SITREP 11/11/24: Ukraine Scrambles for Diplomacy as Clock Winds Down on New Russian Offensive

As mentioned last time, in the post-Trump election victory all the powers-that-be in the world continue scrambling and jockeying to position themselves at the foot of the incoming administration’s throne. This apparently includes ‘seeding the field’ with all sorts of disinformation as a way of ‘shaping the battlefield’ to create favorable conditions for each party upon the beginning of Trump’s term.

The latest in this regard are rumors that Trump ‘spoke to Putin on the phone’, which the Kremlin has now decisively debunked as totally fake:

Kremlin spokesman denied The Washington Post's report about a phone conversation between Putin and Trump. "This is the most striking example of the quality of information sometimes published in respected publications. It is completely untrue. It is pure fiction, false information," Peskov said.

B at MoA also quite thoroughly tore this hoax to shreds with ample evidence.

The most important aspect this affects is that the rumored phone call had Trump ‘warning’ Putin “not to escalate” and that US had ‘forces’ in Europe, as some implied threat. This aimed to present Trump as taking that threatening bravado tone many had feared he would assume in the wake of Pompeo’s wishful ‘Trump peace plan’, with its retaliatory $500B Lend Lease to Ukraine. In fact, it seemed discordantly out of character given the context, and immediately smacked to me of someone attempting to deviously pull strings to stoke tensions and provoke Russia.

In fact, the current visible actions surrounding Trump’s administration picks do seem to optimistically point to Trump getting his act together, which cuts favorably with our imaginings of Trump 2.0’s approach to everything including foreign policy with Russia. Or at least mostly this is the case, there are some bad signs; to wit, read Trump’s new pick’s previous statement on the Ukraine war:

As well as this.

Other rumors claimed that Trump would approach Zelensky by questioning his ultimate objective: if the answer is to retake Crimea and other territories, Trump would immediately know he’s dealing with an unrealistic actor and act accordingly himself. In short, he wants to lay the groundwork of understanding that their relationship can only move forward if Ukraine is fundamentally aligned with reality on a base level.

Senior adviser to Trump Brian Lanza in an interview with the BBC gave the whole scenario of Trump's actions in relation to Ukraine after taking office. First of all, Kiev will be asked how they see their future.

If Zelensky is seen as a "Ukrainian Crimea" in the future, it means that he does not take the matter seriously and there will be no dialogue with him.
Lanza said that the future administration will focus on achieving peace, not on retaking territories.: "Crimea is gone - and Zelensky needs to admit it." Otherwise, Americans are out of the way with Ukraine, and let them not expect that American soldiers will die for Zelensky's fantasies.

But in general, for now we must ignore virtually everything we hear from ‘rumors’ and the like, because at the end of the day, as stated in the opening, there is a mad dash of posturing from all sides, which includes various information war packages even from within Washington itself in order to ‘shape the battlefield’ as preparatory action for the opening of Trump’s term. All kinds of fake, distorted, and manipulated info canards will be sent out between now and then for the sake of each side’s jockeying into place.

This could perhaps include Russian info packages as well, so take it with a small grain of salt, but this was an interesting news bite reported by Tass, Sputnik, and RT:

https://sputnikglobe.com/20241111/us-eyes-holding-presidential-parliamentary-elections-in-ukraine-in-2025---russian-intel-1120850759.html

The United States is considering holding parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine in 2025, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported.

The creation of a new pro-American party is being discussed among US-funded Ukrainian activists. The nomination of candidates for the elections will be carried out in agreement with the State Department.

This is precisely what we’ve been predicting here since last year: that once Zelensky begins to act recalcitrant against ending the war, Washington would have no choice but to begin drumming up ‘democratic’ Ukrainian elections in order to install a new more popular leader, amenable to Washington’s demands. To manufacture victory for this leader would be as easy for Washington as any other routine coup, since all media organs are owned by the West. Zaluzhny would be the obvious choice particularly since I reported several articles ago how he had recently hinted he’s no longer concerned about regaining all Ukrainian territory, which is likely his way of signaling to the West that he’s the man for the hatchet job.

The problem with all this is that it still all relies entirely on the mythical belief that Putin will negotiate and end the war so long as there’s an agreeable Ukrainian ‘leader’ to meet him at the table. But there is no indication of that given that Russia continues signaling maximalist intentions of achieving all stated SMO goals, which includes the liberation of Zaporozhye and Kherson in their entirety—capital cities included.

