escape the Rathenau role.
We've heard this regarding the summer offensive, and Bakhmut/Artemovsk before that. I'll believe it when I see it. Right now Russia is losing fewer men per day by going "slow", but that comes at a cost: Which is that making breakthroughs is all but impossible, because in the 3-6 months it takes Russia to smash a Ukrainian defensive line, Ukraine just builds another one further back, so they need to go city by city, trench by trench, instead of the sort of progress they made during the opening months. And because the combination of large amount of ISR and widespread precision guided weapons (FPV) heavily disfavours the assaulting forces out in the open, a spearhead offensive is prohibitively costly for Russia. And they still have 7-8 oblasts East of the Dnyeper to retreat line by line. Unless something fundamental changes in the battlefield conditions, I would predict no large breakthroughs in the forseeable future. I would also predict the country itself collapsing due to internal problems before the AFU collapsing. The fact that Ukraine during the summer threw so much "meat" into the offensive proves they still had more bodies coming in than being lost being on the defensive in spring 2023 (when forces were put together, despite the "heavy attrition" of the Bakhmut battles). But they need to deal with increasing budget deficits, declining tax revenues and financial support, etc.
As usual you must be getting your facts from the Ukrop gov. These defensive fortifications were built a decade ago, when they fall, there is no building a new 1. Stay tuned and you will find out the Russian General Staff has completely figured out NATO's idiot commanders'
Okay, serious question: where do you see the Russian offensive to break into the AFU's rear happening? Wherever I see large Russian armoured column pushes, anywhere on the frontline (even in places that Ukraine just took this summer, like Andreevka), I see them taking significant casualties, if not in manpower, then at the very least in equipment due to FPVs and landmines. It looks eerily similar to the entire Ukraine summer offensive clusterfuck. And I don't think longer armoured columns will solve the problem. The only feasible way I see Russia break through is if they make massive aireal troop landings in the strategic rear. If they manage to punch through to the strategic rear, they might be able to maneuver into the AFU's undefendes rear, and collapse a larger front line. But still, in the opening, rapid advance stage of the SMO, even where there was nowhere near the current level of organised Ukrainian resistance, Russia took it's most steep losses, especially in rotary winged aircraft.
OR Russia could wait it out, maintain the current pace, until Ukraine collapses under it's own weight. Which is what I think they are going for. I think Russia right now is only pushing out into the open and out of their EW protection bubbles to put pressure on the AFU, so they can't get away with husbanding their well-trained troops in the rear and manning the frontilne with the nore replaceable freshly mobilised meat.
It seems that we indeed intend to go slowly. We are actually happy to prolong this war. There is no risk of Ukraine winning. But the people are energized by the idea that something is changing. A lot of people enlist for contracts in the army. That probably seems like a good idea to my government at the moment.
So how much western delusion and hopium did you put in your morning coffee?
lol building a defensive line is not like building a 3 bag lego set.
are you for real?
I'm taking my estimates from how much time Russia took. They've built 3-4 lines of defense in about 8 months, or thereabouts. Ukraine obviously doesn't have the resources to do that sort of speed, only a fraction of that, but by the way it's looking, they can still outpace the Russian progress even if they go at a speed which is just 25% of what Russia could do. And obviously they won't be able to create such hard nuts to crack as Avdeevka, but look across the front line: Russia is moving inch by inch not just in fortresses like Avdeevka, but basically all across the the line of contact, even in places where there are no strategic height advantages or reinforced concrete structures, even in places where Ukraine hadn't had time to dig in deep, like Robotyne. Now obvioulsy, Russia is in no hurry to push into that small village, but as we seen in many places across the frontline, pushing harder into the enemy defensive line will get you killed.
We shall see what the Russian Kharkiv offensive will bring, but for now, beating the speed of UA building defenses doesn't seem feasable to me, unless Russia is willing to take massive losses.
Let's agree to disagree.
Question for you sir and/or Simplicius: Let’s say NATO starts shelling their own citizens in Europe and naturally claims Russia is doing it.
How does Russia respond? It would no doubt be to get the W Europeans on board for war. There seems to be a high probability of this happening IMO. This could just as easily happen in the US too I would think?
Ukraine is not prime for an insurgency. The one thing that all successful insurgencies have in common is a young population. The median age in Yemen is around 19 years old. The median age in Ukraine is over 40, and that from before the war.
