SITREP 12/20/23: Putin and Zelensky Crossfire, MidEast Heats Up

This will be more scattershot than usual as I wanted to cover a variety of developments in quick succession.

Putin and Zelensky both made a series of interesting, contrasting statements. Zelensky’s PR team forced him to hold a town hall type presentation to buoy his sagging image, particularly in light of Putin’s recent high-visibility events of this sort.

The general direction is that Putin has been signaling more and more ‘realpolitik’ admissions of late. What with yesterday’s confession that he was ‘naive’ in the opening portion of his presidential career. This time he delivered some unfiltered and quite candid explanations for Russia’s involvement in Ukraine:

This likewise extended to what appeared as a frank admission that Russia will take what’s rightfully hers in Ukraine, and will no longer seek to appease the West. Any future negotiations will be done purely on the behalf of Russia’s interests:

Zelensky for his part finally officially announced that ~500k new men will be drafted:

But the news that shocked the world most was a figure floating around which stated Ukraine requires 20k men per month just for upkeep of losses, which would obviously serve to give us an indirect insight into their true casualties:

At first the 20k/month seemed unsourced as it wasn’t part of the official announcement for the new 500k mobilization.

However I dug around and found the source, which was Rada Deputy Maryana Bezuhla who, perhaps unwittingly, gave up a state secret in a post that was meant as a condemnation of Zaluzhny (he’s the one linked in blue at top):

Keep in mind a similar figure was reported many months ago, but this appears to be the first ever high level official confirmation from Ukrainian authorities. That means Ukraine is losing minimum 20k per month and needs this amount of mobilized just to keep at parity. This amounts to a precise 666 casualties per day, though she did mention the problem ‘growing in the summer’ so perhaps it’s meant to represent post-counteroffensive loss trends.

Then again, I’ve been posting the official numbers from Russian MOD on AFU’s manpower losses whenever I happen to see them, and they’re always roughly in that range.

Example of past month:

825, 605, 635, 695 men lost per day. It matches up with the 20k per month figure remarkably well.

Recall that at 20k a month, after about 22 months of war, they would be at around 22 x 20k = 440,000 losses, which is roughly where a lot of tallies peg them now. After all, Zelensky’s own announcement is for exactly 450-500k new men, as per the video I posted—so this would line up perfectly with how much they need to replenish.

Another corroboration is Budanov’s new video, which I posted last time, where he states that a steady 1.1M armed forces figure has to be maintained “at all times”—which tells us that Ukraine’s doctrinal principle is to always maintain the same equilibrium of men, which logically explains why 450-500k total losses would require 450-500k new men, as opposed to 500k new men for an ‘expansion’ of some sort.

I make this distinction specifically because Russia itself famously announced its own ~500k new enlistments for 2023, but these are precisely for an expansion of several new military districts, rather than to make up for losses like in Ukraine’s case. In fact, below you’ll see that Shoigu announced exactly this:

➡️Due to Finland's NATO membership and Sweden's imminent accession, the formation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts continues.

In light of that, we have a slew of new videos pretty much confirming the insanely high losses. For instance, this AFU officer recounts how his battalion commander drove 350 Ukrainian soldiers to death in only 8 hours of time during a particularly hot fight:

350 dead in just a single battalion, in a single day, in a single tiny sector of the theater. It becomes very easy to imagine 600+ total daily casualties over the entire front.

Another Ukrainian soldier outright says they’re losing in every conceivable way:

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Meanwhile, during the announcements both Putin and Shoigu made other interesting statements and revelations. For instance, Putin praised many sectors of the industry in scrambling together various ad hoc advancements during the midst of the war.

However, he also noted that there are still key deficiencies in the armed forces, like communications, some ISR/counterbattery issues that could be better, high precision weapons, as well as more satellites. Basically, anything that requires technological advancement. Below you’ll see Shoigu noted that Ukraine has over 400+ NATO satellites at its disposal—it’s simply impossible to compete with such a number, though Russia continues to send new ones up, including one just days ago.

