SITREP 10/5/24: Post-Ugledar Landscape Unfurls into Dark Ukrainian Future
SITREP 10/5/24: Post-Ugledar Landscape Unfurls into Dark Ukrainian Future
We turn back to Ukraine, where the deterioration continues to accelerate.
As the key fortress-town of Ugledar fell days ago, a number of MSM articles began to highlight a truly grisly picture of the situation behind the scenes. The first horrors were recorded from the 123rd Brigade, a commander of which reportedly committed suicide by shooting himself after hundreds of his troops mutinied.
About a hundred Ukrainian Troops from the 187th Battalion of the 123rd Brigade refused to carry out a combat mission and left the military unit in Donbass, Ukrainian media write.
They came out to a rally in Voznesensk, Nikolaev Oblast, to declare insufficient training and a lack of weapons to participate in combat operations.
The above photo purports to show the mutinying troops who abandoned their positions and withdrew to Nikolayev in the rear to complain or perhaps confront their higher ups.
The most harrowing were from Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade, which was the chief garrison at Ugledar. This brigade was almost entirely annihilated, and the stories coming out directly from its troops are shocking.
This article covers it in most detail:
One of the soldiers describes the losses:
Viktor tells us how many men he has left in the battalion. Out of 350 people, there are up to 30 people left for one platoon. This includes mechanics, drivers, and recently infantrymen who held the front line — a 2-3 kilometre strip — and there were 14-18 people in the unit.
In this thread a prominent Kiev commentator says the 72nd was being annihilated on retreat.
The story was echoed by other sources: since the retreat order was given so late—and in fact, according to some it wasn’t even given at all and the brigade merely began to abandon its positions on its own—the men were forced to retreat through a tiny, narrow corridor which was already entirely under Russian fire control. The 72nd was subjected to massive firebombing as they retreated in the open, as this sample video shows:
There are numerous videos of totally liquidated corpses from TOS-1 thermobaric strikes in this corridor.
That’s not to mention that the AFU units said Russia continued to ‘remote mine’ all the rear roads via units like the ‘Agriculture’ remote mining MLRS, which added to the carnage. They point to Russia’s tactic in infiltrating Ugledar being the “isolation” of Ukrainian units in sectors via such mining, then taking out one unit and sector at a time, all while a pincer of Russian forces from both east and west entered the city.
Of course, it didn’t help that Russia uses massive ODAB thermobaric bombs like this one to incinerate everyone in a wide vicinity:
From another Ukrainian source:
"Of the 50 recruits sent to strengthen the defense of Ugledar, only four got into position, but they also deserted during the first rotation," — Ukrainian Armed Forces militant Boyko
Information about the last reinforcement of the 72nd brigade personnel before the surrender of Ugledar. 50 recruits arrived to the brigade, mostly aged 52-56. 30 of them were immediately sent to rear units and hospitals, since they were not fit for service on the front lines due to health reasons (because the TCK was fulfilling the conscription plan and mobilizing the sick). Of the remaining 20, 16 servicemen deserted on the second day. Thus, 4 were sent to positions out of a reinforcement of 50 people, after the first rotation these four also deserted," writes journalist Boyko.
He calls the loss of the city a "local collapse of the front," and writes that a similar situation with the replenishment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is observed along the entire line of conflict.
"It will only get worse. Until March 2024, it was still possible to fix the situation, but today the collapse of the army has reached such a scale that no measures will help - there are simply no people at the front. There are not and will not be. Since the "busified" soldiers are not going to die for the rotten corrupt regime, and the means of coercion - that is, military justice - were eliminated by the 95th quarter back in 2019," writes Boyko. RVvoenkor
Atmospheric video of Russian forces which took the city:
Here are some of the officially listed units which participated:
‼️🇷🇺🎖 Russian Defense Minister Congratulates Fighters Who Liberated Ugledar
A. Belousov sent telegrams to the following address:
▪️5th separate guards tank Tatsinskaya Red Banner Order of Suvorov 2nd degree brigade;
▪️37th separate guards motorized rifle Budapest Red Banner Order of the Red Star brigade named after E.A. Shchadenko;
▪️40th Separate Guards Twice Red Banner Krasnodar-Harbin Marine Brigade;
▪️36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Lozovskaya Red Banner Brigade;
▪️430th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
🫡The Minister thanked the soldiers for their loyalty to their military duty and oath, expressing confidence that they will continue to honorably fulfill all assigned tasks, reliably protect national interests and ensure Russia's security.