Doesn't mean that Ukraine's masters won't try.
Not just that: the population will be totally demoralised and sick of war, just like 1945 Nazi Germany. The allies feared the Werewolf insurgency the Nazis were trying to set up, but when it came to it, it just fizzled out. Plus we have had a fortunate culling of Ukronazis. Don't see them posting on telegram any more, showing off their tattoos.
We last saw Zelensky at Davos/ WEF meeting. He is a hero there for depopulating the Slavs of the Ukraine, and selling his country to Blackrock. He is doing a great job, according to the WEF. Makes perfect sense to them; give him more money.
But did Zelenski get to kiss the purple ring?
Thought about this “shift from war to insurgency in rump state” scenario last night after hearing it on the Duran. Gotta ask: do you really think the Russians will not finish the job and prevent this outcome? I mean, do all this but leave a trouble-making NATO funded band of insurgents in the corner of Ukraine? Has no one among the neocons been paying attention? (Rhetorical question). This will not be allowed. Dream on, neocons.
Russia is a very capable Martial society that will garner lots of success, no doubt.
The problem with 'rebel armies' is that unlike conventional armies, the way they 'win' is by surviving & attriting away soldiers.
What I think the 'plan' is at present is building a band of small, ultra-Nazi crazies to do just that. The objective is to turn Ukraine into "Russia's Iraq."
But as you said, Russia may fully annex Ukraine to deal with the matter.
To defeat an insurgency, you have to win over the people from whom they are birthed.
Only time will tell!
I have thought for some time the obvious ploy is to use the Ukranian nazis domestically in order to "jusify" a crackdown on our remaining liberties. Al-CIAduh 2.0...
Good News!!! Thanks. And Netenyahoo looks like he's gett'n his balls squeezed !
With tweezers.
And a headband magnifier
Glad to see the Stripe situation has worked out
Couple of questions:
- A50, shot down or not? The whole thing gone quiet on Ru side
- With all the failed attacks in Northern Avdiivka, how come (according to Mediazona) Ru casualties are still low? I been seeing a lot of drone footage and its pretty gruesome.
- Whats your sense of Ukr transitioning to a mass terror campaign, targeting civlians in Russia? Duran guys sense that Budanov wants to do this and Zelensky will back him
The last refuge of the defeated is terrorism. I don't doubt at all that Ze will turn to this. But it will not last long nor will it have any strategic effect whatsoever. I agree with Medvedev - Ukraine will be Russia and their people, being practical, will accept living as Russians as opposed to dying.
A50 not shot down, debunked within hours. You see drone footage because you seek it. It's the only thing killing soldiers right now as Ukraine has no other effective munitions. When you uncritically absorb the propaganda the enemy so helpfully shovels towards you, you begin to believe in it. Simple as.
Yeah, love the "head in sand" approach. Great idea!
If you think that's what I said, you're stupid. Turns out, when you put a camera on every drone you have that's all but replaced every artillery shell and rocket on the tactical level, there's more deaths on camera! Genius! Does that affect the overall numbers? No! Does it make for good propaganda to fool an idiot with? Absolutely.
Yeah, I'm stupid. Maybe pay for a sub for Simplicious's work, you broke loser. Yet another tough guy on the internet running his mouth.
Your mouth is busy writing checks your ass can't cash.
Oni is correct on the shoot down being debunked. You should make your analysis with common sense and not emotion.
Uh, I haven't seen a debunking of the A50 shootdown. I have seen of the IL-22 shootdown debunking, thats clear, because the plane landed and there's a photo of it. But even then, its clear that bird took a hit and now its reported that the commander succumbed to his wounds. But the A50 nothing. Some are saying that the plane is the same plane, some are saying its a replacement. In fact I've even read Ru channels posting rumors of obituaries. There hasn't been a lot of clarity on it. The Ukr side has posted a radar trace. Is it convincing? Maybe, maybe not. Why does it matter? The A50 is a force multiplier, a single one of those in the air makes the entirety of Ru AD and anti-air far more effective. So asking Simplicious to comment on it is not such a big deal because I respect his analysis. If simply asking that question offends you so much, then you have a problem, not me.
- A50. no. no confirmation from UA, no acknowledgement from RU yet. RU does not hide such facts at all as they are impossible to hide anyway.
