SITREP 11/8/24: Trump's Arrival Throws Things Askew
In the wake of Trump’s whirlwind election victory a mad scramble has ensued to both fill positions in his administration as well as from world leaders ingratiating themselves before the grand deal-maker’s return.
Europe in particular is in utter shambles as their sunk-cost failure in Ukraine has exposed feeble European leaders as true naked emperors before their seething populaces. Germany continues to completely unspool before our eyes as France’s Macron issued a temp-gauging panic statement about the need for Europe to become ‘omnivores’ in a world full of ‘carnivores’, lest the decaying continent get left behind for good.
In short, Europe is flailing as it sinks below the tides of history—Macron here belatedly essays to deploy the life raft to no avail. Europe has subordinated itself to the US in such a way as to become mere abject pawns, with no sovereignty of their own, their leaders disposable factotums to be rearranged at whim on the board by the real power players. Macron scrabbles desperately to cling to the status quo, but the train has gone.
Of course there are a multitude of takes: the Ukrainian side read strength and optimism in Macron’s polemic, which they see as signaling a renewed call for European solidarity on Ukraine. But it’s clear Macron’s gasbag locutions are just hollow vapors, the mirage of ‘solidarity’ is as see-through as a cheap plastic baguette bag.
Now Trump’s erratic actions stand to play spoiler, adding even more uncertainty into the mix, with today’s alleged call between the President-Elect and Zelensky, which was said to, eye-openingly, include Elon Musk on the line.
AXIOS reports: Trump Reassures Zelensky in Call Joined by Elon Musk
Donald Trump’s 25-minute call with Zelensky on Wednesday included Elon Musk, two sources told Axios.
Zelensky congratulated Trump, who assured support for Ukraine without specifics.
Three sources said Zelensky felt reassured by the call, which did not heighten his concerns.
Musk also confirmed he would continue supporting Ukraine through Starlink, though he declined to comment.
Many are trying to make premature sense of things, but it’s far too early to tell. Trump is likely just sending out feelers and does not even actually have his real plan or policy cemented. The most realistic take being:
However, the legitimate concern echoed by many is that Trump will make some inane offer which will be rebuffed by Putin, that will not only hurt Trump’s ego but embarrass him on the world stage, causing him to seek retaliation by threatening to go “all in” on Ukraine. After all, this was Mike Pompeo’s previously outlined vision of a Trump peace plan from earlier this year. Pompeo, who some claim is now under consideration for the Trump administration given his surprise speech at a late Trump rally a week ago, outlined his vision as being that Trump would threaten total escalation with a massive “$500 billion” dollar lend-lease program to give Ukraine everything it wants:
Trump, too, was previously quoted as threatening something similar in a 2023 Fox interview with Maria Bartiromo, so there appears at least some seed of truth to this chestnut:
The problem is, US does not have anything left to give without totally stripping down its own already depleted armed forces—as such the threat seems to strike a hollow note. But it does leave the question open: what would Trump do upon being rebuffed by Putin?
In fact, the latest Economist piece claims Zelensky and his team ended up secretly hoping for a Trump victory for a chance at exactly this type of ‘shake up’:
Disillusioned with Biden and Jake Sullivan’s vacillating, Zelensky allegedly shifted hopes to an erratic Trump ‘ripping up the rulebook’ and springing some kind of positive surprise.
Trump’s “rumored” initial plan, however, is a prima facie mediocre and unimaginative one: Korean-style DMZ with “European troops” staged as trip-wire forces, which has animated Western crowds into flights of fancy:
Trump's team has begun discussing a new plan to end the conflict in Ukraine, — WSJ
▪️The agreement includes several points: they want to oblige Kyiv to refuse to join NATO for decades, and freeze the front line and create a demilitarized zone.
▪️It is not known who will ensure its security, but one source ruled out the involvement of US and UN troops: "We will not send Americans to maintain peace in Ukraine. And we will not pay for it. Ask the Poles, Germans, English and French to do it."
▪️Ukraine will also continue to receive weapons and military training assistance from the US
The above does not in any way address Putin’s requisite demands vis-a-vis demilitarization, deNazification, et cetera. Of course, Trump could spritz on a shock sweetener of a total repeal of sanctions, but it’s hard to imagine even this would be enough given Putin’s bloodsworn promises to his own people on the central premises of the ‘Special Operation’.