But getting back to the “tactics” employed for a moment. This has come into closer scrutiny of late in the MSM, as Russia has accelerated its devastating gains.
The key point from the article above:
Soldiers from several units along the front have described improved Russian tactics this summer that combine their advantages into powerful attacks that Ukrainians have struggled to counteract, even as they achieve local victories.
They cite the usual: small Russian units embedding themselves discreetly which makes it difficult for Ukraine’s drones, artillery, etc., to hit these small, fast-moving fire teams. But another major admission is that Russian battlefield communications have reportedly seen vast improvements.
WaPo laments that this has resulted in large-scale territorial losses which are starting to mount up:
The above are advances in just the past few months.
As a counterbalancing cope, the article continues to cite ‘heavy’ Russian losses without any proof. In Ugledar in particular, this has become the last remaining reconciliation for the Ukrainian side: “Well, at least they suffered heavy losses to take the city.” But in practice, all available evidence points to the opposite.
It’s the Ukrainian side openly admitting to unfathomable losses, as in the case of the 72nd where entire battalions were reduced to a dozen men. In Russia’s case, recall how they said untold thousands were lost in the first Ugledar assaults in February 2023. Yet I have shown before that MediaZona’s own numbers debunk this. The site allows you to search specifically for Marines, which was the attacking force back then, and further filter the losses by month. Just to be generous, I put October 2022 to March 2023, though the infamous attacks where “major losses” of Russia’s Marine columns were seen occurred in February. But for that entire period of nearly six months, they only count 215 casualties:
That roughs out to nearly a single KIA per day on average. Even if you quadruple these numbers under some presumption it doesn’t represent all casualties there, it’s still tiny. Thus we can confidently say the present Ugledar liberation likely reflected these same casualty disparities—with AFU taking the heavy lion’s share of losses.
The Russian Armed Forces are advancing in Ukraine at an "unprecedented pace"
This is stated in an article by The Washington Post. They calculated that in August and September, about 820 square kilometers came under Russian control.
The newspaper's experts suggested that this is facilitated by improved Russian tactics, improved communications for coordination, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on the Kursk region.
Ultimately though, all the new ‘tactics’ is not what primarily contributed to the fall of Ugledar. The main responsible element was more holistic in nature:
1. The greater overall attrition of the AFU—less men, less arms and firepower, more tired and worn out men, etc. That’s not to mention many men from the region being pulled to help reinforce other even more critical zones like Pokrovsk, Kursk, etc.
2. Probably the most important: Ugledar was increasingly cut off by the much larger advancements Russia made to its direct north. The capture of Konstantinovka, Vodiane, etc., in the previous months led to a mountingly untenable position for Ugledar as its main supply routes fell under various forms of fire control.
Compare the above to a map of the region from February 2023 and note how the main road above has been completely cut:
This led to the progressive isolation of Ugledar as a fortress which slowly wore down the defenders there, depriving them of timely rotations, resupply, etc. In short, it was much more a slow constrictor-like envelopment and strangulation of the fortress-town, rather than one late miraculous strategic flourish of some kind.
One expert analysis of what the capture represents:
The significance of taking the powerful fortified area of Ugledar is operational, if not operational-strategic.
The fact is that this "balcony" was located at the junction of the Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk fronts and posed a constant threat to the group covering the approaches to Mariupol. Moreover, this salient did not allow the use of a powerful two-track road to Mariupol, which was in the immediate rear of our troops. It was only 15-16 km from the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That is why RF tried to take Ugledar many times, starting with the major offensive of January-February 2023, which then ended in failure.