- what failed attacks? also careful with drone footage as time after time after time it was shown UA recycles trash (video game footage, old footage , badly edited videos) to show 'progress'. I would not touch anything coming from UA side with 100 ft pole unless it is fully confirmed. All of their information (from Ghost of Kiev to Siege of Kiev to Bucha to Krematorsk strike to really everything) shown to be fairly badly made propaganda. the key here is 'bad' (all sides push their message)
- they can try. wouldn't do shit to change situation on the ground, only harden RU resolve and further split former UA society. I was in RU back when Chechen wars happened and remember girl suicide bombers, airport/train stations attack, civ target attacks (schools, theaters). How did that work out for US supported rebels? How did that impacted RU public opinion? Мочить даже в сортире - kill (them) everywhere, is from that period.
Ya Ru side is pretty straightforward. But my curiosity about the A50 remains. Remember that it was when it was sent up that the AFU lost 20+ aircraft inside of a week, with Ru demonstrating that they can guide AD missiles from awacs aircraft.
There hasn't been a "debunking", there just hasn't been anything. Unless I missed it.
what is there to debunk beyond 'we cannot confirm' or 'we have no such information' :) that is as official as debunking as it gets. UA psyops routinely come out with crazy messages (Crimea is 100% pro nazi and ready to 'rise', Russia run out of food and eats crows, you already heard about washing machine chips, etc). Waste time to respond to any of that? Poor, illiterate 'orc hordes', starving and never saw indoor plumbing (or toasters, or fridges, or paved roads) all coming over to this prosperous 'free' , 'democratic' nation to steal washing machines. UA psyops is trash..
They went to the trouble to show the IL-22, took a photo of it. They didn't do anything for the A50. Not saying that means anything - maybe Ukr thought they were shooting at the A50 and actually were shooting at the IL-22, and there is no A50 to show. Anyway thanks for your responses.
What, no Tesla Tanks and Kirov Airships to support the AI-controlled tanks?
There should be, the Apocalypse tank can only do so much...
we are working on that.
The "West" has that Apparatchik Schmitt as an Advisor.
PeeWee Herman wasn't available.
One thing about US & NATO weapons: to my understanding, mostly older and obsolete weapon platforms have been sent. It seems to me the top shelf weapon systems, operated by fully trained personnel would fare better in combat, no? It goes without saying that NATO tactics are inferior to Russian ones, and Russia has weapons in stock they've not used (Felon, Checkmate). Overall, NATO wouldn't stand a chance as currently constructed.
I suspect the few top-shelf NATO weapons sent to Ukraine were operated by NATO soldiers ("mercenaries").. Even if NATO is holding back some of its best weapons (which I doubt), they simply do not have the industrial base to last very long and their supply chain is far too long and complex to be of much lasting value.
i think that's very likely. training Ukrainians to use some of that top end tech like the Patriot missiles and radars or the Storm-Shadows in a few moths simply isn't possible. And this tech has to be carefully guarded. Those Ukrainian units sent for NATO training would be infiltrated with Moscow agents and sympathizers.
It takes energy for an Industrial Base. It takes knowhow. It takes allegiance and loyalty. Everything Europe and the U.S. lack.
Who wants to help the WEF annual smugfest?
"mostly older and obsolete weapon platforms have been sent."
Because that is what the US and NATO mostly has. It is a myth that NATO's forces are more modern than Russia's. The vast majority of primary weapons systems in the west are decades old types. For example:
US air force:
- F16's? From the 70's
- F15's? From the 70's
- F18's? From the 80's
- B1's? From the 70's
- B52's? From the 50's
Those account for the vast majority of US combat aircraft. It's the same for the Navy and Army, most of their available platforms are from the 70's and 80's. Most of the rest of NATO is as bad or worse.
True dat. US submarines are the only weapon platform worth a shit. Even then, Columbia and SSNx class are in their infancy. Meanwhile the Russians have their next generation subs underway, and with natural circulation as the primary means for reactor cooling .
Run silent. Run deep.
The operational airframes the US Air Force relies on are on average 28 years old, and pilots, on average, fly only 6-8 hours per month. That's not going to win a major war.
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1750524945669455905
But, but, the US has the #1 military in the world! We spend more than the next 9 cuntries combined! /s
Worse
NATO mechanized equipment is old.
US tried a new generation of mechanized vehicles in 2000. The system failed and nothing in development to replace Abram’s, Bradley and Apache.