The truth is, more and more people on the Western side now openly pose the inconvenient question of why, exactly, Putin would even deign to negotiate when the war is just finally starting to obviously break his way.
Here’s an AFU military unit account posing just that:
And CNN’s recent:
Ultimately, as can be seen the two sides appear at a loggerheads: Trump in his supreme vanity thinks he can end a nigh holy war that has spilled the blood of hundreds of thousands of people on both sides with the snap of a finger—this is the height of disrespect to both sides, particularly to Russia and Putin. But personally I can’t imagine Trump trying to escalate, beyond blowhard bluffs, because as stated, the US doesn’t have much of anything left to give beyond rusted junk or critical strategic reserves. The only possible way I can see out of it is Trump cutting all aid to Ukraine and allowing a full capitulation while blaming it on Europe after passing them the buck.
Still, for someone who made the fateful Afghanistan withdrawal debacle a rhetorical sticking point and highlight of his criticisms against Biden’s admin, it’s hard to imagine Trump swallowing the bitter Ukrainian pill given that it would appear—or at least be portrayed—as a grave disaster and embarrassment under his watch, akin to the Afghanistan fiasco. As such, we can imagine a possibility that Trump could potentially try to ante up the situation by allowing Ukrainian deep strikes, but this will only start a global conflagration for the US that Trump would be unable to put out: Russia would escalate in arming US enemies all across the board—Houthis, etc.—creating untenable nightmares in the Mideast and beyond.
We’ll close this section with Russian ambassador to UK Andrei Kelin’s reaffirmation of Russia’s negotiating positions:
Compromise is out of the question. Zaporozhye and Kherson are Russian
Russia will not make concessions to Ukraine – all demands of the Russian Federation will be met. These are demilitarization, denazification and neutral status of the country.
The Russian Ambassador to Great Britain, Andrei Kelin, stated this in an interview with the BBC
"I don't think there'll be a compromise - It's perfectly clear – Ukraine will be a non-aligned, non-nuclear country with normal relations with neighbors, and it will not have NATO membership. It will be demilitarized.. And in the end will repeal all anti-Russian laws adopted in recent years"," Kelin said.
Russia will not withdraw its troops from regions where referendums were held, the results of which are enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation.
“I don’t think so, because earlier, when we negotiated in 2022, there was such an option, a possibility. Now these four regions belong to Russia” the ambassador summed up.
Ukraine continues to suffer grave mobilization woes. Here a Ukrainian MP confirms the numbers are badly down since summer:
"UKRAINE FAILS TO MEET MOBILIZATION PLAN FOR 2024": - MP of the Ukrainian Defense Committee, Solomiya Bobrovskaya (speaking). We are not fulfilling the plan for this year, nor for the month that was set.
We are returning to the situation of spring 2024 - she says. What Ukraine calls mobilization, other countries may call kidnapping of all men. As such, it is running out of men & looking to lower the mobilization age to 18 (from current 25, and before that 27.) So far, Zelensky said he would not do that. But he also got voted in on a campaign of peace, promising to end the civil conflict in Donbass
A Ukrainian officer says losses in retreat are nearly as high as on attack—confirming a much discussed talking point amongst our analyst community.
"The trend is clear. Almost no one wants to join the infantry. The death rate is too high... There is no trust in the military leadership. Just in fact. We're retreating. And the army loses as many people in retreat as the army loses in the offensive."
The same officer later says “it’s time to start digging fortifications in Kiev”.
Shockingly another Ukrainian politician says it’s soon time to forcibly press gang everyone into a no-pay labor service:
"And then no one will have any salaries. There will be rations, money for cigarettes and gasoline on coupons," said Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Court of Ukraine Aleksandr Mamaluy.
And this has actually become a creepingly common sentiment as the previous officer likewise states millions of people should be called up for free, with no salaries in order to effect a massive push against Russian forces:
To defeat Russia, Ukraine needs to overwhelm it with "meat", by conscripting 4 million people, of whom a million will die, and not pay them salaries, - Martin Brest .