In fact it was a breath of fresh air for a leader to openly discuss things in such a forthright manner, along with the earlier political topics. You get a sense that Putin does not actually hide very many things, despite his KGB background. He openly critiques the areas where Russia is lagging or could do better, while the West and Ukrainian side on the other hand do everything possible to conceal their shortcomings while inflating false virtues.

Shoigu revealed some important numbers, compiled by DDGeopolitics—I highlighted the most interesting:

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦🏁 Key points from Sergei Shoigu's speech at the extended meeting of the Ministry of Defense:

➡️Ukraine received 5,220 tanks, IFVs, APCs, 28 aircraft, and nearly 90 helicopters.

➡️Ukrainian losses in the counteroffensive exceeded 159,000 military personnel, 121 aircraft, 766 tanks, including 36 Leopards, and 2348 other armored vehicles, 50 of them Bradley's

➡️NATO soldiers directly operate air defense systems, tactical missiles, and rocket systems in Ukraine.

➡️Ukrainian losses since the start of the operation surpassed 383,000 killed and wounded.

➡️NATO officers train and guide Ukrainian military operations.

➡️Ukraine underwent nine waves of mobilization, with the tenth ongoing.

➡️410 military and dual-purpose satellites from NATO countries support Ukrainian interests.

▪️ Foreign mercenaries heavily engaged in Ukrainian forces have been largely eliminated.

➡️Over 5,800 foreign mercenaries were neutralized, including 1,427 from Poland, 466 from the U.S., and 344 from the UK.

➡️The production of tanks (Russia) has been increased by 5.6 times, IFVs by 3.6 times, armored personnel carriers by 3.5 times, UAVs by 16.8 times, artillery ammunition by 17.5 times since February 2022

➡️According to Putin's decision, large-scale tasks on fortification equipment of the defense lines have been solved

➡️7,000 km of minefields, 1.5 million anti-tank obstacles, 2,000 km of trenches, and 12,000 concrete structures were created on the front line.

➡️3,000 strongholds, 45,000 dugouts, and over 150,000 shelters for vehicles were established.

➡️Current minefield depth reaches 600 meters.

➡️Military builders and engineering forces completed 82% of fortification works on the contact line.

➡️Combined arms tactics underwent significant changes, with assault units and UAV units deployed.

➡️Reserve formation approaches were revised, with each army forming a reserve regiment.

➡️Russian forces applied air defense comprehensively, enhancing operational responsiveness and range.

➡️Russian air defense shot down 1,062 projectiles from NATO MLRS, tactical and cruise missiles, and guided bombs in six months.

➡️Russian forces improved the quality and reliability of weaponry and equipment used in the special operation.

➡️Industry representatives within Russian forces swiftly modernized 107 models of weaponry and equipment.

➡️Over 1,700 UAV operator teams and more than 1,500 FPV drone operators were trained in troop formations.

➡️Modern Russian equipment has passed a rigorous test in the conditions of a special operation and has shown its superiority over similar models of NATO countries.

➡️New and unconventional tactical maneuvers were integrated into the military training of Russian personnel, proving effective in the operation.

➡️Over 98% of the wounded during the special operation recovered due to timely evacuation and competent medical care.

➡️The number of foreign volunteers willing to participate on the Russian army's side increased sevenfold.

➡️The lethality among the wounded in the special operation is less than 0.5%, the lowest in the history of military medicine.

➡️500,000 reserve sets of protective gear and armor, 300,000 medical kits, and 160 evacuation vehicles were created for Russian troop formations.

➡️Up to 15,000 tons of ammunition and fuel, 2,000 tons of food, and 1,500 tons of drinking water are delivered daily to Russian troop formations.

➡️Compensation for contract soldiers, volunteers, and mobilized personnel is at least 210,000 rubles, closely monitored.

➡️40 billion rubles have been allocated for providing housing to special operation participants.