EU not even dreaming….
Well, you've got to admit Jet engines in a tank, beats the original idea of V12 Diesels in Fighter Jets.
pumping jet fuel into tanks is bees' knees cool!
How do they say in Russian I got my pants full of shit comrade?
"Товарищ, я навалил в штаны!" (Tovarisch, ya navalil v shtany). And if you mean "got pants full of shit drunk" then it would be something like "Товарищ, я нажрался в говно" (Tovarisch, ya nazhralsya v govno).
I would say prosit in Russian
Tell your Russian friends and neighbors that a lot, perhaps most people in the West have no problem backing a fight.
But they can see right through the Dirty Bastards and Bitches in the U.S. and Europe who want to see our children dead from stupid, completely unnecessary wars.
Finding a way to work together with Russia still requires kicking a lot of dirty asses out here in the West.
Mills of God grind slowly, yet the grind small. Russia and America are natural allies and someday we or our descendants will work together.
Mills of God grind slowly, yet the grind small. Russia and America are natural allies and someday we or our descendants will work together.
Thanks for the analysis Simplicius.
It's sad that so many will die for what was always going to be a Russian victory. The west has never shown any sort of strategy, other than pumping US Defense spending.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-01-22
Nor have they ever shown any sympathy for the many killed.
War is a racket.-- ie grift
Pyschopaths have one strategy--get the money and power and who cares about the rest. Ukraine is the biggest washing machine that ever existed. And no Russia does not need its "chips" to run its military Ursula.🙄
77 million for 54 missiles. At that rate usa enemies are its weapons suppliers
Another awesome situation report from Simplicius the Great. Thank you, I look forward to reading your newsletter !
So Christian of you 😎 “chance to make the right choice, atone for their past errors of judgment, and realign to the accepted path...” 😇
Interesting that the Ukrainian radio intercept has the Ukrainian soldiers speaking Russian.
A lot of Ukrainian soldiers speak Russian.
Of course they do which is why is it so absurd that the Ukrainian government has outlawed speaking Russian.
Outlawing speaking in Russian would be the same as outlawing English for the U.S. since they speak 'merican.
And now Zelensky is looking for the fresh cannon meat. He offers Ukrainian citizenship to anybody who was born in Ukraine, or Ukrainian descent.
Wow, what an honor to become the second sort disposables in what is rapidly turning into the West's third-world colony.
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/privitannya-prezidenta-ukrayini-z-dnem-sobornosti-88461
This war is a war of between two former Soviet republics and this is basically Soviet army fighting with itself.
I think you put that rather well.
I disagree because Ukraine as proxy for the USA and UK takes precedence.
Zelensky's first language is Russian!
and it is really funny to see how that puppet
a) struggles to understand derjavna mova (state language, aka new ukranian they are making up on the fly)
b) pretends to not understand Russian, spoken by 85% of population and asks for translators from his native language to a foreign language of tiny minority
it would be like our Joe claiming to never spoken English , asked for all questions to be in Spanish and a translator from English to Spanish for himself.
there was a recent research , done in Kiev of all places. for native language of preschoolers (called kindergarten in RU/UA). Results
- 15% are speaking native ukranian
- 20% are speaking pure, native russian
- 65% are speaking russian with UA words called суржик which are a bunch of dialects , usually rurals.
So there is no unified nation of 'ukrainians'. it is at best a bi-lingual country that totally outlawed one of the languages (which started a civil war).
Imagine Canada in which French minority staged a armed coup with China support and then declared
- English is a language of occupiers
- English is outlawed
- all schools in English are closed
- all people who are still speaking in English should be publicly shamed, beaten, arrested, fined.
while English is 80% of the population of Canada! How would that go? And that is why Ukraine is dying, population does not support crazy minority and as much as they try to drum up 'defense of motherland from aggression', it does not work
At least when I lived there, most people outside of Galicia could not or would not speak Ukrainian.
"Allegedly the son of a brigadier general of the French army was killed by a strike ........His partner (also killed) ......"
Partner? Le pouffe?
Brilliant sir. I will be supporting you again in my own small way in the near future. This does not adequately reflect my admiration for your extraordinary work. Thanks again.
i hope you are right that the tide is turning against mean spirited discrimination by fascists
Simplicius two days ago:
"Avdeevka is taking far longer than many imagined, as some believed it would fall by the end of last year. At this pace it could likely hold another three months if not even longer. It may very well hold for six months, however in the end it will certainly fall."