The truth is this: Previously I had been convinced Zelensky had no choice but to mobilize down to the 18-year olds, which would have bought Ukraine another year or two of dogged defense. But now, I’m starting to wonder if that’s even possible. Zelensky is so quickly falling out of favor that I just don’t see how he could pull off such a mass societal mobilization. One suspects the likelihood is going up of the scenario where Zelensky never even manages to quite reach that point of mobilization expansion, before some other fait accompli dramatically preempts it.

The big gamechanger which decides which way things go on this account will undoubtedly be Russia’s expected winter strike campaign on the energy grid. If rumors of secret negotiations remain false and Russia follows through with carrying out a ‘dark winter’ without any late leniency from Putin, it could be the deciding factor which sours society to the war to such an extent as to completely preclude Zelensky’s ability of drafting the 18-year olds.

—

On that count, WSJ updates us with the latest:

https://www.wsj.com/world/inside-ukraines-quest-to-keep-the-lights-on-as-winter-descends-07ac2b6b

Summary:

Kurakhovskaya TPP dismantled for spare parts to repair other power plants damaged by strikes, - Wall Street Journal

▪️The decision was made in the spring, when a strike was carried out and the bridge through which the thermal power plant was supplied with coal was destroyed. Without it, the station could not function, and the restoration of infrastructure in the immediate vicinity of the front line was impossible.

➖"Of course, it was very difficult. We had no choice," said the head of the facility, Anatoly Borichevsky.

▪️By the end of the summer, dismantling was almost complete, which allowed for the prompt repair of many other objects. Only boilers and other elements too bulky to transport remained.

▪️Let us recall that Kurakhovo is under threat of Russian encirclement.

The article describes how Ukraine was forced to completely dismantle and cannibalize the power plant at Kurakhove to use its parts in other plants struck earlier farther west.

One interesting thing mentioned was that if the winter happens to be a ‘mild one’ then Ukraine could manage without too many devastating blackouts. And as I hear it from meteorologists, Russia has been slated to have a very ‘mild’ winter, which we can only assume will reflect somewhat in Ukraine as well. Thus, Ukraine could pull off surviving this winter unless Russia truly puts its foot down and finishes off the grid with another round of withering strikes.

For now, Russian Tu-95s have been absent for quite a while now, and the last fired Kh-101 was something like over a month ago. It can mean one of only two things: either Russia is saving up Kh-101s for a devastating series of barrages; or the feared rumors of pussyfooting were true and Putin has decided to let the Ukrainian civil society off the hook this winter, not wanting to completely plunge civilian populations into a dark age. We should find out which of those options it is in the semi-near future.

This brings us to the next point: Most people do not quite understand what’s happening in Kursk, and why Russia has yet to fully liberate it despite it now having been just over three months since the invasion. Zelensky has gone all in because he now views Kursk as literally his final trump card to save any type of negotiations hand he may have.

Spanish paper El Pais explains:

Spanish El Pais writes that Kiev has concentrated more combat-ready units in the Kursk region than in the entire Donbas. The information comes with a link to Ukrainian soldiers who are happy with the size of the group in the Kursk region and rotations every 10 days.

The sergeant of the 225th OSB of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the command has been given the task of holding the bridgehead in the Kursk region at all costs and "continuing the offensive." Kiev still counts on a "land exchange", and for this reason Zelensky will hold a piece of the Kursk region until the last soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This is also why the North Korean army psyop is being amplified to such extremes, because Zelensky needs a face-saving out in case Kursk is lost, so he has a true excuse for why he wasted the last remnants of his army on such a pointless escapade.

Thus, Zelensky is pumping Kursk with all Ukraine’s currently fieldable reserves, its most elite units and equipment, etc., to the great detriment of every other front. He’s absolutely desperate to keep Kursk at all costs because he thinks it’s the only thing that will allow him to argue for an exchange with at least some of his territory back in order to save face, in the ‘upcoming negotiations’ he’s so certain will take place.

Hear it from a Ukrainian officer himself:

So, now taking advantage of Zelensky’s fixation, Russia will be expanding the front in order to really put pressure on all the areas Zelensky robbed of defenses for his ploy.

As such, concerns around the coming Zaporozhye offensive have reached fever pitch:

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦The Russian army plans to launch an offensive on Zaporizhia in the coming days, — the Armed Forces of Ukraine

▪️In the Zaporizhia direction, Russian troops outnumber Ukrainian forces, said the spokesman for the Southern Defense Forces, Vladislav Voloshin.