➡️A military-social center of the Russian Ministry of Defense is being established for streamlined social guarantees, operating as a one-stop-shop.

➡️458,000 certificates of combat veterans issued, soon to be given to all special operation participants.

➡️Transition to electronic veteran certificates planned from next year.

➡️The experience of the special operation demonstrates that the Russian Armed Forces can adequately respond to actions of any modern adversary.

➡️Over 650,000 military personnel gained combat experience during the special operation.

➡️Currently, the Russian army is the most prepared and combat-ready globally, with its weapons tested in real combat.

➡️Russia's nuclear triad ensures guaranteed strategic deterrence, with weapon modernization reaching 95%.

➡️Strategic Missile Forces completed rearmament with the "Avangard" missile system, while continuing to be equipped with the "Yars" system.

➡️Aviation strategic nuclear forces will soon receive four Tu-160M strategic missile carriers.

➡️Ground forces received 1,500 new and upgraded tanks, 2,500 IFVs and APCs in 2023.

➡️Russia's missile attack warning system detected 78 ballistic missile launches and 168 space rocket launches in a year.

➡️Construction of the unified technical system for "Angara" launch vehicles at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome has been completed.

➡️The Russian Navy received four modern multipurpose submarines and eight surface ships in the past year.

➡️Plans for army and navy staffing in the current year fulfilled, reaching 1,150,000 military personnel.

➡️Construction of nine new modern military hospitals across Russia to be completed in the next three months.

➡️Plans for constructing facilities for the Russian Armed Forces in 2023 fulfilled.

➡️592 high-tech facilities have been built for the placement of strategic missile complexes "Sarmat," "Avangard," and "Yars."

➡️Construction of three water pipelines, totaling over 250 km, was completed in Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic, providing water to over 1.5 million people.

➡️The "Emperor Alexander III" nuclear-powered submarine of the "Borei-A" project, armed with "Bulava" missiles, joined the Russian Navy.

➡️Shoigu set the task to accept into the Russian Armed Forces in 2024: 2 Tu-160M missile carriers, the cruiser "Knyaz Pozharsky," 3 submarines, and 11 ships.

➡️Shoigu tasked to increase the production of missile systems "Kinzhal" and "Zircon," with a 1.8-fold increase in missile and ammunition deliveries in 2024.

➡️One of Shoigu's priorities is to increase the number of contract soldiers to 745,000 by the end of 2024, considering the formation of new units.

➡️Due to Finland's NATO membership and Sweden's imminent accession, the formation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts continues.

Allow me to emphasize some of the most interesting ones.

He notes that artillery ammunition production has increased by 17.5x since the start of the conflict. Let’s just assume for argument’s sake the US and Russia could produce similar outputs prior to 2022, using US production as baseline since we actually know official figures from them, and since it’s plausible that US/Russia could have had similar outputs. We know US did 14k per month, so let’s say Russia did somewhere in that region of 14-20k. A 17x increase x 14-20k would give about 250-350k monthly, which is precisely the 3.5 - 4.2M per year that I’ve contended for a while now is likely Russia’s current output.

Next, Shoigu mentioned: ➡️NATO soldiers directly operate air defense systems, tactical missiles, and rocket systems in Ukraine.

https://www.rt.com/russia/589340-russia-defense-shoigu-nato-troops-ukraine/

What’s interesting on this account is that a new article has highlighted the book from Polish journalist Zbigniew Parafianowicz, called Poland at War, which I covered before, wherein the author states that an unnamed Polish minister saw active duty British commandos operating in Ukraine in the early part of 2022:

https://www.declassifieduk.org/polish-minister-saw-uk-special-forces-operating-in-ukraine

The minister said: “It was a time when the Russians were still standing in Bucha, and the route was a grey zone. It was possible to run into Russians. We passed the last checkpoint. The Ukrainians told us that we continue at our own risk. 