For the railway connection with Mariupol, a more distant lateral line was built from the Donbas agglomeration via Kuteynikovo-Kichiksa (judging by satellite photos, it is still unfinished). The danger of the "balcony" was clearly high, and therefore the so-called "tsar-train" 32 km long was placed on the Volnovakha section of the railway, which additionally covered this threatened direction. Now, finally, there is an opportunity to unblock the line and use it for its intended purpose, after moving the front away from Ugledar.
A powerful lateral line = strengthening the stability of the front and confident communication with Mariupol.
The map shows the front line on 7.4.2024, it clearly shows how dangerous the Ugledar balcony was operationally. The second map shows how this ledge prevented the use of the powerful Soviet double-track.
1 - approximate line of contact of the "Ugledar balcony" in the stage of its holding by the Armed Forces of Ukraine
2 - Yasinovatsko-Donetsk railway gap east of Avdevka (still not restored)
3 - Placement of the Tsar-train on the Volnovakha section
4 - Construction of a straightening through Kuteynikovo - Kichiksu (partially completed)
#inf
For those who don’t know, the ‘Tsar Train’ referenced above was a massive 32km line of train carts—hundreds, if not thousands of them—which Russia positioned along the section of track shown in the map as a giant fortress wall and bulwark against potential Ukrainian invasion. Now this entire railway line can potentially be unblocked, opening a direct new communication/logistics route from the Donetsk region to Mariupol.
But furthermore, Ugledar itself now presents a fortress with great overwatch over the entire Kurakhove basin to the north. Quoting former-72nd Brigade member Igor Lutsenko, the previous Kiev-based analyst states:
What he means is that, it has been reported very few if any fortifications were made in the rear of Ugledar and the retreating 72nd was forced to hastily dig in in the open, while Russia now has overwatch over the whole region via the tall apartment blocks Ugledar affords:
What are the further strategic ramifications for this? They were spelled out by none other than Arestovich in his latest interview:
A summary:
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 The Ukrainian front may collapse in three to four months, according to former Ukrainian presidential office advisor Oleksiy Arestovych.
"In two to three months, well, three to four, the front, which is currently crumbling in two directions, and slowly retreating in three, will begin to crumble in six or seven. This flow will become uncontrollable. This means a collapse of the front," he said.
He stated that in this case, the Russian army will shift the war to maneuver warfare, leading to "the collapse of the front as such."
"When all these 700,000 with automatic weapons and artillery cannot hold the front line, the enemy will start to rapidly advance inward, cutting off Kharkov and reaching Poltava, Dnepr, and Zaporozhye. This will lead to the loss of key industrial centers of Ukraine," the former presidential office advisor noted.
Arestovych identified the main reason for what is happening as the lack of a reserve of motivated infantry.
"No drones can help reach the borders of any year if infantry soldiers do not walk this path under enemy fire... The training system has failed, there is a lack of basic motivation in the troops, but there is an understanding that the declared goal of the war – reaching the borders of 1991 – is unrealistic under these specific circumstances," he explained.
"Moreover, motivation is lacking due to internal politics, where every day new proposals are put forward by the powerful to limit citizens' rights: from cultural and language bans to economic restrictions. Almost every day, new corruption scandals emerge, and the chaos in the management of the army and the state intensifies," added the former presidential office advisor.
Arestovych believes that "now the only way out is to sober up, stop the war, and begin a complete reorganization of the state system."
In short, he says the collapse will accelerate in 3-4 months. Russia will for the first time be able to utilize full-on maneuver warfare to get into Ukraine’s “rear” areas, particularly with special ops forces, and all hell will break loose at that point. Essentially, he predicts the collapse of the AFU.
He states the two or three breakthrough areas will turn into six or seven, snowballing more and more. Right now there’s Ugledar, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk directions. But it is true that signs of instability are growing for the AFU in several other directions, particularly in the Kupyansk-Seversk axis, where Russia has made steady gains recently. There’s also been signs of upcoming pick-ups in movement in Zaporozhye.