"4 million to be called up for military service. Don't pay them salaries, just feed them, because it's pointless. Carry out the operation within a maximum of one year. We'll put in about a million - and we'll reach the border. There's no point (in paying soldiers' salaries). The money will then be like pieces of paper, we'll light our cigarettes from them. Why should 4 million be called up? There won't be enough weapons to fight smartly. We'll have to fight with meat... And even more meat, because only machine guns will be enough for 4 million. And there certainly won't be enough drones, artillery, or aircraft. In this way, we'll be able to reach the borders of 1991.
Will the country survive after this? No, it won't. It will fall apart," Brest said.
The earlier Economist article confirms the woes:
"Ukraine is struggling to replace battlefield losses with conscription, barely hitting two-thirds of its target. Russia, meanwhile, is replacing its losses by recruitment with lucrative contracts, without needing to revert to mass mobilisation. A senior Ukrainian military commander admits that there has been a collapse in morale in some of the worst sections of the front. A source in the general staff suggests that nearly a fifth of soldiers have gone AWOL from their positions."
So: Ukraine is hitting a fraction of its mobilization figures, and fully 20% of soldiers go AWOL from positions—this is confirmed by major Western press, not some pro-Russian propaganda outlet or whatnot.
The AWOL issue has become so commonplace that top AFU brigades compete amongst each other in welcoming deserters back, hoping to win them over with a more friendly or hospitable approach:
Meanwhile, ex-Aidar commander Dikiy again confirmed the numbers that Ukraine requires an immediate 500k men to stabilize the front with an additional 20-30k monthly replenishment thereafter, which seems to all but confirm Ukraine’s monthly losses.
Taras Chmut echoes some of the above, saying only a tiny handful of men in Ukrainian brigades are combat capable:
Official Speaker of the Ukrainian Airforce Yuriy Ignat, by the way, confirmed Maria Bezuglaya’s words that Ukraine is press-ganging critical air defense forces into combat and assault units, which is gravely eroding Ukraine’s AD capabilities. Note the “martyrs” he refers to are the Russian Shahed drones:
—
The situation has not been improving anywhere. Yesterday Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrsky seemed to play up the Kursk success, noting some figures that do sound accurate—he claims ~7,000 Russian KIA in the operation since August. Putin’s figures were that 30,000 Ukrainians perished in Kursk, so the disparity seems believable. I wouldn’t doubt if it’s a bit closer because Kursk was essentially the most elite Ukrainian units against mostly Russian border guards, up until recently.
Bezuglaya again could be seen ribbing Syrsky above, because Russians now launched a major counter-attack again regaining territory and pushing the remnants of Ukraine’s contingent closer and closer toward Sudzha. The northern town of Pogrebki was said to be either captured or assaulted as Russian forces were geolocated there from video footage around 51.37040405100463, 35.22258690146927:
Meanwhile, as we’ve been saying, Russian forces have activated along the Zaporozhye line, capturing several positions near Orekhov and Hulaipole. Depicted here is just south of Orekhov on the west Zapo line:
Ukrainian officer channel reports the force buildup:
On the Ugledar-Kurakhove line Russia continues advancing, fortifying the southern wall by expanding both northward and the westward flank, capturing new territory near Velyka Novosilka:
The new axis of attack has been from the north with Russian forces now approaching the critical juncture of Sontsovka, which will allow establishment of fire control over the last MSR westward out of Kurakhove and effectively begin its total encirclement:
There were reported clashes in Sontsovka with AFU sources claiming they managed to retain control for now. They report Stari Terny just to the south is the final goal of the encirclement.
Here’s an extremely detailed thread of the Kurakhove fight which shows why the town is so difficult to approach. There are layered defenses and entrenchments everywhere, which can be seen in clear satellite photos.
Some last disparate items:
As Germany continues to teeter on the edge of the abyss, some interesting revelations are being made about some of Germany’s true motivations:
TRUTH ABOUT UKRAINE: German Talkshow on state TV, asks a Green MP of the parliament (Hofreiter) if it is a war for resources, specifically for lithium.
Bundestag deputy Anton Hofreiter leaked all the trumps. "In the eastern part of Ukraine, large reserves of lithium are concentrated and Germany is waging a war for them.
Lanz: “It has direct economic impact and we need this lithium in Germany.” The green politician says, “correct” it is about lithium. -> So Ukranian man are snatched from the streets, so the green agenda can continue and electric cars can be build in Europe.