“Well, and who did we meet next? Ukrainian soldiers and… British special forces. Uniformed. With weapons. They moved with the Ukrainians in trucks and off-road vehicles with artillery radars. They were tracking targets. They were learning about this war. Such radar tracks where mortar or rocket shells fall and are fired.”

But this is just scratching the surface, people would be amazed to learn what kind of active duty NATO forces are actually operating on the ground in Ukraine. Everything Shoigu said is not only true, it’s an understatement.

He also quotes the unnamed Polish minister as saying: “On the first day of the war, we realised that there were [Polish] commandos – from the Lubliniec Military Commando Unit – in Brovary near Kyiv. 

Also:

Another Polish minister is quoted in the book as saying that on one diplomatic trip to Ukraine, “the Americans asked us to bring their two wounded soldiers from Kyiv. They were there as civilians. But it is known what kind of civilians. 

“These two wounded Americans were coming back on the same train that [deputy PM Jarosław] Kaczynski took with [PM Mateusz] Morawiecki. One was missing a leg. Doctors had to amputate it.”

This is why it’s no real misnomer to say that it’s a NATO-Russia war, and NATO is not faring well.

Of course it’s only natural then that a Polish ‘mercenary’ was just captured yesterday amongst the AFU marines fighting in the Khrynki slaughter-pit:

Shoigu mentioned how Russian equipment has proven itself on the battlefield, and that the Russian army is now the most trained and battle-experienced in the world. One interesting note on this is that senior editor at BILD, Julian Roepcke, has made what is one of the most profound admissions of the entire war.

An AFU source told him that not only are they low on ammo, but that NATO equipment simply doesn’t hold up—it wasn’t made for real war, but small engagements:

Once again I invite people to revisit my article which delves into precisely this topic:

The fact is, the Soviet ancestors have proven themselves most worthy, as their legacy systems continue to outperform everything on the battlefield today. This perhaps even extends to current Russian designs, as many things in modern day Russia are still inferior to their Soviet counterpart, not least of which being military command and leadership; but it’s all slowly getting there.

And speaking of NATO, German Bundestag member Roderich Kiesewetter announced that Europe desperately needs the lithium fields in Donetsk and Lugansk, which are the richest in all of Europe, proving once more this conflict is not about the fanciful “freedum” they virtue-signaled for:

Apart from that, Shoigu listed 1,500 tanks as having been delivered to the armed forces this year. Many find this hard to believe, but if it’s true it means Russia is easily keeping up with losses, which are on track for an average of maybe 500-800 tanks per year at most.

However, the slight wrinkle in that is the question of distribution of these tanks. T-72 is the only tank Russia currently produces brand new. The rest are all refurbs, with the T-80 slated to be restarting full production at a future term. So if out of the 1500 tanks only a few hundred are new while half or more at T-62s and T-55s, then that’s not that great.

The reason is, most frontline losses are spearhead tanks like T-72/80/90, i.e. ones that push advances. T-62s and 55s are used mostly from the rear, shooting in closed positions, indirect fire mode, which means they’re seldom lost. That means more of the “good tanks” are being lost, which would mean that overtime, the older crappy tanks would theoretically become a larger and larger proportion of the total tank force.

These are hypotheticals though. If Russia is producing a good amount of new T-72s then it would obviate the issue, especially if they’ve managed to restart full T-80 production. But no one knows exactly what the proportions are, partly because they’re obscured by various nomenclatures. For instance, if 400 T-72s are announced as delivered, this could be 200 brand new ones plus 200 old T-72s refurbished and upgraded to T-72B3s or some other variant.

One pro-UA analysis of current visually Russian tank losses by percentage. Likely skewed but still interesting to consider the trends:

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Next, a hacker group reported received a recorded conversation between Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Rodion Timoshenko, who appears to tacitly call for a coup against Zelensky:

Some claim this is part of the recent announcements of SBU wiretapping of Zaluzhny’s office. Lesser seen was that his associates’ offices were also tapped.