Simplicius headline today: "AFU Defense Collapses in Avdeevka."
LOL I'm mostly uninterested in Ukraine at this point. From here on out, it's anti-climatic. The new focus is Palestine and I'll be spending some time trying to put together a decent recap of that history and the correct solution - and the solution that will likely actually occur.
Since you've outed yourself as a clot shot taking, WEF/WHO narrative absorbing compliant sheep, I'm sure no one gives a fuck about your opinions on any subject, excepting maybe how to be a cowardly vaxtard.
You're fairly anti-climatic as well - and unfortunately, rather uninteresting.
Thanks for knowing the difference between un- and dis- interesting.
That's the absolute beauty of following facts on the ground, rather than the narrative. Situations change quickly, and the writer is allowed to change his mind. It's up to you whether you believe it or not, or find it anticlimatic. No one is forcing you to read this Substack or insult its author. Good luck on figuring out the 'correct solution' for Palestine...rather funny you are. Bye now
why stop there? plenty of conflict (including war) around the world. Libia never settled down, Syria is a mess, Iraq is a hot mess, Yemen, the 3 way Saudi/UAE/Iran shitshow.
and 'Palestine' is going on much longer than any one of those - Islamic terrorists (Hamas) did a major terrorist act (mass murder of civilians on a huge scale), israelis (who are not all jews) dared to fight back and instantly became cries of 'genocide' and all of those BS claims we see all of the time (including that parking lot in the hospital attack which was Hamas doing). Plenty of parallels with Ukraine - externally installed tools (Hamas and Kiev regime) who illegally overthrew local governments (maidan putch and Hamas fight with PLA/Fatah), funded by extermists from abroad (US neocons/NATO and Qatar and its wahhabi networks). Local population are hostages that can not leave (Hamas will shoot you on site if you try to escape Gaza concentration camp of 'free Palestine'). and same BS 'occupation narratives' - Russians are 'occupiers' for the very city they founded (each and every major city in 'Ukraine'). Israelies who fucking lived on this land continuously for FOUR THOUSAND YEARS, many many centuries before first Arab (or Muslim) ever appeared, are 'occupiers'. depressing piles of lies in both cases, same BS propaganda.
Would to God that you prove correct, but we've seen predictions of imminent victory before, all around.
My advice is to fight as if your future depended on it, and keep doing so until it's actually and finally over.
Just a layman's question here. Is the Russian language itself, at all levels including weapons software, proving a major obstacle to western efficacy in Ukraine? It was a major issue in Iraq. For all the billions spent and thousands of personnel, no-one was interested in learning the language. Total reliance on interpreters. Caused huge problems.
Nope. Literally everyone in Ukraine can speak, read and write on Russian. Same for the Baltic States. A lot of people from the former Warsaw Treaty who are now in NATO also have no problems with the Russian language. When you consider Russia and Ukraine, it is in many ways also that the US and Canada, France and Belgium, Germany and Austria, and so on.
Yes, thanks, that part is understood. Was just wondering tho if the Brits and Americans over there are totally dependent. And coming back to the evolution of weapons systems, does Russia have an advantage because the 'code' is not in English?
English is the language of global communication. Thanks to Pax Americana. A significant part of the post-Soviet generations understands English and speaks English with varying degrees of success.
I think it's more India than Iraq if we keep using comparisons. Or, say, Algeria for the French.
As for the "code", then a specialist is needed, but as far as I know, the Russian military uses ordinary variations of Linux and Android. The only country I know of that makes completely original software is China. And they are still in the process.
I think you could put North Korea in that indigenous code group too, although how much help they get from China is hard to say.
That's a good point.
Copy. Thanks.
At least when I lived in Ukraine, it was remarkable how few people could or wanted to speak English.
The Russian "code" advantage is that the Russian language itself has a grammar and syntax construction that is very similar to computer languages. This is why Russia has a very robust software industry, Russian programmers "think" like a computer...
Sounds like French. Much more structured to begin with and therefore more 'akin', or easier to apply to code.
Language is either a bridge or a wall in conflict zones.
Cheers.
Most schools in former Soviet republics teach some English so one can expect some (very) basic level of communication.
Thanks mate.