Thus, I can definitely see his words ringing true as in several months all of those directions will face severe pressure and what just happened to the 72nd Brigade will begin to be faced by many others along the contact line.
Arestovich concludes that this avalanche will lead to the loss of all Ukrainian industrial centers east of the Dnieper, including Poltava, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, etc.
—
The latest FT article quotes soldiers on the frontline now changing their minds and preferring negotiations to end the war:
Once buoyed by hopes of liberating their lands, even soldiers at the front now voice a desire for negotiations with Russia to end the war. Yuriy, another commander on the eastern front who gave only his first name, says he fears the prospect of a “forever war”.
“I am for negotiations now,” he adds, expressing his concern that his son — also a soldier — could spend much of his life fighting and that his grandson might one day inherit an endless conflict.
“If the US turns off the spigot, we’re finished,” says another officer, a member of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade, in nearby Kurakhove.
The Biden administration is aware that its present strategy is not sustainable because “we are losing the war”, says Jeremy Shapiro, head of the Washington office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “They are thinking of how to move that war to a greater quiescence.”
They now admit Zelensky’s vaunted victory plan is merely the desperate last-ditch plea to get Russia to stop the war:
The article confirms that now 77% of all polled Ukrainians know someone who died in the war—shockingly adding that this statistic is four times higher than two years ago:
The survey showed the war was taking an ever heavier toll: 77 per cent of respondents reported the loss of family members, friends or acquaintances, four times as many as two years earlier. Two-thirds said they were finding it difficult or very difficult to live on their wartime income.
The article points to where this all leads—virtually all talks within the global deep state now revolve around pressuring Ukraine to end the war via land concessions to Russia:
“We’re talking more and more openly about how this ends and what Ukraine would have to give up in order to get a permanent peace deal,” says one of the diplomats, who was present in New York. “And that’s a major change from even six months ago, when this kind of talk was taboo.”
A new FT article quotes several top global figures in promulgating this type of closure to the conflict. They couch it under the impression that Ukraine would only be “temporarily” giving up these lands to regain them in the future via diplomatic methods.
‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Territorial surrender and security guarantees will form the basis of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, — Financial Times
▪️The publication notes that this would be a tacit agreement that these lands should be returned through diplomatic means.
▪️Ukraine must define a military defense border and agree not to permanently station troops or nuclear weapons on its territory unless it is threatened with attack.
But some of Ukraine’s elites are now scrambling for a way to keep the conflict from being frozen, in order to sustain their lives and livelihoods. The method is simple: create a big enough provocation against Russia that Russia refuses any sort of ceasefire. Arestovich also gave a nod to this method in his earlier interview.
Listen carefully to what he says in response to the interviewer asking how Ukraine can positively disrupt any potential ‘peace summits’:
“Blow up the Kremlin.”
Besides the above, he also names a terrorist attack with large amounts of civilian victims, particularly one on a nuclear power plant. This is precisely Zelensky’s backup plan if the West absolutely pushes him to end the conflict under the duress of withholding further weapons supplies and allowing Ukraine to do provocative “deep strikes” into Russia for the sole purpose of bringing NATO into the conflict.
Here Zelensky himself states that the war is unwinnable without these ‘deep strikes’:
But in reality, the deep strikes are one of the grandest red herrings of the entire war. Note how earlier this year no one was talking about any “deep strikes” because Ukraine still held out hope for some victory, as this was prior to the beginning of Russia’s grinding summer offensives that have now precipitated the AFU’s ongoing collapse.
When Ukraine still had hope for victory, there was no need to create this false mirage of ‘deep strikes’ because everyone knew Ukraine was already freely striking Russia far deeper than any NATO missiles could allow. Such missiles have paltry ranges compared to the hundreds of drones Ukraine was sending each week thousands of kilometers deep into Russia.
The bogus ‘deep strike’ mirage was created only when Ukraine had finally lost all hope at victory and a huge provocation was required to catastrophically change the calculus of the war in Ukraine’s favor by instigating NATO’s involvement.