🇷🇺🇺🇦Russians may begin assaults in the Zaporizhia region within a few days.

This was stated by the spokesman for the Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces, Vladislav Voloshin, Sky News reports.

According to Voloshin, the attacks could create a new point of pressure for Ukrainian troops, who are already retreating in the east, although it is not yet clear whether this will be one large-scale Russian offensive or separate assaults.

"The assaults could begin in the near future, we are not even talking about weeks, we expect this to happen any day," the speaker said.

He added that Russian troops in the area significantly outnumber Ukrainian military personnel.

Kiev Independent:

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-expected-to-happen-any-day-military-says/

Another Ukrainian channel:

And in fact, it seems the offensive may have even already started, because as of today, Russia launched a couple sizable attacks that immediately earned results.

Firstly, Ukrainian Aidar commander reports Russian forces launching an assault in Gulyaipole:

According to Ukrainian military commander Stanislav Bunyatov, from the 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar", Russian Forces have become active in the direction of Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzia region.

"They launched a mechanized assault on our Positions, involving about 5 units of heavy Equipment and Motorcycles, one infantry fighting vehicle was drowned in the lake. No more details yet."

I can tell you the details: Our Troops have taken the positions that was stormed.

Just to the east of there, Russian forces attacked Makarovka and captured either half or all of the settlement, as there were reports of them raising a flag over the central building.

⚔️Russian Army Storms Makarovka and Breaks Through to Rivne

▪️In the South Donetsk direction, fighters from the 60th motorized rifle brigade broke through to Makarovka yesterday and installed the Russian flag in the village.

▪️Today the enemy publishes a map with a lag, but reports something alarming:

➖ A difficult day for the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Makarovka and Rivnepol (Vremyevsk salient, at the junction of Zaporizhia and the DPR).

➖The Russians are carrying out assault operations with forces of up to 50-60 soldiers at a time, as well as with the support of armored fighting vehicles and motorcycle units.

▪️ The goal of the Russian army is to enter and consolidate in Rivne and Makarovka. If the situation in the latter is more or less clear, then the situation in Rivne is unknown.

▪️Let us recall that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to take Makarovka during the enemy’s summer counteroffensive in 2023.

RVvoenkor

A wider view to remind you that Makarovka is part of the old Velyka Novosilka line that was one of the AFU’s main advance points during the big 2023 summer offensive:

Everything west and north of those yellow lines was just captured in the past couple weeks, showing the walls closing in on the old stronghold of Velyka Novosilka.

But even on the far western Zapo line Russian forces continue to inch up out of Nesteryanka toward Orekhov (“Nuts” on the map below):

There were many other advances, particularly in the north near Terny and Kupyansk:

In Sontsovka southwest of Selidovo as well as Novooleksiivka just nearby as well.

The biggest advances of course came in what is currently the main frontline of Kurakhove. Here’s DeepState channel’s time lapse of the past 10 days there:

South Front’s maps of the advances there for the past few days:

A clearer and more zoomed in map shows Russian forces made progress through the east of the Kurakhove city itself:

Having lodged themselves in Sontsovka, capturing half or most of the town, Russian forces are a mere 5km from Kurakhove’s main—and last remaining—supply route:

Syrsky issued a statement on his official account wherein he confirmed the situation was deteriorating:

Some last few items:

Legitimny channel had an interesting theory for how Trump will approach the armistice negotiations, which does seem reasonably realistic and clever:

Legitimate

Our source modeled for us a scenario where Trump doesn't have to force anyone into peace talks on the Ukraine crisis.

As the source explained, the matter will be simpler. Trump will roll out his proposals, the Kremlin will respond that it is ready to negotiate, but at the highest level (Trump-Putin-Ze), but Zelensky will refuse because there will be provisions about the rejection of territories that you do not control and a lot of other things, plus the most important thing - the lifting of sanctions on Russia and re-elections in Ukraine with the admission of all (amnesty for all). Also for Ze to negotiate with Putin is a failure. He should revoke his own decree banning negotiations.

Trump will reply that he tried, but the Kiev authorities refused, so we wash our hands of it and leave all this shit to Europe. They will say that they don't have enough money and weapons and won't pull it out themselves. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will start retreating even faster, making the situation even worse.