He’s saying that Zelensky is setting them up for a fall and that the only way is for the generals to lead the country, or at least that’s the inference. But you’ll note—if this recording is even real—that no one’s talking about capitulation. As I warned in a recent report, a change in power in Ukraine may lead merely to Zaluzhny and co. continuing to prosecute the war but in a much more defensive fashion, aimed not at reclaiming territory to please Western sponsors, but rather transitioning the war to a battle of survival.

At the same time comes final confirmation that the Ukrainian deal is definitely out for this year:

One of the new timelines is that it will be discussed from mid to late January 2024. That means even if they can come to an agreement, which is a big if, there won’t be anything sent to Ukraine until months later.

Matthew Miller reports “there’s no magic pot of funding” for Ukraine if the aid isn’t agreed upon:

And there’s rumor that Europe is in fact holding on to their planned $50B aid to Ukraine in secret demand that US approve their own first. Recall how Europe played the same tricks with tanks and other equipment—they didn’t want to be left stuck holding the bill alone, and waited for the US to send a token amount of Abrams before committing their own tanks. Now it seems the same game is at hand. The reason is simple: Europe takes the lead from the US on policy direction. In Europe’s mind, why should they shell out tens of billions if US’s plan is to throw Ukraine under the bus and end the whole project entirely? They’ll only continue on if there’s resolve in the US to do so.

But as always, at the moment, there’s no danger of total Ukrainian collapse as there will still be a few months before the lack of funding is truly felt on the frontline. As for governmental funding, Ukraine reportedly has a Plan B which includes selling government bonds and accruing various other types of debt to fund civil services and things of that nature, so that likely won’t be too big of an immediate issue, though of course it portends horrendous societal and economic conditions down the line.

The main issue they’ll face is simply critical ammunition supplies as well as manpower, given that we just learned they need 20k a month meat replenishment just to sustain. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to successfully pull that many each month given how dire the draft dodging has gotten amongst the population. It is possible though: there are continued reports of massive new upticks in mobilization. You can see dozens of new videos of commissars very aggressively trawling bars, clubs, shopping malls, ski resorts, and many other places. A few ‘on the ground’ contacts have stated that the intensity is very palpable and in many cities, men simply don’t even go out at all anymore, for fear of being dragged off the street.

Ben Hodges and many Western pundits are now pushing Ukraine to “maximize” their recruitment by taking in everyone who’s eligible:

There’s only one near-certainty. The question is no longer of increasing Ukrainian aid in any substantial way, but rather of simple base level continuity. That means the best they can hope for is just to maintain a minimum. Russia, on the other hand, is absolutely certain to continue increasing productivity beyond even the current already elevated level.

One recent humorous example of the pro-UA punditry’s disconnect with this fact is the following. On the left you can see all the reports from late 2022 revolving around how low Russia’s missile stocks had supposedly gotten—in this case, only “a few dozen Kalibr missiles” and “120 Iskanders” left.

Now, a new report more than a year later from the same sources claims Russia has ~500 Kalibr/Kh-101s and nearly 300 total Iskanders (M+K).

Despite firing hundreds of missiles over the past year, even according to these sources, Russian stocks only continue to grow higher. And Shoigu said for 2024, the production of key systems like Kinzhals will grow even higher than current rate.

By the way, there’s no inherent credibility to their exact numbers listed above, but I do reckon they’re likely in the right ballpark simply because that’s about how many precision missiles can be expected to be had, considering most 1st world military powers can really only produce 100-200 of each type of precision missile per year, usually. Recall that Zelensky himself once said Russia has already fired somewhere around 5000 total precision missiles during the entire SMO, so one can imagine the initial stock.

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-russia-has-fired-over-5-000-missiles-at-ukraine-since-feb-24-2022/

And that was in March of this year, imagine the numbers by now.