There is some proof to this assertion. For instance, in my paywalled piece on the huge Toropets arsenal attack, readers will recall what I prophetically wrote:
Surprise, surprise, I was proven right, down to the exact location.
I said they could hit rear arsenals that aren’t participating in the SMO, but likely not active ones like in the Engels region, which is essentially Volgograd. Just several days ago, Ukraine announced a major strike attempt at precisely such an arsenal, one of the actual SMO-related ones in Volgograd.
From the official General Staff of the AFU account:
And here’s the result, as predicted—satellite BDA photos:
It turned out the large dark spot to the north of the arsenal is a field that was set on fire by falling drone debris. The strike was entirely repulsed with not even a single successful hit landing in the arsenal despite what was alleged to be a massive overwhelming drone, and possibly missile, swarm.
The point being: all these “vulnerable Russian bases” sitting “just outside” Ukraine’s strike range is a massive red herring being propagated by Zelensky. The fact is, the most critical Russian objects have always been far better protected and usually impervious to Ukrainian strikes. Only PR attacks on backwater areas have succeeded in creating big showy morale-boosting hits. Thus, Zelensky does not actually mean to successfully hit such areas but rather hit vulnerable civilian or critical infrastructure, like the aforementioned nuclear plants, to create force majeure provocations.
But one thing is certain, there are deeply radical groups within Ukraine that will not allow any capitulation or negotiations. Journalist Leonid Ragozin highlighted another new Azov statement, for instance, which is a response to the earlier FT article.
Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko told FT that the far right will dub any talks with the Russians capitulation and called them “a threat to democracy”.
A senior Azov movement figure, Maksym Zhorin, says that yes indeed they will and calls the far right “the foundation of country’s security”. Zhorin is the deputy commander of the 3rd Detached Assault Brigade, an elite unit under the political control of the far right Azov movement. For Azov movement and multinational securocratic interests behind it, the war is a lucrative business - an enormous pie they are sharing with the Russian siloviki mafia. They are not going to give it up easily.
One can engage in cheap and silly talk about “only 2% of Ukrainians supporting the far right” but they have all the military and political capability to upset any peace and they care little about 98% of Ukrainians. They succeeded in derailing the 2019 Paris agreements between Putin and Zelensky. Together with other far right movements, they staged a menacing campaign to prevent Zelensky from reaching a last-minute deal on the eve of the Russian full-out invasion in 2022. They are a major political and military force that should be reckoned with when peace talks start in earnest. If peace is finally reached, these professional soldiers and especially drone operators will fill up the ranks of organised crime in Europe and beyond.
Here’s the Azov figure’s post in question:
—
Now the other biggest talking point within Ukraine itself is the increasing reality that the 18-25 cohort will have to be forcibly mobilized. Here Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko says all that his Western sponsors talk about is mobilizing 18 year olds:
"We give you weapons, and you still don't want to mobilize men younger than 25!"
Ukrainian MP Kostenko says that US politicians put pressure on them to send every man to the meat grinder!
There are more and more “rumors” that such talks have advanced amongst Ukraine’s Rada. This would likely be planned for sometime next spring, give or take, as a last ditch measure.
Legitmny channel:
#hearings
Our source reports that next Ramstein Zelensky is preparing a plan to mobilize 600 thousand people in 2025, 50 thousand each month. Including women.
This will be the main trump card from Zelensky in the case of the relevance of the continuation of the war in Ukraine, as well as attempts to knock out additional financial tranches and arms transfers.
It is very important for Zelensky to extend the war in order to retain power and during this time to clean up all the uncomfortable fighters and commanders of the Armed Forces, as well as political and business competitors who are unlikely to survive another year of war and economic crisis in the country, which is predicted to be even more difficult than all previous ones.