Now, after the governmental collapse Germany’s new finance minister is said to be ex-head of Germany’s Goldman Sachs division Jörg Kukies:
Even worse, he allegedly was head of a BlackRock division, though I could not independently verify that at this time:
He joined BlackRock in 2014, where he served as Managing Director and Co-Head of BlackRock's European operations. In that capacity, Kukies was involved in overseeing the firm's business across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), as well as managing relationships with large institutional clients and regulators.
It seems Germany is headed for the same takeover as Ukraine.
—
A note on the supposed negotiations going on between Russia and Ukraine vis-a-vis strikes on energy grids. Yermak himself has denied it in a new interview:
Yermak finally explained what Ukraine means when they talk about an agreement with Russia on ending strikes against the energy sector:
"These negotiations, the way they write about them, that these are supposedly negotiations between Ukraine and Russia - this is definitely not true.
What is actually happening: we held themed conferences, the first conference was about energy security. It was online, but Qatar was the co-organizer. And when this conference took place, we recorded the principles on this point of the "peace formula". All these themed conferences are held without Russia. After that we said that if today, for example, Qatar or another country is ready to implement these agreements through agreements with Ukraine separately and, for example, separately with the Russian Federation - they are welcome to".
Instead he confirms Ukraine tried to perhaps extend an olive branch in a face-saving way, where it would not have to negotiate with Russia directly.
—
Lastly, Center for Strategic and International Studies makes some big admissions about the evolution of Russia’s strike capabilities:
RUSSIA IS STRIKE CAPABLE!
The Center for Strategic & International Studies explains that Russia has progressed at many capabilities:
1) Russia’s Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance strike loop became really tight, they spot a target and put a missile on it IN MINUTES.
2) Russia has a working industrial base and take what ever Ukrainians do, replicate and scale it up quickly, while Ukraine can’t. (As I wrote before)
3) Russians started targeting even small workshops for drone manufacturing and their part suppliers.
4) Russians likely receive satellite imagery from their partners or shell companies. -> Also interesting, how they discuss the point that Ukraine hides its drone manufacturing between civilians! She says “that exposes civilians to that risk”, so US is aware of the human shields, but are fine with it.
Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.
Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius
I will hold off on judging a Trump peace plan for Ukraine until it comes from him officially. There's a lot of bullshit flying around right now, with the scumbag neocons pushing plans that are supposedly from Trump, but that have no official backing from him whatsoever.
My hope is that he and Putin can cut a deal and end the war. If not, then Trump should simply cut all funding to Ukraine and let it collapse. The Russians can take what they wish and hand the rest off to the EU. Let them deal with it since they helped make the mess in the first place.
The Russians will NOT accept any of the bullshit neocon plans, nor should they. They are winning the war and have the right to decide what's what by right of conquest.
>> "the legitimate concern is that Trump will make some inane offer which will be rebuffed by Putin, that will not only hurt Trump’s ego but embarrass him on the world stage, causing him to seek retaliation by threatening to go “all in” on Ukraine" <<
This, quoted above, is indicative of the Putinization of DJT: something will embarrass him, something will humiliate him, something will cause him to lash out.
Rhetorically, it acts as a goading: mind-read DJT and tell him what he is going to do before he has had a chance to act--*in order to force him into fast & quixotic action.*. It is a style of Narrative Escalation like we have seen used on VVP: print the lie out there publicly, according to "anonymous sources." Then get "experts" in other media outlets to weigh-in on the assertion [the lie]--a process known as stovepiping. Have several retired generals saber-rattle on CNN about the assertions [the lie] and what so-and-so said, driving the news-cycle ad infinitum.
The public lie becomes the bright & shiny object over which everyone can spill the ink & spill the tea. Eventually, the whole rhetorical process of Narrative Escalation will get used against DJT when he ends up not doing what "they," the anonymous sources, said he would do.
Example: they say Pompeo will be his Secretary of State.
Suddenly all the talk is of Pompeo: pros & cons.
Axios will ask Susie Wiles if Pompeo is coming in as Secretary of State. She offers no comment.
Then they collar Elon and get him to opine. He deflects.
Eventually an irate DJT supporter objects vociferously to the choice of Pompeo as Secretary of State. Other firebrands step forward. Liz Cheney starts defending Pompeo as the best choice @ State.
Narrative Escalation itself will go thermobaric, sucking all the oxygen out of the Beltway, if not the room.
The media stenographers & typists are auguring still to be relevant.