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Ultimately though, the West appears to be winding down all things Ukraine. Washington Post deleted their ‘Ukrainian coverage’ special bulletin link at the top of their site in anticipation, as they likely know there’s not going to be any further ‘good news’ any time soon.

Wall Street Journal echoes the sentiment, outright declaring Putin as the ‘winner’ of the year:

“Vladimir Putin is declared the geopolitical winner of the year. His position looks immeasurably stronger than a year ago. Kiev's vaunted counteroffensive has stalled, Putin's economy has weathered Western sanctions, European resolve is fading and American support is waning.

“Putin demonstrates the cruel advantage of strategic patience.”

Zelensky has few options, here are some latest polls:

The level of trust in Ukraine has fallen in almost all government institutions, KIIS survey.

President Zelensky enjoyed the trust of 84% of the population, now 62%;

Confidence in the Verkhovna Rada fell by more than half, from 35% to 15%;

52% of those interviewed had confidence in the government last year, now it is 26%;

Distrust in judges has almost doubled to 61% and in prosecutors to 64;

There is also a sharp decline in trust in Ukrainian media - from 57% to 29%;

Only towards the army did the level of trust remain unchanged.

And:

Meanwhile Rada Deputy Bezluha found that nearly 75% of men would ditch Ukrainian citizenship and flee the country rather than be mobilized:

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Lastly, a quick update on the Mideast situation.

Houthis have reportedly done grave damage to Israel’s economy:

While allowing Russian oil ships to transit, though I haven’t corroborated this fact just yet:

Biden is now drawing up plans of potential attack, though it could be a bluff to get Iran/Yemen to de-escalate:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/19/britain-joins-international-red-sea-naval-effort-houthis/

However, the newly announced 10-nation “Operation Prosperity Guardian” is not starting with great prospects. Firstly, amongst the “coalition of the willing” is missing most of the key Arab partners, particularly newly BRICS-aligned UAE and KSA.

…the new coalition comprises Bahrain, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, Spain, and the US.

A paltry group.

On top of that, there are far too many technological limitations precluding them from establishing any sort of meaningful dominion over the Houthis:

There are endless problems plaguing the equipment of the ‘alliance’. Britain announced their flagship HMS Diamond—called ‘the jewel in the naval crown’—which is joining the special group, is plagued with mechanical issues; they fear it won’t even make it through the operation without breaking down:

https://news.yahoo.com/fighting-red-sea-intensifying-us-153259294.html

The US is getting dragged deeper and deeper into conflicts that are overstretching its capabilities. As someone said, “He who defends everything, defends nothing.”

The fact is this:

Colorado just took Trump off the ballot, which almost guarantees the 2024 election to be explosive in ways never before seen. Either mass civil unrest or outright civil war. Tucker Carlson and others have predicted that 2024’s big pre-election ‘October Surprise’ will in fact be a full-scale war, meant to lock down the elections and effect a totalitarian dictatorship by the establishment Democrats.

From X:

“Just like I said, CO opened the Pandora's box. Do you know what may come next? If Trump gets elected, blue states may not to recognize his presidency; vice versa if a Dem gets elected, red states may choose not to recognize him/her as POTUS either; I.e. road to union split.”

There’s some possibility in this. There are myriad immensely destabilizing flashpoints all converging on the end of 2024 like we’ve never seen before. We already know the year is said to be the most politically charged globally, in history, as it has the most global elections total.

With US veering into war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and potentially China, with the US elections certain to be highly contested and rife with civil unrest, and with the global economy going inverted, with US hyperinflation already shredding the now nonexistent “middle class”, there’s an extremely high probability that the end of 2024 will see some historic black swan level event(s).

The war in Israel does not appear even close to ending—in fact there’s every chance it will only escalate given that Israeli officials are now very strongly signaling they intend to take southern Lebanon next. That means both the Ukrainian and Israeli conflicts will be peaking later next year, as the election itself sees its zenith, giving some blockbuster “October Surprise” possibilities.

We wait and watch.

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