The problem with the above is highlighted in The Times’ new article:
It states that Ukraine needs 200k new men by the end of this year. Unfortunately, the article provides one of the first truly official confirmations of how badly mobilization is failing:
In Odesa, a city of almost one million, one local conscription officer detailed how his department was falling well short of its targets. “We’re not mobilising even 20 per cent of what is required,” he said, adding that on some days more than 100 call-up papers were handed out, yet only a handful of men would respond. “Odesa region is one of the worst on the list.”
It is inevitable that Ukraine will have to open up the 18+ field, the only question is when. They may be banking on a coming freeze to the conflict to stave off the need for now, or at least a slow down during the winter. But if things continue as they are with Russia’s grinding offensive, by spring time it should certainly be a necessity.
We’ll mention a last article only for the small gem of insight it offers:
Here is the most notable part:
HIMARS has been reduced to a measly pittance of 10% effectiveness due to Russian EW. And it’s true from the observer perspective, HIMARS is hardly seen on the battlefield anymore. Sure, there were a couple strikes here and there the past month, but it’s down to about 2-3 notable strikes a month these days, maybe less.
The article ends gloomily with:
The war in Ukraine is at risk of being lost—not because the Russians are winning but because Ukraine’s allies have not allowed them to win. If we encourage the Ukrainians to fight while failing to give them the tools they need for victory, history will surely conclude that the Russians weren’t the only ones who committed crimes against Ukraine.
Some last items.
Retired Ukrainian general Sergei Krivonos confirmed what we all suspected—that last year General Zaluzhny was in fact badly injured in a Russian strike. What’s more, it appears he’s even implying that Zelensky was trying to purposely off him, which was a rumor I myself reported on at the time, particularly when Zaluzhny’s personal adjunct was assassinated via mail-bomb, if you’ll recall.
But what’s the insinuation here, that Zelensky himself sent Zaluzhny’s coordinates to Russia? You be the judge.
The only thing this tells us is that Budanov’s ‘incident’ last year was also likely real.
—
Speaking of which, there’s now credible rumor that Budanov, Syrsky, and Umerov may all three get the axe soon.
Surely a sign of things going well.
—
Samantha Power visited Kiev recently, boasting of the delivery of critical power plant components to help stave off the coming winter crisis:
Notice she said her USAID corporation is doubling their investments—not donations, gifts, altruistic warmhearted support for the people of Ukraine—no, investments was the key word. Ruminate on that.
But the truly egregious irony here goes as follows. Remember that wee little hurricane in the Appalachias? You know, the one that devastated the entire region this past week? Well, energy systems engineer Jesse Jenkins remarked on the devastating nature of the situation as much-needed substations are missing after the entire energy grid in the region was flooded and destroyed:
One wonders where those substations could be.
Woops.
—
Ukrainian MP Goncharenko gives an absolutely must-hear unhinged firebrand rant, calling for the bombing of Moscow by NATO ‘allies’:
What can one say about such people?
—
A very curious situation went down today. What appears to be the secretive Russian stealth S-70 Ohotnik drone was shot down by its own Su-57 wingman after allegedly losing data-link near Ukrainian territory. As soon as I saw the first videos I knew immediately that’s what it had to be, because there is no possibility for Ukrainian jets to have gotten that close at such altitude without being shot down by Russian AD.
There is great, good, and bad news here.
The great news is it shows Russia is not shying away from actively testing and using its most advanced tech directly on the front. I agree with FighterBomber’s chief takeaway which is that, the appropriate response from the pro-RU commentariat should not be shame but rather jubilation that there is now a massive noted increase in Russia’s most high-tech UCAVs being used, particularly the Orion which has seen a giant uptick in the past month.
One rumor even states that this means the S-70 has gone into some form of early production a year earlier than planned, while others believe it’s still merely an earlier test copy, pointing to lack of the final “production” variant Al-41 engines with closed inlet:
Alleged debris pointing to S-70 #4 in the test series prototypes at the crash site:
One claimed report:
More details about the downed S-70-4 "Hunter" over Konstantinovka. The bort index - 4 was found in the wreckage, it was probably the 4th prototype.