At the same time, Trump will call the Ukrainian government corrupt and start an audit criticizing the Democrats.

This could be the scenario. One thing is certain. The year 2025 will be decisive and many are sure that by the end of the 25th year or the beginning of 2026, there will be elections anyway. Zelensky will lose.

We'll see how it goes.

—

An interesting quote from a AFU General Staff spokesman who casually admits that Russia has added a whopping 100,000 troops, proving that Russia is gaining a net positive in its mobilization/losses split:

The General Staff of the Armed Forces explained the need to create new brigades instead of replenishing the existing personnel

The spokesman of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Dmytro Lykhov, explained the need to create new brigades in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and strengthen the brigades' defense areas with battalions from other military units.

"On this occasion, the following clarifications must be made. Recently, the enemy has increased the number of regiments, brigades and divisions and the number of its personnel by almost 100,000 people. The length of the front line has also increased. In order to close the front, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must to create new brigades ," the spokesman said.

Lykhovi emphasized that there is simply no other effective way to counter the enemy who prevails, as today there are 1,300 km of frontline with active combat clashes.

The General Staff also noted that the Russian occupiers have a significant advantage, sometimes a five-fold advantage, on the battle line.

"Therefore, when during hostilities there is a threat of losing the positions and lines of defense of certain brigades, the redeployment of individual battalions of other military units is used here. This is a logical and regulated method of action to strengthen the defense: when there is a threat of a breakthrough in problematic areas of the front, they are transferred to it units from unattacked areas," Lykhova said.

He noted that in conditions of insufficient forces and means, this is the optimal way to counteract the prevailing enemy forces, thus reducing the risk of a breakthrough. Also, according to the spokesman, it should be taken into account that currently the Armed Forces do not have the opportunity to quickly replenish the brigades with personnel.

Such a need is scheduled a month in advance. It is also necessary to understand that the people who fill up the unit must undergo adaptation and coordination in it, and this takes time. That is why, to strengthen the section of the front, where there is a threat of a breakthrough, an already formed unit is used, which is ready to perform the task in a short time," - the Armed Forces explained.

In addition, Lykhovi emphasized that brigades are also needed for rotation and replacement of already existing brigades.

"You can't limit yourself to the simple replenishment of brigades that have suffered significant losses either - because they need combat coordination. New brigades are needed to replace them and withdraw them from the combat zone," the spokesman added.

👉 Ukrainian Post

—

Russian Center Group forces have officially entered their first M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley into service with the Russian Army:

The most interesting aspect is the operator fairly compares the Bradley to Russian BMPs, extolling its defensive characteristics, while confirming the Russian equivalent’s offensive capabilities are stronger. One of the classic age-old arguments is about the Russian 30mm 2A72 gun’s accuracy and fire-controls as compared to the more ‘accurate’ 25mm Bushmaster on the Bradley. Here the serviceman opines the 2A72 is “much, much” superior to the Bushmaster.

I don’t know why it’s so hard for people to admit the balance of strengths and weaknesses: the Bradley is a “tank”, colloquially speaking, with superior defense (at 30 tons, it’s literally more than double the weight of the 14.8t BMP-2); the BMPs are glass cannons with far more powerful offensive capabilities, but less defenses. This makes them uniquely suited for different mission types where each can excel in different roles. The BMP can’t soak up as much damage as a Bradley, and the Bradley can’t deal out anywhere near the damage of a BMP.

And for the record, the 2A42 has already faced off directly with the Bradley’s M242 when a Russian BTR-82 famously collided with the Bradley near Sokol, west of Ocheretino. Both blazed their autocannons at each other, landing mutual hits—and despite having paper-thin armor, the BTR won.

—

Lastly, a spectacular video of 62-year old legendary test pilot Sergey Bogdan wowing the Chinese audience with the Su-57’s (actually T-50 demonstrator) first ever showing in China, at the Zhuhai airshow. By the way, Shoigu has now touched down in China to meet with defense ministers, and potentially discuss arms sales—one of the reasons the Su-57 was being demonstrated there is around discussions of selling the export version, Su-57E, to China.

Here is the pilot after the show:

Russian Su-57 fighter pilot and a Chinese Z-20 helicopter pilot at an exhibition in China.

At the same time, UAC delivered a brand new factory ‘batch’ of Su-57s (likely only one or two of these at most) and Su-35s to the Russian airforce:

---

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

---