According to local sources, a couple of such planes have been hovering around the clock for the last three or four days over Konstantinovka, Alekseevo-Druzhkovka and Druzhkovka.
The Ukrainians could not knock them down in any way. Yesterday, an APU plane arrived twice to intercept them, without success.
The second great news is that the S-70 and its alleged Su-57 wingman were flying at ceiling limit altitudes literally along the contact line or even slightly inside Ukrainian territory, which would have previously meant the instantaneous shoot down of any such jet by Ukraine’s long range air defenses. Yet apparently neither one of them were detected at all—what does that mean? Clearly that Su-57 and S-70’s stealth characteristics may have in fact made them invisible to radars including the US Patriot systems.
The fact that they may have potentially been running these secret flights for a while undetected is very telling. What proof do we have for the assertion? The answer brings us to number three:
The bad news: The drone fell on Ukrainian territory around Konstantinovka:
On one hand Russian shot it down to prevent it from being captured, but the craft’s debris still fell into Ukrainian hands, and it’s uncertain how much they can learn from it. Either way, you don’t want your latest high-tech stealth gear falling into enemy hands, in one piece or not.
But as I said, the fact that it fell into enemy territory proves that it along with the Su-57 were flying at minimum over the contact line, if not even slightly beyond that in red territory. The fact they were not detected or shot down tells us everything we need to know about the Russian 5th generation stealth capabilities. This is particularly the case given that this is literally the hottest part of the front, where Russian Su-34s flinging glide-bombs are most active, and as consequence, where Ukraine’s best NATO long-range air defenses are likely positioned to counter-act them. As such, it’s very telling that the Russian stealth pair is able to operate freely here at ceiling-limit altitudes with full impunity.
Some ignorant pro-UA posters wrote the fact the Russian plane shot it down means the S-70 cannot be stealth because the plane must have got a radar lock on it. Amateurish dross. The Su-57 would have fired a close range infrared Fox Two, i.e. the R-73/74, which obviously can lock onto the drone’s engine heat from close proximity in the rear.
Lastly however: every competent first world military on the planet has doctrinal contingency to strike their downed equipment if it is in danger of falling into enemy hands. The US has done this countless times in Iraq, blowing up their own helicopters, tanks, planes, etc., on the ground. Why Russia could not have destroyed the S-70 crash site with a well-placed Iskander is beyond me and shows potentially deep flaws in Russian operations which stretch back to the start of the conflict where many first-rate prestige systems were abandoned to be captured by Ukraine, rather than somehow sabotaged or blown up via strike. Given that the object was so close to the contact line, any number of Russian scout drones like Orlans and Zalas could have pinpointed the location and sent a package there. Maybe that was done after the videos above? We don’t know for absolute certainty.
To play devil’s advocate: the only surviving intact part was a wing that detached, but here’s what the main body of the drone looks like:
I’m not sure if NATO specialists can recover much from that.
The only other alternative explanation I can concoct is that the test version of the drone used was deliberately a ‘stripped down’ version with some of its most secret elements missing, which is why it was risked so far over enemy territory. There is some evidence to this, with people remarking that the wings appeared to be missing secret stealth RAM coatings, etc.
Edit: latest report indicates perhaps the soggy parquet generals at the top heard the call after all (take with grain of salt for now):
As mentioned before, there’s been a huge uptick in heavy UCAV usage with the Orion, otherwise known as Inokhodets or Pacer. Here’s a few just from this week, with strikes on 2S22 Bogdan SPG, M777, and others:
A new Pravda Ukraine article attests to this surge in UAV usage of all types:
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Samantha Power is a ghoul. She appears to be a sadist who gets off on human suffering. Blackrock thanks her for helping “invest” in Ukraine, aka stealing the land and resources after all the fighting age men have been killed in the meat grinder or fled.
Saddening. For the first time I read Simplicius and actually *feel* the futility of all those poor boys who died - fodder, en masse - because America/Israel politicians sacrificed them, running them into the iron wall of The Bear. Lord have mercy.